Talk Elections

Prince Edward Island has their election scheduled for next year on October 7th.  Since that is only 14 days before the federal election it is possible they move it up to the spring of 2019 or back to 2020.  At this point polls suggest a three way face.  Liberals have been in power for 3 terms so the fatigue and desire for change will make getting re-elected a challenge but not impossible.  PEI has a general trend of 3 Liberal terms and 3 PC terms so history is on the side of the PCs, but so far they've been struggling and not connecting well.  Off course that could change during the course of the campaign.  Green Party is very popular and leading in some polls so will be interesting if those numbers hold up or not.  Also PEI having a minority government like New Brunswick and BC is a very real possibility too.

Important to note is that the next election will coincide with a referendum on electoral reform, which has been one of the main policy positions of Peter Bevan-Baker, the PEI Green Party's leader. A prior referendum in 2016 received only 36% turnout, which the Liberal government deemed illegitimate. After that referendum, the Green Party's polling numbers jumped from the single digits to the mid-20s. They now poll in the high-20s to high-30s, the best numbers of any provincial Green Party in Canada.

The Green Party stands to gain from a shift to proportional representation, since it's not clear whether their possible percentage of the vote under the current first-past-the-post system will be spread effectively and translate to enough seats to rival the Liberals and PCs. Will one of Canada's last two-party systems finally be fractured?

This election is definitely the one I'm most interested in following next year.

It is worth keeping in mind the Liberals won a majority last time around with a lead of only 3%. If their main opponents in 2019 are the Greens rather then the PCs, they could well win a majority while trailing in the vote count.

fun fact - 119 votes switching from Liberal to PC in 2015 takes them to 14 seats, a bare majority. 372 seats switching in two other ridings gives the PCs a majority.

Eagerly awaiting a Green win immediately followed by their reneging on their promise of electoral reform.

Heh. I would very much doubt that would happen (the latter, I mean).

As much as I used to hate the Greens, I think I would be very pleased to see them win on PEI. The NDP there is useless.

Considering it has been one of their main policy positions and how much their polling numbers increased directly after the 2016 referendum, I highly doubt they'd be able to get away with that.

MQO research and Mainstreet research both have polls out here.  Looks like a tight three way race so probably a minority if an election were held today.  Interesting to see if this holds, but definitely anyone of the three parties has a shot as support tends to be reasonably evenly distributed across the island so a slight uptick for any of the three could yield a majority.

MQO

Green 32%
Liberal 31%
PC 30%
NDP 7%

Mainstreet

Liberal 33.4%
Green 29.7%
PC 28.3%
NDP 6.7%

MQO also has federal numbers and while Liberals still well ahead, Green surge provincially is somewhat spilling over federally.  Tories down slightly, although I think Green and NDP support will be key as they will need strong splits to win any seats on the island.

Liberal 44%
Conservative 30%
Green 14%
NDP 11%

Looks to be an exciting race. I should warn all of you, despite my D-PE avatar, I know very little about PEI politics (haven’t even been there).

That assumes numbers stay the same, my thoughts on the three parties are as follows:


Liberals: They've been in power since 2007 so becoming a bit stale and strong desire for change, nonetheless haven't had any major scandals or radically unpopular policies so if they can convince the public the other two are too risky, could still win a majority.  Also one hidden advantage is they have the majority of incumbent MLAs so that might give them a small advantage.  Still when PEI decides to change governments, they usually swing quite hard so a near wipe out is just as easily possible.  With support being fairly evenly distributed, or at least more so than other provinces, it wouldn't take that big an uptick to get into majority territory and likewise only a small drop to lose outright.


PCs: Have an uninspiring leader and little media attention, but if they perform well on the campaign trail could easily get a majority.  In the last two elections, final results showed the PCs getting 10-15% higher than what they had going in.  Since they are fairly centrist unlike their federal counterparts, could be some confusion so many Red Tories who find the federal Tories too right wing are parking their votes elsewhere, but will move over to the PCs once they realize they are like the Clark/Stanfield PCs, not the Harper/Scheer Tories.  At the same time if it becomes a change election and the Greens are seen as the better party to achieve this, might get marginalized thus struggling to hold what they have. 

Green Party:  Most popular leader and that bodes well as usually when leader's popularity is above party, their numbers tend to rise.  Main problem is weak organization and may have a tougher time attracting cabinet material as candidates, so when they come under greater scrutiny, numbers could easily fall back.


Another possibility is if a minority you might like BC and New Brunswick see some interesting drama.  While one might assume Greens would favour Liberals over PCs, I am not so sure.  PCs and Liberals unlike federally are both centrists so differences ideologically are small.  Liberals refusal to implement PR might mean Greens will support PCs if they promise to implement PR even if Liberals win a plurality of seats.  By the same token, PCs promise to support Ontario, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and likely soon Alberta in challenging the feds on the carbon tax so that might make a PC-Green alliance difficult.  Also considering how rural PEI is compared to other provinces, the carbon tax might hurt the Greens whereas in more urban provinces it would work in their favour.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/12/03/pei-green-party_a_23607272/

This article touches on the Greens' success, though it acknowledges that much of it may be limited to urban centers (aka Charlottetown).

