Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 24, 2018, 08:00:16 am



Title: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 24, 2018, 08:00:16 am
https://reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1MY18

Evers 48
Walker 45


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Snek! on October 24, 2018, 08:01:13 am
Walker is gone. Finally.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Sir Mohamed on October 24, 2018, 08:27:19 am
Walker is gone. Finally.

Not so fast, that's a statistical tie. I think Evers is favored, but not guaranteed to win.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Gass3268 on October 24, 2018, 08:29:09 am
Walker is gone. Finally.

Not so fast, that's a statistical tie. I think Evers is favored, but not guaranteed to win.

"Inside the margin of error" statistical tie is not a thing.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: History505 on October 24, 2018, 08:36:10 am
Walker's time is up.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Gass3268 on October 24, 2018, 08:36:48 am
This is a drop since their last poll, but good to see Evers still in the lead.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Wiz in Wis on October 24, 2018, 09:16:53 am
A slight Evers drop combined with a slight Baldwin rise... hard to see them being 12 points apart on election night. Even so, Walker hasn't hit 50 in a single poll all year.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Singletxguyforfun on October 24, 2018, 09:34:06 am
Walker is gone. Finally.

Not so fast, that's a statistical tie. I think Evers is favored, but not guaranteed to win.

"Inside the margin of error" statistical tie is not a thing.

Liberals:
Ignoring biology on gender
Ignoring math on statistics


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on October 24, 2018, 09:35:18 am
My governor NEEDS to GO! Trump is visiting Wisconsin today. I'm sure Walker will make up more lies about Evers after seeing this poll. The next MU poll is next week, by the way.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: DTC on October 24, 2018, 09:37:01 am
Walker is gone. Finally.

Not so fast, that's a statistical tie. I think Evers is favored, but not guaranteed to win.

"Inside the margin of error" statistical tie is not a thing.

Liberals:
Ignoring biology on gender
Ignoring math on statistics

Statistical tie in this context is not a thing. Have you even taken statistics before?

https://jonathanturley.org/2012/10/06/the-myth-of-the-statistical-tie/


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Former President Weatherboy1102 on October 24, 2018, 09:38:27 am
Sounds about right. Lean D, closer to tossup than likely.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Singletxguyforfun on October 24, 2018, 09:47:09 am
Walker is gone. Finally.

Not so fast, that's a statistical tie. I think Evers is favored, but not guaranteed to win.

"Inside the margin of error" statistical tie is not a thing.

Liberals:
Ignoring biology on gender
Ignoring math on statistics

Statistical tie in this context is not a thing. Have you even taken statistics before?

https://jonathanturley.org/2012/10/06/the-myth-of-the-statistical-tie/

Yes I have and I know how the margin of error/Standard deviation works


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: 2016 on October 24, 2018, 09:55:17 am
I watched CNN AC360 last Night and their Political Director David Chalian made a great Point: He said because of increased Republican Enthusiasm a lot of the Races are now tighter. The Question is can the GOP sustain this cuz then we will have a lot of close Races Nov 6th.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Figueira on October 24, 2018, 09:56:40 am
Walker is gone. Finally.

Not so fast, that's a statistical tie. I think Evers is favored, but not guaranteed to win.

"Inside the margin of error" statistical tie is not a thing.

Liberals:
Ignoring biology on gender
Ignoring math on statistics

Statistical tie in this context is not a thing. Have you even taken statistics before?

https://jonathanturley.org/2012/10/06/the-myth-of-the-statistical-tie/

I mean, his point on biology is also wrong, so....


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on October 24, 2018, 10:12:20 am
Atlas annoys me sometimes. I guess Evers has to be leading by 20 to satisfy some! Even a slight lead is bad.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on October 24, 2018, 10:23:10 am
Reuters is a bad pollster, but itís definitely not good news for Evers that heís underperforming Baldwin by 12 points. Still a Toss-up.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on October 24, 2018, 11:24:34 am
Reuters is a bad pollster, but itís definitely not good news for Evers that heís underperforming Baldwin by 12 points. Still a Toss-up.

I very much doubt Evers and Baldwin will be that far apart on Election Day. Again, I know my state pretty well and it's extremely polarized under Walker. I've been canvassing and have spoken to hundrends of Walker voters this cycle. Every last one of them is also voting for Vukmir. Every Baldwin supporter I know is also voting for Evers. I am a firm believer that Baldwin will coattail Evers in the end. People and pundits thought WI was going to split tickets between Hillary and Johnson because Feingold and Johnson ended up polling close, whereas Hillary held her modest lead over Trump. Baldwin is the Hillary of 2016 in polling, whereas Evers is the Feingold of 2016 in polling. This article is proof: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/blogs/wisconsin-voter/2016/11/03/top-races-show-signs-ticket-splitting/93262280/

I honestly think this will be the case this year, with both Evers and Baldwin winning, but I'm going try my harest not to be complacent. This race could go either way, still.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on October 24, 2018, 11:48:56 am
Yeah, that gap is definitely hard to believe, and it is a Reuters poll, so I probably shouldnít read anything into it, honestly.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on October 24, 2018, 12:13:13 pm
Throw it in the trash. Reuters is pretty much on par with Survey Monkey.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: AOC for President 2032 on October 24, 2018, 12:22:36 pm
#Below50 Evers is collapsing and everyone is quibbling over margin of error. Face it. Non-Baldwin Dems can no longer win statewide in Wisconsin. National Dems have figuratively spit on this state, beginning with their Neoliberal Goldwater-supporting queen Hillary.

