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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: jaichind on January 05, 2019, 07:47:02 pm



Title: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2019, 07:47:02 pm
2019 LS elections due to take place April/May 2019.  AP, Odisha, J&K assembly to take place at the same time.  Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand assembly elections to take place in late 2019.  There is a chance that Maharashtra assembly elections might take place at the same time as LS elections but that is unlikely.

LS elections will be of course ruling NDA vs UPA plus a bunch of other regional parties in the fray in their respective states.  BJP led NDA has the edge but it is not clear that it can win a majority on its own but might need other parties to support it which means Modi might have to be out as PM.
AP will be most likely ruling TDP allied with INC to take on YSRCP and JS as a third force with BJP as a minor force.
Odisha will be ruling BJD vs BJP vs INC with INC most likely being marginalized.
J&K will be BJP vs INC in Hindu areas and INC ally NC vs PDP in Muslim areas
Maharashtra will be ruling BJP perhaps SHS as an ally vs INC-NCP
Haryana will be ruling BJP vs INC vs INLD-BSP vs INLD splinter JJP.  With INLD split down the middle it most likely be a two way battle between BJP and INC.
Jharkhand will be ruling BJP-AJSU vs JMM-INC-RJD with JVM most likely part of the JMM-INC alliance.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS;AP,Odisha,J&K,Maharashtra,Haryana,Jharkhand assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2019, 08:09:17 pm
It seems for LS elections SP and BSP reached a deal where out of the 80 seats they will split it 37-37, will not run in the 2 INC seats held by the Gandhis and leave 2 seats for RLD, 1 for NISHAD and the last seat for AD(S) or perhaps if SBSP were to defect from NDA over to the SP-BSP grand alliance.  This mostly leaves INC out of the Grand Alliance in UP
()

Most commentators feel that this will work to help BJP if INC is not part of the SP-BSP grand alliance.  I tend to think that this could work to hurt the BJP if INC were to run Upper Caste candidates in areas where INC is strong and will split the BJP Upper caste vote.

https://www.thequint.com/videos/news-videos/elections-2019-stock-market-portfolios-political-myths

seems to agree with me

Quote
allow me to argue that it makes tactical sense for the Congress not to have a Mahagathbandhan (MGB) in UP or WB or Odisha. Since the Congress’s core vote banks overlap with the BJP’s (example, Brahmins and Thakurs in UP), a strategically placed Congress candidate (who would not divide the Muslims or Dalits, but cut into Brahmin and Thakur votes) could actually damage the BJP. And thereby hand over the advantage to Akhilesh Yadav, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee or Naveen Patnaik!


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; AP, Odisha, J&K, Maharashtra,Haryana,Jharkhand assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 06, 2019, 10:04:48 am
India TV-CNX came out with a poll in Jan 2019 for LS elections

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/nda-may-fall-15-seats-short-of-majority-says-survey-119010600023_1.html

It has it at

              Seats           Vote Share
NDA      257(-24)          37.15%
UPA       146(+22)         29.92%
Others   140                  32.93%

If you do a breakdown you get

                          BJP   NDA      INC  UPA      Pro-NDA       Anti-NDA      Total
MP                      18                 11                                                       29
Chhattisgarh         5                   6                                                        11
Rajastahan          15                 10                                                        25
Punjab                        SAD:5     7                                      AAP:1         13
Haryana               8                   2                                                        10
Bihar                  13    JD(U)11   2  RJD:10                                           40
                                 LJP:3           RLSP:1                                
WB                     10                  2                                      AITC:26      42
                                                                                       Left:4
Odisha                 8                   0                BJD:13                             21    
Gujarat              24                   2                                                        26
Karnataka          15                   9  JD(S):4                                           28
AP                      0                   2   TDP:4     YSRCP:19                          25
Kerala                 1                   8  MUL:2                           Left:5          20
                                                   KEC(M):1                      Left Ind: 2
                                                   RSP:1
TN                      0   PMK:1       3  DMK:21   AIADMK:10     AMMK:4      39  
UP                    40   AD:1         2  RLD:2                           SP:20         80
                                                                                       BSP:15
Maharashtra      22   SHS:8       9  NCP:9                                              48    
Delhi                  5                   1                                       AAP:1           7
J&K                    2                   1  NC:2                             PDP:1            6
Northeast         17   MNF:1                                               AIUDF:2       25
                             SDF:1                                                Left:1
                             NPP:1
                             NDPP:1
UT                    4   AINRC:1    1                                                           6
Telengana         0                    0                   TRS:16        AIMIM:1       17                  
Jharkhand         7                   2  JMM:4                           JVM:1           14
Goa                  1                   1                                                           2
Uttarakhand      4                   1                                                           5
HP                    4                   0                                                           2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Total              223  34           83  61             58               84              543

Mistakes I see are
1) It seems they did not add up the seats correctly.  I think for WB they flipped the INC and Left Front seat count of 2 and 4 into 4 and 2.  UPA seat count should really be 144 and not 146.
2) In TN PMK is no longer in NDA but the report counts them as NDA
3) In UP the report counts RLD as a part of UPA but it is really a part of SP-BSP grand alliance
4) In Kerela, KEC(M) is really not back as a part of UPA but I agree most likely they will rejoin UPA

Thoughts I have are:
1) I think the poll overall might be overestimating Modi's impact on BJP strength in the Hindi North but I could be wrong.
2) I am confused how in  Karnataka  the same poll in Nov which had BJP vs INC vs JD(S) can came out with the same seat seat result now the poll has it as BJP vs INC-JD(S)
3) The Maharashtra poll assumes a BJP-SHS alliance which now seems somewhat less likely but the poll results should worry BJP if BJP-SHS could "only" collect 30 seats when the CW is that such an alliance should get at least 35 out of 48 seats.  One thing is for sure INC-NCP will be allies here.
4) I suspect the UP result will be worse than this if INC runs a bunch of Upper Caste candidates in areas of strength to split the BJP Upper Caste vote as SP-BSP consolidate their Dalit-Muslim core.
5) TN results does not make that much sense.  Usually TN tends to swing uniformly which often leads to one sided victories.  If AIADMK and AMMK could split the seats 10 and 4 respectively then the AIADMK base is most likely split which should mean DMK-INC sweeping the vast majority of the seats.
6) In Assam, what about BPF? Even if BPF does not win Kokrajhar there is no way BJP nor AIUDF would win it.  Unless this projection has the BPF candidate running on the BJP symbol?

But if these were the results then NDA would need to rope in AIADMK and YSRCP into the NDA to form a majority which means that Modi might not be PM.

The Nov 2018 poll had
                         BJP   NDA      INC  UPA      Pro-NDA       Anti-NDA      Total
MP                      20                   9                                                       29
Chhattisgarh         7                   4                                                        11
Rajastahan          12                 13                                                        25
Punjab                        SAD:4     8                                      AAP:1         13
Haryana               8                   1                                      INLD:1        10
Bihar                  15    JD(U):9    1  RJD:10                                           40
                                 LJP:3
                                 RLSP:1
WB                      8                   2                                      AITC:27      42
                                                                                       Left:5
Odisha                 5                                     BJD:16                             21    
Gujarat              26                   0                                                        26
Karnataka          15                   9                                      JD(S):4       28
AP                      1                   0                 YSRCP:16       TDP:8          25
Kerala                 1                   7  MUL:2                           Left:7          20
                                                   KEC:1                           Left Ind: 2
TN                      0                   3  DMK:17   AIADMK:14     AMMK:3       39
                                                  MDMK:1   PMK:1
UP                    55   AD:1         5                                      SP:9            80
                                                                                       BSP:9
Maharashtra      30   SHS:8       5  NCP:5                                              48    
Delhi                  7                    0                                                          7
J&K                    2                   1  NC:2                             PDP:1            6
Northeast         17   BPF:1                                                AIUDF:2       25
                              AGP:1
                             SDF:1
                             NPP:1
                             NDPP:1
                             UDF:1
UT                    4                    1  NCP:1                                               6
Telengana         1                    5                   TRS:9          TDP:1           17
                                                                                     AIMIM:1                    
Jharkhand         5   AJSU:1      2  JMM:5                                              14
                                                 JVM:1
Goa                  1                   1                                                           2
Uttarakhand      4                   1                                                           5
HP                    3                   1                                                           2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Total              247  34           79  45             56               82              543

So it is BJP 247 BJP allies 34 -> 281
           INC 79 INC allies 45 -> 124
           Pro-BJP others 56
           Anti-BJP Others 82


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 06, 2019, 02:56:35 pm
As elections get close there will be more and more articles in the media that will fit my standard defection news template.

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasing autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.

There is an example today where an ex-BJD MLA in Orissa has defected to INC.

https://odishasuntimes.com/odisha-politics-bjd-veteran-joins-congress-ahead-of-polls/

Quote
Congress veteran and legislature party leader Narasingha Mishra, former MP Bhakta Charan Das, AICC Secretary Shaik Mastan Vali, former PCC president Sarat Patnaik, senior party leaders Kishore Patel and Santosh Singh Saluja among others were present during the programme where massive crowd turned up.

The party reiterated its poll promise of waiving farm loan and increasing MSP of paddy besides pension to farmers and employment to youth in the state.

“The anti-farmer policies of BJP and BJD have destroyed the agri sector of Odisha. The Congress govt. in Odisha will ensure that our annadatas get their proper due,” Niranjan Patnaik said while addressing the huge gathering of farmers.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 07, 2019, 08:59:47 pm
In Assam AGP has left the BJP led NDA over the new citizenship bill.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/agp-breaks-alliance-with-bjp-over-citizenship-bill/articleshow/67420676.cms

AGP's agenda is to block all Bengali migrants from Bangladesh (Hindu or Muslims) into Assam and expelled those that have migrated into Assam where possible.  BJP's agenda is to block Muslims from immigrating into Assam.  BJP's new citizenship bill gives religious minorities of Bangladesh (read Hindus) a path to citizenship if they immigrate to Assam.  This is unacceptable to AGP who left the BJP alliance as a result. 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 08, 2019, 02:50:53 pm
https://www.dnaindia.com/delhi/report-dna-exclusive-aap-congress-reach-deal-to-support-yashwant-sinha-2705483

It seems in Delhi INC and AAP have agreed to form an alliance where each will contest 3 out of 7 seats and both will back BJP rebel and former BJP Minister of Finance in the Vajpayee cabinet Yashwant Sinha in the 7th seat.   Former CM Sheila Diksh**t will also take over again as head of Delhi.  This is ironic as back in 2012-2013 AAP was THE anti-INC party and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal ran in 2013 in Sheila Diksh**t's seat to take her on directly and defeated her as the INC was crushed in the 2013 Delhi assembly elections.

Overall the INC and AAP base are fairly commutable and as long as the past bitterness at the leadership level can be overcome AAP-INC should be able to pose a significant challenge to the BJP.  Until the AAP-INC alliance it was accepted that the BJP will win all 7 Delhi seats.  Now it looks neck-to-neck.

On the other hand this will help SAD-BJP in Punjab.  AAP is already a much reduced force in Punjab since the 2015-2017 peak.  Now with AAP forming an alliance with INC in Delhi the AAP brand in Punjab as an anti-INC party in Sikh areas will take a hit and the AAP anti-INC base in Punjab will drift to SAD in Sikh areas.

So while this alliance could cost BJP ~3 seats in Delhi relative to baseline it could also cost INC ~2 seats in Punjab relative to baseline although that loss will most likely be to SAD and not BJP.

What would be interesting is if this might mean an INC-AAP alliance in Haryana where AAP is an ascendant force unlike Punjab.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 08, 2019, 03:02:16 pm
https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/upper-castes-reservation-live-updates-modi-government-constitution-amendment-bill-lok-sabha-bjp-congress/1436840/

The Modi government has proposed a change in reservation law to add another 10% quota for lower income but upper caste members. 

Currently around 50% (could be as high as 60% depending on the state) of all educational and government job allocations are part of a quota.  Around 25% of such slots are resolved for Dalits and Tribals and another 25% are reserved for OBCs.  What Modi is proposing is that another 10% quota gets added to that for low income Upper Caste population.  The BJP concluded that its defeat in MP and Rajasthan assembly elections late 2018 was partly because the Upper Caste vote defected to INC as it is angered by BJP pandering to Dalits and OBCs.  So the BJP sought to do this as a way to get back the Upper Caste vote before the 2019 LS elections.

The opposition pretty much other than calling it a pre-election gimmik could not afford to vote against it.  Main problem here is this law, once passed, could be ruled illegal by the Supreme Court which had ruled that quotas based on economic criteria is not Constitutional as the Constitution  provides for reservation by community but not income.  Still I guess Modi will worry about this after the election.  In the meantime scoring some points with the Upper Castes is the order of the day for the BJP.

 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 10, 2019, 08:21:29 am
More alliance trouble for BJP.

In the Northeast key BJP ally NPP is under pressure to leave NDA over the new citizenship bill.  AGP already left NDA over it.  Main issue here is this new law will open the way for Bangladesh Hindus to migrate to the India Northeast with a path to citizenship.  Northeast regional parties like NPP and AGP were on the same page with the BJP to block Muslim migrants from Bangladesh to move in the the Northeast and in fact roll them back.  But BJP wants continued Hindu migration into the India Northeast which is bitterly opposed by the local parties that represents Ahom Hindus (AGP) and tribal Christians (NPP and others.)

In UP seeing that BJP could be in trouble nationally and in UP given the SP-BSP alliance, small allies like AD(S) and SBSP are upping the pressure for seats and more quotas for their OBC constituents or else they will quit.  Even these small parties figure that the overall political environment for the BJP now is a lot worse than it was in 2017 and 2014  and now is the time to get their pound of flesh.  Most likely BJP will have to accommodate them.  The BJP backup plan seems to be, in case AD(S) and/or SBSP leaves NDA is to lure RLD away from SP-BSP.  Jats tend to vote BJP during strong BJP years so the BJP-RLD alliance makes sense at the social level to consolidate Jats behind BJP.  Not sure RLD will bit though.

In Mahabharata it seems to be a game of chicken between BJP and SHS.   SHS is pretty much spitting venom at the Modi-Amit Shah combine on a daily basis and praising INC at every turn.  SHS also calls the BJP the Gujarat BJP (in reference to the Modi-Amit Shah Gujarat background) in order to show their support to the growing anti-Modi bloc in BJP.   For SHS it seems every political enemy of Modi-Shah is its friend in public.   It seems SHS's endgame is still to ally with BJP but on a seat split formula which is humiliating for the BJP and reassert the SHS as the senior partner in the alliance.  BJP Prez Amit Shah seems to be having none of this and is taking SHS head on saying that if SHS does not want to ally with BJP, then BJP will crush SHS in the LS elections and win 40+ seats on its own which only provokes more escalated vitriol from SHS.  SHS has made it clear that it support suspected anti-Modi cabinet member, ex-Prez of BJP and key member of BJP Maharashtra Nitin Gadkari for PM after the elections making it clear that SHS wants to reduce BJP MP seat count as much as possible so BJP has no choice but to form a broad coalition government where Modi will have to go.  It just seems the level of public vitriol between BJP and SHS could soon get to the point where neither side could back down from the game of chicken and the two cars will crash to the benefit of INC-NCP. 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 12, 2019, 09:51:45 am
In UP, SP and BSP formally announces alliance.  Out of 80 seats it will be split 38-38 between the two.  The alliance will not contest, as per tradition of SP, the 2 INC Gandhi seats.  Other 2 will be for smaller allies.  I assume by these numbers that SP and BSP will work out how to accommodate RLD later which will come from the two 38 38 quotas.

()

INC will go into a huddle to work out an UP strategy without being in the SP-BSP grand alliance.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 12, 2019, 10:41:12 am
New India TV-CNX Opinion Poll for LS which has it at

NDA   245
UPA    146
Other 152
()

It is basically the same poll it has from Dec but with different UP results since SP-BSP alliance is formalized.  The poll then adjusted NDA seat count from 41 to 29.
()

NDA at 245 will now for sure need AIADMK (10), YRSCP(19), and TRS(16) to get to a majority in which case it is very likely Modi will be out and I have strong reason to believe that AIADMK at 10 seats seems unlikely unless there can be a AIADMK-AMMK merger or at least alliance before the LS elections.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 16, 2019, 10:45:37 am
The Telegu speaking regions war between TDP and TRS is driving all sorts of alliance formation ahead of LS elections.  TDP and TRS are rivals due to the nature of the AP split of 2014 which created Telenaga.   BJP is fairly weak in both states which leads both parties to try to form opposition alliances that tries to isolate the other.

TDP is trying to form an opposition bloc that is friendly to INC and while not endorsing Rahul Gandhi as PM of the alliance for sure does not rule it out.  TDP's main rival in AP is YSRCP and so TDP needs an INC alliance to beat back YSRCP

TRS is trying to form a Fedreal front which is an opposition bloc that is both anti-BJP and anti-INC and is working to exclude INC from the opposition bloc. TRS's main rival in Telengana is INC and is allied with Muslim based AIMIM so there is a need of an anti-BJP element to it especially when BJP is fairly weak in Telangana anyway. 

If we go state by state and look at key regional parties we can sort of map out what each regional party is likely to do:

AP: YSRCP is for sure going to join up with TRS's Federal Front given that TDP is its main enemy.
     TDP is for sure part of the pro-UPA front since it is the party that is trying to push it.

Telengana: TRS is the leader of the Federal front
                 AIMIM is competing with INC for the Muslim vote across India so is with TRS

Assam: AGP just quit NDA.  As long as it does not go back and given it competes with Ahom votes with INC it is likely to join TRS's Federal Front
            AIUDF sees both INC and BJP as rivals so most likely align with Federal Front perhaps with AGP.

WB: AITC's main rival in WB will be BJP with INC as a minor rival and perhaps tactical ally.  More likely to join the pro-UPA front than the TRS's Federal front both TDP and TRS are heavily lobbying for AITC

UP: SP and BSP see BJP as the main rival and INC as a minor rival and perhaps tactical ally.  More likely to join the pro-UPA front than the TRS's Federal front both TDP and TRS are heavily lobbying for SP-BSP.  SP more likely lean pro-UPA while BSP which suspects that INC is out to poach her Dalit base most likely lean TRS's Federal Front

Bihar: JD(U)'s main rival is RJD so it is with BJP this time
          LJP always goes with the side that gives better deal which this time is BJP
          RJD sees JD(U) and BJP are main rivals and is allied with INC so clearly will be for the pro-UPA front
         RLSP and HAM see JD(U) as their main enemy and since JD(U) is with BJP is more likely to be for the pro-UPA front and alliance with INC

Karnataka: JD(S) is part of an alliance with INC since it needs INC support for its state government.  So in the past it JD(S) would be a prime candidate for the Federal Front since it traditionally see both BJP and INC as rivals this time around it will be part of the pro-UPA front.

TN: DMK has a long history of alliance with INC as a way to counter AIADMK and will be in the pro-UPA bloc
      AIADMK sees DMK as it main rival  so it will have to make a call if it should ally with BJP or join TRS's Federal front. Really comes down to SWOT analysis of BJP alliance
     MDMK wants to go with DMK this time so it will be part of pro-UPA bloc
     PMK,DMDK both were allies of BJP in the past and for now is disillusioned with BJP that for now they will not join up with BJP.  Both with try to see if they can join up with AIADMK or DMK and if not look into TRS's Federal front
     AIADMK splinter AMMK tends to be anti-BJP could either look for a reunification with AIADMK in which case there is no way a unified AIADMK would ally with BJP or look to join TRS's Federal front as AMMK does see DMK as a rival and not ally

Maharashtra: NCP is allied with INC and sees BJP as its main rival  so will go with pro-UPA front
                   SHS will have to make a call on alliance with BJP or perhaps aligning with the Federal Front.  Most likely will go with BJP alliance
                   MNS has taken an anti-BJP position and is trying to get into the INC-NCP alliance but will let be let in due to ideological reasons

Delhi:  AAP will have to make a call on if it wants to ally with INC or join Federal Front as it sees BJP as its main enemy

Punjab: SAD clearly is allied with BJP so this one is easy
            AAP here is both anti-SAD and anti-INC so is a prime candidate for Federal Front. But the Delhi AAP have different incentives (BJP is the main enemy) so this conflict will have to be worked out

Haryana: INLD sees BJP and INC as its main enemy and is allied to BSP.  Is a prime candidate for Federal Front

J&K: NC sees PDP and BJP as enemies and allied with INC so that part is easy. 
        PDP left its bizarre alliance with BJP but still sees NC-INC as rivals so is a candidate for Federal Front

Orissa: BJD see BJP and INC as rivals and is a good candidate for the Federal Front.

Chhattisgarh: INC splinter JCC which is allied with BSP sees both INC and BJP as rivals so most likely will be part of Federal Front

Jharkhand: JMM sees BJP as its main rival so will be allied with INC
                 JVM also sees BJP as its main rival so will most likely join INC as an ally but if seat talks break down might end up going to the Federal Front
                AJSU is in theory allied with BJP but it is not clear seats talks will end up well and AJSU might up aligning with the Federal Front


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 17, 2019, 08:20:35 pm
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ranchi/congress-announces-grand-alliance-in-jharkhand-for-lok-sabha-state-assembly-polls/articleshow/67577945.cms

In Jharkhand, INC announces that it has formed a Grand anti-BJP alliance with consist of INC, JMM, JVM, RJD, CPI. CPM, CPI(ML) and MCC.   The same alliance will contest assembly elections later in the year under the leadership of JMM which is led by former CM Hemat Soren.  It is a surprise INC could get the RJD to be in the same bloc as the Maoist CPI(ML) and MCC as the two forces have rival social bases (RJD have support in small landowners while CPI(ML) and MCC have support in landless laborers.)  Anyway the detail will be in the details as like Bihar getting to a workable seat sharing formula will be hard.  I think in the end CPI CPM CPI(ML) and MCC will break away since the larger parties will not be able to accommodate in the seat sharing.  Otherwise this is a coup for INC to get the old rivals JMM and JVM in the same bloc.

This development means that BJP will almost have to get AJSU to be in an alliance with BJP even if it has to give up a couple of extra seats to AJSU.
 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 18, 2019, 02:16:20 pm
For the Jharkhand Grand alliance it seems out of 14 LS seats INC will contest 6 seats, JMM 4, JVM 2, RLD 1, CPI 1.Not sure where that puts CPM or the Maoist CPI(ML) MCC although as I suspected they were not able to be accommodated.  On the whole I am surprised how little JVM got but I guess that reflects the revival of INC in Jharkhand which seems came at the expense of JVM.   


For the assembly JMM will clearly contest more seats as Hemat Soren will be projected as the CM candidate of the grand alliance.  This seems to be the repeat of the paradigm set in the INC-AIADMK alliance in TN in the 1980s and BJP-SHS allaince in Maharashtra in the 1990s and 2000s where the national party contest more LS seats but yields most seats in assembly elections to the regional party. 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 19, 2019, 06:42:36 pm
https://www.bloombergquint.com/bq-blue-exclusive/sp-bsp-alliance-why-mayawati-akhilesh-said-no-to-rahul-gandhi-and-erred-versus-modi#gs.mZyIN6E3

Makes the argument that UP SP-BSP alliance did not take INC into the the alliance because past history  shows that the INC Upper Caste base is not transferable to its allies.  Namely the 1996 BSP-INC alliance and the 2007 SP-INC alliance.
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It also shows that the social bases of the SP-BSP alliance is roughly equal to the BJP+ base.
()

It also makes an argument that SP-BSP is not completely right since it argues that the OBC and Dalit bases of INC is transferable. 

I mostly agree but I think the transferable nature of the the INC vote really depends on the communal nature of the INC candidate and its ally.  The best way for SP-BSP and INC to take down the BJP is for a tactical alliance where in areas of INC strength the INC runs a Upper Caste candidate to cut into the BJP vote.  In the few BJP-INC marginal seats the SP-BSP should run a Upper Caste candidate to cut into the BJP vote.   Also a SP-BSP-INC alliance might play in the BJP trap of making the election more "Presidential" where Modi's relative popularity and name recognition could help the BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 19, 2019, 07:07:10 pm
In Karnataka the last 2 weeks has been a non-stop crisis for the JD(S)-INC government.

The government vs BJP opposition seat breakdown was

Government
  JD(S)          38
  INC             80
  BSP              1
  KPJP             1
  pro-INC Ind  1
------------------------
                 220

Opposition
  BJP          104

But simmering beneath the surface there are 4 concurrent battles
1) JD(S) (which mostly represents Vokkaligas) vs INC rivalry as the CM is JD(S)'s Kumaraswamy and both JD(S) and INC MLAs are fighting for what they see as their fair share of resources and ministries
2) INC infighting between pro-Siddaramaiah (ex-CM and old JD(S) rebel and mostly lower caste) and anti-Siddaramaiah factions (most upper castes)
3) BJP vs INC struggle for the national narrative as the national party with momentum going into the 2019 LS elections
4) Internal BJP infighting between pro-Yeddyurappa (ex-CM who represents Lingayats) and anti-Yeddyurappa forces.

Due to JD(S)-INC battles as well as INC infighting some INC factions seems, starting a couple of weeks ago, to break away from INC.  Then the KPJP and pro-INC independent both broke away from the government which made the government-opposition balance  218-206.  Then 4 INC rebel MLAs disappeared and there seems to be talk that they might defect to BJP.  The BJP itself seems to be divided to push to overthrow the JD(S)-INC government.  BJP's Yeddyurappa is the mastermind of this most recent BJP attempt to take control of the government as this is his last chance to become CM while anti-Yeddyurappa BJP factions feel that doing so would only hurt BJP chances in the LS elections.

Main issue now is will more INC MLAs defect since 4 is not enough.  The Anti-defection law means that all such defectors will be expelled from the assembly and have to run for re-election.  So if the balance is 218-206 right now then the BJP has to get 12 MLAs to defect.  Some can be bribed with money.  Others can be bribed with giving them BJP nominations for LS elections coming up.  But all things equal this seems like a tall order.  Also INC-JD(S) can counterattack by trying to poaching BJP MLAs.

Both INC and BJP have been reduced to "Resort Politics" with to avoid their MLAs to be poached, all of them have been put in luxury resorts with strict control  over outside communications.    The cost of these hotel stays are over $400 a day for each MLA which is a large sum of money in India.  I guess it is worth given how much resources are stake. 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 19, 2019, 07:28:29 pm
WB CM and AITC leader organized a massive anti-BJP in Kolkata.  Pretty much all anti-BJP parties are with different degrees being allied with INC (from an INC ally to seeing BJP as a greater enemy than INC) represented

()

()

Parties represented are
INC
BSP (INC as local rival but BJP much greater rival in UP)
SP (INC as local rival but BJP much greater rival in UP)
AITC (INC as local rival but BJP is becoming a greater rival in WB)
JD(S) (INC as local rival but current ally against BJP in Karnataka)
NCP (INC ally in Maharastra to take on BJP)
TDP (INC as local rival but need INC alliance to take on its main rival YSRCP in AP)
AAP (INC as local rival but BJP much greater rival in Delhi)
DMK (INC ally to take on main rival AIADMK in TN)
RJD (INC ally in Bihar and Jharkhand to take on BJP)
LJD (INC ally in Bihar to take on JD(U))
NC (INC ally in J&K)
RLD (SP ally in UP)
JMM (INC ally in Jharkhand)
JVM (INC as local rival but currently ally to take on BJP in Jharkhand)
ZNP (rival of INC in Mizoram but sees BJP ally MNF as an even greater rival)

Parties which are on paper anti-BJP or non-BJP who did not attend are
BJD (Rival of BJP in Orissa but for now sees INC as just as big as a rival)
TRS (On paper anti-BJP but in Telanagna INC is its main rival)
YRSCP (On paper anti-BJP but in is the main rival of TDP in AP who is now pro-INC so YSRCP is anti-INC)
AIADMK (Not even anti-BJP but neutral.  But with its enemy DMK being an ally of INC it will be either a de jure or de facto ally of BJP)
INLD (ally of BSP an sees BJP as an enemy in Haryana but sees INC as just as big of an enemy)


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 20, 2019, 02:59:22 pm
Generally anti-BJP Deccan Herald did a state by state back-of-the-envelope of each state for the LS election

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/will-narendra-modi-come-back-713960.html

And concluded that if BJP did not get SHS to join it in an alliance, even if INC failed to form an alliance with TDP in AP and AAP in Delhi that the INC+ will edge out BJP+ ~190 to ~170
()

The analysis seems to assume the the Modi magic is completely gone and BJP has to fight based on basic alliance fundamentals and the ebb-and-flow of anti-incumbency.  One should see this as a floor of the BJP+ bloc and cap of the INC+ bloc. 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 20, 2019, 04:03:06 pm
The Wire points out despite Media painting the 2019 LS election as "Modi against ALL" it is in reality quite different on a state by state basis

https://thewire.in/politics/bjp-narendra-modi-2019-opposition-gathbandhan

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It has

Bihar: BJP-JD(U)-LJP vs RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI
UP: BJP-AD-SBSP vs SP-BSP-RLD vs INC
Maharashtra: BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP (The Wire views BJP-SHS as inevitable)
WB: AITC vs BJP vs Left Front vs INC (All vs All)
TN: DMK-INC-MDMK-MNM vs AIADMK vs AMMK vs BJP (Perhaps AIADMK-BJP might ally)
Kerala: INC-AIFB-KEC(M)-IMUL vs CPM-CPI vs BJP-BDJS
Northeast: BJP vs INC vs Local BJP ally (Here All vs All helps BJP and local regional allies as BJP appeals to Hindu and local BJP allies appeals to Christians and running separately hurts catch-all parties like INC the most)
MP,Rajasthan,Uttarakhand,HP,Gujarat,Chhattisgarh,Goa,Union territories: BJP vs INC
Pubjab: INC vs SAD-BJP vs AAP
Delhi: BJP vs AAP vs INC (most likely AAP-INC alliance will not take place)
Haryana: BJP vs INC vs INLD-BSP vs JJP (INLD splinter)
Odisha: BJD vs BJP vs INC
AP: TDP-INC vs YRSCP (backed by TRS-AIMIM) vs BJP
Telangana: TRS-AIMIM-YSRCP vs INC-TDP vs BJP 
Karnataka: INC-JD(S) vs BJP
Jharkhand: BJP-LJP vs INC-JMM-JVM-RJD-CPI vs AJSU (AJSU might ally with BJP)
J&K: BJP vs PDP vs INC-NC


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 20, 2019, 04:06:29 pm
Another example of my defection story template

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasing autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.


https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/impressed-with-rahul-gandhi-unhappy-with-bjp-leader-quits-party-1434281-2019-01-19

Quote
A former BJP parliamentarian announced his resignation from the party on Friday. Uday Singh, an ex-BJP MP who has represented Bihar's Purnea Lok Sabha constituency twice, alleged the party has surrendered before the discredited Janata Dal (United) headed by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

Quote
Although Singh did not reveal his future plans, he dropped plenty of hints suggesting he may join a Grand Alliance constituent.  Singh praised Congress president Rahul Gandhi for his growing popularity. He claimed that PM Modi has withdrawn himself from reality, even if he had good intentions.

Quote
Singh also claimed widespread resentment among the BJP cadre over the alleged undemocratic style of the party leadership.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) on January 20, 2019, 04:25:55 pm
The Wire points out despite Media painting the 2019 LS election as "Modi against ALL" it is in reality quite different on a state by state basis

https://thewire.in/politics/bjp-narendra-modi-2019-opposition-gathbandhan

()

It has

Bihar: BJP-JD(U)-LJP vs RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI
UP: BJP-AD-SBSP vs SP-BSP-RLD vs INC
Maharashtra: BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP (The Wire views BJP-SHS as inevitable)
WB: AITC vs BJP vs Left Front vs INC (All vs All)
TN: DMK-INC-MDMK-MNM vs AIADMK vs AMMK vs BJP (Perhaps AIADMK-BJP might ally)
Kerala: INC-AIFB-KEC(M)-IMUL vs CPM-CPI vs BJP-BDJS
Northeast: BJP vs INC vs Local BJP ally (Here All vs All helps BJP and local regional allies as BJP appeals to Hindu and local BJP allies appeals to Christians and running separately hurts catch-all parties like INC the most)
MP,Rajasthan,Uttarakhand,HP,Gujarat,Chhattisgarh,Goa,Union territories: BJP vs INC
Pubjab: INC vs SAD-BJP vs AAP
Delhi: BJP vs AAP vs INC (most likely AAP-INC alliance will not take place)
Haryana: BJP vs INC vs INLD-BSP vs JJP (INLD splinter)
Odisha: BJD vs BJP vs INC
AP: TDP-INC vs YRSCP (backed by TRS-AIMIM) vs BJP
Telangana: TRS-AIMIM-YSRCP vs INC-TDP vs BJP 
Karnataka: INC-JD(S) vs BJP
Jharkhand: BJP-LJP vs INC-JMM-JVM-RJD-CPI vs AJSU (AJSU might ally with BJP)
J&K: BJP vs PDP vs INC-NC

Wow, even though India is sort of a 2 party country (INC vs BJP) there aren't that many states where the election will be a straight INC vs BJP affair without anyone else


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 22, 2019, 09:11:13 pm
Some more bad news for the BJP on the alliance front.  In Jharkhand, BJP ally AJSU will most likely go its own way.  The BJP won 12 out of 14 seats here in 2014 so I doubt the BJP can accommodate AJSU anyway.  The INC-JMM-JVM-RJD-CPI alliances is also full and would not take on AJSU.  JD(U) is looking to expand in  Jharkhand again and could ally with AJSU but the JD(U) base last couple of years have mostly go over to a resurgent INC.

In WB, pro-Gorkhaland GJM which already broke ties with the BJP last year seems to have decided to ally with AITC which means a clear net loss for the BJP in the Darjeeling seat which it won in 2014 due to support from GJM. 
 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 22, 2019, 09:22:09 pm
Wow, even though India is sort of a 2 party country (INC vs BJP) there aren't that many states where the election will be a straight INC vs BJP affair without anyone else

I think over time INC has slowing became a non-tier one party in many key states one at a time.  The history of this process are

1967 Kerala - after the 1967 assembly elections it was clear that INC can only win with regional allies to take on Left front.  So while INC is a key play but it has to share power with allies (namely KEC(M) and MUL.)
1977 TN - after the 1977 assembly elections it was clear that INC can no longer win power on its own and has to be the junior partner of DMK or AIADMK
1991 UP - after the 1991 LS elections it was clear that INC can no longer win a majority on its own as its key vote bases has shifted to SP (Muslims), BSP (Dalits) and BJP (Upper Castes) and will become a second tier party
1991 Bihar - after the 1991 LS elections it was clear that INC can no longer win a majority on its own as its key vote bases has shifted to proto-RJD (Muslims) and BJP (Upper Castes) and will become a second tier party
1998 WB - after the 1998 LS elections it was clear that INC has lost its role as THE anti-Left Front party it is splinter AITC and will be a second tier party
1999 Maharashtra - after the 1999 assembly elections it is clear that INC can no longer win a majority on its own without allying with its splinter NCP.  INC will have to share power going forward 
2005 Jharkhand - after the 2005 assembly elections it is clear that INC can only win if it allies with a regional party (JMM or JVM).  It is relevant but has to share power
2014 AP - after the 2014 assembly elections it is clear that INC has lost its position as THE anti-TDP party to its splinter YSRCP and that it will be a second tier party
2015 Delhi - after the 2015 assembly elections it is clear that AAP has taken over as THE anti-BJP party and that INC will be a second tier party
2018 Tripura - after the 2018 assembly elections it is clear that BJP has taken over as THE anti-Left front party and INC will be a second tier party
2018 Nagaland - after the 2018 assembly elections it is clear that NPF splinter NDPP-BJP has taken over as THE anti-NPF party and that INC will be a second tier party
2019 Orissa - most likely after the 2019 Orissa assembly election INC might lose its position as THE anti-BJD party to BJP and become a second tier party in a worse case scenario. 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 23, 2019, 05:54:46 am
Priyanka Gandhi Vadra Appointed Congress General Secretary For Uttar Pradesh
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/priyanka-gandhi-vadra-appointed-congress-general-secretary-for-uttar-pradesh-east-live-updates-1981935

()

INC plays its trump card.  Rahul Gandhi's older sister as well as daughter of Sonia Gandhi enters active politics.  She was always seen as being the more popular of the Gandhi siblings but did not enter politics due to the views of her husbands family.   Given the rising popularity of Rahul Gandhi due to his victory in the late 2018 assembly elections I think impact of this is smaller than what the INC cadres might hope.  


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 23, 2019, 02:35:58 pm
Latest India Today-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation poll for UP after the announcement of SP-BSP alliance has bad news for BJP.

If it is BJP-AD vs SP-BSP-RLD vs INC it is
      
                  Seats   Vote share
BJP-AD         18            36%
SP-BSP-RLD  58           46%
INC                4           12%
()


And if INC joins the SP-BSP-RLD alliance BJP will be down to single digits

                       Seats    Vote share
BJP-AD                 5         36%
SP-BSP-INC-RLD  75        58%
()

I mostly do not buy the BJP-AD vs SP-BSP-INC-RLD result as a good part of the INC Upper Caste bast would drift to BJP so just adding the INC vote share to the SP-BSP-RLD vote share is not a valid way of projecting results.   Still for BJP-AD to poll 36% vs 43.3% in 2014 should be worrying for BJP.

Also for INC to poll at 12% if pretty positive for INC as that gives INC some room negotiate a tactical alliance with SP-BSP-RLD and gain some support in the dozen seats where INC base is relevant.  And the poll is before Priyanka Gandhi announced that she is entering politics.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: Famous Mortimer on January 23, 2019, 10:04:19 pm
How the hell is Rahul Gandhi still leader after getting beaten so badly last time?

Also, why wouldn't possible coalition partners for the BJP want Modi to remain Prime Minister? Who would they put in his place?


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: Old School Republican on January 23, 2019, 10:17:51 pm
How the hell is Rahul Gandhi still leader after getting beaten so badly last time?

Also, why wouldn't possible coalition partners for the BJP want Modi to remain Prime Minister? Who would they put in his place?

Because the INC is basically totally controlled by the Gandhi Family.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: Old School Republican on January 23, 2019, 10:20:22 pm
Do you think there would be a possibility for a new liberal party to form in India and become a force in politics say over the next 5-10 years.



Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 24, 2019, 09:51:28 am
How the hell is Rahul Gandhi still leader after getting beaten so badly last time?

Also, why wouldn't possible coalition partners for the BJP want Modi to remain Prime Minister? Who would they put in his place?

To be fair, Sonia Gandhi was Prez of INC until Dec 2017 and Rahul Gandhi took over only in then.  I agree that Rahul Gandhi became the face of the INC as early as 2014 and the track record was pretty poor.  Most of that was because the cycle of anti-incumbency was running against the INC in those elections.  That cycle mostly played itself out by end of 2017 when Rahul Gandhi took over (which should be seen as a feature.) 

The reason why INC have to go with the Gandhis is the INC is really a confederation of various local factions which would otherwise be at their throats, especially when the national INC could be captured by a subset of these factions which would cause consternation at those INC factions that were not part of the ruling bloc of factions.  The Gandhi clan is convenient for the INC since they have a) national name recognition and b) not that tied to any local INC faction and could be above the fray.  As a result the Gandhi clan becomes the INC lowest common denominator for all their local factions.

As for BJP and Modi, Modi, unlike  Vajpayee, tend to be more arbitrary in decision making and spends less time to get buy in on policy issues from various BJP factions and BJP allies.  While Modi fetches votes to get the BJP to a majority or near majority by itself the anti-Modi factions and BJP allies have to accept Modi as the PM.  If the BJP falls below majority by large enough margin then BJP allies and potential BJP allies along with anti-Modi factions will demand a more consensus making BJP PM.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 24, 2019, 10:18:38 am
Do you think there would be a possibility for a new liberal party to form in India and become a force in politics say over the next 5-10 years.


I really doubt it.  The main political issue for India at this stage is around how to create a national vision that the population can unite around to propel India into a true Great Power.  The INC vision is centered around Indian nationalism and the BJP vision is around Hindu nationalism.  Below that most political debate are around issues of sharing of scare educational and government resources  which more and more are on a communal basis.  The issue of quotas based on caste, community, economic status seems to be gaining more salience.  None of this seems will create the ground for the creation of an economic liberal party.  I had hoped Modi might be that but in the end such an agenda does not fetch votes.  Pushing Hindu nationalism and building Ram temples is what will fetch BJP votes.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 24, 2019, 05:21:58 pm
https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2019/01/24/congress-tdp-split-too-late-to-reverse-the-effect.html

It seems the INC-TDP alliance is off in both AP and Telangana.

I assume the reason is the lesson learned from the Telangana assembly election in late 2018.  The assumption was that in Telangana "math" counts for more then "chemistry".  That was my reading of the election history of Telangana and how INC and TDP read it and it ended up being totally wrong.  In Telangana the TDP was viewed as an enemy party that opposed the formation of Telangana in 2014 while INC was viewed as a party that, with TRS, shared the credit for creating Telangana.  But the INC-TDP alliance pushed the anti-TDP but potentially pro-INC vote toward TRS.

In AP which still viewed the creation of Telangana with anger,  both TDP and YSRCP are viewed as being anti-Telangana bifurcation and if the INC joined TDP alliance then the same problem will take place in reverse where the INC is viewed as the party that brought about Telangana state.  YSRCP has formed an alliance with TRS-AIMIM at the national level which is more about capturing the anti-BJP vote in AP in the upcoming election but risks losing the anti-Telangana vote.  TDP most likely wanted the anti-Telangana vote demanded enough concession from INC to make it worth their while that INC walked away.  From the INC point of view not having an alliance with TDP also hedges for the situation where YSRCP sweeps the state and INC and BJP need to battle to get YSRCP on its side.  A TDP-INC alliance for sure will drive YSRCP toward the BJP post-election.  Even now YSRCP is more likely to go with BJP post-election although not pre-election as the BJP brand is pretty poor in AP and to some extent Telangana as well.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 24, 2019, 09:16:06 pm
Full India Today Mood of the nation poll

()

Which has
              
                    Seat      Vote share
NDA(BJP)   237(202)     35%
UPA(INC)   166(97)       33%
Others       140             32%

This poll has been trending UPA for last few cycles
()

By region

North (this is mostly about SP-BSP surge in UP eating in BJP)
            Seats   Vote share
NDA        66         40%
UPA         20         23%
Others     65         37%

South (this is mostly about DMK-INC doing well in TN eating into AIADMK)
            Seats   Vote share
NDA        26         18%
UPA         78         43%
Others     39         30%

West (this assumes BJP-SHS alliance is still on in Maharashtra which is a big if)
            Seats   Vote share
NDA        76         46%
UPA         40         42%
Others       0         12%

East (BJP eats into AITC in WB and BJD in Orissa)
            Seats   Vote share
NDA        69         37%
UPA         28         25%
Others     45         38%

Overall this poll has BJP at 202 seats which it is barely enough for Modi perhaps to hang on as PM. Anything lower than 200 seats then for sure Modi has to go.  200-230 for BJP I think there is a chance that Modi has to go but it could go either way.

It seems that UP and if Modi can get BJP to outperform in BJP-INC states in Northern India will decide Modi's fate.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 24, 2019, 11:13:09 pm
C-voter came out with they monthly poll/projection for LS elections

Overall it has(diff on Dec poll)

           seats      vote share
NDA     233(-14)    37.6%(-0.1%)
UPA     167(-4)      32.2%(-0.6%
Others 143(+18)  
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This poll is actually more pro-NDA than the India today poll since this poll assumes NO BJP-SHS alliance in Maharastra whereas the India Today poll assumes that that alliance holds.

Breakdown by state are

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()
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Not much shift on a state by state basis versus the Dec 2018 projections.  Key states are
Uttarakhand
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MP
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Maharashtra
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Telangana
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Kerala
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Karnataka
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Jharkhand
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WB
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UP
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J&K
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Rajasthan
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Punjab
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TN
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Bihar
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HP
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Assam
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Orissa
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AP
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Haryana
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Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 26, 2019, 10:01:31 am
Same India Today Mood of the nation poll also polled who should be PM in 2019.

Modi                46
Rahul Gandhi    34
Banerjee            3   (WB AITC CM and psudo ally of INC)
Priyanka Gandhi 2
Arun Jaitley       2   (BJP Minister of Finance and de facto leader of anti-Modi faction in BJP)

Rahul Gandhi has closed the gap over the last couple of years
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Of course do recall that in 2004 BJP PM Vajpayee was way more popular than Sonia Gandhi but the cycle of anti-incumbency and superior alliance strategies by Sonia Gandhi/INC actually defeated the BJP in an upset.  Modi, of course will try to prevent this by making the election "Presidential" by making it a "Modi vs Everyone else" battle.  In that sense recent developments where INC and other anti-BJP parties (SP BSP TDP) might help defuse that Modi narrative at the risk of splitting the anti-BJP vote.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 26, 2019, 10:11:51 am
News Nation poll for Rajasthan LS elections
       
        Seats   Vote share
BJP    16           40% (47% if filter out do not know)
INC     9           35% (41% if filter out do not know)
()

The C-voter survey a few days ago had it at

        Seats   Vote share
BJP    18           49.4%
INC     7           44.0%
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So both polls are similar.  I generally do not buy it.  The trend has been the winner of the assembly election a year earlier then expands on their advantage in the assembly election so I would think the result should be something like INC 15 BJP 10.  Still I guess the entire BJP premise is that Modi is able to pull in an unusual size of marginal votes in Northern India.  I guess we will only know when the results come out.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 27, 2019, 10:04:28 pm
Thinking about the what Rahul Gandhi is up to when he played the Priyanka Gandhi card led me to think more big picture on what the goals of INC are.

