Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 21, 2018, 09:20:28 am



Title: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 21, 2018, 09:20:28 am
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/21/rel1_fl.pdf

Nelson 50
Scott 45


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Tender Branson on October 21, 2018, 09:22:53 am
Rs are so screwed ...


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Politician stands with Sanchez on October 21, 2018, 09:23:26 am
What happened to the Hurricane Michael bump?


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 21, 2018, 09:25:37 am
What happened to the Hurricane Michael bump?

(It wasn't actually a thing)


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 21, 2018, 09:26:20 am
Not great for Scott, but he definitely still has a chance.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Comrade Funk on October 21, 2018, 09:28:02 am
Thank god for Gillum. Really helping Nelson out. Anyone wanna an easy laugh, go back and look at the reactions the night Gillum won. Peak Atlas.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: President Johnson on October 21, 2018, 09:30:07 am
Still a toss-up, but Nelson had and still has the edge here.

The combination of Nelson and Gillum on the ticket may just work out fine, since both drive different kinds of voters to the polls.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Brittain33 on October 21, 2018, 09:31:30 am
What happened to the Hurricane Michael bump?

Michael "bumped" a bunch of cell phone towers down in a part of the state where Scott was going to win 2-1.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on October 21, 2018, 09:38:50 am
But muh hurricane bump!!!!!! Anyway, I think Nelson is definitely more likely than not to win, though he could still lose if Democrats underperform expectations.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 21, 2018, 09:39:21 am
Not great for Scott, but he definitely still has a chance.
THIS

Especially with this poll seeming to be democrat friendly.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Yank2133 on October 21, 2018, 09:39:56 am
Oh


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: yeah_93 on October 21, 2018, 09:41:21 am
But muh hurricane bump!!!!!! Anyway, I think Nelson is definitely more likely than not to win, though he could still lose if Democrats underperform expectations.

Pretty much this. But I also have a hard time believing Gillum is up by 12, so.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 21, 2018, 09:43:01 am

Proper screwed?


...


It does appear that the Gianforte Grapple is being countered by the Full Bill Nelson!


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on October 21, 2018, 09:46:45 am
this seems pretty dem leaning. scott is only even in approvals? Nah, I don't buy it. ALso, -8 seems a bit low for trump


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: 1J on October 21, 2018, 09:48:49 am
I do have a hard time believing that Nelson is underperforming Gillum by 7 points, but I do think this is Nelson's race to lose.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: 2016 on October 21, 2018, 09:50:16 am
What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: President Johnson on October 21, 2018, 09:51:22 am
What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: 2016 on October 21, 2018, 09:58:23 am
What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Yank2133 on October 21, 2018, 09:59:18 am
What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.

Imagine being dumb enough to think CNN is biased towards Clinton...


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: KingSweden on October 21, 2018, 10:04:52 am
I do have a hard time believing that Nelson is underperforming Gillum by 7 points, but I do think this is Nelson's race to lose.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Gass3268 on October 21, 2018, 10:09:22 am
What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.

CNN was one of the most pro-Trump news outlet during 2016. Billions of dollars in free airtime playing full rallies without interruption or commentary.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: 2016 on October 21, 2018, 10:10:06 am
What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.

Imagine being dumb enough to think CNN is biased towards Clinton...

They are. Liberal Media. Nuff said.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 21, 2018, 10:19:47 am
Iím pretty sure the mood at Nelson's election night party wonít be all that exuberant if he actually underperforms Gillum by 7, but weíll see.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 21, 2018, 10:20:15 am
What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.

Imagine being dumb enough to think CNN is biased towards Clinton...

They are. Liberal Media. Nuff said.

You need to stop believing things that just aren't true.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Speaker YE on October 21, 2018, 10:20:26 am
What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.

Imagine being dumb enough to think CNN is biased towards Clinton...

They are. Liberal Media. Nuff said.

