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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Tender Branson on December 31, 2018, 04:11:52 am



Title: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)
Post by: Tender Branson on December 31, 2018, 04:11:52 am
The new year 2019 is about to start, time for a new thread !

Here is the old one (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275728.msg6604438#msg6604438).

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In 2019, there are 5 elections in Austria (of which 2 are important elections):

* EU Parliament Elections (May 26)
* Vorarlberg state election (September)

The not so important elections:

* Salzburg municipal elections (mayor & city council + mayoral runoffs, March 10 and 24)
* Chamber for Workers and Employees (= union vote, January to April)
* Austrian Students' Union (= "university parliament/student representation", May 27-29)

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Here is what the year 2019 will bring in terms of changes, among them nice wage and pension increases, a tax cut for families and gay marriage:

https://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/15163476/hoehere-loehne-rauchen-ab-18-oder-ehe-fuer-alle-das-bringt-2019


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on December 31, 2018, 10:01:24 am
With gay marriage becoming legal tomorrow, the FP-led Interior Ministry has now finally decided to send a brochure to the 2.100 or so municipal registries in Austria how to administer them and surprisingly they are very favourable for the gay/lesbian couples:

There will be no fees to pay if gay couples in a current civil union want to upgrade their status to marriage, they only need an appointment at the local municipal clerk who will register their marriage either with simple signatures or with a small ceremony, if the couple wants. Also: gay marriages which were performed abroad will be recognized by Austrian municipal clerks.

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Quote
Die Beamten seien erleichtert, dass das Innenministerium endlich genau festgelegt habe, welche Regelungen es fr Paare in eingetragenen Partnerschaften gibt, die heiraten wollen. Sie knnen einfach mit einer Unterschrift in den Stand der Ehe eintreten oder eine Trauungszeremonie im Standesamt buchen.

Auch im Ausland geschlossene Ehen werden ohne brokratischen Aufwand anerkannt. Umgekehrt knnen auch heterosexuelle Paare, die bisher verheiratet waren, ihre Ehe in eine eingetragene Partnerschaft umwandeln.

https://vorarlberg.orf.at/news/stories/2956217

Excellent.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on December 31, 2018, 10:20:46 am
Georg Willi, the extremely popular directly-elected Green mayor of Innsbruck, has called for a merger of the Austrian Greens and the List "NOW" over the next 4 years - so that the Green movement is united again for the 2022 federal election:

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https://derstandard.at/2000095106342/Innsbrucks-Buergermeister-fuer-Zusammenfuehrung-von-Pilz-und-Gruenen

I also think it's a good strategy, but I'm not sure how this will play out as long as Peter Pilz has still something to say within "NOW" ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on December 31, 2018, 03:18:41 pm
Even though gay marriage will become legal in Austria in slightly more than 2 hours, I don't think there will be any marriage performed tomorrow.

Tomorrow is New Year and therefore a public holiday and all municipal offices are closed.

It would not be the first gay marriage anyway: In October, a lesbian couple has already married in Vienna. It was one of the couples that challenged the gay marriage ban in the Constitutional Court and won. The Court granted the challenging couples to marry immediately after their ruling.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 01, 2019, 02:58:39 am
Nicole Kopaunik (37) & Daniela Paier (37) were the first gay/lesbian couple to marry in Austria right after midnight. The wedding ceremony was performed in the Casino Velden by municipal clerk Klaus Gottwald.

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Looks like I was wrong that there would be no gay marriages today (a public holiday).

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/kaernten/5553508/Ehe-fuer-Alle_Das-JaWort-kam-kurz-nach-dem-Silvesterfeuerwerk


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 01, 2019, 12:49:16 pm
Vice-Chancellor and FP-leader H.C. Strache and his wife Philippa got a New Year's baby today, a son named Hendrik (their first child):

https://derstandard.at/2000095169006/Heinz-Christian-und-Philippa-Strache-mit-eigenem-Neujahrsbaby

Strache will now take paternity leave for several months.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2019, 11:10:11 am
Austria to buy military helicopters

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VIENNA (Reuters) - Austrias government has set aside more than 300 million euros ($341 million) to buy military helicopters including three Blackhawks, it said in a statement on Thursday.

The coalition of Chancellor Sebastian Kurzs conservatives and the far-right Freedom Party deferred a bigger decision late last year on whether to scrap its fleet of Eurofighter jets, as the two parties could not reach agreement.

The neutral country plans to buy three Blackhawks made by Lockheed Martin unit Sikorsky Aircraft, bringing the size of its fleet of that aircraft to 12, it said in a statement.

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-helicopters/austria-sets-aside-more-than-300-million-euros-to-buy-military-helicopters-idUSKCN1OX0R8

Good.

The coalition of Chancellor Sebastian Kurzs conservatives and the far-right Freedom Party deferred a bigger decision late last year on whether to scrap its fleet of Eurofighter jets, as the two parties could not reach agreement.

This was mostly done because of the EU elections in May. VP-FP do not want the unpopular jets to impact the election. A decision is expected by summer.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2019, 11:26:06 am
Austria to implement cell broadcast warning system

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Quote
Austrian Infrastructure Minister Norbert Hofer (FP) plans to implement a public warning SMS system based on cell phone broadcast this year. It will be used to warn the local population in the event of an emergency situation.

The EU's new communications code outlines new requirements to extend such services in the coming years. According to Hofer, the ministry will enter into negotiations with stakeholders on the implementation of the new system.

https://www.telecompaper.com/news/austrian-govt-plans-to-implement-cell-broadcast-catastrophe-warning-system--1275072

Good.

Long overdue.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2019, 03:10:59 pm
Georg Willi, the extremely popular directly-elected Green mayor of Innsbruck, has called for a merger of the Austrian Greens and the List "NOW" over the next 4 years - so that the Green movement is united again for the 2022 federal election:

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https://derstandard.at/2000095106342/Innsbrucks-Buergermeister-fuer-Zusammenfuehrung-von-Pilz-und-Gruenen

I also think it's a good strategy, but I'm not sure how this will play out as long as Peter Pilz has still something to say within "NOW" ...

Peter Pilz says he's "not ruling out" a re-unification with the Greens for the 2022 elections.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Nach-Angebot-Pilz-haelt-Tuer-zu-den-Gruenen-offen/362101779


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Riegel2222 on January 03, 2019, 10:51:45 pm
Honestly wondering under kind of conditions Peter Pilz would accept re-unification with the Greens...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2019, 03:07:50 am
Honestly wondering under what kind of conditions Peter Pilz would accept re-unification with the Greens...

Only if he has still something to say in the unified party, which is unlikely considering he betrayed them and started his own party. I think the best solution would be if NOW were to get rid of Pilz over the next years and then start talks with the Greens.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 04, 2019, 03:11:40 am
The Vienna SP has commissioned an internal poll from Peter Hajek's Public Opinion Strategies recently about the 2020 state election and the image of the new mayor, Michael Ludwig.

While Ludwig is very popular with voters from all parties, the SP is only at 37% (-3% compared with 2015). The FP is at 24% (-7%) and the VP at 17% (+8%). Greens and NEOS are in single digits.

SP+VP looks extremely likely after the 2020 election. Ludwig's SP is pretty tired of 2 terms with the Greens now and doesn't want to govern with the FP either.

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https://kurier.at/politik/inland/die-spoe-nutzt-2019-als-training-fuer-das-rennen-um-wien/400368116


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 05, 2019, 04:59:52 am
Austria had a budget surplus of 1.6 Bio. in the first 11 months of 2018.

That compares with a budget deficit of 5.1 Bio. in the first 11 months of 2017.

VAT-revenues, the biggest chunk of total revenues, increased by 3% compared with a year earlier.

Income tax revenues, the 2nd-biggest chunk of total revenues, rose by 7% compared with a year earlier.

In total, revenues were up 4.7% in the first 11 months. Outlays down by 4.7% compared with 2017.

https://service.bmf.gv.at/budget/akthh/2018/201811_HTML_BUDGET_F.htm

https://service.bmf.gv.at/budget/akthh/2018/201811_HTML_UG16_F.htm

If December does not come in badly, we might have had our first budget surplus in more than 50 years in 2018 already. One year earlier than planned.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 05, 2019, 05:25:55 am
VP-FP will start the new year with a 2-day work retreat next week to work out the first details of their agenda for 2019.

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Their agenda includes 4 main topics this year:

* a major tax reform and tax cuts (lower income/social-security taxes for small- and middle-income earners, worth 2-3 Bio. annually. The top tax rate of 55% for high-income earners will not be lowered though. Also, corporate taxes will be lowered by about 1 Bio. annually to attract more investment and more jobs). Also, the tax-bracket creep will be targeted.

* as a result of those tax talks, there will also be first negotiations about the new double budget 2020/2021, which will incorporate the tax reforms (effective 1.1.2020) and which will be passed in the fall. Despite all the tax cuts, the double budget for 2020/2021 could be balanced again or see small surpluses.

* a major reform of the long-term care for the elderly (maybe with an introduction of a care-insurance to shift the burden from the state in our ageing society, more towards a private component).

* promotion of digitalisation (digital classrooms and 5G rollout) and taxing multinational large IT companies operating in Austria with a 3% tax as a sign of fairness to small-income earners.

There are certainly other topics as well such as the purchase of the new fighter jets for the military to replace the Eurofighter jets, which are going to be controversial.

https://orf.at/stories/3106339

It's good to see a government that actually works for the people.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 10, 2019, 12:49:25 pm
VP-FP has agreed to a 6 Bio. tax cut/reform today at their work retreat, with no budget deficits until 2022:

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It will be a 3-step tax cut and a combination of social insurance tax cuts for low-income earners (who pay almost no or no income tax at all that could be lowered), income-tax cuts for middle-income earners and corporate tax cuts. The small- and middle-income tax cuts will come next year already, the corporate tax cuts will follow in 2021.

Here's also an updated picture of the government (Strache took a 2-day break from his paternal leave):

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https://derstandard.at/2000095866024/OeVP-und-FPOe-bei-den-meisten-Details-zur-Steuerreform-noch


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 10, 2019, 01:11:58 pm
Red-Green Vienna will not enforce the new welfare reform law that the federal VP-FP government will pass soon and will see deep cuts for foreigners (but more money for the disabled and single-parents):

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https://orf.at/stories/3107181

SP+Greens argue that the deep cuts in basic welfare money destroys the social safety net for the weakest in our society and will lead to an increase in crime as a result. VP-FP argue that the cuts will be an incentive for those (who can work) to find higher-paid work and their way out of poverty and dependency.

If Vienna does indeed not enforce the new law, VP-FP could sue them. On the other hand Vienna could also sue VP-FP. Eventually, it seems the Constitutional Court will have to decide.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 12, 2019, 05:54:30 am
The new Profil poll has the FP at 21%, a new record low:

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Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 12, 2019, 07:58:56 am
The last time the FP had 21% in a poll was in mid-2013.

Maybe one of the reasons why the FP is dropping are their recent attacks on the charitable organisation Caritas, which they accused of "keeping the asylum industry up and running".

Caritas shot back at the FP, saying that aid for refugees is only a small part of their aid campaign (which of course is correct) and that most of their help is for poor Austrians.

That could be really unpopular with the population and even some FP-voters. Targeting charitable organisations is pretty uncool after all.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/fpoe-gegen-caritas-auf-dem-ruecken-der-ehrenamtlichen/400375442


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 12, 2019, 01:10:03 pm
With the FP in a fight with Caritas, Chancellor Kurz has also created controversy yesterday by saying that "in Vienna, where we have a significant welfare recipient problem, we have a lot of families where only the kids get up in the morning for school while their parents keep on sleeping. We from the VP are the ones for those who get up early in the morning and do hard work."

This led to the creation of the hashtag #WienStehtAuf ("Vienna wakes up", or "Vienna rising up"), where mostly left-wing people and politicians post how they get up very early in the morning to go to work. The SP has posted a video too.

https://derstandard.at/2000096022481/WienStehtAuf-Netzgemeinde-lehnt-sich-gegen-Kurz-Sager-auf


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 16, 2019, 12:27:45 pm
After numerous cases in recent years and especially the past few weeks where accepted asylum seekers have committed serious crimes (such as rapes & murders), VP+FP are now planning to tighten the asylum and deportation laws significantly to become the toughest in the EU:

In recent days/weeks, 2 young Austrian girls were killed by their Afghan/Syrian asylum seeking boyfriends, after they wanted to split up.

First they want to talk with other EU-countries to enforce swift and immediate deportations even in cases where these people have only committed softer crimes.

If there's no consensus, VP-FP might also become the first country in the EU to deport soft-crime asylum seekers to prevent future, more terrible crimes.

"Sometimes you need pioneers to get things moving.", Chancellor Kurz said today.

https://orf.at/stories/3107925

Long overdue, because:

The sad thing with #3 is that the 19-year Syrian "killfugee" has already committed a crime last year against her (domestic violence), but sadly he wasn't stripped of his asylum status and immediately deported back to Syria. It would have prevented this murder of the 16-year old Austrian girl yesterday.

I repeat: If accepted refugees f**k their host countries in such a disgusting way or even commit small crimes, their asylum status needs to be revoked immediately, put into preventive deportation imprisonment and they need to be deported back to where they came from. VP+FP need to act and throw all criminal refugees out of the country now ! If they cannot behave, they have no place here !


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 19, 2019, 10:29:27 am
New OGM poll for the "Kurier" newspaper:

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Austrians also favour the welfare/basic income reform of VP-FP by huge margins and surprisingly also side with Chancellor Kurz and his remarks that "in some families on welfare, only the kids get up in the morning to go to school, while their parents keep on sleeping and we need to change that."

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/langschlaefer-kritik-an-wien-mehrheit-gibt-kanzler-kurz-recht/400382915

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/umfrage-bevoelkerung-klar-fuer-reform-der-mindestsicherung/400382504


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2019, 02:32:10 pm
12.611 people have been deported last year (incl. those who left the country voluntarily).

In 2017, the number was 11.974 deported - so the overall number of deported people did not increase a lot in the first year of the FP being in charge of the Interior Ministry.

The only things that did change were the forced deportations, which increased by 47%, while the number of voluntary returns decreased by a lot.

Also, the number of new asylum requests was 13.400 last year, down from 24.735 in 2017 and more than 88.000 in 2015.

https://www.bfa.gv.at/bmi_documents/2280.pdf

I would have suggested that under VP-FP, deportations would exceed new asylum requests so that the backlog would decrease, but it seems there's a lot more work to do to get these people out of the country again ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: rob in cal on January 24, 2019, 05:19:59 pm
One thing is that the gap between new asylum seekers and deportations is narrowing significantly, and might reach a crossover point this year. I love the graphics in the link btw, with the airplanes especially. Looks like one extra deportation flight per month in 2018 vs 2017.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2019, 10:27:41 am
One thing is that the gap between new asylum seekers and deportations is narrowing significantly, and might reach a crossover point this year. I love the graphics in the link btw, with the airplanes especially. Looks like one extra deportation flight per month in 2018 vs 2017.

That's correct. Currently, the asylum agency are speeding up processing the asylum requests of the past few years and therefore deportations are on the rise in general. Forced deportations are definitely up because the FP Interior Ministry is putting a focus on criminal rejected asylum seekers being removed from the country more quickly (but still a lot more needs to be done).

Based on the December asylum requests (850), it is likely that the number of new asylum requests in 2019 will be back to pre-2014 levels and down to 10.000, which is low for Austria - but high on an international basis. For example, in US terms it would still amount to ca. 400.000 asylum requests a year, but the US only has 100.000 per year.

Preferably, I would say that new asylum requests should go down to as low as 3.000 per year and deportations up to 15.000 per year, to get rid of all the criminals and the backlog in general. The next thing we need to discuss is starting deportations to Syria, which is by-and-large quite safe again these days, especially the area around Damascus and the coastal parts.

A new poll shows that 75% (!) of Austrians support a repatriation treaty with the Assad government, so Austria could start deporting refugees and so-called "refugees" back to Syria.

Also, 77% want tougher asylum laws to deport even low-key criminal asylum seekers.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/75-fuer-mehr-Abschiebungen/365218781


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 25, 2019, 10:29:51 am
New Vienna poll (24/Research Affairs):

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https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Neue-Wien-Umfrage-Nach-Streit-mit-Regierung-kann-SPOe-zulegen/365220158

Not sure why they asked Meinl-Reisinger for NEOS. She's no longer leader of the Vienna-NEOS.

A continuation of Red-Green is currently impossible. SP-VP is very likely next year.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 26, 2019, 03:12:08 am
Austrian opposition call on interior minister to step down

Quote
The leader of Austria's opposition Social Democrats called on Interior Minister Herbert Kickl to resign for questioning the European Convention on Human Rights.

"If Kickl had a spark of decency and respect for democracy left, he would resign now," Pamela Rendi-Wagner told public broadcaster ORF's 1 program on Friday, adding that she would be pushing for a parliamentary vote of confidence.

On Tuesday, Kickl, of the far-right Freedom Party (FP), was asked during a TV interview if his latest proposals for stricter asylum procedures would contravene the European Convention on Human Rights.

()

https://www.politico.eu/article/herbert-kickl-austrian-opposition-call-on-interior-minister-to-step-down

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-01/25/c_137774556.htm


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 on January 28, 2019, 12:05:18 pm
If NEOS had to choose between the red green alliance and an OVP-FPO coalition, who would they choose?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 28, 2019, 12:23:32 pm
If NEOS had to choose between the red green alliance and an OVP-FPO coalition, who would they choose?

This is only a question for Vienna, because Austria-wide it is not relevant as VP+FP have a clear majority.

As for Vienna 2020, NEOS is still unsure about what to do - especially if they are kingmaker. Both SP+Greens and FPVP would get around 44% right now in the polling.

NEOS has said they want to oust the SP from the mayoral post in 2020 and would be willing to vote for an independent mayor instead (nominated by the VP, but not the FP).

NEOS would not enter a coalition with the FP though, because their voter base would go nuts in such a case.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on January 28, 2019, 12:48:14 pm
Tender, please refrain from posting more than about 20% of an article you're linking. You know Dave's policy on copyright.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 28, 2019, 12:52:12 pm
Tender, please refrain from posting more than about 20% of an article you're linking. You know Dave's policy on copyright.

Usually I do, but sometimes I just copy the whole text.

You can then shorten it if you like. It's your job (again ?!?)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on January 28, 2019, 01:06:21 pm
Tender, please refrain from posting more than about 20% of an article you're linking. You know Dave's policy on copyright.

Usually I do, but sometimes I just copy the whole text.

You can then shorten it if you like. It's your job (again ?!?)

Look, I'm sorry, but I must insist you show some restrain yourself. Dave's rules.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 28, 2019, 01:12:34 pm
Tender, please refrain from posting more than about 20% of an article you're linking. You know Dave's policy on copyright.

Usually I do, but sometimes I just copy the whole text.

You can then shorten it if you like. It's your job (again ?!?)

Look, I'm sorry, but I must insist you show some restrain yourself. Dave's rules.

This doesn't happen often anyway ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on January 28, 2019, 01:14:45 pm
Tender, please refrain from posting more than about 20% of an article you're linking. You know Dave's policy on copyright.

Usually I do, but sometimes I just copy the whole text.

You can then shorten it if you like. It's your job (again ?!?)

Look, I'm sorry, but I must insist you show some restrain yourself. Dave's rules.

This doesn't happen often anyway ...

I've just had to modify like six posts, so just saying.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 28, 2019, 01:22:26 pm
Tender, please refrain from posting more than about 20% of an article you're linking. You know Dave's policy on copyright.

Usually I do, but sometimes I just copy the whole text.

You can then shorten it if you like. It's your job (again ?!?)

Look, I'm sorry, but I must insist you show some restrain yourself. Dave's rules.

This doesn't happen often anyway ...

I've just had to modify like six posts, so just saying.

It would be better if you are not modifying old posts. I guess you have something better to do in your free time. But I will look more carefully in the future.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on January 28, 2019, 01:24:15 pm
Tender, please refrain from posting more than about 20% of an article you're linking. You know Dave's policy on copyright.

Usually I do, but sometimes I just copy the whole text.

You can then shorten it if you like. It's your job (again ?!?)

Look, I'm sorry, but I must insist you show some restrain yourself. Dave's rules.

This doesn't happen often anyway ...

I've just had to modify like six posts, so just saying.

It would be better if you are not modifying old posts. I guess you have something better to do in your free time. But I will look more carefully in the future.

Thank you.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on January 31, 2019, 02:34:26 pm
The opposition (SP, NEOS, Now) tried to remove Interior Minister Kickl (FP) from office yesterday for the 6th or 7th time already with a no-confidence vote in parliament.

They failed of course, because VP+FP voted it down.

Kickl has come under fire lately because he wants to deport to Syria as well (which 3/4 Austrians support).

After the no-confidence vote failed, Kickl said that he'll continue his "work to keep Austrians safe from criminal asylum seekers".

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5571506/Koalition-vertraut-Innenminister-Kickl

In other news, Austrian GDP went up by 2.7% last year - twice the growth rate of the EU.

This is interesting, because Germany's growth has come to a standstill and Italy has dropped into recession territory. Both countries are our most relevant business partners of course.

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/wirtschaft/oesterreich/1015482_Oesterreichs-Wirtschaft-waechst-konstant.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 02, 2019, 06:36:15 am
The opposition (SP, NEOS, Now) tried to remove Interior Minister Kickl (FP) from office yesterday for the 6th or 7th time already with a no-confidence vote in parliament.

They failed of course, because VP+FP voted it down.

2 new polls show that Austrians are mixed to negative about FP Interior Minister Kickl:

One poll shows that 40% want Kickl to step down, but 41% do not.

Another poll shows that 52% think that Kickl and his definition of the (asylum) law is "dangerous", whereas 31% say the recent debate about it is "overblown".

https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Wie-viele--sterreicher-sich-gegen-Herbert-Kickl-stellen-49289578


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 04, 2019, 02:11:42 pm
Steiermark (Styria) is set to hold state elections next year during the fall, but there has been some talk recently that the VP there wants to vote early (in the spring of 2020, or even in the fall of this year).

There's a new poll by Market out today in the "Standard" for those elections:

30% VP (+1.5% compared with 2015)
27% SP (-2.3%)
24% FP (-2.8%)
  9% Greens (+2.3%)
  4% KP (-0.2%)
  4% NEOS (+1.4%)
  1% Others

Voters strongly oppose early elections though: 72% say VP-SP should work until their term is over in late 2020, while only 14% want earlier elections.

56% say that Styria is heading in the right direction, while only 20% say that the state is moving in the wrong direction - which would explain the small changes in the poll compared with 2015.

The current government is VP-SP (in 2015, the SP actually finished ahead of the VP in the state election, but got screwed over in the coalition talks by the VP and they gave up their claim for the Governor post).

https://derstandard.at/2000097462230/OeVP-dominiert-steirische-Politik-Neuwahlen-will-fast-niemand


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 08, 2019, 11:49:41 am
The not so important elections:

* Chamber for Workers and Employees (= union vote, January to April)

The first round of this union vote representing the 4 million workers in Austria was held over the past week or so in Tyrol, Salzburg and Vorarlberg.

Tyrol and Vorarlberg have already released their results.

It should be noted that those states are the only 2 among the 9 states where historically the VP-aligned Unionists are dominant, whereas in the other states the SP-aligned Unionists are dominant.

In both states, the AAB/FCG lost ground a bit while the FSG gained slightly. Still, the AAB/FCG won with 61.4% in Tyrol and with 47.3% in Vorarlberg (they lost their absolute majority though).

The results for Salzburg will be out tomorrow I guess (I didn't even vote in this one, because the FSG will win with around 70% anyway).

https://derstandard.at/2000097743505/Arbeiterkammer-Wahl-OeAABFCG-verliert-in-Vorarlberg-Absolute-FSG-legte-zu

Explanation about the Chamber of Labour (https://wien.arbeiterkammer.at/service/Ratgeber/Die_Arbeiterkammer/The_Chamber_of_Labour_201810.pdf)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 09, 2019, 09:07:20 am
The election results for here in Salzburg are out:

()

FSG = SP Unionists
FCG = VP Unionists
FA = FP Unionists
AUGE = Green Unionists
GLB = Left Block Unionists


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 10, 2019, 09:09:22 am
There are 2 additional polls out of Styria to the one I posted above (one conducted for the SP and one for the Greens):

()

https://www.krone.at/1860459

Bottom line of those polls:

* The VP is doing better than in the 2015 state election.
* The SP is losing a bit, just like the FP.
* The Greens are doing surprisingly well.
* NEOS might gain a seat for the first time next year.
* The Communists are losing a bit or seem to be stable.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2019, 12:06:13 pm
There's also a poll for the Vorarlberg state election in September (the only state election this year), commissioned by the "VN" newspaper and conducted between Dec. 27 and Jan. 10th:

()

VP and NEOS would be stable compared with the 2014 state election, while the FP and Greens would drop a bit. Considering that Vorarlberg is the Greens best state, their 12% right now are really good news for them. The SP would also gain a bit.

Currently, there's a VP-Green state government and based on the poll results, it could continue for another term.

Important: the poll was done during the Christmas holidays, which is a terrible time to do a poll. It was also done before the murder of a welfare employee in Vorarlberg last week by an illegal asylum seeker, which could benefit the FP in the next months.

https://www.vol.at/sonntagsfrage-wie-wuerde-vorarlberg-jetzt-waehlen/6090919


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: rob in cal on February 11, 2019, 04:55:44 pm
  Would there be any pressure on the OVP Vorarlberg Party to join with the FPO in a coalition, as this is the federal model?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 12, 2019, 12:39:04 pm
 Would there be any pressure on the OVP Vorarlberg Party to join with the FPO in a coalition, as this is the federal model?

Pressure maybe, but the Vorarlberg VP Governor Wallner has already said he won't govern with the FP and prefers the Greens instead.

After the Salzburg state election last year, Kurz also pressured the VP-Governor Haslauer (who's even more popular than Kurz) to go with the FP, but he dumped Kurz and the FP and created a VP-Green-NEOS state government instead.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: PSOL on February 14, 2019, 01:58:08 pm
Well this is happening...
Swiss Vet tries to re-establish noble naming rites (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/14/the-von-trap-austrian-battle-over-three-noble-letters)
Quote
It is a furious battle over three small letters that Austrias most famous musical family would surely approve of.

A Swiss vet is taking the Austrian state to task over its ban of the use of the aristocratic prefix von (meaning of), which was outlawed 100 years ago following the collapse of the Habsburg empire.

Niklaus von Steiger is insisting that his Austrian fiancee, Christel Troll, should be able to adopt the von from his surname when they marry, so that she can be recognised as Christel Troll-von Steiger.

But the Austrian state has refused, on the grounds that it must strictly abide by Austrias Adelsaufhebungsgesetz or nobility abolition law, from 1919, which is viewed is an important expression of the principle of equality that was established after the collapse of the monarchy in 1918, when those of noble stock lost their privileges.
Will this issue be pushed by VP and FP to stick it to the freaks  and Turks in Vienna? I wonder, what are the possibilities that this will be a new calling cry for the EU elections for each party? What will the forums Austrian expert, Tender Branson, weigh in on this. Something articulate and informative, I presume?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 14, 2019, 02:02:46 pm
Well this is happening...
Swiss Vet tries to re-establish noble naming rites (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/14/the-von-trap-austrian-battle-over-three-noble-letters)
Quote
It is a furious battle over three small letters that Austrias most famous musical family would surely approve of.

A Swiss vet is taking the Austrian state to task over its ban of the use of the aristocratic prefix von (meaning of), which was outlawed 100 years ago following the collapse of the Habsburg empire.

Niklaus von Steiger is insisting that his Austrian fiancee, Christel Troll, should be able to adopt the von from his surname when they marry, so that she can be recognised as Christel Troll-von Steiger.

But the Austrian state has refused, on the grounds that it must strictly abide by Austrias Adelsaufhebungsgesetz or nobility abolition law, from 1919, which is viewed is an important expression of the principle of equality that was established after the collapse of the monarchy in 1918, when those of noble stock lost their privileges.
Will this issue be pushed by VP and FP to stick it to the freaks  and Turks in Vienna? I wonder, what are the possibilities that this will be a new calling cry for the EU elections for each party? What will the forums Austrian expert, Tender Branson, weigh in on this. Something articulate and informative, I presume?

First time I have heard about this thing and I cannot imagine that this will become an issue of some kind in the EU elections ... it's extremely meaningless after all.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 16, 2019, 02:08:02 am
In the latest "Profil" magazine poll, the FP gains 4% (!) compared with last month.

That is probably either a reaction to the murder of a welfare agency worker by an illegal asylum seeker, or just a return to normal polling numbers after a few outlier polls. But I suspect it is the first one because of the outrageous nature of this killing. The illegal asylum seeker went into the office of the district welfare worker, shouted "Give me the welfare money ! I'm entitled to it !" and then stabbed the worker to death, showing no remorse to police afterwards.

32% VP (-3)
26% SP (-1)
25% FP (+4)
  8% NEOS (n.c.)
  6% Greens (n.c.)
  1% Now (-1)
  2% Others (+1)

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190216_OTS0004/profil-umfrage-fpoe-erholt-sich


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 16, 2019, 07:20:16 am
Another new poll by Demox Research (Feb. 5-8, n=1000) and appearing in the "Presse" newspaper today has different results:

34.0% VP
27.0% SP
22.0% FP
  8.5% Greens
  5.0% Greens
  1.5% Now
  2.0% Others

By a 59-37 margin, voters approve of the VP-FP government.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5580266/Sonntagsfrage_OeVP-voran-FPOe-verliert-SPOe-stabil

But the Vorarlberg murder happened on Feb. 6, so the FP-bump might not be visible in this poll yet.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 16, 2019, 10:08:42 am
I received my postal ballot for the March 10 Salzburg municipal elections yesterday.

I voted straight-ticket SP, for both mayor and city council.

The mayoral post as well the 25-member city council are in VP control, based on the '14 elections though: VP 13 seats, SP 8 seats, 2 seats Greens, 2 seats FP.

I assume that not a lot will change and that the VP will easily hold both the mayor and city council.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 16, 2019, 02:21:25 pm
2 female FP-candidates for upcoming elections with migrant background are making headlines, one positively for the party and one negatively for the party:

Vesna Schuster, the FP's frontrunner in Lower Austria for the EU elections, has been heavily attacked by a Green unionist (also with a Serb migration background). He literally called her a "dumb farmers bi*ch". The union which he belongs to demanded his resignation.

https://www.noen.at/st-poelten/ak-noe-distanziert-sich-gruener-kammerrat-beschimpftfp-abgeordnete-wilhelmsburg-vesna-schuster-samir-kesetovic-fpoe-beschimpfungen-136062666

Here in Salzburg on the other hand, Canan Brenner (FP, Turkish migration background), is hunting for votes in the upcoming municipal election - also by sending out SMS and Whatsapp messages in Turkish. The FP doesn't like this of course.

https://www.krone.at/1861624


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 17, 2019, 01:56:22 am
Here is how subgroups would vote right now, based on the new Research Affairs/24 poll (the MoE among the subgroups is pretty high though, except for men and women):

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 20, 2019, 02:39:54 pm
100 years ago, the first federal election took place in which women were able to vote.

Even today, only 37% of Austria's parliament MPs are women - so for the 100th anniversary of the occasion, the Austrian parliament was outfitted with 100% young women for a day:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 20, 2019, 03:17:39 pm
A new GMK/Bezirksbltter poll for the March 10 municipal elections here in Salzburg, specifically a poll for the City of Salzburg:

City council

()

Mayor (1st round)

()

Preuner (VP) has only won the 2017 by-election runoff with about 50.2% of the vote, so a defeat could be possible based on these numbers.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 22, 2019, 01:51:52 pm
The VP-FP coalition will get "their" first joint baby:

()

Johanna Jachs (VP, 27) and Hannes Amesbauer (FP, 37) are expecting their first child. They are both representatives in the Austrian Parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/erstes-tuerkis-blaues-koalitionsbaby-kommt-im-august-zur-welt/400414481


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 23, 2019, 12:08:36 am
Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SP-leader) was a first-responder yesterday, when she was on a highway in Salzburg and a motorcycle accident happened in front of her:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/salzburg-rendi-wagner-leistete-erste-hilfe-bei-verkehrsunfall/400414109

The driver was moderately injured and Rendi-Wagner helped him (she's a doctor) until the ambulance arrived.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on February 26, 2019, 12:44:07 am
Austrians strongly support mandatory vaccinations of children against such diseases like measles:

https://www.heute.at/life/gesundheit/story/Masern-Masern-Impfung-Impfen-Politik-Umfrage-Mehrheit-der--sterreicher-fuer-Impfpflicht-fuer-Kinder-41886458

Even though vaccinations are not mandatory, 77% support it while just 17% are opposed. The FP-led Health Ministry has said that vaccinations will not be made mandatory for now, as the measles cases in Austria are still relatively low in the European context and the percentage of children with protection is high anyway, despite not being mandatory.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 02, 2019, 02:50:22 am
After the recent brutal murder of a welfare agency worker by an illegal asylum seeker in Dornbirn, FP Interior Minister Kickl has brought up the idea of a "preventive imprisonment" for illegal asylum seekers or accepted asylum seekers with previous crimes:

()

https://orf.at/stories/3113584

This has been the topic of a very controversial debate here over the past week or so and for it to be passed, it would need a constitutional 2/3 majority.

While the more FP-leaning Governor of Burgenland Doskozil (SP) has come out in favour of this idea (with an expansion to Austrian citizens, if a psychologist for example has clear evidence for an impending crime), the federal SP leadership and party leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner clarified that she's opposed to a general preventive imprisonment.

With the SP, NEOS and NOW saying that they will not back it, VP-FP have no 2/3 majority in parliament to implement the measure (even the VP Justice Minister, Education Minister, the head of the lawyer's union and the Church has come out against the measure).

Still, a poll out today shows that 69% of Austrians would support such a preventive imprisonment of asylum seekers and only 22% opposed.

90% of VP-voters would support it and 86% of FP-voters. Even SP-voters support it by a 56-34 margin.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190302_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-mehrheit-der-oesterreicher-haelt-sicherungshaft-fuer-ueberlegenswert


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 02, 2019, 03:16:26 am
The Austrian population on Jan. 1, 2019 was 8.86 million and increased by 38.000 persons or about 0.4% compared with the year earlier. It mostly increased in the big cities and suburbs.

The number of people with a foreign citizenship increased to 16.2% (up from 15.8%) and the share with a migrant background to 25%.

There were 9.450 naturalisations last year. Despite that, the number of Austrian citizens still decreased by 6.000 people overall, while the number of foreigners increased by 44.000 people. Of the increase of 44.000, about 37.000 came from EU-foreigners while non-EU foreigners went up by about 7.000 people.

The foreign citizenships with the highest numerical increases were Romanians (+11.000), followed by Germans and Hungarians (+6.000 each).

There were 85.100 births in Austria last year (-2.9%) and 82.800 deaths (-0.5%) and therefore a natural increase of 2.300 people.

It remains to be seen if the drop in the birth numbers will continue or not, because 2019 will see generous tax benefits for families with kids. Maybe some couples delayed having kids to this year to cash in on the benefits.

The infant mortality rate dropped to 2.5/1000 births, a new record low.

There were also 45.500 marriages (+1.1%) and 450 civil unions (-15%). The sharp drop could be explained by many couples waiting for 2019 to marry (gay marriage became legal this year).

http://www.statistik.at/web_de/presse/120257.html

http://www.statistik.at/web_de/presse/120329.html

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 02, 2019, 03:34:17 am
The Austrian economy increased by 2.7% in real terms last year, the best performance since 2011 and among the best results in the EU (excl. Eastern Europe of course).

()

https://derstandard.at/2000098748016/Oesterreichische-Wirtschaft-2018-real-um-2-7-Prozent-gewachsen

Still, the unemployment rate only dropped to 4.8% last year, because of the many EU-foreigners streaming into the country and into the labour market. A growth rate like 2.7% would usually lead to a much lower unemployment rate, but Austrian companies these days seem to only hire foreigners instead of Austrian unemployed.

A new study in the "Standard" shows that of all new jobs created since 2008, some 90% (!) went to foreigners.

Of the more than 450.000 new jobs in the past 10 years, about 373.000 went to foreigners.

At the same time, about 300.000 Austrian citizens are without jobs ... which is sad. Our companies should increase their efforts to hire local people, even if it means training them for a while, instead of just opting for foreign employees.

https://derstandard.at/2000098838418/Der-Jobboom-ist-auslaendisch-Wie-Migration-den-Arbeitsmarkt-umkrempelt


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2019, 03:56:45 am
After the recent brutal murder of a welfare agency worker by an illegal asylum seeker in Dornbirn, FP Interior Minister Kickl has brought up the idea of a "preventive imprisonment" for illegal asylum seekers or accepted asylum seekers with previous crimes.

Kurz now wants to act quickly and pass a new law for asylum seekers to put them into preventive imprisonment, which apparently doesn't need a 2/3 majority in parliament (unlike if such a measure also includes Austrian citizens).

In fact, many EU countries already allow preventive imprisonment of illegal/already criminal asylum seekers, to avoid further crimes.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kanzler-macht-bei-sicherungshaft-tempo-rechtlich-saubere-loesung/400423991


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2019, 01:31:26 pm
The new uniforms of the Austrian Army are now officially worn, starting today.

Thank Goodness, because the old ones looked like straight out of WW2 or North Korea ...

New combat uniforms and helmets:

()

()

New army base uniforms:

()

Old ones:

()

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/steiermark/5589107/CamouflageLook_Ab-heute-sehen-TarnUniformen-des-Bundesheeres


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: rob in cal on March 04, 2019, 04:56:44 pm
    Tender, in your area do you see lots of foreign workers?  Looks like Hungarians and Rumanians and other East Europeans predominate.  Do you see this throughout Austria, or more just in the big urban areas?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2019, 09:27:05 am
    Tender, in your area do you see lots of foreign workers?  Looks like Hungarians and Rumanians and other East Europeans predominate.  Do you see this throughout Austria, or more just in the big urban areas?

Foreign workers now make up 20%+ of the workforce here, which is higher than their population share. And it is not just in urban areas, but everywhere. Obviously, the labour market needs some additional skilled workers from abroad, but not the unqualified people from the Middle East or Africa. We have 300.000 unemployed Austrians (as I have mentioned above), where our companies have a social responsibility to hire them and train them properly for a period of time (even if this takes longer than just hiring a skilled worker from another EU country).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2019, 09:47:32 am
Municipal elections take place on Sunday here in Salzburg and its 119 cities and towns for a new 5-year term.

I have already voted via post for the SP mayoral candidate and SP for city council.

My prediction for Zell am See mayor:

58% Peter Padourek (VP, incumbent) (-8% compared with 2014)
37% Andreas Wimmreuter (SP) (+8%)
  5% Werner Hrl (Greens) (n.c.)

The SP candidate is obviously hurt by the presence of a Green candidate on the ballot, while there is no FP or NEOS candidate there to hurt the VP candidate.

For the city council, the FPS will run instead of the FP.

My prediction:

50% VP (-3%)
34% SP (+4%)
  8% Greens (-1%)
  8% FPS (n.c. vs. FP in 2014)

In Radstadt for example, VP (!) and SP (!) did not find a candidate for mayor who wanted to run, so the FP candidate Pewny will be the only one on the ballot. He still needs to get approved by the voters, such as other lone mayoral candidates in other towns. If more than 50% vote "no", a new mayor needs to be elected by the new city council.

In the state capital, Salzburg City (155.000 people), the results should be along the lines of the poll I posted above (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=310336.msg6679637#msg6679637) and there will definitely be a runoff between Preuner (VP) and Auinger (SP) 2 weeks later and I have no clue who wins. It will be close again, with a very, very slight advantage for Preuner. But I would not be shocked if Auinger wins this time.

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/bmw/index2019.html#erg.5.1.0.0

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/gvw/index2019.html#erg.5.0.0.0


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 07, 2019, 02:11:15 pm
After FP-leader Strache recently took paternal leave after the birth of their child, the next Austrian party leader will take maternal leave soon:

()

Liberal NEOS-leader Beate Meinl-Reisinger (already highly pregnant) will be absent for the next month or two and miss most of the EU election campaign.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 on March 07, 2019, 04:37:56 pm
Does the FPO have any vulnerability on their right flank, given that they are a governing party now?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 08, 2019, 12:52:21 am
Does the FPO have any vulnerability on their right flank, given that they are a governing party now?

Nope.

There are some fringe Auxit groups to the right of the FP and actual Neonazis, but the first groups are small and fragmented and the second, if they were to establish their own parties, would be banned.

Besides, the FP is still holding up quite well after more than a year in government: their supporters are mostly happy, even the far-right ones. Trouble would only start if they drop below 20% in the polls, which seems unlikely ATM.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: rob in cal on March 08, 2019, 02:11:22 am
  Just keep the deportation numbers rising, new asylum requests downward and I think most FPO voters would be happy. Also, it would be nice to see the new direct democracy law, in spite of its high signature threshold, activated, but of course thats not to allowed until after this parliament is over, IIRC.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 08, 2019, 05:06:49 am
  Just keep the deportation numbers rising, new asylum requests downward and I think most FPO voters would be happy. Also, it would be nice to see the new direct democracy law, in spite of its high signature threshold, activated, but of course thats not to allowed until after this parliament is over, IIRC.

Yeah, more direct democracy is something that VP-FP is planning for 2022, or in their 2nd term.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 08, 2019, 05:09:35 am
2 new polls today, everything very stable:

()

https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Kurz-fliegt-allen-davon--Gruene-wiedergeboren-49512316

()

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Rendi-rutscht-ab-FPOe-schon-Zweite/370910425


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 09, 2019, 08:38:10 am
About 35.000 postal ballots have been requested for the municipal elections here in Salzburg tomorrow.

That is a lot more than in 2014, when just 27.000 were requested and roughly the same amount as for the 2018 state election.

Not sure what this means for turnout overall but I expect about a 70% turnout tomorrow.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 09, 2019, 02:16:59 pm
By a vote of 45-18, the Austrian Protestant Church assembly decided today to allow LGBT's to be married in their Church(es).

Gay marriage is legal since Jan. 1 this year.

https://evang.at/schritt-richtung-gleichberechtigung-oeffentlicher-segnungsgottesdienst-fuer-alle

Good.

Will be interesting to see when the Catholic Church and Muslims will follow ... maybe in 200 years ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 09, 2019, 09:24:36 pm
Municipal elections (city councils and 1st rounds of mayoral elections) here in the state of Salzburg today.

In 119 cities and for a new 5 year term.

The first polls will open around 7am and close at noon in some smaller towns and then up until 5pm in bigger cities.

Im mostly interested in the results of my city (Zell am See) and that of the towns in the district + the results of the capital Salzburg City (155.000 people).

The weather is cold and mostly dry in the South and a bit warmer but rainy in the North.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 04:28:11 am
My prediction for Salzburg City today:

Mayor (1st round)

33.1% - Harald Preuner (VP, incumbent)
31.5% - Bernhard Auinger (SP)
13.5% - Martina Berthold (Greens)
10.9% - Andreas Reindl (FP)
  6.4% - Lukas Paul Rsslhuber (NEOS)
  2.6% - Christoph Ferch (SALZ)
  1.8% - Kay-Michael Dankl (KP+)
  0.2% - Hadwig Soyoye-Rothschdl (Left)

City Council

34.2% - SP
27.9% - VP
13.3% - Greens
10.9% - FP
  7.1% - NEOS
  2.6% - SALZ
  2.0% - FPS
  1.8% - KP+
  0.2% - Left

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 05:02:45 am
A first trend should come in about 1 hour, when the first polls close at noon in some small towns - such as Krimml, a tourist magnet because of Europe's highest waterfalls and recovery spot for those with breath or lung disease like asthma.

http://www.wasserfaelle-krimml.at/en/be-amazed/natural-remedy


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 07:06:03 am
Municipal elections (city councils and 1st rounds of mayoral elections) here in the state of Salzburg today.

In 119 cities and for a new 5 year term.

The first polls will open around 7am and close at noon in some smaller towns and then up until 5pm in bigger cities.

Im mostly interested in the results of my city (Zell am See) and that of the towns in the district + the results of the capital Salzburg City (155.000 people).

The weather is cold and mostly dry in the South and a bit warmer but rainy in the North.

A first trend should come in about 1 hour, when the first polls close at noon in some small towns - such as Krimml, a tourist magnet because of Europe's highest waterfalls and recovery spot for those with breath or lung disease like asthma.

http://www.wasserfaelle-krimml.at/en/be-amazed/natural-remedy

Result for mayor (https://www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/bmw/index2019.html#erg.67.1.0.0) in Krimml:

67.6% (+8.5%) Erich Czerny (VP-Inc.)
32.4%  (-8.5%) Johann Leutgeb (SP)

VP gains 3.7% in the city council (https://www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/gvw/index2019.html#erg.67.0.0.0) to 57.9%

Turnout: 79.3%


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 07:11:42 am
The FP loses 11.2% in Weipriach and therefore their relative majority in the city council there (down to 28.9%).

The VP gains 10.5% to 47.4%, while the SP gains 0.7% to 23.7%.

Turnout: 88.3% (+2.1%)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 07:32:23 am
First mayoral pickup ... for the VP, in Muhr:

57.9% (+18.6%) Hans‑Jrgen Schiefer (VP)
31.6% (-29.1%) Christian Kremser (SP)
10.5% (+10.5%) Petra Krznar (FP)

Turnout: 88.9%

The VP is doing pretty well in the small towns so far ... could be a trend.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 07:50:51 am
Another 2 smaller towns in, one with moderate SP-gains and another with big VP-gains.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 09:22:11 am
Now some bigger towns/cities will close their polls.

But it should be obvious that the VP is doing well, SP and FP not so much.

Greens, NEOS are only on the ballot in some of the big cities.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 09:25:11 am
Another mayoral pickup for the VP in Mariapfarr, where Kaiser Andreas defeats Doppler Franz (SP) by 57-36-7.

The SP loses 24%, while the VP gains 17% and the FP 7%.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 09:31:15 am
With 16 (small towns) of 119 counted, the VP gains 7%, SP -5%, FP -4% and Others +2%.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 09:34:03 am
The first big one has come in (Kuchl, with almost 6.000 eligible voters):

SP +8%
VP +4%
NEOS +2%

Greens: -11%
FP: -3%


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 09:49:41 am
The SP wins a close one in Ramingstein:

51.8% Pagitsch Gnther (SP) +3.5%
48.2% Kocher Leonhard (VP)  -3.5%

Turnout: 84.9% (+1.9%)

Pickup SP from VP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 11:24:57 am
Here in Zell am See district, the SP has gained a mayor from the VP so far while the VP gained one from the SP.

Statewide, with 54/119 cities reporting, the VP gained 3% in the combined municipal vote while the SP, FP and Greens lost 1% each.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 11:40:31 am
Christian Pewny (FP) elected new mayor of Radstadt with 70% and 30% No-votes.

SP and VP didn't find a candidate to oppose him.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 11:48:53 am
Results for Zell am See City are in and surprisingly, this will head to a runoff:

46.2%  (-19.5%) Peter Padourek (VP, incumbent)
40.8% (+11.7%) Andreas Wimmreuter (SP)
13.0%   (+7.8%) Werner Hrl (Greens)

City council:

41.8% VP (-10.5%)
39.9% SP (+9.9%)
14.3% Greens (+5.0%)
  4.0% FPS (-4.4%)

Very interesting results compared with the statewide pro-VP trend.

Huge results for SP + Greens.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 12:43:59 pm
It looks as if the VP will get their best statewide municipal election result today since WW2, with ca. 46%, an increase of 3%.

The SP will end up stable compared with 2014 and the FP down 2% and the Greens down 1%.

It's very strange that the VP never got more than 44.7% since WW2, despite Salzburg being a stronghold for them. But that probably has to do with the fact that the FP used to be much stronger in the past, getting between 14-18% between WW2 and the 1990s. Now they are at just 10%.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on March 10, 2019, 12:54:26 pm
This is a thread dedicated to Austria. Please keep discussions about politics of other countries to their respective threads.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 01:01:34 pm
This is a thread dedicated to Austria. Please keep discussions about politics of other countries to their respective threads.

I think Andi just accidentally copied it into the wrong thread ... :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on March 10, 2019, 02:02:35 pm
This is a thread dedicated to Austria. Please keep discussions about politics of other countries to their respective threads.

I think Andi just accidentally copied it into the wrong thread ... :P

Just trying to keep those pesky migrating posts from corrupting this Austrian thread.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Omega21 on March 10, 2019, 02:10:51 pm
This is a thread dedicated to Austria. Please keep discussions about politics of other countries to their respective threads.

I think Andi just accidentally copied it into the wrong thread ... :P

Just trying to keep those pesky migrating posts from corrupting this Austrian thread.

A noble cause indeed!


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2019, 03:25:45 pm
For the first time in over 50 years, the Communist Party has gained a seat in the Salzburg City Council.

They got almost 4% today, more than doubling their 2014 share.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 11, 2019, 12:15:07 am
Final results of the Salzburg municipal elections (best result for the VP since WW2):

()

SP, FP, Greens all down moderately - but the Greens also did really well in some areas.

There will be 11 mayoral runoffs in 2 weeks, for example in the capital and here in Zell am See.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2019, 12:44:14 pm
VP/FP have passed their welfare reform law today in their joint cabinet council meeting, as well as 4 Mio. of direct aid to Syria, Jordan and Libya:

Quote
The Council of Ministers today adopted the new social welfare principle. With minimum income protection, the federal government is introducing a nationwide, more accurate and equitable social assistance system.

Helping people to help themselves - groups of people who are particularly worthy of protection are better off

At the press foyer after the Council of Ministers, the Federal Chancellor outlined the cornerstones of the minimum income protection reform together with Vice-Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache, Social Affairs Minister Beate Hartinger-Klein and VP-Club Chairman August Wginger. "The minimum income is an important project that we have now successfully completed. The reform is urgently needed, as we have a massive immigration in our system. Since 2012, the number of recipients has increased sharply.

Therefore, we now have with the Social Welfare Law a package that provides for a fair and fair system of work incentives, "said the Chancellor. "Our goal is for the people who can contribute to do so and work and, on the other hand, we need a strong social system to support people who really need our help." Individual groups such as people with disabilities, and single parents are particularly worthy of protection, so they would receive more benefits.

"With the reform we want to reduce the incentives for immigration into the system who does not learn German and therefore can not integrate into the labor market does not get the full benefit." The reform creates an incentive to learn the German language " Sebastian Kurz emphasized. "We do not want people to be dependent, but to have as many as possible integrated into the labor market, to help those who can not help themselves, Christian-social is what makes people strong, not what is dependent and weak, "said the Chancellor.

Promote integration and work readiness

Vice-Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache emphasized the importance of forcing and supporting, above all, the German language skills of migrants. This is an essential prerequisite in the sense of a positive integration. "The willingness to work is the basic requirement for the receipt of benefits, the social assistance is granted for a maximum of 12 months, after which an application must be made again." The Vice Chancellor was particularly pleased that in the future, single parents will be granted a supplement of up to 103.50 per child. Persons with disabilities receive a supplement of 155 euros per month. This must be paid by the countries obligatory. "Social assistance brings more fairness and justice, and additional social benefits, such as family allowances, are naturally preserved and make Austria a family-friendly country," said Strache.

Social Minister Beate Hartinger-Klein was pleased that the reform was finally carried out after decades of discussion. "The Social Welfare Principle Law brings fair, efficient and harmonized solutions.We do not want people to remain dependent but create a model through which they can live independently again and without state help." We create binding framework conditions through nationwide harmonization At the same time, however, we are giving the countries an enormous amount of freedom within this framework in their implementing legislation, "stated the Federal Minister. The law contains a number of optional provisions to allow countries the best possible regional implementation legislation. The core of the reform is that the full benefit only pays to those who are willing to contribute.

Hartinger-Klein also informed together with the Vice Chancellor about the fact that the full property access does not come. "The grace period for home ownership remains protected and untouched for 3 years." Klubobmann August Wginger stated in his statement that the reform of social assistance is a flagship project of this government and should serve as a springboard back into the world of work.

Four million euros in emergency aid from the AKF

The Federal Chancellor also informed about the provision of four million euros from the Foreign Disaster Fund (AKF) for the needy people in Jordan, Libya and Syria. "We use the funds to help organizations like the Red Cross and UNHCR to help people on the ground and to create better living conditions through demining and clearance," says Sebastian Kurz.

https://orf.at/stories/3114977


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2019, 12:55:10 pm
Funny, but not really surprising fact, about the Salzburg municipal elections on Sunday:

Turnout in many small towns ranged from 80% to 94%, even though they mostly close at noon already or at 1 or 2pm.

In the capital, Salzburg City, turnout was only 48% (the lowest among all cities), even though polls were open the longest, until 5pm ...

Lazy city people.

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/gvw/index2019.html#rang.5.0.0.1


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2019, 03:00:57 pm
The Greens are the last party to choose their candidates for the EU elections this weekend and with Green Party leader Werner Kogler running for 1st on the list, the Greens will soon need a new party leader as well if Kogler is elected to the EU parliament. Kogler has said he will take the seat if elected.

Based on their recent election results and rising poll numbers, it is even possible that the Greens not only get 1, but 2 seats in the EU parliament (popular TV cook Sarah Wiener is running for the 2nd list spot).

So, if Kogler (who has done a good job in re-structuring the Austrian Greens after their defeat in 2017) is elected to the EU parliament, these are the most likely candidates for Green Party leader (and there will be a huge generational shift in this case because Kogler is 57):

Nina Tomaselli (Vorarlberg) & Stefan Kaineder (Upper Austria), both 33 years old, both are already MPs in their states and both are already deputy party leaders for Kogler at the federal level.

()   ()

Kaineder is seen as a "rising star", because of his theology studies and focus on agriculture and food safety, which could attract conservative voters back to the Greens.

Tomaselli is more focused on the social topics like poverty prevention and women's issues. If she follows Kogler, all 4 opposition leaders in Austria would be female.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2019, 03:42:21 pm
This is a very Austrian political story:

Austria to introduce rules for hikers after cow-trampling death

()

Quote
The Austrian chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, has announced that the country will introduce a legally binding code of conduct for hikers who visit its picturesque mountain pastures in response to the death of a German tourist who was trampled by cows.

After the incident which took place in Tyrol in 2014 a court last month ordered the farmer who owned the cattle to pay 500.000 euros in damages to the 45-year-old victims family.

That caused outrage among farmers and consternation among the public, partly because the victim was walking her dog on a lead attached to her waist. Cows can charge to protect their calves when they see dogs, and hikers are advised to release their dogs in such cases, which she did not do.

We will lay out clearly in the code of conduct what is expected of people who use mountain pastures, Kurz told a news conference.

Kurz did not provide specifics but did suggest that dogs would be an important part of the new code, adding that problem cases have almost exclusively involved dogs.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/11/austria-to-introduce-rules-for-hikers-after-cow-trampling-death


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: rob in cal on March 14, 2019, 11:45:36 am
  Tender, how do the various parties feel about their results in  the Salzburg area elections?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2019, 12:45:05 pm
 Tender, how do the various parties feel about their results in the Salzburg area elections?

VP = very happy (best result since WW2), strengthened their already-dominant position
FP = mixed, won a mayor, but only because VP/SP found no candidate, otherwise they lost
SP = mixed, didn't mobilize in small towns and the capital Salzburg, but gained in other big cities
Greens = (very) happy, because they got respectable results and sometimes gained ground
KP = very happy, gained a city council seat in the capital for the first time in 57 years
NEOS = neutral, because they didn't run in a lot of towns (municipals are not so important for them)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 16, 2019, 02:22:09 am
New "Profil" magazine poll:

34% VP
25% SP
24% FP
  8% NEOS
  5% Greens
  2% NOW
  2% Others

Chancellor vote:

40% Sebastian Kurz (VP-Inc.)
15% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SP)
13% Heinz-Christian Strache (FP)
  4% Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)

"What is your opinion about the student strikes against climate change ?"

57% justified
40% not justified

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190316_OTS0001/profil-umfrage-kanzlerfrage-kurz-zieht-davon


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 16, 2019, 10:09:21 am
Turns out my precinct had a 60% majority for SP+Greens in the mayoral vote last Sunday and would have elected the SP candidate as mayor already in Round 1 with 53%, unlike the city as a whole where a runoff will be held next Sunday. My precinct was 12% more SP than the city as a whole.

My precinct also had twice the support for the SP as the district or state (where the SP only got some 26-27%).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2019, 12:20:16 am
Government study: Austrias Muslims more than twice as likely as non-Muslims to hold anti-Semitic views

Quote
Austrias Muslim residents are more than twice as likely as non-Muslims to endorse anti-Semitic statements, according to a survey commissioned by the Austrian government.

Arab respondents, who made up half of the Muslim group, were slightly more likely than Turks, who made up the other half, to agree with the statements.

Wolfgang Sobotka, president of the lower house of the Austrian parliament, presented the results of the Anti-Semitism in Austria 2018″ study in Vienna last week. It surveyed 2,731 respondents older than 16 including 604 Muslims.

()

* Ten percent of non-Muslims agreed with the statement that a lot is exaggerated in news about concentration camps from the Holocaust. That figure was 41 percent among Turks and 35 among Arabs.

* Asked to react to the statement that Jews control international commerce, 39 percent of non-Muslims concurred. The figures were 63 and 64 percent among the Turkish and Arab groups.

* Asked whether they agree with a statement blaming anti-Semitic persecution of Jews on their own behavior, 19 percent of non-Muslims agreed. In the Muslim group, 45 percent of the respondents endorsed the statement.

* In the Turkish group, 28 percent agreed that Jews still need to answer for the murder of Jesus. The figure was 17 among Arabs and 13 among non-Muslims in the study.

European governments rarely commission such aggregated surveys, which some perceive as discriminatory and which are illegal in some European states.

Karoline Edtstadler, state secretary in the Ministry of the Interior, said in a statement about the report: We will focus anti-racism efforts on immigrant children, the TRT Turkish news agency reported Tuesday.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/austrias-muslims-twice-as-likely-as-non-muslims-to-hold-anti-semitic-views


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2019, 12:26:27 am
A new Research Affairs poll has the FP overtaking the SP for 2nd:

()

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hammer-Umfrage-FPOe-ueberholt-SPOe/372845510


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2019, 01:12:39 pm
Turns out my precinct had a 60% majority for SP+Greens in the mayoral vote last Sunday and would have elected the SP candidate as mayor already in Round 1 with 53%, unlike the city as a whole where a runoff will be held next Sunday. My precinct was 12% more SP than the city as a whole.

My precinct also had twice the support for the SP as the district or state (where the SP only got some 26-27%).

Tomorrow:

Mayoral runoff here in Zell am See (SP could take the mayor from the VP, after SP+Greens already got the majority back from VP+FP in the city council). This would end 10 years of VP government here. I still expect it to be close though, the VP usually does better with mobilizing their voters.

Mayoral runoffs also in the capital Salzburg City and 9 other big cities.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: RedPrometheus on March 23, 2019, 01:13:40 pm
Government study: Austrias Muslims more than twice as likely as non-Muslims to hold anti-Semitic views

Quote
Austrias Muslim residents are more than twice as likely as non-Muslims to endorse anti-Semitic statements, according to a survey commissioned by the Austrian government.

