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Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 21, 2018, 09:21:00 am



Title: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 21, 2018, 09:21:00 am
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/21/rel1_fl.pdf

Gillum 54
DeSantis 42


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Tender Branson on October 21, 2018, 09:21:58 am
DOMINATING.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Snek! on October 21, 2018, 09:22:16 am
That's wicked!


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbedk on October 21, 2018, 09:22:33 am
Wow!!!


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Neoliberalbusters on October 21, 2018, 09:22:48 am
RIP DeSantis


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: cvparty on October 21, 2018, 09:23:50 am
lmaooo


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: President Johnson on October 21, 2018, 09:32:35 am
Toss-up -> Lean Democratic

Little Ronny has completely screwed up. Republicans may regret listening to the God Emperor as Putnam would have been a stronger candidate.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Thomas D on October 21, 2018, 09:37:40 am
That's Amazing.   


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on October 21, 2018, 09:40:51 am
Not likely, lol, but I wish.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: OneJ on October 21, 2018, 09:42:07 am
I like this poll.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Beto Bro on October 21, 2018, 09:57:43 am
Likely D.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on October 21, 2018, 10:09:50 am
Either CNN/SSRS and Marist will be our new gold standards/Trafalgars who accurately predicted the Democratic tidal wave of historic proportions, or theyíll be discredited once and for all on election day. Weíll see.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on October 21, 2018, 10:10:44 am
Gillum is up by I highly doubt by this much.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: New Frontier on October 21, 2018, 10:15:42 am
(
Img
)


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: KingSweden on October 21, 2018, 10:17:05 am
Gillum is up by I highly doubt by this much.

Agreed.

Also think Putnam would be keeping it much more competitive


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: OneJ on October 21, 2018, 10:20:25 am
Also, it's interesting to note that Nelson is losing the white vote 55-41 against Scott, but Gillum is losing the white vote by just 52-44 against DeSantis. ???


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: The Saint on October 21, 2018, 10:22:03 am
Gillum is up by I highly doubt by this much.

Agreed.

Also think Putnam would be keeping it much more competitive


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: IceSpear on October 21, 2018, 10:25:49 am
Outlier until proven otherwise.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: IceSpear on October 21, 2018, 10:28:35 am
Either CNN/SSRS and Marist will be our new gold standards/Trafalgars who accurately predicted the Democratic tidal wave of historic proportions, or theyíll be discredited once and for all on election day. Weíll see.

Not in Nevada. Clearly Gillum is going to win by double digits at the same time Dean Heller wins re-election. ;)


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 21, 2018, 10:32:15 am
Outlier until proven otherwise.

This.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: VirginiŠ on October 21, 2018, 10:38:53 am
I don't think it'll be this high in the end, but high single digits at least are not that surprising anymore. This would be the 3rd blowout (relative to Florida) poll in the past month, with others showing him up mid-single digits. I get that Florida is a somewhat close state, but all but 3 of the gubernatorial elections since the 80s have been modest-to-large wins. Rick Scott is the only recent candidate to keep it close, and Chiles barely won in 1994, but I think that can easily be attributed to the fact that it was a GOP wave year in a state that was completing its transition away from old southern Democrats.

Probably Gillum+4 - Gillum+6 in the end.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on October 21, 2018, 10:40:01 am
Beautiful.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Snek! on October 21, 2018, 10:52:27 am
I don't think it'll be this high in the end, but high single digits at least are not that surprising anymore. This would be the 3rd blowout (relative to Florida) poll in the past month, with others showing him up mid-single digits. I get that Florida is a somewhat close state, but all but 3 of the gubernatorial elections since the 80s have been modest-to-large wins. Rick Scott is the only recent candidate to keep it close, and Chiles barely won in 1994, but I think that can easily be attributed to the fact that it was a GOP wave year in a state that was completing its transition away from old southern Democrats.

Probably Gillum+4 - Gillum+6 in the end.

What would Gillum+5 look like on a map?


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 21, 2018, 10:57:16 am
I don't think it'll be this high in the end, but high single digits at least are not that surprising anymore. This would be the 3rd blowout (relative to Florida) poll in the past month, with others showing him up mid-single digits. I get that Florida is a somewhat close state, but all but 3 of the gubernatorial elections since the 80s have been modest-to-large wins. Rick Scott is the only recent candidate to keep it close, and Chiles barely won in 1994, but I think that can easily be attributed to the fact that it was a GOP wave year in a state that was completing its transition away from old southern Democrats.

