Talk Elections

Lean R

Leans Runoff, which helps Kemp a bit.

Kemp is not going to get 11% of the black vote.

Runoff

lol, wait, what?!  Yeah, this poll's got a couple flaws in it.

looks like a runoff, but I cannot draw a conclusion from there. In fact, it just looks like it will be a bigger tossup for the runoff.

Yeah.

These are toss up numbers though given the hard inelastic republican tilt of Georgia, I'd say tilt-r.

Blacks only made up 25% of the LIKELY VOTERS polled for this and Abrams will easily clear 90% of the black vote. Trash.

VT, is gonna be technically a runoff, too. Due to the fact, if Scott doesn't reach 50% and Democratic controlled legislature will install the Democratic

I don't see how Kemp clears 40% with 18-29s, either.

It's nice to see her breaking 40% with non-college and 60 and up, though.

She's getting 31% of white voters here only reason she's trailing is the wonky black vote #'s.

This makes perfectly sense as Marist estimates the effect of Mr Kemp's voter suppression tactics (Perfect match applied to minority voters, discarding VBM, purging the rolls of minority voters).

If she gets 31% of the white vote on Election Day, she's got this thing in the bag.  There's no way she underperforms Obama with the black vote, especially with Drumpf sitting in the White House.

What was the last one at?

Looks like Marist/NBC expected y'all's criticism:

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1055205995650211846

It's a tossup. But I'd say it leans towards a runoff, so who knows after that.

It's amazing how red Georgia (and some other southern states) still is despite being very diverse. Voter suppression is alive and well in that state.

Right now, it's definitely looking like there will be a runoff, and I'm guessing that it'll be a nailbiter for Kemp, but Abrams still has a chance.

This could very well end up being the IL-GOV 2014 of the cycle.  The dominant party in the state leads in most of the polls, but the polls fail to capture the demographics in favor of the out-party (in Rauner's case, it was moderate collar county voters who came home to their ancestral party; in Abrams' case, it's suburban rebels against Trump, as well as minority and youth voters who normally don't vote in mid-terms, or even any election at all).

Lean/Likely Runoff,  Likely R

Shift those elements to where they should be and the top-lines are basically the same, however.

I think Mein Kemp will lose due to pollsters underestimating minority turnout on election day

Stop polling Georgia. We know it's just going to be a tie or Kemp +1-2 every time.

Yes, I'm ready for some polls of Ohio.

R+1 = Lean R
D+5 = Tossup

???

But isn't it possible if the poll is off by showing a higher than likely level of support among blacks for kemp, that it could likewise be wrong by showing a higher level of support among whites and Youth for Abrams than really exists?

Kemp is running a campaign that would be suitable for the Georgia of 20 years ago.  Abrams is running a campaign that is suitable for the Georgia that is to come.  She's also reaching out to 18-29s and treating them as if they have issues that need to be addressed.  I don't think Kemp is as youth-focused as she is.  Also, "white" in Georgia doesn't mean the gun-toting hick like it used to.  It also means the business executive in Marietta, the lawyer in Lawrenceville, or the news anchor in Columbus.  Not to mention a lot of whites from the Northeast, Midwest, and (a small smattering from) the West Coast are pouring into Metro Atlanta as well as some of the micro-cities.

Perhaps other Georgia posters can enlighten me on that.

All true. However, I think the most important words in your post are "the Georgia that is to come. I fear that the state just isn't there yet. Though if for no other reason camps Shameless voter suppression tactics and, above all, it's patently unfair 50% + 1 runoff rule, is going to stop her.