Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: LimoLiberal on November 04, 2018, 06:59:20 pm



Title: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 04, 2018, 06:59:20 pm
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Lg-PhEXFxVcl16FfQdn0BHgi5i38r8ZS/view

Kemp (R) - 52
Abrams (D) - 40

LMAO


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Gass3268 on November 04, 2018, 07:00:07 pm
At least they're not herding...


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on November 04, 2018, 07:00:08 pm
LMAO. Can't wait for this to be off by at least 10 points.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: DaWN on November 04, 2018, 07:00:26 pm
I definitely regret using this on those polls earlier because this deserves it more, but who says I'm limited to one a day?

()


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Lourdes on November 04, 2018, 07:02:04 pm
Safe R confirmed


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Ebsy on November 04, 2018, 07:03:17 pm
Just making their numbers up at this point.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Young Conservative on November 04, 2018, 07:04:22 pm
Lol I don't think this is true but it would be hilarious if it was, just to see the reactions.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 04, 2018, 07:11:51 pm


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Impeachment Inquiry on November 04, 2018, 07:13:32 pm
The crosstabs have an electorate that is 34% Black, 55% White electorate which in reality would mean a loss for a Republican.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Gass3268 on November 04, 2018, 07:14:54 pm
The crosstabs have an electorate that is 34% Black, 55% White electorate which in reality would mean a loss for a Republican.

Yeah, I don't know how on God's green earth they got +12 from that electorate.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Storr on November 04, 2018, 07:15:21 pm
This has Trump approval at 53-44...


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Special K on November 04, 2018, 07:20:04 pm
Maybe this is the planned result from Secretary Kemp's office, after the vote tampering.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 04, 2018, 07:21:03 pm
The crosstabs have an electorate that is 34% Black, 55% White electorate which in reality would mean a loss for a Republican.

Yeah, I don't know how on God's green earth they got +12 from that electorate.

Obviously Kemp will get 100% of the white vote.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on November 04, 2018, 07:24:18 pm
The crosstabs have an electorate that is 34% Black, 55% White electorate which in reality would mean a loss for a Republican.

Yeah, I don't know how on God's green earth they got +12 from that electorate.

They have Abrams winning only 18% of white voters (Abrams will almost certainly get over 20%), and only 77% of black voters (I don't need to explain how ridiculous this is)


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Xing on November 04, 2018, 07:28:25 pm
But they were right about Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 (it doesn't matter what their other polls in 2016 were) so that means that they're the gold standard and every poll they churn out is gold. :)


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Georgia Is A Swing State on November 04, 2018, 07:34:40 pm
If the electorate was 55/34 white/black that would be a cakewalk for Abrams. This poll is trash.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Senator Peanut on November 04, 2018, 07:39:59 pm
What in the actual heck is this abherration of a poll


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: North Fulton Swing on November 04, 2018, 07:42:34 pm
Of course, the scumbags on RCP placed this on their joke RCP average immediately.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 04, 2018, 07:44:03 pm
Only 66% of African Americans(!!!!!!!!!!), 51% of Hispanics, and 17.5% of whites are voting for Abrams (excluding leaners). Meanwhile, Kemp is winning 76% of whites before leaners are included.

Kemp is also winning women by 20 pts...into the trash.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Mondale on November 04, 2018, 07:45:27 pm
"Poll commissioned by the Klu Klux Klan of Georgia"


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Jeff Sessions Hack on November 04, 2018, 07:47:11 pm
Lol I don't think this is true but it would be hilarious if it was, just to see the reactions.

Yeah he definitely isn't up by 12, but I wouldn't be shocked if he wins outright on ED.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Joshua on November 04, 2018, 07:55:57 pm
Wow, junk poll!


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 04, 2018, 08:04:39 pm
But Atlas told me Trafalgar was the Gold Standard because of MUH 2016!

Anyway, this is obviously a junk pro R outlier that should be dismissed. Now Atlas needs to learn how to dismiss junk pro D outliers as well rather than cherrypicking whatever tells them what they want to hear. A big ask, I know.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 04, 2018, 08:07:34 pm
What the s***!? I guess Oprah canvassing for Abrams backfired in a big way!


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 04, 2018, 08:09:22 pm
Just making their numbers up at this point.

I feel like any amateur could make up better numbers though. Like if they made it Kemp +6 or something at least it would've been semi believable.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Goodbye on November 04, 2018, 09:39:30 pm
They had a poll a while back which had Donnelly+12. Clearly that's not gonna happen.

FAKE NEWS!


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Hammy on November 04, 2018, 09:41:45 pm
Maybe this is the planned result from Secretary Kemp's office, after the vote tampering.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Ronnie on November 04, 2018, 09:55:26 pm
The crosstabs have an electorate that is 34% Black, 55% White electorate which in reality would mean a loss for a Republican.

Yeah, I don't know how on God's green earth they got +12 from that electorate.

They must have polled Herman Cain twelve times.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on November 04, 2018, 10:51:18 pm
But Atlas told me Trafalgar was the Gold Standard because of MUH 2016!

Anyway, this is obviously a junk pro R outlier that should be dismissed. Now Atlas needs to learn how to dismiss junk pro D outliers as well rather than cherrypicking whatever tells them what they want to hear. A big ask, I know.

sees gravis poll that has Stacey Abrams ahead by 9- YAY WERE GOING TO WIN

Trafalgr Kemp + 12- THROW IT IN THE TRASH!


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Bagel23 on November 05, 2018, 12:49:44 am
Finally, we now got a poll that looks right! Strong Lean R.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Ses on November 05, 2018, 01:05:36 am
As I suspected, the bad pollsters are all dumping over the weekend.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: President Griffin on November 05, 2018, 02:39:37 am
Of course 538 adds this GARBAGE POLL to its database, but doesn't touch the Abrams +4 poll that has impeccable crosstabs and believable support levels. ::)


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2018, 12:32:29 pm
What ... the ... F**k ?

I understand that you could theoretically get a poll result like this if you have a flawed sample, but it should be even clear to them that this is a total joke. So why are they still releasing it to the public ?


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: Hammy on November 05, 2018, 04:33:47 pm
Of course 538 adds this GARBAGE POLL to its database, but doesn't touch the Abrams +4 poll that has impeccable crosstabs and believable support levels. ::)

538 (and really all the pundit sites) lost all credibility with me after 2016 and seeing them mentioned on Atlas is the only time they even cross my mind anymore.


Title: Re: GA-Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Post by: President Griffin on November 11, 2018, 06:49:10 am
"The Gold Standard"!