Talk Elections

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/26/ut-tt-poll-ted-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-texas-senate/

Cruz 51
O'Rourke 45

Looks exactly right.

Okay we get it. Cruz is ahead by mid single digits.

Can we get non internal polls out of Indiana and Missouri now?

and WV

Like you'd believe WV polls, lol.

Not unless they look right, but I'd still like to see more.

Fake news, they didn't poll my Beto lawn sign.

And Beto is net negative in favorability(44/49) while Cruz is (51/44)....so much for running only positive ads.

They probably didn't poll its megacoattails either, huh?

Or "so much for the idea of Texas seeing any Democrat favorably or any Republican unfavorably in the year 2018."

I mean, they haven't elected a statewide Democrat since like 1992, right? This is hardly a new phenomenon. It's actually impressive Beto is doing as well as he is. But a win was always a pipe dream. As in you had to be smoking some good pipe to dream it.

The other Republicans down ballot are winning by double digits, even corrupt insane trash like Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton. But I'm sure Beto's 6 point deficit is only because he ran ads that Atlas didn't approve of and he could be winning if only he hired Atlas Production Studios. ::)

1994 was the last time they actually won statewide office.

2002 was the last competitive race in which John Sharp obtained 46% of the vote for Lt. Governor.

His map would not resemble anything like Beto's win today. Sharp did not even get Harris County.

Valdez is weighing down Dems down the ballot.

Can we get MO and IN polls instead

LOL, Atlas always finds a way to blame a woman somehow. Now Valdez's Weak Candidatails™ are a thing.

LMAO

Beto is the only reason Valdez isnt losing by even a larger margin.

She's too far left for TX Politics

olawakandi is the completely sincere KenM of Atlas

Despite this poll, Beto is campaigning in TX and this isn't the end to be all. FL, NV, TX, and AZ underestimate Black and Latino strength. Even in OH GOV, McConnell has a 25% approval and Trump is ethically challenged, in a Dem wave year

You don't say? I thought for sure Beto would drop out and endorse Cruz after seeing this poll!

Texas remains a firmly Republican state. I don't think Democrats will win a statewide election here for several more years, and it will probably not go Democratic at the presidential level until the 2030s at the earliest. A lot of time and money has been wasted by the party that could have been invested into more winnable races, like Arizona and Nevada.

It is true, there are large #s of Beto signs and T-shirts outside of Texas.

The University of Texas and Texas Tribune are unlikely to poll MO or IN.

McCaskill is probably done. But, in TX, a Democratic can make up a 5 point deficit with Latinos and Blacks

Lean R. Cruz probably has this, but Beto can win an upset.



What? This is the most weird post I ever read on this forum. A high quality #analysis fully on topic of the thread.

Likely R race remains Likely R, no need to poll this anymore. Next.

Everything in mid-single digits is not "likely R/D", it's lean at best. They need to continue polling here. It makes more sense than these garbage CA-Gov polls, that are dumped all the time.

Texas is more likely to cote democrat than California is to vote Republican. The 2020 nominee must campaign here not just for money but to keep the grassroots motivated. It will happen.

So why is MT-SEN not Lean D at best, then?

We’ve gotten more than enough polls of this race showing Cruz with a mid to (more often) high single-digit lead and–more importantly–above 50%, while O'Rourke has only led in like two out of 30 polls of this race, and those were junk polls anyway (Reuters and TX Lyceum, IIRC?). Even Democratic-leaning pollsters have shown Cruz with a consistent advantage in this race. Barring a Democratic tidal wave of historic proportions, his seat isn’t going to flip, and I maintain that Heitkamp and Bredesen are more likely to win than O'Rourke.

Pretty much.

Barring some unforeseen development in these final days, Cruz is probably going to be reelected.

MT-Sen is tilt D or toss-up, although I think Tester will win reelection.

Larry Hogan didn't lead single poll in 2014 except the very last one and still won an upset. Not saying this is likely to happen this time, but single-digit leads are no reason to stop polling because "it's over". Trendlines matter equally, especially in the final weeks and days.

Cruz advantage, with a chance of an upset if O'Rourke can get many to turn out for him.

TN and MS b and TX are tilt R races, but upsets can happen. Just like IN, WI and Pa we're tilt D and GOP won them.

It should be Lean D.

Yeah, maybe I went a little too far, but I take issue with your Hogan comparison since there weren’t nearly as many polls of MD-GOV 2014 in the run-up to the election as in this state, the Hogan race didn’t receive disproportionate media attention, turnout was far lower, etc. There would have to be a pretty substantial polling error for O'Rourke to win, which I certainly wouldn’t rule out by any means, but I also wouldn’t want to rely on it. I definitely don’t get why people are so convinced that he’s more likely to win than Bredesen or Heitkamp. Sure, TX could very well end up being closer than ND/TN, but quite frankly I don’t think O'Rourke is the right candidate to win a federal race in a state which is still very tough terrain for Democrats.

I never understand why people complain about pollsters who are obviously exclusive to the State, polling the State..... in most years this would be one of the the three TX polls we get lol

It's not the fact SN cheerlead, he thinks that Dems are strong enough to carry WI, Pa and MI, and those three states only has gone GOP 1x since 1988.

I don’t believe this poll because it doesn’t have decimals...