Talk Elections

Profit über alles, folks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-06/bolsonaro-blasts-lewd-carnival-scene-in-tweet-igniting-brazil?srnd=markets-vp


Not gonna link the video, but it's still on there.

Bolsonaro's doing everything he can to be the worst post-military regime-era "leader" of Brazil, and this is the latest evidence of it.

LOL, the guy got what he deserved. But was still better than Bolsonaro.

Captain Obvious strikes again.

Wasn't our beloved Fernie Color of Melon also investigated? What happened to that?

I am stunned that a PMDB politician could be less than morally scrupulous!

Let's also remember Temer is a world-class creep, marrying a 20-years old when he already was 63.

Bolsoñaro’s support crashes to Trump levels (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll/popularity-of-bolsonaro-government-plummets-in-brazil-ibope-poll-idUSKCN1R12RW)
Is this a faster collapse than Macron or Macri?

Also lol that he is net positive with Evangelicals.

Could somebody tell me what's the situation within the Congress? Which parties partake in/support Bolsonaro's government and what are the numbers between the government and the opposition? The wiki is pretty useless on this.

It is very hard to update the stupid things Jair Bolsonaro, his kids and his ministers told/did. They do something stupid everyday.

Today, during the visit to the Museum of Holocaust in Israel, Bolsonaro told that national socialism was left-wing. It was written in the Museum that national socialism was a far right movement. Last year, the german ambassador in Brazil told that there is no debate about this topic in Germany: it is a consensus that national socialism was a far right movement.

Well that's pretty much a staple of the "libertarian" right in both the US and Europe innit?

PSL state legislator Douglas Garcia (PSL-SP) was outed after going in a  homophobic rant against Erica Malunguinho (PSOL-SP), first transgender elected to parliament. Commenting a law project who forbids transgender athletes to play in leagues not corresponding in their birth gender, he said that if he saw a "man who thinks who is a woman in same bathroom as my sister or my mother, I'd take him with my own hands, beating, before calling police". He was one of the creators of carnival bloc "Porao do Dops" after Brazilian military regime torturers.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-corruption-maia/brazil-house-speaker-key-to-pension-reform-accused-of-bribe-taking-document-idUSKCN1RO22P

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-accident/two-dead-after-buildings-collapse-in-militia-controlled-rio-neighborhood-idUSKCN1RO1OF

Right/Far-right
PSL 52
PP 37
DEM 29
PSC 8
Total 126

Left
PT 56
PSB 32
PDT 28
PSOL 10
PCdoB 9
Total 135

Center-right
MDB 34
PSDB 29
Other 189
Total 252

Bolsonaro's safe supporting base has ~130 of the 513 seats. The opposition has ~130 too. The remaing ~250 are flip flop.

Probably, the congress will not approve the full text of Guedes's welfare reform. It will approve the minimum age of 65 for men and 62 for women, but it will not approve to replace the pay-as-you-go system to a chilean style saving system, because it is a stupid idea.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48062075 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48062075)

Well, to be expected from the darling of the Atlas right.

Evil homophobe is an evil homophobe.

Including some gay people, of course.

Useful idiots if ever the term was justified.

Indigenous people protest on Brasília against land expropriation (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-indigenous/brazils-indigenous-tribes-protest-bolsonaro-assimilation-plan-idUSKCN1S22B5)
Fighting the good fight against settler colonialism. I hope there is at least delays to policy so things aren’t that irreversibly damaged.


Meanwhile, reality tv never felt so real.. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/28/turf-war-breaks-between-bolsonaro-sons-and-brazil-vice-president)
Can any Brazilian posters on the ground report more on these shenanigans? Specifically, the deal with what exact relevance Olavism entails and what led to this moment?

Color me shocked

Bolsonaro is a bizarre mix of Reaganite movement conservatism, Mike Pence style social conservatism and Trumpism.

There's a shock then, three different types of s*** equals s***e :)

Does anybody want to bet how long before Bolsonaro has Rousseff arrested ?

Lula is serving 12 years in prison & Temer got arrested recently.

Weintraub, minister of education, decided to cut fund to the federal universities which allowed political activities inside their campuses. In the following day, he cancelled his decision, however, the cuts could take place in the second semester.
We have to worry about the rising authoritarism

On May 15th, many students and professors went to the streets from all the Brazilian big cities in order to protest against the budget cuts for the federal universities and federal high schools. In São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, there were >100.000 on the streets.

Bolsonaro told that the cuts were result of the lack of resources because of the fall of the tax revenue. However, the cuts have ideological motivations. The ministry of education has already told that he was going to fight against the marxist ideology of the federal universities. This is a threat to the academic freedom, when the government cuts funding of the universities because the universities teach topics which the government dislikes.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/05/15/world/americas/ap-lt-brazil-education-protests.html

Pro-Bolsonaro rallies have been happening today, so far they have been reported in at least 52 cities and 12 states + Federal District. These people in the rallies are supporting government projects/acts like the pension reform, Moro's anticrime package and the extinction of some ministries. The calls to take part in these acts started after the May 15th protests against Bolsonaro.

So far there doesn't seem to be any official number of people in these rallies.

Edit: Now rallies have been reported in all states in 156 cities.

The anti-Bolsonaro pro-education rallies of students and teachers which took place on May 30th were not as big as the rallies of the May 15th, but they were much bigger than the pro-Bolsonaro rallies of the May 26th.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2019/may/31/protesters-take-to-brazils-streets-in-pictures

Some days ago Minister Sergio Moro had his cellphone hacked. Initially nothing too serious seemed to have happened but yesterday, journalists Glenn Greenwald, Alexandre de Sati and Rafael Moro de Martins from The Intercept released messages exchanged between Moro and Lava Jato prosecutors. According to the journalists, an anonymous source provided the private chats, audio recordings, videos and photos before Moro had his phone hacked.

Among the claims made by The Intercept, they said that one of the prosecutors, Deltan Dallagnol, who is a very important figure in Lava Jato expressed doubts whether there was sufficient information to establish Lula as guilty. It also claimed that Moro gave strategic advice to prosecutors.

The Intercept also said that many prosecutors expressed indignation when the Supreme Court justice Ricardo Lewandowski authorized the newspaper Folha de São Paulo to interview Lula during the election period. According to The Intercept, prosecutor Laura Tessler said that "an interview with Lula might elect Haddad if it happens close to the second round." The journalists also said that the prosecutors quickly started planning a way to prevent the interview from happening. When the authorization to interview Lula was revoked by Supreme Court judge Luiz Fux, the prosecutors commemorated according to The Intercept.

Vice President Hamilton Mourão said that Moro's messages posted by The Intercept are just private messages out of context. Moro said that he isn't even sure if those messages are real, but even if they are, the messages don't show any illegal action made by him.

The president of the senate, Davi Alcolumble announced that Justice Minister Moro is going to speak before the Constitution and Justice Committee on June 19th to explain the leaked conversations with Dallagnol.

The 2nd panel of the Supreme Court has defined that they are going to resume the debate on Lula's habeas corpus on June 25th, if 3 out of the 5 judges vote in favor of the habeas corpus, Lula would be released from jail. This habeas corpus was presented last year by Lula's defense after judge Moro accepted the invite to become justice minister made by Jair Bolsonaro. The 2nd panel started debating this on December, but the trial was suspended on December 4th after judge Gilmar Mendes requested a hearing, when he stopped the trial, two judges had voted and both voted against Lula's request.

The 2nd panel is composed by judges Marco Aurelio (voted against Lula's request), Carmen Lúcia (voted against), Gilmar Mendes (likely to vote in favor), Ricardo Lewandowski (likely to vote in favor) and Celso de Mello (who is probably going to be the vote that decides whether Lula gets out of jail or stays there).

The 2nd panel of the Supreme Court started discussing whether people can go to jail after getting convicted by an appellate court and before having exhausted all their appeals. Justice Lewandoswki voted that people can not go the jail before exhausting all their appeals, however, the other 4 justices voted to bring this issue to the plenary of the court, this means that all the judges, regardless of which panel they belong, are going to vote on this.

Bolsonaro has remained pretty quiet about the issue with Moro but other public figures have talked about it. Chief of Staff of the Presidency, Onyx Lorenzoni, defended Moro and downplayed the accusation against Moro and called him a "hero who helped to save Brazil from PT".

Three supreme court justices have also talked about the accusations against Moro. Gilmar Mendes said that even if the evidence against Moro was obtained in an illegal manner it would still be valid against him. Marco Aurelio said the opposite that Gilmar said, arguing that using evidence obtained illegally could represent a setback to democracy. Justice Luís Roberto Barroso criticized the "joy coming from the corrupts" after the messages were released by The Intercept.

Former judge Moro's and attorney Dallanol's actions were ilegal. The judge should be neutral between the attorney, who makes the accusation, and the lawyer, who makes the defense. Moro was clearly pro-accusation. Article 254 of the Brazilian code of penal procedure makes clear that the judge is not allowed to have private conversations with the important actors before the trial. The Intercept published that Moro and Dallanol had lot of private chat and that Moro helped Dallanol.
Lula's trial can become invalid and Lula can be released.
But Moro and Dallanol can not be sued because their chat was found through ilegal means. That is ironic, because Dallanol wanted in the past that ilegal proofs could be used in the trials. Dallanol was saved because his own proposal was not implemented.

Intercept showed new messages, in which former judge Sérgio Moro asked attorney Deltan Dallanol why former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) was being investigated by the Car Wash Operation. Dallanol answered that it was necessary to create a image that Car Wash was not partisan and not anti-PT biased. Moro answered that it was better not to investigate Cardoso, because the former president might became angry and his endorsement was important for the sucess of the Car Wash Operation.

It is ilegal a judge advise an attorney who should and who should not be investigated.

Airman with Brazil's G20 delegation held over drug trafficking
Spanish police find cocaine in man’s luggage at Seville airport en route to Tokyo summit

Spanish police have arrested a member of the air force travelling with the Brazilian president’s advance party for the G20 summit in Japan after 39kg of cocaine was discovered in his luggage during a stopover in Seville.
A spokesman for the Guardia Civil said the man was arrested on Tuesday after his plane landed at the Andalucían airport.
“The serviceman was travelling on a military plane that had flown in from Brazil and stopped over at Seville airport en route to Tokyo,” he said.
“The serviceman was found to have cocaine in his hand baggage that weighed a total of 39kg. He was arrested on suspicion of drug trafficking and is currently in custody at our Seville headquarters waiting to appear before a judge.”
It is understood the plane was carrying a military delegation tasked with protecting the Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, during the summit in the Japanese capital.
Bolsonaro confirmed the news in a statement on Tuesday night, saying he had been informed of the airman’s arrest by the defence minister.
“I immediately ordered the defence minister to cooperate with Spanish police to establish the facts and cooperate with every stage of the investigation, and to launch an investigation by the military police,” he said.
“There are around 300,000 men and women in the armed forces who are trained to uphold the highest principles of ethics and morality. If the airman is found to have committed a crime, he will be tried and convicted according to the law.”

Leaders are due to gather in Osaka on Friday and Saturday as Japan hosts its first G20 summit. As well as the main gathering, there will be meetings between finance ministers, central bank governors and foreign ministers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/26/soldier-with-brazil-g20-bolsonaro-delegation-held-over-drug-trafficking

Ibope Poll June 27th 2019

How do you evaluate Bolsonaro's administration?
Very good/Good 32%
Regular 32%
Very bad/Bad 32%

Do you approve or disapprove Bolsonaro?
Approve 46%
Disapprove 48%


This is the lowest approval rate of a brazilian president in the first semester of the first term.


However, considering his administration, I don't know the content of the brain of the 32% who think that it is good or very good.

Bolsonaro should hire somebody to stab him again to improve his ratings.

Say what you will about Brazilians electing this maniac by a sizable margin, but they seem to be learning that they made a mistake faster than we are about our own madman President.

Jair Bolsonaro is considering the possibility of making his son Eduardo Bolsonaro the Brazilian ambassador in Washington DC. Usually, this position is held by a career diplomat from Itamaraty, the Foreign Office.
Eduardo told that he is able to have this job because he speaks English and because he has already fried burgers in the USA. He is also a friend of Ivanka Trump.
Eduardo has already said that Pinochet was a great leader and that left-wing feminists don't shave the hair of the body.

Inpe, the National Institute of Spatial Research, told that in June 2019, the Amazon had its highest deforestation rate.
What did Bolsonaro do? Something against deforetation? No, he told that Inpe is not reliable!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49052360

Amazon deforestation: Brazil's Bolsonaro dismisses data as 'lies'

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has accused his own country's national space institute of lying about the scale of deforestation in the Amazon.

He said the institute was smearing Brazil's reputation abroad by publishing data showing a dramatic increase in deforestation there.

The far-right president said he wanted to meet with the head of the agency to discuss the issue.

The National Space Research Institute (Inpe) says its data is 95% accurate.

Mr Bolsonaro's comments on Friday came a day after preliminary satellite data released by Inpe showed that more than 1,000 sq km (400 sq miles) of the rainforest had been cleared in the first 15 days of July - an increase of 68% from the entire month of July 2018.

Speaking in a meeting with foreign journalists, Mr Bolsonaro said the data "doesn't relate to the reality".

Scientists say the Amazon has suffered losses at an accelerated rate since Mr Bolsonaro took office in January, with policies that favour development over conservation.

As the largest rainforest in the world, the Amazon is a vital carbon store that slows down the pace of global warming.

Official figures suggest that the biggest reason to fell trees there is to create new pastures for cattle.

Over the past decade, previous governments had managed to reduce deforestation with concerted action by federal agencies and a system of fines.

But Mr Bolsonaro and his ministers have criticised the penalties and overseen a dramatic fall in confiscations of timber and convictions for environmental crimes.

Several scientific institutions, including the Brazilian Academy of Sciences, have defended Inpe and the accuracy of its data.

In his comments to foreign journalists on Friday, Mr Bolsonaro also denied the existence of hunger in Brazil. He said there are no "people on the streets with skeletal physiques as seen in other countries", the Reuters news reports.

According to data from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization, some 5.2 million people suffered from hunger in Brazil in 2017.

Bolsonaro doesn't know any limit. In this week, Felipe Santa Cruz, president of the Brazilian Lawyers Association (OAB) criticized the administration. Bolsonaro answering telling that he has some information related to Cruz's father. Cruz's disapeared during the military dictatorship (1964-1985), regime which Bolsonaro has positive view.


When he was a congressman in 2016, during the voting of the Rousseff's impeachment, Bolsonaro honored the man who tortured Dilma Rousseff during the military dictatorship.

https://nownews2019.wordpress.com/2019/07/29/oab-president-will-address-bolsonaro/

Bolsonaro is an underdog when he talks to Trump, now he wants to be a patriot while talking to Macron and Merkel!

I don't like American and European political leaders and media who say that the South American countries in which the Amazon Forest is located should loose the soveregnty rights of the area of the forest.
But we have to preserve!

There was a large destruction of the Amazon and murder of natives during the military dictatorship (1964-1985), period which Bolsonaro (former army captain) told that was very good. The military governments wanted to bring "development" to the Amazon.
The civilian governments tried to have a different approach.
Workers' Party administrations, Lula and Dilma (2003-2016), had an intermediate record considering the Amazon. Deflorestation declined from 2004 to 2012, and then started to rise again. Lula took some actions to reduce deflorestation, but he supported the buinding of power plants in the rivers, like the Belo Monte Power Plant. Dilma was his minister and supported the project. Marina Silva, former environment minister, didn't like and asked her dismissal.
During Dilma's adminsitration, the congressmen supported by the big landowners (bancada ruralista) became very strong, and she couldn't do very much to support the environment.

While Lula and Dilma were neither very good nor very bad to the preservation of the Amazon Forest, Temer was very bad and Bolsonaro is horrible.

Now Bolsonaro is using a nationalist speech against Macron, but his government is not nationalist. Bolsonaro do everything Trump tells. No Brazilian government in the past was so submissive to the US government, neither left-wing nor right-wing.

1. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145464/fires-in-brazil (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145464/fires-in-brazil)


2. According to the BBC, the total CO2 equivalent emissions (used to measure the amount and intensity of fire activity) in Brazil were actually higher in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007 (under Lula) than in 2019.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49433767 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49433767)

3. Many of the photos being shared by Bolsonaro opponents, including the one in this tweet by Emmanuel Macron (https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1164617008962527232), were either taken before Bolsonaro took office or not even taken in Brazil at all.

4. Bolsonaro has just authorized the military to go in and fight the fires.

The impact here in Europe of the news about the Rainforest is huge. France and Ireland have announced that they will try to block the Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement. More countries will likely follow. Finland is even proposing a Embargo on Brazilian Meat.

Blocking the FTA and the Embargo are the right step. It is unfortunate that the smaller economies Argentina and the others will have to suffer from the decision too, but it is necessary to do whatever we can to put pressure on Bolsonaro.
Blocking Brazilian Agribusiness from Access to their vital export markets will hopefully make them use their huge lobby in the Brazilian Congress to pressure Bolsonaro.
I have to disagree on the sovereignty issue. These Rainforests, just like the seas, are property of the earth, and they are necessary for its survival. We cannot allow anyone to destroy our common planet and existance in the name of the holy grail of "national sovereignty". However there is of course Hypocrisy among Europeans/Americans, when we rightly want to stop Bolsonaro from destroying, but are ourselves Bigger polluters than Brazil.

Between 2003 and 2007 was higher, but declining until 2012

"3. Many of the photos being shared by Bolsonaro opponents, including the one in this tweet by Emmanuel Macron (https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1164617008962527232), were either taken before Bolsonaro took office or not even taken in Brazil at all." Many photos were taken before, it is wrong to use these photos, but it does not eliminate the fact that the deflorestation and the burning are increasing and that there are new photos to show.

Datafolha Poll, September 2nd 2019


How do you rate Bolsonaro's administration?
Good/Very good: 29%
Regular: 30%
Bad/Very bad: 38%

https://www.cartacapital.com.br/politica/datafolha-reprovacao-de-bolsonaro-vai-de-33-a-38-e-supera-popularidade/

Since 1947, Brazil starts the speechs in the UN General Assembly. Jair Bolsonaro performed the worst speech of these 72 years. It looked like a web site of far-right conspiracy theories. It was a shame for Brazil!

Ibope Poll, September 22nd 2019

How do you rate Bolsonaro's administration?
Good/Very Good: 31%
Regular: 32%
Bad/Very Bad: 34%

Do you approve or disapprove?
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 50%

https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2019/09/25/governo-jair-bolsonaro-tem-aprovacao-de-31percent-e-reprovacao-de-34percent-diz-pesquisa-ibope.ghtml

Bolsonaro refused to congratulate Alberto Fernandez for his victory. Not diplomatic.

So uh, nothing about today's, er, events?

Globo TV report that the assassins of Marielle Franco stopped by Bolsonaro's residence on the way to murder her

https://twitter.com/jnascim/status/1189352362177126400

And, uh, the reaction from Riyadh:

https://twitter.com/tomphillipsin/status/1189366940784939008

Ele é louco, sem dúvida.

what's happening with the Brazilian Party System at the moment? How are PSL adjusting to their rapid ascension? Are the traditional right wing parties - the PSDB, the MDB, the Democrats etc. - coping? Is PT showing a resurgence?

Lmao

https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1189351917547339777

Last weeks, PSL is in a internal crisis between Bolsonaro ultras and pragmaticals who follow PSL's owner president Luciano Bivar who owns a millionaire party fund due to 2018 electoral performance. Pro-Bolsonaro's wing was able to impose Eduardo Bolsonaro "03" as caucus leader to replace Sheriff Waldir - who called Bolsonaro as "vagabundo" for betraying party companions for his family. Bolsonaro also fired Joice Hasselmann as Congress' leader.
PSDB is now controlled by Doria's who calls for moderation after getting elected due to "Bolsodoria"' campaign. DEM who leads legislative branch (Senate and Chamber) leads Centrao's physiological parties. MDB is under the shadows, but now 2 of Bolsonaro's leaders are from them (Bezerra Coelho and Eduardo Gomes). PT is more isolated with Lula Livre's monotony and absent from big fights. Ciro Gomes is the true opposition leader but suffers betrayals from PDT caucus.

The investigation of the Civil Police from Rio de Janeiro found that the murder of Rio de Janeiro city legislator Marielle Franco visited the neighbor of Jair Bolsonaro, who is a military policeman, before the crime. This military policeman belongs to the "militia", who are criminal organizations in which policemen take part.
The Civil Police interogated the vigilant of the condominium where Bolsonaro and his neighbor live, and the vigilant told that in the day of the crime, the murder asked the authorization of Bolsonaro to get inside the condominium and visit Bolsonaro's neighbor.
After TV showed this news, which were a scandal for Bolsonaro, the public attorney of Rio de Janeiro checked the recording of the entrance of the condominium and found that the vigilant didn't tell the truth and that the murder asked the autorization for the neighbor and not Bolsonaro. However, in the day after, the media found that the public attorney was a supporter of Bolsonaro (after searching her social networks, like Facebook) and that she was not reliable for the investigation. It was also found that the recording of the condominium was not complete and that some audio could have been lost.

Even if is not true that the murder asked the authorization to Bolsonaro to get inside the condominium and visit the neighbor in the day of the crime, it is a bothering issue that the murder has close ties to the neighbor of the president of the republic. We still do not know the relation between Bolsonaro and his neighbor, but we know that the neighbor is a policeman who takes part in the militia, and Bolsonaro family has close ties with policemen who take part in the militia. When the senator Flavio Bolsonaro was legislator of the state of Rio de Janeiro, he employed in his cabinett relatives of policemen who took part in the militia.

There is no evidence that Jair Bolsonaro and his kids have any relation to the murder of Marielle Franco, but the family has ties to policemen who take part in the militia and the investigation found out that some policemen who take part in the militia were related to the crime.

What betrayal is Ciro Gomes facing from his own party? Also is the PSOL making any gains on their own or what with the two main left party’s in their own issues?

In Pensions'r reform some voted for reform (8 congressman of 30 and senator Katia Abreu, Ciro's running-mate). PSOL is now in crossroads, between a lone run or going to do a left-wing front.
AND LULA IS FREE!

Brazilian Constitution tells that someone should go to the prison only when there is no more possibility of appeal or if a judge decides that it is dangerous for the society someone to be outside the prison.
In 2016, the Supreme Court decided that everyone who is sentenced in a second trial should go directly to the prison. It was a strange decision, since the Supreme Court is in charge to respect the Constitution, and the Constitution tells that only convicted after all possible trials should go the prison.
Yesterday, the Supreme Court changed its view and followed the Constitution.

Since Lula was sentenced by regional courts, but he was not sentenced by the Supreme Court yet, he was freed. He can wait his final trial free.

Even without the decision of the Supreme Court, Lula could be released. He served in the prison more than 1/6 of his sentence, so, he has the right of parole.

Yesterday, Brazilian diplomacy did something very stupid. Besides USA and Israel, only Brazil voted for the sanctions for Cuba. Other 187 countries voted against.

That's not going to encourage the conspiracy theorists at all, no sirree.

Venezuela ambassy in Brasília was invaded by Guaidó supporters. Eduardo Bolsonaro supported the invasion. The police took a very long time to remove the invaders. Some congresspeople from PT and PSOL got inside the ambassy in order to fight against the invaders.

Eduardo Bolsonaro has not high democratic credentials. Few days ago he said that a self-coup, like the one that took place in Brazil in 1968, should be considered an option.

Bolsonaro family is not member of the PSL anymore. They decided to create their own far-right party, the Alliance for Brazil. The number of the party is 38 (coincidence: the number of the most famous gun). Look at the picture of the logo of the party
https://www.alagoas24horas.com.br/1258757/bolsonaro-faz-ato-de-lancamento-de-novo-partido-em-brasilia/

Brazil's economic minister causes uproar mentioning dictatorship decree

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two of Brazil’s former presidents, a chief justice and heads of both chambers of Congress on Tuesday repudiated the country’s economy minister for saying the government might take draconian steps if leftist opponents stirred up protests such as those in Chile.
Speaking in Washington on Monday about turmoil in neighboring countries, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes told reporters not to be surprised if somebody called for an AI-5, a measure decreed by the 1964-1985 military dictatorship to close Congress and suppress dissent.

His remarks come weeks after the release from prison of leftist ex-President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, setting the stage for political confrontation with right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula has vowed to unite the left behind his Workers Party to win the 2022 elections.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-guedes/brazils-guedes-causes-anger-by-reference-to-dictatorship-decree-idUSKBN1Y01XK

Look how bizarre


Jair Bolsonaro
Brazil’s president claims DiCaprio paid for Amazon fires
Jair Bolsonaro falsely accuses actor of funding deliberate destruction of rainforest
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/29/brazils-president-claims-dicaprio-paid-for-amazon-fires

Trump renews tariff threat on Brazil and Argentina

Bolsonaro behaves like a Trump's pet and we win nothing!

Datafolha Poll December 8th 2019

Bolsonaro's administration rating
30% Good/Very good
32% Regular
36% Bad/Very bad

Jair's son, senator Flavio Bolsonaro, is investigated because he is suspicious to have employed fake employees in his cabinett (every representative and senator is allowed to employ some staff) in order to take their wages. Flavio is having trouble to explain how can he own flats whose value is much higher than someone who earns only the wage of a congressman can buy.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50859314

Comedian group Porta dos Fundos (translation: backdoor) led by Gregório Duvivier made a short movie about a Jesus Christ who goes back home and presents his new boyfriend to his father.

The office of Porta dos Fundos was attacked by homemade bombs. It is suspicious that far-right religious groups could have been responsible for the attack.

Snowflakes.

Secretary of Culture, announcing an art contest, reproduced a Goebbels's speech, using exactly the same words. Of course, the German Ambassy, the Jewish Association complained.
Not good for a president and for a minister of foreign affairs who told last year that national socialism was left-wing.

Right wing Jews who support far right parties and leaders will always be surprised when they discover that these people are anti-semitic, huh?

There are Haredi Jews that support Le Pen, so either they are very deaf to the dog whistles or just don’t care.

Some jews support Bolsonaro because he is the most pro-Israel brazilian leader.

Yes, the far-right has a double view about the jews. The intelectual leader of the brazilian government, the former astrologist Olavo de Carvalho is very pro Israel but sometimes he has some dog whistles, like considering George Soros evil, considering the Frankfurt School evil.

Brazilian picture "Democracy on the edge" is an Oscar nominee in the best documentary category.
It is a left-wing view of the political events in Brazil in the 2010s. The director was born in 1984, the year of the redemocratization in Brazil, and her main argument is that between 1984 and 2014, there was a hope that Brazil could become a full democracy like a developed country, but events that led to Dilma Rousseff's impeachment and Lula's prision made the Brazilian democracy rigged.

Of course, right-wing politicians and journalists disliked the movie. Bolsonaro used his official twitter to say that director Petra Costa is against Brazil.

News from Brazil:

A police officer from Rio de Janeiro, who takes part in the militia (the mafia of policemen) and is a friend of the Bolsonaro family, was killed by the police in Bahia. Probably it was an execution, and not an attempt to resist to an arrest order. The left usually says that it was an operation in order to keep silence and avoid the policeman to speak about his ties with Bolsonaro family. Although the governor of Bahia belongs to PT, policemen usually support Bolsonaro, no matter the party of the governor of the state. Bolsonaro family usually says that the PT governor wanted to kill the policeman.

During the 2018 campaign, newspaper Folha de S. Paulo published news about businessmen who paid to ilegal campaign in Whatsapp. This ilegal campaign used many hoaxes. Last week, a former worker of the firm who put the ilegal advertising in Whatsapp accused Folha's journalist to offer sex in exchange for information. He didn't show any proof. This week, Bolsonaro repeated the accusation. So, we can see that he committed both false accusation and sexism.

There is a strike of military police in the state of Ceará. Former governor Cid Gomes, brother of the 2018 candidate Ciro Gomes, try to get closer to the demonstration of the policemen, driving a tractor, in order to negotiate. Cid Gomes was shot, but his life is not in danger.

 World's biggest meat company linked to 'brutal massacre' in Amazon (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/03/worlds-biggest-meat-company-linked-to-brutal-massacre-in-amazon)

Today, IBGE announced that the brazilian GDP grew 1.1% in 2019, after 1.3% growth in 2017 and 2018. Chicago economics, which started in the second (short) Dilma's term in 2015, was made more intense by Temer after May 2016 and became even stronger under Bolsonaro (and his minister Paulo Guedes), showed mediocre results.

