Talk Elections

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/tn-elections/2018/10/18/tennessee-senate-poll-phil-bredesen-slim-edge-over-marsha-blackburn-vanderbilt/1675126002/

Phil 44
Marsha 43

Their past polls:

Trump +11
Romney +7
Romney +3

Junk.

JUNK

When were these polls taken?

That's a comically high level of undecideds two weeks out

No Blackburn plus 10

So Blackburn probably wins by 10-15 in the end?

The 2016 one was conducted from late September to early October. The national average at the time ranged from Clinton +1 to Clinton +3.

The 2012 ones were taken in February and May. The national average at the time ranged from a tie to Obama +6.

Not that it really matters. Those margins were completely unrealistic for Tennessee during any point of the 2012/2016 campaigns, even right after the pussygrabber tape.

#cantjettisonthebredesen

Big Difference this time though is that they seem to be working with CNN's pollster, SSRS, to conduct this poll this time, so doesn't that make this almost like a CNN/SSRS poll in a way?

Good catch, I didn't notice that.

This is actually a decent poll for Bredesen then considering the circumstances, but not really since he was up 5 in their last poll.

Meh. Need confirmation from a second poll to see if close.

It's not too bad if there was an actual Kavanaugh senate bump that swung the race towards Blackburn.

SSRS had Bredesen +5 about a month ago, so it makes sense that he dropped off a bit. Although that poll was like 50-45, so there is way more undecideds this time.

Sorry, not buying it.

Its highly possible that, while Kavanaugh hit hard in ND, TN, and other states, the issue itself has already receded, as can be seen in others states/the GCB. Though I am still in the lean R camp, there is an outside chance of a Bredesen comeback, though I personally think its highly unlikely.

That Blackburn woman simply can't shake off the Phil ...

13% undecided at this point is silly. Junk.

Polls showing Blackburn with a 10 plus lead weren't accurate

No. It's this poll that is not accurate.

I believe they are using a different firm than they did in the past.

If this is an SSRS poll, this could be the difference between the race being called for Blackburn once polls closes to not having a senator-elect until the following day.

Yep, this is a SSRS poll. Perhaps the race isnt over....still lean R, but not a likely or safe R race.

I'd say this race stays as Lean R.

EDIT: Just to clarify, it's because of the average of polls, not because of this one in particular.

Guys, this race is nothing else than a pure tie.

The wild swings and outliers only indicate that pollsters have absolutely no clue what is going on there.

Bredesen is a very popular elder statesman and there is nothing to suggest he would lose by more than 2 or 3 points and it's more likely that he wins the thing.

Also they have Middle Tennessee as Central Tennessee, a big faux pas in the Volunteer State.

Even if accurate, this would fall under the category of that Adam always complains about regarding Southern suburban voters coming home in the end. In which case this would point to Bredesen not getting much more then he is polling while Blackburn gets most of the undecideds.

This kind of reminds me of Illinois 2010 where Kirk would lead 40-38 in several polls, but many were very uncertain of him actually being ahead until he started polling 46% and above, and then he just barely won.

Not sure why you would draw the conclusion from various polls that (while swinging wildy) on average show a GOP lead, the race is a tie and the Democrat is likely to win. Especially since this is TN.

Blackburn is definitely favored, but this race is not over.

Although this poll ostensibly has Bredesen ahead, we should note that there are enough undecided voters in this poll such that his net vote share is less than 50%, so he is still vulnerable to being overtaken. If we see more polls showing him ahead in the coming days, then he is probably in good shape; if polls in the coming days show him behind, then he is probably in trouble.

Bredesen still could will win

Well yes, he has a roughly 13% chance by my estimates.

I don’t think anyone is seriously denying that Bredesen could win in a massive Democratic tsunami (I have it as Toss-up myself, btw), it’s just a question of whether you believe 2018 will be such an election or not. Unlike the rest of this forum, I’m not convinced it will be, at least not yet.

How big of an election do you think it will be for Democrats? Say, going by the House popular vote.

I am.

Even if there's a tsunami, it's clearly built off urban and suburban areas. It's not going to be enough for Tennessee, which is very rural and has more white evangelicals and less black people than Alabama (and the Republican candidate isn't a pedophile.)

The rest of the forum isn't really convinced either, the average Atlas prediction shows Republicans keeping the Senate (and therefore winning TN, and no Dem Tsunami).

My guess is that the most reasonable estimates put us at 48-52 senate, 225-110 house.

West Tennessee -- Memphis, Jackson.

Middle Tennessee -- Nashville.

East Tennessee -- Knoxville, Oak Ridge, and Chattanooga.

Tennessee outside of those cities is very rural.

I'm still flabbergasted that even TN would elect Marsha Blackburn to the US Senate (and especially over a popular 2 term Governor- that people like and trust).   

This assumes Tennessee is the tipping point, when it's quite possible that O'Rourke pulls an upset or ends up doing better than expected against Cruz. Remember Kander ended up being ahead of Feingold after all.

I have a lot of mixed reactions to this poll... excited that Bredesen leads but these numbers seem really low 19 days out and I wonder, if that percent of undecides if true, how many are Republicans who like Bredesen more than Blackburn and how many are Democrats who don't like Bredesen because of the Kavanaugh support...

I'd just guess this is a bit of an outlier and Blackburn is up by mid-to-high single digits.

I still don't Think Bredesen is done but I Think you could call this Lean R if you're optimistic and Likely R if you're not.

TN isn't that conservative and it's similar to MO.  They overwhelmely supported Trump, but can support centrist candidates like 2x elected Bredesen. He can pull off the upset

For what it's worth, TN undecideds usually make their mind up a lot sooner (and most polls of the state in past cycles have been just garbage, rather than indicating a late surge to the GOP). It's a bit different than the rest of "the South" - which I pretty much just consider to be GA, SC, MS & AL at this point. :D

I told Jambles months ago that if Bredesen was doing things right, the undecided pool here will stay relatively large until the end - because if he has a shot, it's going to take a lot of Bredesen '06/GOP-leaners to make it happen, and they're gonna be noncommittal until the end - so I don't necessarily think that a large undecided group means the poll is wrong or that they're a lock for Blackburn. The fact that Bredesen has held on for so long sort of reaffirms my original belief on this.

There was obviously movement in TN post-Kavanaugh, but I genuinely believe a lot of it was pissy Democrats protesting his proclamation of support for Bart. They're not going to vote against him or sit at home, though.

There will be upsets, should there be a full blown wave of 33 Democratic seats in the House.  TN, TX and OK and KS and OH Gov will be upsets, just like Toomey and Johnson winning in 2016, were upsets.

Also Johnson City in the east. But that kind of proves the point as Johnson City is a highly Republican City.

Am I detecting a Swift surge? Nah. We're all going to get Blackburned on November 6.

Can't jettison the Bredesen.

It's laughable to consider Johnson City a city even.

I double-checked Wikipedia before replying, and you're right. I thought it was much bigger. Though it appears Oakridge should not be on that list either.

Why is Tennessee still colored blue on Dave's compiled poll map, and not gray?

()

Because the Blackburn woman is still leading by an average of 5%, despite Bredesen taking the lead in this poll.

Blame the outlier-Siena poll, which is messing up the average in favour of Blackburn.

Lol just lol. Giant junk poll. Bigger chances have beto in TX (and those are second to none) than bredesen in TN.

Strange. I always thought in order to be colored red, blue or green, all of the three latest polls must have been in favor of one certain party/candidate. ???

Females trail men in polls. And Diane Black was losing to Karl Dean before Lee was nominated