Arab respondents, who made up half of the Muslim group, were slightly more likely than Turks, who made up the other half, to agree with the statements.

Wolfgang Sobotka, president of the lower house of the Austrian parliament, presented the results of the Anti-Semitism in Austria 2018″ study in Vienna last week. It surveyed 2,731 respondents older than 16 including 604 Muslims.

()

* Ten percent of non-Muslims agreed with the statement that a lot is exaggerated in news about concentration camps from the Holocaust. That figure was 41 percent among Turks and 35 among Arabs.

* Asked to react to the statement that Jews control international commerce, 39 percent of non-Muslims concurred. The figures were 63 and 64 percent among the Turkish and Arab groups.

* Asked whether they agree with a statement blaming anti-Semitic persecution of Jews on their own behavior, 19 percent of non-Muslims agreed. In the Muslim group, 45 percent of the respondents endorsed the statement.

* In the Turkish group, 28 percent agreed that Jews still need to answer for the murder of Jesus. The figure was 17 among Arabs and 13 among non-Muslims in the study.

European governments rarely commission such aggregated surveys, which some perceive as discriminatory and which are illegal in some European states.

Karoline Edtstadler, state secretary in the Ministry of the Interior, said in a statement about the report: We will focus anti-racism efforts on immigrant children, the TRT Turkish news agency reported Tuesday.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/austrias-muslims-twice-as-likely-as-non-muslims-to-hold-anti-semitic-views

Quelle surprise.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: RedPrometheus on March 23, 2019, 01:14:16 pm
A new Research Affairs poll has the FP overtaking the SP for 2nd:

()

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hammer-Umfrage-FPOe-ueberholt-SPOe/372845510

Any explanation for this development?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2019, 01:18:14 pm
A new Research Affairs poll has the FP overtaking the SP for 2nd:

()

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hammer-Umfrage-FPOe-ueberholt-SPOe/372845510

Any explanation for this development?

Probably margin of error movement.

But on the other hand, the FP has been quite disciplined in recent months - while the SP is still struggling from internal divisions/intrigues from the Kern-era. Just recently, the more right-wing new Governor of Burgenland and Defense Minister under Kern, Doskozil, said he's with the VP-FP government to introduce a preventive imprisonment for criminal asylum seekers so that they cannot commit additional heavy crimes. SP-leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner then had to back-pedal and to clarify that the SP does not support this measure.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2019, 03:30:56 am
A new SORA state election poll for Vorarlberg (votes in September) confirms that Vorarlberg is Austria's Utah (SORA is also Austria's "exit" pollster for the public ORF TV):

45% VP (+3% compared with the 2014 state election)
21% FP (-2%)
13% Greens (-4%)
11% NEOS (+4%)
  9% SP (n.c.)
  1% Others (-1%)

EU election in Vorarlberg:

43% VP (+15%)
20% FP (+3%)
14% SP (+3%)
12% Greens (-11%)
10% NEOS (-5%)
  1% NOW (+1%)
  0% Others (-6%)

Vorarlberg has a VP-Green government.

Voters approve of the VP-Green government by a 77-18 margin.

Voters think the state is on the right track by a 72-20 margin.

Voters disapprove of the federal VP-FP government by a 30-65 margin (!).

https://www.vol.at/umfrage-zur-landtagswahl-2019-das-rennen-um-platz/6140227


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2019, 09:42:45 am
Turns out my precinct had a 60% majority for SP+Greens in the mayoral vote last Sunday and would have elected the SP candidate as mayor already in Round 1 with 53%, unlike the city as a whole where a runoff will be held next Sunday. My precinct was 12% more SP than the city as a whole.

My precinct also had twice the support for the SP as the district or state (where the SP only got some 26-27%).

Tomorrow:

Mayoral runoff here in Zell am See (SP could take the mayor from the VP, after SP+Greens already got the majority back from VP+FP in the city council). This would end 10 years of VP government here. I still expect it to be close though, the VP usually does better with mobilizing their voters.

Mayoral runoffs also in the capital Salzburg City and 9 other big cities.

Polls are now closing for the 11 mayoral runoffs.

45% of eligible voters in the state can vote again today, despite only 11/119 cities having runoffs. That's mostly because big cities are having the runoffs.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2019, 09:59:38 am
HUGE upset in the city of Strawalchen (SP pickup from VP):

Tanja Kreer (SP) defeats Liselotte Winklhofer (LIS, ex-VP) by a margin of 58.7-41.3, despite the VP endorsing Winklhofer's independent candidacy. In the first round, the VP candidate + Winklhofer got 56% combined.

()

The city has been a VP-stronghold so far (the VP mayor got elected in 2004 and 2009 with 67% of the vote each and in 2014 with 61%).

Also: First mayor for the SP in that city since WW2.

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/bmw/index2019.html#erg.116.1.0.0


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2019, 10:09:09 am
Polls here in Zell am See have closed now.

I'm more and more confident that the VP-mayor could be defeated ... we'll see in ca. 30 minutes.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2019, 10:41:40 am
With 100% of the votes counted in Salzburg City (the capital), the incumbent mayor Harald Preuner (VP) has defeated SP-candidate Bernhard Auinger by a 56-44 margin.

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2019, 11:16:50 am
Polls here in Zell am See have closed now.

I'm more and more confident that the VP-mayor could be defeated ... we'll see in ca. 30 minutes.

BOOM !

Incumbent VP-mayor Peter Padourek has been defeated by a huge margin.

The new mayor of Zell am See is Andreas Wimmreuter (SP), who won by a 58-42 margin (First round was 46% VP, 41% SP, 13% Greens).

()

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/bmw/index2019.html#erg.137.1.0.0


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2019, 11:21:48 am
The SP has also picked up Hallein (the 2nd largest city in the state) from the VP, with Alexander Stangassinger defeating Maximilian Klappacher by a 56-44 margin.

The SP also picked up Mattsee from the VP ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2019, 11:32:09 am
Not a bad result today for the SP, except for the capital.

And here in the district of Zell am See, the overall results for the SP are even better:

The SP gained 2% in the combined municipal council vote and gained 2 mayors (with the biggest prize being the mayor of Zell am See city and the city council there, which has been under VP control for 10 years now).

It seems the excessive tourism, the high rent/apartment costs, the exploding secondary residency permits for foreign wealthy tourists and the traffic situation did the VP in.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2019, 01:04:21 pm
In Oberndorf, the SP candidate Georg Djundja has defeated the VP candidate Sabine Mayrhofer by 56-44 and will become the first directly elected openly gay mayor in Salzburg.

()

()

Oberndorf is famous with tourists for the "Silent Night" chapel (in the background), where the Christmas song originates.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on March 25, 2019, 07:14:45 pm
In Oberndorf, the SP candidate Georg Djundja has defeated the VP candidate Sabine Mayrhofer by 56-44 and will become the first directly elected openly gay mayor in Salzburg.

()

At first I thought it's Bushie with his Black "children" and without his pedo staches.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 28, 2019, 03:12:02 am
For the first time since 1974, Austria had a budget surplus in 2018:

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/120562.html

That's according to the Maastricht definition, which includes the federal government budget, the state, the municipal and social insurance budgets.

Debt as a % of GDP dropped by more than 4% to 73.8% last year.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 28, 2019, 01:20:28 pm
For the first time since 1974, Austria had a budget surplus in 2018:

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/120562.html

That's according to the Maastricht definition, which includes the federal government budget, the state, the municipal and social insurance budgets.

Debt as a % of GDP dropped by more than 4% to 73.8% last year.

If Jan. 2019 is an indicator, the budget situation in 2019 will be even better:

In January, Bavaria paid back 1.3 billion to Austria for the bad bank HETA and income + VAT tax revenues are also up by 6%.

It seems 2019 could see a budget surplus of 1% of GDP, far more than VP-FP are planning.

Debt will very likely drop to below 70% of GDP again and below 60% by 2022.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on March 30, 2019, 06:29:34 am
How Austria's big cities are currently being governed (latest mayor and city council results):

()

Pretty much an SPVP thing, but the Greens won Innsbruck recently and the FP is in charge of the medium-sized city of Wels.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 01, 2019, 01:48:38 pm
As I have posted elsewhere already (in the Christchurch attack thread), the FP is in a bit of trouble recently:

The National Security Council will meet tonight, initiated by the SP and Now. VP+FP have to explain to them the connections and investigation details/updates of the New Zealand terrorist to the far-right Identitarians. The Identitarians are a "talent agency" for the FP and many of their members are recruited by the FP.

()

Martin Sellner, their leader, is one of the most influential right-wing extremists in Europe and has previously said that he only received a 1.500 donation from the NZ terrorist and there were no further talks between them. But in a NYT interview, Sellner recently said that "there might have been a few emails back and forth between them and that he forwarded Tarrant's email to his huge follower base."

State prosecution have raided Sellner's apartment recently and seized his IT hardware for examination and launched an effort to dissolve the Identitarians.

Over the weekend it also turned out that the FP and the Identitarians share a villa in Linz as office space.

Also, many western intelligence services are now very reluctant to share their data with the Kickl-FP-Interior Ministry because of this stuff and want to forward their data directly to Chancellor Kurz instead.

()

https://derstandard.at/2000100581625/Pruefung-der-Aufloesung-von-Identitaeren-laeuft


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 01, 2019, 02:12:48 pm
Liberal NEOS-leader Beate Meinl-Reisinger has given birth to a baby girl over the weekend:

() ()

She's the 2nd party leader (together with FP-Strache) to get a child in the last few months and the 3rd (incl. cabinet members) over the past year.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 02, 2019, 10:49:29 am
IFES/Demox poll:

I would be strongly/somewhat annoyed if the following groups of people were my neighbors.

()

LOL @ the fact that 1% of Austrians are annoyed to have Austrians as their neighbors.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: rob in cal on April 03, 2019, 11:56:37 am
  Tender, I wonder where other eastern Europeans would fit in the poll, like Czechs, Hungarians and Poles. Probably in the high single digits?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2019, 12:59:34 pm
  Tender, I wonder where other eastern Europeans would fit in the poll, like Czechs, Hungarians and Poles. Probably in the high single digits?

I would assume so. They are seen roughly as former Yugoslavs (11%).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2019, 01:00:53 pm
VIENNA, April 3 (Reuters) - Austria has increased the size of its planned tax targeting tech companies, to 5 percent of their advertising revenue in the country, from 3 percent previously, Finance Minister Hartwig Loeger said in an interview with ORF radio on Wednesday.

The planned levy, which starts next year, is part of a package of measures targeting large tech companies including Google, Amazon and Facebook, which Austrias right-wing government accuses of not paying their fair share in taxes.

The planned measures also include lowering the threshold for value-added tax to apply to packages entering the country, as previously announced. Loeger told ORF the various measures were expected to raise more than 200 million euros ($224.44 million) a year.

https://www.reuters.com/article/austria-economy-digital-tax/austria-increasing-size-of-planned-digital-tax-finance-minister-says-idUSV9N1YO002

Good.

Internet companies need to pay their fair share of taxes.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2019, 11:29:41 pm
Very good results for the Faction of Socialist Unionists (FSG) in the Austrian union employee elections:

https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/fsg-baut-absolute-mehrheit-in-aknoe-aus/400456069

The states of Vorarlberg, Tyrol and Salzburg have already voted a few weeks ago and now another 5 states have released their results and the FSG maintained their 60-75% majorities and even gained ground in some states, such as Upper Austria, Lower Austria and Vienna.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 04, 2019, 12:30:31 pm
The Identitarian problem continued today for VP-FP (only for the FP of course):

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nach-telefonat-kurz-kunasek-erneut-sperre-im-heer-fuer-identitaere/400456702

The "Standard" newspaper uncovered recently that the Austrian Army under the FP Defense Minister Kunasek has stopped blacklisting and therefore banning far-right people from joining the army, as was the case for decades - so that these people do not infiltrate the army and get weapons training for free.

Chancellor Kurz and President Van der Bellen then called Kunasek today and lectured him that extremism has no place in the Army, which he then also told the media and also announced that the ban has been put into effect again.

All of this is also campaign tactics for the upcoming EU elections of course: Kurz is sounding like the tough Chancellor guy who wants to show the voters who's boss and who's not. Experts think that this will help the VP in the elections, while the FP will fall back in the polls.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: DavidB. on April 04, 2019, 01:12:13 pm
If I were an Austrian I'd be very unhappy with the ongoing VP bullying of the FP. Does Kurz want to return to governing with the SP and get electorally demolished for pushing the same old leftist line on immigration and integration? At this point Strache should threaten to pull the plug if the VP continue to do this.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 04, 2019, 01:18:07 pm
If I were an Austrian I'd be very unhappy with the ongoing VP bullying of the FP. Does Kurz want to return to governing with the SP and get electorally demolished for pushing the same old leftist line on immigration and integration? At this point Strache should threaten to pull the plug if the VP continue to do this.

I don't see a problem if the FP cuts their ties with the most extreme fringes of society, as long as they are in government.

Why do you think the VP is "bullying" them ? It's just that Kurz wants them to be within the legal framework, so that they can continue to govern without any harm domestically and abroad.

It's better for both of them. The FP will continue to poll above 20% anyway as an anti-establishment party, even if they get rid of their Nazi elements within.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 04, 2019, 01:31:45 pm
Tomorrow we should get a new Research Affairs poll, which could show first effects of the Identitarian/Tarrant fallout for the FP ...

Research Affairs tends to be a bit biased anyway in favour of the FP (but not by a lot), so if the FP is at 24-25% tomorrow, everything is fine, 22-23% would be a modest loss because of the issue and everything below 22% would be a major drop.

In general, FP-voters don't give much of a damn about these Identitarian things and the base has become die-hard over the past years, so I don't expect the polls to change a lot.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 04, 2019, 11:09:43 pm
Here are the results of the new Research Affairs poll and it shows the FP already dropping:

()

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Identitaere-schaden-der-FPOe/374872829

Poll was conducted March 28-April 3, so it does not capture the full fallout for the FP yet. I think they will go down to 20% in other new polls soon.

Just today, it emerged that Identitarian movement leader Martin Sellner put swastika stickers on a synagogue in 2006 as a 17-year old, for which he had to perform 100 hours of community service at a Jewish cemetary. Sellner said he was a neo-Nazi back then, but has "changed a lot" since then.

()

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5607530/Identitaere_Martin-Sellner-klebte-Hakenkreuze-auf-Synagoge


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 04, 2019, 11:19:33 pm
Austria far-right activist condemned over swastika

()

Quote
Austria's chancellor has described as "disgusting" revelations that a far-right activist linked to the New Zealand mosque attacks suspect put a swastika on a synagogue when he was 17. Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said he would not tolerate "neo-Nazi activities". Martin Sellner of the Identitarian Movement Austria said the incident had been long ago and he had since changed. Last month investigators raided his home after he said he had been given money by the Christchurch suspect. But Mr Sellner, 30, denied any involvement in the New Zealand attacks. Fifty people died and dozens more wounded in the 15 March shootings. Australian Brenton Tarrant, a 28-year-old self-proclaimed white supremacist, has been charged over the attacks. Mr Kurz - who campaigned on a harsh anti-immigrant message and is governing in coalition with the far-right Freedom Party - said that as chancellor it was his duty to "fight all forms of extremism to preserve free and liberal law-based state". It follows a report in Austria's Kleine Zeitung that Mr Sellner had admitted to police in 2006 that he and a companion stuck a swastika poster on a synagogue in the town of Baden bei Wien, to the south-west of the capital Vienna. The newspaper quoted Mr Sellner's companion as saying the pair had decided to carry out the act after British Holocaust denier David Irving was arrested in Austria in 2005 and jailed. Denying the Holocaust is illegal in Austria. Mr Sellner had also provided a badge saying "aryan youth" and an anti-Turkish poster, his companion said at the time. Mr Sellner appeared regretful and was told to carry out 100 hours of community service in a Jewish cemetery, the newspaper report said. Responding to the report on Twitter, Mr Sellner said it was no secret that he had been active in the neo-Nazi scene when he was younger but had "left that behind a long time ago". He had never taken part in acts of violence, he added. Mr Sellner has become one of the most prominent young activists of the far right in Europe. Austrian media say the far-right Freedom Party has come under pressure to distance itself from the Identitarian Movement Austria (IB) following the revelations that Brenton Tarrant donated about 1,500 (1,290; $1,700) to the IB.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47822454

David, you cannot defend this. The FP needs to cut all ties with these people to remain a "responsible" coalition party. Kurz is right here to demand a red line and zero tolerance.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 06, 2019, 12:20:24 pm
The FP failed yesterday with a lawsuit against Austria (!), when a judge threw out their case for a 4 million compensation for the 2016 presidential election runoff, which had to be repeated (... mostly, because the FP didn't accept the close results).

Austrian voters found that lawsuit highly absurd, as a new ATV poll showed, with voters being opposed to a refund for the FP by a 60-19 margin.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/bp-wahl-2016-kein-anspruch-auf-schadenersatz-fuer-die-fpoe/400458106

The FP and Strache also wanted to put to rest the Identitarian controversy today at the Upper Austria state convention, when Strache said that "A red line has been drawn by us with regards to the Identitarians, all ties with them have been cut, we don't want extremists in our party, or any connections with Martin Sellner, that the Left tries to construct something against the party by linking them to a crazy NZ mass murderer and that he will defend his party like a father would against all attacks."

Chancellor Kurz applauded Strache's remarks today at the FP convention.

()

BTW:

Manfred Haimbuchner, the Upper Austrian FP-leader and most likely successor to Strache, was re-elected with more than 97% of the delegate votes.

https://orf.at/stories/3117858


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: PSOL on April 09, 2019, 01:18:28 pm
UK, Dutch intelligence limit Austria data flow over Russian ties:MP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-security/uk-dutch-spy-agencies-curb-intel-flow-to-austria-over-russia-ties-mp-idUSKCN1RL2CM)
Quote
British and Dutch spy agencies have heavily restricted the amount of intelligence they share with Austria, mainly because of ties between the ruling far-right Freedom Party and Russia, an Austrian opposition lawmaker said on Tuesday.

...

Kurz has said he plans to make the BVT report to him and FPO Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache although it would still remain part of the Interior Ministry.

The BVT is not currently taking part in working groups of the Club of Bern, a network of European intelligence agencies, because of concerns among members about a club memo that was leaked to an Austrian newspaper, the head of the BVT said last week. He added, however, that Austria remains a member.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 09, 2019, 11:09:34 pm
UK, Dutch intelligence limit Austria data flow over Russian ties:MP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-security/uk-dutch-spy-agencies-curb-intel-flow-to-austria-over-russia-ties-mp-idUSKCN1RL2CM)
Quote
British and Dutch spy agencies have heavily restricted the amount of intelligence they share with Austria, mainly because of ties between the ruling far-right Freedom Party and Russia, an Austrian opposition lawmaker said on Tuesday.

...

Kurz has said he plans to make the BVT report to him and FPO Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache although it would still remain part of the Interior Ministry.

The BVT is not currently taking part in working groups of the Club of Bern, a network of European intelligence agencies, because of concerns among members about a club memo that was leaked to an Austrian newspaper, the head of the BVT said last week. He added, however, that Austria remains a member.

Yeah.

But it would be better if foreign intelligence groups would still warn us if for example they have knowledge of a coming terror attack in Austria. Otherwise it would look kinda bad on their part ...

Plus: we already knew in 2017 that they would limit their flow to the FP-led Interior Ministry because of their pro-Russia ties. Nothing new really. They should just report to Kurz instead (not even Strache, Kurz can tell Strache the important parts) and the case is solved. The FP needs to be sidelined here.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: PSOL on April 10, 2019, 10:15:24 am
UK, Dutch intelligence limit Austria data flow over Russian ties:MP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-security/uk-dutch-spy-agencies-curb-intel-flow-to-austria-over-russia-ties-mp-idUSKCN1RL2CM)
Quote
British and Dutch spy agencies have heavily restricted the amount of intelligence they share with Austria, mainly because of ties between the ruling far-right Freedom Party and Russia, an Austrian opposition lawmaker said on Tuesday.

...

Kurz has said he plans to make the BVT report to him and FPO Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache although it would still remain part of the Interior Ministry.

The BVT is not currently taking part in working groups of the Club of Bern, a network of European intelligence agencies, because of concerns among members about a club memo that was leaked to an Austrian newspaper, the head of the BVT said last week. He added, however, that Austria remains a member.

Yeah.

But it would be better if foreign intelligence groups would still warn us if for example they have knowledge of a coming terror attack in Austria. Otherwise it would look kinda bad on their part ...

Plus: we already knew in 2017 that they would limit their flow to the FPÖ-led Interior Ministry because of their pro-Russia ties. Nothing new really. They should just report to Kurz instead (not even Strache, Kurz can tell Strache the important parts) and the case is solved. The FPÖ needs to be sidelined here.
The important bits are the stuff they don’t want to give to the Russians. It simple really, either get woke or get cast in the dark, NATO isn’t budging to put itself in risk just because you democratically voted in fifth-columnists.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 10, 2019, 10:23:59 am
UK, Dutch intelligence limit Austria data flow over Russian ties:MP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-security/uk-dutch-spy-agencies-curb-intel-flow-to-austria-over-russia-ties-mp-idUSKCN1RL2CM)
Quote
British and Dutch spy agencies have heavily restricted the amount of intelligence they share with Austria, mainly because of ties between the ruling far-right Freedom Party and Russia, an Austrian opposition lawmaker said on Tuesday.

...

Kurz has said he plans to make the BVT report to him and FPO Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache although it would still remain part of the Interior Ministry.

The BVT is not currently taking part in working groups of the Club of Bern, a network of European intelligence agencies, because of concerns among members about a club memo that was leaked to an Austrian newspaper, the head of the BVT said last week. He added, however, that Austria remains a member.

Yeah.

But it would be better if foreign intelligence groups would still warn us if for example they have knowledge of a coming terror attack in Austria. Otherwise it would look kinda bad on their part ...

Plus: we already knew in 2017 that they would limit their flow to the FP-led Interior Ministry because of their pro-Russia ties. Nothing new really. They should just report to Kurz instead (not even Strache, Kurz can tell Strache the important parts) and the case is solved. The FP needs to be sidelined here.
The important bits are the stuff they dont want to give to the Russians. It simple really, either get woke or get cast in the dark, NATO isnt budging to put itself in risk just because you democratically voted in fifth-columnists.

Thats why the easiest solution for this would be to report the Russia-related stuff only to Chancellor Kurz and the remaining stuff to the FP-led Interior Ministry ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: PSOL on April 10, 2019, 10:35:04 am
UK, Dutch intelligence limit Austria data flow over Russian ties:MP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-security/uk-dutch-spy-agencies-curb-intel-flow-to-austria-over-russia-ties-mp-idUSKCN1RL2CM)
Quote
British and Dutch spy agencies have heavily restricted the amount of intelligence they share with Austria, mainly because of ties between the ruling far-right Freedom Party and Russia, an Austrian opposition lawmaker said on Tuesday.

...

Kurz has said he plans to make the BVT report to him and FPO Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache although it would still remain part of the Interior Ministry.

The BVT is not currently taking part in working groups of the Club of Bern, a network of European intelligence agencies, because of concerns among members about a club memo that was leaked to an Austrian newspaper, the head of the BVT said last week. He added, however, that Austria remains a member.

Yeah.

But it would be better if foreign intelligence groups would still warn us if for example they have knowledge of a coming terror attack in Austria. Otherwise it would look kinda bad on their part ...

Plus: we already knew in 2017 that they would limit their flow to the FP-led Interior Ministry because of their pro-Russia ties. Nothing new really. They should just report to Kurz instead (not even Strache, Kurz can tell Strache the important parts) and the case is solved. The FP needs to be sidelined here.
The important bits are the stuff they dont want to give to the Russians. It simple really, either get woke or get cast in the dark, NATO isnt budging to put itself in risk just because you democratically voted in fifth-columnists.

Thats why the easiest solution for this would be to report the Russia-related stuff only to Chancellor Kurz and the remaining stuff to the FP-led Interior Ministry ...
And if some of that info runs tangentially to Russian stuff? For all purposes, leaving Austria in the dark is a good move so as to not have a leaky foundation.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 10, 2019, 10:44:29 am
UK, Dutch intelligence limit Austria data flow over Russian ties:MP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-security/uk-dutch-spy-agencies-curb-intel-flow-to-austria-over-russia-ties-mp-idUSKCN1RL2CM)
Quote
British and Dutch spy agencies have heavily restricted the amount of intelligence they share with Austria, mainly because of ties between the ruling far-right Freedom Party and Russia, an Austrian opposition lawmaker said on Tuesday.

...

Kurz has said he plans to make the BVT report to him and FPO Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache although it would still remain part of the Interior Ministry.

The BVT is not currently taking part in working groups of the Club of Bern, a network of European intelligence agencies, because of concerns among members about a club memo that was leaked to an Austrian newspaper, the head of the BVT said last week. He added, however, that Austria remains a member.

Yeah.

But it would be better if foreign intelligence groups would still warn us if for example they have knowledge of a coming terror attack in Austria. Otherwise it would look kinda bad on their part ...

Plus: we already knew in 2017 that they would limit their flow to the FP-led Interior Ministry because of their pro-Russia ties. Nothing new really. They should just report to Kurz instead (not even Strache, Kurz can tell Strache the important parts) and the case is solved. The FP needs to be sidelined here.
The important bits are the stuff they dont want to give to the Russians. It simple really, either get woke or get cast in the dark, NATO isnt budging to put itself in risk just because you democratically voted in fifth-columnists.

Thats why the easiest solution for this would be to report the Russia-related stuff only to Chancellor Kurz and the remaining stuff to the FP-led Interior Ministry ...
And if some of that info runs tangentially to Russian stuff? For all purposes, leaving Austria in the dark is a good move so as to not have a leaky foundation.

In this case, the BVT needs to be put under the supervision of the Chancellery, instead of the Interior Ministry. Problem: the FP would not vote for it unless Kurz threatens to blow up the coalition.

Either that, or Kurz should receive the full data load from abroad. Leaving Austria in the dark about the Russians is not cool.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: PSOL on April 10, 2019, 11:07:46 am
UK, Dutch intelligence limit Austria data flow over Russian ties:MP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-security/uk-dutch-spy-agencies-curb-intel-flow-to-austria-over-russia-ties-mp-idUSKCN1RL2CM)
Quote
British and Dutch spy agencies have heavily restricted the amount of intelligence they share with Austria, mainly because of ties between the ruling far-right Freedom Party and Russia, an Austrian opposition lawmaker said on Tuesday.

...

Kurz has said he plans to make the BVT report to him and FPO Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache although it would still remain part of the Interior Ministry.

The BVT is not currently taking part in working groups of the Club of Bern, a network of European intelligence agencies, because of concerns among members about a club memo that was leaked to an Austrian newspaper, the head of the BVT said last week. He added, however, that Austria remains a member.

Yeah.

But it would be better if foreign intelligence groups would still warn us if for example they have knowledge of a coming terror attack in Austria. Otherwise it would look kinda bad on their part ...

Plus: we already knew in 2017 that they would limit their flow to the FP-led Interior Ministry because of their pro-Russia ties. Nothing new really. They should just report to Kurz instead (not even Strache, Kurz can tell Strache the important parts) and the case is solved. The FP needs to be sidelined here.
The important bits are the stuff they dont want to give to the Russians. It simple really, either get woke or get cast in the dark, NATO isnt budging to put itself in risk just because you democratically voted in fifth-columnists.

Thats why the easiest solution for this would be to report the Russia-related stuff only to Chancellor Kurz and the remaining stuff to the FP-led Interior Ministry ...
And if some of that info runs tangentially to Russian stuff? For all purposes, leaving Austria in the dark is a good move so as to not have a leaky foundation.

In this case, the BVT needs to be put under the supervision of the Chancellery, instead of the Interior Ministry. Problem: the FP would not vote for it unless Kurz threatens to blow up the coalition.

Either that, or Kurz should receive the full data load from abroad. Leaving Austria in the dark about the Russians is not cool.
Well then isolate them, then. Or else wait till the next election and form a new coalition government with SP or Nes or something.

Its been clear that FP is a security risk, from the inside link by Neonazis and their strong ties, almost allegiance to Russia. Or risk being in the dark for quite some time.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Omega21 on April 10, 2019, 02:55:34 pm
UK, Dutch intelligence limit Austria data flow over Russian ties:MP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-security/uk-dutch-spy-agencies-curb-intel-flow-to-austria-over-russia-ties-mp-idUSKCN1RL2CM)
Quote
British and Dutch spy agencies have heavily restricted the amount of intelligence they share with Austria, mainly because of ties between the ruling far-right Freedom Party and Russia, an Austrian opposition lawmaker said on Tuesday.

...

Kurz has said he plans to make the BVT report to him and FPO Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache although it would still remain part of the Interior Ministry.

The BVT is not currently taking part in working groups of the Club of Bern, a network of European intelligence agencies, because of concerns among members about a club memo that was leaked to an Austrian newspaper, the head of the BVT said last week. He added, however, that Austria remains a member.

Yeah.

But it would be better if foreign intelligence groups would still warn us if for example they have knowledge of a coming terror attack in Austria. Otherwise it would look kinda bad on their part ...

Plus: we already knew in 2017 that they would limit their flow to the FP-led Interior Ministry because of their pro-Russia ties. Nothing new really. They should just report to Kurz instead (not even Strache, Kurz can tell Strache the important parts) and the case is solved. The FP needs to be sidelined here.
The important bits are the stuff they dont want to give to the Russians. It simple really, either get woke or get cast in the dark, NATO isnt budging to put itself in risk just because you democratically voted in fifth-columnists.

Thats why the easiest solution for this would be to report the Russia-related stuff only to Chancellor Kurz and the remaining stuff to the FP-led Interior Ministry ...
And if some of that info runs tangentially to Russian stuff? For all purposes, leaving Austria in the dark is a good move so as to not have a leaky foundation.

In this case, the BVT needs to be put under the supervision of the Chancellery, instead of the Interior Ministry. Problem: the FP would not vote for it unless Kurz threatens to blow up the coalition.

Either that, or Kurz should receive the full data load from abroad. Leaving Austria in the dark about the Russians is not cool.
Well then isolate them, then. Or else wait till the next election and form a new coalition government with SP or Nes or something.

Its been clear that FP is a security risk, from the inside link by Neonazis and their strong ties, almost allegiance to Russia. Or risk being in the dark for quite some time.

Austria is arguably now safer as it is not importing new threats DUE to the FP.

Your loving SP imported the threats in the first place, and you cannot factually dispute that. :)

Plus, American paranoia makes me cringe. In a lot of things, the US and Russia are no different, although the US offers vastly more freedom to its citizens. You both reject the International court and you both overthrow/prop-up regimes (Saudi Arabia, Panama, Iran), so please stop acting like you are the definition of justice and honour.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: PSOL on April 10, 2019, 05:57:34 pm
UK, Dutch intelligence limit Austria data flow over Russian ties:MP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-security/uk-dutch-spy-agencies-curb-intel-flow-to-austria-over-russia-ties-mp-idUSKCN1RL2CM)
Quote
British and Dutch spy agencies have heavily restricted the amount of intelligence they share with Austria, mainly because of ties between the ruling far-right Freedom Party and Russia, an Austrian opposition lawmaker said on Tuesday.

...

Kurz has said he plans to make the BVT report to him and FPO Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache although it would still remain part of the Interior Ministry.

The BVT is not currently taking part in working groups of the Club of Bern, a network of European intelligence agencies, because of concerns among members about a club memo that was leaked to an Austrian newspaper, the head of the BVT said last week. He added, however, that Austria remains a member.

Yeah.

But it would be better if foreign intelligence groups would still warn us if for example they have knowledge of a coming terror attack in Austria. Otherwise it would look kinda bad on their part ...

Plus: we already knew in 2017 that they would limit their flow to the FP-led Interior Ministry because of their pro-Russia ties. Nothing new really. They should just report to Kurz instead (not even Strache, Kurz can tell Strache the important parts) and the case is solved. The FP needs to be sidelined here.
The important bits are the stuff they dont want to give to the Russians. It simple really, either get woke or get cast in the dark, NATO isnt budging to put itself in risk just because you democratically voted in fifth-columnists.

Thats why the easiest solution for this would be to report the Russia-related stuff only to Chancellor Kurz and the remaining stuff to the FP-led Interior Ministry ...
And if some of that info runs tangentially to Russian stuff? For all purposes, leaving Austria in the dark is a good move so as to not have a leaky foundation.

In this case, the BVT needs to be put under the supervision of the Chancellery, instead of the Interior Ministry. Problem: the FP would not vote for it unless Kurz threatens to blow up the coalition.

Either that, or Kurz should receive the full data load from abroad. Leaving Austria in the dark about the Russians is not cool.
Well then isolate them, then. Or else wait till the next election and form a new coalition government with SP or Nes or something.

Its been clear that FP is a security risk, from the inside link by Neonazis and their strong ties, almost allegiance to Russia. Or risk being in the dark for quite some time.

Austria is arguably now safer as it is not importing new threats DUE to the FP.

Your loving SP imported the threats in the first place, and you cannot factually dispute that. :)

Plus, American paranoia makes me cringe. In a lot of things, the US and Russia are no different, although the US offers vastly more freedom to its citizens. You both reject the International court and you both overthrow/prop-up regimes (Saudi Arabia, Panama, Iran), so please stop acting like you are the definition of justice and honour.
While I dont hide that I detest the FP, I wasnt trying to cover for the United States. I was merely pointing out that Austria will be separated and isolated from the rest of the NATO coalition until the security issue with FP is resolved. How you can get that from me, a person who screetches about US interventionist attitudes nonstop, is a mystery.

Im not going to debate you on Immigration in Austria, as I can tell that you wont budge from your absolutism nor do I have the ability to spam evidence appropriately enough for the onlookers, after all I cant read German. Nor will I get off-topic on the discussion at hand, that Austria is a security concern for NATO due to having leaks in the government due to elements having Russian alignment. So debate me on that. What do you think about the current shunning of Austria by other intelligence partners? Do you prefer to break from NATO? Is being in the Russian sphere optimal for your envisioned future for Austrian society?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Omega21 on April 10, 2019, 08:50:21 pm
UK, Dutch intelligence limit Austria data flow over Russian ties:MP (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-security/uk-dutch-spy-agencies-curb-intel-flow-to-austria-over-russia-ties-mp-idUSKCN1RL2CM)
Quote
British and Dutch spy agencies have heavily restricted the amount of intelligence they share with Austria, mainly because of ties between the ruling far-right Freedom Party and Russia, an Austrian opposition lawmaker said on Tuesday.

...

Kurz has said he plans to make the BVT report to him and FPO Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache although it would still remain part of the Interior Ministry.

The BVT is not currently taking part in working groups of the Club of Bern, a network of European intelligence agencies, because of concerns among members about a club memo that was leaked to an Austrian newspaper, the head of the BVT said last week. He added, however, that Austria remains a member.

Yeah.

But it would be better if foreign intelligence groups would still warn us if for example they have knowledge of a coming terror attack in Austria. Otherwise it would look kinda bad on their part ...

Plus: we already knew in 2017 that they would limit their flow to the FP-led Interior Ministry because of their pro-Russia ties. Nothing new really. They should just report to Kurz instead (not even Strache, Kurz can tell Strache the important parts) and the case is solved. The FP needs to be sidelined here.
The important bits are the stuff they dont want to give to the Russians. It simple really, either get woke or get cast in the dark, NATO isnt budging to put itself in risk just because you democratically voted in fifth-columnists.

Thats why the easiest solution for this would be to report the Russia-related stuff only to Chancellor Kurz and the remaining stuff to the FP-led Interior Ministry ...
And if some of that info runs tangentially to Russian stuff? For all purposes, leaving Austria in the dark is a good move so as to not have a leaky foundation.

In this case, the BVT needs to be put under the supervision of the Chancellery, instead of the Interior Ministry. Problem: the FP would not vote for it unless Kurz threatens to blow up the coalition.

Either that, or Kurz should receive the full data load from abroad. Leaving Austria in the dark about the Russians is not cool.
Well then isolate them, then. Or else wait till the next election and form a new coalition government with SP or Nes or something.

Its been clear that FP is a security risk, from the inside link by Neonazis and their strong ties, almost allegiance to Russia. Or risk being in the dark for quite some time.

Austria is arguably now safer as it is not importing new threats DUE to the FP.

Your loving SP imported the threats in the first place, and you cannot factually dispute that. :)

Plus, American paranoia makes me cringe. In a lot of things, the US and Russia are no different, although the US offers vastly more freedom to its citizens. You both reject the International court and you both overthrow/prop-up regimes (Saudi Arabia, Panama, Iran), so please stop acting like you are the definition of justice and honour.
While I dont hide that I detest the FP, I wasnt trying to cover for the United States. I was merely pointing out that Austria will be separated and isolated from the rest of the NATO coalition until the security issue with FP is resolved. How you can get that from me, a person who screetches about US interventionist attitudes nonstop, is a mystery.

Im not going to debate you on Immigration in Austria, as I can tell that you wont budge from your absolutism nor do I have the ability to spam evidence appropriately enough for the onlookers, after all I cant read German. Nor will I get off-topic on the discussion at hand, that Austria is a security concern for NATO due to having leaks in the government due to elements having Russian alignment. So debate me on that. What do you think about the current shunning of Austria by other intelligence partners? Do you prefer to break from NATO? Is being in the Russian sphere optimal for your envisioned future for Austrian society?

You probably already know this, Austria is not and will not be a member of NATO (or any other military alliance).

As for the intelligence, calling up the Austrian authorities and saying "Hey, you know that *insert name here* dude, yeah he might be a terrorist" is of no value to Russia, and that's one of the most important aspects of Intelligence for Austria, and as already said, there is no real reason to stop sharing that information.

As for other things, Austria is not really a player on the World Stage, and Vienna is a hub for US/Nato  and Russian spies as it is (American NSA Villa in Vienna or the Austrian officer who was arrested after sharing info with Russians).

I also doubt that the FP is sharing any Top Secret info with Russia because one mistake could be very costly for them. The last FP government was a disaster, so they realize they have a limited number of mistakes they can make before being sidelined again, for a long long time (or until a new mass migration wave happens).

IMO, Limiting Austria's access is pretty dumb considering that no "Intel sharing/passing" actually happened.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: mgop on April 11, 2019, 08:32:51 am
sad that sp and fp fans are fighting when it's clear that vp is biggest evil in austria and true criminal nest


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 11, 2019, 01:59:37 pm
As long as the foreign spy groups warn us a day before Russia plans to invade us, everything should be fine ...

Everything else is negligible.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 13, 2019, 03:06:50 am
New "Profil" magazine poll by Unique Research has the FP dropping and the SP gaining:

34% VP (n.c.)
28% SP (+3)
22% FP (-2)
  7% NEOS (-1)
  5% Greens (n.c.)
  2% NOW (n.c.)
  2% Others (n.c.)

61% of voters do not think the disassociation of the FP from the far-right Identitarians is convincing enough.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190413_OTS0003/profil-umfrage-kanzlerfrage-kurz-zieht-davon-profitiert-von-identitaeren-machtwort


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 13, 2019, 11:25:50 am
100-200 Identitarians held a demo today in Vienna incl. Martin Sellner:

()

About 2.000-5.000 protested against them:

()

Both demos concluded peacefully, thanks to the massive police presence.

https://derstandard.at/2000101362650/Identitaere-Kundgebung-und-Gegendemo-in-Wien


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2019, 10:52:50 am
Combined Austria-wide results of the union vote, representing the 4 million Austrian employees have been released and the FSG (Faction of Socialist Unionists) increased their dominant position by 3.3%, whereas the VP-, FP- and Green-affiliated unionists all lost ground or remained stable. 7 of the 9 states were won by the FSG, 2 are historically dominated by the VP unionists. Roughly 2 million of the 4 million workers took part in the union vote in the previous months. This is good news for the SP because it could mean a revival of their base ahead of the EU elections:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2019, 11:13:51 am
In the 1st quarter of 2019, new asylum requests dropped by 30% compared with Q1, 2018:

Jan-March 2019: 2.881 new requests
Jan-March 2018: 4.050 new requests

The main countries of those with new requests are unchanged though:

* Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Russia (Chechnya).

While the number of new requests is still high (ca. 12.000 expected for the whole year), it could be for the first time that there will be more deportations this year than new requests, which is exactly what Austrians want.

Only if there are more deportations than new requests, will the massive stockpile of asylum seekers from recent years start to decline ... :)

The best thing would be if there are just 5.000 new asylum requests a year and 15.000 deportations. Then their stockpile would decline by about 10.000 per year.

We already have enough immigration from the EU and other countries anyway, excluding all the asylum requests.

At least the policies on asylum/immigration by the VP/FP government are heading in the right direction: finally working for the Austrian people and not for the pro-asylum/immigration lobby.

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5612466/Seit-Jahresbeginn_Die-Zahl-der-Asylantraege-in-Oesterreich-geht


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: PSOL on April 15, 2019, 11:58:48 am
Austrian central bank says government threatens its financial independence (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-economy-banks-regulation/austrian-central-bank-says-government-threatens-its-financial-independence-idUSKCN1RR1S0)

Quote
Conservative Chancellor Sebastian Kurzs government, which includes the far-right Freedom Party, announced plans last year to reform banking supervision in Austria, which is currently split between the Financial Market Authority and the central bank.

It says the plan, which will shift 180 jobs to the FMA from the Austrian National Bank (ONB) and do away with one of the two FMA co-chiefs jobs, will make for a more streamlined structure and save money.

The central bank, however, said the plan would make banking supervision more complicated and expensive.

It is to be feared that supervision costs in Austria will increase as a result of these new, complicated structures, taking into account in particular the creation of three new sections in the Finance Ministry, the ONB said in a statement.

Rip Austrias long-term growth and financial stability. I wonder though who will be the Austrian Herman Cain?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 15, 2019, 12:36:41 pm
Austrian central bank says government threatens its financial independence (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-economy-banks-regulation/austrian-central-bank-says-government-threatens-its-financial-independence-idUSKCN1RR1S0)

Quote
Conservative Chancellor Sebastian Kurzs government, which includes the far-right Freedom Party, announced plans last year to reform banking supervision in Austria, which is currently split between the Financial Market Authority and the central bank.

It says the plan, which will shift 180 jobs to the FMA from the Austrian National Bank (ONB) and do away with one of the two FMA co-chiefs jobs, will make for a more streamlined structure and save money.

The central bank, however, said the plan would make banking supervision more complicated and expensive.

It is to be feared that supervision costs in Austria will increase as a result of these new, complicated structures, taking into account in particular the creation of three new sections in the Finance Ministry, the ONB said in a statement.

Rip Austrias long-term growth and financial stability. I wonder though who will be the Austrian Herman Cain?

It is no surprise that a new government tries to re-colour certain agencies with people from their side. Therefore a lot of agencies with SP-members on them (from the SPVP coalition) are now replaced with more VP-FP people instead. If SP people are removed, obviously the SP will cry foul and fear for independence ...

But reading the article here, it seems more like a balanced mini-reform, rather than something big or controversial:

https://derstandard.at/2000101457521/Regierung-entfernt-bei-Umbau-der-Finanzmarktaufsicht-SP-nahen-Vorstand

Also, I dont see Austrias long term growth or financial stability threatened because of it. The biggest influence comes from Finance Minister Lger (VP) and hes doing a good job.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 15, 2019, 12:42:33 pm
Also, the Central Bank is fuming and fearing for their independence, because they will have to pay a higher dividend to the state under the new government plans.

I dont see anything bad here. It is better in my opinion to milk the central bank for more revenues rather than the taxpayers. If they optimize their investment strategy, everything should be OK ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2019, 02:47:00 pm
Former VP-leader Reinhold Mitterlehner is out with a new book in which he fully attacks current VP-Chancellor Kurz and his rise to power and how he bullied out Mitterlehner as leader of the party.

Mitterlehner accuses Kurz of planning his rise to power for years already (no surprise) in a Macchiavellian way, full of intrigues against Mitterlehner and his people and says Kurz is a door-opener for the far-right populists:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2019, 10:19:36 am
The Mitterlehner book is creating quite a headache for the VP, as 2 other former party leaders and some governors had to come to the rescue of Kurz today:

https://orf.at/stories/3119125

I have always liked the good, old Mitty and his late revenge against Kurz and his folk just ahead of the EU elections is a welcome distraction from VP-FP's Machtrausch. Recently, it looked as if they could do whatever they want, but some checks and balances is definitely needed for them. That's why I also hope the SP wins the EU elections, so that they have to step down from their high horse.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2019, 02:38:16 pm
For German-speakers (the battle between Mitterlehner and Kurz explained):

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/oesterreich-kurz-oevp-fpoe-1.4413232

https://derstandard.at/2000101625729/Die-Kurz-Frage

For Americans, the situation is comparable to Trump vs. Romney (and other Trump critics from within the GOP).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 20, 2019, 04:08:06 am
The FP continues to push their pro-Austrians/anti-foreigner agenda ahead of the EU elections.

Just recently, the FP-Interior Minister Kickl (responsible for asylum) has announced that asylum seekers in basic government care (they get free housing, food and medical care from the state) will see a payment reduction for voluntary community service from the current 3-5 per hour to 1.50 per hour.

()

Kickl argues that this top-up "appreciation payment from our society to asylum seekers" is too high, considering that drafted army recruits get less than asylum seekers right now, when factoring in the free housing etc. for the asylum seekers and he wants to streamline the benefits.

The plans are very polarizing, with the FP-base and VP strongly supporting the measure - while the SP+Green social ministers in the 9 states are opposed. The neutral Stdtebund (association of Austrian cities) is also against, while the Gemeindebund (association of Austrian towns) is in favour.

As the Interior Minister has the power to enforce this new provision, the states will have to enforce them as well (but could sue). Would be bad on their part though, because it will be hard for them to argue to the voters why asylum seekers should get more compensation for community work than drafted recruits ...

https://orf.at/#/stories/3119455

In other news, the FP (backed by the VP) has unveiled a new law for "Austrians (... and EU-citizens) FIRST !" when applying for new housing/apartments.

()

Currently, Austrians + EU citizens + other foreigners have the same requirements when requesting for a city-funded new apartment with lower-than-average rent costs (Sozialbauwohnung).

FP+VP now want to give preference to Austrians + EU citizens who already lived in Austria for 5 years over those who just recently arrived in the country when applying for such a funded apartment.

Vienna and other big Austrian cities have a long tradition of cheap apartments for immigrants and working-class Austrians, going back to the early 1900s and Red Vienna. Just recently, the new Vienna mayor Michael Ludwig also announced that he favours such a policy of preference for Austrians and EU-citizens over newcomers.

https://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/oesterreicher-zuerst-im-sozialen-wohnbau/400470214


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 21, 2019, 03:23:14 am
After the actual 2018 budget surplus, VP+FP are submitting another planned budget surplus to Brussels next week for 2019 ("We will end the debt policy of the past.") and they also plan budget surpluses until 2023 already (which is 1 year into their planned 2nd term).

Also, the details of the 2020 tax cut for employees will be presented in the coming weeks, as both the 2020/2021 double budget and tax cut will be passed before summer:

https://derstandard.at/2000101809724/Regierung-plant-durchgehendes-Nulldefizit-bis-2023


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2019, 05:44:52 am
FP-leader Strache (or better, the aide responsible for his Facebook page) has linked to a highly anti-semitic website recently:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/strache-will-keine-seite-mit-rechtsradikalen-inhalten-geteilt-haben/400472920


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2019, 12:42:36 pm
Ra(t)cist poem from someone in the Upper Austrian FP creates controversy:

https://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2977414

Looks like the FP is not giving up on their far-right wing to mobilize for the EU election, just because Kurz and Co. demand the party to de-radicalize while in government ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on April 22, 2019, 01:55:33 pm
"Fascists will de-radicalize when faced with the responsibilities of sharing power" - they said, many times and in many places.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2019, 11:57:04 am
Ra(t)cist poem from someone in the Upper Austrian FP creates controversy:

https://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2977414

Looks like the FP is not giving up on their far-right wing to mobilize for the EU election, just because Kurz and Co. demand the party to de-radicalize while in government ...

The FP poet Schilcher announced his resignation today from the Braunau city council and from the party.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2019, 03:13:48 pm
Ra(t)cist poem from someone in the Upper Austrian FP creates controversy:

https://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2977414

Looks like the FP is not giving up on their far-right wing to mobilize for the EU election, just because Kurz and Co. demand the party to de-radicalize while in government ...

The FP poet Schilcher announced his resignation today from the Braunau city council and from the party.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48031971

https://abcnews.go.com/International/poem-comparing-migrants-rats-draws-condemnation-austria/story?id=62573215


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2019, 03:27:54 pm
"Fascists will de-radicalize when faced with the responsibilities of sharing power" - they said, many times and in many places.

Well, for the past half year at least, it looked as if the FP had itself under control and no real controversial remarks surfaced.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 24, 2019, 11:03:46 am
President Van der Bellen (Greens) has summoned FP-leader Strache to his Hofburg office today, to lecture him about the recent string of anti-semitic and racist incidents in the FP and how this reminds him of the "language of the Nazis", "a language of fear and hatred" and how they turned Austria into a "negative international spotlight" (there were articles in the BBC and NYT for example).

Strache told VdB that he will do "everything possible" to make sure "these incidents remain limited" and "fire" those responsible.

https://orf.at/stories/3119829


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 24, 2019, 01:53:19 pm
The FP-Styria is out with a comic poster titled Tradition beats Immigration and a blonde couple in traditional clothing surrounded by shady people (according to the FP, Muslim extremists).

But the famous Austrian TV anchor on the public broadcaster ORF, Armin Wolf, took up the comic and put a picture of the Nazi Strmer propaganda newspaper next to it when interviewing the FP frontrunner Vilimsky yesterday, showing men with a hooked nose on both of them. Vilimsky called the comparison by Wolf outrageous and said Wolf has to face consequences because of this comparison.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/experten-ueber-stuermer-vergleich-in-zib2-klarer-gehts-nicht/400475215


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 25, 2019, 12:02:16 pm
Parliament has passed the welfare reform law today with the votes of VP+FP.

SP+NEOS+NOW voted against.

The new law will see much lower welfare payments to foreigners with bad German skills (unless they award a passing certificate from a state-recognized language training group) and children-rich families, while single parents and the disabled will get more money.

The 9 states will be granted time until Jan. 1, 2020 to prepare for the new law.

https://orf.at/stories/3120006


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on April 25, 2019, 11:52:31 pm
Interesting development ahead of the coming presentation of VP+FP's tax cut/reform plans:

Apparently, the government wants to cut taxes much more for working people with lower/middle-incomes, rather than cutting taxes for companies.

In total, the tax cut will be worth 5-6 billion and the lion share will be for workers - with corporate tax cuts only making up several hundred million (and even those mostly for small- and medium sized business and not large corporations). The early plans saw roughly a 50:50 tax cut for both workers and companies, now it will be more 95:5 for workers.

The tax brackets for workers will be re-structured to only 3 to make accounting for companies more easier and lessen the bureaucratic burden.

Big Business is not really amused with this development, but I guess the average employee will be happy about it ... :)

But even with the smaller-than-assumed corporate tax cuts, Austria's corporate tax rates will decline to ca. 23-24% from the current 25% - which is still lower than many other European countries:

()

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/industrie-geht-bei-entlastung-leer-aus-und-probt-den-aufstand/400476394

Also:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-austria-budget/austrias-debt-ratio-to-shrink-to-below-60-percent-by-2023-idUKKCN1S01L9


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2019, 11:57:00 pm
After 2018, it seems that 2019 will see another budget surplus - based on the January-March numbers.

In the first 3 months, revenues are up by 8.3% while spending is down by 1.5%

Whereas the first 3 months of 2018 had a deficit of 2.4 billion , this is down to 0.6 billion this year.

Therefore, the budget surplus could be has high as 0.5-1.0% this year, after 0.1% last year.

https://www.bmf.gv.at/budget/das-budget/Monatsbericht_Maerz_2019_final.pdf


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 04, 2019, 01:17:46 am
A new "Profil" magazine poll shows that 49% of Austrians do not think the FP is competent enough or suited to be a government party, while 40% think they are.

9/10 SP-voters think the FP is not competent enough, compared with 30% of VP-voters.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190504_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-knapp-die-haelfte-der-oesterreicher-haelt-fpoe-fuer-nicht-regierungsfaehig


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Omega21 on May 04, 2019, 01:33:23 pm
A new "Profil" magazine poll shows that 49% of Austrians do not think the FP is competent enough or suited to be a government party, while 40% think they are.

9/10 SP-voters think the FP is not competent enough, compared with 30% of VP-voters.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190504_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-knapp-die-haelfte-der-oesterreicher-haelt-fpoe-fuer-nicht-regierungsfaehig

Well yeah, since, unlike their name, the Socialists don't really attract workers, but hip city/upper middle-class people, as I'm sure most of the lower middle class is satisfied with the Reforms being worked on, so I doubt they would write them off so quickly.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 08, 2019, 01:46:52 am
VP+FP will finally pass the elementary school headscarf ban into law today, after it was delayed by SP and NEOS for 2 times.

VP+FP wanted a constitutional majority, but SP and NEOS were opposed. It remains to be seen if they will vote with the government today (probably not).

()

Still, more than 80% of Austrians favour the ban as part of fighting political Islam in the country (and even want it extended to all school forms up to 18 years).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/dritter-anlauf-fuer-kopftuchverbot-an-volksschulen/400487491


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 08, 2019, 10:47:24 am
Today, at a commemoration for the end of WW2, President Van der Bellen (Greens) strongly attacked the FP and Strache for the use of the word "population replacement" in recent days.

Strache has repeatedly used the word recently and defended it, saying that the far-right Identitarians merely adopted the word from the FP, instead of vice-versa (the FP indeed used the word before them under the term Umvolkung).

VdB said that the terms population replacement and Umvolkung remind him of the German Volksgemeinschaft under the Nazis and that he doesn't want to live in such an ethnic 100% homogenous society and that achieving it today would only be possible by force (like the Nazis did). And this is highly dangerous, VdB said, because the choice of words could also lead to violence again.

https://orf.at/stories/3121439

I'm not completely sure if VdB is correct here: you can also make the population of a country more homogenous again, without force. By limiting further immigration, more deportations of criminal and rejected asylum seekers/foreigners and by promoting higher birth rates among the population.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: urutzizu on May 17, 2019, 11:37:16 am
Well, apparently the  FP chief and vice chancellor HC Strache has been caught on tape offering government Contracts in exchange for Donations. (https://m.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/heinz-christian-strache-geheim-videos-belasten-fpoe-chef-a-1268059.html)
I wonder whether this might cause the fall of the Goverment..


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 17, 2019, 02:15:48 pm
Well, apparently the  FP chief and vice chancellor HC Strache has been caught on tape offering government Contracts in exchange for Donations. (https://m.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/heinz-christian-strache-geheim-videos-belasten-fpoe-chef-a-1268059.html)
I wonder whether this might cause the fall of the Goverment..

I just came home and read about this Its a trap ! video.

This video, showing Strache and Vienna Vice-mayor Gudenus on Ibiza in a staged apartment meeting with an actress playing a wealthy, young female Russian investor is absolutely brutal.

I dont see how Strache can survive this ... (unless the FP tries to sit things out and waits what the upcoming corruption probe of the state prosecution will show).

Also, President Van der Bellen could ask for Straches resignation as Vice-Chancellor and Sports and Civil Servants Minister ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 17, 2019, 02:30:03 pm
Johann Gudenus is the son of the late John Gudenus, a convicted Holocaust denier, and one of Straches closest party members (along Hofer, Vilimsky and Upper Austrian party boss Haimbuchner).

Gudenus has studied in Russia, speaks the language fluently and set up the meeting in the staged video.

Gudenus, it was exposed, also used a Russian email account in the past with the password heilheil.

Also in the video, Strache talks about the Russian investor buying into the Kronen Zeitung which is Austrias biggest tabloid newspaper to influence the outcome of the 2017 election and of circumventing Austrias legal campaign finance laws, by donating to secret accounts for the FP. According to Strache, billionaires like Gaston Glock etc. have done so already. Strache also called journalists bitches in the video and that many of them need to be replaced immediately.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/strache-video-johann-gudenus-fpoe-1.4451178


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 17, 2019, 02:53:57 pm
Austrian far-right leader filmed offering public contracts for campaign support

Quote
The leader of Austria's far-right Freedom Party has been filmed offering to trade public contracts for campaign support, German media reported Friday.

The revelations could bring Austria's government to breaking point amid growing tensions between the far-right party and its coalition partner, the Austrian People's Party of Chancellor Sebastian Kurz.

The secretly recorded footage of Heinz-Christian Strache, Austria's vice chancellor and leader of the Freedom Party (FP), was taken on the Spanish island of Ibiza before the Austrian election in 2017, according to Der Spiegel and Sddeutsche Zeitung, which obtained the video from an unnamed source.

It shows Strache, alongside fellow FP politician Johann Gudenus, speaking to a woman claiming to be a wealthy Russian citizen who said she wanted to invest in Austria, apparently with money of dubious origin.

The encounter, which lasted six hours, appeared to be a trap for Strache, according to Der Spiegel and Sddeutsche.

()

The woman offered to buy a 50 percent stake in Austria's Kronen-Zeitung newspaper and switch it to a pro-FP line. In turn, Strache said he could award her public contracts.

If the alleged Russian helped the FP succeed, Strache said in the video, "she should found a company like Strabag," a major Austrian construction company. He added: "She will then get all the state contracts that Strabag gets now."

Strache and Gudenus also appeared to hint at the existence of a potentially illegal donation system for the party. The FP leader said in the video that wealthy donors "pay between 500,000 and 1.5 to 2 million" not to the party but to an association.

Strache added: "The association is charitable, it's got nothing to do with the party. That way no report goes to the Rechnungshof," the Austrian court of auditors.

In comments to Sddeutsche and Der Spiegel, alleged donors named by Strache and Gudenus in the meeting denied sending money to the party either directly or indirectly. Strache and Gudenus said that such donations never arrived.

The two politicians did admit that the meeting happened, but said it had been a "purely private" encounter with plenty of alcohol involved. They said they had repeatedly mentioned "the relevant legal regulations and the necessity to observe Austrian law" during the evening.

In the video, Strache also said he wanted to "build a media landscape like Orbn," referring to Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbn.

https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-far-right-freedom-strache

The opposition (SP, NEOS, Greens, NOW) all call for Strache's resignation, an investigation (which has already been announced) and new elections.

The VP is completely silent right now and the FP will sue the German newspapers for "aquiring illegal, fake material".


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 17, 2019, 03:43:37 pm
The "Standard" reports that Chancellor Kurz will talk with Strache tomorrow and then to the press:

https://derstandard.at/2000103364196/Strache-soll-Staatsauftraege-fuer-Wahlkampfspenden-in-Aussicht-gestellt-haben

According to some FP people, a resignation of Strache and Gudenus could be likely tomorrow - with Norbert Hofer taking over the party. It remains to be seen if Chancellor Kurz will also continue the VP-FP coalition in such a case, but what alternative does he have ? He still hates the SP much more than the FP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Omega21 on May 17, 2019, 04:40:39 pm
Oh God Strache, what have you done...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: PSOL on May 17, 2019, 04:54:35 pm
Oh God Strache, what have you done...
He did something anyone else in the party would have done. It fits well with the constant corruption scandals, exposed from Italy to Sweden and France to Romania, that seem to follow Right wing populists. Almost like there is something in their worldview that enables this sort of behavior?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Omega21 on May 17, 2019, 05:06:59 pm
Oh God Strache, what have you done...
He did something anyone else in the party would have done. It fits well with the constant corruption scandals, exposed from Italy to Sweden and France to Romania, that seem to follow Right wing populists. Almost like there is something in their worldview that enables this sort of behavior?

