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Election Archive => 2018 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: BundouYMB on November 25, 2018, 03:02:48 pm



Title: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: BundouYMB on November 25, 2018, 03:02:48 pm
Hyde-Smith 54%
Espy 44%
Undecided 1%

Link: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2018/11/25/rrh-elections-mississippi-senate-runoff-poll-cindy-hyde-smith-r-leads-mike-espy-d-54-44/


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: Polarized MT Treasurer on November 25, 2018, 03:05:49 pm
I think it will be closer to Hyde-Smith +5, but still reassuring, even though this kind of racially polarized voting is very unfortunate.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: BundouYMB on November 25, 2018, 03:05:57 pm
Before the hot takes arrive: the fact a Democrat can achieve 44+% in a midterm runoff election in MS with unexceptional black turnout is actually very encouraging to me. If there was some way to juice black turnout to match their share of the population then MS could well be a swing state, which is crazy to think about.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁 on November 25, 2018, 03:08:09 pm
Trump won MS by 18 points, so if it is a 10 point margin in the end, that will not be a bad improvement in notoriously inelastic MS.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on November 25, 2018, 03:12:36 pm
Yeah, +10 margin seems correct.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on November 25, 2018, 03:39:19 pm
The momentum is clearly in Espy's favor, the Jungle Primary vote was 58% for Republicans and 42% for Democrats, +16 R, this poll is at just +10 R, a six point drop. However, it's likely too little too late with the election just two days away.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: Polarized MT Treasurer on November 25, 2018, 03:44:13 pm
The momentum is clearly in Espy's favor, the Jungle Primary vote was 58% for Republicans and 42% for Democrats, +16 R, this poll is at just +10 R, a six point drop. However, it's likely too little too late with the election just two days away.

Not sure if there’s really any "momentum" here, Espy was always going to do a lot better in the runoff than on Nov. 6.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: The Chad Ralph Northam on November 25, 2018, 03:58:47 pm
Trump won MS by 18 points, so if it is a 10 point margin in the end, that will not be a bad improvement in notoriously inelastic MS.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: IceSpear on November 25, 2018, 05:06:45 pm
The momentum is clearly in Espy's favor, the Jungle Primary vote was 58% for Republicans and 42% for Democrats, +16 R, this poll is at just +10 R, a six point drop. However, it's likely too little too late with the election just two days away.

Not sure if there’s really any "momentum" here, Espy was always going to do a lot better in the runoff than on Nov. 6.

Yep, if anything this looks like turnout differentials.

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Still, -10 is a pretty damn good result for a Democrat in Mississippi, especially when the Democrat is black and going against an incumbent Senator. -10 was what popular white former governor Unbeatable Titan Ronnie Musgrove got with sky high black turnout thanks to Obama in 2008. And Wicker just won by 19 points a few weeks ago.

But yeah, obviously there is zero chance Espy wins, as was true from the very beginning and never changed. The only curiosity will be to see if it is a single digit loss or a double digit loss.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on November 25, 2018, 05:59:34 pm
Yeah, it would be pretty impressive for Espy to come within single digits, but he's not going to win.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 25, 2018, 06:01:20 pm
Interesting to see McDaniel supporters at 100% for Hyde-Smith. Obviously they're the most conservative, but I thought there might be a little bit of bitterness against her.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: IceSpear on November 25, 2018, 06:13:20 pm
Interesting to see McDaniel supporters at 100% for Hyde-Smith. Obviously they're the most conservative, but I thought there might be a little bit of bitterness against her.

Well, if this poll is accurate, a small chunk of them are staying home. He got 16% on election day but is at 12% now.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: SnowLabrador on November 25, 2018, 06:45:02 pm
Well, I'm not really that surprised. It will probably be between 55-45 and 60-40 in favor of Hyde-Smith in the end.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 25, 2018, 06:47:02 pm
I think Hyde-Smith is going to win by more than ten.

There are enough people who didn't vote on Election Day, who will back Hyde-Smith because they find the concept of a Black Man representing their state a mortal sin.

Hyde-Smith by at least twenty.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: Comrade Funk on November 25, 2018, 06:48:08 pm
Many White Mississippians prefer being 50th in categories ranging from life expectancy to Per Capita GDP if it means Black Mississippians are there with them.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: Jeppe on November 25, 2018, 07:17:41 pm
Interesting to see McDaniel supporters at 100% for Hyde-Smith. Obviously they're the most conservative, but I thought there might be a little bit of bitterness against her.

McDaniel had the most racist supporters, so I'm not at all surprised that they're not defecting to a black Democrat.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: Anthony Davis is Awesome on November 25, 2018, 07:22:53 pm
Espy isn't a national figure like Gillum or Abrams, and MS is pro Trump


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: BundouYMB on November 25, 2018, 09:21:39 pm
The momentum is clearly in Espy's favor, the Jungle Primary vote was 58% for Republicans and 42% for Democrats, +16 R, this poll is at just +10 R, a six point drop. However, it's likely too little too late with the election just two days away.

Not sure if there’s really any "momentum" here, Espy was always going to do a lot better in the runoff than on Nov. 6.

Yep, if anything this looks like turnout differentials.

(
Img
)

Still, -10 is a pretty damn good result for a Democrat in Mississippi, especially when the Democrat is black and going against an incumbent Senator. -10 was what popular white former governor Unbeatable Titan Ronnie Musgrove got with sky high black turnout thanks to Obama in 2008. And Wicker just won by 19 points a few weeks ago.

But yeah, obviously there is zero chance Espy wins, as was true from the very beginning and never changed. The only curiosity will be to see if it is a single digit loss or a double digit loss.

That "turnout differential" is really just a less-than-usual turnout advantage for Republicans, rather than a turnout advantage for Democrats. This poll still only has a 32% black electorate. Blacks are 38% of Mississippi's population. There's a lot more potential upside there for Democrats in the future.

My takeaway, if Hyde-Smith really does win by 10~, will be that while a Democrat winning a Senate seat in MS is probably impossible under normal circumstances in 2018 it could happen not too far in the future. And I think the gubernatorial race next year will be very competitive.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: History505 on November 25, 2018, 10:03:13 pm
This margin looks to be what would be expected given it's Mississippi.


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: UncleSam on November 25, 2018, 10:05:44 pm
Not strictly accurate to list this as (R) in that it’s not an internal, so I wouldn’t expect this to be biased - it was going to be released regardless of the result.

I think about 55-45 is the most likely outcome so given this poll verified my personal assumptions I will obviously treat it as gospel :P


Title: Re: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
Post by: Monarch on November 26, 2018, 08:48:36 am
Honestly this is about what I expected going into this race. She's a significant favorite and I'll be shocked if Espy gets it under 10 points.

Hyde-Smith by 9 to 15 imo.