Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 30, 2018, 05:33:45 am



Title: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 30, 2018, 05:33:45 am
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-sinema-leads-mcsally-arizona-senate-race-n925876

H2H:
Sinema 50, McSally 44 (was 48-45)

All candidates:
Sinema 47, McSally 44, Green 6 (was 45-43-6)

AZ GCB: D+1 (47-46)

Trump approval 44/49

Sinema favourables 48/42 (was 46/33)

McSally favourables 43/45 lmao (was 40/42)

Sinema leads in already voted (44%), 51-44


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: wbrocks67 on October 30, 2018, 05:37:14 am
but muh sinema arizona comments


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: libertpaulian on October 30, 2018, 05:48:06 am
Wow.  If Sinema is in this good shape, then Wacky Jacky must be too.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on October 30, 2018, 06:08:31 am
Ahhhhhh


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Skye on October 30, 2018, 06:11:57 am
Terrible poll for McSally. I thought she was likely to pull it off, but now I'm not so sure. It's still a tossup.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Zaybay on October 30, 2018, 06:18:51 am
What a surprise, good polling shows something different than the crappy online and R polling we have gotten for the past couple weeks.

Lets see what else Marist has in store.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 30, 2018, 06:23:40 am
FINISH HER!


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Speaker OneJ on October 30, 2018, 06:27:29 am
Let’s see how 2016 will unskew this poll.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: User157088589849 on October 30, 2018, 06:39:29 am
McSally was on fox news yesterday and she looks totally desperate.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/5854789724001/?#sp=show-clips


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: wbrocks67 on October 30, 2018, 06:57:34 am
McSally was on fox news yesterday and she looks totally desperate.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/5854789724001/?#sp=show-clips

Like we've been saying, McSally is not acting like someone who is winning


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 07:06:58 am
Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate

Marist is NUTS. The current Party Breakdown of the Ballots that have been already returned are
Republicans 43.7
Democrats 33.1
Independents 22.7

So, Marist claims that over the next 5 Days (Early Voting) + Election Day the Independent Share of the Electorate will go from 22.7 to 35. That is absolutely INSANE and CRAZY.
They also say that in the same time Republicans drop from 43.7 to 35, an 8.7-Point Drop in 5 Days + Election Day...completely unreasonable.

Racial Breakdown
65 % White
4 % African-American
19 % Latino
13 % Other

No way it will be 65 % White, 35 % Non-White.

They also claim 15 % of Voters will be 18-29.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE POLLSTERS?


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on October 30, 2018, 07:12:13 am
Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate

Marist is NUTS. The current Party Breakdown of the Ballots that have been already returned are
Republicans 43.7
Democrats 33.1
Independents 22.7

So, Marist claims that over the next 5 Days (Early Voting) + Election Day the Independent Share of the Electorate will go from 22.7 to 35. That is absolutely INSANE and CRAZY.
They also say that in the same time Republicans drop from 43.7 to 35, an 8.7-Point Drop in 5 Days + Election Day...completely unreasonable.

Racial Breakdown
65 % White
4 % African-American
19 % Latino
13 % Other

No way it will be 65 % White, 35 % Non-White.

They also claim 15 % of Voters will be 18-29.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE POLLSTERS?
Stop. Using. Early. Voting. As. The. Basis. Of. The. Election Day. Electorate.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 30, 2018, 07:14:27 am
Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate

Marist is NUTS. The current Party Breakdown of the Ballots that have been already returned are
Republicans 43.7
Democrats 33.1
Independents 22.7

So, Marist claims that over the next 5 Days (Early Voting) + Election Day the Independent Share of the Electorate will go from 22.7 to 35. That is absolutely INSANE and CRAZY.
They also say that in the same time Republicans drop from 43.7 to 35, an 8.7-Point Drop in 5 Days + Election Day...completely unreasonable.

Racial Breakdown
65 % White
4 % African-American
19 % Latino
13 % Other

No way it will be 65 % White, 35 % Non-White.

