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Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: TheRocketRaccoon on November 01, 2018, 07:49:06 am



Title: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: TheRocketRaccoon on November 01, 2018, 07:49:06 am
https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/499165642819184003-f-m-poll-release-october-2018-draft-1.pdf

Wolf 59
Wagner 33


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2018, 07:51:43 am
No surprise.

Wolf has handled Pittsburgh well and there's a complete repudiation in PA of Trumpism right now.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: wbrocks67 on November 01, 2018, 08:12:27 am
how are those golf spikes working for you Scott


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Badger on November 01, 2018, 08:32:46 am
how are those golf spikes working for you Scott

It's shocking but sad that my mid-70s parents I believe both voted for this violent ass. My father, I can sadly understand. He's a 7 3 year old retired accountant whom it was one of my saddest days when I found and rand's The Fountainhead among his old books I was helping to clear out of the house. He's giving money to the Heritage Foundation forever, and I can think of only once or twice I know he's ever voted for a Democrat. But my mother? She likes Reagan and, to a lesser degree, W. I believe she was in Obama Romney Clinton voter. The Romney is the only part I'm not certain about. But the fact she could just poo poo such a vicious violent threat and still vote for the guy because she doesn't like Wolf's tax policies is... Beyond disappointing


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Prolocutor Bagel23 on November 01, 2018, 09:16:43 am
I'm moving this from likely D---> safe D. It's over.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on November 01, 2018, 10:42:45 am
Oh wow, only 64% of Republicans say they support Wagner.

#WalkAway


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: History505 on November 01, 2018, 10:53:04 am
I'm moving this from likely D---> safe D. It's over.
It's been over for a long time now.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2018, 11:56:11 am
I will seriously LMAO if Wagner loses by 20+ points. It would be very interesting to see that map.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: President Johnson on November 01, 2018, 11:57:41 am
Maybe Scotty's deplorable sign just helped to educate voters and they indeed want a more socialist PA.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists on November 01, 2018, 01:17:58 pm
I think Wolf might break 70% in MontCo now.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on November 01, 2018, 01:18:48 pm
I think Wolf might break 70% in MontCo now.

If heís winning by anywhere near this margin, he definitely will.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: isoscelessquare on November 01, 2018, 01:32:39 pm
I think Wolf might break 70% in MontCo now.

If heís winning by anywhere near this margin, he definitely will.

Yeah, this map may end up very similar to Rendell in 2006.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: ctherainbow on November 01, 2018, 03:14:41 pm
I'm moving this from likely D---> safe D. It's over.

I meannnn... I'm used to you being pessimistic, Bagel, but come on.

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I think I feel safe enough calling this Wolf 60% at this point.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: wbrocks67 on November 01, 2018, 04:26:45 pm
I think Wolf might break 70% in MontCo now.

As a Montco-er, that would be amazing. Hillary almost hit 60%, so I think 70% is definitely possible for Wolf


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on November 01, 2018, 04:32:40 pm
Oh how I would LOVE to see Westmoreland go blue again :(


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Badger on November 01, 2018, 04:52:06 pm
Oh how I would LOVE to see Westmoreland go blue again :(

Won't happen. Wagner will still win their I'm afraid. However, I expect a bunch of other Southwest PA counties outside Allegheny flip. That being all the adjacent counties except Butler in Westmoreland, and possibly Fayette as well

EDIT: oh yeah, Mercer and Lawrence as well for sure.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 01, 2018, 04:59:09 pm
I think Wolf might break 70% in MontCo now.

As a Montco-er, that would be amazing. Hillary almost hit 60%, so I think 70% is definitely possible for Wolf

Moreover, it looks like Wolf might get past the 60% mark in the statewide vote. That would be a repeat of 2006, when Ed Rendell got over 60% of the vote.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: #WalkAwayFromDesantis on November 01, 2018, 05:36:27 pm
How will the county map look like with that insane margin?


