Talk Elections

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/499165642819184003-f-m-poll-release-october-2018-draft-1.pdf

Wolf 59
Wagner 33

No surprise.

Wolf has handled Pittsburgh well and there's a complete repudiation in PA of Trumpism right now.

how are those golf spikes working for you Scott

It's shocking but sad that my mid-70s parents I believe both voted for this violent ass. My father, I can sadly understand. He's a 7 3 year old retired accountant whom it was one of my saddest days when I found and rand's The Fountainhead among his old books I was helping to clear out of the house. He's giving money to the Heritage Foundation forever, and I can think of only once or twice I know he's ever voted for a Democrat. But my mother? She likes Reagan and, to a lesser degree, W. I believe she was in Obama Romney Clinton voter. The Romney is the only part I'm not certain about. But the fact she could just poo poo such a vicious violent threat and still vote for the guy because she doesn't like Wolf's tax policies is... Beyond disappointing

I'm moving this from likely D---> safe D. It's over.

Oh wow, only 64% of Republicans say they support Wagner.

#WalkAway

It's been over for a long time now.

I will seriously LMAO if Wagner loses by 20+ points. It would be very interesting to see that map.

Maybe Scotty's deplorable sign just helped to educate voters and they indeed want a more socialist PA.

I think Wolf might break 70% in MontCo now.

If he’s winning by anywhere near this margin, he definitely will.

Yeah, this map may end up very similar to Rendell in 2006.

I meannnn... I'm used to you being pessimistic, Bagel, but come on.

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I think I feel safe enough calling this Wolf 60% at this point.

As a Montco-er, that would be amazing. Hillary almost hit 60%, so I think 70% is definitely possible for Wolf

Oh how I would LOVE to see Westmoreland go blue again :(

Won't happen. Wagner will still win their I'm afraid. However, I expect a bunch of other Southwest PA counties outside Allegheny flip. That being all the adjacent counties except Butler in Westmoreland, and possibly Fayette as well

EDIT: oh yeah, Mercer and Lawrence as well for sure.

Moreover, it looks like Wolf might get past the 60% mark in the statewide vote. That would be a repeat of 2006, when Ed Rendell got over 60% of the vote.

How will the county map look like with that insane margin?

Its very possible that Wolf breaks 90-92% in Philly.

I wonder how the Alabama between Pittsburgh and Philly will look.

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This is Wolf's ceiling, I'd guess. Downshift margins a few points and you'd get the map.

That's still pretty damn glorious.

Westmoreland is gone no matter what. Even Saccone and Corbett of all people landslided by double digits there.

You really think Wolf can win Union?

Of course this poll hasn't been entered in yet but the junk one showing Stefanowski winning in CT is ::)

Uh, I entered it in hours ago.

Well, this poll is junk too, with its sample size of only 214 likely voters.

Call me biased because I live in NEPA, but knowing PA demographics pretty well off the top of my head, I have a hard time believing that Elk and Cameron counties would flip before Susquehanna, Snyder, or Lycoming.   :O

Corbett won it by 15 while losing by 10. Given an even swing, it'd be very close, and given that Corbett also had ties to the area, it probably goes D.

Uniform swing doesn't exist though. Besides, I'm skeptical Wolf can actually win by 26.

It's somewhat amusing the only statewide race ads I've seen are from New Jersey.

Haven’t one or both voted Dem in the recent past? And aren’t they sparsely populated to begin with?

Bottom really falling out for the Republicans in this state. Would be great if Wagner drags Perry and Kelly down with him.

Elk voted Obama in '08, then Romney in '12, so Elk I could see flipping first.  That's my bad; NWPA is the quarter of the state I've researched the least.  Cameron is much more Republican, though, on par with Lycoming and Susquehanna Counties when it comes to the past few presidential elections, so I would think they would flip together.  We'll have to see.  The way things are looking, Wolf might even convince some Potter and Juniata County residents to vote for him.    :p