So, now the most recent polls show Evers+3 (Here) and Walker+1 (Gold Standard Marquette).


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: IceSpear on October 24, 2018, 12:28:29 pm
Throw it in the trash. Reuters is pretty much on par with Survey Monkey.

I'd unironically take SurveyMonkey over Reuters. But maybe that's just because SurveyMonkey has spoiled us by mostly doing a disappearance act for this election, while Reuters continues to churn out garbage weekly.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 25, 2018, 10:33:21 am
Walker is gone. Finally.

Wouldn't be so sure... If this holds until election day we could be seeing a Ron Johnson situation again.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: AOC for President 2032 on October 25, 2018, 10:35:48 am
Walker is gone. Finally.

Wouldn't be so sure... If this holds until election day we could be seeing a Ron Johnson situation again.
Yep, I don't see how this is good news at all. If it was the opposite situation, we'd see everyone saying the trend is going the Dems' way. I'm thinking this is Ron Johnson too...with a bit of Evan Bayh thrown in.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on October 25, 2018, 11:30:44 am
Walker is gone. Finally.

Wouldn't be so sure... If this holds until election day we could be seeing a Ron Johnson situation again.

I'm not denying that Walker could win, but is this really an apt comparison? Virtually no one outside of Atlas has been writing Walker off as dead (most pundits thought he was heavily favored until pretty recently), and most think this race is a Toss-Up. Also, given what's happened since 2016, I'm not inclined to think that undecided voters and Independents will break very heavily Republican. Again, he's definitely still in the race, but I don't see the parallel.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 25, 2018, 11:36:35 am
Walker is gone. Finally.

Wouldn't be so sure... If this holds until election day we could be seeing a Ron Johnson situation again.

I'm not denying that Walker could win, but is this really an apt comparison? Virtually no one outside of Atlas has been writing Walker off as dead (most pundits thought he was heavily favored until pretty recently), and most think this race is a Toss-Up. Also, given what's happened since 2016, I'm not inclined to think that undecided voters and Independents will break very heavily Republican. Again, he's definitely still in the race, but I don't see the parallel.

I'm moreso talking about the polls, which all have Evers ahead, rather than the "experts" and conventional wisdom. I think Evers is still favored because of the national environment, but that 12 point split between Baldwin and Walker in the latest poll should be concerning for Evers's chances.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on October 25, 2018, 12:15:08 pm
Like I said, I disagree. There is NO way Walker is surviving while Baldwin is leading by 12 points in such a polarized political environment and a very polarized state like WI.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Morningside Heights Millionaire on October 25, 2018, 02:51:05 pm
Like I said, I disagree. There is NO way Walker is surviving while Baldwin is leading by 12 points in such a polarized political environment and a very polarized state like WI.

True, but that's because Baldwin is not leading by 12 and could very well lose to Vukmir.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Pollster on October 25, 2018, 03:15:59 pm
Why has nobody acknowledged yet that only 8% of this sample are independents?


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Badger on October 25, 2018, 07:26:06 pm
Walker is gone. Finally.

Not so fast, that's a statistical tie. I think Evers is favored, but not guaranteed to win.

"Inside the margin of error" statistical tie is not a thing.

Liberals:
Ignoring biology on gender
Ignoring math on statistics

Right-wingers:
Just generally f****** stupid


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Badger on October 25, 2018, 07:28:23 pm
Throw it in the trash. Reuters is pretty much on par with Survey Monkey.

As I noted in another spread this evening, 5:38 gives them a B+ rating with a 0.6 in house democratic mean bias. How exactly do you base saying they're so crappy? Serious question.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Badger on October 25, 2018, 07:29:50 pm
#Below50 Evers is collapsing and everyone is quibbling over margin of error. Face it. Non-Baldwin Dems can no longer win statewide in Wisconsin. National Dems have figuratively spit on this state, beginning with their Neoliberal Goldwater-supporting queen Hillary.

So, now the most recent polls show Evers+3 (Here) and Walker+1 (Gold Standard Marquette).

I had to reread this several times before I realized that, astonishingly, you're actually serious about this post.

Yes, if only Wisconsin Democrats could only run meat and potatoes conservative tradition minded Democrats like Baldwin they would win all the time.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: libertpaulian on October 25, 2018, 07:29:55 pm
Throw it in the trash. Reuters is pretty much on par with Survey Monkey.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Survey Monkey was the ONLY poll to show a late surge for Eric Holcomb in the IN-GOV race while everyone else (including myself) said John Gregg was coasting to victory.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on October 25, 2018, 07:54:15 pm
I'll be less complacent if the next MU law poll gets released on October 31 shows Walker leading again or tied with Evers.


Title: Re: WI Reuters/Ipsos/UVA: Evers +3
Post by: cvparty on October 26, 2018, 03:21:20 pm
the replies in this thread...woo lordt