The article also mentions that the PCs have been plagued by infighting for almost a decade––does anyone have more info about why that is?

New CRA poll coming later this week.

Two polls out showing tight race between Greens and Liberals, while PCs in third but still within striking distance

Mainstreet

Liberals 35.2%
Greens 30.8%
PCs 29.6%
NDP 2.7%

MQO research

Greens 34%
Liberals 33%
PCs 28%
NDP 2%

Most seats Greens have ever won in any province is 3 (currently hold that in British Columbia and New Brunswick).  So if Greens win in PEI, it will be first Green government in Canada and I believe second globally.  They've been junior partners in many countries but I believe the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg is the only one they were actually the senior partner.

The centrist Farmers and Greens in Lithuania formed government with the Social Democrats as partners in 2016, and Iceland has a Left-Green prime minister although they aren’t the largest party.

One could argue M5S is a green party too.

I mean people also argue that the world is flat and that the moon is made of cheese; doesn't mean that its right!

Base map in the Gallery.

()

Wow, thanks a lot!

The PCs have elected Dennis King as their new leader.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-pc-leadership-convention-dennis-king-wins-1.5012283

Greens need a much larger PV lead if they want any hope of getting ahead of the Libs in seat count. at this point, I think it'll be a Liberal minority with the greens in supply.

Aren't the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens pretty much green in name only?

Yeah. Calling them a “green” party is like calling the DPRK “Democratic”. Just because ya in the name doesn’t make it so.

And yet they are members of the G/EFA (though not affiliated with the Global Greens, so point taken there).

The Greens with their largest polling lead yet, as the PCs get a post-leadership election bump and seem to take from the Liberals.

https://cra.ca/pei-greens-show-lead-over-governing-liberals-as-provincial-election-looms/

Greens: 38%
PCs: 29%
Liberals: 27%

Feb. 4-24

How much would the Greens have to win the pop vote in order to gain a majority?

Tough to say as uniform swings only work when small shifts, when massive shifts you cannot really apply them.  In the two ridings they already hold they don't have a much room for growth as say the one's they did poorly.  Perhaps one could look at demographics but even then tough to say.  That being said PEI is known for fairly uniform distribution more so than other provinces so pretty much anytime any party has a 5 point lead or more it will result in a majority but in the past its always been a strict two way race so no historical precedent.

From Feb:
https://cra.ca/pei-greens-show-lead-over-governing-liberals-as-provincial-election-looms/

I reckon the greens would come close to a majority on this kind of PV lead

It's hard to model that sort of thing when there is a massive swing, especially in a tiny province like PEI, which is smaller than a typical Florida State House district.

I'd just stick with the usual rule of thumb; 40%=majority.

Who knows, it's uncharted territory. 40% could get them anywhere from only a few seats in Charlottetown, to almost every seat on the island.

P.E.I. District 20 race could see Matthew MacKay against Matthew MacKay
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/mackay-mackay-district20-1.5071171

"Matthew J. has picked up what he thought was his mail at the post office many times, he went home and opened it up. It wasn't his, it belonged to the PC MLA, he said.
'So, I'd call Matthew and say, 'look I opened your mail.' It got to the point where I kind of trained myself not to do that.'"

This is the most stereotypically PEI story ever...

The election has been called for April 23

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-election-called-april-1.5071993

PEI Election Begins with Greens in the Lead

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/pei-election-begins-with-greens-in-the-lead/

Among decided and leaning voters,
the Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker have 35.9% (+5.1% since January),
while the governing Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan have 31.6% support (-4.3%).
The Progressive Conservatives with new leader Dennis King remain in third with 27.5% (-2.1%).
The NDP with Joe Byrne at the helm have 3.7% (-1%).

Forgot this election is coming up. Should make for some peculiar results.

Leantossup.ca currently has the greens on 15 seats with the libs and tories on 6 each, giving the greens a 67.7% chance of winning an absolute majority (you need 14 seats for one)

Wow, great website, thanks for pointing it out.

I'm frankly surprised we haven't had any polling since the writ dropped. Maybe everyone's just focused on Alberta.

  If the Greens won, would they try to put through proportional representation for future PEI elections?

There is already a referendum on that on the same day as the election.

Anyone got a shapefile I could use to make a projection? Thanks

Narrative Research has a new poll out

35-32-29

PEI has never had significant 3rd party votes, so who knows what the map would look like if that were the result.

It's a tough one. The apparent consensus is that the Liberals would win a plurality in the districts that make up Egmont, the PCs in Cardigan, and the Greens in Charlottetown and Malpeque (the latter containing Bevan-Baker's seat,) but I don't know what to expect.