The fact of the matter is that despite a good set of 2018 assembly election results the INC are still in an existential crisis.  The INC is structured in a way where it must be seen by its various factions as
a) led by a member of the Gandhi clan AND
b) is the natural party of governance 

The BJP landslide defeat of the INC followed by defeats of the INC in various assembly elections in the 2014-2017 period has called b) into question.  While the view in Southern India (Karntaka, AP, Kerela, TN and Telenagan) this year is that BJP might not and most likely will not come back to power, the view in Northern India is that the BJP led by Modi will come back to power.  If the BJP comes back with a strong Modi government, then various INC factions in Northern India will start to defect over to BJP en masse after the 2019.  As a result the INC goal this year is

a) Ensure that even if BJP emerges as the largest party and forms the government, it must be be seen as getting as setback and the government formed must appear weak AND
b) Ensure that the INC does well enough to be seen as the main alternative to BJP in 2024 or earlier when double anti-incumbency will drag down BJP and hand power back to INC

The fact of the matter is even as all the polls show the BJP now down to some 200s and even if we accept that they might even overestimate BJP in Northern India the BJP will have at worst 180 seats or not that much below that.  Just like projections now show INC at 100 seats.  Even if it does better it will not do THAT much better then that.  So the INC goal this year is to ensure that the BJP forms a weak government then to capture power themselves.  Rahul Gandhi also correctly figured that in 2019 he will not have earned spurs within INC to make a bid for power this year anyway.

In fact I think what is not talked about is that the fact that BJP's Nitin Gadkari who is the current BJP minister of transport now stands almost as much of a chance of being PM as Modi does.  I think the political talking heads seems to underestimate the resentment by various factions within BJP, RSS, and other NDA allies (or potential allies) toward Modi and that if BJP falls below 200 seats they will all come up to demand someone like Nitin Gadkari takes over.
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I would say the odds of who will be PM after the 2019 elections are

Modi                 40%
Nitin Gadkari     40%
Other BJP leader 5% (Arun Jaitley, Rajnath Singh, etc etc)
Rahul Gandhi      5%
Other INC          5%
Third Front PM    5% (Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Chandrababu Naidu etc etc)

The reality is that with BJP at 180 or slightly below that at worst there is a fairly small chance of a non-BJP PM.  It really comes down to who it is.  For INC to survive they need BJP to do poor enough that Modi is most likely out as PM.  In fact if I am right about these media polls as overestimating BJP support in Northern India  then Modi's chances of coming back as PM might be more like 30% not 40%.

For Rahul Gandhi working to stop the BJP juggernaut fufills one condition for INC to survive but then he must demonstrate that the INC is a viable as a natural party of governance.   For that he has to show that INC is at least a top tier two party in UP and not one that is languishing in the single digit support.  This is where Priyanka Gandhi comes in.  Priyanka Gandhi has strong appeals to Upper Caste voters (most of which have shifted over to BJP over the years in UP) as Rahul Gandhi needs to play her as a card now to try to pull in some Upper Caste votes from the BJP and push INC support to at least low double digits in UP.

If so then this strategy is fraught with risk.  Is is true that there are some Upper Caste resentment toward the BJP over the last few years as BJP CM Yogi Adityanath seems to focus more on the non-Yadav OBC base of BJP.  But Upper Caste voters tend to very tactical.  For them to vote INC and risk letting in SP (Upper Caste voters are fairly negative on SP) they have to be sure that INC is on its route to revival in a seat by seeing some of the old INC Dalit and Muslim base shirt over to INC.  So the risk here is for INC to get the Upper Caste vote from the BJP it first has to make a pitch for the Dalit and Muslim votes from SP-BSP and in the process risk throwing the race to the BJP by splitting the anti-BJP vote if the Upper Caste vote does not dutifully defect.  I think the INC will have to play this in UP seat by seat and do its homework on the relative strength of INC vs SP-BSP to see if it worth its while to make a true bid to win by clawing Dalit-Muslim votes from SP-BSP and then deploying  Priyanka Gandhi  to fetch the Upper caste vote from the BJP. Where it cannot do this the INC might be better off running a second tier Upper Caste kamikaze candidate whose only job is to pick up a few small percentage of the vote, mostly from the BJP Upper Caste bloc but it will not be in large numbers and help the SP-BSP in a close race.   If the INC can try to be viable in about a dozen seats and then tactically help SP-BSP then this plan could work.   It is just high risk but I guess Rahul Gandhi figures he has no choice since not going for this optimal result risk the INC falling apart post 2019.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 27, 2019, 10:28:34 pm
A picture is worth a thousand words

I found this picture at the SP-BSP press conference a few days ago announcing formally the SP-BSP alliance quite interesting
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First on both sides there are larger than life pictures of the current leaders of SP(Akhilesh Yadav) and BSP(Mayawati).  It is sort of comical that at a press conference with both these two leaders you still need larger than life pictures of both of them in the same room.  What is also interesting are the picture at the Far Top Left and Far Top Right of the room.  On the BSP side is Dalit icon Ambedkar who really founded the pro-Dalit RPI and not BSP but BSP claims his legacy. On the SP side is old Socialist icon Charan Singh who founded BLD and is the mother party of SP.  Akhilesh Yadav's father and founder of SP Mulayam Singh Yadav was a key sidekick of Charan Singh.

What is important here is that it is Charan Singh that is shown and NOT SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav who has been overthrown by Akhilesh Yadav in 2017 and has been kicked upstairs by his soon.  Of course Mulayam Singh Yadav has came out opposing the SP-BSP alliance but does not seems to any political strength to do anything about it. 

In the same vein BSP founder Kanshi Ram who is Mayawati's mentor is nowhere to be seen.  Part of the reason is that Mayawati has most purged the BSP of Kanshi Ram supporters since Kanshi Ram was kicked upstairs by Mayawati in the late 1990s before passing away.

This picture shows the that how both leaders want to monopolize current and recent past history of their parties and would only acknowledge founding leaders who very distant and could not be a threat to their power within their parties. 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: Lok on January 29, 2019, 07:02:18 am
idk if there is a separate thread for the general election right now, but I wanted to share the first poll in a very, very long time that the INC is AHEAD in

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Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 29, 2019, 08:51:45 am
idk if there is a separate thread for the general election right now, but I wanted to share the first poll in a very, very long time that the INC is AHEAD in

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Yeah, I posted that a few days ago
Generally anti-BJP Deccan Herald did a state by state back-of-the-envelope of each state for the LS election

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/will-narendra-modi-come-back-713960.html

And concluded that if BJP did not get SHS to join it in an alliance, even if INC failed to form an alliance with TDP in AP and AAP in Delhi that the INC+ will edge out BJP+ ~190 to ~170
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The analysis seems to assume the the Modi magic is completely gone and BJP has to fight based on basic alliance fundamentals and the ebb-and-flow of anti-incumbency.  One should see this as a floor of the BJP+ bloc and cap of the INC+ bloc. 

It is really not a poll but a survey where Deccan Herald asks political correspondents in each state to give their assessment.  In many ways I am sympathetic to their views, especially in Northern India where poll seems to overestimate BJP, in my view, given the historical cycle of incumbency and anti-incumbency as well as recent assembly election results.  On the flip side, the polls are what they are and a lot of times when the only argument for something is "It cannot be" the answer is often: "It is."   

Anyway the key point here is that this is really not a poll but a projection based on ground reports.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 29, 2019, 09:01:13 am
An example of how UP INC is trying to cash in on Priyanka Gandhi's Upper Caste appeal.  These posters are coming up in a good part UP where Upper Castes are more numerous.

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Note the comparison of Priyanka Gandhi to her grandmother Indira Gandhi and that her picture is more prominent than INC leader and her brother Rahul Gandhi.  And of course there is the religious appeal with Hindu deity mixed in as well.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 30, 2019, 06:58:35 pm
George Fernandes has died.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2019, 10:21:28 pm
Times Now-VMR poll has it at NDA around 20 seats short of majority

           Seats    Vote share
NDA     252          38.7%
UPA      146          32.6%
Others  145          28.7%

With pro-NDA parties like YSRCP at 23 seats, TRS at 10 seats, and AIADMK at 4 seats this sort of result should give an NDA government.  And with BJP at 215 seats and INC at 96 seats BJP does just well enough for Modi to retain the PM position.
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I think what should worry Modi about this poll is that even after taking into account of a BJP-SHS alliance and a Modi wave in Northern India NDA is still short of majority by 20 some seats and will need the help of the likes of YSRCP and TRS.

Key state results are

Maharashtra
           Seats    Vote share
NDA      43         53.5%
UPA        5         40.0%

Which is mostly a repeat of 2014.  I find this hard to believe with the war of words between BJP and SHS currently and likely anti-incumbency.  At this it is not certain that BJP and SHS will form an alliance but most likely they will or else they will hang seperately


Gujarat
           Seats    Vote share
NDA      24         52.1%      
UPA        2          39.5%      

Again, even if we factor in the Modi favorite son factor this seems to overestimate  BJP.  I think the BJP vote share seems right but the INC vote share should be in the mid 40s.


Bihar
          Seats    
NDA     25     (cannot find vote share)
UPA     15

Seems about right.  It might end up being a bit better than this for NDA.


Jharkhand
           Seats    Vote share
NDA       6          38.0%      
UPA       8           47.3%      

Seems about right in terms of seat count. UPA vote share seems too high.  Still this confirms that INC-JMM-JVM-RJD is a powerful combination.


Orissa
           Seats    Vote share
NDA     40,7%      13
UPA      17.4%       0
BJD      36.3%       8

INC vote share seems about right.  Surprised at how high BJP is but it is totally possible that anti-incumbency has caught up with it.


WB
           Seats    Vote share
NDA        9         29.5%      
UPA        1           9.5%      
AITC     32          37.9%    
Left        0          20.0%      

Seems about right.  If anything I think the Left front vote share might be too high and if so the BJP seat share might be even higher.  This state will eventually become a bipolar battle between AITC vs BJP.


Assam
            Seats  (cannot find vote share)
NDA         8  
UPA          3
AIUDF      2
AGP         0
OTH         1 (I assume it will be the independent from Kokrajhar)

Looks mostly right if the Ahom vote is split between AGP and INC and the Muslim vote is split between INC and AIUDF as the BJP sweeps the non-Ahom (especially Bengali) Hindu votes given the BJP push for the new citizenship law.  Of course if the anti-BJP vote consolidate behind INC then it will be a lot closer.


Kerala

           Seats    Vote share
NDA       1            22.0%      
UPA      16            38.9%    
Left        3            26.0%      

Wow, the NDA vote share is a shock.   This most likely have to do with the  Sabarimala  case where the Left front government push for the Supreme Court to rule that the  Sabarimala  temple could not exclude women has  triggered a pro-Hindu wave to protect its traditions and that seems to have hit the Left Front and gained votes for NDA but produced seats for UPA.


AP
           Seats    Vote share
NDA       0             4.8%      
UPA        0            2.5%      
YSRCP   23          49.5%    
TDP        2           36.0%    

It is clear that YSRCP will make large gains and will win and most likely by a large margin.  Not sure it will be this large but totally possible.


Telengana
          Seats    Vote share
NDA        1         17.4%
UPA         5         33.0%
TRS       10         41.2%
AIMIM     1

Seems to make sense.  I suspect TRS might do a bit better than this but perhaps in an national election INC and BJP will do relatively better.


Karnataka
             Seats   Vote share
NDA        14         46.1%
UPA         14         46.8%
BSP          0           2.2%

It seems to me INC-JD(S) should do better than this but it could be their votes do not transfer well leading to a tie with BJP.  Also I think BSP might run in the INC-JD(S) alliance.


TN
           Seats    Vote share
NDA        0               2.3%    
UPA       35             50.4%      
AIADMK   4             33.5%

Seat breakdown seems to make sense.  I think DMK-INC-MDMK and AIADMK vote share are too high as AMMK PMK and DMDK will run separately and get a good bloc of votes.


UP
           Seats    Vote share
NDA       27            38.9%    
UPA         2             12.5%      
SP-BSP   51            40.3%    

Looks generally right assuming SP-BSP can transfer their vote bases to each other and have some tactical alliances with INC.


MP
           Seats    Vote share
NDA       23            45.1%    
UPA         6            39.5%      
BSP         0               3.1%  

Well, assuming a Modi wave hits Northern India I guess this will be the results.


Rajasthan
           Seats    Vote share
NDA       18            47.6%    
UPA         7            45.4%  

I guess these results make sense at least in terms of vote share but the vote share to seat share translation does not make sense.  Also sort of like MP this assumes there is a Modi wave in Northern India.


Chhattisgarh
           Seats    Vote share
NDA        5            45.6%    
UPA         6            48.1%
BSP         0             4.0%

I guess just like the others these results make sense if there is a Modi wave in Northern India.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 31, 2019, 08:31:15 am

What I remember most about George Fernandes was the events of 1979.  He was instrumental in breaking up JNP by insisting that all JNP party members cannot have dual membership in another organization.  That demand was pretty much looking to drive ex-BJS members (proto-BJP) out of JNP.  Eventually that proposal was turned down but i created a clear break between JNP members with Socialist background and those of BJS background. 

As the JNP government fell in 1979 as the result of the JNP(S) split George Fernandes gave a passionate and effective defense of the JNP government in response to a No Confidence motion moved by the INC (the non-Indira Gandhi faction as the Indira Gandhi's INC was called INC(I)).  But right after the speech George Fernandes along with the JNP members of Socialist background decided to split from JNP creating JNP(S) and withdraw support from the JNP government.

Years later it was the same George Fernandes that along with Nitish Kumar formed SAP in 1994 splitting from JD and then eventually formed the basis of JD(U) and entered into an alliance with BJP.  By this time George Fernandes had shifted Right on all sorts of issues anyway but it is ironic that the most anti-BJS element in 1979 JNP then ended up being a key ally of BJP.

I actually meet George Fernandes's son years ago.  It seems his son was and I assume is still an investment banker in NYC.  I meet him in a business meeting around ten years ago.  He was around the same age I am and clearly had a sharp mind and was clearly a rising superstar at his top tier investment bank.   I did not know his background at that time and only learned of it on a fluke years later.  I can tell he was a pretty cutthroat type of guy and you had to be to get to where he was at that age.  It is just ironic that a youth labor socialist activist George Fernandes would have a son that moved into a top investment banking position in the capital of capitalism.   


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: bigic on January 31, 2019, 10:53:08 am
An example of how UP INC is trying to cash in on Priyanka Gandhi's Upper Caste appeal.  These posters are coming up in a good part UP where Upper Castes are more numerous.

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Note the comparison of Priyanka Gandhi to her grandmother Indira Gandhi and that her picture is more prominent than INC leader and her brother Rahul Gandhi.  And of course there is the religious appeal with Hindu deity mixed in as well.

I guess they didn't spend a lot of money on graphic design...


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on January 31, 2019, 11:24:34 am
I guess they didn't spend a lot of money on graphic design...

What they have is pretty much the standard as far as Indian political posters are concerned. 

Here is a BJP one
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Funny ones I have seen in the past are

A AIADMK poster Photoshoped to show world leader praising AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha (who passed away a couple of years ago)
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Sonia Gandhi as a Hindu goddess (I think Durga goddess of war)
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Hindu nationalist Hindu Sena was smart enough to get on the Trump bandwagon in Summer of 2016 when it did not seem he would win.
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Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 03, 2019, 10:18:09 pm
AIADMK to seal poll pact with BJP, may contest in 24 Lok Sabha seats

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/fates-intertwined-aiadmk-bjp-are-partners-without-choice/articleshow/67823575.cms

Rumored seat sharing would be something like

AIADMK     25
BJP             8
PMK           3 or 4
DMDK         3
PT               1
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Not clear if PMK or DMDK will actually join this alliance but they might have to in order to stop the DMK-INC-MDMK juggernaut.  Of course if AMMK runs separately and  splits the AIADMK vote this alliance will still be defeated by the DMK lead bloc.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: urutzizu on February 05, 2019, 06:01:13 am
Likely going to be the Kiss of Death for the AIADMK. I dont think there is anywhere where Modis "Hindi-Hindu-Hindustan" is more reviled than in Tamil Nadu.
Not that the BJP brand is necessarily a death blow (see Vajpayee in 1999) in Tamil Nadu, but Modis rabid Hindu Nationalism and Centralism is.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 05, 2019, 08:39:10 am
Likely going to be the Kiss of Death for the AIADMK. I dont think there is anywhere where Modis "Hindi-Hindu-Hindustan" is more reviled than in Tamil Nadu.
Not that the BJP brand is necessarily a death blow (see Vajpayee in 1999) in Tamil Nadu, but Modis rabid Hindu Nationalism and Centralism is.

The BJP brand was never that great in TN given its image as a Hindi party.  BJP's fortunes in TN tends to be linked to the DMK-AIADMK cycle.  When the BJP is allied with the rising tide of its ally (be it AIADMK or DMK) it does well (1999) when it is not then it does poorly (2004.)  Note that Vajpayee 2004 did not stop a wipe-out in TN but that had not much to do with Vajpayee  but BJP allying itself with AIADMK when AIADMK alienated all political players in TN and was facing anti-incumbency.

I think AIADMK prefers not to be allied with BJP given the poor brand of BJP in TN.   But it seems that AIADMK feels it needs the protection of Modi/BJP on the assumption that BJP will return to power after the 2019 election especially when many key AIADMK politicians are under investigation for corruption.   AIADMK's plan is to run separately from BJP but support BJP after the 2019  LS elections.  It seems BJP a) needs more seats and b)wants to reverse the national narrative of BJP losing allies by getting a AIADMK-BJP alliance in the headlines.

A lot will depend on how AIADMK reads the dynamic of AMMK, a AIADMK-BJP alliance will push AMMK to make a more anti-BJP stance which could end up splitting the anti-BJP vote with DMK-INC.  Of course the inverse risk is that in districts where BJP will be given seats it is a great chance for AMMK to just scoop up the AIADMK organisation.  AIADMK's main goal seems to be to somehow prevent the AMMK from being seen as an alternative to AIADMK to the Jayalalitha legacy since winning 2019 LS election is pretty much out of the question.  It will be a DMK-INC sweep, the only question is how large.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 05, 2019, 11:37:55 am
It seems in Bihar, unlike UP, the INC revival is pretty real.  After the INC won 3 assembly elections in Northern India back in late 2018, a good number of political "free agents" seems to migrating toward joining INC.  This only adds to the problems of seat sharing in the RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP-CPI alliance.  This is so for two reasons
a) A good number of prominent politicians joining INC would both increase INC's bargaining power as well as INC demands since INC will have to accommodate these various kin pings that want to join INC.
b) Most of these "free agents" are Upper Caste BJP or JD(U) rebels as well as RJD rebels.  Both types are a problem for RJD.  The entire RJD strategy now is a Dalit-Yadav-Muslim consolidation and to paint the BJP-JD(U)-LJP alliance as a front for Upper Caste rule.  INC having a large number of Upper Caste leaders and candidates throws a wrench into that narrative.  Of course INC harboring  RJD rebels  is a problem for RJD.

If as a result INC-RJD talks break down and JD(U) sense that BJP might not do well in 2019 it could go from: BJP-JD(U)-LJP vs RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP-CPI to a massive U-turn for both INC and JD(U)  BJD-LJP vs RJD-RLSP-HAM-VIP-CPI-BSP vs JD(U)-INC.  In many ways this will be a lot worse for BJP since RJD-RLSP-HAM-VIP-CPI-BSP will then focus on  Dalit-Yadav-Muslim while JD(U)-INC will target Upper Caste votes that BJP was counting on.  This is unlikely but still possible.  Nitish Kumar of JD(U) has shown to be very opportunistic and if he sees BJP running into trouble in 2019 LS elections could jump ship and back stab BJP just like he back stabbed  RJD back in 2017.
 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: Old School Republican on February 05, 2019, 12:30:03 pm
If the BJP loses in 2019 , Modi will have blown a historic opportunity and will be handing India off to a leader who would make Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau look competent and smart .

I wish Modi went down the Reagan/Thatcher path instead of the more populist right wing path . Now is Modi still better than Rahul , yes and it’s not even close but even if he wins he may have blown a historic opportunity.



Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 05, 2019, 01:43:07 pm
If the BJP loses in 2019 , Modi will have blown a historic opportunity and will be handing India off to a leader who would make Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau look competent and smart .

I wish Modi went down the Reagan/Thatcher path instead of the more populist right wing path . Now is Modi still better than Rahul , yes and it’s not even close but even if he wins he may have blown a historic opportunity.


Speaking of populist schemes this seems to be the timeline of the BJP-INC escalation of populist schemes
1) In 2017 UP assembly election BJP wins landslide after promising farmer loan waver.  INC comes to power in Punjab in the same election based on promise for massive power subsides (in some cases free) for farmers
2) in 2018 assembly elections INC promises farmer loan waver for MP Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh assembly elections which results in INC victory  in all 3
3) Fearful that the BJP will come up with a bunch of populist schemes in the 2019 interim budget, Rahul Gandhi announces a "basic minimum income" if INC is voted to power
4) BJP came out with  interim budget with all sorts of tax cuts (mostly directed at middle class) and direct cash payments for farmers.  Of course this is on top of the BJP scheme of extra 10% quota for government and educational slots for Upper caste lower income population

So basically this election will just be a competition of various "Free Free Free !!" promises.  Frankly there are no plans to grow the manufacturing sector which is the true solution to farmer distress by increasing the amount of land farmed per farmer via urban migration.

I always suspected this is where we will end up with Modi even back in 2014.  He was a good administrator in Gujarat but most neoliberal schemes he kept on talking about were mostly talk.    I would totally back the politics that Modi talks about but I know what his actions really are.

Now there is a new scandal where the Modi regime might be holding back unemployment numbers on purpose since they show record high unemployment.  I think demonetization of 2016-2017 is the real original sin of the Modi government.  Demonetization did not work as BJP claimed.  It did not get rid of black money, it did not move India to a cashless economy, and I doubt it really increased the size of the formal sector.  But it did destroy a good part of the informal sector and shifted resources from small informal enterprises to large formal enterprises.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 07, 2019, 09:23:28 am
Just to be clear the chances of BJP "losing" this election is fairly remote.  There is a very low chance of NDA winning a majority on its own (especially if SHS does not ally with BJP) and there is a very low chance of the INC doing well enough that a government based on INC is formed.  At this stage the choices before us are a BJP government led by Modi (BJP needs a few allies for majority) or a BJP government led by Nitin Gadkari (BJP leeds a lot of allies for a majority.)


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 07, 2019, 09:30:23 am
It seems the new Citizenship bill is blowing up in BJP's face.  What was a plan to grant Indian citizenship to non-Muslims from various part of Colonial India (Pakistan Sri Lanka Afghanistan Bangladesh)  in order to rope in Bengali Hindu votes as well as turn it into a Everyone vs Muslim battle has been turned into a Northeast native population (Ahom Hindus, Bodos and other tribals) vs BJP battle.  Several BJP allies or psudo allies like JD(I) and SHS have came out against it while BJP is facing mass rebellion in the Northeast (AGP left NDA, NPP might follow suit and several BJP units in the Northeast are threatening to dissolve itself.)

The BJP in Assam in order to try to regain some support came out with

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/assam-budget-2019-20-himanta-biswa-sarma-1-tola-gold-budgetary-control-1-tola-in-gram-assam-finance-department-govt-www-assam-gov-in-assam-budget/361219

which will give around $600 worth of gold to every bride, student subsidies, and provide more rice subsidies plus a bunch of other free goodies.  The funniest one is the free gold for brides.  This might trigger a bunch of fake marriages to cash in on this. You might even find the same women being married several times in a year.   


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 08, 2019, 04:58:12 am
Why are Shiv Sena opposing? Why don't they want more Hindus?


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2019, 11:44:48 am
Why are Shiv Sena opposing? Why don't they want more Hindus?

Because SHS wants to oppose anything that the BJP is for.  SHS evens goes to praise INC and Rahul Gandhi when they defeated BJP in the Dec assembly elections.  What the SHS is up to is a "poison pill" type negotiations strategy.  They want to paint themselves into a corner on purpose attacking BJP at every turn so if the SHS DOES NOT get very generous terms from the BJP for an alliance then it will lose so much credibility and its cadres so demoralized that the alliance is not even worth having.  The more difficult the BJP situation get and more SHS will peruse this strategy to extra the most pound of flesh from the BJP with the perpetration for a Kamikaze strategy of running separately and throwing the election in Maharashtra to INC-NCP.  What is stake here is who is the senior partner of the Pro-Hindu nationalist alliance in Maharashtra as far as the SHS is concerned.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2019, 11:51:16 am
https://www.dailyo.in/politics/how-prashant-kishor-s-role-will-be-important-for-the-shiv-sena/story/1/29354.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/prashant-kishore-to-shiv-sena-remain-with-bjp-post-poll-nitish-kumar-pm-eligible/articleshow/67877406.cms

Are  interesting.  It seems JD(U) is trying to push a "Front within a Front" strategy.  JD(U) sent a key emissary  Prashant Kishor (who worked for BJP in 2014 then for INC and JD(U) in 2015-2017 as an campaign strategist  before joining JD(U)) to meet with SHS.   What he conveyed was interesting.  It was

a) SHS should go into an alliance with BJP on a 50/50 seat share
b) JD(U) is working to help the election campaigns of YSRCP who is a potential post election ally of BJP
c) JD(U) sees YSRCP, TRS and BJD supporting a BJP  government after the election
b) And the big bomb: If BJP does poorly then JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar can step in and become a PM with support from other parties.

It seems that the JD(U) is planning on and even hoping for a poor performance for BJP which knocks Modi out.  Then Nitish Kuamr can step in to become PM.  This might explain why JD(U) is against the new Citizenship bill.  JD(U) wants to expand in the Northeast and taking this position could allow JD(U) to recruit BJP allies (or former allies) like NPP and AGP into its "Front within a Front"

At the minimum JD(U) aspires to lead all non-BJP parties in NDA so they can lead a "bloc" negotiation BJP post election for their fair share of the spoils of power.    


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 09, 2019, 10:17:04 am
Trying to play both sides of the issue it seems in MP there are now INC posters that claim that if voted to power Rahul Gandhi will build the Ram Mandir (Temple) in Ayodhya which has been THE BJP issue since 1990.
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Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: parochial boy on February 09, 2019, 04:55:05 pm
OK, I'm a total novice as far as Indian politics is concerned, but my usual strategy of looking through old threads hasn't really answered these questions so -

Why exactly is the south so much more left-wing/progressive than the North(-west/Ganges valley)? like, I know that there is this Modi/BJP Hindi-Hindustan thing, which would be offputting to non-hindi speakers in the south, but Kerala in particular has been a stronghold of the communists for much longer for that. I mean, I was there earlier this year, and it does seem to be much more relaxed as concerns caste structure, relgion, gender relations and all that. For all that they had these riots over the hindu temple, the mosque near where I was staying had a female muezzin, which is pretty rare really, compared to the rest of the Islamic world - why would this be?


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 10, 2019, 07:49:38 am
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/days-after-jind-bypoll-results-bsp-calls-off-alliance-with-inld-in-haryana/story-ylWcLgn2wrm8Ac0dudUtwO.html

In Haryana the BSP has called off its alliance with INLD after the Jind assembly by-election a few days ago showed that it was rapidly losing its Jat core base support to its splinter JJP.  BSP instead has allied with BJP Jat based splinter LSP.  

In the Jind by-election the INLD MLA passed away and the BJP was quick to recruit the deceased MLA's son to run as the BJP candidate to cash in on the sympathy factor.  The BJP won the by-election was par for the course given the sympathy factor plus the fact that incumbent parties tends over-perform in by-elections.

In 2014 the Jind assembly election result was

INLD         26.1%
BJP           24.2%
INC           12.6%
BSP           10.9%
HJC           10.1% (INC Jat splinter)
BJP rebel     9.3% (Jat based)
HJC rebel    3.5%

By the time the by-election took place HJC has merged back into INC while BJP suffered a Jat based splinter LSP while the Jat based INLD suffered a vertical split in the ruling family leading to JJP being formed and led by one the scion of the founding family of INLD.  With BJP recruiting the deceased INLD MLA's son as its candidate the BJP won but with INLD coming in at a shockingly poor result

BJP       38.7%
JJP       28.8%  (INLD splinter)
INC       17.4%
LSP       10.4% (BJP Jat splinter)
INLD       2.6%

BSP does not run in by-elections as a rule and supported its ally INLD in the by-election.  The result was that the BSP's vote base failed to transfer to INLD and the INLD base mostly went over to JJP.   As a result BSP has announced that it will end its alliance with INLD and ally with LSP.

It seems this coming election INC will be contesting in one piece while BJP and INLD will have to deal with splinters with the INLD's splinter being much more fatal.  It seems the upcoming battle will be BJP vs INC with the BJP having a small edge.  


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 10, 2019, 08:05:00 am
OK, I'm a total novice as far as Indian politics is concerned, but my usual strategy of looking through old threads hasn't really answered these questions so -

Why exactly is the south so much more left-wing/progressive than the North(-west/Ganges valley)? like, I know that there is this Modi/BJP Hindi-Hindustan thing, which would be offputting to non-hindi speakers in the south, but Kerala in particular has been a stronghold of the communists for much longer for that. I mean, I was there earlier this year, and it does seem to be much more relaxed as concerns caste structure, relgion, gender relations and all that. For all that they had these riots over the hindu temple, the mosque near where I was staying had a female muezzin, which is pretty rare really, compared to the rest of the Islamic world - why would this be?

I think this is mostly about how to create a unifying national identity to overcome religion, language, and caste identities so India could work as a united nation and develop into an economic and military superpower in the world.  The traditional vision from INC is based on Indian nationalism.  But that seems to have led to instances of  pandering to these same religion, language, and caste identities.   The BJP alternative vision is based on Hindu (and Hindi) nationalism as a unifying force.  The BJP is focused in Hindu nationalism but behind that, as everyone understands is, would eventually be Hindi nationalism.  The Hindi part of this vision clearly turns off Southern India since Dravidian languages are much further part to Hindu than other Northern languages. 

One example of the BJP push for Hindi in addition to Hindu nationalism is that Modi has started to speak Hindi in various international forums versus English.  Now that is alarming to states with their own language identities, especially Southern India.  Because on paper Hindi is NOT an official national language.  In theory Modi, who is from Gujarat, should really be speaking Gujarati at these international forums and not Hindi since under Indian law Hindi is no more official than Gujarati and is Modi's native tongue.   Of course the real reason is because Hindi is the the language spoken by a plurality of Indians (although concentrated in Northern India) so it is a good base to build a national language and national identity from.   So when the BJP is pushing for both Hindu and Hindi nationalism as a unifying factor the same resistance to Hindi nationalism in the South also turns them off toe Hindu nationalism.     


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: Famous Mortimer on February 10, 2019, 03:25:42 pm
What the hell is Jind?


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 10, 2019, 04:06:01 pm

It is an assembly district in Haryana.  They just had a by-election a few days ago which had consequences for alliances in Haryana. 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2019, 10:47:15 am
There are several states that will hold assembly elections at the same time as LS elections.  Orissa, AP, and J&K will for sure hold them with LS elections while others (Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand) could hold them at the same time as LS elections or be held in late 2019. 

Micro-states in the Northeast like Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh will also hold assembly elections with the LS elections but most likely I will not put much time on them.

AP election history already have been covered by
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281096.msg6491508#msg6491508

So I will focus on Orissa (or Odisha as it is called now) which is in Eastern India.
()

Orissa which was called Kalinga in ancient times is mostly populated by the Hindu Odia people who speak the Indo-Aryan Odia language.  In the North there are areas which have high concentration of tribal some of which are Christian. 
()


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2019, 11:31:25 am
The recent political history have been dominated by what I call the Two Patnaiks:  Biju Patnaik and Janaki Ballabh Patnaik.
 
Orissa was fairly competitive politically right after independence even though the INC was clearly the most dominant force.  But repeated defections from INC to opposition ranks have eroded the INC advantage.   Harekrushna Mahatab was the first INC CM
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With the various princely states and big landlords formed GP which became a powerful opposition party to INC.    In 1959 INC center-right splinter SWA split from the INC and in Orissa formed an alliance with GP which posed a significant threat to INC.

But after that INC brought in its new rising superstar Biju Patnaik to lead the INC to a significant victory in 1961 and becoming CM over SWA-GP with the GP merging into SWA soon after that election.
()

But in 1963 under the Kamaraj Plan Biju Patnaik stepped down from CM position to focus on building the INC party.  In the meantime former INC CM  Harekrushna Mahatab split from INC and formed JAC.  Without Biju Patnaik the INC lost the 1967 assembly elections with the SWA coming to power with support of JAC and PSP.

After that Biju Patnaik had a falling out with Indira Gandhi and formed UTC.    A rising power in INC Janaki Ballabh Patnaik had to make a call on if he should go with Indira Gandhi or follow  Biju Patnaik.  In the end he went with Indira Gandhi and became a powerful force in Indiira Gandhi's INC.
()

The SWA government fell part due to defections from JAC ranks to join up with INC and in 1971 the Orrisa assembly elections were held at the same time as the LS elections.    Biju Patnaik  moved to national politics and ran in the LS elections and was defeated by the INC Indira wave.  But in the assembly election INC fell short of majority and a government led by an independent CM was formed with backing from both SWA and UTC as JAC mostly lost its support to UTC.

In 1972 UTC had a falling out with SWA and choose to back an INC government led by Nandini Satpathy who had some connections with Biju Patnaik
()  

This arraignment did not last long and INC maintained its majority by getting a bunch of UTC defectors to join INC.  The unstable situation led to the 1974 elections which saw SWA and UTC join in an alliance to take on INC.  The INC failed to win a majority in a very close election but was able to form a majority with support from its tactical ally CPI.

Then came the 1975 emergency which eventually triggered a falling out between Nandini Satpathy  and Indira Gandhi as Nandini Satpathy resigned to join the anti-Indira Gandhi movement.  The emergency also saw Biju Patnaik jailed by Indiira Gandhi INC government.   The 1977 LS elections saw all anti-Indira Gandhi forces join forces (SWA SOP UTC JAC BJS) to form JNP.  Unlike Northern India Orissa under Nandini Satpathy did not indulge in excesses which actually did not lead to mass defections from INC in the 1977 LS elections where they took place in Northern India.  The result was a defeat of INC but the INC kept its vote base intact.

1977 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          21                 5             40.37%

CPI             5                  0               3.15%

JNP+         21                16             53.75% (CPM was part of JNP+)

Biju Patnaik led the JNP.  After the national victory of JNP in the LS elections with  Biju Patnaik becoming a minister in the new JNP government at the federal level  the Orissa assembly was dismissed and assembly elections took place.   The INC campaign was led by Janaki Ballabh Patnaik
 The result was a decisive JNP victory and a JNP CM with close links to Biju Patnaik installed.

1977 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        147                26             31.10%

INC rebel                         4              4.79%

CPI            25                  1              3.57%

JNP          147              110             49.17%

JNP rebel                         5              3.36%

CPM            4                  1              0.88%

The scale of the JNP victory was unprecedented in Orissa assembly election election and was the only time that a party won an absolute majority in the Orissa assembly election up until then other than the 1961 INC victory led by Biju Patnaik.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 12, 2019, 08:18:10 am
After JNP took power at the federal level in 1977 things started to fall apart which led to the fall of the JNP government in 1979 and the anti-BJS JNP(S) splitting out of JNP and the midterm LS elections of 1980.   Biju Patnaik which was most of JNP in Orissa went with JNP(S).  In the meantime  anti-Indira Gandhi INC(U) split from INC and allied with JNP(S).  The LS election result saw an INC landslide with the anti-INC vote split.   INC won all the seats except for Biju Patnaik.

1980 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                 20             56.07%

JNP           20                  0             14.11%

JNP(S)+    21                  1             22.84% (INC(U) CPM  CPI were part of JNP(S)+)

JKD            5                   0              1.01% (Tribal party)


The return of Indira Gandhi's INC to power at the federal level also led to the recalling of the Orissa state assembly followed by assembly elections later in 1980.  In the meantime BJP split from JNP and INC(U) broke off its alliance with JNP(S) which added to the split of the anti-INC forces.  The INC campaign was led by  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik.   The result was a massive INC landslide despite losing vote share relative to the 1980 LS election.

1980 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        147              118            47.78%

INC rebel                         4              2.63%

JNP            31                  3              4.14%

JNP(S)+   123                14            21.95% (tactical alliance with CPI+)

JNP(S) rebel                    2              3.10%

CPI+          42                 4              7.20% (tactical alliance with JNP(S)+)

INC(U)       98                 2              7.03%

BJP            28                 0              1.36%

The INC was returned to power with  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik as the new INC CM.

The 1977 Orissa assembly election was a watershed.  Before 1977 every assembly election except for 1961 did not have a party with an overall majority.  All Orissa assembly elections 1977 and after would yield a party with an overall majority.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 12, 2019, 04:17:15 pm
After the return to power for the INC in Orissa and the federal level anti-incumbency began to build up.    There are rumors of corruption and demands for sexual favors in return for policies in the Janaki Ballabh Patnaik government including the CM himself.   Biju Patnaik took his followers out of JNP(S) (now called LKD) and joined with JNP as BJP has left JNP and there were signs that LKD was open to cooperation with BJP.   Biju Patnaik. is fairly negative on the BJP and looked forward to storming back to power in Orissa based on the decline of INC fortunes.  All this was turned in 1984 when Indira Gandhi was assassinated and produced a sympathy wave in the 1984 midterm LS election for INC which also reached Orissa.    Once again  Biju Patnaik was the only opposition winner of a LS seat in Orissa with INC sweeping the rest.

1984 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                 20             57.46%

JNP+         21                  1             35.29% (CPM  CPI were part of JNP+)

LKD            5                   0              1.03%

BJP            4                   0               1.18%

Even though Biju Patnaik led JNP was sounded defeated in Orissa the election showed that in Orissa Biju Patnaik was the only alternative in town as an opposition force to take on INC.  For the 1985 Orissa assembly election Biju Patnaik resigned his LS seat to lead JNP into battle against Janaki Ballabh Patnaik and with the 1984 INC wave still not subsided was soundly beaten by the INC as Janaki Ballabh Patnaik was returned to power.

1985 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        147              117            51.08%

INC rebel                         1              1.52%

JNP+        142                21            31.04% (tactical alliance with CPI+)

JNP rebel                         5              3.92%

CPI+          37                 1              4.45% (tactical alliance with JNP+)

BJP            67                 1              2.60%

SUCI           2                  1              0.29%

One again even in defeat Biju Patnaik showed that his JNP was the only real opposition to INC in Orissa.  That would prove useful in the next round of struggle against INC.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: Ses on February 12, 2019, 10:11:36 pm
Hey jaichind, quick question -

Would you by any chance be able to compile an updated list of the alliances/prospective alliances are in each state and their implications? Reading your extensive contributions to this thread has been very informative, but a more concise resource for this would be helpful.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: Old School Republican on February 13, 2019, 12:01:15 am
Do you think the BJP could get a majority by themselves again


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 13, 2019, 08:53:10 am
Do you think the BJP could get a majority by themselves again

Most likely not.  Most poll have BJP short of majority and in fact NDA short of majority and in India the ruling party is usually overestimated in polls.  The only counter example would be 2009 when UPA outperformed polls other then that most poll always overestimate the incumbent party.   

Another sign that things are not going great for BJP in their own assessment is how they are dealing with SHS.  SHS has been pretty much spewing venom at BJP and the response from BJP has been nil and assertion that there will be a BJP-SHS alliance.  SHS is now demanding a majority of assembly and even LS seats in Maharashtra while BJP wants 50/50 split.  The fact that the BJP is willing to accept a lower share of seat relative to their 2014 performance seems to indicate that they are getting desperate to avoid a loss of seats in  Maharashtra.  This and their climb-down  in Bihar where they agreed to an even share of seats with JD(U) shows that their internal assessment is not optimistic.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 13, 2019, 09:56:33 am
Hey jaichind, quick question -

Would you by any chance be able to compile an updated list of the alliances/prospective alliances are in each state and their implications? Reading your extensive contributions to this thread has been very informative, but a more concise resource for this would be helpful.

Ok. let me take a shot at this for the bigger states.

For HP, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, and Goa the LS election will be a bipolar battle of BJP vs INC.  BSP and allies (like JCC Chhattisgarh) in have some strength in certain pockets and could swing  the election result in some seats but the key issue here is "Can Modi get BJP to punch above its weight given recent assembly election results and anti-incumbency trends".  If not then the INC will gain a bunch of seats here from the BJP relative to 2014.

Haryana: Was suppose to be BJP vs INC vs INLD-BSP.  For the first time since 2005 INC is united.  BJP is facing anti-incumbency due to anger from the powerful Jat community.  INLD has suffered a vertical split with INLD splinter JJP now torpedoing any chances for INLD.  BSP has decided to go with BJP Jat based splinter LSP.  AAP is also making a move here.  It should end up being BJP vs INC with the result being how the INLD, JJP,  LSP-BSP and AAP split the vote.  INC on paper should make a strong comeback given the circumstances but Modi could carry BJP to victory based on his own brand.

Punjab: Will be INC vs SAD-BJP vs AAP.  SAD-BJP was crushed by INC in the 2017 assembly elections which even with anti-incumbency should give INC an edge here.   AAP has mostly imploded here which should help SAD in particular.  I think in the end it will be bipolar between INC and SAD-BJP with the two side splitting the seats fairly evenly.

Delhi: BJP vs AAP vs INC.  Unless AAP and INC can form an alliance the BJP will sweep all the seats. The main problem is that INC has regained a lot of ground since the 2015 assembly AAP landslide victory so both AAP and INC can make an argument that it can wipe out the other so on the long run it can be the main alternative to the BJP.  Looks more and more unlikely an AAP-INC alliance can be formed.

UP: BJP-AD-SBSP vs SP-BSP-RLD vs INC.  How the election will turn out will depend on the strength of the Modi brand to carry BJP above its weight, if the SP-BSP vote bloc can fuse, and if SP-BSP-RLD can pull off a de facto tactical alliance with INC where INC poaches the BJP Upper Caste vote while SP-BSP runs weak candidates in areas where it is BJP vs INC.  BJP ally SBSP or even AD might defect to SP-BSP if they do not get their pound of flesh.    SP splinter PSP could also end up as an INC ally and could hurt SP-BSP in some seats.

Bihar: BJP-JD(U)-LJP vs RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI.  The social base of the two blocs are roughly equal.   BJP-JD(U)-LJP should have the upper hand given the Nitish Kumar brand and that alliance have greater cohesion where as RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI are running into seat sharing problems.  Only thing RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI can could on is some sort of undetected anti-incumbency toward the JD(U).  There is still a small chance that INC will leave    RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI and form an alliance with JD(U) if JD(U) is negative on BJP's chances in which case it becomes BJP-LJP vs RJD-RLSP-HAM-LJD-VIP-CPI vs JD(U)-INC.  In theory possible but unlikely.

Jharkhand: BJP vs INC-JMM-JVM-RJD.  In theory BJP ally AJSU might join BJP but in reality with BJP winning 12 out of 14 seats in 2014 the AJSU will not be able to get a seat sharing deal that it would demand so AJSU will most likely run separately.  There seems to be significant anti-incumbency against the BJP  so if INC-JMM-JVM-RJD cnd hold together the BJP will be in trouble.

Maharashtra: Should be BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP.  INC-NCP alliance is set.  BJP and SHS are still playing a game of chicken on alliance talks but in the end should form an alliance or else INC-NCP will sweep the state.  SHS splinter NMS has gone completely anti-Modi will run separately even though there are talks of NMS joining INC-NCP if BJP-SHS forms an alliance.  If SHS does run separately I can see NMS forming an alliance with SHS.  All things equal a BJP-SHS vs INC-NCP battle is advantage BJP-SHS although not to the same degree as 2014.

WB: AITC vs BJP vs Left Front vs INC.   This state is moving toward a AITC vs BJP battle.  The new Citizenship bill while turning off the Northeast to BJP does help BJP with Bengali voters.  Left Front will be pushed to a poor third and end up with no seats.  INC will be reduced to small pockets of strength.  Left Front and INC might try for a tactical alliance most likely to no avail.  AITC will win but BJP will gain a lot of ground in vote share and perhaps seats.

Orissa: BJD vs BJP vs INC.  INC is on the decline so it will be mostly BJD vs BJP.  BJD should win but there might be hidden anti-incumbency against BJD which could throw a surprise BJP victory.  On the long run this state might become BJD vs BJP bipolar state which could push BJD into an anti-BJP party vs its current position of being both anti-BJP and anti-INC. 

