Talk Elections

Cramer: 54.5
Heitkamp: 45.5

https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/nd-senate-survey-oct-24-2018/


Ready your "Heidi surging" hot-takes.

>>>Trafalgar

Throw it in the trash.

I agree, throw it in the trash. Trafalgar is bottom tier stuff.

Conclusion: Cramer still up Double Digits.

>Released a week ago

But yeah, Heidi Heitkamp should be called HEIDI DEADKAMP. Say it with me:

DEADKAMP
DEADKAMP
DEADKAMP
DEADKAMP
DEADKAMP
DEADKAMP

Well, it doesn't look like Heitkamp will lose by 20.

Trafalgar is a Republican pollster and they almost never underestimate Republican margins. Where'd you even get this comment from?

This is a sample that is 70% republican, 2% under age 35, and 13% under age 45, and Cramer is leading by 9%.

If the Republicans keep the house, this margin seems about right. Heitkamp probably does about as well as O'Rourke.

Heidi surging. Should be even by next week.

/s

Good poll for Heitkamp, compared to what it might have been for an ND poll from Trafalgar.

That....that is absurd. Either Heidi is doing much better than expected, or Trafalgar is soo bad that they got +9 out of such a sample.

Based on anecdotal information, fundraising and Biden factor, I would lean towards the former, but I will never know, since only garbage pollsters want to visit ND.

Fox News, where are you?

Zaybay is my Bogeyman. Too much insanity from him as always.

Hysterical.

Junk...they're probably UNDERESTIMATING Cramer

same to you, my friend.

There's no way 70% of the ND electorate will be Republican.

Even SRA polling, which found Cramer ahead by 16, had 60% Rs.

This is really strange. But it is Trafalgar, so perhaps I should have expected such an odd result.

This actually isn't a terrible result for her. She'll probably still lose, but won't get Blanched.

2016 actually had the stones to say that?!?

To the irony ore mine, stat!

Correction. Apple relying on those numbers, even in North Carolina, is beyond absurd.

I've assumed hike Camp was DOA as well, but with that kind of a cross section it's tough to cough this race anything other than lean r.

I would have had trouble making that assessment with a straight face, but will anyone please tell me how Kramer being up 9 points in a 70% Republican poll that's less than 2% under age 35 says anything else? Does anyone here truly believe that turn out on Election Day is going to be anything even fathomable e close to these numbers??

Hell, according to this poll if Republican share of the electorate Falls just short of 60% on Election Day high camp will probably win! I don't think that'll be the case, of course, but in a nutshell this Paul is actually pretty good news for Heidi.

Its highly possible(some would say likely), that turnout remains below 60% R. I think in 2016 it was either 45% or 55% R, but I cant recall at the moment.

Sure. My point is that according to this poll that if it is "merely" in the high 50s Heidi will win. Again, I think that reflects more about the sh**ty nature of this poll rather than height Kamps chances.

Another poll confirming what has already been known about this race. Heitkamp is on track to lose by high single to low double digits, as I previously estimated.

What races has Trafalgar gotten right (more or less)? I don't want to try to run down everything, but AL and VA 2017, they were off the mark rather significantly:

Moore+5
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html

Northam+1
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html

They did do well in Michigan 2016 -- Trump+2
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html

So tell us how you estimated that 70% of the electric will self identify as Republicans, and less than 2% will be under age 35. Inquiring minds want to know!

Interesting that these were both off by more or less the same margin. If you apply that baseline to this poll, it's a dead heat.

They have Trump's approval at 56-44.

Honestly feels sort of low to me?

Weird sample.

The Heitkamp can still win people are even more pathetic than the Bernie can still win people, I really don't know what makes it so hard for people to accept her losing at this point

In case you guys have forgot, Trump overwhelmingly won North Dakota by 35 percentage points in 2016 and has over 60 % approval rating there. So I’m astonished that you can’t realize how much conservative ND is and thus Cramer could win by this much.

I'm almost psychic.

Really?


Yeah, it's pretty sad to watch. Especially when a lot of the same people will make fun of other posters for saying John James, Bob Hugin, etc. can win.

Ice, we're applying the standards of this particular poll, not necessarily saying "Here's how Heidi can still win!!"

Yep. Looks about right. This year looks ripe for red states to correct their elections of accidental Senators from six years ago.

Heitkamp will lose by 15 ish

Nope

They just emailed me and Heidi says the gap is closing, she can win this race, but any number of the red state Dems can lose.

Probably not 15, but a low double-digit Cramer win is not beyond the realm of possibility.

Ugh... your mind... stan list <3

I think this actually caused the 538 model to tighten to Lean R, might be wrong though....

The Gold standard has spoken

Yeah. People will point to the 70% Republican number in this poll and try to unscew it. That is not a smart thing to do as Trafalgar is just garbage all around. This is another reason why 538's model is flawed. Not every poll from the same company is going to be off by the same margin.