Yes because being being located in a big city where many elites who are socially liberal means by default they were biased towards Clinton.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: SirWoodbury on October 21, 2018, 10:21:00 am
This poll is obviously garbage. They rushed this right after the hurricane. This explains Nelson's unrealistic lead in this poll, because right now the panhandle is in turmoil. And the inhabitants there have more bigger problems than the senate race. Infact, this poll is pretty bad for Nelson. With the panhandle being mostly underpolled, he should be leading by 10+ They published this poll to mislead people in to believing that Scott never really had a hurricane bump to begin with. When we get closer to election day, with the panhandle recovering we will see a surge for Scott in the polls.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 21, 2018, 10:23:27 am
This poll is obviously garbage. They rushed this right after the hurricane. This explains Nelson's unrealistic lead in this poll, because right now the panhandle is in turmoil. And the inhabitants there have more bigger problems than the senate race. Infact, this poll is pretty bad for Nelson. With the panhandle being mostly underpolled, he should be leading by 10+ They published this poll to mislead people in to believing that Scott never really had a hurricane bump to begin with. When we get closer to election day, with the panhandle recovering we will see a surge for Scott in the polls.

lol


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Politician stands with Sanchez on October 21, 2018, 10:27:47 am
This poll is obviously garbage. They rushed this right after the hurricane. This explains Nelson's unrealistic lead in this poll, because right now the panhandle is in turmoil. And the inhabitants there have more bigger problems than the senate race. Infact, this poll is pretty bad for Nelson. With the panhandle being mostly underpolled, he should be leading by 10+ They published this poll to mislead people in to believing that Scott never really had a hurricane bump to begin with. When we get closer to election day, with the panhandle recovering we will see a surge for Scott in the polls.
But Atlas told me only Democrats unskew polls.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: bilaps on October 21, 2018, 10:28:29 am
What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.

CNN was one of the most pro-Trump news outlet during 2016. Billions of dollars in free airtime playing full rallies without interruption or commentary.

They did it because of ratings and one could make a case that Trump exposure was to get him to win R primary cause he was thought to be the weakest candidate.

Really, I don't want to go all dems and unskew this poll but on the issue of CNN it's pretty stupid to have someone claim they were or are pro Trump at any time.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Yank2133 on October 21, 2018, 10:31:56 am
What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.

Imagine being dumb enough to think CNN is biased towards Clinton...

They are. Liberal Media. Nuff said.

Lmao.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: KingSweden on October 21, 2018, 10:33:25 am
What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.

Imagine being dumb enough to think CNN is biased towards Clinton...

They are. Liberal Media. Nuff said.

Yes because being being located in a big city where many elites who are socially liberal means by default they were biased towards Clinton.

By that standard Fox, based out of NYC, is liberal media too


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 21, 2018, 10:35:46 am
This poll is obviously garbage. They rushed this right after the hurricane. This explains Nelson's unrealistic lead in this poll, because right now the panhandle is in turmoil. And the inhabitants there have more bigger problems than the senate race. Infact, this poll is pretty bad for Nelson. With the panhandle being mostly underpolled, he should be leading by 10+ They published this poll to mislead people in to believing that Scott never really had a hurricane bump to begin with. When we get closer to election day, with the panhandle recovering we will see a surge for Scott in the polls.

The part of the state Michael affected isnít even enough of the population to shift a poll 2 points, nevermind 15.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Parrotguy on October 21, 2018, 11:05:10 am
Considering the gubernatorial has Gillum up by 12, this is still tossup, but I like seeing this poll.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: IceSpear on October 21, 2018, 12:00:00 pm
I doubt Gillum wins by 7+ points, so Nelson better hope he's not underperforming Gillum by 7 points. But this is the only poll to show a spread that big, and seems like an outlier.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Canis on October 21, 2018, 12:42:34 pm
Imagine being a Gillum/Scott Voter lmao