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: wbrocks67 on November 01, 2018, 05:37:45 pm
Its very possible that Wolf breaks 90-92% in Philly.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Prolocutor Bagel23 on November 01, 2018, 06:54:53 pm
I wonder how the Alabama between Pittsburgh and Philly will look.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists on November 01, 2018, 06:56:48 pm
How will the county map look like with that insane margin?
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This is Wolf's ceiling, I'd guess. Downshift margins a few points and you'd get the map.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 01, 2018, 07:54:28 pm
How will the county map look like with that insane margin?
[img]https://preview.ibb.co/ccX650/2018-PA-GOV-1.png[/img
This is Wolf's ceiling, I'd guess. Downshift margins a few points and you'd get the map.


That's still pretty damn glorious.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2018, 09:33:35 pm
Oh how I would LOVE to see Westmoreland go blue again :(

Westmoreland is gone no matter what. Even Saccone and Corbett of all people landslided by double digits there.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Chateaubriand Pact on November 01, 2018, 09:35:36 pm
You really think Wolf can win Union?


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Lou Barletta's Teeth on November 01, 2018, 10:24:34 pm
Of course this poll hasn't been entered in yet but the junk one showing Stefanowski winning in CT is ::)


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2018, 10:29:11 pm
Of course this poll hasn't been entered in yet but the junk one showing Stefanowski winning in CT is ::)

Uh, I entered it in hours ago.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: New York Dude on November 01, 2018, 10:32:21 pm
Of course this poll hasn't been entered in yet but the junk one showing Stefanowski winning in CT is ::)

Well, this poll is junk too, with its sample size of only 214 likely voters.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: ctherainbow on November 02, 2018, 03:02:06 am
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Call me biased because I live in NEPA, but knowing PA demographics pretty well off the top of my head, I have a hard time believing that Elk and Cameron counties would flip before Susquehanna, Snyder, or Lycoming.   :O


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists on November 02, 2018, 06:23:28 am
Oh how I would LOVE to see Westmoreland go blue again :(

Westmoreland is gone no matter what. Even Saccone and Corbett of all people landslided by double digits there.
Corbett won it by 15 while losing by 10. Given an even swing, it'd be very close, and given that Corbett also had ties to the area, it probably goes D.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: IceSpear on November 02, 2018, 12:50:49 pm
Oh how I would LOVE to see Westmoreland go blue again :(

Westmoreland is gone no matter what. Even Saccone and Corbett of all people landslided by double digits there.
Corbett won it by 15 while losing by 10. Given an even swing, it'd be very close, and given that Corbett also had ties to the area, it probably goes D.

Uniform swing doesn't exist though. Besides, I'm skeptical Wolf can actually win by 26.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: Comrade Funk on November 02, 2018, 12:51:48 pm
It's somewhat amusing the only statewide race ads I've seen are from New Jersey.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: cg41386 on November 03, 2018, 11:34:26 am
Quote
Call me biased because I live in NEPA, but knowing PA demographics pretty well off the top of my head, I have a hard time believing that Elk and Cameron counties would flip before Susquehanna, Snyder, or Lycoming.   :O

Havenít one or both voted Dem in the recent past? And arenít they sparsely populated to begin with?


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: darthpi on November 03, 2018, 07:58:06 pm
Bottom really falling out for the Republicans in this state. Would be great if Wagner drags Perry and Kelly down with him.


Title: Re: PA Franklin & Marshall: Wolf +26
Post by: ctherainbow on November 04, 2018, 11:19:43 pm
Havenít one or both voted Dem in the recent past? And arenít they sparsely populated to begin with?

Elk voted Obama in '08, then Romney in '12, so Elk I could see flipping first.  That's my bad; NWPA is the quarter of the state I've researched the least.  Cameron is much more Republican, though, on par with Lycoming and Susquehanna Counties when it comes to the past few presidential elections, so I would think they would flip together.  We'll have to see.  The way things are looking, Wolf might even convince some Potter and Juniata County residents to vote for him.    :p