Talk Elections

Here is my source: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/1/2/1823052/-Kentucky-Republicans-wonder-if-unpopular-governor-will-pull-plug-on-re-election-bid

Personally, I don't believe it. I think he's still going to run and win.

I am shocked, shocked I tell you, that one of America's most unpopular governors might be withdrawing from a reelection. I mean, what reason would he have to withdraw? What does one of America's most unpopular governors see as threatening to his reelection chances?

I don't believe it, but this is very logical that one of the most unpopular US governors will retire

He’s running for the 2020 senate seat if he withdraws because he and McConnell had a feud with each other since 2013

And lose to McConnell again?

His internal poll numbers must be terrible.

Beshear will be the next governor😊

If he withdraws, then the race goes from tilt R to likely R.  After what happened in Oklahoma, I don't think Beshear can pull it off unless he runs against Bevin.

I highly doubt this will happen.

Yep, popularity is heavily correlated with election performance. It really is Bevin being massively unpopular that is making this race highly competitive(same reason the very popular JBE is favored for his race in inelastic R territory).

He should primary Mitch, who has to go as Republican leader. He is one of the most disgusting leaders in senate history. Not than Bevin will be less of an idiot, but at least Mitch wouldn't be leader anymore.

If he withdraws, who is next in the Republican line? Can't see them ceding this race.

It doesn't matter whether Bevin withdraws or not. Kentucky will go Republican no matter what.

And the 8 point lead has nothing to do with it? KY is tilting Democratic, Beshear's father was popular.

You were very overconfident about Democratic chances in Republican states this year. Kentucky is not voting Democratic any time soon, not for Governor, not for Senate, and not for any other office.

I always stated there is a freiwal of 279 votes; however Dems won Congressional elections in states like FL, AZ that went GOP for Governor.

If anything, Kentucky is trending R.   I agree with you that the Beshear name will help him, but that can only take you so far.  The fact that Jason Carter was the son of one of Georgia's political icons helped him... lose by 12%.

But your point is still valid

The only reason Bevin withdraws from this race is to primary McConnell in 2020.

If Bevin Withdraws, Comer and Quarles probably become the top candidates for the Republicans

I personally don't believe that Bevin is trailing by 8 points. I don't think he's trailing AT ALL.

Wouldn't be too shocked if this happened. Other unpopular first-term governors (Bill Walker, Chafee) have done it. Rauner tried to do the same this year after his close primary against Jeanne Ives. In hindsight, the ILGOP might have been better off if he'd been replaced on the ballot.

I think it would be in his party's best interest for him to not run, especially since he has a -25 net approval rating in Morning Consult's 3Q2018 report on governors, which would definitely drag him down significantly should he run.

like beto was ment to be the next senator of texas?

TX is a Trump state and is a GOP state. But, Dems did well enough in suburban districts in Red states to take over the House.  Democrats get elected statewide in KY. Beshear's father was Gov of Red state.

Yes please Bevin, primary Cocaine Mitch and lose by 15. So then Andy can win too.
Thanks.

In all seriousness, I appreciate a challenge to Mitch, but Bevin, while he isn't Mitch, is a moron. Also he would lose.

Honestly, Andy would be better off against an incredibly unpopular incumbent than against a generic R.

Will people not learn from Bredesen?  This race is Likely R with or without Bevin.

Yeah, the Democratic nominee only has a chance against Bevin imo. If Bevin isn't the GOP nominee, the GOP will win this race.

Bredesen was a flawed candidate and Blackburn is more popular than Bevin

Depending on whom they nominate to succeed him, the Kentucky Republican Party will be better off with him out of the race. 

If Bevin drops out, this race becomes Titanium R.

Your source is literally a Daily Kos diary? And people here are taking it seriously? lol

But on the 0.001% chance this is true, Bevin is an even bigger idiot than I thought he was. Racist KY Hicks are going to re-elect him no matter what because of the (R) next to his name. I'm pretty sure even he is smart enough to realize this.

Don't forget Edmondson!

Agreed


Most likely yes


Bredesen was actually by far the best candidate the Democrats had in Tennessee imo tbh. On the other hand I agree with you that Blackburn is more popular and a stronger candidate than Bevin is.

Also Senate races are different from gubernatorial ones.

Though becoming increasingly less so. Kansas was the only "Safe Republican" state where Democrats won the governorship in 2018. They fell short in Oklahoma and South Dakota, and also lost in Ohio, Iowa, and Florida, which are becoming increasingly Republican. In fact, Ohio is pretty close to being a Safe Republican state at this point, and will become one after a few more cycles at the presidential level, while Florida, though a swing state, has been consistently Republican-leaning since the 1950s.

I did not forget about him. And you are right: Kentucky is Safe Republican.

What exactly is so different from this and Louisiana's gov race in 2015?   Except for Vitter not being an incumbent it could easily play out the same way.   

Popularity matters WAY more for Governor races than Senate races - See Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Louisiana, and Vermont. 

polarization . The only R pvi governor race the dems one this year was kansas and thats in a d trending state with a super unpopular governor.

Trump just has to endorse Bevin and campaign once and its over.

Safe R -> Safe R

Another piece potentially enters the board...

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1082354000475971584

Not saying you're wrong in Kentucky's per se, but governors races don't work the same way in most cases as Senate races. Just look at Kansas and Massachusetts for example.

If he doesn't run: Lean R -> Safe R

Agreed

That's what everyone said about Oklahoma a few months ago when I insisted it was safe R, and everyone ridiculed me and said it was clearly a toss up because "muh gubernatorial races are different!" and "muh Fallin 10% approval!"

Run, Bevin, Run!