In this video, no actual crimes were committed, and yet, the same cannot be said for Hillary, who still ran for President in spite of her well-proven scandal with confidential information.

At least Europe has some standards, and he will most likely resign for his mistakes.

(and he should)

So, please feel free to correct me if I am wrong, or is Hillary also considered right-wing nowadays?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: JonHawk on May 17, 2019, 10:13:59 pm
Oh God Strache, what have you done...
He did something anyone else in the party would have done. It fits well with the constant corruption scandals, exposed from Italy to Sweden and France to Romania, that seem to follow Right wing populists. Almost like there is something in their worldview that enables this sort of behavior?

Right wing populism will continue to rise in Europe. Cope harder


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 12:38:30 am
It looks as if Chancellor Kurz will blow up the coalition today and pull a Schssel 2.0 (like the former Chancellor did in 2002, when the previous VP-FP government exploded after the Knittelfeld putsch).

Kurz hopes that disappointed FP-voters will push him above 40% in snap election, so that he can then form a new government with NEOS or with the Greens (or both, like here in Salzburg).

But more about this when Kurz really pulls the plug today and calls for early federal elections ...

---

Also: it looks like cocaine can be seen on the table in the staged Russian villa on Ibiza.

Also: in the video (6 hours of material !), Strache also talks about selling our pristine Alpine water to the Russians, which is a total no-go for Austrians and even FP-voters. That was a total own goal and shows that Strache was exposed not as a patriot, but as a traitor to the country.

()
(FP delegation with Putin's United Russia, signing a co-operation contract)

Also: the "Kronen Zeitung" newspaper (which Strache wanted to sell to the Russian oligarch woman for influence, to transform Austria's media landscape ala Orban (quote Strache) is out with a devastating cover today, so is the "Profil" magazine (notice that the "Krone" was always very favourable towards Strache and the FP until recently):

"The FP is done !" and "Endgame !"

() ()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 03:02:41 am
BREAKING NEWS:

Far-right FP-leader Strache to offer Kurz and VdB his resignation as Vice-Chancellor in ca. 1-2 hours.

The FP wants to continue the coalition with the VP with Norbert Hofer, but it's not clear yet if Kurz will accept this or call for early elections ...

Strache has been FP-leader for 14 years.

https://orf.at/stories/3122842


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: President Johnson on May 18, 2019, 04:15:59 am
Hopefully this coalition ends now and FP never rises to power again.

Would Kurz form another grand coalition without new elections? What the use of that? VP-SP have a comfortable majority. A new election wouldn't change that much other than the FP losing a few points.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 04:46:06 am
Hopefully this coalition ends now and FP never rises to power again.

Would Kurz form another grand coalition without new elections? What the use of that? VP-SP have a comfortable majority. A new election wouldn't change that much other than the FP losing a few points.

According to the Standard's latest live-ticker post (https://derstandard.at/jetzt/livebericht/2000103378107/redcontent/1000155160/kurz-schliesst-weitere-zusammenarbeit-mit-strache-aus-fpoe-bietet-norbert), new early elections are all but certain - because Chancellor Kurz has apparently refused to continue the coalition even with Norbert Hofer as new FP-leader.

VP-SP without new elections won't make any sense, because Kurz hates the SP.

If new elections are called, they will likely be held in late September (after the school holidays are over) or in October.

The most likely scenario is that Kurz will receive a huge amount of FP-voters, getting 40%+ and then he can form a government with NEOS and/or Greens.

BTW: Strache will announce his [very likely] resignation in 15 minutes, live here:

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/ZIB-Spezial-zur-Causa-Ibiza/14014983


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on May 18, 2019, 04:53:25 am
Does Strache risk jail?
Because what he did looks like treason right?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 04:58:04 am
Does Strache risk jail?
Because what he did looks like treason right?

Yes. The SP has already filed a charge against Strache and Gudenus with the state corruption prosecution.

Ernst Strasser, the former Austrian Interior Minister from the VP and member of the EU parliament, once did roughly the same thing as Strache and Gudenus in that video ("cash for laws") and got a 3-year prison sentence.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 05:02:16 am
Interesting also that the video was made in the summer of 2017, before the federal election.

Why did those who made the video wait almost 2 years to publish it, rather than letting the bomb explode during the coalition talks already ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigning ?)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 05:20:11 am
Strache speaking now ... ("leftist witch-hunt", "dirty campaigning" etc.)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigning ?)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 05:22:20 am
"They abused me under rising alcohol intoxication. My talking points were embarrassing ... and most embarrassing for my wife."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigning ?)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 05:24:03 am
Strache: "I was incredibly stupid."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigning ?)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 05:27:14 am
Strache:

"I have offered Chancellor Kurz my resignation from all offices, which he accepted. Norbert Hofer will take over the party as interim leader."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigning ?)
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on May 18, 2019, 05:28:10 am
If I were the OVP I would call new elections, get additional votes and then form a coalition again with FPO with Norbert Hofer. A weak ally would mean no opposition at all.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 05:28:31 am
And there he goes ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigning ?)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 05:35:32 am
If I were the OVP I would call new elections, get additional votes and then form a coalition again with FPO with Norbert Hofer. A weak ally would mean no opposition at all.

Kurz has all the options now ... (his press statement will come in the afternoon).

Another coalition with the FP seems unlikely after he calls early elections for the fall.

VP-NEOS or VP-NEOS-Greens is most likely (just like here in Salzburg).

Kurz can play the "I'm the safe bet for center-right voters."-card now and keep the FP at 10% or something, while the VP rises to 40%+.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 05:49:18 am
Johann Gudenus, the 2nd FP-guy in the staged video along Strache, is also stepping down from all offices.

Gudenus was also Vienna's FP-leader until today, so they will also need a new one there.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: DavidB. on May 18, 2019, 06:17:25 am
Goddamnit.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: mgop on May 18, 2019, 06:22:51 am
it's nice to see strache down. there are also many in ovp who are on russian dirty payroll.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 06:26:22 am

I've never been so sad for Austria...

Please, do us right wingers proud in the Netherlands.

it's nice to see strache down. there are also many in ovp who are on russian dirty payroll.

When will you people stop with the constant Russophobia?

Also, I didn't see Tender mention it:

ALL OF THE PEOPLE IN THE VIDEO WERE ACTORS, NOT REAL RUSSIAN OLIGARCHS

That is the official statement of the Newspaper that released it.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 06:31:56 am
Another thing that has been brought up on Social Media:

Considering how foreign international media (and for the trap video, probably foreign intelligence services) collaborated and conspired to take Strache down, what about the death of former FP-leader Jrg Haider in retrospect ?

Do we still believe that he died in a car "accident", or did foreign powers indeed had something to do with it - manipulating his car/drinks - before he had the car crash, as was suspected in conspiracy theories ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: mileslunn on May 18, 2019, 06:32:14 am
How about a coalition with SPO?  I know idea may sound silly as per other mentions but that would actually kill any chances of them winning next time.  Every time left wing parties are junior partners to right wing ones always pay big time next election.  Think SPD in Germany, Labour in Netherlands and Ireland, Liberal Democrats in UK, Greens in Ireland and Czech Republic.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 06:34:23 am
How about a coalition with SPO?  I know idea may sound silly as per other mentions but that would actually kill any chances of them winning next time.  Every time left wing parties are junior partners to right wing ones always pay big time next election.  Think SPD in Germany, Labour in Netherlands and Ireland, Liberal Democrats in UK, Greens in Ireland and Czech Republic.

Nope.

Kurz doesn't like the SP in its current form and VP-NEOS-(Greens) is much less trouble, especially if the VP gets 40%+ in the fall.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 06:37:26 am
Another thing that has been brought up on Social Media:

Considering how foreign international media (and for the trap video, probably foreign intelligence services) collaborated and conspired to take Strache down, what about the death of former FP-leader Jrg Haider in retrospect ?

Do we still believe that he died in a car "accident", or did foreign powers indeed had something to do with it - manipulating his car/drinks - before he had the car crash, as was suspected in conspiracy theories ?

Definitely no accident.

Both were taken down, but at least Strache had the ability to avoid it, too bad he didn't...

Dying in a land yacht (the Paethon is an equivalent to the Audi A8) and being recorded by actors who sat on it for 2 years?

Sure smells like a conspiracy to me.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 18, 2019, 06:42:16 am
How about a coalition with SPO?  I know idea may sound silly as per other mentions but that would actually kill any chances of them winning next time.  Every time left wing parties are junior partners to right wing ones always pay big time next election.  Think SPD in Germany, Labour in Netherlands and Ireland, Liberal Democrats in UK, Greens in Ireland and Czech Republic.

Nope.

Kurz doesn't like the SP in its current form and VP-NEOS-(Greens) is much less trouble, especially if the VP gets 40%+ in the fall.

I actually think that FPO has a strong enough base of support to avoid totally imploding, and that base is not easily transferable to the OVP in any case. So 40+ percent for the OVP seems a little optimistic. But they may indeed do well enough to net a majority together with NEOS and the grunes.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: tack50 on May 18, 2019, 06:42:30 am
Why not simply keep the coalition with the FP?

Calling an election is a very risky move (see: Theresa May). It's not a given that all those FP voters will go en masse to the VP, they could just abstain or even go to the SP!

Sidenote: If there actually is an election, is there any chance of a SP led government that isn't a grand coalition? Say SP-Greens-NEOS?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 06:45:03 am
Chancellor Kurz's press statement is being delayed (was planned for 2pm, which is in 15 minutes).

The "Standard" reports that Kurz might continue with the FP as government member if he can also force FP-Interior Minister Kickl to resign today. With Strache, Gudenus and Kickl, all the FP's (most) controversial people would be out of the government.

But if I were Kurz, I would still opt for new elections ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 18, 2019, 06:45:05 am
The beautiful thing about right wing conspiratorialism is that it is literally right out of the Kremlin's rhetorical playbook. The only thing missing is the Russian accent.

In any case, this is a great day for Austria. I'm not a big Kurz fan but I think he could actually do quite well once unshackled from the far right.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: mileslunn on May 18, 2019, 06:46:14 am
Why not simply keep the coalition with the FP?

Calling an election is a very risky move (see: Theresa May). It's not a given that all those FP voters will go en masse to the VP, they could just abstain or even go to the SP!

Sidenote: If there actually is an election, is there any chance of a SP led government that isn't a grand coalition? Say SP-Greens-NEOS?

Based on polls to date seems very unlikely.  It would require a pretty seismic shift which I don't see happening.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 06:46:55 am
Chancellor Kurz's press statement is being delayed (was planned for 2pm, which is in 15 minutes).

The "Standard" reports that Kurz might continue with the FP as government member if he can also force FP-Interior Minister Kickl to resign today. With Strache, Gudenus and Kickl, all the FP's (most) controversial people would be out of the government.

But if I were Kurz, I would still opt for new elections ...

Do you think Kurz could get the same things passed (in terms of migration and benefits) with the Greens?

No chance in hell, the coalition would implode.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 06:51:31 am
Chancellor Kurz's press statement is being delayed (was planned for 2pm, which is in 15 minutes).

The "Standard" reports that Kurz might continue with the FP as government member if he can also force FP-Interior Minister Kickl to resign today. With Strache, Gudenus and Kickl, all the FP's (most) controversial people would be out of the government.

But if I were Kurz, I would still opt for new elections ...

Do you think Kurz could get the same things passed (in terms of migration and benefits) with the Greens?

No chance in hell, the coalition would implode.

Yeah, somehow I will miss the VP-FP government's steady work on the topic of immigration.

Just recently, they passed the headscarf ban in elementary schools (after it was passed for kindergartens already) and Kickl was in the process of streamlining the asylum system in Austria and to put it fully under government oversight, rather than the current system being run by the state and (heavily pro-immigration) charities and NGOs. Deportations of criminal and rejected foreigners are up, new asylum requests down a lot.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 18, 2019, 06:52:08 am
Why not simply keep the coalition with the FP?

Calling an election is a very risky move (see: Theresa May). It's not a given that all those FP voters will go en masse to the VP, they could just abstain or even go to the SP!

Sidenote: If there actually is an election, is there any chance of a SP led government that isn't a grand coalition? Say SP-Greens-NEOS?

I think it's pretty clear that the FPO is a sinking ship. Their polling has been declining for a while. Obviously this won't help. Why tie to yourself to a dumpster fire when you don't have to?

A new election definitely could go a bit haywire and end up with ab SPO PM. But I think the odds are pretty clearly with OVP staying on top. When it's either the dysfunction and now corruption of the far right or new elections with decent odds, I think it's obvious that you take the new elections even though in theory you might lose them.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 06:55:44 am
Chancellor Kurz's press statement is being delayed (was planned for 2pm, which is in 15 minutes).

The "Standard" reports that Kurz might continue with the FP as government member if he can also force FP-Interior Minister Kickl to resign today. With Strache, Gudenus and Kickl, all the FP's (most) controversial people would be out of the government.

But if I were Kurz, I would still opt for new elections ...

Do you think Kurz could get the same things passed (in terms of migration and benefits) with the Greens?

No chance in hell, the coalition would implode.

Yeah, somehow I will miss the VP-FP government's steady work on the topic of immigration.

Just recently, they passed the headscarf ban in elementary schools (after it was passed for kindergartens already) and Kickl was in the process of streamlining the asylum system in Austria and to put it fully under government oversight, rather than the current system being run by the state and (heavily pro-immigration) charities and NGOs. Deportations of criminal and rejected foreigners are up, new asylum requests down a lot.

Yeah, my wish would be a full cleanup (Strache, Gudenus and Kickl), and a stable coalition with Hofer.

I'm sad to see Strache go, but he brought it upon himself, unfortunately.

At least it shows that Austria has some standards, unlike certain other countries where you get rewarded for breaking the law. *cough Hillary*


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: DavidB. on May 18, 2019, 06:59:33 am
Strache and Gudenus absolutely need to go. But there is no reason to force out Kickl, right? He isn't implicated in the scandal.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 07:01:23 am
I think if Kurz somehow wants to continue with the FP, he also has to demand a 100% de-Russification from the new leadership. Which means terminating the contract by the FP with the Putin-party and a full oversight of the FP finances by the Austrian Court of Audit and make them sign a document to uphold press freedom in Austria 100%.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 07:02:11 am
Strache and Gudenus absolutely need to go. But there is no reason to force out Kickl, right? He isn't implicated in the scandal.

Yeah, he's not at fault, but Kurz needs to justify the continuation of the coalition, and if he kicks out all of the members who had controversies tied to them (Kickl had a few), he won't take a lot of flak...



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: DavidB. on May 18, 2019, 07:06:50 am
Yeah, all of this will probably happen. Kickl will be forced out, the FP will be forced to be completely emasculated and will have to accept the dominance of the liberal progressive establishment. An expensive and painful lesson for all right-wingers all across the continent: one mistake (which was inexcusable, no misconceptions about it) can be the downfall of your entire project. Meanwhile the high-speed train towards liberal dictatorship only accelerates. This was one of the few non-post-Communist countries for which I still had high hopes. But at this point I'm not so sure anymore.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 07:10:41 am
Strache and Gudenus absolutely need to go. But there is no reason to force out Kickl, right? He isn't implicated in the scandal.

Yeah, he's not at fault, but Kurz needs to justify the continuation of the coalition, and if he kicks out all of the members who had controversies tied to them (Kickl had a few), he won't take a lot of flak...

The only FP-cabinet members I see as tolerable to remain in a continued government are:

* Norbert Hofer (has done a good job as infrastructure minister and unveiled incentives for e-mobility and renewable energy and almost had 50% as a Presidential candidate, so he's vital for the FP's future chances)

* Mario Kunasek (does an acceptable job as Defense Minister, without controversies)

* Hubert Fuchs (is actually not an FP-member, was appointed by the FP as State Secretary for Finance and is an expert on tax issues and how to weed out silly regulations and a data nerd)

---

On the other hand, Kickl (Interior), Kneissl (Foreign Minister, danced with Putin at her wedding and bowed to him) and Hartinger-Klein (Health) are all troublesome and scandal-prone.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 07:14:59 am
Strache and Gudenus absolutely need to go. But there is no reason to force out Kickl, right? He isn't implicated in the scandal.

Yeah, he's not at fault, but Kurz needs to justify the continuation of the coalition, and if he kicks out all of the members who had controversies tied to them (Kickl had a few), he won't take a lot of flak...

The only FP-cabinet members I see as tolerable to remain in a continued government are:

* Norbert Hofer (has done a good job as infrastructure minister and unveiled incentives for e-mobility and renewable energy and almost had 50% as a Presidential candidate, so he's vital for the FP's future chances)

* Mario Kunasek (does an acceptable job as Defense Minister, without controversies)

* Hubert Fuchs (is actually not an FP-member, was appointed by the FP as State Secretary for Finance and is an expert on tax issues and how to weed out silly regulations and a data nerd)

---

On the other hand, Kickl (Interior), Kneissl (Foreign Minister, danced with Putin at her wedding and bowed to him) and Hartinger-Klein (Health) are all troublesome and scandal-prone.

I don't really agree with Kneissl and Klein, because they are not that controversial...

Kneissl did nothing wrong except having a good relationship with Russia, and Klein, well, you can't really be that controversial as Health minister lol...

Yeah, all of this will probably happen. Kickl will be forced out, the FP will be forced to be completely emasculated and will have to accept the dominance of the liberal progressive establishment. An expensive and painful lesson for all right-wingers all across the continent: one mistake (which was inexcusable, no misconceptions about it) can be the downfall of your entire project. Meanwhile the high-speed train towards liberal dictatorship only accelerates. This was one of the few non-post-Communist countries for which I still had high hopes. But at this point I'm not so sure anymore.

Hopefully, others will learn from his mistakes so that no future right-wing parties are destroyed the same way.

I'm sure FvD will become a target very soon, if not already.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 07:18:03 am
Julia Herr (Socialist Youth leader) and the SP are mobilizing in front of Strache's office in Vienna right now:

()

Herr protesting against VP-FP behind Kurz at a concentration camp recently:

()

https://www.instagram.com/_frau_herr_/


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on May 18, 2019, 07:27:48 am
Julia Herr (Socialist Youth leader) and the SP are mobilizing in front of Strache's office in Vienna right now:

()

Herr protesting against VP-FP behind Kurz at a concentration camp recently:

()

https://www.instagram.com/_frau_herr_/
Are there a lot of people demonstrating across Austria right now?

I would be surprised if that would be the case.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 07:38:20 am
In the video, there is also talk of "Kurz's sex orgies"

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Neues-brisantes-Video-aufgetaucht-Strache-spricht-ueber-Sex-Orgien-von-Kurz/380589584



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 18, 2019, 07:53:16 am
Other than the sensationalist sex stuff, I wonder if this could somehow blow up and envelope the OVP as well. That's probably the most obvious reason why Kurtz would call new elections. He really does need to get in front of this and put a lot of distance between the story and his government. It's hard to do that in partnership with the party that caused all of this.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 08:00:53 am
Other than the sensationalist sex stuff, I wonder if this could somehow blow up and envelope the OVP as well. That's probably the most obvious reason why Kurtz would call new elections. He really does need to get in front of this and put a lot of distance between the story and his government. It's hard to do that in partnership with the party that caused all of this.

Nah, Kurz can only gain from mad Strache voters. At the time of recording, they were not partners, and plus, such dirty campaigning is known to be used across Austria's left.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silberstein-Aff%C3%A4re

(Just right click and translate to English, sadly I don't think there is an English version)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Double Carpet on May 18, 2019, 08:03:58 am
All happening today, just watching the end of the election results in Australia!

Tender thanks for all the updates and a question for you, why would Kurz hold off holding the election until Sep/Oct if he collapses the coalition, isn't that a bit risky?

Why not hold the election in late June or is that too tight a timetable under Austrian election law?

Vielen dank,

DC


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 08:08:08 am
All happening today, just watching the end of the election results in Australia!

Tender thanks for all the updates and a question for you, why would Kurz hold off holding the election until Sep/Oct if he collapses the coalition, isn't that a bit risky?

Why not hold the election in late June or is that too tight a timetable under Austrian election law?

Vielen dank,

DC

Too tight.

The Austrian election calendar is ca. 80-90 days long (I would have to look it up) starting the day the parliament is dissolved and a new election is set.

So, the earliest date would be in August, if the parliament decides next week already to hold a new election.

But nobody would ever vote in August or early September because of the summer vacation for students. Only if students are back in school and the parents back home from vacation and that's in mid-September.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 08:11:40 am
All happening today, just watching the end of the election results in Australia!

Tender thanks for all the updates and a question for you, why would Kurz hold off holding the election until Sep/Oct if he collapses the coalition, isn't that a bit risky?

Why not hold the election in late June or is that too tight a timetable under Austrian election law?

Vielen dank,

DC

Too tight.

The Austrian election calendar is ca. 80-90 days long (I would have to look it up) starting the day the parliament is dissolved and a new election is set.

So, the earliest date would be in August, if the parliament decides next week already to hold a new election.

But nobody would ever vote in August or early September because of the summer vacation for students. Only if students are back in school and the parents back home from vacation and that's in mid-September.

What is your personal hope, a continuation with Hofer or new elections?

I basically see any coalition breakdown only resulting in a new "emasculated" Kurz without all the good immigration/benefit cuts in favour of citizens/longtime residents, which I personally hold very dear to my heart (even though I'm a relatively new immigrant lol).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Double Carpet on May 18, 2019, 08:14:45 am
Thanks Tender yes that makes sense - I bet he wishes it was Denmark where you can have a 3 week campaign!

What's your gut feel, will Kurz collapse the coalition and go for new elections or will he just have new FPO ministers and keep black-blue (or turquoise-blue?!) going?

Is OVP + Greens/Neos a realistic outcome of a Sep/Oct election?

Many thanks again,

DC


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 08:14:47 am
All happening today, just watching the end of the election results in Australia!

Tender thanks for all the updates and a question for you, why would Kurz hold off holding the election until Sep/Oct if he collapses the coalition, isn't that a bit risky?

Why not hold the election in late June or is that too tight a timetable under Austrian election law?

Vielen dank,

DC

Too tight.

The Austrian election calendar is ca. 80-90 days long (I would have to look it up) starting the day the parliament is dissolved and a new election is set.

So, the earliest date would be in August, if the parliament decides next week already to hold a new election.

But nobody would ever vote in August or early September because of the summer vacation for students. Only if students are back in school and the parents back home from vacation and that's in mid-September.

What is your personal hope, a continuation with Hofer or new elections?

I basically see any coalition breakdown only resulting in a new "emasculated" Kurz without all the good immigration/benefit cuts in favour of citizens/longtime residents, which I personally hold very dear to my heart (even though I'm a relatively new immigrant lol).

I wouldn't mind both a continuation of VP-FP under Hofer (because of their good work on immigration), but only under the terms I have previously posted - nor would I mind new elections in the fall (there is only the Vorarlberg state election this fall, an easy VP-win) and later a new VP-NEOS-(Green) government.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 08:17:55 am
Thanks Tender yes that makes sense - I bet he wishes it was Denmark where you can have a 3 week campaign!

What's your gut feel, will Kurz collapse the coalition and go for new elections or will he just have new FPO ministers and keep black-blue (or turquoise-blue?!) going?

Is OVP + Greens/Neos a realistic outcome of a Sep/Oct election?

Many thanks again,

DC

A) after all, he will go for new elections after being convinced by the state Governors etc. that it is the best option for the VP.

B) yes, it is realistic.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 08:21:34 am
Meanwhile, with the Strache and Gudenus resignations today, Veronika Matiasek will become the new Vienna-leader of the FP (state elections there are planned for next year, but the SP there could take advantage of the situation as well and call early elections. After all, nobody knows that new FP-woman and the FP will start from scratch) ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 08:27:53 am
Reports are that Kurz's press statement (now long overdue) is being pushed back further and further because FP-Interior Minister Kickl is refusing to resign as well, as Kurz wants (to start over with the "new" FP).

If Kickl refuses to resign in the coming hours, new elections are more and more likely. At some point Kurz will lose patience with Kickl I guess.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: parochial boy on May 18, 2019, 08:28:23 am
llsterreich


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 08:29:43 am

At least these developments are better than the last season of Game of Thrones ... ;)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 08:30:55 am
Just resign Kickl goddamnit, I refuse to see new migration waves.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: PSOL on May 18, 2019, 08:33:02 am
This day brought me up. Thanks FP, you incompetents of the Western Europe right-wing scene.

Just resign Kickl goddamnit, I refuse to see new migration waves.

And what? Lose his perks early for party integrity? Nah, hell go crazy before his termination


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 08:37:17 am
The FP-scandal villa on Ibiza has been found on AirBnB.

I guess leftists all over Europe will see it as their new Mecca, but the price is 1.067 per night !

()

Here, you can clearly see the cocaine lines on the table:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 08:47:32 am
Going to barbecue now, will update you during the late evening ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 18, 2019, 09:24:06 am
Reports are that Kurz's press statement (now long overdue) is being pushed back further and further because FP-Interior Minister Kickl is refusing to resign as well, as Kurz wants (to start over with the "new" FP).

If Kickl refuses to resign in the coming hours, new elections are more and more likely. At some point Kurz will lose patience with Kickl I guess.

New FPO? I thought Strache was the new FPO. Somehow they keep snaking their way into government and embarrassing Austria. It's amazing that Kurtz would try to keep this clown car on the road.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on May 18, 2019, 09:32:44 am
Kurz's press statement at 7.45pm


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 18, 2019, 10:09:54 am
I hope that Kurz will finally drain the swamp.

#TakeOutTheTrashDay


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: pilskonzept on May 18, 2019, 10:16:30 am
I hope that Kurz will finally drain the swamp.

#TakeOutTheTrashDay

U kurcu, as they say in some countries that used to be part of Austria.

Isn't a coalition partner that can be blackmailed at any moment exactly what Kurz prefers?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Unimog on May 18, 2019, 10:59:02 am
this are good news from Austria.

this story is really disgusting.

i hope the people of Austria (and other European countries as well) realize, what kind of people this FP/afd/lega/fn really are.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: pilskonzept on May 18, 2019, 11:03:44 am

i hope the people of Austria (and other European countries as well) realize, what kind of people this FP/afd/lega/fn really are.

People are fully aware of that fact.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 11:25:30 am
FP and VP circles saying New Elections are now a sure thing.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: rob in cal on May 18, 2019, 11:32:11 am
 and with new elections the question is, what if the results are fairly similar to the last ones?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Laki on May 18, 2019, 11:32:43 am
this are good news from Austria.

this story is really disgusting.

i hope the people of Austria (and other European countries as well) realize, what kind of people this FP/afd/lega/fn really are.
It's one case, and those kind of #gates and all are not entirely a far-right phenomen. Centrists can do the same, i mean, and you'll find corrupt and fake politicians in every layer, and on every side of the political spectrum. It's sad, but it's the task to cleanse the world from those swamps as much as possible, at a continuous and rapid rate.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 11:35:55 am
and with new elections the question is, what if the results are fairly similar to the last ones?

As Tender said, Greens Neos and Kurz is most likely.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Beezer on May 18, 2019, 11:44:07 am
this are good news from Austria.

this story is really disgusting.

i hope the people of Austria (and other European countries as well) realize, what kind of people this FP/afd/lega/fn really are.

What kind of people are they? Do you believe Europe's mainstream parties are beacons of integrity? At least here in Germany there is a revolving door between parliament and various companies/lobbying groups.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 11:52:29 am
this are good news from Austria.

this story is really disgusting.

i hope the people of Austria (and other European countries as well) realize, what kind of people this FP/afd/lega/fn really are.

What kind of people are they? Do you believe Europe's mainstream parties are beacons of integrity? At least here in Germany there is a revolving door between parliament and various companies/lobbying groups.

Fully agree.

Not long ago, the SP was caught employing a "dirty campaign architect", who was later arrested and charged with multiple offences, so not much better.



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: rob in cal on May 18, 2019, 11:58:44 am
   If Kurz feels this should derail the coalition, why go for new elections, why not try to create a new coalition with the current parliament? Seems like a huge waste of time and effort and resources.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 12:05:57 pm
  If Kurz feels this should derail the coalition, why go for new elections, why not try to create a new coalition with the current parliament? Seems like a huge waste of time and effort and resources.

Back from barbecue.

Because SP, NEOS, Now have all said they won't work with Kurz (at least not until new elections are held).

Kurz statement now planned in ca. 30 minutes.

President Van der Bellen will speak about an hour later.

Under Austrian law, the Chancellor can dismiss a cabinet member and ask the President to sign it off. The dismissal handshake between VdB and Strache should be sweet.

:P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 12:17:19 pm
According to all media reports, new elections in the fall are about 99% certain.

The FP is not willing to sacrifice Interior Minister Kickl as well today for a resignation, as Kurz demands.

Therefore, it seems Kurz will announce the breakup of VP-FP in half an hour.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 18, 2019, 12:17:37 pm
and with new elections the question is, what if the results are fairly similar to the last ones?

As Tender said, Greens Neos and Kurz is most likely.

This somehow reminds me of Hamburg, ca. 2004. Von Beust fired Schill (although a video of Schill consuming cocaine in Brazil wouldn't emerge until many years later :P ), the coalition broke apart, there was a snap election, and the first CDU-Green coalition on the state level was subsequently formed.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 12:18:15 pm
  If Kurz feels this should derail the coalition, why go for new elections, why not try to create a new coalition with the current parliament? Seems like a huge waste of time and effort and resources.

Back from barbecue.

Because SP, NEOS, Now have all said they won't work with Kurz (at least not until new elections are held).

Kurz statement now planned in ca. 30 minutes.

President Van der Bellen will speak about an hour later.

Under Austrian law, the Chancellor can dismiss a cabinet member and ask the President to sign it off. The dismissal handshake between VdB and Strache should be sweet.

:P

Don't you fear a Green Red Pink government?

I don't think you will like their open door/money for all policies...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 12:27:17 pm
  If Kurz feels this should derail the coalition, why go for new elections, why not try to create a new coalition with the current parliament? Seems like a huge waste of time and effort and resources.

Back from barbecue.

Because SP, NEOS, Now have all said they won't work with Kurz (at least not until new elections are held).

Kurz statement now planned in ca. 30 minutes.

President Van der Bellen will speak about an hour later.

Under Austrian law, the Chancellor can dismiss a cabinet member and ask the President to sign it off. The dismissal handshake between VdB and Strache should be sweet.

:P

Don't you fear a Green Red Pink government?

I don't think you will like their open door/money for all policies...

I think Red+Green+Pink will not get a majority.

And while the SP and Green immigration policy is troubling (with VP+FP, a sense of normality returned to the country on that issue), NEOS would serve as a corrective in such a government, so that mostly skilled people can come to the country and not a lot of money is spent on immigration and welfare.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 18, 2019, 12:28:49 pm
What kind of people are they? Do you believe Europe's mainstream parties are beacons of integrity?

#BothSides


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 12:33:27 pm
Here you can watch Chancellor Kurz's statement in ca. 10 minutes:

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/Statement-von-Bundeskanzler-Sebastian-Kurz-OeVP-zur-Regierungskrise/14015119


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 18, 2019, 12:33:30 pm
Why wouldn't Kurz just go back to an emaciated but possibly cleansed FPO after the new elections? Why would he instinctively pivot left to the greens when pivoting right comes so easily to him?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 12:36:37 pm
Why wouldn't Kurz just go back to an emaciated but possibly cleansed FPO after the new elections? Why would he instinctively pivot left to the greens when pivoting right comes so easily to him?

I guess we cannot rule it out, but he probably doesn't want to make the same mistake again (the FP will very likely never be "cleansed", there will always be so-called "unique cases" of anti-semitism etc.)

A strengthened VP and Kurz with 40%+ would have a very easy time with the Greens and NEOS at around 8-10% each. See Salzburg state elections last year and aftermath. That government here now enjoys 75-80% approval ratings.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 18, 2019, 12:42:13 pm
Why wouldn't Kurz just go back to an emaciated but possibly cleansed FPO after the new elections? Why would he instinctively pivot left to the greens when pivoting right comes so easily to him?

I guess we cannot rule it out, but he probably doesn't want to make the same mistake again (the FP will very likely never be "cleansed", there will always be so-called "unique cases" of anti-semitism etc.)

A strengthened VP and Kurz with 40%+ would have a very easy time with the Greens and NEOS at around 8-10% each. See Salzburg state elections last year and aftermath. That government here now enjoys 75-80% approval ratings.

The FPO is kind of like the hot stove that you kind of compulsively continue touching. At some point normal people, and so normal countries, stop touching. But the fact that Austrian leaders keep going back to the FPO despite getting burned does beg some uncomfortable questions about the nature of Austrian democracy.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on May 18, 2019, 12:50:51 pm
Kurz cancels the VP-FP-coalition.
So there is a snap election.

President Van der Bellen plans to speak at 8.35pm.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on May 18, 2019, 12:52:00 pm
Kurz: "enough is enough"


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 18, 2019, 12:55:43 pm
Good, it's done.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 01:05:09 pm
Very good (campaign) speech by Kurz.

He said he was proud of their work so far, after years of "stagnation" and "unwillingness to work for the country".

But was ashamed of the constant "unique cases of anti-semitism, the rat-poem and the video yesterday. The FP is hurting our reform project for the country."

Continuing the government with the FP "is not possible right now, as he sees no intention after talks with key FP people today that they would change their behaviour on Russia and anti-semitism over the next weeks or months."

He "asks every voter to join him in the next months to continue the centrist work for the country that the VP has initiated."

"Enough is enough. New elections as soon as possible." (that will be mid-September)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-leader Strache resigns)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 18, 2019, 01:05:19 pm

The second shortest government in post war history still lasted far too long. At least this should bury the FPO for another decade until it finds it way back into government.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 01:14:27 pm
Wow, I'm so excited now for the 1st couple polls for the EU election and the upcoming federal election in September ... :)

I guess the FP drops to 8-14% in the next few polls (which will be the EU result for them), but recovers slightly to ~15% for the more important federal election then.

VP/Kurz will gain most out of their downfall, but also the other parties somewhat.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 01:20:17 pm
NYT:

"Austrian Leader Calls for Snap Election After Far-Right Vice-Chancellor Resigns."

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/18/world/europe/austria-strache-resigns-video.html

"Highlights From the Video That Brought Down Austrias Vice-Chancellor."

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/18/world/europe/austria-video-strache.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 01:29:50 pm
My prediction for the next polls that will be released:

40-42% VP (+7)
29-31% SP (+3)
10-12% FP (-12)
  8-10% NEOS (+1)
    5-7% Greens (n.c.)
    0-2% NOW (n.c.)
    1-3% Others (+1)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Laki on May 18, 2019, 02:06:34 pm
Well, a move I appreciate from Kurz. He seems like a good dude for a center-right politician.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Mike88 on May 18, 2019, 02:17:36 pm
Didn't a similar situation happened in 2002? FPO colapse followed by a huge win of OVP?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 18, 2019, 02:21:17 pm
Didn't a similar situation happened in 2002? FPO colapse followed by a huge win of OVP?

There certainly have been a lot of comparisons to that in Austrian media this evening. (Just watched two hours of ORF live stream.)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 02:42:40 pm
You certainly have to credit Kurz for the swift actions and his decision to terminate the coalition that he was so proud of.

When he took office (and he repeated it in his speech today), he said: I will stay true to myself and the voters.

Which he did today, acknowledging that he didnt break up the coalition earlier when the FP fu**ed up time and time again, to give them a chance to prevail themselves - as they were the only coalition partner for the VP after the election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 03:12:39 pm
With Kurz and Hofer leading their parties into the new elections, they could be challenged by 4 female opposition leaders:

Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SP)
Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
Nina Tomaselli (Greens)
Maria Stern (Now)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 03:29:00 pm
Interesting fact:

In the 1999 election, turnout was 80.4% - but in the early 2002 VP landslide after the FP collapse then, it increased to 84.3%

I wonder if this will be the case in the fall as well (turnout was 80% in 2017) ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 18, 2019, 03:33:14 pm
Regarding the question who was behind honey-trapping Strache and filming the video, the FP today originated the conspiracy theory that a foreign intelligence agency may have orchestrated it.

But there may be a far more mundane explanation. Currently, the person who is confirmed to have had the earliest knowledge of the video's existence is German satirist Jan Bhmermann, whose awareness of the video apparently preceded that SPIEGEL's and the Sddeutsche Zeitung's (who broke the story yesterday) by at least several weeks.

Of course, the easiest explanation for Bhmermann being aware of the video's existence prior to the news organizations who broke story is that Bhmermann himself was the orchestrator of the whole thing. A not totally outlandish theory considering that he was also the originator of the "Varoufakis fake middle finger video" a couple of years ago, something that he only admitted to sometime after the fact.

Add to that the very recent Bhmermann interview in Austrian television in which he harshly criticized the Austrian government and which caused a minor scandal in itself (the ORF thought it prudent to explicitly distance itself from Bhmermann's remarks). Add to that Bhmermann singlehandedly brought down Germany's law that forbids insulting foreign leaders after deliberating insulting Erdogan in his television show.

Personally, I would characterize Bhmermann as an egocentric jackass with an IQ of at least 140 who never plays by the rules (or laws for that matter), so it's certainly possible that he did it. It would fit his modus operandi, so to speak.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 03:41:54 pm
It is certainly possible that Bhmermann is behind it ... but he should probably not confirm it (if he doesnt want to end up as a corpse in a trash can, being put down by a Russian or Bosnian hitman hired by Strache or Gudenus (Gudenus studied in Russia and his wife is Bosnian) ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Lechasseur on May 18, 2019, 03:53:41 pm
When will the next election be?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 04:19:35 pm
It is certainly possible that Bhmermann is behind it ... but he should probably not confirm it (if he doesnt want to end up as a corpse in a trash can, being put down by a Russian or Bosnian Serbian hitman hired by Strache or Gudenus (Gudenus studied in Russia and his wife is Bosnian Serbian ) ...

Bosnian means someone from Bosnia, which includes Bosniaks, who are Muslims and not big fans of him, so I'll correct it for you.

Hope they don't escalate this further. Gudenus and Strache made their own beds, so they shouldn't make things worse.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: pilskonzept on May 18, 2019, 05:03:37 pm
It is certainly possible that Bhmermann is behind it ... but he should probably not confirm it (if he doesnt want to end up as a corpse in a trash can, being put down by a Russian or Bosnian Serbian hitman hired by Strache or Gudenus (Gudenus studied in Russia and his wife is Bosnian Serbian ) ...

Bosnian means someone from Bosnia, which includes Bosniaks, who are Muslims and not big fans of him, so I'll correct it for you.

Hope they don't escalate this further. Gudenus and Strache made their own beds, so they shouldn't make things worse.


Gudenus' wife is Bosnian Serb, but yes, the FP's loss of power runs against Serbian interests.

As to the Russians...I guess they are as likely to take out Strache and Gudenus for getting caught? Would be a very different thing if Bhmermann was Russian or ex-Soviet and thus seen as a traitor.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on May 18, 2019, 05:29:27 pm
And btw,
is Kurz gay and participates to orgies like Strache claimed?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 on May 18, 2019, 05:49:54 pm
And btw,
is Kurz gay and participates to orgies like Strache claimed?

wha?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Omega21 on May 18, 2019, 06:25:09 pm
It is certainly possible that Bhmermann is behind it ... but he should probably not confirm it (if he doesnt want to end up as a corpse in a trash can, being put down by a Russian or Bosnian Serbian hitman hired by Strache or Gudenus (Gudenus studied in Russia and his wife is Bosnian Serbian ) ...

Bosnian means someone from Bosnia, which includes Bosniaks, who are Muslims and not big fans of him, so I'll correct it for you.

Hope they don't escalate this further. Gudenus and Strache made their own beds, so they shouldn't make things worse.


Gudenus' wife is Bosnian Serb, but yes, the FP's loss of power runs against Serbian interests.

As to the Russians...I guess they are as likely to take out Strache and Gudenus for getting caught? Would be a very different thing if Bhmermann was Russian or ex-Soviet and thus seen as a traitor.

The people in the video are actors, not oligarchs, and the villa was rented on Airbnb. (not some conspiracy, it was already in the original article that published it).  

So, someone hired actors, rented the cars and the villa, and set the whole thing up, which would not be good for that person's health if Russia is interested enough in finding out who smeared a Russian friendly party.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 11:29:55 pm

The most likely date for the new election is Sept. 20 - a date which would be after the summer vacation, but not too late.

And it is the date of the Vorarlberg state election, so the 2 elections could be merged (Vorarlberg Governor Wallner yesterday said he thinks that would be OK).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2019, 11:38:38 pm
The 3 important state elections planned for 2020 (Vienna, Steiermark and Burgenland) could all be moved up to the fall of this year now, because the SP could take advantage of the collapsing FP in Vienna and Burgenland and the VP in Steiermark.

So, 2019 could end up as a Super Election Year (1x EU, 1x Federal, 4x State Elections) ... :)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: rob in cal on May 19, 2019, 12:46:19 am
   Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway. 
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2019, 02:05:57 am
   Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway. 
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

VP-FP only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because VP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the VP was also not really a big fan of it either).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Lord Halifax on May 19, 2019, 04:36:20 am
   Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway. 
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

VP-FP only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because VP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the VP was also not really a big fan of it either).

Why are the Greens against direct democracy?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Laki on May 19, 2019, 05:10:39 am
   Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway. 
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

VP-FP only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because VP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the VP was also not really a big fan of it either).

Why are the Greens against direct democracy?

because it hurts them, direct democracy often leads to populism and referendums where people reject the establishment.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: pilskonzept on May 19, 2019, 06:42:54 am
The people in the video are actors, not oligarchs, and the villa was rented on Airbnb. (not some conspiracy, it was already in the original article that published it).  

So, someone hired actors, rented the cars and the villa, and set the whole thing up, which would not be good for that person's health if Russia is interested enough in finding out who smeared a Russian friendly party.

Affecting western citizens' physical health - as opposed to destroying their reputation or career - does not fit the Russian services' MO. Collateral damage excluded, of course.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Lechasseur on May 19, 2019, 07:14:47 am
  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

VP-FP only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because VP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the VP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The VP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the VP doesn't win a majority by itself la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FP after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SP, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for VP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FP and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: tack50 on May 19, 2019, 07:30:50 am
With the Greens sure, but an VP-NEOS coalition I think wouldn't hurt the VP that much, just like CDU-FDP didn't hurt the CDU that much while the endless CDU-SPD coalitions did


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Lechasseur on May 19, 2019, 07:53:23 am
With the Greens sure, but an VP-NEOS coalition I think wouldn't hurt the VP that much, just like CDU-FDP didn't hurt the CDU that much while the endless CDU-SPD coalitions did

Agreed, I was more thinking about entering coalition with the GREENS in particular. OVP/NEOS would be fine, but OVP/Greens I think would lead to a meltdown for the Greens and would have the OVP finish 3rd behind the SPO and the FPO in 2024 (or whenever the next election after 2019 would take place), nobody would like that type of coalition.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Omega21 on May 19, 2019, 11:05:50 am
Russian Businessman/Oligarch, Igor Makarov, announced he will use all possible legal options to shed light on the woman who used his name falsely (posing as his niece).

I assume she is already somewhere in the Western sphere of Influence, as going back to Russia would not be a very smart move.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2019, 11:20:42 am
  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

VP-FP only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because VP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the VP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The VP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the VP doesn't win a majority by itself la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FP after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SP, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for VP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FP and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.

Kurz could definitely go for VP-NEOS-Greens.

That's because we will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FP over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating VP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as VP-FP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on May 19, 2019, 11:31:06 am
Also the current Landeshauptmann of the Burgenland, Doskozil (SP), calls for a snap election. 
Actual there is a SP-FP-coalition.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2019, 11:33:27 am
Also the current Landeshauptmann of the Burgenland, Doskozil (SP), calls for a snap election. 
Actual there is a SP-FP-coalition.

The date will be announced tomorrow. Probably in January 2020, instead of the regular May 2020.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Omega21 on May 19, 2019, 11:38:44 am
So, we can kiss direct democracy goodbye? :(


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2019, 11:45:03 am
So, we can kiss direct democracy goodbye? :(

As I explained to rob in cal, this was always more of a background issue for VP/FP and was only on the table for 2022 + with high hurdles of 900.000 signatures to force a referendum.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2019, 11:52:28 am
More pictures from the SP's demo event in front of Strache's office:

()

()

()

()

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Lechasseur on May 19, 2019, 12:26:47 pm
  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

VP-FP only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because VP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the VP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The VP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the VP doesn't win a majority by itself la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FP after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SP, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for VP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FP and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.

Kurz could definitely go for VP-NEOS-Greens.

That's because we will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FP over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating VP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as VP-FP.

Sounds like the VP is no better than the German CDU after all.

I'm back on the FP train then.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: rob in cal on May 19, 2019, 12:48:20 pm
  I"m still intrigued about the FPO under Hofer, and thinking he might be able to right the ship, and if he does, Kurz's vision of an OVP with near 40% of the vote is not happening.  Maybe I'm thinking too much about his solid performance as Presidential candidate in 2016.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Omega21 on May 19, 2019, 01:01:08 pm
  I"m still intrigued about the FPO under Hofer, and thinking he might be able to right the ship, and if he does, Kurz's vision of an OVP with near 40% of the vote is not happening.  Maybe I'm thinking too much about his solid performance as Presidential candidate in 2016.

He is considered very calm and "moderate", and he's had very few (probably none at all?) controversies, so yes, he would definitely be better than Kickl.

  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

VP-FP only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because VP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the VP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The VP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the VP doesn't win a majority by itself la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FP after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SP, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for VP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FP and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.

Kurz could definitely go for VP-NEOS-Greens.

That's because we will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FP over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating VP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as VP-FP.

Sounds like the VP is no better than the German CDU after all.

I'm back on the FP train then.

And yes, I also agree.

Hopefully, Hofer can bring some change to the FP to clear their name.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2019, 01:43:38 pm
Norbert Hofer elected new FP-leader in a secret party meeting tonight (unanimously).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2019, 02:56:35 pm


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2019, 10:51:29 pm
Kurz to ask VdB (today, or in the next days) to dismiss Kickl as FP-Interior Minister.

VdB agrees that Kickl has to go.

If that happens, Hofer has said that all FP cabinet members will resign ...

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/herbert-kickl-steht-vor-vorzeitiger-abloese-als-innenminister/400499266

I think we can say now that another VP-FP coalition after the September election is DOA.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: bigic on May 19, 2019, 11:52:44 pm
It would be a minority caretaker VP gov't?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: rob in cal on May 20, 2019, 01:14:58 am
  It seems as if Kurz was set on the OVP retaking the interior ministry no matter what, even if Kickl resigned he would not have allowed a new FPO member taking over, if what I read in some of the reporting is correct.  This implies that Kurz was intending the Strache affair as a justification for a major shakeup in the coalition, as control of the interior ministry was the key point for the FPO in the first place.
   


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Sir Mohamed on May 20, 2019, 01:35:16 am
What's the best likely govt outcome after the election? Another OVP and FPO coalition with the latter in a weaker position? From what I've read, Strache is a traitor. But claims to be a patriot, just LOL.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on May 20, 2019, 06:06:48 am
First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ sterreich:

VP: 38% (+4)
SP: 26% (+1)
FP: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on May 20, 2019, 06:08:37 am
First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ sterreich:

VP: 38% (+4)
SP: 26% (+1)
FP: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week
Exactly what I expected, FPO between 15% and 20%


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: urutzizu on May 20, 2019, 06:08:55 am
First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ sterreich:

VP: 38% (+4)
SP: 26% (+1)
FP: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week



Sure that that poll was not taken at least partly before the Ibiza affair? If not, FP voters seem to be very loyal...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on May 20, 2019, 06:12:08 am
First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ sterreich:

VP: 38% (+4)
SP: 26% (+1)
FP: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week



Sure that that poll was not taken at least partly before the Ibiza affair? If not, FP voters seem to be very loyal...
I think FPO has a ceiling at 15%


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on May 20, 2019, 06:16:10 am
First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ sterreich:

VP: 38% (+4)
SP: 26% (+1)
FP: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week



Sure that that poll was not taken at least partly before the Ibiza affair? If not, FP voters seem to be very loyal...

Yes, I'm sure.

survey period:
May 18-20

oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/1-Umfrage-FPOe-stuerzt-brutal-ab/380879718


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on May 20, 2019, 06:21:43 am
Snap election in Burgenland: 26th January 2020


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (May 18: FP-Strache out, new election called)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 20, 2019, 06:22:29 am
  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

VP-FP only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because VP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the VP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The VP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the VP doesn't win a majority by itself la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FP after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SP, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for VP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FP and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.

Kurz could definitely go for VP-NEOS-Greens.

That's because we will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FP over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating VP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as VP-FP.

Sounds like the VP is no better than the German CDU after all.

I'm back on the FP train then.

You definitely pick winners.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: pilskonzept on May 20, 2019, 06:26:14 am
First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ sterreich:

VP: 38% (+4)
SP: 26% (+1)
FP: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week



Sure that that poll was not taken at least partly before the Ibiza affair? If not, FP voters seem to be very loyal...

Yes, I'm sure.

survey period:
May 18-20

oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/1-Umfrage-FPOe-stuerzt-brutal-ab/380879718


You'd probably see a sharper drop in raw numbers.

Snap election in Burgenland: 26th January 2020

Takes the snap out of "snap election", doesn't it? Why such a long time on life support?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 20, 2019, 06:28:38 am
First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ sterreich:

VP: 38% (+4)
SP: 26% (+1)
FP: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week
Exactly what I expected, FPO between 15% and 20%

As I said, FPO voters are not easily transferable to OVP because many of them are just as bothered by the OVP as by the Socialists. As it is in France, by the way. Kurz tried pivoting well to the right, and this is where it got him. If that's what he truly believes then maybe he'll have to find a way to open up to the FPO crazies once again. And if he's more ideological malleable maybe he'll have to open up to a grand-coalition of sorts, which would make sense given his speech the other night.

In either case I don't think Tender's vision of an OVP-Greens-NEOS government is quite so simple. In this poll it would be tight, but doable. Who knows what would actually happen in a few months, especially if the SPO pick off Green voters.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on May 20, 2019, 06:46:04 am
First opinion poll after the ibiza affair:

Research Affairs for TZ sterreich:

VP: 38% (+4)
SP: 26% (+1)
FP: 18% (-5)
NEOS: 9% (+1)
GRNE: 5%
JETZT: 2%
Others: 2% (-1)

+/- compared to the poll released last week



Sure that that poll was not taken at least partly before the Ibiza affair? If not, FP voters seem to be very loyal...

Yes, I'm sure.

survey period:
May 18-20

oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/1-Umfrage-FPOe-stuerzt-brutal-ab/380879718


You'd probably see a sharper drop in raw numbers.

Snap election in Burgenland: 26th January 2020

Takes the snap out of "snap election", doesn't it? Why such a long time on life support?

Ok. It' not really "snap". Better I call it "early election"?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: pilskonzept on May 20, 2019, 06:54:48 am
Ok. It' not really "snap". Better I call it "early election"?

Well, it's just four months early. What made Doskozil choose that date? Something like, the latest date acceptable to SP and the earliest date aceeptable to FP?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on May 20, 2019, 07:21:50 am
He said, that he choose this later date because he don't want that the "dirty campain" of the general election have an impact on the election campain for the Burgenland election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2019, 08:05:54 am
The FP said they are open to supporting a no-confidence vote against Kurz if he insists on firing Kickl. Not one of their own, but for example if SP or Neos or Now initiates one.

Now it's getting funny ...

Btw, I do not fully believe this new poll. The FP is probably much lower now. Research Affairs was also biased towards the FP in the past.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on May 20, 2019, 08:37:10 am
Peter Pilz (Jetzt/Now) already announced a no-confidence vote.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: bigic on May 20, 2019, 10:23:58 am
What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 20, 2019, 10:37:46 am
What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: urutzizu on May 20, 2019, 10:40:37 am
What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.
Only the President can dissolve the National Council. If the no-confidence vote goes through he will probably appoint another intrim goverment until september.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2019, 10:45:23 am
Kurz with a press statement at 6:30pm ... in ca. 45 minutes ... about what to do with Kickl.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 20, 2019, 11:04:18 am
Kurz with a press statement at 6:30pm ... in ca. 45 minutes ... about what to do with Kickl.

He's backed himself into a corner, though. Anything short of firing Kicki would have horrible optics.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 20, 2019, 11:06:11 am
What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.
Only the President can dissolve the National Council. If the no-confidence vote goes through he will probably appoint another intrim goverment until september.

So the president could refuse any request to dissolve parliament? Would that be far outside the norms of the presidency?

I'm trying to figure out why anyone would threaten a no confidence vote when new elections have already been called.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2019, 11:37:33 am
Kurz just announced that he will kick out Kickl from the cabinet and has already told him so at a recent meeting.

Kurz has also talked with President VdB (because it is the President who ultimately needs to fire a cabinet member after the Chancellor declares so).

Kurz now expects the FP to withdraw every cabinet member from the government, which he'll try to fill with independent experts for the next 6 months or so until the new government is formed.

Kurz: "The FP has destroyed our successful government work."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2019, 11:44:33 am
Even though the FP is flirting with the no-confidence vote against Kurz initiated by NOW, it is far from certain that for example the SP and/or NEOS will back it as well.

SP and NEOS are in a "stability trap": Austrians want stability over the next months, so they certainly would not like SP/NEOS to take Kurz down for political power gambling. They would be punished during the elections.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: bigic on May 20, 2019, 12:00:33 pm
- VP obviously won't back the no-confidence vote.
- SP, Neos, Jetzt and the two independents don't have enough votes.
- Still not enough if the SP is replaced by the FP.

-> If there are no defections, the majority for a non-confidence vote must include both SP and FP. And since these two parties have a majority, the votes of other parties are effectively irrelevant.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2019, 12:12:52 pm
Kurz explains the firing of Interior Minister Kickl with the fact that "it's impossible that he remains in charge of future investigations against his own party in Ibiza-Gate".


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: urutzizu on May 20, 2019, 12:13:17 pm
What actually happens if the no confidence vote gets through, when Kurz has already announced new elections?

Don't they have to actually, formally vote for new elections? In which case they could conceivably refuse to dissolve the government and vote for an SPO government instead? That doesn't seem right, though. Somehow an FPO-SPO coalition doesn't quite seem like the most stable thing in the world.
Only the President can dissolve the National Council. If the no-confidence vote goes through he will probably appoint another intrim goverment until september.

So the president could refuse any request to dissolve parliament? Would that be far outside the norms of the presidency?

I'm trying to figure out why anyone would threaten a no confidence vote when new elections have already been called.

He could, but in practice he most likely would not. The Bundesprsident is on paper about as powerful as the french president, but in reality only very rarely interferes in day-to-day politics.
As for your second question, it is mostly a symbolic act to humiliate the goverment and to tie Kurz to the scandal.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2019, 12:20:33 pm
With the FP getting serious now to pull out all of their remaining 4 cabinet members + 1 state secretary (Strache and Kickl are already out), the best thing Kurz could do now is to find some kind of truce with the other opposition parties (the FP is now an opposition party again) and appoint independent experts who are let's say "SP-affiliated" (for the Health Ministry), or "Green-affiliated" (for the Infrastructure Ministry) and "NEOS-affiliated" (for the Interior Ministry) or something, to keep his options open for after the elections ...

Otherwise, Kurz may win the election big - but will face roadblocks in forming a new government.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2019, 12:26:51 pm
BREAKING NEWS:

All FP-cabinet members are leaving Kurz's VP-FP government, after Kurz said an hour ago that he will fire Interior Minister Kickl (FP).

The FP will also prepare their own no-confidence vote for Kurz, after the party "NOW" has already announced one.

Link (https://derstandard.at/jetzt/livebericht/2000103456714/redcontent/1000155943/entscheidung-zu-entlassung-kickls-und-zukunft-der-fpoe-minister-naht)

That was quick.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 20, 2019, 12:35:17 pm
Take Out The Trash Day 2: Electric Kickloo


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: tack50 on May 20, 2019, 12:48:19 pm
Even though the FP is flirting with the no-confidence vote against Kurz initiated by NOW, it is far from certain that for example the SP and/or NEOS will back it as well.

SP and NEOS are in a "stability trap": Austrians want stability over the next months, so they certainly would not like SP/NEOS to take Kurz down for political power gambling. They would be punished during the elections.

Do no-confidence votes require an "alternative candidate" like in Spain or Germany? Or is it just a new election happening anyways?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on May 20, 2019, 02:51:49 pm
I guess SPO and Greens will abstain


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: rob in cal on May 20, 2019, 03:12:30 pm
But what I'm still wondering about is whether Kurz actually would have let the FPO to name another FPO member as a new interior minister or whether there could be no new FPO interior minster because it would a conflict of intrest for the Ibiza investigation.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 20, 2019, 03:36:42 pm
As it was outlined by Kurz himself on Saturday, this was more of "the straw that broke the camel's back" moment for the FP. Nevertheless, I'm still astonished at the speed this government is self-destructing now. Unless they reform radically and quickly the FP will probably barred from power for quite some time now, and as far as the VP is concerned it's still somewhat unclear whether they will mainly benefit from this or whether they will be consumed by it as well.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Omega21 on May 20, 2019, 03:43:31 pm
As it was outlined by Kurz himself on Saturday, this was more of "the straw that broke the camel's back" moment for the FP. Nevertheless, I'm still astonished at the speed this government is self-destructing now. Unless they reform radically and quickly the FP will probably barred from power for quite some time now, and as far as the VP is concerned it's still somewhat unclear whether they will mainly benefit from this or whether they will be consumed by it as well.

There's no reason why they would suffer, they bear no responsibility for something someone not in their party did before he held any Government office.

Btw. do you have 2 profiles now? I remember seeing the same name just on a newer profile


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: rob in cal on May 20, 2019, 03:52:52 pm
  As I see it one danger for the OVP is that unless they do really well in the elections, they will be scrambling to get a working coalition going after September, assuming Kurz doesn't want the SPO. I wonder about an OVP minority government in such a scenario.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 20, 2019, 04:13:49 pm
Btw. do you have 2 profiles now? I remember seeing the same name just on a newer profile

That's not me.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: parochial boy on May 20, 2019, 04:37:59 pm
As it was outlined by Kurz himself on Saturday, this was more of "the straw that broke the camel's back" moment for the FP. Nevertheless, I'm still astonished at the speed this government is self-destructing now. Unless they reform radically and quickly the FP will probably barred from power for quite some time now, and as far as the VP is concerned it's still somewhat unclear whether they will mainly benefit from this or whether they will be consumed by it as well.
Exactly, the FP's Putin fanboy act has never exactly been a secret, and when you add in the other scandals, the attempts to undermine the independence of Austria's institutions, and so on... it's not exactly hard to get to the accusation that Kurz enabled all this - and out of sheer opportunitism as well


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Omega21 on May 20, 2019, 07:48:39 pm
Former BND Director (German CIA) commented on the recent events.

