Talk Elections

Finally a quality Indiana poll!

New NBC/Marist poll of Indiana (likely voters):
Donnelly (D) 48%
Braun (R) 46%

(Was Donnelly 49%, Braun 43% in Sept)

Three-way:
Donnelly (D) 45%
Braun (R) 42%
Brenton (L) 7%

(Was Donnelly +3 here in Sept)

Oct 24-28

That's terrifyingly close, but I think Donnelly is a slim favorite here.

The king lives!!!!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/indiana-senate-race-poll-democrat-joe-donnelly-leads-republican-mike-braun.html

If you include Lovable Lucy, his lead expands to three!

This will definitely hinge on turnout.

Marist has found surprisingly good numbers for Democrats pretty much everywhere this year. Not saying they’re necessarily wrong, but it’s something to keep in mind.

The trend isn't great unfortunately, but at least he still leads.

True, but I think that's more of a matter of the candidates consolidating their bases than anything.

42% college educated in this poll, how doe that compare to 2016?

libertpaulian: 42% college educated, too high?

Toss up -> Toss up

Of course, there's one exception to that...I'll leave everyone to guess what state that is.

I believe the guy who runs Marist's polling said they weigh by income instead of education, which produces similar results (they tested education weighs once and it wasn't any different)

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In the Bayh vs. Young race, 47% of Hoosier voters were college grads, and they went 51-45% Young.  Non-college was 53%, and they broke 54-39% Young.

I'll take it. Important Donnelly had better favorability numbers than Braun.

So given this is a midterm, 42% might be too low.

Here is the education breakdown in the probably flawed exit poll fwiw:

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The Bayh vs. Young race was 47% college, 53% non-college.  Young won college by 6% and non-college by 15%.

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Also worth noting that this was Donnelly +6 last month. I’d still rather be Braun than Donnelly. #bold, I know.

With the Kavanaugh backlash being applied heavily to Donnelly and the Butternut Democrat counties trending further R, I'd rather be Donnelly, honestly.  With Brenton as a factor, Joe's numbers increase.  The fact that he's close to 50% is good.

LOL, Donnelly +23 among Indies. The Marist Crap Show continues.

Ya'll can gloat about that Poll BUT FOX NEWS will have apparently IN-SEN Poll as well @6pm.

Eastern or Central?

Eastern

Is FOX going to do another of their massive polling dumps, or Indiana only?

They usually release all at once

Marist has been bad all year long. They have D's AHEAD everywhere except TX & TN. I'll have to check their Polls from 2014 cuz if they underestimating R-Turnout the same way back then R's certainly looking pretty good in ND, IN, MO, TX and TN.

Trumps JA with Independents is -4 in Indiana yet Donnelly +23 over Braun with that Group. It doesn't make sense.

I mean yeah, this year will definitely be a repeat of 2014.

Really hope you have plenty to drink on election night

You.can approve of the President yet vote D, you know.

Using your logic, Joe Manchin would be getting destroyed by Pat Morrisey right now.

Marist is biased. Braun will win.

I don't dispute that BUT +23 is a little bit too much, don't you think? Same in AZ where they have Sinema +27 among Indies where Trumps JA is clearly on the rise.

Possibly, given Donnelly beat Mourdock with indys by a lesser margin.  However, Dems are energized this year, and Braun is a less-than-exciting candidate with no real message. Weirder things happen.

2016, can you please stop unskewing using crosstabs like indies? This poll had 29% indies among likely voters, which is n=144. That would have an MOE of over 8 points with Indiana's population.

Why are people calling a +2 poll a toss up?

If those #s you are quoting are from exit polls, they probably overstate the college #. On the other hand, the college # should be higher in a midterm than in a Presidential year (unless the turnout is really really high).

It isn't just Indies. Braun gets only 60% of the Evangelical Christian Vote...not even close to right. These Marist Polls have HUGE Flaws no matter how you slice it.

Because it’s close enough to a tie that a turnout differential could send it the other way (or, by the same token, see a bigger Donnelly win). Totally reasonable nomenclature

Wow, a great pollster showed a race that was believed to be R thanks to bad pollsters and data isnt. So surprised.

Honestly, I am willing to declare that Claire is up too, and we will all be shocked.

Apparently Fox is releasing some polls soon, so lets see what they say....

Donnelly doesn't have the gay pride marching, abortion-loving, coastal elite image that Hillary did.  While he won't do well with them, he won't get blown out of the water with Hillary margins, either.  In 2008, exit polls showed Obama winning about 30% of Indiana evangelicals, and he was already tarnished with the coastal elite image in the primary.

Are Indiana evangelicals more willing to vote D than in the South, because 25% D seems high admittedly.

Southern evangelicals are considerably more partisan (also, “evangelical” is a term so overbroad it’s effectively vague)

Donnelly got 27% of the born-again vote in 2012.

I'll take it also. I was basically writing Donnelly off. It's good to see that he's still in this. If he survives I'm fairly certain we get a D+0 Senate at worst. I'm fine with that at this point.

*Fingers crossed*. This will be my race to watch. If Donnelly wins again, Democrats are at D+0, which is satisfactory enough for me.

Well, that FOX poll worked out well for the cause of unskewing...

If the Senate ends up 50-50 then the Democrats should go all out to get Murkowski to either switch parties or caucus with them. Promise her all the federal pork in the world

Sorry for the double post by the way, I didn't realize that I did that.