Here's a quick-and-dirty projection based on that poll - Green 13, PC 9, Lib 5

ED	Electoral District	2015	2019
01	Souris - Elmira	PC	PC
02	Georgetown - Pownal	PC	PC
03	Montague - Kilmuir	Liberal	Green
04	Belfast - Murray River	PC	PC
05	Mermaid - Stratford	PC	PC
06	Stratford - Keppoch	PC	PC
07	Morell - Donagh	PC	PC
08	Stanhope - Marshfield	Liberal	Liberal
09	Charlottetown - Hillsborough Park	Liberal	Green
10	Charlottetown - Winsloe	Liberal	Green
11	Charlottetown - Belvedere	Liberal	Green
12	Charlottetown - Victoria Park	Liberal	Green
13	Charlottetown - Brighton	Liberal	Green
14	Charlottetown - West Royalty	Liberal	Green
15	Brackley - Hunter River	Liberal	Green
16	Cornwall - Meadowbank	Liberal	Green
17	New Haven - Rocky Point	Green	Green
18	Rustico - Emerald	PC	PC
19	Borden - Kinkora	PC	Green
20	Kensington - Malpeque	PC	PC
21	Summerside - Wilmot	PC	PC
22	Summerside - South Drive	Liberal	Green
23	Tyne Valley - Sherbrooke	Liberal	Green
24	Evangeline - Miscouche	Liberal	Liberal
25	O'Leary - Inverness	Liberal	Liberal
26	Alberton - Bloomfield	Liberal	Liberal
27	Tignish - Palmer Road	Liberal	Liberal

MQO has another poll out:

40-29-26

Very very interesting.

Green 19, PC 5, Lib 2

It is completely undemocratic for one party to be given 100% of the power with 40% of the vote.  I am sure 8 Green members would disclaim their seats to allow Liberals and PCs to run in the ensuing by-elections.

It's FPTP, and of course they wouldn't.

I'm sure there will be a large correlation between Green vote and the vote in favour of PR from the recent referendum. Basically, the closer the riding is to Charlotteotown, the more likely the Greens will win.

Mainstreet (https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/pei-greens-hold-lead-governing-liberals-in-third/) has 35/29/27.

I haven't found a Shapefile. I have also emailed the Electoral Commission to request one, but not received a response. Feel free, however, to use the base map on the first page, if you wish. You'll have to edit it by hand, but it might be better than nothing.

Thanks (both for making this and for sharing it!)

All campaigns have been suspended. Apparently a Green Party candidate and his child were killed in an accident of some sort. That's the rumour, anyway.

ETA: Apparently a capsized canoe.

CBC is now reporting it was Josh Underhay, the candidate in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park

Very tragic news.

The law requires that the election in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park will be postponed, similar to what happened in Thirsk and Malton in 2010.

Elections PEI has confirmed the postponement, but the MMP referendum will still go on as scheduled in that riding on Tuesday.

My prediction based on recent polling.

1   Souris-Elmira   PC Hold 2   Georgetown-Pownal   PC Hold 3   Montague-Kilmuir   Liberal Hold (closest seat of the night) 4   Belfast-Murray River   PC Hold 5   Mermaid-Stratford   PC Gain from Liberal 6   Stratford-Keppoch   PC Hold 7   Morell-Donagh   PC Hold 8   Stanhope-Marshfield   Liberal Hold 9   Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park   Green Gain from Liberal 10   Charlottetown-Winsloe   Green Gain from Liberal 11   Charlottetown-Belvedere   Green Hold/Gain from Liberal 12   Charlottetown-Victoria   Green Gain from Liberal 13   Charlottetown-Brighton   Green Gain from Liberal 14   Charlottetown-West Royalty   Green Gain from Liberal 15   Brackley-Hunter River    Green Gain from Liberal 16   Cornwall-Meadowbank   Green Gain from Liberal 17   New Haven-Rocky Point   Green Hold 18   Rustico-Emerald   Green Gain from PC 19   Borden-Kinkora   Green Gain from PC 20   Kensington-Malpeque   PC Hold 21   Summerside-Wilmot   PC Hold 22   Summerside-South Drive   Green Gain from Liberal 23   Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke   Green Gain from Liberal 24   Evangeline-Miscouche   Liberal Hold 25   O'Leary-Inverness   Liberal Hold 26   Alberton-Bloomfield   Liberal Hold 27   Tignish-Palmer Road   Liberal Hold

Green 13
PC 8
Liberal 6

Thoughts on whether the MMP referendum will pass? It needs a majority in 60% of seats.

I’ll be changing my avatar from its usual D-PE so as not to confuse folks. I’m not from PEI, nor have I ever visited.

it will probably fail, these things often do. I wonder though if it gets 50% of the popular vote (but not the 60% of seats), and the Greens win, do they go ahead with it anyway? I think I remember hearing they would "respect the outcome" of the referendum, though.