Karnataka: INC-JD(S) vs BJP.  BJP tends to outperform here in LS elections.  The tenuous INC-JD(U) alliance on paper should crush BJP.  Of course if the alliance has problems on the ground and it does then the BJP could fight INC-JD(S) to a draw.

AP: TDP vs YSRCP vs JS-Left vs INC vs BJP.  Mostly a TDP (anti-BJP) vs YSRCP battle.  TDP taking an anti-BJP pro-INC position has pushed YSRCP to a de facto pro-BJP position.  BJP has always been weak here and INC's image has been destroyed due to the creation of Telenaga in 2014.  A TDP-INC alliance was called off due to the negative brand of INC.  You can same the same for a possible YSRCP-BJP alliance due to the toxic brand of BJP here.  JS-Left could split the anti-TDP vote and help TDP but in the end YSRCP seems likely to win the state.  YSRCP could end up supporting BJP after the election.

Telangana: TRS-AIMIM vs INC vs TDP vs BJP.  Mostly a TRS vs INC battle with TDP and BJP having certain pockets of strength.  TDP's brand here is toxic due to its image of being opposed to the creation of Telangana in 2014 so INC and TDP choose to run separately.  TRS should repeat its 2018 assembly election victory especially after it got AIMIM to tactically back it.   TRS could support BJP after the election. 

TN: AIADMK vs DMK-INC-MDMK vs AMMK vs PMK vs DMDK vs MNM vs BJP.  Very chaotic.  AIADMK could ally with BJP due to pressure  from BJP despite BJP's toxic brand here.  As it is DMK-INC-MDMK is very strong and look posed to sweep the state due to the split of the AIADMK vote with AIADMK splitner AMMK.  In response I can see a AIADMK-DMDK-PMK-BJP alliance to try to stop the DMK-INC-MDMK Juggernaut.  Anti-BJP MNM  could end up with DMK-INC-MDMK.   Result will really depend on how badly AMMK hits AIADMK in term splitting the AIADMK vote.

Kerala: INC-KEC(M)-MUL vs Left Front vs BJP.  Used to bipolar between INC-KEC(M)-MUL and Left Front. BJP is surging here and could win a seat.  There is anti-incumbency against the Left Front so INC-KEC(M)-MUL should do well.

 
Assam: BJP-BPF vs INC vs AIUDF vs AGP.  AGP has left its alliance with BJP-BPF due to the new Citizenship bill.  If anything that could help BJP-BPF as that might split the anti-BJP Ahom vote from INC.  if the Muslim vote is split between INC and AIUDF and the Ahom vote is split between INC and AGP then BJP-BPF will do very well.

Northeast mini states : Mostly BJP and allies should gain vs INC.  New citizenship bill will hurt BJP but the pull of federal subsidies will be too strong and should propel BJP and allies to victory.

Federal territories:  Mostly BJP vs INC (Pondicherry will be AINRC vs INC) and BJP should have a edge here.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 14, 2019, 01:54:45 pm
Kashmir Death Toll Climbs to 40 in India’s Worst Attack Under Modi

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/roadside-blast-kills-18-indian-paramilitary-troops-in-kashmir

Modi will be under pressure to take some sort of action especially with elections coming up.  Could be double edged sword for BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: urutzizu on February 14, 2019, 04:28:46 pm

Likely going to be more Surgical Strikes. If Modi can drag the Tension out it will put Opposition in a difficult Situation of having to support the Government like Vajpayee mastered with the Kargil War in 1999. Also Kashmiri Bodybags sell quite well in Indian elections, sadly.

What downsides do you see for the BJP? I dont really see any for Modi, at least not inside the country....


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 14, 2019, 04:30:26 pm

Likely going to be more Surgical Strikes. If Modi can drag the Tension out it will put Opposition in a difficult Situation of having to support the Government like Vajpayee mastered with the Kargil War in 1999. Also Kashmiri Bodybags sell quite well in Indian elections, sadly.

What downsides do you see for the BJP? I dont really see any for Modi, at least not inside the country....

If Modi's response is too strong and provokes escalation from Pakistan and perhaps drag USA into the situation then he can be accused of mishandling the situation by making the Kashmir issue more internationalized versus the Indian narrative of it being an internal Indian domestic issue. 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 14, 2019, 04:49:46 pm
Alliance updates:
1) In Mahabharata, as expected SHS and BJP are moving toward an alliance.  It is now only a matter of on what terms.  There are signs that NCP is openly pushing for SHS splinter NMS to join INC-NCP alliance.  INC objects saying that NMS is "not secular" but the real issue is whereas SHS is mostly anti-Muslim, NMS is both anti-Muslim and anti-North Indian.  INC's real fear is that NMS joining INC-NCP will hit them in Northern India, especially UP and Bihar.

2) It seems BJP pulled the plug for now on New Citizenship bill given the loud negative feedback in Northeast India.  I guess this prevents large scale defections of allies in Northeast India and opens the door for AGP to rejoin NDA.

3) In TN it seems that we are iterating toward a AIADMK-BJP-PMK-DMDK alliance to counter the DMK-INC-MDMK-VCK-CPI juggernaut.  It seems AIADMK internally does not want BJP as an ally as it will clearly drive anti-BJP votes away.  But given the number of pending corruption cases against key AIADMK leaders they might not have much of a choice.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 14, 2019, 05:03:12 pm
Back to Orissa election history

After the INC landslides of 1984 LS and 1984 Orissa assembly elections, INC past finally caught up with it.  Corruption charges at the federal and Orissa level hurt the INC brand.  Various scandals related to Janaki Ballabh Patnaik from his first term are all coming out.   At the national level JNP and LKD merged with anti-Rajiv Gandhi INC rebels to form JD and sought to fight the 1989 LS elections with tactical alliance with Left Front and BJP.  In Orissa  Biju Patnaik led the JD effort.   Given  Biju Patnaik's anti-BJP stance JD did not form a tactical alliance with BJP unlike other parts of Northern India but JD won a smashing victory never-the-less.

1989 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                  3             38.41%

JD+          21                18              56.08% (CPM  CPI were part of JD+)

JNP          13                   0               1.21% (One faction of JNP refused to join JD)

BJP            6                   0               1.28%

JKD+         4                   0               0.60% (Tribal party)

With the INC defeated in 1989 a JD minority government was installed at the federal level with outside support from the Left Front and BJP.   For the 1990 Orissa assembly election Biju Patnaik led the JD effort without, again, a tactical deal with BJP.  It did not matter as the swing against Janaki Ballabh Patnaik's INC was so massive that JD won the largest landslide in Orissa assembly election before or since.

1990 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        146               10             30.01%

INC rebel                         1              2.44%

JD+         139              123             53.69% (tactical alliance with CPI+)

JD rebel                          3              1.34%

CPI+          17                 6              3.81% (tactical alliance with JD)

BJP            63                 2              3.56%

Biju Patnaik took over as CM for the first time since he resigned in 1963 when he was INC CM.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2019, 08:24:46 am
The JD government pretty much fell apart in 1991 with BJP dropping support over the Ram Temple issue as well as the JD splinter JD(S) pulling out of JD.  Biju Patnaik  and his supporters stayed loyal to JD.  After a short sprint of JD(S) government with outside support from INC new election were called.  The BJP was en route to large gains due to the Ram Temple issue until the Rajiv Gandhi assassination drove a lot of sympathy vote to INC.  Orissai voted after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination and saw both INC and BJP grew at the expense of JD with JD(S) further splitting the JD vote.  The result was a small INC edge over JD with BJP making a big jump (although not as big as it would been if there were not the Rajiv Gandhi assassination)

1991 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                13              44.05%

JD+          21                  8              39.75% (CPM CPI were part of JD+)

JD(S)       18                   0               2.97%

BJP          21                   0               9.50%

JMM          2                   0               0.60% (Tribal party but more Jharkhand based)

The INC returned to power at the federal level as the result of the 1991 LS election.   The  Biju Patnaik government over time saw growing frustration and anti-incumbency to the point that despite  Biju Patnaik's personal popularity his government was not popular and was defeated in the 1995 assembly election by INC led again by Janaki Ballabh Patnaik.  The BJP for the first time went all out to grow in Orissa and while still performed poorly was growing in terms of vote share showing that its 1991 LS surge due to the Ram Temple issue was being sustained.

1995 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        147               80             39.39%

INC rebel                         3              3.09%

JD+         147                47             35.83%

JD rebel                          1              1.64%

SJP            59                 0              1.36% (renamed from JD(S))

BJP          144                 9              7.88%

CPI+          34                 1              2.57%

JMM           16                 4              1.94%

JPP              4                 1              0.17% (Tribal party)

SUCI           1                  1              0.13%

One more Janaki Ballabh Patnaik was made INC CM after the INC victory despite his tainted term in 1980-1990 given his organizational skills in delivering victory to INC.

The 1996 LS election took place soon after the INC return to power in Orissa.  There was heavy anti-incumbency to INC at the national level although INC was still in its honeymoon period at the state level.   Biju Patnaik  led JD into battle and ran heavy on an anti-INC and anti-BJP campaign.  The relative popularity of the new INC government in Orissa and a further surge of the INC split the anti-INC vote to deliver a fairly large INC victory even as the INC suffered setbacks in the rest of the county.  What also helped INC was the INC PM P. V. Narasimha Rao who is from AP choose to run for a LS seat in Orissa.

1996 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                16             44.90%

JD+          21                  4             33.43% (CPM was part of JD+)

BJP           20                  0             13.42%

SJP            2                   1              1.55%

JMM           4                   0              1.55%

The BJP surge in 1991-1996 period shows that is is arriving as a real third force to break the INC-JD duopoly on power. 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 16, 2019, 10:53:12 pm
After the 1996 LS elections a JD minority government was formed without side support of INC to keep out the BJP.  This type of arrangement was by definition unstable and bound to fall which it did in 1998.  In the meantime Biju Patnaik passed away in 1997.  His son Naveen Patnaik who was a writer and have no real political experience was brought in from Delhi to Orissa to try to fill his father's void.  
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Naveen Patnaik barely spoke Odia due to his long stay in Delhi but so strong was the memory Biju Patnaik that did not deter the population of Orissa from giving him strong support especially as the INC government of Janaki Ballabh Patnaik have fallen into the familiar pattern of corruption and scandal.  

When INC finally pulled the plug on the JD government in 1998, Naveen Patnaik who did not share his father's hostility toward the BJP proposed an JD-BJP alliance to take on INC in the 1998 LS elections.  This was rejected by JD high command who insisted on being equidistant to INC and BJP.  In response Naveen Patnaik split JD in Orissa to form BJD and formed and alliance with BJP.  The BJD-BJP alliance trounced INC in the 1998 LS election in Orissa pushing JD into a poor third place.

1998 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                  5              41.04%

BJD+        21                 16             48.69% (BJP was part of BJD+)

JD+          21                   0              8.40% (JMM CPI CPM was part of JD+)

The BJP and its allies did well enough in the 1998 LS elections to form a government at the center with the support of TDP.   But in 1999 due to the defection of AIADMK the BJP government fell and the 1999 LS elections were held.   The 1999 LS elections saw a wave in favor of BJP PM Vajpayee due to the circumstances where his government fell and this was especially true in Orissa as the poor performance of JD+ in the 1998 LS elections led what is left of JD to pretty much go over to BJD.  The result was a landslide victory for BJD-BJP.

1999 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           20                  2             36.94%

BJD+        21                 19             57.63% (BJP was part of BJD+)

BJP rebel                         0              0.73%

CPI+          5                   0              1.37% (CPM was part of CPI+)

JMM           7                   0              1.70%

The defeat of INC was so well expected that the INC failed to even nominate a candidate against Naveen Patnaik especially as natural disasters in Orissa exposed the incompetence of the  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik INC government.   In many ways the 2000 Orissa election was pre-ordained as a INC landslide defeat as  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik's INC was soundly defeated by the BJD-BJP alliance led by  Naveen Patnaik.

2000 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        146                26            33.92%

INC rebel                         2              2.71%

BJD+        147              106            47.59%
 
BJD rebel                         4              4.12%
BJP rebel                         2              0.83%

AITC          36                  1             0.78% (INC splinter but de facto BJD rebel)

CPI+          69                 3              2.93% (JD(S) and CPM were part of CPI+)

JMM           21                 3              2.14%

BSP          105                 0             1.15%

The BJD-BJP alliance was not as strong in the 2000 Orissa assembly election given the large number of BJD and BJP rebels.  But so unpopular was the Janaki Ballabh Patnaik INC government that this did not stop a BJD-BJP victory and Naveen Patnaik  being installed as the BJD CM of Orissa.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 17, 2019, 10:20:13 pm
The Naveen Patnaik BJD government installed after the 2000 Orissa assembly election was fairly popular so when 2004 LS elections were called Naveen Patnaik choose to go for early assembly elections at the same time especially when the NDA which BJD was a part of was fairly popular nationally and was expected to return to power.  It turned out that NDA was ousted nationally but in Orissa BJD-BJP did fairly well and Naveen Patnaik was returned to power even as the UPA swept into power nationally even as BJD splinter OGP was allied with INC.

2004 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           20                  2             40.43% (de facto CPI support)

BJD+        21                 18             49.31% (BJP was part of BJD+)

BJP rebel                         0              0.93%

JMM           7                   1              1.54%

BSP          12                   0              2.20%


2004 Orissa  assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        139                40            36.59% (OGP part of INC+, tactical alliance with CPI+)

INC rebel                         1              2.10%

CPI+          17                 2              1.76% (JD(S) CPM part of CPI+,tactical alliance with INC+)

BJD+        147                93            44.47% (BJP was part of BJD+)
 
BJD rebel                         6              4.59%
BJP rebel                         0              0.84%

JMM           12                 4              1.78%

BSP            86                 0             1.93%

SUCI            1                 1              0.13%

BJD-BJP won easily the LS election as Janaki Ballabh Patnaik again led the INC campaign.  Despite BJD splinter OGP going with INC, a a tactical alliance between INC+ and CPI+ and continued BJD and BJP rebels the BJD-BJP alliance was returned to power with Naveen Patnaik continuing as CM.  Overall INC gained ground since 1999-2000 but was still some distance away from taking back power.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 18, 2019, 09:57:07 am
After the 2004 LS elections the INC led UPA government was installed at the federal level while Naveen Patnaik led the BJD-BJP government in Orissa.  In the lead up to the 2009 LS and Orissa assembly election, using the pretext of Hindu-Christian communal conflict  Naveen Patnaik broke off BJD's alliance with BJP.  Most likely this was based on the fact that the BJP seems unlikely to win the 2009 LS elections and that INC has been reduced by 9 years of BJD rule that Naveen Patnaik feels that he can take on INC without support from BJP.  The 2009 LS and Orissa assembly election would prove him right.

2009 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           20                  6             32.75%

BJD+        21                 15             41.75% (CPI CPM NCP were part of BJD+)

BJP           21                  0             16.89%

SAMO        7                   0               0.74% (BJP splinter)

JMM           4                   0              1.75%

BSP          19                   0              1.90%


2009 Orissa assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          146                27            29.02%

INC rebel                         2              2.77%

BJD+        147              109            41.59%  (CPI CPM NCP were part of BJD+)
 
BJD rebel                         1              1.04%

SKD            1                   1             0.25% (BJD tribal rebel)

BJP+         146                 7            15.27%
 
SAMO         99                 0              1.05% (BJP splinter)
  
JMM           32                 0              1.58%

BSP          113                 0              1.52%

BJD splinter OGP have since merged into NCP which in turn allied with BJD.  BJD now without BJP as an ally was able to pull in CPI CPM and NCP as allies which added to its vote share.  The INC effort was led again by  Janaki Ballabh Patnaik and was once again defeated with INC not being able to take advantage of the BJD BJP split given the large number of INC rebels and large decrease in BJD rebels relative to 2004.  At the national level UPA won re-election while  Naveen Patnaik  continued as CM with a BJD majority on its own.  After 2009 INC high command had enough of Janaki Ballabh Patnaik and "retired" him by making him governor of Assam.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: FredLindq on February 18, 2019, 04:26:05 pm
BJP and SHS has made a deal. BJP gets 25 and SHS 23 seats in Maharashtra. In 2014 it was BJP 24, SHS 20 and others 4.

In UPA NCP got 24 seats allocated to them.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 18, 2019, 05:41:04 pm
BJP and SHS has made a deal. BJP gets 25 and SHS 23 seats in Maharashtra. In 2014 it was BJP 24, SHS 20 and others 4.

In UPA NCP got 24 seats allocated to them.

As expected.  It seems they also agreed to split the Maharashtra assembly election seats 50/50.   To be fair it will not be BJP 25 SHS 23.  Both parties will have to give up some seats for other allies like RPI, RSP and BVA.  SWP which went with BJP-SHS in 2014 most likely will go with INC-NCP while BVA which was part of INC-NCP in 2014 will most likely go with BJP-SHS this time.  It will be interesting to see what SHS splinter and now avowed anti-Modi NMS will do in now.  Most likely some sort of tactical alliance with INC-NCP where NMS no run and de facto INC-NCP in a bunch of seats and in parts of Mumbai where NMS is strong the INC-NCP will run weak candidates and de facto back NMS to take on SHS.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 18, 2019, 05:49:38 pm
It seems that AIADMK-BJP alliance will be announce soon.  It seems it will be AIADMK 25 BJP 15 for the 40 seats in TN/Pondicherry.  Of course this is just the first cut and these seats will have to be carved out between other possible allies like PMK DMDK TMC and AINRC (in Pondicherry).
Most likely it will be AIADMK 20 BJP 8 PMK 5 DMDK 4 PT 1 TMC 1 AINRC 1.  KMK might get a seat.  PMK is also in talks with DMK-INC but is demanding 6 seats and there is no way DMK-INC who feel they are en route to a landslide victory will give away that many seats so PMK will most likely have to go with AIADMK-BJP.  Of course unless somehow AMMK can be brought into the AIADMK-BJP bloc the DMK-INC-MDMK-VCK-CPI bloc seems likely to sweep TN especially given the toxic brand of the BJP in TN.  What AIADMK-BJP have to hope for is the anti-BJP vote is split between DMK-INC and AMMK.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 18, 2019, 09:28:37 pm
To finish up Orissa election history, after 2009 LS election UPA was returned to power as well as  Naveen Patnaik's BJD at the Orissa state level.  2009-2014 saw a rapid drop in support for INC due to corruption scandals as well as poorly handled Telengana split from AP and a surge of support for BJP.  In Orissa without Janaki Ballabh Patnaik leading INC did leave INC gaining since it was now without the negative image of Janaki Ballabh Patnaik  but left it leaderless and rudderless losing more ground to BJP and BJD.  For 2014 the anti-INC mood mostly pushed the anti-INC vote to BJD with BJP making very limited gains even as the Modi wave swept across the rest of India.

2014 Orissa  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           21                  0             26.38%

AOP            9                  0               0.74% (INC splinter)

BJD           21                20             44.77%

BJP           21                  1             21.88%

CPI+          5                   0              0.48% (CPM was part of CPI+)

JMM           1                   0              0.82%

BSP          21                   0              1.03%

AAP          18                   0              0.70%


2014 Orissa assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          147                10            26.04%

INC rebel                         1              2.25%

AOP            76                 0              1.03%

BJD          147              117            43.91%
 
BJD rebel                         1              0.87%

SKD           51                  1              0.41% (BJD tribal rebel)

BJP           147               16            18.22%
 
SAMO        44                  1              0.90% (CPM was part of CPI+)
 
JMM           13                 0              1.04%

BSP          113                 0              0.87%

AAP          106                 0              0.61%

The INC was crushed and Naveen Patnaik's BJD was returned to power as the BJP rode Modi's wave to power at the federal level.  Since 2014 Naveen Patnaik's BJD has taken a pro-BJP position even as the BJP grew in Orissa to be the main opponent for BJD as INC's fortunes continues to decline.  INC splinter AOP merged into BJD.  For 2019 LS and assembly elections Naveen Patnaik will lead BJD into battle against a surging BJP and a weakening INC.  INC most likely will try to have an alliance with JMM and CPI-CPM to try to avoid a complete collapse of the INC vote.  Most likely for 2019 we will see as BJD vs BJP battle.

The narrative of election history of Orissa is the steady decline of INC from the most powerful party in the state to a permanent state of opposition against BJD-BJP to a second tier party where it is no longer even in contention to win power anymore.  Despite his organizational skills long time INC leader Janaki Ballabh Patnaik with his long list of scandals and died in 2015 has to take most of the blame.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 19, 2019, 07:45:50 am
AIADMK PMK BJP forms alliance in TN

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/its-official-bjp-aiadmk-pmk-mega-alliance-tn-general-elections-2019-96999

()

Not clear where is DMDK or TMC.  I assume they will be roped in later.  I also assume they will back AINRC in Pondicherry


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 19, 2019, 08:14:43 am
Since TN is in the news due to AIADMK-BJP-PMK alliance it would be interesting to talk about MDMK and how it is part of the DMK-INC alliance.  MDMK was formed in 1993 by Vaiko
()

Vaiko was the right hand man of DMK leader Karunanidhi in the 1980s and was viewed as his natural successor
()

But by the early 1990s it was clear that Karunanidhi  was grooming his son Stalin to be his successor
()

That fact should have been clearly in the 1970s since the future role of Stalin was part of the cause of the Karunanidhi-MGR fued in the 1970s and MGR leading AIADMK as a DMK splinter in 1972 when  DMK leader and TN CM Karunanidhi was trying to push his son Stalin into politics and saw MGR popularity as a threat to Stalin's future in DMK.
()

Seeing that Karunanidhi was pushing Stalin into the #2 spot in the DMK  Vaiko quit DMK in 1993 and formed MDMK.  In theory the reason was that Vaiko felt that the DMK was not taking a strong enough pro-LTTE position in Sri Lanka but in reality it was all about Stalin. MDMK since then has taken a anti-DMK position in TN politics except for a brief 2004-2006 period when it was part of a grand anti-AIADMK alliance led by DMK.

Now after Karunanidhi passed away in 2018 Vaiko has joined with Stalin led DMK and will be working toward Stalin becoming CM in the next TN assembly election.  Which pretty much means there was no real point on why even MDMK was formed in the first place.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 24, 2019, 10:18:34 pm
There seems to be an assumption that the BJP-SHS alliance in Maharashtra should mean a sweep of BJP-SHS similar to 2014.  I do not see why that is the case.  The fact is the BJP-SHS split which only ended recently with a patched up alliance has already seen the SHS paint the BJP led by Modi-Amit Shah as the Gujarati BJP.  This narrative will not go away overnight with the re-creation of the alliance.  Also if SHS ran separately from SHS could have picked up and even split the anti-incumbent vote from INC-NCP.  Now a good part of the SHS Maratha base could go over to SHS splinter NMS or even NCP led by Maratha leader Sharad Pawar.  I say that BJP-SHS will most likely split the Maharashtra seats with INC-NCP down the middle.

It also seems SHS has ulterior motives for being a part of BJP led alliance.  If BJP itself does not cross 200 seats SHS could play a role to overthrow Modi and put in pro-SHS and Maratha leader Nitin Gadkari as PM. And if BJP falls below 160 seats SHS might even back Sharad Pawar as PM.  Either way SHS was to able to take credit for putting a Maratha in the PM seat and lock in the Maratha vote for SHS.  Of course if BJP get about 220 seats then it will be Modi and SHS will have to accept its place.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: urutzizu on February 26, 2019, 10:49:46 am
The Indian Armed Forces just conducted raids on alleged terror camps in Pakistan.
Unsurprisingly the opposition backed the government. For Indian internal politics this clearly
gives a boost to the Prime Minister who will now, at least for a brief period, be seen as a statesman in the public eye.
The question will now be how Pakistan responds. If they keep things to diplomatic complaining and dont escalate the situation further, Pakistan will be internationally seen as the sensible one and the Boost for Modi will largely subside as other Issues become more important.
However if Pakistan escalates militarily they keep the issue on the Agenda during the elections, and that is certainly what the BJP wants.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 27, 2019, 03:00:13 pm
Well, clearly the India-Pakistan escalation is getting more heated.  I am not so sure this actually works in the BJP advantage.  If India can be viewed as "winning" the escalation with Pakistan Kargil  in 1999 then for sure that will help the incumbent PM.  And even then it is not clear if the 1999 BJP victory was because of the Kargil conflict or the way Vajpayee was brought down in 1999 and the vote more about rejecting the opportunistic politics regional parties like AIADMK.   Given that a Indian plant was shot down an a pilot capture and becoming a POW I am not sure India is "winning" this escalation. 

I think all things equal this conflict should help BOTH BJP and INC at the expense of various regional players.  Really depends on this conflict plays out but that is my hunch.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 27, 2019, 05:07:17 pm
Since the current India-Pakistan standoff is trigger by the Kashmir conflict (again) and it is likely that J&K will have assembly elections this Spring along with LS elections it would be useful to go over the election history of J&K.

J&K or Jammu and Kashmir should really be called Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladkah since it is 3 separate regions..  The root causes of the conflict is mostly well known where the Hindu Maharaja of Muslim majority Kashmir wanted to stay independent versus joining India or Pakistan in 1947.   Sheikh Abdullah of JKN which was the main political party in Kashmir was a friend of Indian INC PM Nehru.   
()

Pakistan feared that Sheikh Abdullah will push Kashmir into India so they launch and invasion of Kashmir in 1947 which led to the unoccupied part Kashmir joining India as an autonomous region called J&K.
()

Due to the special nature of how J&K joined India it was given special autonomous powers spelled out in Article 370 of the Indian Constitution.   Elections are held every 6 years as opposed to 5 and the CM role is actually called PM (Sheikh Abdullah being the first PM of J&K leading a JKN ministry.)   India J&K itself having 3 separate sub-regions of Kashmir (mostly Muslim), Jammu(Hindu majority but significant number of Muslims) and Ladkah (very thinly populated with Buddhist plurality but a significant and growing Muslim minority.)
In 1962 PRC-India war the PRC also took over Aksai Chin (the Chinese position which is also my is that Ladkah is also part of China but I guess I will mention this one and stay away from that issue.)
()

The status of Kashmir became very controversial.  INC wanted to make sure J&K stay in India, proto-BJP (BJS) was very concerned about the special status of J&K and wanted to get rid of Article 370 and Sheikh Abdullah and his JKN took on a sovereigntist position that the population of an undivided Kashmir should make the final decision on the status of Kashmir.   All this came ahead in 1953 when INC split JKN and overthrew Sheikh Abdullah  to ensure that JKN does not become a force that might take J&K out of India.  Sheikh Abdullah  was then jailed with a pro-INC JKN continued.

In 1964 JKN merged into INC while the pro-Sheikh Abdullah  faction of JKN took on the JKN name.
 Soon after that Sheikh Abdullah was freed as part of a deal with Nehru to represent India in talks with Pakistan on a solution to the Kashmir problem.  Then Nehru passed away and things got frozen again with Sheikh Abdullah frozen out of power.  In 1965 the PM of J&K position was renamed to CM but the 6 year election cycle (vs 5 years in the rest of India) continued.   Elections continued but with JKN boycotting elections.

As time went out it was clear that Sheikh Abdullah was the most popular politician of J&K and freezing him out of power was reducing India's legitimacy in J&K, especially the Kashmir region.  So in 1975 Indira Gandhi made a deal with Sheikh Abdullah where Sheikh Abdullah was made CM and a INC-JKN alliance formed.  The 1977 LS election JKN-INC alliance swept the polls in J&K while INC was defeated in North India.  What was a warning for India was that proto-JMI which is a Kashmir separatist group came onto the scene and is beginning to take some votes in Kashmir.

With a JNP government installed at the federal level JKN saw no more need to ally with INC.  The 1977 J&K assembly elections later in 1977 it was a 3 way battle between JKN INC and JNP with JKN winning a majority.  INC and JNP tend to be stronger in Hindu Jammu and JKN sweeping Kashmir.

The 1980 LS elections saw JKN form an alliance with JNP with JKN winning the Kashmir seats and INC winning the Jammu/Ladkah seats while INC stormed back to power at the federal level.  In 1982 Sheikh Abdullah passed away and his son Farooq Abdullah took over JKN and the CM of J&K.
()

By the 1983 assembly elections JNP mostly imploded with BJP taking its place but in a weak position even in Hindu Jammu.  In 1983 it was a JKN vs INC battle with JKN winning with JMI and  separatist  JKPC still playing a minor role in Kashmir.  In 1984 was when the J&K began to head downward fast.  One of Indira Gandhi's last acts a few month before she was assassinated was that he arranged for the JKN to be split  with Farooq Abdullah's brother-in-law Ghulam Mohammad Shah leading a bloc of JKN MLAs to create a splinter JKN party and became CM with INC support.  Farooq Abdullah's JKN started to fight in the streets to the loss of power.  The war in Afghanistan against the USSR  also led to a surge of Islamic radicalism which also led to greater protests.   Law and order became such an issue as to make J&K ungovernable and the Ghulam Mohammad Shah ministry had to be dismissed in 1986.

Rajiv Ghandhi then made a deal with  Farooq Abdullah where in the 1987 election JKN-INC will form an alliance and pretty much monopolize power in J&K.  But the genie has been let out of the bottle.  The Islamic radicalism which JKN help to promote when it was out of power took a life of its own and used JMI as a core to form a grand radical Muslim-Kashmir separatist umbrella MUF.  In order to make sure MUF does not make gains there was significant rigging of the election results with MUF winning only 4 seats.  It was estimated that MUF should have won 20+ seats in the 76 member J&K assembly.   Separatist  JKPC running separately clearly did not help the MUF cause.  But the 1987 assembly election was a clear turning point. All truest in the Indian government and election process in Kashmir disappeared.  Law and order totally broken down as armed insurgency became the main method of opposition.   Radical Islam began to dominate in Kashmir where large number of Hindus were driven out of Kashmir in 1989-1990.  The 1989 LS election saw turnout in Kashmir crash to single digits with JKN taking meaningless victories in Kashmir.  By 1990 Kashmir was a war zone and  the   Farooq Abdullah government had to be dismissed and he left India soon after that .  In the 1990-1996 period no elections took place in J&K as Kashmir moved into a insurgency conflict.

After years of battle the insurgency began to recede that by 1996 LS elections J&K was able to hold elections even as JKN boycotted them.  A JD government came into power after the 1996 LS elections and made a deal with Farooq Abdullah  for him to return and lead JKN in the 1996 J&K assembly election.  The 1996 was the first post-insurgency election and saw a landslide JKN victory and Farooq Abdullah reinstalled as CM of J&K

1996 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          85                 7             20.40%

INC rebel                         1              1.80%

AIIC(T)        9                  1              0.70% (INC splinter)

JKN            81                57             34.78%

JKN rebel                         1              2.73%

JKAL          27                  1              2.43% (JKN splinter)

BJP            53                  8            12.13%

BJP rebel                         0              0.88%

JD             76                  5            10.87%

BSP           29                  4              6.43%

JKNPP        27                  1              2.25% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            4                  1              0.96%

JKN mostly swept the Kashmir seats and the Jammu seats are mostly split between INC, BJP, JD, and BSP with JKN winning the Muslim seats in Jammu.  The various separatists opposition and insurgency mostly boycotted the polls but they would not have done well given the damage they inflicted during the peak of the insurgency in the early 1990s. 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: Old School Republican on February 27, 2019, 06:31:29 pm
The Indian Armed Forces just conducted raids on alleged terror camps in Pakistan.
Unsurprisingly the opposition backed the government. For Indian internal politics this clearly
gives a boost to the Prime Minister who will now, at least for a brief period, be seen as a statesman in the public eye.
The question will now be how Pakistan responds. If they keep things to diplomatic complaining and dont escalate the situation further, Pakistan will be internationally seen as the sensible one and the Boost for Modi will largely subside as other Issues become more important.
However if Pakistan escalates militarily they keep the issue on the Agenda during the elections, and that is certainly what the BJP wants.


Pakistan is the one who started this, as they clearly committed an attack of war


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on February 28, 2019, 09:52:08 am
After the return of Farooq Abdullah's JKN to power to J&K tensions continue to diffuse in J&K as the armed insurgency continues to fall.   In the meantime the JD government at the federal level with outside INC support continues to bicker and loses support to BJP.  The fall of the JD government in 1998 and midterm LS election saw a BJP surge and a BJP government formed.  In J&K the BJP surge came in Hindu Jammu as BJP became the dominate party in Jammu while JKN continue to dominate Kashmir.

1998 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             6                  1             19.24%

INC rebel                        0               4.32%

JKN            6                  3              36.35%

KAL            1                   0              0.97% (JKN splinter)

BJP            6                   2             28.64%

BSP            4                  0              4.97%

The BJP government at the federal level was pulled down by AIADMK in 1999 leading to 1999 LS elections.  In between the 1998 and 1999 LS elections two key events took place which would have a large impact on J&K politics.

First India and Pakistan fought a low intensity called the Kargil War (Kragil being in Ladkah) which India mostly prevailed but had the two nuclear power coming to total war led to a rethink on both sides to find ways to deescalate the Kasmir conflict.  This would play a key role in the early 2000s thaw in conflict in J&K.  Second INC Muslim leader Mufti Mohammad Sayeed left INC to form his separate PDP.  Mufti was a member of JKN back in the 1950s and stayed in the pro-INC faction of JKN after  Sheikh Abdullah was removed from power.  He joined INC when the pro-INC JKN faction merged into INC.  In the late 1980s he had a falling out with Rajiv Gandhi and joined JD.  He rejoined INC in the early 1990s but in 1999 left INC again when it was clear that Sonia Gandhi was now the top dog in INC as he is from the anti-Rajiv Gandhi branch of INC.  PDP platform is more sovereigntist while JKN is more pro-autonomy.
()

The creation of PDP led J&K to turn into a 4 party system (JKN INC BJP PDP) where JKN will fight PDP in Kashmir and Muslims pars of Jammu while INC will fight BJP in Hindu parts of Jammu.   The 1999 LS election took place too quick for PDP to make a big splash but it was able to capture some vote share.  The BJP surge continues eating into the INC Hindu vote.

1999 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             5                  0             17.83%

JKN            6                  4              28.94%

JKAL           3                   0              1.84% (JKN splinter)

PDP            4                  0              6.86%

BJP            6                   2             31.56%

BSP            2                  0              4.84%

After the BJP returned to power in a bid to de-escalate the J&K problem the BJP brought JKN into the NDA with Farooq Abdullah's and and heir Omar Abdullah joining the NDA cabinet.
()


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on March 01, 2019, 08:23:46 am
The 2002 J&K assembly election took place under a circumstance of thaw in the Kashmir conflict.  Also the BJP is clearly running into anti-incumbency at the federal level.  Both trends tend to help the INC relative to the BJP in the Jammu area.  The rise of an sovereigntist alternative in the PDP is also drawing some of the separatist vote to come out to PDP which means that JKN loses ground in Kashmir to PDP.  The result of this 4 way fight was a clear hung assembly.

2002 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          81                23             25.27%

INC rebel                         3               2.72%

DM              1                  1              0.62% (INC splinter)

JKN            85                28             28.24%

JKN rebel                         3              1.73%

PDF             2                  1              0.80% (JKN splinter)

JKAL            9                  1              0.91% (JKN splinter)

PDP+         64                17            11.32%

PDP rebel                         1             0.82%

BJP+          63                  2            10.48%

BJP rebel                         0              1.08%

BSP           33                  1              4.50%

JKNPP        36                  4             3.83% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            7                  2              0.88%

Both PDP and INC outperformed relative to the 1999 LS election results.  The PDP effort was especially helped by the efforts of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's daughter Mehbooba Mufti who was his clear political heir.
()

After much haggling a PDP-INC government was formed by cobbling up various independents with Mufti Mohammad Sayeed taking on the CM role for 3 years out of the 6 year term and INC taking the CM for the remaining 3 years.  This election cemented the 4 party system of J&K.  If you look at the spectrum of Muslim and Hindu the relative lean of each of these 4 parties are

      BJP                INC                 JKN                 PDP
  <-------------------------------------------------------->
 Hindu                                                               Muslim

with BJP appealing to Hindu and very little Muslims, PDP appealing to Muslims and very little Hindus, INC appealing to mostly Hindus but some Muslims, and JKN appealing to mostly Muslims but some Hindus.  Obviously parties like BSP appeal to Dalits which would be mostly Hindus.  So in Hindu districts it would be BJP vs INC with JKN sometimes getting in there.  In Muslim seats it would be JKN vs PDP with INC sometimes getting in there.  In Buddhist plurality Ladkah it is mostly INC vs BJP for the Buddhist vote with a clear INC advantage and JKN vs PDP for the Muslim vote with JKN with a clear advantage.

The 2004 LS elections which saw BJP defeated at the federal level saw INC and its local ally PDP forming a tactical alliance and taking most of the seats but JKN still doing well enough to best PDP in the Kashmir region as anti-incumbency builds up against PDP in Kashmir.

2004 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          4                  3              30.81% (Buddhist Ladkah LUTF was part of INC+)

PDP            3                  1              11.94%

JKN            6                  2              22.02%

BJP            6                   0             23.04%

BSP            3                  0              2.22%

JKNPP        4                   0              3.02% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

BJP outperformed their 2002 assembly election vote share but that is partly because turnout for LS elections in Kashmir is lower relative to Jammu.  It is sort of SF in North Ireland not taking their seats in the UK parliament.  Separatists in Kashmir do not recognize Indian rule so they often do not turn out in LS elections but will turn out, starting in the early 2000s for assembly elections.  So the relative vote count in Jammu in higher than Kashmir in LS elections.   Of course part of it is because BJP does better in LS elections given that popular BJP PM  Vajpayee is running at the top of the BJP effort.  Of course the BJP level of support is a significant drop relative to 1998 and 1999 at the peak of the Vajpayee  wave.   Most of that drop went to INC.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on March 01, 2019, 12:42:16 pm
The 2008 J&K assembly election saw the INC and PDP alliance fall apart and running separately.  The INC lost ground across the board due to anti-incumbency at the federal level with BJP making gains at the expense of INC in Jammu.

2008 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          82                17             18.71%

INC rebel                         0               3.38%
 
JKN+          87               29             23.61% (Buddhist Ladkah LUTF was part of JKN+)

JKN rebel                         0              1.91%

PDF            27                 1              1.80% (JKN splinter)

JKANC        56                 0              1.02% (JKN splinter)

PDP            78               21            15.33%

PDP rebel                         0             1.40%

JKDPN        25                 1              1.25% (PDP splinter)

BJP             64               11            12.44%

BJP rebel                         2              1.36%

JKPC            2                 0              0.38% (Separatist)

BSP           83                  1              3.67%

JKNPP        36                  3             3.33% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            8                  1              0.80%

AIP             1                  1              0.20% (Separatist)

This election saw the participation of separatist outfits for the first time since the 1980s.  After some haggling JKN and INC formed an alliance and formed the government with JKN's Omar Abdullah  as CM as JKN leader Farooq Abdullah continued to work at the federal level.  

This JKN-INC alliance continued in the 2009 LS election where where INC outperformed in Northern India as well as Jammu leading to JKN-INC victory.

2009 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          6                  5              43.78% (JKN was part of INC+)

JKN rebel                        0               0.94%
INC rebel                        0               1.25%

LUTF           1                  1                0.87% (Buddhist Ladkah party)

PDP            6                  0              20.05%

BJP            4                   0             18.61%

JKPC          1                   0              2.51% (Separatist)

BSP            5                  0              3.10%

JKNPP        2                   0             2.81% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

In Ladkah INC and JKN rebels running against the INC candidate threw the election to LUTF  which is really a Buddhist Ladkah INC splinter.  INC won re-election at the federal level as well.  Once again JKPC which is a Separatist party also ran in this election.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on March 04, 2019, 01:37:37 pm
The 2014 LS elections where held with INC credibility shot and the surge of the Modi wave.  In J&K JKN-INC ran as allies to no avail as there was also anti-incumbency against the JKN-INC government.  The result was a PDP sweep of Kashmir and BJP sweep of Jammu.  In Ladkah INC splinter LUTF ran on the BJP ticket and won with an INC rebel to split INC vote.

2014 J&K LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          6                  0              34.29% (JKN was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0               1.33%

PDP+         6                  3              21.52% (Ladkah Muslim ISK was part of PDP+)

BJP            6                   3             32.65%

JKPC          1                   0              2.01% (Separatist)

BSP            4                  0              1.53%

JKNPP        5                   0             1.23% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

AIP            1                   0             0.62%  (Separatist)

Just to give a sense of the relative strength of the parties in each region the results by region are



2014 J&K LS election (Kashmir)

JKN           3                  0              34.86% (JKN was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0               1.41%

PDP           3                   3             46.89%

BJP            3                   0              1.38%

JKPC          1                   0              6.25% (Separatist)

JKNPP        3                   0             0.80% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

AIP            1                   0             1.94%  (Separatist)

In Kashmir it is mostly PDP vs JKN (backed by INC).  With the situation deteriorating in Kashmir the Muslim vote swung over to the sovereignists PDP on an anti-incumbent wave.  The Separatist vote is also growing.  BJP is very weak here as there are very few Hindus left in Kashmir.
 


2014 J&K LS election (Ladkah)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           1                  0              22.60%

INC rebel                        0             26.60%

ISK            1                  0              24.17% (Ladkah Muslim ISK was part of PDP+)

BJP            1                   1             26.63% (Buddhist Ladkah LUTF ran on BJP ticket)

Here the Muslim vote split between the ISK and INC Muslim rebel.  LUTF running as BJP was able to win enough of the Buddhist vote away from the INC candidate to win.



2014 J&K LS election (Jammu)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            2                  0              34.60% (backed by JKN)

PDP            2                  0                8.73%

BJP            2                  2              48.56%

BSP           2                  0                2.09%

JKNPP        2                  0               1.51% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

Here it is INC (backed by JKN) vs BJP with PDP taking some votes in Muslim areas.  The Hindu vote clearly swung over to BJP by a large margin leaving it with a clear victory.

After the LS election a BJP government was formed at eh federal level.  The INC-JKN alliance ended given the disastrous election results.  The thinking in both parties was that part of its base defected to BJP (for INC) or PDP (for JKN) given the negativity toward the other ally.  And for the upcoming J&K assembly election it is best to part ways to try to save as many votes as possible.  


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on March 04, 2019, 02:25:45 pm
The 2014 J&K assembly election saw the JKN and INC fight separately to to prevent the PDP and BJP surge in Kashmir and Jammu respectively.  To some extent they recovered some votes but it was clear that PDP and BJP came out ahead in their respective regions as the anti-incumbent wave was too strong.

2014 J&K assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            86                12             18.20%

INC rebel                         0               0.48%
 
JKN+          86               16             21.13%

JKN rebel                         0              1.21%

PDF             3                  1              0.73% (JKN splinter)

PDP+         85                28             23.32%

PDP rebel                         0             0.22%

JKDPN+        5                 0              0.61% (PDP splinter)

BJP             75               25            23.22%

BJP rebel                         1              1.14%

JKPC          26                 2              1.95% (Separatist)

BSP           50                  0             1.42%

JKNPP        60                  0             2.01% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

CPM            3                  1              0.50%

AIP             1                  1              0.38% (Separatist)

Just to give a sense of the relative strength of the parties in each region the results by region are



2014 J&K assembly election (Kashmir)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            45                 4             12.92%

INC rebel                         0               0.56%
 
JKN            46               12             29.58%

JKN rebel                         0              2.04%

PDF             3                  1              1.66% (JKN splinter)

PDP            46               25             37.91%

PDP rebel                         0             0.50%

JKDPN+        5                 0             1.39% (PDP splinter)

BJP             34                 0             2.27%

JKPC          25                 2              4.43% (Separatist)

CPM            2                  1              1.11%

AIP             1                  1              0.87% (Separatist)

The battle was mostly PDP vs JKN but it seems some of the anti-JKN INC vote that went PDP in the LS election came back.  Turnout in Kasmir assembly elections are at lot higher than LS elections which should have helped PDP and Separatist parties but JKN and INC running separately did seem to help to retain the core vote bases from PDP.




2014 J&K assembly election (Ladkah)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC              4                  3            51.25%
 
JKN+            3                 1             13.90%           

PDP              3                 0             11.89%

BJP               4                 0            22.37%

Without directly LUTF support BJP support fell a bit and the INC was able to consolidate its Buddhist  and Muslim base to win 3 out the 4 seats while PDP managed to split the JKN Muslim vote.



2014 J&K assembly election  (Jammu)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            37                 5             21.01%

INC rebel                         0              0.44%
 
JKN            37                 3             14.51%

JKN rebel                         0              0.59%

PDP+         36                  3             11.87%

BJP            37                25             40.47%

BJP rebel                         1              2.13%

BSP           36                  0             2.45%

JKNPP        34                  0             3.43% (Left Muslim pro-India party)

The BJP wave continued from the 2014 LS election.  In theory it should be a BJP clean sweep in Hindu areas with INC-JKN split but the INC was able to gain back some anti-JKN votes to dent the BJP vote share to retain a few seats.

