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Title: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: RogueBeaver on October 17, 2018, 06:06:03 AM 47/46. (http://floridapolitics.com/archives/277928-poll-post-michael-andrew-gillum-ron-desantis-deadlocked-rick-scott-narrowly-leads-bill-nelson)Previous poll was a tie at 47.
Title: Re: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: Person Man on October 17, 2018, 06:14:51 AM 47/46. (http://floridapolitics.com/archives/277928-poll-post-michael-andrew-gillum-ron-desantis-deadlocked-rick-scott-narrowly-leads-bill-nelson)Previous poll was a tie at 47. Looks like the smear campaign didn't work against him as well as hoped. Title: Re: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: Person Man on October 17, 2018, 07:06:20 AM 47/46. (http://floridapolitics.com/archives/277928-poll-post-michael-andrew-gillum-ron-desantis-deadlocked-rick-scott-narrowly-leads-bill-nelson)Previous poll was a tie at 47. Looks like the smear campaign didn't work against him as well as hoped. St. Pete is a joke all around. They had Romney +8 and Crist +7 in October of those years I don't even think RCP has them around. Title: Re: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 17, 2018, 08:27:20 AM Gillum doing three points better than Nelson is definitely believable.
Title: Re: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: Xing on October 17, 2018, 10:59:20 AM Not great, but Gillum is still favored, albeit narrowly.
Title: Re: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: auburntiger on October 17, 2018, 11:01:25 AM Both senate and governor races will go down to the wire per usual in this state.
Title: Re: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: MAINEiac4434 on October 17, 2018, 11:22:07 AM De Santis still hasn’t led since the primary.
Title: Re: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: Person Man on October 17, 2018, 11:24:30 AM Both senate and governor races will go down to the wire per usual in this state. Think there could be a recount? Title: Re: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: auburntiger on October 17, 2018, 12:01:46 PM Wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibilities. It has happened before!
+1 gillum and +2 Scott are both believable but we are still well within the MOE. I said on another thread this race will get much closer than Gillum +9. Both parties are guaranteed a 47% floor. Early voting in Orange County starts Monday Title: Re: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 17, 2018, 07:14:16 PM Both senate and governor races will go down to the wire per usual in this state. And I've been scorned so much by it. I really hope, that even if the margins are razor thin, for Gillum/Nelson victories. It would improve my opinion of the state enough to make me want to apologize for all the s*** I've given it on this forum. Title: Re: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: auburntiger on October 17, 2018, 09:47:48 PM Both senate and governor races will go down to the wire per usual in this state. And I've been scorned so much by it. I really hope, that even if the margins are razor thin, for Gillum/Nelson victories. It would improve my opinion of the state enough to make me want to apologize for all the s*** I've given it on this forum. Both races are going to be fascinating to watch. While turnout will be the ultimate factor, I have spoken with quite a few people who are ticket splitting for DeSantis/Nelson. These are moderate voters for Gwen Graham in the primary who think Gillum is a bridge too far ideologically, but believe Scott is a terrible person altogether (red tide is one factor). It’ll be interesting to see if turnout exceeds 2016 - I think it actually might. There are so many cross-currents at play here affecting both races. 1) two centrists running for senate (by Florida standards) 2) two ideologues for governor (by Florida standards) 3) trump’s approval is net +2 (at least that’s the last one I saw) 4) red tide - Everglades Trust endorses DeSantis - does this help DeSantis? 5) Hurricane Michael- does the panhandle turnout drop effectively helping Gillum? 6) Polling- Gillum never led in any primary polling; DeSantis has yet to lead in GE polling- can we trust the polls are correct now? Title: Re: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: ON Progressive on October 17, 2018, 10:11:37 PM Both senate and governor races will go down to the wire per usual in this state. And I've been scorned so much by it. I really hope, that even if the margins are razor thin, for Gillum/Nelson victories. It would improve my opinion of the state enough to make me want to apologize for all the s*** I've given it on this forum. Both races are going to be fascinating to watch. While turnout will be the ultimate factor, I have spoken with quite a few people who are ticket splitting for DeSantis/Nelson. These are moderate voters for Gwen Graham in the primary who think Gillum is a bridge too far ideologically, but believe Scott is a terrible person altogether (red tide is one factor). It’ll be interesting to see if turnout exceeds 2016 - I think it actually might. There are so many cross-currents at play here affecting both races. 1) two centrists running for senate (by Florida standards) 2) two ideologues for governor (by Florida standards) 3) trump’s approval is net +2 (at least that’s the last one I saw) 4) red tide - Everglades Trust endorses DeSantis - does this help DeSantis? 5) Hurricane Michael- does the panhandle turnout drop effectively helping Gillum? 6) Polling- Gillum never led in any primary polling; DeSantis has yet to lead in GE polling- can we trust the polls are correct now? So they think Gillum is too liberal so they're voting for...a Trump clone? Jesus Christ, moderates are useless sometimes. Title: Re: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1 Post by: TarHeelDem on October 18, 2018, 11:43:59 PM 47/46. (http://floridapolitics.com/archives/277928-poll-post-michael-andrew-gillum-ron-desantis-deadlocked-rick-scott-narrowly-leads-bill-nelson)Previous poll was a tie at 47. Looks like the smear campaign didn't work against him as well as hoped. St. Pete is a joke all around. They had Romney +8 and Crist +7 in October of those years |