I think most likely outcome is Green win, question is will it be a majority or is their vote inefficient due to huge margins in Charlottetown so only minority.  Also the death of one candidate might create some sympathy votes too.  The PCs will probably form official opposition although with the recent history of polls generally underestimating parties on the right, I would not be shocked if PCs do win.  Not the favourites, but I think a PC win is more likely than a Liberal win.  While anything is possible, I think the Liberals are probably in the worst shape of the three main parties.

FWIW the Mainstreet poll had their Charlottetown numbers only a few points higher than their numbers in the rest of the province.

 Forum: PC 35.4%  Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6% (http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2944/pei-april-2019/)

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

Interesting, as the Liberals can't form a government, would Maclauchlan recommend that Peter Bevan-Baker forms a government even if Dennis King won more seats, and vice versa?

No. Popular vote means jack in FPTP.

I'm not going to do a seat by seat prediction since local factors always play such an outsized role, but here is my overall prediction:

Green: 33%, 9 seats
Tory: 33%, 9 seats
Liberal: 32%, 9 seats
NDP/Indy: 2%, 0 seats

Totally arbitrary, I know.

When do the polls close ?

7pm Atlantic Time

Not at all sure about this one; Green victory still the most likely outcome but it looks like the Tories may be getting a last-minute lift (probably a combination of blue Liberals coming over to stop the Greens, and some new Green voters wavering at the last.)

Redistribution and the rise of a third party into contention for government tend to make MLA forecasts a little more of a gamble, but that's one of the things this site's for, so I might as well make a guess of my own:

GP 13 (36%)
PC 9 (34%)
Lib 4 (25%)

As for the PR vote, this is the question that means the most to me tonight; I staunchly oppose PR (my dream is for Aussie-style preferential, though I know it's very unlikely), and am always very frustrated by the poor arguments that its opponents always make to counter the (what I consider to be) misleading claims by its supporters. I even wrote my MP a frustrated letter a couple years ago on the subject. The PR side has led in most polls, but generally by modest margins, and since this question tends to poll better than it actually performs in the ballot box (just look at BC last fall - a huge relief to me), I think it will probably lose narrowly. A lot will depend on how the parties do, however: if Greens are getting out to vote in good numbers out of enthusiasm for a possible government, that could tip things the other way.

Will be watching both items with great interest, but it's the second that will have me digging my fingernails into the furniture. PEI does tend to count its votes fast, though (probably even faster with the big advance turnout), so we should have our answers soon.

As for the byelection, I suspect it will go with the government (whoever that is), unless the winners end up with 13 MLAs tonight - then you might have the opposition waging a successful campaign to 'Keep the Government in check.' Again, we shall see.

I'm going to go for broke on this one, here's my guess for what the results will be at the end tonight

Green Majority Government

Green:  35.2%, 15 Seats
Tories:  30.9%, 7 Seats
Liberals:  27.2, 4 Seats
NDP: 4.9%, 0 Seats

If I had to guess I'd say MMP gets over 55% and passes.

I'm fully aware of that, I come from the UK after all, but I was referring to which party his caucus would rather work with, if they are in the kingmaker position.

Final prediction:

1   Souris-Elmira   PC Hold 2   Georgetown-Pownal   PC Hold 3   Montague-Kilmuir   PC Gain from Liberal 4   Belfast-Murray River   PC Hold 5   Mermaid-Stratford   PC Gain from Liberal 6   Stratford-Keppoch   PC Hold 7   Morell-Donagh   PC Hold 8   Stanhope-Marshfield   Liberal Hold 9   Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park   Green Gain from Liberal 10   Charlottetown-Winsloe   Green Gain from Liberal 11   Charlottetown-Belvedere   Green Hold/Gain from Liberal 12   Charlottetown-Victoria   Green Gain from Liberal 13   Charlottetown-Brighton   Green Gain from Liberal 14   Charlottetown-West Royalty   Green Gain from Liberal 15   Brackley-Hunter River    Green Gain from Liberal 16   Cornwall-Meadowbank   Green Gain from Liberal 17   New Haven-Rocky Point   Green Hold 18   Rustico-Emerald    PC Hold 19   Borden-Kinkora   Green Gain from PC 20   Kensington-Malpeque   PC Hold 21   Summerside-Wilmot   PC Hold 22   Summerside-South Drive   Green Gain from Liberal 23   Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke   Green Gain from Liberal 24   Evangeline-Miscouche   Liberal Hold 25   O'Leary-Inverness   Liberal Hold 26   Alberton-Bloomfield   Liberal Hold 27   Tignish-Palmer Road   Liberal Hold

Green 12
PC 10
Liberal 5

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/unspecified-threat-at-p-e-i-polling-location-prompts-pause-in-voting-1.4390479 (https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/unspecified-threat-at-p-e-i-polling-location-prompts-pause-in-voting-1.4390479)

Oh you mean if the Liberals come third?

