Talk Elections

Stabenow (D, inc.)   52
James (R)               46


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/MI_8-18_Press_Release_10-26-18.pdf


Isn't Mitchell a Republican pollster? Let me know if it is so I'll put it in the title.

Wow, this really has tightened considerably.

This is probably a "coming home" effect for Michigan Republicans, though the lack of early voting will make any late momentum in Michigan more apparent (like in 2016 in the Midwest)

I'm still cautious about the race really being this close, but if James does in fact lose by only single digits against a popular incumbent in a Democratic year in a blue-leaning state, that would suggest to me that Michigan is still very much a battleground in 2020.

No, Mitchell is just one of those special Michigan pollsters. They had it at +9 three weeks ago and +13 in mid-September.

Mitchell is a Republican-affiliated person iirc

Okay, sure, maybe this race has tightened, but notice that Stabenow is... how should I put it... above 50 percent. If there was a race to be found here, Republicans and Democrats alike would've quickly started to spend here, and they haven't. Sorry to break it to James fans, but not every election is going to go just like 2016.

Race hasn't tightened! Racist trumpists are not going to vote for a black man. Macomb county that trump flipped? It will vote for Stabenow comfortably. You reap what you sew. You spew racism, your base wont elect black people.
17-18 points

The RNCC has also shown no interest in investing in James, which suggests they don’t buy the race being close either.

Hopefully when James loses he’ll fade into oblivion like Darryl Glenn and Alan Keyes.

lol Stabenow actually does better with blacks (82-18) than Whitmer (80-18).

That's within the MOE though.

I don't think 18% of black voters are voting Republican in MI, but that likely is just a combination of the normal MOE (sampling error) and measurement error (people checking the wrong box).

I didn’t claim that, but it’s certainly not the 15- to 20-point Stabenow wipeout we were told was guaranteed to happen. And the only reason I have it as Likely D is because James is a far stronger candidate than Vukmir or Barletta (which I have as Safe D) and running in a more GOP-friendly state than Hugin (also Safe D), I don’t think he’ll actually win or that there will be a 2016 redux here.

I wasn't saying that you were, I was referring to a very specific poster. While James might be a better candidate, I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference. Maybe it means he loses by 8-9 instead of 12-13, but that's about it.

4 polls have it at least 7 or under in the last week. It's close to within the MOE right now. Also James will win Macomb County. Oakland Stabenow will likely win. This race will come down to Wayne County and how much of the black vote James can get as I think James will do fairly well in the western part of the state. This race will be closer than the MN or WI senate race. Michigan is turning into a more red state than Minnesota or Wisconsin.

You're really bad at trolling.

Even this poll shows Stabenow is getting 82% of the black vote.

The African-American community is turning against the democratic party. They are realizing it's  bunch of yuppie limousine liberals who care nothing about them. Trump is getting them jobs. Democrats only care about gay marriage, global warming and standing up for illegal immigrants. They have no platform other than a far left ideology and identity politics. The democrats used to be for the working class and focused on economics.

I just don’t think Stabenow is the political goddess people are making her out to be or that MI is a deep blue state again, it’s just that she got really lucky with the national environment this year. I’ll stick with my Likely D rating even if people think it’s ridiculous, and I am also a little more cautious than most other posters here, which is why I have ND/MS-Special/TN still all as Toss-ups (hardly Republican hack ratings, but whatever).

Fair enough, that is at least consistent. I don't think she'll win easily because she's a political goddess, rather because if the GCB is anything like D+7-8, a D+1 state won't be especially close, even if Michigan is starting to trend rightward.

Stabenow is not liked here in Michigan. I agree that she is riding the anti-Trump wave and so is Whitmer but I still think they can lose. They are def both favored but I do think the last few weeks I have noticed a big increase in GOP enthusiasm. Despite what democrats say RALLIES MATTER. Having 5,000 people at a rally for a guy who was an unknown a few months ago is pretty impressive. James also now has 82 percent name ID in the state. I think there is a possibility that the polls are not picking up his true level of support. I am not buying that the democrat turnout will be big this year I think it will be more than normal but there's a lot of evidence that their enthusiasm has waned after Kavanaugh and with Trump's rising approval rating it has to be souring some democrats from wanting to participate.

I agree that Stabenow is overrated, but high Republican turnout isn’t going to be enough in a state like MI if Independents break heavily for Democrats. And even Trump only won MI by like .2% against one of the least popular Democratic candidates ever, so it makes sense that Democrats would be favored in MI in a more favorable year for their party.

The latest poll has James winning with independents I believe and doing real well with 18-29. It is looking like James may have a better chance than Schuette.