When talking to this result to the media, Bolsonaro, instead of being serious, put a comedian imitating him to distribute bananas to the journalists.

Interesting to know who are the firms behind crimes against Amazon and its peoples

I suggest also to read this article https://theintercept.com/2019/08/27/amazon-rainforest-fire-blackstone/

One member of Jair Bolsonaro's staff has coronavirus. He was diagnosed after returning from Florida. The test showed positive result. Bolsonaro took the test today and the result will be released tomorrow. We will see if he is infected too.

Hard week in Brazil:

Bolsonaro called protests against the Congress and the Supreme Court because he says that both are harming his job. It is democratic to show dissatisfaction against the branches of power. However, some far-right groups who support Bolsonaro call for shut the Congress and the Supreme Court, like a Fujimori style coup. According to the Article 85 of the Federal Constitution, threat to democratic institution is an offense which justifies impeachment.

There are lots of political and economic uncertainties: US$1=R$4.20 at the beggining of 2020. Today, the dollar reached R$5.

Do you know what do "dumb people" mean? See this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBifclVeFh8

Impeachment of Jair Bolsonaro is already discussed by some politicians. Threat to democratic institutions and mismanagement of the cov19 crisis are the motives.
On Monday, one representative of Rede (Marina Silva's party) sent an impeachment request to the House. Two days later, three representatives of PSOL sent another impeachment request. The president of PSOL told that these three representatives were acting by themselves and not in the name of the party. He told that the direction of the party considers that impeachment is not the priority now.

To be approved, the impeachment request should by accepted by the president of the House Rodrigo Maia. Than, it should be approved by a special comission in the House, and then, it needs 2/3 of the votes of the whole House. Then, it needs 2/3 of the votes of the Senate.
Maia, although a conservative, is doing several criticism on Bolsonaro's administration. But he is not going to accept the request until he is sure that there will be more than 2/3 of the votes. If the impeachment goes to vote and fails to reach 2/3, Bolsonaro can get stronger.

Bolsonaro's inneptitude is shocking for all who didn't know him before. He's attacking governors for adopting mesures as shopping closures and road blocks (like Wilson Witzel and Joao Doria who became president's enemy). Cacerolazos are being made daily and today one is programmed as "birthday gift" to Bolsonaro.

Right wing clown turns out to be a clown shocker.

Well, after he managed to get himself expelled from his own party & literally antagonize everybody in both houses of Congress, this is certainly not unexpected.

I think after this week, more than 2/3 of both houses would support impeachment, but it is not good a political crisis during a public health crisis. That's why even the mainstream PSOL thinks that it is not the time for impeachment (the far left wing of the party is campaigning for impeachment).

Bolsonaro is dealing very bad with Covid. He believes in far-right anti-scientific propaganda which says that shut-down is not necessary. His son believes in conspiracy theories about China. At least the governors, even the most conservative ones, are making a good job and making the shut-down by themselves. And bureacratic workers in public organizations, like the Ministry of Health, universities and research institutes have some autonomy against crazy elected politicians.

Hearing Brazilians turn against Bolsonaro gives me hope; sounds like he's trying to really f**k things up down there, much like our President up here. Many Americans will evidently just believe Trump & blame China for the crisis, but I'd feared that other countries would as well. Glad to hear the delusion might just be limited to our borders.

Do we have any reason to believe Bolsonaro's veep would be better... I mean less s**ty than the man himself? I know the bar is very, very low, but I can't also think of a moment too soon to toss out the dangerous lunatic.

Mourão is horrible, but he is not as bad as Bolsonaro

In the TV on Tuesday, Bolsonaro told that the shut down is destroying jobs, that for people who are not old the covid is "just a flu" (against all the scientists). He is putting the lives of many people in danger. In the following day, Mourão told that he supports the shut down.
The governors and mayors ignored Bolsonaro and kept the shut down.


Concerning the impeachment, the biggest problem is the time: it takes long time to the special commission of the House discuss the request, to the presentation of the accusation, to the presentation of the defense. The time between the president of the House accept the request and the final vote in the House takes at least 2 months. It is dangerous to do this now when the country (and the world) is facing a public health crisis.

Is an expedited legislative procedure not possible?

Very hard, the Congress should work on other issues too

Bolsonaro exempted churches from the stay at home order, saying that prayer is necessary. So clownish.

Mr. President, South Korea called. They said, "this is a really bad f**king idea!"

I have a few questions about Brazil’s President-namely, how?? And why? Let me elaborate.
Number one, how exactly did he get elected? Was it a similar thing to Trump in that he ran so anti-establishment?
Two, is he popular? He seems to me to like a James Bond villain. He seems super racist towards the Amazon tribes, super arrogant, and shows a huge amount of apathy towards the environment or science. Other past Presidents have criticized him, notably Lulu de Silva.
Lastly, why does it seem he is getting away with everything? Is it corruption? He has repeatedly called COVID-19 a media hoax and has gutted the Amazon, and it doesn’t seem as though anybody can really stop him.

I have a few questions about Brazil’s President-namely, how?? And why? Let me elaborate.
Number one, how exactly did he get elected? Was it a similar thing to Trump in that he ran so anti-establishment?
Not exactly. He had an speech against political establishment (although he was a congressman for 28 years) but unlike Trump, he had more free-market views and than he was strongly supported by the upper middle class. Bolsonaro was polling 20% until August. Many political scientists though that Alckmin (PSDB) would overtake him and represent the right in the runoff, since Alckmin had a strong party machine. But after the attack with knife, it became impossible to overtake him. In the runoff, the upper middle class who used to vote for PSDB voted for him because the opponent Haddad was a PT candidate and many people think "Bolsonaro is not good, but nothing is worse than PT" (a stupid way of thinking).

Two, is he popular? He seems to me to like a James Bond villain. He seems super racist towards the Amazon tribes, super arrogant, and shows a huge amount of apathy towards the environment or science. Other past Presidents have criticized him, notably Lulu de Silva.
In the polls conducted before covid crisis, 1/3 considered his administration good/very good, 1/3 considered regular, and 1/3 considered bad/very bad. The three groups who most support him are the landowner (before of the more "flexible" rules concerning environment), the business sector (because of the free market reforms) and the evangelicals

Lastly, why does it seem he is getting away with everything? Is it corruption? He has repeatedly called COVID-19 a media hoax and has gutted the Amazon, and it doesn’t seem as though anybody can really stop him.
Even conservative governors of São Paulo (João Doria) and Rio de Janeiro (Wilson Witzel) turned against him, the president of the House Rodrigo Maia too, but as I told in the Brazil thread, it is very hard to conduct a impeachment process during a public health crisis, since it takes at least 2 months in the House and 2 months in the Senate

I realize it is still quite a ways off, but how do Bolsonaro's reelection prospects look? Is he favoured or an underdog?

Also, considering how fractured Brazil's Congress is, does he have support there to impose his policies?

Something tells me that fiddling while a pandemic looms would indeed cost him re-election in 2022, yes.

Well, during 2019, Bolsonaro always had the good/very good rating in the polls between 30% and 40%. It is too high considering how horrible he is, but it is the lowest approval rate for an elected president in the first year of the first term (worse than Collor 1990, Fernando Henrique Cardoso 1995, Lula 2003 and Dilma Rousseff 2011). But when simulation polls were done for 2022, he would still defeat a PT candidate in the runoff, no matter if the PT candidate is Lula or Haddad.
After the covid, no national polls were done, but a poll made by phone in the city of São Paulo showed 26% good/very good, 25% regular and 48% bad/very bad.

So the proportion of Brazilians who are uber-hack far-right automata is about 1/4, as opposed to the US where it's about 1/3. Good to know.

https://twitter.com/salgado_ro/status/1246574367670140930?s=21

You know, I feel partly responsible for the US coup to succeed in the way it did. It makes no sense, but I feel that as I live here, I am responsible in allowing a military junta to be imposed on the Brazilian people.

So, this is basically just a Brazilian version of that NY Times op-ed from people working for Trump acknowledging how they don't follow his orders?

There was no coup, but Bolsonaro is becoming less and less important. He talks to his cattle that he is against the shutdown, but since the governors, the mayors, the congress, the supreme court, the military, and even the minister of health are supporting the shutdown, the shutdown is going on.

In this week, the congress approved a R$600 (US$120) monthly transfer for workers who do not have a regular job. It is hard for these workers to earn money during the shutdown. Bolsonaro and Guedes used bureacratic constraints to delay these payments: they want to turn these starving people against the governors and mayors who ordered the shutdown. Maybe, the transfers will start this week.

If this virus brings down Bolsonaro, it just shows how there is a sliver lining to everything.

Datafolha Poll April 3rd 2020

A sample of 1500 brazilians were interviewed by phone

Rating of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/Very good: 33%
Regular: 25%
Bad/Very bad: 39%

Age
16-24: 24% g vg, 30% r, 45% b vb
25-34: 30% g vg, 22% r, 47% b vb
35-44: 38% g vg, 24% r, 36% b vb
45-59: 35% g vg, 22% r, 40% b vb
60-: 37% g vg, 29% r, 31% b vb

School
Elementary: 34% g vg, 28% r, 35% b vb
High School: 35% g vg, 25% r, 38% b vb
College: 28% g vg, 20% r, 50% b vb

Income (1 Minimum Wage = R$1000 monthly = US$200 monthly)
<2MW: 32% g vg, 26% r, 40% b vb
2-5 MW: 35% g vg, 27% r, 36% b vb
5-10 MW: 36% g vg, 20% r, 42% b vb
>10 MW: 32% g vg, 21% r, 46% b vb

Some of you might think: how this horrible president and horrible person has 1/3 of approval rate? Most of the evangelic churches support him, and many evangelicals are brainwashed.
Some months ago, the upper-income people approve Bolsonaro more than the low-income people because they support Paulo Guedes's economic policies. But after the anti-social distancing views, Bolsonaro lost support of the higher income people. However, he kept the endorsement of many low-income people. They have never heard about an exponential function, and so, they don't understand that most casualities related to the covid19 didn't take place in Brazil now, but they will take place in the next days. Many inhabitants of slums do not have a regular job, they only sell things in the streets, and they are loosing money because of the social distancing.

Bolsonaro fires popular health minister after dispute over coronavirus response

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/bolsonaro-brazil-president-luiz-mandetta-health-minister

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/04/19/world/americas/ap-lt-brazil-bolsonaro.html


https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/coronavirus-brazilian-president-jair-bolsonaro-coughs-over-his-fans/news-story/c950975d2e7fb2e7445fa3c49f503c33


This is actually surreal lol, even Trump doesn't come close. This guy is physically spreading coronavirus, not just with his incompetence.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/brazil-justice-minister-sergio-moro-resigns-jair-bolsonaro

Moro quits.

Sergio Moro accused Jair Bolsonaro of asking him to intervene in investigations conducted by the Federal Police (the Federal Police is branch which belongs to the Ministry of Justice). There are ongoing investigations against Flavio Bolsonaro due to his connections to the organized crime of Rio de Janeiro and against Carlos Bolsonaro because he his suspect of controlling a hoax distribution machine through Whatsapp and Internet against opponents of Bolsonaros.
If this accusation is true, this is a crime of responsability, and an impeachment process can start.

Bolsonaro made a speech along his cabinet (including VP Mourao) saying that Moro was against him in Presidency. He remembered an episode when Moro refused to shake his hands in airport in 2017 and for not working to get "who paid to kill me?" (he thinks that 2018 stabbing was a conspiracy). Now PDT (Democratic Labour Party, my party) added a new impeachment denounce, as REDE, PSB and Greens. Even PSL (Bolsonaro's former party) will ask his impeachment.

2 questions: When can we expect President Mourão? And could/would he (somehow) manage to be worse than Bolsonaro?

My understanding is that Mourão, while terrible in his own right, is not as bad as Bolsonaro.

General Hamilton Mourão is very bad. He has very right-wing views and he is a little stupid. But he is the lesser of the evils comparing to Jair Bolsonaro. At least, Mourão doesn't have anti-science and religious fundamentalist views.
Jair Bolsonaro was a captain of the army in the 1980s and he was fired. Hamilton Mourão got retired from the army only in March 2018, when he decided to become Bolsonaro's running mate. A Mourão administration would increase the power of the military. This is not too bad: Bolsonaro's military ministers are not as bad as his civilian ministers.

Who will the opposition push to run against Bolsonaro in 2022 & can he or she give him a run for his money ?

Lula was freed & is now out of jail, right? I'd presume him if at all possible, but one of our Brazilian posters is obviously better positioned to answer this question than me lol

Lula is in parole because he served more than 1/6 of the sentence, but he is still sentenced and so he is not allowed to run. Besides, this week, Lula told that he doesn't want to run in 2022 because he is too old and tired. He was born in 1945.
The nominee of the left will be probably Fernando Haddad again, or Ciro Gomes again or Flavio Dino, governor of Maranhão who is making a good administration. Dino belongs to the Communist Party, although he is not communist.
The nominee of the center-right will be probably João Doria, governor of São Paulo, Sérgio Moro or Luciano Huck, a TV star.

More than 10 thousand brazilians lost their lives because of the covid.
Maybe this number is highing. Some people who passed away were not tested.

Bolsonaro has to be near the top of the league for his totally maladroit handling of this virus.

Today, Minister of Health Nelson Teich resigns after less of 1 month in office. He refused to allow use of hydroxicloroquine who is supported by Jair Bolsonaro. Yesterday, Bolsonaro made a Provisional Measure to autoamnesty for any mismanagement commited during pandemics, as allowing medicines with scientifical approval, but this is very liked to be axed by Supreme Court or Congress.

Video of the meeting with all ministers in April 22nd showed Bolsonaro speaking that he wanted to change the director of the Federal Police in order to avoid investigation of his son, who has close links to the "militia" in Rio de Janeiro. Of course this is an offense: appointing people for public office according to personal interests. There is a legal justification for the impeachment. However it is still not clear if there will be 2/3 of the votes of the House.

Datafolha poll, 2,000 people interviewed, May 28th
Rating of Bolsonaro administration
33% Good/Very good
22% Regular
43% Bad/Very bad
This poll has an error in the sample: 63% of the interviewed people answered that they voted for Bolsonaro in the runoff in 2018. He had 55%. So, the good/very good is overestimated. Other polls show ~25% for good/Very good and ~50% for bad/very bad

Federal Police caught cell phones and computers of congresspeople and businesspeople who were participating in a pro-Bolsonaro propaganda network. This network used to spread fake news against Bolsonaro opponents through the Whatsapp. The investigation of the Federal Police might show further evidence about this network.

During the time of social distancing, there were only pro-Bolsonaro rallies (with very few people). Today was different.
In São Paulo, anti-fascist fans of the soccer teams Corinthians, São Paulo, Palmeiras and Santos made a rally at Avenida Paulista, and there was some conflict against the pro-Bolsonaro rally.
In Rio de Janeiro, there was a "black lives matter" protest in front of the palace of the state government (everybody wearing masks, of course). Last week, João Pedro, a black 14 year old boy was murdered by the police during an operation in a favela in Rio de Janeiro. And the protesters followed the wave of protests after Floyd's assassination.

Queiroz was arrested!

Brazilian police arrest Bolsonaro ally in corruption inquiry
Arrest of Fabrício Queiroz is connected to investigation involving president’s son

Police have arrested a longstanding friend of Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, in connection with a corruption inquiry involving Bolsonaro’s son.

Reports in the Brazilian media said civil police investigators arrested Fabrício Queiroz, a former police officer who has known Bolsonaro since the 1980s, on Thursday morning in Atibaia, a town 40 miles north of São Paulo.

The property where Queiroz was arrested is reportedly owned by Frederick Wassef, a lawyer who represents Bolsonaro and his son Flávio. Queiroz previously worked for Flávio Bolsonaro, who is now a senator.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/brazilian-police-arrest-bolsonaro-ally-in-corruption-inquiry

The arrest of Queiroz can bring some information about violation of the law committed by the Bolsonaro family. This information is not directly related to the possibility of impeachment. The crimes which could be revealed were not committed during the administration, so, cannot be used in an impeachment process. But these facts can destroy even more Bolsonaro's approval rate, and so, these facts increase the probability of having votes of 2/3 of the House and Senate.
The impeachment can be justified by the mismanagement of the covid19 and by the attempt to change the director of the Federal Police in Rio de Janeiro in order to avoid investigation of the son.

Is the opposition still disorganized without any sort of structure or common leadership? How have the Labour Party and PT jostled their way into the spotlight as of late?

The biggest left-wing party is still PT (Workers Party). PT has 54 representatives in the House. PDT (Democratic Labor Party) has 28. PSOL (Party of Socialism and Liberty) has 10. PCdoB (Communist Party of Brazil) has 8.
PT has the biggest support, but has the biggest opposition too. 1/4 of the voters would always vote for Lula or someone endorsed by him, but 1/2 of the voters would never vote for Lula, no matter the opponent. Because of the big opposition received by Lula, Ciro Gomes (PDT) is trying to build an independent bloc with Marina Silva (REDE). He thinks that being too close to Lula could damage his image. Ciro Gomes had 13% in the first round in 2018, he casted the vote for Haddad in the runoff, but he refused to join his campaign. He was in vacation in Europe during the runoff campaign. Ciro Gomes has a lower floor than Lula, but he expects to have a higher ceiling. Flavio Dino (PCdoB), governor of the state of Maranhão, hopes to run for president in 2022. He has good relation with both Lula and Ciro.
PT, PDT and PCdoB are center-left parties. PSOL, in the far-left (not so far anymore nowadays), has fewer votes because it still not able to have the votes of the working class. However, PSOL is the favorite party of the left in the universities, and since professors and students are more active, we can expect a growing base for PSOL.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/23/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-mask-intl/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/23/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-mask-intl/index.html)

Datafolha poll 2016 people interview by phone on June 24th 2020

Rate Bolsonaro administration: good, regular, bad

Total: 32, 23, 44

Men: 36, 23, 41
Women: 28, 23, 48

16-24 years: 21, 25, 54
25-34 years: 33, 27, 39
35-44 years: 37, 21, 41
45-59 years: 34, 23, 42
60- years: 33, 19, 47

Elementary: 33, 25, 40
High School: 32, 24, 43
College: 29, 18, 53

0-2 minimum wages: 29, 25, 44
2-5 minimum wages: 35, 22, 43
5-10 minimum wages: 33, 17, 50
10- minimum wages: 34, 14, 52

Southeast: 29, 23, 47
South: 42, 24, 33
Northeast: 27, 20, 52
Centerwest/North: 38, 26, 36

Metro: 28, 21, 49
Countryside: 34, 24, 41

White: 37, 20, 42
Brown: 30, 25, 43
Black: 20, 24, 55
Asian: 27, 19, 52
Native: 34, 21, 45

Interesting that his approvals on Indigenous Brazilians is so high. I would have thought it would be bad considering his actions in the Amazon.

Maybe this result was biased because of the small size of the sample. 2,000 answered this poll. The size of this sample is OK. But only 3% was indigenous. So, 60 people who answered this polls were indigenous. This is not a reliable sample.

Anyway, Bolsonaro's administration is a disaster converning the reserves in the Amazon forest (well, the administration is a disaster in every issue). But not all the indigenous people live in reserves. Bolsonaro is trying to allow mining activities inside the reserves. And some people in Amazon who work in mining activies are indigenous people (or at least they have some ancestry).

Bolsonaro tests positive after constantly flouting health advice for months, both personally and nationally.

Karma.

The way the universe always strikes a balance... Keisha Lance Bottoms gets it... then Brazilian Hitler gets it.

No, karma would be him dying from COVID-19 after flouting health advice for months.

Are we sure he has actually got it this time?

He's gonna to use a few of hydroxychloroquine pills of stockpile he created. He bought supplies for 18 years, but due date of stock is in 2 years. There's 2 months that Brazil is without Minister of Health and positions are being occupied by military officers without links with health. Ministry of Education is also empty, after Weintraub's resignation, he tried to nominate Carlos Decotelli, but he had to resign after they discovered frauds in his curriculum (he didn't finish PhD and he plagiarized Masters).

How inaccurate is the death toll? The photos from the amazons suggested more deaths than actually reported

Tbh, I have a feeling Bolsonaro's infection with Covid might be fake or a hoax to influence public opinion. He may try to use his "example" to prove the disease is mainly harmless or untested drugs are the cure.

When Bolsonaro came back from Florida on March, members of his staff were infected by the coronavirus. He did an examination too and he didn't want to show the result. So, many people though that the result was positive. After a request by the Supreme Court, he showed the result of two tests, which showed negative. Many people though these tests were fake.
Now, on July, the test showed a positive result. So, he really was not infected on March. Probably, he tried to hide the result of the test on March in order to show to his herd that he don't follow the orders of the juditiary branch and of the media because the juditiary branch and the media are evil.

Today, former speaker of Chamber, Severino Cavalcanti (PP-PE) died at 89. He was one of most colourful characters of Brazilian politics. Ultracatholic and antiabortion activist, he was also known of one of most supportive of benefits to congressmen, as higher wages and cabinet apportions. He was "king of low clergy", who are backbench congressmen that haven't power in parties and commissions but are seeking more pork and benefits to own base. He got speakership in 2005, when PT then as party with most seats split between 2 candidates, with opposition support. But he got allied with Lula president. He had to resign in same year, when he was denounced for asking bribe from a restaurant owner that have business in Congress Palace. He failed to return Congress, but served as mayor of Joao Alfredo between 2009 and 2012.

The Brazilian version of Donald Trump thumbs his nose at heads of state of other countries, but when it comes to foreign investors, he sits up and listens:

Brazil's Bolsonaro under pressure to protect Amazon (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/brazils-bolsonaro-under-pressure-to-protect-amazon/ar-BB16SWkD?ocid=msedgdhp)

Money doesn't just talk, it yells.

Ironic indeed if it is the "filthy capitalists" who come to the Amazon rainforest's rescue.

A vacine against the coronavirus was developed in a partnership between a chinese laboratory and the University of São Paulo. Tomorrow, this vacine will be tested in 9 thousand volunteers in Brazil. We hope a good result!

Thousands of families evicted in Sao Paulo amid pandemic (https://apnews.com/087fcdb3d06db1e7fd10209c6e82413c)

Magazine Piauí showed that during a meeting with the ministers, which took place on May 22nd 2020, Bolsonaro suggested a self-coup against the Supreme Court, like the one Fujimori did in Peru in 1992. Three ministers are generals from the army, and according to the magazine, Bolsonaro was asking the military to support the coup. The magazine said that one of the members of the meeting, which was not identified told the magazine what happened. There was no recording of the meeting, like the one which took place at April 22nd. After Piauí's article, Bolsonaro neither denied nor confirmed the content of the meeting. If there is proof of what he spoke at the meeting, it would be one of the many motives for an impeachment process.
 https://piaui.folha.uol.com.br/materia/vou-intervir/

Datafolha poll on Bolsonaro's job approval:  (https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/08/aprovacao-a-bolsonaro-sobe-e-e-a-melhor-desde-o-inicio-do-mandato-diz-datafolha.shtml)

37% Good/Very good (+5)
34% Bad/Very bad (-10)
27% Average (+4)
  1% Undecided (nc)

Poll conducted between 11 and 12 August 2020. Polled 2,065 voters. MoE of 2.00%.

Datafolha poll August 2020
Good/Very good, Regular, Bad/Very bad

Total: 37, 27, 34

Men: 42, 29, 29
Women: 33, 26, 39

16-24: 26, 31, 41
25-34: 41, 26, 32
35-44: 45, 26, 29
45-59: 39, 26, 34
60-: 34, 29, 35

Elementary: 40, 31, 27
High School: 36, 29, 34
College: 34, 18, 47

0-2 minimum wages: 35, 33, 31
2-5 minimum wages: 40, 21, 37
5-10 minimum wages: 40, 20, 40
>10 minimum wages: 40, 13, 47

Southeast: 36, 24, 39
South: 42, 26, 31
Northeast: 33, 30, 35
North/Center-west: 42, 31, 25

Metro area: 33, 25, 41
Countryside: 40, 29, 29

White: 40, 23, 36
Brown: 37, 29, 31
Black: 25, 27, 48
Asian: 40, 36, 25


How can 37% support him?
Well, many of the 105K covid deaths in Brazil happened because he didn't support the social distancing, so, it was harder to make it serious. However, the social distancing took place anyway because of the governors and the mayors. Many people are stupid and cannot understand that more people would have died if there was no social distancing. Since many people care more about the job losses than the life losses, they agree with Bolsonaro's speech.
Besides, his approval rates increased in the group of low income people. The R$600 (US$110) monthly transfer to poor people during the pandemic helped to increase the popularity. Many people don't know that this loan was proposed by the opposition and approved in the congress. The administration wanted only a R$200 transfer.

how can 37% think he's doing a god job? with the real numbers Brazil was probably hurt worse than the US

No matter how bad they are, people like Trump or Bolsonaro have always a large number of supporters that buy their product, disregarding truth and objective facts. They hear what they want to hear and that's what their leaders tell to them. You are not going to convince that people with arguments, because they are moved by emotions. I guess the 'remedy' (in case there's any) to far right 'populists' is selling their supporters an alternative product that appeals to the fears and emotions. Possibly some of their supporters are just racist and fanatic, but others are moved by fears caused by events and phenomena beyond their control

Hot news: Eduardo Bolsonaro's friend, political advisor of Bolsonaro family is in jail!

Heh, just noticed this typo :)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/24/americas/bolsonaro-threat-punch-reporter-intl-scli/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/24/americas/bolsonaro-threat-punch-reporter-intl-scli/index.html)


Well, that's just charming.

Yes, some pundits believed that Bolsonaro became more moderate after the arrest of Queiroz, but no

Him & Trump have just been competing this whole time to see who could look the most ridiculous during a global pandemic, haven't they?

With an honourable mention for Johnson.

There is a ongoing dispute inside Bolsonaro's administration.

Concerning economics, Bolsonaro is an exception in the group of the world far-right leaders. He is the only one who supports free-market fundamentalism, unlike Donald Trump, Mateusz Morawiecki, Viktor Orbán, Rodrigo Duterte, Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini, who support economic nationalism and a social safety net, in order to make them more attractive to low-income voters than center-right leaders.
The Minister of Economy Paulo Guedes had a PhD in Chicago in the 1970s and has the Pinochet's Chicago Boys as the model.
Actually, Bolsonaro has no own ideas about economics. His mind is a blank paper sheet. In the 1990s, he supported economic nationalism and criticized privatizations conducted by Fernando Henrique Cardoso administration, because many generals supported right-wing economic nationalism and the Brazilian military dictatorship (1964-1985), unlike the Chilean military dictatorship, conducted a state-led capitalist development. But recently, Bolsonaro converted to free-market fundamentalism because of this guru Olavo de Carvalho and because of businessmen who support him.
However, some supporters of Bolsonaro in the congress are not satisfied with Guedes' austerity. Paulo Guedes wants to keep the (stupid) constitutional spending ceiling, created during Temer administration. The congressmen who support Bolsonaro want to increase public investiment so that Bolsonaro can be reelected in 2022.
We still don't know which side Bolsonaro will support.
The mainstream media, which is pro center-right PSDB, some weeks ago, was on the same side of the left, criticizing Bolsonaro because of his mismanagement of the pandemics and mismanagement of the environment. Now, mainstream media, unlike the left, is criticizing Bolsonaro for not being fiscal conservative enough.

STJ (the federal court which is one level below STF, the Supreme Court) decided that governor of Rio de Janeiro Wilson Witzel should be ousted because of corruption related to the purchase of equipments to hospitals for covid treatment. Pastor Everaldo, president of Witzel's party, was arrested because of this scandal. Witzel is a former Bolsonaro's ally who became an enemy, Everaldo did Bolsonaro's evangelic baptism.
There are lots of evidence of this corruption scandal. However, there was no reason for the justice to decide that the governor should be ousted. There is already an ongoing impeachment process in the State Assembly. It is possible that some judge of the STJ is trying to please Bolsonaro in order to get his appointment to the Supreme Court.

When venezuelans make big lines to buy basic food, this hunger is usually related to "socialism"

In this week, a package of 5 kg of rice, the most basic food in Brazil, is costing R$40 (=US$7.50) in the supermarkets in Brazil. This increase in the price happened because of the fall of producion in other exporting countries, and, so, the international price increased. The rise in the international price was transmited to the domestic market because of the end of the stocks policy. So, there is socialist hunger, but there is free-market hunger too.