Examples in the rest of Canada would indicate that the Liberals would prefer the Greens as an anti-Conservative voice, but a Green party forming government is totally unprecedented, and its hard to use national politics as precedent in a place as small and unpolarized as PEI. In short, I have no idea :P

Also, the likelihood of coalitions and pseudo-coalitions (like in BC and New Brunswick) seems to be massively over estimated by journalists and political junkies. If we get a minority government, I would still expect that the most likely outcome would be the government securing support for its agenda on a case by case basis and an election within two years.

Here’s my prediction:

Greens: 36%
PC: 32%
Liberal: 26.5%
NDP: 3.5%
Others: 2%

Not going to try to guess the number of seats.

You got it! The Liberals coming third seems to be quite likely. I wonder if the fact that the PEI Liberals are affiliated with the federal Grits will affect anything. As I'm not Canadian but happen to know New Brunswick well, a confidence/pseudo-coalition government perhaps seems more real.

Here's my overall final prediction: a Green majority government with the PC's retaining its official opposition status (based on precedent).

Greens: 36.4% - 16 (5, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23)
PC's: 31.0% - 5 (1, 2, 4, 6, 7)
Liberals: 28.5% - 5 (3, 24, 25, 26, 27)

Re: the referendum, a narrow majority of the province votes to pass, but it fails to be approved by at least 60% of the districts.

Bonus: District 9 goes Green at the by-election, giving the Greens a total of 17 seats as well as a sweep of Charlottetown.

Anyone here think a PC majority is possible?  While skeptical, Forum showed them ahead and they were closest to federal results.  Also PEI Tories are very much your traditional Red Tories so its not uncommon for them to do poorly in between elections due to confusion with federal party which is a bit too right wing for PEI, but then as focus turns to province see their numbers go up.

They did outperform the polls in 11 and 15, so I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility, especially with this three way race.

If the blue Liberal vote really crumbles and goes to them, it's possible, but I don't think it's very likely - remember that 36% of voters went to the advance polls, so a last-minute swing will be blunted a bit by that.

I still think it'll be a Green lead, but smaller than most have forecast.

Six polls in (seven referendum) now. Early thoughts:

Tories leading in three seats, including Alberton - Bloomfield. Augurs well for them. Liberals in one (a western seat, so to be expected), and Greens in two (including the leader's seat). Looks like a close Green-Tory fight, but I can't yet make a guess as to which will win.

Referendum: 'No' leads in five of seven polls, including the Tory & Liberal-leaning seats, and mostly by good margins too. I'm prepared to say that my prediction of a 'No' victory is correct, and maybe by a bigger margin than I expected.

Not surprised, it seems much like in BC and past referendums the undecided breaks for the status quo.

What sites are you guys using for results?

Greens seems to be under-performing 

I'd wait until we have more than 1 poll and until we have Charlottetown results to say that.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/pei/2019/results/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/cbc-pei-election-watch-live-1.5107105

I thought the polls only closed now.

They closed 7 Atlantic, not 7 Eastern.

Thanks.  I thought I read a CBC news story that said '8 PM sharp.'

Counting started 30 minutes ago.

Most up-to-date figures can be found on the Elections PEI site:

http://results.electionspei.ca/provincial/results_2019/index.html
http://results.electionspei.ca/provincial/results_2019/referendum.html

Liberals now seem to be doing better than expected, and Greens worse. Maybe the whole issue of party organization & funding is showing itself here, as the Greens aren't as able to get their supporters out as the other two parties are?

At any rate, Charlottetown is still hanging back more than the other areas when it comes to the results, but the Tories have done well there before, so I wouldn't assume that to be necessarily a Green-Liberal battleground.

'Yes' doing well in central PEI , 'No' winning in east & west. I doubt that a big 'Yes' vote in Charlottetown will save it for them, though it will probably make it closer than it is right now. (I strongly oppose PR, so this was the big issue for me tonight rather than who would form government.) The referendum counting seems to be moving faster than the election, probably because (a) the turnout is lower and (b) there are only two choices to sort, rather than four or five.

I think it is pretty much a foregone conclusion the PCs will win the popular vote, but who will win most seats still unknown and a minority looks more likely than a majority.  At this point PC majority only one plausible but not likely.  Referendum has tightened as Charlottetown results came in so looks like the urban centres support MMP but rural areas against.

From my count on the CBC TV, 10 P.Cs have been declared elected so far, 3 Greens and 1 Liberal.

It's settled in at 11 Tories, 9 Greens and 6 Liberals for a while now - some close ones (outer Charlottetown, mostly) may flip but that looks like being the outcome.

Looks like the Tory vote has held up much better than forecast, and the Liberal collapse wasn't as complete as expected.

