Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: MT Treasurer on October 26, 2018, 06:49:56 pm



Title: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 26, 2018, 06:49:56 pm
48% Gretchen Whitmer (D)
43% Bill Schuette (R)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/MI_8-18_Press_Release_10-26-18.pdf


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Politician on October 26, 2018, 06:59:13 pm
Safe D->Likely D, I guess.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: SN2903 on October 26, 2018, 07:20:29 pm
GOP coming home in MI. Gonna be close in Gov and Senate race! Dems are tanking


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: SN2903 on October 26, 2018, 07:22:10 pm
2 polls in a row where Schuette is within the MOI


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Pittsburgh For Kamala on October 26, 2018, 07:46:19 pm
2 polls in a row where Schuette is within the MOI

Let me be blunt here: neither James nor Schuette are going to win. Every single fundamental is working against them and every independent pollster has them ahead significantly. And no, “muh 2016” is not a good argument because Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate running in a tepid environment for Democrats.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: SN2903 on October 26, 2018, 07:56:32 pm
2 polls in a row where Schuette is within the MOI

Let me be blunt here: neither James nor Schuette are going to win. Every single fundamental is working against them and every independent pollster has them ahead significantly. And no, “muh 2016” is not a good argument because Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate running in a tepid environment for Democrats.
The democratic brand isn't much better now than 2016. You can't discount the big movement towards the GOP in the last 3 weeks. Polls could not be accurately measuring it.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Pittsburgh For Kamala on October 26, 2018, 07:59:14 pm
2 polls in a row where Schuette is within the MOI

Let me be blunt here: neither James nor Schuette are going to win. Every single fundamental is working against them and every independent pollster has them ahead significantly. And no, “muh 2016” is not a good argument because Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate running in a tepid environment for Democrats.
The democratic brand isn't much better now than 2016. You can't discount the big movement towards the GOP in the last 3 weeks. Polls could not be accurately measuring it.

Are you kidding me? Whitmer and Stabenow are the strongest possible candidates Michigan Dems have to offer. There was a clear contrast between Whitmer and Schuette in those debates and you’re an idiot if you think Schuette has anything on Whitmer.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: SN2903 on October 26, 2018, 10:23:14 pm
2 polls in a row where Schuette is within the MOI

Let me be blunt here: neither James nor Schuette are going to win. Every single fundamental is working against them and every independent pollster has them ahead significantly. And no, “muh 2016” is not a good argument because Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate running in a tepid environment for Democrats.
The democratic brand isn't much better now than 2016. You can't discount the big movement towards the GOP in the last 3 weeks. Polls could not be accurately measuring it.

Are you kidding me? Whitmer and Stabenow are the strongest possible candidates Michigan Dems have to offer. There was a clear contrast between Whitmer and Schuette in those debates and you’re an idiot if you think Schuette has anything on Whitmer.
Whitmer came across as a phony and I think the Granholm 2.0 thing is starting to resonate. People do not want their taxes raised. I think the poll numbers for her and Stabenow even the latest ones are still overinflated. I honestly think both races are within the MOE right now.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Invisible Obama on October 26, 2018, 10:24:25 pm
What is MOI? If you mean margin of error then you should know that error is spelled with an E.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Silurian on October 26, 2018, 10:26:44 pm
What is MOI? If you mean margin of error then you should know that error is spelled with an E.

I dunno what SN2903 means by it, but I think it means Margin Of Insanity in this particular discussion.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: SN2903 on October 26, 2018, 10:28:32 pm
What is MOI? If you mean margin of error then you should know that error is spelled with an E.

I dunno what SN2903 means by it, but I think it means Margin Of Insanity in this particular discussion.
DeSantis and Scott will in FL. FL is not going communist.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 26, 2018, 10:35:16 pm
What is MOI? If you mean margin of error then you should know that error is spelled with an E.

I dunno what SN2903 means by it, but I think it means Margin Of Insanity in this particular discussion.
DeSantis and Scott will in FL. FL is not going communist.

I can tell you're delusional when you think Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum are communists.

Have you ever met an actual communist in your life or is anyone to the left of John McCain a communist to you?


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Silurian on October 26, 2018, 10:38:53 pm
I can tell you're delusional when you think Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum are communists.

Have you ever met an actual communist in your life or is anyone to the left of John McCain a communist to you?

The political divide is like frames of reference in space. Sometimes people don't know whether they are moving faster than the other person, if at all. Likewise, Republicans see a big gulf between the parties, and it's really there, but it's not what they think it is. Republicans have moved so far to the right over the Obama era that many of them legitimately have no idea that the Democrats haven't shifted sharply left (not quite yet, anyway), it's them who have shifted far right. That is made worse when they don't even actually know what "communism" means.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Pittsburgh For Kamala on October 26, 2018, 10:40:18 pm
What is MOI? If you mean margin of error then you should know that error is spelled with an E.