Yikes, how much did inflation grew? 20%?

Inflation is still very low because of the low economic activity. The inflation of the year 2020 until July is 0.46%. The accumulated inflation in the last 12 months is 2.31%. But of course the rise of the food price in September will push the inflation, specially for the lower class, whose share of food in the total household budget is bigger.

One issue that became a conversation topic in Brazil this week was the interview of the famous singer Caetano Veloso in a talk show.
He told that during a long time of his life he was a liberal. He was exiled during the military dictatorship (1964-1985) becaue he was anti-authoritarism and not because he was a radical leftist. But recently, when he met the young communist youtuber Jones Manoel, fan of the italian historian Domenico Losurdo, Caetano Veloso discovered many hipocrisies of liberalism and started to have more sympaties to marxism. He realized how absurd it is to put Hitler and Stalin at the same level (what many liberals do), but of course, Caetano didn't become a Stalin's fan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSuSAaO5c80&t=1s

Bolsonaro's speech at the UN Assembly: no surprises, all this sh**t we have already expected, the target audience was neither the international community nor the brazilian people, but only his cattle

Ibope Poll September 20th
Evaluation of Bolsonaro administration
40% good, very good
29% regular
29% bad, very bad

One question: How can we assess, by the local election results in November, if Bolsonaro is really popular and rallying his base? His party isn't registered yet, right? And he doesn't have no more ties with the PSL, right?. Or should we look at the results for the junior parties in his coaltion: PSD, PSC, PP and others?

Well this seems like a major improvement for Bolsonaro, no?

Bolsonaro has no party, but most of the PSL candidates are his allies yet. In São Paulo, you should look the results of Celso Russomano. In Rio de Janeiro, you should look the results of Marcelo Crivella. Both are members of "Republicanos", a party of one of the biggest evangelic church, which is Bolsonaro's ally. Other parties that are Bolsonaro's allies are PSD, PSC, PP, as you mentioned, and NOVO, Patriota and Republicanos.

Yes, major improvement. The number of cases and deaths are declining, so, the pandemic is not the most important issue anymore. And many low-income people became satisfied with the R$600 monthly check during the pandemic. They don't know that this value was proposed by the opposition.

Bolsonaro is going to support candidates that are alligned with him, from multiple parties. For example, in Rio it’s likely his base will be inherited by incumbent Crivella (if he’s allowed to run and keeps his political rights). In São Paulo that person could be Russomano. Not sure about other cities yet, election campaigns start late here and usually last only 1 or 1.5 months.

Best way is probably looking at each State capital results to see how many of these people had Bolsonaro or his base’s blessing and support.

So is PSOL (lol) going to go anywhere in the upcoming federal election?

Also, can any Brazilian poster please tell me the difference between PSB, PMDB, and the other marginal , officially social democratic parties? I’m confused as to how such a fractured environment upon third way blairite parties exists. Also the green parties pls

PMDB (now MDB) = Big tent party that isn’t much defined by ideology. It’s probably the party people think when you think of a bland establishment politician. MDB usually supports whoever is in power so they can have influence. It was part of FHC PSDB government in the 90s but then it was also part of Lula and Dilma’s PT government until Temer assumed.

PSB = Center-left party, although not usually considered “as left” as PT/PCdoB/PSOL. It’s probably best compared to PDT, the other center-left party (who ran Ciro Gomes in 2018 for president). Didn’t support anyone in 2018 due to PDT vs PT conflict but now they have a deal with PDT for the municipal elections where one will support the other depending who is stronger on each city.

REDE (Sustainability Network)= Brazil’s environmental party, ran Marina Silva on 2018. There’s also another Green Party (PV) but they don’t have the same reputation of caring about environment since Marina is probably the biggest “authority” in the country when it comes to that subject. REDE is kinda center-leftish, is in the PDT and PSB deal too but it’s not as “loyal” (REDE will run a candidate in Rio, which already had a PDT one).

PSDB = Despite the Social-Democratic in the name, it’s a Center-Right party that used to be in the top 2 biggest parties, always rivaling with PT. But they kinda had a small collapse post-2014 and their base evaporated, they radicalized and voted for Bolsonaro in their desperation to take PT out of power. Only relevant name they have nowadays is probably the Governor of São Paulo, João Doria. Doria supported Bolsonaro for president in 2018 to get elected but now they’re against each other since Doria has ambitions to run in the future.

PSD = Fisiological party that doesn’t have a defined ideology but it’s center-right leaning. Parties name mean nothing in Brazil, so don’t assume anything from the social-democracy in their name. PSD politicians (along with many other parties) are just there for the sake of using the balance of power in their favor. If president gives them special favors, they will support the president and if he doesn’t they will be against him. This group of fisiological parties is called “Centrão” around here and because it’s impossible for any president from any ideology to achieve a majority without this group of fisiological parties, they always manage to have A LOT of influence into the government.

Dilma was impeached because she lost the support of “Centrão” in congress after she refused to help the ex-president of congress with his justice problems. Bolsonaro, knowing that it’s the support of centrão that decides your fate regardless of what you do, started getting much closer to that group after weakening signs of his government in the start of the pandemic. Now he looks more stable because he is giving them favors.

Problem of “Centrão” is that they’re necessary for presidents to have governance but the price paid is very high. And if you don’t attend them, they can suddenly turn against you. It’s a problem of having TOO many different parties. I think around 6 or 7 would be the ideal to end these fisiological ones and force parties to actually be for something.

The strongest base of PSOL is Rio de Janeiro, but representative Marcelo Freixo, who lost in the runoff agianst Crivella in 2016, decided not to run. He has a problem: high floor and low ceiling. He considered that he would go to the runoff easily, but the probabily to loose to Crivella in a runoff is very high. Crivella's aproval rate is low, but the rejection to Freixo is big. Many people living in poor neighborhoods of the city is evangelic and dislike Freixo because he supports cannabis legalization and the teaching of issues related to LGBT at schools. PSOL has a not so famous candidate in 2020: Renata Souza. The strongest candidates in Rio de Janeiro are Marcelo Crivella, Eduardo Paes, Martha Rocha and Benedita da Silva.
Guilherme Boulos, who ran for president in 2018, is polling well in São Paulo. But his probability to win is low.
PSOL has a good chance to win the city of Belém-PA. Edmílsion is the candidate and he was already the mayor when his party was PT.

Certainly from earlier this year when the virus was at peak intensity.

Last Ibope poll was conducted in December 2019, before the pandemic. It showed 29% good/very good. Ibope doesn't interview people using cell phones. Ibope visits people in their homes. That's why they conducted no polls during the peak of the pandemic. Other polls, which used cell phones, showed that Bolsonaro lost popularity during the early months of the pandemic, and then recovery at higher levels than before the pandemic.

Bolsonaro is now gaining support from lower income groups that voted against him in 2018. That gain in support is significant and growing since June because of the monthly financial help the poor are receiving during the coronavirus pandemic.

Meanwhile, he was losing support at the start of the pandemic with the more affluent groups who elected him because they were tired of all the daily scandals and his disregard for the pandemic (Brazilian elites are dumb so they expected him to be “controlled”). Bolsonaro wanted a coup at a point in the pandemic and tried to interfere in the Supreme Court but when the military made it clear behind closed doors they wouldn’t get behind this, Bolsonaro stopped getting into constant attack mode to preserve himself otherwise he could’ve gotten the chop if he kept antagonizing the congress and the judiciary. So he “moderated“ his discourse (Not really, he just stays more quiet nowadays) since June and that somewhat controlled his trend of losing support with upper and middle classes, which was aggravating at the start of the spread of Coronavirus.

To be popular in Brazil you basically just need to give people some money and keep your mouth shut in regards to public appearances, while sucking up to the interest of established powers and majority of people will like you well enough lol. Assistencialism to the poor and “boring” predictability that doesn’t frighten the markets to the elites, trying to balance each other because if you spend too much cash to help the poor, the elites get mad. And if you’re not enough of a populist and is too bland then you won’t be embraced by the poor either.

Until people find out you sucked up TOO much to the political establishment, then everyone gets mad and accuse you of being the biggest corrupt of all time even if that always happens because it’s a systematic structural problem. You gotta have reform that takes money out of politics, limit the number of parties, etc.

I don’t feel like Brazilian democracy is at risk of ending right now in the present, but I think Brazil can become another Hungary depending how much time Bolsonaro stays in power. Orbán was a 10 year project after all. Bolsonaro wished for a coup but since the institutions stopped him, he’s now taking the route of continuously weakening institutions so that they can be destroyed at some point. If he were to lose reelection, I just can’t imagine he would simply accept leaving in a peaceful manner, but I hope Institutions will be strong enough in order to not allow this to be something he can control.

Judge Celso de Mello will retire because he reached 75, so, in this age, there is the compulsory retire (actually, he decided to retire one month before the deadline). He was one of the most critic to Bolsonaro. Now, Bolsonaro has the opportunity to appoint a judge to the Supreme Court. He has already promised to his base a "terrivelmente evangelico" judge. The name needs an approval of the Senate.

Brazil was mentioned by Biden in the debate. Not in the best way.
Brazil is not doing well in preserving the rain forest.

Biden talked about giving 20 Billion to Brazil to preserve the forest or else economic consequences would be faced (aka: sanctions).

I see it more of a warning to put pressure on Bolsonaro while also shifting the responsibility to somewhere else in front of his public. Like in a “Hey sure should do better regarding climate change here but look at Brazil right now, they’re the ones to blame”.

The idea is basically just to put money so that they can have any say regarding what happens in the forest and can give punishments if their say isn’t met. Of course Bolsonaro would refuse to participate on that. It isn’t a good plan for anyone (US or Brazil) but it’s good that Biden is putting the country’s name out there on a negative light because it adds pressure from other multiple sectors that do concern Bolsonaro a lot.

If Trump loses, Bolsonaro will have lost his only meaningful ally and will be isolated since a lot of his positions are kinda more validated on the outside by being similar to what the US president says. He will be forced to change and actually do sh**t (an ideological loss for him and his base) or risk making the country a complete pariah on international stage since all the biggest world leaders will be against him lmao. And that wouldn’t be good for Brazil’s economy, which would stimulate a response from market types and elites who elected him and he wouldn’t get re-elected, so he loses in that scenario as well.

But if Trump wins, that would be remarkable validation for Bolsonaro, both domestically and internationally.

Bolsonaro chose federal judge Kassio Nunes to occupy Celso Mello's place in the Supreme Court. Many supporters and opponents of Bolsonaro though he would appoint a far-right name. But it didn't happen. Maybe, because Bolsonaro perceived that the Senate would not approve a far-right judge.

I don’t buy that “senate won’t pass” excuse he is giving to his supporters that are disappointed with his choice because it isn’t someone conservative enough. Senate would pass almost anyone, as long as they had some minimum curriculum. Bolsonaro is on the hands of “Centrão” now since that moment around June when his popularity was decreasing because of Covid and his private intentions of a coup against the judiciary failed when the military pushed it off the table.

It became clear to him that if he kept with his “anti-politics”  position against everyone he would isolate himself only for the purpose of energizing his base. So he “moderated” and decided to do what everyone who wins the presidency has to do if they want to survive politically: give what “Centrão” wants and become more “pro-establishment”. Otherwise, everyone would easily join forces to get rid of him.

That Supreme Court nomination is all about two things: nominating someone supported by “Centrão” and someone that has a more anti-punishment leaning and will likely protect people like his son, Flávio Bolsonaro, who are involved in corruption scandals.

Honestly, I don’t give a damn about the choice, it’s the usual business from always. It’s really funny to watch from the sidelines how pathetic the Brazilian right is though, bragging for a year that the left would go mad whenever Bolsonaro nominated the first “wildly conservative and evangelical” Supreme Court minister that they never had and now they’re the ones making a scandal online because their president nominated a boring establishment guy who will defend corrupts instead. And who is catholic too, not an evangelical at all. ;P

If there’s one luck Brazilian left has is that Brazilian right is too stupid and pathetically ideological, because they had potential to be more dangerous as well. These people only dream they were like the Republicans in the US always getting final word against Democrats, they ignore the particularities of where they live. They really believed they would get a right wing anti-system revolution with a guy who was always a parasite in the system in his whole life with tons of public benefits lmaooo. I almost feel bad for them ripping their hair off thanks to this Supreme Court minister nomination because it must suck to waste so much passion believing in something just to have five years later THIS be the result of such work.

What does that mean?

“Centrão“ literally translates to “Big Center”, an union of fisiological parties in congress without a defined ideology but who use the balance of power to benefit themselves since every president who wants to do anything or even politically survive, must get their support in order to have a majority on congress.

I had explained it more here:

His most popular opponent, Lula is unable to run.

Who is that? If it’s Lula you may have missed the news but the Supreme Court released him out of jail in 2019. He is free but without political rights, at least for now because there are possible developments on the horizon...

Supreme Court is scheduled to analyze the Lula trial and decide whether Sérgio Moro (judge who sent Lula to jail) was partial or not after the revelations that came out from “The Intercept Brasil”, with leaked messages of Moro. If they decide Moro was partial, Lula would regain his political rights.

I don’t think Lula is the only opponent Bolsonaro has though. Bolsonaro is worried about a possible campaign of Sérgio Moro himself, who he fired during the pandemic due to Moro accusing him of illegally trying to interfere inside Brazilian federal police (Bolsonaro tried to do it to protect his sons from justice). Moro would win votes from the right if he were to run.

The Brazilian right who elected Bolsonaro is now very divided. There are the remaining Bolsonaro supporters and also a growing base that supports Sérgio Moro and is now very against president Bolsonaro because they feel he betrayed them by abandoning the “anti-corruption” agenda represented by Moro for the sake of protecting his family from corruption.

There is actually a right wing protest scheduled for this next Sunday against Bolsonaro lmao. It’s basically the anti-corruption “Car-wash” Sérgio Moro base that is angry about the Supreme Court nomination and the president government. They consider Bolsonaro a “traitor”.

Meanwhile, even from the left, Lula is not the only option. Ciro Gomes could be a conciliatory name for those who just want to end polarization. If the PT were to not run anyone in 2022 just to back Ciro from the background, Ciro would come quite strong (think of Cristina Kirchner running as Fernández VP in Argentina for comparison). The left still has lots of dialogue and organization to do between themselves though. Both Lula and Ciro want to be protagonists, or at least in Lula’s case, he wants his party to be.

Don’t forget the prescience of COVID 19.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/15/brazil-police-cash-jair-bolsonaro-ally-buttocks-chico-rodrigues (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/15/brazil-police-cash-jair-bolsonaro-ally-buttocks-chico-rodrigues)

That money he stole and put inside his posterior openings was supposed to go to victims of COVID, which makes this story even more disturbing.

Father of the new governor of the state of Santa Catarina is a history teacher who supports neonazi ideas and holocaust denial
Daniela Reinehr was the vice governor of Santa Catarina and became the governor after governor Carlos Moises was impeached. During the inauguration, she was asked by the media about her father's ideas. She just answered that she supports free speech and that she lives in harmony in her family despite differences of ideas. She didn't condem her father's ideas.

Santa Catarina is located in the south of Brazil and is the state which has the biggest population with german ancestry. They are descendants of german immigrants who came to Brazil in the late 19th century and early 20th century. Most of the germans in Santa Catarina are not like germans in Germany in the 21st century. In the cities of Blumenau and Pomerode, most important german colonies in Brazil, Bolsonaro had more than 80% of the votes in the runoff in 2018, while german media has a very negative view on Bolsonaro (of course!). I am not saying that these germans in the south of Brazil are neonazi, but in the average, they are much more conservative than the germans in Germany.
Not all german brazilians are reactionar. The name of the president of the Workers Party (PT) is Gleisi Hoffman. She is from Paraná, another state in the south of Brazil.

Glenn Grennwald is not in the Intercept Brasil anymore because this newspaper refused to publish an article against Hunter Biden

Results of the US election give me hope and dread about this country’s next two years.

Hope = Populists or right wing allies of Bolsonaro are falling down everywhere. Macri was kicked from Argentina last year and now in 2020 it’s Trump, who Bolsonaro always tried to model himself after and use as an excuse to get away with much of the garbage he spews. Now he is completely isolated in a continent where current trend is to move left (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, USA, soon Ecuador...)

Dread = Biden still sucks and I don’t trust him when it comes to Latin America foreign policy. Brazil under Bolsonaro is currently the biggest pro-US country in the region, supporting stuff like interfering in Venezuela, which both US parties are in favor of. I could see Biden siding with Bolsonaro because of that. And if he goes the complete opposite way (and be radically opposition to Bolsonaro), that would be terrible to the country as well even if it has the silver lining of weakening Bolsonaro.

I can understand the Brazilians celebrating the Biden win simply for the sake of owning Bolsonaro because his BFF lost, we’re all at a point where “If Bolsonaro is sad, I’m happy”. But situation will still be very complicated and it isn’t guaranteed we will be able to get rid of that monster ourselves at all.

Usually, this result would not make a difference in Brazil. Democratic US presidents have very good relations with right-wing governments in Latin America. But now, there is a different situation in Brazil. We don't have a government on the right. We have a government on the far-right. Bolsonaro lost a very close friend. Only Netanyahu, Orban and Morawiecki remain.
Probably, the elites will increase the pressure on Bolsonaro to behave like a generic right-wing president, like Sebastian Piñera, Lacalle Pou, Mario Benitez, Ivan Duque and Martin Vizcarra. The alt-right wing in Bolsonaro's administration (Ernesto Araújo, Ricardo Sales and Damares) will become more isolated in the world. We still don't know if Bolsonaro will adapt to this new scenario or if he will like to stay isolated.

Yeah, it usually doesn’t really matter at all to Brazil who wins US elections but the Trump-Bolsonaro association with the fascist global movement changed this in the new scenario.

On one hand, I actually was okay with Trump isolationism as a whole, less US presence on the world is always more good than not. Biden will be the same old, which ehhh. But seeing fascism get weaker globally and consequentially Bolsonaro, made me lean towards preferring Biden even if I don’t trust him at all.

All democratic presidents have supported the right-wingers in Latin America but Bolsonaro is a very special and more extreme case so I’m curious to see what happens. What you say is probably right, Biden will likely try to be mostly friendly to Bolsonaro but keeping a safe distance in order to not intoxicate himself and also putting pressures in private conversations in regards the environment. Bolsonaro will moderate somewhat in the environment because it’s not like he has other friends at this point, since he fights with everyone, and that’s it. It will probably be that boring.

Even then, the notion of a US president with the intention of pushing a Brazilian one to the progressive left, even if in one specific issue only, is kinda of mindblowing to me lol. Last time I can think of something similar is during late 70s, when Jimmy Carter (the last US president who was worth something) wanted explanations about human right abuses in the military dictatorship.

That’s why part of me still believes Biden will end up being mostly friends with Bolsonaro just for the sake of interfering in Venezuela. But I’m happy it’s not Trump.

Yes, there is a paralell to Jimmy Carter. He increased the pressure on general Ernesto Geisel in order to increase political openness.

Biden will know how much Bolsonaro was one of Trump's biggest cheerleaders.

For that reason alone, I doubt that they will be too pally.

Jimmy Carter >>> Joe Biden though. The left celebrating Biden’s victory way too much after everything he said in regards to Brazil and/or Latin America is a bit nauseating to me honestly, people are so traumatized because only political disasters happen since 2015 that the small hint of a shift domestically and Bolsonaro more sad and isolated is enough for them to exaggerate and act like you cannot criticize Biden at all.

Which is understandable at the moment, but I hope these people don’t act like voting for Sérgio Moro, who is responsible for a lot of this mess of the rise of fascism (and why it’s more common to see judges acting like they’re GODS), is someone we should be excited for in order to defeat Bolsonaro. A Moro vs Bolsonaro is the only scenario I would refuse to vote for anyone. Any other scenario I would vote against Bolsonaro.

Criticism is important in order for people to not lose perspective. I think the symbolism is very important but it’s not everything.

Ernesto Geisel > Jair Bolsonaro
Geisel launched the 2nd national development plan in order to keep the high GDP growth after the 1973 oil shock. Most of the investment of this plan was conducted by state owned enterprises. Geisel recognized PR China and not Taiwan as the true China. Geisel was in the same side of Fidel Castro in the civil war in Angola: he recognized the MPLA government. Geisel was closer to the arabs than Israel in the Middle East conflict. Geisel made an agreement with FR Germany in order to import technology to build the Angra nuclear power plant. Geisel tried to increase trade with Japan, European Community and even the eastern european communist bloc in order to become more independent of the USA.
During the disagreement between Jimmy Carter and Ernesto Geisel, the brazilian left didn't know which side to choose. On one side, Jimmy Carter was trying to push the end of the dictatorship. On the other side, Geisel was trying to have a more nationalist approach to the economy and to the foreign policy.
Bolsonaro is very different. He supports Chicago economics. He is an underdog in foreign policy. He will not appeal to anti-american leftists if Biden criticizes his administration.

I agree in regards to the 70s, even if I think the end of dictatorship was the priority. The problem today is that I think the liberal left is making a lot of assumptions that Biden will antagonize Bolsonaro and not try to use his pro-US positions on their favor now that most of Latin America is swinging left.

So... tests for the Coronavac vaccine, realized in partnership between São Paulo’s Instituto Butantan and the Chinese company Sinovac, are the most advanced ones being realized in Brazil. Expectations is that it would be ready before the Oxford vaccine, which is also realizing tests here in Brazil.

Government agency Anvisa suspended the trials yesterday though, after a voluntary died. But the cause of death was unrelated to the tests, the person in case committed suicide!

Bolsonaro has been a champion of the anti-vax movement and his base has been trying to delegitimize Coronavirus vaccines for a long while. For the Chinese they use xenophobic conspiracy that Chinese government wants to kill people, for the Oxford one they use conspiracy about Bill Gates financing the vaccine and having a long time project of wanting to permanently alter the DNA of all humanity.

Now Bolsonaro is celebrating a suicide for stopping the tests and trying to relate the death to vaccine, as if the person was stimulated to commit suicide because of the vaccine! All this because the merits of the vaccination would go to the São Paulo Governor, who articulated with the Chinese to do the tests. Bolsonaro is an egomaniac narcissist playing with the lives of millions of Brazilians without any conscience, a genocidal!

On November 19th, a black man was killed in a Carrefour supermarket in Porto Alegre after he was punched by two guards from a private security firm that works for the supermarket. A discussion inside the supermarket might have started the fight. Carrefour supermarkets in Brazil had already previous problem related to private guards using to much violence against people who tried to steal things inside the supermarket.

It was the eve of the "Black Conscience Day", the anniversary of the execution of Zumbi dos Palmares, which took place at November 20th 1695. Zumbi was the leader of "Quilombo dos Palmares", a community of fugitive slaves. Zumbi became a symbol of the fight for racial justice.

Following Joe Biden / Kamala Harris example, I think that there will be a Ciro Gomes / Marina Silva ticket in the presidential election of 2022. He is an old moderate white man, who has a long experience in politics. She is a moderate black woman.

I support him but I think there’s no way that Ciro will be the unity candidate.

1. Ciro’s policies focus on industrialization and developmentalism and those are very dirty words for the right. For some specific right-wing sectors he’s seen as the worst option with chances, especially if PT goes with a moderate light candidate like Haddad already was. Because that’s someone they could manage better if elected, especially considering that anti-PT feeling would give them more leverage to control the PT government.

2. A good chunk of Brazilian left is extremely loyal to Lula and if the Ciro vs Lula political dispute intensifies, they will become even more anti-Ciro. PT’s biggest adversary is Ciro, just like Bolsonaro’s biggest danger is the center-right and that is reflected in the campaign that already started.

3. The mainstream media which is alligned with right and center-right types like Huck, Doria and Moro (which they call “moderate center”) dislikes Ciro as well, the only situation they support him is when he is having a dispute with PT. But in every other scenario they paint him in a very negative light.

4. The extreme right aligned with Bolsonaro wants to polarize between them and PT because they think that’s their best chance of winning. They want PT to be weak but not too weak that it fails to make runoff against someone else. So they will put their structures strongly against Ciro.

5. Ciro’s outspoken personality to say whatever he thinks without measuring the consequences makes him popular with his 10% loyal base but it is something that will be unpopular with the media and lots of regular people and there will be strong negative propaganda like it was before.

6. I don’t think Ciro will succeed in creating alliances centered on him. Won’t work if he focus on the left, PSOL and PCdoB are more likely to go towards PT. Won’t work if he focus on the center by forming a center left+center right alliance, center right will go to PSDB like it always has and support Doria even if he’s uncharismatic and has even lesser national recognition than Alckmin. Although the COVID vaccine in SP could help Doria, I guess. DEM will do the same and get behind Doria or run a candidate of themselves: Luciano Huck.

The Martha Rocha scenario is more likely, he will be attacked from all sides: right, left and center. He’s certainly more energetic than her and can defend himself much better, but I still have doubts if he will be able to manage it all.

There will simply not be one “Biden” and honestly, that is probably for the best since Bolsonaro was already a “Trump”. The right was already a failure because they followed US trends, people should just stop looking at that country for examples because nothing good comes out.

Ciro Gomes was speaking as if PT and Bolsonaro were equal evils: this is not very smart for someone who wants the support of PT voters. I agree with Ciro Gomes that a project for national development needs a broad supporting alliance which includes not only left-wing parties. But unlike Ciro, I think this alliance should not exclude PT.
This week, Ciro Gomes told that he doesn't want PT support and that he was looking for DEM and PSD to join PDT and PSB in his coalition. But I don't believe that the neoliberal DEM and PSD would support someone who propose a strong role for the state in the economic development.

Scenario for 2022

Far-right: Bolsonaro, of course. We still don't know if he will join Progressistas, Republicanos or PSL. I also include Amoedo in the group of far-right, but Novo did not well in the municipal elections in 2020.

Center-right: Possible names are João Doria (governor of São Paulo), Eduardo Leite (governor of Rio Grande do Sul), ACM Neto (mayor of Salvador), Rodrigo Maia (president of the House), Sérgio Moro (former judge and Bolsonaro's Minister of Justice) and Luciano Huck (TV star). The governor of São Paulo is always a natural candidate, since São Paulo has the biggest GDP and 22% of the country's population. But Doria has not high approval rate. Luciano Huck had friendship in the past with not so good people (Aécio Neves, Sergio Cabral, Sergio Moro, Eike Batista, Joesley Batista, Ricardo Electro and Robinho). He might become vulnerable in a campaign. Moro used to have support from the far-right, but this group considers him a betrayor.

PDT/PSB/Rede: I believe there will be a Ciro Gomes / Marina Silva ticket, although I don't believe they will be sucessful (Red Velvet and I explained why).

PT/PCdoB: Fernando Haddad (former mayor of São Paulo), Jacques Wagner (senator) or Flávio Dino (governor of Maranhão). Even if Lula have all his rights back, I don't belive he will try again, since he is very old and he knows that half of the population doesn't like him.

PSOL: No other name than Guilherme Boulos was mentioned until now. We don't know if Boulos will run again or if PSOL will make an alliance with PT in the 1st round

I see it as a 5-way dispute, maybe 4 or 6. Considering only the ones with a chance obvs, because as always there will be tons of people running.

1. Bolsonaro
2. Doria or random PSDB
3. Huck*
4. Ciro
5. PT
6. Boulos or random PSOL**

*unsure, but probably yes
**unsure, probably not in 2022

I think the Boulos hype is very “from the moment” and we need time to see if PSOL can really become a major alternative nationally. PT would be the most negatively affected if that happened, could destroy them. But PSOL could end up replacing the PT eventually considering the perception that PT became old and obsolete and PSOL is its younger version, so I don’t fully doubt it.

I don’t see Boulos living up to the current 5-6% in polls he is getting, especially in a very close race. But I am confident PSOL will run someone in order to excite their base and secure to reach the higher vote share that will be required for congress.

The center-right camp will have 2 major candidates, Doria and Huck. In their spectrum, Doria will be more of a right-wing candidate and Huck more of a center candidate, as he’s already wanting to paint himself as a progressive even though he voted Bolsonaro in 2018 “against PT” lol. Huck is more of a liberal, while Doria is a conservative even if way moderate compared to Brazilian far-right.

Moro will likely not run (thank god because a runoff with him is only scenario I would support Bolsonaro).

Doria is very unlikable even inside the PSDB and most of that PSDB vote already went to Bolsonaro in 2018, they need at least to get a significant chunk of it back to get to the runoff and ensure there is no big support for other candidates like NOVO or whatever else that might get significant support.