'Yes' racking up some wins in the Charlottetown area (and leading 14-13 overall), but the huge 'No' margins in the rural west should salvage a 'No' victory. Maybe I'm just being overly optimistic (especially given what I said so soon after the polls closed!) but I think that's what will happen. As long as 'No' wins, I'll be happy.

This is a weird election; almost like New Brunswick in reverse--not to mention an inverse of that historical PEI pattern where small polling margins can yield massive seat differences.

I sort of had an inkling the PCs might wind up on top, what w/that late poll showing them in the lead--and sure enough, they have a huge polling headway.  But it looks like a lot of that has been wasted on rural landslides; so what *should* be a solid PC victory vs split opposition has turned into a minority.  (And proof that even in PEI, the urban-rural left-right sorting trend has prevailed.)

Oh, and the PCs are up to 12, with the Premier falling behind in his own seat.

I don't know if it's large wins in rural ridings or large wins for the incumbents.

CBC just called it a PC minority.  While it's possible Liberals could prop up the Greens, my guess is unlike BC, the PCs are Red Tories here so it will be an issue by issue and Dennis King will be next premier.  Forum once again was closest and the pattern of underestimating conservative parties continues.

Not only were they the most accurate (like they were last week with Alberta), but it looks like they underestimated the Tory vote too (just like they did with Alberta). Very interesting result, and perhaps bodes well for the federal party in six months.

Referendum looks like it's going down to the wire - it may prove closer to my forecast this morning (52-48) than I thought. 'No' has won ten constituencies, so it just needs one more for a victory. Here's hoping it not only gets that technical victory but an outright 'No' majority - otherwise there will be further cries of 'unfair' and the like, and probably another referendum. The pro-PR crowd will just keep having more, in different provinces, until they get what they want.

Why such the boner against MMP?  It works fine in germany and all you keep doing in this thread is bitch about it.

I'm not denying that other countries are fine with it - Germany, NZ, etc. - but, for me, it violates the essential principle that all MPs/MLAs should be directly elected by the voters, rather than some being elected that way and some getting in by virtue of being highly-ranked on party lists. Parties already have too much power in this country, and PR would not improve that situation. That's my biggest (though not only) objection. Usually those who oppose it go on about minority government and the like, but that's never really bothered me.

You make a fair point, though - I have been a bit over-vehement about it here. The tension of a close result, I guess. Will refrain from excessive editorializing from here on.

True enough; if you were a Tory incumbent, there was little reason for voters to vote against you this time around (least of all stunting on behalf of the Greens).

Taking away the 8 seats where Tory incumbents were running, in the balance the Libs actually have a slight vote plurality, the Tories are in third and less than five points separates the three parties.

Another thing: unless we see a "plurality bump", C'town-Hillsborough Park is *not* likely to go Tory.

Unless there's a future coalition or confidence-&-supply agreement, the big blue wave has claimed another victim. Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Alberta, & now PEI... & with Newfoundland perhaps joining that list next month too.

The important question, however, is how long the PC's can last. I could definitely see a Premier Bevan-Baker happening fairly quickly. In all likelihood, the PC's will be asked to form a government. They must call the House together within 6 months, & that's when things will get funky. It looks like they'll just try to run a minority & get support where they can on a case-by-case basis, but if the Greens & the Liberals can indeed form a workable coalition or arrangement, then they can defeat the PC government at that point on a confidence motion, at which point, by convention, Bevan-Baker (as Leader of the Opposition) would be asked to form a government.

In other news:
MMP referendum officially defeated: the "No" side, in addition to winning province-wide with 51.1% of the popular vote, has officially won 12/27 ridings, one more than the threshold (11) needed to defeat the question according to the Referendum Act. Ironic that the "Yes" side has won a majority of ridings in the referendum & yet has lost the province-wide popular vote.

Also, funnily enough: there are now more Green seats in PEI than in the rest of Canada combined.

It is indeed - a lot of people expected that it might go the other way, with 'Yes' using up its vote in big majorities in Charlottetown. Instead, it's winning those constituencies by more modest (but still pretty good) margins, while the 'No' side is swamping the rural west: districts 25-27 all went more than 70% 'No,' while Victoria Park & Kensington - Malpeque are going more than 65% 'Yes.' That last district surprises me a little, given the strong Tory showing there.

I don't know that the Liberal loss here necessarily is reflective of a 'big blue wave' - Atlantic provinces tend to change governments even if they're still happy with them (such as when the Liberals won in PEI in 2007, or the Tories in NB in 1999), but just feel that 'it's time for a change.' Three terms seem to be the limit for PEI voters for the last forty years. Now, I'm not saying that discontent with the federal Grits had nothing to do with it, but the Liberals started sliding and the Greens started leading well before the federal party started smelling trouble for itself.

lol at the notion of Charlottetown going to vote for a PC candidate to bolster a PC government just months after perhaps the single best Green candidate in the province was tragically killed with his son.

