Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 02, 2018, 11:09:13 AM



Title: AZ-VoxPopuli (R): Sinema 4+
Post by: Hindsight was 2020 on November 02, 2018, 11:09:13 AM
Sinema: 52
McSally: 48
https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/AZ-Statewide-Wave-2-Toplines-10.31.18.pdf


Title: Re: AZ-VoxPopuli (R): Sinema 4+
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on November 02, 2018, 11:10:30 AM
Yah yeet


Title: Re: AZ-VoxPopuli (R): Sinema 4+
Post by: Xing on November 02, 2018, 11:13:10 AM
This is certainly one of the more eccentric pollsters, I'll say that.


Title: Re: AZ-VoxPopuli (R): Sinema 4+
Post by: Politician on November 02, 2018, 11:17:29 AM
RIP 2016


Title: Re: AZ-VoxPopuli (R): Sinema 4+
Post by: Gass3268 on November 02, 2018, 11:19:10 AM
This is certainly one of the more eccentric pollsters, I'll say that.

Also it's good to see here, other than Florida, we aren't seeing any herding.


Title: Re: AZ-VoxPopuli (R): Sinema 4+
Post by: 2016 on November 02, 2018, 12:25:33 PM
You can toss that Poll.

# 1 They say 52 Male/48 Female. Not happing. The Likely Electorate will be quite the Opposite, 52 or 51 Female/49 or 48 Male (The EV has already about 51 Female)

# 2 Party ID getting even more ridiculous 34 R / 34 D / 32 I

# 3 16% Hispanics, Give me a break! According to EV Totals from Data Orbital Hispanic Turnout sits at 11%.



Title: Re: AZ-VoxPopuli (R): Sinema 4+
Post by: libertpaulian on November 02, 2018, 12:34:30 PM
You can toss that Poll.

# 1 They say 52 Male/48 Female. Not happing. The Likely Electorate will be quite the Opposite, 52 or 51 Female/49 or 48 Male (The EV has already about 51 Female)

# 2 Party ID getting even more ridiculous 34 R / 34 D / 32 I

# 3 16% Hispanics, Give me a break! According to EV Totals from Data Orbital Hispanic Turnout sits at 11%.


Actually, you're helping Sinema's case.  If they oversampled men and undersampled women, then Sinema is likely leading by the same percentage if not more.


Title: Re: AZ-VoxPopuli (R): Sinema 4+
Post by: Hammy on November 02, 2018, 12:36:16 PM
This is certainly one of the more eccentric pollsters, I'll say that.

Also it's good to see here, other than Florida, we aren't seeing any herding.

What exactly does herding refer to in polls?


Title: Re: AZ-VoxPopuli (R): Sinema 4+
Post by: Sestak on November 02, 2018, 12:37:32 PM
Vox PopuLOL


Title: Re: AZ-VoxPopuli (R): Sinema 4+
Post by: DavidB. on November 02, 2018, 12:38:30 PM
This is certainly one of the more eccentric pollsters, I'll say that.

Also it's good to see here, other than Florida, we aren't seeing any herding.

What exactly does herding refer to in polls?
Pollsters changing their weighing method in order to move towards the other pollsters in a certain race and avoid showing a completely different picture than other pollsters so that they don't look bad if they're wrong.


Title: Re: AZ-VoxPopuli (R): Sinema 4+
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 02, 2018, 12:55:36 PM
Yes, and the Rasmussen poll showing a McSalley and Ducey landslide isn't correct.


Title: Re: AZ-VoxPopuli (R): Sinema 4+
Post by: 2016 on November 02, 2018, 01:18:47 PM
You can toss that Poll.

# 1 They say 52 Male/48 Female. Not happing. The Likely Electorate will be quite the Opposite, 52 or 51 Female/49 or 48 Male (The EV has already about 51 Female)

# 2 Party ID getting even more ridiculous 34 R / 34 D / 32 I

# 3 16% Hispanics, Give me a break! According to EV Totals from Data Orbital Hispanic Turnout sits at 11%.


Actually, you're helping Sinema's case.  If they oversampled men and undersampled women, then Sinema is likely leading by the same percentage if not more.


This Poll is incorrect but so are CNN/SSRS & NBC/Marist. The most accurate Poll is the FOX NEWS one I think with both Candidates at 46% each.