Talk Elections

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5bdd858aaa4a99c185e72f11/1541244300045/MOScout+Weekly+Poll+11.3.pdf

McCaskill and Hawley at 47% Each.

Galloway leads McDowell 49 to 38.

My final predictions:

Hawley 49 to McCaskill 47

Galloway 53 to McDowell 44.

and I promise next cycle I will broaden my horizons and be able to contribute more outside of Midwestern politics, specifically Missouri and Illinois... Thank you!

Yikes, terrible poll for Hawley. Say hello to majority leader Schumer if this is accurate.

What are you talking about? I am like for sure that Hawley will win at the end based on logic.

If McCaskill and Bredesen are tied at this point, they’re more likely than not to win on election day, and NV+AZ+TN-ND (although I could see Heitkamp winning if the wave is big enough) gets them to 51. That’s assuming that polling is accurate and not underestimating Republican strength, which we obviously don’t know.

I think he’s referring to the fact Hawley has lead in this poll

Last week's Remington poll had Hawley winning by four.
So yeah, a tie now isn't all that great news for him.

If Hawley can't even win this race then its time he calls it quits on his political career.

Do you agree with my final margins? Hawley 49 to 47 and Galloway 52 to 44?

Depends on what logic you're using. Logic would also tell you that Claire is the incumbent in a D-leaning year, so undecideds would more than likely break for her.

McCaskill looks to be getting a bounce at just the right time.

There was some pretty scathing reporting out of the Kansas City Star that Hawley has essentailly been MIA during his entire two years as AG.

And yet we have people here who unironically believe that Doug Jones is DOA in 2020.

Candidate quality in action lol. Central casting stiffs like Hawley are only electable when the enviorment favors their party.

Net gain of 4 for McCaskill since Remington's last poll in October.

It does seem that whatever 'Kavanaugh Bump' there was here has faded.

The Kavanaugh bump (which was real in Senate races, less so in the House), appears to be receding at the worst possible time for the GOP

I'd rather say that McCaskill's efforts defining Hawley as "Empty Suit" and "Carpetbeggar" are quite effiective while he is unable to counter these. McCaskill made herself immune to Mr Trump's appeal to the anti-ímmigration rhetorics by simply supporting him 100 % and delivering this message.

I am still not convinced that she will win in the end yet I acknolwedge her fighting instincts which seem to be intact. She reversed the worrisome trend of late October but it is unclear if this 11th hour effort will be enough. 

Mr Hawley does not appear to be a born fighter, rather "born with a silver foot in his mouth".

I do not know if this poll is accurate, but the trend of Delta=+4 % for Mrs McCaskill cetainly is real.

This one's gonna be close, and the trend is good for McCaskill. This might be the last race I make up my mind about in terms of my predictions. I think that if McCaskill does win, that's at least 50 seats for Democrats.

Remington underestimated Trump's margin in 2016

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Michigan

Undecideds will break for Hawley and they are likely overestimating McCaskill's performance...Hawley will win by +7

Again, can you even imagine if there were an open SC seat now and a less radioactive Republican nominee, and McCaskill had to answer for how she'd vote on the nominee? She'd be dead meat.

I wonder how much Hawley lying about pre-existing conditions is hurting him here. I know voters are dumb, but that lie was the most shameless thing I have heard this entire cycle.

Actually, it is true that Remington has a Democratic bias. According to FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, Remington has overestimated Democrats by an average of 1.1% relative to historical election results.

At least for their adjusted polls average, they're saying Remington is biased against Democrats to the tune of... 4.5 points. So they're saying this poll is McCaskill +4.5.

Not that I'm really putting much faith in their adjustments versus the simple average.

Nice! So much for McCaskill being DOA for the 87th time.

McCaskill winning by the skin of her teeth in a big Dem wave hardly bodes well for Jones in a state that is far more Republican, far less elastic, far more racially polarized, and during an unknown political climate when Trump is guaranteed to carry the state by at least 20 points simultaneously.

Jones is a far stronger incumbent than McCaskill (like, not even close), has better approval numbers, and the state isn’t as "inelastic" as you’re making it out to be (or else Jones wouldn’t be Senator right now or have similar approval ratings as Richard Shelby). Bottom line: Writing off a Democratic incumbent in a red state two years before the election is never a good idea, and rating it "Safe R" is downright ridiculous. Hawley is hardly an Akin tier candidate, and he’s still struggling badly in this race.

I dunno why people suddenly seem so optimistic about McCaskill. She could still easily lose... this poll only has it tied, she is not even ahead.

I agree with MT here. If Jones wasnt popular, like CO Senator Gardner, then it would make sense to write him off. But Jones is doing really well in AL, and the Rs in the state will, most likely, not make the best choice in the primary.

I say lean R, but it could easily go to Jones.

It's at least an improvement from where she was. But yeah. This still isn't her race to lose or anything.

Because the previous version of the poll had Hawley up 4. And FOX also showed a tie, so she's on a positive trajectory. I can't speak for anyone else, but it's nice to see she still has a good chance going into election day rather than being a significant underdog. Obviously she could easily still lose.

McCaskill will pull it out

The polls actually underestimated mcCaskill six years ago.
She will win by 1-3 %

IceSpear is right. Jones was only elected because of the pedophilia allegations against Roy Moore. Were it not for those allegations, he would have lost by at least 5-10 points, and possibly more. Jones is DOA in 2020, so long as the Republican running against him is not Roy Moore. That is part of the reason why he voted against Kavanaugh-because he understands that he has no chance, whatsoever, in winning reelection. Jones is a one-term Senator, and he will be the first to lose if he runs for reelection. He is by far the most vulnerable Senator of the next cycle, even more vulnerable than Gardner, and could very well be blanched.

If you believe Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Report BOTH, Republican & Democratic Campaign Polling have McCaskill down. Also, Hawley isn't Todd Akin.

"Of the five Democratic-held seats in Toss Up, U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri appears to be in the most danger of losing her seat to Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley. Both Republican and Democratic polling show her trailing Hawley, although the parties differ on how much. A Democratic-affiliated outside group has dropped mail promoting the conservative virtues of independent Craig O’Dear in an effort to siphon votes away from Hawley."

This is a perfect time for her to surge, here's hoping these numbers hold and Hawley doesn't win.