It's not going to happen.

It doesn't look like it; that area wasn't too good to the Tories tonight.

Keep in mind, though, that there have been some pretty remarkable swings in by-elections held soon after a new government takes office (not just in PEI, but NB and NS too). It doesn't always happen, though, and it would have to for the Tories to take it, so odds are very good indeed that the Greens will get a tenth member in a month or so.

Not to mention, at the risk of sounding morbid, that the Greens may get a certain sympathy vote due to the death of their candidate, who probably would have won tonight. A lot may depend on who they run in his place.

God what a tool.

While it is possible you will see a supply and confidence between Liberals and Greens, I believe it is very unlikely.  Unlike in other provinces, the ideological differences between parties are quite small with all three parties being broadly centrists.  Liberals playing second fiddle just further marginalizes them reducing the chance they ever return to power while Greens would be best to use their time in opposition to build up their profile and show they have a team ready to govern.  The PCs in contrast with other provinces are very much Red Tories so on a lot of issues they can find common ground with Liberals and NDP which you wouldn't in other provinces.

Agreed - you see that with the Atlantic provinces in general. Their Tory governments tend to be pretty moderate (even to the left of some Prairie NDP governments!), so the ideological gulf that you see federally or in Ontario isn't present. The Liberals & NDP will likely do exactly as you say, for exactly the reasons you say it.

Is the ideological moderation of the Tories just because of the Maritimes being more left-wing than the nation as a whole?

That's certainly part of it, as the economies tend to be more dependent on government funds than elsewhere in the country.

Additionally, Liberal administrations tend to be more centrist/right-leaning than their federal or Ontario counterparts are too. There's just much less of an ideological shift when governments change around here in general, and more just of a change of people running things and in certain policy areas.

That also connects with what I said before about still-popular governments getting replaced after a few terms, which tends not to happen elsewhere.

Now I really hope PBB goes for the Premiership just to give the people who don't understand the Westminster system another data point proving them wrong.

Part of the reason there isn't the ideological gulf is Atlantic provinces are more monolithic than other provinces so when you have greater variance within a province in economy, incomes, industries etc., you tend to get greater polarization and also pushback by those who don't like the other side while when less differences you don't get the same polarization.  Besides there was a time when PCs in other provinces were like they are now in Atlantic Canada, see Bill Davis, Duff Roblin of Manitoba, Peter Lougheed while federally Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield.  Its more they have swung rightward in other provinces but haven't in Atlantic Canada.

With the counts now completed, we can go into some details:

The largest margin of victory was Jamie Fox (PC) in Borden - Kinkora, who won by 39.2%. This is in keeping with the government side getting the biggest constituency majority - even in close elections - since 1966.

Previous title-holders:
2015 - Sonny Gallant (Lib) wins Evangeline - Miscouche by 36.7%
2011 - Sonny Gallant (Lib) wins Evangeline - Miscouche by 58.5% (record for modern times)
2007 - Ron MacKinley (Lib) wins Cornwall - Meadowbank by 30.2%
2003 - Pat Binns (PC) wins Murray River - Gaspereaux by 42.5%
2000 - Mitch Murphy (PC) wins Kensington - Malpeque by 55.1% (Tory record)
1996 - Pat Mella (PC) wins Glen Stewart - Bellevue Cove by 42.2%
1993 - Edward Clark (Lib) wins 3rd Prince (C) by 47.5%
1989 - Edward Clark (Lib) wins 3rd Prince (C) by 54.3%
1986 - Stanley Bruce (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 25.1%
1982 - Jim Lee (PC) wins 5th Queens (A) by 29.1% (ironically, he went on to lose it in 1986)
1979 - George McMahon (PC) wins 5th Prince (A) by 42.8%
1978 - James Fay (Lib) wins 1st Kings (C) by 26.7%
1974 - Bob Campbell (Lib) wins 1st Prince (C) by 34.7%
1970 - Alex Campbell (Lib) wins 5th Prince (C) by 35.9%
1966 - Lorne Bonnell (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 25.5%
1962 - Lorne Bonnell (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 28.3% (Liberal wins biggest margin, in spite of narrow PC victory provincewide)
1959 - Lorne Bonnell (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 23.1% (see above)
1955 - Lorne Bonnell (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 42.2%
1951 - Harvey Douglas (Lib) wins 2nd Kings (A) by 25.1%
1947 - Wilfred Arsenault (Lib) wins 3rd Prince (A) by 45.8%
1943 - Tom Kickham (Lib) wins 1st Kings (C) by 22.8%
1939 - Thane Campbell (Lib) wins 1st Prince (C) by 21.8%
1935 - Thane Campbell (Lib) wins 1st Prince (C) by 30.9% (the famous 30-seat Liberal sweep)

Looking more closely at the constituencies, I see - in reference to my earlier surprise at the big 'Yes' margin in Kensington - Malpeque - that there's a big difference in turnout between the referendum & the general election; far larger than in any other riding.