With the assembly hopelessly hung months of debates and talks produced a bizarre PDP-BJP government with PDP leader Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as CM again. Despite the contradictory nature of this alliance  it managed to continue until 2016 when Mufti Mohammad Sayeed passed away.
 Again after several months of talks PDP-BJP government was reformed with now PDP leader  Mehbooba Mufti as CM.    The PDP-BJP alliance clearly hurt PDP in Kashmir as the anti-BJP Muslim vote must have drifted to JKN.    In the meantime JKN-INC restored their alliance.

Then in June 2018 PDP and BJP had a finally falling out and J&K was put under "Governor's rule" which is really rule from the federal government.  The 2019 J&K assembly election will most likely seen BJP vs PDP vs JKN-INC.  It is clear that in Kashmir JKN should defeat PDP and in Ladkah INC should defeat BJP as Buddhist Ladkah LUTF seems to have drifted away from BJP.  The real question will be in Jammu on if the BJP can hold on to the Hindu vote against the INC.  All things equal a JKN-INC government will be formed after the assembly election.  The question is with how large of a majority which is a function of Jammu results.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on March 05, 2019, 06:20:40 am
CNX poll for UP after the India-Pakistan conflict (change relative to early Feb poll)

NDA                41 (+12)
SP-BSP-RLD    35 (-14)
INC                  4 (+2)
()

Like I guessed, the India-Pakistan conflict tends to help both BJP and INC relative to regional parties.  If India-Pakistan conflict now dies down I suspect the impact of this will be fairly small as level of support might revert over the next month or so.


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on March 05, 2019, 09:58:06 am
In TN DMK-INC alliance talks done:  In Puducherry the alliance will back the INC candidate.  In the 39 TN seats it will be DMK 20 INC 9 VCK 2 CPI 2 CPM 2 MDMK 1 IJK 1 IUML 1 KMDK 1.
MDMK is also allocated a Upper House seat when the TN elect its next batch of Upper House MPs in June.

What is striking about this distribution is the relative weakness of MDMK in these talks. I would have expected MDMK to get 2 if not 3 seats.  CPI and CPM getting 2 seats each is way above what they are worth but I guess DMK is betting that the small CPI and CPM vote base are more transferable so it makes sense to get them on board.

On the AIADMK side it already have BJP PMK and PT in the alliance and there are talks with DMDK to bring them in.  Both PMK and DMDK held talks with DMK but they are went nowhere because DMK has a winning hand and saw no need to give up large number of seats to either PMK nor DMDK.  AIADMK with AMMK splitting the AIADMK base and taking an the anti-BJP mood in TN is more desperate and willing to deal.

Even if AIADMK ropes in DMDK most likely DMK bloc will have the upper hand if not sweep the state.  On risk for DMK-INC bloc is if AMMK and upstart NMN ends up eating into the anti-BJP vote letting in AIADMK bloc in some seats.
 


Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on March 08, 2019, 07:45:43 pm
News Nation poll for Bihar and Jharkhand.

For Bihar it has
 
            Seat   Vote share
NDA       27         45%
UPA       12          37%
Other      1

which seems reasonable given the relative sizes of the social bases of the two blocs.
()


For Jharkhand  it has

           Seat   Vote share
NDA      10         42%
UPA         4         34%

Which given the INC-JMM-JVM-RJD grand alliance is surprising.  One would expect UPA to at least fight BJP to a draw.  If this poll is true then it implies UPA allies are not able to transfer votes to each other.
()


Separately VPA came out with a projection that NDA will win 240-260 seats.  Back in early Feb VPA projected 242 seats for NDA.  If so it seems NDA gained around 10 seats from the conflict with Pakistan which implies that impact of the conflict with Pakistan is already wearing off.
 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2019, 10:15:26 am
More alliance news which mostly are favorable to BJP

1) In Jharkhand BJP-AJSU alliance formed.  BJP will contest 13 out of 14 seats and AJSU will contest 1 seat.  I am surprised that AJSU was willing to accept 1 seat but this does give BJP a fighting chance in Jharkhand to win a majority of seat against INC-JMM-JVM-RJD.

2) In Delhi there are still on again off again INC-AAP talks but most likely they will fight separately and BJP should sweep all 7 seats.

3) In UP RJD has joined SP-BSP alliance so it will be BSP 38 seats SP 37 seats 3 RJD with the alliance not running in the 2 Gandhi INC seats.  There are still rumors of ongoing talks between SP-BSP and INC.  I still think the most likely outcome are for a tactical alliance where SP-BSP vacate 5-6 more seats where INC is fairly strong and INC vacate 30-40 seats where INC is more likely to split the anti-BJP vote and run in other seats where INC has Upper Caste support to ensure that those votes does not go INC.  

4) In TN it seems DMDK has agreed to join AIADMK-BJP-PMK-PT alliance where it will contest 4 seats.  This is not confirmed but if so then this is a big climb-down for DMDK.  Of course the 2016 TN assembly election results show the true size of the DMDK base without the novelty factor of 2006-2009.

5) In AP it is pretty clear now that TDP and INC will run separately so TDP can run a clear anti-Telengana  campaign by pinning YSRCP as a puppet of TRS given the recent de facto alliance between YSRCP and TRS.

6) In Assam it is still not clear of AGP will join the BJP alliance now that the new citizenship bill has been withdrawn.  There are rumors of INC-AGP alliance talks but most likely in the end AGP will go with BJP.

7) Former BJP head of Kerala Kummanam Rajasekharan who is now the governor of Mizoram has resigned as governor and it is said he will contest for the BJP in Thiruvananthapuram of Kerala which is BJP's strongest district.  This gives BJP a clear shot at winning its first seat ever in Kerala if the INC and Left Front vote are evenly split.

8  ) In Maharashtra it seems SHS splinter NMS which has turned to a harsh anti-Modi stance is unlikely to contest and de facto throw its support behind NCP (although taking a more neutral stance on INC).  Not sure how this will work out on the ground but should give INC-NCP a chance to fight BJP-SHS to a draw here.

9) In WB there has been on again off again talks between INC and Left Front for an alliance.  At this stage that no longer seems possible but there could be some sort of tactical alliance where INC and Left Front support each other in some seats but have "friendly fights" in other seats.  Main problem here is geographical.  Some of the INC strongholds happens to have strong Left Front presence with AITC and BJP far behind.  So the idea here is where INC and Left front can form an alliance both are so weak as not to be able to take on AITC nor BJP.  Where INC or Left Front are strong both are strong so they view each other as the enemy as opposed to AITC and BJP.

10) In Karnataka INC-JD(S) talks are getting heated there is danger of the entire alliance breaking down with both sides sticking to their guns.  I suspect this is a game of chicken and a INC-JD(S) alliance will be formed.

11) In Bihar it is the same in RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP talks where INC insist on 12-14 seats out of 40 while RJD only could part with 10 given the need to accommodate other allies like RLDP HAM VIP and perhaps CPI CPM CPM(ML).  RJD has made a final offer of 11 seats to INC but it seems INC insist on at least 12.  I suspect this is just a game of chicken since if this alliance splits then for sure BJP-JD(U)-LJP will sweep Bihar.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2019, 08:35:10 am
ECI announces LS election dates which will be 7 phases between April 11 to May 19

Date      April 11 April 18 April 23  April 29   May 6   May 12  May 19
States       20     13           14          9           7          7            8
Seats        91       97         115        71         51        59          59

There will be 543 LS seats, the number of eligible votes are around 900 million, there will be around 1 million polling stations and around 11 million polling staff.

For assembly elections AP, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Odisha (Orissa) will be held at the same time as the LS but not J&K.  The opposition in J&K (JKN PDP INC) are crying foul saying that this is an attempt to lower turnout in J&K and help BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2019, 08:50:36 am
Based on this schedule one should expect exit polls to come out 5/19 and counting to take place 5/23.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2019, 02:06:58 pm
Now that poll dates are announced a bunch of polls came out.  The first one is India TV-CNX  which has it at

            Seats    Diff vs 2014     Diff vs Jan 2019 poll   
NDA        285         -70                     +28
UPA         126         +46                    -20
Others     132         +24                     -8
()

                          BJP   NDA      INC  UPA      Pro-NDA       Anti-NDA      Total
MP                      23                  6                                                        29
Chhattisgarh         6                   5                                                       11
Rajastahan          20                   5                                                       25
Punjab                        SAD:3     9                                      AAP:1         13
Haryana               9                   1                                                        10
Bihar                  15    JD(U)12   2  RJD:8                                             40
                                 LJP:3                                           
WB                     12                  0                                      AITC:30      42
                                                                                       Left:0
Odisha                 7                   0                BJD:14                             21   
Gujarat              26                   0                                                        26
Karnataka          13                 13  JD(S):2                                           28
AP                      0                   0   TDP:3     YSRCP:22                          25
Kerala                 1                   8  MUL:2                           Left:5          20
                                                   KEC(M):1                      Left Ind: 2
                                                   RSP:1
TN                      1  AIADMK:12 5  DMK:16                        AMMK:2      39 
                              PMK:2                                               NMN:1
UP                    40   AD:1         4                                      SP:18         80
                                                                                       BSP:16
                                                                                       RLD:1
Maharashtra      22   SHS:10     9  NCP:7                                              48     
Delhi                  7                   0                                       AAP:0           7
J&K                    2                   1  NC:2                             PDP:1            6
Assam                8                   4                                      AIUDF:2       14     
Northeast           3  MNF:1        3                                      Left:1           11
                             SDF:1                                               
                             NPP:1
                             NDPP:1
UT                    4   AINRC:0    2                                                           6
Telengana         0                    2                   TRS:14        AIMIM:1       17                   
Jharkhand         8                   2  JMM:3                           JVM:1          14
Goa                  2                   0                                                           2
Uttarakhand      5                   0                                                           5
HP                    4                   0                                                           2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Total              238  47           82  45             50               81              543


I think this poll still does not categorize JVM correctly as UPA and also still counts TDP as UPA when TDP does not have an alliance with INC in AP.

Overall NDA lost ground in the Northeast due to the Citizenship bill but gained ground in the Hindi North due to the Pakistan conflict and also gained in TN due to AIADMK-BJP alliance.  I am still skeptical that AIADMK-BJP can do so well in TN given the anti-Hindi sentiment there.  Also J&K result of (BJP 2 INC 2 JKN 1 PDP 1) does not make sense.  It implies that INC or BJP would win a seat in Kashmir when that is not possible.  Overall the trend of this poll relative to Jan does seem to make sense and the momentum so far is with BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2019, 03:08:09 pm
Map an details of the 7 LS phases

()

Phase 1
Last date of polling: April 11
Andhra Pradesh - 25
Arunachal- 2
Assam - 5
Bihar - 4
Chattisgarh - 1
Jammu Kashmir - 2
Maharashtra - 7
Manipur - 1
Meghalaya - 2
Mizoram - 1
Nagaland - 1
Orissa - 4
Sikkim - 1
Telangana - 17
Tripura - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 8
West Bengal - 2
Andaman Nicobar Islands- 1

Phase 2:
Last date of polling: April 18
Asaam - 5
Bihar - 5
Chattisgarh - 3
Jammu and Kashmir - 2
Karnataka  - 14
Maharashtra - 10
Manipur - 1
Orissa - 5
Tamil Nadu - 39
Tripura - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 8
West Bengal - 3
Puducherry - 1

Phase 3:
Last date of polling: April 23
Assam - 4
Bihar - 5
Chattisgarh - 7
Gujarat - 26
Goa - 2
Jammu and Kashmir - 1
Karnataka - 14
Kerala - 20
Maharashtra - 14
Orissa - 6
Uttar Pradesh - 10
West Bengal - 5
Dadar and Nagar Haveli - 1
Daman and Diu - 1

Phase 4:
Date of counting: May 23
Bihar - 5
Jammu and Kashmir - 1
Jharkhand  - 3
Madhya Pradesh  - 6
Maharashtra  - 17
Orissa - 6
Rajasthan - 13
Uttar Pradesh - 13
West Bengal - 8

Phase 5:
Last date of polling: May 6
Bihar- 5
Jammu and Kashmir- 2
Jharkhand  - 4
Madhya Pradesh - 7
Rajasthan - 12
Uttar Pradesh - 14
West Bengal - 7

Phase 6:
Last date of polling: May 12
Bihar - 8
Haryana - 10
Jharkhand - 4
Madhya Pradesh - 8
Uttar Pradesh - 14
West Bengal - 8
Delhi - 7

Phase 7:
Last date of polling: May 19
Bihar - 8
Jharkhand  - 3
Madhya Pradesh - 8
Punjab - 13
West Bengal - 9
Chandigarh - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 13
Himachal Pradesh - 4


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2019, 04:55:22 pm
C-voter poll for LS elections (change from Jan 2019 poll)

           seats        vote share
NDA     264(+31)    41.1%(+3.5%)
UPA     141(-26)     30.9%(-1.3%)
Others 183(-5)       28.0%(-2.2%)
()

Most of the NDA gains especially with respect to vote share are from alliance with AIADMK in TN and alliance with SHS in Maharashtra. Of course the BJP surge in the Hindi heartland also adds to the gain in seats relative to Jan 2019.

By state
Bihar
()


Gujarat
()


Kerala
()


Assam
UPA- 7
NDA-6
AIUDF- 1
UPA- 42.6%
NDA-42.5%
AIUDF- 3.9%
Others-11%


UP
()


Maharashtra
()


MP
()


Rajasthan
()


Odisha
()


Haryana
()


Punjab
()


WB
()


HP
()


TN
()


Jharkhand
()


Karnataka
()


Delhi
()


AP
()


J&K
()


Telangana
()


Goa
()


Uttarakhand
()


Chhattisgarh
()


Manipur
()


Arunachal Pradesh
()


Meghalaya
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2019, 09:23:19 am
Zee 24 Taas poll

             Seats
NDA        264
UPA         165
Others     114
()

Some state details

Uttar Pradesh: 80 seats
BJP - 50
INC - 5
SP-BSP - 25


Bihar: 40 seats
NDA - 28
UPA - 10
Others - 2


Jharkhand: 14 seats
NDA - 7
UPA - 7

 
Chhattisgarh: 11 seats
BJP - 4
INC - 7


Punjab: 13 seats
NDA - 3 (SAD -2 BJP -1)
INC - 10


Haryana: 10 seats
BJP - 6
INC - 3
Others - 1 (I assume INLD)

 
Gujarat: 26 seats
BJP - 24
INC - 2

 
Maharashtra: 48 seats
NDA - 30  (BJP 16 SHS 14)
UPA - 17 (INC 7 NCP 10)
Others - 1

 
Karnataka: 28 seats
BJP - 8
UPA - 20


Jammu and Kashmir: 6 seats
BJP - 3
UPA - 2 (INC 0 JKN -2)
PDP - 1


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2019, 06:24:35 pm
News nation poll

          Seats  Vote share
NDA      270      34%
UPA      134      28%
Others  139      29%

()

State level results

TN
()


Karnataka
()


Maharastra
()


Chhattisgarh
()


Bihar
()


WB
()


Odisha
()


Gujarat
()


Jharkhand
()


MP
()


J&K
The BJP is expected to win 3 of the 6 seats. Congress, NC and PDP may win one seat each.


Assam
BJP - 7 seats, Congress - 4 seats, AIUDF - 2 seats


UP
BJP may win 35 seats, SP-BSP-RLD may win 43 seats.  I guess INC 2


Uttarakhand:
BJP - 4 seats, Congress - 1 seat


Haryana:
BJP - 6 seats, Congress - 2 seats, INLD - 1 seat, JJP - 1 seat (INLD splinter)


HP:
BJP - 4 seats, Congress - 0 seats


Delhi:
BJP - 4 seats, AAP - 3 seats


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2019, 06:27:14 pm
In seems in WB INC and Left front are close to a full alliance.  It is said INC will contest 17 seats and Left front 25 seats.  It seems both INC and Left Front are concerned that if there is no Left Front-INC alliance then anti-AITC Left Front voters might vote BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) on March 11, 2019, 07:19:28 pm
How many seats does the NDA have to win to be certain that they will form the next government? A majority? Or how many below the magic 272?

Also, how many for Modi to stay as PM? (as opposed to having a different BJP Prime Minister)
And how many for Gandhi to be the likely next PM?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2019, 09:27:49 pm
How many seats does the NDA have to win to be certain that they will form the next government? A majority? Or how many below the magic 272?

Also, how many for Modi to stay as PM? (as opposed to having a different BJP Prime Minister)
And how many for Gandhi to be the likely next PM?

I would say if BJP (not NDA) is at 220 or above then PM is for sure Modi.  If BJP is between 200 and 220 it is most likely Modi but could end up being BJP's Nitin Gadkari.  If BJP is between 180 and 200 then most likely it will be Nitin Gadkari but could still be Modi.  If BJP is below 180 then it would be Nitin Gadkari or someone like NCP leader Sharad Pawar as a leader of some sort of Grand Alliance government.

If INC gets above 150 (which means BJP is most likely at most 150 or a bit more) I can see INC forming the government but most likely not Rahul Gandhi as I suspect he could not rally support of parties like SP or BSP to back him.  It might even end up being Sonia Gandhi or again NCP leader Sharad Pawar.  INC getting above 150 this election is far fetched so this is a fairly unlikely scenario.
 Frankly I do not even think Rahul Gandhi is planning to fight to become PM in 2019.  His goal should always be 2024.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2019, 09:48:35 pm
India Today Axis poll on preferred PM is interesting.

They have it at (change from Jan)
Modi              52(+4)
Rahul Gandhi  33(-2)

Usually these polls overestimate the sitting PM and Rahul Gandhi at 33 is actually pretty good at the start of a campaign.   The Jan 2019 numbers were just after the INC victory in late 2018 assembly elections which was an artificial high number for Rahul Gandhi anyway.   

The demographic breakdown and compared to a Jan 2019 poll are interesting
 
By community
                      Modi          Rahul Gandhi
Upper Caste      72(+15)         15(-11)
OBC                 67(+12)          20(-7)
Tribals              44(-5)             40(+8)
Dalits               41(-6)             44(+10)
Muslims            18(+1)            61(+4)

So the conflict with Pakistan has consolidated Hindu Upper Caste and OBC behind Modi which Rahul Gandhi is gaining ground with Dalits and Tribals.  This would be relatively good news for BJP in places like MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, HP, and Uttarakhand, mixed news in places like UP, Bihar, Haryana, WB and bad news for BJP in places like Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. 


By region it is
                    Modi          Rahul Gandhi
North            54(+5)            31(-1)
South           38(+3)            45(-1)
West             56(+3)            29(-1)
East              57(+3)            27(-2)


By gender it is
                   Modi          Rahul Gandhi
Male             53(+6)            32(-5)
Female         51(+2)             35(+1)


By urban/rural it is
                  Modi          Rahul Gandhi
Urban          50(+4)             31(-2)
Rural           49(+3)             35(-1)

So Modi starts the campaign consolidating the urban male Upper Caste voter with Rahul making gains with Tribals and Dalits.  Bad news for INC is that BJP vs INC battleground states like MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, HP, and Uttarakhand are exactly the states that Modi has done well in the past and seems to start the election with a large lead which would give again the BJP an outsized seat share relative to vote share.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2019, 05:26:37 am
In Assam BJP and AGP renews alliance now that Citizenship bill is put on hold.  AGP has no real choice since if AGP ran separately it would have no chance to wins seats.

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/agp-bjp-join-hands-two-months-after-separation-722964.html


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2019, 12:01:36 pm
In TN INC splinter TMC also joins AIADMK-BJP alliance.   On the whole AIADMK have been giving out a large number of seats in its bid to form a grand alliance.  I am not sure if that is a good idea.  By giving out more seats than "market value" AIADMK can build a large coalition but sends a signal that AIADMK is weak and in decline.  To some extent DMK has a similar problem as it gave out 2 seats to CPI and CPM which is more than they are worth.  But on the whole the problem is worse on the AIADMK side.

Articles like

"When Amma is not there Modi is our daddy, India's daddy: AIADMK minister"

https://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/when-amma-is-not-there-modi-is-our-daddy-india-s-daddy-aiadmk-minister-119031100004_1.html

Where an AIADMK leader calls Modi "Daddy" projects weakness and allows the DMK to attack the AIADMK as a puppet of BJP and provoke the specter of Hindi chauvinism which TN is fairly sensitive to.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2019, 12:47:29 pm
VPA poll which tends to have a pro-BJP bias but recently came out with some poor poll results for NDA came out with a poll which puts NDA at above majority.

             Seats    Vote share
NDA        291         41%
UPA        120         33%
Others     132         26%

()
()

By region
                               Seats                                           Vote share
                    NDA        UPA      Others     Total         NDA        UPA      Others
Northeast        17           4            4           25
East                69          13          36        118          43%        29%       28%
South              31          48          51        130         27%        40%       33%
West               81          23           0         104          49%        41%      10%
North              93          32          41        166          48%        31%       21%

Looking at seat count we can derive the regions to be

Northeast - Assam, Arunachal P, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Meghalaya, Sikkim
East - Bihar, Jharkhand, WB, Orissa, A&N
South - Karnataka, AP, Telangana, TN, Kerala, Pondicherry
West - Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, D&N H, D&D, Lakshadweep
North - J&K, HP, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Uttarakhand, UP, MP, Chhattisgarh, Chandigarh

Some state level data

Bihar
             Seat        Vote share
NDA        34              49%  (BJP 16 JD(U) 14 LJP 4)
UPA          6              38%  (RJD 4 INC 2)
Others                      13%


Jammu only - BJP 58% INC 32% Other 10% -> BJP wins the 2 seats with ease in Jammu


MP
            Seat        Vote share
BJP        22              49%
INC         7              42%
BSP                          5%


Chhattisgarh
              Seat        Vote share
INC          9              45%
BJP           2             38%
Others                     17%


Punjab
             Seats
INC          7
NDA         5   (SAD 4 BJP 1)
AAP          1


Haryana
             Seats    Vote share
BJP           9           46%
INC           0           19%
JJP            1           22%
Others                    13%


Gujarat
             Seats    Vote share
BJP          24           53%
INC           2           40%
Others                     7%


Rajasthan
             Seats
BJP         20
INC          5


Karnataka
             Seats        Vote share
BJP         15                 46%
UPA        13                 48%  (INC 10 JD(S) 3)


UP
             Seats         Vote share
SP-BSP    38                40.7%  (BJP 37 AD 1)
NDA        36                42.4%  (SP 21 BSP 15 RLD 2)
UPA          5                 11.0% (INC 5)
PSP(L)      1
Others                           5.9%


TN
             Seats         Vote share
UPA          18               38% (DMK 14 INC 2 VCK 2)
NDA          15               36% (AIADMK 12 PMK 2 BJP 1)
AMMK         6               20%
NMN                             2%
NTK                              2%

So we can infer some results in other large states.  This implies that in Jharkhand, WB, Orissa, A&N NDA would win 35 seats which would imply very strong BJP finishes in all of them.

Pretty much this poll paints a story of a Modi surge in the Hindi belt just large enough to win most of the seats despite a vote share lead that is not that massive while in TN an UPA sweep was averted by AMMK winning a large part of the anti-BJP vote and produced a larger than expected seat haul for NDA.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2019, 02:33:12 pm
Mint.com does their own scenario analysis of LS elections.

First they assume vote share in 2014 are unchanged but take into account changes in alliance.  This gives NDA 319 seats as NDA lost TDP as an ally in AP and Telenaga but gained AIADMK as an ally in TN  and, AJSU in Jharkhand, and  AGP/BPF as an ally in Assam as well as swapping RLSP for JD(U) in Bihar.
Thinking about this list despite all the talk about Modi driving away allies this record since 2014 is not bad for BJP/Modi.
()



The second scenario which is more realistic takes into account that the 2014 Modi wave was based on anti-incumbency.  Using recent assembly election results and taking into account of anti-incumbency for states that had assembly results as while ago generates a state-centric projection which has NDA as 250 seats but UPA only at 107 seats.
()


The third scenario builds on the second scenario by assuming another Modi wave which generates another significant majority for NDA with BJP at 240 seats.
()


The fourth scenario takes the second scenario and assumes Rahul Gandhi/INC catches fire by pinning rural distress and slow job growth on Modi/BJP.    This creates a virtual tie between NDA(187 seats) and UPA(184 seats) with BJP (142 seats) and INC (139 seats) also in a virtual tie.
()

Most polls seem to show the race somewhere between the second and third scenario.  The best Rahul Gandhi and INC can hope for now is a reversion of race to a pre-Pakistan conflict stage which would be something like a bit better than second scenario which is achieved by various alliances breakthroughs in UP, Bihar and WB.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2019, 09:09:09 pm
In Bihar there is still a deadlock between RJD and INC on seat sharing.  INC insist on 15 seats while RJD is proposing RJD 20 INC 11 RLSP 3 HAM 2 VIP 2 CPI 1 CPI(ML) 1 and LJD run on the RJD symbol.  INC position seems strange given the history of RJD-INC alliances.  Historically the alliance of RJD-INC in Bihar were

1999 LS: RJD 32 INC 5 RJD backed independent 1
2004 LS: RJD 26 LJP 8 INC 4 NCP 1 CPM 1
2009 LS: RJD and INC ran separately
2014 LS: RJD 27 INC 12 NCP 1

NCP in Bihar have since mostly merged into INC.  Still unlike 2014 RJD-INC now have to accommodate RLSP HAM VIP CPI CPM CPM(ML).  INC's position seems to be that RJD has to accommodate these new allies and if anything the INC quota should go up relative to 2014's 13 (INC 12 NCP 1).  Granted with Lalu Yadav in jail the RJD strength has weakened but under the circumstances INC at 11 seats seems reasonable.

The main reason for INC's position seems to be a bunch of BJP and JD(U) Upper Caste rebels want to join INC to run and INC could not accommodate all these rebels and make sure its main Bihar Kingpins also get to run.  I suspect INC will have to backdown as the premise of these BJP and JD(U) MP (or ex-MP) defections to INC are premised on INC being part of the RJD alliance which can marry the RJD Yadav-Muslim vote base to their Upper caste vote based to defeat BJP-JD(U)-LJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 14, 2019, 06:18:51 pm
In Bihar, it seems the RJD-INC alliance have reached at deal.  It will be RJD 20 INC 11 RLSP 3 HAM 2 LJD 1 VIP 1 CPI 1 CPI(ML) 1.  Getting CPI(ML) is quite a coup since the Maoist CPI(ML) have a fairly large base in central Bihar.  They seem to want to hold on announcing the exact candidates and seats since they want to see what BJP-JD(U)-LJP comes up with in terms candidates, and from which community to be exact.

In Karnataka INC reached a deal with JD(S) to contest together INC 20 JD(S) 8. I suspect after this election the BJP will overtake INC as the largest party in Karnataka since anti-JD(S) elements in INC will go over to BJP as will anti-INC elements in JD(S).  Still on the short term this will help INC-JD(S) gain a few extra seats.

In Delhi it seems Rahul Gandhi is asking INC poll workers to vote online to indicate they they are for forming an alliance with AAP.  I suspect this is too late as AAP has already announced their candidates.  Even if INC would want to make a deal with AAP, AAP will counter demand that INC also form an alliance with AAP in Haryana which I am sure is dead on arrival for the Haryana INC.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 14, 2019, 08:16:08 pm
Now that election season has started all sort if silly stuff are taking place.

In Karnataka, ECI officials made astrologers cover up their advertisement posters
()

Since the hand symbol are often used as the symbol of astrologers


The ECI say that the hand symbol is also the election symbol of INC so a poster so an astrologers advertisement poster could be interpreted as an endorsement of INC
()


In AP, ECI officials went into all government buildings to remove pictures of AP CM Naidu saying that Naidu's role as the leader of TDP conflicts with the neutrality of the government during elections.  TDP struck back by going to ECI offices demanding that all electric fans be removed from AP government buildings since an electric fan is the election symbol of TDP rival YSRCP.
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 16, 2019, 05:19:05 am
Political consultancy firm Political Edge  did a poll of Gujarat which is quite out of sync with other media polls.  It has it at

            Seats     Vote share
BJP         16            50%
INC         10            43%

Which is similar to the 2017 Gujarat assembly election implied results
           
            Seats     Vote share
BJP         19            50%
INC+        7            43%

The poll seem to indicate a swing toward INC in tribal areas in the North as well as in the Southern Saurashtra area where  Hardik Patel joining INC seems to have also generated a swing. The rest of Gujarat saw a swing away from INC but the net effect is help INC get ahead in some marginal seats.

This poll seems to indicate a lack of a Modi wave which could be problematic for BJP if true.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 16, 2019, 05:33:07 am
So far the battle of defections of key politician assets (MPs MLAs ex-MPs ex-MLA and children of said key politicians)  is clearly in the favor of BJP but INC scored a few more wins recently.  

1) In places like Gujarat Haryana Maharashtra and Karnataka there has been a stream of INC->BJP defections.  In Karnataka and Maharashtra it has to do with INC-JD(S) and INC-NCP alliances although NCP seems to be holding together and there are signs that BJP-SHS alliance is provoking some possible SHS defections.
2) In AP the stream of defections seems to be INC -> TDP or YSRCP and TDP->YRSCP.  
3) In WB both the INC and to some extent AITC there has been defections to the BJP.
4) In UP there have been defections of Dalit BJP politicians to INC or SP-BSP but a somewhat large number of SP-BSP defections to BJP and INC.  Most of this is due to SP-BSP alliance.
5) In Bihar the defection game seems to be benefiting INC with some key BJP and JD(U) rebels going over to INC.
6) In Odisha there has been INC defections to both BJP and BJD while BJP has a small edge over BJD in the defection game.
7) In Uttarakhand and Assam the defection game has been fairly even between INC and BJP.
8 ) In Telangana some TDP leaders are defecting to INC but there is a large surge of INC to TRS defections.

The main takeaway from the defection game is that BJP seems to have a small momentum edge over INC, YSRCP seems poised to sweep AP, TRS seems poised to sweep Telangana, RJD-INC might do better than expected in Bihar despite polls showing a BJP-JD(U)-LJP sweep, INC out of the game in Odisha, BJP most likely fight INC-JD(S) to a draw in Karnataka, and that in Northern India the Modi wave in the Hindi heartland seems to be intact.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 17, 2019, 04:19:44 pm
BJP CM of Goa Manohar Parrikar passed away after being critically ill for some time.  This comes a a bad time for the BJP in Goa as the current BJP led government is formed by cobbling together various INC splinters/rebels and local BJP sometimes ally and sometimes rival MAG.  With INC splinter GFP already pulling support for the BJP government is pretty much already in minority. 

Now the BJP will have to pick a successor and get a vote of confidence through.  Most likely a series of political and most likely monetary bribes will be needed to get get such a vote through (like getting the lone NCP MLA to go over to the BJP camp.)  One way or another it will look ugly.  But the cost of losing CM position to INC is even worse for the BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 17, 2019, 08:30:57 pm
In WB where current talks between Left Front and INC for an alliance which tentatively has it at  Left front 25 INC 17 has broken down for now with INC in a huff saying that Left Front was not serious about a deal. I do not know why.  Both Left Front and INC have bleed so much support to BJP the last couple of years that even if the Left Front vacated all seats other than a dozen seats that make up the Left Front strongholds I doubt the INC will not win any of them beyond the 4 seats which form the INC strongholds in Northern WB.  I think in the end there will still be at least a partial tactical alliance.  The fact that Left Front and INC are talking about an alliance shows how much both have fallen since 2004 when BJP and AITC were allies fighting Left front.

2004 WB LS elections (AITC alliance with BJP)     
             Contest    Win     Vote share
AITC+       42          1         29.11%
AITC         29          1          21.04%
BJP           13          0           8.06%

Left Front  42        35          50.72%

INC+        41          6          15.15%

AITC then formed an alliance with INC to take on Left Front after the falling out between INC and Left Front in 2008-9 at the national level.

2009 WB LS elections (AITC alliance with INC)
             Contest    Win     Vote share
AITC+      42          26         45.67%
AITC        27          19         31.18%
INC         14            6         13.45%
SUC          1            1           1.04%

Left Front 42         15          43.30%

BJP          42           1           6.14%

Then AITC and INC had a falling out in 2012 after AITC-INC took power at the state level followed by the Modi wave which had the effect of a BJP surge at the expense of Left Front and to some extent INC.

2014 WB LS elections
             Contest    Win     Vote share
AITC         42         34        39.79%

Left Front  42          2         29.94%

INC          42           4          9.69%

BJP           42          2        17.02%


After that a tactical alliance between Left Front and INC were defeated by AITC in the 2016 assembly elections which further weakened both with BJP eating into both and making it the main opposition to AITC.   Assuming that Left Front has an alliance with INC in 2019 my current projection has it at

2019 WB LS elections
             Contest    Win     Vote share
AITC          42        26        38.2%

Left Front+ 42         6         23.9%
Left Front   25         2         13.8%
INC           17         4          10.1%

BJP           42        10         34.8%

where Left Front and INC forming an alliance was just enough to save their strongholds but them losing support to BJP across the board allows BJP to capture a bunch of AITC seats.

It is just amazing how much Left Front and to some extent INC have fallen since 2004.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: FredLindq on March 18, 2019, 02:19:12 am
What has happened with the Left front?! A total collapse. Losing support first to AITC in West Bengal and now to BJP?! A losing Tripura to BJP! Are voters realy moving straight from CPI/CPM to BJP?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 18, 2019, 11:40:58 am
What has happened with the Left front?! A total collapse. Losing support first to AITC in West Bengal and now to BJP?! A losing Tripura to BJP! Are voters realy moving straight from CPI/CPM to BJP?

The Left Front in WB came into power in 1977.  Then despite their Left position at the national level they co-opted the urban middle and industrial classes to create a clientist system to ensure that the Left Front stays in power.  So the Left Front vote base by the 1990s became actually pretty center-right.  What kept the Left front in power was that post-1991 its main rival INC needed the Left Front help to fight against the BJP and did not go all out to dislodge Left Front.  The AITC split from INC to take on Left Front.  AITC too the center-right approach by allying with the BJP which did not generate results in this fairly Leftist state.  The big Left Front mistake was in 2008  when they broke with INC over the USA nuclear deal.    INC then joined AITC who dropped BJP since the INC vote base was larger.  Then AITC shifted dramatically to the left to attack the Left front from the Left flank.  This was wildly successful since by the 2009 the Left Front became a Centrist outfit with both Left wing activists but also a strong Middle and industrial class base.  AITC took the left vote from Left front.  Then the BJP came in to 2014-2019 take the right vote from Left front leaving it a hollow shell.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 18, 2019, 11:52:48 am
The alliance news last couple of days have been a disaster for INC.  First it seems the WB alliance with Left Front has broken down.  Had Left-Front and INC formed an alliance I figured that INC and Left front could retain their 4 and 2 seats from 2014.  Now if both INC and Left front contest everywhere I  figure INC could be down to 2 or even 1 seat and Left Front will be wiped out.  It will be mostly BJP that will gain these seats.  In the end I suspect they will work out at least some tactical deals but they are cutting it close.

In Bihar the RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP-LJD-CPI-CPI(ML) seems close to falling party.  The smaller parties like HAM VIP and CPI(ML) are demanding more seats which RJD is willing to accept by giving up a few seats as long as INC also so as well.  But INC insist on at least 11 seats (RJD is saying that INC will have to go down to as low as 8) and the alliance is at the brink of falling apart with some of the smaller allies going with RJD and others with INC.  This could mean that BJP-JD(U)-LJP will sweep Bihar with 38 or more seats out of 40.   I think in the end they will come up at least a tactical alliance but the perception that the alliance cannot get its act together will harm both RJD and INC.

In J&K it seems for now JKN and INC alliance talks have fell apart.  I think given the Kashmir terrorist attack in Feb the BJP is is going to win the 2 Jammu seats anyway.  But if INC takes on JKN in Kashmir it could throw the race to PDP despite a clear JKN advantage there and if JKN runs in Ladakh it could throw the race to the BJP despite a clear INC advantage there. 

In Delhi it does not look like the INC-AAP alliance talks are going anywhere given the anti-alliance position of the Delhi INC.  Most likely it will not take place and the BJP will sweep Delhi.

In UP all signs are that the SP and BSP vote bases are consolidating while the BJP is holding on to its Upper caste and OBC base.  That leaves INC with very little chance of winning seats beyond the two Gandhis.  INC position of 15+ seats pretty much put off SP-BSP for any alliance talks.   The only question now is will INC play spoiler to  SP-BSP or BJP which would depends on the type of campaign and candidate INC runs.  In a couple of seats where SP-BSP are very weak there might be  chances of anti-BJP tactical voting to help INC from SP-BSP but if INC goes all out to take on SP-BSP this will most likely not take place.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 19, 2019, 07:49:39 am
Times-Now VMR poll has it at

              Seats
NDA         282
UPA         136
Others      125
()

This poll also gave state-by-state prediction.  I added up their numbers and got NDA at 280 and not 282.  I think for Meghalaya they falsely counted ex-BJP allies NPP-UDP as NDA when I count them as pro-NDA.   They did not have polls for A&N and D&D both of which should be 1 BJP each which also makes the numbers add up.

Overall I think the poll assumes a Modi wave in Northern Hindi Upper Caste heavy regions.  I question this but if every poll shows this I might have to accept it as fact.  Some of the small state poll results shows some of the polling for small states are just made up and in a sloppy way that does not even take rudimentary political developments in those states into account.   SAD !!!

State by state are

TN which seems to match what I think should take place
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Kerala seems reasonable
()


AP seems reasonable
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Telangana - the 1 OTH winner is obviously AIMIM.  I find it hard to believe BJP can win 2 seats here.  They have a shot at winning Secundrabad and nowhere else in my view.
()


Karnataka - this seems to assume INC-JD(S) vote base does not jell which is very possible
()


WB - vote share and seat seems reasonable given no INC-Left Front alliance.  I do think INC should hold on to Baharampur for 1 seat
                   Seats       Vote share
AITC              31              39%
BJP                11              32%
Left Front        0               15%
INC                0                 8%


Bihar - seems reasonable, if INC-RJD alliance falls apart it could be a NDA clean sweep
()


Jharkhand - I think UPA should do somewhat better than this
()


Odisha  - this is a shock.  BJP is surging but I assumed that BJD should have the upper hand
()


Assam - poll does not take BJP-AGP alliance into account, still seat share seems reasonable
()


Maharashtra - I am going to stick to my guns and say UPA does better then this as NMS would tactically support UPA and the BJP-SHS war still has scars
()


Gujarat  - vote share seem right.  INC could get a couple of more seats in my view
()


UP - I think SP-BSP-RLD core vote are jelling well so unless we have another Modi wave I say SP-BSP-RLD does a bit better than this
()


Uttarakhand  - lots of Upper Castes voters here so I guess this is somewhat reasonable.  Still 2014 was such a Modi peak I find it hard that BJP can replicate it.
()


MP - seems possible if repeat of a Modi wave
()


Rajasthan - list like MP, seems possible if there is a Modi wave in Hindi belt
()


Chhattisgarh: INC 6 BJP 5


Delhi - seems reasonable - INC-AAP alliance could have beaten back BJP but that is not to be
()


Haryana - find these results hard to believe and seems to imply a Modi wave.  The Haryana  BJP government is not popular.  Agreed INLD imploded but most of the INLD vote should have gone to JJP and not BJP.   Also AAP should do better here than in 2014
()


Punjab - I think overstimulates INC.  AAP vote share too high most of which should go to SAD.  It is true that SAD is in shambles as well but the anti-incumbency vote should see SAD through to win some seats.  
()


J&K.  JKN at 4 seats make no sense. BJP at 2 which is Jammu seems right.  JKN willing all 3 Kashmir seats seems logical.  I find it hard to believe JKN can win Ladakh.  I guess INC and BJP split the Buddhist vote down the middle and the entire INC and PDP Muslim base goes over to JKN ?
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HP - seems reasonable but not consistent with Haryana and Uttarakhand.  If there is a Modi wave in Hindu Upper Caste dominate areas which Haryana and Uttarakhand poll results seem to show then HP should be a BJP sweep as well.  HP to be fair is not that elastic but in theory Modi wave conquers all according to the poll results in other Hindi states.
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Now comes some small states

Chandigarh
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Puducherry
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D&N H
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Lakshadweep
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Tripura - this is a clear mistake/typo.  No way INC vote share can be in the 30s.  It should be in the low single digits.  BJP will win both seats but its main opponent should be Left Front.
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Sikkim - this poll counts SDF as part of NDA.  It is not clear if that is the case.  BJP broke of its alliance with SDF to ally with SKM who then dumped the BJP the day after the alliance was announced.  The state is SDF vs SKM but it is not clear what are the alliances these parties will belong to before and after the election.
()


Arunachal Pradesh
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Goa
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Manipur
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Meghalaya - as mentioned before NPP-UDP (which I assume is the OTH 1) broke off their alliance with BJP but we should view them still as pro-NDA.
()


Mizoram - MNF is an ex-BJP ally and should be viewed as pro-NDA
()


Nagaland - this results shows that for small states this poll is just making things up.  Just like Tripura INC is now down to single digits.   NPF has since broken up with BJP who is allied with NPF splinter NDPP.  This election will be NDA NDPP vs NPF vs INC where INC is in single digits and NDPP winning by a small to medium margin over NPF.
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 19, 2019, 10:56:15 am
In Chhattisgarh it seems BJP has dropped all 10 BJP MP (out of 11 in the state) to prevent a similar meltdown they experienced in the 2018 Chhattisgarh  assembly election at the hands of INC.  That BJP can do this with what they view is limited blow-back from these sitting BJP MPs from running for INC or  as BJP rebels shows the level of discipline and determination the BJP has to winning this election. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 19, 2019, 12:37:41 pm
Ok, so the word from Bihar is that INC-RJD finally reached a "new deal" after some of the smaller allies revolved at the "first deal."  Now it is going to be RJD 19 INC 9 RLSP 4 HAM 2 LJD 2 VIP 1 CPI(ML) 2.  I guess CPI got cut.  CPI(ML) at 2 make sense as there are 2 seats where CPI(ML) is fairly strong (Siwan and Arrah).  LJD at 2 is out of proportion with LJD strength as LJD is just a Sharad Yadav personality party.  Sharad Yadav has a pretty positive image but no real mass base.  I think RJD "overpaid" for LJD but most likely they wanted the image benefits of Sharad Yadav on the stump.

On the WB front I think the Left Front is making one last effort to at have at least a partial alliance with INC.  With alliances in seats where INC and Left Front are strong they are likely to repeat the 2014 performance of INC 4 seats and Left Front 2 seats (out of 42.)  If it is an all out war I project INC at 1 seat and Left Front at 0.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on March 19, 2019, 01:33:57 pm
If Modi wins the election but is denied a majority, how likely is it that another candidate will he able to form a government and become PM?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 19, 2019, 08:18:06 pm
If Modi wins the election but is denied a majority, how likely is it that another candidate will he able to form a government and become PM?

BJP will have to be below 200 seats and even 180 seats.  Then Modi is out with someone in BJP like Maharashtra key BJP leader Nitin Gadkari. 

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Another less likely BJP leader would be ex-UP CM and BJP heavyweight Rajnath Singh
()

Both are in the Modi cabinet today but both have connections with other pro-BJP parities to be able to rally a majority for a NDA government in case BJP falls far short of majority. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 19, 2019, 09:38:05 pm
NDTV has a 5 part series on LS elections in UP.    They point out after the first 2 parts that

Last few election how the opposition unites counts a lot more for victory
()


SP and BSP vote base are very loyal vs INC and BJP
()


2014 UP LS and 2017 UP assembly elections were very similar
()


Then it points out that even if BJP retained their 2014 vote in UP, a SP-BSP alliance will capture more than half of what BJP won in 2014 and if INC comes abroad it gets even worse for BJP
()


And if you do the same but assuming BJP has 2017 UP assembly vote share it is a bit worse for BJP
()


I am not sure if NDTV are going to get to it in part 3 4 and 5 but this sort of analysis is problematic.  I agree SP and BSP vote base are loyal and most likely will gel.   On the other hand a good part of the INC vote are Upper Caste vote which would swing to BJP if they allied with SP-BSP who are based on Yadav Dalit and Muslims.    The best way for INC to hurt BJP is a seat by seat approach with INC backing SP-BSP in some in return for SP-BSP backing INC on others and in many seats INC should run a Upper Caste candidate to split the BJP vote.  It seems, BTW, that INC is NOT doing that in a consistent basis so most likely INC running separately will hurt SP-BSP. But that does not mean that INC should form a perfect alliance with SP-BSP which I feel will also shift Upper Caste INC votes to BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 20, 2019, 08:20:06 pm
BJP CM of Goa Manohar Parrikar passed away after being critically ill for some time.  This comes a a bad time for the BJP in Goa as the current BJP led government is formed by cobbling together various INC splinters/rebels and local BJP sometimes ally and sometimes rival MAG.  With INC splinter GFP already pulling support for the BJP government is pretty much already in minority. 

Now the BJP will have to pick a successor and get a vote of confidence through.  Most likely a series of political and most likely monetary bribes will be needed to get get such a vote through (like getting the lone NCP MLA to go over to the BJP camp.)  One way or another it will look ugly.  But the cost of losing CM position to INC is even worse for the BJP.

