Title: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: jamestroll on October 27, 2018, 08:29:32 AM https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5bd44a031905f4f40ea61c1c/1540639237597/MOScout+Weekly+Poll+10.26.18.pdf
Hawley leads by 4. 49 to 45 Galloway leads over Saundra McDowell 48 to 38% wow Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 27, 2018, 08:31:15 AM This is becoming a f**king nightmare
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 27, 2018, 08:38:52 AM This is becoming a f**king nightmare Hawley is the frontrunner, but it's not 7, it's 4 Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Pandaguineapig on October 27, 2018, 08:39:55 AM This is becoming a f**king nightmare Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 27, 2018, 08:40:25 AM This is becoming a f**king nightmare Hawley is the frontrunner, but it's not 7, it's 4 Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Politician on October 27, 2018, 08:43:03 AM I am sticking with my McCaskill +1 prediction.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 27, 2018, 08:45:31 AM The Senate was never tilt Democratic, anyways
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 27, 2018, 08:50:24 AM The Senate was never tilt Democratic, anyways Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Person Man on October 27, 2018, 08:57:00 AM The Senate was never tilt Democratic, anyways I think we are fine in Indiana, Florida, and Montana. I'm willing to say that North Dakota and Missouri might be out of reach and that its become more important than ever to improve in Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and eventually Texas. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 27, 2018, 09:02:19 AM The Senate was never tilt Democratic, anyways I think we are fine in Indiana, Florida, and Montana. I'm willing to say that North Dakota and Missouri might be out of reach and that its become more important than ever to improve in Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and eventually Texas. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Gass3268 on October 27, 2018, 09:05:29 AM This is Remington (R)
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: SnowLabrador on October 27, 2018, 09:11:41 AM Inside Elections was right to move this to Tilt R. We'll see just how high Democratic enthusiasm is, though. Maybe, just maybe, it'll get McCaskill to win by something like 1.5%.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Person Man on October 27, 2018, 09:36:09 AM The funny thing is that though a good-ish poll in GA-22 for Democrats improved Republican chances, this poll improved Democratic chances in fivethirtyeight.com.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: psychprofessor on October 27, 2018, 09:50:19 AM This is Remington (R) Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: KingSweden on October 27, 2018, 10:07:17 AM The funny thing is that though a good-ish poll in GA-22 for Democrats improved Republican chances, this poll improved Democratic chances in fivethirtyeight.com. Wait really? Did they adjust it or something? Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Person Man on October 27, 2018, 10:09:44 AM The funny thing is that though a good-ish poll in GA-22 for Democrats improved Republican chances, this poll improved Democratic chances in fivethirtyeight.com. Wait really? Did they adjust it or something? They adjusted it to R+.8. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: KingSweden on October 27, 2018, 10:32:21 AM The funny thing is that though a good-ish poll in GA-22 for Democrats improved Republican chances, this poll improved Democratic chances in fivethirtyeight.com. Wait really? Did they adjust it or something? They adjusted it to R+.8. I knew Remington had an R lean but I didn’t realize it was that much of a house effrct Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: wbrocks67 on October 27, 2018, 10:37:53 AM Are people just trolling in this thread or...
Remington is an R pollster. Pretty sure they've had it at Hawley +3 or +4 the entire cycle. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Seriously? on October 27, 2018, 11:15:17 AM The Senate was never supposed to be good for Democrats. It's the 2012 Obama reelection class that extremely overachieved that's up. Republicans have very little to defend (AZ and NV).