They also claim 15 % of Voters will be 18-29.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE POLLSTERS?

1) Party ID and party registration are two different things mate. The ballots returned are party registration, the numbers you cite are party ID.
2) What makes a 65-35 white/non-white electorate odd? Arizona’s population is only 58% non-Hispanic white.
3) What makes 15% of voters being <30 strange? Despite its reputation, Arizona actually has a lower median age than the nation as a whole.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 07:29:24 am
Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate

Marist is NUTS. The current Party Breakdown of the Ballots that have been already returned are
Republicans 43.7
Democrats 33.1
Independents 22.7

So, Marist claims that over the next 5 Days (Early Voting) + Election Day the Independent Share of the Electorate will go from 22.7 to 35. That is absolutely INSANE and CRAZY.
They also say that in the same time Republicans drop from 43.7 to 35, an 8.7-Point Drop in 5 Days + Election Day...completely unreasonable.

Racial Breakdown
65 % White
4 % African-American
19 % Latino
13 % Other

No way it will be 65 % White, 35 % Non-White.

They also claim 15 % of Voters will be 18-29.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE POLLSTERS?
Stop. Using. Early. Voting. As. The. Basis. Of. The. Election Day. Electorate.

The Election Day Electorate will not have 35% of Indies I bet my House on that. Also the Election Day Electorate will not be R + 7. More likely it will be between R+9/R+10.

Latinos will not vote (19%)

Marist is using almost a 2016 Election Day Model

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president (https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president)

18-29 in the 2016 AZ Exit Poll was 14% now they claim MidTerm 18-29 is 15% (1-Point higher)
Racial Breakdown in 2016 AZ Exit Poll was
75% White
2 African American
15% Latino
2 % Asian
5 % Other
A 75-25 White/Non-White

The Party ID in the 2016 AZ Exit Poll

Democrats 28
Republicans 32
Independents 40

Bottom Line: Non of this makes sense at all.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Lok on October 30, 2018, 07:31:26 am
Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 07:46:11 am
Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Zaybay on October 30, 2018, 07:48:40 am
Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

It should be noted that EV, polling, and other factors point to higher Hispanic turnout, but whatever fits your narrative.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Panda Express on October 30, 2018, 08:03:00 am
Reminder to all

We are getting down to the end - it's important you add 4 points to the Republican in each reputable poll because this is a stupid country. Call it a "stupid country bonus" for the GOP


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on October 30, 2018, 08:26:17 am
Reminder to all

We are getting down to the end - it's important you add 4 points to the Republican in each reputatable poll because this is a stupid country. Call it a "stupid country bonus" for the GOP

Senator Moore and Governor Gillespie would like to have a word with you...


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 08:26:29 am
Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

It should be noted that EV, polling, and other factors point to higher Hispanic turnout, but whatever fits your narrative.

LOL, How many Hispanics live in WI. Comparing the Hispanic Vote in WI to AZ is just BS.

Hispanics were at 11% Nationally 2016, in many Western States they were above that....

AZ: 15%
NM: 40%
CA: 31%
CO: 12%
TX: 24%

Hispanic Turnout will be higher in 2018 compared to previous MidTerms I will grant you that. However it will not be performing at Presidential Levels or above that and that's was very wrong here.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Zaybay on October 30, 2018, 08:35:30 am
Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

It should be noted that EV, polling, and other factors point to higher Hispanic turnout, but whatever fits your narrative.

LOL, How many Hispanics live in WI. Comparing the Hispanic Vote in WI to AZ is just BS.

Hispanics were at 11% Nationally 2016, in many Western States they were above that....

AZ: 15%
NM: 40%
CA: 31%
CO: 12%
TX: 24%

Hispanic Turnout will be higher in 2018 compared to previous MidTerms I will grant you that. However it will not be performing at Presidential Levels or above that and that's was very wrong here.