What could help Doria though:

1. Create an union of the center-right somehow, especially if the left stays divided. Put all the non-Bolsonaro right parties in an alliance, even bigger than the one PSDB managed to in 2018.

2. Bring Huck as his VP (even if I doubt he would leave Globo for anything less than the presidency). You add charisma to the ticket, which Doria desperately needs, while also getting rid of someone who is a major spoiler and can split the center-right vote.

3. The COVID Chinese vaccine in São Paulo being a success while the federal government fails in providing an accessible alternative to the rest of the country. Which tbh, is looking very possible since Bolsonaro likes anti-vaxxers. It would be better if Doria planned to aid other states than just São Paulo if he really wants to build a national profile though.

With a very fragmented left and these three other elements, I think Doria can very well easily make it. He just needs to oppose Bolsonaro like hell in order to get at least some of the PSDB vote back and go to the runoff.

Ciro needs a fragmented scenario and hope that his 12%, which seems very stable and loyal, can campaign hard and add at least some more votes from pragmatists. His attack strategy shows he is aware this is his only chance, I do think he is dividing the left away from the PT because he kinda needs to. PT would never accept alliance where they’re not in the top of the ticket.

Ciro needs to invest more on social media like PSOL though. A 16% vote intention for example, could very well be enough in a fragmented scenario where PSOL takes away votes from PT and the PSDB fails to gain excitement and center-right/right is divided between Doria, Huck and all those other smaller names like NOVO.

PT needs to at least hold most of their vote intention from 2018 and hope it will still be enough. Opportunistic media still uses them as a scarecrow. They’re in defense mode, which is why they basically mostly just respond to Ciro attacks or focus on nostalgia these days instead of focusing against the right-wing government or providing a new project for the future.

PT has unfortunately defined itself as a party of one personality instead of a major country project and those on a worldwide level, don’t manage to outlive their leader once they’re gone. New leaderships should’ve been given more space inside the party. Natural ones, not fabricated and forced by Lula ones like Dilma.

PSOL and Ciro Gomes are their biggest threats and if PSOL ever gets to prove itself as a threat to them in the national stage, it will get more hate from Lula’s most loyal supporters. But the PT itself would be forced to support them if that were ever to happen.

Bolsonaro will be on the runoff, so he just needs to think about strategy for that 2nd round. But an united center-right is his biggest threat if he loses popularity, most of that vote from PSDB in 2018 that he gained could go back to them or other center-right options. Bolsonaro also conveniently put some potential traitors inside his government and that could be interesting in the next two years, especially if they sabotage him to favor PSDB or “centrão”.

To what degree has the Brazilian mainstream center-right acclimated itself to Bolsonaro? If Bolsonaro is the most popular right-wing politician in the country (and assuming roughly 50/50 approval ratings, it means he has support from most rightists), would they even run a separate candidate?

There is a difference between center-right parties and center-right voters. Brazil has multiple parties so naturally there is competition from inside the right and left for protagonism. There isn’t one sole right or left entity party-wise. And PSDB used to be a national protagonist, they want that spot back.

PSDB’s João Doria wants the presidency and has become opposition against Bolsonaro especially after Coronavirus. Even though he capitalized on Bolsonaro vote in 2018. He knows his chance to win is weakening Bolsonaro, getting some votes back and going to the runoff.

That said, it isn’t a given that center-right voters will abandon Bolsonaro to vote for Doria, as you said. Many can feel if they abandon Bolsonaro for anyone, they can strengthen the left. But Bolsonaro isn’t a good president/administrator. Sustained himself in 2020 due to the Covid payments given to the poorer and shaky alliances with “Centrão”. It isn’t a given that he will be strong in two years, especially if he botches the vaccination plan nationally while Doria succeeds in São Paulo with the distribution of his vaccine.

Doria already announced that he will start vaccination in the state of São Paulo in January 25th and will allow ANY Brazilians who are in São Paulo soil to get it, regardless if they live somewhere else.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has no real plan other than vaguely suggesting vaccination will start in March, flirts with anti-vaxxers, let millions of Covid tests pass their expiration date because of lack logistics and now it is being reported that federal government will probably delay distribution of vaccines because they didn’t buy enough syringes and other necessary material in time. Optics could prejudice Bolsonaro and favor Doria, especially considering federal government could block the São Paulo vaccine just to politically prejudice Doria. That would anger some people, to see the president playing with their health to try to favor himself.

Besides, it’s not like Doria needs to get all Bolsonaro votes, just some enough in order to go to the runoff against him.

Old PSDB leaders consider PT and Bolsonaro equal evils. Acutally, I think that in private they consider Bolsonaro worse, but they don't demonstrate this view in public, because their party looks for similar voters. New PSDB leaders have better relation with Bolsonaro.
It is obvious that the non-Bolsonaro right will have its own candidate. PSDB and DEM leaders want to keep their parties alive. People who consider Bolsonaro good or very good is always between 30% and 40%, no more than this. But the left has a 30% ceiling. There is a large share of the Brazilian population who dislike both the left and Bolsonaro. The non-Bolsonaro right was the biggest winner of the 2020 municipal election.
If the 2022 presidential election has only one left-wing candidate and only one non-Bolsonaro right-wing candidate, it will be possible to keep Bolsonaro out of the runoff. But it is very hard for the parties to reach this agreement.

Only bad news in Brazil!
Most recent one: a male representative, who was walking behind a female representative, put his hands on her breasts in the São Paulo State Assembly. This is harassment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fzds3PkzsBY

A Supreme Court majority has decided that vaccination will be obligatory in Brazil, which doesn’t mean it will be forced.

“Obligatory” in a similar sense that voting is technically “mandatory”. Basically, if you refuse to take one, you suffer some sanctions/penalties as punishment for not fulfilling your civil duties. Probably will be stuff like government not providing documents like passports, or social benefits being canceled for those who receive it.

Still, it is a major blowback to Bolsonaro, who embraced the anti-vaxxers narrative of putting doubt about the vaccines safety. He initially tried to sabotage the SP Governor vaccine plan and now he’s trying to make a partnership in order to not get behind, but he still says he won’t vaccinate himself and that people can also just not take it if they don’t want. Making the vaccine “obligatory” changes this proposed path, so it’s good.

Indeed, one of Bolsonaro's anti-vax supporters has been chuntering on about "alligators" :)

Supreme Court is the one thing stopping this country from completely falling down to ground. Most of them were nominated during Lula and Dilma years, so Bolsominions are angry that they tend to be more progressive than they want, with stuff like pro-LGBT and pro-science decisions.

Bolsominions (Bolsonaro most fanatic voters) usually respond with calls to break democracy and close the Supreme Court with police force, whenever they make a decision they hate. They especially hate this vaccine decision because it goes against what Bolsonaro promised them. They spread many fake news about vaccines to incite more fear in the population to not take them, including things like “there is HIV in the vaccine” or “ it will alter your DNA”.

Bolsonaro stimulates these theories with comments such as the one he made yesterday in order to push away responsibility from him: “If you turn into an alligator, it’s your problem”. This man should be in prison whenever he’s out of government. I wish population was angrier enough to do much worse to him, after all the people he murdered with this response to the virus.

Just to think Brazil was a reference in vaccination just 10 years ago under the left wing government... The H1N1 was much weaker but the federal government response treated it more serious than current ones treat COVID-19. The right (domestic and international) is too incompetent and jealous, they only live to hate the others successes and progress. It’s easier to destroy what others made than construct something of your own, which is why they fully embrace anti-intellectualism.

President of the congress Rodrigo Maia (from DEM) has also done good work in blocking Bolsonaro more regressive agenda but Brazilian constitution doesn’t allow reelection for the president of congress and senate seats, both of which last only two years. His presidential term ends in February, let’s see whether he can articulate enough support in congress to elect a successor or if Bolsonaro will win the fight and elect his own chosen candidate: Arthur Lira (Progressistas).

Bolsonaro is playing a double game about vacines

The Ministry of Health will purchase the vacines produced in São Paulo by the chinese laboratory Sinovac because Bolsonaro needs to be accepted by the anti-left population in Brazil which is ~60% of the population. And sane people, no matter if is left, right or center, want to have the vacine.

On the other hand, Bolsonaro keeps the speech promoting a negative view on the Sinovac vacine to his fanatic followers, who are ~20% of the population. They believe everything coming from the PR China is evil.

Why did Brazil order Sinovac over Pfzer or Moderna Vaccine in the first place?
Was it cheaper?

Yes. Pfizer is very expensive and Brazil has no enough quantity of -70C freezers in order to keep the Pfizer vacines.

Even though, Brazil should have bough and should have tried to purchase the freezers. The losses related to the delay of the vacines are much higher than the price of Pfizer.

I think Moderna is mostly reserved for the US, UK, Canada and a few others to some European countries. Not sure, but I believe US bought almost all the stock in advance.

Pfizer deal wasn’t initially made with the government arguing that it was logistically impossible to distribute the vaccine since that one has to be stored in -70 Celsius degree freezers. But other Latin American countries bought it and Pfizer said they presented a solution for it so I think it’s partially the government’s bad will as well. I don’t trust Bolsonaro government to want the pandemic to end.

Btw, “Brazil” as a federal institution didn’t buy Sinovac vaccines, it bought Oxford ones.

Sinovac was an independent deal made by the São Paulo governor (João Doria from PSDB) with China, to Brazilian institutions to produce that vaccine in Brazil and distribute them to all citizens of the São Paulo state. Federal government vilified that vaccine for political reasons and is only NOW wanting to buy them from São Paulo government because Doria promised to vaccinate São Paulo in January and federal government doesn’t have other options. It would be very bad for Bolsonaro image if only São Paulo got vaccinated due to a initiative from a political adversary of his, while other states have no vaccine and see São Paulo get vaccinated. That’s why Bolsonaro is pretending to care about vaccination now, political reasons.

Federal government bought tons of Oxford vaccines months ago and acted like it was a done deal and they wouldn’t have to worry about vaccines anymore. Probably they liked how it was much cheaper and also assumed it would be the first to come out because it looked so months ago. When the smartest path would be to not rely on one single vaccine, I would’ve bought a smaller moderate amount from each different vaccine. That way you ensure at least the vaccination of groups under risk starts the moment first vaccine is approved, while also getting to see which works best for the future.

Now, with the delays and questions of Oxford vaccine, Federal government is forced to rely on the Chinese vaccine they vilified lmao. It’s actually funny, but without the laughter and with more deaths. Hopefully the fact Bolsonaro ignored the seriousness of the pandemic will make people angrier with all this vaccination saga but Brazilian fatalism mentality, somewhat inherited from a catholic religious background, makes me not eager to put all my bets on that backlash. But it could maybe happen.

So, Rio's still incumbent mayor, Marcelo Crivella, was arrested today because of alleged bribery scheme in city hall.

He's also been accused of using IURD, Universal Church of the Kingdom of God, for money laundering.

I give it two weeks max for him to be released.

But good news, I guess. The conservative moralist right is crumbling.

I hope Crivela and his fellows get investigated and judged, but the arest was not necessary. It is possible to arest someone before the sentence if someone is too dangerous outside the jail. If there is the danger to disturb the investigation, to harm the collection of evidence, for example. This doesn't seem to be the case of Crivela. The arest looked like a theater.

Totally was, especially considering he was released today and put under home arrest.

That said, these abuse of powers and “theater arrests” designed for the media have been fully normalized at this point and people have validated it because they like seeing politicians they dislike go to jail. No one cared about the sensationalism of Lula’s “arrest” so why act concerned when conservatives get arrested? Their activists are the ones who accepted this justice insurrection and punitivism (penal populism) because it was politically convenient to them when the government was a left wing one.

Now that it’s conservatives in power they act the complete opposite and turn against the “justice” they elevated, call for the closure of the judiciary and attack the same police system they used in their favor. I have no sympathy for Crivella or any conservative who gets punished (like the conservative journalist that was also arrested and had to go to hospital after getting hurt in jail).

They’re the ones who rallied behind “Car-Wash” with no criticism and wanted to punish all the corrupt system. Well, they’re the corrupt system now and they will see the consequences of the logic that they validated since far-right “Bolsonarismo” is also increasingly hated by the establishment, even if I think the left had it way worse in 2015-2016.

If you put a bland establishment person from PSDB, DEM or MDB though, they would never face that kind of intimidation, no matter how corrupt they are. Like, look at Michel Temer getting away even with all the evidences against him simply because he was a figure more politically convenient to the elites interests.

If supporters of Bolsonaro made a mea-culpa about their own role in the dystopia we live in, maybe we could have a discussion about political imprisonments but for them it’s only “political” when it’s against someone on their ideologies side. So let them drown in their own tears, I say. Flávio Bolsonaro could be very well next and at this point, I will celebrate it. Destroy these people with the same weapons they used, then we worry about solving this “penal populism” problem.

Mexico, Chile and Costa Rica have started vaccination with Pfizer vaccine. Argentina starts next week.

Meanwhile, despite having similar infrastructure as these four countries, Brazil doesn’t even have a date prediction. São Paulo state governor plan is to start with the Chinese SinoVac in January 25th but federal government has no plan. No deal with Pfizer was announced. They don’t give a damn.

The hate I feel for these people is hard to be described. A mix of incompetents + Anti-vaxxers and sympathizers leading the country and sabotaging it. I can only hope it will come back in their faces somehow, even if the same level of damage they caused is impossible to be matched. Monsters. Murderers.

Argentina’s approval of abortion gives me more hope for the future. It would never pass here in congress, especially under Bolsonaro, but I could see the Supreme Court doing it.

In Uruguay it’s already legal and Chile will soon have a new constitution, in which the topic could be touched on!

Brazil has similar history and backgrounds with these three. Also, in Argentina abortion will be FREE for anyone who looks for it. In Uruguay today I think it’s limited to their own citizens, which doesn’t have that much effect because if you travel there from the exterior, you can’t get it.

I could see this stimulating more tourism of Brazilian pregnant women to see the Iguaçu Falls in the border. And that’s a good thing because it normalizes and weakens the anti-abortion movement.

In 1977, divorce was finally allowed in Brazil because too many people were traveling to Uruguay to get it lmao. I can see it a similar thing happening with abortion.

Argentina really is a great country of trailblazers for Latin America. Love them. I never forget they were the first to allow gay marriage in 2010, opening the door for Brazil and Uruguay to do it in 2013, Colombia in 2016, Ecuador in 2019 and Costa Rica in 2020.

TBF, we got divorce a lot later, in 1987. Perón passed a divorce law during a period when he was against the Church but that bill was revoked less than a year later during one of the many military governments

Getting a divorce in Paraguay was fairly common

When they were candidates, Lula and Dilma didn't endorse the legalization of abortion because they didn't want to loose support of the poor religious people. Heloísa Helena doesn't support legal abortion.

Yesterday, president of PT Gleisi Hoffman and president of PSOL Juliano Medeiros sent congratulations for Argentina because of the legalization of abortion. Some progress is going on. Probably, in the next years, there will be no room for anti-abortion left anymore.

An artist built a huge vagina in a natural landscape in the rural area of the state of Pernambuco. This vagina has a 33 meter length, 16 meter width and 6 meter depth https://www.metropoles.com/entretenimento/artista-faz-vagina-de-33-metros-em-pernambuco-veja-diva-de-juliana-notari

That must have involved a fair bit of fannying around.

(sorry)

After the tests, the Coronavac vaccine, produced in a partnership between chinese laboratory Sinovac and Butantan (research institute in the University of São Paulo) reached a 78% efficacy. Butantan requested the authorization of Anvisa (Brazilian FDA). Fiocruz (another research institute) is producing the Oxfort AstraZeneca and also requested the authorization of Anvisa.
Maybe, the vaccination will start in the end of January.

Ford Motors will shut all the 3 factories in Brazil.
Some of the explanation is the reestructuring of the firm since the world demand for its vehicles is declining.
But Ford will keep the factories in Argentina and Uruguay.

Just like at the start of the pandemic, the city of Manaus (and the Amazonas state as a whole) is seeing another collapse of their health system, with hospitals not being able to attend everyone and people dying in their homes.

Amazonas is home to most of the Amazon rainforest and majority of Indigenous communities in Brazil. Indigenous communities are in grave danger. Unlike what happened to some level in the beginning of the pandemic, people will not be willing to stay home again.

Unfortunately, Amazonas is home to lots of Bolsonaro-friendly politicians who didn’t care about going for even mild safety precautions that could help control the pandemic. Things look very dire for them for the next month or two.

Amazonas encapsules pretty well Brazil’s and Bolsonaro’s failure during the coronavirus because of unwillingness to act. Even if the state tends to be more isolated from the rest of the country and have less infrastructure, there were ways to prevent this. The images coming from there are chilling.

Manaus is trying to import Oxygen from Venezuela because the Brazilian government does nothing. Celebrities are also trying to help by buying oxygen themselves to donate.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jaarreaza/status/1349867243472121857

Thanks to Venezuela for the humanitarian aid!

Situation is the most devastating I’ve seen since the beginning of the pandemic. Shocking images.

Rumours that a "new Covid variant" is causing this devastation.

It’s a virus variation more contagious and deadly than anything the world has seen so far...

In March 2020, the government of Amazonas ordered a lockdown, like all the state governments in Brazil. There was a protest against this lockdown, which was not cancelled, but was not taken very seriously. There was a disaster in many state capitals in Brazil, but the worst disaster in April and May 2020 took place in Manaus (capital of Amazonas). There was not enough space in the cemiteries.
Many people though wrongly that Manaus had already achieved the herd immunization, considering the disaster of April/May.
But cases started to rise again in November. The government of Amazonas decided for another lockdown in December. There were protests supported by Eduardo Bolsonaro, Alexandre Garcia (pro-Bolsonaro journalist). The state government cancelled. In January 2021, the disaster came again.
Murders! The lesson of April 2020 was not learned.

There were big panelaços (cacerolazos) in Brazilian big cities this evening. The possibility of impeachment is being debated again.

Yeah, there was going to be a lockdown in Manaus in December but Bolsonaro supporters alongside some business owners pressured not to. And the governor of Amazonas is aligned with these people. Manaus/Amazonas had already shown to be Brazil’s most fragile area in the start of the pandemic last year, they were the only place that kinda collapsed.

North region of Brazil tends to be more isolated from the rest of the country because of the rainforest and with a city as big as Manaus the situation is even worse because it’s a big urban population surrounded by tons and tons of just forest. Other cities/towns either aren’t as big or as geographically isolated as Manaus.

Now this is a bloodbath. Much worse than what happened last year.

That said, if opposition was really motivated to get him out, they would go to the streets and make more noise than the crazy fanatics no matter what. You see people protesting or going to political rallies everywhere in the world but here and I would argue situation here is more critical than in many of these places. Although concern is valid, the pandemic is kinda being used as an excuse for lack of engagement.

I think this is mostly Brazil in hangover mode post 2014-2018. Some people are tired just to think about going through that political chaos again, even the ones against the government. And others who also despise Bolsonaro would rather wash their hands and have the country be destroyed by that incompetent monster in order to punish population as a whole for putting a fascist in.

And yet, Bolsonaro is still somewhat popular:

Exame/Ideia poll:  (https://exame.com/brasil/exame-ideia-vacinacao-esta-atrasada-mas-aprovacao-de-bolsonaro-vai-a-37/)

Bolsonaro's job approval rating:

37% Approve (+2)
37% Disapprove (nc)
24% Neither approve or disapprove (-1)

Bolsonaro's cabinet approval rating:

38% Good/Excellent (+2)
34% Bad/Awful (-1)
27% Average (nc)

Poll conducted between 11 and 14 January 2021. Polled 1,200 voters. MoE of 3.00%.

He is very popular AND unpopular too if that makes sense. Kinda like Trump, but without the two-partisan divide that makes shifts impossible.

Last Covid relief money sent to people was in the end of December. Will give more time but I don’t expect to fall too much in the short term.

From what I see, the base of his support is within the middle class right now. It was the upper classes who voted for him in 2018 but many turned against him (it’s a demographic that tends to pay much more level attention to political news) and mostly hate his guts. The “panelaço” is common type of protest in high-income neighborhoods, which was the case yesterday.

Upper class also didn’t receive the Covid relief money like others did. Which makes more understandable that the bulk of Bolsonaro’s base is in the middle class right now. People who have a somewhat decent standard of living and also some may have received the Covid relief.

Lower classes aren’t behind Bolsonaro like the middle class is, but I would say there’s more of a divide now compared to the 2018, when they were the demographic most strongly against him. So his support increased with them, likely thanks to the Covid relief. Many people didn’t change their behavior during the pandemic and the money relief came as an “extra luxury” to a significant amount so not surprising.

()

This is a different poll from another institute, done in January 6th and encapsules pretty well the divide between demographics.

()

No writer could’ve written this: After Venezuela, the only other country to send help to Manaus in order to contain the Covid crisis is China.

The two countries villified by the Bolsonaro government. Lmao I love the irony of it all. Venezuela and China are doing more for Brazil than its own president.

Meanwhile, Brazilian ministry of health is spreading misinformation about the coronavirus, defending early treatment with unconfirmed medicine like chloroquine, and they got “censored” by Twitter:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidNemer/status/1350612866974560259

Ministry of Health isn’t trustworthy when it comes to COVID-19 information. This is Brazil now.

Twitter did the same to one of Bolsonaro’s tweets but these bastards still won’t block him, they’re emboldening him and allowing stuff that will kill people to be spread. Tons of paid bots in that platform trying to shape public narrative in Bolsonaro favor and also helping movements in other countries, such as the US and the capitol revolt.

These bigtech people from Silicon Valley should be in jail. They’re the main root of most of the problems.

I'm sure that Bolsonaro would be an outright virus denier if he thought he could get away with it.

Vaccination finally started in Brazil today with the Chinese vaccine, thanks to the effort of São Paulo governor João Doria (PSDB) in the middle of inaction and general bad will from the federal government.

First vaccinated was Mônica Calazans, a 54 year old nurse from São Paulo:

https://mobile.twitter.com/thiamparo/status/1350873931796852739
If Doria hadn’t brought the Chinese vaccine to the country, there would be no pressure for federal institutions to start anything, because they were more worried about Doria getting the political benefits and them being under a negative spotlight than actually saving lives.

Brazilian government and the minister of health had projected vaccination to start only in March and used BUREAUCRATIC excuses for the long time. These people probably have orgasms the more this country falls into chaos and people die.

A simple governor managed to get this two months earlier and if we had competent national leadership, it would have started even earlier, around two or three weeks ago.

It’s honestly a shame to have these evil trash leading the country. Brazil is the country of Latin America that could’ve been developing and fabricating vaccines to export to our neighbors, but with these people in charge we’re not even getting enough for ourselves because government didn’t care about buying vaccines or even adopting minimal safety measures like social distancing. They instead stimulated the exact opposite.

This country will go nowhere if these people don’t eventually end up in jail. I don’t doubt many of these monsters feel pleasure in seeing lots of people die, old people dying sure must be great in order to spend less with social security and poor people dying also must be good because they’re lazy according to our economy minister, so less social benefits to be sent.

New poll concerning Bolsonaro’s government approval, from XP/Ipespe. Brazilians who say his government is...

Good/Great - 32% (-6)
Regular - 26% (+1)
Bad/Awful - 40% (+5)

This just after the coronavirus stimulus help ended in the end of December and also with the deliberate federal delay for the vaccination.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EleicoesEUA/status/1351202643931234309

LMAO the governor of São Paulo from PSDB is now attacking president Bolsonaro in English translation as well, probably to make an international name for himself. Also to position himself as a big opposition name.

https://www.twitter.com/jdoriajr/status/1351299016991105025
That was in response to a comment Bolsonaro made today, that it’s the armed forces that always get to decide whether a country is a democracy or a dictatorship. He always makes these kinds of statements whenever he feels politically threatened and being humiliated by a simple governor in the vaccine race must be really tough to Bolsonaro.

I’m not mad about trashing Bolsonaro to a larger audience though. Doria will run in 2022 and while this vaccine thing might give him a nice narrative boost, it will be an uphill for him. XP/Ipespe also released a poll for 2022 today:

https://www.twitter.com/EleicoesEUA/status/1351209584329895937
Reminding this is all speculative and many of these people, such as Moro or Mandetta, will not run.

This was bound to happen after the Manaus collapse, the vaccine political dispute being lost to Doria AND the end of the monthly stimulus money sent to the poorer Brazilians:

Bolsonaro Approval Ratings drop from 37% to 26% according to new EXAME poll. (https://exame.com/brasil/exame-ideia-aprovacao-de-bolsonaro-despenca-de-37-para-26/)

Opinion of the Bolsonaro government:
Approval - 26%
Disapproval - 45%
Neutral (neither approves or disapproves) - 25%
Doesn’t Know - 4%

Significant changes compared to the EXAME poll released just one week ago!

The historical peak of his disapproval was in May/June 2020, when disapproval reached 54% and approval got to 20%. That was in the start of the pandemic, when he was acting like a clown AND making threats against democracy.

But for the rest of 2020, his approval got on an upwards trend because of the start of the Covid stimulus money (lasted from June until December) and also a strategic moderation in Bolsonaro’s rhetoric. He stopped making public threats and got closer to “centrão”.

2nd semester was a good period for him but January 2021 is being a nightmare, probably the worst since he started. Too much bad press hitting at the same time. Talks about impeachment are being treated more seriously, even if it’s by no means a sure thing.

I doubt his approval can too much lower than 20% (a little bit maybe but not less than 15%) because I really suspect around 1/5 of the population may be either fascist or incredibly stupid/brainwashed by fake news/suicidal. But it’s a start.

Datafolha
31% good / very good
26% regular
40% bad / very bad
Bolsonaro's approval rate decreased a lot in the last month

The most traditional polls in Brazil are Ibope and Datafolha. Ibope used to interview people at their homes, Datafolha used to interview people in the streets. Due to the pandemic, both are using cell phones. More recent polls like Idea, XP and 360 use cell phones. There is still no big expertise in Brazil in conducting polls through the cell phones.
The polls show not the same results in the group of all voters, but somehow similar. Good/very good is usually between 25 and 35%, bad/very bad is usually between 35 and 45%. But in the subgroups concerning gender, age, school years, income and region, polls show very different results. Small samples have more bias.

Motorcade rallies across Brazil are calling for Bolsonaro's impeachment. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/24/brazil-rallies-bolsonaro-impeachment-covid-response)

The left-wing protests asking for Bolsonaro’s impeachment were on Saturday.

Meanwhile, the right-wing protests asking for the same impeachment happened on Sunday.

This is what makes me skeptical. Both the left and right (the ones who regret their vote) want Bolsonaro out but they hate themselves too much to unite in one massive protest. Too much open wounds from 2014-2018.

Not news but I think this is fun to share...



It’s the jingle of winning each presidential campaign since 1950, with a major time lapse in between because of the military dictatorship that lasted from 1964 to 1985.

I’m not sure Vargas one is official, it may just be a carnival music made to celebrate him, but it’s my favorite of all time!

1. Vargas (1950)
2. Collor (1989)
3. Lula (2002)
4. Dilma (2010)
5. Bolsonaro (2018)
6. Lula (2006)
7. FHC (1994)
8. JK (1955)
9. Dilma (2014)
10. Jânio (1960)
11. FHC (1998)

I think all of them are either good or decent enough. FHC’s re-election jingle feels kinda repetitive compared to 1994 one though.

There were also many iconic jingles from losing campaigns though. Lula’s best jingle was his first one, from his campaign in 1989, I would rank it even higher than Collor (who won the election) in the same year:



A great jingle has to be catchy but not just that. It needs to have lyrics that define what the candidate represents. It also needs to have an emotional appeal that makes the candidate more personable, approachable and show how he will defend the interests of the people.

