Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Scottholes 2.0 on November 03, 2018, 06:02:15 pm



Title: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on November 03, 2018, 06:02:15 pm
Fred Hubbell (D): 46 percent
Kim Reynolds (R): 44 percent
Jake Porter (L): 2 percent; 1 percent other
7 percent undecides

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/11/03/iowa-poll-governor-race-kim-reynolds-fred-hubbell-jake-porter-selzer-iowa-election-2018-medicaid/1871874002/


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
Post by: Councilor Zaybay on November 03, 2018, 06:05:59 pm
Well, I would say a tossup is appropriate, though I would give the edge to Hubbell.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
Post by: Scottholes 2.0 on November 03, 2018, 06:06:17 pm
Well, I would say a tossup is appropriate, though I would give the edge to Hubbell.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
Post by: New Frontier on November 03, 2018, 06:06:48 pm
Well, I would say a tossup is appropriate, though I would give the edge to Hubbell.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on November 03, 2018, 06:06:57 pm
This is the poll we were waiting for. At least I wasn't disappointed.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
Post by: Atlas Force on November 03, 2018, 06:11:37 pm
Well, I would say a tossup is appropriate, though I would give the edge to Hubbell.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
Post by: IceSpear on November 03, 2018, 06:12:00 pm
Nice!


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
Post by: Ebsy on November 03, 2018, 06:13:40 pm
So much for Iowa becoming a permanent red state as the GOP marches up the Mississippi River.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 03, 2018, 06:20:36 pm
So much for Iowa becoming a permanent red state as the GOP marches up the Mississippi River.

Democrats won the Governorships in Louisiana in 2003, Arkansas in 2006 and Missouri in 2008.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
Post by: OkThen on November 03, 2018, 06:21:40 pm
They also split it up by CD for anyone interested...

Hubbell +2 in CD1
Hubbell +8 in CD2
Hubbell +7 in CD3
Reynolds +9 in CD4


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: MycroftCZ on November 03, 2018, 06:22:03 pm
NICE


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Polarized MT Treasurer on November 03, 2018, 06:23:52 pm
Still a Toss-up. Bold, I know.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
Post by: Gass3268 on November 03, 2018, 06:24:32 pm
They also split it up by CD for anyone interested...

Hubbell +2 in CD1
Hubbell +8 in CD2
Hubbell +7 in CD3
Reynolds +9 in CD4


Not great for Young.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Xing on November 03, 2018, 06:24:42 pm
This is the same margin they found before. Toss-Up race is a Toss-Up, but I'll probably say Hubbell wins by about this margin or slightly less.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Anthony Davis is Awesome on November 03, 2018, 06:34:12 pm
Iowa is the bellwether, if Dems win it, there will be a wave


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
Post by: AudmanOut on November 03, 2018, 06:37:53 pm
Well, I would say a tossup is appropriate, though I would give the edge to Hubbell.
And also
So much for Iowa becoming a permanent red state as the GOP marches up the Mississippi River.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: libertpaulian on November 03, 2018, 06:40:56 pm
#RedWave, amirite?


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Mayor Steve Pearce on November 03, 2018, 06:42:17 pm
THIS IS NOT A DRILL

IT'S HAPPENING


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Alabama_Indy10 on November 03, 2018, 06:42:23 pm
Ehh.. I like Hubbell


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Polarized MT Treasurer on November 03, 2018, 06:46:25 pm
I mean, Iowa is still a swing-y state, especially in wave elections. Remember when Chet Culver lost by 10 in 2010? I have little doubt that Republicans are going to win this (and IA-01/IA-03) back in 2022.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on November 03, 2018, 06:48:00 pm
I donít see how Scott Walker survives if Reynolds is also going down

WaUkEShA WiLl SaVe WaLkER.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Gass3268 on November 03, 2018, 06:49:41 pm
I mean, Iowa is still a swing-y state, especially in wave elections. Remember when Chet Culver lost by 10 in 2010? I have little doubt that Republicans are going to win this (and IA-01/IA-03) back in 2022.

It depends on how IA-03 is redrawn after redistricting . It is possible that the district becomes just the Des Moines metro area, including Ames.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: wifikitten on November 03, 2018, 06:52:07 pm
Congratulations Governor Hubbell! I think this race being so low key has allowed for this to happen at the opportune time. 


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: libertpaulian on November 03, 2018, 06:56:43 pm
Sleeper race.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Polarized MT Treasurer on November 03, 2018, 07:07:51 pm
I mean, Iowa is still a swing-y state, especially in wave elections. Remember when Chet Culver lost by 10 in 2010? I have little doubt that Republicans are going to win this (and IA-01/IA-03) back in 2022.

