Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 30, 2018, 05:36:59 am



Title: AZ NBC/Marist: Ducey +13 H2H, +14 with all candidates
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 30, 2018, 05:36:59 am
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-sinema-leads-mcsally-arizona-senate-race-n925876

H2H:
Ducey 55, Garcia 42

All candidates:
Ducey 54, Garcia 40, Torres 6


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Ducey +13 H2H, +14 with all candidates
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 30, 2018, 10:26:23 am
Maybe even Rauner could've been re-elected if Dick Durbin died and he appointed some partisan hack to the Senate. Gotta love American "swing voters."


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Ducey +13 H2H, +14 with all candidates
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 30, 2018, 10:56:52 am
Maybe even Rauner could've been re-elected if Dick Durbin died and he appointed some partisan hack to the Senate. Gotta love American "swing voters."

Do we really think that's the reason why Ducey is leading by so much? Seems like a nonsensical/unimportant issue.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Ducey +13 H2H, +14 with all candidates
Post by: x on October 30, 2018, 10:59:06 am
Maybe even Rauner could've been re-elected if Dick Durbin died and he appointed some partisan hack to the Senate. Gotta love American "swing voters."

Do we really think that's the reason why Ducey is leading by so much? Seems like a nonsensical/unimportant issue.

It is 99% likely not to be at all relevant to his level of support.

Politics abhors a vacuum. In the absence of any other decent, plausible theory, the vacuum is filled with nonsense. Stuff like this happens every election.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Ducey +13 H2H, +14 with all candidates
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 30, 2018, 11:44:55 am
Maybe even Rauner could've been re-elected if Dick Durbin died and he appointed some partisan hack to the Senate. Gotta love American "swing voters."

Do we really think that's the reason why Ducey is leading by so much? Seems like a nonsensical/unimportant issue.

The polls were close before that and every poll has shown Ducey getting extremely high approval for his Senate appointment. Theoretically it could be a coincidence, but I doubt it. He got tons of positive media coverage during this stretch of time.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Ducey +13 H2H, +14 with all candidates
Post by: Old School Republican on October 30, 2018, 11:46:49 am
Maybe even Rauner could've been re-elected if Dick Durbin died and he appointed some partisan hack to the Senate. Gotta love American "swing voters."

Illinois is not Arizona


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Ducey +13 H2H, +14 with all candidates
Post by: Badger on October 30, 2018, 01:10:24 pm
Likely or safe r?


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Ducey +13 H2H, +14 with all candidates
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 30, 2018, 04:54:35 pm
Maybe even Rauner could've been re-elected if Dick Durbin died and he appointed some partisan hack to the Senate. Gotta love American "swing voters."

You can also say, like I did earlier, that Garcia's poorly run campaign has helped Ducey pull farther ahead. And I don't think swing voters are as ignorant as you think they are. These same voters in Arizona seem to also be supporting Sinema, and they will be crucial to her victory.


Title: Re: AZ NBC/Marist: Ducey +13 H2H, +14 with all candidates
Post by: The Saint on October 30, 2018, 05:20:04 pm
Maybe even Rauner could've been re-elected if Dick Durbin died and he appointed some partisan hack to the Senate. Gotta love American "swing voters."

Do we really think that's the reason why Ducey is leading by so much? Seems like a nonsensical/unimportant issue.

The polls were close before that and every poll has shown Ducey getting extremely high approval for his Senate appointment. Theoretically it could be a coincidence, but I doubt it. He got tons of positive media coverage during this stretch of time.

That's why you shouldn't trust Garcia internals and Gravis, the only polls released before the announcement on September 4.