Poll Idea Data Presidential Election 2022

If Lula runs
Jair Bolsonaro (right) 34.5%
Lula (left) 22.3%
Sergio Moro (right) 11.3%
Ciro Gomes (left) 8.8%
João Doria (right) 3.6%
Luiz Mandetta (right) 3.4%
Alexandre Khalil (right) 2.7%
João Amoedo (right) 2.5%
Marina Silva (left) 2.0%
Luciano Huck (right) 1.9%
Flavio Dino (left) 1.4%

If Lula doesn't run
Jair Bolsonaro 34.4%
Fernando Haddad (left) 13.4%
Ciro Gomes 11.6%
Sergio Moro 11.6%
Luiz Mandetta 4.8%
João Doria 4.3%
Flavio Dino 3.2%
Luciano Huck 2.9%
Alexandre Khalil 2.8%
João Amoedo 2.5%
Marina Silva 2.3%

Runoff
Haddad 42.0%, Bolsonaro 38.0%
Lula 40.9%, Bolsonaro 37.8%
Ciro Gomes 41.1%, Bolsonaro 38.9%
João Doria 34.3%, Bolsonaro 39.3%
Luciano Hick 34.1%, Bolsonaro 39.4%

This week was very intense in Brasilia after pro-Bolsonaro congressman Daniel Silveira (PSL-RJ) was arrested by order of Supreme Court minister Alexandre de Moraes. Silveira made attacks against Supreme Court and threats to ministers of that court. Supreme Court confirmed prison by unanimity and Chamber validated it last Friday by 364-130 votes, even from supporters. Silveira was the last elected in PSL coligation (open list) thanks to votes given to Helio Uncle Tom Lopes, and got known for breaking a street plate with name of Councilwoman Marielle Franco, murdered 3 years ago, at campaign last week. He's a former policeman who was office-detained more than 80 times and known for his violent loyalty to Bolsonaro family.

Brazilian Liberals are a complete joke lmao.

They elected Bolsonaro because of his pro-market economic promises and now he fired the director of Petrobras to put a general in charge.

This happened after previous director elevated gasoline prices, which has the potential of angering truck drivers and stimulating a new strike. That’s one of the main reasons for the change, Bolsonaro is scared of public manifests weakening his re-election chances.

The general has already declared: “You can’t worry only about profit”. Opposed to the neoliberal government of Pinochet in Chile, Brazilian military has always been somewhat more interventionist in the economy, even during the dictatorship.

That’s why the Liberal elites alliance with the all the different conservative sectors (including the military but going all the way to the fundamentalist Christians) to elect this fascist wannabe is hilarious. They are really acting betrayed by a guy who was always a parasite of the State and public money. Some still in denial though.

I mean, these people continuously sh**t and scaremonger about Venezuela and yet they helped more than the ones they criticize to make us closer to a “Venezuela” with all these military crooks in positions of power and the militarization of the State. Reminds a lot of Maduro giving the power of PDVSA to Venezuelan generals.

Serves them right. Hope they’re proud of their part in destroying the country because this is something we’ll always bring to shove in their faces, just like the dictatorship.

Brazilian Liberals are very very liberal. As in, they very liberally focus purely on enriching themselves to the exclusion of all other things.

The expectation of a keynesian shift was short lived. Bolsonaro changed the president of Petrobras in order to reduce the price of the fuels because he wants to keep the support of the truck drivers. But the rest of the Chicago policies continue: the representatives and senators of his base are trying to approve an amnendment in order to end the floor of share of the budget to education and health. This floor was established by the Constitution of 1988. The plan to privatize the post office is still alive.

I mean, is this sort of thing actually *popular*?

Or is he just very good at disguising it with culture war stuff??

Bolsonaro is not more popular than other elected presidents in the middle of the first term.

Jair Bolsonaro in early 2021 has higher approval rate than Fernando Collor de Mello had in early 1992. But he has lower approval rate than Fernando Henrique Cardoso had in early 1997, lower approval rate than Luís Inácio Lula da Silva had in early 2005, lower approval rate than Dilma Rousseff had in early 2013.

As Burito pointed out, I think Brazilians just tend to give presidents a chance in their first term, unless they feel their consumer power is going drastically down. But even then, Bolsonaro is less popular than past presidents (FHC, Lula, Dilma) at the same point, he’s only above Collor.

Collor is the exception because he angered the elites that elected him by freezing people’s savings in the bank. Bolsonaro slightly lost support from the elites but they still kinda have his back because well, they have nowhere else to go lmao.

Bolsonaro isn’t a Chicago Boy at heart, he’s an interventionist who has to suck up to the agenda of economical elites because without them he’s not getting re-elected. But at the same time he wants to grow with low income voters so sometimes he shows his interventionist face (like in the Petrobras director thing, in order to make gas consumers happy with more price control). He is trying to balance two different positions and make everyone somewhat satisfied in order to boost his 2022 chances.

The risk of it is that trying to make everyone satisfied can have the exact opposite effect and all sides turn against you. But if he succeeds, it’s great for him. He knows he cannot rely with just one type of demographic anymore.

Besides, 2018 elections were the most polarized (along with 2014) we’ve had. There are a significant amount of people who may not really approve his government but will never admit it so soon after cutting ties with family members, etc.

Poll Paraná Pesquisas Presidential Election 2022

 February 25th -  March 1st 2021

Scenario 1 (the most probable)

Jair Bolsonaro (no party - far-right - authoritarianism, neofascism, traditionalism, economic liberalism, ultranationalism)                                                       

31,9%

Sérgio Moro (no party - center-right to right-wing - social conservatism, anti-corruption, economic liberalism)                                 

11,5%

Fernando Haddad (Worker's Party - PT - left-wing - democratic socialism, marxism, lulism)                                 

10,5%

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT -center-left - social democracy, nationalism) 
                                                                                                                             
10%

Luciano Huck (no party - center to center-right - Third Way, liberalism, social liberalism, economic liberalism)

8%

João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party  - PSDB - center to center-right - Third Way, economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, social conservatism)

5,3%

Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party - PSOL - left-wing to far-left - democratic socialism, anti-capitalism, LGBT rights, cannabis legalization)

3,2%

João Amoêdo (New Party - NOVO - center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, social conservatism, fiscal conservatism)

2,8%

don't know and didn't answer 4,3%

Blank, null, nobody 12,5%

Poll Paraná Pesquisas Presidential Election 2022

Scenario 2 (without Huck)

February 25th to March 1st

Jair Bolsonaro (no party - far-right - authoritarianism, neofascism, traditionalism, economic liberalism, ultranationalism)

33,9%

Sérgio Moro (no party - center-right to right-wing - social conservatism, anti-corruption, economic liberalism)  

12,3%

Fernando Haddad (Worker´s Party - PT - left-wing - democratic socialism, marxism, lulism)

11,8%

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT -center-left - social democracy, nationalism)

10,7%

João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party  - PSDB - center to center-right - Third Way, economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, social conservatism)

6,3%

Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party - PSOL - left-wing to far-left - democratic socialism, anti-capitalism, LGBT rights, cannabis legalization)

3,2%

João Amoêdo (New Party - NOVO - center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, social conservatism, fiscal conservatism)

3,2%

dk/da

4,9%

Blank, null, nobody

13,7%

Poll Paraná Pesquisas Presidential Election 2022

Scenario 3 (with Eduardo Leite)

February 25th to March 1st

Jair Bolsonaro (no party - far-right - authoritarianism, neofascism, traditionalism, economic liberalism, ultranationalism)

32,4%

Sérgio Moro (no party - center-right to right-wing - social conservatism, anti-corruption, economic liberalism)

12%

Fernando Haddad (Worker´s Party - PT - left-wing - democratic socialism, marxism, lulism)

10,8%

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT -center-left - social democracy, nationalism)

10,3%

Luciano Huck (no party - center to center-right - Third Way, liberalism, social liberalism, economic liberalism)

8,7%

Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party - PSOL - left-wing to far-left - democratic socialism, anti-capitalism, LGBT rights, cannabis legalization)

3,2%

João Amoêdo (New Party - NOVO - center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, social conservatism, fiscal conservatism)

3%

Eduardo Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party  - PSDB - center to center-right - Third Way, economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, social conservatism)

2,3%

dk/da

4,5%

Blank, null, nobody

12,7%

Poll Paraná Pesquisas Presidential Election 2022

Scenario 4 (with Luiz Inácio da Silva - Lula and Luiz Henrique Mandetta)

February 25th to March 1st

Jair Bolsonaro (no party - far-right - authoritarianism, neofascism, traditionalism, economic liberalism, ultranationalism)

32,2%

Lula (Worker's Party - PT - left-wing - democratic socialism, marxism, lulism)

18%

Sérgio Moro (no party - center-right to right-wing - social conservatism, anti-corruption, economic liberalism)

11,6%

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT -center-left - social democracy, nationalism)

8,7%

João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party  - PSDB - center to center-right - Third Way, economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, social conservatism)

5,3%

Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party - PSOL - left-wing to far-left - democratic socialism, anti-capitalism, LGBT rights, cannabis legalization)

3,5%

João Amoêdo (New Party - NOVO - center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, social conservatism, fiscal conservatism)

3%

Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM - center-right - social conservatism, economic liberalism)

1,4%

dk/da

4,3%

blank/null/nobody

12%

Poll Paraná Pesquisas Presidential Election 2022

Scenario 5 (the last scenario  >:-P without Moro, Huck and Boulos)

Jair Bolsonaro (no party - far-right - authoritarianism, neofascism, traditionalism, economic liberalism, ultranationalism)

37,6%

Fernando Haddad (Worker's Party - PT - left-wing - democratic socialism, marxism, lulism)

14,3%

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT -center-left - social democracy, nationalism)

13%

João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party  - PSDB - center to center-right - Third Way, economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, social conservatism)

6,9%

João Amoêdo (New Party - NOVO - center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, social conservatism, fiscal conservatism)

3,9%

Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM - center-right - social conservatism, economic liberalism)

2,7%

dk/da

6%

blank/null/nobody

15,5%

()

The 5 polled scenarios already posted. It’s becoming unlikely that a center-right option can gain form with Bolsonaro having such strong support from that electorate. PSDB is the biggest chance but they’re behind both Ciro and PT.

Moro will not run, even got a job outside the country to run away from judicial consequences, so scenario 5 is the one to watch (but maybe with Luciano Huck in it).

Paraná Pesquisas usually overrates the right. I remember the poll in the runoff of 2014, in which Aécio Neves was double digit ahead of Dilma Rousseff.

BREAKING NEWS

Minister Fachin from the Brazilian Supreme Court has nullified all condemnations against Lula that were issued by Sérgio Moro.

With that, Lula is electable again and is allowed to run in 2022. The legal “scam” by Moro has been reverted, Lula is now an innocent man to the law.

Still unclear whether Moro will respond criminally for his actions or not. He hid evidence that favored Lula and only leaked information that favored his condemnation.

Moro’s downfall started last year with the release of hacked messages of his telegram account, evidencing the lack of professionalism and the bias in the process. They were released by The Intercept Brasil after the hacker sent the material to journalist Glenn Greenwald.

The imprisonment of Lula prevented him to run in 2018 and opened the door for the election of Bolsonaro, putting the country into the claws of fascism.

Stay tuned for more developments.

Although I think better Lula not run, it is a very good news Lula has his political rights again!

I think if PT will participate, it better be the real thing than the uncharismatic paper board replacement.

So Lula should run imo. I’m not voting for him in the 1st round anyway but I would be voting for him easily in a runoff against Bolsonaro, which wouldn’t be the case with Haddad.

Obrigado, Brazil Supreme Court! This is wonderful news!

Yes, this has to be good news. The main slight worry has to be that Lula is now 75, so would he be able to campaign as energetically as in the past?

Not really as much as in the past, so much that he doesn’t put himself on the spotlight as much. I don’t really see why he should want to be president again other than his ego.

But he’s still rather active (more than say, a Joe Biden) and benefits from being a previous president who was very popular, left office with 86% approval in 2010 after all.

Prices and cost of living are increasingly higher for Brazilians nowadays and there’s a slow but growing sense of nostalgia to the 00s when everything was cheap and consumer acquisition power was high. That could benefit him, but it’s important to remember he is still much weakened in regards the public opinion compared to the past because of the effects of car-wash.

I remember in very early 2010s when the main complaints about the country (because you always gotta have something to complain) were some rich and upper middle class people complaining airports were becoming bus stations because how many more people were traveling abroad for vacations, which was always a synonym of status to them.

To think how far thing have fallen so hard in just a decade mostly because of greed... For some elite sectors it’s way more important for the poor to stay forever poor than it is for themselves to get richer. The status is everything, post modern aristocracy.

What chance would Lula stand against Bolsonaro, if he's able to run? I'm not a huge fan of Lula, but he would be a massive improvement over the fascist who needs to be voted out next year.

Lula told that there is a possibility he runs, but he also told that he is not sure. Even if he became allowed to run, it is not sure he will run. Fernando Haddad is still considered an alternative.
Considering the age, Lula told that it is not a big problem, and he compared himself to Joe Biden.

For those who understands Portuguese, there is Lula's interview for El País, in which he discusses all there questions https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2021-03-08/lula-falta-que-a-gente-tenha-uma-proxima-eleicao-para-medirmos-forca-na-urna-com-bolsonaro.html

Polls show that Lula is the one in the opposition who performs better. He is doing better than other left-wing potential candidates and also better than "centrists" (non-Bolsonaro right-wing candidates according to the media).

Today the Supreme Court started the voting that can probably end up punishing Moro for his actions. Minister Lewandowski even talked in his vote that Moro should pay Lula and the Brazilian State as restitution to compensate for the wrongdoings.

It won’t be decided today though. They will take their time analyzing the process as requested by Minister Kassio Nunes today. Who knows when final decision will come?

PT should drop the “Free Lula” or “Lula electable” line now that they’ve won that and start demanding for Moro to go to jail. That’s the minimum, there’s no way to compensate all Brazilians for that fraud. Especially when you take into account the consequences (an anti-science genocide politically benefiting from it and getting elected to lead the country in the middle of one of the worst pandemics the modern world has faced).

Is this just in the first round or is he performing better one on one against Bolsonaro?

It depends largely. Of all the opposition candidates, Lula is the one who leads the best, however, depending on the bias of the electoral survey, he is still sometimes far behind Bolsonaro, in the first round scenarios. In the second round scenarios, this is repeated again: in some Bolsonaro leads, in others, despite being a minority of these scenarios, Lula leads.

Mm. I think it might be a bit of an ignominious end for Lula’s political career to lose to Bolsonaro like that, but I know Latin American presidents tend to ride off into the sunset much less often than in the US.

First poll after Fachin's decision

CNN Brasil

Jair Bolsonaro 31%
Lula 21%
Sérgio Moro 10%
Luciano Huck 7%
João Doria 4%
João Amoedo 2%
Marina Silva 1%

Runoff
Jair Bolsonaro 43%
Lula 39%

Not very bad numbers, considering that incumbent presidents always lead the polls many months before the election


Today, Lula's interview was very good. He showed to be willing to build a large coalition with the center.

Atlas Politico Poll

Bolsonaro's administration evaluation
Good/very good: 25%
Regular: 18%
Bad/very bad: 57%

First round 2022
Jair Bolsonaro 32.7%
Lula 27.4%
Sergio Moro 9.7%
Ciro Gomes 7.5%
Luiz Mandetta 4.3%
João Dória 4.3%
Luciano Huck 2.5%
João Amoedo 2.0%
Marina Silva 1.3%
Guilherme Boulos 0.9%
Flávio Dino 0.7%
Alexandre Khalil 0.7%

Runoff

Lula 44.9%, Bolsonaro 38.8%
Ciro Gomes 44.7%, Bolsonaro 37.5%

1st round:

()

2nd round simulations: Mandetta (ex-health minister), Ciro Gomes and Lula (or Haddad) win against Bolsonaro, while the others lose.

()

XP Poll

First round
Jair Bolsonaro 27%
Lula 25%
Sérgio Moro 10%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Others 16%

Runoff
Bolsonaro 41%, Lula 40%


I don't know why Mandetta and Moro are still considered serious options.
Former minister of health Mandetta had a sane speech concerning the pandemic, he tried to make a serious job, but he was not very competent in the early stages of the pandemic. He was too slow in closing the airports and purchasing equipment for hospitals.
Moro is hated by the left, and he became also hated by the far-right after April 2020.

Mandetta was by far the best health minister we had, when he was dismissed from office,  Brazil only had 1,600 dead in the pandemic, I think the negative impacts at the beggining of his administration were minimal.

I´m not a very big fan of him as a person, but I think you misrepresenting his management here, he gave the best of him and he didn´t want to follow Bolsonaro's chloroquine booklet, like his brief successor, Nelson Teich, and before the terrible one, current management of General Pazuello (or Pezadello - nightmare).

Luciano Huck is the one that performs the worst in runoff scenarios, I hope he doesn’t run either and stays on TV. If Lula runs, this is clearly going to be a Lula vs Bolsonaro showdown. Huck will destroy his career for nothing lmao

I even hope Ciro would accept to be Lula’s VP in order to push some of his agenda. But there’s too much bad blood between those two, Lula will pick either Haddad or some random center-right name.

Moro needs to be put in jail for treason, these car-wash people received training, instructions, secret data (obtained through giant big tech) from US institutions and helped interfere in decisions made by Brazilian State agents.

What happened were acts of sedition against the interests of the country. Once we get rid of the fascist monster and put him and all the anti-scientific BS he represents back into the sewer he deserves, the next president needs to pay attention to these kinds of hybrid wars.

Unfortunately, Lula was too naive to believe in the justice system and ended up falling because of his own democratic impulses, which people used against him.

The law that says politicians need to have a clean sheet in order to run, was pushed by his government. The anti-corruption movement was given increased power by Dilma’s decisions to strengthen it. All with the greatest intentions, but they were used with different motives as we saw.

Say what you want, but more “authoritarian” leaders would’ve never allowed this kind of interference to gain so much track. You don’t have to be anti-democratic, but you gotta find the balance in order to prevent institutions from destroying themselves.

According to the newspaper Estado de S. Paulo, PSOL is considering the possibility of not have a candidate in the 2022 presidential election and support Lula already in the first round. I think this is a good idea. It is better not to split the anti-Bolsonaro vote. If the left has only one candidate and the traditional right has only one candidate, it would increase the probability of keeping Bolsonaro out of the runoff.

Yeah, I predicted that it was more likely to have the center-right divided (with PSDB, Huck and all the other usual minor options) than the left with PT and PSOL.

PSOL always has a candidate since their existence but in current situation with so much talk about “broad front” coming from their own supporters, they will totally support Lula.

With the right conversation (maybe promising a ministry where he can enact some of his proposals), hopefully Lula and Ciro can make a deal as well. But the possibility of having Ciro not running is more remote and would take time and conversations to happen.

Future polls will have a lot of say. I don’t see anyone breaking the vote intention of either Lula or Bolsonaro in the 1st round.

Lula is the only one who can save Brazil.

I read an article that said thanks to damage in recent years, the Amazon is contributing more to climate change through greenhouse gases. In some ways, ousting Bolsonaro is a task with the literal fate of the world on the line.

Today is the 3rd anniversary of the murder of the municipal legislator of Rio de Janeiro Marielle Franco. The civil police has already found who shot. But we still don't know who ordered the crime.

DATAFOLHA POLL

Brazilians approval of the Bolsonaro government handling of the Coronavirus pandemic:

Good or Great - 22% (-4)
Regular - 24% (-1)
Bad or Awful - 54% (+6)

Brazilians approval of president Bolsonaro:

Good or Great - 30% (-1)
Regular - 24% (-2)
Bad or Awful - 44% (+4)
Don’t Know - 2%

Variations indicated are in comparison with the previous poll from the institute two months ago, in January.

In this Datafolha poll, we can see that 46% is for impeachment and 50% is againt impeachment

PoderData poll:

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT - Worker´s Party - left-wing - democratic socialism, left-wing populism, marxism, labourism)

34%

Jair Bolsonaro (No party - far-right - authoritarianism, militarism, traditionalism, economic liberalism, right-wing nationalism)

30%

Sérgio Moro (No party - center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, anticorruption, social conservatism)

6%

Ciro Gomes (PDT - Democratic Labour Party - center-left - democratic socialism, social democracy, labourism, left-wing nationalism)

5%

Luciano Huck (No party - center to center-right - liberalism, economic liberalism, social liberalism)

4%

João Amoêdo (NOVO - New Party- center-right to right-wing - economic liberalism, social conservatism, minarquism)

3%

João Doria (PSDB Brazilian Social Democracy Party - center-left, center to center-right - economic liberalism, social democracy, social liberalism, Third Way, social conservatism)

3%

Luiz Henrique Mandetta (DEM - Democrats - center-right - social conservatism, economic liberalism)

2%

Flávio Dino (PCdoB - Communist Party of Brazil - far-left - marxism-leninism, socialism)

0%

Blank/null: 10%
Don't know: 3%


https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/03/pd-intencao-presidente-17-mar-2021-2-01.png

Runoff:

Bolsonaro 37%  x  Lula 41%

Bolsonaro 34% x Ciro Gomes 39%

Bolsonaro 37% x Luciano Huck 40%

Bolsonaro 38% x Sérgio Moro 31%

Bolsonaro 41% x João Doria 31%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/03/PoderData-intencao-de-voto-2-turno-09.png

This poll destroys the myth that the center (the name the media gives to the non-Bolsonaro right) does better in the runoff against Bolsonaro than the left

So basically:

:rose emoji: +5
:red flag emoji: +4
Huck +3
Moro -7
Doria -10

The more right-wing, the worst chances are against Bolsonaro. And even the lead from Ciro or Lula isn’t much comfortable.

That’s because for many regular working class people there won’t be a difference between a Bolsonaro and a Moro or a Doria. Too bad for the media sectors who demand a centrist Joe Biden-like figure as a solution against Bolsonaro.

Isn't that a little contradictory? Or does it relate to different issues?

PSDB is not social democrat
PSDB is the brazilian CDU

Basically PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) its a Brazilian big tent political party, in which there are social liberals from this oldest wing that founded the party in 1988, as the former president of Brazil Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC), José Serra, Mário Covas, Geraldo Alckmin, and that from the last years, being opposition to the left-wing governments of the Worker´s Party (PT), of the former presidents Lula and Dilma Rousseff, the party moved to the center to center-left in its early years to the right, in which the party said (and still says) that it defends social democracy, and then mixed with elements of Third Way and Christian democracy and was even more to the political right with the rise of the current governor of the state of São Paulo, the most populous in Brazil, João Doria, who says that he is socially conservative and economically neoliberal, supported the current far-right president Jair Bolsonaro (PSL at the time and today  he has no party) in 2018 and now he is pre-candidate to the post of president of Brazil in 2022.

The younger wing of the party is more conservative than its wing that founded the party.

In Germany, PSDB is perhaps like the FDP party, which was center-left and later went to the neoliberal center-right. 

PSDB is a contradiction as a party. They’re a bunch of neoliberals and their only president (FHC in the 90s) was the peak of privatizations in this country but the media will INSIST they’re center-left when the left voters absolutely hate them and vote all for PT or other options like PSOL.

It’s like they constantly try to move the center of gravity in order for PSDB to be in the center-left in order to erase the left, as the media hates them.

To be fair, the PSDB got increasingly more right-wing as time passed to make a counterpoint with PT. But when it was originally founded post-dictatorship, it could be considered a center-left or center party. That’s where the social-democratic in the name comes from, as in that immediate post-dictatorship moment, there was an almost unanimous progressive sentiment.

But nowadays, they’re totally center-right. Older members who are there since it was founded may be less conservative and will sometimes voice disagreements with the party direction but they have no power. Most people from that time already left the party.

Ciro Gomes was once in the PSDB in 1990 for example. But he is now in PDT, a center left-wing nationalist party inspired on Brizola and Getúlio Vargas.

Bolsonaro supporters HATE PSDB because they consider them a bunch of leftists and socialists simply because they’re not crazy, anti-democratic and anti-science like them lmao.

Meanwhile, PT supporters and other segments of the left HATE PSDB because they consider them a bunch of neoliberals who work for the corporations interests and not for the people.

PSDB always gets to be the media darling though (who hates both the PT and Bolsonaro) and also from different establishment sectors.

Since 1994, elections are basically a polarization between PT and the PSDB. The left votes for PT and the right for PSDB.

That ended in 2018 with Bolsonaro radicalizing the right. PSDB regular voters didn’t vote for PSDB and picked Bolsonaro instead. PSDB ended in 4th place with around 4%.

That’s why it’s hard to see them getting back in the game with Bolsonaro still having so much support. Those are mostly their voters. PSDB needs to target Bolsonaro if they want them back.

Well one poll arguably can't "destroy" anything ;)

But yes, its modestly encouraging.

Why are they polling Huck? Is he likely to run?

Yes, although there is no total likelihood that he will run, he was considered to run in the 2018 presidential election, but he remained on his TV show "Caldeirão do Huck" or "Huck's Cauldron" in english, on Rede Globo TV station, supported Bolsonaro in the second round of the 2018 presidential election and he is now choosing a liberal center party to join and run in 2022.

He wants to but no one knows if he will.

He has a long TV career constructed at Globo and he would lose it all if he decided to run, as Globo doesn’t accept their names being politically associated with the government or political parties. Bolsonaro’s ex-minister of culture was an iconic name from Globo, who was there since 1969: Her contract with the TV broadcaster was terminated and for nothing as she was later dismissed by Bolsonaro from the job because she said some stuff that wasn’t 100% against culture.

So, it can be quite risky for people with a stable TV career job that pays them a fortune to simply give it up for the sake of politics. I don’t know how big Huck’s ambitions are but it sounds like an awful deal to give it all up just to fail to make runoff, as for now it’s quite clear it will be a Lula vs Bolsonaro election.

I am not sure Huck will want to go through with his candidature. It may happen but if it does I feel like it will be a waste of space that will only prejudice himself. If he is smart, he won’t run. He is positioning himself as a center candidate, to the left of PSDB but to the right of Ciro. Kinda like: a center-right guy on economics but progressive on everything else. There is practically no space for PSDB or Ciro, imagine for Huck.

I am a Ciro supporter and even I think Ciro should eventually start considering not running because there’s absolutely no way to break the Lula vs Bolsonaro dynamic. If I were him I would, in the eve of the elections (assuming no judiciary or legislative surprises* happen in the following year and a half), try to make a deal with Lula in order to put down his PDT candidature in exchange of a position like VP or minister where he could push for some of his agenda.

*Surprises like the judiciary putting Lula in jail again in order to stop him from running OR even a Bolsonaro impeachment that prevents him from running.

Details of the Datafolha Poll of March 2021 about the rating of Bolsonaro's administration

I will write the results as the following:
Demographic group: good/very good, regular, bad/very bad

All: 30, 24, 44

Gender
Male: 35, 24, 40
Female: 26, 24, 48

Age
16-24: 21, 30, 46
25-34: 33, 25, 41
35-44: 31, 23, 45
45-59: 34, 23, 42
60-: 32, 20, 45

Instruction
Elementary: 31, 26, 41
High School: 31, 26, 41
College: 28, 17, 55

Income (1MW~US$200 monthly)
0-2 MW: 28, 26, 44
2-5 MW: 35, 22, 42
5-10 MW: 32, 19, 48
>10MW: 30, 14, 54

Region
Southeast: 29, 24, 45
South: 39, 24, 34
Northeast: 24, 25, 49
Centerwest/North: 39, 21, 39

Municipality
Metro area: 27, 23, 48
Countryside: 33, 24, 41

Color
White: 35, 21, 43
Brown: 30, 26, 42
Black: 22, 22, 55
Asian: 24, 28, 44

Religion
Catholic: 29, 24, 45
Evangelic: 37, 27, 35

http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2021/03/17/6879812ac6be2a83138f6379ef5711cdabsnr.pdf

It is horrible to see that, according to last Datafolha poll, 56% don't consider Bolsonaro bad/very bad. But it is not hard to understand

1) Many people had already had the covid19, they had mild symptoms and they don't care about the pandemic anymore. They care more about income, jobs and food. This is a selfish view, because many old people and people who had previous diseases are dying, and a ignorant view, because if a country has adequate policies to deal with the pandemic, it would be better for income and jobs.

2) The business elite still supports the administration and they have money to build an opinion

3) Most of the newspapers criticizes Bolsonaro concerning the pandemic, the environment and the foreign relations, but they still support Paulo Guedes's economic policies

4) The is no leader in the oposition who has high popularity. Lula polls well, but 40% of the population hate him. Fernando Haddad, Ciro Gomes and Guilherme Boulos are not very popular

5) There is a (wrong) perception that there is no big scandal in this administration. There is the scandal related to the oldest son when he was state representative in Rio de Janeiro, but these facts took place before 2018. (I still think the money used to buy cloroquine in 2020 a scandal)

Other polls show similar results. But yes, you are correct, it is hard to establish a truth only after some polls

Senator Sergio Olimpio Gomes (PSL-SP),58, known as Major Olimpio died due to Covid-19. He was interned since March. He was elected in PSL 2018 wave but split with Bolsonaro and supported vaccination, but he had problems with governor Doria and protested against restrictive decisions against virus. He was a policeman and served 2 terms as state legislator (2007-2015) and 1 term as Federal Deputy (2015-19).