To wit: 2357 valid votes cast in the referendum (65.7% for 'Yes') while 3233 were cast in the general election (62.1% for PC Matthew MacKay).

Barring a counting error, has anyone any idea what happened in that district to account for that big turnout disparity?


EDIT: Looks like a counting error after all, unless one is prepared to believe that the advance poll registered 89% 'Yes' votes and a much smaller total vote than the general election. I'm going to guess that that count of 94 'No' in the advance poll is going to end up being 794 or 943 or something like that.

Should that be the case, and there are 700-900 more 'No' votes, then that makes the final figures 52%-48%, so I at least forecast one of the outcomes correctly!

Going into the weeds a little further, let's compare how well the parties did in their own ridings.

In the twelve Tory seats, the votes ran as follows:

PC - 49.3% (12 MLAs)
GP - 25.1%
Lib - 24.0%
NDP - 1.4%

'No' - 53.8% (8 )
'Yes' - 46.2% (4)

In the eight Green ridings, things look like this:

GP - 41.6% (8 MLAs)
Lib - 27.9%
PC - 27.4%
NDP - 3.0%

'Yes' - 54.4% (6)
'No' - 45.6% (2)


And in the six Grit constituencies, things ran thus:

Lib - 43.3% (6 MLAs)
GP - 26.5%
PC - 22.8%
NDP - 6.2%

'No' - 57.5% (3)
'Yes' - 42.5% (3)

That high 'No' is almost entirely due to those western seats going so heavily against. The three in central PEI all voted 'Yes.'


What to glean from these numbers? Bearing in mind that the ballots have barely cooled and this is hardly a long-considered analysis, I'd say that it shows that there were no set two-party fights in the province (that is to say, there were plenty of PC-Green, PC-Lib, Lib-Green contests, with some very strong third-place showings too), as evidenced by all three types of seat showing a fairly evenly-divided non-winners vote. The next election will be interesting, as third-placed parties will probably drop back in most ridings, to the benefit/cost to all three parties.

As expected, Green seats voted 'Yes' much more than the other parties' districts did, though the Liberal seats definitely showed a rural-urban split on the question (all parties' seats showed this, but the Liberals most of all - again, thanks to those far west seats).


EDIT (16 May): Have updated the above figures now that official tallies have been published by Elections PEI. I was correct about one thing: the advance poll result for the referendum was wrong for Kensington - Malpeque, flipping it to 'No' (making it 13-14), and the total 'No' vote to 52%.

There are other ways of doing proportional representation where voters do vote directly for candidates. STV easily comes to mind

Yes, and I wouldn't necessarily mind that method, particularly in a geographically small province like PEI (or NS, where I live). It's not such a good idea for the big provinces or federally, where the multi-member ridings would be so vast in places (northern Ontario, the Territories, etc.) that it wouldn't really be practical to use.

In 2015, Gord McNeilly ran for the NDP and was leading until the advanced poll came in.  This time Gord McNeilly ran for the Liberals and was trailing until the advanced poll came in.

Disting Flyer is correct, but I wanted to add one thing:

I would hesitate to call most of the Maritimes 'left wing' in the traditional sense of the term. The Maritimes are poor, but they aren't especially left either economically or socially. Movement conservatism never really caught on here, but neither has overt progressivism for the most part. Our politics are still kind of stuck in the 1970's that way.

I doubt he pulls it off. The Liberals would be playing with fire to become a junior coalition partner so I suspect they won't bite.

Though I'm wondering about New Brunswick as a perhaps language-war-motivated semi-exception--while actual Tory premiers have tended to be moderate, they also depend on a hard-right/populist element that's sometimes inclined t/w alternate forces like Confederation of Regions and People's Alliance (and federally, Reform/Alliance); and w/People's Alliance presently a minority partner, Blaine Higgs is leading what's likely the most authentically right-leaning Maritime government in eons...

Is a coalition government likely?

And that's the seat where the delightfully named former Lib MLA Bush Dumville ran as an independent.

No. Coalitions almost never happen in Canada.

The PEI campaign was how I wish political campaigns could be run. Positive and collegial, and a genuine willingness to talk about so many different issues because they mattered to Islanders.

Early vote result:
PC: 37.29%
Lib: 32.77%
Grn: 26.29%
NDP: 3.20%

Day vote result:
PC: 35.83%
Grn: 34.49%
Lib: 26.61%
NDP: 2.81%


Percentage of the vote that was cast early:
PC: 48%
Grn: 41%
Lib: 52%
NDP: 50%
Total: 47%

Have advance/early votes *always* been this massive in PEI?

It was pretty high last time too. Very annoying.

It's almost as if for many, being bound to voting on e-day is like being bound to land lines, or it's something you do only if you *really* have to.  (Used to be, advance voting had that same only-if-you-really-have-to status.)