Just like how Democrats are going to win back NH Gov after the 2016 fluke I guess

1) They probably will.
2) Not every midterm will be a Democratic wave from now on, especially if Dems have the trifecta in 2022 (likely). Now if Trump somehow wins reelection, Hubbell will probably cruise.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: yeah_93 on November 04, 2018, 04:45:26 am
Tossup, but I have a hard time seeing Reynolds winning if like every GOP Representative is in danger of losing.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Anthony Davis is Awesome on November 04, 2018, 04:48:21 am
This is bad for Trump, Iowa is the lone holdout state, that can help him achieve reelection, that is gone now, as well as WI.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: President Johnson on November 04, 2018, 06:07:09 am
Toss-up, but I think Hubell will win by around three to five points.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: SirWoodbury on November 04, 2018, 06:20:33 am
Tilt R


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Bagel23 on November 04, 2018, 03:17:43 pm
I believe this race is Strong Lean R


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on November 04, 2018, 03:18:46 pm
Strong Lean R

How can you look at a Selzer poll showing Hubbell ahead by 2 and say "Strong Lean R"?

(looks at username)

Nevermind.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Xing on November 04, 2018, 07:31:47 pm
I mean, Iowa is still a swing-y state, especially in wave elections. Remember when Chet Culver lost by 10 in 2010? I have little doubt that Republicans are going to win this (and IA-01/IA-03) back in 2022.

If it's a Democratic midterm, sure, but if Trump is still president, there's a good chance Democrats hold all of those races.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: VirginiŠ on November 04, 2018, 08:58:03 pm
I mean, Iowa is still a swing-y state, especially in wave elections. Remember when Chet Culver lost by 10 in 2010? I have little doubt that Republicans are going to win this (and IA-01/IA-03) back in 2022.

If it's a Democratic midterm, sure, but if Trump is still president, there's a good chance Democrats hold all of those races.

I don't know who or when, but eventually we're going to get another president that doesn't instantly piss more than half the country off, and we'll get a more neutral midterm that isn't particularly exciting. What I do know is that the generation(s) largely driving this toxic political environment are dying off and the 2020s is exactly the time where they will be marginalized for the first time since they moved beyond where Millennials are now.

Point being that I think it's a uniquely bad time to try and forecast midterms 4 or more years from now, potentially under an administration from the current opposition. The only instance where I think it would be more than appropriate is under a 2nd-term Trump, given who we know the man to be (and how set in his volatile ways he is), the nature of his presidency and the tendency for 6-year itches to be rather brutal, even for presidents who were actually somewhat popular during their first term.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: jrk26 on November 04, 2018, 09:10:47 pm
Strong Lean R

How can you look at a Selzer poll showing Hubbell ahead by 2 and say "Strong Lean R"?

(looks at username)

Nevermind.

He suffers from a disease known as idiocy.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Storr on November 04, 2018, 09:12:38 pm
Strong Lean R

How can you look at a Selzer poll showing Hubbell ahead by 2 and say "Strong Lean R"?

(looks at username)

Nevermind.

Remember, he isn't even old enough to vote.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Registar: Hubbell +2
Post by: Kodak on November 04, 2018, 09:17:51 pm
So much for Iowa becoming a permanent red state as the GOP marches up the Mississippi River.

There's a small chance the Democrats will control all but one of the Mississippi River governorships by 2021, creating the reverse of the last 2 years.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Polarized MT Treasurer on November 04, 2018, 09:31:00 pm
I mean, Iowa is still a swing-y state, especially in wave elections. Remember when Chet Culver lost by 10 in 2010? I have little doubt that Republicans are going to win this (and IA-01/IA-03) back in 2022.

If it's a Democratic midterm, sure, but if Trump is still president, there's a good chance Democrats hold all of those races.

Oh of course, but I donít think Trump will be president in 2022 if Republicans lose all of those races this year.


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: libertpaulian on November 04, 2018, 09:42:35 pm
I mean, Iowa is still a swing-y state, especially in wave elections. Remember when Chet Culver lost by 10 in 2010? I have little doubt that Republicans are going to win this (and IA-01/IA-03) back in 2022.

If it's a Democratic midterm, sure, but if Trump is still president, there's a good chance Democrats hold all of those races.

Oh of course, but I donít think Trump will be president in 2022 if Republicans lose all of those races this year.
Just like how Obama wasn't going to be President anymore because the GOP swept the governor races, US House, and state legislative races in 2010...


Title: Re: IA Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Post by: Bagel23 on December 17, 2018, 09:59:09 am
Strong Lean R

How can you look at a Selzer poll showing Hubbell ahead by 2 and say "Strong Lean R"?

(looks at username)

Nevermind.

Strong Lean R

How can you look at a Selzer poll showing Hubbell ahead by 2 and say "Strong Lean R"?

(looks at username)

Nevermind.

He suffers from a disease known as idiocy.

Strong Lean R

How can you look at a Selzer poll showing Hubbell ahead by 2 and say "Strong Lean R"?

(looks at username)

Nevermind.

Remember, he isn't even old enough to vote.

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Img
) (https://imgflip.com/i/2p666j)