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Title: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 31, 2018, 05:12:20 PM https://hoffmanresearchgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/PRESS-RELEASE-OR-Gov-Poll-10-30-18.pdf
Brown 45% Buehler 42% Previous Poll had Brown up 10 Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: wesmoorenerd on October 31, 2018, 05:15:58 PM Brown is going to win. Deal with it.
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: Calthrina950 on October 31, 2018, 05:16:09 PM https://hoffmanresearchgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/PRESS-RELEASE-OR-Gov-Poll-10-30-18.pdf Brown 45% Buehler 42% Previous Poll had Brown up 10 Unfortunately, because of how inflexible Oregon is, and because of the national environment, Brown will probably still win. It is a frustration, given that Buehler seems to be a genuinely good candidate and a moderate (of the type that I would support). This race is Lean Democratic. Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 31, 2018, 05:18:58 PM The Oregonian which is a very liberal paper endorsed Buehler
Also If the GOP loses this race, it will be the fault of the national GOP for spending more resources in CA than OR Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 31, 2018, 05:22:37 PM Buhler is a good candidate, I've got to admit. But wrong year.
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: Calthrina950 on October 31, 2018, 05:22:57 PM The Oregonian which is a very liberal paper endorsed Buehler Also If the GOP loses this race, it will be the fault of the national GOP for spending more resources in CA than OR Even if Republicans had invested more resources in Oregon, Buehler would still lose. This year is just not the right environment for him to win, particularly since Oregon is a Democratic state. Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 31, 2018, 05:25:23 PM The Oregonian which is a very liberal paper endorsed Buehler Also If the GOP loses this race, it will be the fault of the national GOP for spending more resources in CA than OR Even if Republicans had invested more resources in Oregon, Buehler would still lose. This year is just not the right environment for him to win, particularly since Oregon is a Democratic state. Well if race is within 3 points then yes they would have won. Also KGW, KATU, KOIN (our local news stations) all say the race is super close and could go either way and so do all the state wide experts Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: ON Progressive on October 31, 2018, 05:25:53 PM The Oregonian which is a very liberal paper endorsed Buehler Also If the GOP loses this race, it will be the fault of the national GOP for spending more resources in CA than OR President Hillary Clinton agrees that newspaper endorsements win elections. Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: KingSweden on October 31, 2018, 05:31:42 PM Buehler probably would have easily won in 2010
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 31, 2018, 05:32:43 PM Buehler probably would have easily won in 2010 Sadly we nominated Dudley instead who’s claim to fame is getting dunked on by Shaq Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: MT Treasurer on October 31, 2018, 05:33:24 PM Buehler strikes me as someone who will underperform pretty badly in the more conservative/rural parts of the state.
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 31, 2018, 05:33:55 PM The Oregonian which is a very liberal paper endorsed Buehler Also If the GOP loses this race, it will be the fault of the national GOP for spending more resources in CA than OR President Hillary Clinton agrees that newspaper endorsements win elections. Hillary also had super high unfavorables In this case Buheler is viewed as a net favorable while Brown is viewed as net unfavorable Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: Xing on October 31, 2018, 05:35:47 PM Safe D, fool's gold.
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 31, 2018, 05:38:06 PM Safe D, fool's gold. How is a race which has almost every poll within 5 points viewed as Safe or even likely lol Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: ON Progressive on October 31, 2018, 05:40:16 PM Safe D, fool's gold. How is a race which has almost every poll within 5 points viewed as Safe or even likely lol Fundamentals matter. If this is flipping, Dems are having single digit gains in the House at best, losing at least 5 Senate seats, and doing really badly in governorships. Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: OSR stands with Israel on October 31, 2018, 05:43:34 PM Safe D, fool's gold. How is a race which has almost every poll within 5 points viewed as Safe or even likely lol Fundamentals matter. If this is flipping, Dems are having single digit gains in the House, losing at least 5 Senate seats, and doing really badly in governorships. Not nearly as much for a gubernatorial race as a senate or house race and one fundemental your leaving out is Brown is unpopular Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: Calthrina950 on October 31, 2018, 05:44:14 PM Safe D, fool's gold. How is a race which has almost every poll within 5 points viewed as Safe or even likely lol This is something I wonder about as well. I don't understand why any single-digit race anywhere would be considered "safe" for one party or the other. Particularly one in which the leading candidate has less than an absolute majority and there is still a number of undecideds. However, as I said earlier, Oregon will not flip under these circumstances. Now, if this were a Clinton midterm, Buehler would probably be favored. Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: Xing on October 31, 2018, 05:44:55 PM Safe D, fool's gold. How is a race which has almost every poll within 5 points viewed as Safe or even likely lol Because it's Oregon and a Democratic wave year. If polls had TN-GOV within 5 in a Republican wave year, it would also be Safe R. Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: IceSpear on October 31, 2018, 05:47:56 PM This could end up close, but I really don't think this is the right year for Republicans in Oregon. Maybe if they nominated Buehler in 2010 or 2014 they would've won.
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: Politician on October 31, 2018, 05:49:02 PM This could end up close, but I really don't think this is the right year for Republicans in Oregon. Maybe if they nominated Beuhler in 2010 or 2014 they would've won. Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: Anzeigenhauptmeister on October 31, 2018, 05:54:03 PM Does Brown's bisexuality have to do with her bad polling numbers?
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: ON Progressive on October 31, 2018, 05:57:00 PM Does Brown's bisexuality have to do with her bad polling numbers? No, it’s Oregon. I highly doubt it hurts her. Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: UncleSam on November 01, 2018, 02:16:43 AM I wish so much that every Kobach vote could go to Buehler instead. Then both states would get decent governors for a change.
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: pops on November 01, 2018, 02:18:49 AM This always happens in statewide Oregon races, Republicans spend big, polls show a close race, and Dems win by 4-6%.