"Offenkundig wird hier versucht, Wahlen zu manipulieren"

"Obviously this is an attempt to manipulate elections"

https://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/videos/politik/Offenkundig-wird-hier-versucht-Wahlen-zu-manipulieren-article21035713.html?fbclid=IwAR15IfgFkKnR1XiTG2WzboPtXv4WD7XlUUZ03Iuvy5EAh0xFm4REucZp6qs


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 20, 2019, 11:03:12 pm
The next special meeting of parliament will take place next week after the EU election, so FP, SP and Co. can figure out what to do with Kurz in the meantime.

Impeach him or not ?

In case a majority of MPs vote yes, Kurz is ousted as Chancellor and would have to resign. President VdB would have to appoint a new, independent caretaker Chancellor for the next 4-6 months or so, until the new government is formed.

The ousting of Kurz would not mean his end (he could still win the election and come back), but it would still be a humiliation for him, being rejected in parliament ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 02:07:07 am
The FP just announced that they will definitely vote for the Kurz no-confidence proposal by the party "NOW" next week.

The big question will be how the SP decides ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Diouf on May 21, 2019, 02:16:04 am
Apparently Strache was suspicious at one moment during the meeting with the Russian, and wondered out loud whether it could be a trap because the Russian women had dirt under her feet nail, "Russians in this league does not have dirty feet".


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 21, 2019, 02:43:10 am
Apparently Strache was suspicious at one moment during the meeting with the Russian, and wondered out loud whether it could be a trap because the Russian women had dirt under her feet nail, "Russians in this league does not have dirty feet".

A classic Trumpism. :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 21, 2019, 02:51:00 am
Former BND Director (German CIA) commented on the recent events.

"Offenkundig wird hier versucht, Wahlen zu manipulieren"

"Obviously this is an attempt to manipulate elections"

https://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/videos/politik/Offenkundig-wird-hier-versucht-Wahlen-zu-manipulieren-article21035713.html?fbclid=IwAR15IfgFkKnR1XiTG2WzboPtXv4WD7XlUUZ03Iuvy5EAh0xFm4REucZp6qs

There were also attempts to manipulate the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Brexit referendum, albeit in favour of the right-wing populists. What happened now is that someone took "both sides do it" quite literally and brought it to its logical conclusion: Information warfare.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on May 21, 2019, 07:07:35 am
As it was outlined by Kurz himself on Saturday, this was more of "the straw that broke the camel's back" moment for the FP. Nevertheless, I'm still astonished at the speed this government is self-destructing now. Unless they reform radically and quickly the FP will probably barred from power for quite some time now, and as far as the VP is concerned it's still somewhat unclear whether they will mainly benefit from this or whether they will be consumed by it as well.

There's no reason why they would suffer, they bear no responsibility for something someone not in their party did before he held any Government office.

Btw. do you have 2 profiles now? I remember seeing the same name just on a newer profile

Sorry, that's me.
I'm new here. Since I was reading for a long time I created a profil last year. Actually I want to choose a unique name and don't want to confuse anybody.
Now I renamed my display name and created a signature to make it clearer that Ye Olde Europe and me are two different Users.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 11:01:01 am
Update:

A vote of no-confidence against Kurz has been set for Monday. JETZT/NOW will introduce the vote, but NEOS will vote against (out of stability reasons). It is unclear what the SP will do. In the morning, the FP said they will back it, now everything is unsure again.

President VdB today dismissed all FP cabinet members except Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl (an Independent presented by the FP). She has said she would like to continue over the next months and VdB accepted.

Kurz will name independent experts for the void FP cabinet positions tonight and present the names to VdB.

VdB will speak to the nation at around 7:45pm and could swear in the new cabinet members tomorrow after briefly meeting with them.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 11:23:59 am
Eckart Ratz, former Supreme Court of Justice President, will follow Kickl and become the new Interior Minister:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 11:55:25 am
The 1999 Vengaboys song Going to Ibiza has reached #1 in the Austrian charts:



(In their original video btw, you can see Monica Lewinsky giving a blowjob to Bill Clinton, in the Capitol, not in the White House ... :))


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Inevitable Barbara Bollier on May 21, 2019, 11:57:04 am
The next PM will clearly be Donna Shalala (Lala).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 12:11:30 pm
Philippa Strache has abandoned her husband and moved back in with her parents and their newborn son Hendrik:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Philippa-Strache-ist-mit-Kind-ausgezogen/381024623


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 21, 2019, 12:28:14 pm
Philippa Strache has abandoned her husband and moved back in with her parents and their newborn son Hendrik:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Philippa-Strache-ist-mit-Kind-ausgezogen/381024623

#Cuck


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Omega21 on May 21, 2019, 01:17:14 pm
Philippa Strache has abandoned her husband and moved back in with her parents and their newborn son Hendrik:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Philippa-Strache-ist-mit-Kind-ausgezogen/381024623

#Cuck

C'mon now, let's not just insult people...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 01:22:44 pm
President Van der Bellen's primetime speech to the nation did not yet provide the names for the interim government, but focused more on morals.

He said that people should not lose trust in politics in disgust, that the 2 people involved in Ibiza-Gate are the exception and not the norm and encouraged people to vote in the EU election on Sunday.

He also urged politicians from all parties to be careful over the next few days and weeks and put their own party interests below the interest of citizens ("stability") and the country and its reputation abroad.

He closed with a Merkel-like: "Wir schaffen das !"


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 01:28:31 pm
Valerie Hackl is likely to become the new Infrastructure Minister, succeeding Norbert Hofer.

Hackl is a former BB (railway) manager, apppointed by former SP-Chancellor Christian Kern, now working for Austro Control (the air navigation services provider that controls Austrian airspace).

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 01:36:20 pm
Johann Luif likely to become the new Defense Minister:

()

Luif is SP-affiliated.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/neue-kurz-regierung-wird-schwarz-rot/400501456

Good chess game by Kurz. With those interim appointments it is likely that he will survive the no-confidence vote in parliament on Monday.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 02:12:04 pm
VP-NEOS-Greens or VP-Greens-NEOS ("Dirndl", or "Watermelon"-Coalition) would actually be my preferred government, ideologically.

I think the fall election will be a structural one: Currently, about 70% of Austrians think that economically they are well off. That is the highest number since pollster SPECTRA started their quarterly polling on this topic. Not surprising after GDP growth rates of 3% or so over the past 2 years.

During times of good economy, voters tend to vote more for bourgeois parties like the VP, NEOS and Greens and less for working-class parties such as the SP or FP (now even less so).

I think a majority of VP-NEOS-Greens is fairly likely, in the 55% range or something.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 02:23:25 pm
Walter Pltner, another SP-member and former Health Ministry official, to become the new Social Minister:

()

If Kurz really has picked 3 SP-affiliated people as new cabinet members, I think the SP will drop their no-confidence threat against him. But who knows ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: President Johnson on May 21, 2019, 02:27:26 pm
What happens if there is a motion of no confidence? In Germany, it works only if the Bundestag elects a new chancellor (a lesson taken from the Weimar Republic). I'm not sure it makes any sense to vote Kurz out of the chancellorship right now. Let him continue with a minority government/technocrat cabinet and wait until the new election plays out.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 02:47:24 pm
What happens if there is a motion of no confidence?

Kurz resigns as Chancellor and President VdB appoints a new interim Chancellor of his choosing until the new government is sworn in (in ca. 6 months).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Simfan34 on May 21, 2019, 02:51:54 pm
President VdB today dismissed all FP cabinet members except Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl (an Independent presented by the FP). She has said she would like to continue over the next months and VdB accepted.

Wait, so the woman who had Putin show up at her wedding is the only FP member who gets to stay in Cabinet following a scandal in which her party leader was caught attempting to collude with Russian interests?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 02:58:40 pm
President VdB today dismissed all FP cabinet members except Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl (an Independent presented by the FP). She has said she would like to continue over the next months and VdB accepted.

Wait, so the woman who had Putin show up at her wedding is the only FP member who gets to stay in Cabinet following a scandal in which her party leader was caught attempting to collude with Russian interests?

To be fair: Karin Kneissl is not an FP-member, but an Independent diplomat who speaks like 8 different languages and has lived in the Middle-East for years (the FP appointed her as Foreign Minister). Kneissl invited Putin to her wedding yes, and he accepted and came and they danced together (she said it was good manners).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: pilskonzept on May 21, 2019, 03:06:16 pm
President VdB today dismissed all FP cabinet members except Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl (an Independent presented by the FP). She has said she would like to continue over the next months and VdB accepted.

Wait, so the woman who had Putin show up at her wedding is the only FP member who gets to stay in Cabinet following a scandal in which her party leader was caught attempting to collude with Russian interests?

To be fair: Karin Kneissl is not an FP-member, but an Independent diplomat who speaks like 8 different languages and has lived in the Middle-East for years (the FP appointed her as Foreign Minister). Kneissl invited Putin to her wedding yes, and he accepted and came and they danced together (she said it was good manners).

"Well, Vladimir, feel free to to business with us. Just keep away from the shady folks, please."

Doesn't exactly fit with vdB's center-left reputation, though.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2019, 11:37:19 pm
President Van der Bellen will meet with the new cabinet members today for a brief overview and a little talk with them about their qualifications and then swear them in.

We'll see if something else happens today or not, but it would be nice if things were to focus more on the EU election on Sunday again ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: rob in cal on May 22, 2019, 01:28:07 am
  Also, its not as if the other FPO cabinet member were forced out. They resigned to protest the dismissal of Kickl.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Beezer on May 22, 2019, 04:46:52 am
What I wanna know is...why is the "v" in "Van der Bellen" capitalized?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2019, 10:58:14 am
The new cabinet was sworn in today by President Van der Bellen and after that a cabinet council meeting took place.

The interim cabinet has only 14 instead of 16 members, as Straches agendas (Sports and Civil Servants) have gone to Bogner-Strau and State Secretary Fuchs was not replaced. Now there are 8 men and 6 women vs. 10-6 before. Finance Minister Lger did become the new Vice-Chancellor.

Norbert Hofer was not only chosen as interim FP leader, but also as frontrunner for the September election, they said today.

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2019, 11:18:15 am
Does a lawyer from Vienna and a detective from Munich have something to do with the Ibiza trap ?

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/oesterreich-heisse-spur-im-ibiza-beben-war-es-dieser-anwalt-62095558.bild.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2019, 11:26:16 am
Nina Tomaselli likely to lead the Greens into the election and probably back into parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nina-tomaselli-als-gruenen-spitzenkandidatin-im-gespraech/400502236


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: President Johnson on May 22, 2019, 02:02:21 pm
Would the newly appointed ministers gone on Monday if Kurz loses the Nationalrat vote?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2019, 11:05:29 pm
Would the newly appointed ministers be gone on Monday if Kurz loses the Nationalrat vote?

This depends on the exact wording of the no-confidence vote initiated by the party NOW on Monday:

If the text says no-confidence against Kurz only, or no-confidence against the whole government.

In the first case, only Kurz would step down as Chancellor and be replaced by President VdB with an interim Chancellor (even though it is possible that some other cabinet ministers also resign in such a case).

In the second case, the whole cabinet would resign and be replaced by a selection of people from VdB.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2019, 11:26:30 pm
Does a lawyer from Vienna and a detective from Munich have something to do with the Ibiza trap ?

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/oesterreich-heisse-spur-im-ibiza-beben-war-es-dieser-anwalt-62095558.bild.html

Its almost sure now that the 2 are responsible.

https://derstandard.at/2000103643828/Mutmasslicher-Drahtzieher-des-Ibiza-Videos-war-in-Muenchner-Anwaltskanzlei-Untermieter

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Anwalt-und-Detektiv-legten-die-Video-Falle/381262563

They apparently wanted to sell their material for 5 million , but its unclear how much they got for it.

Now, both people have disappeared ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 23, 2019, 10:48:58 am
Some of what happened today:

* Kickl attacked President VdB as a "power enabler" for the VP and told reporters that he will get back and take a seat in parliament to become FP group speaker. Strache will not go back to parliament, he said. Gudenus has already resigned his seat in parliament. No word if Norbert Hofer or other former FP cabinet members will take seats in the Nationalrat.

* The new cabinet members started their work today and the new Interior Minister Eckart Ratz will already have a prominent role on Sunday, when he will present the results of the EU elections at 11pm.

* The sign "Departure Center" was removed from the Traiskirchen refugee camp today. Kickl had previously ordered the biggest refugee acceptance center in Austria to be re-named to departure center. The last executive decree that Kickl presented before he was ousted was to lower the pay for asylum seekers doing vaoluntary community work to 1.5 per hour (a key FP-policy). Not sure if this will be suspended as well by the new Interior Minister.

* Chancellor Kurz met with key opposition people today (he actually invited all opposition leaders, but only the NEOS one attended his meeting).

* The VP has a chance to delay the no-confidence vote on Monday by 2 days, but decided not to do so. SP and FP announced that they will only decide about their vote shortly before the no-confidence vote on Monday.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 23, 2019, 05:44:34 pm
Some of what happened today:

* Kickl attacked President VdB as a "power enabler" for the VP and told reporters that he will get back and take a seat in parliament to become FP group speaker. Strache will not go back to parliament, he said. Gudenus has already resigned his seat in parliament. No word if Norbert Hofer or other former FP cabinet members will take seats in the Nationalrat.

* The new cabinet members started their work today and the new Interior Minister Eckart Ratz will already have a prominent role on Sunday, when he will present the results of the EU elections at 11pm.

* The sign "Departure Center" was removed from the Traiskirchen refugee camp today. Kickl had previously ordered the biggest refugee acceptance center in Austria to be re-named to departure center. The last executive decree that Kickl presented before he was ousted was to lower the pay for asylum seekers doing vaoluntary community work to 1.5 per hour (a key FP-policy). Not sure if this will be suspended as well by the new Interior Minister.

* Chancellor Kurz met with key opposition people today (he actually invited all opposition leaders, but only the NEOS one attended his meeting).

* The VP has a chance to delay the no-confidence vote on Monday by 2 days, but decided not to do so. SP and FP announced that they will only decide about their vote shortly before the no-confidence vote on Monday.

Already suspended.

I also suggest redoing the Austrian flag and placing "Willkommen" in the middle.

Definitely a new great beginning!

The FP still has some chance left to get 20%+ on Sunday if they push this message in the final days, drowning out the negative messages against them.

The reduction of voluntary pay for asylum seekers is fairly popular and taking it back fits the FPs asylum chaos posters.

I really dont know how they will do in the election: they could get 12% or 24% ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Omega21 on May 23, 2019, 06:42:40 pm
Some of what happened today:

* Kickl attacked President VdB as a "power enabler" for the VP and told reporters that he will get back and take a seat in parliament to become FP group speaker. Strache will not go back to parliament, he said. Gudenus has already resigned his seat in parliament. No word if Norbert Hofer or other former FP cabinet members will take seats in the Nationalrat.

* The new cabinet members started their work today and the new Interior Minister Eckart Ratz will already have a prominent role on Sunday, when he will present the results of the EU elections at 11pm.

* The sign "Departure Center" was removed from the Traiskirchen refugee camp today. Kickl had previously ordered the biggest refugee acceptance center in Austria to be re-named to departure center. The last executive decree that Kickl presented before he was ousted was to lower the pay for asylum seekers doing vaoluntary community work to 1.5 per hour (a key FP-policy). Not sure if this will be suspended as well by the new Interior Minister.

* Chancellor Kurz met with key opposition people today (he actually invited all opposition leaders, but only the NEOS one attended his meeting).

* The VP has a chance to delay the no-confidence vote on Monday by 2 days, but decided not to do so. SP and FP announced that they will only decide about their vote shortly before the no-confidence vote on Monday.

Already suspended.

I also suggest redoing the Austrian flag and placing "Willkommen" in the middle.

Definitely a new great beginning!

The FP still has some chance left to get 20%+ on Sunday if they push this message in the final days, drowning out the negative messages against them.

The reduction of voluntary pay for asylum seekers is fairly popular and taking it back fits the FPs asylum chaos posters.

I really dont know how they will do in the election: they could get 12% or 24% ...

Online they are all-powerful, at the ballot box, I don't know...

Go look at Kurz's facebook posts and read the comments, you'll see what I mean


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 23, 2019, 11:10:29 pm
Demox Research poll on Chancellor Kurz's no-confidence vote (n=1.250):

25% Kurz should be voted out of office
64% Kurz should remain in office

VP-voters: 98% Kurz should remain
FP-voters: 54-32 Kurz should remain
SP-voters: 40-48 Kurz should be voted out of office
NEOS-voters: 82-11 Kurz should remain

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/liveticker-tag-fuenf-nach-ende-der-koalition/400502788


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 24, 2019, 11:23:58 pm
Does a lawyer from Vienna and a detective from Munich have something to do with the Ibiza trap ?

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/oesterreich-heisse-spur-im-ibiza-beben-war-es-dieser-anwalt-62095558.bild.html

The picture is getting clearer:

The lawyer from Vienna (in fact, the lawyer of the lawyer) said yesterday that it was "participation in a project in the interest of civil society", basically confirming that his client played a role in setting up the trap and the videos on Ibiza.

The suspected lawyer and the detective already tried to hand over material to the SP about Strache ahead of the 2017 election, but the SP guy refused the offer.

They probably also offered samples to various media in the German-speaking countries, so that's probably why Bhmermann already knew about the videos months ago ...

Here is the lawyer (on the right), Ramin Mirfakhrai (with Iranian migration background) + the Munich-based detective with Vienna roots Julian Hessenthaler (on the left):

()

Strache has filed a lawsuit against the 2 guys in the meantime.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Ibiza-Videos-Anwalt-gesteht-Mitwirkung/381610952


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 24, 2019, 11:30:49 pm
Ramin Mirfakhrai (with Iranian migration background)

This is hilarious:

Quote
The name Ramin is of Arabic origin and means "Rescuer From Hunger And Pain. Brings Joy."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 24, 2019, 11:33:32 pm
Philippa Strache has abandoned her husband and moved back in with her parents and their newborn son Hendrik:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Philippa-Strache-ist-mit-Kind-ausgezogen/381024623

#Cuck

Meanwhile, Philippa Strache has denied rumours that she has moved out and said that she's "of course" still together with H.C.

https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Philippa-Strache---Ich-bin-nicht-ausgezogen---55789794


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 25, 2019, 01:18:40 pm
SP & FP are more and more likely to get rid of Kurz (and even the whole cabinet) on Monday:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/parlament-neben-kanzler-droht-auch-tuerkisen-ministern-die-abwahl/400505644

VdB should probably compile a list of interim Chancellor and expert ministers over the next 2 days ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: rob in cal on May 25, 2019, 04:17:10 pm
If Kurz is no longer Chancellor after next week, I would think that would hurt the OVP's chances to hit the high 30's in support levels in the September election, without the prestige of a popular incumbent chancellor leading the party.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 26, 2019, 12:12:28 am
If Kurz is no longer Chancellor after next week, I would think that would hurt the OVP's chances to hit the high 30's in support levels in the September election, without the prestige of a popular incumbent chancellor leading the party.

Obviously, a number of factors will come into play by September - but yeah, if Kurz gets removed by parliament tomorrow, it could hurt him because as Chancellor he has a unique position to present himself (international meetings with other leaders etc.)

On the other hand, it could not impact him all too much, because Kurz is still very popular with voters overall.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 26, 2019, 03:19:01 am
Shocking new developments about the Ibiza scandal:

It is possible that the Austrian Intelligence Service BVT (then led by VP Interior Minister Sobotka) itself has commissioned the video material against Strache and Gudenus.

There are interesting links between the detective Julian Hessenthaler and the BMI, who at the time referred to the Austrian BMI as one of his "most precious clients". The reference on his website was deleted after the scandal broke, but apparently the reference was re-established by experts.

Another clue would be that FP-Interior Minister Kickl then raided the BVT after taking office and confiscated a lot of USB-sticks and other material. Maybe he was already aware of compromising material by the BVT against the FP ?

Going further: Maybe it was the VP's plan from the start to blow up the FP at some point, after they passed the most important issues in parliament already and then to weaken the party for their own gain ? Or to get rid of them ? It would also explain why Kurz demanded Kickl to resign immediately, so that Kickl could not investigate further in the BMI/BVT what really happened.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Steckt-Geheimdienst-BVT-hinter-Skandal-Video/381770100

So far, these are only rumours by the tabloid 24 and Kickl himself, but if true it would be a MEGA-scandal.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 26, 2019, 06:48:37 am
Kurz just said while voting in the EU election that he fully expects to be voted out of office tomorrow by SP-FP-NOW.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 26, 2019, 07:24:39 am
Kurz just said while voting in the EU election that he fully expects to be voted out of office tomorrow by SP-FP-NOW.

Who are the most likely candidates to become PM? Will they almost entirely come from the left or could VdB choose someone from the OVP?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 26, 2019, 07:30:51 am
Kurz just said while voting in the EU election that he fully expects to be voted out of office tomorrow by SP-FP-NOW.

Who are the most likely candidates to become PM? Will they almost entirely come from the left or could VdB choose someone from the OVP?

As there has been no such case before, he could choose anyone. But considering the VP won the election last time, you could assume that VdB would first ask a VP person if they want to become interim Chancellor ... former EU commissioner Franz Fischler has been mentioned for example. Or former SP President Heinz Fischer.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 26, 2019, 03:22:14 pm
The party NOW wants to merge with the Greens again ahead of the Sept. federal election and after their disappointing 2% today.

https://orf.at/stories/3124481

The Greens seem to be open about it, but probably only if Peter Pilz is not part of it.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 26, 2019, 04:32:08 pm
The SP party committee has just voted unanimously to impeach Kurz tomorrow in parliament.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 27, 2019, 02:13:21 am
The impeachment process against Kurz + maybe the whole government will begin at 1pm and last the whole afternoon with debates about it.

The SP will introduce a bill to remove Kurz and his cabinet, while NOW will only introduce a bill to remove Kurz.

The FP will not introduce their own bill and will also not abstain, but will vote on the other motions instead.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 27, 2019, 05:46:53 am
FP will vote with the SP to oust Kurz AND the whole cabinet.

Kurz impeachment vote set for ca. 4.30pm


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Umengus on May 27, 2019, 06:31:19 am
FP will vote with the SP to oust Kurz AND the whole cabinet.

Kurz impeachment vote set for ca. 4.30pm

what a mess. Kurz is popular but who knows in september ? the resign of strache was enough IMO


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 27, 2019, 06:59:40 am
Do you think the impachment is going t help or hurt Kurz in the end? On one hand, the opposition comes off as incredibly petty, voting out a caretaker government. On the other hand, Kurz is losing the podium of power.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (FP-Strache out, new election in September)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 27, 2019, 10:05:50 am
Do you think the impachment is going t help or hurt Kurz in the end? On one hand, the opposition comes off as incredibly petty, voting out a caretaker government. On the other hand, Kurz is losing the podium of power.

It will help him. Voters are opposed to his removal by a 70-30 (!) margin.

He can now play the victim card over the next months and form a VP-Greens-NEOS government.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 27, 2019, 10:47:46 am
Kurz and his cabinet were just voted out of office by SP+FP+NOW.

VP+NEOS voted against.



185 no-confidence votes were held in Austria since WW2, all of them failed.

The 186th today did not.

President VdB will meet with all party leaders tonight to discuss things.


Please, for the love of God, stop posting copyrighted images. If you're not sure about states of the image, just don't post it.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: libertpaulian on May 27, 2019, 11:22:42 am
So...what now?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 27, 2019, 11:40:02 am

So...

While the whole cabinet lost the confidence vote, they are still technically in office until President VdB officially removes them from office too. That is to avoid a political vacuum.

But this will only last a few days, because VdB already has a list of his own with potential cabinet members + interim Chancellor, who will be sworn in in a few days.

VdB will also speak to the press at 9pm, after meeting with all party and parliamentary group leaders (he's quite busy today, he also met with Greta Thunberg).

Once this new government is in place, they will set the election date (in September), so parliament can OK the date.

Kurz will then end up like Jon Snow: after being declared dead today by the opposition he will return from the "dead".

Then, in September, Austrian voters will pull out the daggers and "kill" the SP for their actions today (I assume they will get ca. 20-24% in September, while a recovered FP gets that support as well and the VP close to 40%).

Kurz will then form a VP-Greens-NEOS government, showing the middle-finger to both SP and FP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 27, 2019, 03:06:05 pm

President VdB has just spoken to the nation and said:

* He will dismiss the whole cabinet tomorrow at 11:30am.

* He will then immediately re-appoint them for the next few days, so there is no vacuum.

* Finance Minister Lger will become the new Chancellor for these few days, until VdB can present his new interim Chancellor and cabinet. Kurz will take a seat in parliament in the meantime for the coming months.

* VdB wants to find and present his Chancellor + cabinet by Sunday.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: tack50 on May 27, 2019, 06:07:53 pm
Wait, so no alternative Chancellor is needed like in Germany?

Honestly I'm surprised Austria hasn't had a succesful no confidence vote with how easy it is. Destructive no confidence votes I thought led to extreme instability like in the Weimar Republic or the 4th French Republic


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 28, 2019, 11:32:30 am
The chances are high that VdB will pick a woman as the new Chancellor:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/van-der-bellen-sucht-eineeinen-neuen-regierungschefin/400508101

It would be the first female Chancellor, even if it would be just for 6 months.

Also, Kurz announced today that he will not take a seat in parliament as was speculated before, but go on a 4 month long campaign tour through Austria to meet people in every corner.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 28, 2019, 12:25:13 pm
Christine Haberlander (pronounced Huh-buh-lun-duh) would be a great choice for Chancellor in my opinion:

()

https://www.christine-haberlander.at

Young, female, VP and with government experience (shes the current Vice-Governor of Upper Austria).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: TWTown on May 28, 2019, 10:00:31 pm
I feel that the SPO was caught in a dead if you do and a dead if you don't the situation.
Looking at it, they could either leave Kurz to use his political position during the election or take him out but face the wrath of the electorate.
I still think that jumping on the VONC was the better choice for SPO.
Anyway, it's clear that the SPO needs to do some self-reflecting after they inevitably lose to Kurz again.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: TWTown on May 28, 2019, 10:03:10 pm
I feel that the SPO was caught in a dead if you do and a dead if you don't the situation.
Looking at it, they could either leave Kurz to use his political position during the election or take him out but face the wrath of the electorate.
I still think that jumping on the VONC was the better choice for SPO.
Anyway, it's clear that the SPO needs to do some self-reflecting after they inevitably lose to Kurz again.
To be clear though, I do not think Kurz should have been VONC'd as the resignation of Strache was more than enough.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 28, 2019, 11:43:15 pm
I feel that the SPO was caught in a dead if you do and a dead if you don't the situation.
Looking at it, they could either leave Kurz to use his political position during the election or take him out but face the wrath of the electorate.
I still think that jumping on the VONC was the better choice for SPO.
Anyway, it's clear that the SPO needs to do some self-reflecting after they inevitably lose to Kurz again.
To be clear though, I do not think Kurz should have been VONC'd as the resignation of Strache was more than enough.

The vote-of-no-confidence against Kurz maybe helped the SP a bit in their urban areas, but not in the rural areas, where many older SP-voters also like Kurz and are disappointed with the actions of their party. I think voters will punish the SP for this.

My preliminary prediction for September, also based on the EU trends:

38-40% VP
20-25% SP
18-22% FP
  8-12% Greens (combined, with NOW)
    5-7% NEOS
       1% KP
       1% Others

Most likely: 38% VP, 24% SP, 20% FP, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KP, 1% Others.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: TWTown on May 29, 2019, 12:25:53 am
I feel that the SPO was caught in a dead if you do and a dead if you don't the situation.
Looking at it, they could either leave Kurz to use his political position during the election or take him out but face the wrath of the electorate.
I still think that jumping on the VONC was the better choice for SPO.
Anyway, it's clear that the SPO needs to do some self-reflecting after they inevitably lose to Kurz again.
To be clear though, I do not think Kurz should have been VONC'd as the resignation of Strache was more than enough.

The vote-of-no-confidence against Kurz maybe helped the SP a bit in their urban areas, but not in the rural areas, where many older SP-voters also like Kurz and are disappointed with the actions of their party. I think voters will punish the SP for this.

My preliminary prediction for September, also based on the EU trends:

38-40% VP
20-25% SP
18-22% FP
  8-12% Greens (combined, with NOW)
    5-7% NEOS
       1% KP
       1% Others

Most likely: 38% VP, 24% SP, 20% FP, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KP, 1% Others.
Do you have any ideas as to who could succeed Wagner if the SPO performs badly in the September elections?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 29, 2019, 01:34:03 pm
I feel that the SPO was caught in a dead if you do and a dead if you don't the situation.
Looking at it, they could either leave Kurz to use his political position during the election or take him out but face the wrath of the electorate.
I still think that jumping on the VONC was the better choice for SPO.
Anyway, it's clear that the SPO needs to do some self-reflecting after they inevitably lose to Kurz again.
To be clear though, I do not think Kurz should have been VONC'd as the resignation of Strache was more than enough.

The vote-of-no-confidence against Kurz maybe helped the SP a bit in their urban areas, but not in the rural areas, where many older SP-voters also like Kurz and are disappointed with the actions of their party. I think voters will punish the SP for this.

My preliminary prediction for September, also based on the EU trends:

38-40% VP
20-25% SP
18-22% FP
  8-12% Greens (combined, with NOW)
    5-7% NEOS
       1% KP
       1% Others

Most likely: 38% VP, 24% SP, 20% FP, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KP, 1% Others.
Do you have any ideas as to who could succeed Wagner if the SPO performs badly in the September elections?

They WILL perform badly and no, not really. Certainly not Doskozil or Kaiser, as they want to remain Governors of their states. Maybe an unused fresh-face unionist from the FSG out of the states. Its what they would need to find their way back ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 29, 2019, 10:24:41 pm
The election date will be decided by the new, incoming interim government that VdB appoints over the next days + the parties.

They will need a consensus date, because Sept. 1 and 8 are still during the summer holidays and therefore out.

Which means Sept. 15, 22 and 29 are the likely dates.

The VP apparently favours Sept. 15, the SP Sept. 22 and the FP has no particular wish. NEOS is siding with the VP and wants Sept. 15, because this is also what President VdB said ("early September").

Btw: Israel votes on September 17th.

https://derstandard.at/2000104041104/Gerangel-um-Wahltermin-15-oder-22-September-moeglich


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 29, 2019, 10:45:08 pm
So, the 340.000 university students in Austria elected their student parliament over the last days.

This is similar to a regular parliamentary election, just in each university, and is done every 2 years.

Here are the results (changes compared with 2017):

()

AG = VP
GRAS = Greens
VSSt = SP
JUNOS = NEOS
FL = Independents (left-wing)
KSV-LiLi = KP 1.0
KSV-KJ = KP 2.0
RFS = FP
No Ma'am = The Party (satire)

Turnout: 26% (+2) ... damn lazy students.

The current government is VSSt, GRAS & FL with 29/55 seats (frontrunners below):

()

They would have 31/55 seats now and could continue their government to represent students.

https://orf.at/stories/3124896


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2019, 12:33:39 am
Looks like 4 names are on President VdB's shortlist for Chancellor:

* Elisabeth Kornfeind (current Austrian ambassador in Belgium)
* Michael Linhart (current Austrian ambassador in France)
* Andreas Riecken (a high-ranking official in the Foreign Ministry)
* Gerhart Holzinger (former Constitutional Court Chief Justice)

VdB wants someone who has close EU ties and experience - for the coming EU negotiations.

It's possible that VdB could present his interim cabinet tomorrow already (today is a public holiday).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2019, 12:58:58 am
Former FP Interior Minister Herbert Kickl (literally, and in full campaign-mode already):

"The VP is behind the Ibiza-video that brought down Strache and the VP-FP government !"

https://orf.at/stories/3125060

This comes as the interim Interior Minister Eckart Ratz is now cancelling several directives from Kickl, such as the lower voluntary pay for asylum seekers doing community work to just 1.5/hour, or by re-naming asylum centers in Austria from "departure centers" to "acceptance centers" again. Ratz is also cancelling Kickl's police press directive, which mandated police to publish the nationality of every violent offender in their press release section.

Kickl: "They are going back to the same old, devastating pro-immigration policy now !"


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: rob in cal on May 30, 2019, 01:30:50 am
  Gotta love the disconnect between student support for the RFS and support for the FPO in Austria as a whole. Surprising that the AG is leading faction, but I guess thats just because there are so many left leaning groups. But perhaps among the strong majority of non-voting students there is a closer match to the political leanings of the rest of Austria.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2019, 06:01:08 am
 Gotta love the disconnect between student support for the RFS and support for the FPO in Austria as a whole. Surprising that the AG is leading faction, but I guess thats just because there are so many left leaning groups. But perhaps among the strong majority of non-voting students there is a closer match to the political leanings of the rest of Austria.

Not really: All studies show that students are much more leftist than the overall population, voting a lot more Green and Liberal and far less for the FP. Even among the general population, the FP-share drops to 3-5% among those with a university degree. The FP does a lot better with those who are not attending university after 12 years of school, especially among those who enter an apprenticeship and who start to work directly after school. Since most older Austrians chose an apprenticeship when they were younger, instead of a university education, that explains the high FP-share in elections. Even today, the mostly small-business Austrian economy requires much more technicians and apprenticeship-based craftspersons than university-trained people and even a lot of parents these days want their children to enter an apprenticeship or vocational school, because in their opinion it better fits the current labour market and their chances to get a job. Not many parents want their kids to study philosophy etc. - where unemployment is high after a completed university degree. As a technician with a completed apprenticeship, you will immediately get a job these days.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2019, 06:28:32 am
President Alexander Van der Bellen has decided on a new Chancellor for the next 4-6 months.

https://orf.at/stories/3125115

All parties have accepted his choice and VdB will announce the name today at 3pm.

My guess would be Michael Linhart, a top diplomat or Gerhart Holzinger, the former Supreme Court Justice. On the other hand I hope VdB has the balls to present a female Chancellor.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: DavidB. on May 30, 2019, 06:38:38 am
Most likely: 38% VP, 24% SP, 20% FP, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KP, 1% Others.
Why would the VP do better than in the EP election?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2019, 06:41:45 am
Most likely: 38% VP, 24% SP, 20% FP, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KP, 1% Others.
Why would the VP do better than in the EP election?

A) Kurz is on the ballot.

B) Greens and NEOS will not be as strong as in the EP election, which means +4% or so for Kurz.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: DavidB. on May 30, 2019, 06:44:10 am
B) Greens and NEOS will not be as strong as in the EP election, which means +4% or so for Kurz.
I don't see how it means that. Wouldn't it benefit SP and FP just as much as VP (FP possibly more given that euroskeptical voters tend to turn out worse in EP elections)?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2019, 07:00:35 am
B) Greens and NEOS will not be as strong as in the EP election, which means +4% or so for Kurz.
I don't see how it means that. Wouldn't it benefit SP and FP just as much as VP (FP possibly more given that euroskeptical voters tend to turn out worse in EP elections)?

Mostly going by polls. The latest poll for the federal election already has the VP at 38% and the Greens and NEOS not as strong.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2019, 07:01:24 am
President Alexander Van der Bellen has decided on a new Chancellor for the next 4-6 months.

https://orf.at/stories/3125115

All parties have accepted his choice and VdB will announce the name today at 3pm.

My guess would be Michael Linhart, a top diplomat or Gerhart Holzinger, the former Supreme Court Justice. On the other hand I hope VdB has the balls to present a female Chancellor.

The "Presse" reports that the current Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court, Brigitte Bierlein, will become Chancellor.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5636831/Praesidentin-des-Verfassungsgerichtshof-Brigitte-Bierlein-wird (https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5636831/Praesidentin-des-Verfassungsgerichtshof-Brigitte-Bierlein-wird)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Omega21 on May 30, 2019, 08:15:12 am
Former FP Interior Minister Herbert Kickl (literally, and in full campaign-mode already):

"The VP is behind the Ibiza-video that brought down Strache and the VP-FP government !"

https://orf.at/stories/3125060

This comes as the interim Interior Minister Eckart Ratz is now cancelling several directives from Kickl, such as the lower voluntary pay for asylum seekers doing community work to just 1.5/hour, or by re-naming asylum centers in Austria from "departure centers" to "acceptance centers" again. Ratz is also cancelling Kickl's police press directive, which mandated police to publish the nationality of every violent offender in their press release section.

Kickl: "They are going back to the same old, devastating pro-immigration policy now !"

More censorship and less information for all, hurayy!


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2019, 10:13:07 am
Brigitte Bierlein (beer-line) officially appointed the 1st female Chancellor of Austria by President Van der Bellen.

She and the new technocrat cabinet will be sworn in on Monday.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2019, 10:40:14 am
Clemens Jabloner (another judge, law professor and good friend of Bierlein) will become Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Justice, while Alexander Schallenberg - a top official in the Foreign Ministry - will become Foreign Minister.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on May 30, 2019, 07:04:16 pm
Van der Bellen apparently wanted to be the one who appoints the first woman Chancellor, while at the some time avoiding accusations of being not impartial by ultimately going for someome who's known for being somewhat  close to the VP/FP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2019, 10:45:49 pm
Van der Bellen apparently wanted to be the one who appoints the first woman Chancellor, while at the some time avoiding accusations of being not impartial by ultimately going for someome who's known for being somewhat  close to the VP/FP.

Correct.

Bierlein comes from a conservative background, but as Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court has also had quite moderate positions on gay marriage, asylum, welfare payments etc.

I think shes OK for the next couple months, even though I was hoping for a younger female Chancellor, such as Christine Haberlander.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 30, 2019, 10:50:47 pm
September 29 looks like the date for the early election.

This is what both SP and FP want (the later, the better for them) and they have a majority in parliament.

The VP (they want to vote as early as possible, on September 1/8/15) is furious, saying that SP & FP are already preparing a secret coalition.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/rot-blaue-mehrheit-fuer-29-september-als-wahltermin/400510150


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: rob in cal on May 31, 2019, 01:12:41 am
  An SPO FPO coalition.  That  would be intresting to see.  In this fantasy scenario of mine Hofer helps clean up the FPO image and brand, and the SPO comes close to the FPO in the asylum immigration side of things, and the FPO comes closer to the SPO on taxation, government spending etc. Burgenland goes national.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2019, 01:47:59 am
  An SPO FPO coalition.  That  would be intresting to see.  In this fantasy scenario of mine Hofer helps clean up the FPO image and brand, and the SPO comes close to the FPO in the asylum immigration side of things, and the FPO comes closer to the SPO on taxation, government spending etc. Burgenland goes national.

Not going to happen.

A) the SP doesn't want it.

B) they will not have a majority this time.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2019, 08:55:36 am
Most Austrians prefer a threesome after the election:

ATV/Unique Research poll about coalition preferences

25% VP-Greens-NEOS
21% VP-FP
19% SP-Greens-NEOS
  7% VP-SP
  5% SP-FP

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190531_OTS0112/atv-frage-der-woche-ein-viertel-der-oesterreicherinnen-sieht-dreier-koalition-oevp-gruene-neos-in-der-kommenden-regierung


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2019, 12:11:53 pm
Finland-born Iris Eliisa Rauskala will become the new Minister for Education:

https://derstandard.at/2000104156446/Praesidialsektionschefin-Iris-Rauskala-soll-Bildungsministerin-werden


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Lechasseur on May 31, 2019, 12:39:28 pm
Which party is Iris Rauskala of?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Lechasseur on May 31, 2019, 12:40:40 pm

Same question for the new chancellor. And what were their roles previously?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2019, 12:56:00 pm

Same question for the new chancellor. And what were their roles previously?

De-facto none.

But both are close to the VP, so is the new Foreign Minister Schallenberg.

Jabloner is closer to the SP.

For their previous roles, see above. Rauskala is a top official in the Education Ministry.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2019, 02:30:47 pm
The technocrat cabinet of Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein will be smaller than the original VP-FP government, probably just 12 members instead of 16.

4 are already named, 8 or so to go.

The posts of Strache and Blmel and the 2 state secretaries will not be re-staffed, but merged with other ministries for the next months.

The coming 4 months also offer a rare window of Swiss-style multipartisanship, where such things as tougher campaign finance laws and oversight could be passed.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/bierleins-beamtenregierung-soll-parteispenden-neu-regeln/400511215


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2019, 02:42:24 pm
New Demox Research poll published in the Presse (n=1.000, conducted in the past few days):

37-38% VP
22-23% SP
18-19% FP
10-11% NEOS
    8-9% Greens
    1-3% Others

2017 result: 31.5% VP, 27% SP, 26% FP, 5% NEOS, 4% Greens, 6.5% Others

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637522/Warten-auf-das-Kabinett-Bierlein


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: DL on May 31, 2019, 04:15:27 pm
New Demox Research poll published in the Presse (n=1.000, conducted in the past few days):

37-38% VP
22-23% SP
18-19% FP
10-11% NEOS
    8-9% Greens
    1-3% Others

2017 result: 31.5% VP, 27% SP, 26% FP, 5% NEOS, 4% Greens, 6.5% Others

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637522/Warten-auf-das-Kabinett-Bierlein

If those were the election results we could see an OVP/NEOS coalition and the FPO could be discarded. It would be like an Austrian version of a standard issue CDU/FDP coalition. Someone enlighten me as to whether ist fair to describe NEOS as basically an Austrian version of the FDP


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: tack50 on May 31, 2019, 04:41:14 pm
New Demox Research poll published in the Presse (n=1.000, conducted in the past few days):

37-38% VP
22-23% SP
18-19% FP
10-11% NEOS
    8-9% Greens
    1-3% Others

2017 result: 31.5% VP, 27% SP, 26% FP, 5% NEOS, 4% Greens, 6.5% Others

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637522/Warten-auf-das-Kabinett-Bierlein

If those were the election results we could see an OVP/NEOS coalition and the FPO could be discarded. It would be like an Austrian version of a standard issue CDU/FDP coalition. Someone enlighten me as to whether ist fair to describe NEOS as basically an Austrian version of the FDP

I believe NEOS is more openly pro-EU (not that FDP is anti-EU in the slightest, but iirc NEOS openly wants the "united states of Europe") and more left wing overall? (both economically and socially)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Lechasseur on May 31, 2019, 05:19:03 pm
New Demox Research poll published in the Presse (n=1.000, conducted in the past few days):

37-38% VP
22-23% SP
18-19% FP
10-11% NEOS
    8-9% Greens
    1-3% Others

2017 result: 31.5% VP, 27% SP, 26% FP, 5% NEOS, 4% Greens, 6.5% Others

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637522/Warten-auf-das-Kabinett-Bierlein

If those were the election results we could see an OVP/NEOS coalition and the FPO could be discarded. It would be like an Austrian version of a standard issue CDU/FDP coalition. Someone enlighten me as to whether ist fair to describe NEOS as basically an Austrian version of the FDP

I believe NEOS is more openly pro-EU (not that FDP is anti-EU in the slightest, but iirc NEOS openly wants the "united states of Europe") and more left wing overall? (both economically and socially)

Yeah that's the impression I have too. FDP seem to be a more classical liberal party like Venstre, VVD or MR while NEOS seem to be a more social-liberal party la D66.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2019, 10:36:41 pm
New Demox Research poll published in the Presse (n=1.000, conducted in the past few days):

37-38% VP
22-23% SP
18-19% FP
10-11% NEOS
    8-9% Greens
    1-3% Others

2017 result: 31.5% VP, 27% SP, 26% FP, 5% NEOS, 4% Greens, 6.5% Others

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637522/Warten-auf-das-Kabinett-Bierlein

If those were the election results we could see an OVP/NEOS coalition and the FPO could be discarded. It would be like an Austrian version of a standard issue CDU/FDP coalition. Someone enlighten me as to whether ist fair to describe NEOS as basically an Austrian version of the FDP

I dont think these are the eventual election results, because I think that the roles of NEOS and Greens will be reversed in the end.

The Greens are benefitting from the current climate change movement of Greta Thunberg (she was in Vienna yesterday for her strike), while there are some who are flirting with NEOS in the polls right now, but who will end up voting VP in the voting booth.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2019, 10:58:11 pm
A new Research Affairs poll for 24 confirms the DEMOX poll above, with the FP and SP crashing and burning:

()

2/3 people think the sacking of Kurz by SP-FP was wrong and more than 70% say it hurt our reputation abroad.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wen-waehlen-Sie-Umfrage-Rekord-fuer-Kurz/382648855


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2019, 11:21:38 pm
Kurz = Jesus



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 31, 2019, 11:46:49 pm
Some say Jesus, others say ...

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 01, 2019, 12:38:13 am
Elisabeth Udolf to become new Minister for the Economy:

So far, there's gender parity in the new cabinet: 3 women and 3 men.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 01, 2019, 05:54:14 am
Additional names have been more or less confirmed today:

* Social Minister: Brigitte Zarfl (SP-affiliated)
* Women, Families & Youth Minister: Ines Stilling (SP-affiliated)
* Finance Minister: Eduard Mller (VP-affiliated)
* Transport & Infrastructure Minister: Hartwig Hufnagl (FP-affiliated)

Eckart Ratz (VP-affiliated and appointed by Kurz himself) is likely to remain as Interior Minister.

That means only a Defense- and Agriculture Minister are left to choose.

https://derstandard.at/2000104181458/Drei-neue-Namen-fuer-Bierleins-Kabinett-kolportiert

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637704/Neue-Namen-der-BierleinRegierung


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on June 01, 2019, 06:02:21 am
Note to copyright-enforcer Kalwejt: This is a free license, I checked on Flickr.

Good man.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on June 01, 2019, 06:23:49 am
Are the Austrian Greens as far to the left as the German Greens?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 01, 2019, 06:30:22 am
Are the Austrian Greens as far to the left as the German Greens?

There is no big difference I would say.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: crals on June 01, 2019, 06:33:59 am
If there is no OVP-NEOS majority what is the most likely coalition? Any chance NOW run together with the Greens?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 01, 2019, 06:41:45 am
If there is no OVP-NEOS majority what is the most likely coalition? Any chance NOW run together with the Greens?

If VP-NEOS or VP-Greens is not possible (and this will likely be the case), VP-Greens-NEOS will happen.

The 3 parties are already signalling their intention for a common government, without openly saying so.

And yeah, the Greens might integrate some of NOW's members on their election list, without actually merging ahead of the election. Peter Pilz himself will certainly not be part of the Green list. Too deep are the personal frictions between him and his former party and the Greens certainly do not want a disturbing force like him ahead of the election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 01, 2019, 07:59:43 am
New "Profil" magazine poll:

"Do you want Strache to make a comeback in politics after some time ?"

68% No
22% Yes

FP-voters:

67% Yes
28% No

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-polit-comeback-strache-ibiza-10809714


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 01, 2019, 09:37:31 am
Another new poll today (Unique Research for the "Krone"), same story:

VP gaining, Greens gaining, NEOS gaining. SP losing a lot, FP losing a lot. NOW losing a lot.




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on June 01, 2019, 10:18:36 am
If there is no OVP-NEOS majority what is the most likely coalition? Any chance NOW run together with the Greens?

If VP-NEOS or VP-Greens is not possible (and this will likely be the case), VP-Greens-NEOS will happen.

The 3 parties are already signalling their intention for a common government, without openly saying so.

And yeah, the Greens might integrate some of NOW's members on their election list, without actually merging ahead of the election. Peter Pilz himself will certainly not be part of the Green list. Too deep are the personal frictions between him and his former party and the Greens certainly do not want a disturbing force like him ahead of the election.

What would a government like that even look like, policy-wise? OVP and Greens don't really share anything meaningful in common, do they? And even NEOS would tightly restrict Kurz's move of the OVP to the right.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 01, 2019, 12:31:10 pm
If there is no OVP-NEOS majority what is the most likely coalition? Any chance NOW run together with the Greens?

If VP-NEOS or VP-Greens is not possible (and this will likely be the case), VP-Greens-NEOS will happen.

The 3 parties are already signalling their intention for a common government, without openly saying so.

And yeah, the Greens might integrate some of NOW's members on their election list, without actually merging ahead of the election. Peter Pilz himself will certainly not be part of the Green list. Too deep are the personal frictions between him and his former party and the Greens certainly do not want a disturbing force like him ahead of the election.

What would a government like that even look like, policy-wise? OVP and Greens don't really share anything meaningful in common, do they? And even NEOS would tightly restrict Kurz's move of the OVP to the right.

We will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FP over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating VP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as VP-FP.

In other words: Kurz will move so much to the center before and after the election to court the NEOS and Greens that they will most likely say yes to such a coalition. Kurz's conservative policies were only possible with a willing FP. Under the new government, the focus will shift away from immigration and more to the economy, education, transparency and of course ecological issues such as climate protection.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 01, 2019, 12:32:25 pm
Another new poll (OGM, for the "Kurier" and "Kleine Zeitung"):

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 02, 2019, 03:51:27 am
With all 12 expected new interim cabinet members now named by the media (not officially confirmed yet), it has quite an VP-lean - followed by the SP and FP.

Also, 6 women and 6 men.

Small change: Ratz will not remain (https://www.krone.at/1933798) as Interior Minister after all.

According to the "Krone", the cabinet will be sworn into office tomorrow at 11am by VdB.

VP-affiliated or appointed to their previous posts under VP-leadership:

* Chancellor: Brigitte Bierlein
* Foreign & EU Minister: Alexander Schallenberg
* Interior Minister: Wolfgang Peschorn
* Finance Minister: Eduard Mller
* Education Minister: Iris Rauskala
* Economy Minister: Elisabeth Udolf-Strobl
* Agriculture & Environment Minister: Maria Patek

SP-affiliated or appointed to their previous posts under SP-leadership:

* Vice-Chancellor & Minister for Justice: Clemens Jabloner
* Social Minister: Brigitte Zarfl
* Defense Minister: Thomas Starlinger
* Women, Families & Youth Minister: Ines Stilling

FP-affiliated or appointed to their previous posts under FP-leadership:

* Transport & Infrastructure Minister: Andreas Reichhardt


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 02, 2019, 07:41:30 am
The FP now has a problem with the likely new Interior Minister Andreas Pilsl, calling him an VP-man from the old black power circles.

https://orf.at/stories/3125393

Thats the 2nd guy they are complaining about, after the current Kurz-appointed minister Eckart Ratz has rolled back several of former FP-minister Kickls policies ...

Looks like the swearing-in tomorrow could be postponed ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Russian Bear on June 02, 2019, 09:01:21 am
Elisabeth Udolf to become new Minister for the Economy:

So far, there's gender parity in the new cabinet: 3 women and 3 men.

Note to copyright-enforcer Kalwejt: This is a free license, I checked on Flickr.

And the pictures above are my work.


Not so fast...

https://www.flickr.com/photos/arselectronica/36350545743
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/

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Follow the rules, and show some respect to other's hard work!


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on June 02, 2019, 09:13:09 am
Thank you for catching this, Russian Bear.

Tender, please add the proper credit and be more careful next time.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 02, 2019, 09:30:10 am
The FP now has a problem with the likely new Interior Minister Andreas Pilsl, calling him an VP-man from the old black power circles.

https://orf.at/stories/3125393

Thats the 2nd guy they are complaining about, after the current Kurz-appointed minister Eckart Ratz has rolled back several of former FP-minister Kickls policies ...

Looks like the swearing-in tomorrow could be postponed ...

So, Pilsl will not become Interior Minister ... :P

Wolfgang Peschorn will.

Cabinet now complete, according to the APA.

https://orf.at/stories/3125412

https://derstandard.at/2000104218071/Bierlein-Neue-Regierung-ist-komplett-Wolfgang-Peschorn-Innenminister


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on June 02, 2019, 09:59:17 am
Since you've failed to modify the post when asked, I've moderated it.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 02, 2019, 04:54:39 pm
Here is the complete new technocratic interim government of Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein, which President Alexander Van der Bellen will swear in tomorrow at 11am.

This is the first time in ca. 250 years that Austria will get a female leader (after Empress Maria Theresia).

For the first time, a cabinet will have gender parity (the previous record was 40% women in the government of Chancellor Gusenbauer).


Note: Tender, what the hell did you expect will happen when you post an image with a clear (C) note?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 02, 2019, 10:51:23 pm
Note: Tender, what the hell did you expect will happen when you post an image with a clear (C) note?

It's an infographic from the APA. Everyone posts these kinds of graphics. Stop acting like copyright-Nazis, please.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on June 03, 2019, 05:47:51 am
Note: Tender, what the hell did you expect will happen when you post an image with a clear (C) note?

It's an infographic from the APA. Everyone posts these kinds of graphics. Stop acting like copyright-Nazis, please.

Doesn't matter what "everyone does", since Dave's been very clear on the issue. You're not the only one to whom it's being applied.

And as a former mod you should know that modyfing a moderated post back to its previous state is a giant no-no. 


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Omega21 on June 03, 2019, 07:20:03 am
Note: Tender, what the hell did you expect will happen when you post an image with a clear (C) note?

It's an infographic from the APA. Everyone posts these kinds of graphics. Stop acting like copyright-Nazis, please.

Doesn't matter what "everyone does", since Dave's been very clear on the issue. You're not the only one to whom it's being applied.

And as a former mod you should know that modyfing a moderated post back to its previous state is a giant no-no. 

()

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Werbliche Nutzung nur nach Freigabe!

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Source/Credit:

https://www.picturedesk.com/bild-disp/apa/de/home.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on June 03, 2019, 08:09:23 am
I'd like to take this opportunity to reiterate what I've been saying for some time.

Sure, it may not seem like such a big deal, but Dave had to deal with some claims, that could've very well ended up in litigation (I myself was surprised it came to this), so his desire to be as careful with this thing as possible is perfectly logical. I can't rule out the situation in which Dave would rather shut down this forum than allow legally problematic actions by some posters to potentially put the work of his life, the Atlas, in any jeopardy.

I really hate to deal with this mess, having to check numerous pictures, react to numerous reports and so on, but I'd rather be a hardass about this than let Dave down.

So, please, do what Omega21 just did, include the proper attribution. And if you can't do this, don't include images.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 03, 2019, 10:50:05 am
Yeah, yeah ... will do that in the future (even if highly annoying).

Anyway, the Cabinet Brigitte Bierlein I was sworn in today and here are pictures of it:

Link (APA) (https://www.picturedesk.com/bild-disp/search/specialsLB.action?ts=1559576643013&data=eyJiciI6WyIyNTotMTpIb21lOlwvYXBhXC9kZVwvaG9tZS5odG1sIiwiMjA6LTE6TDE5NjgxMDYiXSwicmJ6aWQiOiJMMTk2ODEwNiIsInJzIjoxLCJyYnpwYXRoIjoiXC9Qb3J0YWxcL0hvbWUiLCJucnAiOjUwLCJwbiI6MX0&searchID=270f2fd9-a938-41f6-b5f0-ba9630f03743)

Link (Office of the President) (https://www.bundespraesident.at/fotos/detail/flickr/72157708903669603/)

Chancellor Bierlein delivering her declaration of government:

()

Source: APA/Fohringer


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 03, 2019, 11:01:58 am
Chancellor Bierlein is in office for just a few hours now, but the sexism has already started:

If you type in her name in Google, what does appear ?

* Bierlein face
* Bierlein botox
* Bierlein lifting
* Bierlein surgery
* Bierlein wig

She's not the youngest anymore for sure, but that's disgusting ... ::)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 03, 2019, 11:21:51 am
Just watched the swearing-in ceremony and her first speech of government and here are some important things:

* Van der Bellen said: "No doubt about it, I'm very happy that today, the first female Chancellor takes office and that half of the cabinet are women. In the future, nobody can say anymore IT IS NOT POSSIBLE, because it is possible."

* Bierlein also mentioned the young women of Austria to get active and not hide their ideas they have in the economy etc. and take part in politics and she said she wants a tolerant, open Austria in the EU and worldwide. She also said "This government will serve you, the people, as best as possible."

* The first cabinet council meeting will be on Wednesday and it will likely be about the election date and mediation between what date the different parties want.

* The next meeting of parliament will be on June 12, so that the new cabinet can introduce themselves to MPs by delivering speeches. It is likely that the election date can be passed then as well.

https://orf.at/stories/3125543


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 04, 2019, 10:49:41 am
Today, a meeting of major party officials took place to discuss the election date (LOL, not even on this topic they can agree).

It's becoming clearer and clearer that the federal election will take place on September 29. This is the date that SP+FP want and they have a majority in parliament. The VP wants to vote as early as September 1, but this is still holiday season.

I think that SP+FP will pass this date next week in parliament.

Which means that the regular 5-year Vorarlberg state election will be held a week earlier, on September 22, because Governor Markus Wallner doesn't want to vote together with the federal election.

https://derstandard.at/2000104333839/SPOe-und-FPOe-beharren-laut-OeVP-auf-dem-29-September


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 04, 2019, 11:31:59 am
What just happened ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 04, 2019, 01:22:03 pm

?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 04, 2019, 03:35:52 pm

I was referring to what did Strache & Kurz do to get tossed from office ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 04, 2019, 10:48:22 pm

Well ... there are now 12 pages about it.

Please start reading here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=310336.msg6800424#msg6800424).

Or here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibiza_affair).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 05, 2019, 03:04:29 pm
The latest gimmick is that the federal election will likely be held on September 29 and the regular Vorarlberg state election on October 13, giving them more time for their own campaign instead of being drowned out by the federal election campaign.

On the other hand, both elections on the same date would have been better because it would increase turnout.

Also, the first cabinet council meeting of the interim Bierlein government took place today, but nothing big was discussed, just the latest labour market data and that Sri Lanka was declared a non-safe country for asylum seekers in Austria up for deportation, as Sri Lanka re-introduced the death penalty.

The bigger discussion right now is about police brutality, after videos emerged where some police officers beat down climate protesters recently.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 05, 2019, 03:40:00 pm
FP leader Norbert Hofer says he will campaign heavily on measures to combat climate change over the next months and turn the FP green:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/norbert-hofer-will-die-blauen-gruen-machen/400515406


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: urutzizu on June 05, 2019, 04:00:44 pm
FP leader Norbert Hofer says he will campaign heavily on measures to combat climate change over the next months and turn the FP green:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/norbert-hofer-will-die-blauen-gruen-machen/400515406

The next far-right Leader to recognise that preserving the nation and preserving its environment go hand in hand. Marine Le Pen was very much the first, when she campaigned on a quite environmentalist platform in the EU elections, and won of course.

Quote
We consider environmentalism the natural child of patriotism, because it's the natural child of rootedness
she said.

Meanwhile the AFD still refuse to recognise man-made climate change, very much to the consternation of their young members (https://www.rbb24.de/politik/wahl/Europawahl/beitraege/afd-kurswechsel-klimapolitik-junge-alternative-berlin.html), and to young voters (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=305773.msg6820926#msg6820926) who might agree with them on immigration.

Norbert Hofer has made a very far-sighted decision.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: DavidB. on June 05, 2019, 04:14:04 pm
The next far-right Leader to recognise that preserving the nation and preserving its environment go hand in hand. Marine Le Pen was very much the first, when she campaigned on a quite environmentalist platform in the EU elections, and won of course.