When did I say Hispanic voters in WI? it seems to me that I said
Quote
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

Anyway, as I said before, polling suggests that it will be above presidential numbers, or at least meeting it, same with the AA vote.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: x on October 30, 2018, 08:40:23 am
Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

You don't need to tell us. You've literally been unskewing almost every poll that looks bad for Republicans.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 30, 2018, 08:43:05 am
Why do R hacks like 2016 have to be so boring?

At least some D hacks like Solid are entertaining because they at least might have a couple races they’re too pessimistic on (like UT-04/FL-27 with Solid). R hacks are just overly optimistic on every single race.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 08:43:22 am
Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

It should be noted that EV, polling, and other factors point to higher Hispanic turnout, but whatever fits your narrative.

LOL, How many Hispanics live in WI. Comparing the Hispanic Vote in WI to AZ is just BS.

Hispanics were at 11% Nationally 2016, in many Western States they were above that....

AZ: 15%
NM: 40%
CA: 31%
CO: 12%
TX: 24%

Hispanic Turnout will be higher in 2018 compared to previous MidTerms I will grant you that. However it will not be performing at Presidential Levels or above that and that's was very wrong here.

When did I say Hispanic voters in WI? it seems to me that I said
Quote
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

Anyway, as I said before, polling suggests that it will be above presidential numbers, or at least meeting it, same with the AA vote.

Polling is Polling...it comes down who actually shows up.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 08:44:52 am
Why do R hacks like 2016 have to be so boring?

At least some D hacks like Solid are entertaining because they at least might have a couple races they’re too pessimistic on (like UT-04/FL-27 with Solid). R hacks are just overly optimistic on every single race.

Actually I think FL27, FL26 are gone for Republicans.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Impeachment Inquiry on October 30, 2018, 08:45:58 am
McSally was on fox news yesterday and she looks totally desperate.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/5854789724001/?#sp=show-clips

"The only poll that matters is when people turn their ballots in". That's what losing candidates say at the last minute.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Webnicz on October 30, 2018, 08:48:33 am
Check this guy out. It’s interesting that republicans feel like they need to start using liberal talking points if they want to win in our state. Also if you know McSallys healthcare record try not to cringe.

https://youtu.be/egKdDw8ybgU

Anyone else notice how mcsally ditched her “I’m a tough fighter pilot and I talk like one” persona for the sweet girl persona. The “tough fearless fighter pilot” persona was always funny to me considering she literally abandoned her district because she was afraid she wouldn’t get re-elected.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 30, 2018, 08:49:25 am
Jesus...


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Gass3268 on October 30, 2018, 08:52:09 am
McSally was on fox news yesterday and she looks totally desperate.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/5854789724001/?#sp=show-clips

"The only poll that matters is when people turn their ballots in". That's what losing candidates say at the last minute.

This is a real headline:

Rep. Martha McSally: 'I'm getting my ass kicked' on vote to repeal 'Obamacare' (https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/29/martha-mcsally-im-getting-my-ass-kicked-obamacare-vote-senate-sinema/1764519002/)


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: libertpaulian on October 30, 2018, 09:17:19 am
McSally was on fox news yesterday and she looks totally desperate.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/5854789724001/?#sp=show-clips

"The only poll that matters is when people turn their ballots in". That's what losing candidates say at the last minute.
Then in that case, Gillum must be DOA because he repeatedly says "Polls don't vote; people do."


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Gass3268 on October 30, 2018, 09:22:25 am
McSally was on fox news yesterday and she looks totally desperate.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/5854789724001/?#sp=show-clips

"The only poll that matters is when people turn their ballots in". That's what losing candidates say at the last minute.
Then in that case, Gillum must be DOA because he repeatedly says "Polls don't vote; people do."


