Talk Elections

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/21/rel1_fl.pdf

Gillum 54
DeSantis 42

DOMINATING.

That's wicked!

Wow!!!

RIP DeSantis

lmaooo

Toss-up -> Lean Democratic

Little Ronny has completely screwed up. Republicans may regret listening to the God Emperor as Putnam would have been a stronger candidate.

That's Amazing.   

Not likely, lol, but I wish.

I like this poll.

Likely D.

Either CNN/SSRS and Marist will be our new gold standards/Trafalgars who accurately predicted the Democratic tidal wave of historic proportions, or they’ll be discredited once and for all on election day. We’ll see.

Gillum is up by I highly doubt by this much.

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Agreed.

Also think Putnam would be keeping it much more competitive

Also, it's interesting to note that Nelson is losing the white vote 55-41 against Scott, but Gillum is losing the white vote by just 52-44 against DeSantis. ???

Outlier until proven otherwise.

Not in Nevada. Clearly Gillum is going to win by double digits at the same time Dean Heller wins re-election. ;)

This.

I don't think it'll be this high in the end, but high single digits at least are not that surprising anymore. This would be the 3rd blowout (relative to Florida) poll in the past month, with others showing him up mid-single digits. I get that Florida is a somewhat close state, but all but 3 of the gubernatorial elections since the 80s have been modest-to-large wins. Rick Scott is the only recent candidate to keep it close, and Chiles barely won in 1994, but I think that can easily be attributed to the fact that it was a GOP wave year in a state that was completing its transition away from old southern Democrats.

Probably Gillum+4 - Gillum+6 in the end.

Beautiful.

What would Gillum+5 look like on a map?

Obama 2008 minus Flagler, plus Duval, Madison and Seminole, maybe also plus Sarasota.

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But I wish.

Absolutely

Maybe Sarasota. Doubt it. I think he takes Hillary + Seminole, St.Lucie, Monroe, Duval, Pinellas, and if this is remotely correct, then Polk and Sarasota.

So Gollum is more popular than Obama in 2008.   We will see.

DeSantis is garbage.

But remember the KY-GOV 2015 polls? Remember the US Presidential 2016 polls?

FL GOP will realize that yes, Florida is a center-right state, but it is not Kansas or even Arizona-level right-wing.

Putnam would have had the race as Tossup.

Nice!

While disapproval of Trump is rather high in this poll, at least when compared to St Pete and other mediocre polls, its rather clear what is going on.

1. Gillum is leading DeSantis by a good amount

2. Nelson is favored in his race

Worst way to make a case for an election outcome is to say "but 2016" wrt polls.

Florida polls (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html) for 2016's presidential race were accurate.

Lol I predicted this. We've had 3 polls this month of Gillum being up by more than 7 points. Undecideds are breaking to Gillum. If Gillum achieves this number, the Florida Senate is likely to flip, and federally you have districts 6, 15, etc competitive. As someone who is working with the campaign on the ground I am not surprised by these numbers. Will it be as high as 12 points? Maybe not but I think Gillum +4-7 Is possible.

I'd rather trust independent pollsters than internals, I've been working on the ground plus other polling suggest a much bigger win than that. But I guess limoliberal is gonna be limoliberal.

I'm not even sure those "internals" are real, given that it's a random reporter reporting them and only showing margins, not even mentioning actual numbers.

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.

ANDREW GILLUM LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

I mean, Gillum is running as the anti-Scott.  

Gillum: "Scott has screwed up our state for the past 8 years.  Let's not elect another 4 years of him, even if he goes by a different name!"

Florida Voter: "I agree!  Let's bring change to Tallahassee!"

Rick Scott: "I'm running for Senate!"

Florida Voter: "Ooh!  Our economy is nice, and he handled the hurricanes really great!!"

Bill Nelson: "Uh...Red Tide Rick!  I'm an astronaut!"

