Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2018, 11:17:42 am



Title: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2018, 11:17:42 am
New Poll: Texas Senator by CNN/SSRS on 2018-10-13 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=48120181013277)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 52%, I: 1%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/16/rel1_tx.pdf)


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: New Frontier on October 16, 2018, 11:19:40 am
Texas continues to be a disappointment to this country.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Brittain33 on October 16, 2018, 11:28:45 am
Sigh.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Dr. RI on October 16, 2018, 11:30:24 am
Looks about right


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 16, 2018, 11:32:54 am
Texas continues to be a disappointment to this country.

lol


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on October 16, 2018, 11:33:18 am
But I thought Cruz was more vulnerable than Heller!!! Anyway, Likely R.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Gass3268 on October 16, 2018, 11:37:13 am
Looks like Beto has a chance to make it closer given he has higher support among registered voters, but obviously not enough to win. Still impressive for a Democrat in Texas, but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

Also Trump's approval is awful here for a Republican, possibility we could be looking at this again in two years.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: yeah_93 on October 16, 2018, 11:46:15 am


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Politician stands with Sanchez on October 16, 2018, 11:52:38 am
Sticking with Cruz +3.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Skunk on October 16, 2018, 11:53:38 am
Texas continues to be a disappointment to this country.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Marianne Williamson on October 16, 2018, 11:57:06 am


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: The Mikado on October 16, 2018, 12:01:17 pm
This poll is a really good example of how effective O'Rourke's campaign is...it has Cruz up by 7 while Abbott's routing by 18 points.

I've said Cruz by 5-7 for a whole year at this point. No reason to change my opinion on that. Where I differ from people on this thread is seeing a Dem down by mid-single digits as a major milestone in Texas' glacial shift, rather than a disappointment.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: IceSpear on October 16, 2018, 12:08:21 pm
Pretty much every decent pollster has shown Cruz ahead by 7-9 points. And with only 3 weeks to go, I don't think O'Rourke has enough time to make up that much ground. Safe Rafael.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: wbrocks67 on October 16, 2018, 12:15:35 pm
RV is +5, so it depends on the LV model. I don't think anyone really knows what the electorate will look like this year.

Frustrating thing is Trump is 41/50 approval among all Texas adults. If only most of them would vote, it would be way easier to go Dem.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 16, 2018, 12:47:40 pm
Yeah, it's pretty clear this race is over. Still, Beto gave it all he could and I look forward to a historic performance. He'll also be building up the enthusiasm and infrastructure that will eventually propel a Democratic victory in Texas.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Pandaguineapig on October 16, 2018, 12:57:14 pm
Not to mention Cnn polls have been overly favorable to Democrats all cycle. Bobby o'Rourke has followed a long line of Texas Democrats who raise insane sums of money from gullible out of state leftists before losing badly and leaving the state


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Gass3268 on October 16, 2018, 01:00:04 pm
Not to mention Cnn polls have been overly favorable to Democrats all cycle. Bobby o'Rourke has followed a long line of Texas Democrats who raise insane sums of money from gullible out of state leftists before losing badly and leaving the state

78% of his donors have from Texas.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: RoboWop on October 16, 2018, 01:08:32 pm
Not to mention Cnn polls have been overly favorable to Democrats all cycle. Bobby o'Rourke has followed a long line of Texas Democrats who raise insane sums of money from gullible out of state leftists before losing badly and leaving the state

78% of his donors have from Texas.

Not a counterpoint.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on October 16, 2018, 01:08:33 pm
Texas continues to be a disappointment to this country.

It is only a disappointment if you had unrealistic expectations. Have sensible expectations and you won't be disappointed so often.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on October 16, 2018, 01:08:33 pm
Beto is continuing to post pretty amazing numbers with White voters in these polls. Cruz is only winning whites 66-33. In a year with Presidential-level non-white turnout, Beto would have a very real prospect of winning if he could post those sort of numbers with whites.

Beto, however, is only winning non-whites by 62-32.

There does seem to be a tendency in polls to sometimes overstate Dem support among whites and underestimate it among non-whites.

However, if the polls are correct on the white voters but incorrect on the non-whites, that seems to me like the most likely way it could potentially be a bit closer than it seems.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: New Frontier on October 16, 2018, 01:21:44 pm
Texas continues to be a disappointment to this country.

It is only a disappointment if you had unrealistic expectations. Have sensible expectations and you won't be disappointed so often.
No, I never had too high expectations but still...Ted Cruz should not hold public office much less be a United States Senator.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Old School Republican on October 16, 2018, 01:31:59 pm


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Old School Republican on October 16, 2018, 01:32:29 pm
Why has this race been polled more than the MO senate race


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 16, 2018, 01:44:29 pm
Why has this race been polled more than the MO senate race

I know, I'm getting sick of this race. I think the national media is obsessed with taking down Cruz.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on October 16, 2018, 01:45:34 pm
Cruz will probably win this by +10 on election day.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: President Johnson on October 16, 2018, 01:47:19 pm
About the margin I expect. Anything between five and eight points.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 16, 2018, 06:40:21 pm
Texas continues to be a disappointment to this country.

It is only a disappointment if you had unrealistic expectations. Have sensible expectations and you won't be disappointed so often.

This is my philosophy for all things in life. It's why I'm so well-adjusted!


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Silurian on October 16, 2018, 06:57:30 pm
Not to mention Cnn polls have been overly favorable to Democrats all cycle. Bobby o'Rourke has followed a long line of Texas Democrats who raise insane sums of money from gullible out of state leftists before losing badly and leaving the state

78% of his donors have from Texas.

Not a counterpoint.

But it's not even worth pointing out. Most of the time when people bring up the difference between out/in state donors, they are criticizing the candidate. In this case, Cruz has raised more from out-of-state donors, so it would be hypocritical to call out only the Democrat for that. And if it's a discussion purely about usefulness, then it's worth noting that it's not like there aren't plenty of Texas donors that don't send money out of state to losing campaigns.

Also, it's not pointless to raise all that money either. What matters is how it is spent. Big campaigns that spend it on organizing and GOTV can leave lasting "infrastructure" in place that can be used over future election cycles by other candidates, one of whom might eventually win. This is particularly important in TX's case, which is a state moving towards Democrats but slower than the party wishes. Running these campaigns might seem futile, but it might help flip Texas sooner than it otherwise would.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on October 17, 2018, 12:08:20 am
Why has this race been polled more than the MO senate race

They prefer to poll the MO race one state senate district at a time.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on October 17, 2018, 12:19:54 am
     Roughly what I expected. I have no idea why Beto generated so much enthusiasm, other than wishful thinking that the Democrats might win a Senate seat in Texas.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Silurian on October 17, 2018, 12:21:51 am
     Roughly what I expected. I have no idea why Beto generated so much enthusiasm, other than wishful thinking that the Democrats might win a Senate seat in Texas.

He's a pretty appealing candidate with a certain cool factor to him too. His rejection of PACs and non-stop live videos is a big part as well.


Title: Re: TX: CNN/SSRS: Sen. Cruz (R) +7
Post by: Cory Booker on October 17, 2018, 01:54:15 am
Early voting is starting. Dems have to minimize losses in the Senate so that they can take it back in 2020, but Toomey and Johnson over performed polls and Beto and Bredesen can as well. As the Kavanaugh bump has climaxed already.