Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: President Griffin on November 02, 2018, 09:17:57 pm



Title: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: President Griffin on November 02, 2018, 09:17:57 pm
Abrams 50
Kemp 46

614 LVs
+/- 4%

Here's The Poll (https://www.scribd.com/document/392234994/Southern-Majority-20-20-Insights-Polling?fbclid=IwAR2AVT3c47-H0m5CvJNyXaLP-G0taf7md2TblKfJDV3-lfnUT2UM0WJvu7c)

Still looking for the actual poll itself, but it's mentioned here (https://www.salon.com/2018/11/02/new-poll-finds-stacey-abrams-could-avoid-a-runoff-against-brian-kemp/).

Worth noting that their Twitter and website haven't been updated in years, and the director of the polling firm (at least when it was last updated) is a former Executive Director for the Democratic Party of Georgia. The organization that commissioned the poll is also ran by former DPG/YDG officers.

Basically, it's probably appropriate to treat this like a Democratic internal.


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: Eraserhead on November 02, 2018, 10:24:38 pm
So yeah, the race is basically dead even. That's pretty clear at this point.


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: Skunk on November 02, 2018, 10:26:03 pm
()


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: Bagel23 on November 02, 2018, 10:30:31 pm
Lean R


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on November 03, 2018, 01:35:53 am


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: Hammy on November 03, 2018, 04:50:31 am
Big if true, probably wrong unfortunately.


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: АndriуValeriovich on November 03, 2018, 05:34:26 am


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on November 03, 2018, 11:03:25 am


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: Governor Peanut on November 03, 2018, 11:04:34 am

Please let her win


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: President Griffin on November 04, 2018, 10:23:22 am
Finally found the poll (linked in OP).

Some nuggets from it:

Quote
Abrams favorability: 45/37
Kemp favorability: 36/42

And have you already voted early this year, and if not, how likely are you to vote?

66 Already Voted
34 Very Likely To Vote

How do you think Donald Trump is doing as President? Excellent, good, only fair or poor?

Excellent 36
Good 10
Only Fair 5
Poor 48

How do you think Nathan Deal is doing as Governor? Excellent, good, only fair or poor?

Excellent 23
Good 32
Only Fair 21
Poor 15

They also polled downballot:

Quote
Lt Gov:
48 Sarah Riggs Amico (D)
46 Geoff Duncan (R)

Attorney General:
48 Charlie Bailey (D)
45 Chris Carr (R)

Secretary of State:
48 John Barrow (D)
42 Brad Raffensperger (R)

PSC 1:
45 Lindy Miller (D)
42 Chuck Eaton (R)

PSC 2:
44 Dawn Randolph (D)
41 Tricia Pridemore (R)


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 04, 2018, 10:33:08 am
Ugh, it's one of those Good/Fair polls.


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 04, 2018, 08:19:28 pm
Why isn't this poll mentioned in 538? Is there some methodological flaw that disqualifies it?


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: President Griffin on November 05, 2018, 02:16:27 am
Why isn't this poll mentioned in 538? Is there some methodological flaw that disqualifies it?

I only found it because I just so happened to Google over the past 24 hours new polls of Georgia, and at the time, the only reference was in a Slate article without linking to the poll. I just so happened to discover the full poll linked on Facebook, so it may be that this poll wasn't published/promoted enough to get visibility.


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: Badger on November 05, 2018, 04:47:26 am
Finally found the poll (linked in OP).

Some nuggets from it:

Quote
Abrams favorability: 45/37
Kemp favorability: 36/42

And have you already voted early this year, and if not, how likely are you to vote?

66 Already Voted
34 Very Likely To Vote

How do you think Donald Trump is doing as President? Excellent, good, only fair or poor?

Excellent 36
Good 10
Only Fair 5
Poor 48

How do you think Nathan Deal is doing as Governor? Excellent, good, only fair or poor?

Excellent 23
Good 32
Only Fair 21
Poor 15

They also polled downballot:

Quote
Lt Gov:
48 Sarah Riggs Amico (D)
46 Geoff Duncan (R)

Attorney General:
48 Charlie Bailey (D)
45 Chris Carr (R)

Secretary of State:
48 John Barrow (D)
42 Brad Raffensperger (R)

PSC 1:
45 Lindy Miller (D)
42 Chuck Eaton (R)

PSC 2:
44 Dawn Randolph (D)
41 Tricia Pridemore (R)

Are those down ballot races also subject to runoffs?

And:


But:

Big if true, probably wrong unfortunately.


Title: Re: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
Post by: President Griffin on November 05, 2018, 04:55:56 am
Are those down ballot races also subject to runoffs?

Yep - every race in Georgia at the state and local level (save for presidential elections, or municipal elections that use multi-seat/top # systems) is subject to a runoff if nobody garners 50% +1.