I think these 30% that still support him will forever do it until they die lmao. I don’t see them switching back to PSDB now that they have been radicalized.

A better explanation is simply that these people have been brainwashed by propaganda and hate speech. They would destroy vaccines, burn hospitals or even die for their great leader.

It’s hard to admit around 30% of people you’re forced to live with are either plain fascists or suicidal or incredibly dumb and selfish but that is the reality. I don’t really expect the approval numbers to go below 20-25% (and those numbers are “optimistic” scenario, in case we end up seeing corpses on the street after the collapse).

They won’t change because it’s an ego thing at this point, they’re too mentally into this and for so long at this point that would drive them crazy with guilt and shame to suddenly wake up to reality. If I had ever supported this stuff, I wouldn’t know how to forgive myself tbh.

The focus should be that a majority of the country, over 50%, is against him and the Nazis are now in defense mode. They know if the election was today they would lose. That’s why they’re trying to push for the prison of people who publicly criticize Bolsonaro and call him for what he is: a genocidal maniac.

It’s all about trying to suppress speech by making people scared and it’s great to see that having the opposite effect and stimulating people to attack him even more. We should always remind that he eventually will have to pay for his humanitarian crimes once he is gone and rot in jail for the rest of his miserable life.

That’s why he will never concede and people should be prepared to give a strong reaction against that monster, 10x stronger than what happened in 2013.

The Federal Police, after receiving signed orders from president Bolsonaro, is investigating his 2022 presidential adversary Ciro Gomes for criticisms he made of the president in one interview, as it was an “insult against the president honor”. Ciro usually criticizes his political adversaries with harsh words, in that interview he called Bolsonaro a thief.

This week there were a lot of these type of news. Popular YouTuber Felipe Neto received a police intimation for insulting the president (that was one day later suspended), Police arrested a group of five protesters with a plaque saying the president was committing a genocide (they were all released later), etc.

None of these attacks on freedom of speech has really sticked so far but they will keep pushing for them because they are desperate. Popularity is down and COVID is about to get much much worse in the next 30 days here, we could see a tragedy. So they feel they need to make this to try to make people scared of voicing their opinions, it’s not a coincidence this is starting right at this specific moment. Because things are about to look real bad for the government.

Felipe Neto launched an initiative in which he will pay the legal defense of anyone who is intimated by the police for exercising their freedom of speech. It is called “Cala Boca Já Morreu” and consists of four law firms in a collaboration with Felipe.

That’s the website: https://www.calaabocajamorreu.com.br/

Certainly parallels to be drawn with certain other countries here ;)

Do these "hardcore" voters skew to older people, as is quite often the case elsewhere?

I think it skews more to the youngest actually (between 16-24 years old):

()

Overall population: Bolsonaro 36% vs Lula 41%. Null and blank votes are 18%.

Radicalization is very associated with uncritical access to technology. And that’s something the youngest are more subjected to, just like populism and anti-establishment rhetoric.

Also, if you’re like 23 years old, all your life has basically been under the PT government so it’s more likely for this age group to perceive the left as the establishment. They didn’t live through the military dictatorship or the Collor government and were only babies or didn’t even exist during FHC government in the 90s. That’s how a right-wing speech promising change becomes appealing for them.

Bolsonaro is their first experience with the right and they aren’t old enough to be affected by the worst of his actions (COVID, economic stuff, etc)

Meanwhile, the “Millenial” demographic (between 25-44 years old) are easily the most against Bolsonaro. If you had to generalize an average Pro-Bolsonaro and Anti-Bolsonaro voter it would be like this:

Pro-Bolsonaro voter:
- Male
- Between 16 and 24 years old
- From the Center-West Region
- Middle Class voters

Agrobusiness is really supportive of Bolsonaro, probably the most loyal base after Evangelical Protestants. That reflects on the geography, Center-West is where the agrobusiness influence is by far the strongest.

Anti-Bolsonaro voter:
- Female
- Between 25 and 44 years old
- From the Northeast Region
- Low Income voters

It’s important to know that despite similarities with other places, such as the US, the Bolsonaro movement is extremely different (and more dangerous) than what Trump or other right wing populist movements are and operate under different logics and have different types of bases.

The Supreme Court considered that Sergio Moro was not impartial when he was a judge and when he sentenced Lula. Moro's sentences are not considered valid anymore.
It is becoming clear that Lula will be allowed to run in 2022 if he wants.

Just to clear up, the previous Supreme Court had simply decided that Moro didn’t have competence to judge Lula as it belongs to a federal district tribunal and nullified the sentence. But the evidence presented by Moro could still be used.

This new decision considered Moro was biased in the condemnation against Lula, which also nullifies all the evidence presented in that process. Which means, an eventual new process will have to start from zero if it happens.

This recent understanding was deeply affected by the leaked hacked messages between ex-judge Moro and the prosecutors, released by The Intercept Brasil between 2018 and now. Minister Carmen Lucia altered her vote thanks to this, as her previous understanding was against Lula. According to some reports I read, she was shocked and angry with the content of the hacked messages.

Bolsonaro has fired six ministers, including Foreign Affairs and Defense - apparently to placate the centrão and/or the military.

The worst Foreign relations minister Brazil ever had in all its existence as a country by the way.

I feel Meh about it though because knowing Bolsonaro, the new guy is either exactly the same or even worse.

This is all for show to signal the government is changing under pressure from all sides, as Bolsonaro is at his weakest position in his term so far, making Centrão feel free to demand more positions in exchange of support.

And as Bolsonaro’s image gets more negative, the more expensive this support gets as Centrão congressmen risk their own electoral image with the association with the government in the moment COVID handling by the president shows to be a disaster, Lula returns, etc. That’s why they also pressure the government to be more competent and get rid of the bad names.

Getting rid of the Foreign minister is something Bolsonaro didn’t want but was politically forced to do. Too much pressure also coming from the never before seen huge negative reputation of Brazil internationally under Bolsonaro government. The stereotype of “samba, football and happy friendly people” changed to “Fascism, anti-environmentalism and stupidity”. Everyone hates Brazil nowadays, from China to the US, from India to Europe and even important Latin American allies like Argentina.

Brazil’s independent position from Lula’s government, reaching out to countries like Iran and focusing on more regional cooperation within Latin America went to a submissive one of automatic uncritical allignement with everything the crazy far-right defends and sh**ts on all its allies.

For example, Bolsonaro loves Israel and Saudi Arabia simply because that’s what is inside the far-right book, he doesn’t even understand why he has that position, he just blindly follows. And he only picks the worst aspects of these places while simply ignoring the good stuff, like, I wish he copied Israel’s vaccination strategy or liberal pro-LGBT stances since he loves there so much! (even though he happened put a neonazi as Brazil’s minister of culture once but surely it was just an accident).

I doubt the next Foreign minister will be significantly better, you gotta change the president in order to achieve that. But I suppose it’s nice that Bolsonaro is showing signs of collapse?

A major cabinet reshuffle:
Foreign Relations
Ernesto Araujo (far-right, Olavo de Carvalho's supporter) ------> Carlos Alberto Franco França (Protocol's chief)
Defense
Fernando Azevedo e Silva (a well-connected general) -------->Braga Neto (another military who was former interventor in RJ's security who was Chief of Staff last year)
Chief of Staff
Braga Neto --------> Luiz Eduardo Ramos (another general who was Bolsonaro's mate in Military Academy and was Secretary of Government, a position who deals with Congress and political articulation)
Secretary of Government
Luiz Eduardo Ramos --------> Flavia Arruda (a 1st term congresswoman of PR-DF who's married to scandal ridden José Eduardo Arruda, a former senator who resigned after violating voting's secrecy in Senate, got a comeback as DF governor but was found in another scandal of bribes who was known as DEM (his party at time) Mensalao)
Justice
André Mendonça (a lawyer and Presbyterian reverend who'll return to Solicitor General and is favorite to get next spot at Supreme Court, this maneuver is to preserve him) -----> Anderson Gustavo Torres (DF Secretary of Public Security who's very close to Bolsonaro's sons)
Solicitor General
José Levi (he was refusing to subscribe lawsuits who Bolsonaro's moving against social distancing decisions made by governors and mayors) ------> André Mendonça

You can be highly cynical about this, and almost certainly correctly so - but the mere fact Bolsonaro has felt the need to make these changes must tell us something?

It shows that the Bolsonaro government is more fragile, perhaps more fragile than any other moment since he took office on January 1st, 2019.

He needs to govern with the support of center and center-right parties ('Centrão'), putting new government ministers appointed by the Centrão, otherwise he may undergo an impeachment process and he may lose his position as president (which I don't think will occur until October 2022, until the new general elections), or else he can try to give a military coup d'état and install a dictatorship if Congress doesn't collaborate with him.

Sure, it tells us that he’s very weak politically that he has to bow down to pressure. Pressure coming from his Centrão allies, from unsatisfied military actors, from external players, etc.

But the changes are mostly for the sake of signaling change, I don’t believe in any major change of heart in regards on how the government deals with the issues. Even if he nominated good people out of pressure, he would sabotage them when they happened to disagree with him on something and/or become more popular than him.

That’s what he did to Mandetta, minister of health fired in the beginning of the pandemic simply for being competent and pro-science. Bolsonaro didn’t like that he was getting more popular than him and saw that as a threat, later choosing to put a goon like Pazuello in the position.


You gotta have major support for that though and he doesn’t have that either from the parliament, the media, the population or the military. Would be fun in these circumstances to see him and the crazies even try, at least it would be an excuse to get rid of them earlier, before 2022.

That’s why only thing he can do is to suck up to Centrão demands.

Of course, Ernesto Araújo's anti-China views copied from the American far-right were not very welcome in the Congress. Even the right-wing representatives didn't like it. Many representatives are supported by the agriculture sector, and China is the biggest destination of the Brazilian agriculture exports.

Besides, the inputs of the 2 anti-covid vaccine used in Brazil, Coronavac and Oxford AstraZeneca, are imported from China.

Araújo's other ideas: the left supports abortion because the left doesn't want people born and doesn't want Jesus born, modern Europe is a culturally empty space and the national-socialism was a left-wing movement.

New XP/Ipespe poll!

1st round:

Lula (PT) 29%
Bolsonaro (no party) 28%
Sérgio Moro (no party) 9%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 9%
-
Luciano Huck (no party) 5%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 3%
João Doria (PSDB) 3%
Henrique Mandetta (DEM) 3%

Runoff scenarios:

Bolsonaro 38% vs Lula 42%
Bolsonaro 30% vs Sérgio Moro 30%
Bolsonaro 38% vs Ciro Gomes 38%
Bolsonaro 35% vs Luciano Huck 32%
Bolsonaro 37% vs João Doria 30%

Interesting to notice that Bolsonaro vote intention goes up as the more left-wing his opponent is, but so does the percentage of the opponent. Lula performs the best with 42%, then Ciro with 38%, centrist Luciano Huck with 32% and then finally the two more “right-wing” options Doria and Moro have only 30%.

More polarization leads to increased turnout from both sides, I guess. Notice how in a Lula vs Bolsonaro contest there’s only 20% of people who didn’t make up their mind yet or would nullify/not vote. In a Bolsonaro vs Moro match up that % doubles up to 40% because that’s basically an “eh whatever” election, especially to people on the left, who would abstain. But also to people on the right who like both and would be in doubt.

The same poll asked Brazilians about their approval of the Bolsonaro administration:

Disapprove: 60% (+4)
Approve: 33% (-5)

Only 7% of people don’t have a formed opinion about the government. Net of approval is -27%, the lowest point in the Bolsonaro administration, surpassing the previous one from June 2020 of -25%:

()

The curve totally matches the chronology of the emergency checks given to the poor because of the pandemic, starting in June 2020 and ending in December 2020. You can notice Bolsonaro approval becoming better during that period.

But since then, it’s only going down.

Bolsonaro out of the runoff in 2022 is not impossible anymore. If the left and the non-Bolsonaro right had only one candidate each one, both could go to the runoff.

No surprie Bolsonaro still doing well. In the polls that take place many months before the election, the most known candidates poll better, so, incumbent presidents poll better before the campaign starts. Dilma Rousseff defeated Aécio Neves in the runoff in 2014 by a very narrow margin, but in the polls that took place in 2013 and in early 2014, Dilma had comfortable margins.

I wonder if there will be any major states realignment in 2022.

Pre-Lula, you could say Rio de Janeiro + Rio Grande do Sul were the most left-wing states. Because of their history and generally being the more progressive states.

After Lula was elected, there were some shifts. The Northeast region, which has lowest development index of Brazil and was once perceived as more conservative, became a major PT stronghold and was decisive in giving the party 4 consecutive victories. Elections became more class oriented, with lower income groups voting for PT and higher income ones for PSDB.

During Lula years you basically had the Northeast + Majority of the North + Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro voting for the left. While the Midwest + South + Roraima and Rondônia + São Paulo loyally voting for the right (PSDB). Places where agrobusiness also has more influence tends to vote for the right.

Now with Bolsonaro things may shift a bit. I think there’s significant rejection against him coming from São Paulo since he got elected. Not sure if it has something to do with him antagonizing the state or just that São Paulo naturally tends to dislike more populist candidates. But a recent poll showed that Lula and Bolsonaro are tied in the state (!!!) and it’s a state in which Bolsonaro had like 67% in 2018.

São Paulo historically votes to the right of Rio de Janeiro since redemocratization. But in 2018 they pretty much were aligned with similar Bolsonaro percentages, although that was more of an evidence of Rio’s hard turn to the right with Bolsonaro than any shift to the left of São Paulo.

However, I think there’s a chance that in 2022 we could see São Paulo voting to the left of Rio. Too early to tell and one poll is not enough. But I do get the vibe Bolsonaro is crumbling faster there than in Rio.

Also, I think Amazonas may stay as a Bolsonaro state, even though they voted for PT with Lula and Dilma. They were one of the places with the strongest anti-lockdown protests coming from the population.

Those are currently my predictions for 2022:

()

And just for comparison, those were the Bolsonaro vs Haddad results in 2018:

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Poder Data poll:

1st round

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva - Lula (Worker's Party - PT - left-wing)

34%

Jair Bolsonaro (no party - far-right)

31%

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party - PDT - center-left to left-wing)

6%

Luciano Huck (no party - center to center-right)

6%

João Amoedo (New Party - NOVO - center-right to right-wing)

5%

João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB - center-left, center, center-right)

4%

Sérgio Moro (no party - center-right)

3%

Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM - center-right)

2%

Blank/null

7%

Don't know

2%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/04/pd-intencao-presidente-14-abr-2021-1.png

Poder Data 2nd round

Bolsonaro (no party) 34% vs. Lula (PT) 52%

Bolsonaro (no party) 35% vs. Huck (no party) 48%

Bolsonaro (no party) 38% vs. Ciro (PDT) 38%

Bolsonaro (no party) 38% vs. Doria (PSDB) 37%

Bolsonaro (no party) 38% vs. Moro (no party) 37%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/04/pd-intencao-presidente-14-abr-2021-9.png

It will go lower (hopefully)

()

Skeptical about this poll as it shows Lula winning in ALL regions and it’s still hard for me to see the Midwest and South go that strongly for him. The Midwest numbers especially, so don’t buy them. Lots of things are weird.

This poll also shows Lula winning in all demographics except MALE one and the HIGHEST INCOME one. Which is also is hard to believe, these are indeed the demographics I imagine going harder for Bolsonaro but I doubt it’s the ONLY ones.

I wonder why Female voters would favor Lula 61% vs 23% out of nowhere. It’s a more favorable margin than the Northeast one for Lula.

Previous poll from SAME institute showed the youngest being the most pro-Bolsonaro and now they’re the most pro-Lula. Doesn’t make sense.

But maybe Lula suddenly just got tons of hype after the Supreme Court decision. We need numbers from other institutes to confirm or discredit this trend.

I believe in the full numbers because the other institutes are showing similar numbers.

But the numbers of the sub-groups are really very strange in Poder Data Polls. Maybe, the cause is the bias of small samples.

There is a gender gap, all the polls show it, Bolsonaro has higher approval rates in the group of men (shame to be man). But this gap showed by Poder Data is too high. Besides, Lula usually had more votes in the group of male voters too. Even in 2010, Dilma Rousseff performed better in the group of male voters than in the group of female voters (a surprise for observers from other countries, a left-wing woman had more male voters). Only in 2014 and 2018, PT performed better in the group of female voters. I believe that if Lula decides to be the candidate in 2022, he will perform better in the group of women, but the gap won't be the one Poder Data is showing.

Yes, sometimes Bolsonaro is more popular in the group of young, sometimes in the group of old people, sometimes in the group of the poor, sometimes in the group of rich. Probably, biased small samples.

Supreme Court decided (8 vs 3 votes) that Moro's sentence against Lula was not valid. Now, it is almost sure that Lula will be allowed to run.

We can’t handle things as they are until October 2022 though.

Institutions better get rid of him at least in this year. He has given MULTIPLE reasons for impeachment. Didn’t these people impeach Dilma based on the argument of “creative accountings”?

I know impeachment is a political trial and has nothing to do with fairness, but c’mon. Politically get his ass out before the destruction is completely irreversible.

The installment of the Covid parliamentary comittee of investigation is a start, I guess. But it had to be focused on the federal government only, I fear those sold-outs in congress won’t do anything.

President of PSDB said that Tasso Jereissati can be the party's candidate in 2022. He was governor and senator of Ceará for a long time. He used to be Ciro Gomes's ally (maybe he is still now).
Until last week, Jereissati was not mentioned. PSDB most mentioned names were João Dória and Eduardo Leite. The party could also support Luciano Huck or a DEM candidate.
Jereissati is a member of PSDB since this party was founded in 1988. He is on the left of the average of the new party members, but it is not very hard.

Is Bolsonaro giving up? I’m starting to think he doesn’t even care at this point by the consistency of saying nonsense stuff.

Today he compared Lula with Jesus Christ from the Bible (???) and said that social programs for the poor from him are like when Jesus miraculously multiplied bread and then people went after him asking for more.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RenanPeixoto_/status/1384209269269041157
I think that is supposed to paint both Lula and Jesus as communists? Which is confusing because that association sounds like something that can make Lula be more positively seen by religious people who voted for Bolsonaro. I don’t understand.

Nor does he understands what he's saying.

()

Exame poll

1st round:

Lula (PT) 34%
Bolsonaro (No party) 33%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 9%
Luciano Huck (No party) 6%
João Doria (PSDB) 4%
João Amoedo (NOVO) 3%
Henrique Mandetta (DEM) 3%
Danilo Gentili (No party) 2%
Undecided 5%
Blank/Null 4%

Runoff scenarios:

Lula 40% vs Bolsonaro 38%
Bolsonaro 44% vs Ciro Gomes 34%
Bolsonaro 40% vs Luciano Huck 38%
Bolsonaro 46% vs João Doria 29%
Bolsonaro 45% vs Eduardo Leite 22% (Leite is an alternative to Doria to run as the PSDB candidate)
Bolsonaro 45% vs Sérgio Moro 31%
Bolsonaro 42% vs Henrique Mandetta 23%
Lula 42% vs Ciro Gomes 36%

Better for Bolsonaro than previous recent polls?

Different polling institutes. You can only compare it to the previous EXAME poll and Bolsonaro actually lost intention of vote compared to the previous poll, in which he was the leading candidate and won the runoff scenario against everyone.

Just one day after the climate summit in which he adopted a different tone in regards the protection of the environment, Bolsonaro has made cuts in investimentos destined to the environment  >:-P

Biden has classified the Bolsonaro announcements as “encouraging news”. These people will simply pretend to buy that Bolsonaro changed his stances because of the new rhetoric while his actions keep stimulating the destruction of the forests and Indigenous communities.

The big talk is all just for the show and virtue-signaling, not for the good of the environment. From both leaderships. Real change of actions should be the focus, not more friendly speech rhetoric.

Usually, there is the census in every year in which the end is 0. The 2020 census was delayed to 2021 because of the pandemic. Now, it was announced that the census will take place in 2022, due to the budget cuts in 2021.
There was delay of the census in 2 administrations: Collor and Bolsonaro

Levy Fidelix, presidential candidate many times, passed away. He was 69. He used to have less than 1% in every election. His main proposal used to be the building of elevated trains in big cities. Fidelix was a member of PRTB, the same party of the vice president Hamilton Mourão.
In a presidencial debate in 2014, he said that he disliked gays because the organ used for defecation is not useful for reproduction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NPea2dyaEA

Bolsonaro is declining. He has 1/3 in the polls because there are still 17 months to the election and, of course, more people know the incumbent and the ex-president. When a non-Bolsonaro right-wing candidate starts the campaign in August 2022, he/she can increase, and there is the possibility of Bolsonaro not going to the runoff.
However, we should not consider he is dead. Most of the >60 population has already received the 1st dose of the vaccine. By the end of April, all the >60 population will have already received the 1st dose. By the end of May, all the >60 population will haver already received the 2nd dose. So, in the late June, the number of people going to hospitals will strongly decline. Of course <60 people need hospitals too, not 100% of the >60 received the vaccines, the efficacy is not 100%. But, anyway, in the second semester of 2021, the pandemic will not be the most important issue of the country anymore. Bolsonaro's administration is a full disaster in all issues, not only the pandemic: economy, environment, international relations, human rights, education... But most of the oppostion's speech is still focused in the pandemic. In the 2nd semester, the opposition will need to change the topic.

I just hope the liberal sectors of left aren’t dumb enough and don’t sabotage Lula by pushing excessive focus into social issues when that’s what gave Bolsonaro strength in 2018 alongside the anticorruption populism.

Just push the obvious message that the country and Brazilians were much better during Lula years and that now everyone is damned with no opportunities. Economic power has decreased a lot. It’s an easy win that hopefully they cannot destroy.

Brazil Senate opens pandemic probe, adding to pressure on Bolsonaro

BRASILIA (Reuters) - A Senate inquiry into the Brazilian government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic kicked off on Tuesday, with lawmakers launching what may be a major headache for President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of next year’s election.
Nearly 400,000 people have died from COVID-19 in Brazil, the second-highest death toll in the world after the United States. Bolsonaro, a far-right former army captain, has drawn harsh criticism due to his long-running efforts to minimize the dangers of the virus, shun masks and push unproven remedies.

The inquiry will be overseen by Senator Renan Calheiros, a veteran lawmaker and Bolsonaro critic responsible for the final report. Procedural decisions will fall to Senator Omar Aziz, from the hard-hit state of Amazonas, as committee president and Senate opposition leader Randolfe Rodrigues as vice president.

The probe is expected to focus on the government’s delays in securing vaccines, including the details of drawn-out negotiations with foreign drugmakers, and missteps in Amazonas, where an infectious new variant sprung up late last year.

Beyond the new facts uncovered, the inquiry is expected to generate a political spectacle, with lawmakers pinning Bolsonaro on the ropes ahead of next year’s fraught presidential election, where he is almost certain to seek re-election.

Although the probe could add to calls for impeachment of Bolsonaro, experts say that is an unlikely outcome. Instead, they suggested the government could deflect blame toward former Health Minister Eduardo Pazuello, who oversaw the chaos in Amazonas and has been criticized for slow vaccine negotiations.

Bolsonaro’s early efforts to undermine the probe reflect its potential to cause him damage. He and his allies strove to have Calheiros removed from leading the inquiry, alleging he could not be impartial as his son is the governor of Alagoas state, and the inquiry will probe federal funding of state programs.

Carla Zambelli, a lower house lawmaker and Bolsonaro ally, convinced a court to block Calheiros on Monday night, but the decision was later reversed by another federal court.

On Tuesday, Calheiros said he would act impartially and that the probe would be “deep, technical, focused on its objectives and depoliticized.”

“The country has a right to know who contributed to the thousands of deaths, and they should be punished,” he added.

He said he had proposed calling for testimony from current Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga, as well as his predecessors during the pandemic, including Pazuello.

https://www.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSL1N2MK21V

Anvisa (the brazilian FDA) denied permission to the russian vaccine Sputnik V. According to Anvisa, the Institute Gamaleya didn't provide enough documents showing the evidence of the efficacy.
Since it was found that Trump administration advised Latin American governments not to purchase Sputnik V, there was the suspicion that this decision was influenced by politics. 60 countries have allowed the use of Sputnik V. However, the report considering that the documents provided by Gamaleya were not enough were written by the scientists who are employed at Anvisa much time before Bolsonaro became the president of Brazil. Even opponents of Bolsonaro considered that the decision of Anvisa was supported by scientific facts (I don't have opinion about it yet).
Until now, Brazil is using only Coronavac and Oxford AstraZeneca. Some Pfizer doses will arrive in June.

My opinion about these findings about Sputnik vaccine is that either the Brazilian institute found real evidence about its unsafety (which assuming is the case and I don’t doubt it, has global repercussions as many other countries like Argentina started using it) OR it’s a political decision in order to block that particular vaccine here and prevent Northeastern governors (who started a deal with Russian government) to get very ahead in the vaccination in their states, taking away political points from Bolsonaro.

Both theories are pretty valid IMO

Bolsonaro's government approval Poder Data poll:

Approve: 35%

Disapprove: 57%

Don't know: 8%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/04/pd-bolsonaro-drive-28-abr-2021-4.png

Bolsonaro's approval has not going well since the beginning of March, with the explosion of cases and deaths of Covid, because Bolsonaro has denied 11 vaccine orders since the beginning of the pandemic, one of them denying 70 million doses of the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine, added to the military crisis at the end of March, and now with opening of the Senate inquiry into misuse of resources in the pandemic, added to the denialist action in relation to the disease through the criminal government of Jair Bolsonaro and his ministers.

Bolsonaro´s approval of his Presidency, Poder Data poll:

Excelent/good: 26%

Regular: 19%

Bad/Terrible: 51%

Don't know: 4%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/04/pd-bolsonaro-drive-28-abr-2021-1.png

Bolsonaro's government approval - stratification Poder Data poll:

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/04/pd-bolsonaro-drive-28-abr-2021-4.png

Evaluation of the Bolsonaro's government  - stratification Poder Data poll:

https://static.poder360.com.br/2021/04/pd-bolsonaro-drive-28-abr-2021-2.png

There's a difference between the Bolsonaro's government's approval numbers and his personal approval as President. Some Brazilians tend to hold him more responsible than other members of his government, saving people like Economy minister Paulo Guedes.

There's also a discrepancy between the numebers in few Brazilian geographic regions: especially in the Centro-Oeste region (Midwest region), a region of many wealthy farmers, with certain similarities between American states like Texas and the Great Plains Region in the north-central of the US, with their rural population very loyal to Bolsonaro and the conservatism, with high rejection numbers. The other is the South Region, which gave Bolsonaro 70% of the votes in the 2nd round in 2018,with a much higher rejection rate against Bolsonaro in the second survey, which shows that Brazilian surveys are not always reliable.

As I mentioned, I trust in the full results of Poder Data polls, but not in the sub-groups. Maybe, there is the small sample bias. The approval rates change a lot according to income groups from one survey to another. Besides, only Poder Data shows low approval rate for Bolsonaro in the Midwest. Other polls show that the Midwest is the region where the approval rate is the highest one.
The Midwest region is the most important region of the agrobusiness.

1st round poll:

()

Runoff scenarios polls:

()

This happened in Rio de Janeiro this week:

https://mobile.twitter.com/_Tsardinha/status/1390442693956866051
People from the other Brazilian cities are probably correct to be scared of my Rio. This is basically death penalty (illegal) being given and without trials.

I do believe Bolsonaro will be remain in office after the election in 2022. From what I understand, the military is 100% behind him in the event he refuses to leave. But autocrats tend not to lose elections, so he'll probably win regardless; our luck sucks.

New DataFolha poll

DataFolha is the most common pollster alongside IBOPE during Brazilian election.

1st round poll:

Lula 41%
Bolsonaro 23%
Sérgio Moro 7%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Luciano Huck 4%
João Doria 3%
Henrique Mandetta 2%
João Amoedo 2%

Runoff simulations:

Lula 55% vs Bolsonaro 32%
Lula 53% vs Sérgio Moro 33%
Lula 57% vs João Doria 21%
Ciro Gomes 48% vs Bolsonaro 36%
João Doria 40% vs Bolsonaro 39%

Rejection rates (% who say they wouldn’t vote for that candidate):

Bolsonaro 54%
Lula 36%
João Doria 30%
Luciano Huck 29%
Sérgio Moro 26%
Ciro Gomes 24%

These results actually make me want to vote for Ciro more in the hopes someone in the 3rd path takes Bolsonaro out from the runoff lol.

