Talk Elections

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1057684375146582016

Walker 47%
Evers 47%
Anderson 3%
Undecides 1%
Refused to Answer 1%

Ugh!

Wow.

Hot damn!

Gold Standard™ Strikes again. I'll believe this poll more than any of the others that don't poll Wisconsin as solidly as they do. They do the best in weighting and just have the best track record in the state.  

This race will probably be even closer than Kemp-Abrams.

But Atlas told me Walker was DOA because of Muhrist.

This election just might be disappointing. I guess it is possible that Walker and Baldwin can get re-elected at the same time.

Don't get complacent, Dems. Keep fighting...even when it looks hopeless right now.

WooHoo,
Unbelievable, Walker might just pull this out AGAIN.

Walker is still more likely to lose than Laxalt, obviously. ::)

(Don’t get me wrong, Walker could very well lose, but there’s no way this flips before NV.)

Tie = Hopeless?

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I think Evers will win. He has generated a lot of energy in Western Wisconsin, and the cities are pumped up!

Kaul keeps gaining on Schimel:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1057685293216792578

If Walker wins this thing, he truly does have nine lives.

MU has been loyal to Walker all cycle.

Those on the fence were prolly just shy GOPers in the height of the Pittsburgh shooting...they are coming home as the Dem bump wears off in a week.

Look on the bright side. At least this poll shifted in favor of Evers from their last poll.

I will be shocked if there is an 11 point difference between the two races.

Um, Election Day will be OVER in a week.

SAME! What the heck is happening?

Lot's of Ticket Splitting...in fact we could have a new Record on Split-Tickets come Tuesday.

Here are the States where that is possible:

WI
OH
AZ
NV
FL

just to name a few. There will be others as well.

Honestly Baldwin likely puts Evers over the finish line.

Doubt it. If he can't keep it within 10 pts. of her, that speaks to the unique strength of the Walker campaign. 

Favorables are about the same:

Evers - 42/41
Walker - 48/49

Hopefully this is the year Marquette's reputation is utterly destroyed.

If Walker actually wins re-election at the same time that Stabenow/Whitmer/Wolf/Casey landslide, I think that answers the question of which Trump state would be the toughest nut to crack of those three.

Ugh.

I don't see why they'd get it wrong this year.

I wish they could have Evers up, even if only by a point or two.

I'd be interested in seeing the partisan breakdown of the sample, but yeah, this race is a Toss-Up.

My timeline is happening. Hopefully not, at least in the case of WI-GOV (spoiler, Walker narrowly wins amidst a pretty decent Dem wave elsewhere).

Im so confused, Marquette has been given all but one poll saying Walker is leading, and now that their final poll says the race is tied, everyone now things Walker might hold on? Not only is this shift rather good for Evers, as said before, Walker has lead this whole time according to Marquette, but it also means Walker has no polls that show a lead for him anymore(the one that did was Marquette).

Geez, it looks like what's said about Atlas is true, the status of the race is whatever the most recent poll said it was.

The difference here is that Walker is the only incumbent Republican because Wisconsin doesn't have term limits. Evers is also not a great candidate. He is not the least bit inspiring and cannot talk smoothly to save his life. This doesn't mean Wisconsin is a redder state.

If this race truly is a tie, Evers is going to need Dallet-like margins in Dane and Milwaukee to eke this out.

Sure, it is better than the previous poll, but one would like for them to have Evers up, even if just by a point or two.

In other words, Evers isn't a skilled liar like Walker. Walker is good at sounding convincing.

Watch Walker lose by as much as his opponents did in 2010 and 2014.

I've always thought this was a toss up. I'd still bet on Evers simply due to the national environment though.

I think most people were hoping Evers would be ahead so that they wouldn't have to worry about this race. This adds a lot of uncertainty. I personally still expect Evers to win over Walker on election day. In a tied situation, the partisan rift usually decides the election, and that is on the Democrats side this year. In addition, Marquette has been a bit Republican-friendly compared to others who have polled Wisconsin this year.

It’s just hofoid thinking Walker and Rust Belt GOPers in general are invincible because muh 2009-2016 struggles in the region that partially have to do with elasticity.

Democrats are more enthused to vote:

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1057683973885882368

This is different from past years, usually Walker dominates with Indys:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1057689577866125314

Keep hedging, Marquette

If Walker loses hofoid will be on suicide watch.

What I want to know is...why are people so quick to denigrate Marquette when they are a state institution?

One noticeable thing: Walker has consolidated his base (96%) more than Evers has (93%).  However, the gap in indys is good for Evers.

This is my last post of the day, but I will end with this: If Evers does indeed win, then I will be regarding MU Law as Walker's secret R internal from now on!

I can't wait until the vaguely subpar Emerson poll gets released this Friday, which will most likely show Evers with a lead! Also, Suffolk might be releasing a poll for WI soon, too!

This is off:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1057689402489651201

You know, IceSpear, I don't go and dig up every wrong thing you said during 2016, of which there were very many, including your prejudiced railings against the people of West Virginia. I don't because you are such a tedious bore who is not worth a fraction of the effort.

Nope they just refuse to herd with lower quality pollsters.

??

As a alum of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, I am required to hate all things Marquette.

So, basically, you're just waiting for more favourable numbers from pollsters you admit are of lower quality?

Not a good sign this close to Election Day how many people still have no opinion on Evers

No, the point isn't that you were wrong. The point is you haven't learned a lesson from dismissing a gold standard poll simply because you dislike the result. It's especially strange because this result isn't even particularly bad for the Democrats. Did you seriously think Evers was going to win by double digits? lol

That is not logical. There is clearly a margin of error here and this poll result is a tie. If Evers wins by 6-7, then yes, this poll will have been way off. But if he wins by 2-3, this poll was not bad. I think you're reading this as a Walker win when it's not.

