Title: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Tender Branson on October 30, 2018, 11:59:06 AM New Poll: Indiana Senator by Cygnal on 2018-10-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=18120181027280)
Summary: D: 46%, R: 49%, I: 3%, U: 2% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/42514-Cygnal-IN-Memo-Public.pdf) Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Tender Branson on October 30, 2018, 12:01:44 PM Sen. Roy Moore (who they had ahead by 8 points) certainly agrees with this poll ...
PS: Cygnal is a R-pollster. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on October 30, 2018, 12:02:50 PM They also have the exact same margin and % for Hawley in MO
Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Tender Branson on October 30, 2018, 12:03:26 PM The Atlas poll map is now showing 3 R pickups ... LOL.
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Zaybay on October 30, 2018, 12:04:39 PM MY GOD, WHY ARE ALL THE POLLS IN MO AND IN R POLLSTERS?!
Seriously, I just want a non-partisan one. Marist, where are you?! Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 30, 2018, 12:05:23 PM Other polls have shown Braun +3/4 as well. R+1 (with IN/MO/ND/AZ/NV flipping) is really looking more and more likely.
Also lol@believing YouGov is a Republican pollster. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 12:07:29 PM MY GOD, WHY ARE ALL THE POLLS IN MO AND IN R POLLSTERS?! Seriously, I just want a non-partisan one. Marist, where are you?! Marist claim Non-Partisan but are anything but. They're polling for the MSNBC Clowns Kornacki, Maddow, Matthews, Hayes, Lawrence O'Donnell & Brian Williams. Nuff said. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Tender Branson on October 30, 2018, 12:07:39 PM I still think that MO and IN will be won by the Democrats in the end, no matter what these polls show.
This and the gains in AZ, NV and possibly even in TN and TX will offset the loss in ND and will still put the Senate in play ... Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Yellowhammer on October 30, 2018, 12:08:21 PM The Atlas poll map is now showing 3 R pickups ... LOL. https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Zaybay on October 30, 2018, 12:09:04 PM MY GOD, WHY ARE ALL THE POLLS IN MO AND IN R POLLSTERS?! Seriously, I just want a non-partisan one. Marist, where are you?! Marist claim Non-Partisan but are anything but. They're polling for the MSNBC Clowns Kornacki, Maddow, Matthews, Hayes, Lawrence O'Donnell & Brian Williams. Nuff said. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Tender Branson on October 30, 2018, 12:09:28 PM The Atlas poll map is now showing 3 R pickups ... LOL. https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php I'm 75-90% sure it won't happen. Dems will have a really good election night, for the Senate as well. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 30, 2018, 12:10:25 PM I still think that MO and IN will be won by the Democrats in the end, no matter what these polls show. This and the gains in AZ, NV and possibly even in TN and TX will offset the loss in ND and will still put the Senate in play ... So you think TN and TX are more likely to flip than IN and MO? Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 30, 2018, 12:10:37 PM The Atlas poll map is now showing 3 R pickups ... LOL. https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php Tender Branson only cares about polls when they show Democrats winning every competitive race. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Zaybay on October 30, 2018, 12:12:08 PM Other polls have shown Braun +3/4 as well. R+1 (with IN/MO/ND/AZ/NV flipping) is really looking more and more likely. Also lol@believing YouGov is a Republican pollster. YouGov and a couple R pollsters are not great company. MO is even worse. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Tender Branson on October 30, 2018, 12:12:14 PM I still think that MO and IN will be won by the Democrats in the end, no matter what these polls show. This and the gains in AZ, NV and possibly even in TN and TX will offset the loss in ND and will still put the Senate in play ... So you think TN and TX are more likely to flip than IN and MO? In the coming Democratic wave, they will likely hold both states and there's a chance that they will gain TX and/or TN. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Gass3268 on October 30, 2018, 12:14:46 PM I still think that MO and IN will be won by the Democrats in the end, no matter what these polls show. This and the gains in AZ, NV and possibly even in TN and TX will offset the loss in ND and will still put the Senate in play ... So you think TN and TX are more likely to flip than IN and MO? The thing is I really don't think we know. Polling has been awful this cycle unless it's Florida or Texas. There have been some rumblings of a Bredesn comeback in TN, but no one has polled there since to find out. There has been talk and some Republican polls that have Republicans up in MO and IN, but nothing to back it up from serious pollsters. Some pollsters have shown MI, MN, and OH tightening for Democrats, but almost all from below average pollsters and neither party are pumping money into that state (except OH-GOV). We are so devoid right now of sound information. It's really frustrating. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 12:16:48 PM I see, you're both desillusional getting the Senate. Give it up boys. You won't get it.
Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on October 30, 2018, 12:18:10 PM https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/trash
Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Tender Branson on October 30, 2018, 12:18:45 PM I still think that MO and IN will be won by the Democrats in the end, no matter what these polls show. This and the gains in AZ, NV and possibly even in TN and TX will offset the loss in ND and will still put the Senate in play ... So you think TN and TX are more likely to flip than IN and MO? The thing is I really don't think we know. Polling has been awful this cycle unless it's Florida or Texas. There have been some rumblings of a Bredesn comeback in TN, but no one has polled there since to find out. There has been talk and some Republican polls that have Republicans up in MO and IN, but nothing to back it up from serious pollsters. Some pollsters have shown MI, MN, and OH tightening for Democrats, but almost all from below average pollsters and neither party are pumping money into that state (except OH-GOV). We are so devoid right now of sound information. It's really frustrating. That's of course correct. There's only limited polling right now in these races and the fact that mostly R pollsters are jumping in right now is IMO a sign of desperation on their part. I'm more looking at past cycles such as 2006 or the special elections, where Dems did well in the last 2 years and had huge swings in their favour. All of this is bad news for the Republicans. Some Democrats like Rosen will outperform their poll numbers and some others like Donnelly might too. But there could also some surprises for the Rs ... maybe also on the Governor side with Lamont losing or something. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 30, 2018, 12:19:57 PM Imagine actually believing that TX is more likely to flip than IN and MO.
Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Senator Incitatus on October 30, 2018, 12:23:37 PM I still think that MO and IN will be won by the Democrats in the end, no matter what these polls show. This and the gains in AZ, NV and possibly even in TN and TX will offset the loss in ND and will still put the Senate in play ... So you think TN and TX are more likely to flip than IN and MO? In the coming Democratic wave, they will likely hold both states and there's a chance that they will gain TX and/or TN. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0YIJQ1jgEI Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 12:27:14 PM The Atlas poll map is now showing 3 R pickups ... LOL. https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php Tender Branson only cares about polls when they show Democrats winning every competitive race. I think so too. Zaybay might have a good point regarding Fox Polls. I checked out their Pollsters and their Polls are done by a Democrat and a Republican similar to the NBC/WSJ National Poll which are done by McInturff/Yang. The Marist Poll however was founded by Lee Miringoff and he is a Democratic Hack. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: junior chįmp on October 30, 2018, 12:27:54 PM I still think that MO and IN will be won by the Democrats in the end, no matter what these polls show. This and the gains in AZ, NV and possibly even in TN and TX will offset the loss in ND and will still put the Senate in play ... So you think TN and TX are more likely to flip than IN and MO? The thing is I really don't think we know. Polling has been awful this cycle unless it's Florida or Texas. There have been some rumblings of a Bredesn comeback in TN, but no one has polled there since to find out. There has been talk and some Republican polls that have Republicans up in MO and IN, but nothing to back it up from serious pollsters. Some pollsters have shown MI, MN, and OH tightening for Democrats, but almost all from below average pollsters and neither party are pumping money into that state (except OH-GOV). We are so devoid right now of sound information. It's really frustrating. I think Dems will do far better than the polling indicates on election night...particularly in the Senate (tho I wouldn't go so far as to say it'll flip but the chances are higher than people think). I'm glad there's barely any polling...makes election night and the results more interesting. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 30, 2018, 12:28:26 PM FOR THE LOVE OF GOD WHY ARE ONLY JUNK POLLSTERS POLLING INDIANA
edit: Zaybay beat me to it, lol Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Politician on October 30, 2018, 12:45:49 PM The Atlas poll map is now showing 3 R pickups ... LOL. https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php MT Treasurer only cares about polls when they show Republicans winning every competitive race. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Xing on October 30, 2018, 12:49:08 PM Disappointing, but hopefully we get at least a Marist poll here before Election Day. Still a Toss-Up.
Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️ on October 30, 2018, 12:59:09 PM Do we actually know if Cygnal is a real pollster? They seem to be a new pollster... It seems very strange, their website domain is .al
.al is Albania. ??? If we don't know that they are real, could they be a Russian fake poll? I have no specific evidence of this, but it just seems very strange that they would have a .al domain for their website. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Pollster on October 30, 2018, 03:02:22 PM FiveThirtyEight adjusted both this and the MO Cygnal poll to 2 point Dem leads, fwiw.
Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Mr. Illini on October 30, 2018, 06:17:04 PM Cygnal Kaine +5 = all polls into the garbage
Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Progressive Pessimist on October 30, 2018, 07:48:46 PM I'm bracing myself for the media narrative after the Democrats end up netting at least one loss in the Senate.
Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: ContrarianLibertarian on October 31, 2018, 11:55:01 AM I mean, Cygnal wants us to believe Kaine is only leading Stewart by 5. If the best they can do is Braun+3 in Indiana, then I'm not worried. They can't get Braun out of the toss-up range. But I do love how everyone runs in here to go "ah-ha, Donnelly was going to lose all along!" based on this. Toss-up race is a toss-up. FWIW, the polls leading up to the 2016 Indiana Senate election showed a consistent Bayh lead until the last couple weeks....then, right at the last part of the homestretch, a small lead for Todd Young. Young went on to win by almost 10 points. I don't know if that experience will be instructive here or not. This is a different cycle with different prevailing political winds. But it should, anyway, be enough to make people skeptical of the polls. And I'm not just talking about Cygnal. Marist was in that group and I think Q was, too. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: libertpaulian on October 31, 2018, 11:56:10 AM I mean, Cygnal wants us to believe Kaine is only leading Stewart by 5. If the best they can do is Braun+3 in Indiana, then I'm not worried. They can't get Braun out of the toss-up range. But I do love how everyone runs in here to go "ah-ha, Donnelly was going to lose all along!" based on this. Toss-up race is a toss-up. FWIW, the polls leading up to the 2016 Indiana Senate election showed a consistent Bayh lead until the last couple weeks....then, right at the last part of the homestretch, a small lead for Todd Young. Young went on to win by almost 10 points. I don't know if that experience will be instructive here or not. This is a different cycle with different prevailing political winds. But it should, anyway, be enough to make people skeptical of the polls. And I'm not just talking about Cygnal. Marist was in that group and I think Q was, too. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: ContrarianLibertarian on October 31, 2018, 01:39:00 PM I mean, Cygnal wants us to believe Kaine is only leading Stewart by 5. If the best they can do is Braun+3 in Indiana, then I'm not worried. They can't get Braun out of the toss-up range. But I do love how everyone runs in here to go "ah-ha, Donnelly was going to lose all along!" based on this. Toss-up race is a toss-up. FWIW, the polls leading up to the 2016 Indiana Senate election showed a consistent Bayh lead until the last couple weeks....then, right at the last part of the homestretch, a small lead for Todd Young. Young went on to win by almost 10 points. I don't know if that experience will be instructive here or not. This is a different cycle with different prevailing political winds. But it should, anyway, be enough to make people skeptical of the polls. And I'm not just talking about Cygnal. Marist was in that group and I think Q was, too. Well, part of the point I was making was that even the reputable polls in Indiana pretty badly missed the 2016 result. It may well be that undecideds broke hard for Young that cycle. And it’s true that damaging news about Bayh came out fairly late in the campaign. But I think it was about for over a month before Election Day. But most of the late polls showed a slight Young lead. The last one posted at RCP had Young up 5. He ended up winning by 9.7. Make of that what you will. But I just wouldn’t put that much faith in even the most reputable pollsters. They all missed that one badly. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: libertpaulian on October 31, 2018, 01:41:15 PM I mean, Cygnal wants us to believe Kaine is only leading Stewart by 5. If the best they can do is Braun+3 in Indiana, then I'm not worried. They can't get Braun out of the toss-up range. But I do love how everyone runs in here to go "ah-ha, Donnelly was going to lose all along!" based on this. Toss-up race is a toss-up. FWIW, the polls leading up to the 2016 Indiana Senate election showed a consistent Bayh lead until the last couple weeks....then, right at the last part of the homestretch, a small lead for Todd Young. Young went on to win by almost 10 points. I don't know if that experience will be instructive here or not. This is a different cycle with different prevailing political winds. But it should, anyway, be enough to make people skeptical of the polls. And I'm not just talking about Cygnal. Marist was in that group and I think Q was, too. Well, part of the point I was making was that even the reputable polls in Indiana pretty badly missed the 2016 result. It may well be that undecideds broke hard for Young that cycle. And it’s true that damaging news about Bayh came out fairly late in the campaign. But I think it was about for over a month before Election Day. But most of the late polls showed a slight Young lead. The last one posted at RVP had Young up 5. He ended up winning by 9.7. Make of that what you will. But I just wouldn’t put that much faith in even the most reputable pollsters. They all missed that one badly. Here, everything seems to be a dead-heat. The Kavanaugh issue has cooled down, and there's no factor that's changed the game either way. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: ContrarianLibertarian on October 31, 2018, 01:46:21 PM Going back and reviewing polls late in the 2016 race, there was one polling outfit that came pretty close to the final result between Young and Bayh: Surveymonkey.
