Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Ronnie on October 31, 2018, 09:35:57 pm



Title: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Ronnie on October 31, 2018, 09:35:57 pm
Martha McSally: 52%
Kirsten Sinema: 45%

https://t.co/Qw19Ev1TnE?amp=1


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on October 31, 2018, 09:36:57 pm
Hahahahahahahahaha.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Impeachment Inquiry on October 31, 2018, 09:37:24 pm
This is the clear outlier.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Cory Booker on October 31, 2018, 09:37:56 pm
Yeah, okay


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 31, 2018, 09:38:28 pm
HAHAHAHHAAHAHHAHAHAHHA.

THIS is what the guy trying to unskew A-rated gold standard polls is putting out? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Corporate Buddhism is the Future on October 31, 2018, 09:38:42 pm
David Garcia has a better chance at winning than McSally does at winning by 7


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Zaybay on October 31, 2018, 09:49:08 pm
Are you kidding me? These guys were complaining about how high quality pollsters werent polling correctly, and then they do this....


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: SN2903 on October 31, 2018, 09:49:32 pm
Sinema is a fraud and Arizona voters are gonna vote against her.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Hindsight is 2020 on October 31, 2018, 09:51:58 pm
Are you kidding me? These guys were complaining about how high quality pollsters werent polling correctly, and then they do this....
Normally people who complain about polling like that are the biggest hacks


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Cory Booker on October 31, 2018, 09:53:01 pm
Sinema been leading in every poll except this one. But AZ is a center right state. However, just like in NV, and TX, there is a hidden Latino vote the polls are underestimating


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Webnicz on October 31, 2018, 09:54:19 pm
The way this pollster casually promotes mcsally on twitter is concerning, something to look at when analyzing at this poll.

https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1056608283723583489?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1052354755966582784?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051993626320896000?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051967203224969216?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051905978398990336?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1050558419482992640?s=21



Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 31, 2018, 09:58:25 pm
(Image Link)


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on October 31, 2018, 10:02:02 pm
McFlop is a fraud and Arizona voters are gonna vote against her.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Zaybay on October 31, 2018, 10:10:37 pm
Quote
The chief pollster for OH Predictive Insights says the shift in numbers is being linked to the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh and the caravan of migrants headed to the United States.
"If Kavanaugh didn't happen I think it'd be an extremely tight race," Noble said. "If not, I'd actually say the edge would go to Sinema but after seeing the polling - seeing the results - everything else - I think that McSally will end up winning coming election night."

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Ebsy on October 31, 2018, 10:10:45 pm
No idea why a media outlet is using a GOP firm with such a poor record.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: libertpaulian on October 31, 2018, 10:13:14 pm
Didn't 538 say they have a 100% track record?


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Gass3268 on October 31, 2018, 10:16:59 pm
Poll is over a week old too.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Gass3268 on October 31, 2018, 10:18:59 pm
Didn't 538 say they have a 100% track record?

They've only rated two of their polls, but they gave them a C+.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 31, 2018, 10:30:45 pm
About as believable as the Donnelly +7 poll.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on October 31, 2018, 10:38:16 pm
Martha McSally is sure acting awfully strange for someone who is allegedly up by 7 points.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on October 31, 2018, 10:43:05 pm
So, I was going to try to unskew the crosstabs, but it seems that this poll doesn't even have any crosstabs. It is just a news article with no poll details.

Are they somewhere that I am just not seeing? What is their turnout model etc? How can I be expected to unskew it without anything more than a topline?


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on October 31, 2018, 10:46:46 pm
So, I was going to try to unskew the crosstabs, but it seems that this poll doesn't even have any crosstabs. It is just a news article with no poll details.

Are they somewhere that I am just not seeing? What is their turnout model etc? How can I be expected to unskew it without anything more than a topline?

They are doing a press release tomorrow. They DID have a Trump +11 approval and R+9 GCB in their last poll though, and that was McSally +6. So expect something nuts like double digit Trump net approval and maybe even a double digit R lead in the GCB.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Mondale on October 31, 2018, 10:47:18 pm
McSally is done


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: pppolitics on October 31, 2018, 11:44:38 pm
The way this pollster casually promotes mcsally on twitter is concerning, something to look at when analyzing at this poll.

https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1056608283723583489?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1052354755966582784?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051993626320896000?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051967203224969216?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051905978398990336?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1050558419482992640?s=21



Those tweets tell you everything you need to know about this pollster


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 01, 2018, 07:30:07 pm
No idea why a media outlet is using a GOP firm with such a poor record.

Anything to push a "Democrats are doomed" narrative.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Cory Booker on November 01, 2018, 07:34:33 pm
Let them have egg on their face when Sinema, Rosen and Bredesen win, which can compensate for the loss of ND


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 01, 2018, 07:36:19 pm
Let them have egg on their face when Sinema, Rosen and Bredesen win, which can compensate for the loss of ND

The loss of Heitkamp may indeed be compensated for if everything goes right for Donnelly and McCaskill, but Bredesen is not going to win.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on November 01, 2018, 08:36:51 pm
Quote
They've only rated two of their polls, but they gave them a C+.

Given 538's track record perhaps they should be assessing 538, not the other way around.
 

 
 


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: libertpaulian on November 01, 2018, 08:47:21 pm
Quote
They've only rated two of their polls, but they gave them a C+.

Given 538's track record perhaps they should be assessing 538, not the other way around.
 

 
 

538's number crunching is the creme de la creme of poll analysis.

I agree, though, that their punditry is mediocre.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on November 02, 2018, 09:49:11 am
Quote
They've only rated two of their polls, but they gave them a C+.

Given 538's track record perhaps they should be assessing 538, not the other way around.
 

 
 

538's number crunching is the creme de la creme of poll analysis.

I agree, though, that their punditry is mediocre.


Yes, 538 came closer to predicting a Trump victory than nearly anyone else (IIRC, their chance of a Trump victory was around 30% on election day, when nearly all the other prognosticators had the chance at less than 5%). But again, Nate's model is only as good as the polls that feed into it.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Cory Booker on November 02, 2018, 09:51:00 am
Not buying this poll


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Politician on November 13, 2018, 04:49:59 pm
Junk poll!


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on November 13, 2018, 10:02:31 pm
Trash.


Title: Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on November 14, 2018, 07:23:02 am
This was definitely an Outlier. McSally was leading the RCP by a point and lost by two on ED but only after some weird polls were added in.