Talk Elections

I'm starting to think it might be Arkansas...

florida

The correct answer is Arkansas.

Arkansas.
The GOP has no machine outside the Boston Mountains.

very sure of yourself there Vorlon :).

Yes

WV goes back to Kerry, I see. That's nice.

Now why will dems win Arkansas before Florida? Have they been particularly hit by the economic downswing or what? Bush won it pretty comfortably in 2000, what has happened since?

Guess it depends what you define as "pretty comfortably" - Bush won Arkansas by 5.44% in 2000.

Arkansas has been hit fairly hard - they have a lot of "PMCs" and have pulled back maybe 2.5% points to the Dems.   Plus there is a fairly even distribution of political power in the state - Lots of Clinton folks still have their hands in things.

I have Arkansas running about +3 or so for Bush right now.

Florida on the other hand is economically in GREAT shape - best economy in the nation.

Brother Jeb (An outstanding Governor BTW) is hugely popular (Re-elected +13 in 2002) and the GOP controls every thing there is to control in that state.

Hispanics are trending to Bush fairly well in Florida (and nationwide actually by a marginal amount)

Old Seniors (70+ who vote Democratic) have died in greater numbers since 2000 than Young Seniors (60-70) who trend to the GOP.

Also, when military forces are stationed abroad they have to declare a state of residence - Many pick Florida (no state income tax) This helps Bush a tad also.

I have Bush +4 and growing stronger in Florida.

Allright. Always interesting to hear your views.

Is that agreement or disagreement...?  :D

Agreement I guess... since I can't claim being more versed in this than you :)

However many polls have shown a dead heat in FL. If they love Jeb so much, shouldn't they reflect that even at this early stage?

Florida is precisely 4.5 times more valuable than Arkansas (usually you wouldn't be able to quantify it so precisley :) ), so I'd much rather be competitive in Florida than Arkansas. Also Florida is a HUGE test of the theory that urbanization leads to less conservatism; up to 2000 it did trend more moderate as people moved into the state, but if it goes back now its a very troubling sign.

Florida is a bitch to poll for the following reasons:

1)  High non-citizen population (+/- 17% or so)
2)  Snow Birds - Do they vote in Florida - or else where?
3)  Language Issues due to hispanic/cuban populations
4)  Large number of military families - Military folks actually living on base in Iraq or Germany or Korea or where ever usual pick Florida as their US "home" due to no Florida state income tax.
5) Felons 3-4% of population - cannot vote in Florida.

All these quirks make it a tough state to poll.

There have been 3 polls done recently.

ARG and Rasmussen had the state tied (ARG Bush +1, Rasmussen Kerry +1) while Mason Dixon had Bush +8

Mason Dixon is clearly the best of these three firms plus ...

Mason Dixon started in Florida, grew up in Florida, and frankly are the pretty much undisputed and acknowledged Gods of polling Florida. The have decades of local experience and on the ground knowledge to sort out all the kinks and quirks in terms of how to properly poll the state.

Plus Mason Dixon is good at State polls.

In 2002 they did 27 state races for Senate & Governor.  They got 26 right. (17 out of 17 on Senate races)

By contrast Zogby did 17 races and got only 12 right.

Rule of thumb - if the polls are unclear - go with the Mason-Dixon - You will be right a whole lot more than you're wrong.

That is a difficult question & it is one for which I have no answer.  I think Kerry will take both, but asking which one Kerry is more likely to take, I might say AR b/c in FL, Jeb is a cheater, but I might also say FL b/c Gore only lost by very few points to win it last time... so I just don't know.

Gore lost FL by 0.01%.

Kerry's chances are very poor in both states, though obviously he could easily win without either.