Probably Gillum+4 - Gillum+6 in the end.

What would Gillum+5 look like on a map?

Obama 2008 minus Flagler, plus Duval, Madison and Seminole, maybe also plus Sarasota.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: TX more competitive than OH on October 21, 2018, 10:59:30 am
I don't think it'll be this high in the end, but high single digits at least are not that surprising anymore. This would be the 3rd blowout (relative to Florida) poll in the past month, with others showing him up mid-single digits. I get that Florida is a somewhat close state, but all but 3 of the gubernatorial elections since the 80s have been modest-to-large wins. Rick Scott is the only recent candidate to keep it close, and Chiles barely won in 1994, but I think that can easily be attributed to the fact that it was a GOP wave year in a state that was completing its transition away from old southern Democrats.

Probably Gillum+4 - Gillum+6 in the end.

What would Gillum+5 look like on a map?

Obama 2008 minus Flagler, plus Duval, Madison and Seminole, maybe also plus Sarasota.

Maybe Polk too. Now, a Gillum +{high single digits or more} map would probably be Bill Nelsonís 2012 map minus some of the Demosaur panhandle counties


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Parrotguy on October 21, 2018, 11:03:22 am
(
Img
)

But I wish.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on October 21, 2018, 11:25:27 am
Gillum is up by I highly doubt by this much.

Agreed.

Also think Putnam would be keeping it much more competitive

Absolutely


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Snek! on October 21, 2018, 11:28:51 am
I don't think it'll be this high in the end, but high single digits at least are not that surprising anymore. This would be the 3rd blowout (relative to Florida) poll in the past month, with others showing him up mid-single digits. I get that Florida is a somewhat close state, but all but 3 of the gubernatorial elections since the 80s have been modest-to-large wins. Rick Scott is the only recent candidate to keep it close, and Chiles barely won in 1994, but I think that can easily be attributed to the fact that it was a GOP wave year in a state that was completing its transition away from old southern Democrats.

Probably Gillum+4 - Gillum+6 in the end.

What would Gillum+5 look like on a map?

Obama 2008 minus Flagler, plus Duval, Madison and Seminole, maybe also plus Sarasota.

Maybe Polk too. Now, a Gillum +{high single digits or more} map would probably be Bill Nelsonís 2012 map minus some of the Demosaur panhandle counties

Maybe Sarasota. Doubt it. I think he takes Hillary + Seminole, St.Lucie, Monroe, Duval, Pinellas, and if this is remotely correct, then Polk and Sarasota.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on October 21, 2018, 11:38:58 am
So Gollum is more popular than Obama in 2008.   We will see.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: TX more competitive than OH on October 21, 2018, 11:46:02 am
I don't think it'll be this high in the end, but high single digits at least are not that surprising anymore. This would be the 3rd blowout (relative to Florida) poll in the past month, with others showing him up mid-single digits. I get that Florida is a somewhat close state, but all but 3 of the gubernatorial elections since the 80s have been modest-to-large wins. Rick Scott is the only recent candidate to keep it close, and Chiles barely won in 1994, but I think that can easily be attributed to the fact that it was a GOP wave year in a state that was completing its transition away from old southern Democrats.

Probably Gillum+4 - Gillum+6 in the end.

What would Gillum+5 look like on a map?

Obama 2008 minus Flagler, plus Duval, Madison and Seminole, maybe also plus Sarasota.

Maybe Polk too. Now, a Gillum +{high single digits or more} map would probably be Bill Nelsonís 2012 map minus some of the Demosaur panhandle counties

Maybe Sarasota. Doubt it. I think he takes Hillary + Seminole, St.Lucie, Monroe, Duval, Pinellas, and if this is remotely correct, then Polk and Sarasota.

Oh, well I only think Polk is gettable in a real blowout. Probably not +5. Though with +5, Gillum also wins Jefferson and probably Madison in addition to what you mentioned


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: bronz4141 on October 21, 2018, 12:07:37 pm
DeSantis is garbage.

But remember the KY-GOV 2015 polls? Remember the US Presidential 2016 polls?

FL GOP will realize that yes, Florida is a center-right state, but it is not Kansas or even Arizona-level right-wing.