Quote
We consider environmentalism the natural child of patriotism, because it's the natural child of rootedness
she said.
Nationalists can (and should) embrace environmentalism without also embracing the political theology of anthropogenic climate change and sacrificing our economies at its altar.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 05, 2019, 10:55:31 pm
Marine Le Pen was probably not the first, because Hofer already said in 2016 during the Presidential election that he, unlike Strache, does believe in man-made climate change and he also highlighted how he has solar panels on the roof of his home and is a small "organic farmer" at home, growing his own vegetables etc.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 05, 2019, 11:06:16 pm
New 24 poll (May 31-June 4):

38% VP (+6.5)
23% SP (-4.0)
17% FP (-9.0)
  9% Greens (+5.2)
  9% NEOS (+3.7)
  1% NOW (-3.4)
  3% Others (+1.0)

Chancellor:

46% Sebastian Kurz (VP)
19% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SP)
19% Norbert Hofer (FP)

Should Kurz become Chancellor again after the election ?

59% Yes
41% No

Which coalition do you prefer after the election ?

26% VP-Greens-NEOS
21% VP-FP
19% SP-Greens-NEOS
  8% VP-SP
  6% SP-FP

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Beben-59-wollen-Kurz-als-Kanzler/383337152


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: rob in cal on June 06, 2019, 01:25:26 am
  Hopefully FPO opponents don't try to tie Hofer's intrest in organic farming into latent Nazism, what with the Nazi intrest in organic farming and vegetarianism https://humanities.wustl.edu/features/Corinna-Treitel-Eating-Nature
 I like Hofer compared to other FPO leaders and believe had he been in charge of the FPO since the start of the OVP FPO coalition it would still be going strong.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: bigic on June 06, 2019, 04:24:49 am
Is there enough time for Strache to found a new party (or rename an existing one) and contest the election? I'm thinking of a scenario where he gets kicked out of FPO and then he founds a new party.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Lechasseur on June 06, 2019, 10:30:59 am
Is there enough time for Strache to found a new party (or rename an existing one) and contest the election? I'm thinking of a scenario where he gets kicked out of FPO and then he founds a new party.

Frankly I don't see why he would. His political career is over anyway, and I don't think he has any reason to try to get revenge on the FPO.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 06, 2019, 10:44:48 am
Is there enough time for Strache to found a new party (or rename an existing one) and contest the election? I'm thinking of a scenario where he gets kicked out of FPO and then he founds a new party.

Frankly I don't see why he would. His political career is over anyway, and I don't think he has any reason to try to get revenge on the FPO.

Correct.

And besides, Strache and the FP are still on family-oriented terms. Strache just yesterday or so said that the FP is a "big family" and that he fully supports the current leadership under Hofer, Vilimsky, Haimbuchner and Kickl.

Obviously, some within the party want him to get out for good, but others still remember that the party would not be where it is right now without Strache's leadership over the years and as a result has a solid base of at least 15-20% support. Remember that Strache started with 3% in 2005 and got the party back to 26% and even now, despite the scandal, it still polls around 18-20% ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 06, 2019, 10:51:07 am
New Unique Research poll for "Profil" magazine (May 31-June 5):

37% VP (+5.5)
21% FP (-5.0)
20% SP (-7.0)
10% Greens (+6.2)
10% NEOS (+4.7)
  1% NOW (-3.4)
  1% Others (-1.0)

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-kurz-nationalratswahlen-10813406


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 06, 2019, 11:42:53 am
Besides Sebastian Kurz (who is still quite popular), President Alexander Van der Bellen has seen a huge jump in his approval rating for handling the government crisis well and the new interim Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein also starts with high approval ratings according to the new "Profil" poll:

Alexander Van der Bellen: 79% approve, (was at ca. 50-40 before the crisis)

(VP-voters: 89%, FP: 58%, SP: 91%)

Brigitte Bierlein: 55-10 approve (31% don't really know her yet)

(VP-voters: 60%, FP: 36%, SP: 72%)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on June 06, 2019, 12:28:58 pm
Alexander Van der Bellen: 79% approve, (was at ca. 50-40 before the crisis)

Why is there such a visible difference?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 06, 2019, 10:53:40 pm
Alexander Van der Bellen: 79% approve, (was at ca. 50-40 before the crisis)

Why is there such a visible difference?

Everyone acknowledges that VdB did a good job during the government crisis, even FP voters, who were heavily critical of him since 2016.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 06, 2019, 11:05:46 pm
The VP has announced they will vote with the SP and others in parliament during the next months to kill the controversial pro-smoking law that they passed together with the FP:

https://orf.at/stories/3125874

The VP was never really comfortable with that law, but passed it because of compromises with the FP in their coalition contract.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 07, 2019, 12:44:33 pm
The new Interior Minister has clarified today that young people who had their asylum requests rejected, but who are in a current apprenticeship with a company, can still be deported.

The Greens, NEOS, SP and parts of the VP wanted to end this practice, because they think that many companies are in need of young asylum seekers without a criminal background.

But Interior Minister Peschorn said that "the law of the country is pretty clear: an apprenticeship or work does not protect someone from deportation if the asylum status is revoked and because the country of origin is safe again."

In other words: He has no other choice than to follow the law, unless the parties change it.

https://derstandard.at/2000104512177/Peschorn-will-auch-kuenftig-Lehrlinge-abschieben


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 08, 2019, 03:08:11 am
New Market poll for the "Standard" newspaper (June 5-6):

38% VP (+6.5)
22% SP (-5.0)
19% FP (-7.0)
10% Greens (+6.2)
  9% NEOS (+3.7)
  1% NOW (-3.4)
  1% Others (-1.0)

https://derstandard.at/2000104553538/Umfrage-Nur-Kurz-schlaegt-Bierlein-in-der-Kanzlerfrage


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 08, 2019, 09:30:29 am
Turns out that there have been meetings between VP-FP in the last days and they have agreed to pass their already-worked-out tax reform/tax cut plans in parliament during the next few months + pension increases + plastic bag ban that they already agreed upon before their coalition broke apart.

Good to see that there is still some consensus left after the difficult last weeks. Previously, it was not clear what will happen to all the finalized proposals of VP-FP after their coalition ended.

https://derstandard.at/2000104554681/OeVP-und-FPOe-wollen-hoehere-Mindestpensionen-noch-gemeinsam-beschliessen

https://derstandard.at/2000104584355/Plastiksackerl-Verbot-kommt-nun-doch


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: rob in cal on June 08, 2019, 11:35:15 am
If they could also pass direct democracy legislation that would be great, but I'm guessing neither party is really that supportive of that.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 09, 2019, 12:27:36 am
If they could also pass direct democracy legislation that would be great, but I'm guessing neither party is really that supportive of that.

Definitely not.

It takes a while to prepare legislation like this and even under their regular coalition it was only planned for 2022 ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Cranberry on June 09, 2019, 01:30:25 am
If they could also pass direct democracy legislation that would be great, but I'm guessing neither party is really that supportive of that.

Definitely not.

It takes a while to prepare legislation like this and even under their regular coalition it was only planned for 2022 ...

They never planned on enacting anything like that anyway - otherwise they wouldn't have set goals significantly higher than either party spoke of during the campaign and completely ignored "direct democracy" last year when 15% of the voting population signed an anti-smoke petition. It's not an issue they really care about other than scoring some cheap political points with it.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 09, 2019, 01:05:49 pm
Former FP Interior Minister Herbert Kickl's cousin, Daniela Kickl, has decided to run for the Greens in the coming election.

Daniela Kickl has long been heavily critical against Herbert and was present at many demonstrations against him.

She will run on the Greens Vienna list and would probably need to be ranked in the top-5 there to make it into the Austrian parliament, assuming the Greens win some 20 seats in September.

https://derstandard.at/2000104608157/Herbert-Kickls-Cousine-Daniela-will-fuer-die-Gruenen-antreten


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 10, 2019, 03:31:17 am
This week will clarify things about the coming election ...

Today is a public holiday here, but already tomorrow the relevant multipartisan committee in parliament will debate the election date and with the votes of SP+FP, September 29 will almost definitely be announced as election date.

On Wednesday and Thursday, parliament will have regular sessions. The interim Bierlein government will present itself, parliament will vote to dissolve and agree on the election date, several initiatives will be voted on that were agreed by VP+FP in the past and other topics such as rolling back the smoking ban.

If the election date is set for 29.09.2019, small parties (like the Greens) can start collecting the necessary 2.600 signatures to be on the ballot, beginning on July 9 and hand in the signatures by August 2.

VP, SP and FP have already agreed on their frontrunners (Kurz, Rendi-Wagner and Hofer) and while NEOS will have internal primaries again, it is pretty sure that Meinl-Reisinger will be their lead candidate again.

That leaves the Greens and NOW without lead candidates. The Greens could have a double-ticket, like the German Greens, and might co-operate with NOW.

https://orf.at/stories/3126165


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 10, 2019, 10:37:56 am
Kurz+VP will already launch a poster campaign this week and some say it looks like Leni Riefenstahl made it:

()

Source: free VP poster.

Quote
"SP+FP have forced new elections. The people will decide. Our way forward has just begun."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 10, 2019, 11:33:37 am
Funny:

The FP is still using Straches Facebook page with almost 1 million followers, as if nothing has happened ...

Just in the last few days they posted pictures of Strache, baby and wife on Fathers Day + attack ads against the VP + how Kurz wants to create a chaos coalition with the Greens and NEOS etc. etc.

The website has 9 admins, so they must still be in contact with Strache if they regularly post new pictures from him.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: tack50 on June 10, 2019, 11:40:36 am
Kurz+VP will already launch a poster campaign this week and some say it looks like Leni Riefenstahl made it:

()

Source: free VP poster.

Quote
"SP+FP have forced new elections. The people will decide. Our way forward has just begun."

Looking at that campaign poster, I would interpret Rot-Blau as SP-VP? (which obviously doesn't make any sense)

What is VP's official colour? I know they used to use black but now they are also using blue? Or do they call it cyan/turquoise?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 10, 2019, 11:47:19 am
Rot-Blau would be SP-FP.

VP is cyan.

Which is nuts, because it was the FP/Strache who first acted to blow up the coalition and then Kurz himself who did it.

But Kurz is doing a good job at framing it in a way that SP and FP are responsible.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: Velasco on June 10, 2019, 12:22:29 pm
I'm not fluent in German, but I think the text says something like: "the red and the blue have determined people has to speak / our path (to victory) just begun". So the message conveyed is that the plots of the other parties won't prevent "the new people's party" conquers the sky (cyan blue, of course)

I'm curious to know why some people say Leni Riefenstahl made it

Also, the official colour of AfD is light blue. Is it a coincidence?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election in Sept.)
Post by: ZuWo on June 10, 2019, 12:41:17 pm
On Kurz' poster it says "Die neue Volkspartei". I guess the FP will try to emphasize the opposite in the election campaign and claim the VP is still very much controlled by the old power-hungry establishment that can't be trusted, right?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 11, 2019, 02:07:15 pm
The election date has been set for September 29, with the votes of SP and FP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 11, 2019, 11:08:54 pm
Ewa Dziedzic, Green member of the Bundesrat and who has been mentioned as part of a Doppelspitze in the coming election, has married (despite her family back in Poland being archconservative PiS voters):

 


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2019, 10:59:33 am
In the 1st day of parliament this week, the election date was confirmed.

https://www.thelocal.at/20190612/austria-set-for-early-elections-on-september-29

Also, with the votes of SP+FP+NOW+NEOS, the KAICIID (King Abdullah Center in Vienna) will be closed down. The VP voted against.

https://derstandard.at/2000104769750/Aussenministerium-will-NR-Beschluss-zu-Abdullah-Zentrum-umsetzen

Also with the votes of SP+FP+NOW, the biocide Glyphosat was banned in Austria (while the EU has not done so and extended the use at least until 2022). Glyphosat is cancerous, kills off bees and other important insects and leads to abnormalities among newborns (see Argentina).

https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-moves-to-ban-glyphosate-this-year/

https://derstandard.at/2000104746897/Glyphosat-Mehrheit-im-Nationalrat-fuer-Verbot-in-Oesterreich


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2019, 11:08:51 pm
Austria to shut Saudi-backed centre

Quote
VIENNA (Reuters) Austrias government said on Wednesday it plans to shut a Saudi-funded centre for religious dialogue in Vienna after parliament urged it to try to prevent the possible execution of a teenager in Saudi Arabia over acts committed when he was a minor.

The King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz International Centre for Interreligious and Intercultural Dialogue (KAICIID), which was opened in 2012, has long been a lightning rod in Austria for criticism of Saudi Arabias human rights record.

Austrias parliament backed a motion calling on Vienna to quit the treaty on which KAICIID is based and to revoke an agreement that bases it in the Austrian capital.

The motion also called on Austrias provisional government and the Foreign Ministry to use all political and diplomatic means available to prevent the execution of Murtaja Qureiris, an 18-year-old who rights groups say is on trial, accused of offences related to taking part in anti-government protests.

KAICIID and the Saudi embassy in Vienna were not immediately available for comment.

This is a signal for human rights in Saudi Arabia, which hopefully will be copied by many, not just in Europe, lawmaker Peter Pilz, author of the motion, said on Twitter.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/06/12/austria-to-shut-saudi-backed-religious-dialogue-centre-in-rights-protest

8-X


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 13, 2019, 11:00:51 am
The BZ wants to try again a last time and run in the coming election, after not doing so in 2017:

https://derstandard.at/2000104731795/Das-BZOe-will-zur-Nationalratswahl-wiederauferstehen

LOL.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on June 13, 2019, 11:19:47 am
Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on June 13, 2019, 11:28:07 am
What's the reasoning for the FP to ban Glyphosat? This is nothing you would especially expect a right-wing populist party to do. Fighting the EU?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 13, 2019, 11:30:18 am
What's the reasoning for the FP to ban Glyphosat? This is nothing you would especially expect a right-wing populist party to do. Fighting the EU?

I bolded the important part of what you wrote.

There's a big wing within the FP who has no problems accepting climate change as a fact and the FP also usually is a pro-environmental party. Even more so with Hofer now than with Strache.

The biggest roadblock in the way to banning glyphosate was always the business- and farmer-friendly VP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 13, 2019, 12:10:34 pm
Latest development:

The FP is apparently trying to pressure H.C. Strache to not take his EU parliament seat.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/druck-auf-strache-zu-verzichten-dafuer-soll-philippa-ins-parlament/400523107

Instead, the FP wants him to become a stay-at-home dad for his newborn son, while his wife Philippa will run on the Vienna FP-list in the coming election so that she can enter parliament and be the breadwinner in the Strache household.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Omega21 on June 13, 2019, 12:41:47 pm
What's the reasoning for the FP to ban Glyphosat? This is nothing you would especially expect a right-wing populist party to do. Fighting the EU?

Green voters from Germany shouldn't comment on Glyphosate, you are the reason it got approval in 2017.

In the 1st day of parliament this week, the election date was confirmed.

https://www.thelocal.at/20190612/austria-set-for-early-elections-on-september-29

Also, with the votes of SP+FP+NOW+NEOS, the KAICIID (King Abdullah Center in Vienna) will be closed down. The VP voted against.

https://derstandard.at/2000104769750/Aussenministerium-will-NR-Beschluss-zu-Abdullah-Zentrum-umsetzen

Also with the votes of SP+FP+NOW, the biocide Glyphosat was banned in Austria (while the EU has not done so and extended the use at least until 2022). Glyphosat is cancerous, kills off bees and other important insects and leads to abnormalities among newborns (see Argentina).

https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-moves-to-ban-glyphosate-this-year/

https://derstandard.at/2000104746897/Glyphosat-Mehrheit-im-Nationalrat-fuer-Verbot-in-Oesterreich

Austrian Green didn't vote against Glyphosate???

Looks like you need to switch up your vote Tender, as this is basically one of the most "un-green" things I've ever seen.

Better to drive a 4.0 L Raptor than to spray cancer juice across the country.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Cranberry on June 13, 2019, 01:52:38 pm
What's the reasoning for the FP to ban Glyphosat? This is nothing you would especially expect a right-wing populist party to do. Fighting the EU?
There's a big wing within the FP who has no problems accepting climate change as a fact and the FP also usually is a pro-environmental party. Even more so with Hofer now than with Strache.

That's not true, the FP are climate change deniers to the bone - remember Strache denying climate change or praising Trump for exiting the Paris agreement? Hofer himself is far more concerned with combatting chemtrails than climate change, their recent seemingly u-turn is entirely due to the fact that they realised which way the wind blows these days.

Austrian Green didn't vote against Glyphosate???

Looks like you need to switch up your vote Tender, as this is basically one of the most "un-green" things I've ever seen.

Better to drive a 4.0 L Raptor than to spray cancer juice across the country.

Seeing as the Greens are currently not in parliament, how could they have voted against it?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Cranberry on June 13, 2019, 01:54:37 pm
Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on June 13, 2019, 01:59:16 pm
What's the reasoning for the FP to ban Glyphosat? This is nothing you would especially expect a right-wing populist party to do. Fighting the EU?

Green voters from Germany shouldn't comment on Glyphosate, you are the reason it got approval in 2017.

I haven't the slightest idea what this claim is supposedly based on... ???


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on June 13, 2019, 02:05:43 pm
Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 13, 2019, 02:17:58 pm
Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?

I'm currently undecided between VP, SP, Greens and NEOS - but I have a tendency for the Greens.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: DavidB. on June 13, 2019, 02:41:47 pm
I'm currently undecided between VP, SP, Greens and NEOS - but I have a tendency for the Greens.
When another 2015 happens, you're to blame.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Omega21 on June 13, 2019, 02:47:21 pm
What's the reasoning for the FP to ban Glyphosat? This is nothing you would especially expect a right-wing populist party to do. Fighting the EU?

Green voters from Germany shouldn't comment on Glyphosate, you are the reason it got approval in 2017.

I haven't the slightest idea what this claim is supposedly based on... ???

Sorry, I accidentally wrote the wrong year.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/greens-save-glyphosate-from-eu-ban-calls-as-epp-deal-triumphs/

Quote
The unusual political agreement between the Greens and EPP led to a rejection of an amendment filed by the GUE/NGL group, which explicitly called for an immediate EU-wide ban on the production, sale and use of glyphosate and all plant protection products containing glyphosate.

Seeing as the Greens are currently not in parliament, how could they have voted against it?

Yeah, completely forgot about that lol... In any case, they are all the same, as seen in the article above.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 13, 2019, 02:51:53 pm
I'm currently undecided between VP, SP, Greens and NEOS - but I have a tendency for the Greens.
When another 2015 happens, you're to blame.

I can oppose mass immigration and vote Green at the same time (especially, since they have learned from their mistakes of the past and shut up about importing people from Africa and the Middle-East right now and focus on what matters and what the party was founded on: environmentalism).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: DavidB. on June 13, 2019, 02:53:54 pm
I'm currently undecided between VP, SP, Greens and NEOS - but I have a tendency for the Greens.
When another 2015 happens, you're to blame.

I can oppose mass immigration and vote Green at the same time (especially, since they have learned from their mistakes of the past and shut up about importing people from Africa and the Middle-East right now and focus on what matters and what the party was founded on: environmentalism).
Hahahaha. I have a bridge to sell to you.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on June 13, 2019, 03:23:56 pm
What's the reasoning for the FP to ban Glyphosat? This is nothing you would especially expect a right-wing populist party to do. Fighting the EU?

Green voters from Germany shouldn't comment on Glyphosate, you are the reason it got approval in 2017.

I haven't the slightest idea what this claim is supposedly based on... ???

Sorry, I accidentally wrote the wrong year.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/greens-save-glyphosate-from-eu-ban-calls-as-epp-deal-triumphs/

Quote
The unusual political agreement between the Greens and EPP led to a rejection of an amendment filed by the GUE/NGL group, which explicitly called for an immediate EU-wide ban on the production, sale and use of glyphosate and all plant protection products containing glyphosate.

Seeing as the Greens are currently not in parliament, how could they have voted against it?

Yeah, completely forgot about that lol... In any case, they are all the same, as seen in the article above.

The article's headline "Greens save glyphosate" is overstating quite a bit. As I understand it, the GUE-NGL's proposal still would have failed to win a majority even with the Greens' votes behind it. And voting for the GUE-NGL proposal would have killed the compromise with the EPP "calling for a rethink of the EUs pesticide approval system", meaning had the Greens voted to ban glyphosate it would have in fact reduced the chances of an actual glyphosate ban in the long run. That's essentially how politics work: what's realistically the best option to achieve progress on a specific issue. You can't ban glyphosate just with the GUE-NGL. But you can work with the EPP to reduce glyphosate.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Cranberry on June 13, 2019, 03:32:41 pm
Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on June 13, 2019, 04:03:29 pm
Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KP), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SP) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.
And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Cranberry on June 13, 2019, 04:18:13 pm
Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KP), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SP) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.
And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SP in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. VP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the VP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on June 13, 2019, 05:21:12 pm
Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KP), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SP) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.
And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SP in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. VP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the VP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.
You really don't see that coming seriously? The medias are playing this narrative


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 13, 2019, 11:17:51 pm
VP-Greens-NEOS is the most likely option right now. I think the Greens will come around and enter the coalition if offered the choice to govern and if Kurz sends more moderate signals on certain topics.

VP-FP 3.0 is also quite likely.

Even VP-SP could be likely, but probably only if the SP gets soundly defeated and Rendi-Wagner is replaced with someone else.

---

Also: The Greens will announce their lead candidate(s) today. Signs are pointing towards party leader Werner Kogler, who has led the Greens to a surprisingly high 14%+ in the EU elections and who gets extremely good support from the Green base because of it. It is likely that if Kogler runs, there will be a German-style Doppelspitze with a woman as his backup.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Gruene-geben-Spitzenkandidaten-bekannt/384453595


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: rob in cal on June 14, 2019, 12:51:53 am
  Tender, do you think a new OVP FPO coalition is fairly possible soon?  I thought with all the bad blood developing over the Strache affair, plus FPO actually voting to unseat Kurz etc that that would not be very likely at all in the near future at any rate.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 14, 2019, 09:05:42 am
  Tender, do you think a new OVP FPO coalition is fairly possible soon?  I thought with all the bad blood developing over the Strache affair, plus FPO actually voting to unseat Kurz etc that that would not be very likely at all in the near future at any rate.

They could find ways to get back together again, but I assume only if Kickl does not become Interior Minister again.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 14, 2019, 09:06:49 am
The Greens will announce their lead candidate(s) today. Signs are pointing towards party leader Werner Kogler, who has led the Greens to a surprisingly high 14%+ in the EU elections and who gets extremely good support from the Green base because of it. It is likely that if Kogler runs, there will be a German-style Doppelspitze with a woman as his backup.

Green-leader Werner Kogler has decided not to take his seat in the EU parliament and become frontrunner for the September election instead.

https://orf.at/stories/3126769

Good choice.

Kogler is a folksy guy and a good debater.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 14, 2019, 10:55:23 am
The Vienna-FP just voted to grant Philippa Strache the 3rd spot on their election list for September, guaranteeing her entry into the Austrian parliament (assuming she accepts the deal and H.C. Strache refuses to take his EU parliament seat):

()
Credit: Austrian Press Agency, open domain.

If elected, Philippa Strache will become the animal rights spokesperson for the FP in parliament because their old MP will retire. Philippa is also a former SP-voter and parliamentary aide for the SP, before H.C. turned her blue.

https://derstandard.at/2000104891170/Philippa-StracheJetzt-steigt-Frau-Strache-in-die-politische-Arena

https://derstandard.at/2000104897130/FPOe-Wien-macht-Philippa-Strache-zum-Fixstarter-fuer-Nationalrat


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 16, 2019, 01:06:17 am
FP-Kickl says that the party will end up with 20%+ in the election and could even end up close to the 26% they got in 2017 if the election campaign goes well for them ("Norbert Hofer leading the party into the election is the best thing that could happen.")

He also said that this time he won't be the FP's campaign manager and therefore not responsible for their campaign posters and that VP-FP could be possible again. He said that Kurz personally wanted to continue the previous government, but was pressured into kicking Kickl out of government by the so-called "old, black VP types" (meaning their Governors in the states).

https://orf.at/stories/3126958


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Cranberry on June 16, 2019, 01:48:57 am
Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KP), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SP) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.
And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SP in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. VP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the VP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.
You really don't see that coming seriously? The medias are playing this narrative

It doesn't make sense to me, no. Kogler himself called it extremely unlikely yesterday ("I lack the fantasy needed to imagine that"), which is not a surprise, given Kurz has spent the last two years acting completely contrary to the Green's interests.

https://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/15756081/gruenen-chef-kogler-fuer-koalition-mit-kurz-fehlt-mir-die-fantasie (https://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/15756081/gruenen-chef-kogler-fuer-koalition-mit-kurz-fehlt-mir-die-fantasie)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 16, 2019, 02:35:21 am
Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.
Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KP), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SP) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.
And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SP in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. VP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the VP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.
You really don't see that coming seriously? The medias are playing this narrative

It doesn't make sense to me, no. Kogler himself called it extremely unlikely yesterday ("I lack the fantasy needed to imagine that"), which is not a surprise, given Kurz has spent the last two years acting completely contrary to the Green's interests.

https://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/15756081/gruenen-chef-kogler-fuer-koalition-mit-kurz-fehlt-mir-die-fantasie (https://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/15756081/gruenen-chef-kogler-fuer-koalition-mit-kurz-fehlt-mir-die-fantasie)

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another VP-FP coalition ?
* VP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 16, 2019, 02:59:42 am
Notice for Kalwejt, regarding the posting of pictures/copyright:

In the future, I will post pictures here from the APA (Austrian Press Agency) and from the Federal Chancellery, who grant their pictures to be posted on websites for political education purposes for free, if the source and name of the photographer are mentioned below the picture.

Quote
Punkt 3:

Soweit nicht ohnehin das Recht auf freie Werknutzung, insbesondere gem 42 UrhG besteht, erteilt der Bund die

nicht bertragbare,
nicht ausschlieliche,
zeitlich und rumlich unbeschrnkte
Bewilligung das Bildmaterial des Fotoservice, an dem dem Bund die Rechte zustehen, kostenfrei

zu nicht kommerziellen Zwecken,
zu redaktionellen Zwecken von Medien und
zu Zwecken im Bereich der politischen Bildung
zu vervielfltigen, zu verbreiten, zu senden, ffentlich vorzufhren oder im Internet zur Verfgung zu stellen.


Eine darber hinausgehende Nutzung, insbesondere fr Werbezwecke, ist nicht zulssig.

Punkt 4:

Bei Verffentlichung des Fotomaterials muss das abgebildete Sujet der Bildquelle und dem jeweiligen Fotografen zugeordnet werden knnen. Das gilt auch fr Sammelbilder. Das Fotoservice des BKA ist als Bildquelle und mittels Schrgstrich nachgesetzt, der Name der Fotografin bzw. des Fotografen zu nennen. Beispiel: BKA/Andy Wenzel.

http://fotoservice.bundeskanzleramt.at/nutzungsbedingungen.html

For example:

[picture]

Source: (http://fotoservice.bundeskanzleramt.at/nutzungsbedingungen.html) BKA/Andy Wenzel

It also says so on the English-version of the Chancellery:

Quote
Copyright

Federal Chancellery of Austria 2019

Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. Any restrictions on use shall be clearly indicated.

https://www.bundeskanzleramt.gv.at/en/copyright.html?lang=en


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Cranberry on June 16, 2019, 03:37:24 am
Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 16, 2019, 03:50:21 am
Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another VP-FP coalition ?
* VP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither VP nor FP to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180 and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FP are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SP, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SP, the less mathematically possible does VP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SP could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the VP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SP will not get their act together in 3 months and the FP will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% VP, 20-24% SP, 17-21% FP, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SP+FP would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Cranberry on June 16, 2019, 05:08:34 am
Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another VP-FP coalition ?
* VP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither VP nor FP to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180 and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FP are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SP, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SP, the less mathematically possible does VP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SP could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the VP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SP will not get their act together in 3 months and the FP will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% VP, 20-24% SP, 17-21% FP, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SP+FP would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

Right now, I completely agree with you. My point was that three months is a long time, and a lot of things can happen between then and now. But as of the present point, I agree that this is the most likely.

So let's hypothesise with that starting point, taking the middle of your ranges: VP 37, SP 22, FP 19, Greens 11, Neos 7. VP-Neos, the most natural formation, doesn't have a majority, neither does Red-Blue. VP-Greens-Neos is unlikely imo for reasons outlined above, VP-FP is more likely imo but I don't really think Kurz will go for that again with such a relatively strong FP if he has other options. That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 16, 2019, 10:40:43 am
Wow, this is sickening:




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Umengus on June 16, 2019, 10:45:32 am

why ?

it's just a pray... what is your problem with that ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 16, 2019, 10:50:48 am

why ?

it's just a pray... what is your problem with that ?

Just a pray ? Kurz and his cult-like followers are setting the guy up to be a modern Jesus or Messiah, who is out to clean Austria from all the evil.

A prayer session in a Mega-Church in Oklahoma feat. Ted Cruz could not top that and we are talking about Austria here, where state and religion is supposedly seperated ... !

The fact that Kurz is willing to tie himself to these ultra-Christian stuff is highly disturbing IMO.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 16, 2019, 01:04:31 pm
The Greens have announced that there will be no co-operation or fusion with NOW for the election.

https://www.sn.at/politik/innenpolitik/liste-jetzt-bedauert-nein-der-gruenen-zu-kooperation-71807263


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 16, 2019, 02:07:24 pm
The Europride was held in Vienna and 500.000 people attended.

President Van der Bellen was the 1st European President to address the crowd (or so it was said):





Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: DavidB. on June 16, 2019, 02:59:35 pm
That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.
Hahaha, this would be a hilariously unpopular disaster. Don't you think it was a mistake for Kurz to pull the plug? If I were the VP I'd be cautiously shifting away from the anti-FP talk, as they remain by far the easiest coalition partner and VP-FP by far remains the coalition in which the VP can acquire the most powerful position...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Cranberry on June 16, 2019, 04:13:17 pm
That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.
Hahaha, this would be a hilariously unpopular disaster. Don't you think it was a mistake for Kurz to pull the plug? If I were the ÖVP I'd be cautiously shifting away from the anti-FPÖ talk, as they remain by far the easiest coalition partner and ÖVP-FPÖ by far remains the coalition in which the ÖVP can acquire the most powerful position...
Of course it would be, but that I don't think that this would hold back the usual suspects to try it anyway.
It's become pretty clear Kurz tried to copy Schüssel all along and just waited for the best moment to pull the plug to subsequently win the election so big that he could take everyone. Of course, history repeats itself second as a farce, so just wait and see if he didn't gamble too big.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: tack50 on June 16, 2019, 07:02:38 pm

why ?

it's just a pray... what is your problem with that ?

Just a pray ? Kurz and his cult-like followers are setting the guy up to be a modern Jesus or Messiah, who is out to clean Austria from all the evil.

A prayer session in a Mega-Church in Oklahoma feat. Ted Cruz could not top that and we are talking about Austria here, where state and religion is supposedly seperated ... !

The fact that Kurz is willing to tie himself to these ultra-Christian stuff is highly disturbing IMO.

I would have thought the ultra-Christians would be FP voters and not VP ones? I guess christian democrats still do get the devout christian vote.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: tack50 on June 16, 2019, 07:05:34 pm
Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another VP-FP coalition ?
* VP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither VP nor FP to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180 and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FP are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SP, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SP, the less mathematically possible does VP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SP could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the VP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SP will not get their act together in 3 months and the FP will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% VP, 20-24% SP, 17-21% FP, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SP+FP would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

Right now, I completely agree with you. My point was that three months is a long time, and a lot of things can happen between then and now. But as of the present point, I agree that this is the most likely.

So let's hypothesise with that starting point, taking the middle of your ranges: VP 37, SP 22, FP 19, Greens 11, Neos 7. VP-Neos, the most natural formation, doesn't have a majority, neither does Red-Blue. VP-Greens-Neos is unlikely imo for reasons outlined above, VP-FP is more likely imo but I don't really think Kurz will go for that again with such a relatively strong FP if he has other options. That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.

If Germany is any indication, going for VP-SP would be suicidal for at least one of the 2 (most likely SP) and arguably both.

If SP-Greens-NEOS does not get a majority and neither does VP-NEOS, I think the best course of action would be VP-FP again.

Then again grand coalitions are even more common in Austria than in Germany if I am not mistaken? And SP seems more competent than the German SPD?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on June 16, 2019, 07:58:22 pm
Let's quote a quote from The Right Honourable Francis Urquhart to describe Kurz: "no background and no bottom".


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Omega21 on June 17, 2019, 04:17:51 pm
Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another VP-FP coalition ?
* VP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither VP nor FP to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180 and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FP are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SP, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SP, the less mathematically possible does VP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SP could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the VP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SP will not get their act together in 3 months and the FP will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% VP, 20-24% SP, 17-21% FP, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SP+FP would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

Right now, I completely agree with you. My point was that three months is a long time, and a lot of things can happen between then and now. But as of the present point, I agree that this is the most likely.

So let's hypothesise with that starting point, taking the middle of your ranges: VP 37, SP 22, FP 19, Greens 11, Neos 7. VP-Neos, the most natural formation, doesn't have a majority, neither does Red-Blue. VP-Greens-Neos is unlikely imo for reasons outlined above, VP-FP is more likely imo but I don't really think Kurz will go for that again with such a relatively strong FP if he has other options. That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.

If Germany is any indication, going for VP-SP would be suicidal for at least one of the 2 (most likely SP) and arguably both.

If SP-Greens-NEOS does not get a majority and neither does VP-NEOS, I think the best course of action would be VP-FP again.

Then again grand coalitions are even more common in Austria than in Germany if I am not mistaken? And SP seems more competent than the German SPD?

This.

The reds pull left > the Kurz voters who came from FP return to the FP

VP pulls right > the more left-wing part of the SP goes to Greens



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 17, 2019, 11:38:45 pm
The public ORF broadcaster has decided to allow the Greens to take part in the upcoming TV debates for the election, despite the fact that they are not in parliament right now:

https://www.krone.at/1943399

The FP is not amused.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Cranberry on June 18, 2019, 03:11:59 am
Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another VP-FP coalition ?
* VP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither VP nor FP to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180 and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FP are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SP, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SP, the less mathematically possible does VP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SP could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the VP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SP will not get their act together in 3 months and the FP will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% VP, 20-24% SP, 17-21% FP, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SP+FP would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

Right now, I completely agree with you. My point was that three months is a long time, and a lot of things can happen between then and now. But as of the present point, I agree that this is the most likely.

So let's hypothesise with that starting point, taking the middle of your ranges: VP 37, SP 22, FP 19, Greens 11, Neos 7. VP-Neos, the most natural formation, doesn't have a majority, neither does Red-Blue. VP-Greens-Neos is unlikely imo for reasons outlined above, VP-FP is more likely imo but I don't really think Kurz will go for that again with such a relatively strong FP if he has other options. That leaves imo Proporz IV - the biggest stumble block, Kurz and Kern's personal hatred, is gone. There are a lot of people in both parties that still want that to happen, and if PRW is toppled by someone like Dosko after such a disastrous result, I can see it happen after lengthy negotiations when nothing else really works.

If Germany is any indication, going for VP-SP would be suicidal for at least one of the 2 (most likely SP) and arguably both.

If SP-Greens-NEOS does not get a majority and neither does VP-NEOS, I think the best course of action would be VP-FP again.

Then again grand coalitions are even more common in Austria than in Germany if I am not mistaken? And SP seems more competent than the German SPD?

Let's not act as if grand coalitions are anything but the norm in Austria - we've had three so far: 1945-1966 (VP/SP), 1987-1999 and 2006-2017 (both SP/VP). It certainly wouldn't be a disaster of the German level, round here it's far more a return to the norm rather than an unpopular experiment. It certainly wouldn't be popular with voters, but neither would be any other possible government majority I can think of. The problem is that there is a clear centre-right majority in Austria whose government just broke up but whose voters stay with their parties. In essence, the relationship between the "blocks" (SP/Greens/Jetzt vs VP/FP with Neos in the middle) hasn't really changed since 2017, but the "right block" that clearly has a majority just broke up.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 18, 2019, 10:54:17 am
"EU-No !", which failed to get onto the ballot for the EU elections, will try again in September for the federal election under the name "XIT: Platform for Homeland, Environment, Neutrality and Direct Democracy."

It will be relatively easy this time to get on the ballot, because unlike in the EU election where you needed 2.600 signatures Austria-wide, you can also contest the election in single states as well, with signatures ranging from 100-500 in each state. They got some 2.400 for the EU election.

https://orf.at/#/stories/3127242


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 18, 2019, 11:32:13 am
VP+Greens decided today that the Vorarlberg state election will be held on Oct. 13:

https://derstandard.at/2000105066301/Vorarlberg-Wahl-fix-am-13-Oktober


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 18, 2019, 11:26:43 pm
H.C. Strache already planning his comeback:

* There has been a deal between the FP and the Straches, which both sides accepted

* H.C. Strache will not take his EU seat and stay mostly "quiet" for the next year

* Instead, he got a consulting job for the FP, worth 10.000 per month

* His wife Philippa will run for parliament this fall, worth 9.000 per month

* This will compensate for the 20.000 per month H.C. earned as Vice-Chancellor

* If the state prosecution does not charge Strache with anything, Strache will return as FP-lead candidate for the important 2020 Vienna state election (but only assuming the state prosecution announces so several months before the state election). Otherwise, Dominik Nepp will become lead candidate.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/heinz-christian-strache-plant-sein-comeback-in-oesterreich-a-1272827.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 19, 2019, 10:48:20 am
New SORA/Integral poll for the public ORF broadcaster:


For the first time since 2002, a majority for VP+Greens.

Also, a new high for the Greens. Not an all-time high, but certainly for the past few years.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on June 19, 2019, 02:58:48 pm
H.C. Strache already planning his comeback:

* There has been a deal between the FP and the Straches, which both sides accepted

* H.C. Strache will not take his EU seat and stay mostly "quiet" for the next year

* Instead, he got a consulting job for the FP, worth 10.000 per month

* His wife Philippa will run for parliament this fall, worth 9.000 per month

* This will compensate for the 20.000 per month H.C. earned as Vice-Chancellor

* If the state prosecution does not charge Strache with anything, Strache will return as FP-lead candidate for the important 2020 Vienna state election (but only assuming the state prosecution announces so several months before the state election). Otherwise, Dominik Nepp will become lead candidate.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/heinz-christian-strache-plant-sein-comeback-in-oesterreich-a-1272827.html
I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 19, 2019, 11:30:29 pm
I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet).

The only European country which still has the death penalty is Belarus.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 21, 2019, 04:13:16 am
APA/OGM's new "trust index" of major politicians shows that for the first time, Kurz is no longer the most trusted politician in the country.

His numbers have gone down by a lot and he was overtaken by interim Chancellor Bierlein and President VdB:

()

The chart shows the balance of "I have trust" minus "I have no trust" in this politician.

Werner Kogler and Beate Meinl-Reisinger have decent numbers for leaders of small opposition parties, Pamela Rendi-Wagner not so much and Peter Pilz is down and out.

Interesting also that Norbert Hofer has gone from roughly balanced to a strong negative saldo after taking over the FP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 21, 2019, 04:27:48 am
After 2 weeks into her job, Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein has attended her first EU summit yesterday:

()

Source: (http://fotoservice.bundeskanzleramt.at/bka/bundeskanzlerin_bierlein/20190620_eu_gipfel/_NO_7702.html) BKA/Andy Wenzel (free)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 21, 2019, 09:05:32 am
I think that turnout could hit 81-85% this time.

Why ?

Because until now, early elections always had higher turnout than the election before ...

1970: 91.8%
1971: 92.4%

1994: 81.9%
1995: 86.0%

1999: 80.4%
2002: 84.3%

2006: 78.5%
2008: 78.8%

2013: 74.9%
2017: 80.0%
2019: ?

I think this year is very similar to the 1999 -> 2002 situation.

Also, the fact that the Greens could enter parliament again and increased enthusiasm among the young crowd due to the climate change strikes are speaking in favour of higher turnout this time.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on June 21, 2019, 09:21:16 am
I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet).

The only European country which still has the death penalty is Belarus.

And Austria is among the least likely countries to bring it back.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 21, 2019, 10:57:15 am
I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet).

The only European country which still has the death penalty is Belarus.

And Austria is among the least likely countries to bring it back.

Yes, support is only 10%.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: President Johnson on June 21, 2019, 02:02:32 pm
Will Bierlein return the court after the election or is this the "crown" of her career in public service? I remember Greece had the head of the highest court acting as prime minister ahead of snap elections.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 21, 2019, 11:01:20 pm
Will Bierlein return to the court after the election or is this the "crown" of her career in public service?

Bierlein would have retired as Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court anyway in July after their final session for the year, because there's an age limit of 70.

She turns 70 on Tuesday.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 22, 2019, 07:34:27 am


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 22, 2019, 07:39:44 am
While the other parties are preparing their election campaigns, the SP is ironing in Burgenland:



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: DL on June 22, 2019, 05:39:01 pm
What would an OVP/Green coalition government be like from the point of view of policy? How much would change with the FPO being replaced by the Greens as the junior partner?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 23, 2019, 03:00:22 am
What would an OVP/Green coalition government be like from the point of view of policy? How much would change with the FPO being replaced by the Greens as the junior partner?

A couple things:

* First, an VP-Green coalition might not happen for 2 reasons: because it's not possible electorally (something like 35% VP, 11% Greens) or 49%-49% for the government and opposition blocks but you need a few additional surplus seats for a stable government - or because the main actors are opposed to such a coalition. On the other hand, an VP-Green government would make the most sense (together with NEOS, if they are needed) because it would be the most centrist, the most non-controversial and stable coalition with no headwinds from Europe.

* Second, not trying such a coalition would be incredibly stupid on the part of Kurz and the VP. Why ? If Kurz would opt for the FP again, they get a stronger coalition partner with more demands and controversial people again. Plus, Europe would cry out again. With the Greens entering parliament again and probably finishing around 10-14%, the chances of big demands are lower than with the FP as coalition partner. Especially on the topic of migration, asylum and security. The FP would claim it is "their" topics again, where they want to be in charge. The Greens on the other hand have learned their part over the last years and largely shut up on the topic of immigration and focused on environment and social topics instead. By entering parliament again and then shouting aloud again: "WE WANT MORE IMMIGRANTS IN AUSTRIA !" they would risk being kicked out of parliament again, or being demonized again by the public and other parties. The Greens will therefore make moves towards the center and the VP will also move to the center during such coalition talks.

* Third, if the people involved in the talks are willing to create such a government it should be easier than in the past, especially after the disaster talks between VP-Greens in 2002 - then led by Schssel and Van der Bellen. Van der Bellen is now President and will certainly look for a better ending this time for his Greens. He will act as mediator and will be a huge factor in creating such a government. Besides, all the VP-Greens governments in the states (such as in Vorarlberg, Tyrol, Salzburg, Upper Austria) were all successful and were re-elected. If the Greens can get their Vienna-group in line and the VP their farmers and business wings, then a coalition could be coming by Christmas. I think they will find some compromises on the economy, debt, taxes and especially the environment.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 23, 2019, 03:26:25 am
Here is the map of winners by district in the EU election:

()

Considering a 5.5% swing based on current polls, the SP could lose almost all their strongholds to the VP in September, which would be a catastrophe for them:

()

Only Vienna as a whole, Linz, Steyr and Villach + suburbs could remain as SP-wins.

They could lose all their former industrial, working-class districts in Styria (mining, steel) to the VP and could not win a single (!) district in Burgenland.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: tack50 on June 23, 2019, 07:24:12 am
Here is the map of winners by district in the EU election:

()

Considering a 5.5% swing based on current polls, the SP could lose almost all their strongholds to the VP in September, which would be a catastrophe for them:

()

Only Vienna as a whole, Linz, Steyr and Villach + suburbs could remain as SP-wins.

They could lose all their former industrial, working-class districts in Styria (mining, steel) to the VP and could not win a single (!) district in Burgenland.

To be fair, polls are predicting what, 38-23 for the VP?

If the results was reversed, you would see the opposite, a completely red map with a handful of pockets of cyan.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 23, 2019, 07:57:28 am
Here is the map of winners by district in the EU election:

()

Considering a 5.5% swing based on current polls, the SP could lose almost all their strongholds to the VP in September, which would be a catastrophe for them:

()

Only Vienna as a whole, Linz, Steyr and Villach + suburbs could remain as SP-wins.

They could lose all their former industrial, working-class districts in Styria (mining, steel) to the VP and could not win a single (!) district in Burgenland.

To be fair, polls are predicting what, 38-23 for the VP?

If the results was reversed, you would see the opposite, a completely red map with a handful of pockets of cyan.

Not really, there would be more rural VP areas in such a case than urban SP areas in the upcoming case, as the rural areas seem to still be more loyal to the VP in such wave elections.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 on June 23, 2019, 10:13:45 am
How is the SPO-FPO government in Burgenland and seen these days by the public and the party cadre?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 23, 2019, 02:07:49 pm
How is the SPO-FPO government in Burgenland seen these days by the public and the party cadre?

There will be state elections in January next year. They were called a few months earlier than normal (May), but that is usually not uncommon. But with Ibiza, it is more likely now that the SP dumps the FP next year, despite the government being mostly OK (its not like the FP has much to say there ...)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2019, 10:09:44 am
Brand-new ATV/Hajek/POS poll (n=800 eligible voters aged 16+, June 24-28, MoE = +/- 3.5%):

38% VP (+6.5)
20% FP (-6.0)
20% SP (-6.9)
11% Greens (+7.2)
  9% NEOS (+3.7)
  1% NOW (-3.4)
  1% Others (-1.1)

Link (https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190628_OTS0187/sperrfrist-bis-1920-uhr-am-2862019-atv-oesterreich-trend-oevp-bei-sonntagsfrage-und-fiktiver-kanzlerwahl-klar-in-fuehrung)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2019, 03:09:40 pm
Also from the new ATV poll:

The 10 most important issues in the coming election campaign.

31% climate change, environmental protection
24% immigration, integration, asylum
19% affordable housing
18% pensions
16% health care
16% old-age care
11% corruption
10% crime
  9% education, kindergarten, universities
  7% creation of new jobs

https://derstandard.at/2000105602103/43-Prozent-der-Oesterreicher-wollen-mehr-Geld-fuer-das-Bundesheer

That's pretty good for the Greens, because until now "immigration, integration, asylum" has always topped the list of most important issues by a big margin.

But considering June has set new heat records all over Europe and also here in Austria (June was 6C hotter (!) than the average June of the past 30 years), the Greens can only benefit from the changing climate ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: President Johnson on June 29, 2019, 04:27:40 am
Looks like Green phenomena has swept to Austria as well. Obviously they take most votes from the SP.

If Kurz wins the election, I hope he forms a coalition with the NEOS to establish a centrist, pro-EU government.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 29, 2019, 06:41:55 am
Looks like Green phenomena has swept to Austria as well. Obviously they take most votes from the SP.

If Kurz wins the election, I hope he forms a coalition with the NEOS to establish a centrist, pro-EU government.

VP-NEOS will likely not be possible ... but VP-Greens could be.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 29, 2019, 02:50:39 pm
The coming week will see a final rush of policy proposals being brought before parliament, now that theres room for fluid majorities due to the VP-FP government collapse.

We could see several important topics being passed, ranging from higher pensions to strengthening bi-national LGBT marriages, banning glyphosate, the re-introduction of a public smoking ban, raising old-age care money, a plastic packaging ban, increasing the time for paternal leave or a return of the 20.000+ job offensive from the SP that the government killed. Most of the initiatives will likely be passed by varying majorities by different parties.

Parliament will then enter summer recess and return to work in September, slightly ahead of the election.

https://www.vn.at/titelblatt/2019/06/28/plastiktasche-wird-geschichte.vn


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on June 30, 2019, 12:23:17 am
Kurz wants to make Austria Hydrogen-country #1:

The VP will present their climate plans tomorrow, which include 500 million in support for companies who settle in Austria to develop hydrogen cars or better hydrogen power units.

A major hydrogen business cluster should be established in the country, where companies can share their know-how on the topic and the hydrogen grid to re-fill the cars should be significantly expanded.

()
Source: Wikipedia

On the other hand, the VP also wants to promote e-cars and to make Austria 100% carbon-neutral by 2045.

The VP is against any additional taxes though to burden the middle-class, or further bans.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5652197/OeVP-setzt-fuer-das-Klima-auf-Wasserstoff


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 01, 2019, 01:23:35 pm
The SP is attacking 6-year old Linda who gave a letter to Kurz recently, in which she wrote that she's disappointed how "people have taken on Kurz".

The 6-year old girl calls herself "a devoted fan of Kurz since age 4 already" and says "she's unhappy that she cannot vote yet, but wishes him all the best for the coming election".

The SP calls bullsh*t and says the letter and video is staged and that Kurz instrumentalizes small children for his political campaign ...

()

Source: Kurz's Instagram page

This is all pretty funny, because the SP had small kids on 2 of their EU campaign posters.

https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Spott-nach-Fanpost-von-Maedchen--6--an-Kurz-48780382


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 02, 2019, 10:40:17 am
The party "NOW" is falling apart:

Today, 5 of their original 8 (and currently 7) MPs announced that they will either not run again for parliament in the September election or run for the Greens. At least one, Alma Zadic, has said that she will try to get a spot on the federal Green list (which the Greens confirmed). That's not a sure thing yet, because the Greens have an internal IRV primary system for their lists. The other 4 have just said they will not run again, or will return to their previous jobs.

That means only party founder Peter Pilz and Daniela Holzinger are left to run in the coming election, because the 6th (Martha Bissmann) was kicked out of the party last year. It's likely that Holzinger and party leader Maria Stern also leave the party and Pilz is left on his own ... :P

Anyway, Pilz said that they will still run in the election and will present a new list with different people by the end of July ...

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5653299/Fuenf-von-sieben-Abgeordneten-treten-nicht-mehr-fuer-Jetzt-an


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 02, 2019, 11:02:57 am
HUGE day in parliament !

Things that were passed today by varying majorities:

* new party finance laws, with a cap for private and business donations and a public financing bonus for 40%+ women in a parliamentary group

* a constitutional ban on privatizing Austria's water, to prevent water sales to foreign businesses or countries (take a close look Strache, you will not sell our water to the Russians !)

* VP-FP's pro-smoking law was killed and a complete public smoking ban will be introduced in November.

* much higher minimum pensions after 40 years of contributions (1.315, 14x per year).

* more paternal leave for fathers, now with a legal framework and better protection so that companies cannot opt out or fire the male employee if he states his wish to go on parental leave.

* a total ban on glyphosate in Austria

* a total ban on gay conversion therapies in Austria

* a total ban on plastic packings and bags starting in January 2021 (companies were given some time to get rid of their stock of current bags in the next 1.5 years).

* first-responders in jobs, who are called to an emergency by working for the Red Cross, Firefighters, etc. will get better financial protection in case they have to leave their jobs for a few days. Now, all voluntary work will be compensated instead of taking a private holiday.

* VP-FP-NEOS also unveiled plans for a constitutional debt and deficit brake again, which could be passed in parliament in the September session. They have a 2/3 majority in the Nationalrat, but not in the Bundesrat where the SP could block it.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 02, 2019, 11:13:07 am
The ban on gay conversion therapies in Austria was passed with the votes of all 5 parties today, incl. the FP:

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190702_OTS0245/nationalrat-einstimmig-fuer-gesetzliches-verbot-von-konversionstherapien-an-minderjaehrigen

According to Wikipedia, that would make Austria the 1st country (?!?) in Europe to ban the practice.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 03, 2019, 09:18:04 am
The BZ wants to try again a last time and run in the coming election, after not doing so in 2017:

https://derstandard.at/2000104731795/Das-BZOe-will-zur-Nationalratswahl-wiederauferstehen

LOL.

They will run under the name of "Alliance of Patriots (https://www.bzoe-kaernten.at/nr-wahl-19/)" (AdP) and their main proposals are an exit from the EU and the Euro, a guaranteed non-conditional basic income, promotion and protection of the traditional family, "real" and not hyped/fake environmental protection and anti-vaxxing as an individual choice of parents to promote freedom.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 04, 2019, 04:35:47 am
Yesterday, the final plenary day in parliament before the summer break led to another flurry of important laws being passed, among them:

* Lex Uber: Consolidation of the taxi laws in Austria, which means Uber and others will be forced to comply with the taxi umbrella organisations rules to avoid price dumping. Uber is not amused, ontrary to the taxi organisation, but will remain in Austria for the time being (the law will only take effect in September 2020).

* Sex-education in schools: With the votes of VP-FP, external consulting groups for sex education in public schools were banned after it emerged that one such group handed out information brochures critical of gays and lesbians as "abnormal" or "mentally ill".

* Better e-government online services in the future, which allows citizens and companies to aquire documents such as birth certificates etc. online quickly.

Additionally, the election date of Sept. 29th was made official yesterday.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: bigic on July 04, 2019, 06:58:08 am

* Lex Uber: Consolidation of the taxi laws in Austria, which means Uber and others will be forced to comply with the taxi umbrella organisations rules to avoid price dumping. Uber is not amused, ontrary to the taxi organisation, but will remain in Austria for the time being (the law will only take effect in September 2020).

The law is good only for the limited number of taxi drivers and companies who are protected by such laws. Everybody else loses.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 04, 2019, 07:51:14 am
* Lex Uber: Consolidation of the taxi laws in Austria, which means Uber and others will be forced to comply with the taxi umbrella organisations rules to avoid price dumping. Uber is not amused, ontrary to the taxi organisation, but will remain in Austria for the time being (the law will only take effect in September 2020).

The law is good only for the limited number of taxi drivers and companies who are protected by such laws. Everybody else loses.

It seems that all taxi drivers + all Uber drivers using rental cars will be effected by the new law (which is a merger of the taxi transportation and rental car transportation laws). Same rules and regulations for everyone, incl. the same set of prices. There's probably only a few black sheep left.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 04, 2019, 08:29:25 am
HUGE day in parliament !

Things that were passed today by varying majorities:

Some of the new laws that were passed in parliament this week are already budgeted for the next years, while others are not.

The Finance Minister has calculated that the non-budgeted laws/amendments will cost ca. 1.2 Bio. (or ca. 300 Mio. a year) until 2022.

That's OK though, because Austria will have budget surpluses of ca. 0.6% (= 2.4 Bio. annually) in the coming 3 years.

()

Source: Austrian Press Agency/APA


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 04, 2019, 01:44:41 pm
New 24/Research Affairs poll (June 27-July 4, n=1.002, MoE= +/- 3.2%):

()

Vote by gender:

()

Preference of first-time voters vs. recently-retired voters:

()

Chancellor vote:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 04, 2019, 02:33:41 pm
In other news, there's still a lot of bad blood between the VP and SP, as seen yesterday:

* In one case, SP-leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner said during her PULS 4 TV summer interview that the VP is basically a prostitute & that the party was "buyable" by wealthy corporate donors ahead of the 2017 election.

* In the other case, parliamentary speaker (!) Wolfgang Sobotka (VP) shouted & gestured wildly during the final parliament session, getting a red head like a tomato and almost exploded while listening to SP's Leichtfried's speech.


Therefore I still think that VP-SP is DOA and VP-FP, VP-Greens-NEOS or VP-Greens will happen.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: President Johnson on July 04, 2019, 02:41:55 pm
Tender, who do you prefer as chancellor from the three major party leaders?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 04, 2019, 04:49:22 pm
Tender, who do you prefer as chancellor from the three major party leaders?

Pamela Rendi-Wagner.

But I will vote for the Greens this time and Werner Kogler would make a good Chancellor too.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 05, 2019, 01:13:00 am
New 24/Research Affairs poll (June 27-July 4, n=1.002, MoE= +/- 3.2%)

It should be noted that this poll also had a sub-sample of states and Vienna has ca. 200 respondents, so it can be looked at, and the results there are fascinating:

31% SP
30% VP

In 2017, the SP was 13% ahead of the VP in the capital ... now a swing of 12% there apparently.

And in case of an actual VP-win in the capital, it would be the biggest embarrassment for the SP in more than 100 years of party history. The SP was once at 70% in Vienna ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 05, 2019, 06:59:58 am
The rising Greens are voting on their federal list for the election tomorrow at a convention in Vienna:


There are 26 major candidates who are running for 14 spots. History has shown that about 8-12 candidates from the federal list will end up in parliament, with the others coming from the state or regional lists.

Among the 26 candidates are former MPs for the Greens, journalists and people from the culture sector, several important NGO people, such as from Global 2000 or Greenpeace, as well as 2 Pirates, a prominent Social-Media "influencer" with Madeleine "DariaDaria" Alizadeh and Alma Zadic, who left the failing NOW party for the Greens.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on July 05, 2019, 06:12:03 pm
New 24/Research Affairs poll (June 27-July 4, n=1.002, MoE= +/- 3.2%)

It should be noted that this poll also had a sub-sample of states and Vienna has ca. 200 respondents, so it can be looked at, and the results there are fascinating:

31% SP
30% VP

In 2017, the SP was 13% ahead of the VP in the capital ... now a swing of 12% there apparently.

And in case of an actual VP-win in the capital, it would be the biggest embarrassment for the SP in more than 100 years of party history. The SP was once at 70% in Vienna ...

No that's a *swing* of 6%, not 12%.

And a sub-sample of just 200 voters really doesn't mean doodley-squat. Seriously.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 06, 2019, 03:25:00 am
The Austrian Beer Party has announced their candidacy for September 29:

()
(Source: Austrian Beer Party)

Quote
"Our slogan: Tight into the future !"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUkO2jbQg0w


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 06, 2019, 06:42:14 am
Not only the Greens are voting on/finalizing their election lists today, but also NEOS.

Werner Kogler was elected Green frontrunner with 98.6% of delegates today, while Beate Meinl-Reisinger was elected NEOS frontrunner with 96.1%


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: rob in cal on July 06, 2019, 11:04:56 am
  Tender, in the past you've mentioned your concern over the Greens and other left leaning parties over their weakness on the immigration/asylum issues.  Do Kogler and the Greens seem significantly different now?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 06, 2019, 11:38:40 am
 Tender, in the past you've mentioned your concern over the Greens and other left leaning parties over their weakness on the immigration/asylum issues.  Do Kogler and the Greens seem significantly different now?

I would say they have learned their part over the last few years on the bench, now focusing more on the things that have always been associated with the Greens since the 1980s (= fighting climate change, pollution, corruption, being pro-transparency and equality) and they are much less focusing on immigration right now.

In general, the Greens seem to be less snobby/smug today than they were in the past and more appealing again to the Center:



Immigration is also not that important any longer this year, as asylum requests have dropped to below 1.000 per month now and is in line with pre-2015 levels again. A Green government participation would not change that either, as some from the FP (or David B. etc.) are claiming. In fact, there's a chance that the Greens could play a vital role in looking after the VP in a way that they are not getting too megalomaniac, while pushing the things that are needed to make Austria a modern and more progessive country in the future.

Today, they selected IMO a very good mix of people (most of them newcomers) at their convention, to lead the party into the September election:




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 06, 2019, 01:22:20 pm
Not only the Greens are voting on/finalizing their election lists today, but also NEOS.

Werner Kogler was elected Green frontrunner with 98.6% of delegates today, while Beate Meinl-Reisinger was elected NEOS frontrunner with 96.1%

Here are the elected candidates from the federal NEOS list:

()
Source: NEOS/Twitter


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 06, 2019, 01:39:18 pm
SP & FP continue to get negative headlines ...

Turns out that a cartoonist close to the SP recently created one such cartoon portraying Kurz as a young Nazi officer in a Schindlers List re-make.