Their last 2 polls were 52-43 (Young) and 53-42 (Young). The result was 52.1 - 42.4 Young. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 31, 2018, 02:06:49 PM I think IN will go GOP, the state will trend right
Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: ContrarianLibertarian on October 31, 2018, 02:57:18 PM I think IN will go GOP, the state will trend right I don't know how this particular election will turn out. But it's certainly true that Indiana has trended right in the past decade. Soon after the statehouse Democrats walked out and went to Illinois to prevent a quorum over objections to right-to-work legislation, the Republicans have maintained supermajorities in both houses of the legislature and nearly a monopoly on statewide offices (Donnelly is one of just two Dems to win statewide since all that happened). What a dumb move on their part. And, ultimately, they didn't even prevent the passage of RTW. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: libertpaulian on October 31, 2018, 02:58:16 PM I think IN will go GOP, the state will trend right I don't know how this particular election will turn out. But it's certainly true that Indiana has trended right in the past decade. Soon after the statehouse Democrats walked out and went to Illinois to prevent a quorum over objections to right-to-work legislation, the Republicans have maintained supermajorities in both houses of the legislature and nearly a monopoly on statewide offices (Donnelly is one of just two Dems to win statewide since all that happened). What a dumb move on their part. And, ultimately, they didn't even prevent the passage of RTW. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: ContrarianLibertarian on October 31, 2018, 03:10:47 PM What region of the state are you in? How do things look on the ground? Southwestern....Evansville. Honestly, I'd say it looks relatively subdued -- at least as compared to presidential years. I'm guessing that the area down here will go pretty well for Braun, given that he's from Jasper. But I get the feeling that most people aren't big fans of either one of them. The one thing I'm hearing more than anything else is that they can't wait to stop seeing the ads. Trump did a rally here a few weeks ago for Braun that was very well attended. Filled up the Ford Center with about 10K, with probably another 2 or 3K who didn't get in and had to watch on a huge monitor they placed outside. Interestingly, our popular moderate Republican mayor (Lloyd Winnecke) had other plans that night. ;) Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: libertpaulian on October 31, 2018, 03:11:47 PM What region of the state are you in? How do things look on the ground? Southwestern....Evansville. Honestly, I'd say it looks relatively subdued -- at least as compared to presidential years. I'm guessing that the area down here will go pretty well for Braun, given that he's from Jasper. But I get the feeling that most people aren't big fans of either one of them. The one thing I'm hearing more than anything else is that they can't wait to stop seeing the ads. Trump did a rally here a few weeks ago for Braun that was very well attended. Filled up the Ford Center with about 10K, with probably another 2 or 3K who didn't get in and had to watch on a huge monitor they placed outside. Interestingly, our popular moderate Republican mayor (Lloyd Winnecke) had other plans that night. ;) I'm in the Northwestern corner...Lake, just outside Chicago. Guess how we'll go. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: ContrarianLibertarian on October 31, 2018, 03:14:17 PM BTW, speaking of Donnelly, did you see where he just stuck his foot in his mouth talking about his minority staffers?
Quote "Our state director is Indian-American, but he does an amazing job. Our director of all constituent services, she's African-American, but she does an even more incredible job than you can ever imagine." But? But? I don't think his comment will cost him many votes, honestly. But it's things like this which make silly season so much fun. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: libertpaulian on October 31, 2018, 03:15:29 PM BTW, speaking of Donnelly, did you see where he just stuck his foot in his mouth talking about his minority staffers? Quote "Our state director is Indian-American, but he does an amazing job. Our director of all constituent services, she's African-American, but she does an even more incredible job than you can ever imagine." But? But? I don't think his comment will cost him many votes, honestly. But it's things like this which make silly season so much fun. Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: ContrarianLibertarian on October 31, 2018, 03:27:09 PM I'm curious if Vanderburgh will go for Donnelly like it did last time around. I'd be surprised. What was funny about that race was that Dick Mourdock is from here (he's an acquaintance of mine, actually). He was never terribly popular here, but did win a County Commissioner's seat. He was pretty good at internal party politics and basically parlayed that (after two tries) into the state party's support for Treasurer. He was never really a populist type before (really more of a Mike Delph-type SoCon). But, when the Tea Party stuff started happening, he gladly hopped on the wave....which he rode all the way to saying that children conceived in rape were a gift from God. And, well, that did it. It didn't surprise me that he lost his home county. In fact, he might have lost here even if he hadn't have made the rape gaffe. People here never liked him much. That said, while Todd Young won Vanderburgh in 2016, he only won it by about 6 points...so he underperformed here what he did statewide. Quote I'm in the Northwestern corner...Lake, just outside Chicago. Guess how we'll go. I'll have to go do some historical analysis. ;) Title: Re: IN: Cygnal: Braun (R) +3 Post by: Mr. Illini on October 31, 2018, 09:39:00 PM Quote I'm in the Northwestern corner...Lake, just outside Chicago. Guess how we'll go. I'll have to go do some historical analysis. ;) Been seeing the ads over the border here in the big city, which seems...expensive. |