They should pick up a few seats. This is becoming a f**king nightmare Hawley is the frontrunner, but it's not 7, it's 4 Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: windjammer on October 27, 2018, 11:20:50 AM It's Remington lol
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Xing on October 27, 2018, 11:26:32 AM Yikes, McCaskill still has a chance, but it's not looking great.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 27, 2018, 11:40:21 AM Lean R, the Kavanaugh vote is doing it in.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: MT Treasurer on October 27, 2018, 12:10:21 PM I love how the same people who take every Democratic-friendly poll and even Democratic internals at face value always rush to remind us that (R)emington is basically just cooking up R-friendly numbers and shouldn’t be trusted, even though their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Greitens and Trump significantly. But sure, go ahead and underestimate McCaskill's (or Heitkamp's, Tester's, and Donnelly's) vulnerability to your heart's content, I’m sure it’s just Republicans being overconfident again.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: 😥 on October 27, 2018, 12:10:32 PM McCaskill win by 1-1,5%
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Skye on October 27, 2018, 12:17:45 PM I love how the same people who take every Democratic-friendly poll and even Democratic internals at face value always rush to remind us that (R)emington is basically just cooking up R-friendly numbers and shouldn’t be trusted, even though their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Greitens and Trump significantly. But sure, go ahead and underestimate McCaskill's (or Heitkamp's, Tester's, and Donnelly's) vulnerability to your heart's content, I’m sure it’s just Republicans being overconfident again. PPP poll, commissioned for a D-PAC: "Looks alright to me." Remington poll: "Well this is obviously a Republican poll so we can't trust it." Seriously. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Ebsy on October 27, 2018, 12:27:57 PM Remington definitely has a more mixed record than PPP. I'm interested in seeing what other polling we get before election day.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: RI on October 27, 2018, 12:28:04 PM I love how the same people who take every Democratic-friendly poll and even Democratic internals at face value always rush to remind us that (R)emington is basically just cooking up R-friendly numbers and shouldn’t be trusted, even though their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Greitens and Trump significantly. But sure, go ahead and underestimate McCaskill's (or Heitkamp's, Tester's, and Donnelly's) vulnerability to your heart's content, I’m sure it’s just Republicans being overconfident again. PPP poll, commissioned for a D-PAC: "Looks alright to me." Remington poll: "Well this is obviously a Republican poll so we can't trust it." Seriously. A lot of Dems seriously buy into the "reality has a liberal bias" idea. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 27, 2018, 01:08:05 PM ND and IN are surely gone. WVa and MO are iffy though.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Seriously? on October 27, 2018, 01:45:58 PM PPP poll, commissioned for a D-PAC: "Looks alright to me." Remington poll: "Well this is obviously a Republican poll so we can't trust it." Seriously. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Person Man on October 27, 2018, 01:56:39 PM I love how the same people who take every Democratic-friendly poll and even Democratic internals at face value always rush to remind us that (R)emington is basically just cooking up R-friendly numbers and shouldn’t be trusted, even though their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Greitens and Trump significantly. But sure, go ahead and underestimate McCaskill's (or Heitkamp's, Tester's, and Donnelly's) vulnerability to your heart's content, I’m sure it’s just Republicans being overconfident again. PPP poll, commissioned for a D-PAC: "Looks alright to me." Remington poll: "Well this is obviously a Republican poll so we can't trust it." Seriously. What are the 538bhouse effects? Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Zaybay on October 27, 2018, 02:28:58 PM Sad to see that we have only gotten R polls so far, no neutral ones. Why can’t Marist, Q, Yougov,or even Emerson just come down to the state?
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Xing on October 27, 2018, 02:53:44 PM Yeah, Republicans on this site never say that PPP (D) polls are biased.