I think your tone is important, Gillum's sounds like he doesn't want his supporters to stay home compared to McSally who sounds scared.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: PA is Lean D on October 30, 2018, 10:12:44 am
Not surprised. McSally really stumbled on healthcare. She shouldn't have lied about her vote on preexisting conditions.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on October 30, 2018, 10:38:57 am
Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate





The Party ID in the 2016 AZ Exit Poll

Democrats 28
Republicans 32
Independents 40

Bottom Line: Non of this makes sense at all.

So you are saying this poll includes too many Republicans and not enough Independents?


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 30, 2018, 10:45:10 am
I’ve never understood why people thought Republicans had a good shot at winning Senate races in Democratic-trending Clinton +2/Trump +3 states in a year much less favorable to them than 2016. Honestly, they’re more likely to win MT/IN/MO/ND/FL than to hold NV/AZ.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 10:54:48 am
Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate





The Party ID in the 2016 AZ Exit Poll

Democrats 28
Republicans 32
Independents 40

Bottom Line: Non of this makes sense at all.

So you are saying this poll includes too many Republicans and not enough Independents?

No, I am not saying that at all. What I am saying that they oversampled Independents? This is 2018 and not 2016.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Impeachment Inquiry on October 30, 2018, 10:59:15 am
McSally was on fox news yesterday and she looks totally desperate.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/5854789724001/?#sp=show-clips

"The only poll that matters is when people turn their ballots in". That's what losing candidates say at the last minute.
Then in that case, Gillum must be DOA because he repeatedly says "Polls don't vote; people do."


That is more about not being complacent and is actually a wise thing to say.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 11:01:22 am


He's right. Marist shouldn't have asked the H2H Question

Meanwhile CBS/YouGov left the Green Party Candidate of their Questionaire entirely...



Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: PA is Lean D on October 30, 2018, 11:09:20 am
Sorry to burst your bubble, 2016, but there is no way the Green Party candidate is getting more than 3% of the vote.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 11:16:21 am
Sorry to burst your bubble, 2016, but there is no way the Green Party candidate is getting more than 3% of the vote.

That's not the Problem. The Problem is "PRINCIPLE" by Marist. There is no H2H in AZ between Sinema and McSally so they shouldn't be asking this Question.

Meanwhile...



Campaign Polling by both Parties suggesting AZ Senate Race is much, much tighter what Public Poling is saying.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 30, 2018, 11:18:32 am
Sorry to burst your bubble, 2016, but there is no way the Green Party candidate is getting more than 3% of the vote.

That's not the Problem. The Problem is "PRINCIPLE" by Marist. There is no H2H in AZ between Sinema and McSally so they shouldn't be asking this Question.

Meanwhile...



Campaign Polling by both Parties suggesting AZ Senate Race is much, much tighter what Public Poling is saying.

I like how you take Hotline Josh seriously.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: PA is Lean D on October 30, 2018, 11:20:38 am
Take everything Josh Kraushaar says with huge handfuls of salt.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Xing on October 30, 2018, 11:39:42 am
An encouraging poll, but I'd still call this a Toss-Up.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Speaker OneJ on October 30, 2018, 12:33:34 pm
Wow, I guessed right! :P


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 01:22:03 pm
Mike Noble, Chief Pollster of "OH Predictive Insights" who will release their Final AZ Poll (Governor & Senate) tomorrow agrees with me on the NBC/Marist Poll...



Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Joshua on October 30, 2018, 01:25:39 pm
Can't believe I just waded into a puddle of dog sweat when I clicked on this thread.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 30, 2018, 01:27:57 pm
Mike Noble, Chief Pollster of "OH Predictive Insights" who will release their Final AZ Poll (Governor & Senate) tomorrow agrees with me on the NBC/Marist Poll...



I’d take Marist (an A rated pollster) a lot more seriously than the junk known as OH Predictive Insights.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: adrac on October 30, 2018, 02:56:46 pm
When polls list top lines with and without third-party candidates, I usually take the true top line to be somewhere between the two, as third party candidates almost always underperformed on election day.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Webnicz on October 30, 2018, 03:00:08 pm
Mike Noble, Chief Pollster of "OH Predictive Insights" who will release their Final AZ Poll (Governor & Senate) tomorrow agrees with me on the NBC/Marist Poll...