New BJP CM installed (who was the old speaker of the Goa assembly.)  The BJP pulled it off by appointed the leader of both MAG and GFP titles of DCM and increased the ministry portfolio of the 3 independents.  This might not be sustainable on the long run but the BJP has to keep this government together until at least the LS election as to not create an image that the BJP is losing ground.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 21, 2019, 02:54:31 pm
Latest alliance news:

1) In Maharashtra it seems SHS splinter NMS has decided not to contest elections but will be "working to get rid of Modi/Shah (Amit Shah who is BJP Prez and key Modi sidekick)"  This must be part of a NCP-NMS understanding so NMS can be backing INC-NCP (to be fair mostly NCP) but INC has plausible  deniability in Northern India  given NMS's position against migrants from UP and Bihar into Maharashtra.

2) In WB the Left Front-INC alliance, even tactical one, has mostly broken down.  With INC and Left Front running candidates in each other's strongholds both will lose seats to BJP.

3) IN J&K INC and JKN formed a tactical alliance in some seats.  Most likely this will ensure that JKN wins the Kashmir seats although in Jammu the BJP is sure to win with or without an alliance between INC and JKN.

4) Even though in most of India the BJP seems to have beaten INC in terms of the alliance game, one area where the BJP was expected to sweep, Northeast India, the entire BJP alliance structure have mostly fallen apart outside Assam.  This is mostly because of the BJP support for the new citizenship bill (which is now mostly on hold)  which would make India open borders for all non-Muslim South Asian.  Northeast India getting non-Muslim migrants and refugees from Bangladesh would bear the brunt of this and have turned BJP allies in Northeast India like NPP against it and are running separately from BJP.  This might throw some sure BJP seats in Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur over to INC.   BJP might lose in Tripura and in Meghalaya it will be a 3 way battle between INC NPP and BJP with NPP most likely coming out ahead.  One way or another the BJP might end up with less seats in Northeast India then what one would have expected a year ago.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 21, 2019, 03:16:46 pm
BJP announced that for the BJP stronghold seat of Gujarat of  Gandhinagar, the BJP candidate will be BJP Prez and Modi's sidekick Amit Shah
()

As opposed the the current MP and 91 year old long time BJP leader LK Advani who now has been "retired" by BJP/Modi
()

LK Advani joined BJS which is proto-BJP in the early 1950s when BJS was formed and became President of BJS as early 1973.  LK Advani and BJP ex-PM Vajpayee took turns in the 1980s and 2013 being the face and leader of BJP.  LK Advani took an active role in promoting Modi within the BJP and in 2002 during the Gujarat riots stopped Vajpayee from removing Modi as CM of Gujarat.  That did not stop Modi from usurping  LK Advani  role as the leader of the BJP in 2013.  After that Modi had to put on a show of respecting LK Advani but I guess now Modi felt that LK Advani has outlived his usefulness as a symbol of respecting the BJP old guard.  So now he has been "retired" without even giving LK Advani the chance to announce his retirement on his own. 

Also with this Modi made it clear that Amit Shah will be his political heir and take over the BJP after Modi retires, which I assume will be in 2024 assuming that Modi keeps on being PM after the 2019 LS elections.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 21, 2019, 03:38:37 pm
More NDTV analysis of UP. 

They point out that UP has more than average Dalits and Muslims
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That Jatav Dalits which forms about half of all Dalits in UP will be behind SP+BSP (because of BSP)
()

Muslims mostly vote SP-BSP (mostly because of SP) but INC has a good chunk.
()

They debunk theories that many including myself that INC running separately helps SP-BSP by splitting the Upper Caste vote from BJP by pointing out that INC only has 12% of the Brahmin vote.
()

I guess my response is that the Upper Caste support base of INC is very uneven.  In some pockets where INC has local Upper Caste leaders a significant part of the Upper Caste vote is with INC and in other pockets the Upper Caste vote is almost zero for INC.  My point is where INC has strong local Upper Caste leaders that INC run them to split the Upper Caste vote from BJP.  In these seats if INC backs SP-BSP the entire INC Upper Caste vote will go BJP.  I think in pockets where the INC vote base is mostly Muslim then INC should just withdraw and back SP-BSP.   Lets be clear this is NOT what INC is doing on the ground so the BJP for sure will gain from the SP-BSP and INC split.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 21, 2019, 07:48:08 pm
Next round of NDTV UP analysis. 

If points out the key role of swings in UP where if you just add SP-BSP (and I assume RLD) 2014 vote you get SP-BSP 41 seats to BJP+ 37 seats but a 5% swing in either direction will make a large difference.
()


Same analysis if INC is in the SP-BSP-RLD alliance (which will of course not take place)
()


It also uses 2018 UP by-elections to show that SP-BSP alliance drove up SP-BSP voters since the alliance means the election is winnable and the higher turnout created a swing
()


I generally disagree with their last point.  What their analysis is missing is the swing is relative to 2014 LS elections where in the first two by-elections very popular BJP incumbents were running.  The by-election basically meant that these popular incumbents were not running.  A better way to measure swing is to compute the the 2017 assembly segment results and then create a baseline.  If you do that you get

Phulpur
2017 assembly segment implied baseline
BJP           43.4%
SP            46.2%
INC            5.8%

2018 by-election result
SP            47.1%  (backed by BSP)
BJP           39.0%
SP rebel     6.6%
INC            2.7% (Upper caste)

Here the SP rebel ate into both the SP-BSP vote as well as the BJP vote.  But what is key here is the INC candidate is Upper caste.  So the INC Muslim vote went over to SP but the INC Upper Caste vote stayed and did not go over to BJP.    The main point here is there was no large "swing" toward SP relative to 2017 assembly results unlike what is claimed by NDTV using 2014 results as the baseline.

We can do the same for
Gorakhpur
2017 assembly segment implied baseline
BJP           43.2%
SP            47.8%
INC            5.5%

2018 by-election
SP            49.3% (backed by BSP)
BJP           47.0%
INC            2.0% (Muslim)

Here by INC running a Muslim candidate most of the INC Upper caste vote went over to BJP and made the race closer than the 2017 assembly election vote implied.  Again unlike what NDTV claims there was no large swing toward SP if you use 2017 assembly results as baseline.

Then come
Kairana
2017 assembly segment implied baseline support by party
BJP     38.2%
BSP    18.5%
SP      23.2%
INC     10.9%
RLD      7.6%

which means 2017 assembly implied baseline should be
RLD    60.2 
BJP     38.2

2018 by-election
RLD   51.5%  (backed in SP-BSP-INC-MD-PECP) (Muslim)
BJP    46.7%

Here if you use the 2017 assembly baseline there was a strong swing against RLD.  There are two reasons.  First of course is the fact that the RLD candidate is Muslim which must have driven away some Hindu (especially Jat) voters.  Also the daughter of the deceased BJP MP was running on the BJP ticket and the sympathy factor must have played a role in this swing.  The key point here is there was no swing toward RLD as NDTV claims if you use 2017 assembly election  result as the baseline.  In fact there was a strong swing away from RLD.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 22, 2019, 01:02:54 pm
In Bihar RJD-INC finally came out with an alliance announcement.  The seat breakdown will be

RJD      19 (LJD leader Sharad Yadav will run on RJD ticket)
INC       9
RLSP     5
HAM      3
VIP       3
CPI(ML) 1 (RJD gave one seat out of its quota of 20 to CPI(ML))

So in the end CPI and CPM got nothing. LJD got only 1 seat which makes sense.  It seems RJD really doubled down on RLSP HAM and VIP ability to capture votes from Kushwaha, Mahadalit and Nishad communities by giving them seats that seems larger than they deserved.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 22, 2019, 01:18:52 pm
I went back and looked at election results by LS seat since 1991 in order to identify bellwether districts.  The basic idea is that in 1991 INC was the largest party, 1996 BJP, 1998 BJP 1999 BJP 2004 INC 2009 INC and 2014 BJP.  I looked for seats where that pattern was followed for for INC and allies and BJP and allies.

Based on that criteria I found 3 bellwethers districts.

Valsad (Gujarat)
Faridabad(Haryana)
Udhampur(Jammu of J&K)

All of them are in the Hindi belt in the North were it has traditionally been BJP vs INC.  If you look at these 3 districts in light of polling in these states it seems pretty clear that in 2019 BJP should win all of them.  This make sense as it is clear that BJP will emerge as the largest party.  Put it another way, the only way the BJP is not the largest party is if INC makes strong gains against BJP in the Hindi North which is very unlikely.

Of these 3 Valsad (Gujarat) most likely comes closest to matching national vote share so this is the seat one should focus on to see if INC can make gains nationally.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 25, 2019, 07:38:58 am
Latest updates

1) In  Bihar even though CPIML) was assigned 1 seat in the RJD-INC alliance it was not deemed enough so it seems CPIML)  will opt out of the alliance and run separately as allies of CPM-CPI.  There will be some impact as this would work to reduce the RJD-INC seat count in an RJD-INC wave election.  Being the election most likely will be a NDA-UPA split of around 30-10 to 25-15 this would not make that big of a difference.

2) Delhi it seems Rahul Gandhi will make a call today on if INC should go with an alliance AAP.  At this stage the delay and infighting over this possible has been so great I doubt it would even work on the ground if it gets cemented. 

3) In Karnataka JD(S) had to give back 1 seat (Bangalore North) back to INC due to lack of candidates.  The INC-JD(S) alliance produced a 20-8 split in seats.  The main problem for JD(S) is that it is only viable in around 6 seats with INC being their main rival in most of them.  So where the two parties had overlap they were shared equally.   But to make sure JD(S) had its quota of 8 seats then 5 of them had to be places where JD(S) was weak.  JD(S) had the them rush to import local INC kingpins to run for JD(S).  For Bangalore North which is a BJP-INC marginal the plan was for JD(S) patriarch and ex-PM Deve Gowda to run but he decided to run in a JD(S) stronghold (this bodes ill for the INC-JD(S) alliance given Deve Gowda's choice) which left this seat without a viable JD(S) candidate which then had to to be handed back to INC.

4) In Jharkhand it seems RJD is not happy with the INC 7 JMM 4 JVM 2 RJD split and is threatening to run separately.  Not sure if they will follow through as RJD is pretty weak these days in Jharkhand.

5) In Telangana TDP has decided not to run and back INC given that pretty much most of its leadership have defected to TRS.  Does not matter that much as TRS will sweep the state.  Most likely it will be TRS 14 AIMIM 1 BJP 1 INC 1 with a good chance the BJP and INC seat will be eaten up by TRS.

6) In AP it seems that JSP which is the successor party to PRP and appeals to the Kapu community is spending all its time to attack YSRCP as opposed to the ruling TDP.  There are talks that the JSP effort is partly backed by TDP to split the opposition vote.  Just like there were talks back in 2009 that PRP was partly support by INC to split the opposition vote from TDP.  The fact that PRP merged into INC after the 2009 elections seems to add to that theory.  JSP was formed by film star Pawan Kalyan who is the brother of film star Chiranjeevi who founded PRP.  JSP backed TDP-BJP in 2014 but this time is running in alliance with BSP and CPI-CPM.  I doubt JSP will win any seats but how they split the vote will determine if this election is an YSRCP victory or YSRCP landslide.

7) In Maharashtra the INC-NCP alliance was announce with the support of BVA and SWP.  PWPI and JD(S) will also back the alliance even though they will not get any seats.  Overall the alliance seems to be in bad shape with loads of infighting with significant number of defections to BJP-SHS.  The INC-NCP hope has to be that NMS support and BJP-SHS hostility at the ground level could somehow prevent another BJP-SHS landslide.  I actually think these factors will help to do so despite appearances that INC-NCP are in bad shape.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 25, 2019, 07:45:31 am
Rahul Gandhi promises minimum income of around $170 per family if INC is elected to power.  Main problem here is that would mean around 20% of the families in India would be eligible so something like this will blow up the budget.    Also there are large number of families that have income above that in the informal sector so I am not sure how it is going to work.  Of course since there is pretty much no chance of INC coming to power so there is no reason why Rahul Gandhi cannot promise this, and a pony while we are at it, for each Indian family. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 25, 2019, 11:36:23 am
So in the end despite talks in UP Bihar WB Jharkhand TN Maharashtra Telengana  the only place UPA and Left parties formed an alliance was in TN.  Both INC and Left parties (CPI CPM) have an exaggerated view of their strength mostly based on past strong performances that in many cases were from decades ago.  To some extent the INC approach is rational in the sense that if INC walks away this LS election with 100+ seats it can live to fight another day in 2024.  The Left parties are in terminal crisis.  They have been beaten to a weak third place in WB by the BJP, ousted by the BJP from its stronghold of Tripura and losing ground to the BJP Kerala at a rapid pace where the state will soon see the coming of a 3 party system (INC+, Left Front, and BJP+).  Elsewhere the Left parties are not anywhere close to being to win LS seats on their own.   

Being reduced to low single digit in terms of seats (most likely zero everywhere expect for ~3 in TN and ~3 in Kerala) could mean that the Left parties will become irrelevant at the national level and only some factor at the state level in Kerala and Tripura.  I have no idea why the Left Parties are not willing to accept some crumbs from the UPA just to survive because the alternative is extinction.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 26, 2019, 07:09:50 am
Latest CVoter poll on LS elections which has it at

          Seat                  Vote Share
NDA    261(BJP 214)       42.0%
UPA    143(INC 91)         30.4%

()

This poll has BJP sweeping the Hindi North but getting hammered in UP by SP-BSP and in Punjab by INC.  It also has BJP defeating BJD in Orissa and a shock TDP victory over YSRCP in AP (I guess YSP will split the anti-TDP vote).  It also seems that in Maharashtra the NDA victory in terms of seats is not as large as one would expect.

BJP at 214 should mean that Modi makes it as PM but I am sure if I were him I prefer something over 220.  INC at 91 is not quite enough for Rahul Gandhi to claim that INC is on its way back to recovery from the 2014 elections.  I am sure he want it to be above 100.

I am working on my own bottoms up seat by seat projection which currently comes out pretty close to this.  My projection and this poll share the attribute of a large NDA vote ahead but not such a massive seat lead as one would expect from other polls.   There are still some alliances not worked out yet (AAP and INC in Delhi, AAP and JJP in Haryana, JSP and BSP alliance Telengana etc etc) and once they are locked up I can finish my model and publish what I have on a state by state level.  At a high level right now it has

          Seat                  Vote Share
NDA    247(BJP 205)       39.5%
UPA    155(INC 102)       30.5%

Which seems very similar to this poll although there are significant differences at the state level.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: FredLindq on March 26, 2019, 12:49:11 pm
I do not get the UP figures. They seem all the same IF there is and is not an SP+BSP alliance.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 26, 2019, 01:30:47 pm
I do not get the UP figures. They seem all the same IF there is and is not an SP+BSP alliance.

You are giving this poll too much credit in terms of professionalism.  These types of mistakes (SP and BSP vote share when contesting separately add up exactly to the SP-BSP vote share in alliance (what about RLD?) ) are fairly typical of mistake in polls in India.

While we are on the topic, other mistakes in the poll are

Jharkhand: JVM is part of UPA alliance so why are they being listed separately; also the vote share of Others beyond UPA NDA and JVM is 0% ???
WB: CPM is part of Left Front so is the CPM vote share for CPM only or Left Front
Assam: not necessary a mistake but AIUDF at 3.4% is absurd.  Even though they are contesting 3 out of 14 seats (tastily backing INC in the rest) given how strong they are in Lower Assam they should be at least 7%-8% if not low double digits just based on those 3 seats.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: FredLindq on March 26, 2019, 02:28:06 pm
I have tried to find the figures for the seats in every state. Have you got it?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 26, 2019, 04:23:52 pm
I have tried to find the figures for the seats in every state. Have you got it?

ECI has reports of every election (assembly as well).  This is the 2014 LS election one

https://eci.gov.in/files/file/2785-constituency-wise-detailed-result/


This is a link of a table of all reports of LS and assembly elections
https://eci.gov.in/statistical-report/statistical-reports/


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Ishan on March 26, 2019, 05:53:56 pm
Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 26, 2019, 08:08:29 pm
Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

I actually think Rahul Gandhi has grown a lot as a candidate since 2014 and is now fairly effective on the stump and on social media.  His main weakness is that he is an ineffective leader.  In short he does not have a killer instinct with a clear purpose.  Whatever you can say about Modi-Shah combine, but their focus on victory conveys a clear purpose and vision.  Rahul Gandhi projects an image of indecisiveness and focused on backing INC sycophants at the state level to the point of damaging INC election potential in key states.  Not being able to make a call on the INC-APP alliance in Delhi is another example of this.

Another famous story about Rahul Gandhi which I think is mostly true given how many times it was told by several source has to how the INC lost control of the Northeast.  In 2014 LS elections BJP surged in Assam but INC still held the upper hand in the rest of the Northeast.  One up and coming INC superstar in Assam was Himanta Biswa Sarma
()

To get ready for the tough battle in the 2016 Assam assembly election and other Northeastern states, there was a key meeting in 2015 where Himanta Biswa Sarma presented to Rahul Gandhi his proposed INC strategy to hold on the the Northeast.  Based on various sources Rahul Gandi was not paying attention in the meeting and spent the entire meeting feeding his dog. 

After this Himanta Biswa Sarma defected to the BJP and was put in charge of the BJP operation to takeover the Northeast.   In the 2016-2018 pretty much all Northeast state fell to BJP and allies which was largely in part due to the organizational skills of Himanta Biswa Sarma.  To be fair part of the reason for his defection has to be signs that the BJP is in the ascendancy after the 2014 LS election and the key role of federal subsidies in the Northeast.  But Rahul Gandhi lack of the killer instinct clearly play a party.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: FredLindq on March 27, 2019, 02:12:09 am
I have tried to find the figures for the seats in every state. Have you got it?

ECI has reports of every election (assembly as well).  This is the 2014 LS election one

https://eci.gov.in/files/file/2785-constituency-wise-detailed-result/


This is a link of a table of all reports of LS and assembly elections
https://eci.gov.in/statistical-report/statistical-reports/

I medan for the läst. C voter pill.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 27, 2019, 06:58:09 am
I medan for the läst. C voter pill.

I can only find this

NDA seats by state
()

UPA seats by state
()

Some thoughts on this poll.  I would argue this poll is sort of negative for BJP.  Not because of the absolute seat count has NDA below majority but it is a slight decline of 3 seats for NDA relative to a similar Cvoter poil in early March.

Here is my rule of thumb.  If a state in question had an assembly election within the year (MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Karnataka) most polls tend to underestimate the ruling party there.  If the state in question had an assembly election within 2 years (Gujarat, UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand) then polls tend to be par.  If the state had assembly elections more than 2 years ago then polls tend to overestimate the incumbent party at the state level due to anti-incumbency.

If so then all things equal most polls should be overestimating BJP.  The only caveat would be if there is some sort of national wave in favor of one side (usually the incumbent) like 1971 1984 1999 and 2014.  But if that were the case then we should find these national polls over time to move further and further in the NDA direction.  We need more data as other polls comes in but the first set of polls done during the campaign period seems to indicate a waveless election which would be bad for BJP in the sense that they will under-perform polls.  One possible theory would be that this election will see a partial wave for Modi just in the Hindi North which is just enough to push them past INC in key BJP-INC swing states like MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 27, 2019, 07:59:24 am
Looks like there are hectic behind the scenes talks between INC and AAP for an alliance in Delhi.  Head of Delhi INC and former CM Sheila Diksh**t is opposed to a deal (mostly due to animosity between her and AAP CM Arvind Kejriwal who ran against her in 2013 and defeated her in her district) but she seems to have accepted that Rahul Gandhi is keen as is a majority of the Delhi INC grass roots.

The INC offer of deal would be AAP 3 INC 3 and 1 independent backed by both.  AAP seems to be saying yes to this BUT that must be matched with an INC-AAP alliance in both Punjab and Haryana where AAP gets 2 seats each.  In Haryana APP is pushing for an 3 way alliance of INC-JJP-AAP where JJP seems to be rejecting.  In Punjab the INC CM Amarinder Singh already said there is no way INC can form an alliance with AAP and the Haryana INC does not seem keen to allowing AAP into an alliance and have AAP poach its vote base.  AAP's position seems to be that if the alliance is limited to only Delhi then it will have to be AAP 5 INC 2 which INC outright rejects as the support base INC now has (which overlaps with AAP) is now at rough parity.

I think at this stage INC is better off not getting an alliance.  I know there are polls that show that a AAP-INC alliance will win 6-7 seats where as separately BJP will win all 7.  I think what INC has to consider is the buildup of anti-incumbency toward the AAP and part of the INC vote base are now anti-AAP.  An AAP-INC alliance will drive these voters over to BJP.  With AAP openly attacking INC last few weeks the environment in Delhi poisoned enough that I am not sure there is time to make the AAP-INC alliance gel.  If the alliance was formed back in Jan or Feb that would be a different story.  I suspect even if an alliance is formed  the AAP-INC bloc would be lucky to win 2-3 seats.  Overall I think INC at this stage is better off just fighting by itself and use this election to re-take the anti-BJP vote from AAP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 27, 2019, 08:56:09 pm
A couple of funny/interesting stories from AP

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lok-sabha-elections-2019-in-andhra-pradeshs-araku-constituency-congress-pits-daughter-against-father-2012164

Long time INC leader Kishore Chandra Deo recently quit the INC to run for the TDP in the fairly tribal Araku seat which he won in 2009 and lost by a large margin in 2014 to YSRCP
()

What the INC did was to instead nominate  Kishore Chandra Deo's daugher Shruti Devi
()

So this race will witness a father vs daughter battle.


Another funny story is

https://english.sakshi.com/andhrapradesh-politics/2019/03/26/tdps-cheap-gimmick-ka-paul-fields-ysrcp-namesakes-to-confuse-voters

One of the many new parties to run this year in AP is the little known Praja Shanti Party.  What is interesting is the party symbol
()

Looks a like the YSRCP party symbol
()

Then if you look at the candidates that Praja Shanti Party nominates, their names are identical to the name of the YSRCP candidate in the said district (be it LS seat or assembly seat).  In seems by inference that this is dummy party set up by TDP to split the YSRCP vote.
()


This trick actually took place in 2014.  In Chhattisgarh  former INC Chhattisgarh CM Ajit Jogi (who have since split from INC and formed the JCC with an alliance with BSP) was running as the INC candidate against BJP's Chandu Lal Sahu.  It seems Ajit Jogi found a dozen namesakes of  Chandu Lal Sahu to run and split his vote and nearly won.  Note how many "Chandu Lal Sahu" ran in this district.
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on March 28, 2019, 01:51:50 am
Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Ishan on March 28, 2019, 07:17:34 am
Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein
LOL, my parents say that he is
Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

I actually think Rahul Gandhi has grown a lot as a candidate since 2014 and is now fairly effective on the stump and on social media.  His main weakness is that he is an ineffective leader.  In short he does not have a killer instinct with a clear purpose.  Whatever you can say about Modi-Shah combine, but their focus on victory conveys a clear purpose and vision.  Rahul Gandhi projects an image of indecisiveness and focused on backing INC sycophants at the state level to the point of damaging INC election potential in key states.  Not being able to make a call on the INC-APP alliance in Delhi is another example of this.

Another famous story about Rahul Gandhi which I think is mostly true given how many times it was told by several source has to how the INC lost control of the Northeast.  In 2014 LS elections BJP surged in Assam but INC still held the upper hand in the rest of the Northeast.  One up and coming INC superstar in Assam was Himanta Biswa Sarma
()

To get ready for the tough battle in the 2016 Assam assembly election and other Northeastern states, there was a key meeting in 2015 where Himanta Biswa Sarma presented to Rahul Gandhi his proposed INC strategy to hold on the the Northeast.  Based on various sources Rahul Gandi was not paying attention in the meeting and spent the entire meeting feeding his dog. 

After this Himanta Biswa Sarma defected to the BJP and was put in charge of the BJP operation to takeover the Northeast.   In the 2016-2018 pretty much all Northeast state fell to BJP and allies which was largely in part due to the organizational skills of Himanta Biswa Sarma.  To be fair part of the reason for his defection has to be signs that the BJP is in the ascendancy after the 2014 LS election and the key role of federal subsidies in the Northeast.  But Rahul Gandhi lack of the killer instinct clearly play a party.   
Dumb i***t


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 28, 2019, 12:46:53 pm
TRS's leader KCR claims that BJP will not cross 150 seats and INC will not cross 100 seats.

https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/bjp-will-not-win-more-than-150-lok-sabha-seats-congress-not-more-than-100-ktr-1553771784749.html

He is trying to create a narrative that a non-BJP non-INC government is possible.   Math shows that it is not.

Using my current model, there are 193 seats where BJP and INC occupy first and second place.  There is another 181 seats where BJP is first or second but the other party is not INC.   There are 69 seats where INC is first or second but the other party is not BJP.   For KCR's claims to be true (BJP plus INC is at 250 seats or less) out of the 250 seats where BJP or INC is in the running but not against each other (181+69) BJP or INC has to win only 57 out of them or around 20% since BJP plus INC will win 193 seats for sure between them.  A strike rate of 20% when either BJP or INC is in the running versus another non-BJP non-INC is very unlikely.  A strike rate of 50% would put BJP plus INC at 318 which I think is more where the election will come down to. 

For KCR's vision of a majority that excludes BJP and INC a huge black swan event must take place.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) on March 28, 2019, 01:04:40 pm
TRS's leader KCR claims that BJP will not cross 150 seats and INC will not cross 100 seats.

https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/bjp-will-not-win-more-than-150-lok-sabha-seats-congress-not-more-than-100-ktr-1553771784749.html

He is trying to create a narrative that a non-BJP non-INC government is possible.   Math shows that it is not.

Using my current model, there are 193 seats where BJP and INC occupy first and second place.  There is another 181 seats where BJP is first or second but the other party is not INC.   There are 69 seats where INC is first or second but the other party is not BJP.   For KCR's claims to be true (BJP plus INC is at 250 seats or less) out of the 250 seats where BJP or INC is in the running but not against each other (181+69) BJP or INC has to win only 57 out of them or around 20% since BJP plus INC will win 193 seats for sure between them.  A strike rate of 20% when either BJP or INC is in the running versus another non-BJP non-INC is very unlikely.  A strike rate of 50% would put BJP plus INC at 318 which I think is more where the election will come down to. 

For KCR's vision of a majority that excludes BJP and INC a huge black swan event must take place.

Even in that case, since BJP and INC will almost certainly come in first and second, wouldn't the most likely scenario be still a BJP or INC government, just propped up by a ton of regional/minor parties?

Would a coalition of literally all regional/minor parties against BJP and INC even make sense?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on March 28, 2019, 07:10:11 pm
Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein
LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Ses on March 28, 2019, 08:00:23 pm
Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein
LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well

Cause they’re nationalists lol.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 28, 2019, 08:09:31 pm
TRS's leader KCR claims that BJP will not cross 150 seats and INC will not cross 100 seats.

https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/bjp-will-not-win-more-than-150-lok-sabha-seats-congress-not-more-than-100-ktr-1553771784749.html

He is trying to create a narrative that a non-BJP non-INC government is possible.   Math shows that it is not.

Using my current model, there are 193 seats where BJP and INC occupy first and second place.  There is another 181 seats where BJP is first or second but the other party is not INC.   There are 69 seats where INC is first or second but the other party is not BJP.   For KCR's claims to be true (BJP plus INC is at 250 seats or less) out of the 250 seats where BJP or INC is in the running but not against each other (181+69) BJP or INC has to win only 57 out of them or around 20% since BJP plus INC will win 193 seats for sure between them.  A strike rate of 20% when either BJP or INC is in the running versus another non-BJP non-INC is very unlikely.  A strike rate of 50% would put BJP plus INC at 318 which I think is more where the election will come down to. 

For KCR's vision of a majority that excludes BJP and INC a huge black swan event must take place.

Even in that case, since BJP and INC will almost certainly come in first and second, wouldn't the most likely scenario be still a BJP or INC government, just propped up by a ton of regional/minor parties?

Would a coalition of literally all regional/minor parties against BJP and INC even make sense?

It would not and KCR knows it.  All KCR is doing is to build a narrative that there can be a government at the center without BJP nor INC.  For the LS election KCR is fearful that the it becomes polarized between BJP and INC and his TRS vote would splinter into tactical voting for either BJP or INC.  To hold his flock together he need to tell them: Vote for TRS and and we can build a government of national unity without BJP nor INC.   The fact that mathematically this is not possible is really not an issue for KCR.     


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on March 28, 2019, 11:16:00 pm
Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein
LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well

Cause they’re nationalists lol.

No they just hate the Congress party more




Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 29, 2019, 06:52:26 am
Bookies in Nagpur which is the largest city of the Eastern region of Vidarbha in Mahabharata (this region has on again and off again sentiments of separatism from the  Mahabharata which is seen as dominated by Mumbai) has current odds of the   Mahabharata  LS results of BJP-SHS at 28-30 out of 48 vs 41 in 2014.  That is about where I have it and I think it could get worse for BJP-SHS if the alliances is not working on the ground.  Overall that BJP-SHS at 28-30 in Maharashtra is not that great for Modi and would imply that the NDA will not get a majority on its own and that the BJP would be something like 200 seats which would be the danger zone for Modi.  The same bookies have betting odds of NDA getting around 243 seats which is pretty consistent with  JP-SHS at 28-30 in Maharashtra.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Ishan on March 29, 2019, 07:08:45 am
Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein
LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well

Cause they’re nationalists lol.

No they just hate the Congress party more



My parents support Congress because they hate Modi and they dislike Ganahi.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on March 29, 2019, 09:30:21 am
Why is Rahul Gandhi a bad candidate?

He is a total moron in every way and would make Trump look like Einstein
LOL, my parents say that he is
Dumb i***t

Almost everyone I know who follows Indian politics thinks the same .


Even among the people who I know are not only hardcore democratic supporters but part of the Bernie wing of the party all strongly support Modi as well

Cause they’re nationalists lol.

No they just hate the Congress party more



My parents support Congress because they hate Modi and they dislike Ganahi.


My parents do like Modi also and believe he is doing a good job too . It may be hard for people on this forum to believe but compared to the vast majority of my family I am not a Modi fan , they are far bigger supporters of Modi than either my parents or I am .




Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 29, 2019, 10:13:05 am

My parents do like Modi also and believe he is doing a good job too . It may be hard for people on this forum to believe but compared to the vast majority of my family I am not a Modi fan , they are far bigger supporters of Modi than either my parents or I am .


Well, I think this election the caste polarization will become more extreme.  A lot of Dalit and Tribal support for BJP from 2014 will swing away from BJP even as Upper Caste and higher OBCs are swinging toward BJP.  Most Indians that live in the USA are Upper Caste so obviously they will be for Modi and more so this year than in 2014.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 30, 2019, 05:20:04 am
It seems talks between INC and AAP has progressed to situation where an alliance is possible in Delhi where it will be AAP 4 INC 3.  The main sticking point seems to be which seats goes to which party.  If there is an alliance there will be rebels on both sides that will contest against the official party of the alliance given the hostilely of certain factions of the AAP and INC toward each other.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 30, 2019, 05:47:45 am
Cvoter tracking poll seems to indicate that national security issues are falling in salience over the last couple of week 

https://in.reuters.com/article/india-election-poll/boost-to-bjp-from-terror-strike-waning-ahead-of-election-poll-idINKCN1RB05J?il=0

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/editorcharts/INDIA-ELECTION-POLL/0H001PBLJ5HT/index.html

In mid Feb the key issue was economic for around 60% of the electorate and national security around 3%.  After the Kashmir terrorist attack and Indian response it became around 45% for economic issues and 27% for national security in early March.   By end of March this reverted to 53% economic issues and 15% for national security.  If this continues this might converge toward a "wave-less" election which I feel the fundamentals given the state level election cycles is not positive for BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 30, 2019, 06:10:41 am
Wikipedia has some nice maps of NDA and UPA seat sharing so far

NDA alliance map
()

By state where it is not just all BJP

Assam: BPF will contest Bodo area, AGP has poor seat allocation with 2 out of 3 AGP seats are in AIUDF strongholds and the other in an INC stronghold
()

Bihar
()

Jharkhand: AJSU only got one seat but at least it is a winnable seat
()

Kerala: BDJS contesting in areas where Ezhava are numerous
()

Maharashtra: BJP has more seats in Eastern Maharashtra and SHS has more seats in Mumbai and Western Maharashtra
()

Punjab: BJP has Hindu seats and SAD have Sikh seats
()

TN: AIADMK used to be strong in Southern TN but that is where AIADMK splinter AMMK is strong so AIADMK gave away a lot of Southern TN seats to their allies.
()



For UPA states which where it is not just INC

Bihar
()

Jharkhand
()

Karnataka: JD(S) seats in Southern Karnataka where it is strong
()

Maharashtra:  INC stronger in Eastern Maharashtra while NCP stronger in Mumbai/Western Maharashtra
()

Wikipedia does not seem to have the map for TN but I found a map on the Hindu that has it
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 30, 2019, 06:53:39 am
Poll Eyes poll for Bihar done earlier in March

            Seats     Vote share
NDA        28          42%
UPA         12          39%

Which is not that bad of a poll for UPA.  With the vote share so close lots of seats are tossups according to this poll.  It has Strong UPA 6 Lean UPA 2 Tossup 16 Lean NDA 13 Strong NDA 3 so this poll assumes that NDA will carry most of the Tossups.  If not then the Bihar election could move further toward UPA.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 30, 2019, 07:10:01 am
Other Poll Eyes/Political Edge polls

MP
            Seats     Vote share
BJP         16          47%
INC         13          47%

Which seems to match the 2018 assembly election results.  This seems to imply no Modi wave.  It has Strong INC 3 Lean INC 6 Tossup 8 Lean BJP 8 Strong BJP 4.


Haryana
              Seats     Vote share
BJP            8             46%
INC           2              37%
INLD         0               9%
Others       0               8%  (BSP, AAP, JJP)

This poll seem to imply the complete implosion of the 2014 INLD vote which shifted to both BJP and INC.  Seats share and INLD vote share looks right.  I think BSP AAP JJP will do better than this at the expense of both BJP and INC.


Jharkhand

            Seat Count    Vote share
UPA           9                 51%
NDA          5                 42%

UPA is strong in Northern Jharkand and NDA stronger in Southern Jharkhand.  It has the seat breakdown at Strong UPA 2 Weak UPA 5 Tossup 4 Weak NDA 2 Strong NDA 1


Odisha

            Seats        Vote share
BJD        18               50%
BJP          2               25%
INC          1               16%

Which is a shocking victory for BJD.  The CW is that the BJP should make large gains based on the anti-incumbency toward BJD as well as the fall of the INC vote.   The INC vote did fall (but somehow wins a seat? perhaps it is based on INC alliance with JMM that wins a tribal seat) but it seems that it was the BJD that gains and not BJP.
 
Their poll of Gujarat in Mid March also shows a "poor" result for BJP
Political consultancy firm Political Edge  did a poll of Gujarat which is quite out of sync with other media polls.  It has it at

            Seats     Vote share
BJP         16            50%
INC         10            43%

Which is similar to the 2017 Gujarat assembly election implied results
           
            Seats     Vote share
BJP         19            50%
INC+        7            43%

The poll seem to indicate a swing toward INC in tribal areas in the North as well as in the Southern Saurashtra area where  Hardik Patel joining INC seems to have also generated a swing. The rest of Gujarat saw a swing away from INC but the net effect is help INC get ahead in some marginal seats.

This poll seems to indicate a lack of a Modi wave which could be problematic for BJP if true.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 30, 2019, 07:11:29 am
Poll Eyes/Political Edge seems to be Today's Chanakya in reverse.  Today's Chanakya polls always skew in favor of BJP (except for the 2018 assembly election cycle) and Poll Eyes/Political Edge  seems to have a skew against BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 30, 2019, 07:56:13 am
In Odisha it seems INC have formed an alliance with JMM CPM CPI.  There are no details yet so this could unravel.  But if true INC will not win any seats as a result, in my view, but it will play up the narrative that the INC is a viable party in Odisha which implicitly hurts BJP and helps BJD.  The way the BJP can defeat BJD is for the INC to collapse and hope all the anti-BJD INC voters swing over to BJP.

In other good news for INC, in Assam AIUDF has announced that it will only run in the 3 seats it won in 2014.  It will not endorse  INC in the rest of Assam but that is mostly tactical since an open AIUDF support for INC will drive all INC Ahom Hindu voters to BJP.  This will still be a double edged sword for INC since it will clearly pick up the all Muslim AIUDF vote but even without an open AIUDF support for INC in the rest of Assam some INC Ahom Hindu voters will still vote BJP.  I think this is a net win for INC but not as much as what the 2014 vote share will suggest.  And in the 3 AIUDF seats it is critical that INC continues the attack on AIUDF as any signs that INC is going soft on AIUDF would again drive the INC vote toward BJP-AGP and could cost AIUDF a seat.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 31, 2019, 09:03:50 am
Rahul Gandhi will also contest from Wayanad in Kerala in addition to his seat in Amethi in UP.  It seems that INC leaders in the South have been pressuring Rahul Gandhi to contest in the South to show that INC is an all India party.  Wayanad seems to be in the trisection between TN, Kerala, and Karnataka.  It is a somewhat lean INC seat in Kerala but with the tide in Kerala clearly going against Left Front this should be a easy win for INC one way or another.

Even though it is pretty clear that Rahul Gandhi should win from his seat in UP of Amethi this move I think will play up the BJP as well as SP-BSP message that INC is in a downswing in UP and Rahul Gandhi is running away from a fight there.

I think what Rahul Gandhi should do is to not contest in Amethi, leaving that seat to his sister Priyanka Gandhi and instead run in Varanasi against Modi.  He will lose but a key part of the BJP election campaign is to unleash Modi across India. Rahul Gandhi running in Varanasi would act to pin Modi down somewhat to make sure he does not lose which weakens the BJP overall.  This act of personal sacrifice and showing that he is not afraid of a tough and most likely losing fight will galvanize the INC vote across India.  There is not real loss for Rahul Gandhi. He is not going to be PM anyway after this election so I am not sure what is the value of him being in the LS.  He can always get in via a by-election in a year or two.   It is unlikely Rahul Gandhi will take my advice. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 31, 2019, 01:35:01 pm
VPA poll for some states.  I will provide change from VPA poll in early March where VPA covered them in early Mar.  Overall slight bad news for BJP as the trend seems to be a slight shift away from BJP since early March.

Karnataka
             Seats        Vote share
BJP         17(+2)          46% (-0.8%)
UPA        10(-3)           48% (-1.0%)  (INC 8 JD(S) 2)
INC rebel  1

Telangana
                  Seats           Vote share
TRS              15                 44.62%
INC                1                 30.01%
BJP                0                 13.79%
AIMIM            1                  4.70%
JSP-CPI-CPM  0                   1.75%

Goa: BJP 2 INC 0

Kerala
             Seats        Vote share
UPA         16               43%
Left           3               32%
NDA          1               20%

Bihar
             Seats        Vote share
NDA        29(-5)         47.9%(-1.1%) (BJP 14 JD(U) 12 LJP 3)
UPA        11(+5)        41.2%(+3.2%) (RJD 8 INC 2 CPI(ML) 1)

Odisha: BJP 13 BJD 8

Jharkhand: NDA 7 (BJP 7) UPA 7(INC 4 JMM 2 JVM 1)

WB: AITC 28 BJP 13 INC 1 Left 0

Gujarat
             Seats    Vote share
BJP          24(-)       53%(-)
INC           2(-)       40%(-)

Maharashtra: NDA 39 UPA 9

Rajasthan: BJP 20(-) INC 5(-)

Punjab
             Seats         Vote share
INC          10(+3)      43.1%
NDA           1(-4)       33.7% (SAD 1 BJP 0)
AAP           1             14.1%
Others       1(+1)        9.1%

Uttarakhand: BJP 5 INC 0

HP: BJP 4 INC 0

Delhi
             Seats         Vote share
BJP            7            42.04%
AAP           0             32.30%
INC           0             18.90%

Haryana: BJP 9(-) INC 1 (+1) JJP 0(-1)

Chhattisgarh: INC 9(-) BJP 2(-)

MP: BJP 24(+2) INC 5(-2)

Northeast: BJP to win 12 out of 25 seats (not clear how other BJP allies or pro-BJP parties will do)

For UP they said there are tons of tossups so they have it at

NDA ahead in 30
SP-BSP-RLD ahead in 24
INC ahead in 3
PSP (SP splinter) ahead in 1
NDA/SP-BSP-RLD neck-to-neck in 21 seast
NDA/INC neck-to-neck in 3 seats

They said they see a real surge for INC due to Priyanka Gandhi and it is not clear if that is hurting BJP or SP-BSP-RLD.  The poll says that Priyanka Gandhi will become a powerful political figure in the future based on these results.

In terms of vote share they have it at

SP-BSP-RLD       39.37%(-1.33%)
NDA                   38.31%(-4.09%
INC                    16.33%(+5.33%)
PSP                      2.30%(NA)

Overall while it is clear NDA is ahead the momentum is ether neutral or slightly running against BJP.  If there is a Modi wave you should see the momentum move toward BJP.  


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 31, 2019, 03:17:58 pm
News Nation poll for UP

                      Seats    Vote Share
SP-BSP-RLD     42          39%
BJP-AD            37          37%
INC                  1           12%
()

Which means that INC loses one of its seat which I assume is Rahul Gandhi's Amethi seat.  Of course if INC vote share is at 12% I really doubt Rahul Gandhi will lose.  Overall the main narrative here is the surprisingly high vote share for INC (if you ignore the fact that it projects that INC is down to 1 seat)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on March 31, 2019, 08:46:44 pm
ABP-Nielsen state polls

Gujarat: BJP 20 INC 6
()

WB: AITC 31 BJP 8 INC 3
()

Odisha: BJP 13 BJD 7 INC 1
()

Jharkhand: NDA 9 UPA 5
()

Rajasthan: BJP 19 INC 6
()

MP: BJP 24 INC 5
()

Chhattisgarh: INC 8 BJP 3
()

Haryana: BJP 8 INC 2

Punjab: INC 9 NDA 2 Others 2 (I assume AAP)

HP: BJP 4 INC 0
()

Uttarakhand: BJP 4 INC 1
()

J&K: JKN 3 BJP 2 INC 1
()

Maharashtra: NDA 37 UPA 11
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 01, 2019, 07:08:28 am
Rahul Gandhi has made the call to not have an alliance with AAP in Delhi. With that pretty much all the major alliances (or not) decisions have been made.  There are a few minor ones (like will SBSP go it alone in UP or stay in NDA and will NISHAD which represents the Nishad caste (surprise surprise) join NDA now that they have broken with SP-BSP-RLD, will RLP go it alone or go with INC in Rajasthan) but the impact will be minor.  With that I should be able to put out my initial bottoms up seat and vote share projection soon.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 01, 2019, 02:56:15 pm
My first cut bottoms up projection by state.  

My basic approach is to view the election as a confederation of state elections.  The main driver being state level anti-incumbency.   If a state just held an assembly election then I tend to think polls underestimate the incumbent party,  if the state held assembly elections 1-2 years ago then I think polls tend to be par.  If the state had assembly elections 4-5 years ago then I tend to think polll overestimate the incumbent party.  

Based on that principle I created separate models every state to generate swings and also take into account key changes in candidates and alliance dynamics.   I did not take into account rebels yet so the vote share calculations are mostly overestimating the dominate parties.

J&K:
JKN has tactical alliance with INC and will sweep Kashmir.  BJP hods Jammu with ease.

2019
NDA:       2 BJP        34.4%
UPA:        1 INC       28.6%
Others     3 JKN       16.7%
               0 PDP       14.0%

2014
NDA:       3 (3 BJP)               32.6%
UPA:       0 (0 NC, 0 INC)       34.3%
Others:   3 PDP                     20.7%


HP:
Mostly replicates 2017 assembly elections, high number of Upper Caste voters gives BJP a sweep.

2019
NDA: 4 BJP     53.0%
UPA: 0 INC     44.1%

2014
NDA: 4 BJP      53.9%
UPA: 0 INC      41.1%


Haryana:
INLD split with splinter JPP helps both BJP and INC.  BJP splinter LSP does not make that much of an impact other than in the seat of the LSP leader.

2019
NDA:      7 BJP              39.8%
UPA:      3 INC              28.7%
Others:  0  BSP-LSP        7.5%
             0 INLD              7.3%
             0 JJP                 9.2%
             0 AAP               4.8%

2014:
NDA:     7 (7 BJP 0 HJC)        40.9%
UPA:     1 INC                       23.0%
Others: 2 INLD                     24.4%
            0 BSP                        4.6%
            0 AAP                        4.3%


Punjab:
AAP has lost a lot of ground since 2017 assembly elections.  They could have gone to SAD to hurt INC.  But most of that support seems to gone to AAP splinter PEP which split the anti-INC vote to help INC.