I buy that McCaskill is a bit behind, and I don't think this poll is necessarily biased toward Republicans, but I'd still call this race a Toss-Up. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: psychprofessor on October 27, 2018, 03:18:49 PM I love how the same people who take every Democratic-friendly poll and even Democratic internals at face value always rush to remind us that (R)emington is basically just cooking up R-friendly numbers and shouldn’t be trusted, even though their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Greitens and Trump significantly. But sure, go ahead and underestimate McCaskill's (or Heitkamp's, Tester's, and Donnelly's) vulnerability to your heart's content, I’m sure it’s just Republicans being overconfident again. I honestly don't see people take Democrat internals at face value. This is an R leaning polling outfit that has consistently shown Hawley ahead by 2-4 points. I don't think anyone is underestimating McCaskill's vulnerability - this is a pure tossup. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: IceSpear on October 27, 2018, 03:33:24 PM Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: IceSpear on October 27, 2018, 03:36:53 PM Sad to see that we have only gotten R polls so far, no neutral ones. Why can’t Marist, Q, Yougov,or even Emerson just come down to the state? Really? Emerson is garbage. Remington is a Republican pollster but they run circles around Emerson. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Calthrina950 on October 27, 2018, 03:46:09 PM Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her. Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 27, 2018, 03:56:48 PM Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her. Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Calthrina950 on October 27, 2018, 03:59:39 PM Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her. Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well. That too. Personally, I still think Sinema will win, but it will be extremely close. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Don Vito Corleone on October 27, 2018, 04:01:36 PM There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives?
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: junior chįmp on October 27, 2018, 04:02:47 PM There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives? Im kinda glad polling has been sparse. Makes election night much more unpredictable and exciting. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: IceSpear on October 27, 2018, 04:06:32 PM There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives? Polling in general is in a pretty fast decline. 2014 had roughly double the amount of polls 2018 has had, 2010 roughly triple. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Don Vito Corleone on October 27, 2018, 04:09:20 PM There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives? Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: jamestroll on October 27, 2018, 04:12:42 PM The contest will be within 2 ing percentage points. She is not dead yet. Give McCaskill credit for polling so well despite poor favorable ratings.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: ContrarianLibertarian on October 27, 2018, 04:13:07 PM This is becoming a f**king nightmare Hawley is the frontrunner, but it's not 7, it's 4 Well, it’s pretty much a lock that the Dems will win a majority in the House. Even the lower band of projections there puts them at a net gain of 25 seats...a couple more than they need. It seems likely they’ll get more than that. But this Senate map was a very bad one for Dems. A lot of Red-State Ds up for re-election at a time of increasing polarization. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: IceSpear on October 27, 2018, 04:13:40 PM There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives? Probably a combination of a few things. Big polling misses shaking confidence in the industry, the decline of the media in general leading them to cut costs (polls cost money), aggregators like 538 and RCP making individual polls less impactful, etc. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 27, 2018, 04:13:40 PM There has been a grand total of one non-internal poll from this race since the start of October. One of the most competitive races and very little polling, what gives? Pollsters and big media companies care very little about small to average sized states in the middle of the country. That's why we get 16 polls for Florida and Texas but next to nothing for Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, etc. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Zaybay on October 27, 2018, 05:30:32 PM Sad to see that we have only gotten R polls so far, no neutral ones. Why can’t Marist, Q, Yougov,or even Emerson just come down to the state? Really? Emerson is garbage. Remington is a Republican pollster but they run circles around Emerson. perhaps not, but I use it for emphasis. I would really take any pollster at this point that wasnt an R internal, for thats all we have of the race for the last month. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 27, 2018, 11:07:48 PM This is becoming a f**king nightmare This is nightmare-lite. The true nightmare is where Hillary wins and Republicans have about 60 Senators after this election. And that Supreme Court seat is still vacant. And Republicans make gains in the control of the state governments so that they can increase gerrymandering even more for the next redistricting. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 27, 2018, 11:17:28 PM This is becoming a f**king nightmare This is nightmare-lite. The true nightmare is where Hillary wins and Republicans have about 60 Senators after this election. And that Supreme Court seat is still vacant. And Republicans make gains in the control of the state governments so that they can increase gerrymandering even more for the next redistricting. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: CookieDamage on October 27, 2018, 11:22:53 PM Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her. Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well. Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 27, 2018, 11:34:19 PM Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her. Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well. Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: CookieDamage on October 27, 2018, 11:44:16 PM Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her. Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well. Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells. Okay, first of all, EV is not that important in every state just because it has a large influence in Nevada. An EV firewall won't matter if Sinema and the Blue Wave brings out tons of new voters or additional Dems. Second of all, her "loss" of a state trooper endorsement will have NO effect on the race despite what you claim. And where exactly did Data Orbital claim that their poll was wrong because of early voting?? You need to cite it lmao. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Zaybay on October 27, 2018, 11:48:39 PM Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her. Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well. Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells. I would like to refer you to the AZ-07 special election early vote. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 27, 2018, 11:48:53 PM Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her. Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well. Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells. Okay, first of all, EV is not that important in every state just because it has a large influence in Nevada. An EV firewall won't matter if Sinema and the Blue Wave brings out tons of new voters or additional Dems. Second of all, her "loss" of a state trooper endorsement will have NO effect on the race despite what you claim. And where exactly did Data Orbital claim that their poll was wrong because of early voting?? You need to cite it lmao. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 27, 2018, 11:52:19 PM Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her. Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well. Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells. I would like to refer you to the AZ-06 special election early vote. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Zaybay on October 27, 2018, 11:55:03 PM Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her. Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well. Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells. I would like to refer you to the AZ-06 special election early vote. I bring up the election because of your point, that the R early vote is high. The problem with your statement is that we dont know who is voting. As we saw in AZ-07, there are clearly Ds who still have R registration. We saw this in OH-12 as well. The problem with looking at just the straight party registration is that you miss that in areas that saw a shift towards Clinton, like the two previous districts and areas like Orange County CA. I should also say that the R advantage since Thursday, the date of the article, has been constantly shrinking. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: CookieDamage on October 27, 2018, 11:56:07 PM Dang. Hopefully McCaskill can lead in at least some polls in the final week, otherwise it's not looking good for her. Heitkamp and McCaskill, I believe, are going to lose. Their losses will effectively cancel out the Democratic pickup of Arizona and Nevada, and maintain the status quo in the Senate. Donnelly's chances appear to be slipping as well. Where are you even getting this lmao??? I get the caution but come on... take a break from atlas, take a nap, and look at the arizona race again before you ring alarm bells. I would like to refer you to the AZ-06 special election early vote. I bring up the election because of your point, that the R early vote is high. The problem with your statement is that we dont know who is voting. As we saw in AZ-07, there are clearly Ds who still have R registration. We saw this in OH-12 as well. The problem with looking at just the straight party registration is that you miss that. I should also say that the R advantage since Thursday, the date of the article, has been constantly shrinking. Thank you! Also George Khalaf, the guy from the article and president of Data Orbital, is hot. AND with a little research I discovered his page and noticed he is a former political director for the AZ GOP! Now that puts this all into context. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Wisconsin+17 on October 28, 2018, 12:20:50 AM Tossup -> Lean R.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 28, 2018, 12:41:10 AM Likely R
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: J. J. on October 28, 2018, 01:58:55 AM Are people just trolling in this thread or... Remington is an R pollster. Pretty sure they've had it at Hawley +3 or +4 the entire cycle. Try +2. It is trending for Hawley. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Tender Branson on October 28, 2018, 02:01:02 AM R pollsters are generally wrong in Democratic wave years like this one and tend to show overblown winning margins for Republicans to create an alternative reality that isn't there ...
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 28, 2018, 02:18:27 AM Incumbent Heidi is losing and McCaskill can lose. It's an anti incumbent year, not just a Dem wave year
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Adam Griffin on October 28, 2018, 02:26:06 AM I said many months ago - and reiterated a few weeks back - that I thought McCaskill was the weakest in terms of state fundamentals. She isn't in the Plains or (Upper) Midwest, doesn't enjoy the same level of elastic white voters and is arguably the most "Southern" Democrat up for re-election in the Senate. Even before Heitkamp, I think the regional fundamentals suggested McCaskill was the first to go down.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 28, 2018, 02:35:59 AM Anyone of the 4 Dems can lose Manchin, Heidi, Donnelly and Mccaskill
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 28, 2018, 03:53:33 AM Anyone of the 4 Dems can lose Manchin, Heidi, Donnelly and Mccaskill They are all gonna lose. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 28, 2018, 03:59:07 AM Dems can find a narrow path to majority if only 2/4 loses, and the Dems can win NV, AZ, TN and either MSb or TX will give Dems 51/49 Senate. Dems would rather see Manchin and Heidi lose, due to Manchin voting wrong on Kavanaugh and Heidi is gone, anyways 😁
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: SN2903 on October 28, 2018, 08:21:19 AM Anyone of the 4 Dems can lose Manchin, Heidi, Donnelly and Mccaskill They are all gonna lose. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on October 28, 2018, 11:03:55 AM Well, as long as Dems win Missouri State Auditor, who cares about the US Senate?