I’d take Marist (an A rated pollster) a lot more seriously than the junk known as OH Predictive Insights.

The OH poll will have McSally ahead for sure.
OH has done nothing to hide their bias, they are literally promoting McSally on their twitter page with the credible source of the Washington Freebeacon
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1056608283723583489?s=21


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: KingSweden on October 30, 2018, 03:01:24 pm
An encouraging poll, but I'd still call this a Toss-Up.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Impeachment Inquiry on October 30, 2018, 03:33:46 pm
OH Predictive Insight is so caught up on oversampling that it makes me wonder if they are weighting their polls by party ID which has in the past produced inaccurate results.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on October 30, 2018, 03:38:42 pm
Why do R hacks like 2016 have to be so boring?

At least some D hacks like Solid are entertaining because they at least might have a couple races they’re too pessimistic on (like UT-04/FL-27 with Solid). R hacks are just overly optimistic on every single race.
Solid is a hack, sure, but he is very numbers oriented. He was/is super down on ojeda,for example


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Atlas: Consistently Wrong on October 30, 2018, 03:39:56 pm
Why do R hacks like 2016 have to be so boring?

At least some D hacks like Solid are entertaining because they at least might have a couple races they’re too pessimistic on (like UT-04/FL-27 with Solid). R hacks are just overly optimistic on every single race.

to be fair I am pessimistic on NY-SEN and NY-GOV


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Badger on October 30, 2018, 04:08:40 pm
Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So is arguing with an ideological mayfly who will disappear a week after election day, rather than putting him on ignore. ;)


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Lok on October 30, 2018, 05:00:35 pm
Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So is arguing with an ideological mayfly who will disappear a week after election day, rather than putting him on ignore. ;)
Hey, I need to have some fun once in a while :P


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 30, 2018, 06:25:29 pm
Mike Noble, Chief Pollster of "OH Predictive Insights" who will release their Final AZ Poll (Governor & Senate) tomorrow agrees with me on the NBC/Marist Poll...



Someone who put out a poll that was as junky as their last one really has no room to criticize another poll.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: libertpaulian on October 30, 2018, 06:27:39 pm
BUT MUH PINK TUTU!


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 30, 2018, 07:52:20 pm
Some much needed good news. At least the Democrats in the Senate will gain something!


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 30, 2018, 08:02:54 pm
Some much needed good news. At least the Democrats in the Senate will gain something!

They'll definitely gain Nevada. :)


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 30, 2018, 08:03:50 pm
Some much needed good news. At least the Democrats in the Senate will gain something!

They'll definitely gain Nevada. :)

I think so too, but I'm not as sure as you and xingkerui seem to be.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 30, 2018, 09:14:02 pm
Some much needed good news. At least the Democrats in the Senate will gain something!

They'll definitely gain Nevada. :)

I think so too, but I'm not as sure as you and xingkerui seem to be.

They have emphasized for months that Nevada is a automatic Democratic pickup. While I think it's foolish to take that position, I also do believe that the environment favors Rosen and that she will win narrowly.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: libertpaulian on October 30, 2018, 09:14:51 pm
Some much needed good news. At least the Democrats in the Senate will gain something!

They'll definitely gain Nevada. :)

I think so too, but I'm not as sure as you and xingkerui seem to be.

They have emphasized for months that Nevada is a automatic Democratic pickup. While I think it's foolish to take that position, I also do believe that the environment favors Rosen and that she will win narrowly.
Yeah, I'm interested to see Ralston's tweets about today's voting.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
Post by: GMantis on November 19, 2018, 07:04:19 am
Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
Apparently it did happen (https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate). Also the electorate was R+6. So yet another refutation of the ridiculous poll unskewing idea.