Talk Elections

Likely R

You know Bredesen is in bad shape when this is the best poll he's gotten in a long time.

We have now had four consecutive polls (NBC/Marist, Fox, Emerson, and CNN/SSRS), showing Blackburn up by mid to high single digits. Tennessee is beyond reach for the Democrats at this point, a fact that is driven even further home by the very high Republican turnout that has been observed there. Anyone still entertaining any hopes in Bredesen at this point is sorely misguided.

Yet, it's also low enough to explain why the Republicans are still pumping money into this. The only chance Bredesen has is that his favorable have tended to be higher, but I wouldn't put that any higher than 10%.

I agree. Even at this late stage, Bredesen's personal approval ratings are much higher than Blackburn's, but he is losing because Tennessee is an inherently Republican state, and party identification matters more to many voters there than anything else. Which is unfortunate, given that Tennessee hasn't elected a Democratic Senator in 28 years and that Bredesen is a moderate who would help give some balance to the Senate, while Blackburn is a hardline conservative who would only worsen polarization.

As I stated elsewhere, Blackburn would be the first Republican Senator from Tennessee to not fit the "moderate or establishmentarian" mold, in contrast to Corker, Alexander, Frist, Thompson, and Baker.

This is the race I want more than any other.

Very much a tossup race.

I feel this will come down the wire, probably like TX ...

Lean Republican. The chance of Bredi winning is about equal to Beto. Sadly.

Toss-up, but this isn’t more likely to flip than IN, MO, or ND lmao.

Bredesen will win. Blacks will put him over the top

Likely R

This looks very much like the 2002 Gubernatorial race in TN, when Bredesen won by 3%.

The polls back then were similar to what they were now, just that 2002 was more a Republican year.

I think if there's any truly surprising Senate upset next week, it'll be Bredesen eking out a win. He's arguably the best non-incumbent Democratic Senate candidate the party could have hoped for not only in TN, but in the entire South. That doesn't mean he's going to win, but it does means nobody else would have done better in his shoes.

I'd be perfectly content with sacrificing Heitkamp to the election gods if it means we get Bredesen in return.

I'm trying to research those polls, but nothing comes up.  Do you happen to have a link to them?

Аnd again, I'm still at the thought that Bredesen could win (odds 50/50). I really hope for this very much
 

Polls says she was supposed to win by 14

For once, you might be right.

Like Heitkamp, Bredesen may have recovered a little bit recently, but it's almost certainly too little, too late.

I’d rather sacrafise 2 loses if we could win this one.

Phil would instantly become my favorite senator.

But I digress