And Norbert Hofer was exposed recently to have raised the wages of several Transport Ministry officials by a lot during his time as Transport Minister + another report shows the former FP cabinet ministers running costly ads in often obscure and conspiracy theory-spreading far-right blogs and media.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 08, 2019, 11:45:56 am
Tomorrow is the official starting point for the Sept. 29 election and the election calendar starts running:

https://orf.at/stories/3129459

Which means between tomorrow and Sept. 29, a campaign spending limit of 7 million per party will take effect.

After the Ibiza-affair, SP+FP passed stronger penalties in case more money is spent on the campaign (for example, the VP spent almost 14 million during the 2017 campaign and almost had to pay no penalty for it).

Also, signature collection for small parties will start. Even the Greens will have to collect 2.600 signatures to be on the ballot until August 2, but they will not have problems doing so.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 10, 2019, 12:09:37 am
President Van der Bellen:

"For the next government, I will not swear in Kickl again."

https://orf.at/stories/3129666


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 10, 2019, 01:05:00 am
Norbert Hofer:

"The only scenario for us is a renewal of VP-FP after the election."

... and considering how steadily Kurz talks right now about sending the migrants back to Libya immediately, this also seems more likely than VP-Greens or VP-Greens-NEOS.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: rob in cal on July 10, 2019, 01:07:38 am
  Also, VDB didn't rule out approving another FPO member as interior minister, just not Kickl, if I read it correctly.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 10, 2019, 01:09:38 am
 Also, VDB didn't rule out approving another FPO member as interior minister, just not Kickl, if I read it correctly.

Yepp.

VdB said yesterday he's open to swearing in another VP-FP government, if that's the result of negotiations.

Obviously, he would look carefully at the FP people that are presented as cabinet members. That the FP would get the Interior Minister again is highly unlikely though.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 11, 2019, 06:01:28 am
Here is a good summary of recent events, which led to the new election (for those who don't want to read the last 10 pages):

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/can-europe-make-it/austrias-smoking-gun-strache-ibiza-gate-and-saint-sebastian


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 11, 2019, 09:16:17 am
New IFES poll (IFES is the SP's internal pollster):




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 11, 2019, 11:29:38 pm
New poll (Research Affairs for 24, July 5-10):

* the Greens continue to gain (12%)
* 74% say they will "definitely" vote (a good number for this point in time => summer)
* 71% say they have already decided on a party or have a "clear" tendency
* 29% say they have not decided (with 15% saying they have no clue who to vote for)
* 58% say the FP is not fit to govern any longer in a future coalition

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 12, 2019, 12:25:27 am
The FP is really in the dumpster lately, yet is still backed by almost 20% of voters ...

Yesterday, H.C. Strache posted something on Facebook about Jrg Haider's blood samples and how they are now getting destroyed after 10 years in a warehouse and "nobody will get to know the truth about his death" (= a murder by Mossad or some other conspiracy theory). Strache also said that "he himself was lucky to still live and that the attack on him was not fatal."

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000106170544/strache-wuetet-mit-verschwoerungstheorie-zu-joerg-haider-auf-facebook

Gudenus also gave an interview, bringing Ibiza back into the spotlight for the FP.

https://www.vol.at/gudenus-taucht-wieder-aus-der-versenkung-auf/6282025

In Upper Austria, a FP-politician slapped a Green-politician in the face (but then apologized).

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000106178011/blauer-vizebuergermeister-ohrfeigte-gruenen-gemeinderat


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: rob in cal on July 12, 2019, 11:24:18 am
  Tender, if a OVP Green coalition government somehow emerged with Kurz as Chancellor I wonder how the activist base of the Greens would feel about reinstating Kurz who just a few months ago was one of the bad boys in European politics at least from the left wing perspective.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 13, 2019, 01:04:27 am
  Tender, if a OVP Green coalition government somehow emerged with Kurz as Chancellor I wonder how the activist base of the Greens would feel about reinstating Kurz who just a few months ago was one of the bad boys in European politics at least from the left wing perspective.

That's going to be a problem, yes.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 13, 2019, 01:08:34 am
New Profil magazine poll:

37% VP
21% FP
20% SP
11% Greens
  9% NEOS
  1% NOW
  1% Others

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190713_OTS0003/profil-umfrage-kurz-legt-in-kanzlerfrage-deutlich-zu


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 13, 2019, 02:34:49 am
The party "NOW" (Liste Jetzt), which split from the Greens in 2017, will announce during the afternoon if they are running in the Sept. 29 election or not.

Despite their low polling numbers (1%) and their implosion (6/8 of their original MPs left the party), signs are pointing towards another run.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 13, 2019, 08:13:18 am
The party "NOW" (Liste Jetzt), which split from the Greens in 2017, will announce during the afternoon if they are running in the Sept. 29 election or not.

Despite their low polling numbers (1%) and their implosion (6/8 of their original MPs left the party), signs are pointing towards another run.

They will run.

And focus mostly on animal rights & protection this time.

So it seems they are turning into our version of the Partij voor de Dieren ... but I guess this will not be enough, because all other parties have a strong focus on animal rights and protection as well, even the FP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 13, 2019, 12:02:14 pm
Austrian politician arrested after firing gun from balcony

Quote
A politician from the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FP) was arrested on Friday after flying into a rage on the balcony of his apartment and repeatedly firing his gun.

The unnamed 57-year-old fired a total of 29 shots from his pistol during the incident in the town of Bergheim, just 5 kilometers (3 miles) north of Salzburg, according to Austrian media, citing a police report.

()
Source: www.scrapbookpages.com

The incident, in which no one was injured, took place on Friday morning when the man's reportedly drunken behavior prompted neighbors to call the police, Austrian broadcaster RF said.

Police attended the scene, calmed down the politician and then left. Neighbors then made a second complaint when he started shooting. The officers returned with a police tactical unit and a helicopter and the politician was arrested. Police said nobody was hurt in the incident.

A spokesperson for the FP confirmed the arrest and said the man had been suspended from the party.

https://www.dw.com/en/austrian-politician-arrested-after-firing-pistol-from-balcony/a-49575174-0


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: parochial boy on July 13, 2019, 12:39:30 pm
Well if you're going to join a nationalist party, you might as well live up to a few stereotypes while you're at it


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 14, 2019, 06:10:50 am
The Kurz-VP has decided that FP's Kickl will "not be part of a future VP-FP coalition under any circumstances: neither as Interior Minister nor as another Minister".

https://orf.at/stories/3130201

This will be a tough sell for the FP, especially since Kickl is demanding his return to the Interior Ministry after the September election as part of another coalition, to "continue our successful policies on immigration".

Kickl and Vilimsky also said today: "The VP's strategy to divide and split the FP into a (more pragmatic, moderate) Hofer-wing and a (radical) Kickl-wing will not succeed."

Both said that the FP will demand the Interior Ministry again in a future coalition with the VP ("the FP will not be put down by the VP with meaningless cabinet posts ...") and that the VP is already secretly "preparing for VP-Green or VP-Greens-NEOS chaos coalitions."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: tack50 on July 14, 2019, 04:34:50 pm
The Kurz-VP has decided that FP's Kickl will "not be part of a future VP-FP coalition under any circumstances: neither as Interior Minister nor as another Minister".

https://orf.at/stories/3130201

This will be a tough sell for the FP, especially since Kickl is demanding his return to the Interior Ministry after the September election as part of another coalition, to "continue our successful policies on immigration".

Kickl and Vilimsky also said today: "The VP's strategy to divide and split the FP into a (more pragmatic, moderate) Hofer-wing and a (radical) Kickl-wing will not succeed."

Both said that the FP will demand the Interior Ministry again in a future coalition with the VP ("the FP will not be put down by the VP with meaningless cabinet posts ...") and that the VP is already secretly "preparing for VP-Green or VP-Greens-NEOS chaos coalitions."

Your choice at this election: Strong and Stable leadership under Sebastian Kurz or a coalition of chaos led by Pamela Rendi Wagner :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 15, 2019, 03:03:21 am
The Kurz-VP has decided that FP's Kickl will "not be part of a future VP-FP coalition under any circumstances: neither as Interior Minister nor as another Minister".

https://orf.at/stories/3130201

This will be a tough sell for the FP, especially since Kickl is demanding his return to the Interior Ministry after the September election as part of another coalition, to "continue our successful policies on immigration".

Kickl and Vilimsky also said today: "The VP's strategy to divide and split the FP into a (more pragmatic, moderate) Hofer-wing and a (radical) Kickl-wing will not succeed."

Both said that the FP will demand the Interior Ministry again in a future coalition with the VP ("the FP will not be put down by the VP with meaningless cabinet posts ...") and that the VP is already secretly "preparing for VP-Green or VP-Greens-NEOS chaos coalitions."

Your choice at this election: Strong and Stable leadership under Sebastian Kurz or a coalition of chaos led by Pamela Rendi Wagner :P

As things are right now, PRW will not lead anything ... :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 15, 2019, 03:10:38 am
Peter Pilz (JETZT/NOW):

Quote
"We are the only party that is unwilling to jump into bed with Kurz after the election and will function as the only real opposition & control party against the corrupt Kurz and the Nazi-FP."

This is of course correct, because SP/FP/Greens/NEOS at least have not 100% ruled out working with Kurz after the election.

Interesting also that Peter Pilz will appear on their federal list as frontrunner again, but Maria Stern will remain party leader and also appear in the TV debates.

https://orf.at/stories/3130284

Also, new Market poll (July 8-9):

36% VP
21% SP
20% FP
11% Greens
10% NEOS
  1% NOW
  1% Others

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000106274772/umfrage-56-prozent-sehen-regierung-bierlein-als-gut-fuer-oesterreich


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 16, 2019, 01:34:26 pm
It should be noted that the Austrian Pirate Party will run together with the Greens in the election.

Their candidate, Maria Chlastak (center), has been elected 10th on the Green federal list - but they will run a strong preference vote campaign to move her up the list.

If the Greens get 12-15% in the election, about 8-14 candidates will enter parliament via their federal list, the other from state or regional lists.

()
Source: Pirate Party

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190716_OTS0016/piraten-wollen-mehr-vorzugsstimmen-als-werner-kogler


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 17, 2019, 02:15:36 am
Small parties who want to be on the ballot have to collect 2.600 signatures from voters until August 2, but all parties except the Greens ("huge support") call the process "cumbersome":

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5660646/Unterstuetzungserklaerungen_Kleinparteien-kritisieren-muehsamen

With ca. 2 weeks left, things are looking good for the far-leftist "Change" party and the right-wing "XIT" party though. The Communist KP usually also gets onto the ballot.

The pro-children party ARGUS thinks they might convince 3 MPs in parliament to sign their candidacy for them.

The German satire party "The PARTY" is also running, saying they will "get at least 8 million signatures."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 18, 2019, 12:42:55 pm
AdP (Alliance of Patriots, = BZ) wanted Identitarian Movement leader Martin Sellner as their frontrunner, but he declined.

He will still support them on his Instagram page though, so that they can get enough signatures to be on the ballot.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/bzoe-wollte-identitaeren-chef-sellner-als-spitzenkandidaten/400555169


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 19, 2019, 12:57:50 pm
Austria. Summer 2019.

()

"Underwear creates political firestorm between VP and SP."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: President Johnson on July 19, 2019, 01:48:55 pm
Austria. Summer 2019.

()

"Underwear creates political firestorm between VP and SP."

This seems so ridiculous, the media should actually refuse to report on such non-issues. Come on.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: DavidB. on July 20, 2019, 06:57:21 am
AdP (Alliance of Patriots, = BZ) wanted Identitarian Movement leader Martin Sellner as their frontrunner, but he declined.

He will still support them on his Instagram page though, so that they can get enough signatures to be on the ballot.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/bzoe-wollte-identitaeren-chef-sellner-als-spitzenkandidaten/400555169
Isn't BZ supposed to be more moderate than the FP? What happened?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: Sept. 29)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 20, 2019, 07:31:02 am
AdP (Alliance of Patriots, = BZ) wanted Identitarian Movement leader Martin Sellner as their frontrunner, but he declined.

He will still support them on his Instagram page though, so that they can get enough signatures to be on the ballot.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/bzoe-wollte-identitaeren-chef-sellner-als-spitzenkandidaten/400555169
Isn't BZ supposed to be more moderate than the FP? What happened?

Reading their current election platform, it seems they are about where the FP is on the main issues, except on the unconditional basic income for every Austrian citizen, worth 2.500 per month, which they support and the FP of course not. This is pretty leftist on part of the BZ and nobody knows how this could be financed, considering costs of 222 Bio. per year with a GDP of 400 Bio.

But I guess the BZ was just looking for some attention with Sellner, as it is their last attempt to get onto a ballot.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 20, 2019, 07:49:36 am
New 24 poll:



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 20, 2019, 11:35:22 am
This is pretty bad for the SP:

One of their city council members in Styria was sentenced for heavily beating up his 4-year old stepson with bruises and blood all over his face.

After the sentence he remained in office (!), but the SP-mayor asked him to resign (which he now did).

()

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Kindesmisshandlung-Skandal-um-SPOe-Politiker/389267217

Poor boy.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 20, 2019, 01:08:45 pm
The new poll also has an age breakdown which is stunning (young voters do not like VP+FP, while older voters really love Kurz and the VP. The FP is mostly backed by working-age people, who are not studying any longer or who are not retired yet):

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 21, 2019, 01:30:25 pm
A new poll for the 2020 Vienna state election shows that an FP led by Strache would do 2% better (24%) than an FP led by Dominik Nepp (22%). About 8/10 FP-voters want Strache to return as lead candidate for the 2020 election:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: xelas81 on July 21, 2019, 02:52:09 pm
The new poll also has an age breakdown which is stunning (young voters do not like VP+FP, while older voters really love Kurz and the VP. The FP is mostly backed by working-age people, who are not studying any longer or who are not retired yet):

()

Are 70+ voters included part of 60-69 or not shown at all?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 21, 2019, 11:33:40 pm
Are 70+ voters included part of 60-69 or not shown at all?

I think not shown at all and not included. Either they were not polled (which would be strange), or they simply didn't show it on their chart. They also missed the state of Vorarlberg in one of their other charts.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 22, 2019, 11:06:09 am
Own-goal for the VP:

Austria probes ex-Chancellor Kurz's staff over shredding evidence

Quote
(AFP)

Austrian prosecutors are probing a staffer of former chancellor Sebastian Kurz on suspicion of shredding evidence, possibly linked to the scandal that brought down the government in May, media reports and an official said over the weekend.

The probe could hurt Kurz and his conservative People's Party (OeVP), which is so far tipped to come out strongest again in September elections despite the scandal that has since become known as "Ibiza-gate".

(...)

In a new twist, prosecutors are now also investigating a staffer of Kurz's team for shredding a hard disk on May 23, days after the scandal broke and just before a successful no-confidence vote against the chancellor's government.

The staffer, who has not been named by Austrian media, is under suspicion of destroying evidence, according to the Kurier daily on Saturday.

The shredding company informed police after the staffer failed to pay the 76-euro ($85) bill and could not be contacted as he had given a fake name.

Austrian lawmakers, not from Kurz's People's Party (OeVP), have called for a full investigation.

(...)

The OeVP said it was normal to destroy personal data and non-official documents before a change in government, adding the staffer did not have access to any sensitive information.

"This is a completely normal procedure," an OeVP spokesman told AFP on Sunday.

https://www.france24.com/en/20190721-austria-probes-ex-leaders-staff-over-shredding-evidence


Title: Another very important news from Austria
Post by: Tender Branson on July 22, 2019, 11:23:47 am
Juicy Austrian burger ad rankles Salvini: Italian deputy PM not lovin it.

Quote
A burger ad placed in Austria by McDonald's has drawn strong criticism from Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini for associating Italians with the mafia.

When Salvini took his case to Twitter, however, he accidentally confused Austria with Germany.

McDonald's has been running ads in Austria as part of its campaign, "Italian summer." The ads, distributed online and on billboards, comes with a slogan "for real mampfiosi." The term is a play on words combining mafiosi with the colloquial German verb mampfen, or "to munch."

(...)

"So all Italians are mafiosi?" Salvini wrote on Twitter on Sunday, attaching a photo. He added it was "sad" that it came from Germany, confusing Austria with its northern neighbor.

https://www.politico.eu/article/juicy-austrian-burger-ad-rankles-salvini


Title: Re: Salvini is such a crybaby
Post by: Tender Branson on July 22, 2019, 11:25:34 am
I have already tried several of the "Italian Summer" burgers and they are very tasty. Especially the new Chicken Amore.

Salvini should stop being so politically correct. "Munchiosi" is not a racist anti-Italian term.

At least he mixed up Austria and Germany and now everyone thinks the Germans are the "bad guys".


Title: Re: Salvini is such a crybaby
Post by: RoboWop on July 22, 2019, 11:33:46 am
()


Title: Re: Salvini is such a crybaby
Post by: President Johnson on July 22, 2019, 01:29:59 pm
He's doing what all right populists do: Play the victim of an evil establishment. Unfortunately, enough people have difficulty to realize these so-called "men of the people" are fraudulent disrupters who will hardly solve any problem.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: President Johnson on July 22, 2019, 03:12:43 pm
The entire European Youth seems wild about the Green Parties. It's really a hype.


Title: Re: Salvini is such a crybaby
Post by: Dabeav on July 22, 2019, 04:58:57 pm
As an Italian, grow a pair you testa di cazzo.


Title: Re: Salvini is such a crybaby
Post by: RoboWop on July 22, 2019, 06:09:21 pm
Cynical part of me says this is an attempt to expand Lega's support in the South.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 22, 2019, 11:53:11 pm
The entire European Youth seems wild about the Green Parties. It's really a hype.

Yeah, the Greens are in good shape.

PS: they also announced yesterday that they have collected the 2.600 signatures to be on the ballot. They collected even a lot more than that: 11.000 signatures ... and there are still 2 weeks to go.

https://orf.at/stories/3131205


Title: Re: Salvini is such a crybaby
Post by: DavidB. on July 23, 2019, 06:01:27 am
This is not news.


Title: Re: Salvini is such a crybaby
Post by: 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 on July 23, 2019, 10:35:04 am

everything that happens in Austria is news


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 23, 2019, 01:50:11 pm
Own-goal for the VP:

Austria probes ex-Chancellor Kurz's staff over shredding evidence

VP's "Shredder-Gate" (Operation Reisswolf) is getting worse and worse ...

Turns out that Kurz's social media guy not only illegally shreddered one harddisk from the Chancellery, but 5 of them.



And not only that:

The CEO of the shredding company (who called the police and state corruption prosecuction after the shredding process) gave a very interesting interview to the investigating media.

He told journalists the following, after also handing them over CCTV material from their shredding facility: Kurz's social media guy walked into the company and was extremely nervous already and demanded 5 harddisks being destroyed. He wanted to be present during the destruction process. He also wanted the harddisks to be destroyed 3 times in a row. He demanded that the remains are filled into a bag, which he took with him. He used a fake name and fake address (but his correct cell phone number) and didn't pay the 80 of the destruction process. The company CEO said that in 25 years of company history, there has never been a case where a customer wanted to be present during the destruction process and the disks destroyed 3 times ...

Kurz's guy destroyed the harddisks several days after Ibiza-Gate became known and a few days before Kurz was impeached by parliament.

Quote
Dreimal geschreddert

Der Falter beschreibt den Vorgang unter Berufung auf Mitarbeiter der Firma Reisswolf im Detail: Arno M., der im Kanzleramt fr den Social-Media-Auftritt von Kurz zustndig war, gab das Schreddern unter falschem Namen in Auftrag, nmlich "Walter Maisinger" und legte eigens fr die Festplattenvernichtung sogar eine E-Mail-Adresse auf diesen Namen an. Laut den Reisswolf-Mitarbeitern habe er extrem nervs gewirkt. Nach dem Schreddern der Festplatten habe er das, was noch brig blieb, noch einmal durch den Reiwolf laufen lassen, bis am Ende nur noch Staub durchrieselte. Einmal htte gereicht, um die Datentrger nachdrcklich zu vernichten. Danach bestand M. auch noch darauf, den Staubberrest mitzunehmen, heit es.

Da der Kurz-Mitarbeiter die lppische Rechnung von 76,45 Euro trotz mehrerer Mahnungen nicht bezahlte, erstattete die Firma eine Betrugsanzeige. Der Mann war leicht auszuforschen: Er hatte seine richtige Telefonnummer angegeben. Mittlerweile waren aber auch die Mitarbeiter von Reisswolf auf M. alias Maisinger gestoen: Sie identifizierten ihn als jenen Mann, der bei der im Fernsehen bertragenen Abschiedsrede von Sebastian Kurz nach dessen Absetzung durch das Parlament im Springer-Schlssl der Parteiakademie links hinter ihm stand.

Die Betrugsanzeige wanderte ber die Korruptionsstaatsanwaltschaft zur Sonderkommission Ibiza der Polizei: Der Zeitpunkt der Datenvernichtung legte einen Zusammenhang mit der Publikation des Ibiza-Videos nahe. Am 23. 5. wurde M. mit den Festplatten bei der Firma Reisswolf vorstellig. Eine knappe Woche davor, am 17. Mai, hatten Sddeutsche Zeitung und Spiegel das Ibiza-Video mit Heinz-Christian Strache und Johann Gudenus verffentlicht. Vier Tage danach, am 27. Mai, geht der Misstrauensantrag gegen Kurz als Kanzler im Parlament durch.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000106611732/die-reisswolf-affaere-bringt-kurz-unter-druck


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 25, 2019, 10:29:44 am
VP drops by 1% after "Shredder-Gate" (new 24 poll, July 18-24):

36% VP (-1)
22% SP
20% FP (+1)
12% Greens
  7% NEOS
  1% NOW
  2% Others

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190725_OTS0133/oesterreich-oevp-verliert-in-1-umfrage-nach-schredder-affaere


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 25, 2019, 01:12:56 pm
The small, far-left party Wandel (= Change) has enough signatures to be on the ballot in the September elections.

Other small parties have not released numbers so far, but theres still time left until next Friday. Collecting signatures on the street from voters is pretty hard this time (summer vacation and 35 degrees heat). You have to convince these people to go to their municipal office (during office hours) to stamp and sign the petition for such a small party and then mail it back.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 26, 2019, 11:38:29 pm
There's a new IMAS poll for the 2021 Upper Austria state election and it shows the Greens overtaking the SP in this industrial (= steel) state. The SP drops to 4th (!) place there:

()

The last state election there was held in late 2015, at the height of the "refugee" stream into Europe, with 10.000s of people coming each day (many of them illegally).

No surprise that the FP received 30%+ then and still has surprisingly good numbers there, considering the Ibiza-scandal.

After the election, VP+FP entered a coalition there and even after Ibiza decided to continue their work together (even though 1 controversial state government member from the FP had to leave).

https://www.krone.at/1966020


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 27, 2019, 11:10:57 pm
Looks like Austria now also has a member of "our squad":

"Why I hate Austria. I was born here, but nonetheless I will never consider it my homeland."

https://www.vice.com/de/article/mb8z7b/warum-ich-oesterreich-hasse

()

Source: http://de.wikimannia.org/Alexandra_Stanić

Alexandra Stanic, born in Austria to Bosnian immigrants (guest workers) and VICE-journalist, goes on a several page-long rant about how she hates the country.

It's quite astonishing how she says: "Since going to school, I only experienced hate. Now I hate back."

She also says that her guest working parents disagree and they value what Austria did for them. Why is she such a whiner ? She was born here, got a good and free university education without student loans and is now a major journalist at VICE ?

But unlike her radical, hate-driven Squad-comrades in the US (AOC, Omar etc.) - she's at least fully acknowledging her hate for the country and the native Austrians (which she deprecatingly calls the Johannes und Sabines of the country).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: rob in cal on July 28, 2019, 01:27:22 am
  Intresting that such an attitude is coming from a child of Bosnians, i.e.  european immigrants, not someone from a culturally far more different place.  Didn't read in the article which party she prefers, though I'm going to take a lucky guess and say its not FPO or OVP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: urutzizu on July 28, 2019, 02:51:55 pm
  Intresting that such an attitude is coming from a child of Bosnians, i.e.  european immigrants, not someone from a culturally far more different place.  Didn't read in the article which party she prefers, though I'm going to take a lucky guess and say its not FPO or OVP.

It is not so suprising that she as a European immigrant holds these opinions. She is out of step with most eastern European immigrants in the west, in this regard. If anything they are more right wing then the native population and unlike say Turks/Arabs assimilate far better into German/Austrian society. From personal experience Croat, Serb and Polish Germans resent multiculturalism (especially in regards to Islam) to a far greater degree than ethnic Germans and a ton of them vote AFD. Now she of course is a Bosnian muslim so that most likely is the reason for why she feels differently.

Yes, what makes this article even more curious is that while going on about the "racism" of the FP/VP Politicians, she completely overlooks that the Politicians in her beloved home, Bosnian ones, are some of the most race-baiting ones in the entire world. She would of course never go back there however, like many she is in the comfortable position of hating Austria and at the same time loving it's social system its civil rights and its opportunities. If this is "multiculturalism", then it's failing. There needs to be assimilation of those that want to become Austrian, and those that don't should be reminded that they are Guests and should behave themselves or leave.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: parochial boy on July 28, 2019, 03:21:21 pm
I dunno,
Quote
Einer von ihnen heit Wolfi. Ich bin ihm begegnet, als ich 12 Jahre alt war. Er erklrte mir, dass ich niemals richtige sterreicherin sein werde, egal wie gut ich Deutsch spreche

is a pretty powerful thing to say to a child; and it's absolutely the kind of thing that you would internalise when it happens to you.

I mean yes she's reacting the wrong way, but it does provide an insight into the way that secondos react based on the ways that they are made to feel growing up in the only home they've ever had - and Austria (and Germany) seem to be particularly bad at this.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 28, 2019, 03:33:30 pm
I dunno,
Quote
Einer von ihnen heit Wolfi. Ich bin ihm begegnet, als ich 12 Jahre alt war. Er erklrte mir, dass ich niemals richtige sterreicherin sein werde, egal wie gut ich Deutsch spreche

is a pretty powerful thing to say to a child; and it's absolutely the kind of thing that you would internalise when it happens to you.

I mean yes she's reacting the wrong way, but it does provide an insight into the way that secondos react based on the ways that they are made to feel growing up in the only home they've ever had - and Austria (and Germany) seem to be particularly bad at this.

Nobody knows if Wolfi even exists and if he really told her at age 12 that she will never be a real Austrian despite speaking German.

It could also come from her imagination only, considering her general anti-VP/FP positions and her disgust of native Austrians. Hyperbole is a pretty good instrument in her job of journalist after all. Not many adult people tell small children that they are unworthy foreigners right into their faces.

If it happened, its obviously a bad thing.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: urutzizu on July 28, 2019, 04:14:52 pm
I dunno,
Quote
Einer von ihnen heit Wolfi. Ich bin ihm begegnet, als ich 12 Jahre alt war. Er erklrte mir, dass ich niemals richtige sterreicherin sein werde, egal wie gut ich Deutsch spreche

is a pretty powerful thing to say to a child; and it's absolutely the kind of thing that you would internalise when it happens to you.

I mean yes she's reacting the wrong way, but it does provide an insight into the way that secondos react based on the ways that they are made to feel growing up in the only home they've ever had - and Austria (and Germany) seem to be particularly bad at this.

What more are we supposed to do? We offer Asylum, Jobs, Family reunification, all sorts of freedoms, social security systems, hate speech laws- all things immigrants could never imagine in many other countries. And they know this. This is why they choose to come here, of course. And yet they hate Germany.
We are possibly the best country in the world to come to as a immigrant. Yet those societies that are the most multicultural, that have the lowest expectations towards immigrants, tend to be the ones where there are ghettos, race riots, and disloyality, even hatred towards the native population.

I am a second generation immigrant. So are millions of Germans of Polish, Russian, Czech, Croat, Serbian, Italian, Spanish, Greek, Vietnamese, Chinese, Sri Lankan and other countless origins. The wast majority of them agreed to adapt German society, and not ask that German society adapt to us. There has almost never has been problems with these communities. They faced just the same amount of racism, maybe even more (Hoyerswerda, Rostock-Lichterhagen). Yet certain other types of Immigrants seem to level expectations at their Hosts, they seem to have Loyalities that make them have a greater Affinity with a dictator thousands of Kilometers away then with Germany, some of them even show outright hatred for Germany. And if a multicultural society breeds such people, then Multiculturalism has failed.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: parochial boy on July 28, 2019, 04:59:31 pm
Because the Vietnamese are a much smaller community while the much larger community of Turkish Gastarbeiter (and that in itself is a pretty important term in thinking about the long term integration, or lack of it, among Turkish migrants) and their children became the "principal scapegoat" even before Erdogan came to power?

You misunderstand me if you think I am saying it is all the Austria and Germany are entirely at fault. There is the Erdogan factor; and the whole factor, of, well, neoliberalism and the way that it is a driver of communitarianism and social breakdown. But if you want people to integrate then you have to at least allow them to; and that quote is a pretty good example of the kind of thing that is going to put them off from feeling like they can, there is no real argument to be had there.

The key point being that with secondos, Germany (or Austria), is their only home - so telling them to be thankful for the welfare state, or asylum status or whatever isn't a winning argument, as that's their only frame of reference in the first place. Telling them they have a duty to be thankful to the country they were born in is obviously going to be infuriating for a substantial number of them, especially if they have to put up with racism and "you're not really Austrian" as part of day-to-day life growing up. There are easily enough anecdotal examples of this for it to be hard to deny that it is something that happens.

And Germany has its structural issues with regards to integration, enough to make claiming to be the best country in the world for immigrants pretty far fetched. Like the whole debate you have going on around dual-nationality and forcing people to give a part of their identity or else face exclusion. It's totally insane, and totally fails to understand how people relate to their homelands. And well, Germany so regularly seems to have these controversies about insufficiently integrated second-generation migrants, in a way that, say the UK (or even your famously racist southern neighbours, who eventually, begrudgingly figured out how to be an immigration destination) manages to avoid.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: urutzizu on July 28, 2019, 05:17:02 pm

I understand where you are coming from, even though i disagree completely.

I am however genuinely curious: Which country do you think we should model our integration policies on, when it comes to middle eastern immigrants?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: parochial boy on July 28, 2019, 05:29:07 pm

I understand where you are coming from, even though i disagree completely.

I am however genuinely curious: Which country do you think we should model our integration policies on, when it comes to middle eastern immigrants?

Going back 40 years? Lot's differently - not assumed it was temporary migration and they were all going to go home, more flexible naturalisation laws, better anti-discrimination laws and social housing policies...

Now, I don't know, I mean, you could still do all those things - but the rise of satellite TV; the decline of long-term secure work; the increasing tendency towards self-segregation (not just ethnic, but based on social class among other things) makes it much harder to be succesful. If it comes down to it, I would say that until you start to reverse the excesses of economic liberalism and globalisation then you are doomed to create the sort of social alienation that leads to failed integration (and also, you create the push factors that lead to mass migration to Europe). But maybe that is just my own ideological bias creating a neat solution to solve every social problem. who knows?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 29, 2019, 02:29:47 pm
Market poll:

70% of FP-voters want H.C. Strache's return to politics, 18% are opposed.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000106784672/fpoe-waehler-wollen-strache-zurueck

100% of Green-voters are opposed to Strache's return, as are 87% of SP and 80% of VP voters.

In total, 73% of Austrians don't want Strache to return, while 17% want a comeback.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: President Johnson on July 29, 2019, 02:48:39 pm
Market poll:

70% of FP-voters want H.C. Strache's return to politics, 18% are opposed.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000106784672/fpoe-waehler-wollen-strache-zurueck

100% of Green-voters are opposed to Strache's return, as are 87% of SP and 80% of VP voters.

In total, 73% of Austrians don't want Strache to return, while 17% want a comeback.

LOL, they're like Trump supporters. Rally behind the leader even if he committed treason.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 30, 2019, 03:51:17 pm
Kurz in an ORF TV interview today:

Under my watch, Kickl will not become a government member again, no matter for which post. And the FP will not get the Interior Ministry again.

Kurz also said that hes not opposed to another VP-FP government.

Clear words from Kurz, but his demands wont go well with the FP ...

The FP has no other choice though other than to dump Kickl if they want to govern again, because President VdB also said no to another Kickl term.

https://orf.at/stories/3132098


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: President Johnson on July 31, 2019, 01:49:19 pm
Kurz in an ORF TV interview today:

Under my watch, Kickl will not become a government member again, no matter for which post. And the FP will not get the Interior Ministry again.

Kurz also said that hes not opposed to another VP-FP government.

Clear words from Kurz, but his demands wont go well with the FP ...

The FP has no other choice though other than to dump Kickl if they want to govern again, because President VdB also said no to another Kickl term.

https://orf.at/stories/3132098

He hasn't learned a thing. Hopefully he won't win this election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 31, 2019, 01:59:28 pm
Kurz in an ORF TV interview today:

Under my watch, Kickl will not become a government member again, no matter for which post. And the FP will not get the Interior Ministry again.

Kurz also said that hes not opposed to another VP-FP government.

Clear words from Kurz, but his demands wont go well with the FP ...

The FP has no other choice though other than to dump Kickl if they want to govern again, because President VdB also said no to another Kickl term.

https://orf.at/stories/3132098

He hasn't learned a thing. Hopefully he won't win this election.

He will, because neither SP nor FP are in any position to challenge the VP for 1st place in September. Still, there could be a certain tightening of the race - and if it happens it will ironically help the FP and not the SP: the SP is kept down by the rise of the Greens, who could rise to 11-15% in the election, which would be a major comeback for them.

The FP (even political experts say so right now) could be underestimated. Norbert Hofer could play the moderate "statesman" card during the debates and Kickl could keep the hardline voters in the FP camp.

So, if "Old Shredderhand" Kurz continues to defend his harddisk shredding debacle over the next weeks and continues to fight with the SP, the FP could also make a surprise comeback towards 25%.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 31, 2019, 02:13:04 pm
Austrians are marrying more and more, while divorcing less:

In 2018, some 46.500 marriages were registered (up from 35.200 in 2008).

There were 16.300 divorces, compared with 19.700 in 2008.

()

https://oesterreich.orf.at/stories/3006788

Fairly interesting and in the face of anti-gay people, who often say that with the legalisation of gay marriage hetero marriage rates will fall and divorces will be up ... total bullsh*t of course.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 31, 2019, 04:01:32 pm
The small, far-left party Wandel (= Change) has enough signatures to be on the ballot in the September elections.

Other small parties have not released numbers so far, but theres still time left until next Friday. Collecting signatures on the street from voters is pretty hard this time (summer vacation and 35 degrees heat). You have to convince these people to go to their municipal office (during office hours) to stamp and sign the petition for such a small party and then mail it back.

If anyone's interested, here is their platform in English:

https://www.derwandel.at/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Manifesto_Wandel.pdf


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: bigic on July 31, 2019, 05:03:28 pm
Wandel is one of the parties affiliated with Yanis Varoufakis's DiEM25.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 01, 2019, 11:01:19 am
KP+ is the 8th party that will be on the Sept. 29 ballot in all 9 states.

They join the 5 parliamentary parties (who needed no 2.600 signatures), the Greens and the party "Change".

At least 2 other small parties (GILT and the Socialist Left Party) will appear in some states only.

We'll know tomorrow after 5pm if other parties have qualified, such as XIT or the Beer Party.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 01, 2019, 02:20:19 pm
The satire project "Austrian Beer Party" by hipster-punk-rocker Dr. Marco Pogo has made at least the Vienna ballot for the federal election.

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Source: Beer Party Instagram page


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 01, 2019, 11:23:08 pm
New 24 poll:

* VP, FP, SP all stable
* VP-FP by far the most favoured coalition
* 8/10 Austrians do not want Kickl again, but 8/10 FP-voters

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: rob in cal on August 02, 2019, 12:35:24 am
  Assuming the OVP would stick to its insistence on the interior ministry in a FPO OVP coalition, is there a member from the OVP that the FPO would support, someone fairly close to FPO desired policies?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 02, 2019, 12:25:41 pm
 Assuming the OVP would stick to its insistence on the interior ministry in a FPO OVP coalition, is there a member from the OVP that the FPO would support, someone fairly close to FPO desired policies?

I think the VP will indeed stick to their insistence on the interior ministry, which could be a major road-block after the election.

Norbert Hofer tried to downplay the situation today by saying "now it's the election campaign, and after the election most things are going to be different."

But I guess they will not be different, because the VP has seen their mistake in handing the Interior Ministry to the FP, losing power and credibility abroad - while Kickl used the Ministry to profile himself.

I can't say if there is a certain person within the VP that would be acceptable to the FP as Interior Minister (there certainly are qualified people), but this is not the main point: after Ibiza, 2 people proposed as interim, technocratic Interior Ministers were opposed by the FP and were taken out of consideration because the FP thought they were not really independent technocrats, but close to the VP (among them the police chief of Upper Austria).

So, the FP will always insist that they should get the Interior Ministry and oppose any VP-person. But if the FP wants to govern again, they will ultimately have to back down because Kurz and President Van der Bellen are against the FP here.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 02, 2019, 12:33:37 pm
5pm was the deadline for parties to submit enough signatures for the Sept. 29 election.

As per the Interior Ministry, the following parties have qualified for the ballot:

Austria-wide

Liste Sebastian Kurz die neue Volkspartei (VP)
Sozialdemokratische Partei sterreichs (SP)
Freiheitliche Partei sterreichs (FP)
NEOS Das Neue sterreich (NEOS)
JETZT Liste Pilz (JETZT)
Alternative Listen, KP Plus, Linke und Unabhngige (KP)
Die Grnen Die Grne Alternative (GRNE)
Wandel Aufbruch in ein gemeinwohlorientiertes Morgen mit guter Arbeit, leistbarem Wohnen und radikaler Klimapolitik. Es gibt viel zu gewinnen. (WANDL)

In Burgenland only:

Christliche Partei sterreichs (CP)

In Carinthia only:

Allianz der Patrioten (BZ)

In Upper Austria only:

Sozialistische LinksPartei (SLP)

In Tyrol & Vorarlberg:

Jede Stimme GILT: Brgerparlamente & Expertenregierung (GILT)

In Vienna only:

BP Bierpartei sterreich (BIER)

https://www.bmi.gv.at/news.aspx?id=4A71546766513654314D733D

XIT reported at noon to several media outlets that they have collected enough signatures for Vienna, Lower- and Upper Austria - but the Interior Ministry said that after a quick count of submitted signatures, they are not on the ballot anywhere. The signatures that were submitted by all parties will be verified in the next days and then a final list of qualified parties will be announced. It is possible that the quick count of XIT's signatures will be overruled, but this is very unlikely.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 02, 2019, 02:05:04 pm
Austrian states ranked by unemployment rate in June (using the internationally comparable ILO/Eurostat method):

2.1% Tyrol
2.5% Salzburg (my home state)
3.0% Upper Austria
3.3% Vorarlberg
3.6% Styria
4.5% Burgenland
4.6% Lower Austria
4.7% Carinthia
7.6% Vienna

4.5% Austria (-0.4% compared with June 2018)

Link (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10014320/3-31072019-CP-EN.pdf/e9e3b972-1dd4-422d-84cf-c299b6312d45)

Here are the June rates for the US states, ranging from 2.1% in VT to 6.4% in AK:

https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 03, 2019, 04:13:19 am
XIT reported at noon to several media outlets that they have collected enough signatures for Vienna, Lower- and Upper Austria - but the Interior Ministry said that after a quick count of submitted signatures, they are not on the ballot anywhere. The signatures that were submitted by all parties will be verified in the next days and then a final list of qualified parties will be announced. It is possible that the quick count of XIT's signatures will be overruled, but this is very unlikely.

Here's more on XIT's (probably) failed candidacy:

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190803_OTS0004/oexit-plattform-reichte-wahlvorschlag-in-drei-bundeslaendern-ein

Inge Rauscher, their leader, said that they submitted 462 signatures for Vienna in paper form to the Interior Ministry yesterday (500 are needed for Vienna) and 429 and 308 for Lower- and Upper Austria respectively. 500 are needed for Lower- and 400 for Upper Austria.

Rauscher argued that much more than 462 people supported XIT's petition drive: 545 in Vienna, according to info they got from the municipal office there ... and because of that, they should have a right to be on the ballot in these 3 states.

But that's not so easy: More people might have signed their petition, but did not mail it back to the party so that they can hand it in. And that's what counts. The physical paper petitions are the only thing that matter to the Interior Ministry for accepting a candidacy.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 03, 2019, 07:51:00 am
If you scroll down the Austrian Greens Twitter feed, you will only find 1 tweet mentioning immigration or asylum these days (out of 100 tweets):

https://twitter.com/Gruene_Austria/with_replies

So much to David B.'s argument that the Greens have not learned a thing over the past years and are still 100% immigration enablers.

In that case (= if they start talking too much again about being pro-immigration), they know that the Austrian voters will eradicate them again at the polls, like in 2017 ... :)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: urutzizu on August 03, 2019, 09:45:26 am
David generally, correct me if i am wrong, seems to have a certain universalist outlook when it comes to Green parties. I think he takes Groenlinks in the Netherlands and assumes that other Green parties in Europe are similar. They are not. This universalist Approach might work with Greens in like Berlin, Hamburg or London. But Greens in Southern Germany/Austria are completely different, both in their policy and in the people who vote for them. Take the Idea of Humanitary Visas for example, which Groenlinks supports. The Greens here would never support that. There is a reason why here, one of the most conservative states in Germany, the Greens get 30%+:  Conservation of the Country and Conservation of the Environment do not exclude each other here.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 03, 2019, 12:31:09 pm
David generally, correct me if i am wrong, seems to have a certain universalist outlook when it comes to Green parties. I think he takes Groenlinks in the Netherlands and assumes that other Green parties in Europe are similar. They are not. This universalist Approach might work with Greens in like Berlin, Hamburg or London. But Greens in Southern Germany/Austria are completely different, both in their policy and in the people who vote for them. Take the Idea of Humanitary Visas for example, which Groenlinks supports. The Greens here would never support that. There is a reason why here, one of the most conservative states in Germany, the Greens get 30%+:  Conservation of the Country and Conservation of the Environment do not exclude each other here.

Correct.

I would like to see more Greens like myself around: not the regular types of urban Green voters, who are extremely naive when it comes to immigration - but rather have a good dose of scepticism and realism and sense of law and order mentality. Some immigration is definitely OK, but certainly not large-scale immigration of culture-hostile areas such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and elsewhere. What the Greens instead need to focus on are their bread-and-butter-topics of climate change, pollution prevention, fighting and exposing corruption, combating the far-right, (pay) equality for women, LGBT topics, affordable housing etc.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 03, 2019, 12:44:19 pm
I have recently started reading the book

"The Pinzgau under the Swastika: Dictatorship in the Province."

()
Source: Otto Mller Verlag

A very good book.

The "Pinzgau" is the district I am living in and it was one of the regions in the German Reich + later annexed Austria with the earliest and most ardent following of the NSDAP (Nazis).

As early as 1925-1930 (and 8-15 years before Austria was annexed by Nazi-Germany), the Zell am See region had an above-average following of the NSDAP. Later on, the district had the 2nd-highest share of SS-volunteers (after some areas down in Carinthia).

()
2 children with the Nazi-salute on top of the Kitzsteinhorn glacier in Kaprun

Source: Pinzgauer Bezirksarchiv, Zell am See

The author explains it this way: Zell am See has always been a tourist and recreation area, especially for German and Bavarian tourists (and now for Arabs). Of course, back in the 1920 and 1930s, this led to a really good connection with the Nazis in Germany, because after the failed Munich putsch a lot of important Nazis went to hide in and around Zell am See and spread their message. And in recent years, even David Duke had an apartment here.

The book also features a lot of historical election results of the district and its towns from the 1920s and 1930s (before elections were banned altogether under the Nazis).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 03, 2019, 01:08:41 pm
VP-leader Sebastian Kurz has met with Werner Kogler (Greens) recently for a secret private meeting, which led to speculations about a coalition between them.

Later, Kurz said that he also met Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SP) and will meet other party leaders/representatives as well for summer talks.

Kurz wants to keep his options open for after the election ...

()
Source: oe24.at


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Cranberry on August 03, 2019, 01:56:47 pm
The book also features a lot of historical election results of the district and its towns from the 1920s and 1930s (before elections were banned altogether under the Nazis).

Didn't need Nazis for that, our very own fascists were perfectly capable of that themselves.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 03, 2019, 04:12:29 pm
The book also features a lot of historical election results of the district and its towns from the 1920s and 1930s (before elections were banned altogether under the Nazis).

Didn't need Nazis for that, our very own fascists were perfectly capable of that themselves.

Yeah, of course. The elections were banned right after 1932 (which were the last ones) under the Austrofascist regime and continued by the Nazis (excl. the rigged 1938 referendum).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 03, 2019, 04:27:10 pm
I did some calculations on the introduction of non-citizen voting rights for federal elections:

Currently, only citizens aged 16+ are able to vote in parliamentary elections.

Thats roughly 6.4 million people for September 29.

But there are an additional 1.5 million foreigners living here, of which 1.2 million are older than 16.

In total, 7.6 out of 8.9 million people could vote in such a scenario.

How would the results for parties be affected ?

Actually not by much:

Assuming a turnout of 80% for Austrian citizens and 60-70% for non-citizens, wed get 5.9 million votes cast out of 7.6 million (overall turnout would obviously drop by some 3% if non-citizens are allowed to vote, as they are not as politically involved in politics).

Assuming further that the SP gets 22% and the Greens get 12% in the regular election in September and a hypothetical high 40% and 30% respectively among non-citizen voters, then the SP would end up with 24-25% and the Greens with 14-15% combined.

So, the inclusion of non-citizen voters would probably just add 2-3% at best for both parties under a very favorable scenario ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 04, 2019, 11:03:00 am
I also wonder how the 1.2 million non-citizens in Austria would vote in such a scenario ...

Who are they ?

31% are from Eastern EUrope (since 2004)
22% are from non-EU Eastern Europe and the Balkans
20% are from Western Europe (former EU-14 + EFTA)
13% are from Asia
  8% are from Turkey
  3% are from Africa
  1% are from North America
  1% are from South America
  1% are from Oceania or are stateless

Immigrants from Eastern Europe + Balkans will have solid support for VP and SP and also the FP, while Greens and NEOS would do badly.

People from Western Europe would likely back VP, Greens and NEOS above average and SP below average and the FP far below average.

People from Asia, Turkey, Africa and America would likely have a strong SP+Green tendency.

Altogether, I would say that immigrants would vote something like:

30% VP
30% SP
15% FP
15% Greens
  7% NEOS
  3% Others

So, the overall results would not change by much, SP+Greens would probably gain just a point each.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 04, 2019, 01:42:59 pm
Austrians living abroad can register until Thursday to vote in the federal election.

About 584.000 Austrians are living abroad (mostly in Germany and the rest of Europe and the US), but only 60.000 of them will register to vote.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: rob in cal on August 05, 2019, 01:12:40 am
   it wasn't until after the Innsbruck municipal elections of spring 1933 that the Dollfuss regime banned elections, when it was clear that the Austrian Nazis were on a huge upswing due to Hitlers takeover in Germany.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DavidB. on August 05, 2019, 02:10:03 am
If you scroll down the Austrian Greens Twitter feed, you will only find 1 tweet mentioning immigration or asylum these days (out of 100 tweets):

https://twitter.com/Gruene_Austria/with_replies

So much to David B.'s argument that the Greens have not learned a thing over the past years and are still 100% immigration enablers.

In that case (= if they start talking too much again about being pro-immigration), they know that the Austrian voters will eradicate them again at the polls, like in 2017 ... :)
They are smart enough not to tweet about it but wouldn't act any differently if another group of thousands of refugees arrived at the border in Nickelsdorf. I'd rather see them talk about it and be honest about it.

David generally, correct me if i am wrong, seems to have a certain universalist outlook when it comes to Green parties. I think he takes Groenlinks in the Netherlands and assumes that other Green parties in Europe are similar. They are not. This universalist Approach might work with Greens in like Berlin, Hamburg or London. But Greens in Southern Germany/Austria are completely different, both in their policy and in the people who vote for them. Take the Idea of Humanitary Visas for example, which Groenlinks supports. The Greens here would never support that. There is a reason why here, one of the most conservative states in Germany, the Greens get 30%+:  Conservation of the Country and Conservation of the Environment do not exclude each other here.
I obviously understand not all Greens are the same, and the idea of conservation of the country and conservation of the environment is something I heartily endorse. The problem is that, for all of the difference in terms of focus by the Greens in, say, BaW, they still vote the same way federally. They still share a party with Claudia "Deutschland, du mieses Stck Scheie" Roth, a party that votes for more immigration and made opposition to an "Obergrenze" a priority at the negotiating table for Jamaika. It's the exact same thing Social Democrats have often done: de-emphasize the issue, perhaps not even agree with the party line, but, when push comes to shove, vote for the policies destroying our countries. And so I am thoroughly unimpressed by the Greens' focus on de-emphasizing the issue, which is merely strategic and not sincere at all. Ultimately, their commitment to mass immigration (which they will always prioritize over the environment) says it all.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: rob in cal on August 05, 2019, 11:11:11 am
  I don't want to derail this topic into a discussion about the German Greens, but that horribly anti-German statement by Roth is really ugly. What was the context of it, did she ever apologize, and did the German Greens ever repudiate it and punish her for saying it?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on August 05, 2019, 12:03:10 pm
She never said that.

https://www.tagesschau.de/faktenfinder/inland/kampagnen-roth-101.html
https://www.bz-berlin.de/deutschland/ich-muss-mich-nicht-distanzieren-nur-weil-die-afd-das-will


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: urutzizu on August 05, 2019, 12:36:35 pm
She never said that.

https://www.tagesschau.de/faktenfinder/inland/kampagnen-roth-101.html
https://www.bz-berlin.de/deutschland/ich-muss-mich-nicht-distanzieren-nur-weil-die-afd-das-will

Indeed. She did however march with people who did and often do use such slogans. But she said she disapproved of said slogans (though not of the march or the people there), and she is of course not guilty simply by association. She has gotten into alot of similar controversies in the past, like when she did not allow for a minute of silence for Susana Feldmann (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=323702.msg6869834#msg6869834), a Jewish girl raped and murdered by a asylum seeker. She is just generally a hate figure for the right, but i dont think she deserves it, although i dislike her politics strongly. She is basically just an ultra-SJW, but not necessarily a germany-hater or crypto-islamist as is often insinuated by the AFD.



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 05, 2019, 02:50:00 pm
New poll for Styria: FP gaining compared with 2015. Styria votes early next year.



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: rob in cal on August 05, 2019, 05:53:22 pm
 A demographic question for Tender. Its been discussed by some, Austrians and even some in Orbans government, that there is either a majority, or close to one, of moslems, or children from moslem backgrounds in Vienna's public schools.  If Turks are only 8% of Austria's non-citizens and then adding Bosnian Moslems, plus potential Moslems from elsewhere, plus children of Austrian citizens who are Moslems etc, how does that get to about 50% in Vienna? I would think then that Vienna would likely be much much higher than even other Austrian cities like Graz, Linz etc?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 05, 2019, 11:09:50 pm
A demographic question for Tender. Its been discussed by some, Austrians and even some in Orbans government, that there is either a majority, or close to one, of moslems, or children from moslem backgrounds in Vienna's public schools.  If Turks are only 8% of Austria's non-citizens and then adding Bosnian Moslems, plus potential Moslems from elsewhere, plus children of Austrian citizens who are Moslems etc, how does that get to about 50% in Vienna? I would think then that Vienna would likely be much much higher than even other Austrian cities like Graz, Linz etc?

The last study was for 2016/17 for Vienna's elementary schools:

31% Roman-Catholic
28% Muslim
17% Other Christian (mostly Orthodox)
  1% Others (Jewish etc.)
23% No Religion

They are not a "majority", but about to overtake Catholic students - which is understandable considering all the in-migration of foreigners to Vienna and outmigration of Austrian parents to the suburbs. Also, Muslim families have much higher fertility, which is also driving their share up. Same thing that can be seen in other countries.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DavidB. on August 06, 2019, 05:57:08 am
They are not a "majority", but about to overtake Catholic students - which is understandable considering all the in-migration of foreigners to Vienna and outmigration of Austrian parents to the suburbs.
Aren't quite some of the suburbs actually part of Vienna, i.e. part of this total figure as well? I assume the main mostly lower-middle class suburban area outside the Vienna region is the corridor stretching all the way to Wiener Neustadt?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Krago on August 06, 2019, 08:57:07 am
5pm was the deadline for parties to submit enough signatures for the Sept. 29 election.

As per the Interior Ministry, the following parties have qualified for the ballot:

In Carinthia only:

Allianz der Patrioten (BZ)


Dumb question:  How does that party name get that abbreviation?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DavidB. on August 06, 2019, 09:04:03 am
Dumb question:  How does that party name get that abbreviation?
They used to be Bndnis Zukunft sterreich but that's an incredibly vague name (doesn't tell you anything about their views), so they presumably decided to go with something clearer while maintaining the abbreviation under which they were already known.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 06, 2019, 11:15:53 am
They are not a "majority", but about to overtake Catholic students - which is understandable considering all the in-migration of foreigners to Vienna and outmigration of Austrian parents to the suburbs.
Aren't quite some of the suburbs actually part of Vienna, i.e. part of this total figure as well? I assume the main mostly lower-middle class suburban area outside the Vienna region is the corridor stretching all the way to Wiener Neustadt?

Vienna (the city) has 1.9 million people and the numbers above are based on that whole city.

Vienna's suburbs are stretched around 5.000 km of land mostly to the South and North-West (and more recently, to the North-East) and there are an additional 800.000 people living there, for 2.7 million in the metro-area.

Both Vienna + suburbs are growing fast, but Vienna almost exclusively because of foreigners.

Everything that is light-red in the 1st and yellow in the 2nd picture can be seen as Vienna's suburbs.

()

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 06, 2019, 11:27:58 am
A demographic question for Tender. Its been discussed by some, Austrians and even some in Orbans government, that there is either a majority, or close to one, of moslems, or children from moslem backgrounds in Vienna's public schools.  If Turks are only 8% of Austria's non-citizens and then adding Bosnian Moslems, plus potential Moslems from elsewhere, plus children of Austrian citizens who are Moslems etc, how does that get to about 50% in Vienna? I would think then that Vienna would likely be much much higher than even other Austrian cities like Graz, Linz etc?

I should also note that religious statistics in Austria are very dubious, because religion was last asked in a traditional Census in 2001.

After 2001, population census taking was changed to a register-based system - relying on the Central Population Register (ZMR).

Every person in Austria with a main residence has to register there and while there is a field for religion, it is not mandatory to fill it out. You can also write in: None or Unknown.

Therefore, no detailed religious statistics exist since 2001 with the number of None or Unknown at almost 25% of the population now. That doesn't mean that these people are atheists, but mostly people like me: people who quit the Catholic Church or others, or parents who are not registering their kids with a certain religion.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 06, 2019, 11:47:37 am
So, with the federal election campaign being very boring right now (the parties are still working on their campaigns, which will start in a few weeks), the FP has finally unveiled their long-awaited "party history report":

()

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107124652/experten-zerreissen-fp-historikerpapier

Such a party history report is to examine the FP's history since WW2 and was intended to highlight connections of the party to the NSDAP (which the report acknowledges), of major politicians to right-wing extremism etc. etc.

VP and SP have already done so years ago, creating their own party history reports (which unveiled some dark connections during WW2 and afterwards).

Experts say the 1000+ page report (of which only a 32-page summary was released yesterday) is "problematic, relativising and trivialising the FP's history and Nazi-past and it is full of historical gaps".

The FP says that historical experts, professors and scientists have put a lot of work into the report and praise it. Norbert Hofer also said that they will send the preliminary report to a history professor in Israel for fact-checking and then release the full report to the public.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 06, 2019, 12:16:27 pm
The Kurz-VP wants to enshrine an Austrian's right to pay by cash in the constitution:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107113579/oevp-will-im-wahlkampf-ueber-bargeld-reden


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Omega21 on August 07, 2019, 07:44:02 am
The Kurz-VP wants to enshrine an Austrian's right to pay by cash in the constitution:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107113579/oevp-will-im-wahlkampf-ueber-bargeld-reden

What a great way to get some votes for free lol...

Though I support the idea in any case.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 07, 2019, 01:04:41 pm
The Kurz-VP wants to enshrine an Austrian's right to pay by cash in the constitution:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107113579/oevp-will-im-wahlkampf-ueber-bargeld-reden

What a great way to get some votes for free lol...

Though I support the idea in any case.

Makes sense for the VP from a populist perspective, because 95% of Austrians like to pay with cash and don't want it banned and it could attract additional FP-voters who are critical of the EU's plans to get rid of cash money in the future, so that governments and banks eventually have full control over the private wealth of people (the 500 banknotes were already banned recently).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 07, 2019, 01:08:32 pm
I have now included a poll on top where you can vote for a party in the Sept. 29 election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 07, 2019, 01:33:29 pm


How true ...

(The leftist small party Change, which managed to be on the ballot nationwide, tweets that they were not invited by the public ORF to any of their 20-30 TV debates and duels - while the ORF allowed the VP to send Karoline Edtstadler as a stand-in for Kurz during his debates. And Edtstadler was recently elected to the EU parliament, so she isn't even running in this election !)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 07, 2019, 01:49:21 pm
There are no poster campaigns yet by the parties (it's still summer vacation time and voters don't want to be annoyed by them just yet), but the FP is out with social media ads like this already which show what their strategy might be:

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Quote
"Now more than ever: They are against HIM, because he is (working) for YOU."

The FP will use Kickl to keep the rightwing base happy and use Hofer as the moderate voice to attract more centrist voters.

This strategy might actually work and the FP could do much better than expected ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DavidB. on August 07, 2019, 02:02:28 pm
Since I see Tender put up a poll: the FP could do anything and I'd still vote for them, but I'd be disappointed if they let themselves be played by the VP too easily after Kurz' disgusting opportunistic move. Perhaps they should let Kurz try and form a coalition with NEOS and the Greens first, with the reasoning that since he ditched the FP he should first try another option, and then let him come back to the FP if negotiations break down - then the FP will have the upper hand (and if not, Kurz' policies will be so left-wing that the FP will be at 30%> within a year). A coalition without Kickl is only acceptable if someone whose policies would be just as strong replaces him. The Burgenland FP's idea of SP-FP is also fine with me, but the numbers really won't be there.

I do think Kurz' move only emboldened the more right-wing segment among the FP. My uncle was deeply disappointed with the party when they cracked down on the IB and thought of staying home in the next election, but was as enthusiastic as ever to come out and vote FP in the EP election after Kurz made the coalition collapse.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 07, 2019, 02:21:38 pm
Since I see Tender put up a poll: the FP could do anything and I'd still vote for them, but I'd be disappointed if they let themselves be played by the VP too easily after Kurz' disgusting opportunistic move. Perhaps they should let Kurz try and form a coalition with NEOS and the Greens first, with the reasoning that since he ditched the FP he should first try another option, and then let him come back to the FP if negotiations break down - then the FP will have the upper hand (and if not, Kurz' policies will be so left-wing that the FP will be at 30%> within a year). A coalition without Kickl is only acceptable if someone whose policies would be just as strong replaces him. The Burgenland FP's idea of SP-FP is also fine with me, but the numbers really won't be there.

