Talk Elections

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5bd44a031905f4f40ea61c1c/1540639237597/MOScout+Weekly+Poll+10.26.18.pdf

Hawley leads by 4. 49 to 45

Galloway leads over Saundra McDowell 48 to 38%

wow

This is becoming a f**king nightmare

Hawley is the frontrunner, but it's not 7, it's 4

Don't feel too bad; she'll have more time to spend with her private jets

I don’t care. The senate is on a verge of a red wave and be filled with douchebags like Hawley

I am sticking with my McCaskill +1 prediction.

The Senate was never tilt Democratic, anyways

I never thought we’d win it either but I always thought 50-50 split of winning NV, AZ but losing ND was the likeliest outcome. But now it looks like we’re going to lose ND, MO, IN, and maybe FL if we don’t start picking up our EV while only winning NV and even that is on shaky grounds.

I think we are fine in Indiana,  Florida,  and Montana. I'm willing to say that North Dakota and Missouri might be out of reach and that its become more important than ever to improve in Florida,  Georgia,  Arizona,  Nevada, and eventually Texas.

Arizona looks like it’s on the verge of being out of reach. Florida should be alright but it’s scary seeing the gop do well with in person voting

This is Remington (R)

Inside Elections was right to move this to Tilt R. We'll see just how high Democratic enthusiasm is, though. Maybe, just maybe, it'll get McCaskill to win by something like 1.5%.

The funny thing is that though a good-ish poll in GA-22 for Democrats improved Republican chances, this poll improved Democratic chances in fivethirtyeight.com.

Wait really? Did they adjust it or something?

They adjusted it to R+.8.

I knew Remington had an R lean but I didn’t realize it was that much of a house effrct

Are people just trolling in this thread or...

Remington is an R pollster. Pretty sure they've had it at Hawley +3 or +4 the entire cycle.

The Senate was never supposed to be good for Democrats. It's the 2012 Obama reelection class that extremely overachieved that's up. Republicans have very little to defend (AZ and NV).

They should pick up a few seats.

It's Remington lol

Yikes, McCaskill still has a chance, but it's not looking great.

Lean R, the Kavanaugh vote is doing it in.

I love how the same people who take every Democratic-friendly poll and even Democratic internals at face value always rush to remind us that (R)emington is basically just cooking up R-friendly numbers and shouldn’t be trusted, even though their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Greitens and Trump significantly. But sure, go ahead and underestimate McCaskill's (or Heitkamp's, Tester's, and Donnelly's) vulnerability to your heart's content, I’m sure it’s just Republicans being overconfident again.

McCaskill win by 1-1,5%

PPP poll, commissioned for a D-PAC: "Looks alright to me."

Remington poll: "Well this is obviously a Republican poll so we can't trust it."

Seriously.

Remington definitely has a more mixed record than PPP. I'm interested in seeing what other polling we get before election day.

A lot of Dems seriously buy into the "reality has a liberal bias" idea.

ND and IN are surely gone. WVa and MO are iffy though.

What are the 538bhouse effects?

Sad to see that we have only gotten R polls so far, no neutral ones. Why can’t Marist, Q, Yougov,or even Emerson just come down to the state?

Yeah, Republicans on this site never say that PPP (D) polls are biased.

I buy that McCaskill is a bit behind, and I don't think this poll is necessarily biased toward Republicans, but I'd still call this race a Toss-Up.

I honestly don't see people take Democrat internals at face value. This is an R leaning polling outfit that has consistently shown Hawley ahead by 2-4 points. I don't think anyone is underestimating McCaskill's vulnerability - this is a pure tossup.

Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.

Really? Emerson is garbage. Remington is a Republican pollster but they run circles around Emerson.

Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well.

Arizona isn’t looking good

That too. Personally, I still think Sinema will win, but it will be extremely close.

There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives?

Im kinda glad polling has been sparse. Makes election night much more unpredictable and exciting.

Polling in general is in a pretty fast decline. 2014 had roughly double the amount of polls 2018 has had, 2010 roughly triple.

Why is polling in decline?

The contest will be within 2 ing percentage points. She is not dead yet. Give McCaskill credit for polling so well despite poor favorable ratings.

Well, it’s pretty much a lock that the Dems will win a majority in the House.  Even the lower band of projections there puts them at a net gain of 25 seats...a couple more than they need.  It seems likely they’ll get more than that.

But this Senate map was a very bad one for Dems.  A lot of Red-State Ds up for re-election at a time of increasing polarization.

Probably a combination of a few things. Big polling misses shaking confidence in the industry, the decline of the media in general leading them to cut costs (polls cost money), aggregators like 538 and RCP making individual polls less impactful, etc.

Pollsters and big media companies care very little about small to average sized states in the middle of the country. That's why we get 16 polls for Florida and Texas but next to nothing for Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, etc.

perhaps not, but I use it for emphasis. I would really take any pollster at this point that wasnt an R internal, for thats all we have of the race for the last month.