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Young Conservative on October 28, 2018, 11:46:47 PM Jeff Roe is on twitter saying he finally thinks McCaskill is out of tricks and is calling the race easily for Hawley...doesnt seem like the kind of guy who would set his company up for a disappointment, considering his firm does lots of work in MO
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Pandaguineapig on October 29, 2018, 01:32:17 AM Jeff Roe is on twitter saying he finally thinks McCaskill is out of tricks and is calling the race easily for Hawley...doesnt seem like the kind of guy who would set his company up for a disappointment, considering his firm does lots of work in MO Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: MT Treasurer on October 29, 2018, 01:44:46 AM According to WaPo and Guy Benson, republican polls have shown Hawley pulling away over the past month Not getting my hopes up, but watching Heitkamp and McCaskill lose would be great consolation on an otherwise ugly night. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Pandaguineapig on October 29, 2018, 01:50:43 AM According to WaPo and Guy Benson, republican polls have shown Hawley pulling away over the past month Not getting my hopes up, but watching Heitkamp and McCaskill lose would be great consolation on an otherwise ugly night. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: jamestroll on October 29, 2018, 03:05:46 AM I am not stating McCaskill is dead yet but it does not look good.
Democrats probably get the consolation prize of state auditor through sheer luck. Still, it is better than nothing. The position that watches the government is a Democrat. We can not project into future elections. Maybe Democrats can take down Parson who has lower ID. Maybe Democrats can contest the new appointed attorney general. But Missouri will be very Republican. Keep in mind that McCaskill will lose while medical marijuana and 12.00 minimum wage landslide in the state. A democrat who was more popular could have held on. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Zaybay on October 29, 2018, 06:26:16 AM Seriously, we still havent gotten a single non-partisan poll of the race. Can you guys not start sounding alarm bells every time an R pollster shows Hawley up by 2.
Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 29, 2018, 06:55:57 AM According to WaPo and Guy Benson, republican polls have shown Hawley pulling away over the past month Not getting my hopes up, but watching Heitkamp and McCaskill lose would be great consolation on an otherwise ugly night. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: windjammer on October 29, 2018, 10:14:56 AM According to WaPo and Guy Benson, republican polls have shown Hawley pulling away over the past month Not getting my hopes up, but watching Heitkamp and McCaskill lose would be great consolation on an otherwise ugly night. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: MT Treasurer on October 29, 2018, 03:38:02 PM Eh, Mccaskill's campaign certainly isn't behaving like it's not behind, she also has trailed in the last 7 public polls of this race I know, but I prefer to set my expectations low and then perhaps be pleasantly surprised on election day. Title: Re: MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest Post by: ContrarianLibertarian on October 29, 2018, 04:44:43 PM Eh, Mccaskill's campaign certainly isn't behaving like it's not behind, she also has trailed in the last 7 public polls of this race I know, but I prefer to set my expectations low and then perhaps be pleasantly surprised on election day. I used to allow myself to get emotionally affected by the outcome of elections. While I still consider myself a Republican, I'm far less of one than I used to be (for various reasons I won't get into here). I can remember being elated on election nights in 1994, 2000, 2002, and 2004. Then I got similarly deflated in 2006 and 2008. I found it did me a world of good to make a concerted effort to detach myself emotionally from politics and elections. I've had basically the same disposition on every election night since then -- which is probably related to my drift away from my party. |