I do think Kurz' move only emboldened the more right-wing segment among the FP. My uncle was deeply disappointed with the party when they cracked down on the IB and thought of staying home in the next election, but was as enthusiastic as ever to come out and vote FP in the EP election after Kurz made the coalition collapse.

Your uncle might be a good indicator of the FP's base and its mood.

Even though the campaign is very boring right now and the polls stable, I still expect some movement coming: the debates and poster campaigns will change some minds and there are still 30-40% undecided.

And despite Ibiza, there is still a lot going for VP-FP: before the scandal, state election results showed that Austrians really loved that coalition and together got 60-80% in more rural areas, with the SP collapsing even in urban areas.

It's likely that Ibiza will fade by late September and voters will mostly forget about it. That would be good news for the FP, especially if they find a good poster campaign as well and Norbert Hofer does well in the debates. And all of this while Strache keeps on strolling his baby down the road, while staying out of the news. They could get to 25%, which would be almost no damage compared with 2017.

And also not forget that the economy is still going OK here, despite a massive slowdown in nearby Germany and Italy already, our biggest trading partners. VP and FP are associated with the good economy and the balanced budget and voters might take this much more into consideration than the Ibiza scandal.

Talk about possible coalitions is too early now, but I would prefer VP-Greens-NEOS - assuming that climate change is tackled on the back of a strong Green election result, but the VP keeps the Green demands on immigration down in a coalition contract.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Coldstream on August 08, 2019, 03:58:26 am
According to Wikipedia the Greens now have 1 member of the National Council, I presume this is a defection from another party (Pilz List?) does anyone know the specifics?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 08, 2019, 10:12:55 am
According to Wikipedia the Greens now have 1 member of the National Council, I presume this is a defection from another party (Pilz List?) does anyone know the specifics?

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/liste-jetzt-aufloesung-alma-zadic-gruenen-pilz-10847387

Alma Zadic, a former member of the Pilz List, joined the Greens and will run as 5th on their list (which means she will be elected again).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 08, 2019, 10:44:14 am
These are the ballots for the election (Carinthia is shown here):

()

In the blank spaces below the parties, you can insert candidate preference votes for the federal level, the state and the electoral district level.

The candidates for the 3 levels for each party are listed on the BMI website or in the polling station and postal voters get a small booklet with all the names in it.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 08, 2019, 12:45:14 pm
Like the self-destructing SPD in Germany, the SP here is once again preoccupied with itself:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107186915/streit-in-tiroler-spoe-um-dornauer-bild-auf-parteizentrale

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5671058/Tirols-SPOeChef-Dornauer-ueberklebt-rote-Rose-mit-seinem-Konterfei

https://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/15929583/dornauer-solo-geht-tiroler-sp-spitzen-jetzt-zu-weit

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Dornauer-Massive-Kritik-aus-den-eigenen-Reihen/392041977

You cannot win an election this way.

But you cannot talk about "winning" anyway any longer, with the SP at 20% and dropping.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 08, 2019, 03:13:38 pm
New 24 poll:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 09, 2019, 09:49:30 am
It seems Norbert Hofer's page is already testing some poster campaign motives:

https://www.facebook.com/pg/norberthofer2019/photos


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 09, 2019, 01:25:16 pm
Strache with the 1st major TV interview after the Ibiza scandal ... for Russia Today:




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 10, 2019, 12:45:34 am
Another sign that this early election has caught everyone by surprise:

* Postal ballots are starting to be sent to voters in 2-3 weeks already
* Parties have no election platforms yet
* Parties have no campaign posters ready yet
* no mega-events like this 2017 Orwellian sect-event by the Kurz-VP below are planned

()

()

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 10, 2019, 01:07:52 am
Profil poll:

"Did you already decide on which party to vote for on Sept. 29 ?"

45% I have already decided to vote for a party
21% I have a tendency for a party
27% No decision yet
  7% Don't know/No opinion

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190810_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-fast-zwei-drittel-der-oesterreicher-haben-wahlentscheidung-bereits-getroffen 


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 10, 2019, 11:08:40 pm
The FP has been banned by court order to use songs of the Austrian national hero and music legend "Falco" (he once had a #1 in the US Billboard charts) at their campaign events:

()

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/5672174/Helden-von-heute_FPOe-darf-nicht-mehr-Falco-spielen

"Falco", while he was still alive, was always a left-winger and critical of the FP & Haider.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnHEX0GSN28


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 11, 2019, 02:06:08 am
Via Google Translate:

Quote
For Hofer, only VP-FP or opposition conceivable

For FP's leading candidate Norbert Hofer, only co-operation with the VP is an option after the Nationalrat election.

"Either we make a coalition with the VP, continue the cooperation, or we are an opposition party," said the designated FP chairman in the APA interview. As a demand for a coalition agreement, he called the rapid implementation of binding referendums.

The VP advised Hofer not to think of a government constellation other than the VP-FP ended after the Ibiza scandal: "After many in Austria want the coalition to continue, one would probably not understand why this way is not possible. "And if the FP would go into opposition, probably the following state elections" would not be so bad for us, "said Hofer in the direction of VP.

The VP and Kickl

Hofer's statement that former Minister of Interior Herbert Kickl will not again be entrusted with this department leaves him cold: "I think that's a kind of campaign strategy. It was not all run in the election campaign, as planned by the VP, in the context of much-cited message control. "And therefore make the VP just" another topic ".

I just do not want to get into it. "First, the voters at the word, then only there was the decision, which coalition talks are conducted." He said, I do not have any preliminary talks with the VP. "I think that is really meaningless in the phase of an election campaign." As an election target Hofer called the prevention of a majority of VP and Greens and an election result of "20 percent plus" - "a big plus," said Hofer.

For more direct democracy

The Hofer wants to win the voters not only with blue core issues such as strict migration and security policy, but also with the theme of direct democracy. Here he wants to achieve more than in the last government program. This provided that people's petitions from 900,000 signatures from 2022 must be subjected to a binding referendum. In the 2017 election campaign, the VP itself spoke of a hurdle of just 600,000 signatures (around ten percent of eligible voters), Hofer noted. For him that is now "the absolute upper limit".

In addition, he wants a faster implementation: "The goal is that we implement not in the first phase of the legislature, but in the first phase, this possibility of direct democratic decisions."

https://orf.at/#/stories/3133338


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 11, 2019, 10:24:44 am
New Market poll for the "Standard":

35% VP
22% SP
20% FP
10% Greens
10% NEOS
  1% NOW
  2% Others

The 800 Austrians that were polled were also asked to position themselves on a scale of 0-100 (left to right).

The average was 47.98, which means Austrians position themselves to the center with a small tendency to the Left. It was 49.77 before the 2017 election.

Men: 50.14
Women: 45.93

FP voters position themselves at 62.98, but all voters say the FP is at 81.20

VP voters: 53.24 (self), 61.35 (all other voters)

NEOS voters: 44.35 (self), "roughly the same" (all other voters)

SP voters: 37.83 (self), 33.67 (all other voters)

Green voters: 37.49 (self), 24.45 (all other voters)

NOW voters: none, small sample-size (self), 31.33 (all other voters)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Coldstream on August 12, 2019, 02:14:15 am
According to Wikipedia the Greens now have 1 member of the National Council, I presume this is a defection from another party (Pilz List?) does anyone know the specifics?

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/liste-jetzt-aufloesung-alma-zadic-gruenen-pilz-10847387

Alma Zadic, a former member of the Pilz List, joined the Greens and will run as 5th on their list (which means she will be elected again).

Interesting, was she a former Green before Pilz? I ask because Im surprised the Greens would want someone from a party that split off from them to rejoin.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DavidB. on August 12, 2019, 03:03:29 am
FP voters position themselves at 62.98, but all voters say the FP is at 81.20

VP voters: 53.24 (self), 61.35 (all other voters)

NEOS voters: 44.35 (self), "roughly the same" (all other voters)

SP voters: 37.83 (self), 33.67 (all other voters)

Green voters: 37.49 (self), 24.45 (all other voters)

NOW voters: none, small sample-size (self), 31.33 (all other voters)
Does the last figure represent other voters' impression of the left-right stance of these parties' voters or of the left-right stance of the party itself? In the last case, the difference is logical. Obviously your average Green or FP voter is going to be more "centrist" than the party.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Omega21 on August 12, 2019, 09:40:55 am
Molotov attack on FP HQ in Lower Austria:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Landbauer-Es-haette-Tote-geben-koennen/392662350



Meanwhile, people are pissed off about Rendi-Wagner (the leader of the "socialists") having some fun in one of the supposedly most exclusive Clubs in St. Tropez (100 Eur/beach chair/day)

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Rendi-Foto-im-Luxus-Club-spaltet-das-Netz/392636379


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2019, 11:29:25 am
According to Wikipedia the Greens now have 1 member of the National Council, I presume this is a defection from another party (Pilz List?) does anyone know the specifics?

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/liste-jetzt-aufloesung-alma-zadic-gruenen-pilz-10847387

Alma Zadic, a former member of the Pilz List, joined the Greens and will run as 5th on their list (which means she will be elected again).

Interesting, was she a former Green before Pilz? I ask because Im surprised the Greens would want someone from a party that split off from them to rejoin.

No, she was a lawyer before joining the Pilz list, who then made herself a name in the Kickl investigation committee.

Thats a reason why the Greens took her on board.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2019, 11:30:22 am
FP voters position themselves at 62.98, but all voters say the FP is at 81.20

VP voters: 53.24 (self), 61.35 (all voters)

NEOS voters: 44.35 (self), "roughly the same" (all voters)

SP voters: 37.83 (self), 33.67 (all voters)

Green voters: 37.49 (self), 24.45 (all voters)

NOW voters: none, small sample-size (self), 31.33 (all voters)
Does the last figure represent other voters' impression of the left-right stance of these parties' voters or of the left-right stance of the party itself? In the last case, the difference is logical. Obviously your average Green or FP voter is going to be more "centrist" than the party.

The latter.

How all voters perceive (...) party.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 13, 2019, 10:51:04 am
Austrian Prosecutors Target Freedom Partys Former Vice Chancellor In Raids

Quote
Austrian prosecutors raided addresses linked to the nationalist Freedom Partys former Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache and the head of gambling company Novomatic AG on suspicions of graft and corruption.

The probe centers on the appointment of Freedom Partys Peter Sidlo to the management board of Casinos Austria AG, a lottery and casino operator in which the Austrian government and Novomatic own stakes, a Casinos Austria spokesman said, confirming a report in Austrian newspaper Der Standard. Casinos Austria isnt a target of the probe, he said.

()

Investigators are looking into whether Strache, former junior Finance Minister Hubert Fuchs, and others pledged favorable legal changes in return for Novomatic backing the appointment at Casinos Austria, Der Standard said.

A spokesman for the white-collar prosecutors office in Vienna confirmed that raids took place Monday in relation to a graft investigation. The prosecutors suspect six individuals and one gambling company, he said. He declined to elaborate, citing the confidentiality of the investigation.

Novomatic Chief Executive Officer Harald Neumann and owner Johann Graf are among those being probed, Der Standard said. A spokesman for Novomatic declined to comment.

Sidlo didnt immediately return an email seeking comment. He was also appointed to the Austrian central banks supervisory board by the Freedom Party last year. The Freedom Party said it would comment later Tuesday.

Strache resigned as vice chancellor and Freedom Party Chairman in May, following the release of a video in which he was shown promising state contracts for cash to a woman claiming to be a Russian oligarchs niece and plotting the takeover of Austrias largest newspaper.

Conservative Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, who had governed in a coalition with the Freedom Party, was toppled a few days later, and Austria will now have an election Sept. 29.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-13/austrian-prosecutors-target-freedom-party-s-strache-in-probe


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 13, 2019, 01:27:16 pm
Heres the official Doppelspitze of the leftist Change party for the September 29 election:

()

Dani Platsch & Fayad Mulla.

Mulla (Austrian mother, Syrian father) would probably be the first lead candidate with an Arab migrant background IIRC.

Platsch is of Austrian-Slovak origin and was mostly raised in Germany, but now lives here. She was frontrunner for the pan-European list of Varoufakis in Germany during the EU election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 13, 2019, 01:36:32 pm
The KPs leadership trio for the election:

()

Ivo Hajnal (a university professor for old Greek linguistics) from Innsbruck

Elke Kahr (city council member in Graz, where the Communists are popular with 20%)

Zeynep Arslan (a social scientist, journalist, author)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2019, 11:38:19 am
It emerged today that Strache and Gudenus (FP) are also being investigated by the state prosecution as possible "enemies of the state":

Quote
Auch dass wegen Grndung einer staatsfeindlichen Verbindung ermittelt wird, war bisher nicht bekannt. Der Zweck einer solchen Verbindung ist laut 246 Strafgesetzbuch, auf gesetzwidrige Weise die Unabhngigkeit, die in der Verfassung festgelegte Staatsform oder eine verfassungsmige Einrichtung der Republik sterreich oder eines ihrer Bundeslnder zu erschttern.

Wenn Strache und Gudenus ausfhren, wie sie Gesetze, die ordnungsgeme Bestellung von Organen oder ordnungsgeme Ausschreibungen umgehen, ist eindeutig die Unabhngigkeit (der Republik sterreich, Anmerkung) erschttert.

Quote
It was not yet known that an "establishment of an anti-state connection" is being investigated. The purpose of such a connection is, according to 246 Penal Code, "to undermine in an unlawful manner the independence, the state form stipulated in the constitution or a constitutional institution of the Republic of Austria or one of its federal states".

"If Strache and Gudenus would have acted in a way that they evade laws, the proper appointment of organs or proper tenders, the independence (of the Republic of Austria, note) is clearly shaken."

https://orf.at/stories/3133682

In effect this means that the prosecutor could charge both of them for being traitors to the country.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2019, 01:47:46 pm
Today, the federal election commission has released the qualified parties and all candidates that are running in the Sept. 29 election on the federal (https://www.bmi.gv.at/412/Nationalratswahlen/Nationalratswahl_2019/start.aspx#bundeswahlvorschlaege), state and electoral district level (https://www.bmi.gv.at/412/Nationalratswahlen/Nationalratswahl_2019/start.aspx#bewerber).

XIT has not made the ballot, which means the quick count of their submitted signatures was upheld and they fell short of the necessary signatures.

8 parties are running Austria-wide and 5 other parties in some states only. These small parties can still enter parliament, but for this they have to receive a so-called basic mandate (Grundmandat) in a regional election district. That usually means some 20% of the votes in such a district, which is utopic for such meaningless small parties.

With the announcement of the qualified parties and candidates, postal ballots can now be printed and sent to voters.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2019, 01:57:07 pm
It seems the public ORF broadcaster is not fully ignoring the small parties that are competing the election Austria-wide ...

Tonight at 10pm, the above-mentioned frontrunners for the leftist "Change" party (Daniela Platsch) and for the far-left Communists (Ivo Hajnal) will be interviewed during the heavily-watched ZIB2 news show.

https://orf.at/stories/3133745


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2019, 02:13:01 pm
New OGM poll for the "Kurier" newspaper:

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https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurier-ogm-umfrage-oevp-deutlich-vorn-spoe-festigt-platz-zwei/400578569


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: mileslunn on August 14, 2019, 03:39:19 pm
Barring some unforseen event, its pretty clear Kurz will be re-elected, the question is what coalitions are most likely:

Does he bring back the right wing one of OVP-FPO? Go for Grand coalition of OVP-SPO, three party one of OVP-Greens-NEOS.  I presume OVP-NEOS is his preferred followed by OVP-Greens but if neither of those work, which of the first three is most likely and are there any we can rule out?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Omega21 on August 14, 2019, 04:05:54 pm
Barring some unforseen event, its pretty clear Kurz will be re-elected, the question is what coalitions are most likely:

Does he bring back the right wing one of OVP-FPO? Go for Grand coalition of OVP-SPO, three party one of OVP-Greens-NEOS.  I presume OVP-NEOS is his preferred followed by OVP-Greens but if neither of those work, which of the first three is most likely and are there any we can rule out?

I think Kurz and the socialists are the most unlikely, as people are very much tired of it.

Kurz Greens and Neos would probably be more liked by people in general if the Greens did not touch anything related to welfare or migration.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 14, 2019, 11:11:23 pm
Here are OGMs results about which coalitions people want after the election:

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https://kurier.at/politik/inland/ogm-kurier-umfrage-waehler-wollen-wieder-tuerkis-blau/400578614


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 15, 2019, 01:46:26 am
The state prosecution is also investigating the VP in connection with the Ibiza-video and their "shredding scandal", where they secretly destroyed several hard-disks after the video emerged:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107420476/ibiza-affaere-ermittlungen-auch-wegen-steuer-und-staatsfeindlichkeit

All of this should be good news for SP, NEOS, Greens and NOW - who could run on transparency over the next weeks, pushing up their vote share.

But I guess the SP is still too incompetent again to take advantage of this. The SP is like a football team that was awarded a penalty kick, but not from 11m distance but 3m distance to the goal and they would still not score ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: tack50 on August 15, 2019, 06:56:37 am
Why is Hofer slightly more popular than Rendi Wagner?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Omega21 on August 15, 2019, 07:56:56 am
Why is Hofer slightly more popular than Rendi Wagner?

Because he draws FP voters, and some Center-Right (VP) voters, because he was always the "more moderate" face of the party.

He did not have any big scandals and was always more moderate than Strache.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 15, 2019, 08:38:20 am
Why is Hofer slightly more popular than Rendi Wagner?

Because he draws FP voters, and some Center-Right (VP) voters, because he was always the "more moderate" face of the party.

He did not have any big scandals and was always more moderate than Strache.

Additionally, Hofer has the advantage of having already received 50% of the voters in presidential elections, therefore having good coverage among the electorate.

Considering the 2.5 million voters that Hofer already received, his 23% as Chancellor candidate are kinda mediocre.

But Hofer is definitely an asset for the FP right now, because hes polling higher than the party itself.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 15, 2019, 02:43:20 pm
A 11-person Muslim family from Palestine (refugees) is finally allowed to buy a fancy new home in the Vienna suburbs, after the mayor and many future neighbours fought them tooth-and-nail over the past months:

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https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/muslimische-familie-darf-haus-in-weikendorf-doch-kaufen-skepsis-der-nachbarn-bleibt/400579064

The family moved to Vienna several years ago as stateless refugees from Palestine. The father was a teacher in Palestine and later had a restaurant in Vienna, which went broke. Currently, the family was living with friends at an apartment.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy a 200.000-500.000 home in the Vienna suburbs as refugees, which is probably part of the concern for future neighbours - coupled with the cultural problem. Maybe they won the money in the lottery or something ?

Nonetheless, the family says that they are no terrorists and will throw a big party when they move into their new home and invite their critical neighbours ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Omega21 on August 15, 2019, 02:50:46 pm
A 11-person Muslim family from Palestine (refugees) is finally allowed to buy a fancy new home in the Vienna suburbs, after the mayor and many future neighbours fought them tooth-and-nail over the past months:

()

https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/muslimische-familie-darf-haus-in-weikendorf-doch-kaufen-skepsis-der-nachbarn-bleibt/400579064

The family moved to Vienna several years ago as stateless refugees from Palestine. The father was a teacher in Palestine and later had a restaurant in Vienna, which went broke. Currently, the family was living with friends at an apartment.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy a 200.000-500.000 home in the Vienna suburbs as refugees, which is probably part of the concern for future neighbours - coupled with the cultural problem. Maybe they won the money in the lottery or something ?

Nonetheless, the family says that they are no terrorists and will throw a big party when they move into their new home and invite their critical neighbours ...

Wait, so I can just buy a 500k house without proving where my money came from?

I just think they are not investigating it due to their nationality, as I'm sure a Yugo with 500k in cash would not be allowed to buy something without any explanation, which would be common sense.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: President Johnson on August 15, 2019, 02:54:58 pm
^^ Probably members of a so-called "Clan" or connected to one, who make a ton of money through various crime activities. It has gotten out of control in Berlin and law enforcement just recently started to get much tougher on them.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 15, 2019, 02:58:17 pm
A 11-person Muslim family from Palestine (refugees) is finally allowed to buy a fancy new home in the Vienna suburbs, after the mayor and many future neighbours fought them tooth-and-nail over the past months:

()

https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/muslimische-familie-darf-haus-in-weikendorf-doch-kaufen-skepsis-der-nachbarn-bleibt/400579064

The family moved to Vienna several years ago as stateless refugees from Palestine. The father was a teacher in Palestine and later had a restaurant in Vienna, which went broke. Currently, the family was living with friends at an apartment.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy a 200.000-500.000 home in the Vienna suburbs as refugees, which is probably part of the concern for future neighbours - coupled with the cultural problem. Maybe they won the money in the lottery or something ?

Nonetheless, the family says that they are no terrorists and will throw a big party when they move into their new home and invite their critical neighbours ...

Wait, so I can just buy a 500k house without proving where my money came from?

I just think they are not investigating it due to their nationality, as I'm sure a Yugo with 500k in cash would not be allowed to buy something without any explanation, which would be common sense.

To me, the family makes an OK impression and I would not have a problem with them as neighbours.

On the other hand, I also understand their future neighbours and the concerns brought forward by them - even if they are just reasons of envy.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy such an expensive house as accepted refugees (who usually collect welfare money from the state). But maybe this is not the case here and as accepted refugees, the father and some other family members were able to get work and cash and a loan from a bank (which the article mentions) to buy the house or part of it.

Still, how does an Austrian bank award a house loan to a refugee family ? Usually, refugees are considered high-risk customers for banks because their asylum status can be revoked within short time and the people deported. Who's then paying back the loan to the bank ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 15, 2019, 03:22:54 pm
^^ Probably members of a so-called "Clan" or connected to one, who make a ton of money through various crime activities. It has gotten out of control in Berlin and law enforcement just recently started to get much tougher on them.

Not sure this is the case here and there's probably no criminal activities involved.

Still, if I were an employee of a bank and a refugee comes in asking for a several hundred thousand loan to buy a house, my alarm bells would go off. Their status as aslyum seekers could be revoked and they could be deported to Palestine again. And my job as bank employee would probably be over.

Also: the VP-mayor of the town will appeal the decision by the state agency responsible to allow them the house purchase (also led by the VP). Also, the FP in the town is nuts over the purchase.

I wonder how the town will vote in the federal election next month ...

Here are the results from the 2017 election:

https://wahl17.bmi.gv.at/30860.html

The town voted a bit more VP-FP than Austria as a whole and voted 52-48 for Hofer (FP) in the 2016 presidential election runoff (and by 57-43 in the invalidated runoff).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Omega21 on August 15, 2019, 04:42:48 pm
A 11-person Muslim family from Palestine (refugees) is finally allowed to buy a fancy new home in the Vienna suburbs, after the mayor and many future neighbours fought them tooth-and-nail over the past months:

()

https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/muslimische-familie-darf-haus-in-weikendorf-doch-kaufen-skepsis-der-nachbarn-bleibt/400579064

The family moved to Vienna several years ago as stateless refugees from Palestine. The father was a teacher in Palestine and later had a restaurant in Vienna, which went broke. Currently, the family was living with friends at an apartment.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy a 200.000-500.000 home in the Vienna suburbs as refugees, which is probably part of the concern for future neighbours - coupled with the cultural problem. Maybe they won the money in the lottery or something ?

Nonetheless, the family says that they are no terrorists and will throw a big party when they move into their new home and invite their critical neighbours ...

Wait, so I can just buy a 500k house without proving where my money came from?

I just think they are not investigating it due to their nationality, as I'm sure a Yugo with 500k in cash would not be allowed to buy something without any explanation, which would be common sense.

To me, the family makes an OK impression and I would not have a problem with them as neighbours.

On the other hand, I also understand their future neighbours and the concerns brought forward by them - even if they are just reasons of envy.

Nobody knows where they got the money from to buy such an expensive house as accepted refugees (who usually collect welfare money from the state). But maybe this is not the case here and as accepted refugees, the father and some other family members were able to get work and cash and a loan from a bank (which the article mentions) to buy the house or part of it.

Still, how does an Austrian bank award a house loan to a refugee family ? Usually, refugees are considered high-risk customers for banks because their asylum status can be revoked within short time and the people deported. Who's then paying back the loan to the bank ?

You are correct.

I would assume they could only get a loan with a very large down payment, but it would need to be significant enough so that even if they don't pay, they can just repossess the property and get their money easily (like if they put down 150,000+).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 16, 2019, 06:17:30 am
Projected turnout for the Sept. 29 federal election, according to pollster OGM:

88-89%

https://www.ogm.at/innenpolitik/ogm-nrw-wahlumfrage-august-2019

In 2017, it was 80%.

In 2013, it was 75%.

A bit high if you ask me, I'd say more like 80-85% this time.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 16, 2019, 06:31:17 am
Monday will be the unofficial start of the intensive campaign for the parties.

Norbert Hofer (FP) will be interviewed by the ORF during prime time for 1 hour as part of their summer interview series (NOW and NEOS candidates were already interviewed).

Also on Monday, the SP will unveil their first poster campaign.

The Greens will unveil their first poster campaign next Friday.

VP, FP, NEOS will wait a bit longer with their campaign start (until early September) and NOW will not have election posters at all.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 16, 2019, 07:07:03 am
The 2018 Report on Right-wing, Left-wing and Islamist extremism in Austria was released by the Interior Ministry:

https://www.bmi.gv.at/bmi_documents/2344.pdf

Islamic terrorism remains the largest threat to Austrian security because of IS fighters returning home and home-grown fanatics.

On the other hand, left-wing extremism cases dropped from 307 in 2017 to 237 in 2018.

Right-wing extremism cases rose from 1.576 to 1.622

Most of the cases in both camps are because of the anti-Nazi law (banned symbols etc.) or hate speech or incitement of hatred or minor offences such as vandalism.

Assault cases are extremely rare, but more common among left-wing extremists:

Left-wingers were responsible for 7 cases of heavy assault with injury, right-wingers just for 2 cases of assault.

No murders were reported because of left- or right-wing extremism.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 16, 2019, 11:10:43 am
A goodie for DavidB.:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107484128/kickl-spricht-sich-strikt-gegen-identitaeren-verbot-aus

Kickl speaks out strongly against banning the Identitarian movement, as it would be an attack on free speech and assembly (which is guaranteed by the Constitution).

This is an answer to the VP, which said today they want to take additional steps in the next government to ban political Islam and right-wing extremism.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 17, 2019, 02:14:52 am
These are the most important topics for Austrian voters for the upcoming federal election, according to the new 24 poll:

% who say the following topic is important + very important for their vote choice

* Healthcare
* A fair tax system
* Security/Crime
* Education
* Affordable living/rents
* Fight against Corruption
* Climate Protection
* Administrative reforms
* Economic Policy
* Traffic
* Migration and Asylum
* European Politics
* Austria's reputation abroad

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Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 18, 2019, 12:12:20 am
Top: How would you rate the political mood/climate for this party right now ?

Bottom: How would different subgroups vote ?

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Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 18, 2019, 06:29:41 am
The VP puts some pressure on the FP now, by saying that banning the far-right "Identitarian Movement" is a pre-condition for them in a future coalition.

The FP says the VP is becoming a party of "bans" and that it is "overreacting" and downplays such a demand.

The VP on the other hand says that the FP has become a "guardian angel for right-wing extremists".

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/oevp-nennt-verbot-der-identitaeren-als-koalitionsbedingung/400580729


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DavidB. on August 18, 2019, 06:33:47 am
Don't understand where the VP thinks its leverage comes from. Not as if they have a majority with NEOS in the polls, huh? Wishing Kurz best of luck in governing with the Greens and losing his popularity with VP-FP swing voters.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 18, 2019, 06:43:47 am
Don't understand where the VP thinks its leverage comes from. Not as if they have a majority with NEOS in the polls, huh? Wishing Kurz best of luck in governing with the Greens and losing his popularity with VP-FP swing voters.

The VP is just being populist here, because a big majority of Austrians want the extremist Identitarian Movement banned.

That's probably what the VP thinks is their "mandate" on this topic.

VP-Greens-NEOS indeed seems to becoming more likely again after all the FP troubles recently.

The leader of the Tyrol Greens (who herself is in a coalition with the VP there) said today that she's open to coalition talks with Kurz after the election ... (after having concerns before).

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107518727/felipe-zeigt-sich-offen-fuer-koalition-mit-kurz

On the other hand, that will be good for the country and also good for you, David, and the FP - because the party can regroup in opposition again ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Famous Mortimer on August 18, 2019, 07:21:36 am
If Generation Identity can be banned for being vaguely "extremist" without actually engaging in violence, what's to stop the Freedom Party from being banned for "extremism"? I guess just popularity but only allowing freedom of expression based on popularity seems like a bad idea.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Omega21 on August 18, 2019, 09:39:45 am
If Generation Identity can be banned for being vaguely "extremist" without actually engaging in violence, what's to stop the Freedom Party from being banned for "extremism"? I guess just popularity but only allowing freedom of expression based on popularity seems like a bad idea.

Hear hear!

If America has one thing right, it's freedom of expression.

We are not able to have the same level of freedom, as I would still support the ban on any type of Nazi glorification/Genocide denial and the ban on all forms of Nazi symbols (due to obvious, historic reasons), but I am for freedom of expression up to the point of what I just mentioned, or any calls to action.



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 18, 2019, 10:45:41 am
If Generation Identity can be banned for being vaguely "extremist" without actually engaging in violence, what's to stop the Freedom Party from being banned for "extremism"? I guess just popularity but only allowing freedom of expression based on popularity seems like a bad idea.

Hear hear!

If America has one thing right, it's freedom of expression.

We are not able to have the same level of freedom, as I would still support the ban on any type of Nazi glorification/Genocide denial and the ban on all forms of Nazi symbols (due to obvious, historic reasons), but I am for freedom of expression up to the point of what I just mentioned, or any calls to action.

Yeah, this.

The VP wants to ban them as an organisation, but it doesn't mean it can be banned so easily. Registered organisations or associations in Austria (Verein) are being protected quite strongly under the law and constitution, so if there's not some form of violence or extreme hate speech, you will not find judges willing to ban them ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 on August 18, 2019, 11:31:11 am
I don't think the Identitarians should be shut down, but it's not like you guys were upset when Austria shut several mosques and expelled their imams from the country because of their Islamist leanings.  If Generation Identity is allowed, then it stands to reason so should the ATIB and MB.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 18, 2019, 12:04:07 pm
I don't think the Identitarians should be shut down, but it's not like you guys were upset when Austria shut several mosques and expelled their imams from the country because of their Islamist leanings.  If Generation Identity is allowed, then it stands to reason so should the ATIB and MB.

That's a bit of a different matter, because ATIB and the Muslim Brotherhood are directly steered and financed from abroad and act as an extended arm of a foreign country, such as Turkey, Saudi-Arabia etc. - which cannot be said of the Identitarians. Obviously, the IM needs to be closely monitored and banned if they engage in violent acts and everything related to political Islam needs to be weeded out as well. Kurz isn't completely wrong on this issue and has 80%+ of Austrians on his side. There needs to be a serious crackdown on these movements, so that it doesn't spread further. After all, political Islam + the Neo-Nazis are a cancer.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 on August 18, 2019, 12:29:57 pm
that's the thing: Islamism, Turkish nationalism and neo-Nazis are all cancers but I'm increasingly leaning towards a discomfort towards the use of state power to shut down organizations using legal sophistry. If an organization is directly encouraging and organising violent acts against people it should be shuttered, but I don't think merely holding terrible views is grounds for a legal ban.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 18, 2019, 01:22:54 pm
A few charts for the election:

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Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on August 18, 2019, 01:32:21 pm
The logo of Die Bierpartei looks like the former Logo of the german FDP (they used this logo between 2001 and 2013 and a very similar one till 2015)

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Source: public domain
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Freie_Demokratische_Partei_%28Logo,_2001-2013%29.svg


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 18, 2019, 01:40:46 pm
The logo of Die Bierpartei looks like the former Logo of the german FDP (they used this logo between 2001 and 2013 and a very similar one till 2015)

()
Source: public domain
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Freie_Demokratische_Partei_%28Logo,_2001-2013%29.svg

Yeah, I noticed this as well.

I wonder what percentage the Beer Party will get in Vienna, especially in the election district of Vienna-South, which is where their origins are ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Cranberry on August 18, 2019, 03:03:43 pm
As the mosque closings have been mentioned, it should perhaps be added that every single measure taken there (closure of 7 mosques, expulsion of several ATIB (Turkish) Imams, closure of the (Saudi-financed) Arab religious community) has since then been rendered null and void by the courts, partially due to legal form errors and partially due to disagreeing with basic rights and freedoms. There is a very large probability that any hypothetical measures regarding the IB would suffer the same fate. Incidentally, that is a very recurring theme when it comes to Sebastian Kurz's record in goverment (whether as foreign minister or as chancellor), so very fitting perhaps.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 19, 2019, 12:09:29 pm
With just 6 weeks to go until the election, the intensive campaign period has started today for the parties.

The SP unveiled the 1st of 3 poster campaigns, focusing on the climate crisis and work and titled "Humanity wins.":

One of the more interesting proposals is a "climate ticket" for all public transport systems, worth 1/day for one state, 2/day for 3 states, or 3/day for all of Austria.

And a minimum wage of 1.700 per month, 14x per year - which is ca. 14.20$/hour in US-terms. Plus a 6th paid vacation week for everyone after 25 years of work (currently, this is only the case if you have been in the same company for 25 years).

https://www.spoe.at/2019/08/19/plakate-fuer-die-spoe-wahlkampagne-2019

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Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 19, 2019, 12:16:51 pm
Molotov attack on FP HQ in Lower Austria:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Landbauer-Es-haette-Tote-geben-koennen/392662350

A young Afghan so-called "refugee" has been identified and arrested as one of the perpetrators.

The 4 suspects were caught on camera throwing the Molotov cocktails into the FP headquarter, but one was so stupid and set himself on fire and later had to be treated at a hospital for burn wounds and he was arrested there. 3 remain at large.

The FP is wild and Norbert Hofer demands his immediate deportation.

https://www.krone.at/1980170

Also:

Norbert Hofer (FP) will be interviewed during the ORF's "summer interview" series tonight at 9pm.

https://orf.at/stories/3134215


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 19, 2019, 12:23:58 pm
The "election cabin" with 26 questions for the upcoming federal election is online:

https://wahlkabine.at/nationalratswahl-2019/wahlkabine/1

My results:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 19, 2019, 12:38:53 pm
Here's a "vote cabin" analysis by Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik, based on the party answers on the 26 questions and how much the parties have in common with each other combined (excluding the weighting feature of "important" to "not important" for each question):

()

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107542875/plattform-wahlkabinezur-nationalratswahl-gestartet

Example:

SP and FP have the same opinion on 50% of the 26 questions, without the importance of the questions factored in.

VP and FP have 81% in common (21 of 26 questions).

Greens and VP have only 19% in common (5 questions), even lower than the 23% for FP and Greens (6 questions).

Greens+Jetzt (NOW)+KP+Wandel (Change) are virtually identical on the 26 questions and have between 81-92% in common.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 19, 2019, 03:03:47 pm
Norbert Hofer (FP) will be interviewed during the ORF's "summer interview" series tonight at 9pm.

https://orf.at/stories/3134215

Hofer spent ca. 25 minutes talking about climate change (definitely man-made) and renewable energy (I want to tax it less, so that Austria gets de-carbonized and more people switch to renewable energy.), 20 minutes about Strache and various FP scandals (We are proud of what Strache has done for our movement over the past 15 years, but under my watch he will not return to political office until all accusations are dealt with in court.) and 1 minute about foreigners or immigration (everyone knows what the FP stands for.)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 19, 2019, 03:17:35 pm
The 1 minute Hofer talked about immigration in the 1-hour interview is creating the biggest buzz on Twitter right now because:

ORF-Moderator: As you may know, asylum requests this year are down to 6.000 so far, compared to 90.000 in the year 2015. Is asylum and immigration still a big topic for the FP today ?

Hofer: Of course it is. Everyone knows what the FP stands for: low asylum requests and swift deportation of criminals, the protection of Austrian citizens. If I read newspaper reports about crimes being committed, I can often tell you the origin of the perpetrator. And that this perpetrator is certainly not from a random (insert Austrian) city, but from a foreign culture where the knife is sitting a bit easier.

Twitter folks call the knife-comment highly racist ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 19, 2019, 03:37:20 pm
An Austrian summer TV interview of party leaders, with crickets chirping in the background:

()

A scene from The Bachelor:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 19, 2019, 11:49:00 pm
Over the next week, the final number of eligible voters (incl. all the registered Austrians abroad) will be released.

But based on the preliminary numbers it is already clear that the number of voters will slightly decrease for the 1st time since 1995.

In 2017, about 6.401 million people were eligible to vote - but this time it will be around 5.000 people less because of more Austrian citizens dying than being born, which is not compensated with enough naturalisations of foreigners.

I expect a total of 6.396.000 eligible voters.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 21, 2019, 11:12:25 am
The "election cabin" with 26 questions for the upcoming federal election is online:

Nobody doing the test ?

PS: a huge 4x3 meter SP-campaign poster (the one with Rendi-Wagner and the other people on it) has been put up in front of our company.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: bigic on August 21, 2019, 12:40:17 pm
My results :)

()

BTW it's a shame that NEOS is the only Austrian party that supports the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 21, 2019, 12:43:56 pm
BTW it's a shame that NEOS is the only Austrian party that supports the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement.

Not really.

Mercosur is a pretty bad deal, which would wreak havoc on the small European farmers.

Besides it's an absolutely shi**y and counterproductive deal as well: Why should Europeans import South American meat, if the same can be produced locally from our small farmers and sold here without transporting the (often tainted) meat all the way from South America, creating tons of additional CO2 emmissions ?

I vigorously oppose this trade deal.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Laki on August 21, 2019, 12:54:12 pm
()

My result, but i would vote KPO. Answered on 24 questions, except 2 i didn't understand.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 21, 2019, 12:57:29 pm
Answered on 24 questions, except 2 i didn't understand.

Which ones ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 21, 2019, 01:00:13 pm
Kurz making more moves towards VP-Greens-NEOS:

https://www.krone.at/1981455

Kurz said he would be OK now if young asylum seekers in an apprenticeship with a company will not be deported during their 3-year apprenticeship (as is the case now).

Instead, they can complete it and only then will get their positive or negative asylum decision.

The FP is not happy.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Laki on August 21, 2019, 01:33:44 pm
Sollen die verpflichtenden Rundfunkgebhren abgeschafft werden?
Soll der Einsatz staatlicher berwachungssoftware (Bundestrojaner) fr verschlsselte Nachrichten und Messengerdienste erlaubt sein?

Sollen die Unternehmenssteuern gesenkt werden? -> I voted nein, but why ar ethe leftist parties for?
Soll das Amtsgeheimnis zugunsten eines Informationsfreiheitsgesetzes abgeschafft werden? -> what kind of secrets? I voted no this time
Soll eine verpflichtende Pflegeversicherung eingefhrt werden? -> I voted yes, but why do leftist parties vote against?
Sollen allgemeine Studiengebhren eingefhrt werden? -> Why do leftist parties vote against. I voted yes, but it's a local measure.
Soll die gemeinsame Schule der 10- bis 14-Jhrigen eingefhrt werden? -> which system does it have currently

()

results of this time.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 21, 2019, 01:49:29 pm
Sollen die verpflichtenden Rundfunkgebhren abgeschafft werden?

Austria has mandatory broadcasting fees (TV+Radio), which are paid by every household. Should the fee be abolished ?

Soll der Einsatz staatlicher berwachungssoftware (Bundestrojaner) fr verschlsselte Nachrichten und Messengerdienste erlaubt sein?

That's about a sniffing software that is used by the police, based on a warrant from a prosecutor, where phones or computers of a suspect can be hacked and his/her activities monitored. Should it be allowed ?

Sollen die Unternehmenssteuern gesenkt werden? -> I voted nein, but why ar ethe leftist parties for?

Should corporate taxes be lowered ? The leftist parties are not voting for, only the SP. All other lefist parties do not want them lowered. The SP (together with VP, FP, NEOS) want some corporate taxes lowered, especially for small and medium-sized companies. But no on lower taxes for capital gains.

https://wahlkabine.at/nationalratswahl-2019/stellungnahmen

Soll das Amtsgeheimnis zugunsten eines Informationsfreiheitsgesetzes abgeschafft werden? -> what kind of secrets? I voted no this time

This is about the "administrative secrecy" provision in the Constitution, which requires all administrative workers (civil servants) not to release any administrative information to the public. This is in contrast to a transparent "administrative freedom of information law", which most other EU countries have already adopted. Should the law be abolished in favour of such a new administrative freedom of information law ?

Soll eine verpflichtende Pflegeversicherung eingefhrt werden? -> I voted yes, but why do leftist parties vote against?

Should Austria introduce an old-age long-term-care insurance system (like Germany), or should old-age long-term-care continue to be paid out of the current budget ? This would shift the burden of planning for eventual old-age care from the state to the individual. Only the VP is currently supporting it, all other parties are opposed and want the state to continue to pay for old-age care.

Sollen allgemeine Studiengebhren eingefhrt werden? -> Why do leftist parties vote against. I voted yes, but it's a local measure.

Should tuition fees be introduced in Austria ? Currently, Austrian citizens + EU-citizens have to pay no tuition fees for studying at universities. Other citizens have to pay ca. 750 per semester. All parties except VP+NEOS say that access to universities and studies need to remain free of charge for everyone.

Soll die gemeinsame Schule der 10- bis 14-Jhrigen eingefhrt werden? -> which system does it have currently

Complicated and local. There are several types of schools for this age-group right now, but the talk among left-leaning parties in recent years was about introducing a fully comprehensive all-day school for the 10-14 year olds. Conservative parties are opposed to this merger and a common all-day school form and want to keep the individual forms instead. Some schools have tried experimenting with these forms and found it to be more inclusive, while critics have said that if it's too inclusive then good students will fall behind because more resources are being used for immigrant kids who need a lot of attention because of their lack of German etc. skills ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 21, 2019, 02:39:05 pm
In the first 6 months, there were:

20.280 marriages in Austria, among them 480 by gay couples.

638 civil unions, among them 78 by gay couples.

So, 86% of gay couples chose marriage over civil unions.

Both the number of births and deaths decreased by about 3% in the first half of this year and the population increased by 18.000 to about 8.877.000 people.

Link (http://www.statistik.at/web_de/statistiken/menschen_und_gesellschaft/bevoelkerung/geborene/111888.html)

Link (http://www.statistik.at/web_de/statistiken/menschen_und_gesellschaft/bevoelkerung/bevoelkerungsstand_und_veraenderung/bevoelkerung_zu_jahres-_quartalsanfang/043397.html)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Laki on August 22, 2019, 03:45:57 am
()

Changed my results considerably.

My answers:

Soll statt der Mindestsicherung ein bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen eingefhrt werden? No
Soll die wchentliche Arbeitszeit bei vollem Lohnausgleich auf 30 Stunden gekrzt werden? Yes
Soll sterreich das EU-Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen besttigen? No
Sollen die Unternehmenssteuern gesenkt werden? No
Soll Erben steuerfrei bleiben? No
Soll das gesetzliche Pensionsantrittsalter erhht werden? No
Soll eine unabhngige Behrde zur Untersuchung von Polizeibergriffen eingerichtet werden? Yes
Sollen allgemeine Studiengebhren eingefhrt werden? No
Soll die gemeinsame Schule der 10- bis 14-Jhrigen eingefhrt werden? No
Soll eine verpflichtende Mindestquote von 50 % Frauen auf allen KandidatInnenlisten zu Nationalrats- und Landtagswahlen eingefhrt werden? No
Soll der Schutz vor Diskriminierung aufgrund der sexuellen Orientierung auch auerhalb der Arbeitswelt gelten? No
Sollen Schwangerschaftsabbrche von der Krankenkasse bernommen werden? Yes
Sollen Asylwerbende eine Arbeitserlaubnis erhalten? No
Sollen straffllige Personen ohne sterreichische Staatsbrgerschaft unabhngig von ihrer bisherigen Aufenthaltsdauer abgeschoben werden? Yes
Soll sich sterreich fr eine zivile, EU-finanzierte Seenotrettung einsetzen? No
Soll das Amtsgeheimnis zugunsten eines Informationsfreiheitsgesetzes abgeschafft werden? Yes
Soll das allgemeine Wahlrecht auf Bundesebene auf sterreichische StaatsbrgerInnen beschrnkt bleiben? Yes
Soll der Rechnungshof alle Parteifinanzen prfen und Strafen verhngen drfen? Yes
Sollen die verpflichtenden Rundfunkgebhren abgeschafft werden? Yes
Sollen Internetforen verpflichtet werden die Klarnamen aller NutzerInnen zu erfassen und herauszugeben? No
Soll der Einsatz staatlicher berwachungssoftware (Bundestrojaner) fr verschlsselte Nachrichten und Messengerdienste erlaubt sein? No
Soll sterreich sich fr ein Ende der EU-Sanktionen gegen Russland einsetzen? Yes
Soll eine Impfpflicht fr Kinderkrankheiten eingefhrt werden? Yes
Soll eine verpflichtende Pflegeversicherung eingefhrt werden? No
Soll ein flchendeckendes Pfandsystem fr Getrnkeverpackungen (Dosen, Plastikflaschen) eingefhrt werden? Yes
Soll eine CO2-Steuer eingefhrt werden? No


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 22, 2019, 01:04:48 pm
First FP poster campaign (I guess):

()

"Hofer: (Some)One, who is still living our values."

"Kickl: (Some)One, who is talking our language (or says things how they are)."

There is another one with Kickl, which says "One, who is protecting our homeland (Heimat)."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 22, 2019, 01:07:54 pm
First NEOS campaign poster:

()

"Connecting the environment & the economy. Nobody else does it."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 23, 2019, 09:58:40 am
This is the actual 1st FP poster campaign, as they have popped up around the city overnight and were presented at a press conference today (the ones I posted yesterday seem to be web ads):

()   ()

"Fair. Social. Loyal to the homeland. Continue the coalition for our homeland."

The Kickl one has a double-meaning:

"Certainly for Austria." or "Providing security for Austria."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 23, 2019, 10:12:33 am
1st Green poster campaign was presented today as well and they have 9 (!) different posters out (one with frontrunner Werner Kogler and 8 issue-oriented):

()   ()   ()

()   ()   ()

()   ()   ()

https://zurueckzudengruenen.at/themen

The Kogler poster says: "Clean Environment. Clean Politics. 29 September: Back to the Greens."

The other posters say: "Which party would [insert topic] vote for ?"


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 23, 2019, 10:24:46 am
The polls remain very stable, but the new Research/24 poll has "other parties" rising to 4%.

"Other parties" include the far-left "Change" and the far-left KP (Communists) and several small parties that are only running in some states, such as the Beer Party in Vienna or the Alliance of Patriots in Carinthia.

4% seems kinda high, but not impossible, especially if Change and KP get 1% each and the Beer Party about 5% in Vienna as a protest option. 5% in Vienna would mean 1% Austria-wide.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 on August 23, 2019, 10:38:23 am
Would the Beer Paryu get a seat in Vienna with those numbers?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 23, 2019, 10:42:44 am
There will be another meeting of parliament just a few days before the election (the 1st meeting of the 2019-20 legislative session) and some 30-40 laws will be passed in this one.

NEOS has warned about costly election "gifts" and "gimmicks" just a few days before the election, which could be a burden for the budget - just to get a few more votes.

An example of this is that VP, SP and FP have agreed today to vote for a 3.6% pension increase for 2020. This is good news for them and the retired people of Austria, the biggest and most important voting bloc and VP and SP's most loyal voters. The FP does better with working-age people, but of course they remain populist and vote for it. NEOS will vote against.

The 3.6% pension increase is double the inflation rate of the past year and is also more than what most workers will get next year (I guess +2% on average).

Considering we'll have a budget surplus of ca. 0.5-1% of GDP this year, this is OK for a rise but if the laws and goodies for voters pile up during the session, it could end up like a massive budget problem as well, worth a few additional billions of ...

https://orf.at/stories/3134674


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 23, 2019, 10:45:50 am
Would the Beer Party get a seat in Vienna with those numbers?

Absolutely not.

They would need a so-called "basic mandate" in one of the 7 regional election districts in Vienna. Their best chance is in Vienna-South, but even there they would need at least 17-20% for such a seat. I think the VP got one with 17.8% there in the last election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 on August 23, 2019, 10:49:18 am
Oh I thought Vienna was all one big constituency, oops.



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 23, 2019, 10:56:49 am
Oh I thought Vienna was all one big constituency, oops.

The 183 seats in parliament are determined by a 3-layered system of Hare/Niemeyer and D'Hondt, first using the 39 electoral districts in Austria to calculate seats, then the remaining ones at the state and federal level.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: tack50 on August 23, 2019, 02:40:34 pm
Would the Beer Party get a seat in Vienna with those numbers?

Absolutely not.

They would need a so-called "basic mandate" in one of the 7 regional election districts in Vienna. Their best chance is in Vienna-South, but even there they would need at least 17-20% for such a seat. I think the VP got one with 17.8% there in the last election.

Tbh wouldn't the BP have a chance in a regional election if they are at 5% in Vienna?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 24, 2019, 12:15:16 am
Would the Beer Party get a seat in Vienna with those numbers?

Absolutely not.

They would need a so-called "basic mandate" in one of the 7 regional election districts in Vienna. Their best chance is in Vienna-South, but even there they would need at least 17-20% for such a seat. I think the VP got one with 17.8% there in the last election.

Tbh wouldn't the BP have a chance in a regional election if they are at 5% in Vienna?

But they are not at 5% in Vienna.

They could also be at just 0.5% there, nobody knows their potential.

And even with 5%, it could be spread very evenly among the districts - with some having 3% and the others 7%. But not the 18% that is required for a basic seat.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 24, 2019, 06:22:59 am
New "Profil" magazine poll (19.-22. August) shows SP and FP dropping to a record-low of 20% and the Greens reaching a record-high 12% in their poll:

Also, by a 48-46 margin, Austrians want the Greens in the next government.

47% of Austrians say that their image of Sebastian Kurz has worsened since the Ibiza affair, with 50% saying it has not.

35% of Austrians say that the FP is still "fit" to be a government party, while 60% say they are not.
()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 24, 2019, 06:54:30 am
Austria is starting to return children of female IS-fighters next week who went to Syria:

https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/oesterreich-holt-kinder-von-is-anhaengerin-zurueck/400586198

This case is about a Bosnian immigrant girl who went to Syria at the age of 14 some 5 years ago and probably died during the final battle of Baghuz. A DNA test with the grandparents in Vienna identified the two boys, aged 1 and 3, as their relatives. They will be taken from the Kurdish Al-Hol camp to Vienna.

It is estimated that there are an additional 20 children with an Austria-connection in the camps in Syria, some with their mothers, some alone. One such case involves a native (!) Austrian girl from Salzburg, who converted to Islam and is now stuck in the camp with her 2 kids. Maybe they will be brought back as well during the interim government. If VP-FP win the election and form a government again, this window will close again and they will be stuck in Syria forever ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: urutzizu on August 24, 2019, 07:07:29 am
involves a native (!) Austrian girl from Salzburg,

This is not as suprising as you may think. In fact western converts to islam are much more likely to radicalize than immigrants are. Converts constitute an estimated 2-3% of Britains Muslims, yet converts have been involved in 31% of jihadist terrorism convictions in the UK.
For those interested here is a good Article on that issue: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/01/isis-criminals-converts/426822/

Oh and is it just me or is it disproportionately redheads?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 24, 2019, 07:20:44 am
involves a native (!) Austrian girl from Salzburg,

This is not as suprising as you may think. In fact western converts to islam are much more likely to radicalize than immigrants are. Converts constitute an estimated 2-3% of Britains Muslims, yet converts have been involved in 31% of jihadist terrorism convictions in the UK.
For those interested here is a good Article on that issue: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/01/isis-criminals-converts/426822/

Oh and is it just me or is it disproportionately redheads?

I'm pretty mixed if the women + children should return. But I guess if they show remorse for their actions and are willing to face some court action, it's probably better for Austria to return them. Such camps like the al-Hol one are no places for small children to grow up.

https://www.news.at/a/is-braut-maria-kriegsgefangene-10834379

Link (https://www.bundeskriminalamt.at/fahndung/start.aspx?fndgb=PERSONENFAHNDUNG&fndgm=1&fndgid=C5F79695ED9D47048BCAA620C5DEF8EC&fndgo=0&fndgsw=1)

In her case, it seemed she came out of a regular household but was taken to mosques in the Salzburg and Vienna area by Muslim friends and became a IS-sympathizer.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 25, 2019, 07:46:44 am
Polls hardly have any numbers about projected turnout so far for the election, but the new Research/24 poll says that their weekly poll only has 72% certain voters (which would be a record-low turnout for Austrian federal elections. The 2017 election had 80% and the previous record-low was 75% in 2013).

24 also says that the 72% figure dropped from 77% certain voters the week ago, so this might just be a bad sample. On the other hand, the recent OGM poll put turnout at 88-89%, which is definitely too high.

I think the high 80% from 2017 might not be achieved again, because many people are certainly going to be pissed by all the Ibiza, party financing, shredding etc. scandals.

But who knows ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 25, 2019, 02:01:27 pm
Norbert Hofer (FP) is currently being interviewed in the town-hall-style PULS 4 election arena:


Hofer was first asked about his motivation to enter politics and mentioned the death of his sister at the age of 16. A fact that I didnt know before (even though it is also mentioned on his Wikipedia page).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 25, 2019, 02:16:00 pm
Hofer has to deal with a lot of questions ranging from climate to more mental health financing to all-day child care and finally Ibiza:



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 26, 2019, 11:53:02 am
Green ad promoting their election program (choose "German" subtitles, then "translate"):




PDF (https://zurueckzudengruenen.at/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Wahlprogramm_Die_Gruenen_NRW2019.pdf)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 27, 2019, 10:46:24 am
Yesterday evening during primetime, SP-leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner was interviewed by the public ORF as part of the "summer interview" series and was interrupted 4 times by an elephant nearby:



Starting at minute 13:13 ... :P


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: crals on August 27, 2019, 10:49:34 am
Why is the SPOe doing so poorly in polls even? Is Rendi-Wagner an ineffective leader?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: urutzizu on August 27, 2019, 10:58:04 am
Yesterday evening during primetime, SP-leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner was interviewed by the public ORF as part of the "summer interview" series and was interrupted 4 times by an elephant nearby:



Starting at minute 13:13 ... :P

Ich dachte das ist ein Sommergesprch und keine Elefantenrunde? :)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 27, 2019, 10:59:26 am
Why is the SPOe doing so poorly in polls even? Is Rendi-Wagner an ineffective leader?

There are many reasons ...

A combination of impeaching Kurz (which a lot of voters didn't want), internal chaos and infighting in the SP (or at least some people like Doskozil and the Tyrol-SP leader doing what they want) and Rendi-Wagner is seen as competent (on health care), but not really able to clean up the party, be a real "boss" or make the party fit for government. She wasn't even able to turn it into a proper opposition party in the last 2 years. And all the immigration-critical voters have already abandoned the SP for the FP.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 27, 2019, 11:29:57 pm
First Kurz/VP poster campaign:

()

Same slogan as the Kickl web-ad from the FP.

"Someone, who's talking our language (or says how things are). That's my Chancellor."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DavidB. on August 28, 2019, 04:23:10 am
So Hofer-Kickl now have issues with Strache?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2019, 10:43:28 am
So Hofer-Kickl now have issues with Strache?

Strache has become a pariah in the FP and this will not change until a court finds him guilty or clears him.

I wouldnt say issues, but they want him to remain silent for the next month.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2019, 10:50:34 am
The VP has a total of 4 posters for their first wave:



The Sprache slogan has already been used before by Kickl, Strache and Jrg Haider.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: mileslunn on August 28, 2019, 12:39:05 pm
I am guessing OVP barring some major scandal or something really dramatic happening wins.  Question is will OVP + Greens or OVP + NEOS be enough or will OVP need both to govern.  If both become feasible, which is more likely?  I would think Neos would be more aligned than Greens although usually junior left wing parties take a hit and looking at how things are going in Germany and to a lesser extent in Netherlands there is a possibility Greens could replace SPO as main left wing party and I think today's left (your urban younger educated types vs. your smaller city blue collar types of the past) makes Greens better positioned long term to appeal to left.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2019, 01:14:14 pm
IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SP
21% FP
19% VP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SP
13% FP
13% VP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: bigic on August 28, 2019, 02:58:43 pm
IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SP
21% FP
19% VP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SP
13% FP
13% VP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Pretty interesting - VP support among the LGBT people is much lower than in the general population, while the FP's support is much more balanced across the sexual orientations. Why is VP so unpopular in the LGBT community - do they have a history of homophobia?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2019, 11:39:34 pm
IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SP
21% FP
19% VP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SP
13% FP
13% VP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Pretty interesting - VP support among the LGBT people is much lower than in the general population, while the FP's support is much more balanced across the sexual orientations. Why is VP so unpopular in the LGBT community - do they have a history of homophobia?

The VP has homophobia written all over them (despite what Kurz says now).

If it weren't for the courts, the VP would not have moved a cm on this topic or the topics involving it.

Another reason could be that most gays/lesbians are living in urban areas, by moving there or because they are less likely to declare to pollsters as gay/lesbian in rural areas.

Therefore, the poll results skew urban and in urban areas the VP does generally much worse than in the countryside. Unless they have weighted the results for urban/rural, then I might be wrong.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on August 29, 2019, 01:40:53 am
IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SP
21% FP
19% VP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SP
13% FP
13% VP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Pretty interesting - VP support among the LGBT people is much lower than in the general population, while the FP's support is much more balanced across the sexual orientations. Why is VP so unpopular in the LGBT community - do they have a history of homophobia?

The VP is the party of rural religious Catholics... so well. 


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DL on August 29, 2019, 11:08:43 am
IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SP
21% FP
19% VP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SP
13% FP
13% VP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Who are the LGBTQ people who would vote FPO? Do they have framed portraits of Ernst Roehm over their mantelpieces?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2019, 11:14:23 am
IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SP
21% FP
19% VP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SP
13% FP
13% VP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Who are the LGBTQ people who would vote FPO? Do they have framed portraits of Ernst Roehm over their mantelpieces?

They exist. One of my former co-workers was gay and he was highly racist.

Plus, Jrg Haider was probably secretly gay too and surrounded himself with other young gay men.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DL on August 29, 2019, 11:19:21 am
IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SP
21% FP
19% VP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SP
13% FP
13% VP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Who are the LGBTQ people who would vote FPO? Do they have framed portraits of Ernst Roehm over their mantelpieces?

They exist. One of my former co-workers was gay and he was highly racist.

Plus, Jrg Haider was probably secretly gay too and surrounded himself with other young gay men.

In other words they are the modern day equivalent of the Roehm wing of the early Nazi party - before "you know who" had them all killed off.

Seriously though I surprised that the NEOS party wouldn't do better among LGBTQ people. I would have thought that they would be highly appealing to the subset of gay men in particular who are "I'm rich, beautiful and successful (or I at least want to identify with rich, beautiful successful people) and therefore I want low taxes and less government regulation - but keep me safe from that socially conservative religious crap"


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2019, 11:23:53 am
IFQM poll:

How would LGBTQ males in Austria vote ?