I dunno what SN2903 means by it, but I think it means Margin Of Insanity in this particular discussion.
DeSantis and Scott will in FL. FL is not going communist.

I would take Limo Liberal back into this thread in a heartbeat over you.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Cory Booker on October 27, 2018, 12:22:32 am
Blacks in DTW and in Miami assumed Clinton was gonna win, would they stayed home. This is a change election and Kavanaugh set off Latinos, Arabs and BLacks, when he was confirmed. That's why Gillum and Whitmer will win


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: SN2903 on October 27, 2018, 09:21:56 am
What is MOI? If you mean margin of error then you should know that error is spelled with an E.

I dunno what SN2903 means by it, but I think it means Margin Of Insanity in this particular discussion.
DeSantis and Scott will in FL. FL is not going communist.

I can tell you're delusional when you think Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum are communists.

Have you ever met an actual communist in your life or is anyone to the left of John McCain a communist to you?
I wasn't being literal but Gillum is a socialist and he favors impeachment of Trump. Florida is no gonna vote for someone like that for governor.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: IceSpear on October 27, 2018, 02:48:04 pm
Dang, looks like Schuette really is getting a dead cat bounce. I was hoping Whitmer could run up the score more.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on October 27, 2018, 03:55:08 pm
2 polls in a row where Schuette is within the MOI

Let me be blunt here: neither James nor Schuette are going to win. Every single fundamental is working against them and every independent pollster has them ahead significantly. And no, “muh 2016” is not a good argument because Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate running in a tepid environment for Democrats.
The democratic brand isn't much better now than 2016. You can't discount the big movement towards the GOP in the last 3 weeks. Polls could not be accurately measuring it.

Are you kidding me? Whitmer and Stabenow are the strongest possible candidates Michigan Dems have to offer. There was a clear contrast between Whitmer and Schuette in those debates and you’re an idiot if you think Schuette has anything on Whitmer.
Whitmer came across as a phony and I think the Granholm 2.0 thing is starting to resonate. People do not want their taxes raised. I think the poll numbers for her and Stabenow even the latest ones are still overinflated. I honestly think both races are within the MOE right now.

I can almost guarantee you that the Snyder brand is much more toxic than the Granholm brand (and rightfully so). I can't I understand why conservatives think that budget issues ten years ago are more present in the Michigan electorate's mind than the Flint water crisis and Snyder's terrible approvals.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Figueira on October 27, 2018, 08:04:15 pm
This pollster was rated D- by 538.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: New Frontier on October 27, 2018, 08:31:13 pm
What is MOI? If you mean margin of error then you should know that error is spelled with an E.

I dunno what SN2903 means by it, but I think it means Margin Of Insanity in this particular discussion.
DeSantis and Scott will in FL. FL is not going communist.

I can tell you're delusional when you think Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum are communists.

Have you ever met an actual communist in your life or is anyone to the left of John McCain a communist to you?
I wasn't being literal but Gillum is a socialist and he favors impeachment of Trump. Florida is no gonna vote for someone like that for governor.
Gillum is not a socialist either.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Wolverine22 on October 27, 2018, 09:12:29 pm
Mark my words: this is going to be a VA-2017 redux. Everyone is wringing their hands about tanking poll numbers, and then a wave crashes over the state, the Democrat wins by a sizable margin, and everyone wondered what the big deal was afterward.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 27, 2018, 09:14:25 pm
Is there any race in the country that’s NOT going to be a VA-GOV 2017 redux?


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Gass3268 on October 27, 2018, 09:14:35 pm

None of these Michigan pollsters are very good. They were bad in 2012 (overhyped Romney) and they were bad in 2016 (overhyped Clinton). It would be nice to see NBC/Marist jump back in here.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: IceSpear on October 27, 2018, 09:18:29 pm
Is there any race in the country that’s NOT going to be a VA-GOV 2017 redux?

NV-Sen and NV-Gov, duh.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Hammy on October 27, 2018, 09:23:40 pm
What is MOI? If you mean margin of error then you should know that error is spelled with an E.

I dunno what SN2903 means by it, but I think it means Margin Of Insanity in this particular discussion.
DeSantis and Scott will in FL. FL is not going communist.

I can tell you're delusional when you think Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum are communists.

Have you ever met an actual communist in your life or is anyone to the left of John McCain a communist to you?
I wasn't being literal but Gillum is a socialist and he favors impeachment of Trump. Florida is no gonna vote for someone like that for governor.

How are his views on Trump's impeachment relevant here? Last time I checked, governors don't have any say in the impeachment process.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Cory Booker on October 27, 2018, 09:43:13 pm
MI is a bellwether, without MI, Trump isn't gonna win.


Title: Re: MI-Mitchell: Whitmer +5
Post by: Joshua on October 27, 2018, 11:53:14 pm
Is the RGA back in Michigan?