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on October 21, 2018, 12:49:11 pm
I doubt Gillum wins by 7+ points, so Nelson better hope he's not underperforming Gillum by 7 points. But this is the only poll to show a spread that big, and seems like an outlier.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 21, 2018, 12:57:09 pm
I doubt Gillum wins by 7+ points, so Nelson better hope he's not underperforming Gillum by 7 points. But this is the only poll to show a spread that big, and seems like an outlier.
Well, the gap between Obama and Nelson was larger in 2012. And the gap in 2006 was enormous. We'll see what happens


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Moscow Mitch on October 21, 2018, 01:10:07 pm
() (https://ibb.co/i8Rv5f)

Florida Republican election night 2018 celebrations.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: DataGuy on October 21, 2018, 01:16:44 pm
Strangely, or perhaps not, my model keeps wanting to predict ridiculously high voter turnout in Florida. It's significantly higher than 538's expected 52% turnout. Although I might have to take Michael into account, I suppose it does make some sense. Turnout was 51% in 2014, and that was a terrible year for turnout on a national scale. Since this year is expected to feature much higher turnout nationwide, the same thing might happen in Florida, especially since there's a competitive Senate race happening.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Bagel23 on October 21, 2018, 01:22:36 pm
Still a toss-up, but Nelson had and still has the edge here.

The combination of Nelson and Gillum on the ticket may just work out fine, since both drive different kinds of voters to the polls.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Cory Booker on October 21, 2018, 01:32:44 pm
Scott wasn't gonna defeat Nelson


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: DataGuy on October 21, 2018, 01:37:42 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1030887840622764033

Just replace 25% with 35%.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: 2016 on October 21, 2018, 02:08:35 pm
In the new NBC News/WSJ National Poll Trumps JA is 45-52 among Likely Voters...YET CNN claims Trump is - 8 in FL. That is garbarge by CNN.

CNN polled thus far in Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, Nevada, Missouri and Florida AND except for Texas they have Democrats up in every other Poll.

CNN/USAToday/Gallup was a very decent combination but they stopped after the 2004 Election. Since then is has gone a long way down for CNN.

MAN, I wish Bill McInturff & Fred Yang who are the braintrust behind the NBC/WSJ Poll would poll Statewide Races. They are both a ton better compared to every other Pollster. They correctly predicted Clinton winning the Popular Vote in 2016 despite losing the EC.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: wbrocks67 on October 21, 2018, 02:39:11 pm
In the new NBC News/WSJ National Poll Trumps JA is 45-52 among Likely Voters...YET CNN claims Trump is - 8 in FL. That is garbarge by CNN.

CNN polled thus far in Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, Nevada, Missouri and Florida AND except for Texas they have Democrats up in every other Poll.

CNN/USAToday/Gallup was a very decent combination but they stopped after the 2004 Election. Since then is has gone a long way down for CNN.

MAN, I wish Bill McInturff & Fred Yang who are the braintrust behind the NBC/WSJ Poll would poll Statewide Races. They are both a ton better compared to every other Pollster. They correctly predicted Clinton winning the Popular Vote in 2016 despite losing the EC.

They are both only one poll. Both could be right, both could be wrong. But just go by the averages. Will Nelson win by 5? Probably not. But is Trump's approval 45-47%? Probably not.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: 2016 on October 21, 2018, 04:07:22 pm
In the new NBC News/WSJ National Poll Trumps JA is 45-52 among Likely Voters...YET CNN claims Trump is - 8 in FL. That is garbarge by CNN.

CNN polled thus far in Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, Nevada, Missouri and Florida AND except for Texas they have Democrats up in every other Poll.

CNN/USAToday/Gallup was a very decent combination but they stopped after the 2004 Election. Since then is has gone a long way down for CNN.

MAN, I wish Bill McInturff & Fred Yang who are the braintrust behind the NBC/WSJ Poll would poll Statewide Races. They are both a ton better compared to every other Pollster. They correctly predicted Clinton winning the Popular Vote in 2016 despite losing the EC.