I didn't have much of an opinion on Todd Young in 2016, yet I voted for him anyway.  Guess what?  He won in a landslide.

Exactly.  This race is going to be a pure base turnout election, with a few moderates and undecideds thrown in.

I have to agree with Ebsy here, that is pretty weird IceSpear.

Yep, meanwhile High Energy Walker still has that magic he had all 3 times he won (especially 2012 against all odds).

Fair enough.

Ok, so people are spinning this as a good result for Walker? Marquette has found better numbers for him then any other poll this cycle, and they only had Evers up once.

Breakdown of the major groups:

White Males w/o Degree: Walker +19 | Vukmir +13
White Males w/ Degree: Walker +5 | Baldwin +3
White Females w/o Degree: Evers +5 | Baldwin + 16
White Females w/ Degree: Evers +12 | Baldwin +27
Non-white or Hispanic: Evers +16 | Baldwin +35

If I do (which I don't) and I am wrong, who care. Get a life.

It's only a week left and the poll was taken during a particularly Dem-favouring news cycle.

Let's compare these to 2016, shall we?

Trump won this group by a 23% margin last time.

Clinton and Trump tied with this group.

Trump won this demographic by 16%.

Clinton won this group by 23%.

Clinton won this group by 55%.

So, some good and some bad for each candidate.  Evers has cut into the white non-college men slightly and has made significant inroads with non-college women.  However, Walker has made dents of his own with college-educated white men and women, as well as with non-whites.

I am very concerned with this poll's sample of non-white voters. Yes, Wisconsin is a very white state, but there is no way that Walker is getting 37% of non-white voters or Vukmir getting 30%. I've looked at the precinct numbers for the entire decade in the City of Milwaukee (where like 90% of non-whites in the state live) and Republicans are lucky to get over 10% in those places typically.

Don't oversell these shifts. The MOEs around these are pretty big, and your comparing to exit polls.

I know I said my last post would be my last on this thread, but I must say the crosstabs seem really off!

This is likely due to a small number of respondents. In their last poll, Walker led among Hispanics by 18 points. The n for that subsample was 20.

Yep, and with college educated being more likely to vote...easy win.

FWIW they also polled registered voters and found Walker + 3 in that group

Wisconsin is a less-educated state, though.  55% of Wisconsin voters had a high school diploma or less in 2016, a good year for Republicans in Wisconsin.

If Walker is re-elected, then Wisconsin will continue to be an embarrassment. I won't feel sorry for Wisconsinites at all.

Walker won't lose by double digits or even high single digits, it'll be like 3-5 points but he will most likely lose. He's a weak candidate who only won in GOP wave years. Evers isn't the most inspiring person but it doesn't matter because the national environment favors democrats and Walker is a turnoff for a lot of Obama-Trump voters in Northern and Western WI.

This poll is good to Walker.

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1057696261363642370

Are you done panic posting yet, friend?

You really think he's going to spin this negatively?!

Not until Election Day! :)

When was this conducted?

It baffles me that Baldwin-Walker voters exist.

This also has Walker's approval at 50/46 which seems... high.

Fun fact: The previous Marquette poll of this race showed Walker up by 1.

I'm not convinced that this is good news for Walker. Usually it would be better for the incumbent heading into Election Day tied, but Wisconsin, like Iowa, is a state that seems to break for change when it comes down to it. It's why Walker did so well in the first place and part of (obv not all) why Trump won there.

This time, though, Evers is the change candidate.

Either way it will be a nailbiter.

MasterJedi hungered so much for Scott Walker to be Governor back in 2008 and 2009. Now you guys just cannot get rid of him.

Walker will lose

It's actually better than I thought it would be. :p

I think Evers makes it to the finish.

I'm just curious: What methodology does MU Law use to make the governor's race tilt R compared to other pollsters?

BTW I do think Evers is favored, but MU Law always destroys any confidence I have surrounding this race.....until the next poll shows Evers with a lead (which will most likely happen with the Emerson poll tomorrow).

Memerson?!  Seriously?! 

There'd better be a CNN, FOX News, or Marist poll this weekend to accompany that one.

Marist is just as reliable as MU, right?

Marist is a gold standard poll, IMO.  If a pollster like that shows even the slightest hint of a good sign for Walker, THEN I'd say it's time to hit the panic button.

Okay. So, I will apologize for my panic posts on this thread - I'm just hoping that MU is wrong and the race won't be this close. However, my concerns over this poll have waned down a little after doing some research and looking at some of the crosstabs, I've found some of them to be questionable.

First of all, I doubt 2 percent of the electorate will be Evers-Vukmir voters:

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1058135740813590528

Secondly, I doubt Evers will do 10 points worse than Burke did in Milwaukee in 2014. Could something be off, or am I misinterepreting anything?

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Evers is still leading in the average. Plus he's performing 1 point better than the last Marquette Poll. Y'all need to chill.

Atlas by itself produces more anger about Wisconsin politics than every single Wisconsinite ever will about their own state.

Never doubt the gold standard!

This poll was actually right

Well done, Marquette.

Pretty accurate.

Indeed. This is two governor cycles in a row where they were only 1 point off. They had Walker +7 in 2014 and he won by 6.

Marquette is the last remaining gold standard. Even Selzer was off a decent amount in Iowa.

And yes I know Marquette got 2016 wrong, but I'm not counting it because their final poll was pre-Comey letter. And even despite that they still caught the 11th hour Ron Johnson surge.

Actually, the Research Company had it at Evers +1, so they are the best! :P