2019
NDA:     3 (3 SAD, 0 BJP)     35.9%
UPA:    10 INC                     39.0%
Others: 0 BSP-PEP-LIF         12.0%
            0 AAP                       9.6%

2014:
NDA:     6 (4 SAD, 2 BJP)  35.2%
UPA:     3 INC                  33.2%
Others: 4 AAP                  24.5%
            0 BSP                   1.9%


Delhi
AAP landslide victory of 2015 assembly elections is now a distant memory with AAP administration losing a lot of credibility.    AAP loses support  back to INC which means BJP sweeps the polls again

2019
NDA:    7 BJP     43.5%
UPA:     0 INC    23.6%
Others: 0 AAP    28.1%

2014:
NDA:    7 BJP   46.6%
UPA:     0 INC  15.2%
Others: 0 AAP  33.1%


Uttarakhand
Results will mostly mimic 2017 assembly election with BJP losing some ground due to anti-incumbency which is partly mitigated by Modi's popularity in the Hindu heartland  

2019
NDA:     4 BJP           47.4%
UPA:     1 INC           41.8%
Others  0 BSP-SP        8.2%

2014:
NDA:    5 BJP    55.9%
UPA:     0 INC    34.4%
Others: 0 BSP     4.8%


UP:
SP-BSP-RLD Grand Alliance consolidates backward vote to beat back BJP.  INC resurgence in some seats and SP splinter PSP cuts into Grand Alliance votes and prevents even greater BJP losses.

2019
NDA:    34 (32 BJP 2 AD(S))                            41.7%
UPA:      2 INC-JAP-AD (2 INC)                          9.1%
Others: 44 SP-BSP-RLD(22 SP 21 BSP 1 RLD )  42.9%
             0 PSP                                                 1.9%

2014
NDA:    73 (71 BJP 2 AD)   43.6%
UPA:       2 INC                   8.5%
Others:   5 SP                   22.3%
              0 BSP                 19.8%


Bihar:
Nitish Kumar's popularity pulls NDA ahead despite anti-incumbency.  CPI(ML) has tactical alliance with UPA.
 
2019
NDA:   28 (14 BJP 9 JD(U) 5 LJP)                      48.4%
UPA:    12 (6 RJD 5 INC 1 RLSP 0 HAM 0 VIP)    42.4%
Others   0 CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI                               2.0%

2014
NDA:   31 (22 BJP 6 LJP 3 RLSP)         39.5%
UPA:     7 (4 RJD 2 INC 1 NCP)           30.3%
Others: 2 JD(U)-CPI (2 JD(U) 0 CPI)   17.2%


MP
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory
 
2019
NDA:  20 BJP        49.9%
UPA:    9 INC        42.0%
Others 0 SP-BSP     4.5%

2014
NDA:  27 BJP     54.8%
UPA:    2 INC     35.4%


Rajasthan
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory

2019
NDA: 15 BJP     49.3%
UPA:  10 INC    46.3%

2014
NDA: 25 BJP    55.6%
UPA:   0 INC    30.7%


Chhattisgarh
Tribal votes seems to be shifting away from BJP which adds to the INC edge after the 2018 assembly election victory which will contain the Modi wave in Upper Caste areas.

2019
NDA:    4 BJP          40.7%
UPA:     7 INC         45.0%
Others: 0 BSP-JCC    9.1%

2014
NDA:  10 BJP    49.7%
UPA:    1 INC    39.1%


Jharkhand
INC-JMM-JVM-RJD alliance will create a base too large for BJP to beat even with AJSU alliance, especially given anti-incumbency building up.

2019
NDA:  5 (5 BJP 0 AJSU)                      42.4%
UPA:   9 (4 JMM 2 INC 2 JVM 1 RJD)    47.6%

2014
NDA:  12 BJP                            40.7%                
UPA:    2 (2 JMM 0 INC 0 RJD)    24.6%
           0 JVM                            12.3%
           0 AJSU                            3.8%


Gujarat
INC make s a slight comeback but the Modi wave is still powerful in his home state.

2019
NDA:  22 BJP        52.3%
UPA:    4 INC        42.6%

2014
NDA:  26 BJP                       60.1%
UPA:    0 (0 INC 0 NCP)        34.4%


Maharashtra
BJP got SHS to come aboard to an alliance which might not work on the ground.  INC and NCP deeply divided but does have de facto NMS support.  Dalit-Muslim BVA will split the INC-NCP vote and help give NDA a partial victory despite anti-incumbency.

2019
NDA:       31 (18 BJP 13 SHS)                             47.2%
UPA:        17 (7 INC 8 NCP 1 SWP 1 BVA 0 YSP)   43.6%
Others:     0 VBA                                                 3.3%

2014
NDA:    42 (23 BJP 18 SHS 1 SWP)         51.6%
UPA:      6 (2 INC 4 NCP)                       35.0%
Others:  0 NMS                                       1.5%


Goa
BJP government in turmoil should give INC a chance

2019
NDA: 1 BJP    50.9%
UPA: 1 INC    43.8%

2014
NDA: 2 BJP    54.1%
UPA:  0 INC   37.0%


WB:
Left Front implosion and lack of INC-Left Front tactical alliance will doom Left Front.  BJP surges as it captures the anti-incumbency vote.

2019
NDA:        9 BJP             34.2%
UPA:         2 INC              7.6%
Others:   31 AITC           40.4%
               0  Left Front    15.0%

2014
NDA:      2 BJP           17.0%
UPA        4 INC            9.7%
Others: 34 AITC         39.8%
             2 Left Front   30.1%


Orissa:
INC imploding and anti-incumbency votes going to BJP leads to a shock BJP narrow victory here.  

2019
NDA:    11 BJP                         39.1%
UPA:      0 INC-JMM-CPI-CPM    18.2%
Others: 10 BJD                        39.3%

2014
NDA:     1 BJP     21.9%
UPA       0 INC    26.4%
Others: 20 BJD   44.8%


Karnataka
INC-JD(S) alliance will not work well on the ground letting BJP fight INC-JD(S) to a near tie.

2019
NDA:   13 BJP                        48.3%
UPA:    15 (11 INC 4 JD(S))    48.6%
 

2014
NDA:   17 BJP      43.4%
UPA:     9 INC      41.2%
Others: 2 JD(S)   11.2%


AP
5 way battle and JSP splitting the anti-incumbency vote  allows TDP to avoid a total wipe-out. YSRCP most likely will back BJP post-election.  YSRCP alliance with TRS also drives some anti-Telagana votes to TDP.

2019
NDA:       0 BJP                       7.4%
UPA:        0 INC                      7.9%
Others:  21 YSRCP                 37.5%
              4 TDP                      32.6%
              0 JSP-BSP-CPI-CPM  12.4%

2014
NDA:    17 (15 TDP 2 BJP)    48.0%
UPA:       0 INC                     2.9%
Others:   8 YSRCP                45.7%


Telangana
TRS to repeat the 2018 assembly election landslide.  CPI TDP are backing to INC to no avail as AIMIM has a tactical alliance with TRS.  YSRCP pretty much pulled out of the state to back TRS.

2019
NDA:      0 BJP                   13.7%
UPA:       0 INC                  30.6%
Others: 16 TRS                  46.7%
              1 AIMIM                2.7%
              0 JSP-BSP-CPM      3.6%

2014
NDA:      2 (1 BJP 1 TDP)     22.8%
UPA:      2 INC                    25.7%
Others: 11 TRS                   34.9%
             1 YSRCP                 4.5%
             1 AIMIM                 3.5%


TN
AIADMK split into splinter AMMK and anti-incumbency will defeat NDA despite the size of the alliance.  The NDA defeat could end up being worse than this.

2019
NDA:      8 (5 AIADMK 1 BJP 1 PMK 0 DMDK 0 PT 0 TMC 0 PNK)         37.4%
UPA      31 (18 DMK 6 INC 2 VCK 2 CPI 2 CPM 1 MUL 0 IJK 0 KMDK ) 44.2%
Others:  0 AMMK                                                                            12.1%
             0 NMN                                                                                3.2%
              
2014
NDA:       2 (1 PMK 1 BJP 0 DMDK 0 MDMK)     18.7%
UPA:       0 INC                                                4.4%
Others:  39 AIADMK                                       44.9%
              0 DMK                                             27.2%


Kerala
Sabarimala temple issue will crush Left Front and lead to a large scale defection of Left Front vote to BJP who will finally win a seat in Kerala.  This and anti-incumbency will lead to a UPA landslide.  Rahul Gandhi running in Kerala is part of the UPA moving in for the kill.
 
2019
NDA:       1 (1 BJP 0 BDJS 0 KEC(T))              21.3%
UPA:      16 (12 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)  41.4%
Others:   3  Left Front                                   33.6%

2014
NDA:     0 BJP                                              10.9%
UPA:    12 (8 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)      42.5%
Others:  8 Left Front                                    41.6%


Assam
NDA was about to sweep the state until the new citizenship bill.  Now it is a real fight with anti-incumbency building up.  AIUDF only running in 3 seats helps INC partly but also drives Hindu votes away from INC to NDA.

2019
NDA:       7 (6 BJP 1 BPF 0 AGP)     46.6%
UPA:        4 INC                            36.1%
Others:    3 AIUDF                         11.2%

2014
NDA:      7 BJP                    38.7%
UPA:       3 (3 INC 0 BPF)     31.5%
Others:   3 AIUDF                15.0%
              1 ex-ULFA               4.2%
              0 AGP                     3.9%


6 Federal districts
I expect here to be a small swing away from NDA to UPA with INC gaining a couple of seats

2019
NDA:     3 (3 BJP 0 AINRC)
UPA:     3 (2 INC 1 NCP)

2014
NDA:      5 (4 BJP 1 AINRC)
UPA:     1 (0 INC 1 NCP)


11 Northeast seats
Before the new citizenship bill NDA was going to sweep.  Now several pro-BJP parties are running separately and away from BJP.  Still NDA plus pro-NDA parties will have the edge.  

2019
NDA:     6 (5 BJP 1 NDPP 1)
UPA:      1 INC
Others:  0 Left Front
             4 pro-NDA (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 UDP 1 MNF)

2014
NDA:      4 (1 BJP 1 NPF 1 NPP 1 SDF)
UPA:      5 INC
Others:  2 Left Front


The total result of all this are

NDA: 246 (205 BJP)  39.7% (32.1% BJP)
UPA   153 (99 INC)   30.8% (22.4% INC)

Back in 2014 it was

NDA:  336 (282 BJP)  38.5% (31.1% BJP)
UPA:     59 ( 44 INC)  23.1% (19.3% INC)

So the BJP vote share are mostly similar to 2014 but INC saw a moderate increase.

In 2019
BJP will come in first place in 205 seats and second place 172 seats making its "reach" 377
INC will come in first place in 99 seats and second place 163 seats making its "reach" 262

In 2014
BJP come in first place in 282 seats and second place 54  seats making its "reach" 336
INC will come in first place in 44 seats and second place 224 seats making its "reach" 268

So INC's "reach" stayed around the same (it became more relevant in TN but lost relevance in WB, Odisha and the Northesst) and BJP's "reach" increased  by 40 some seats (mostly in WB, Odisha and the Northeast)

Rest of the seats are
Pro-NDA            4 (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 UDP 1 MNF)
Pro-UPA             7 (4 TDP 3 JKN)
Federal Front     47 (21 YSRCP 16 TRS 10 BJD)
Grand Alliance   75 (31 AITC 22 SP 21 BSP 1 RLD)
Left                   7 (3 Left Front 2 CPI 2 CPM) [2 CPI 2 CPM from alliance with UPA in TN)
Anti-NDA           4 (3 AIUDF 1 AIMIM)


NDA should be able to form a government with pro-NDA parties and some Federal Front party support.  YSRCP will for sure back NDA as most likely will TRS.  BJD might stay away to deal with its new rival the BJP in Odisha.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 01, 2019, 06:40:55 pm
India TV-CNX poll for 3 states with diff from Mar 2019 poll

UP: NDA 46(+5) SP-BSP-RLD 30(-5) UPA 4(--)
 
WB: AITC  28 (-2) BJP 12 (--) INC 1 (+1) Left 1 (+1)
 
Odisha: BJD  15 (+1) BJP 5 (-2) UPA 1 (+1)
 
Bihar: NDA 28(-2) UPA 12(+2)

Rajastahan: BJP 20(--)  INC 5(--)

MP: BJP 23(--) INC 6(--)

Chhattisgarh INC 8(+3) BJP 3(-3)

Assam: NDA 8(--) INC 4(--) AIUDF 2(--)

Northeast NDA 7(--) UPA 3(--) Left 1(--)

Gujarat: BJP 23(-3) INC 3(+3)

AP: YSRCP 20(-2) TDP 5(+2)

Telengana: TRS 14(--) INC 2(--)  AIMIM 1(--)

Karnataka: BJP 14(+1) UPA 14(-1)

Punjab: INC 9(--) NDA 3(--) AAP 1(--)

Haryana: BJP 9(--) INC 1(--)

Kerala: UPA 12(--) Left 7(--) BJP 1(--)

Delhi BJP 7(--) INC 0(--) AAP 0(--)

J&K: BJP 2(--) INC 1(--) JKN 2(--) PDP 1(--)

HP: BJP 4(--) INC 0(--)

Goa: BJP 2(--) INC 0(--)

Uttarakhand: BJP 4(-1) INC 1(+1)

Maharashtra: NDA 32(--) UPA 16(--)

Jharkhand: NDA 8(--) UPA 6(--)

With total NDA 270 (-15) UPA 140(+13) 133(+2)

Overall the momentum is moving slightly against NDA.  Only real bright spot for NDA was the increase in seat share in UP.

The UP vote share which has

NDA            42%
SP-BSP-RLD 40%
INC             16%

Has a surprising large vote share for INC.
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 02, 2019, 08:08:04 am
INC manifesto came out.   In addition to the Rahul Gandhi minimum income guarantee INC also promises to waive all farm loans across India if it came to power.  So in other words the INC platform is going to be 'Free !! Free !!! Free !!!"  Of course since there is zero chance INC will come to power this set of promises will not be tested. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 02, 2019, 10:21:44 am
https://www.ndtv.com/telangana-news/over-170-farmers-to-launch-mega-campaign-for-telangana-polls-in-nizamabad-2015628

In the Telangana seat of Nizamabad where the daughter of TRS leader KCR is contesting on the TRS ticket has saw over 170 farmers all filing papers to contest.  It seems these farmers are protesting TRS's failure to maintain a adequate level of minimal farm prices by causing chaos in the election in this district.  All of them have paid the deposit to become a candidate which is around $360 each.  So now the voters in Nizamabad  will be confronted with voting machines that will have to support 185 candidates.    If that does not work then the election might have to be conducted using paper ballots.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 02, 2019, 10:34:06 am
https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/congress-nyay-scheme-30-seats-bjp-study-1492372-2019-04-02

BJP internal survey seems to indicate that the Rahul Gandhi minimum income scheme is making an impact.  BJP's internal assessment is that after the air strikes against Pakistan that BJP will get 230-240 seats.  Now after the Rahul Gandhi's minimum income scheme came out the impact on the BJP is around 30 seats which would mean the BJP assessment is that BJP is on target to get 200-210 seats.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 03, 2019, 07:33:42 am
With the limited data we have the momentum seems to be stalling for NDA.  If so there is a fair chance that NDA plus pro-NDA parties in the Northeast might not cross 272 for a majority.  If so where will the BJP find support to form a government.  The choices are the regional parties YSRCP, TRS and BJD.  I would rate the chances of these parties backing a BJP government as

YSRCP: High
TRS: Medium
BJD: Low

The stronger the BJP is in the state of the regional party the less likely said party will back a NDA government.  The BJP is the weakest in AP, has a base although very localized to urban areas in Telangana, and fairly strong and rising in Odisha.

YSRCP has already stated that it would back a NDA government at the federal level if they do not have the numbers if NDA would grant special status for AP.  Part of this is a ploy to get tactical voting by BJP voters in AP but with TDP clearly anti-BJP YSRCP clearly would lean BJP.  In fact AP might end up like TN where TDP and YSRCP would be like DMK and AIADMK  being the dominate local regional rivals and swap partners with national parties like BJP and INC from time to time.

TRS for the same reason will most likely back NDA if necessary given its main rival in  Telangana is INC.  Still it is clear that BJP has ambitions to grow in Telangana which would give TRS second thoughts.

BJD has been allies with BJP in the past and still has a fairly anti-INC stance.  But with this election where BJP could end up a strong rival to BJD if not pull of a surprise to beat BJD in the LS elections the BJD is unlikely to want to back BJP at the federal level.  In fact if BJP does usually well the question BJD would have to ask would eventually be: Should BJD form an alliance with INC.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 03, 2019, 10:03:37 am
Some more ABP polls

Bihar: NDA 34 UPA 6
()

UP: SP-BSP-RLD 42 BJP-AD 36 INC 2
()



Poll Eyes which seems to be have a significant anti-BJP lean in its polls had for Chhattisgarh

             Seat           Vote share
INC          8                   44%
BJP          3                   41%
BSP-JCC   0                   10%  

JCC will not be running any candidates but will be backing BSP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 03, 2019, 02:08:06 pm
Only In Kolkata, You'll Find Election Campaign Graffitis In Mandarin

In this case the graffitis is in Chinatown and asks for support for AITC.

()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Pittsburgh For Kamala on April 03, 2019, 10:20:09 pm
For the sake of all Indians, let's hope Modi loses.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 04, 2019, 07:24:52 am
Latest controversy revolves  around all cable TV watchers now have a new unprompted channel choice called NaMo TV. 

()

Which seems to be a channel that is 24/7 about PM Modi and his activities.  When there were complaints about this new cable channel being allowed without going through the licensing procedure for a new cable TV channel it was pointed out that this channel is really an advertisement paid for by the BJP ergo not really a channel.  Of course this argument then potentially gets the BJP in trouble with campaign spending and fiance laws.  Anyway in the meantime it seems the various cable TV providers are saying to their customers that they cannot remove this channel from the list of channels as it is provided free of charge.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 05, 2019, 09:16:44 am
Even though it was suppose to be dead there are sources now that are saying INC and AAP have agreed to formed an alliance in Delhi and Haryana.  This have not been confirmed though.  The reason there was no AAP-INC deal in Delhi in the recent past has been AAP want the seat allocation to be AAP 5 INC 2 and INC wants it to be INC 4 AAP 3.  I suspect if there is a deal it was the AAP that backed down.  I think that even if an alliance is formed I am not sure how many seats a AAP-INC alliance can win given the anti-incumbency against the AAP state government. 

An INC-AAP alliance in Haryana would be interesting.    Right now in Haryana it is a 6 way battle.  It is
BJP vs INC vs BSP-LSP vs AAP vs INLD vs JJP.

LSP is a Jat based BJP splinter.  JJP is an INLD splinter with INLD a mostly Jat based party.  AAP has been making some headway in growing in Haryana and with INLD-JJP split down the middle the election would mostly be BJP vs INC but the vote share would be very splinter.

AAP's position has always been that it wants an INC-JJP-AAP alliance something some factions of the INC are not opposed to.  JJP is open to an alliance with AAP but  is opposed to an alliance with INC.  INLD seems to want an alliance with BJP and could accept high price for it if JJP have an alliance with AAP.

So we are likely to have either
a) status quo: BJP vs INC vs BSP-LSP vs AAP vs INLD vs JJP.
OR
b) INC-APP alliance: BJP vs INC-AAP vs BSP-LSP vs INLD vs JJP
OR
c) INC-APP alliance which triggers BJP-INLD alliance : BJP-INLD vs INC-AAP vs BSP-LSP vs JJP
or
d) INC-JJP-AAP alliance with triggers BJP-INLD alliance: BJP-INLD vs INC-JJP-AAP vs BSP-LSP

with a) b) and c) all possible and d) not that likely.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 05, 2019, 10:51:03 am
Poll Eyes (seems to have anti-BJP lean) poll on Karnataka

                Seat           Vote share
INC-JD(S)   17                   51%
BJP            11                   45%
 
It has BJP strong 4 Lean BJP 4  Tossup 9 Lean UPA 3 UPA strong 8.  So this poll seem to assume that the tossups will lean INC-JD(S)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 05, 2019, 11:38:09 am
News Nation poll on Gujarat which is unchanged from the same a similar poll back in March in terms of seats

         Seats      Vote share
BJP      21            49%
INC        5           41%
()

A vote share difference of 8% should imply something like 7-8 seats for INC.  What is the bad news here is if the BJP-INC vote share gap is 8% then that is almost a 9% swing away from BJP relative to 2014 and pretty much matches the 2017 assembly results.  This is very bad new for BJP.  If the BJP performance in the Hindi heartland with the Modi effect is about the same as recent assembly elections then the BJP will lose a bunch of seats across the North even if a loss of 5 seats in Gujarat is lager than what BJP wants (BJP seems to be hoping for 2) but still somewhat manageable. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 06, 2019, 05:57:01 am
India Today - Political Stock Exchange poll on preferred PM which usually favor the incumbent (with difference from March poll)

Overall: Modi 53(+1) Gandhi 35(+2)

North: Modi 56(+2) Gandhi 30(-1)
East: Modi 55(-2) Gandhi 32(+5)
West: Modi 58(+2) Gandhi 30(+1)
South: Modi 39(+1) Gandhi 51(+6)

By community

Upper Caste: 73(+1) Gandhi 17(+2)
OBC: Modi 68(+1) Gandhi 22(+2)
Dalit: Modi 42(+1) Gandhi 46(+2)
Tribal: Modi 45(+1) Gandhi 42(+2)
Muslim: Modi 19(+1) Gandhi 64(+3)

So not much movement from March other than a tiny shift toward Rahul Gandhi.  Still being behind 53-35 is not that bad given Modi is the main BJP trump card and the incumbent.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 06, 2019, 08:47:59 am
Since there are ongoing talks between INC and AAP for alliance in Delhi and Haryana there are plenty of media coverage.  The main media narrative seems to be that a INC-AAP alliance makes sense in Delhi but not Haryana given the small base of AAP.

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/ties-with-aap-in-haryana-may-not-give-dividends-to-cong-727192.html

I tend to disagree.  My main way of looking at Indian elections focus on the state level anti-incumbency.  The basic idea is that a state level ruling party facing anti-incumbency which is bound to go up over time does not gain from alliances as a good part of the anti-incumbency vote of an alliance partner will be driven away to another party.  On the other hand several opposition parties forming an alliance makes sense as it prevents the split of the anti-incumbent vote.

So in Delhi where the AAP has been in power at the state level since 2015 has the weight of anti-incumbency so an AAP-INC alliance will not work as the math would indicate as the anti-AAP part of the INC vote would just go BJP.  In Haryana the BJP has been in power at the state level since 2014 and has to count on the split of the anti-incumbent opposition vote to win.  Even if the AAP vote is small in Haryana it was 4.3% in 2014 which is significant in a multi-cornered battle and most of it should be transferable to INC since INC is not the state ruling party.  In fact talk of a BJP-INLD alliance in response I think would be a bad idea for both BJP and INLD as it would just polarize the anti-incumbent vote toward INC-AAP as key parts of the anti-BJP part of the INLD base would migrate there or INLD splinter JJP.

AAP is also pushing the idea of an INC-APP alliance in Punjab which the INC has flatly refused.  With the INC as the state ruling part of Punjab since 2017 where anti-incumbency should be starting to build it would serve INC ill to accept such an alliance as it would drive what is left of the AAP vote over to SAD-BJP, especially in SAD seats.     


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 06, 2019, 06:08:54 pm
Jan Ki Baat poll for Republic TV had NDA crossing 300  This pollster tends to lean BJP in the past.

NDA    304-316    
UPA    117-126    
Others 110-113  
()

By state the results seems to indicate a Modi wave in the North which would make sense if that were true.  The TN results are hard to believe given the toxic nature of the BJP brand down there.

UP
BJP      43-52    43%
SP-BSP 25-33   40%
INC        3-4

If INC is at 3-4 then there must be a Muslim vote surge for INC undercutting SP-BSP
()


Maharashtra
NDA     33-39    45.5%
UPA       9-15    38.5%
()


MP
BJP     22-25    50%
INC      4-7      39%
()


Rajasthan
BJP   19-22    52%
INC    3-6      42%
()


Chhattisgarh
BJP   4-5    46.4%
INC  6-7     45.4%
()


Jharkhand
BJP  9-11   40.5%
UPA  3-5    38.0% (INC 17.6 JMM 13.4 JVM 5 RJD 2)
()


TN
NDA   20-21   44%
UPA   18-19    40%

This is a shock and out of sync with most other polls
()


Bihar
NDA   28-33    45.6%
UPA     7-12     34.4%
()


WB
AITC   22-28     38%
BJP     11-16     31%
INC      2-3       10%
Left      0-1       14%
()


Gujarat
BJP    21-23   59%
INC     3-5     38%
()


Delhi
BJP    5-6    44%
INC    0-1    30%
AAP     1      20%

I have to assume given the  Modi wave this poll implies in other states this poll assumes AAP-INC alliance or else it should be BJP 7 easily
()


Karnataka
BJP    16-21 (including pro-BJP independent)
UPA     7-12
()


Haryana
BJP   7-8   38%
INC  1-2    22%
JJP     1
()


AP
YSRCP    13-16    46%
TDP          8-12    41%
BJP           0-1

I would be curious to know which 1 seat this poll thinks the BJP could win
()


Telangana
TRS    14-15
AIMIM    1
BJP        1
INC      0-1
()


Punjab
INC   9-10   48%
NDA   2-4    32%
AAP    0-1
()


HP
BJP    4
INC    0
()


Goa
BJP  1-2
INC  0-1
()


Uttarakhand
BJP   5       54%
INC   0       45%
()


Odisha
BJD   9-12      40.0%
BJP    8-12      35.4%
INC    0-1       21.6%
()


Kerala
UPA    14-16
Left      4-5
NDA     0-1
()


J&K
BJP  1-2
INC 1-2
JKN   2
PDP   1


Northeast (25 seats which includes Assam)
NDA 18-19
UPA   6-7


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 05:51:01 am
CSDS poll on PM choice shows a surge a Modi recovery from May 2018 levels when he hit a nadir.

                         May 14    May 17    Jan 18      May 18     Mar
Modi                     36           44            37          34           43
Rahul Gandhi        16             9            20           24           24

The terror strikes must have played a part as the poll was done in March.  On the other hand Gandhi is holding on to his support from when he was the strongest in May 18.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 07:44:06 am
Latest CNX poll has it at NDA 275(+5) UPA 147(+7) Others 121 (-12).  So slight shift in momentum in favor of NDA.

--------------
Uttar Pradesh: BJP 45, BSP 14, SP 15, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1
                      NDA 40% SP-BSP-RLD 32% INC 15%
Uttarakhand: BJP 3, Congress 2
Rajasthan: BJP 17, Congress 8
                BJP 48% INC 40%
West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 28, BJP 12, Cong 1, LF 1
                    AITC 37% BJP 27% INC 11% Left 16%
Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 14, BJP 6, Congress 1
Madhya Pradesh: BJP 21, Congress 8
                          BJP 49% INC 45%
Chhattisgarh: BJP 3, Congress 8
                     BJP 38% INC 44%
Punjab: Congress 9, Akali Dal 2, AAP 1, BJP 1
             INC 39% SAD-BJP 29% AAP 20% (very surprising that AAP can be at 20%)
Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1
              BJP 44% INC 27% INLD 14% (what about JJP?)
Bihar: BJP 14, RJD 8, JD(U) 9, Congress 3, LJP 3, RLSP 1, HAM 1, VIP 1
          NDA 45% UPA Not clear most likely in the 30s
Jharkhand: BJP 9, JMM 2, Congress 3
                 BJP 38% UPA not clear most likely in the low 30s
Gujarat: BJP 24, Congress 2
             BJP 52% INC 45%
Himachal Pradesh: BJP 3, Congress 1
Maharashtra: BJP 21, Shiv Sena 13, Congress 7, NCP 6, Others 1
                    NDA 45% UPA 37%
Goa: BJP 2, Congress 0
Tamil Nadu: DMK 16, AIADMK 10, Congress 5, BJP 1, PMK 2, Other-5
Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 18, TDP 7
Telangana: TRS12, AIMIM 1, Congress 4
Karnataka: BJP 16, Congress 10, JD(S) 2
Kerala: UDF 12, LDF 7, BJP 1
Jammu Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 3, Congress 1                          
Assam: BJP 5, AIUDF 2, Congress 5, Others 2
Other North East states: BJP 4, Congress 4, NPP 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1
Delhi: BJP 7
         BJP 42% INC 31% AAP 20%
Other Union Territories: BJP 4, Congress 2


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 08:54:56 am
So that is two polls in a role that show a BJP surge in UP not because of any increase in vote share but an INC surge that eats into SP-BSP-RLD vote share to drive a bunch of SP-BSP-RLD seats to BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: FredLindq on April 07, 2019, 02:43:16 pm
I think that you got Kerala wrong there. It should be INC 8, Left 4, BJP 1 and others 7 (+1). All these others can not be UDF since INC contests 16 seats and others UDF (IUML, KCM and RSP) four seats. So i think that it should be INC 8, IUML 2, KCM 1, RSP 1, CPIM 4 and independet CPIM/Left 3 and BJP 1.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 07, 2019, 03:16:34 pm
I think that you got Kerala wrong there. It should be INC 8, Left 4, BJP 1 and others 7 (+1). All these others can not be UDF since INC contests 16 seats and others UDF (IUML, KCM and RSP) four seats. So i think that it should be INC 8, IUML 2, KCM 1, RSP 1, CPIM 4 and independet CPIM/Left 3 and BJP 1.

You could be right.  I got UDF 14, LDF 5, BJP 1 from a different source
https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/latest-survey-says-nda-getting-275-upa-147-others-121-727362.html

Which seems to be a typo ... Let me go fix.  It seems it should be UDF 12, LDF 7, BJP 1


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 08, 2019, 09:56:34 am
VDP poll on AP assembly elections.  Since JSP have an alliance with BSP CPI CPM the vote share should be

                             Vote             Seats (taking medium value)
YRSCP                   43.85%         112
TDP                       40.00%          61
JSP-BSP-CPI-CPM   11.40%           2
BJP                         2.40%           0
INC                         1.65%          0
()

Given the fact that TDP is behind even as the incumbent party I think the scale of the TDP defeat will be greater than this.   YSRCP looks like will sweep the LS elections as well with at last 20 out of 25 LS seats if this poll is accurate.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: FredLindq on April 08, 2019, 12:00:28 pm
I noticed that in Lakshadweep Lok Sabha constituency UPA has two candidates the current MP   Mohammed Faizal P. P. from NCP as well as one candidate from INC. BJP has one candidate och JD(U) one. I also noticed that NDA has only won here once (BJP in 2004). The candidate that one then contested the 2009 election as a candidate for NCP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 08, 2019, 01:56:56 pm
I noticed that in Lakshadweep Lok Sabha constituency UPA has two candidates the current MP   Mohammed Faizal P. P. from NCP as well as one candidate from INC. BJP has one candidate och JD(U) one. I also noticed that NDA has only won here once (BJP in 2004). The candidate that one then contested the 2009 election as a candidate for NCP.

Well Lakshadweep is majority Muslim so BJP is not relevant here.  NCP and JD(U) have been rivals of INC in the past and today.  Right now it is INC and NCP that are dominate there. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 08, 2019, 02:21:03 pm
Republic TV/CVoter poll

             Seats      Vote Share
NDA       267             41.9%
UPA        142            30.7%
Others    134            27.4%
()


By state

UP
()


WB
()
 

Bihar
()


Odisha
()


MP
()


Haryana
()


Chhattisgarh
()


Punjab
()


Rajasthan
()


Maharashtra
()


Gujarat
()


Telangana
()


Karnataka
()


TN
()


AP (TDP ahead ??!!!)
()


Uttarakhand
()


Kerala (surprised BJP does not win one)
()


Jharkhand
()


HP
()


Delhi
()


Goa
()


J&K
()


Assam
()


Manipur
()


Meghalaya
()


Mizoram
()


Nagaland
()


Tripura
()


Arunachal Pradesh
()


No poll for Sikkim nor the Federal districts.  But by looking at the final seats count one could conclude it is

Sikkim - pro-NDA SDF
A&N, Chandigarh, D&N H, D&D - BJP
Pondicherry - INC
Lakshadweep - NCP


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 08, 2019, 02:48:34 pm
Now that were has been a bunch of polls we can start to average the seat count to get an sense of what a poll of poll projection looks like.  


I will be adjusting the averages by state based on my theory of state level anti-incumbency.  The basic idea is that if the state incumbent party was elected in the last 12 months then current polls most likely underestimate the ruling party.  For 12-24 months then the polls most likely at par and anything earlier  would overestimate the state ruling party.

Since NDA is the only formation that can realistically form a government we can just compute the poll of poll averages of NDA seats by state.  Also since every poll count the various Northeast pro-BJP parties as BJP even though they are running separately from BJP (I count them as not NDA but pro-NDA parties) we will count them as NDA in these averages.  

Based on the data I have I can construct this chart

State    Total Seats    Date of last             State Ruling       Average NDA      Adjusted NDA
                              assembly election        party                  seats                    seats
J&K               6            2014                          PDP                     2.1                      2
HP                4         Late 2017                      BJP                      3.7                      4
Haryana       10             2014                         BJP                      8.1                     6
Punjab         13         Early 2017                     INC                     2.3                      3
Delhi             7             2015                         AAP                     6.3                      7
Uttarakhand   5         Early 2017                    BJP                      4.4                      4
UP               80         Early 2017                    BJP                     39.5                    36
Bihar           40             2015                        JD(U)                  29.7                    28
MP              29          Late 2018                    INC                     21.8                    20
Rajasthan     25         Late 2018                    INC                     19.1                    17
Chhattisgarh 11         Late 2018                    INC                      3.9                      3
Jharkhand    14            2014                         BJP                      7.9                      6
Gujarat         26         Late 2017                    BJP                    22.1                     22
Maharashtra  48           2014                         BJP                    35.3                     32
Goa                2         Early 2017                   BJP                     1.8                       1
WB               42            2016                        AITC                  10.2                     12
Orissa           21            2014                        BJD                     9.9                     12
Karnataka     28         Early 2018                   INC                   15.4                     15
AP                25             2014                       TDP                     0.8                      0
Telangana     17          Late 2018                   TRS                     0.7                      0
TN                39            2016                     AIADMK                12.6                    10
Kerala           20             2014                       Left                     0.8                      1
A&N                1                                                                        1                      1
Chandigarh     1                                                                        1                       1
D&N H            1                                                                        1                       1
D&D               1                                                                        1                       1
Pondicherry     1             2016                       INC                    0.3                       0
Lakshadweep   1                                                                       0                       0
Assam           14            2016                        BJP                    7.4                       7
Arunachal P     2             2014                       BJP                    1.5                       2
Manipur           2          Early 2017                 BJP                    1.2                       1
Mizoram          1          Late 2018                   MNF                   0.2                      1
Nagaland         1          Early 2018                 NDPP                     1                      1
Tripura            2          Early 2018                 BJP                        2                       2
Meghalaya       2          Early 2018                 NPP                    0.8                       2
Sikkim             1            2014                       SDF                       1                       1
Total             543                                                                  277.6                  262
 
So a poll of poll average gets NDA plus pro-NDA parties at 277.6 seats.  But if you do my adjustment to take into account state level anti-incumbency I have it at 262.  Even if I am right BJP should be able to rope in YSRCP to from the government.  


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 08, 2019, 04:24:14 pm
Some good India Today data

India Today PSE poll on Modi net stratification
()

Seems to imply the Modi wave is still strong in the Hindi North and that BJP on route to a good night in Odisha.  But TN should be bad for NDA so I am confused at some polls showing NDA doing well in TN.


India Today did some poll of polls itself. 

First vote share
()

Where everyone is the same.  My own model has NDA at 39.7% and UPA at 31.0% although my model does not count JKN in J&K and CPI(ML) in Bihar as UPA as they only have partial alliances with UPA.  So if I used the various polling firms methodology of counting them as UPA my vote share number might be a bit higer.

In terms of seats
()
()

Poll of poll seat count is 277 for NDA.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 08, 2019, 05:59:05 pm
Times Now-VMR Opinion Poll

NDA    279   40.8%
UPA     149   30.7%
Others 115   28.5%
()

By state

TN
()


Kerala
()


Karnataka
()


AP
()


Telangana
()


Maharashtra
()


Gujarat
()


Rajasthan
()


Goa
()


D&N H
()


UP
()


Uttarakhand
()


MP
()


Chhattisgarh
()


Delhi
()


Haryana
()


HP
()


J&K
()


Punjab
()


Chandigarh
()


WB
()


Bihar
()


Jharkhand
()


Assam
()


Odisha
()


Tripura
()


Mizoram
()


Nagaland
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 08, 2019, 06:16:16 pm
NDTV analysis of Telangana.

Demographic data
()

Poll showing rough sizes of voting blocs
()

Points of if 2018 Dec assembly election is repeated it will be TRS landslide
()

Points out something I have been saying.  If a LS election is held within a year of an assembly election the size of the winner margin of victory goes up.  If true for MP Rajasthan Chhattisgarh then BJP is in big trouble.
()

Points out that TRS has all sorts of populist schemes to rope in various voting blocs
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 09, 2019, 04:33:00 am
NDTV analysis of AP

Demographics (note that Christians are underestimated as a lot of Dalits in AP are really Christian but does not ID as such for fear of losing out on job quotas for Dalits)
()

Shows that TDP stronger in coastal AP while YSRCP stronger in Rayalseema in 2014
()

Points out TDP stronger with Hindus and YSRCP stronger with Muslims (which is ironic as YSRCP is much more likely to ally with BJP post-election)
()

TDP stronger with Upper Caste and OBC while YSRCP stronger with Dalits, Reddy, and Christians.  Note YSRCP leader Jagan Reddy is a Reddy (of course) and a Christian 
()

TDP stronger in cities and YSRCP stronger in villages. 
()

These patterns show that YSRCP is really just the old AP INC in terms of voting base.

Key factor is where the JSP vote will come from.  JSP will clearly pull in the youth vote (which in theory hits YSRCP) as well as Kapus (which will hit TDP)
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 09, 2019, 11:53:00 am
India TV-CNX poll

NDA    295
UPA    127
Others 121
()

NDA gains 20 seat from previous poll.  First sign of momentum either side since March.

By state

Uttar Pradesh: BJP 46, BSP 13, SP 15, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1, Total 80.
Uttarakhand: BJP 4, Congress 1. Total 5.
Rajasthan: BJP 19, Congress 6. Total 25.
West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 29, BJP 12,  Cong 1, LF 0. Total 42.
Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 13, BJP 7, Congress 1. Total 21.
Madhya Pradesh: BJP 23, Congress 6, Total 29.
Chhattisgarh: BJP 5, Congress 6, Total 11.
Punjab: Congress 10, Akali Dal 3. Total 13.
Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1, Total 10.
Bihar: BJP 15, RJD 5, JD(U) 13, Congress 2, LJP 3, RLSP 1, VIP 1. Total 40.
Jharkhand: BJP 9, JMM 2, Congress 2, AJSU 1.  Total 14.
Gujarat : BJP 24, Congress 2.  Total 26.
Himachal Pradesh: BJP 3, Congress 1, Total 4.
Maharashtra: BJP 21, Shiv Sena 15, Congress 6, NCP 6. Total 48.
Goa: BJP 1, Congress 1. Total 2.
Tamil Nadu: DMK 16, AIADMK 10, Congress 4, BJP 1, PMK 2, Others 6. Total 39
                   [Note should be UPA 24 NDA 15)
Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 20, TDP 5.  Total 25.
Telangana: Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, AIMIM 1, Congress 2, Total 17.
Karnataka: BJP 16, Congress 10, JD(S) 2, Total 28.
Kerala: UDF 16, LDF 4. Total 20.
Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 3, Congress 1. Total 6.
Assam: BJP 6, AIUDF 2, Congress 4, Others 2. Total 14. [Note should be NDA 8 UPA 4 AIUDF 2]
Other North East states: BJP 6, Congress 1, NPP 2, NDPP 1, SDF 1. Total 11.
Delhi: BJP 7.  Total 7.
Other Union Territories:  BJP 4, Congress 2. Total 6.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 09, 2019, 11:56:44 am
CSDS poll

https://www.lokniti.org/media/upload_files/Compiled%20Report%20Day%204.pdf

NDA      273
UPA      120
Others  140

Vote share 

BJP  35% Allies 6% -> NDA 41%
INC 23% Allies 7% -> UPA 30%
BSP 5% Allies 4% -> Grand Alliance 9%
Left 3%
Others 17%

State projections
()

AP with NDA at 0-3 makes no sense.  Which 3 seats does CSDS think BJP can win in AP ?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 09, 2019, 12:25:30 pm
With a bunch more new polls I can update my poll of polls chart

Based on the data I have I can construct this chart of average NDA seats per state and state level anti-incumbency adjusted values

State    Total Seats    Date of last             State Ruling       Average NDA      Adjusted NDA
                              assembly election        party                  seats                    seats
J&K               6            2014                          PDP                     2.1                      2
HP                4         Late 2017                      BJP                      3.8                      4
Haryana       10             2014                         BJP                      8.1                     7
Punjab         13         Early 2017                     INC                     3.0                      4
Delhi             7             2015                         AAP                     6.4                      7
Uttarakhand   5         Early 2017                    BJP                      4.6                      4
UP               80         Early 2017                    BJP                     40.7                    36
Bihar           40             2015                        JD(U)                  30.8                    28
MP              29          Late 2018                    INC                     21.7                    18
Rajasthan     25         Late 2018                    INC                     19.1                    17
Chhattisgarh 11         Late 2018                    INC                      4.2                      3
Jharkhand    14            2014                         BJP                      7.3                      4
Gujarat         26         Late 2017                    BJP                    22.5                     23
Maharashtra  48           2014                         BJP                    36.2                     33
Goa                2         Early 2017                   BJP                     1.6                       1
WB               42            2016                        AITC                    9.7                     14
Orissa           21            2014                        BJD                     9.5                     13
Karnataka     28         Early 2018                   INC                   15.9                     16
AP                25             2014                       TDP                     0.4                      0
Telangana     17          Late 2018                   TRS                     0.3                      0
TN                39            2016                     AIADMK                11.7                      7
Kerala           20             2014                       Left                     0.6                      1
A&N                1                                                                        1                      1
Chandigarh     1                                                                        1                       1
D&N H            1                                                                     0.9                       1
D&D               1                                                                        1                       1
Pondicherry     1             2016                       INC                    0.4                       0
Lakshadweep   1                                                                       0                       0
Assam           14            2016                        BJP                    7.5                       7
Arunachal P     2             2014                       BJP                    1.7                       2
Manipur           2          Early 2017                 BJP                    1.4                       1
Mizoram          1          Late 2018                   MNF                   0.3                      1
Nagaland         1          Early 2018                 NDPP                     1                      1
Tripura            2          Early 2018                 BJP                        2                       2
Meghalaya       2          Early 2018                 NPP                    1.4                       2
Sikkim             1            2014                       SDF                       1                       1
Total             543                                                                  280.7                  263

Mizoram is tough as some pollsters count MNF as part of NDA and others to not. For the proposes of my fair value model I count them as part of NDA.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 09, 2019, 12:48:39 pm
In pretty big news, YSRCP leader Jagan Reddy indicated that "I have forgiven INC" for the Jagan Reddy break with INC back in 2010 and that he will back UPA after the election.  I suspect this is done because I wants to trigger INC->YSRCP tactical voting to beat off any TDP chances due to the split of anti-incumbency vote by JSP.  Not sure if he will hold to this promise to back INC post-election.  If it does AND BJP does well in Odisha which shuts down any BJD support for NDA then NDA HAS to win a majority on its own to form a government or take support from unpredictable TRS whose leader last few days have been slamming Modi.  Lucky for NDA most recent polls seems to converge toward a narrow majority for NDA.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 09, 2019, 04:25:32 pm
BJP MLA killed in Chhattisgarh by Maoist rebels.  Elections to go ahead as scheduled.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/several-killed-including-bjp-mla-bhima-mandavi-in-ied-blast-in-dantewada/article26782767.ece


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 10, 2019, 06:54:11 am
The situation with the BJP in the UP seat Etawah is comical.  First its existing MP Ashok Kumar Doharey defected to INC and will run for INC.  So the BJP drafted its senior leader Mridula Katheria who was the BJP MP from Agra to be its candidate here as a defector from SP was going to be the BJP candidate from Agra.  But Mridula Katheria's wife who was also a big-shot in the BJP in this area claimed that she was promised the seat and will be running as a BJP rebel against her own husband.

https://www.dailypioneer.com/2019/state-editions/katheria---s-wife-files-papers-as-independent.html


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 10, 2019, 07:02:43 am
RJD in Bihar has its own family comedy.  RJD leader Lalu Yadav is behind bars so the leadership fell to younger son Tejashwi Prasad Yadav  
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Lalu Yadav older son Tej Pratap Yadav is lower in the RJD pecking order but still a significant leader.  Tej Pratap Yadav got married last year
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But then had a falling out with his new wife right away and is demanding a divorce.  As his new wife's father is a top RJD leader (and her grandfather was a former INC CM back in the 1970s) Lalu Yadav blocked his attempt at divorce.   Now  Tej Pratap Yadav  is angry that RJD will field his fathter-in-law in Saran and was threading to run against his father-in-law as RJD rebel although it seems recently he has backed off from that threat.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/lok-sabha-elections/tej-pratap-asks-tejashwi-to-rethink-on-sheohar-nominees-goes-campaigning-for-misa/story-IA3ZaNEoUHdEGNbGmwLcDL.html


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 10, 2019, 04:24:18 pm
PEACS Media came out with a poll.  They are not that active and usually have a significant anti-BJP bias.  I had to read through their press release to build up to an implied

NDA    242 (BJP ~200)
UPA    163 (INC ~100)
Others 126

This poll mostly matches other media polls but has NDA only at 33 seats in UP and UPA fighting NDA to a draw in the Northeast.   They also have AITC defeating BJP easily in WB holding BJP to 5 seats.  That plus a moderate anti-BJP lean in the other states drives NDA down toe 242 seats.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 10, 2019, 08:50:11 pm
It seems earlier in the week a TV9/Covter poll had it at

NDA     261
UPA     143
Others  139

What was critical about this poll was that it had a major BJP defeat in UP where it had

                            seats      Vote share
NDA                        28           43.4%
UPA                          4             8.9%
SP-BSP-RLD            48            44.0%

They must assume significant tactical voting by the INC and SP-BSP-RLD voting bases to defeat BJP despite a very close vote share gap between NDA and SP-BSP-RLD.  It also has INC fighting NDA to a draw in the Northeast.  The other states result seems similar to other polls.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 10, 2019, 09:02:07 pm
Voting starts in Phase 1 which includes 91 constituencies spread across 18 states and 2 union territories.  It includes all of AP and Telangana and will include AP assembly elections.  