If that were the case, then Abdul El-Sayed would have creamed Whitmer in the primary. This idea that Kavanaugh hurt Democrats is just plain bullsh**t and it’s actually turning voters against the Republican Party because despite what the GOP echo chamber keeps saying, the vast majority of Americans believe Blasey Ford and opposed Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

Here’s Debbie Stabenow’s map in 2006:

()

And 2012:

()

That’s what’s about to happen. Debbie Stabenow is the most well-known politician in this state and she is an entrenched incumbent. She has done nothing to cause her popularity to wane, and in a blue wave year voters are not going to turn out an incumbent Democrat with a high name recognition and approval rating. If her support were actually tanking as you say, then she would have gone negative on him a long time ago. She won’t win every county in the state like Levin used to, but she’s almost to the point of invincibility that Levin enjoyed for his last four terms. And as for the black vote question, Black voters don’t go and vote against their own interests and vote Republican just because the GOP candidate is black. John James won’t get a single African-American vote besides his own.

You are truly delusional if you think Kavanaugh helped the democrats. Even MSNBC is saying the GOP got a big boost from it. Americans like winners and democrats aren't winning anything lately. GOP is dominating all the political fights.

Please tell us more about how Black voters will vote for a Black man running as a Republican who also ran an ad with a swastika as red meat for the Republican base. Tell us more.

Most polls since things have calmed down say that the Kavanaugh confirmation has energized Democrats more than Republicans.

It physically hurts reading whatever SN has to say.

Well, it's basically "Republicans don't care at all about policy or how lawmakers affect the lives of Americans. It's all about 'winning' and triggering the libs" Exhibit A. It may be painful to read, but it's important to remind ourselves where we are right now.

Why do people keep saying blacks are leaving the Dem party when they were crucial in helping them in their two biggest wins in the past year VA/AL. Just look at the exit polls there are no signs of lost support.

Republicans have been making those claims forever now, and it never turns out to be true.

I'm Black and I would vote for Debbie Stabenow 10 times out of 10 over John James.

Also, the overwhelmingly majority (higher than 80%) of Black voters are still voting for Democrats. That's not changing for the foreseeable future, no matter what Trump, Kanye, Candace Owens or Republicans say.

Perhaps you guys will take this race more seriously now.

I can buy that maybe James could scare Stabenow by keeping the race within single digits. What I don't buy I is that he'll pull an upset. It's not the right year to begin with.

Yeah, that's why a lot of Democrat leads have been whittled down in most polls, because Democrats were more energized than Republicans when it came down to Kavanaugh.

The enthusiasm gap is even. I do not get where these posters are getting their information. All the house polls I have seen have shown tightening since Kavanaugh..

They look at the national numbers, not the battleground numbers. Makes sense to me. If you poll CA and NYC you'll get the results you want.

D+6 on two polls is probably enough to keep it in the Likely D column for now.

The polls could be overinflating her support

Stabenow will win😁

Nope she will lose.

You are completely delusional. Stabenow losing would be like Tom Coburn losing in Oklahoma in 2010.

Stabenow is not as safe as Coburn was, but she is still in a very strong position. However, if this were a Clinton midterm, this race would be even closer.

This race is clearly tightening, but its probably too late.

I'm probably more cautious than the average person, so keep that in mind. MI is right now likely D. I have Wisconsin and Ohio also at likely D (but they're safer right now than Michigan), because we haven't seen a poll recently from those states, and i expect some polls in those states might show the race will be (barely) decided in single-digits. PA is solid D. Don't take polls too literally. I had Michigan as toss-up in 2016 because i didn't believe the polls in the Rust Belt were right, because during the primaries the polls there were terrible, and because the states weren't polled enough, and because i truly believed in the Rust Belt electoral college strategy (and turning out the WWC voters). Remember that Trump anticipated all of this, when he saw how Ventura was elected as governor in MN in 1998. He knew exactly what area would make him president (and of course the national environment in 2016 helped him).

It's worth noting that this is a mid-term and that this is very different to the 2016 elections. 1) There is no Trump on the ballot. 2) There is no Clinton on the ballot. 3) This is a mid-term election, with different turn-out and with actual politicians on the ballot. Trump basically carried Michigan with his anti-Washington and populist message, so most likely some of them will skip those elections. And 2020 might be very different from 2018 again for the same reasons mentioned again. So, if Stabenow win with a margin in double digits, don't assume that Trump will lose in Michigan in 2020, even if polls show him behind or with a low approval rating. I'm guessing that Trump in the polls when anticipating the 2016 election would have had low approval ratings in those states as well. This is why i'm skeptical of Democrats flipping Iowa and Ohio in 2020 if they aren't going to change their electoral strategy and platform (more focused on the economy, less on social issues and bashing Trump).

we shall see I think James can still win but he needs Trump to come