That said, these results sound optimistic while the XP poll pessimistic. XP tends to overestimate the right and DataFolha overestimated the left in 2020 mayoral elections.

If I had to guess, reality is probably something in between. I would think Lula is definitely 1st, but not on an almost +20% lead in the 1st round. Something like Lula in the middle 30s percentage and Bolsonaro in the high 20s percentage is more likely. With Lula winning runoff with a similar margin that Bolsonaro won in 2018.

Demographic groups that favor each candidate the most:

LULA:

- People who support Social Isolation measures during the pandemic: 58%
- People from the Northeast region: 56%
- Low education (Finished middle school): 51%
- Income less than two minimum wages per month: 47%

BOLSONARO:
- People who are normally living their regular lives during the pandemic: 36%
- Income between 5 and 10 minimum wages: 30%
- Men: 29%
- People from the South, Center-West or North regions: 28%


Interesting result that led me to believe this is overestimating the left a bit, even if I think Lula has lots of significant support in that demographic (way more than average leftist):

Evangelicals
Lula 35% vs Bolsonaro 34%

Ciro Gomes performs in his best among the people who finished university (11%) and among the richest (13%).

João Doria clearly is the weakest candidate despite the vaccine success, he hasn’t been able to translate that into vote intention.

Luciano Huck and Sergio Moro aren’t going to run and it’s embarrassing that these institutes keep pushing them as likely options.

Damn. The global experimentation with populist nationalism is coming to an end most ricki-tik.

Thank you, China.

Thank you, Chinese lab virus.

All Hail the People's Republic!

All Hail Xi Jingping!!!!!

DataFolha also questioned Brazilians about their opinion about the Bolsonaro government:

Great/Good: 24% (-6)
Regular: 30% (+6)
Bad/Awful: 45% (+1)
No opinion: 1% (-1)

Unlike the previous Datafolha polls, this poll was conducted by interviewing people at the streets and not by phone. Offline Datafolha polls are more reliable and closer to polls from other institutes made by phone. Datafolha polls made by phone used to overestimate Bolsonaro's approval rate.

Details of Datafolha Poll

Total: Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 11%

Gender
Men: Lula 42%, Bolsonaro 29%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 8%
Women: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 19%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 11%

Age
16-24: Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 18%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 8%, other 14%
25-34: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 24%, Moro 4%, Ciro Gomes 7%, other 11%
35-44: Lula 38%, Bolsonaro 26%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 9%
45-59: Lula 43%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 4%, other 11%
60-: Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 24%, Moro 9%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 11%

School
Elementary: Lula 51%, Bolsonaro 20%, Moro 4%, Ciro Gomes 2%, other 9%
High School: Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 26%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 10%
College: Lula 30%, Bolsonaro 22%, Moro 10%, Ciro Gomes 11%, other 15%

Monthy Household Income
- US$400: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 20%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 8%
US$400-US$1000: Lula 34%, Bolsonaro 29%, Moro 9%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 12%
US$1000-US$2000: Lula 26%, Bolsonaro 30%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 10%, other 14%
US$2000-: Lula 18%, Bolsonaro 24%, Moro 10%, Ciro Gomes 13%, other 22%

Region
Southeast: Lula 36%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 7%, other 12%
South: Lula 36%, Bolsonaro 28%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 3%, other 12%
Northeast: Lula 56%, Bolsonaro 18%, Moro 3%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 6%
Center-West/North: Lula 35%, Bolsonaro 28%, Moro 12%, Ciro Gomes 4%, other 9%

Type of municipality
Metro area: Lula 38%, Bolsonaro 24%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 12%
Countryside: Lula 43%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 10%

Race
Brown: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 25%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 10%
White: Lula 32%, Bolsonaro 27%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 7%, other 13%
Black: Lula 53%, Bolsonaro 14%, Moro 5%, Ciro Gomes 4%, other 9%

Religion
Catholic: Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 19%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 10%
Evangelic: Lula 35%, Bolsonaro 34%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 4%, other 11%

other = Huck + Doria + Mandetta + Amoedo

Lol at both Lula and Bolsonaro having better percentages with men than with women.

Kinda expected though? Lula and the PT always performed better with men, while women tended to favor more the center-right PSDB.

Then after PSDB fall and the Bolsonaro rise, things shifted in 2018. Women favored Haddad while men voted for Bolsonaro, as Haddad and the left became the more “boring” option.

I think it’s safe to say that men are more inclined to personalism and passionate rhetoric while women are kinda more centrists, against radical change.

Brazilian men are way more emotional and vote for the candidate they love, women are more controlled and think more before choosing someone.

So not a surprise that the gender gap is larger with Bolsonaro than with Lula, as Lula this time is the more “logical” and pragmatic option between the two.

Men only favor Lula more than Women by +2 (42% with Men, 40% with Women).

With Bolsonaro, men like him more by +10 (29% Men, 19% Women).

Female voters are more likely to look outside the box for a 3rd option, as they’re more reflexive of their vote. Men are more impulsive and go with the flow. Unlike Lula and Bolsonaro, every other candidate does better with women in comparison with men.

Yeah.
Always when Lula ran for president, between 1989 and 2006, he had more male vote than female vote. Even in 2010, his candidate Dilma Rousseff had more male vote than female vote. It is a shock for people from other countries: a left-wing woman performed better in the group of men than in the group of women. In 2014, however, Dilma had more female voters. One of the motives is that Aécio Neves had sexist attitudes. In 2018, Haddad performed much better in the group of women. Other motive of the change was the feminist wave in Latin America, including Brazil, in the 2010s.
Lula has a group of low income elementary school male voters who don't vote for PT for other offices. In many poor municipalities in the North and Northeast in which Lula was >80% in 2006, there is no PT vereador.

Brazilian left has a problem: no leader other than Lula is able to have high popularity in the group of voters who don't have a college degree. Other PT politicians, and also PSOL, PCdoB and PDT politicians fail to have popularity in the group of voters who don't have college degree. Lula, on the other side, performs much better in the group of voters who have only elementary school.

I don’t comment cause I don’t have sh**t to say but I appreciate both of y’all for keeping me up to date with Brazil

I still firmly believe Bolsonaro will win re-election in 2022. He wasn't expected to win in 2018 and he did. Besides, the military is entirely behind him.

You’re welcome, if you have any questions feel free to ask.


He has chances but not because of the military.

The military is divided. On one hand, Bolsonaro gives them tons of representation in his government and prioritized them in terms of federal budget. He did that because he WISHES that can buy him their unconditional support. So that makes them comfortable with him.

On the other hand, by being inside his government they associate their images with his image. That includes all the anti-science BS, the antivaxx craziness, the racism and authoritarianism, etc. Which can be damaging to their reputation as a serious institution, since Bolsonaro is not a serious person.

The Brazilian military came out post-dictatorship very hated, making them pursue a more clean image. Part of that includes investment on scientific projects for example, in order to make them look like specialists on some areas. Which was helpful for them to create a new image of serious and respectable institution.

Bolsonaro is destroying all that, I mean, the participation of military actors inside the Bolsonaro government. Older upper active members specifically, are very uncomfortable with that because not only it’s making more people go back to seeing them in a similar way from the past, but it’s also giving them this new image of incompetence and stupidity. The health minister was a member of the military and he was a failure, being roasted by the media and different sectors of society.

So they’re in this position of “We don’t like how Bolsonaro is making we look super-dumb but getting privileges is cool”. They will keep being parasites inside the Bolsonaro government but so far it’s unlikely they are willing to follow him in everything he does considering his image is toxic and doesn’t give them credibility.

Actually, Bolsonaro already tried to have his coup by planning to close the Supreme Court behind doors but the main military leaders refused to do so. Which made him pissed, as he wants them to be HIS military, not the military of the country. That happened at the start of the pandemic, I think May 2020.

So I think at least so far it’s unlikely that the military is willing to completely sacrifice themselves for scum like Bolsonaro. They are more independent actors than that, if they wanted a coup they most certainly would get rid of Bolsonaro as well so that they could rule without his presence destroying their reputation and credibility.

Regarding elections, there isn’t much they can or even want to do. Bolsonaro is getting crazy with the prospects of losing election so he is pushing for congress to abolish electronic voting and to go back to paper voting, since paper vote is less safe and gives him opportunities to rig.

Is this actually true?

Bolsonaro WAS expected to win in 2018. During all 2017 and 2018, he was leading the polls in which Lula was not included.

On the other hand, Bolsonaro's victory was only guaranteed with the attack he suffered on September 6th 2018 in the muncipality of Juiz de Fora, in the state of Minas Gerais, when a former member of the Brazilian party PSOL (Socialism and Liberty Party) called Adélio Bispo de Oliveira stabbed Bolsonaro, which prevented him from appearing on television debates among presidential candidates and allowed to win the Worker's Party candidate, Fernando Haddad (who suceeded Lula with his arrest and loss of political rights), in the second round, in October 28, 2018, with 55,13% of valid votes.

Sao Paulo's mayor Bruno Covas (PSDB), 41, died today due a gastric cancer. He'll replaced by Ricardo Nunes (PMDB).

Shame. He had a 15 year old son apparently.

The Supreme Court in Brazil is very corrupt

Are they? That’s news to me. I’m very concerned now.

I think US politicians from both parties are very corrupt as well but there isn’t a system strong enough to supervise them and discover all the hidden dirt. I think democracy should completely end in the US for its well-being and best interests because clearly it’s a system that will always put crooks in the likes of Hillary and Trump into the spotlight, as it’s all an excuse for secret hidden powers to rig everything from the start.

Hopefully together we can all change this disgusting dirt ruling over the world! I’m with you.

Lula has just confirmed that he will be a candidate for President!

Yesterday and today, former health minister general Eduardo Pazuello was interrogated by the senators in the pandemic inquiry. On Tuesday, former ministry pf foreign affairs Ernesto Araújo was interrogated. Since both former minnisters are still Bolsonaro's allies, their testimonials didn't hurt the president.

The testimonials from the director of Pfizer in Brazil and from former minister of health Henrique Mandetta caused bigger damage to Bolsonaro.

Lula 2002 propaganda:

My king is alive!

EXAME IDEIA 2022 poll:

1st round:

spontaneous poll (without saying the names of the candidates):

Lula (Worker's Party - PT)  19%
Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 17%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT)  4%
Sérgio Moro (no party) 2%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 2%
Luciano Huck (no party) 1%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM) 0,5%
Eduardo Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 0,3%
Tasso Jereissati (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 0,3%
Other 0,3%
Don't know: 46%
Nobody/blank/null: 7%

2st round scenarios:
with Bolsonaro
spontaneous poll:
Bolsonaro 37% vs. Lula 45%
Bolsonaro 45% vs. Huck 39%
Bolsonaro 40% vs. Ciro Gomes 37%
Bolsonaro 40% vs. Sérgio Moro 36%
Bolsonaro 46% vs. João Doria 33%
Bolsonaro 44% vs. Tasso Jereissati 30%
Bolsonaro 44% vs. Eduardo Leite 29%
Bolsonaro 46% vs. João Amoêdo 26%
Bolsonaro 47% vs. Danilo Gentili 23%

with Lula (without Bolsonaro)
Lula 44% vs. Huck 40%
Lula 43% vs. Moro 40%
Lula 43% vs. Ciro Gomes 35%
Lula 47% vs. Eduardo Leite 30%
Lula 47% vs. Tasso Jereissati  30%
Lula 45% vs. João Doria 28%
Lula 46% vs. João Amoedo 19%
Lula 47% vs. Danilo Gentili 17%

In both scenarios, Lula beats all his opponents, with tougher victories against third-way candidates Sérgio Moro and Luciano Huck, who end up losing very little. On the other hand, Bolsonaro defeats all his opponents except Lula, which shows a third-way candidate still very weak.

Ex-president FHC (PSDB) had a public meeting with Lula and said that if the 2022 runoff ends up being between Lula and Bolsonaro, he will easily vote for Lula.

Nice gesture after the PT and PSDB rivalry reached its peak in 2014, with Aécio Neves literally not recognizing his loss. I always respected PSDB leaders like Serra, Alckmin and FHC, even if I don’t like them politically. But I never respected Aécio.

Former presidents Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Luís Inácio Lula da Silva had a meeting. Cardoso told that if the PSDB candidate fail to reach the runoff in 2022, he will endorse Lula against Bolsonaro.

Nice to see leaders who, despite the differences, try to sit and talk against a common (and horrible) enemy.

Instituto Mapa poll

Runoff:

Lula 51,4%
Bolsonaro 31,5%
Blank/Null 11,7%
Don’t Know 5,5%


1st round:

Lula (center-left) 36,8%
Bolsonaro (right) 26,8%
Sérgio Moro (right) 5,1%
Ciro Gomes (center-left) 5,0%
Luciano Huck (center) 4,5%
João Doria (center-right) 3,3%
Luiz Mandetta (center-right) 2,7%
João Amoedo (libertarian) 2,6%

In many large cities, there were demonstrations for the impeachment of Bolsonaro. They were the first big left-wing demonstrations since the beggining of the pandemic.

During these 15 months, many leaders of left-wing parties considered that it would be contradictory criticize the lack of policies related to the pandemic and call for demonstrations. Many protests during this period were made online, or with cacerolazzos at the windows of flats or using cars.

But today, the left-wing parties decided to call for the demonstrations. The risk of transmission is low in open spaces, where everybody is using mask and keeping safe distance.

Definitely looks bad for Bolsonaro right now. It’s not over, but certainly hopeful.

There was a police reaction of brutality in the city of Recife, in the state of Pernambuco. Even a female city council member got targeted.

International media is making this more news than Brazilian media. You would think it’s because they want to be “impartial” and want to give the same low coverage as past pro-Bolsonaro manifests, but I remember things were very different in mid-2010s with all the anti-PT hysteria and the maximum coverage they gave to a bunch of right-wingers on the streets.

If Chile and Peru  up at least Brazil can save us.

Brazilian media is one of the most disgraceful things I’ve seen. They’re different because they try to sell themselves as “impartial” but they’re super partisan based on what they choose to say and what they ignore.

Of the major printed newspapers, only “Folha de São Paulo” covered it with the necessary space. “O Globo” and “Estadão” gave more focus to boring stuff unrelated to yesterday, like Home Office effects on touristic cities.

On TV media, there was also little space given by Globonews and CNN Brasil. CNN is one of the most popular broadcasters between Bolsonaro supporters, not because they will openly kiss their ass, but because they will often put to debate a prepared person saying logical stuff based on data and a crazy right-winger saying conspiracy theories, acting like that is really impartial because they’re hearing two equally opposite sides.

Open TV media isn’t better. Globo naturally underplayed it as well, giving it the same space they did to smaller pro-Bolsonaro protests a month ago. Record is much worse, it lied about the main reason of the protests and just said they were organized to demand a raise in the emergency checks without giving it bigger coverage.

I feel like most countries are kinda like this regardless if they’re a better or worse version. We’re all being fed with propaganda. International media is always a better tool to understand what is going in your own country than Domestic lying media who will always be responding to people above. Internationally, you don’t have these hidden country elite interests controlling so much, which is why foreigners become a better guide.

These protests were the biggest news in yesterday’s general website cover of The Guardian and Le Monde.

NEWS: Bolsonaro has made a deal to join PATRIOTAS (Patriots Party) for the 2022 election.

Bolsonaro was in PSL (Social Liberal Party) but left it in November 2019, months after elected, because of internal disputes and faction conflicts he started. He has been party-less since then and had announced plans of creating his own party: Aliança pelo Brasil (ApB), but has given up because you need a minimum of public signatures in order to start a political party in Brazil and it eventually became evident last year that he wouldn’t be able to get enough signatures in time.

So now he’s opting to join an existing political party just like he had done with PSL prior to his election. The Patriot Party is a smallish party, like PSL also was, but has gained more relevance in past years after their rebrand (Before changing to Patriot, their previous name was National Ecological Party). Difference is that PSL only became far-right because Bolsonaro joined it, bringing lots of far-right elected people with him, but the party leadership wasn’t extremist, which is why conflicts started.

With Patriotas I suppose it will be different because it has been a far-right party for some time already, since their rebranding, so maybe there won’t be many conflicts between Bolsonaro and the party like there was with PSL? Will Bolsonaro even get elected in order for us to know the answer to this question? Let’s wait and see.

Probably Lula is most likely to beat Bolsonoaro. I'd like some younger center-left politician, but Bolsonaro is a fascist and whoever stands the greatest chance should challenge him.

I would like to see Lula replaced by someone younger as the most important leader of the Brazilian left too. The problem is that no one other than Lula in the left is popular in the group of voters who don't have a college degree. Fernando Haddad, Ciro Gomes, Guilherme Boulos, Marcelo Freixo and Manuela dÁvila are more popular in the very educated segment of the middle class.

However, I would vote for Lula not only if the runoff is between him and Bolsonaro. I would also vote for Lula if the runoff is between him and someone from the non Bolsonaro right, like João Doria, Eduardo Leite, Tasso Jereissati and Luciano Huck.

Maybe, after the disaster of Bolsonaro, the left performs better in 2022. Guilherme Boulos is leading the polls for governor of São Paulo. Marcelo Freixo is leading the polls for governor of Rio de Janeiro. Boulos and Freixo will probably be the PSOL candidates for governor of their states.
https://revistaforum.com.br/politica/boulos-aparece-em-primeiro-para-o-governo-de-sp-em-cenario-com-haddad-marcio-franca-e-skaf-diz-atlas-politico2/
https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2021/06/02/marcelo-freixo-lidera-pesquisa-de-intencao-de-voto-para-o-governo-do-rio-de-janeiro?fbclid=IwAR1LBYphOH2g3IWcIuIifIGp4IWdO6gtW7O5B-Wl-MaTe60IkRUYBA4UGHw
PSOL is divided concerning the candidate for president in 2022. The moderate and majority wing think that PSOL should endorse Lula already in the 1st round, in order to avoid the split of the left-wing vote. This split could cause a runoff between center-right and Bolsonaro (similar to France 2002). The far left wing considers that PSOL should have a candidate in the 1st round and they are considering the possibility of the very left-wing representative Glauber Braga.

The 2021 Copa America (that would be 2020 Copa America) would be hosted by Argentina and Colombia. Both countries declined due to the pandemic and all the crisis related to the pandemic.

Brazil will host the tournment, as if there were no serious problems here. Most of the soccer managers ("cartolas") in Brazil are very close to Bolsonaro. The games will be played in empty stadiums, but the biggest problem is not the virus spread during the games. The biggest problem is that we should have focus in other priorities.

Brazil uses electronic voting machines in every precint. The proceeding of the votes is the fastest of the countries which have >100M inhabitants. The machines have a flopy disk. They are not connected to the Internet. There is no danger of a hacker attack. It is possible to make auditing of the polls.
However, Bolsonaro and his cattle are giving alegations that these polls are not safe, that frauds might occur. Actually, the electronic machines are much safer than paper ballots. He is demading that the votes casted in the machine should be printed and that these papers should be counted in order to check if they match to the electronic result. Of course, there will be no time to add a printer in every machine until October 2022. Besides, the costs would be very high. The results of the paper count would not be equal to the electronic results in 100% of the precints because in some precints, someone could loose some pieces of paper.
The consequence of this distrust would be an excuse to Bolsonaro and his cattle create a turmoil in 2022 if he looses, like Trump did this year and Keiko Fujimori is doing now. In the US, however, the votes Trump's base didn't trust were paper votes sent by mail.

Some countries don't trust in elections without paper. The Supreme Court in Germany didn't alow electronic vote. But there was never evidence that electronic voting in Brazil was rigged. This distrust made by Bolsonaro is useful to weaken the democracy in Brazil.

Poder Data 2022 poll:

1st round

Jair Bolsonaro (no party)  33%
Lula (Worker's Party - PT) 31%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT) 10%
Luciano Huck (no party) 4%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM) 4%
João Amoedo (New Party - NOVO) 3%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 3%
blank/null: 7%
don't know: 5%

2nd round scenarios

Bolsonaro 37% vs. Lula 48%
Bolsonaro 35% vs. Huck 45%
Bolsonaro 36% vs. Ciro 44%
Bolsonaro 39% vs. Doria 39%
Lula 45% vs. Huck 24%
Lula 42% vs. Ciro 22%

Lula's margin against Bolsonaro decreased from April to June.
The other possible candidates did better in June than they did in April.

I always imagine how centrists from the outside see these elections lmao. Like, who they would like?

Between 3 leading candidates:

1. Lula - Was part of the pink tide in LatAm,  got jailed but then the whole process was declared biased, is one of the most known leftist leaders in the world.

2. Bolsonaro - Part of the populist right trend, loves Donald Trump, very conservative on cultural issues, scandals on the news every week.

3. Ciro - Tries to dispute the protagonism of the left and attacks Lula for being “too neoliberal” during his 00s term, especially in regards deindustrialization.

Then there is all the people I would expect centrists to like, distant from the top 3:

- Luciano Huck at 4th, a TV host that never held public office, even if he was painting himself as the most centrist option (socially progressive, economically center-right).

- Henrique Mandetta at 5th, an average and boring center-right establishment candidate that is only being considered because he stood up against Bolsonaro when he was his Health minister at the beginning of the COVID pandemic.

- João Amoedo at 6th as the Libertarian option that edgy right-wingers who are more intellectual and usually from big cities like.

- João Doria in 7th (!!!) as the PSDB candidate, the center-right party that used to be the main representative of Brazilian right before it radicalized and shifted to Bolsonaro.

Marcelo Freixo was one of the most important PSOL leaders. He used to be state representative of Rio de Janeiro, and now he is a federal representative. He ran for mayor of the municipality of Rio de Janeiro in 2012 and 2016 and he was the 2nd place the two times. He never ran for governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro, because the elections for governor and for representative take place at the same time.
Today, he decided to leave PSOL and join PSB, a more moderate party. He will run for governor of Rio de Janeiro in 2022. He considered that he would not be competitive in PSOL, since far-left groups inside the party don't support broad coalitions. Probably, PT will endorse Freixo, who met Lula yesterday. Freixo's wife joined PT. Freixo will be advised by many experts and some of them are not very leftist. In economics, he will be advised by the young rising left-wing star Laura Carvalho but he will also be advised by former PSDB economist André Lara Resende. Both economists had a PhD in the New School of Social Research in NYC. In law enforcement, Freixo will be advised by former minister Raul Jungmann, who worked for Temer's administration (2016-2018).
Freixo's plan is not to have a left vs right contest, but a civilization vs barbarian contest. Probably, his opponent will be someone endorsed by Bolsonaro.

I am following the thread about Germany and I am reading about internal disputes inside the Linke. PSOL is the brazilian copy of the Linke and it is facing similar problems. Both parties don't have a single program, they are umbrellas of different left-wing organizations, and each of these organizations try to control the party.
PSOL lost 3 important members in Rio de Janeiro in the last month: former vereador Renato Cinco left PSOL because he is not considering this party left-wing enough. Marcelo Freixo and Jean Wyllys left PSOL because they are considering this party too left-wing. Jean Wyllys, who was an important federal representative, joined PT.
Despite internal disputes, Freixo didn't left PSOL because of these disputes. According to the reaction of his fellows, it is possible to conclude that there was no fight. He will keep a good relation with PSOL. But he thinks he will be more competititive in a more centrist party.

XP Ipespe 2022 poll:

1st round

Spontaneous poll:

Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 24%
Lula (Worker's Party - PT) 24%
Ciro Gomes(Democratic Labour Party - PDT) 3%
Sérgio Moro (no party) 1%
João Amoêdo (New Party - NOVO) 1%
Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party - PSOL) 1%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 1%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats -DEM) 0%
Fernando Haddad (Worker's Party - PT) 0%

Don't know/don't answer: 36%
Blank/null: 8%

1st round

Stimulated poll:

Lula 32%
Bolsonaro 28%
Sérgio Moro 7%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Luciano Huck 4%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta 3%
João Doria 3%
Guilherme Boulos 2%
DK/DA/None/Blank/Null: 15%

2nd round

Lula 45% vs. Bolsonaro 36%
Ciro Gomes 41% vs. Bolsonaro 37%
Sérgio Moro 32% vs. Bolsonaro 32%
Luciano Huck 34% vs. Bolsonaro 37%
Guilherme Boulos 30% vs. Bolsonaro 30%
João Doria 33% vs. Bolsonaro39%
Lula 43% vs. Sérgio Moro 35%

The XP Ipespe poll, as well as a few other Brazilian polls, is still doing polls with some names that have already abndoned their candidacies, such as former federal judge Sérgio Moro, leftist actvist Guilherme Boulos and businessman and president of the New Party (NOVO), João Amoêdo, who today declared that he will not run in 2022, unlike the Poder Data survey that I have shown yesterday.

In a post-Lula Brazil, could Flavio Dino possibly have a path to the presidency. The information I’m getting is that he’s pretty pragmatic and well-liked in office.

Zema is the current governor (elected in the Bolsonaro 2018; he aligned with him) and the left actually really likes Kalil (Belo Horizonte mayor) in Minas.

It will probably be polarized between the two.

If they are tied now, good news for Khalil. Of course Zema has the advantage of being incumbent, and so, 16 months before the election, more people know him. During the campaign, more people of the countryside will hear about Khalil. In Belo Horizonte, where people are ruled both by Zema and Khalil, the mayor has a big margin.

Good news for Lula he is leading against Bolsonaro in Minas Gerais. During the New Republic (1985-present), Minas Gerais is the bellwether state. All winning presidential candidates had the majority of votes in this state. The margins are usually close to the national margin. Minas Gerais is like what Ohio was until 2012.

Luciano Huck and João Amoedo told that they will not run for president in 2022

Paraná Pesquisas 2022 poll:

1st round

Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 34,3%
Lula (Worker's Party - PT)32,5%
José Luiz Datena (no party) 7,5%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT) 5,8%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 3,4%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM) 3,2%
Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement - MDB) 1,1%
Blanks/nulls: 8,6%
Don't know/don't answer: 3,6%

2nd round
Lula (Worker's Party - PT) 40,2%
Bolsonaro (no party) 40%

There were very big demonstrations against Bolsonaro in Brazilian big cities
In open spaces, where everybody wear masks, the risk is low
I didn't go because the place where the demonstration was scheduled in Rio de Janeiro (Avenida Presidente Vargas) is far from my home and I would need to take the metro. Open spaces are safe, but the public transportation is not.
After everyone have the vaccine, the demonstrations will be even bigger

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/19/fresh-protests-in-brazil-against-bolsonaros-handling-of-covid-pandemic

I believe Bolsonaro will be re-elected. I know that politics in Brazil aren't the same as politics in the USA, but we live in the darkest timeline. Say bye-bye to any serious efforts to tackle climate change succeeding, or COVID ending.

And I believe that dooming such as the above isn't at all helpful.

No reason at all why Lula can't triumph (without him it would be less rosy I agree)

The probability of his reelection is low but not zero. It is possible. All the adults will receive the vaccine shots until October 2021. Probably, the pandemic will not be the most important issue in 2022. His administration is a catastrophe, but since the output is lower than the potential output, there is some iddle capacity, and so, some growth is possible to happen in 2022. China is recovering, and so, the price of the soybean and of the sugar is increasing again, and this is good (in the short term) for the Brazilian economy.
Besides, the 200th aniversary of the Brazilian independence will take place on September 7th 2022. The first round of the election will take place on October 2nd 2022. This is an advantage for the incumbent. I learned in this forum that Geral Ford benefited from the 200th aniversary of the US in 1976. He was much behind Carter, but he could close the gap after the 4th of July.

Missy is getting desperate:

https://www.twitter.com/brunnosarttori/status/1407021012500332544

But the funniest part of the video is Carla Zambelli following her leader and also taking her mask off after he does it  >_<

So for what reason did Flavio Dino leave PCdoB?

New rules that are being increasingly implemented will limit parties access to funding and TV propaganda time. That is stimulating smaller parties to fuse with bigger ones in order to have access to that money and TV time. New rules establish a minimum electoral requirement in order to have access to those things (like, minimum % of the vote for congress in at least a certain number of states, etc).

