Talk Elections

44% Janet Mills (D)
36% Shawn Moody (R)
  8% Terry Hayes (I)
  2% Alan Caron (I)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf

Collins vote to affirm Kavanaugh has damaged Moody's chances

Glad we’re at least getting a little more data on this race. I might move this to Lean D.

If I could vote for Janet Mills I would - whether or not you agree with her policies she just seems like a stand up person. Maine is going to be lucky to have her undo the LePage legacy.

Polling of ME-02 (admittedly the more conservative half of the state) shows that Collins's vote is approved by a wide margin. It's hard to imagine that it would be as radically opposed in ME-01, which would be necessary for it to have any negative effect on statewide Republicans.

This has nothing to do with Collins and everything to do with LePage.

But, Pingree is gonna challenge Collins in 2020, and most likely win

Still a Toss-up for now, but Mills is probably slightly favored at this point.

Also lol@Kavanaugh dooming Collins, her favorability in this poll is +30.1%.

She doesn't have a challenger yet, and we will see about that when Pingree announces a challenger to her

Holt shit she’s actually up by 8

The NYT sample seemed Republican leaning (it actually polled more Republicans and Democrats still have a registration advantage there).

Mills leading the 2nd district is probably good news for Golden

Lean D, closer to Likely than Tossup. I realistically don't see this one going for the Rs. It's not guaranteed like IL, NM, or MI, but a Moody win is highly likely IMO.

Unless there’s some kind of crazy herding going on in think Mills is up by 8, folks

*nods excitedly*

Moody has not united Republicans (I guess joining the party a few days before you announce your campaign isn’t good strategy), and Democrats are not defecting their candidate.

What is it, the fourth poll where she's up by exactly 8? That's odd.

Third, but they've all been released consecutively and in the last few weeks.

Slingshot Strategies, a Hayes internal, found Mills to be at 41 with Moody at 33, Hayes at 10 and Caron at 2.

Change Research found Mills at 52 with Moody at 44 in the H2H, and apparently didn't poll the independents.

And now Pan Atlantic.

Even if Mills is in fact up by 8, you should see different poll results just by virtue of random variance (let alone the fact that they were designed so differently).

PanAtlantic predicted a LePage 7 point margin in 2014. LePage ended up winning by 5.

https://twitter.com/stevemistler/status/1053467889737613312

This might be the Pan Atlantic might be the Marquette of Maine.

Great poll!

I'd feel a lot better about this race if it had IRV though.

Wow, it is actually Lean D

Perhaps Mills wasn't such a bad candidate after all.

Atlas assumes anyone with a vagina is a bad candidate.

Seriously, notice whenever Atlas is bashing someone's "candidate quality", it is almost always a woman. The only exceptions are for over the top offensively bad male candidates like Roy Moore, Bob Menendez, etc.

Ex: Jacky Rosen is a bad candidate because she has a bad haircut and is uninspiring. Donna Shalala is a bad candidate because she doesn't speak Spanish. Randy Bryce is a great candidate despite his multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, delinquent child support payments, etc. because he's a #populist <3 white man.

Wait until the 2020 primaries and then you'll see the same thing x10

This entire thread x 1000

Dang. On an unrelated note, I just looked at the Wikipedia page for this race and Moody's picture looks like a mugshot lol

Given that the average female candidate under-performs the average male candidate by 1-2 points, it's not an inherently wrong position in general terms. Just imagine how different things might have been with Howard Clinton winning the PV by 3-4 points.

Moody’s actually turned out to be a shit candidate. Mills has done an excellent job uniting the left (her featuring Betsy Sweet whenever she can is certainly a positive in that regard), much better than I expected. Hayes running to the right also helped. She’s also come off really well in debates, making me wonder if she got some professional help there, as she was kind of shit at debates during the primary.

Moody has really failed to effectively attack Mills and her tenure as AG. He could’ve concern-trolled about her stance on water rights, which the tribes are still incensed about, and he didn’t. He could’ve accused her of politicizing the office in her vigorous battles against LePage, and didn’t. His entire schtick has been “muh taxes.” He's also become distracted by Hayes’s right-leaning candidacy, and now has to fight her off to keep from dropping even more.

Mills also runs more ads than Moody, and hers are (largely) positive — or at least I’ve seen her run positive ads, and I haven’t seen Moody run one.

So half of this is Mills being a better candidate than we thought, and the other half is Moody being an abysmal candidate.

To my larger point, this is from a friend of mine:

https://twitter.com/aknight__47/status/1054773435690348549?s=21

Moody hasn’t done a good job reaching out to the right. Hayes and Caron are inept.