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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election Predictions => Topic started by: UWS on November 29, 2018, 09:06:00 am



Title: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: UWS on November 29, 2018, 09:06:00 am
Even though most of the attention is now focused on the 2020 presidential election, there will first be such kind of test for both parties with the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

What are your predictons for the 2019 gubernatorial elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_States_gubernatorial_elections


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Politician on November 29, 2018, 10:42:34 am
()

KY could really go either way due to Bevin's unpopularity but the partisanship of the state makes me think he'll narrowly hold on. Edwards should be fine in LA, unless Kennedy runs. MS is a pure tossup, but the weakness of the potential GOP nominees and the close Special election results make me think its a Democratic pickup.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL/GA/ME/MN/NC/WI on November 29, 2018, 12:16:14 pm
Usual words of caution about how early it is apply.

KY: Safe R, Bevin wins by 10-15%.
LA: Lean D, Edwards wins by 4-6%
MS: Toss-Up, the Republican wins by 2-5%


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: New York Dude on November 29, 2018, 05:33:37 pm
Kentucky: Bevin +9 (political trends since 2015 counterbalancing his unpopularity and the more Democratic environment)
Louisiana: R +8 if Kennedy runs, a near-perfect tie if the Republican nominee is anyone else.
Mississippi: R+2


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on December 04, 2018, 05:09:29 pm
Beasher wins 51-49 in KY
JBE wins 51-49 avoid runoff in LA

Reeves wins 55-45 in MS

()

2019-2020


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Jon Tester on December 06, 2018, 05:55:57 pm
Ky: Bevin by 13

Ms: Hood by 1

La: Edwards by 5


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: АndriуValeriovich on December 10, 2018, 09:13:12 am
KY: Bevin +2-4
LA: Bel Edwards +10-15 (first round)
MS: Hood +1-3


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on December 12, 2018, 03:20:18 pm
MS is the most GOP nation at large, and R's should be able to win that, the very least


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: smoltchanov on December 17, 2018, 09:44:53 am
MS is the most GOP nation at large, and R's should be able to win that, the very least

Surely no. Wyoming is much more Republican, for example. And not only Wyoming. Now, probably, even West Virginia is more Republican.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Monarch on December 17, 2018, 06:19:22 pm
Dems win Louisiana comfortably, lose Kentucky narrowly, and lose Mississippi by about 5 to 10.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: brucejoel99 on December 23, 2018, 08:11:36 am
KY: Bevin +2-4
LA: Bel Edwards +4-6
MS: Hood +1-3


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Governor Peanut on December 23, 2018, 11:55:38 am
KY: Strong Likely R, not Safe because nothing's Safe this far out, but close to it.

LA: Lean D, could move to Likely.

MS: Tossup, I'd say Hood pulls it out.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: smoltchanov on December 25, 2018, 04:26:15 am
Right now: (i stress these words as strongly as possible)

KY: Likely R
LA: Lean D
MS: Tilt R


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Tender Branson on December 25, 2018, 04:33:38 am
Zell am See mayor & city council (March 2019): Strong ÷VP

EU election (May 2019): Strong ÷VP

Vorarlberg state election (September 2019): Strong ÷VP


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Pericles on December 26, 2018, 03:13:22 am
LA-Bel Edwards +2
MS-Reeves +4
KY-Bevin +8



Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: 538Electoral on December 26, 2018, 05:23:10 am
Kentucky and Mississippi both Lean R, Louisiana I think is Lean D at the moment.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: pops on December 26, 2018, 06:53:09 pm
MS R+8
KY R+7
LA R+3

But this could change easily.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Del Tachi on December 27, 2018, 03:25:42 pm
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Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Bernietards Don't Understand Polling on December 27, 2018, 03:37:40 pm
Kentucky Bevin 50% Beshear 47%
Louisiana Abraham 51% Edwards 48%
Mississippi Reeves 52% Hood 46%


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: TX more competitive than OH on December 27, 2018, 05:39:50 pm
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Looks like youíre predicting a Hood win. And your KY map is probably more realistic than a lot of the other delusions about this race that people have on here, but I would still give the Dem Franklin County.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: politicalmasta73 on December 27, 2018, 06:19:08 pm
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Looks like youíre predicting a Hood win. And your KY map is probably more realistic than a lot of the other delusions about this race that people have on here, but I would still give the Dem Franklin County.
Democrats picked up 8 seats in the KY state senate where Trump won 80%+. Clearly some backlash against levin. I'd at least flip Rowan and maybe Eliott


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Lechasseur on December 27, 2018, 10:21:58 pm
()

This


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: NewYorkExpress on December 28, 2018, 12:21:20 am
Kentucky: Matt Bevin (R) 48%, Andy Beshear 47.9%

Mississippi: Tate Reeves (R) 50.9%, Jim Hood (D) 48.4%

Louisiana: John Bel Edwards (D) 52% (avoids runoff), Ralph Abraham (R) 37%, Eddie Rispone (R) 10%