He'll probably still win, but at least it would give us a chance

A chance at losing by only single digits.

Probably - yes. Bevin is unpopular, but national Democratic party brand is unpopular in Kentucky too.

Not really. Much of the positions held in the state are by Democrats, and many Democrats have won in rather deep Trump territory. While the brand probably isnt that popular, I doubt its thatbad, otherwise many of these Dems, both newly elected and old guard, would have not been in their current position.

AFAIK, many of these Democrats differ substantially from national party on many social issues (abortions, guns, and so on).

Not really. The top Dems, such as Beshar, have pretty standard positions, and many Democrats in the state house and senate, who occupy hard R territory, have pretty standard D positions(one is even an uber-progressive).

Nevertheless i am absolutely sure, that substantial number of Democrats in state legislature are socially conservative (fewer, then in the past, because many were replaced by Republicans, but still - many).

The KY House is 63% Republican and the KY Senate is 71% Republican. Clearly whatever residual strength Democrats had outside their base there is rapidly dwindling.

Bevin gets a primary challenger (https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article224031215.html?link_id=12&can_id=4a538b99ca03a0c2cc19f017353635e9&source=email-morning-digest-supreme-court-wont-block-order-to-redraw-virginias-gop-state-house-gerrymander&email_referrer=email_475446&email_subject=morning-digest-supreme-court-wont-block-order-to-redraw-virginias-gop-state-house-gerrymander)

And as clearly - without running candidates with crossover (far beyond "base") appeal Democrats can't win statewide. Exactly because this reason.

I’d donate to him if he primaries McConnell because that mofo has got to go.

Kentucky is too far gone no matter who the Democrats run. It was a miracle they held on as long as they did, but their luck has finally run out.

Yeah, that's why Democrats picked up 8 seats in the state Senate this year that Trump won with 80%+. I really wouldn't be so confident, if I were you.

If it's so predetermined - what interest to discuss it (election in Kentucky)  at all? We all know, that Repulican candidate here will be right-winger, and IF his election is "guaranteed" - forget about this election and move on.

The same thing happened in Oklahoma, no?

I wouldn't be discussing it if everyone would just accept it's safe R. There's a reason why I posted 1000x more often about Marsha Blackburn's inevitability than John Barrasso's inevitability.

It’s as safe R as AL-SEN and WV-SEN, right?

No, it's a toss up like TN-Sen, ND-Sen, and OK-Gov because polarization doesn't exist and red states love electing Democrats. ;)

Also, I acknowledged my Racist Hick Theorem needed more work a long time ago and rated WV-Sen as a toss up, which ended up being much closer to the mark than all the "Likely D/Manchin easily wins by double digits" predictions which were so prevalent here. AL-Sen led to the pedophilia disclaimer, which I'm pretty sure does not apply to Bevin. Mind models get better and better the more data you have!

no?we actually lost a ton of dixiecrat seats, iirc

I didn't follow them closely, but I remember a lot of people here jerking off to the fact that Democrats were winning lots of Trump landslide districts in Oklahoma special elections. This was also used as justification for why Edmondson could/would win.

 I think the point is that dems actually picked up some super trumpy seats this year during Novembor in the kentucky state house.

I think the Democrats could take back the KY Governorship with the right candidate and the right campaign.  The Democrats in Kentucky, at a local level, are not as decimated as, say, the Democrats in West Virginia or Arkansas.

I also wonder if McConnell won't covertly help the Democrats in order to eliminate Bevin, who is clearly a rival, not just as a primary challenger, but as the top Republican in the State.  Normally, the Governor is at the top rung of Kentucky politics, but Kentucky's Senators have immense prominence right now, so the Governor isn't the leader of his party in the way past Governors have been. 

Bevin is much like Rick Scott; he's not real likable, but he is wealthy, can self-fund, and has a coherent record focused on a few issues that resonate with who they need to resonate with.  Scott, as well, was an underdog for re-election in 2014, and look at him now.  Bevin could lose, but he has more going for him than any Democrat right now when you factor in the advantages of being the incumbent.

Grimes not running for Governor or anything else.

https://twitter.com/AlisonForKY/status/1087378586703675394

Matt Bevin dropped Lt. Governor Jeanne Hampton in favor of State Senator Ralph Alvarado: https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article225085955.html

I'm not too surprised to see Bevin is running again. For anyone more knowledgable of KY politics than me -- is there any reason Bevin decided to pick a new Lt Gov running mate this time?

Why?

Apparently he wants to mend relationships with the republicans in the state senate

Inb4 IceSpear says "HES TRYING TO APPEAL TO MUH RACIST HICKS"

Bevin continues to be an idiot. (https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/427605-kentucky-governor-rips-schools-closing-due-to-low-temperatures)

lol . Picking a black women than a hispanic man. The dems might have a slight chance if they go after the hispanic man. They could atleast win Elliot then.

What evidence is there that Elliot County is MORE racist than any other rural county in KY?

The primary profession in Elliott is probably prison guard, I don't know if that makes them more or less racist than their neighbors.  Though EKY is filled with prisons.

Just saying, Elliott enjoys this pedestal of being a "Deplorable™" place on this forum, and it consistently receives more negative attention from lefties and independents than other rural Kentucky counties that have been Republican WAY longer and, you know, didn't vote for a Black man twice.  I find that completely nonsensical, LOL.

I haven't seen this hate? But if your point is true, it is probably it is the most recent to snap away from dems, and lefties are still mad.

im not
Im just saying Elliot is the only coal county winnable

Trying to keep the state warm with his hot takes.

https://youtu.be/qiGK3imYA8Q

When Al Roker calls you out, you know you done said something stupid