Putnam would have had the race as Tossup.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Lourdes on October 21, 2018, 12:09:20 pm
Nice!


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Former Senator Zaybay on October 21, 2018, 12:16:38 pm
While disapproval of Trump is rather high in this poll, at least when compared to St Pete and other mediocre polls, its rather clear what is going on.

1. Gillum is leading DeSantis by a good amount

2. Nelson is favored in his race


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: VirginiŠ on October 21, 2018, 12:17:33 pm
DeSantis is garbage.

But remember the KY-GOV 2015 polls? Remember the US Presidential 2016 polls?

FL GOP will realize that yes, Florida is a center-right state, but it is not Kansas or even Arizona-level right-wing.

Putnam would have had the race as Tossup.

Worst way to make a case for an election outcome is to say "but 2016" wrt polls.

Florida polls (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html) for 2016's presidential race were accurate.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on October 21, 2018, 12:17:43 pm
Lol I predicted this. We've had 3 polls this month of Gillum being up by more than 7 points. Undecideds are breaking to Gillum. If Gillum achieves this number, the Florida Senate is likely to flip, and federally you have districts 6, 15, etc competitive. As someone who is working with the campaign on the ground I am not surprised by these numbers. Will it be as high as 12 points? Maybe not but I think Gillum +4-7 Is possible.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on October 21, 2018, 12:25:06 pm


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on October 21, 2018, 12:28:14 pm


I'd rather trust independent pollsters than internals, I've been working on the ground plus other polling suggest a much bigger win than that. But I guess limoliberal is gonna be limoliberal.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 21, 2018, 12:30:46 pm


I'd rather trust independent pollsters than internals, I've been working on the ground plus other polling suggest a much bigger win than that. But I guess limoliberal is gonna be limoliberal.

I'm not even sure those "internals" are real, given that it's a random reporter reporting them and only showing margins, not even mentioning actual numbers.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: libertpaulian on October 21, 2018, 12:33:44 pm
I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: TX more competitive than OH on October 21, 2018, 12:36:51 pm
I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


Swing voters certainly arenít the brightest despite their portrayal as magical RINO Tom-esque unicorns in the media


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on October 21, 2018, 12:44:46 pm
ANDREW GILLUM LADIES AND GENTLEMEN


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: libertpaulian on October 21, 2018, 12:46:10 pm
I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


Swing voters certainly arenít the brightest despite their portrayal as magical RINO Tom-esque unicorns in the media
I mean, Gillum is running as the anti-Scott.  

Gillum: "Scott has screwed up our state for the past 8 years.  Let's not elect another 4 years of him, even if he goes by a different name!"

Florida Voter: "I agree!  Let's bring change to Tallahassee!"

Rick Scott: "I'm running for Senate!"

Florida Voter: "Ooh!  Our economy is nice, and he handled the hurricanes really great!!"

Bill Nelson: "Uh...Red Tide Rick!  I'm an astronaut!"

Florida Voter: "I'm voting for Scott!  Sure, I think he's corrupt from Tallahassee, but I trust him to have federal control of my life, not to mention the lives of 300 million other Americans!"

I mean...do Florida voters REALIZE they have to go through these types of mental gymnastics?!


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on October 21, 2018, 12:47:47 pm
This is one of those threads that will inevitably be bumped the day after the election.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on October 21, 2018, 12:49:25 pm
This is one of those threads that will inevitably be bumped the day after the election.
Wen Gillum wins by 30


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: libertpaulian on October 21, 2018, 12:51:52 pm
This is one of those threads that will inevitably be bumped the day after the election.
This won't be the only one. ;)


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: OneJ on October 21, 2018, 12:57:03 pm
I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


My best guess of what one might look like. :P

Gillum/Scott voter: Nelson has been in office for far too long. We need new blood. I like what Scott's been doing for our state. I'll vote for Scott.

Also Gillum/Scott voter: DeSantis loves making a fool out of himself. I like Gillum. He's enthusiastic or whatever.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on October 21, 2018, 12:59:19 pm
I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


My best guess of what one might look like. :P

Gillum/Scott voter: Nelson has been in office for far too long. We need new blood. I like what Scott's been doing for our state. I'll vote for Scott.

Also Gillum/Scott voter: DeSantis loves making a fool out of himself. I like Gillum. He's enthusiastic or whatever.

