Talk Elections

McSally (R): 49%
Sinema (D): 45%

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-azsen-3.html

Looks like the trendline goes towards McSally. The sample size of 299 LVs is relatively small. Toss-up.

Not shocked. Arizona is turning into Arizona after the primaries are over and the Democrat said stupid anti-American stuff and talked smack about the people of the state she is running in.

The poll isnt even done yet! These go to 800 respondents!

They haven’t finished the poll yet, I believe.

They haven’t. Not even close either.

The poll is literally only 37% done. Lets wait for the whole entire thing.

McSally only pulled ahead because Trump's approval is inflated here. It's now +6, whereas when Sinema was +6, it was about -1 or -2. It's not +6 in AZ.

Which means that McSally (+4) isn't even matching Trump's approval (+6)

Sure, but 538 has that one on already. Sinema has a lead among RVs, though.

yeah, they do that with all of the polls. They entered in TX senate poll in with 50 respondents. They routinely update it until the results are there.

Edit: you should always wait for the poll to be completed before making conclusions. Looking at the poll so far, Hispanics are tied, so it would be smart for more people to call in so the crosstabs can get closer to reality.

Modifying the title to reflect the poll is incomplete. Hopefully OP can update when the final number is in or someone can ping me to remind me to do it.

Knowing the sampling trend of these Siena polls, I'd expect McSally +9 when the poll is complete.

Thank you. I'll check that out frequently anyway.

Yes, the Poll is incomplete. That being said there are some notable things to look at.

By a 52-41 margin Voters say that they want a Republican controlled Senate. This matters a lot.

In NV that's 49-48 Democrat
In TN that's 58-34 Republican
In TX that's 52-40 Republican

Voters clearly are willing to give Democrats the House but not the Senate.

Or that shows these Sienna polls are too R friendly

No, they ain't. If you look at the Congressional District Polls by them in most they have a Democrat ahead.

Considering Dems are up double digits in most polling that’s hardly surprising or vindication

1. Why did you post this when it’s incomplete? 2. It’s probably going to be McSally +12 in the end because these NYT Live polls are so damn R-friendly.

Aren't they polling between 500 and 800 people for the Senate races ?

So, 300 doesn't mean a lot.

And besides, Siena only has a track record of polling house races in the NY area, so I would take any other results with scepticism ...

Even with the (poll is incomplete) part, you know people are going to be drawing lots of conclusions already.

I'm confused why Trump approval in many of these state polls is so at odds with the national polls. If Trump is -10 nationwide, there's no way he should be +6 in AZ, or -1 in NV, or even +7 in TX.

Trump is not plus 6 net approval in Arizona.

Overinflation of small demographics to make up for poor sampling of said groups.

These polls are garbage. The race is a tossup.

They're probably assuming that turnout will look like it has (at least in terms or race and age) in previous midterms.

They do list the results of many different turnout models.  Among "the types of people who voted in 2014", McSally is +9.

If Trump's approval rating is like 20% in CA/NY/MA/MD-DC-NoVa it could really skew the numbers.

Delete this post, please wait until the poll is completed. Would you guys have liked it if I posted the NYT TX/TN polls at moments when the dem was ahead? No - you are jumping the gun in the worst way possible.

I considered deleting it, but given that it was driving discussion and the OP made an honest mistake, and the poll will close soon enough, I am experimenting with keeping it open and having it transition to be the final poll thread.

I *do* think active discussion of these polls fits best in the megathread on the Congressional board for Upshot polls.

Unfortunately, they have an issue with R oversampling in a lot of these polls IMO

Posting incomplete polls should not be allowed. The poll clearly states "continues soon".

Yeah, there has been some ongoing discussion of the AZ poll in the megathread. IMO this belongs there and it would make sense to merge this thread into that, it will just confuse people to keep it here.

...back to

Sinema 47

McSally 47

LOL

This incomplete poll was apparently too big for the NYT/Siena poll thread?

This poll is pretty much turning out just as I expected so far. Sinema started with unrealistically high numbers in key groups but the poll shifted to about even as whites moved to the Republicans and non-whites moved to the Democrats.

Things usually level out somewhat by this point, so the final results probably won't be too different.  If I had to guess, I would say it ends up around McSally +2.

It started out pretty strange with Sinema up big with age 65+ voters and McSally up big with hispanic voters.

The numbers moved to McSally + 1, still incomplete. Therefore, I'm locking this thread.