|
Title: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on October 23, 2018, 03:38:09 PM https://twitter.com/Nat_Herz/status/1054826431413313536
() Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: Politician on October 23, 2018, 03:38:30 PM IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do.
Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: wesmoorenerd on October 23, 2018, 03:39:13 PM Interesting that Walker actively supporting Begich would actively hurt the latter.
Anyway, Safe R > Lean R, closer to Tossup than Likely. Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: KingSweden on October 23, 2018, 03:40:19 PM Huh.
*Maybe* this will be a race. Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: DaWN on October 23, 2018, 03:40:36 PM lol decimals
In all seriousness, if another poll confirms it's getting closer I'll move this race to Lean R, but I still have difficulty seeing Begich close the gap. Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: IceSpear on October 23, 2018, 03:55:51 PM IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do. Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R. Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 23, 2018, 03:59:19 PM Dunleavy was never going to win a two-way race in a landslide, but I’d still call this Lean R, Dunleavy by 5 or 6.
Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: ON Progressive on October 23, 2018, 04:00:23 PM That seems about right. Lean R.
Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 23, 2018, 04:01:47 PM Ivan Moore tends to be dem biased so Likely R
Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 23, 2018, 04:30:31 PM Dems don't need AK, it's not redistricting, focus on GA and FL and OH
Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: MAINEiac4434 on October 23, 2018, 04:33:15 PM D E C I M A L S
Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: Xing on October 23, 2018, 05:21:38 PM I may move this to Lean R, but if Dunleavy is this close to 50%, it's hard to see how he loses.
Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 23, 2018, 05:27:58 PM https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201282.0
Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: Skye on October 23, 2018, 05:46:15 PM This being AK, I wouldn't rule out a Begich win. Though Walker's presence in the ballot may be his doom in a really close race.
Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 23, 2018, 06:14:24 PM IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do. Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R. Ideally, you should never have to change a Safe D/R rating - because it should honestly mean Safe. Safe even if you have the climate totally wrong. Safe even if there's a last minute scandal. For three way contests, Safe even if one candidate drops out. No one is perfect, and everyone has to change a Safe rating once in a while, but when such an event happens, it should cause you to fundamentally reexamine your prediction system and determine if the race-altering event was in any way remotely forseeable. And a candidate dropping out of this race was always a possibility. So you should not have had this at Safe in the first place. Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 23, 2018, 06:20:35 PM If only.
Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: Badger on October 23, 2018, 06:42:46 PM Um, why are we talking about a purely hypothetical poll based on the premise that Walker dropped out and backed begich? It's not like this is about to happen.
Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: IceSpear on October 23, 2018, 07:16:14 PM IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do. Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R. Ideally, you should never have to change a Safe D/R rating - because it should honestly mean Safe. Safe even if you have the climate totally wrong. Safe even if there's a last minute scandal. For three way contests, Safe even if one candidate drops out. No one is perfect, and everyone has to change a Safe rating once in a while, but when such an event happens, it should cause you to fundamentally reexamine your prediction system and determine if the race-altering event was in any way remotely forseeable. And a candidate dropping out of this race was always a possibility. So you should not have had this at Safe in the first place. By that logic no race is safe, because almost any candidate who got hit with a Roy Moore level scandal would lose. Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: cinyc on October 23, 2018, 07:19:46 PM Dems don't need AK, it's not redistricting, focus on GA and FL and OH State redistricting matters, too, you know. Title: Re: AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6 Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 23, 2018, 07:20:50 PM IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do. Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R. Ideally, you should never have to change a Safe D/R rating - because it should honestly mean Safe. Safe even if you have the climate totally wrong. Safe even if there's a last minute scandal. For three way contests, Safe even if one candidate drops out. No one is perfect, and everyone has to change a Safe rating once in a while, but when such an event happens, it should cause you to fundamentally reexamine your prediction system and determine if the race-altering event was in any way remotely forseeable. And a candidate dropping out of this race was always a possibility. So you should not have had this at Safe in the first place. By that logic no race is safe, because almost any candidate who got hit with a Roy Moore level scandal would lose. Meh, I don't know. Moore vs. Jones was always going to be competitive - as shown by the 2012 supreme Court race, AL just has a profound dislike of Moore that doesn't really apply to any other Republican. |