Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: wbrocks67 on October 17, 2018, 06:53:36 am



Title: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: wbrocks67 on October 17, 2018, 06:53:36 am
Blackburn (R) 47%
Bredesen (D) 44%

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-statepoll/republican-has-narrow-lead-in-tennessee-u-s-senate-race-poll-idUSKCN1MR1EB?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Former President Weatherboy1102 on October 17, 2018, 06:55:34 am
tilt/lean R. LOL at people saying this was safe R


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Councilor Zaybay on October 17, 2018, 07:40:31 am
This is reuters.....


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: MillennialModerate on October 17, 2018, 07:54:21 am
tilt/lean R. LOL at people saying this was safe R

It is Safe R.

Iím sorry but I truly think Texas is more in play than this race is.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: KingSweden on October 17, 2018, 08:21:14 am
This is reuters.....


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 17, 2018, 08:25:44 am
tilt/lean R. LOL at people saying this was safe R

I thought Reuters was a bad pollster? (it is)


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Politician on October 17, 2018, 08:27:31 am
But Atlas told me this race was already over...


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: IceSpear on October 17, 2018, 09:45:24 am
But Atlas told me this race was already over...

It is. This is a Reuters/Ipsos poll, lol.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: pbrower2a on October 17, 2018, 09:59:14 am
Reuters is objective news-gathering. It looks like an outlier... but so where 5the polls that suggested that Republicans were winning in 2016.

Change in political reality in the form of polling appears first as outliers.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard on October 17, 2018, 10:06:12 am
tilt/lean R. LOL at people saying this was safe R

Yeah, everybody knows how Dem leaning Tennessee undecideds are.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Tender Branson on October 17, 2018, 10:38:19 am
I think that's where the race is at the moment.

With leaners it's 49-46.

Blackburn wins Rs by 89-8, Bredesen Dems by 94-4 and Indys by 63-21.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on October 17, 2018, 10:40:05 am
Yeah, sure Bredesen will do 4 points better than Rosen ::). Honestly, it really doesn't seem like the pollsters know what is going on or what kind of turnout to expect.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: MycroftCZ on October 17, 2018, 11:01:14 am
THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Tender Branson on October 17, 2018, 11:03:46 am
THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Technocracy Timmy on October 17, 2018, 11:05:00 am
Atlas in sheer desperation to prove that an unwinnable race is winnable is embracing a Reuters poll.

Letís see how a state with more white evangelicals than Alabama and far less black voters treats ya.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: IceSpear on October 17, 2018, 11:06:37 am
THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

()


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on October 17, 2018, 11:09:05 am
LOL @ anyone changing their opinion based on a reuters poll.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 17, 2018, 11:11:50 am
THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

()

Donít bother him with facts.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Dr. RI on October 17, 2018, 11:13:08 am
Can someone fill me in on the hate for Reuters/Ipsos polls? They don't produce "consistent" results, but that's not a mark of a bad pollster at all.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Tender Branson on October 17, 2018, 11:14:44 am
THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: MycroftCZ on October 17, 2018, 11:21:14 am
THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.

Exactly, this race has been consistently close, other than a flawed NYT poll and the Axios poll, which was conducted right after the Kavanaugh mess. Bredesen is running a strong campaign and Blackburn is turning off a lot of moderates and Independents. Blackburn has the advantage, but it's still a Tossup, maybe Tilt R, in my book.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Politician on October 17, 2018, 11:21:43 am
THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Don’t bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.

Exactly, this race has been consistently close, other than a flawed NYT poll and the Axios poll, which was conducted right after the Kavanaugh mess. Bredesen is running a strong campaign and Blackburn is turning off a lot of moderates and Independents. Blackburn has the advantage, but it's still a Tossup, maybe Tilt R, in my book.
Shh, don't confuse IceSpear, Technocracy Timmy and MT Treasurer with facts.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: TarHeelDem on October 17, 2018, 11:23:11 am
Looks about right. Tilt R.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on October 17, 2018, 11:26:28 am
Wish I could say that Atlas is the only place where people think Democrats have a better chance of winning freaking Tennessee than Nevada, but I know that's not the case. I'll say more than the opposite of what I say about Nevada. If Bredesen somehow wins, Republicans are losing in a blue tsunami so big that they might actually lose about 100 House seats.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: IceSpear on October 17, 2018, 11:27:15 am
THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.

What kind of Bernie Math is this? All the polls of this race in the last month, in chronological order:

Blackburn +14 (Siena)
Blackburn +3 (Reuters)
Blackburn +8 (YouGov)
Blackburn +5 (FOX)
Tie (SurveyMonkey)


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Politician on October 17, 2018, 11:29:21 am
THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.

What kind of Bernie Math is this? All the polls of this race in the last month, in chronological order:

Blackburn +14 (Siena)
Blackburn +3 (Reuters)
Blackburn +8 (YouGov)
Blackburn +5 (FOX)
Tie (SurveyMonkey)
He was talking about removing these two polls, which are pretty obvious outliers.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Tender Branson on October 17, 2018, 11:32:13 am
THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.