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: mgop on November 01, 2018, 08:19:02 AM buehler is classic rino, i'm glad he will lose just like rauner. we don't need more rino governors. hogan, baker and scott are more than enough.
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: OBD on November 01, 2018, 10:57:33 AM Holding out hope, but Brown is favored for sure.
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: RINO Tom on November 01, 2018, 11:04:37 AM buehler is classic rino, i'm glad he will lose just like rauner. we don't need more rino governors. hogan, baker and scott are more than enough. We quite literally desperately need more. Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 01, 2018, 11:11:44 AM Holding out hope, but Brown is favored for sure. Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: OBD on November 01, 2018, 01:04:17 PM buehler is classic rino, i'm glad he will lose just like rauner. we don't need more rino governors. hogan, baker and scott are more than enough. We quite literally desperately need more. Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: TheSaint250 on November 01, 2018, 01:10:09 PM buehler is classic rino, i'm glad he will lose just like rauner. we don't need more rino governors. hogan, baker and scott are more than enough. We quite literally desperately need more. Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: Ye We Can on November 02, 2018, 01:21:34 AM I mean I think Brown is obviously favored, but people forget that Richardson won the SoS race in 2016 while Trump lost by 11. There's a recent history of ticket-splitting despite the Dem being a bad candidate that year so I could see Oregon bucking muh fundamentals.
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on November 02, 2018, 01:30:26 AM I voted for brown and I am hoping she can pull it off.
Title: Re: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3 Post by: NOVA Green on November 02, 2018, 01:51:44 AM So, here is my latest update on Oregon Early Voting numbers...
This is the thread where I post my daily updates of OR returns for the NOV 18 GE... https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=301469.msg6504965#msg6504965 Ok--- I know most of y'all are most focused on the hot button elections for US-SEN and GOVs in large States, etc.... but still being the Oregon Election addict I am, feel the moral obligation to share the latest Vote-by-Mail update from the great State of Oregon. OREGON- NOV '18 GE UPDATE- EV data posted on the OR-SoS site as of 18:00 PST. () + 124k Votes added since Yesterdays Update.... DEM RAW VOTE margins over REP RAW VOTE MARGINS increase from 85.7k to 98.5k.... (Crazy....) In terms of % Binary Margins DEMS now only lead by +12.5% D vs +12.9% D Yesterday and + 13.0% D on 10/30 SoS Update. Now, time to look at the overall Turnout to Date in Oregon by Party contrasted against RV numbers as a % of Total Registered Voters: () So, what we see here is that the Democrats have increased their % of DEM REG Voters compared to REP REG Voters from 35.8% of DEMs having already cast ballots vs 28.8% of PUBS.... MISC are now at 20.2%. The Graph on the left are REG VOTERS by PARTY as a % of TOT REG VOTERS.... Ok--- on paper these numbers look extremely difficult for 'PUBS to overcome in a Statewide Election (OR-GOV), unless there is a combination of not only "Ancestral DEMS" in places like Coos, Columbia, Linn, Waco, Tillamook, etc voting in extremely high % numbers for Knute, combined with a minimal defection of REG PUBs from Metro PDX, and some of the larger Pop Centers in Downstate, and Knute winning 60% of Indies (Think Metro PDX especially). Fine.... Let's look at the Total % of DEM Turnout by County of RV/EV (11/1 numbers, but OR always runs in arrears). () Ok--- where are the major gaps in DEM Turnout??? Heavily concentrated in the Willamette Valley, including the PDX "'Burbs" of Washington County, Multco (Heavily PDX), as well as the heavily Middle-Age and Younger parts of the Mid-Valley (Including places with significant Latino % of VAP)... We see similar patterns of RV/EV DEM Turnout in heavily Latino places in Eastern Oregon, where DEMS are becoming a much larger slice of the electorate (Morrow, Umatilla, Malheur, & Crook). In parts of Oregon with larger Senior Populations, we see extremely High levels of DEM turnout in the NW Coast, SW Oregon Coast, Grain Country in the Columbia River Gorge, and places like (Lake, Wallowa, & Harney), etc.... So--- overall DEM vs REP TO numbers went from a + 2.5% GAP on 10/30 numbers and are now a + 6.9% D TO GAP based upon the 1/11 numbers. Meanwhile the only places where the DEMs gained on the TO GAP were a small handful of rural Counties, but did increase numbers significantly in a handful of places: Multnomah: + 0.2% D > Increase (10/30-11/1) Washington: +0.1% D > Increase (10/30-11/1) Benton: + 0.9% D > Increase (10/30-11/1) Lane: + 0.2% D > Increase (10/30-11/1) Yamhill: +0.3% D > Increase (10/30-11/1) Problem for 'Pubs is these "handful of counties account for a significant chunk of the Vote Share in Oregon, and additionally indicate potential weaknesses among Indie Voters in the OR-GOV election, which is why Dem's slapped an additional +10k votes in the bank Yesterday... All is not lost for the 'Pubs however, we saw movements when it comes to RV REP vs DEM TO in favor of the 'Pubs in Deschutes, Jackson, and Clackamas towards the 'Pubs, so maybe the Turnout Gap might be correcting in these relatively large Pop Centers.... Still, I would much rather be Kate Brown sitting with a +100k Dem lead in the bank, knowing that Knute would really have to run up the score with Indies and 'Pubs, and swing a pretty heft chunk of Ancestral Dems, minimize losses from 'PUB defections in places like Happy Valley, Lake Oswego, and certain precincts in West /SW PDX, North Eugene, East Medford, etc. More to come.... The Hoffman polling numbers do not appear to be logical based upon the raw data currently available. At this point, based upon data available I'm thinking it will more likely be a Brown +7-10% Win.... |