24% Greens
22% SP
21% FP
19% VP
10% NEOS
  2% NOW
  2% Others

How would LGBTQ females in Austria vote ?

37% Greens
21% SP
13% FP
13% VP
  7% NEOS
  5% NOW
  4% Others

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/oesterreich/2024797-Schwule-Maenner-waehlen-anders.html

Who are the LGBTQ people who would vote FPO? Do they have framed portraits of Ernst Roehm over their mantelpieces?

They exist. One of my former co-workers was gay and he was highly racist.

Plus, Jrg Haider was probably secretly gay too and surrounded himself with other young gay men.

In other words they are the modern day equivalent of the Roehm wing of the early Naziu party - before "you know who" had them all killed off.

Seriously though I surprised that the NEOS party wouldn't do better among LGBTQ people. I would have thought that they would be highly appealing to the subset of gay men in particular who are "I'm rich, beautiful and successful (or I at least want to identify with rich, beautiful successful people) and therefore I want low taxes and less government regulation - but keep me safe from that socially conservative religious crap"

10% of gay men voting NEOS is above average anyway (they are polling at 7-8%).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2019, 11:30:35 am
SP spot:




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DL on August 29, 2019, 11:33:30 am

10% of gay men voting NEOS is above average anyway (they are polling at 7-8%).

I'm aware of that - but its very marginal. If I were trying to engineer a party that was specifically designed to appeal to that more economically conservative segment of LGBTQ people - it would look a lot like NEOS. Why would anyone LGBTQ who was more right of centre vote OVP or FPO when NEOS seems like a party that would be so perfect for them? (well OK, I guess for the FPO voters maybe NEOS isn't racist enough)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2019, 11:46:20 am
10% of gay men voting NEOS is above average anyway (they are polling at 7-8%).

I'm aware of that - but its very marginal. If I were trying to engineer a party that was specifically designed to appeal to that more economically conservative segment of LGBTQ people - it would look a lot like NEOS. Why would anyone LGBTQ who was more right of centre vote OVP or FPO when NEOS seems like a party that would be so perfect for them? (well OK, I guess for the FPO voters maybe NEOS isn't racist enough)

One would think that NEOS and Greens are the perfect parties for gays, but that doesnt explain the high share for the FP.

On the other hand, some 35-40% of young hetero men would vote for the FP, so the FP-share among gay men is already far below average.

All this poll shows is that homosexuals here are not a homogeneous voter block, like a 2-party system in the US would suggest, where gays and lesbians vote 80%+ Democratic.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DL on August 29, 2019, 11:54:27 am

All this poll shows is that homosexuals here are not a homogeneous voter block, like a 2-party system in the US would suggest, where gays and lesbians vote 80%+ Democratic.

That goes without saying...but if the US had proportional representation and 5 or 6 parties represented in Congress, i suspect that percentage of LGBTQ people who would vote for a small party representing the homophobic, anti-intellectual, evangelical Christian wing of the GOP led by some sarah Palin or Mike Pence type - would be in low single digits...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on August 29, 2019, 05:17:15 pm
LGBTQ+ people in the US isn't a heterogeneous political group either (pun sort of half intended), even though most of them fall with-in the big tent of the democratic party, but you get everything from your Mayor Pete is our sexy lord and savior centrist type to the Mayor Pete is a Conservative fraud and only Bernie Sanders can overthrow capitalist oppression socialist type...

As for the gay voters who votes for parties like the FP or Sweden Democrats, they (based on my own non-scientific anecdotal experience) range from people who're mostly just worried about anti-gay sentiments among non-European immigrants, to people who're just plain racist. You don't really have to spend a lot of time on Grindr (or wherever the kids get their nudes these days) to realize that there are plenty of bigoted gay men out there.

As a matter of fact one of the first guys I went on a date with was an Australian exchange student who turned out to be an overt misogynist, who among other stuff claimed he only dated and slept with men because women were so "thoroughly disgusting" and spent a considerable amount of our date telling me how revolting Julia Gillard's body and personality was... Gays are not automatic angles is all I'm trying to say.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DL on August 29, 2019, 07:56:22 pm
LGBTQ+ people in the US isn't a heterogeneous political group either (pun sort of half intended), even though most of them fall with-in the big tent of the democratic party, but you get everything from your Mayor Pete is our sexy lord and savior centrist type to the Mayor Pete is a Conservative fraud and only Bernie Sanders can overthrow capitalist oppression socialist type...

As for the gay voters who votes for parties like the FP or Sweden Democrats, they (based on my own non-scientific anecdotal experience) range from people who're mostly just worried about anti-gay sentiments among non-European immigrants, to people who're just plain racist. You don't really have to spend a lot of time on Grindr (or wherever the kids get their nudes these days) to realize that there are plenty of bigoted gay men out there.

As a matter of fact one of the first guys I went on a date with was an Australian exchange student who turned out to be an overt misogynist, who among other stuff claimed he only dated and slept with men because women were so "thoroughly disgusting" and spent a considerable amount of our date telling me how revolting Julia Gillard's body and personality was... Gays are not automatic angles is all I'm trying to say.

Then there are the ones whose role model is J. Edgar Hoover


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2019, 11:08:04 pm
Weekly 24 poll:

()

With just a month to go, the race for 1st place seems to be decided, as more than 80% of Austrians have decided on their vote choice. The race for 2nd and 4th are still pretty open, but I guess advantage for the SP and Greens.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: mileslunn on August 29, 2019, 11:10:15 pm
Weekly 24 poll:

()

With just a month to go, the race for 1st place seems to be decided, as more than 80% of Austrians have decided on their vote choice. The race for 2nd and 4th are still pretty open, but I guess advantage for the SP and Greens.

How likely is either an OVP-Neos or OVP-Green coalition or will Kurz likely need both of them and if both are viable, which would be more likely.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2019, 11:16:24 pm
How likely is either an OVP-Neos or OVP-Green coalition or will Kurz likely need both of them and if both are viable, which would be more likely.

VP-NEOS would definitely be too weak.

VP-Greens in the right circumstances would be possible, if the Greens get around 15% - while the SP totally collapses even behind the FP.

But I wonder if Kurz will then really go for VP-Greens, as the Greens are making clear right now during the campaign that Kurz will have to get serious on the topic of combating climate change and introduce far-reaching measures.

Kurz could then instead go for a coalition with a destroyed SP under new leadership (a possibility which is gaining ground among experts right now) or with the FP (but that is more unlikely).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 30, 2019, 08:43:58 am
Weird new FP ad (couple therapy) in which Norbert Hofer tries to convince Sebastian Kurz to continue their VP-FP marriage:




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: tack50 on August 30, 2019, 08:59:06 am
How likely is either an OVP-Neos or OVP-Green coalition or will Kurz likely need both of them and if both are viable, which would be more likely.

VP-NEOS would definitely be too weak.

VP-Greens in the right circumstances would be possible, if the Greens get around 15% - while the SP totally collapses even behind the FP.

But I wonder if Kurz will then really go for VP-Greens, as the Greens are making clear right now during the campaign that Kurz will have to get serious on the topic of combating climate change and introduce far-reaching measures.

Kurz could then instead go for a coalition with a destroyed SP under new leadership (a possibility which is gaining ground among experts right now) or with the FP (but that is more unlikely).

Why would SP agree to that? Do they want to end like the SPD in Germany?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 30, 2019, 10:39:48 am
How likely is either an OVP-Neos or OVP-Green coalition or will Kurz likely need both of them and if both are viable, which would be more likely.

VP-NEOS would definitely be too weak.

VP-Greens in the right circumstances would be possible, if the Greens get around 15% - while the SP totally collapses even behind the FP.

But I wonder if Kurz will then really go for VP-Greens, as the Greens are making clear right now during the campaign that Kurz will have to get serious on the topic of combating climate change and introduce far-reaching measures.

Kurz could then instead go for a coalition with a destroyed SP under new leadership (a possibility which is gaining ground among experts right now) or with the FP (but that is more unlikely).

Why would SP agree to that? Do they want to end like the SPD in Germany?

Now that the SP has lost 5% in opposition, they might think that at least they have some power in such a new coalition by getting some cabinet posts.

That's better than losing polling support and having no power at all ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 30, 2019, 11:14:25 am
The state of Styria might have slightly earlier state elections than planned.

Usually, Styria (VP-SP government) would vote in May 2020 after a 5-year term - but the FP has introduced a early vote proposal in the state parliament recently.

The VP-Governor (who until recently was strongly opposed to early elections) said "he'll think about it to avoid a constant campaign atmosphere until next May".

The SP calls it a bullsh*t move and reminded him that voters wanted the government to complete the full term.

Today it seemed that VP+FP+Greens have all agreed to support early elections, probably to be held in November.

Those 3 parties are currently polling really well in Styria and in the case of the Greens everywhere, so that is certainly a reason behind it.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/schwarz-blau-gruen-neuwahlen-in-der-steiermark-praktisch-fix/400591859


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Cranberry on August 30, 2019, 12:27:29 pm
Why is the SPOe doing so poorly in polls even? Is Rendi-Wagner an ineffective leader?

At least part of the answer to that lies in the fact that the SP not losing votes in 2017 was for the largest part due to "borrowed" votes from the Greens that were never going to stay once the Greens got their act together again - i.e. a large portion of 2017 SP voters used to reliably vote Green before and do now again so (look no further than the results in Vienna's 7th district for the perfect example) The "real" loss of votes for the SP, or better the left-wing camp in general, was between 2013 and 2017 - in the last two years all changes were basically intra-bloc (FP -> VP, SP+Jetzt -> Greens), with Neos in the middle syphoning off a few votes from everywhere; quite interestingly, the balance of power between left and right has changed remarkably little.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2019, 01:26:21 am
70% of Austrian voters support a general 1.700 minimum wage (14x per year*), like the SP has proposed in their election program:

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190831_OTS0001/profil-umfrage-70-der-oesterreicher-sind-fuer-einen-mindestlohn-von-1700-euro-in-allen-berufsgruppen

* The 13th and 14th wages are taxed a bit differently, resulting in slightly higher net wages for the employee than the regular 12 net wages.

That's ca. 14.30$/hour in US-terms. The Greens are calling for a 1.750 general minimum wage (15$/hour).

Currently, wages are set and raised each year through negotiations of the so-called Social Partnership - which includes members of the employer side and employee side (= union representatives). I for example are represented in the metal industry bargaining talks, which is a branch that historically has relatively high wages and good wage increases (like the +4% or so last year).

()

Each branch of the labour market therefore has their own set of wages and wage increases. There are still some areas where the minimum wage is quite low, such as for the restaurant, cleaning or hotel business, who would benefit from such a general minimum wage. VP+FP+NEOS are largely opposed to such a general minimum wage, because "it would hurt business owners". Their voters on the other hand support it though, according to the poll.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2019, 07:26:51 am
Here are some charts from the recent 24 poll (vote by state and by age):

The VP might indeed win Burgenland and Carinthia, which would be historical. They have not done so in more than 50 years. That's like Republicans winning MA or MN during a Presidential election.

Even Vienna is an option. The VP or Christian-Socials have never won there in over 130 years.

()

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: parochial boy on August 31, 2019, 07:31:37 am
That's actually the second poll I've seen with relatively decent (by comparison) numbers for SP with the under 30s - that's kind of goes against the received wisdom about who their electorate normally consists of.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Cranberry on August 31, 2019, 01:16:16 pm
That's actually the second poll I've seen with relatively decent (by comparison) numbers for SP with the under 30s - that's kind of goes against the received wisdom about who their electorate normally consists of.

Exit polls from the EP election showed a similar picture - Greens and Neos stronger the younger the voters, SP and FP basically even throughout all ages, VP stronger the older with a huge lead among pensioners. Compare that to 2013 for instance to get a completely different picture more align with the SPD electorate, for instance. It seems to me as if the left- to right- exodus between 13 and 17 was carried much more by older voters, while it largely glossed over the under 30.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 02, 2019, 10:51:50 am
Final number of eligible voters:

6.396.796

Down from 6.400.993 during the 2017 election.

First time since 1995 that the number of eligible voters has decreased for a federal election.

Reasons: More Austrian citizens are dying than being born right now, which is not compensated any longer by enough naturalisations of foreigners, or by additional Austrians abroad registering to vote.

PDF-Link (https://bmi.gv.at/412/Nationalratswahlen/Nationalratswahl_2019/files/endgueltige_Zahl_der_Wahlberechtigten_NRW19_NRW17.pdf)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 02, 2019, 11:18:48 pm
Tonight @ 6.30pm, the 1st big TV debate involving all major candidates (Kurz, PRW, Hofer, Kogler, Meinl-Reisinger, Pilz) will take place on ORF III:

Link (https://tvthek.orf.at/live/Wahl-19-Klartext-Die-Konfrontation-der-Spitzenkandidaten/14029827)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 03, 2019, 11:08:15 am
The City of Vienna reported today that they have already received more than 100.000 postal ballot requests.

4 weeks before the election.

At the same time before the 2017 election, they received 35.000 requests.

In total, 206.000 were then requested for the election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: crals on September 03, 2019, 11:45:53 am
Tonight @ 6.30pm, the 1st big TV debate involving all major candidates (Kurz, PRW, Hofer, Kogler, Meinl-Reisinger, Pilz) will take place on ORF III:

Link (https://tvthek.orf.at/live/Wahl-19-Klartext-Die-Konfrontation-der-Spitzenkandidaten/14029827)
Why Pilz instead of the actual party leader?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 03, 2019, 11:53:41 am
Tonight @ 6.30pm, the 1st big TV debate involving all major candidates (Kurz, PRW, Hofer, Kogler, Meinl-Reisinger, Pilz) will take place on ORF III:

Link (https://tvthek.orf.at/live/Wahl-19-Klartext-Die-Konfrontation-der-Spitzenkandidaten/14029827)
Why Pilz instead of the actual party leader?

Pilz is 1st on their election list and has always been the "party leader" in reality. Maria Stern is only the alibi-leader of the party.

BTW: the debate has now started (see link) and Kurz is heavily attacked by SP (would have been too powerful with a minority government, that's why we ousted him), NEOS (not transparent enough on party finances), Pilz (totally corrupt and the 2nd Ibiza party). Kogler from the Greens has not yet spoken.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 03, 2019, 11:59:02 am
Kogler (Greens) with extremely good arguments about the non-existing VP, FP, SP party finance transparency ... agreeing with NEOS and Pilz, who are the only 2 other parties with transparent finances.

Should be noted that the VP received 3 million in donations last year on top of Europe's highest public party financing and 1 million of it from Austrian billionaire Heidi Horten.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 03, 2019, 12:18:04 pm
Kogler (Greens):

"This government has been concreting us back to the past." (... investing billions of in a new runway at Vienna's airport)

"Austria must not become the parking lot of Europe." (... massive car/truck transit through Austria and overtourism)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 04, 2019, 12:07:09 pm
DavidB. could soon become an Austrian citizen (if he wants to):

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108198775/doppelpass-fuer-nachfahren-von-ns-opfern-kommt-doch

VP-FP had dual citizenship for relatives of former Nazi-victims on their agenda before their coalition blew apart.

Now, NEOS is taking another step and will introduce a law in the September parliamentary sessions, the last ones before the election.

It seems all parties will vote in favour to grant relatives of Nazi victims all over the world Austrian citizenship (if they can somehow prove that they once lived here).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on September 05, 2019, 02:56:10 am
DavidB. could soon become an Austrian citizen (if he wants to):

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108198775/doppelpass-fuer-nachfahren-von-ns-opfern-kommt-doch

VP-FP had dual citizenship for relatives of former Nazi-victims on their agenda before their coalition blew apart.

Now, NEOS is taking another step and will introduce a law in the September parliamentary sessions, the last ones before the election.

It seems all parties will vote in favour to grant relatives of Nazi victims all over the world Austrian citizenship (if they can somehow prove that they once lived here).

Spain, Romania (I think?), and Portugal all have variants of laws like this, which is handy given the massive brain drain of Israelis to Europe. These laws may or may not be designed to lure well-educated Israeli yuppies to Europe (as if they needed a law to do that!), but in any case it definitely is smart given European demographic realities.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: urutzizu on September 05, 2019, 05:23:42 am
DavidB. could soon become an Austrian citizen (if he wants to):

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108198775/doppelpass-fuer-nachfahren-von-ns-opfern-kommt-doch

VP-FP had dual citizenship for relatives of former Nazi-victims on their agenda before their coalition blew apart.

Now, NEOS is taking another step and will introduce a law in the September parliamentary sessions, the last ones before the election.

It seems all parties will vote in favour to grant relatives of Nazi victims all over the world Austrian citizenship (if they can somehow prove that they once lived here).

Spain, Romania (I think?), and Portugal all have variants of laws like this, which is handy given the massive brain drain of Israelis to Europe. These laws may or may not be designed to lure well-educated Israeli yuppies to Europe (as if they needed a law to do that!), but in any case it definitely is smart given European demographic realities.

Germany also has such a law. It has helped lure many wealthy young Israelis, especially in the tech industry, to places like Berlin. It is part of a sad irony, of course: Just as more and more European Jews are leaving Germany, France and other European countries for Israel over increasing antisemitism, Israeli Jews are coming here because they are uncomfortable with the Situation in Israel.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 05, 2019, 11:03:45 am
3 major elections coming up:

29.09. Federal Election
13.10. Vorarlberg State Election
24.11. Styria State Election (date confirmed today)

Next year: Burgenland and Vienna


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 05, 2019, 12:28:03 pm
New poll by Karmasin Research & Identity for PULS24 News (n=3.000 people this week, aged 16+, online+phone):

()

This is a new weekly tracking poll.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 05, 2019, 12:45:49 pm
The pollster is Sophie Karmasin (on the right), who comes from a prominent opinion polling family. Their parents founded the Austrian Gallup Institute and she was former Minister of Youth and Families between 2013-17, an Independent appointed by the Mitterlehner-VP.

Interestingly, Sabine Beinschab (owner of Research Affairs), which does weekly polls for the tabloid newspaper 24, has previously also worked for Karmasin/Gallup.

The Karmasin and Research Affairs poll results are therefore pretty similar, maybe because they use similar methods ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 05, 2019, 03:09:02 pm
Heres another vote cabin tool for the election:

https://wahlhelfer.wienerzeitung.at

I got the Greens again.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: tack50 on September 05, 2019, 03:36:07 pm
No percentages this time but I got Jetzt>SP=Grne>Neos>FP>VP


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 05, 2019, 11:40:44 pm
The VP says they were recently hacked (by the Russians ?) and more than 1.300 gigabytes of data was stolen from their servers ...

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/absolut-plausibel-was-experten-zum-hacker-angriff-auf-oevp-sagen/400597691

I call it bullsh*t, because they simply want to divert attention from all their recent scandals and want to portray themselves as victims instead.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: rob in cal on September 06, 2019, 01:44:13 am
Tender, I was in Innsbruck yesterday and didn't see many campaign posters at all. Maybe because I was in the touristy altstadt?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 06, 2019, 08:40:20 am
Tender, I was in Innsbruck yesterday and didn't see many campaign posters at all. Maybe because I was in the touristy altstadt?

I think it really depends ... here for example, they are everywhere - mostly around shopping centers, roads and traffic circles, where (working) people are.

Maybe there are fewer posters in the touristy inner-city areas.

How did you like Innsbruck (aside from the weather, which took a cold turn yesterday and today, just 6-12 degrees Celsius) ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 06, 2019, 01:02:55 pm
I have cast my postal ballot today, for the Greens.

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 06, 2019, 01:12:36 pm
128.000 postal ballots have been sent out already in Vienna, with 3 weeks until the election.

That's more than double the amount of 2017.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: rob in cal on September 06, 2019, 01:37:10 pm
Tender we enjoyed innsbruck. Walked around the altstadt, went to the hofburg museum, saw the Dom. I love how the city is surrounded by mountains.  Then back to Garmisch after the day trip.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: parochial boy on September 06, 2019, 01:37:29 pm
Quote
Dabei machte ich eine einladende Handbewegung zum schwarzen Ledersofa. Doch der Mann, der an die Tre gelehnt stand, schttelte nur sanft seinen Kopf, weiter in die Leere blickend.
😂😂😂

Oh my god, he's so creepy


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 06, 2019, 01:42:25 pm
Tender we enjoyed innsbruck. Walked around the altstadt, went to the hofburg museum, saw the Dom. I love how the city is surrounded by mountains.  Then back to Garmisch after the day trip.

Cool. I'll pick up my sister from the Salzburg Airport on Sunday, if you are in the area, please let me know.

Quote
Dabei machte ich eine einladende Handbewegung zum schwarzen Ledersofa. Doch der Mann, der an die Tre gelehnt stand, schttelte nur sanft seinen Kopf, weiter in die Leere blickend.
😂😂😂

Oh my god, he's so creepy

WTF is this ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: parochial boy on September 06, 2019, 01:47:31 pm
Quote
Dabei machte ich eine einladende Handbewegung zum schwarzen Ledersofa. Doch der Mann, der an die Tre gelehnt stand, schttelte nur sanft seinen Kopf, weiter in die Leere blickend.
😂😂😂

Oh my god, he's so creepy

WTF is this ?

Kurz's official biography (https://www.watson.ch/international/leben/521143892-kanzler-sebastian-kurz-veroeffentlicht-biografie-so-lacht-das-internet). Out next week!


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 06, 2019, 01:55:11 pm
Quote
Dabei machte ich eine einladende Handbewegung zum schwarzen Ledersofa. Doch der Mann, der an die Tre gelehnt stand, schttelte nur sanft seinen Kopf, weiter in die Leere blickend.
😂😂😂

Oh my god, he's so creepy

WTF is this ?

Kurz's official biography (https://www.watson.ch/international/leben/521143892-kanzler-sebastian-kurz-veroeffentlicht-biografie-so-lacht-das-internet). Out next week!

This book sounds like fun.

Quote
So entpuppte sich Kurz als ein Baby, das auf der berholspur fuhr. (...) Die ersten kompletten Stze sprach der kleine Sebastian Kurz bereits mit einem Jahr und stellte damit viele andere Kinder in den Schatten. Es waren keine Sprechversuche, die er machte, sondern er sprach bereits ganze Stze.

LOL.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 06, 2019, 11:56:11 pm
New OGM/Kleine Zeitung poll for the Nov. 24 state election in Styria:

()

VP: +3% compared with the 2015 state election
SP: -6%
FP: -1%
Greens: no change
KP: +1%
NEOS: +1%
Others: +2%

Voters do not like the decision by VP+FP+Greens to hold the state elections half a year earlier than planned, but the exact numbers are behind a paywall.

SP+KP voted against earlier elections this year and wanted to finish the 5-year term in May 2020.

The SP has already unveiled their campaign slogan: "Real Styrians finish what they started."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2019, 12:12:16 am
It seems Styrian voters are punishing the parties that voted for early state elections, because a OGM/Krone poll last month showed the VP at 33%, the FP at 27% and the Greens at 10%. The SP has gained 3% in the last month.

Just like Austrian voters are punishing SP+FP for the early federal elections.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2019, 02:00:36 am
New Market poll for the "Standard" (n=800, Sept. 2-4, CATI/online):

34% VP (-1)
22% SP (n.c.)
21% FP (+1)
11% Greens (+1)
  9% NEOS (-1)
  2% NOW (+1)
  1% Others (-1)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108335531/kurz-faellt-in-umfrage-zurueck-oevp-fuehrt-aber-deutlich


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Hnv1 on September 07, 2019, 03:15:41 am
I went through the bios of a lot of candidates and it seems Austrians dont care much for formal education. Why is that? Austrian politicians have a really subpar bio when it comes to academic qualifications


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2019, 03:23:35 am
I went through the bios of a lot of candidates and it seems Austrians dont care much for formal education. Why is that? Austrian politicians have a really subpar bio when it comes to academic qualifications

Why should it matter that major politicians have an academic degree ? You don't need that to lead a country in a proper manner. A high school degree is certainly enough. You only need to have street smarts. Most of the real work is done by their aides anyway in the background (and most of them have an academic degree). A lot of people with a higher degree are mostly smug anyway and have no connection to ordinary working people (see the douche Macron).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2019, 03:37:11 am
I went through the bios of a lot of candidates and it seems Austrians dont care much for formal education. Why is that? Austrian politicians have a really subpar bio when it comes to academic qualifications

It should be noted that 6/8 frontrunners (7/9 with Peter Pilz) have a completed academic degree from a university.

Only Kurz and Hofer have no academic degrees (even though Hofer has a chief engineer degree as an aerospace technician).

Only Kurz has just a high school degree (he studied a few semesters at university, but never finished his studies. He said he might do so later.)


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Hnv1 on September 07, 2019, 05:37:29 am
I went through the bios of a lot of candidates and it seems Austrians dont care much for formal education. Why is that? Austrian politicians have a really subpar bio when it comes to academic qualifications

Why should it matter that major politicians have an academic degree ? You don't need that to lead a country in a proper manner. A high school degree is certainly enough. You only need to have street smarts. Most of the real work is done by their aides anyway in the background (and most of them have an academic degree). A lot of people with a higher degree are mostly smug anyway and have no connection to ordinary working people (see the douche Macron).
Well I think a leader needs some pedigree of knowledge of the world that exceeds that gained by a high school degree or a degree in communications from some poor university. Having a president who went to Penn State or a PM that went to the university of East Angllia will be a bit more than a trivia fact. Yale law school or oxford PPE programs are also pretty much set on qualifying future politicians.

But Germany is also similar in that matter so I guess its a cultural thing


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2019, 06:30:30 am
I went through the bios of a lot of candidates and it seems Austrians dont care much for formal education. Why is that? Austrian politicians have a really subpar bio when it comes to academic qualifications

Why should it matter that major politicians have an academic degree ? You don't need that to lead a country in a proper manner. A high school degree is certainly enough. You only need to have street smarts. Most of the real work is done by their aides anyway in the background (and most of them have an academic degree). A lot of people with a higher degree are mostly smug anyway and have no connection to ordinary working people (see the douche Macron).
Well I think a leader needs some pedigree of knowledge of the world that exceeds that gained by a high school degree or a degree in communications from some poor university. Having a president who went to Penn State or a PM that went to the university of East Angllia will be a bit more than a trivia fact. Yale law school or oxford PPE programs are also pretty much set on qualifying future politicians.

But Germany is also similar in that matter so I guess its a cultural thing

Yes, it's cultural.

In the sense that in the US and some other Anglo countries it is mostly expected within families that the child goes to college after high school.

This is not the case in Germany or Austria, or at least has not been for the past decades and is only now more of a factor among the well-educated and academic families (which has never been a high share here).

Most parents value(d) real, hard work and a vocational, technical education/apprenticeship much more than an academic education. Germany/Austria/Switzerland are therefore more based on century-old Handwerk (= craftsmanship) than academia.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2019, 07:11:33 am
Salzburg's FP-leader Marlene Svazek (27) re-elected with 94% today.

()

In her speech, she was also very critical of her own party base:

Quote
The party leader called for decency: "It is not necessary for us to constantly deal with ourselves, that we have to talk about social-media postings that are offensive, racist and in any way Nazi-glorifying. Some postings are simply embarrassing because of the spelling mistakes, because we are at the same time the party that demands German courses for foreigners, which is part of the party program."

https://salzburg.orf.at/stories/3011801


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: parochial boy on September 07, 2019, 09:15:53 am
Gonna have to say that the Austrian attitude towards university education seems a lot healthier than the US/UK class-ridden obsession with overpromoting entitled rich kids from elite universities. A habit that would seem to play no small part in the current mess that both those countries are in.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2019, 09:26:14 am
The FP had their official campaign kickoff event today in Upper Austria @ a shopping mall, where both Hofer, Kickl and Haimbuchner delivered speeches to the crowd.

Apparently, Kickl's speech was extremely well-received by the crowd and got minutelong standing ovations:

()

()

()

https://www.krone.at/1992039


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2019, 11:05:51 am
The SP is proposing not only a comeback of their "20.000+" policy to employ 50+ aged long-term unemployed (under Chancellor Kern, then killed by VP-FP), but a general federal jobs guarantee for all long-term unemployed (currently some 100.000 of the more than 300.000 unemployed).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/spoe-will-jobgarantie-fuer-alle-langzeitarbeitslosen/400599110

Pretty good idea. I have supported this all along.

Kern's 20.000+ program also had a positive effect on lowering the number of long-term, old unemployed while he was in office (even though VP and SP disagree whether it was the program or the good economy at the time).

Anyway, it's good if old, long-term unemployed get some perspective again by being employed by the communities, doing office work, helping out with community work, school crossing guards etc. etc. - rather than being at home all day doing nothing and receiving unemployment/welfare money and waiting for retirement. It's about dignity.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2019, 02:58:52 pm
Another election tool with 34 questions in English:

https://www.voteswiper.org/en/austria/2019-austrian-legislative-election

I got KP, followed by Change, followed by the Greens.

NEOS last.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Hnv1 on September 07, 2019, 03:19:03 pm
Another election tool with 34 questions in English:

https://www.voteswiper.org/en/austria/2019-austrian-legislative-election

I got KP, followed by Change, followed by the Greens.

NEOS last.
I got FP followed by VP. Surprised as I would have voted for the NEOS who I got almost at the bottom


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2019, 12:46:21 am
New OGM federal election poll for the battleground state of Styria:

()

Styria 2017:

31.5% VP
29.6% FP
25.1% SP
  5.0% NEOS
  3.9% Jetzt
  2.8% Greens
  2.1% Others


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2019, 01:05:53 am
The Greens also had their campaign kickoff event in Vienna yesterday and frontrunner Werner Kogler got some help from German Green-leader Robert Habeck:

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2019, 12:29:17 pm
The FP is in deep trouble, with 3 weeks until the election:

()

Yesterday, the Neo-Nazi Identitarian Movement held a demonstration in Vienna to remember the 1683 defeat of the invading Turks at the gates of Vienna.

Among the torch-carrying marchers: Ursula Stenzel (FP-Vienna)

Ursula Stenzel is not just some random FP-member, but her story is telling.

In the 1990s, she was a prominent and highly reputable ORF journalist in Vienna's media schickeria (scene).

She went on to become a member of the EU parliament for the VP.

A couple years ago she switched to the FP and is now marching with the Neo-Nazis and gave a speech yesterday warning of "Islam invasion".

This comes after Norbert Hofer said that "it is unimageinable for me that someone from the FP is donating to or marching with the Identitarians." (see picture)

Stenzel has to report at Hofer's office tomorrow where further actions will be discussed.

She refuses to step down and calls the outcry "laughable".


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: The Saint on September 08, 2019, 12:34:42 pm
New OGM federal election poll for the battleground state of Styria:

Have there been other similar state-based polls for the federal election recently?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2019, 12:37:35 pm
New OGM federal election poll for the battleground state of Styria:

Have there been other similar state-based polls for the federal election recently?

Not individual ones like this.

But the weekly 24 polls (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=310336.msg6948355#msg6948355) usually have small sub-samples of 100-200 people for each state.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on September 08, 2019, 12:51:06 pm
New OGM federal election poll for the battleground state of Styria:

Have there been other similar state-based polls for the federal election recently?

Not individual ones like this.

But the weekly 24 polls (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=310336.msg6948355#msg6948355) usually have small sub-samples of 100-200 people for each state.

These sub-samples are listet here (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalratswahl_in_%C3%96sterreich_2019/Umfragen_und_Prognosen#Bundesl%C3%A4nder_(absteigend_nach_Bev%C3%B6lkerungszahl)).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2019, 11:08:15 am
The FP is in deep trouble, with 3 weeks until the election:

(...)

This comes after Norbert Hofer said that "it is unimageinable for me that someone from the FP is donating to or marching with the Identitarians." (see picture)

Stenzel has to report at Hofer's office tomorrow where further actions will be discussed.

She refuses to step down and calls the outcry "laughable".

Hofer said today he will stand by Stenzel and will not call for her resignation.

There goes any credibility that Hofer had ...

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/anger-after-austrian-politician-ursula-stenzel-with-jewish-roots-speaks-at-far-right-rally-1.488398

First he said "zero tolerance" when it comes to the Identitarians, now he doesn't mind it.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2019, 11:16:55 am
The Stenzel-affair also shows once again the absurdity of her job.

Stenzel is a so-called "Nicht-amtsfhrende Stadtrtin" in Vienna for the FP (= a city-council member without portfolio). Yes, this exists in Vienna.

A "city-council member without portfolio" is someone in the city government with a job in name only, who gets paid 9.000 a month 14x per year, without having to do anything.

Contrary to the city-council members with portfolio.

To get rid of these 5 useless posts, the Austrian (!) - not the Vienna - constitution needs to be changed with a 2/3 majority in both chambers of parliament.

Only in Austria ...

NEOS has now introduced a bill to get rid of Stenzel's job.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: President Johnson on September 09, 2019, 01:13:17 pm
The FP is in deep trouble, with 3 weeks until the election:

(...)

This comes after Norbert Hofer said that "it is unimageinable for me that someone from the FP is donating to or marching with the Identitarians." (see picture)

Stenzel has to report at Hofer's office tomorrow where further actions will be discussed.

She refuses to step down and calls the outcry "laughable".

Hofer said today he will stand by Stenzel and will not call for her resignation.

There goes any credibility that Hofer had ...

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/anger-after-austrian-politician-ursula-stenzel-with-jewish-roots-speaks-at-far-right-rally-1.488398

First he said "zero tolerance" when it comes to the Identitarians, now he doesn't mind it.

That's absolutely disgusting, but the FP will end up in a coalition with Mr. Kurz anyway.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2019, 01:27:01 pm
The FP is in deep trouble, with 3 weeks until the election:

(...)

This comes after Norbert Hofer said that "it is unimageinable for me that someone from the FP is donating to or marching with the Identitarians." (see picture)

Stenzel has to report at Hofer's office tomorrow where further actions will be discussed.

She refuses to step down and calls the outcry "laughable".

Hofer said today he will stand by Stenzel and will not call for her resignation.

There goes any credibility that Hofer had ...

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/anger-after-austrian-politician-ursula-stenzel-with-jewish-roots-speaks-at-far-right-rally-1.488398

First he said "zero tolerance" when it comes to the Identitarians, now he doesn't mind it.

That's absolutely disgusting, but the FP will end up in a coalition with Mr. Kurz anyway.

Right now, it seems as if no coalition at all can be formed.

The VP is really pissed at the FP and SP right now and the Greens do not want to govern with the VP.

Tricky.

But its election campaign and we have to wait and see.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DL on September 09, 2019, 01:47:07 pm
Could the OVP form a minority government if there is no coalition partner for them? Or is Austria like Germany in terms of minority gov't being "verboten"?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2019, 11:26:57 pm
Could the OVP form a minority government if there is no coalition partner for them? Or is Austria like Germany in terms of minority gov't being "verboten"?

They could, but it wouldn't work for more than a few days or weeks.

There is too much hate against the VP from all the left-wing parties and even the FP wouldn't tolerate them for long. Once there's some FP scandal again, the VP would call for big consequences for them and the FP parliamentarians would revoke their support for tolerating the VP. It would definitely need a formal coalition contract to keep them together.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2019, 11:31:31 pm
VP's parliamentary group leader August Wginger has created a firestorm recently at a campaign speech in his Upper Austria.

He said to the crowd in a patriarchal manner:

Quote
"It cannot be that our children go to Vienna (to study etc.) and come back as Greens. If someone eats and sleeps in our homes, they have to vote VP !"

https://diepresse.com/home/meinung/marginalien/5687101/Die-Angst-der-OeVP-vor-dem-verlorenen-Sohn


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 11, 2019, 11:10:57 am
IMAD federal election poll for Tyrol:

37.6% VP (-0.8% compared with 2017)
19.4% FP (-5.7%)
17.8% SP (-3.0%)
13.6% Greens (+9.1%)
  8.3% NEOS (+2.6%)
  3.3% Others (-2.2%)

Most important issues for Tyrol voters on Sept. 29:

58% climate/environment
48% traffic/transit
38% education
38% finances/budget
35% migration/integration

https://www.krone.at/1992029

I think this is the 1st poll ever showing the VP dropping compared with 2017.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2019, 11:02:08 am
New 24 poll: VP+FP losing.

()

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190912_OTS0198/oesterreich-umfrage-oevp-und-fpoe-verlieren-neos-legen-zu

---

Another poll today, with a much larger sample of 3.000 people (Karmasin/Puls 24 weekly tracking poll), shows almost the exact same numbers:

35% VP
22% SP (+1)
19% FP (-1)
12% Greens
  9% NEOS
  2% NOW (+1)
  1% Others (-1)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108559530/karmasin-umfrage-sieht-spoe-drei-prozentpunkte-vor-fpoe


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Temporarily Embarrassed Millionaire on September 12, 2019, 11:17:04 am
why is JETZT gaining slightly? obviously it won't be enough to pass the threshold, but it is odd.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: bigic on September 12, 2019, 11:18:34 am
why is JETZT gaining slightly? obviously it won't be enough to pass the threshold, but it is odd.
The gain is probably within the margin of error.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2019, 11:23:18 am
why is JETZT gaining slightly? obviously it won't be enough to pass the threshold, but it is odd.
The gain is probably within the margin of error.

Not sure if they are really gaining, but Peter Pilz is a really clever and skilled debater.

During the recent TV debates and duels with Kurz he strongly attacked the former Kurzzeit-Chancellor (= short period Chancellor) on all his campaign finance and shredding scandals and inconsistencies, his ties to the not-so-patriotic FP and ruled out as the only party leader a coalition with Kurz.

Pilz said: "If you vote VP, you get Kurz. If you vote SP, FP, Greens or NEOS, you will get Kurz. If you vote for us, you can be sure that we are not jumping into bed with Kurz. We are the only real opposition."


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2019, 11:44:12 am
Immigration/integration/asylum not even in the TOP-5 of the most important issues any longer for Austrians voting in the federal election on Sept. 29:




Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: urutzizu on September 12, 2019, 12:19:23 pm
Immigration/integration/asylum not even in the TOP-5 of the most important issues any longer for Austrians voting in the federal election on Sept. 29:




Will this harm the FP? It does seem that unlike certain other far-right parties, namely the AFD, that the FP actually has some competency in the eyes of the public on other issues, such as Taxation.

Also why is Corruption so low? Ibiza was the whole reason for this election. Have the public forgotten about it?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2019, 03:15:38 pm
Immigration/integration/asylum not even in the TOP-5 of the most important issues any longer for Austrians voting in the federal election on Sept. 29:



Will this harm the FP? It does seem that unlike certain other far-right parties, namely the AFD, that the FP actually has some competency in the eyes of the public on other issues, such as Taxation.

Also why is Corruption so low? Ibiza was the whole reason for this election. Have the public forgotten about it?

Well, even without immigration being an important topic in this election the FP still has a loyal base of at least 15-17%, which will vote for them no matter what as a protest option.

It is certainly keeping a few voters away from them though who would have voted for them if immigration were more of a topic.

Corruption is probably not ranked higher as an important topic because voters think there was no actual corruption taking place.

Voters think Strache might have been a fool and stupid by what he said on Ibiza, but no real corruption has taken place. Voters have certainly not forgotten Ibiza, but now other bread and butter topics like healthcare, old age care and taxes/wages and affordable housing are more important.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2019, 11:26:23 am
Today, 3 parties (FP, VP, Greens) have released new campaign posters and the SP has released their 160-page election program:


Hofer poster: "VP-Green is dangerous for YOUR future. Better for Austria: x FP"

Kickl poster: "Without us, Kurz is tipping over to the LEFT. Stop illegals, protect borders."

()

"Providing clarity. Vote Kurz. Austria needs his Chancellor !"

()

"If you want Kurz, vote Kurz. Austria needs his Chancellor !"



#Comeback: Climate Proection/Clean Politics. Back to the Greens on Sept. 29th !

and "Vote the Greens back in !"

SP election platform:

https://www.spoe.at/wp-content/uploads/sites/739/2019/09/Wahlprogramm.pdf


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2019, 11:37:25 am
Tomorrow, we are getting another mega-poll with a sample of 3.000 people - a joint one for ATV, newspaper "Heute" and political magazine "Profil". It will also survey turnout.

Also, Vienna has launched an online election information platform for young and first-time voters (16+), called "Go vote. (https://www.wienxtra.at/jugendliche/geh-waehlen)" The city will also send a brochure (https://www.wienxtra.at/fileadmin/web/jugendinfo/Beratung/Broschren/Du_entscheidest.pdf) to 16-17 year old first-time voters and employ their own social media youth reporters, which will be active on Instagram and other social media sites to answer their questions (young people these days hardly watch TV or read newspapers).

https://www.wien.gv.at/presse/2019/09/13/gemma-waehlen-stadt-wien-motiviert-junge-wienerinnen-ihr-wahlrecht-zu-nutzen


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2019, 11:46:54 am
Yesterday, the TV debate of party youth representatives took place on the ORF and their debate was much more civilized than the debates of the actual party frontrunners we have already seen:


5/6 are current members of parliament between the ages of 20-35 and one (Sigi Maurer, Greens) was an MP between 2013-17 and will be elected again in two weeks.

https://tvthek.orf.at/profile/Runde-der-JungpolitikerInnen/13890806/Wahl-19-Politik-live-Runde-der-JungpolitikerInnen/14025678


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2019, 12:21:45 pm
There is now a #NeverKurz movement (long-time VP voters who are not voting VP in this election). They are called #ConservativesWithDecency:





Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2019, 12:33:23 pm
New campaign videos from the small, leftist party "Wandel" (Change):

"I pay more taxes than Starbucks."




"Flying at higher game."




They have a campaign budget of just 10.000 (!), but their ads are not much worse in quality than the ones from the big parties.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2019, 12:52:34 pm
Tomorrow, Norbert Hofer will be officially elected party chair of the FP and frontrunner at a convention in Graz.

Today, Hofer posted a private letter to H.C. Strache - thanking him and not throwing him under the bus:

Quote
Dear Heinz-Christian!

We have known each other for almost 15 years. It was one of the blackest hours of the Freedom Movement in which we met. After the split-off of Jrg Haider with the BZ you had the courage to assemble the remaining upright freedomites behind you. It was not many who had the courage to collaborate with you on rebuilding a fallen party at polls of three percent. One of them was me.

With your enthusiasm, dedication and willingness to just not give up, you've rekindled the fire of freedom. Hardly anyone has given the reconstruction of the FP without Jrg Haider and with a Heinz-Christian Strache at the top a great chance of success. The media have written us off as well as the political competition has smiled at us. The rise of the FP in the episode reminds me of my own life story after my paraglider crash in 2003. Even then the doctors in the first diagnosis gave me almost no chance to live without a wheelchair. At that time, I had only a small spark of hope, but I firmly believed in it and worked hard every day in rehabilitation so I could put my wheelchair in the corner and stand on my own two feet again.

You too did not give up, and within a very short time the FP was already able to celebrate respectable results at parish, state and federal levels. You have proved to the critics that the FP has a future even without Jrg Haider. Under your leadership, the FP hastened from electoral success to electoral success - because you believed in it. Your belief in me was ultimately the reason that I let myself be persuaded to run for the office of Federal President. From my minimum goal, to achieve a respectable result (albeit without a chance of a runoff election), became the biggest election success in the history of the FP. Over two million people have turned their backs on a candidate of the FP.

The cut in the Federal Presidential election has also shown something: The FP has many faces. The FP without Jrg Haider is not viable, they said back then. You, dear Heinz-Christian, have proven the opposite. An FP without Heinz-Christian Strache was possible until a few months ago - now I am about to take over the party. I do this with great respect and humility. As one who has accompanied you for 15 years now, I know how much work it takes to lead a party successfully.

Dear Heinz-Christian! On behalf of the Freedom family, I would like to express my gratitude to you. This is especially true for the 1 years of our participation in government, where not least because of your obstinacy many long-standing freedomite demands were implemented to the benefit of the Austrian population. We know what you have done for the FP, for Austria, for the whole country and its people. We know how much heart and soul you put into the work for our beautiful home. Your commitment has always been a role model for many of us.

I promise you and also the delegates at tomorrow's Federal Party Congress in Graz: We will continue the successful path.

Yours, Norbert.

https://www.facebook.com/1650580648552563/posts/2462978470646106


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2019, 11:43:27 pm
Here is a selection of campaign posters from all 8 parties running nationwide:



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2019, 11:58:54 pm
Over the next 2 weeks until the election, parliament will meet 3 times and pass some 40 new laws and amendments.

Among them a constitutional deficit and debt brake (which VP+FP+NEOS already approved with a 2/3 majority in committee, but it will fail in the 2nd chamber of parliament because SP+Greens have a blocking minority there).

Other topics include a jobs offensive for long-term old unemployed, better animal rights, an amendment to ensure more blood donations, that the 13./14. wages are enshrined in the constitution, a 3.6% pension increase for 2020 etc. etc.

Almost Swiss-style democracy that works. This flood of new laws would not be possible under a formal coalition.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2019, 06:09:17 am
Tomorrow, we are getting another mega-poll with a sample of 3.000 people - a joint one for ATV, newspaper "Heute" and political magazine "Profil". It will also survey turnout.

Here it is:

()

Good news: the Greens are at 13%, the highest level ever (15% with Pilz). The Left-Liberal bloc is at 47% (of which 4% are wasted votes) is also at a record-high, VP-FP at a low.

Bad news: turnout is only projected at 72% certain voters (2017 turnout: 80%).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2019, 06:28:10 am
The new OGM/Kurier poll has better news for VP/FP and for turnout (77% certain voters, which is where it should be at this point):

()

Only 9% of those polled are still undecided.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/grosse-kurier-umfrage-oevp-liegt-stabil-bei-35-vor-spoe-mit-22/400605341


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on September 14, 2019, 06:37:21 am
It's not that bad when you add some of 8+9



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2019, 06:39:04 am

The thing is that those who rate themselves as an 8 or 9 on that scale are almost never voting ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2019, 06:46:48 am
Norbert Hofer was just officially elected new FP party leader with 98.3% support of the 1.000 or so delegates at their Graz convention - succeeding H.C. Strache after 14 years as party leader.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2019, 12:15:47 pm
Two new good cop, bad cop posters from the FP:

()

()

Two with unwavering support for YOU.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2019, 12:57:39 pm
Kickls aggressive speech at the FP convention today received a lot of scrutiny afterwards.

Among other things, Kickl attacked the Greens as the party of bans and called party leader Kogler an alcoholic.

He said if Hofers moderate behaviour will not convince his opponents, Kickl will be ready as some sort of boxer and deliver the knockout punch.

And he coined the new phrase Triple A (AAA), for Aggressive Afghan Asylum seekers - which he will would downgrade to zero.

Laughter and applause from the FP delegates.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2019, 03:53:17 pm
Kickl also coined a new phrase for immigrant rapists today:

Facharbeiter fr das Hantieren unter der Grtellinie

Dont know if I can translate it properly into English, but something like:

Skilled workers for handling things below the waistline

... which of course is a reference to all the skilled surgeons and engineers that Merkel let into Europe and then ended up as criminals, terrorists, or on welfare.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 15, 2019, 03:08:04 am
So, the VP announced a week ago that their servers were hacked and 1300 gigabytes of data were stolen.

The other parties doubted the hack and Peter Pilz called it a distraction maneuver from their other scandals.

Today, it emerged that IT specialists working for the VP on that matter say that they have traced the attackers and they are apparently in ... France.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/erste-spur-in-hacker-affaere-um-oevp-zentrale-fuehrt-nach-frankreich/400605980


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Omega21 on September 16, 2019, 09:51:47 am
In Vienna, 8 People are being charged with corruption, among them a prominent Green Party figure.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/8-Beschuldigte-in-Wiener-Korruptionskrimi/397634285


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 16, 2019, 10:56:08 am
In Vienna, 8 People are being charged with corruption, among them a prominent Green Party figure.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/8-Beschuldigte-in-Wiener-Korruptionskrimi/397634285

Someone (= SP, VP, FP, NEOS) has apparently seen that the resurgent Greens could win Vienna in 2 weeks, therefore they are now placing this investigation rather than waiting for after the election to blunt their momentum ...

I wouldn't say that the Greens are totally innocent though, Corherr and the real estate dealings certainly had potential for some corruption. But this Vassilakou team has been replaced last year and now other people are in charge.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: DL on September 16, 2019, 03:36:39 pm
A prominent SP-unionist has called billionaire and multimillion VP-donor Heidi Horten a "heavily botoxed lady with her 2 million necklace on".

()

Judging from that picture...he has a point


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 17, 2019, 10:58:24 am
The List Pilz/Now will introduce an emergency motion in parliament next week that would ban a comeback of Sebastian Kurz as Chancellor or any other former members of his government.

They argue that members of a government that was ousted by parliament in an impeachment/no-confidence-vote should never be able to return.

For this thing to pass, a 2/3 majority is needed - as it would change the constitution. The VP currently has 61/183 seats. 122 are needed for it to pass.

In other words: if all 61 VP MPs are present and voting against, then ALL other 122 members of parliament would also have to be present and vote in favour.

https://www.sn.at/politik/nationalratswahl-2019/jetzt-beantragt-rueckkehr-verbot-fuer-kurz-in-regierung-76324156

In Germany and other countries this is already the case: after a successful no-confidence-vote, a new Chancellor has to be elected.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 17, 2019, 11:07:52 am
Experts say that for the first time since WW2, polls are not showing a match for Chancellor and 1st place and that this fact is demobilizing voters in the final stretch.

Bad for turnout.

It would be better if the VP were to drop at least to 30% in the next week and the SP rising to some 25-26% so that the media could at least talk about a Chancellor Match again.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: urutzizu on September 17, 2019, 11:11:30 am
In Germany and other countries this is already the case: after a successful no-confidence-vote, a new Chancellor has to be elected.

No, not at all. We have a constructive vote of no-confidence, meaning that a alternative chancellor needs a majority for it to succeed, but that is something completely different, and had that existed in Austria, Kurz would have not been ousted in the first place. But there is no ban on former chancellors serving again, and frankly that seems like an extremely undemocratic idea, pushed by Pilz because they know Kurz is going to win. Alfred Noll, the guy claiming this in the article, is blatantly lying .


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 17, 2019, 11:18:33 am
In Germany and other countries this is already the case: after a successful no-confidence-vote, a new Chancellor has to be elected.

No, not at all. We have a constructive vote of no-confidence, meaning that a alternative chancellor needs a majority for it to succeed, but that is something completely different, and had that existed in Austria, Kurz would have not been ousted in the first place. But there is no ban on former chancellors serving again, and frankly that seems like an extremely undemocratic idea, pushed by Pilz because they know Kurz is going to win. Alfred Noll, the guy claiming this in the article, is blatantly lying .

Of course this is mostly done by Pilz because of the election campaign, but it is also legitimate to ask if someone who was ousted by parliament should be able to return as Chancellor ... ?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Good Habit on September 17, 2019, 11:31:36 am
Quote from: Tender Branson link=topic=310336.msg6970399#msg6970399
...  but it is also legitimate to ask if someone who was ousted by parliament should be able to return as Chancellor ... ?

obviously yes, this is the way of parliamentary democracy.. If someone doesn't  have the confidence of the (outgoing) parliament, but wins the confidence of the voters (by winning the next election), and is thus able to get confidence from the new parliament, he must have the right to serve again... everything else would be anti-democratic, its the people that choose parliament, and not parliament that chooses the people...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 17, 2019, 11:34:17 am
The FP will be out tomorrow with a funny new TV ad, where a Green chick wants to pick up Sebastian Kurz (who is sitting in a bar) as her lover ...


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Omega21 on September 17, 2019, 11:35:00 am
Quote from: Tender Branson link=topic=310336.msg6970399#msg6970399
...  but it is also legitimate to ask if someone who was ousted by parliament should be able to return as Chancellor ... ?

obviously yes, this is the way of parliamentary democracy.. If someone doesn't  have the confidence of the (outgoing) parliament, but wins the confidence of the voters (by winning the next election), and is thus able to get confidence from the new parliament, he must have the right to serve again... everything else would be anti-democratic, its the people that choose parliament, and not parliament that chooses the people...

Hear hear!


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: urutzizu on September 17, 2019, 11:54:58 am
Of course this is mostly done by Pilz because of the election campaign, but it is also legitimate to ask if someone who was ousted by parliament should be able to return as Chancellor ... ?

Well, unequivocally Yes, they should. A vote of no confidence is a political judgment by parliamentarians who have partisan motivations. One could make the argument that someone with a criminal conviction by court should not be allowed to run, but being voted out by parliament does not mean that you have done something illicit or bad. It means that Parliament does not like you or what you have done.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2019, 11:27:19 am
New "Market" poll for "Weekend Magazine":

()


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on September 18, 2019, 11:48:32 am
Tender, you are still required, just as everybody else, to provide proper attribution showing the images you post are free for use, per Dave's directive. Just so you know I'll be deleting all unsourced pictures, sans for polling graphics and electoral posters.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: mileslunn on September 18, 2019, 06:23:13 pm
What is the most likely coalition?  Looks like Grand coalition or OVP-FPO could be done, but not sure Kurz wants either.  OVP-Greens might work but could the ideological differences be too large?  Other possibility is an OVP-Greens-NEOS (unless polls are massively off it looks like OVP-NEOS probably easiest to form won't have the numbers).


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 19, 2019, 10:34:47 am
What is the most likely coalition?  Looks like Grand coalition or OVP-FPO could be done, but not sure Kurz wants either.  OVP-Greens might work but could the ideological differences be too large?  Other possibility is an OVP-Greens-NEOS (unless polls are massively off it looks like OVP-NEOS probably easiest to form won't have the numbers).

No coalition is particularly likely right now.

My guess would be a 30% chance each for VP-FP (higher without Kickl as cabinet member) and VP-Greens-NEOS. 15% chance for VP-SP, 5% for others and a 20% chance for new elections after everything fails.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 19, 2019, 10:38:26 am
Tender, you are still required, just as everybody else, to provide proper attribution showing the images you post are free for use, per Dave's directive. Just so you know I'll be deleting all unsourced pictures, sans for polling graphics and electoral posters.

Sure, but where did I post them ?

I see you deleted a picture from the youth politician debate from the public ORF, which is not copyrighted. The ORF content is free to view and use (at least for Austrians).

Therefore I would say that you should not delete ORF pictures in the future.

I also think a picture of Norbert Hofer from the FP page was deleted, which is also free for all to use.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 19, 2019, 12:26:58 pm
2 new polls today:

Research Affairs/24

()

Karmasin Research & Identity/Puls24



"Do you rate the following coalitions as (very) negative or (very) positive ?"



Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 19, 2019, 12:39:35 pm
It's very likely that the Greens have peaked, because of the breaking mini-scandal in Vienna - where their former city-council member for urban planning, Christoph Chorherr, is in some trouble for accepting donations from wealthy investors for a fund to help with education etc. in Africa in return for favourable building contracts in Vienna.

Chorherr suspended his Green membership today, after several Greens asked him to do so.

This and the hateful encounter of VP's Kurz and SP's Rendi-Wagner yesterday at the ORF debate ("duel") could still alter the polls in the final week, as could the elephant debates with all lead candidates.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Parliamentary Election: 29 September 2019)
Post by: Lord Halifax on September 19, 2019, 01:32:38 pm
Tender if you had to guess what percentage of the vote would you expect each party to end up with?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Strache & Kurz out, new election: 29.9.)
Post by: Kutasoff Hedzoff on September 19, 2019, 01:58:07 pm
Tender, you are still required, just as everybody else, to provide proper attribution showing the images you post are free for use, per Dave's directive. Just so you know I'll be deleting all unsourced pictures, sans for polling graphics and electoral posters.

Sure, but where did I post them ?

I see you deleted a picture from the youth politician debate from the public ORF, which is not copyrighted. The ORF content is free to view and use (at least for Austrians).

Therefore I would say that you should not delete ORF pictures in the future.

I also think a picture of Norbert Hofer from the FP page was deleted, which is also free for all to use.

And you should've attributed it as such. I'll remove infraction for this one, but in the future I'm not going to be checking every unsourced image.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Parliamentary Election: 29 September 2019)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 19, 2019, 03:10:14 pm
Tender if you had to guess what percentage of the vote would you expect each party to end up with?

33-35% VP
23-25% SP
20-22% FP
10-12% Greens
  8-10% NEOS
    2-3% Now
    1-2% KP + Change


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Parliamentary Election: 29 September 2019)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 19, 2019, 11:21:53 pm
In yesterdays session of parliament, many important laws were passed:

# VP-FPs original tax reform/cut
# a pension increase of 3.6% for 2020
# easier blood donations
# Austrian citizenship for relatives of former Nazi victims living abroad
# a vote of solidarity to protect the rainforest
# more investment into prevention of violence against women
# a digital tax on online revenue generated by large corporations such as Google
# a re-organization of the local tax, fraud and customs offices to just 4
# more money to invest in old long-term unemployed
# sharper protections and penalties against animal transports

https://www.ots.at/pressemappe/172/pressedienst-der-parlamentsdirektion-parlamentskorrespondenz

Some 30 more laws will be passed next week just ahead of the election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Parliamentary Election: 29 September 2019)
Post by: mileslunn on September 20, 2019, 12:54:54 am
In yesterdays session of parliament, many important laws were passed:

# VP-FPs original tax reform/cut
# a pension increase of 3.6% for 2020
# easier blood donations
# Austrian citizenship for relatives of former Nazi victims living abroad
# a vote of solidarity to protect the rainforest
# more investment into prevention of violence against women
# a digital tax on online revenue generated by large corporations such as Google
# a re-organization of the local tax, fraud and customs offices to just 4
# more money to invest in old long-term unemployed
# sharper protections and penalties against animal transports

https://www.ots.at/pressemappe/172/pressedienst-der-parlamentsdirektion-parlamentskorrespondenz

Some 30 more laws will be passed next week just ahead of the election.

Wow, they can do this.  Here in Canada, they are not allowed to pass laws once campaign starts, just a caretaker government.  Very interesting as I assumed during campaign they would ban passing laws so government cannot use legislation for its advantage.  Mind you in Austria you usually have coalitions whereas we are usually majority governments, but still kind of surprised this is permitted.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Parliamentary Election: 29 September 2019)
Post by: Walmart_shopper on September 20, 2019, 05:27:55 am
What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Parliamentary Election: 29 September 2019)
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 20, 2019, 09:15:22 am
What appears to be the most likely coalition given where polls are and what people are saying? Will the Greens get in?

The way how it's been framed is that no working majority, right now, can be found. All govts:

- OVP + FPO: Kurz doesn't want to be seen as falling right back into their arms after ending the govt, even though the FPO are all for it. He'll no doubt insist on the demands made previously to shackle FPO influence, which might not be so hot to them.
- OVP + SPO: SPO, as the main opposition party doesn't want to enter govt after losing votes at the polls, even though their previous result was a soft result from green defections. SPO also would prefer not to let FPO be the opposition. This is ignoring the obvious ideological differences.
- OVP + NEOS + Greens: Greens have so far refused advances to enter an OVP govt nationally, even though NEOS is all for supporting Kurz.
-SPO +  Greens + NEOS: lacks majority
-SPO + FPO: Lacks majority
-FPO + Greens + NEOS: lacks majority and has fierce ideological differences.

So someone needs to bend after the election.


Title: Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Parliamentary Election: 29 September 2019)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 20, 2019, 12:18:01 pm