PCdoB will eventually fuse with PSB, the party where Dino is migrating to. Even PSOL is under risk of not meeting new rules and losing those things. The left-wing parties that don’t face risk are PT, PDT and PSB.

Freixo has even left PSOL too and joined PSB, like Flávio Dino. PSOL has an energetic base of voters but the party is kinda chaotic because of its uncompromising nature even if the politicians in it are great. PSB is becoming this neutral big tent left party with the more socialist figures like Flavio Dino and the more liberal corporate friendly ones like Tabata Amaral (who got trashed by the left for voting in favor of neoliberal reforms) while there is an ideological clash between PT and PDT (Lulismo/Petismo vs Brizolismo/Varguismo).

Good news

Ricardo Salles, the Ministry of Environment who hates the environment resigned. He was found in a scandal related to the permission of the exports of wood collected through a ilegal way in the Amazon Forest.

https://www.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1408020715975106563?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

Marcelo Freixo now being polled with his new party PSB, instead of PSOL.

This same poll shows that Lula is leading the vote for president in Rio de Janeiro. He is polling better than Bolsonaro.

In 2018, PSOL had 2.85% of the vote for the House. This is enough to have federal funding.

However, PSOL should take care to keep (or to increase this vote). The party lost Jean Wyllys and Marcelo Freixo. They need to use other stars to attract more votes. In Rio de Janeiro, Chico Alencar and Tarsício Motta should run for the House. In São Paulo, 2 representatives already attract votes: Sâmia Bonfim and Ivan Valente.

https://www.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1408260435262967813?ref_src=twsrc%5E...
Ipec is the new Ibope (alongside Datafolha, one of the most traditional Brazilian polling institutes for elections).

It’s showing a Lula win already in the 1st round, without a runoff. Thatsomething he didn’t even manage to do in the 00s, both of his two victories happened with a runoff! Only president since redemocratization to have won in 1st round was FHC in both of his terms in the 90s.

That’s impressive but it reflects how much Bolsonaro is absolutely hated by Brazilians nowadays. That polarization (which Brazilian right created!) combined with the Supreme Court clearing Lula’s name, was decisive in shifting the mood of the nation.

Bolsonaro is also about to face new problems in the future… Bad administration combined with environmental natural events resulted in a big risk of lack of energy problems, which could lead to voluntary blackouts in order to save energy, something we don’t see since late FHC 2nd term in 2001, which was his most unpopular moment!

The confusing privatization of Eletrobras also has the potential for worsening things up, leading to higher energy prices for the consumer. Even people who were defending the privatization of that company changed their discourse to a more negative opinion because congress included a bunch of unrelated stuff as conditions to the privatization (basically, multiple powerful interests wanting to assure they will have some share of control over the company). I’ve even seen Globo, biggest Brazilian media, which always was enthusiastic about the neoliberal reforms and privatizations, be somewhat critical of this particular one and how it happened in the terms it did.

COVID investigation comittee is also on fire, pressing the Bolsonaro government a lot this week. I haven’t followed it so much but apparently there’s a recent important discovery of a document that evidences corruption in the process of buying Covaxin Indian vaccines. There was giant pressure from the government to buy those for a much larger and absurd prices while the safety and efficiency of that specific vaccine wasn’t clear. At the same time, the process of buying Pfizer vaccines was sabotaged by the government on purpose, with ELEVEN selling proposals by Pfizer simply being ignored by Bolsonaro.

Mayyyybe this could lead to complications to Bolsonaro on a criminal level but I’m not really sure to say that it will or it won’t happen. Heard rumors of TSE possibly making him ineligible as well? Sometimes things in this country can be exhausting, like an unpredictable tv series with tons of plots and twists. So I don’t dare to make any predictions about where these investigations will lead or if there will be any accountability for the crimes of the agents involved.

Wasn't there a poll just the other day that had Bolsonaro and Lula neck and neck?

What's going on??

Polling methods. Ipec and Datafolha are more trustworthy because they ask on the streets, being more representative imo. The others are done by telephone and I think that limits your reach in some demographic levels.

Bolsonaro will win in 2022, and nothing will change my mind.

For those who understand this slang: Bolsonaro's potato is baking
The inquiry in the Senate was created in order to investigate the mismanagement of the pandemic. Now, it was found possibility of corruption in the purchase of Indian vaccine Covaxin.

Well, all the mismanagement of the pandemic was much worse than a simple corruption scandal. 500K people died, maybe twice as much if the pandemic were better managed. But the discovery of a possible corruption scandal makes the situation of Bolsonaro worse.

We already knew about Bolsonaro's corruption scandals prior to the 2018 election. I'm not convinced this will move the needle.

Today was the end of his government. The COVID investigation comittee was on fire and it was revealed that Bolsonaro knew that the leader of his government in congress was involved with schemes that were taking away public money used for the response to the pandemic. Bolsonaro did nothing even though he knew this was happening.

Luís Miranda, congressman who denounced this conversation, had to go through 7 hours of inquiry before finally giving away the name of the person Bolsonaro talked about in the conversation he had with him. It was Ricardo Barros, leader of Bolsonaro government in congress. Luís Miranda was super scared to give that detail but he eventually did in the very end. I hope he receives lots of protection in order to not be “suicided”.

It’s over. Finally over. Idk if impeachment will happen or not, but Bolsonaro government is over even if he stays until the end of 2022. It will be a zombie government like Dilma’s 2nd term was in 2015-2016, one that she had no power at all. And that’s IF he is lucky enough to be there for one more year.

If I'm remembering the right bill it included clauses on completely unrelated issues in comically corrupt ways. There was a subsidy for bus companies owned by Senators and also a ban on anyone competing with these companies. Absolute nonsense.

The only thing going for Bolsonaro right now is his ability to placate the Center and delay the election. A more interesting question is what happens when Bolsonaro is gone, considering he glues together both supporters and enemies. I have a hard time imagining ex-Bolsonaro voters just going back to voting PSDB.

Who would the right’s candidate be if Bolsonaro is impeached? Is there a chance that he doesn’t run for reelection if he’s not impeached?

Oh I do too. I think anti-PT sentiment made a lot of people to buy Bolsonaro angry anti-establishment narrative, thinking they were destroying PT for the sake of their short-term immediate ambitions, but they were actually destroying PSDB in the medium to long term.

And like them or not, PSDB since the redemocratization has been the counterpoint to PT, it’s main rival. Most privatizations and neoliberal policies in this country were established in the 90s during their reign. Before it, the military always had the nationalistic approach to the economy in the military regime and prior to that there was the populist period with strong Getúlio Vargas influence. And then after the 90s you had four successive PT victories in the 00s and first half of the 2010s.

So I don’t consider that it was a smart strategy for some of the more “intellectual” right-wingers to simply drop the PSDB as establishment trash to join Bolsonaro crazy narrative. Their hate for PT after winning four consecutive times (last one being very polarized election) made them have this main goal of taking it out immediately no matter what. Including dropping an established strong party like PSDB and its structure to join crazy man who channeled their anger against the PT and the political system.

If they were so angry and energized after the 2014 loss, it would have been smarter to just let Dilma collapse by herself. More four years and PT’s image would sink at 2018 much deeper at the mud because of the economy crisis. The focus on the economy would give PSDB a landslide 2018 victory and they would be favorites to win in 2022 as well.

Instead, PSDB, its voters and also all the media chose to use disingenuous “corruption” concerns to motivate the early ousting of the 1st female president who was probably one of the most honest leader that passed in Brasília. Her problem was tons of incompetence in dealing with the economy, but people acted like she was being judged by all the system corruption because that’s what they were most angry about. It made all the process forced, to have her judged by all those crooks in the congress (who are never held accountable for anything!). Also, the treatment given to Lula in his trial and jailing is something I never thought it would be given to any president in the country, something that isn’t even done to congressmen accused of much more terrible stuff than Lula ever was. It was clear they were also pressing hard for political motives, even if I don’t necessarily think he was a saint either.

All this gave the left the very base of a narrative to work with. And then these people who campaigned for the Lula arrest elected Bolsonaro, who put the judge responsible for the arrest as his minister, which sealed the fate of the Brazilian right in losing the narrative dispute in the long term. Domestically and internationally. You can’t support a notorious villain who always behaved in a destructive manner and think that’s great long-term strategy. But they weren’t thinking on the long-term, they wanted to burn things down and the agents with more fascist characteristics probably also hoped that Bolsonaro would stay forever in power through force or be competent to establish a coup or something. That kind of authoritarian mind-of-thought that you can achieve all you want by brute force.

The result of all this is a precocious revival of the left. Like I said, in the alternative timeline in which the right was less impulsive, PSDB would have won in 2018 and 2022 and if they managed to do a competent job, they would be looking good for 2026 as well. Instead, the PT left will win in 2022 and frankly, they are looking good for the future as well because PSDB is currently destroyed on a federal level (5% in the polls) and Bolsonaro is the main representative of the right now. But he’s way too hated to win anything against anyone after his incendiary government, making the long term scenario be a polarization of the populist Bolsonaro-friendly right vs a revived PT left which is now able to call themselves as the “pragmatic” and “smart” option simply because they aren’t Bolsonaro. That is Heaven scenario for PT, they could continue their reign for a long time.

The radicalization of the Brazilian right represented their destruction. PSDB appeal over PT was their pragmatism on the economy especially, selling the right as the more responsible option. No one can now call the right “responsible” with Bolsonaro as their main representative. They wanted to destroy PT but they actually saved it from its errors and gave them a fast redemption. People are very nostalgic about the idea of late Lula years these days.

IMO, the path for rebuilding a strong right would be building things from the very base instead of betting on quick options. It could be through a revival of PSDB or even by joining a new serious party with clear ideological-driven lines. But it would need lots of people to dump Bolsonaro and I’m not really sure that will ever happen. It COULD happen, if Bolsonaro keeps getting involved in even worse stuff for the next year, but I suspect he will always have something between at least 10%-20% of support, while the others who voted for him but regretted are still lost and scattered in regards what they really want as a collective project (instead of the adventure they bet on) and how to properly confront Bolsonaro in order to take away his right-wing protagonism. What joined all these people was their hate for PT but that proved to not be enough in the construction of a good alternative that is sustainable, it only worked to stop PT consecutive victories in one specific election because that was their only real goal.

Some people here thought the Tories would win in 1997 until the exit poll dropped.

(and even after that in some hardened cases)

Maybe it is too early to celebrate. When minister of Justice Sergio Moro resigned in April 2020 because Jair Bolsonaro wanted to change the director of the Federal Police in Rio de Janeiro in order to protect his son, many people believed it was the end of Bolsonaro.
But, of course, his reelection is becoming even harder. Even if Bolsonaro finishes the term, there is the possibility of he stays out of the runoff in 2022 if there were only one candidate of the left and one candidate of the traditional right, so that the votes are not split.

Representatives, most of them from left-wing parties but also some from right-wing parties, sent a request for the start of a Bolsonaro's impeachment trial for the president of the House Artur Lira. There were many requests to start an impeachment trial, but this one summarizes all cases of misconduct done by Bolsonaro. However, Artur Lira will ignore this request. He has the power to start the impeachment trial, but he won't do it because he is Bolsonaro's ally. Probably, he will do something only if Bolsonaro's situation becomes not sustainable.

Brazil has its Pete Buttigieg: Eduardo Leite, Governor of Rio Grande do Sul state and one of PSDB hopefuls for 2022 presidency, has come out as gay.

https://mobile.twitter.com/g1/status/1410756557047054336

“Pete Buttigieg” not only because it’s new to maybe have someone from a big party who is gay possibly running for President. But also because he’s from PSDB, which we associate with neoliberalism. I can already imagine some gay progressives voting for him even if he’s right-wing because of representation lmao.

That said, I think it’s very amazing for a state Governor to publicly come out as gay in these times. It’s evidence of how the country evolved a lot in these past years, despite Bolsonaro. Eduardo Leite isn’t my candidate but out of all of PSDB options, I hope now he wins the party nomination because if it must be a PSDB neoliberal running the country, I would rather have one that makes sure the Palácio do Planalto will have rainbow lights during LGBT pride! #representation

Bolsoanro says he won't hand over the Presidency if there is any electoral fraud. (https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-says-he-wont-hand-over-presidency-if-there-is-vote-fraud-2021-07-01/)

Eduardo Leite is the first state governor to be open gay. Good news he admitted. I don't have a positive view on him. In the runoff in 2018, he considered Bolsonaro the lesser of the evils. Jair Bolsonaro is homophobic. Fernando Haddad tried to introduce anti LGBT discrimination lessons at school when he was minister of education during Lula's administration. But well, this is diversity in politics: there are politicians we like and politicians we don't like who are members of minorities.

Most of the Brazilians are not prejudiced about homosexuality, but few politicians admitt in public they are homosexuals and few politicians try to introduce anti-discrimination lessons at schools because the evangelicals are well organized and they are swing voters.

If anything, it’s the left who is energetically trashing Eduardo Leite after coming out lol. All the Brazilian left-wing celebs like Felipe Neto, Glenn Greenwald and Jean Wyllys (Ex PSOL congressman who was the first gay member of legislative) are united in having a negative take about this.

I don’t really fully agree tbh although I see the point, I think hyping Leite up for the presidency just because he’s gay is stupid, especially when I don’t agree with him politically. He doesn’t represent me just because he’s a gay. That said, he came out yesterday and I think it’s normal to people to receive the news of Brazil’s first OUT gay Governor with hype in the first day, congratulating him. Naturally, if this lingers for longer and people keep using the dumb identity politics narrative that we gays should support Leite, then it’s a valid argument.

This is only because Leite is establishment center-right neoliberal politician that Globo media likes. If Leite was a left-wing politician they would all be celebrating this and making a big deal of how representation is important. But since he isn’t, the speech shifts to how empty representation is stupid, as Leite voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 despite being gay. Shouldn’t be a good thing that the right is becoming more diverse? That doesn’t mean we have to vote for them lol

I think the idea of PSDB becoming this modern socially liberal right-wing party (kinda like US democratic party) kinda scares the left-wing voters. They do have a point that representation is about what you do for your community and Leite voted for Bolsonaro. But we shouldn’t pretend he was the only gay voting “against” his interests in 2018. He doesn’t represent me but surely there are people who will feel represented by his coming out and they exist too, whether the left likes it or not.

But it’s also true there is only hype because he’s young and hot and has an even hotter boyfriend. If there were women who voted for Collor in 1989 just because of his looks (and he wasn’t even cute imo), then Leite definitely has some potential with women and also gay men demographics in this specific regard. If he was not a heteronormative “Padrão” type, people wouldn’t even be considering him for the presidency. The image privileges of being a cute white gay with power…

I hope he’s the PSDB nominee though! Being gay is enough for me to like someone more than Doria lol

Reminds me of that time Ciro Gomes called Fernando Holiday a bush captain.

The were big protests against Bolsonaro again in many Brasilian cities on July 3rd https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57709301

I went to the demonstration in downtown Rio de Janeiro. Eveybody was wearing masks and avoiding to get to close one from another. I went there walking, in order to avoid the subway. "Only" 5km from my home.

Kinda yes , but Holiday and his discourse always actively worked to antagonize the Black movement and more than just on a policy-matter. The attack, even if heavy (a normal day for Ciro and his tongue) and arguably disproportionate, has a criticism that is valid behind it.

I think Holiday has changed his rhetoric to be less antagonizing of the black movement though. He still criticizes some positions but there isn’t the same type of “disgust” in his rhetoric like before. I think maybe he got more educated and even if he still disagrees with lots of it, he isn’t as disrespectful of the collective movement as a whole.

Eduardo Leite criticism is just because he’s from PSDB, leans towards right-wing economic politics and never had specific LGBT policy history of fighting. As if someone wasn’t allowed to be that just because they’re gay. But I’ve never seen him openly wanting to start a personal feud against the gay community he’s a part of, actively antagonizing LGBT policies. He’s more of a discreet gay who always wanted to not position himself on these matters, while Holiday was a black man who used to like to trash the black movement demands with a very particular focus.

That doesn’t necessarily make Ciro attacks appropriate or proportional, but they definitely have more of an intelectual reasoning behind compared to left-wing attacks against Eduardo Leite when the only thing he did was to publicly come out of the closet. That’s just leftists scared of Eduardo Leite being the new Globo sweetheart and wanting to anticipate a narrative against him in order to assure they will keep social progressives away from supporting him (Kinda like: “Look, he supported homophobe Bolsonaro in 2018, so he doesn’t represent the gays!”).

Eduardo Leite positions on social issues vary. From my understanding he always supported gay marriage (if he didn’t, that would be something that justified harsher attacks on him) and also the legalization of Marijuana. But he opposes decriminalization of abortion, which tbh is the standard position from politicians because abortion is treated much more as a taboo in Brazil (and Latin America) in comparison with gay rights and weed.

Latin American countries like Uruguay and now Mexico were global pioneers in the weed topic. Brazil and Uruguay legalized gay marriage in 2013, earlier than lots of western countries that are seen as “progressive references” and Argentina did it even before, in 2010 (becoming one of the first 10 countries in the world to do so).

If you look at the abortion map though, Latin America lags way way behind. Argentina decriminalized it recently but that still was years later than everyone else in the world.

The weed topic is interesting because so far in the whole world it’s more limited only to North America (Canada, Mexico and specific parts of US), Uruguay, South Africa and Georgia (I think??). I wonder why that specific topic got popularized in North America first.

New CNT poll released for the 2022 presidential election:

Lula (PT) 41,3%
Bolsonaro (no party) 26,6%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 5,9%
Sérgio Moro (no party) 5,9%
João Doria (PSDB) 2,1%
Henrique Mandetta (DEM) 1,8%
Blank/nulls 8,6%
Undecided 7,8%

Runoff scenarios:
Lula 52,6% vs Bolsonaro 33,3%
Ciro Gomes 43,2% vs Bolsonaro 33,7%

Bolsonaro Government approval among Brazilians:
Disapprove 63% (+12)
Approve 34% (-10)

Variations indicated based on the February 2021 poll from the same institute.

They also asked what is the bigger priority for voters in the 2022 election:

Not reelect Bolsonaro 45,1%
Not elect Lula 27,7%
Neither of the options 21,2%

Antipetismo in shambles. You love to see it.

 https://noticias.uol.com.br/reportagens-especiais/ex-cunhada-implica-jair-bolsonaro/ (https://noticias.uol.com.br/reportagens-especiais/ex-cunhada-implica-jair-bolsonaro/)

New Bolsonaro scandal (seems like there’s one every day now). Ex-sister-in-law accusing him of forcing staffers to give him part of their salaries when he was a federal deputy.

Excluding blank/nulls and undecideds, that’s 49,4% of the valid votes in the 1st round for Lula.

For a candidate to win without a runoff, they need to get 50% or more of the valid votes. Which means there is the possibility of not even happening a runoff. Which would be a first for PT in presidential election, it’s only something PSDB has done it in the 90s. All 4 of their victories happened with a runoff.

1989: Runoff happens
Collor (PRN) 30,5%
Lula (PT) 17,2%
Brizola (PDT) 16,5%
Mário Covas (PSDB) 11,5%

1994: PSDB wins with no runoff
FHC (PSDB) 54,2%
Lula (PT) 27,1%

1998: PSDB wins with no runoff
FHC (PSDB) 53,1%
Lula (PT) 31,7%
Ciro Gomes (PPS) 11,0%

2002: Runoff happens
Lula (PT) 46,4%
José Serra (PSDB) 23,2%
Anthony Garotinho (PSB) 17,9%
Ciro Gomes (PPS) 12,0%

2006: Runoff happens
Lula (PT) 48,6%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) 41,6%

2010: Runoff happens
Dilma (PT) 46,9%
José Serra (PSDB) 32,6%
Marina Silva (PV) 19,3%

2014: Runoff happens
Dilma (PT) 41,6%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 33,5%
Marina Silva (PSB) 21,3%

2018: Runoff happens
Bolsonaro (PSL) 46,0%
Haddad (PT) 29,3%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 12,5%

CNT 2022 Projection (valid votes): Just barely a runoff happens
Lula (PT) 49,4%
Bolsonaro (no party) 31,8%

Listed only candidates that achieved to get 10%+ in the 1st round of the vote.

Arguably supporting Bolsonaro is more effective at antagonizing pro-LGBT policies than actively attacking them. It also carries the stench of hypocrisy with him.

Right, but I also don’t like the idea that all LGBT people necessarily MUST vote thinking about LGBT issues first above everything else. As if this was the only thing that defined them.

Someone might be gay but for example, absolutely hate PT economic policies. Who am I to tell them what has to be their priority? Eduardo Leite might dislike Bolsonaro for his homophobic stances but dislike PT even more for other policy disagreements. Economically, Eduardo Leite is closer to Bolsonaro/the right anyways, but more of a competent version based on what he did in his state.

However, it’s totally valid for people who have LGBT rights as a priority (regardless of who they are) to hold that as a reason for not supporting Leite more than the fact he’s gay. But it’s still one year for the elections and I don’t agree with the left that Leite came out of the closet with electoral purposes. I would imagine being a gay in the center-right actually can bring more negatives than positives, especially when you want to run for president?

That’s why my impression was that the left was anticipating an opposition in a moment that wasn’t appropriate, after he just came out. They even tried to oust the RN Governor (from PT) as a lesbian in order to have a narrative competition, but the fact is that even if she’s really a lesbian, she never came out in a public way, so Leite is the first assumed LGBT Governor from Brazil and that’s still an important landmark whether you like him or not.

That doesn’t mean you have to vote for him, much less like him. But it was the moment to congratulate him for the attitude and celebrate the social advance it represents, to have a governor gay (and not just a gay governor in the way Leite referred to himself in order to appeal to the straights).

Genial/Quaest 2022 presidential election poll:

1st round (spontaneous poll):

Lula (Workers Party - PT ) 21%
Jair Bolsonaro (no party)  18%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT) 1%
Others : 1%
Undecided: 57%

In the 2022 elections, would you prefer it to win:

Lula 41%
Bolsonaro 24%
Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula 31%

1st round (stimulated)

Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 28%
Ciro Gomes 10%
João Doria 7%
Blank/null: 3%
Don’t know/don’t answer: 8%

2nd round:

Lula 54% vs. Bolsonaro 33%

Ciro 44% vs. Bolsonaro 36%

Doria 38% vs. Bolsonaro 38%

Mandetta 36% vs. Bolsonaro 37%

Leite 33% vs. Bolsonaro 38%

Rodrigo Pacheco 31% vs. Bolsonaro 39%

Tasso 31% vs. Bolsonaro 40%

DataFolha new poll about opinions on Bolsonaro government:

General opinion about the Bolsonaro government?
Great/Good 24% (-)
Regular 24% (-6)
Bad/Awful 51% (+6)
Don’t Know 1% (-)

How do you usually trust the president declarations?
Always Trust 15%
Sometimes Trust 28%
Never Trust 55%
Don’t Know 1%

How competent the president is?
Competent 36%
Incompetent 58%
Don’t Know 5%

How honest the president is?
Honest 38%
Dishonest 52%
Don’t Know 10%

How intelligent the president is?
Very intelligent 39%
Not very intelligent 57%
Don’t Know 4%

How authentic the president is?
Sincere 39%
Fake 55%
Don’t Know 6%

How confident the president is?
Decided 41%
Undecided 57%
Don’t Know 3%

How Democratic the president is?
Democratic 28%
Authoritarian 66%
Don’t Know 6%

How prepared is the president to lead the country?
Prepared 34%
Unprepared 62%
Don’t Know 4%

Who do you think the president respects more?
Respects more the poor 17%
Respects more the rich 66%
Don’t Know 16%

What do you think about corruption in the Bolsonaro government?
Exists 70%
Doesn’t exist 23%
Don’t Know 7%

What is your expectation about corruption in the government?
It will grow worse 56%
It will diminish for better 13%
It will stay about the same 26%
Don’t Know 5%

Datafolha polls, president 2022

If Joao Doria runs
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 8%, Doria 5%, Mandetta 4%

If Eduardo Leite runs
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 9%, Leite 3%

Runoff
Lula 58%, Bolsonaro 31%

Bolsonaro isn’t in good physical shape, the stress is clearly having physical effects on his health. In his speeches today he couldn’t say one phrase without hiccuping, coughing or burping. Stomach is the part of the body that feels effects from stress the strongest, which is why gastritis is usually associated with high anxiety levels.

He is panicking.

It’s weird, but I do feel some sympathy for him. No matter how awful the person is, it doesn’t bring satisfaction to see anyone suffering. Hope he gets treatment but he needs to resign first in order to get rid from the source of the stress. There’s no fully going back but if he stays longer, the consequences could be worse for him.

I hope he does suffer the way he's making his people suffer.

Bolsonaro is not only a horrible person, he is very dumb. It is possible to be a horrible person and not be dumb.

It would be very easy to have a good image in the english speaking press, like Economist, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal and Forbes. In the group of the 3 biggest Latin American GDPs, Mexico and Argentina have left-wing governments. Only Brazil has a (very) right-wing government. This business media loves to find a "good example" in Latin American: a government which implements a neoliberal agenda. Besides, Mexico and Argentina are not doing well in the economy, they have not managed very well the pandemic. But Bolsonaro looses this opportunity. He is able to do everything worse, even when his competitors are not doing very well.

I think he just enjoys being a villain and feel like he’s part of a global “populist right” villain club.

Like, his nearly 30 year career as a parasite congressmen was all about making disgusting comments and antagonizing people to get media. He energetically feeds himself on that sh**t.

If he was forced into a more “presidential” behavior it probably wouldn’t be as fun being evil for him. The fun is in exhibiting it to everyone and making tons of people mad, so that he can feel more powerful or something.

Of the 3 big LatAm countries, he really was supposed to be the international darling of western media because of the neoliberal economic positions, since Mexico and Argentina are currently led by the left. And I do usually think that even though US current leaders are ideologically much closer to Lula than to Bolsonaro, the geopolitics of having a more neutral and multilateral Brazil is not very appealing to them in comparison with having US-submissive Trump bootlicker Bolsonaro. But what we see happening is the opposite, he’s by far the most hated of the three.

And yet what you see everywhere is him getting trashed to high heavens lmao. But ESPECIALLY on the West (US + Europe). The international brand constructed by Bolsonaro is locked and sealed because he openly antagonized and provoked international leaders and people in the same way he always antagonized and provoked the left here for 30 years.

The most I see of international praise for him is from delusional sectors from the Latin American right convinced that his strongman model is the solution to erasing the left in their countries (see: Fujimoristas in Peru, or angry anti-Peronist Argentinians). Someone needs to warn them that Bolsonaro is actually reviving the left with how hated he is.

If the right wants to be strong they need to unite on a party and a clear platform without the authoritarian fascist stuff. But it’s a long term and difficult job that they don’t have patience to invest in. The PT managed to be an extremely resilient party, getting 45% (!!!) in their absolute worst moment in history when everyone sounded to be against them (if you were PT defender in 2018 you could be spanked on the street). But it took almost 15 years of losses in order to gain penetration within marginalized sectors of society that are always ignored, before they could actually win the presidency.

The right is way more disorganized and less rational even though they’re more powerful imo. They sometimes unite under a random candidate from a “who??” party (PRN in 1989, PSL in 2018), who then is a complete failure partially because of lack of a strong party structure that gives them support both internally in congress and with bases outside. And then they are able to do almost nothing, besides not really lasting too long in power. Bolsonaro knows this is his fate and that’s why he wants a coup, it’s the only opportunity for him to save himself.

Like them or not (some of the more radical right-wingers now claim they’re too “moderate”) PSDB still represents the only successful project that the right managed to put into power. A good project isn’t one that you like more on paper, but the one that is viable and that gets to be done. And as I said before, never in the history of this country economic neoliberal policies advanced so much as they did in the 90s.

Things is, the right is often way more obsessed with their hate for the left (including their successes) than with forming their own project of a country and more importantly, creating a line of dialogue with society to discuss it.

Bolsonaro is in the hospital with stomach pains

🦀 time? (not holding my breath but…)

I say so. He's killed over half a million of his own citizens. I'm not saying I want him to die, but I certainly don't feel sympathy for him.

I see this just a populist media spectacle. He’s sick but will hype that up and use that to gain sympathy like he used it in 2018. The public pictures from him in the hospital are especially designed for that, what other public figures release their images in the hospital bed? lmao

He needs the victim narrative back from 2018 to counterbalance his popularity loss and deconstruction of image caused by the COVID Investigation commitee in congress.