Talk Elections

Nelson: 49
Scott: 47

https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1058026432176234498

Guys, I'm starting to think Nelson might be up 2.

This was conducted before the Trump rally, this could not be closer for Nelson.

lol

Looking into why Nelson is a bit above Gillium. Gillum is actually leading among registered voters, while Nelson and Scott are tied. I think the difference among likely voters is that Nelson is doing 4 points better with white voters. Gillum does better with non-white voters by a point.

Makes sense. At this point, I think it's fair to classify Florida as Lean Democratic in both the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races.

Trumps JA has risen in FL from Oct. 16-20 (43/51) to Oct. 24-29 (47/49). In a close Race that can be a BIG Deal.

Some major poll herding going on... big red flag.

Even internal polls are getting in on it. What does it mean?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html)

If you exclude that crappy Online Poll from SurveyUSA we're looking at a 2 Point Race between Nelson/Scott.

Either a big statistical anomaly occurred, or pollsters are putting their finger on the scale to hedge and make sure if they're wrong, they're wrong like everyone else. What it means is there's a higher than normal chance of an outcome that highly deviates from expectations. Could benefit either candidate. It might be helpful to look at polls which break from the consensus, but there really haven't been many lately (those that do probably lean more toward Nelson).


Because of poll herding! It's extremely unlikely you'd get that many polls showing exactly the same margin. That's not how statistics works. Poll herding actually makes the polling average less accurate: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/