Florida Voter: "I'm voting for Scott!  Sure, I think he's corrupt from Tallahassee, but I trust him to have federal control of my life, not to mention the lives of 300 million other Americans!"

I mean...do Florida voters REALIZE they have to go through these types of mental gymnastics?!

This is one of those threads that will inevitably be bumped the day after the election.

Wen Gillum wins by 30

This won't be the only one. ;)

My best guess of what one might look like. :P

Gillum/Scott voter: Nelson has been in office for far too long. We need new blood. I like what Scott's been doing for our state. I'll vote for Scott.

Also Gillum/Scott voter: DeSantis loves making a fool out of himself. I like Gillum. He's enthusiastic or whatever.

Yeah, remember how many Trump/Greitens/Kander there were? Swing voters don’t base their votes on actual issues, lol.

There's the possibility that some folks could simply leave the Senate race blank in the end

I am taking this poll with a little pinch of salt as a moderate outlier. Gillum leads, but not by double digits.

Clearly an outlier, but I'll let atlas have their fun for the day...enjoy it people.

Especially considering that in a scenario in which Kander becomes Senator he would likely vote to McCaskill's left despite her already being fairly to the left of MO.

The problem is you're assuming they're doing any mental gymnastics or justifications. They are not.

That's true. These type of voters are too dumb to even be able to do either of them.

Pretty clearly a bad sample. Gillum doesn't need to win by 12 and he's not going to.

DeSantis is in trouble if even the friendlier polls never show him leading, though. Unless the GOP has been saving a Sinema-style oppo dump for the last few weeks, this race is pretty close to midnight.

The fact that Gillum has proximity to that FBI investigation and still is leading comfortably in the polls (mostly) makes me doubt that whatever oppo they could scare up, if any, will be effective. It would have to be some pretty serious stuff. Also, given how desperate DeSantis seems to be getting, I'm not even convinced he would hold on to it until the last minute (which would be unwise anyway, due to early voting).

Most likely scenario here seems to be that DeSantis is a dud candidate on track to lose.

A trend I have noticed. Polls that are considered high quality and have done polls around the USA have shown large leads for Gillum, while polls done by medicore/poor polls based in FL have shown a really close race.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

Introducing the new gold standard, St. Pete Polls!

#Gillumunder55
#DeSantisunder43

If DeSantis doesn't reach low-single digits soon, the RGA should triage this race and focus on Georgia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Iowa.

This is a very encouraging poll from a race that has been unexpectedly encouraging. He won't win by this much though. Gillum winning by anything will make me satisfied though, even if it's by one-twelfth of this.

UWS says tilt R because Scott 61% approvals. FL is lean D

Triage time.

Junk poll!

The poll was fine, it's the electorate that's junk.

I’m going to find it hard to trust CNN polls in the future

The Gillum Effect.

Lol.

Though the discrepancies between the polls and all that we are learning now point to another conclusion- The election wasn't an election.

2010 Alex Sink, 2014 Charlie Crist and 2018 Andrew Gillum, third midterm in a row, where polls got it wrong in FL.

Which is exactly what just happened, but in reverse in Broward County!
The ballot designs there are/were awful!

Guys, CNN's final poll for this race was Gillum +1. This is clearly a bad poll, but it's unfair to use it to criticize the pollster.

The race was never Gillum +12 or anywhere close to that.

Good on them at least for not herding.

Gillum never lead by 12

This. They probably had a D-friendly sample and a D-friendly turnout model and got a weird result but just went with it. Ultimately it’s hard to place too much blame on a pollster for something like this. That being said, if this had been a Rosendale +12 poll everyone here would be saying ‘this is garbage LOL throw it in the junk forever’ so

We knew it was an outlier from the beginning. But why there was a 5 point discrepancy in the race? Either the election was fraudulent or polls are pretty much useless beyond the methodology because there are too many people that are inherently dishonest or a dishonest as a form of passive aggression against the "fake news" media.

I hate polling!!!!!

This poll is funny, now.