What kind of Bernie Math is this? All the polls of this race in the last month, in chronological order:

Blackburn +14 (Siena)
Blackburn +3 (Reuters)
Blackburn +8 (YouGov)
Blackburn +5 (FOX)
Tie (SurveyMonkey)

There's also the Bredesen internal poll, +1 for Blackburn vs. Bredesen +2 a month ago, showing no major movement.

And CNN and Vox Populi had him ahead as well.

+ I also take into account the Cygnal (R) poll of young voters, which Bredesen leads by double digits, assuming a close race as well overall.

If we average all these polls, Blackburn is only ahead in the 1-4% range, well within the MoE.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on October 17, 2018, 11:32:51 am
Can someone fill me in on the hate for Reuters/Ipsos polls? They don't produce "consistent" results, but that's not a mark of a bad pollster at all.

They are an online pollster using a panel (partially self-selected). Online polls are generally not the best.

But, on top of that...

You are right that having some variation in results is not normally the mark of a bad pollster, but with an online panel you should have much less variation than with a phone poll, and you are not subject to response bias in the same way.

So the fact that they have had so much volatility despite using an online panel is an indication of junkiness in that case, whereas it wouldn't be so much for a phone pollster.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: IceSpear on October 17, 2018, 11:36:06 am
THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.

What kind of Bernie Math is this? All the polls of this race in the last month, in chronological order:

Blackburn +14 (Siena)
Blackburn +3 (Reuters)
Blackburn +8 (YouGov)
Blackburn +5 (FOX)
Tie (SurveyMonkey)
He was talking about removing these two polls, which are pretty obvious outliers.

You could just as easily say that this and the SurveyMonkey poll are outliers.

Regardless, even if you assume the race is currently Blackburn +5 or something, this is in a heavily Republican state where Democrats tend to overpoll and where "undecideds" almost always break Republican. Bredesen's trajectory is clearly downward and Blackburn's is clearly upward. The race is over.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on October 17, 2018, 11:38:02 am
So the delusion train seems to have departed from TX-SEN and is now making a stop in TN-SEN.

That it would do so based on a reuters poll is particularly strange, because the most recent reuters poll in TX had Beto up by 2 points.

So if you are deluded enough to think that Bredesen will win TN-SEN, you should certainly be deluded enough to think that Beto will win TX-SEN, and yet in the TX-SEN poll threads, everyone is now resigned to realistic pessimism, whereas in the TN-SEN polling threads some still cling to false hope.

Strange.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: IceSpear on October 17, 2018, 11:39:13 am
THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.

What kind of Bernie Math is this? All the polls of this race in the last month, in chronological order:

Blackburn +14 (Siena)
Blackburn +3 (Reuters)
Blackburn +8 (YouGov)
Blackburn +5 (FOX)
Tie (SurveyMonkey)

There's also the Bredesen internal poll, +1 for Blackburn vs. Bredesen +2 a month ago, showing no major movement.

And CNN and Vox Populi had him ahead as well.

+ I also take into account the Cygnal (R) poll of young voters, which Bredesen leads by double digits, assuming a close race as well overall.

If we average all these polls, Blackburn is only ahead in the 1-4% range, well within the MoE.

CNN and Vox Populi are from over a month ago, completely irrelevant. As are internal polls.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on October 17, 2018, 11:39:25 am
Vox Populi had him ahead as well.

OMG (some) people are citing Vox Populi with a straight face.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: IceSpear on October 17, 2018, 11:42:15 am
So the delusion train seems to have departed from TX-SEN and is now making a stop in TN-SEN.

That it would do so based on a reuters poll is particularly strange, because the most recent reuters poll in TX had Beto up by 2 points.

So if you are deluded enough to think that Bredesen will win TN-SEN, you should certainly be deluded enough to think that Beto will win TX-SEN, and yet in the TX-SEN poll threads, everyone is now resigned to realistic pessimism, whereas in the TN-SEN polling threads some still cling to false hope.

Strange.

I think at this point people will grasp at any possible straw to pretend Dems still have a chance at taking the Senate. Once more Tennessee polls show Blackburn dominating it'll suddenly become "Hey guys, we haven't gotten a North Dakota poll in a while...I bet Heitkamp has surged!"


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on October 17, 2018, 12:12:00 pm
You could just as easily say that this and the SurveyMonkey poll are outliers.

Regardless, even if you assume the race is currently Blackburn +5 or something, this is in a heavily Republican state where Democrats tend to overpoll and where "undecideds" almost always break Republican. Bredesen's trajectory is clearly downward and Blackburn's is clearly upward. The race is over.

Exactly. If the polling average in TN-SEN returns to something like Bredesen +5, then maybe we can talk about Bredesen having a realistic chance to win. But even if the race were tied (which it is not), that does not mean Bredesen has a 50-50 chance to win - it means that Blackburn will more than likely win.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: IceSpear on October 17, 2018, 10:23:22 pm
Hey guys, we got a new chart.

()

I'm not sure I've ever seen a prettier collapse in a decade of poll watching.


Title: Re: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
Post by: IceSpear on November 13, 2018, 04:47:21 pm
Junk poll!