Talk Elections

Tester (D) - 46.2
Rosendale (R) - 43.1
Breckenridge (L) - 2.6

https://krtv.com/news/2018/10/22/mtn-msu-poll-tester-holds-narrow-lead-in-u-s-senate-race/?fbclid=IwAR2Ge9R3NuV9sgiylZDWFMHm83jqrkdmQG3-fpaInFGXPNVUYGDXK9mT0y4

Yeah, it looks like Tester will be fine.

But Charlie Cook told me that Jon Tester was less vulnerable than Angus King, Tina Smith, and Tammy Baldwin.

decimals

College poll with decimals from several weeks ago.

*sigh*

Realllllly wish we could get someone else to come in here so we don’t have to settle for this or that farcical Tester +24

It would actually be really funny if the election actually did end up being around that margin...

Not a great poll for Tester, but I suppose he has a narrow edge. Not the best poll in general, though.

...what? As in, they sent polls to people's houses? Am I missing something?

I have this on my R pickup list, and have since last July. In the end there won't be a whiff of difference between flattop and his colleague adjacent east. There's no way a state that voted against Hillary Clinton by 20 points, and loves assaulting journalists, will reelect a Democrat.

It's fascinating to me that Jon Tester has never won by more than four points in his Senate career, and has never received an absolute majority. It appears that trend will be continuing this year.

Yeah, no Mason-Dixon poll this year, unfortunately.

Well, let's start with the fact that R+36 is a lot different than R+20. That alone would erase Heitkamp's deficit, all else being equal.

I'm sorry, but this is absolutely disgusting. We can argue over policy, and heck, it's even mostly within bounds to insult his looks, but it's really messed up and beyond the pale to bring his tragic injury in to this. I hate my governor Greg Abbott, but I would never insult him in that fashion and make fun of his disabilities.

The thing is, I think the margin looks within reason.


That... doesn’t strike me as best practice

Says the guy who is in favor of running a racist Dixiecrat campaign against Tim Scott and who was disappointed when he found out that Rosendale didn’t have a speech impediment because it would hurt him in the debates, lmao

still a pretty mean thing to say, regardless. Nobody messes with #populists

So we finally have that MTN-MSU Poll out you talked about in another Thread. This is a Toss Up Race for me. Along with Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota the best Pick Up Opportunities for the GOP.

I can see Tester losing along with Heitkamp and McCaskill....

This Graphic though seems odd to me
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Tester ahead with older Voters especially those 65+ is a little bit suspicious.

Ouch.

I have this taint-waffle on ignore, so I can’t report him, but this kind of BS warrants an infraction.

I am so stealing "taint-waffle" as an insult.

Nah, that’s actually believable in a state like Montana, and keep in mind that it’s not a particularly large lead anyway. The crosstabs look fine, and so does the topline/margin. It’s probably the best snapshot we’re going to get of this race before election day.

Anyone want to guess what their MT-AL poll will show? I’ll say Gianforte +3.5 :P

Yeah Grapplin’ Greg up by 2 or 3 sounds reasonable

Anyways pure tossup but gove the narrowest edge to Tester. I will also take the unpopular position that he is in better shape for reelection than Manchin.

Thank you for bearing that cross on behalf of the rest of us

For a moment, I thought that said "Gropin' Greg". But yeah I'd say about 3-4 points in Gianforte's favor.

I like the idea of seeing more mail polls. Let's see if it works.

lmao

anyway, @bagel

I just wanted some alliterative appeal. What's wrong with that?

Does this pollster typically overrate Democrats in general, or is it just all over the place?

Their final 2012 poll has Romney+14, Hill+2, Rehberg+3 (compared with actual results of Romney+13, Bullock+2, Tester+4), so I think it's just not a great poll rather than being skewed in Democrats' favor a lot.

Also, my perception is that Montana is a late-breaking state broke late Republican in 2016 and late Democratic for state races in 2012, given the general high levels of fluctuation the state sees and the general fact that polling averages included some pretty prestigious pollsters in both years and were still off consistently.

Tester won voters who were 65+ in 2012 by 1%. The sons and daughters of that group are more conservative.  Consider that a lot of those 65+ voters were probably associated with labor unions in the past.

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I blame the Ambien. I swear. One night I took Ambien and was wearing Hugo Boss in the morning for work...Not Good!

I believed that this one was kind of over, but there is no objective reason for it, so I find this poll to be believable. Tester isn't especially popular or moderate and Trump should still be reasonably popular in Montana.

Some of these colleges still do that mail ballot thing (there was one in PA that did as well in 2016 IIRC). Problem is there's a dearth of polling in a state like Montana to get a good idea of where the race is at this point other than to assume that it's basically a tossup.

Does MT have restrictions on polling like IN and ND do, or are people just not that interested in it as a state?

I think it's just a tiny state population wise, so not so much on many's radar. Kind of like Rhode Island or Delaware rarely getting polled.

But I thought Tester was up by 24???

Glad to have a solid poll of the race, too bad it was taken several weeks ago. Still a Toss-Up.

KingSweden's non-alliterative nickname for you was funnier.

MSU Gold standard!

Either that or they are lucky. Sometimes its better to be lucky than good.

#TitaniumTester

These mail-ballot polls probably make it easier to reach voters in more conservative rural areas. Even before the election, it should have been obvious that this was more accurate than all the Tester +9 polls or whatever. Montana isn’t as "elastic" as many here are making it out to be.

#calledit