|
Title: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 21, 2018, 12:54:23 AM http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-governor-s-race-poll-star-tribune-mpr-news-tim-walz-jeff-johnson/497958991/
Walz 45 Johnson 39 Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: Tender Branson on October 21, 2018, 12:58:35 AM It should be noted that Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA always underestimate Dems in MN in Dem wave years by about 5-10 points.
So, Walz wins by about 10-15 in the end and Smith by at least 10-15 as well. Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: IceSpear on October 21, 2018, 10:41:36 AM It should be noted that Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA always underestimate Dems in MN in Dem wave years by about 5-10 points. So, Walz wins by about 10-15 in the end and Smith by at least 10-15 as well. I was curious about this so I went to check. 2016: Both overestimated Dems 2014: Both were spot on 2012: SUSA overestimated Dems, Mason Dixon overestimated Reps 2010: SUSA was spot on, Mason Dixon didn't have a poll 2008: Both overestimated Reps 2006: Both were pretty close to the mark Certainly doesn't seem to be any consistent trend there. Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 21, 2018, 10:44:35 AM It should be noted that Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA always underestimate Dems in MN in Dem wave years by about 5-10 points. So, Walz wins by about 10-15 in the end and Smith by at least 10-15 as well. lol Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: IceSpear on October 21, 2018, 10:45:48 AM It should be noted that Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA always underestimate Dems in MN in Dem wave years by about 5-10 points. So, Walz wins by about 10-15 in the end and Smith by at least 10-15 as well. I was curious about this so I went to check. 2016: Both overestimated Dems 2014: Both were spot on 2012: SUSA overestimated Dems, Mason Dixon overestimated Reps 2010: SUSA was spot on, Mason Dixon didn't have a poll 2008: Both overestimated Reps 2006: Both were pretty close to the mark Certainly doesn't seem to be any consistent trend there. Literally one example in the past decade does not a trend make. And the fact that you actually believe Nevada polls makes it even funnier that you of all people are arguing this. Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 21, 2018, 10:46:56 AM Walz will win by 10-15.
Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: Gass3268 on October 21, 2018, 02:17:44 PM This poll doesn't mesh with the RGA pulling out all their money here.
Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: IceSpear on October 21, 2018, 03:10:13 PM This poll doesn't mesh with the RGA pulling out all their money here. My guess is that Walz wins by more than 6, but even if he doesn't, it's pretty clear why the RGA would pull their money. For one, they're butthurt that their anointed candidate Pawlenty lost the primary. Secondly, 6 is still a pretty big gap to close in a state that even voted for Hillary and hasn't voted for a Republican statewide in ages. If they see it as unwinnable, it doesn't really matter whether Walz is ahead by 6 or 16. And third, they're playing so much defense this year that they'd rather focus on prospects where the money could actually make a difference. Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: Gass3268 on October 21, 2018, 03:15:17 PM This poll doesn't mesh with the RGA pulling out all their money here. My guess is that Walz wins by more than 6, but even if he doesn't, it's pretty clear why the RGA would pull their money. For one, they're butthurt that their anointed candidate Pawlenty lost the primary. Secondly, 6 is still a pretty big gap to close in a state that even voted for Hillary and hasn't voted for a Republican statewide in ages. If they see it as unwinnable, it doesn't really matter whether Walz is ahead by 6 or 16. And third, they're playing so much defense this year that they'd rather focus on prospects where the money could actually make a difference. All good points Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: KingSweden on October 21, 2018, 03:18:06 PM This poll doesn't mesh with the RGA pulling out all their money here. My guess is that Walz wins by more than 6, but even if he doesn't, it's pretty clear why the RGA would pull their money. For one, they're butthurt that their anointed candidate Pawlenty lost the primary. Secondly, 6 is still a pretty big gap to close in a state that even voted for Hillary and hasn't voted for a Republican statewide in ages. If they see it as unwinnable, it doesn't really matter whether Walz is ahead by 6 or 16. And third, they're playing so much defense this year that they'd rather focus on prospects where the money could actually make a difference. All good points Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on October 21, 2018, 03:26:27 PM This poll doesn't mesh with the RGA pulling out all their money here. My guess is that Walz wins by more than 6, but even if he doesn't, it's pretty clear why the RGA would pull their money. For one, they're butthurt that their anointed candidate Pawlenty lost the primary. Secondly, 6 is still a pretty big gap to close in a state that even voted for Hillary and hasn't voted for a Republican statewide in ages. If they see it as unwinnable, it doesn't really matter whether Walz is ahead by 6 or 16. And third, they're playing so much defense this year that they'd rather focus on prospects where the money could actually make a difference. All good points Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on October 21, 2018, 05:08:09 PM I'm glad to see the Midwest riding the blue wave this year! Let's hope WI does, too, by getting rid of Walker. Next WI poll please!
Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: Badger on October 23, 2018, 02:30:27 PM This poll doesn't mesh with the RGA pulling out all their money here. My guess is that Walz wins by more than 6, but even if he doesn't, it's pretty clear why the RGA would pull their money. For one, they're butthurt that their anointed candidate Pawlenty lost the primary. Secondly, 6 is still a pretty big gap to close in a state that even voted for Hillary and hasn't voted for a Republican statewide in ages. If they see it as unwinnable, it doesn't really matter whether Walz is ahead by 6 or 16. And third, they're playing so much defense this year that they'd rather focus on prospects where the money could actually make a difference. All good points Title: Re: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6 Post by: Politician on November 10, 2018, 10:39:39 AM It should be noted that Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA always underestimate Dems in MN in Dem wave years by about 5-10 points. So, Walz wins by about 10-15 in the end and Smith by at least 10-15 as well. lol |