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Flyersfan232 on December 30, 2018, 10:20:42 pm
Even though most of the attention is now focused on the 2020 presidential election, there will first be such kind of test for both parties with the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

What are your predictons for the 2019 gubernatorial elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_States_gubernatorial_elections
republican sweep


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: brucejoel99 on December 31, 2018, 02:24:09 pm
Even though most of the attention is now focused on the 2020 presidential election, there will first be such kind of test for both parties with the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

What are your predictons for the 2019 gubernatorial elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_States_gubernatorial_elections
republican sweep

Nah, Edwards is fine in LA, esp. considering Kennedy chose not to run


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: YourLocalKiwiGay on February 04, 2019, 01:52:52 am
I am ready to be disappointed already. But Brashear and Hood may put up a fight until Trump makes his trip down south, flails his arms and says some names and puts away any chance the democrat had of winning because heck! Why think for yourself?


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Bernietards Don't Understand Polling on February 04, 2019, 11:49:31 am
I am ready to be disappointed already. But Brashear and Hood may put up a fight until Trump makes his trip down south, flails his arms and says some names and puts away any chance the democrat had of winning because heck! Why think for yourself?

I agree except I feel Trump will doom Edwards as well.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on February 05, 2019, 06:01:25 pm
Bold prediction: Dems sweep, Beshear, Hood & JBE will wim


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: DaWN on February 06, 2019, 01:13:41 pm
KY: Likely R, Bevin by 10
LA: Lean D, Edwards by 5
MS: Tossup, Reeves by 2


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: MAGugh on February 07, 2019, 10:15:37 pm
Kentucky - Flips blue. Probably Beshear.

Louisiana - Stays blue. Bel Edwards wins by a slim 3-5 percent, but I could see this seat getting flipped red.

Mississippi - Tate Reeves wins the GOP primary, with an insurgent Lumumba upsetting Hood in the Democratic primary; and pulling off the upset against Reeves as well - flipping Mississipi by a slim margin and making history.

Chicago - Amara Enyia

Tampa Bay - David Straz

Phoenix - Kate Gallego


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: DPKdebator on February 12, 2019, 10:04:24 am
As of right now I'd say that Mississippi and Kentucky vote Republican, while Louisiana votes Democratic.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: smoltchanov on February 19, 2019, 10:12:44 am
As of right now I'd say that Mississippi and Kentucky vote Republican, while Louisiana votes Democratic.

The same. But only "as of right now"....


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: SnowLabrador on February 22, 2019, 10:05:25 am
I think that JBE will lose by mid-single digits. I think that Beshear and Hood will both appear to be running close with Bevin and Reeves, respectively, but eventually they'll go into free-fall and lose by double digits.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: smoltchanov on February 22, 2019, 10:49:49 am
I think that JBE will lose by mid-single digits. I think that Beshear and Hood will both appear to be running close with Bevin and Reeves, respectively, but eventually they'll go into free-fall and lose by double digits.

Prediction of faithful Republican conservative)))))))


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Councilor Suburban New Jersey Conservative on February 24, 2019, 02:37:04 pm
Louisiana:

Rep. Ralph Abrahan: 50.9%
Gov. John Bel Edwards: 46.5%


Kentucky:
Gov. Matt Bevin: 53%
Attorney General Andy Beshear: 46%

Mississippi

Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves: 56%
Attorney General Jim Hood: 42%


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: LoneStarDem on March 18, 2019, 06:44:46 pm
Governorships:

MS (Open): Toss-Up. I'd like to see Hood pull this off considering the MS Dems last won the MS Governor's Mansion in 1999 when then-LG Ross Musgrove (D) won the Governorship, only to lose reelection in 2003.

KY: Bevin wins reelection easily over Baby Beshear (56% to 41%).

LA: JBE wins without a Runoff: 57% of the statewide vote. Big question is whether the LA Dems make gains on down-ballot contests considering the other down-ballot statewide offices won't be contested.

Mayoral Contests:

Houston, TX: 50-to-50% possibility embattled incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) misses the Runoff; Bill King (R) & Tony Buzbee (D ? or R ?) stand possible shot at being Houston's 63rd Mayor.

There's still backlash against Turner over his disastrous handling over Proposition B & the HFD Firefighters Union, etc., who cannot stand him.

San Francisco ,CA: Breed wins 1st full 4-year term in November & she's eligible for a 2nd full 4-year term in 2023, which could give her close to 9 1/2 years.

Denver, CO: Incumbent Mayor Michael Hancock (D) wins 3rd consecutive term despite some controversies.

San Antonio, TX: Nirenberg wins reelection.

Fort Worth, TX: Price (R) wins 5th term.

Dallas, TX (Open): This might go to a Runoff.

Arlington, TX: Williams (R) wins reelection.