Yeah, remember how many Trump/Greitens/Kander there were? Swing voters donít base their votes on actual issues, lol.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 21, 2018, 01:02:35 pm
I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.

There's the possibility that some folks could simply leave the Senate race blank in the end


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: gottsu on October 21, 2018, 01:10:25 pm
I am taking this poll with a little pinch of salt as a moderate outlier. Gillum leads, but not by double digits.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Young Conservative on October 21, 2018, 01:17:54 pm
Clearly an outlier, but I'll let atlas have their fun for the day...enjoy it people.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: OneJ on October 21, 2018, 01:19:57 pm
I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


My best guess of what one might look like. :P

Gillum/Scott voter: Nelson has been in office for far too long. We need new blood. I like what Scott's been doing for our state. I'll vote for Scott.

Also Gillum/Scott voter: DeSantis loves making a fool out of himself. I like Gillum. He's enthusiastic or whatever.

Yeah, remember how many Trump/Greitens/Kander there were? Swing voters donít base their votes on actual issues, lol.

Especially considering that in a scenario in which Kander becomes Senator he would likely vote to McCaskill's left despite her already being fairly to the left of MO.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: IceSpear on October 21, 2018, 01:49:47 pm
I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


Swing voters certainly arenít the brightest despite their portrayal as magical RINO Tom-esque unicorns in the media
I mean, Gillum is running as the anti-Scott.  

Gillum: "Scott has screwed up our state for the past 8 years.  Let's not elect another 4 years of him, even if he goes by a different name!"

Florida Voter: "I agree!  Let's bring change to Tallahassee!"

Rick Scott: "I'm running for Senate!"

Florida Voter: "Ooh!  Our economy is nice, and he handled the hurricanes really great!!"

Bill Nelson: "Uh...Red Tide Rick!  I'm an astronaut!"

Florida Voter: "I'm voting for Scott!  Sure, I think he's corrupt from Tallahassee, but I trust him to have federal control of my life, not to mention the lives of 300 million other Americans!"

I mean...do Florida voters REALIZE they have to go through these types of mental gymnastics?!

The problem is you're assuming they're doing any mental gymnastics or justifications. They are not.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 21, 2018, 01:50:42 pm
I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


Swing voters certainly arenít the brightest despite their portrayal as magical RINO Tom-esque unicorns in the media
I mean, Gillum is running as the anti-Scott.  

Gillum: "Scott has screwed up our state for the past 8 years.  Let's not elect another 4 years of him, even if he goes by a different name!"

Florida Voter: "I agree!  Let's bring change to Tallahassee!"

Rick Scott: "I'm running for Senate!"

Florida Voter: "Ooh!  Our economy is nice, and he handled the hurricanes really great!!"

Bill Nelson: "Uh...Red Tide Rick!  I'm an astronaut!"

Florida Voter: "I'm voting for Scott!  Sure, I think he's corrupt from Tallahassee, but I trust him to have federal control of my life, not to mention the lives of 300 million other Americans!"

I mean...do Florida voters REALIZE they have to go through these types of mental gymnastics?!

The problem is you're assuming they're doing any mental gymnastics or justifications. They are not.

That's true. These type of voters are too dumb to even be able to do either of them.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Never Populism on October 21, 2018, 02:08:55 pm
Pretty clearly a bad sample. Gillum doesn't need to win by 12 and he's not going to.

DeSantis is in trouble if even the friendlier polls never show him leading, though. Unless the GOP has been saving a Sinema-style oppo dump for the last few weeks, this race is pretty close to midnight.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: VirginiŠ on October 21, 2018, 02:12:38 pm
Pretty clearly a bad sample. Gillum doesn't need to win by 12 and he's not going to.

DeSantis is in trouble if even the friendlier polls never show him leading, though. Unless the GOP has been saving a Sinema-style oppo dump for the last few weeks, this race is pretty close to midnight.

The fact that Gillum has proximity to that FBI investigation and still is leading comfortably in the polls (mostly) makes me doubt that whatever oppo they could scare up, if any, will be effective. It would have to be some pretty serious stuff. Also, given how desperate DeSantis seems to be getting, I'm not even convinced he would hold on to it until the last minute (which would be unwise anyway, due to early voting).

