Talk Elections

https://www.dataorbital.com/the-blog/new-survey-sinema-leads-mcsally-in-latest-survey

Regular: Sinema 46.5, McSally 41.1, Green 2.9 (Sinema +5.4)

D surge: Sinema 47.9, McSally 39.8, Green 2.9 (Sinema +8.1)

D-Poll, nuff said.

Data Orbital has a mean reverted bias of D+0.1...

They have Douchey (R) up by 16 points in the Governor race ...

They called both statewide races right in 2016 and got the margin of victory right, too.

There is no way McSally is down 5 and Ducey up 16. No way.

Sinema +5 looks about right as of right now. Arizona was one of the likeliest D pickups a long time ago and that hasn't changed.

Yeah I think this is junky.

Their last poll was Sinema +4, so this isn't exactly good news for McSally.

Yes way. Ticket splitting is alive and well. If you think an 21 point difference is a lot, take a look at Maryland and Massachusetts.

Not really, thats what most polls have shown as well. I believe the Fox Poll showed Ducey up 20 and Sinema up 2, so thats an even bigger margin.

No one cares what a hack like you thinks. You've been concern trolling on every post I've seen.

Still tossup, but encouraging for Sinema.

Honestly, every Poll who has that Baby face Sinema ahead is bad.

I say it again: Sinema wins because she has a good look and is pretty. Arizonans seem to like that.

Her Policies & stands on the issues, constant flip-flopping around meanwhile is bad for the State.

...

Do you know what concern trolling is

This poll seems a bit off from other results lately but it’s definitely a good result for Sinema.

Awesome! Make Arizona (Non-Atlas) blue!

Sinema's really holding on to a solid lead here.

I get you're not the brightest, but it's best if you keep your thoughts to yourself

Something what Mark Twain said...

Finally, people are using mean-reverted bias instead of house effect! Hopefully it catches on. 

I thought 2016 was in the mold of a LimoLiberal. Clearly I was wrong.

McSally isn’t more likely to win than Mike Braun.

God bless you for saving me the effort of editing out a moderated obscenity from quoted posts.

I've gotta say, I don't like this trend of Democrats doing better in lower-quality polls than in higher-quality ones. Still, throw it in the average.

Indeed, it is liberal trend. If you look at this link, most of the Data Orbital polls released in Arizona in 2016 showed Trump leading by less than 4 percentage points and there is even one of them showing Clinton ahead by 1. And at the end, Trump won Arizona by 4.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Arizona

Their last poll had Trump ahead by 8, but it's a very liberal pollster because I said so!

Also, it's a pollster that literally does GOP internals. Hardly a liberal pollster.

Is it enough to account for +5, though? By the liberal bias metric, that would mean Sinema is still likely up (though not by much). 

I’m fine with McSally losing, she’s easily my least favorite Republican Senate candidate in a competitive race this year.

 This poll didn’t even talk about early voting. Because according to early vote totals in Arizona, the GOP is ahead by 27 000 votes among early voters and is also ahead in the Maricopa County by 26 000 votes.

http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics (http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics)

Let's say that averages R +1.5. Arizona was R+3.5. If the poll is D+5, the bias wouldn't be enough to get under D+1 or D+2. I'm willing to unskew but not by much.

I thought only red avatars unskewed polls, lolz.

Anyway, still a Toss-Up, but I’d probably rather be Sinema than McSally.

Data Orbital typicaly does internals for the GOP so I really wouldnt want to call them a liberal pollster. Polls they have done are good.



You bring up some good points in regards to their 2016 polling. I will say the poll showing clinton with a lead in early October was probably accurate. In AZ Clinton was doing very well in the weeks leading up to early voting, so I wouldn't doubt that se was actually leading in our state. Once voting started Trump started picking up speed in AZ.

their October 29-30th poll is about accurate with the margin. and early voting was over by that point which likely reflects in that poll.

Surely you wouldn't rather have had her two jokes of primary opponents, right?

Here we go...I told you so.

AZ Pollster Data Orbital admit their Poll last week showing Sinema ahead by 5 was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/ (http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/)

Well, I was the first one who never believe in this Sinema + 5 crap.

Their model was +9 GOP while the current electorate is +11 GOP.

Looks like Sinema could still have the lead, just smaller than +5.

Remember AZ-08 had a +20 GOP (48-27 GOP) mail-in advatage but Debbie Lesko only ended up winning by 4.8.

AZ-08 just as easily could of been a fluke

Hillary Clinton also won a decent amount of Arizona republicans & independents

Have you read the Article. Their Pollster admitted the AZ Senate Race "Leans R" at this Point with new EV Data. Yes, Hillary won Indies but not by almost 20 Points like "Data Orbital" was suggesting in their Poll.

And what you fail to comprehend is that Sinema has this lead even while their polling sample has a GOP advantage of 9%.

I didn't see anything in the article that said the Senate races "Leans R". Besides, you are reading far too much into early voting totals. It could be that Republicans are burning up most of their overall vote in early voting.

AZ08 will have close to or the same turnout in the general election as in the special election. The same people got ballots mailed to them and the same people will mail them back.

Then you better read this...

"Although many have the race in the “tossup” category, Khalaf thinks the race seems to be leaning to the right because of the turnout numbers."

No, Sinema didn't have a lead to begin with.

You put "Lean R" in quotes which implied that the article specifically stated that. But you seem to be emotionally invested in winning this race, so post whatever makes you feel better.

Considering you have that username, you should know better than to try and read too much into the early vote (FL-2016, NC-2016, GA-06-2017, MT-AL-2017, etc.).

Quite the oppsite it. You Democrats can never admit that you were wrong her after gloating about this Poll for 48 Hours last week like "Data Orbital" is best, etc.

Nobody was wrong, she has lead in most credible polls or been close. You are too caught up looking at early numbers which more often than not are faulty are predicting elections. Independents will play a big part in deciding the race and Sinema will certainly get Republican votes.

Trump is right: Fake Polls, Fake News Media.

The pollster is wrong to think that, though. Anyone who paid attention to the AZ-08 EV would know. The Arizona EV is wonky. Reps were up like 20% in EV yet Lesko only won by 4.