It will contain the 8 seats Western part of UP.  The key district I would be very interested would be Saharanpur which would be a 3 way battle between BJP INC and BSP.  It is 40% Muslim and without the Hindu polarization of the 2013-2014 Jat-Muslim communal riots the BJP could lose the seat if the Muslim vote consolidates behind either the INC or BSP candidate.  From the looks of it the INC could win this seat.  I am pretty sure all these media projections that have INC winning up to 4 seats in UP must include this seat. INC can only be sure of the 2 Gandhi seats in UP but there are 3-4 other seats where it could win and Saharanpur is actually the most likely to be the 3rd seat.  Of course if the Muslim vote does consolidate behind the INC it could be good news for BJP for the rest of UP since it shows that the SP could not throw its Muslim vote behind BSP.  If this is replicated in the rest of UP the BSP could be beaten by BJP across the board if the Muslim vote goes INC instead where INC has a strong Muslim candidate.   One way or another how the Muslim vote goes in Saharanpur  and why could set the tone on if the BJP can pull out a win (45+ seats in UP) or get hammered (low 30s or less) in UP.


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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 10, 2019, 09:09:31 pm
It seems ECI have banned NoMo TV as well as the showing of a Modi biopic movie before its released.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Ishan on April 11, 2019, 06:57:58 am
Who'll win in Andhra Pradash, my Grandfather said that the Desem party will win in a landslide.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 11, 2019, 11:45:43 am
Voting for phase 1 over. Turnout mostly dropped a couple of percentage points in most places.  Telangana turnout dropped more which is not a surprise as there is no assembly election unlike 2014.  AP, Assam and Maharashtra turnout dropped a bit more.  AP

On the whole the 2014 increase in turnout reflected the Modi wave so it seems in places like UP and Bihar the Modi wave of 2014 is very much alive.  in places like Assam and Maharashtra the BJP might be in trouble although the turnout decline is not large but still significant.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 11, 2019, 11:49:26 am
Who'll win in Andhra Pradash, my Grandfather said that the Desem party will win in a landslide.

Well most likely your grandfather will be wrong.  All trends and reports from AP seems to indicate that YSRCP should win. The only wildcards are a) Will JSP hurt TDP or YSRCP more? b) impact of money power as in AP politics is a business the the role of money which TDP has more of will count a lot c) The impact Jagan Reddy came out to forgive INC for his break with INC in 2010 which seems to be a ploy to get Muslim votes given concerns that YSRCP will join up with NDA after the election

All things equal I would say YSRCP should win and most likely win convincingly


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 11, 2019, 12:12:55 pm
Another funny family related news in the election. 

In HP a key INC Upper caste kingpin has been Sukh Ram who was a member of the INC cabinet at the federal level in the 1990s
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In the 1990s Sukh Ram was implicated in various corruption scandals and expelled from INC.  He then formed HP INC splinter HVC and allied with BJP.  Eventually he and the BJP had a falling out and he merged HVC back into INC before the 2004 elections.

Then in 2017  Sukh Ram, his son Anil Sharma  and his grandson Ashray Sharma joined BJP before the 2017 HP assembly elections over seat allocation problems within the INC.  His son Anil Sharma  ran and won on the BJP ticket and became a minister in the HP government.   

Then earlier this year, Sukh Ram wanted is grandson  Ashray Sharma to be given the BJP ticket for Mandi which was denied.   Sukh Ram and his grandson Ashray Sharma rejoined INC who then field   Ashray Sharma as its candidate in Mandi.  Anil Sharma  stilled in BJP most likely because of the power that comes with being a minister of the state HP government.   

BJP then directed Anil Sharma to campaign against his son Ashray Sharma in Mandi as a member of the BJP cabinet of HP.  Anil Sharma refused.  Now the HP CM is telling Anil Sharma that he has to campaign against his son or else he will have to resign from the HP BJP cabinet.

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/campaign-bjp-quit-himachal-cm-tells-minister-1499836-2019-04-11


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 11, 2019, 08:22:22 pm
Some of the on the ground reports from the 8 Western UP seats that voted today does not sound good for the BJP.  The ground reports indicated that there is a surge of voting by Muslims, Dalits and Jats which are the communities that are likely to vote SP-BSP-RLD.  A RSS report seems to indicate that the BJP which won all 8 in 2014 are likely to lose 6 of them.  If this this would be very bad for BJP.  My current model for these 8 seats are 5 BJP and 3 SP-BSP-RLD with one of the seats going BJP is neck-to-neck.  My UP model overall gives NDA 35 out of 80 seats with the vote share near even between BJP-AD(S) and SP-BSP-RLD.  If the RSS report is true then the rest of UP could get ugly for BJP.  What the BJP will have to hope for if this report is true is that this swing is localized to the Jat vote that went to BJP in 2014 and to some extent even in 2014 assembly elections swung back to RLD.  With Jats only numerous in Western UP the BJP could perhaps recover in Central and Eastern UP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: S019 on April 11, 2019, 11:14:45 pm
Do you know how the INC/UPA can get enough seats to actually form a government, because from what I've seen either the NDA (BJP itself will not have a majority) will keep a majority or there will be a hung Parliament, but the NDA would get the first chance at government formation


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 12, 2019, 06:59:05 am
Do you know how the INC/UPA can get enough seats to actually form a government, because from what I've seen either the NDA (BJP itself will not have a majority) will keep a majority or there will be a hung Parliament, but the NDA would get the first chance at government formation

Let me first start with why this scenario is very unlikely.   Sonia Gandhi alluded to 2004 as a example of how the ruling bloc could lose.  On the surface the 2004 comparison is apt.  Before the election campaign started polls showed NDA with around 350 seats.  There were even claims by BJP that BJP itself will win 300 seats.  By the time the voting started most polls had NDA at around 290 seats which is similar to today.  The NDA graph continued to drop and exit polls done after each round of voting (which was allowed back then) had them dropping over time to around 250.  When the results came out NDA was at 189.   Now there are two factors here that make 2019 not a repeat of 2004.  First the momentum going into voting does not seem to be moving against NDA.  I do not see it going in favor of NDA either so it is a wave-less election whereas 2004 it was clear that the momentum was moving against NDA.  Second the nature of OTHERS in 2004 and 2019 are very different.  In 2004 NDA pretty much included all parties that could back BJP to form a government and OTHERS were pretty much SP BSP Left parties and various anti-BJP parties so once NDA failed to come close to majority they are out.  In 2019 the composition of OTHERS will be different.  The Left will be decimated so while OTHERS will include anti-BJP parties like AITC SP BSP they will also include parties that could do business with BJP like YSRCP TRS and BJD.  Using the game theory logic "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", I can see YSRCP (pro-INC TDP is its main enemy) and TRS(INC is its main enemy)  backing BJP and BJD (BJP is its main enemy) most likely not.  Still YSRCP and TRS between them will get most likely at least 30 seats.  So NDA can be at around 250 and still be in pole position to capture power.  The way for NDA to be kept out of power would be for NDA to be driven down to something like 200 which is unlikely given the wave-less nature of this election.  I think NDA is overestimated in the polls based on my state level anti-incumbency model but for NDA to driven down to 200 is very hard to see taking place.

So now lets to move to, assuming NDA does get pushed to 200, what are the chances of a UPA government.   I would say it depends on the HOW the NDA is pushed to 200.  If the NDA is pushed to 200 because BJP gets clobbered in places like UP (where SP-BSP will benefit),  WB (where AITC will benefit) and Odisha (where BJD will benefit) then that does not really help UPA in gaining seats which means UPA itself will still be stuck at around 150 seats.  In such a case the various anti-BJP regional parties will force INC to backed a non-INC PM since INC will not have the numbers or leverage.  In such a case NCP leader Sharad Pawar is the most likely PM candidate.  He have the added benefit of being able to pull in SHS to back him as the first Maratha PM.  Now if the NDA is driven to 2000 based on a setback in INC-BJP states like Uttarakhand, MP, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Haryana I can see UPA getting close to 190-200 seats itself in such a situation.   If this were the case then I think the UPA would be in a position to demand the various anti-BJP parties back a INC PM.  I am not certain that even in this sort of a case Rahul Gandhi would be PM.  Rahul Gandhi had to lead the INC campaign which means running against SP-BSP in UP and AITC in WB which does not help his relationships with these parties.  It is more likely that a more tenured INC leader with good rapport with SP BSP and AITC would be brought in in such a situation.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 12, 2019, 07:13:40 am
Some more alliance news

1) Looks like, I am not sure it is final, that the INC APP alliance talks have failed.  I am not sure how seriously I should take this news.  Delhi votes in Phase 6 so the filing of candidates does nos start until 4/23 so AAP and INC have another week to start yet around of alliance talks.

2) In Haryana, INLD splinter JJP have formed an alliance with AAP.  This is bad news for INC as this might pull some anti-BJP votes over to JJP-AAP instead of INC.  What this space since this might provoke BJP and INLD to form an alliance which I think is a BAD idea for both.  Such a BJP-INLD alliance will just drive what is left of the INLD vote over to JJP or INC.  So Haryana which was facing a 6 way battle (BJP vs INC vs BSP-LSP vs AAP vs JJP) will now become 5 way (BJP vs INC vs BSP-LSP vs AAP-JJP) and could become 4 way (BJP-INLD vs INC vs BSP-LSP vs AAP-JJP).

3) In good news for BJP, BJP Rajasthan Jat based splinter RLP which ran in the 2018 assembly elections and hit the BJP in some regions had decided to ally with BJP because talks with INC have broken down.  My understanding is that INC thinks it is in a strong position despite what the polls say and choose not to accommodate RLP who had to run back to BJP.   
 
4) Also good news for BJP in UP.  NISHAD party which is based on the Nishad catse broke with SP-BSP and decided to ally with BJP.  SP seems to really wanted NISAHD to be part of the alliance but SP have away some many seats to SP and RLD to get that alliance to work it could not give any to NISAHD.  The one NISHAD MP that was elected in a by-election last year with SP-BSP support will run on the BJP ticket.  The NISHAD party name is interesting and funny.  The party is a party that represents the fisherman based Nishad caste.  Indian election laws says a party could not make direct caste religious or community base appeals.  So when the party wanted to be called the Nishad  party it was rejected by the ECI.  So the party called itself the "Nirbal Indian Shosh**t Hamara Aam Dal" or NISHAD as an abbreviation as a workaround.  I think the fact is most parties make implicit and often explicit appeals based on caste or religious  lines so the ECI is better off just letting these parties do what they want to do then try to enforce a rule that is not enforceable anyway.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 12, 2019, 12:16:51 pm
If you look in detail on the turnout figure across different states now that more updated info are available you get some info on trends.

For J&K (2 out of 6 - 1 Jammu and 1 Kashmir seat) turnout increased slightly relative to 2014 which is mostly about the Jammu seat.  This means the BJP Hindu surge in Jammu continues and BJP should carry the 2 Jammu seats with ease.

For Odisha (4 out of 21) seats and WB (2 out of 42 seats) turnout was only a slight drop from 2014 turnout rates.  This sort of shows the energy of 2014 wave is still alive.  I read this as a continued desire for change and this trend should work in BJP's favor.

AP (25 out of 25) also saw a small dropoff in turns of turnout from 2014 and should be positive for YSRCP as part of that change narrative.

UP (8 out of 80), Bihar (4 out of 40) and Maharashtra (7 out of 48)  also had fairly small drop-off relative to 2014 but ground reports so far seems to indicate that the turnout surge are with Dalits Muslims Jats in UP and backwards in Bihar.  In Maharashtra  it is not clear about the nature of the drop but most likely it is related to the BJP-SHS alliance conflict which was patched up last minute.
 If so overall this is ominous news for the BJP.

Uttarakhand (5 out of 5)  had some drop-off in turnout but is still higher than 2009.   It seems the BJP will lose ground here as the Modi surge of 2014 has some decline but could be contained.

Telangana (17 out of 17)  had a large drop-off lin turnout (almost 9%) but that is almost certainly because there is no assembly election along with LS elections unlike 2014.  Things look like a replication of 2018 assembly elections and should be positive for TRS.

Assam (5 out of 14)  turnout dropped 9%-10% to levels close to 2009 LS elections.  It is not clear where the drop-off is but UPA did well in Assam and Maharashtra in 2009 and BJP has to hope the turnout fall are as much as about UPA voters as NDA votes.  But circumstantial evidence  says not.  We have citizenship bill issue and the BJP surge in 2014 which was partly about an anti-immigration push might not turn out over the Citizenship bill.

Overall reading tea leaves and I could be very wrong about this, the trend is BJP over-performing in WB, Odisha, and Jammu part of J&K but losing ground everywhere else.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 12, 2019, 12:27:21 pm
In AP, TDP leader and CM Naidu is complaining that a large number of EVM were malfunctioning in AP elections.  This is a pretty good sign that TDP have most likely lost the AP election. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: PSOL on April 12, 2019, 01:56:03 pm
Modi's party chief vows to throw illegal immigrants in India into Bay of Bengal (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-election-speech/modis-party-chief-vows-to-throw-illegal-immigrants-in-india-into-bay-of-bengal-idUSKCN1RO1YW)
Quote
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President Amit Shah referred such illegal immigrants as “termites”, a description he also used last September, when he drew condemnation from rights groups. The U.S. State Department also noted the remark in its annual human rights report.

“Infiltrators are like termites in the soil of Bengal,” Shah said on Thursday at a rally in the eastern state of West Bengal, as voting in India’s 39-day general election started.

“A Bharatiya Janata Party government will pick up infiltrators one by one and throw them into the Bay of Bengal,” he said, referring to illegal immigrants from neighboring Muslim-majority Bangladesh.



Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 12, 2019, 06:30:02 pm
Modi's party chief vows to throw illegal immigrants in India into Bay of Bengal (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-election-speech/modis-party-chief-vows-to-throw-illegal-immigrants-in-india-into-bay-of-bengal-idUSKCN1RO1YW)

Actually this headline is misleading as what he means to do is to expel all illegal Muslim immigrants.  The BJP vision as articulated in the new citizenship bill is that India is the homeland of all non-Muslim people of South Asia.  The BJP is for immigration, even if implicitly illegal (hard to know since the border can be quite porous), of all non-Muslims.   This has the support of non-Ahom Hindus in the Northeast but are opposed by tribal Christians and Ahom Hindus who fear Hindi immigrants as much as Muslim immigrants.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 12, 2019, 09:10:41 pm
Once I looked over the INC candidate list (so far) for UP I can sort of map out what the INC strategy in UP might be.  Out of the 80 UP seats the INC have solid candidates only in around 10-15 seats with another 10 that might gain some significant vote share.  The rest are either withdrawals for SP-BSP-RLD VIP candidates or just dummy candidates.  What the INC is mostly doing is to run strong Muslim candidates in heavy Muslim areas that BSP is running to cut into the BSP vote while mostly leaving SP alone.  Even when INC runs strong candidates against SP the community of the INC candidate makes it clear that INC is trying to cut into both BJP and SP candidates while a strong INC candidate running in BSP seats seems to have community makeup to cut into only BSP candidates.    Even when INC runs dummy candidates you can tell they are trying to cut into the BJP vote when a SP candidate is in the fray. 

So the INC strategy in UP seems clear: help the SP but hurt BSP.  The main reason for this is SP is local to UP but the BSP Dalit base in other Hindi heartland states are part of the vote share the INC needs to win back to be competitive with the BJP on the long run so trying to destroy BSP is part of the mid-term INC strategy.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 13, 2019, 07:20:35 am
TDP CM has gone to Delhi to protest the 30%-40% failure rate of EVM in AP elections claim that ECI is rigging the election on behalf of the BJP and YSRCP.  This is a clear sign that he has lost.  Also EVM mostly are rarely a source of fraud.  First EVM does not have wifi so it is pretty much impossible to "hack" EVMs.  Also rigging EVM to map a vote for candidate A to candidate B is unlikely because the sequence of candidates on EVM is by last name and not by party name so in each district the sequence of candidates are different.  So to rig the hardware to map a vote for position A to position B is possible but it is impossible to do that to help one party or another.

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 13, 2019, 08:03:53 am
New Delhi based Political Analysis & Research Centre predicted:

AP assembly: YSRCP 129 TDP 49 JSP 4
AP LS: YSRCP 18 TDP 7 (my model currently have it at YSRCP 20 TDP 5)
Telangana LS: TRS 14 AIMIM 1 BJP 1 INC 1 (my model currently have it at TRS 16 AIMIM 1)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 13, 2019, 08:07:31 am
In Goa BJP regional ally MGP have defected from BJP to back INC in LS elections.  In 2016 assembly elections MGP ran separately from BJP and caused BJP to fall behind INC in terms of seats.  After the election MGP backed BJP.  Then to ensure that MGP does not defect BJP got 2 out of 3 of MGP MLAs to defect to BJP.  Now MGP is hitting back by throwing its support to INC.  If the BJP was en route to win 2 out of 2 seats if MGP vote base does swing to INC then BJP will get most likely only 1.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 14, 2019, 08:29:36 am
There are rumors that Priyanka Gandhi has indicated that she will be willing to contest from Varanasi against Modi if INC Prez Rahul Gandhi is willing to support such a move.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections-2019/uttar-pradesh/news/will-congress-field-priyanka-from-varanasi/articleshow/68869768.cms

It is clear what the strategy is.  This move would enthuse INC morale and if she can tied down Modi to Varanasi so much the better.  I think a prerequisite for this would be for SP-BSP to back her as well so her likely defeat would by a fairly narrow margin and the Gandhi brand not damaged.

If Priyanka Gandhi were to run then it would be 5 members of the Gandhi clan that will run in UP.  Rahul Gandhi from Amethi, Sonia Gandhi from Rae Bareli, Maneka Gandhi of the BJP (daughter in law of Indira Gandhi and wife of her son Sanjay Gandhi) from Sultanpur, Varun Gandhi of the BJP (grandson of Indira Gandhi and son of Sanjay Gandhi) from Pilibhit, and now Priyanka Gandhi from Varanasi.

There are other rumors that Priyanka Gandhi's husband Robert Vadra might also contest as well.  Robert Vadra  have been wanting to join politics for a while but has been dogged by corruption allegations over a shady land deal.  He has been tentatively cleared by the courts, for now, and I guess now it is all clear for him and his wife  Priyanka Gandhi to jump into politics.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 14, 2019, 08:30:43 am
Example of someone hedging their bets.  Famous cricketer Ravindra Jadeja who seem want to get into politics in Gujarat had his wife join BJP last month and today have his father and sister join INC.

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/after-ravindra-jadeja-s-wife-joins-bjp-his-father-and-sister-join-congress-1501760-2019-04-14


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 14, 2019, 09:07:20 am
In the Nawada seat of Bihar which just voted it seems the election is criminal vs criminal.  The NDA candidate is LJP's Chandan Kumar Singh who is the brother of Surajbhan Singh, a feared criminal don of the 1990s who have since joined LJP.  On the UPA side is RJD's Veebha Devi, wife of a criminal don who is now behind bars for the rape of a minor.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 14, 2019, 04:28:05 pm
NDTV analysis of TN

Some demographics
()

TN fairly urbanized
()

TN elections historically have been lopsided
()

AIADMK does better with women.  But that most likely have to do with Jayalalitha who has passed away already
()

Jayalalitha's mobilization also have turned out women turnout over the years
()

The women mobilization has most been in rural areas
()

So I guess the key question is with Jayalalitha gone and AIADMK split can this rural women mobilization be maintained.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 15, 2019, 05:24:15 am
Quote
India’s enforcement agencies have so far seized cash, liquor, drugs, gold and other contraband worth 25 billion rupees ($361 million) as the country’s polling gets underway, already double the value of goods seized in the entire 2014 elections.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/cash-booze-and-gold-india-seizures-surge-compared-to-2014-vote/articleshow/68886631.cms


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 15, 2019, 05:29:07 am
SBSP who was BJP ally in UP in the 2017 assembly elections had decided to go it alone as the BJP could not spare enough seats to SBSP and insisted that any SBSP candidates run on the BJP symbol.  There will be some impact but not clear if it will swing any seats.  Similar to NISHAD going with BJP in UP in the other direction.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 15, 2019, 08:20:20 am
Looks like AAP and INC are converging toward a deal in Delhi.  It is mostly AAP backing down and accepting an AAP 4 INC 3 deal without a INC-AAP deal in Punjab or Haryana.  In Haryana  AAP made a deal with JJP which mostly excludes any deal with INC.  AAP also then dropped the link between Delhi and Punjab and have indicated it would accept an AAP 4 INC 3 deal.  Rahul Gandhi just tweeted that INC is ready to give 4 seats to AAP in Delhi.  So I guess now it is to work out the exact seats and wait for the AAP and INC rebels to emerge.  In the end AAP blinked and concluded that a AAP wipe-out in Delhi is relatively worse for AAP than INC.  INC will live no matter what but AAP might end up in the graveyard.  So in the game of chicken INC won.  In my view all of this assumes AAP-INC can win 5-6 seats in Delhi which I doubt.  They will be lucky to win 2 given the anti-incumbency against AAP.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 16, 2019, 07:41:33 am
Some recent stories of voter intimidation that does not make the BJP look good and could give a sign that while BJP should win it is not a BJP landslide

BJP MP in UP
Quote
In a video that has gained considerable attention on social media, Sakshi Maharaj, the Bharatiya Janata Party candidate for the Lok Sabha elections 2019 from Uttar Pradesh’s Unnao constituency, can be heard threatening to curse people if they do not vote for his party.
https://scroll.in/video/919877/watch-bjp-leader-sakshi-maharaj-threatens-to-curse-people-who-don-t-vote-for-him

Story on Maneka Gandhi. BJP MP and daughter-in-law of Indira Gandhi takes a page from Singapore's PAP
Quote
“We win in Pilibhit every time, so what is the parameter that we work more for one village and less for the other?” she asked at an election meeting. “The parameter is that we segregate all villages as A, B, C, and D. The village where we get 80% cent votes is A, the village in which we get 60% is B, the village in which we get 50% is C and the village where we get less than 50% is D.”
She elaborated: “The development work first happens in all A category villages. Then comes B and only after work in B is done, we start with C. So this is up to you whether you make it to A, B or C and no one should come in D because we all have come here to do good.”
https://scroll.in/article/920231/the-daily-fix-the-abcd-of-menaka-gandhis-contempt-for-indias-constitution

In Gujarat
Quote
BJP MLA Ramesh Katara told voters in Gujarat's Dahod that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has installed CCTV cameras in polling booths and will know if people voted for Congress
https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-dont-vote-for-congress-pm-modi-has-got-cctv-cameras-in-polling-booths-bjp-mla/328850


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 16, 2019, 04:29:31 pm
Looks like ECI have canceled elections in the TN district of Vellore.  It seems that a government raid revealed a warehouse controlled by the DMK candidate of $1.6 million dollars worth of cash which is to be used for vote buying.  DMK is crying foul that they are being framed by authorities which are focused on helping AIADMK-BJP.     

The race in Vellore is AIADMK splinter PNK for NDA vs DMK for UPA.  My current model has this race neck-to-neck with a tiny lead for PNK.  So I can see why vote buying would make sense here as it could make a difference.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lok-sabha-polls-in-tamil-nadus-vellore-cancelled-after-huge-cash-haul-2024089



Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 16, 2019, 04:38:16 pm
On the subject of TN when all of TN votes on Thursday as part of Phase II voting there will be 22 by-elections for TN assembly which could determine if the AIADMK government would fall or not.

The 2016 TN assembly election produced:

AIADMK   136

DMK          89
INC            8
MUL           1

AMMK won the by-election for Jayalalitha's seat and the pro-TTV Dinakaran faction of AIADMK defected to AMMK and were disqualified by the AIADMK speaker.  So now we have

AIADMK    114

AMMK          1

DMK           88
INC              8
MUL             1
 
with 22 by-elections needed.  If AIADMK does not win at least 4-5 out of the 22 by-elections it will lose its majority and most likely early TN assembly elections are needed.  In many ways this elections is more important that the TN LS elections.   NDTV reports that the going rate for vote buying for the LS elections is around $50 per vote but the going rate for assembly by-elections are around $300 per vote.   These 22 by-elections will be a 3 way battles between AIADMK vs DMK vs AMMK with what I have to assume as the DMK with the edge given the old AIADMK base is split down the middle between AIADMK and AMMK.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 17, 2019, 05:52:26 am
With APP-INC talks for Delhi alliance in progress there are more media analysis that claims that AAP-INC alliance will help in Delhi but not Haryana based on math.  I still think given the history of hostility between INC and AAP in Delhi that any alliance will be hard to work on the ground while in Haryana that is not the case and an opposition alliance can take advantage of anti-incumbency there against the BJP state government.     

https://www.hindustantimes.com/lok-sabha-elections/aap-congress-coalition-likely-to-fare-well-in-delhi-than-haryana-suggests-data/story-LR6EmKdb6YQxST2rTUvYuN.html


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 17, 2019, 05:55:40 am
This news18 analysis of the community backgrounds of the SP, BSP, and INC candidates in UP pretty much came to the conclusion I did a while ago, that INC and SP have a de facto understanding to help each other cut into BJP votes while it is all out war between INC and BSP.

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/eye-on-post-poll-scenarios-congress-and-sp-pick-candidates-that-minimise-mutual-damage-2104317.html

Once I looked over the INC candidate list (so far) for UP I can sort of map out what the INC strategy in UP might be.  Out of the 80 UP seats the INC have solid candidates only in around 10-15 seats with another 10 that might gain some significant vote share.  The rest are either withdrawals for SP-BSP-RLD VIP candidates or just dummy candidates.  What the INC is mostly doing is to run strong Muslim candidates in heavy Muslim areas that BSP is running to cut into the BSP vote while mostly leaving SP alone.  Even when INC runs strong candidates against SP the community of the INC candidate makes it clear that INC is trying to cut into both BJP and SP candidates while a strong INC candidate running in BSP seats seems to have community makeup to cut into only BSP candidates.    Even when INC runs dummy candidates you can tell they are trying to cut into the BJP vote when a SP candidate is in the fray. 

So the INC strategy in UP seems clear: help the SP but hurt BSP.  The main reason for this is SP is local to UP but the BSP Dalit base in other Hindi heartland states are part of the vote share the INC needs to win back to be competitive with the BJP on the long run so trying to destroy BSP is part of the mid-term INC strategy.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 17, 2019, 11:52:33 am
Now it is the INC's turn to threaten voters.  INC Chhattisgarh minister tells voters that if they vote for anyone else other than INC the EVM will give them an electric shock.

https://scroll.in/latest/920390/voters-will-suffer-electric-shock-if-they-press-second-third-button-on-evm-chhattisgarh-minister


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 18, 2019, 07:28:41 am
Voting for phase 2 almost done.  Phase 2 includes all of TN.  Money power seems to be a lot stronger in TN than previous elections.   In 2014 around $2.3 in cash was sized by authorities in TN that was related to vote buying.  In 2019 that number have surged to over $29 million.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 18, 2019, 08:00:41 am
Prelim ECI figures on turnout.  Most likely will be adjusted upward by a few percentages.   If so turnout will mostly mimic 2014 with a small drop across the board.

()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 18, 2019, 08:02:27 am
Example of cash seized by ECI.

()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 18, 2019, 08:13:41 am
Turnout in Srinagar in Kashmir will most likely be around 17% which is higher than the 7% in the 2017 by-election but still low.  The level of militancy which have been dropping in the 1995-2010 period is rising again and this type of turnout is reflective of the anger as well as the relative safety given threats from radical separatist groups. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 18, 2019, 09:30:00 am
I have been reading up on defections this LS election and found the one in Ahmednagar in Maharashtra quite interesting and  at the same time gives us some clues on how things are going. 

The situation in Ahmednagar is Sujay Vikhe Patil, the son of the INC leader of opposition in the state assembly Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil,  defected to BJP and was given the BJP ticket to run.  The BJP dropped the incumbent Dilip Kumar Gandhi who won here in 1999 2009 and 2014 whose son will be running as a BJP rebel.    Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil the father of the INC defector seems to insist that he will stay in INC but was seen campaigning for his son who is now running on the BJP ticket.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lok-sabha-elections-2019-congress-red-faced-maharashtra-leader-campaigns-for-son-who-joined-bjp-2023895

The background of this is interesting.  INC leader of the opposition in the state assembly Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil is the son of Balasaheb Vikhe Patil who is a long time INC leader who passed away in 2016.  Balasaheb Vikhe Patil was a key rival to Sharad Pawar (who went on to form NCP in 1999) inside the INC.  When Sharad Pawar was giving the power to run the INC campaign in Maharashtra in 1998,  Balasaheb Vikhe Patil defected to SHS who fielded him in Ahmednagar and defeated the INC candidate despite a INC sweep in the rest of Maharashtra.  In 1999 Sharad Pawar split from INC and formed NCP.     Balasaheb Vikhe Patil stayed in SHS given the national wave seems to be on the BJP side in 1999.  The Ahmednagar seat was given by SHS to BJP so Balasaheb Vikhe Patil ran for SHS in another seat and won.  But soon after that Balasaheb Vikhe Patil defected back to INC running for in this nearby seat and winning in 2004.  As for  Ahmednagar Dilip Kumar Gandhi ran and won in 1999 with the INC and NCP candidate splitting the anti-BJP vote.   In 2004 INC-NCP formed an alliance and the seat was given to NCP and BJP dropped Dilip Kumar Gandhi which resulted in the victory of NCP in 2004.  In 2009 Dilip Kumar Gandhi came back to run for BJP and defeated the NCP candidate due to the presence of an INC rebel.  In 2014 Dilip Kumar Gandhi won in a landslide over NCP on the Modi wave.

Now in 2019 Balasaheb Vikhe Patil  has passed away and his son Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil is the INC leader of the opposition in the state assembly.  Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil wanted Ahmednagar to be given back to INC by NCP who the Patil clan view as a rival given the Patil-Pawar rivalry going back decades so his own son Sujay Vikhe Patil can run here.  INC-NCP talks led to NCP retaining the seat so    Sujay Vikhe Patil defected to BJP who gave him the ticket to run for BJP and dropping Dilipkumar Mansukhlal Gandhi along the way. Dilipkumar Mansukhlal Gandhi's son jumped in as a BJP rebel.

The Patil family is called a "sugar baron" since they control all the sugar mills in the area and all the sugar co-ops and workers are dependent on them economically so for the BJP the Patil clan is a nice catch.  The question is, why would the BJP spend the political capital to bring on board the Patil clan when in 2014 the result was

BJP    57.0%
NCP   37.3%

The BJP dropped an incumbent who won by 20% last election to import an rebel from INC and along the way provoked an internal BJP rebellion.  It logically does not make sense.  The logical expatiation would be a combination of BJP's desire to get the Patil clan on-board which would be useful later in the year in state assembly elections and the fact that BJP-SHS, at least in this area, is nowhere as strong as 2014 as the Modi wave recedes so this is a risk worth taking.  If so then at least in central Maharashtra the BJP-SHS might be in more trouble than recent polling would suggest. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 18, 2019, 06:44:33 pm
In UP, a Dalit BSP supporter voted for BJP by mistake and chopped his finger off in anger and then put this news on social media.

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/dalit-youth-bsp-supporter-chops-finger-vote-bjp-elections-mistake-1505330-2019-04-18


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 18, 2019, 06:54:49 pm
My initial reactions to the turnout figures are

1) TN turnout seems to have stayed at historic highs which in the current context is pretty negative for AIADMK-BJP combine.
2) UP an Bihar turnout might fall somewhat which I guess is receding of the Modi wave the clearly took place in 2014.  What is interesting is that in Muslim areas in Bihar turnout if anything is higher than 2014.  Of course this narrative might be reversed if more up-to-date figures show the turnout falloff ends up being very small.
3) Karnataka turnout seems to have dropped off significantly.    Either this is a falloff in the Modi wave or it is INC and JD(S) voters not voting due to anger of the INC-JD(S) alliance which does not seem to be working on the ground.  Most likely it is both so I think these two effects might be canceling each other out.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 18, 2019, 07:19:34 pm
The AAP-INC alliance talks collapsed again.  It seems once again it is over AAP's desire to link it to an alliance in Haryana.  The back an forth seems to be:

INC: Lets go for an alliance in Delhi where it is AAP 4 seats INC 3 seats
AAP:  Either it is AAP 5 seats INC 2 seats in Delhi OR AAP 4 seats INC 3 seats in Delhi IF there is also an INC-AAP alliance in Haryana
INC: AAP 5 seats INC 2 seats in Delhi is not acceptable.  What sort of alliance do you propose in Haryana
AAP: In Haryana we already formed an alliance with JJP where it is JJP 7 seats AAP 3 seats.  Just for you we are willing to accept INC 6 seats JJG 3 seats AAP 1 seat.
INC: No, in Haryana the best we can do is INC 7 seat JJP 2 seats AAP 1 seat
AAP: There is no way we can get JJP to accept that
INC: OK, so I guess the alliance talks are coming to an end.


Still with 3-4 more days before candidates are finalized I suspect there will be one more round of brinkmanship before this alliance is truly dead.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 18, 2019, 07:29:22 pm
One thing that is interesting about the on again off again AAP-INC alliance talks are that the BJP now is constantly delaying coming out with its own candidate list.  BJP ideally want to know if the AAP-INC alliance is on before figuring out which candidates to run in Delhi.  All 7 Delhi incumbents are from BJP and for them this is torture since they cannot really get going to spend the money and resources to mobilize for the election.  I am not if that is a feature or a bug of the AAP-INC on again and off again alliance talks but in Delhi candidate selection has become frozen for the BJP.  To some extend this sort of proves that the BJP bravado that BJP will win all 7 Delhi seats no matter what is not really true although I personally think the BJP will have the edge in Delhi one way or another.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 19, 2019, 07:24:28 am
A first since 1995.  Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav, both former UP CM and bitter enemies for decades, now finally share the same stage.  SP-BSP formed an alliance in 1993 to stop BJP and ruled UP in 1995 when they had a massive falling out.  Now they are together again to stop BJP.

()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 19, 2019, 07:40:13 pm
In a dramatic turn a couple days ago the BJP have nominated Pragya Singh Thakur for Bhopal in MP against former INC CM Digvijaya Singh.  Pragya Singh Thakur was a student leader and a what can best described as a Hindu nun who is the main accused in a 2008 terrorist attack in a bombing of a mosque.  Her trail in in progress and she is out on bail. Since she is not convicted, yet, she is eligible to contest.
()

It seems the BJP is hoping this will provoke a large emotional response from Muslims to help BJP to counter-polarize Hindu votes.  This seems to indicate voting in the first couple of rounds is not going as well as the BJP have hoped and stronger medicine is needed to consolidate the Hindu vote.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 20, 2019, 06:06:48 pm
Latest covter survey shows that the salience of economic issues continues to rise while national security continues to decline after the peak reached during the terror attack plus the response.
()

Similar trend for approval of Modi/BJP
()

Breakdown by state shows a familiar pattern where national security has greater salience in states the BJP is expected to do well
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 08:34:39 pm
NDTV analysis of Karnataka

Points out that in the 14 seats that have voted in Karnataka turnout have fallen
()

Impact of INC-JD(S) alliance is fairly minor since JD(S) is weak in Northern Karnataka and have overlapping strength with INC in Southern Karnataka
()
()

Which happens to match poll of polls
()

Community breakdown in Karnataka
()

Gives info on how communities vote
()
()

Impact of swings fairly large in Karnataka
()

BJP stronger with men
()

BJP stronger with youth
()

BJP stronger in urban areas
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 21, 2019, 08:39:21 pm
The alliances in J&K are fairly complicated.  Due to the trauma of the end of the BJP-PDP alliance ancient rivals JKN and PDP are now ready to cooperate in limited ways now. 

In Kashmir it is BJP vs INC where JKN and PDP are backing INC.
In Jammu it is PDP vs JKN where INC are tactically backing JKN.  BJP is in the fray but as a bit player.
In Ladakh it is INC vs BJP vs ISK where JKN and PDP are both backing ISK in order to consolidate the Muslim vote while INC and BJP fight over the Buddhist vote.
 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 23, 2019, 10:42:37 am
Phase III done.  Turnout numbers by state are

Chhattisgarh: 68.62%
Karnataka: 65.29%
Gujarat: 61.71%
Goa: 71.34%
Kerala: 76.35%
West Bengal: 79.36%
Jammu and Kashmir: 12.86%
Assam: 79.16%
Bihar: 59.97%
Maharashtra: 57.53%
Tripura: 78.67%
Odisha: 58.18%
Uttar Pradesh: 58.91%
Dadra and Nagar Haveli: 71.43%
Daman and Diu: 65.34%

Turnout roughly the same as 2014.  Gujarat turnout down a couple of percentages points.  Most likely negative news, even if slightly, for BJP.  Odisha turnout down significantly.  Not clear if this is due to BJD base not turning out of a decline of the Modi wave. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 24, 2019, 01:59:43 pm
Updated projection from me now that we are half way done with voting.  Mostly the same as before with some minor adjustments.

My basic approach is to view the election as a confederation of state elections.  The main driver being state level anti-incumbency.   If a state just held an assembly election then I tend to think polls underestimate the incumbent party,  if the state held assembly elections 1-2 years ago then I think polls tend to be par.  If the state had assembly elections 4-5 years ago then I tend to think polll overestimate the incumbent party. 

Based on that principle I created separate models every state to generate swings and also take into account key changes in candidates and alliance dynamics.   I did not take into account rebels yet so the vote share calculations are mostly overestimating the dominate parties.

J&K: I decided to break up my projection by each region (Kashmir, Ladakh, Jammu)

Kashmir:
Very low turnout so who knows what will take place.  But generally slight edge for JKN

2019
NDA:       0 BJP          3.7%
UPA:        0 INC         2.2% (tactically alliance with JKN)
Others     2 JKN        41.2% (tactical alliance with INC)
               1 PDP       34.3%
               0 JPC       12.5% (Separatist)

2014
NDA:      0 (0 BJP)                   1.4%
UPA:       0 (0 JKN)                34.9%
Others:   3 PDP                     46.9%
              0 JPC                       6.3%


Ladakh:
4 way battle with INC winning as it gains Buddhist vote from BJP

NDA:       0 BJP          23.6%
UPA:        1 INC         33.2% 
Others     0 ISK          28.1% (backed by JKN and PDP) 
               1 INC rebel  13.1%

2014
NDA:      1 (1 BJP)                 26.6%
UPA:       0 (0 INC)                22.6%
Others:   0 ISK                      24,2%
              0 INC rebel              26.6%


Jammu:
Hindu consolidation should see BJP through

2019
NDA:       2 BJP        46.3%
UPA:        0 INC       41.3% (backed by JKN and PDP)
Others     0 BJP rebel  5.0%
 
2014
NDA:      2 (2 BJP)                 48.6%
UPA:       0 (0 INC)                34.6%
              0 PDP                      8.7%



HP:
Mostly replicates 2017 assembly elections, high number of Upper Caste voters gives BJP a sweep.

2019
NDA: 4 BJP     53.7%
UPA: 0 INC     43.4%

2014
NDA: 4 BJP      53.9%
UPA: 0 INC      41.1%


Haryana:
INLD split with splinter JPP helps both BJP and INC.  BJP splinter LSP does not make that much of an impact other than in the seat of the LSP leader.

2019
NDA:      7 BJP              39.7%
UPA:      3 INC              28.4%
Others:  0  BSP-LSP        7.3%
             0 INLD              6.3%
             0 JJP-AAP        15.4%

2014:
NDA:     7 (7 BJP 0 HJC)        40.9%
UPA:     1 INC                       23.0%
Others: 2 INLD                     24.4%
            0 BSP                        4.6%
            0 AAP                        4.3%


Punjab:
AAP has lost a lot of ground since 2017 assembly elections.  They could have gone to SAD to hurt INC.  But most of that support seems to gone to AAP splinter PEP which split the anti-INC vote to help INC.

2019
NDA:     4 (4 SAD, 0 BJP)     34.1%
UPA:     9 INC                     38.5%
Others: 0 BSP-PEP-LIF         12.0%
            0 AAP                     11.8%

2014:
NDA:     6 (4 SAD, 2 BJP)  35.2%
UPA:     3 INC                  33.2%
Others: 4 AAP                  24.5%
            0 BSP                   1.9%


Delhi
AAP landslide victory of 2015 assembly elections is now a distant memory with AAP administration losing a lot of credibility.    AAP loses support  back to INC which means BJP sweeps the polls again

2019
NDA:    7 BJP     42.4%
UPA:     0 INC    25.2%
Others: 0 AAP    27.6%

2014:
NDA:    7 BJP   46.6%
UPA:     0 INC  15.2%
Others: 0 AAP  33.1%


Uttarakhand
Results will mostly mimic 2017 assembly election with BJP losing some ground due to anti-incumbency which is partly mitigated by Modi's popularity in the Hindu heartland 

2019
NDA:     4 BJP           47.7%
UPA:     1 INC           43.5%
Others  0 BSP             5.5%

2014:
NDA:    5 BJP    55.9%
UPA:     0 INC    34.4%
Others: 0 BSP     4.8%


UP:
SP-BSP-RLD Grand Alliance consolidates backward vote to beat back BJP.  INC resurgence in some seats and SP splinter PSP cuts into Grand Alliance votes and prevents even greater BJP losses.

2019
NDA:    33 (31 BJP 1 AD(S))                            40.4%
UPA:      2 INC-JAP-AD (2 INC)                        11.1%
Others: 45 SP-BSP-RLD(23 SP 20 BSP 2 RLD )  42.2%
             0 PSP-PECP                                        2.4%

2014
NDA:    73 (71 BJP 2 AD)   43.6%
UPA:       2 INC                   8.5%
Others:   5 SP                   22.3%
              0 BSP                 19.8%


Bihar:
Nitish Kumar's popularity pulls NDA ahead despite anti-incumbency.  CPI(ML) has tactical alliance with UPA.
 
2019
NDA:   28 (15 BJP 8 JD(U) 5 LJP)                      48.3%
UPA:    12 (5 RJD 5 INC 1 RLSP 1 HAM 0 VIP)    39.6%
Others   0 CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI                               3.2%

2014
NDA:   31 (22 BJP 6 LJP 3 RLSP)         39.5%
UPA:     7 (4 RJD 2 INC 1 NCP)           30.3%
Others: 2 JD(U)-CPI (2 JD(U) 0 CPI)   17.2%


MP
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory
 
2019
NDA:  19 BJP              48.2%
UPA:   10 INC             43.8%
Others 0 SP-BSP-GGP   4.7%

2014
NDA:  27 BJP     54.8%
UPA:    2 INC     35.4%


Rajasthan
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory

2019
NDA: 18 BJP (17 BJP 1 RLP)     50.3%
UPA:   7 INC                           44.9%

2014
NDA: 25 BJP    55.6%
UPA:   0 INC    30.7%


Chhattisgarh
Tribal votes seems to be shifting away from BJP which adds to the INC edge after the 2018 assembly election victory which will contain the Modi wave in Upper Caste areas.

2019
NDA:    3 BJP          41.7%
UPA:     8 INC         47.5%
Others: 0 BSP-JCC    5.3%

2014
NDA:  10 BJP    49.7%
UPA:    1 INC    39.1%


Jharkhand
INC-JMM-JVM  alliance will create a base too large for BJP to beat even with AJSU alliance, especially given anti-incumbency building up.  In the end RJD had a tactical alliance with UPA

2019
NDA:    3 (5 BJP 0 AJSU)                      40.4%
UPA:   11 (4 JMM 4 INC 2 JVM )            45.0%
Others: 1 RJD                                       3.3%

2014
NDA:  12 BJP                            40.7%                 
UPA:    2 (2 JMM 0 INC 0 RJD)    24.6%
Others:0 JVM                            12.3%
           0 AJSU                            3.8%


Gujarat
INC make s a slight comeback but the Modi wave is still powerful in his home state.