They are both only one poll. Both could be right, both could be wrong. But just go by the averages. Will Nelson win by 5? Probably not. But is Trump's approval 45-47%? Probably not.

Here are Trumps JA in every State CNN/SSRS has polled this year...
AZ 39/57
FL 43/51
MO 51/45
NV 45/51
TN 49/48
TX 49/48

CNN/SSRS says that the Likely Florida Electorate next month will be 40-37-23 D/R/I, a D+3 Electorate YET if you look at the Ballots that have already been returned it's 44R/38D/17I.

If you look at past MidTerms in FL

2006 FL-GOV Exit Poll
R 40
D 36
I 24
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/FL/G/00/epolls.0.html (http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/FL/G/00/epolls.0.html)

2010 FL-GOV Exit Poll
R 36
D 35
I 27
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/06/16/2010-florida-and-ohio-governor-elections-how-the-unadjusted-exit-polls-were-forced-to-match-the-final-recorded-vote/ (https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/06/16/2010-florida-and-ohio-governor-elections-how-the-unadjusted-exit-polls-were-forced-to-match-the-final-recorded-vote/)

R 35
D 31
R 33
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/FL/governor/#exit-polls (http://edition.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/FL/governor/#exit-polls)

If we have a D+3 Electorate in FL that would be the first time in History in a MidTerm.

Do you really believe Trumps JA in Florida is worse than in NV? I don't think so.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Galletito on October 21, 2018, 04:27:36 pm
Atlas: I hate trolls

Atlas: *interacts with obvious trolls regularly; consistently debates troll like 2016 and hofoid knowing that they only empower trolls to continue being annoying*


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: 2016 on October 21, 2018, 04:31:04 pm
Atlas: I hate trolls

Atlas: *interacts with obvious trolls regularly; consistently debates troll like 2016 and hofoid knowing that they only empower trolls to continue being annoying*

Democrats = Angry Mob like Trump says and Trolls as well.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Badger on October 21, 2018, 11:36:11 pm
Folks, I assure you from experience that putting 2016 on ignore is blissful. I highly recommend doing it (in no small part, I admit, as I hate reading his awful posts bumped by others :P).


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: The Mikado on October 22, 2018, 12:30:30 am
I don't think Nelson wins by 5, though this poll is a good sign for him.

A deep pit in my gut keeps saying that this is going to be one of those classic Florida specials where the race comes down to within half a point and we don't know until the next day at the earliest.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Galletito on October 22, 2018, 02:05:34 am
Folks, I assure you from experience that putting 2016 on ignore is blissful. I highly recommend doing it (in no small part, I admit, as I hate reading his awful posts bumped by others :P).


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 22, 2018, 03:14:27 am
Folks, I assure you from experience that putting 2016 on ignore is blissful. I highly recommend doing it (in no small part, I admit, as I hate reading his awful posts bumped by others :P).


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 22, 2018, 03:18:02 am
Also, watch all the people who are dismissing this as junk take the Scott+2 one at face value and vice versa.

These polls were taken at the same time, both pollsters seem well-rated by 538 and have about the same sample size. Averaging them together is the only non-hackish thing to do.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 22, 2018, 03:45:35 am
Also, watch all the people who are dismissing this as junk take the Scott+2 one at face value and vice versa.

These polls were taken at the same time, both pollsters seem well-rated by 538 and have about the same sample size. Averaging them together is the only non-hackish thing to do.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: mgop on October 22, 2018, 09:46:21 am
cnn fake polls like in 2016.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: IceSpear on October 22, 2018, 09:55:36 am

Agreed. CNN fake news polls told me that Trump would win Nevada by 6 points and that we'd have Sen. Heck. Clearly Nelson is going to win by double digits. :)


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Nelson +5
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 22, 2018, 07:37:03 pm
Gillum won't win by 12 and Nelson won't win by 5. Though Nelson leading a poll is always somewhat reassuring for me. Especially from a state that usually disappoints me. I'm still staying cautious and considering this race a tossup though.