Title: 2020 prediction Post by: pops on November 13, 2018, 03:12:31 PM discuss
() Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: Xeuma on November 13, 2018, 03:42:18 PM Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado.
Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: pops on November 13, 2018, 03:46:37 PM Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado. Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: mileslunn on November 13, 2018, 03:54:48 PM Way too early to make predictions, but if the midterm results were to play out nationally, Democrats would flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Iowa and Arizona would be nail biters while not enough information say how North Carolina would go. Ohio would stay GOP, while Florida and Georgia would be narrow GOP wins. At this point I see the following.
Solid GOP Alaska Idaho Utah Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Nebraska (4 of 5) Kansas Oklahoma Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Indiana Kentucky Tennessee Mississippi Alabama West Virginia South Carolina Solid Democrat Washington Oregon California Hawaii New Mexico Illinois Maine (1 of 4) Vermont Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New York New Jersey Maryland Delaware DC Swing see comments beside each Clinton swing Nevada - Toss up Colorado - Lean D, Democrats must win this while Trump can win without winnning here Minnesota - Toss up Maine (statewide) - Toss up, slight edge for Democrats New Hampshire - Toss up Virginia - Lean D, Democrats must win here, while Trump can win without it. Trump Swing states Arizona - Toss up, depends heavily on turnout Nebraska 2 - Toss up Texas - Likely R, slight chance of Democrat pick up but only if a wave election similar to 2008. Iowa - Toss up but slight R lean, can see Democrats winning without Iowa, cannot see GOP winning without it. Wisconsin - Toss up, of the three Blue Wall states Clinton lost, this is probably the one most likely to stay GOP, but still good chance of flipping. Michigan - Toss up - Democrats must pick this up to win, GOP can still win without it, but narrows the path. Ohio - Lean R, An asset for Democrats to win but can without it, GOP must win here as no path for them without Ohio. Maine 2 - Toss up, slight R lean, but with a high number of on the fence voters could go either way. Pennsylvania - Toss up - If the Democrats flip any states, this will likely be the first. GOP can win without Pennsylvania although narrows path, Democrats must win here. North Carolina - Toss up - Both can win without North Carolina but GOP has a much tougher path without it than Democrats do. Georgia - Lean R - Democrats don't need to win here, just a bonus whereas GOP must win here to win nationally. Florida - Toss up - highly likely it votes for the winner. Both parties have paths without Florida but pretty much have to run the table in all other swing states meaning 90% chance it backs the winner. Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: mileslunn on November 13, 2018, 03:55:43 PM Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado. Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota Connecticut is not going for Trump. Minnesota might it depends on the swings. Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two. Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: pops on November 13, 2018, 03:56:54 PM Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado. Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota Connecticut is not going for Trump. Minnesota might it depends on the swings. Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two. Connecticut will go to Trump very narrowly off of John Kasich splitting the Democrat vote and a 4% improvement for Trump there. Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: mileslunn on November 13, 2018, 03:59:42 PM Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado. Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota Connecticut is not going for Trump. Minnesota might it depends on the swings. Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two. Connecticut will go to Trump very narrowly off of John Kasich splitting the Democrat vote and a 4% improvement for Trump there. That assumes Kasich runs as an independent. 4% improvement on Trump seems more like wishful thinking than reality. It was close at the governor race for the same reason Democrats won Kansas. If you look at the senate and congressional races not even close and horrible demographics for Trump GOP. Now if Kasich was GOP leader, agree Connecticut would be winneable. Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 13, 2018, 04:51:20 PM Connecticut and Colorado would be my only objections. Besides that I think its a possible map but not a likely one.
Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: bagelman on November 13, 2018, 11:31:20 PM Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado. Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota Connecticut is not going for Trump. Minnesota might it depends on the swings. Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two. Connecticut will go to Trump very narrowly off of John Kasich splitting the Democrat vote and a 4% improvement for Trump there. So who's the Democratic nominee? Illar Omar? Lupe Valdez? Mark Zuckerberg? You're going to say it's Bernie Sanders aren't you. 🤦♂️ Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: pops on November 14, 2018, 12:10:12 AM Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado. Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota Connecticut is not going for Trump. Minnesota might it depends on the swings. Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two. Connecticut will go to Trump very narrowly off of John Kasich splitting the Democrat vote and a 4% improvement for Trump there. So who's the Democratic nominee? Illar Omar? Lupe Valdez? Mark Zuckerberg? You're going to say it's Bernie Sanders aren't you. 🤦♂️ Joe Biden Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: bagelman on November 14, 2018, 03:05:05 PM Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado. Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota Connecticut is not going for Trump. Minnesota might it depends on the swings. Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two. Connecticut will go to Trump very narrowly off of John Kasich splitting the Democrat vote and a 4% improvement for Trump there. So who's the Democratic nominee? Illar Omar? Lupe Valdez? Mark Zuckerberg? You're going to say it's Bernie Sanders aren't you. 🤦♂️ Joe Biden I do think that Biden is overrated but you still have Kasich wrong, CT Republicans will vote for him. It's wildly optimistic for Trump to say he could win CT and, at this rate, CO. Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 14, 2018, 08:41:33 PM ()
279 194 65 IND Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: mileslunn on November 14, 2018, 09:01:37 PM () 279 194 65 IND Doubt any independents will win any electoral votes. Do you mean rather states where it is too close to call? Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 14, 2018, 09:11:24 PM ()
Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: TrumpBritt24 on November 16, 2018, 12:04:42 PM President Trump is, and always has been, a Democrat at heart. His only goal is to win. I see him doing something like legalizing marijuana nationwide or pulling troops in from the Middle East right before election night to flip Nevada and Colorado. New Hampshire and 3/4 of Maine would definitely vote for him if he throws a bone to the minarchists like that. Minnesota depends on the Democrats' candidate, though if they're running Elizabeth Warren or some other Midwesterner to try and take back the Great Lakes as I suspect they are, probably not. Probably too early for Connecticut to flip. The whole legalizing marijuana/pulling the troops thing is actually quite a dark horse discussion going on in Trump supporter circles at the moment. Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: 😥 on November 25, 2018, 09:21:51 AM ()
Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: Cashew on November 25, 2018, 10:50:28 PM () Florida, the land of perpetual disappointment... Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 26, 2018, 12:26:22 PM ()
Biden can win OH and IA and AZ and so can Booker with Tim Ryan Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: MR DARK BRANDON on December 01, 2018, 06:34:38 PM Aren’t you going to learn something from your last 10 predictions?
Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: pops on December 01, 2018, 09:24:14 PM Updated prediction:
() Trump (R) - 42.4% (+0.6) Biden (D) - 41.8% Kasich (IND) - 13.6% Weld (L) - 1.3% Baraka (G) - 0.4% Others - 0.6% States with a less than 10% margin, from largest Dem margin to largest GOP margin New Mexico New Jersey Delaware Oregon Virginia Maine Minnesota --- Connecticut New Hampshire Florida Nevada Michigan Pennsylvania Colorado Wisconsin Ohio Texas Iowa Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: President Phil Scott on December 02, 2018, 05:01:26 PM Updated prediction: () Trump (R) - 42.4% (+0.6) Biden (D) - 41.8% Kasich (IND) - 13.6% Weld (L) - 1.3% Baraka (G) - 0.4% Others - 0.6% States with a less than 10% margin, from largest Dem margin to largest GOP margin New Mexico New Jersey Delaware Oregon Virginia Maine Minnesota --- Connecticut New Hampshire Florida Nevada Michigan Pennsylvania Colorado Wisconsin Ohio Texas Iowa Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on December 12, 2018, 03:23:55 PM Aren’t you going to learn something from your last 10 predictions? Dems will win 279 electors, if nothing else, but Dems have Congressional candidates in House and Senate that can allow them to win more. Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: Farmlands on December 13, 2018, 09:21:04 AM At the risk of looking like a complete dumbass by election night in 2020, this is my prediction for 2020, with no tossups because I don't like them.
() Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: Cashew on June 10, 2019, 12:15:57 AM ()
Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nebraska 2nd, North Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin are all won by Trump by a few thousand votes, and the popular vote is 50.5% Democratic nominee and 46.5% Trump. Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: One Term Floridian on June 10, 2019, 12:29:10 AM () Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nebraska 2nd, North Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin are all won by Trump by a few thousand votes, and the popular vote is 50.5% Democratic nominee and 46.5% Trump. A national nightmare ensues.. Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on June 10, 2019, 02:09:15 PM All polls are showing IA and OH and FL are battlegrounds, not Dems losing WI()
Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: President Johnson on June 12, 2019, 02:25:29 PM Very early prediction that could change:
() ✓ Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-CA): 335 EV. (51.66%) President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 203 EV. (46.73%) Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: LoneStarDem on June 12, 2019, 03:36:29 PM Very early prediction that could change: () ✓ Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-CA): 335 EV. (51.66%) President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 203 EV. (46.73%) How did you get that map to work like that ? Title: Re: 2020 prediction Post by: Cokeland Saxton on June 24, 2019, 01:47:29 AM Trump won't take Minnesota, Nevada, or Colorado. Wisconsin is a tossup, Pennsylvania and Florida could go anywhere as well, same with Michigan.
Title: Election 2020 Post by: Archon on October 26, 2019, 03:48:45 PM Who do you think will win 2020 and how does your election prediction map look like?
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