Most likely scenario here seems to be that DeSantis is a dud candidate on track to lose.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Former Senator Zaybay on October 21, 2018, 02:18:00 pm
A trend I have noticed. Polls that are considered high quality and have done polls around the USA have shown large leads for Gillum, while polls done by medicore/poor polls based in FL have shown a really close race.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: VirginiŠ on October 21, 2018, 02:25:21 pm
A trend I have noticed. Polls that are considered high quality and have done polls around the USA have shown large leads for Gillum, while polls done by medicore/poor polls based in FL have shown a really close race.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

Introducing the new gold standard, St. Pete Polls!


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: TX more competitive than OH on October 21, 2018, 10:11:41 pm
Clearly an outlier, but I'll let atlas have their fun for the day...enjoy it people.

Three polls in a row have shown this race approaching blowout territory, so if you need to comfort yourself, okay


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Sir Mohamed on October 22, 2018, 01:33:21 am
#Gillumunder55
#DeSantisunder43


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: libertpaulian on October 22, 2018, 09:46:29 am
If DeSantis doesn't reach low-single digits soon, the RGA should triage this race and focus on Georgia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Iowa.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 22, 2018, 07:31:28 pm
This is a very encouraging poll from a race that has been unexpectedly encouraging. He won't win by this much though. Gillum winning by anything will make me satisfied though, even if it's by one-twelfth of this.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: olowakandi on October 22, 2018, 08:06:49 pm
UWS says tilt R because Scott 61% approvals. FL is lean D


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: TarHeelDem on October 22, 2018, 09:11:37 pm
Triage time.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: IceSpear on November 12, 2018, 04:07:09 am
Junk poll!


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: DINGO Joe on November 12, 2018, 04:37:44 am
Junk poll!

The poll was fine, it's the electorate that's junk.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Pickup Paulite on November 12, 2018, 08:00:42 am
Iím going to find it hard to trust CNN polls in the future


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Snek! on November 12, 2018, 10:09:41 am
The Gillum Effect.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: History505 on November 12, 2018, 10:59:26 am
Lol.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Snek! on November 12, 2018, 12:40:33 pm
Though the discrepancies between the polls and all that we are learning now point to another conclusion- The election wasn't an election.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: olowakandi on November 12, 2018, 05:35:23 pm
2010 Alex Sink, 2014 Charlie Crist and 2018 Andrew Gillum, third midterm in a row, where polls got it wrong in FL.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: auburntiger on November 12, 2018, 09:02:09 pm
I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.

There's the possibility that some folks could simply leave the Senate race blank in the end

Which is exactly what just happened, but in reverse in Broward County!
The ballot designs there are/were awful!


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: New York Dude on November 12, 2018, 09:24:18 pm
Guys, CNN's final poll for this race was Gillum +1. This is clearly a bad poll, but it's unfair to use it to criticize the pollster.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: IceSpear on November 12, 2018, 09:25:37 pm
Guys, CNN's final poll for this race was Gillum +1. This is clearly a bad poll, but it's unfair to use it to criticize the pollster.

The race was never Gillum +12 or anywhere close to that.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Pericles on November 12, 2018, 10:11:55 pm
Good on them at least for not herding.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: olowakandi on November 13, 2018, 04:33:01 am
Gillum never lead by 12


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: UncleSam on November 13, 2018, 01:21:44 pm
Good on them at least for not herding.
This. They probably had a D-friendly sample and a D-friendly turnout model and got a weird result but just went with it. Ultimately itís hard to place too much blame on a pollster for something like this. That being said, if this had been a Rosendale +12 poll everyone here would be saying Ďthis is garbage LOL throw it in the junk foreverí so


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: Snek! on November 14, 2018, 07:28:10 am
Good on them at least for not herding.
This. They probably had a D-friendly sample and a D-friendly turnout model and got a weird result but just went with it. Ultimately itís hard to place too much blame on a pollster for something like this. That being said, if this had been a Rosendale +12 poll everyone here would be saying Ďthis is garbage LOL throw it in the junk foreverí so

We knew it was an outlier from the beginning. But why there was a 5 point discrepancy in the race? Either the election was fraudulent or polls are pretty much useless beyond the methodology because there are too many people that are inherently dishonest or a dishonest as a form of passive aggression against the "fake news" media.


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbedk on November 14, 2018, 11:03:45 am
I hate polling!!!!!


Title: Re: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
Post by: olowakandi on November 14, 2018, 05:30:46 pm
This poll is funny, now.