This is nightmare-lite. The true nightmare is where Hillary wins and Republicans have about 60 Senators after this election. And that Supreme Court seat is still vacant. And Republicans make gains in the control of the state governments so that they can increase gerrymandering even more for the next redistricting.

You’re in love with Hillary aren’t you?

Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells.

Garret Archer mainly. Like Ralston he does EV #’s and the GOP is nearing a 100k firewall. On top of that this week has seen Sinema lose the endorsement of the state troopers and a polling firm that had her up 5 come out and say that the previously mentioned EV has been so good for the GOP that there poll was wrong and that the race is heading in the R direction

Okay, first of all, EV is not that important in every state just because it has a large influence in Nevada. An EV firewall won't matter if Sinema and the Blue Wave brings out tons of new voters or additional Dems. Second of all, her "loss" of a state trooper endorsement will have NO effect on the race despite what you claim.

And where exactly did Data Orbital claim that their poll was wrong because of early voting?? You need to cite it lmao.

I would like to refer you to the AZ-07 special election early vote.

Most of the time yes but the EV in Arizona is so lopsided that it’s impossible to dismiss. Also the Data orbital article flat out states in the first paragraph thatvits EV influenced http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

That just as easily could of been a fluke. Forgive me but I’m not holding my breath when the arguments right now for Sinema is more or less the same Hillary argument of expecting this big gop cross over

I bring up the election because of your point, that the R early vote is high. The problem with your statement is that we dont know who is voting. As we saw in AZ-07, there are clearly Ds who still have R registration. We saw this in OH-12 as well. The problem with looking at just the straight party registration is that you miss that in areas that saw a shift towards Clinton, like the two previous districts and areas like Orange County CA.

I should also say that the R advantage since Thursday, the date of the article, has been constantly shrinking.

Thank you!

Also George Khalaf, the guy from the article and president of Data Orbital, is hot.

AND with a little research I discovered his page and noticed he is a former political director for the AZ GOP! Now that puts this all into context.

Tossup -> Lean R.

Likely R

Try +2.  It is trending for Hawley.

R pollsters are generally wrong in Democratic wave years like this one and tend to show overblown winning margins for Republicans to create an alternative reality that isn't there ...

Incumbent Heidi is losing and McCaskill can lose. It's an anti incumbent year, not just a Dem wave year

I said many months ago - and reiterated a few weeks back - that I thought McCaskill was the weakest in terms of state fundamentals. She isn't in the Plains or (Upper) Midwest, doesn't enjoy the same level of elastic white voters and is arguably the most "Southern" Democrat up for re-election in the Senate. Even before Heitkamp, I think the regional fundamentals suggested McCaskill was the first to go down.

Anyone of the 4 Dems can lose Manchin, Heidi, Donnelly and Mccaskill

They are all gonna lose.

Dems can find a narrow path to majority if only 2/4 loses, and the Dems can win NV, AZ, TN and either MSb or TX will give Dems 51/49 Senate. Dems would rather see Manchin and Heidi lose, due to Manchin voting wrong on Kavanaugh and Heidi is gone, anyways 😁

yep I agree and Stabenow will lose too.

Well, as long as Dems win Missouri State Auditor, who cares about the US Senate?

Jeff Roe is on twitter saying he finally thinks McCaskill is out of tricks and is calling the race easily for Hawley...doesnt seem like the kind of guy who would set his company up for a disappointment, considering his firm does lots of work in MO

According to WaPo and Guy Benson, republican polls have shown Hawley pulling away over the past month

Not getting my hopes up, but watching Heitkamp and McCaskill lose would be great consolation on an otherwise ugly night.

Eh, Mccaskill's campaign certainly isn't behaving like it's not behind, she also has trailed in the last 7 public polls of this race

I am not stating McCaskill is dead yet but it does not look good.

Democrats probably get the consolation prize of state auditor through sheer luck. Still, it is better than nothing. The position that watches the government is a Democrat.

We can not project into future elections. Maybe Democrats can take down Parson who has lower ID. Maybe Democrats can contest the new appointed attorney general.

But Missouri will be very Republican.

Keep in mind that McCaskill will lose while medical marijuana and 12.00 minimum wage landslide in the state.

A democrat who was more popular could have held on.

Seriously, we still havent gotten a single non-partisan poll of the race. Can you guys not start sounding alarm bells every time an R pollster shows Hawley up by 2.

Yeah because internal polling is known for its reliability

I mean let's be honest she's probably trailing

I know, but I prefer to set my expectations low and then perhaps be pleasantly surprised on election day.

I used to allow myself to get emotionally affected by the outcome of elections.  While I still consider myself a Republican, I'm far less of one than I used to be (for various reasons I won't get into here).  I can remember being elated on election nights in 1994, 2000, 2002, and 2004.  Then I got similarly deflated in 2006 and 2008.

I found it did me a world of good to make a concerted effort to detach myself emotionally from politics and elections.  I've had basically the same disposition on every election night since then -- which is probably related to my drift away from my party.