Charlotte, NC: Interesting to see if Lyles seeks another term in office.

Chicago, IL (Open): Lightfoot wins easily in the Runoff barring something crazy between now & April 2nd.





Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on May 15, 2019, 05:57:31 pm
()

S-DEL Carney inc
T-IN Holcomb inc
P-KY Beshear
P-LA JBE

T-MS Reeves
T-MO Parson inc
T-MT Fox

cc-NH Sununu inc
P-NC Cooper inc
T-ND Burgam inc
T-UT open
cc-VT Phil Scott inc

S-WA open
T-WVA Justice


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Oregon Blue Dog on May 19, 2019, 07:08:03 pm
I don't have much faith in the Democrats's ability to win in deep red states. Still, Hood is a strong candidate. I think Bel Edwards will narrowly pull out the win, while Hood will lose by around 3-5 points. Bevin will probably get reelected by around 8-11 points.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on May 20, 2019, 02:59:23 pm
If Dems win either MS or KY and keep LA, the governor make-up will remain the same, due to fact, Dems will ultimately lose MT.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: LiberalDem19 on May 20, 2019, 04:13:04 pm
All three go Republican. Let's be honest here.

We heard in 2014 that McConnell was vulnerable, and Kentucky still voted for him in a landslide.
Southern Whites will vote Republican again, so Louisiana and Mississippi will go red. Bel Edwards isn't even a strong candidate, he only won because Vitter had a weird fetish. And Mississippi, they voted for a woman who joked about lynching.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ on May 21, 2019, 04:35:37 pm
Republicans sweep all three races in a landslide as polarization (which has never been higher before in the history of this country) and the partisan lean of these deep red states prevail. Also, Trump rallies, Trump endorsements, Trump approval, and 2018 was a D+9 year.

KY: Bevin 62.52%, Democratic nominee 32.68% (SAFE R)
LA: Abraham 58.09%, JBE 38.45% (SAFE R)
MS: Reeves 57.86%, Hood 40.06% (SAFE R)

Are JBE and Hood Strong Candidates? Yes, but they have a (D) next to their name, and thatís all that matters.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Old School Republican on May 21, 2019, 04:56:19 pm
Republicans sweep all three races in a landslide as polarization (which has never been higher before in the history of this country) and the partisan lean of these deep red states prevail. Also, Trump rallies, Trump endorsements, Trump approval, and 2018 was a D+9 year.

KY: Bevin 62.52%, Democratic nominee 32.68% (SAFE R)
LA: Abraham 58.09%, JBE 38.45% (SAFE R)
MS: Reeves 57.86%, Hood 40.06% (SAFE R)

Are JBE and Hood Strong Candidates? Yes, but they have a (D) next to their name, and thatís all that matters.


Why do you like to mock the term polarization so much(Which when we talk about mostly talk about it for Presidential, Senate and House ones more than State ones)


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 21, 2019, 08:35:48 pm
MS: GOP Hold.

KY: GOP Hold.

LA: DEM Hold with JBE winning by double digits with 57% & all of the doubters need to STFU.

Dallas, TX Mayor: Johnson wins the Runoff.

San Antonio, TX Mayor: Nirenberg wins reelection.

Houston, TX Mayor: King (R) or Buzbee (D/R) defeat Turner.

San Francisco, CA Mayor: Breed wins election to full 4-year term.

VA State Senate: DEM Pick-Up barring crazy Northam-like scandals.



Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: TX more competitive than OH on May 25, 2019, 04:16:43 pm
Mississippi

Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves: 56%
Attorney General Jim Hood: 42%



This is beyond absurd.

Anyway, I'm extremely pessimistic about the south, but in the end I think at least one of Hood or JBE will *get more votes than* their Republican opponents. In the event that it's Hood, the courts will probably turn around and steal his win from him. I'd love to be proven wrong and all three of Hood, JBE and Beshear win.

Democrats easily pick up the Virginia legislature though.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Councilor Suburban New Jersey Conservative on May 25, 2019, 04:17:18 pm
Mississippi

Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves: 56%
Attorney General Jim Hood: 42%



This is beyond absurd.

Anyway, I'm extremely pessimistic about the south, but in the end I think at least one of Hood or JBE will *get more votes than* their Republican opponents. In the event that it's Hood, the courts will probably turn around and steal his win from him. I'd love to be proven wrong and all three of Hood, JBE and Beshear win.

Democrats easily pick up the Virginia legislature though.

That post so also from February

VA legislature flips

All three governor seats are R

LA by about 2-3 points
MS by 6-8


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: TX more competitive than OH on May 25, 2019, 04:17:52 pm
That post so also from February

And it was absurd then. There's no reason at all to think Hood would do worse than Obama.


Title: Re: Predict the 2019 elections
Post by: Councilor Suburban New Jersey Conservative on May 25, 2019, 04:19:58 pm
Read the new post