Talk Elections

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2018_fall_nhelec110418.pdf

Sununu (R) - 46
Kelly (D) - 46

GET IN HERE, INDYREP

The commencement of the year of the angry white woman.

Wow

I swear if indyrep ends up being right this world is a very screwed up place

Time load up on Predictit shares

I've had a hunch for months that if the blue wave was big enough, Sununu and Scott might go down or at least be in tight races. Seems like I was at least half right.

Gov elect Kelly, and don't sleep on VT, either, it could go to state assembly at Scott 49/44

NH just doesn't like electing men in statewide general elections, when there is a female option. This isn't even a "we like Democrats" thing - see Ayotte trouncing Hodes in 2010.

Oh my god.

This can't be real. I mean it's UNH, but usually they're dead-on on the last poll of the race.

I can't believe this is happening.

UNH is typically not the best pollster, but still "I WANT TO BELIEVE!"

New Hampshire returning to its sexist roots.

Isn't the same pollster that had Van Ostern up by double digits at this time in 2016?

#Inb4IndyRep

Yes, the angry NH Women will do it!

Ostern +11

:|

Just like WI, Cook and Sabato missed the momentum of the Democrat. They should have changed the rating, other than OK

poll shows Trump +1 in Pennsylvania: LOL LIKE THAT WILL EVER HAPPEN OUTLIER OUTLIER OUTLIER

poll shows tied New Hampshire Governor race: GUARANTEED DEMOCRAT WIN

Oh please let this happen.

Oh kek here we go

LMAO!

But Politician and the rest of Atlas told me that Sununu was guaranteed to win by 25+ points because of MUH April polls!

You all need to bow down and kiss MT Treasurer's ring if Kelly ends up winning.

Yes, they're a junk pollster. But Atlas had zero problem with them when they had Sununu up double digits, so it's not fair to dismiss them now. ;)

Governor (since 2012):
Hassan +4 (+4)
Hassan +9 (+12)

Senate (since 2012):
Shaheen +2 (+3)
Hassan +4 (0)

It's actually happening

they had Van Ostern up by 11 though

My kingdom for a "It's Happening" Gif with an angry woman superimposed over whathisface.

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Big if true.

ARG: Sununu +5 (had Sununu +4 in 2016)
Atlas: JUNK POLL! ARG sucks even though their last poll was only 2 points off! I'll believe UNH instead which still has Sununu up double digits even though they had Van Ostern up 11 and were 13 points off!

UNH: Tie (had Van Ostern up 11)
Atlas: JUNK POLL! UNH sucks! They had Van Ostern up 11!

IndyRep might be the god of NH politics if this actually happens.

Live look at Hollis, New Hampshire:

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I think Sununus time is over, thanks to Shaheen who defeated John Sununu handily.

Wow, congrats, MT Treasurer! Sununu could still win, but the trendline isn't good for him. Not sure what to predict for this race now, it probably has to be considered a Toss-Up, since we really don't have any other very recent polls to go by.

Atlas right now (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRWbIoIR04c)

I will never doubt indyrep on NH ever again if Kelly actually wins this, and she actually just might.

If Sununu wins during a dem wave you cannot call NH a Safe D state.

That's not how this works. He can and will no matter how much you beg him to stop.

Also that's not exactly true because Hogan and Baker are on track to win and win bigly in what are unambiguously safe blue states. MA is more understandable given its history of electing Republicans as govs but Maryland has no such excuse. They are still safe D states in every other regard though.

If Kelly wins IndyRep will be absolutely insufferable in his gloating and he will have 100% have earned it

Ha, Safe R

If Kelly can pull off a win in NH then Dems could've absolutely taken MD & MA even VT with better candidates.

Sue Minter and Rashurn Baker could have won. Jealous was too liberal.

NH is, let’s just say, a special case.

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It's UNH. Tomorrow they may release a poll which shows Sununu up by double digits.

I'm gonna stick to my lean R rating, but I'm kinda angry we didn't get more polling for this race.

UNH is crap but if this happens, I’m moving right to TX after I graduate next month

N U T

Ayotte barely lost to Hassan, so races tighten as election nears in NH

It's a blue wave, the 272 freiwal states Iowa, NH, IL, WI, CO, NM,vNV, WI and MI, all except MD and VT are leaning Dem😀

Wow. Didn't see this poll. I'm a little skeptical since it's UNH poll. Last time Van Ostern was up and Sununu won by two, but this is interesting... She could pull it off tomorrow night

NH is part of the 272 freiwal that Dems have solidified. If Sue Minter and Rashurn Baker were on the ballot, they could of won as well

...you want to be represented in the Senate by Beto?

LOL, this would certainly be your biggest coup yet. ;)

Oh yes, I forgot:

2010: Lynch +9 (Lynch +8)

Baker would not lose regardless of how big the wave is.

If Kelly pulls this off, IndyRep is officially our god of New Hampshire elections. He'll need to keep his Democratic New Hampshire avatar to transcend into his newly divine form.

From the ground it sounds like this is a D surge...

They waaaaaay oversampled Democrats in this poll compared to their earlier ones as well.

I hope Chris ends up having to look for a Sununew job. Please let us have two Governor Kellys- Laura and Molly!

Dems oversampled, but his deficit among women voters is quite large...

I honestly don't know how to read this one. Part of me thinks he wins -- narrowly but I can also see her squeaking by.

Party ID and registration are two dramatically different things. Registration is still largely independent, and it's only natural some of those indies "magically" identify with wherever the winds of change blow.

True. Where do you put the race?

Hopefully you’re greeted by Senator Beto

I've changed it from Safe to Likely R.

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Congrats Gov Sununu=D

Junk poll!

Yes, I was completely wrong about this race, and there’s no way to spin this. The only thing I will say is that even though NH is a state that will certainly elect liberal to moderate Republican governors at times, I don’t expect Sununu's success to be replicated at the federal level if he decides to run against Jeanne Shaheen. Senate races are a lot more partisan than gubernatorial elections, and let’s not forget that NH Republicans were wiped off the face of the earth in virtually every other race in the state (they lost both congressional districts in a landslide, lost the Executive Council, the State Senate, and the NH House). It’s hardly a coincidence that Chris Sununu did A LOT worse than Baker, Scott, and even Hogan(!) yesterday despite running in a more competitive state, and it also shows you just how high the Democratic floor in NH is. So while I agree that NH is more winnable for Republicans than CO/NV/VA, I wouldn’t go as far as to rate it a "Toss-up" for 2020. Safe D? Certainly not, but I’d say it’s closer to Lean or maybe Likely D (depending on the environment and the Democratic candidate) than Toss-up.

Sununu will lose in 2020, hopefully Pappas runs against him

My guess is he runs for Senate and loses