2019
NDA:  21 BJP        52.9%
UPA:    5 INC        41.8%

2014
NDA:  26 BJP                       60.1%
UPA:    0 (0 INC 0 NCP)        34.4%


Maharashtra
BJP got SHS to come aboard to an alliance which might not work on the ground.  INC and NCP deeply divided but does have de facto NMS support.  Dalit-Muslim BVA will split the INC-NCP vote and help give NDA a partial victory despite anti-incumbency.

2019
NDA:       33 (19 BJP 14 SHS)                             47.5%
UPA:        15 (5 INC 8 NCP 1 SWP 1 BVA 0 YSP)   42.0%
Others:     0 VBA                                                 3.9%

2014
NDA:    42 (23 BJP 18 SHS 1 SWP)         51.6%
UPA:      6 (2 INC 4 NCP)                       35.0%
Others:  0 NMS                                       1.5%


Goa
BJP government in turmoil should give INC a chance

2019
NDA:  1 BJP     49.9%
UPA:   1 INC    43.8%

2014
NDA: 2 BJP    54.1%
UPA:  0 INC   37.0%


WB:
Left Front implosion and lack of INC-Left Front tactical alliance will doom Left Front.  BJP surges as it captures the anti-incumbency vote.

2019
NDA:      12 BJP             34.3%
UPA:         3 INC              7.8%
Others:   27 AITC           39.7%
               0  Left Front    15.4%

2014
NDA:      2 BJP           17.0%
UPA        4 INC            9.7%
Others: 34 AITC         39.8%
             2 Left Front   30.1%


Orissa:
INC imploding and anti-incumbency votes going to BJP leads to a shock BJP narrow victory here. 

2019
NDA:    13 BJP                         40.1%
UPA:      0 INC-JMM-CPI-CPM    20.2%
Others:  8 BJD                         36.7%

2014
NDA:     1 BJP     21.9%
UPA       0 INC    26.4%
Others: 20 BJD   44.8%


Karnataka
INC-JD(S) alliance will not work well on the ground letting BJP fight INC-JD(S) to a tie.

2019
NDA:        14 (14 BJP 0 BJP Ind)  47.1%
UPA:        14 (11 INC 4 JD(S))     46.2%
Otherss:     0 UPP                        3.0%

2014
NDA:   17 BJP      43.4%
UPA:     9 INC      41.2%
Others: 2 JD(S)   11.2%


AP
5 way battle and JSP splitting the anti-incumbency vote  allows TDP to avoid a total wipe-out. YSRCP most likely will back BJP post-election.  YSRCP alliance with TRS also drives some anti-Telagana votes to TDP.

2019
NDA:       0 BJP                       5.0%
UPA:        0 INC                      4.2%
Others:  20 YSRCP                 41.1%
              5 TDP                     35.2%
              0 JSP-BSP               10.2% (tactical alliance with Left)
              0 CPI-CPM-CPM(ML)   2.2% (tactical alliance with JSP-BSP)

2014
NDA:    17 (15 TDP 2 BJP)    48.0%
UPA:       0 INC                     2.9%
Others:   8 YSRCP                45.7%


Telangana
TRS to repeat the 2018 assembly election landslide.  CPI TDP are backing to INC to no avail as AIMIM has a tactical alliance with TRS.  YSRCP pretty much pulled out of the state to back TRS.

2019
NDA:      0 BJP                   13.7%
UPA:       0 INC                  31.3%
Others: 16 TRS                  45.5%
              1 AIMIM                2.7%
              0 JSP-BSP             2.9% (tactical alliance with CPI-CPM)
              0 CPI-CPM            1.0% (tactical alliance with JSP-BSP)

2014
NDA:      2 (1 BJP 1 TDP)     22.8%
UPA:      2 INC                    25.7%
Others: 11 TRS                   34.9%
             1 YSRCP                 4.5%
             1 AIMIM                 3.5%


TN
AIADMK split into splinter AMMK and anti-incumbency will defeat NDA despite the size of the alliance.  The NDA defeat could end up being worse than this.   NMN eats into the UPA vote or else it will be a massive UPA landslide.

Note Vellore election was called off but my projection will still be based on all 39 seats.

2019
NDA:      7 (3 AIADMK 2 BJP 1 PMK 1 DMDK 0 PT 0 TMC 1 PNK)         35.7%
UPA      32 (18 DMK 8 INC 2 VCK 2 CPI 2 CPM 0 MUL 1 IJK 0 KMDK )  43.9%
Others:  0 AMMK-SDPI                                                                    11.7%
             0 NMN                                                                                5.6%
             
2014
NDA:       2 (1 PMK 1 BJP 0 DMDK 0 MDMK)     18.7%
UPA:       0 INC                                                4.4%
Others:  39 AIADMK                                       44.9%
              0 DMK                                             27.2%


Kerala
Sabarimala temple issue will crush Left Front and lead to a large scale defection of Left Front vote to BJP who will finally win a seat in Kerala.  This and anti-incumbency will lead to a UPA landslide.  Rahul Gandhi running in Kerala is part of the UPA moving in for the kill.
 
2019
NDA:       1 (1 BJP 0 BDJS 0 KEC(T))              21.3%
UPA:      17 (13 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)  42.1%
Others:   2  Left Front                                   33.6%

2014
NDA:     0 BJP                                              10.9%
UPA:    12 (8 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)      42.5%
Others:  8 Left Front                                    41.6%


Assam
NDA was about to sweep the state until the new citizenship bill.  Now it is a real fight with anti-incumbency building up.  AIUDF only running in 3 seats helps INC partly but also drives Hindu votes away from INC to NDA.

2019
NDA:       7 (6 BJP 1 BPF 0 AGP)     43.7%
UPA:        4 INC                            38.5%
Others:    3 AIUDF                         11.4%

2014
NDA:      7 BJP                    38.7%
UPA:       3 (3 INC 0 BPF)     31.5%
Others:   3 AIUDF                15.0%
              1 ex-ULFA               4.2%
              0 AGP                     3.9%


6 Federal districts
I expect here to be a small swing away from NDA to UPA with INC gaining a seat

2019
NDA:     4 (4 BJP 0 AINRC)
UPA:     2 (1 INC 1 NCP)

2014
NDA:      5 (4 BJP 1 AINRC)
UPA:     1 (0 INC 1 NCP)


11 Northeast seats
Before the new citizenship bill NDA was going to sweep.  Now several pro-BJP parties are running separately and away from BJP.  Still NDA plus pro-NDA parties will have the edge. 

2019
NDA:     6 (5 BJP 1 NDPP 1)
UPA:      1 INC
Others:  0 Left Front
             4 pro-NDA (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 UDP 1 MNF)

2014
NDA:      4 (1 BJP 1 NPF 1 NPP 1 SDF)
UPA:      5 INC
Others:  2 Left Front


The total result of all this are

NDA: 251 (210 BJP)  39.1% (31.4% BJP)
UPA   155 (101 INC)  30.8% (22.7% INC)

Back in 2014 it was

NDA:  336 (282 BJP)  38.5% (31.1% BJP)
UPA:     59 ( 44 INC)  23.1% (19.3% INC)

So the BJP vote share are mostly similar to 2014 but INC saw a moderate increase.

In 2019
BJP will come in first place in 210 seats and second place 160 seats making its "reach" 370
INC will come in first place in 101 seats and second place 162 seats making its "reach" 263

In 2014
BJP come in first place in 282 seats and second place 54  seats making its "reach" 336
INC will come in first place in 44 seats and second place 224 seats making its "reach" 268

So INC's "reach" stayed around the same (it became more relevant in TN but lost relevance in WB, Odisha and the Northesst) and BJP's "reach" increased  by 40 some seats (mostly in WB, Odisha and the Northeast)

Rest of the seats are
Pro-NDA            4 (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 UDP 1 MNF)
Pro-UPA             7 (5 TDP 2 JKN)
Federal Front     44 (20 YSRCP 16 TRS 8 BJD)
Grand Alliance   72 (27 AITC 23 SP 20 BSP 2 RLD)
Left                   5 (2 Left Front 2 CPI 1 CPM) [2 CPI 1 CPM from alliance with UPA in TN)
Anti-NDA           5 (3 AIUDF 1 AIMIM 1 PDP)


NDA should be able to form a government with pro-NDA parties and some Federal Front party support.  YSRCP will for sure back NDA as most likely will TRS.  BJD might stay away to deal with its new rival the BJP in Odisha.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 24, 2019, 03:24:23 pm
The main story of this election is about the regression to the mean for the BJP in its core states and its battle to try to make up for it in non-core states.

I define BJP core states are the North where Hindi is dominate plus some pro-BJP Western states.  Collectively they are: Jammu of J&K, HP, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Uttarakhand, UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Chandigarh, D&N H, and D&D.  These states and and federal territories make up 319 out of 543 seats.  The rest of India or non-core states make up 224. seats.

In 2014 BJP won 248 out of 319 seats core seats.  NDA overall won 282 out of 319 seats (or 88%) to UPA's 24 seats.   In non-core states the BJP won 34 out of 224 seats with NDA winning 54 out of 224 seats (or 24%) to 35 for UPA.

So the problem for the BJP is that a 88% win ratio is going to be hard to replicate and regression to the mean would mean large losses even if NDA/BJP continues to do well in these seats.  This is why the BJP has to enter into non-core states to try to expand NDA/BJP.  This would be places like WB, Odisha, TN and the Northeast.  And the BJP has to contend with losing TDP in AP as a ally and source of possible seats.

If you take my current projection.  I project that the BJP will go to 156 out of 319 core seats with NDA winning 190 out of 319 seats (or 60%) to UPA's 84 seats.  60% strike rate is still very good but this does mean a massive loss of 92 seats for NDA. 

For non-core states I project BJP will win 54 seats with NDA winning 61 out of 224 seats (or 27%) to 71 for NDA.   A gain of 7 seats for NDA is actually quite impressive given the loss of 17 seats it won in 2014 which are all lose for 2019 given the departure of TDP for NDA.  So the NDA actually achieved a growth of 24 seats in non-cores seats.  If you add in the 4 pro-NDA parties seats in the Northeast  it pushes the NDA strike rate in non-core seats to 29% AFTER the loss of TDP in AP. 

But all of this is nowhere enough to make up for the loss of 92 seats for the NDA in core seats.

This is the explanation of why the NDA vote share in 2014 and 2019 are similar but with very different seat outcomes.  In core seats the sensitively to seat losses with vote share loss are high since they are often bipolar seats where a swing against BJP will bring large losses.  In non-core states the NDA vote share was so low in 2014 that a large vote share swing for NDA which makes up for the vote share losses in core states does not even come close to making up for seat losses.   

In other words in 2014 the NDA had an unusually good vote distribution as far as vote share to seat share conversion was concerned.  2019 is a shift to a more normal distribution of vote for the NDA and it will cost it in terms of seats.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 25, 2019, 09:13:22 am
https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/a-socialist-tuesday/

Seems to have done some ground reporting/analysis of the 10 UP seats that voted in Phase III.  The result seem pretty negative for BJP.   These 10 seats are mostly in Yadav heavy areas and in 2014 it went 7 BJP 3 SP.  They have BJP losing 6 seats for sure and the other 4 (Aonla, Bareilly, Etah and Pilibhit) being tossups where they expect BJP to win 2 out of 4.  My model agree with their analysis in the sense that we agree on the 3 seats BJP won in 2014 that it will lose to SP (Moradabad, Rampur, Sambhal.  On the 4 tossups seats they have I have all of them going to BJP by anywhere between 3% to 10%.   Pilibhit is Varun Gandhi's seat (grandson of Indira Gandhi and son of deceased Sanjay Gandhi) and if that is a tossup then that is truly problematic for BJP.   My model has NDA at 33 seats and 40.3% vote share in UP.  If this projection is true then NDA might be looking at low 20s in terms of seats and something like 36%-37% vote share.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 25, 2019, 09:37:32 am
Thinking about my concept of core-BJP states of (Jammu of J&K, HP, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Uttarakhand, UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Chandigarh, D&N H, and D&D.) which make up 319 out of 543 seats versus non-core seats which make up 224 out of 543 seats.  It seems it would be good to look at the history of BJP, BJP allies and NDA seats since 1991 grouped by core and non-core seats.


                      BJP                          BJP Allies                          NDA
          Core   Non-Core  Total    Core  Non-Core   Total     Core  Non-Core   Total
1991   113          7        120       4          0            4          117      7           124
1996   154          7        161      25         0           25         179      7           186
1998   153        29        182     29        46           75         182     75           257
1999   150        32        182      44       75         119         194    107          301
2004   109        29        138      27       24           51         136     53          189
2009     91        25        116      41        3           44          132     28          160
2014   248        34        282      34       21           55         282     55          337
2019   156        54        210      34       11           45         190     65          255

2019 are my current projections

The story is pretty clear.  
1) In 1991 BJP had no allies nut was strong in its core seats but nowhere in non-core seats.  
2) In 1996 there was a BJP surge in just its core seats with the help of allies but still nowhere in non-core seats.
3) In 1998 BJP got a bunch of allies in non-core seats while repeating its 1996 results in core seats to be able to form government.  
4) In 1999 being in government allowed the BJP to rope in more allies in core states but especially in non-core states to get to a majority for NDA by itself.  
5) 2004 saw BJP and allies lose ground across the board in both core and non-core seats as the NDA is ousted from power.  
6) In 2009 with the help with allies in core states the NDA repeated its performance in 2004 for core seats but the loss of allies in non-core seats saw BJP still hold its 2004 ground there but NDA loses ground due to loss of allies.
7) In 2014 there as a massive Modi wave in core seats which allowed the BJP to win over some allies in non-core seats and improve NDA tallies there as well. A  BJP majority on its own was pretty much built by the unprecedented saturation of BJP in core seats.
8  ) In 2019 my projections have BJP falling to 1996-1999 levels in core seats which represents the historical norm for a good BJP election but not a fantastic one (like in 2014) and BJP gaining a lot of ground on its own in non-core seats with fairly little help from allies.

If my 2019 projection is correct then the main trend of 2019 is the expansion of BJP into some non-core states (WB and Odisha) without help of allies while growth for BJP in the South still stunted while in core seats it is above reversion to the mean to a good but not excellent result for BJP.  What Modi and BJP has to hope for is that in core states the 2014 set a new benchmark for the BJP and that another excellent result for BJP is achievable.  


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 25, 2019, 09:57:11 am
It seems INC have nominated a ex-MLA and its 2014 candidate for Varanasi which means that Priyanka Gandh will not contest.  I guess INC high command made a call that tying down Modi  in Varanasi it not worth making this election more "Presidential" by having a high profile face-off.  The key to INC has to be to have less of Modi in the media.  Not having a high profile contest I guess was their call to achieve that.    I still feel that having Rahul Gandhi run against Modi sets him up the best to become PM in 2024.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on April 25, 2019, 05:43:34 pm
What News channel do you watch, because the vast majority of channels are broadcasted in Hindi not English.

I cant stand any of them but which one do you watch


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 25, 2019, 06:15:39 pm
What News channel do you watch, because the vast majority of channels are broadcasted in Hindi not English.

I cant stand any of them but which one do you watch

NDTV (mostly neutral)
https://www.youtube.com/user/ndtv

India Today (slightly pro-BJP)
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYPvAwZP8pZhSMW8qs7cVCw

Newsx (pro-BJP)
https://www.youtube.com/user/newsxlive

Quint (anti-BJP)
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSaf-7p3J_N-02p7jHzm5tA

Times Now (somewhat pro-BJP)
https://www.youtube.com/user/timesnowonline


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 25, 2019, 06:32:44 pm
Some info on bookie odds

In UP - Most betting are for BJP to win 41-45 in UP and 240 seats overall
https://www.indiawest.com/news/india/bookies-bet-on-bjp-s-modi-to-win/article_c5c61c7e-6786-11e9-be31-775989371493.html

In Rajasthan - Most betting for BJP to win 246-250 overall and INC to win 76-79 overall
http://www.dailypioneer.com/2019/india/bookies-bet-on-bjp-in-rajasthan.html

In MP - Betting for total BJP seats seems to be 230-245.  But betting for MP BJP seats seems to be 12-15, Rajasthan INC 15-17 seats, and Chhattisgarh  BJP seats at 2-4.  Of course these sets of data are inconsistent, If BJP wins around 14 seats in MP, 9 seats in Rajasthan , 3 seats in  Chhattisgarh then for BJP to win 230-245 seats overall it will pretty much have to outperform everywhere else (like 55 seats in UP, near sweep in the rest of Hindi belt, 12+ seats in both WB and Odisha, outperform in Assam and the Northeast and do reasonably well in TN.)  Of course if that were the case then why would the BJP then under-perform in MP and Rajasthan ?  This just does not add up.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/2019/india/indore-bets-on-namo-return-but-there---s-mood-swing.html


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 26, 2019, 05:16:21 am
More betting data, this time in Gujarat - 245 for BJP (an increase from 232 last week before phase 3 voted), 77 for INC, 22 for BJP in Gujarat, 43 for BJP in UP, 18 for BJP in Rajasthan and 20 for BJP in MP.
These sort of state level results would more imply that BJP ends up with around 230 seats and not 245 but perhaps the punters feel that BJP will outperform in places like TN, Odisha, and WB.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2019/apr/26/congress-or-bjp-bookies-bet-on-saffron-partys-return-1969241.html


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 26, 2019, 05:25:01 am
https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/sadhvi-pragya-cow-urine-cancer-1507816-2019-04-22?fbclid=IwAR1CLgSiAMeh0cYQkP45kxMfFODBeLD_Q4eSLPfxJtG8LC9EF_gqVPnyBd0

Controversial BJP candidate for Bhopal and accused terrorist Sadhvi Pragya claimed that drinking cow urine cured her breast cancer.  She also says that just touching a cow lowers the blood pressure.  She also talked about the need to take better care of cows in India.

To be fair she would be the second candidate in Bhopal  to have made such a claim.  Her heavyweight INC opponent and former INC CM of MP Digvijay Singh back in 2003 when he was in a tough fight for re-election also claimed that cow urine could be used as a potential treatment for diseases as serious as cancer and AIDS.  He also talked about how he also consumes cow urine for health purposes. It was an election ploy to try to pull in the Hindu vote in an election where the INC was in clear trouble.  It did not work as INC was ousted from power in MP and only regained it last year in the 2018 MP assembly election.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2003/05/05/a-leap-of-faith-in-indian-politics/2e3c68af-ae80-4d62-b7e4-46b35b8ed9a3/?utm_term=.990f8f109b09


On the cow issues I think those, most in the BJP, that are pushing to make it illegal to kill a cow overall makes the average quality of life for a cow worse.  Before such a ban on cow slaughter was put in place in several states a cattle farmer could sell it to the slaughter house after it could no longer economically produce milk.  Now that option is off the table the economic value of a cow is a lot lower and cow farmers have much lower incentives to take care of and feed the cow leading to a surge in wondering and starving cows in the countryside.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 26, 2019, 02:49:30 pm
https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/rajasthan-betting-town-puts-its-money-on-bjp-119042401033_1.html

More details on Rajasthan bookie projections.  They seem to have:

BJP total seats: 246-250 (I have it at 210)
Rajasthan BJP seats: 18 (I have it at 18 although it is BJP 17 RLP 1)
Maharashtra NDA seats: 31-34 (I have it at 33)
WB BJP seats: 8-11 (I have it at 12)
Haryana BJP seats: 7-9 (I have it at 7)
Punjab INC seats: 7-9 (I have it at 9)
UP BJP seats: 42-44 (I have it at BJP 31 AD(S) 2)
MP BJP seats: 20-22 (I have it at 19)
Gujarat BJP seats: 22-24 (I have it 21)
Bihar BJP seats: 12-14 (I have it at 15 with NDA at 28)
Delhi BJP seats: 5-7 (I have it at 7)

It seems other than UP my projections are very similar to bookie projections yet the final seat count for BJP for me is 210 and for the bookies is 246-250. Something does not make sense here.  If you go state by state and plug in their numbers for BJP seats in the states they indicated and put in some best cases for BJP for the others state

J&K                       2
HP                        4
Haryana                8 (bookie has it 7-9)
Punjab                  2 (bookie has INC at 7-9, so BJP is at best 2)
Delhi                     6 (bookie has it 5-7)
Uttarakhand          5
UP                       43 (Bookie has it 42-44)
Bihar                   13 (Bookie has it 12-14)
MP                       21 (Bookie has it 20-22)
Rajasthan             18 (Bookie has it at 18)
Chhattisgarh          6
Jharkhand              7
Gujarat                23 (Bookie has it 22-24)
Maharashtra         19 (Bookie has 31-33 for NDA)
Goa                       2
WB                      10 (Bookie has it at 8-11)
Orissa                  13
Karnataka            17
AP                         0
Telangana              1   
TN                        4
Kerala                   1
A&N                      1
Chandigarh            1
D&N H                   1
D&D                      1
Pondicherry            0     
Lakshadweep         0
Assam                   7
Arunachal P            2
Manipur                 1
Mizoram                0
Nagaland               0
Tripura                   2
Meghalaya              0
Sikkim                   0
---------------------------------
Total                  241

Which is still 7 less than the 246-250 the bookies project for BJP overall.   And if we can assume the best case scenario for the other states it still leaves us with why for the states the bookies had a projection the numbers are mostly pro-BJP but for sure not the best case scenario for BJP.  For the state level projections the bookies have seem to imply something like 225-230 seats for the BJP overall and not 246-250


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 26, 2019, 05:15:10 pm
VDPAssociates, which is one of the smaller Indian polling agency that historically have a BJP lean keeps on coming out with cryptic remarks that Priyanka Gandhi will have a great career as a politician and that the INC will do very well in the 2022 UP assembly election if she led the INC campaign.  Since they cannot release any polling results I guess they are hinting at a surge toward INC in Eastern UP due to Priyanka Gandhi.  If true then it is not clear who this hurts.  If this surge are from Muslim voters then SP-BSP is toast in Eastern UP and BJP will sweep.  If this surge are from Upper Caste voters then the BJP will get hit badly.  If could be both in which case the election in Eastern UP in the couple dozen districts in Eastern UP where INC have some strength will become real 3 way battles.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 27, 2019, 09:17:01 am
Thinking more about my concept of core BJP states vs non-core BJP states, another way to break up the Indian states are to think about the BJP as the Hindu-Hindi party.  The idea is that BJP represents Hindus which is obvious but is also about BJP as the Hindi party as Hindi can be a tool for the BJP for national building.  This has been pointed out before for the 2014 election

Hindi belt
()

2014 election result of the Hindi belt
()

We can group all the Hindi states into one cluster: HP, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand

Then using this idea of Hindi we can also think about languages are are from the same language family as Hindi or non-Hindi but Indo-Aryan languages
()
()

We can then create a cluster of Hindu (so we can exclude Kashmir and Ladakh) non-Hindi but Indo-Aryan language states: Jammu of J&K, Punjab, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, WB, Orissa, Karnataka, A&N, Chandigarh, D&N H, D&D, Assam, Tripura, Sikkim

OK.  I am cheating a bit.  Karnataka's language is Kannada which in theory is a Dravidian language but has gone though a pretty long historical process of Sanskritisation that I really count it as a Indo-Aryan language in cultural circle terms.

Overall this zone is not historical BJP territory but the BJP have been growing her over the decades with its Hindu-Hindi narrative

Then we have the rest which are non-Hindu areas or Dravidian or Sino-Tibetan language areas. They are: Kashmir of J&K, Ladakh of J&K, AP, Telangana, TN, Kerala, Pondicherry, Lakshadweep, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya

Overall the Hindi area has 225 out of 534 seats, the non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas has 203 seats and the rest has 113. 

We can look at BJP, BJP allies and overall NDA performance over the years using these categories.  I will show them in terms of % of seats won instead of absolute seat numbers

2019 are my current projections

NDA total
                    1991    1996    1998     1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi            38.7%  56.9%  60.4%  61.8%  37.8%  39.6%  89.3%  56.0%
Indo-Aryan   17.9%  28.6%  42.9%  48.8%  45.3%  34.5%  54.2%  56.2%
Rest              0.9%    0.0%  29.6%  54.8%  10.4%    0.9%  22.6%  13.0%
Total            23.1%  34.3%  47.3%  55.4%  34.8%  29.5%  62.1%  47.0%

BJP only
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi            38.7%  52.4%  54.2%  49.8%  34.7%  28.0%  84.4%  48.9%
Indo-Aryan   15.9%  21.2%  26.1%  29.1%  28.6%  26.1%  42.4%  46.3%
Rest               0.9%   0.0%    6.1%    9.6%    1.7%    0.0%   5.2%   5.2%
Total            22.3%  29.7%  33.5%  33.5%  25.4%  21.4%  51.9%  38.7%

BJP allies
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             0.0%    4.4%    6.2%   12.0%    3.1%   11.6%   4.9%   7.1%
Indo-Aryan    2.0%    7.4%   16.7%  19.7%   16.7%    8.4%  11.8%   9.9%
Rest              0.0%    0.0%   23.5%   45.2%    8.7%    0.9%  17.4%   7.8%
Total             0.7%    4.6%   13.8%   21.9%    9.4%     8.1%  10.1%  8.3%

The narrative is pretty clear.  When the BJP really got going on being a force in Indian politics in 1991 it was strong in Hindi areas, have a good base in Indo-Aryan areas and nowhere in the rest.  The rise of BJP in the 1996-1999 period has to do with its own growth in Hindi areas and the the help of new allies also grew in Indo-Aryan areas while it stayed weak in the Rest and only got seats for the NDA by roping in regional allies. 2004 saw setbacks across the board and by 2009 some of BJP's allies in the Rest and even the Indo-Aryan belt had abandoned the BJP but saw the BJP retain significant strength in the Hindi and Indo-Aryan belt.  The 2014 surge was  most extreme in the Hindi belt while in Indo-Aryan saw significant growth and only grew in the Rest only due to some extra allies.  2019 should see a reversion to the mean in Hindi areas but the BJP continues to grow in Indo-Aryan areas.

So if in the pre 2014 period we can mostly call the BJP a Hindu-Hindi party after 2014 period it might make sense to call it the Hindu-Indo-Aryan party.   The Hindi and Indo-Aryan zones make up 428 out of 543 seats and should form a large base for the BJP to continue to be a powerful if not dominate force in Indian politics in the decades to come.  Its vision using Hindu-Indo-Aryan identify as the core of a nation building goal I think is more murky in terms of success given the large number of Muslims in key Northern states and continued resistance of   Dravidian states.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 27, 2019, 04:50:55 pm
https://www.outlookindia.com/blog/story/india-news-naveen-patnaik-exposed-why-odisha-cm-fielded-an-82-year-old-icu-patie/4080

Is a very interesting story of political battle in Odisha between two rivals.  It involves Biju Patnaik who was the leader of JD in Odisha which was the main rival to INC in the 1970s to 1990s.
() 

After Biju Patnaik passed away his son Naveen Patnaik split the JD and formed BJD and formed an alliance with BJP
()

A key Biju Patnaik lieutenant which helped Naveen Patnaik from BJD was Bijoy Mohapatra who as a result had great influence within BJD and worked with Naveen Patnaik win the LS elections in 1998 and 1999 with their alliance with BJP over INC.   Bijoy Mohapatra had been an MLA from Patkura since 1980 and had already won in 1980 1985 1990 and 1995.
()

By 2000 it was clear that BJD-BJP was poised to win the Odisha assembly election.  Bijoy Mohapatra was the head of the BJD political committee in charge of handing out tickets.  But on the day when the deadline Naveen Patnaik who decided that he did not want to share power with Bijoy Mohapatra expelled him from the party and invalided his BJD ticket.  It was too late for Bijoy Mohapatra to file as an independent Patkura.  Instead he backed a AITC candidate Trilochan Behera who was a tribal leader and shifted his local base over to him.  Trilochan Behera went on to win with Bijoy Mohapatra's support.  But  Naveen Patnaik had another card to play.  After the elections when BJD-BJP came to power with Naveen Patnaik as CM he was able to, using his resource as the CM, to get Trilochan Behera to defect over to BJD and removing a political proxy for Bijoy Mohapatra. 

The main goal for Naveen Patnaik  going forward is to deny Bijoy Mohapatra to get elected as a MLA since given the connections that Bijoy Mohapatra had with various BJD MLAs he could make a lot of trouble for  Naveen Patnaik.  Bijoy Mohapatra went on to form OGP and formed an alliance with INC in 2004 and was narrowly defeated in Patkura by the BJD with Naveen Patnaik  throwing in vast resources to the district to ensure his defeat.

For the 2009 assembly elections Bijoy Mohapatra had merged his OGP with NCP but with BJD-BJP alliance breaking up the NCP choose to form an alliance with BJD.  In anger Bijoy Mohapatra joined BJP and ran again in Patkura but was defeated given the negative sentiment against the BJP in Odisha.

For 2014 Bijoy Mohapatra switched over to Mahakalapada to run as the BJP candidate and was again defeated as while the BJP support rose it was still a BJD landslide year.

For 2019 Bijoy Mohapatra switched back to Patkura run for BJP.   Naveen Patnaik insisted on nominating the 82 year BJD incumbent  Bed Prakash Agrawalla who was gravely ill.  The Agrawalla family begged Naveen Patnaik to not insist on Bed Prakash Agrawalla and suggested that his wife or son run instead.  Naveen Patnaik refused which confused many.  Bed Prakash Agrawalla was so ill that it took lot of effort for him to even file his papers and it would be impossible for him to campaign. 

Naveen Patnaik's strategy became clear Bed Prakash Agrawalla passed away a few days ago.  Due to the death of the a candidate the election for Patkura was halted until the BJD can come up with another candidate and the election will be held months after the assembly election.  It is now clear that given the fact that the BJP is much stronger in 2019 than in 2014 that Naveen Patnaik did not feel confident that he can keep Bijoy Mohapatra from winning.  So with a ploy of a candidate on his deathbed followed by a death during the election he was able to stop Bijoy Mohapatra from getting into the Odisha assembly.  Naveen Patnaik's plan must be, win the 2019 assembly election, most likely narrowly, and then when the Patkura election takes place month later he can use the honeymoon period of his renewed mandate and all to resources of the state government to throw into the election to stop  Bijoy Mohapatra from winning.  What a ploy.  Genius.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on April 27, 2019, 04:54:12 pm
Isn’t Gujarat the BJP’s version of Texas though


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 27, 2019, 06:09:05 pm
Isn’t Gujarat the BJP’s version of Texas though

Not really.  I think we have to factor our the impact of Modi which by itself is hard to do.  Looking at LS elections since 1991 shows that it is a lean BJP state at the LS level but it was only recently it became a landslide BJP state because of Modi.  Also we do have to accept that Gujarati is not Hindi and a Indo-Aryan language and in may ways should be looked at with other non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states.

                  Seats                            Vote share
             BJP+   INC+     BJP+     INC+      BJP rebels   INC rebels
1991       20       6        50.4%   42.1%                            1.0%
1996       16      10       48.5%   38.7%         2.4%           3.1%
1998       19       7        48.3%   36.7%       10.2% (RJP really drew support from both INC and BJP)
1999       20       6        52.5%   45.4%
2004       14     12        47.4%   45.0%
2009       15     11        46.5%   43.4%        1.4%            0.7%
2014       26       0        60.1%   34.4%

Gujarat was quite competitive until 2014.  INC will make comeback but will most likely only get the state to be competitive if Modi moves off the national scene and the favorite  son effect  goes away.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Ishan on April 28, 2019, 10:37:30 am
What is the Andra Pradesh exit polls


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 28, 2019, 11:28:03 am
What is the Andra Pradesh exit polls

They come out 5/19.  All exit polls now are in quarantine until the last round of voting are over.  Counting will take place 5/23. What is annoying about this schedule is that this means exit polls will come out morning of 5/19 for me in NY.  But that sunday morning I will need to take my son to Chinese school for his final exam.  Hopefully there will be time for me to look over the exit polls as they come out while I am in Chinese school while my son is taking the exam.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 28, 2019, 11:31:07 am
On the issue of AP, it seems like common consensus that YSRCP is poised to sweep both the LS and assembly elections.  The actions of TDP leader and CM Naidu going on on EVM rigging and errors after voting ended in AP seems to make it clear that even he believe he has lost.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 29, 2019, 10:01:54 am
Phase 4 voting done, turnout by state is along with rough 2014 turnout for those seats

                          2019              2014
Bihar                   58.92%          57.5%
MP                       65.77%         65.3%
Maharashtra         58.23%         55.8%
Odisha                 68%              75.7%
Rajasthan            64.5%           64.4%
UP                       57.58%         58.3%
WB                      76.44%         83.3%
Jharkhand            63.39%         57.3%

Most places turnout roughly same as 2014 which at least is neutral for BJP if not positive.  Jharkhand  has higher turnout which in the current context might be negative for BJP.  BJP targets of WB and Odisha turnout fell.  Hard to read that. Could be the old AITC and BJD vote not turning out and it could be a BJP surge or it could be the decline of the Modi wave of 2014.  Most likely both at the same time.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 29, 2019, 10:47:20 am
If you look at my projection by state and the various bookie projections it is clear that the main difference are UP and TN whereas the other states I think we are pretty close. The gap between my projection of 31 seats for BJP (33 for NDA) in UP and the 45 for BJP in the bookie odds is large.

In the the 4th phase which ended I think we are entering into the decisive phases of UP.  In the first 3 phases in Western UP I think the districts are less elastic.  Western UP are dominated by Jats, Yadavs and Jatav Dalits.  All of them are fairly loyal to RLD (Jats), SP (Yadavs) and BSP(Jatav Dalits) although in 2014 the Jat vote went to BJP which is now back.  As a result the Upper Caste vote is fairly loyal to BJP in response. 

In Eastern UP there are almost no Jats and Yadav as well as Jatav Dalits are a lot less numerous.  Eastern UP is more dominated by non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalits which historically have voted for SP (non-Yadav OBC) and BSP (Non-Jatav Dalits) but in less loyal numbers and both bloc had significant movement to BJP.  Because  non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalits are not straight ticket voters the Upper Caste vote in Easter UP are also more fluid and can swing between BJP and INC.  In situations where the Upper Caste sense that Muslim vote might go INC then they could also vote INC if the BJP candidate does not have a Upper Caste background and with the Muslim vote with INC the chances of a OBC backed SP getting in is lower.

For the 2017 assembly election I looked over the results by district and created a rough "exit" poll by community.  The BJP won 2017 by winning over the non-Yadav OBC and getting some defections from non-Jatav Dalits.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation on the likely distribution of votes by community in UP.  The exit polls are all over the place on this so this is my best guess.

The current estimate of votes share by bloc are

BJP+    41.78%
SP+     28.25% (more like 28.5% once we add in SP backed independents)
BSP      22.40%
            
from there we can infer the breakdown by community

                        Share of
                      Electorate       BJP+       SP+       BSP                    
Upper Caste         20%           70%        15%      10%
Yadav                  10%          25%         65%       5%
Non-Yadav OBC     30%          60%         15%      15%
Jatav                   10%          15%          5%      75%
Non-Jatav Dalit     10%           35%        10%      50%
Muslims               20%          10%         65%      15%



So in Eastern UP it will come down to which narrative will win out:  A SP-BSP backward  (OBC Dalit Muslims) consolidation versus fowards or a BJP Hindu consolation (Upper Caste OBC Dalit) versus Muslims.  And there is the wildcard of INC where a Upper Caste INC candidate can eat into the BJP Upper Caste vote and a Muslim candidate can break SP-BSP.  There are also places where INC nominated a OBC candidate from the same community as the BJP candidate just to try to break BJP. There are also few places where INC has as strong non-Muslim candidate which could pull in Muslim votes and trigger dissatisfied  Upper Caste BJP voters over to INC.  So Eastern UP could be quite elastic in terms of what the results could be.  I eagerly wait to read ground reports on how things went today and in future phases.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 29, 2019, 11:08:59 am
The security situation in Kashmir is so bad that the voting for Anantnag had to be split over 3 phases so security can be deployed to guard the polling stations.  Phase 4 which was today was the second of three phases in Anantnag where turnout was 10.5%.  Back in 2014 turnout in Anantnag was 17.4% so it seems that the massive security deployed will be able to keep the turnout from crashing to below 10%.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 29, 2019, 04:10:12 pm
India Today analysis of INC candidates caste background  when compared to BJP and SP-BSP-RLD candidates in UP concludes that INC to hurt BJP more than SP-BSP-RLD

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/congress-gathbandhan-uttar-pradesh-1513230-2019-04-30

Analysis concludes that other than the 8 seats where INC and SP-BSP-RLD have an alliance, INC is helping SP-BSP-RLD in 28 others seats with candidates that will eat into the BJP hase but hurt SP-BSP-RLD in 16 seats where the iNC candidate will most likely eat into the SP-BSP-RLD base.
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 30, 2019, 11:47:26 am
Modi's affidavit for his candidacy in Varanasi

https://suvidha.eci.gov.in/uploads/affidavit/2019/PC/S24/77/S2420190426023734.pdf

On page 2 it labels his wife as Jashodaben
()

Back in 2014 this was fairly controversial. 

Modi had married Jashodaben as an arranged marriage but it seems the marriage was never consummated.  A few month after getting married Modi left his/abandoned his wife to join the Hindu RSS organization.    Jashodaben  lived with Modi's parents for a while before moving back to her parents house although the marriage was never terminated legally.  Modi had joined RSS claiming he was single which is not really true.  In 2014 when he filed papers to run for a LS seat the affidavit required him to fill out his marriage status (the local Gujarat ECI allowed him to leave that section blank when he ran for MLA).  In order not to commit perjury he had to admit back in 2014 he was indeed married

To this day Jashodaben insist she is Modi's wife although she has not seen Modi since he left her to join RSS decades ago.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: FredLindq on April 30, 2019, 12:38:32 pm
My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: FredLindq on April 30, 2019, 12:49:35 pm
My prognosis for the five largest states:
Uttar Pradesh 80 seats
BJP 40, AD(S) 1 Total NDA 41
SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1 Total Grand Alliance 35
INC 4

Maharashtra 48 seats
BJP 21, SS 14, Total NDA 35
INC 7, NCP 6, Total UPA 13

West Bengal 42 seats
AITC 31
BJP 10
INC 1

Bihar 40 seats
BJP 15, JD(U) 13, LJP 3, Total NDA 31
RJD 5, INC 2, RLSP 1, VIP 1, Total UPA 9

Tamil Nadu 39 seats
DMK 16, INC 5, VCK 2, CPI 2, CPI-M 1, Total UPA 26
AIADMK 10, PMK 2, BJP 1, Total NDA 13










Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 30, 2019, 03:15:37 pm
My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      


Looks pretty reasonable and would mostly line up with most CW projections out there. 

A technical point of order would be "NPP 1, MNF 1, SDF 1" should not count as NDA but pro-NDA.  It really comes down to definition.    In Mizoram, Meghalaya, and Sikkim BJP ran its own separate candidate separate from NPP MNF and SDF so strictly speaking these parties do not have a pre-poll alliance with BJP even though it is clear they will back a BJP government.  Part of this is a ploy given the controversy over the new citizenship bill where the BJP running against these pro-BJP parties allows them to be able to pick up part of the anti-BJP anti-new citizenship bill vote. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 30, 2019, 03:28:59 pm
My prognosis for the five largest states:
Uttar Pradesh 80 seats
BJP 40, AD(S) 1 Total NDA 41
SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1 Total Grand Alliance 35
INC 4

Maharashtra 48 seats
BJP 21, SS 14, Total NDA 35
INC 7, NCP 6, Total UPA 13

West Bengal 42 seats
AITC 31
BJP 10
INC 1

Bihar 40 seats
BJP 15, JD(U) 13, LJP 3, Total NDA 31
RJD 5, INC 2, RLSP 1, VIP 1, Total UPA 9

Tamil Nadu 39 seats
DMK 16, INC 5, VCK 2, CPI 2, CPI-M 1, Total UPA 26
AIADMK 10, PMK 2, BJP 1, Total NDA 13


Other than WB I guess these are what a good NDA performance would look like which is quite plausible. 

The one I disagree with the most is actually TN.    Frankly there are just so many things going against the NDA

1) AIADMK has lost their main vote fetcher and larger than life leader Jayalathia
2) AIADMK is split down the middle with the AMMK splinter
3) BJP has a poor brand and image in TN which has gotten worse with the BJP Hindi agenda
4) Current EPS-OPS leadership of AIADMK is viewed as weak and puppets of Modi
5) AIADMK government reaction on flood relief is poor and viewed as incompetent 
6) AMMK leader TTV Dhinakaran controls a good part of the cash horde of the AIADMK

Frankly I think there is a good chance UPA would sweep the LS polls 38-1 (Anbumani Ramadoss most likely will hold PMK fief of Dharmapuri).  I had to come up all sorts of reasons to handicap UPA to come up with a projection of UPA 32 NDA 7.  That involved

1) MNM would split a good part of the DMK-INC vote
2) DMK leader Karunanidhi death also took away DMK's greater than life campaigner
3) And of course money power
4) Anti-DMK feelings in the AIADMK core would still drive them to vote for BJP despite their negative views of BJP

I think the key factor here will be money power.  The amount cash involved in vote buying seems to be 10 times greater than 2014 and I guess is the wild care.  But even here AMMK and DMK have their own cash hordes so I am not sure that AIADMK would gain that much from throwing in money as both AMMK and DMK would be doing the same.  Most likely it will be a wash.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 30, 2019, 03:49:53 pm
Anthro AI continues is negative prognosis for BJP based on their ground report analysis for Phase 4 part of UP which just voted

https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/its-time-to-adjust-our-weights-for-the-bjp/

In Phase 4 of UP 13 seats voted.  In 2014 it was BJP 12 SP 1.

Before the voting Anthro AI seems to have it a BJP 7 INC 1 SP-BSP 5

Based on ground reports they seem to think the BJP will a lot worse than 7.

My current model has it as BJP 6 SP 5 BSP 2 for this batch of seats.

If you read their views on some of the seats they have

Kannauj : Sure SP win.  I agree since SP won here in 2014.
Unnao: INC advantage.  I have it as a BJP win as INC will not be able to get enough of the SP-BSP vote to switch over
Kanpur: INC-BJP tossup.  I have it as a BJP win as like Unnao INC will not be able to pull in enough SP-BSP voters to win
Jhansi: BJP will most likely lose.   I have as SP win by a good margin
Farrukhabad: BJP ahead but INC could come close.  I have it as BJP win as like Unnao and Kanpur INC could not gain enough SP-BSP vote to win.
Shahjahanpur: BJP likely to lose.   I have it as a narrow win for BSP.

Anthro AI now sees SP-BSP in a strong position as the voting moves further into Eastern UP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on April 30, 2019, 04:03:35 pm
In phase 4 of voting which took place yesterday it include all of Mumbai of Maharashtra.  A key element on if the INC-NCP can regain ground in Mumbai from BJP-SHS would be how much of a factor Raj Thackeray play.  Raj Thackeray is the head of NMS which is a SHS splinter.
Raj Thackeray formed NMS in 2006 as a SHS splinter after it was clear that his cousin Uddhav Thackeray would be the potical heir of SHS founder Bal Thackeray.   Raj Thackeray NMS took on the SHS position of Martha regionalism along with anti-Muslim overtones and added to it anti-North Indian immigrants into Maharashtra as part of its political appeal. NMS was a force in the 2009 LS and assembly elections and severely managed SHS.  The Modi wave of 2014 marginalized NMS and Raj Thackeray's attempt to ride the Modi wave but run against SHS fell flat on his face.  After 2014 Raj Thackeray and NMS political fortunes fell rapidity.
()

For 2019 Raj Thackeray re-invited himself as an anti-Modi evangelist.  NMS did not give up its Maratha anti-Muslim anti-Northern Indian narrative but started to bash Modi-Shah which also has anti-Gujarati overtones.    Raj Thackeray clearly detected clear anti-Modi frustration in the SHS core and after BJP-SHS formed an alliance threw himself as the spearhead of the anti-Modi movement in Maharashtra to try to pick up the anti-Modi SHS base.   Raj Thackeray wanted to join the INC-NCP alliance but was opposed by INC due to INC's fear of impact on its chances in Northern India  given  Raj Thackeray's anti-Northern Indian narrative.  Raj Thackeray then decided to not run any candidates and just started to campaign against Modi, especially in seats where SHS is running.   Raj Thackeray became such a successful and effective speaker against that INC-NCP candidates are rushing to get  Raj Thackeray to come to their constituency to speak and campaign for them.

 Raj Thackeray's real goal is the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections in late 2019.  Not sure what will take place.  NMS might join an INC-NCP alliance or have an alliance with NCP and a tactical alliance with INC  One way or another  Raj Thackeray is a man with a plan.  He is planning to gain political capital this 2019 LS election so he can work to take away the SHS base in 2019 assembly elections.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 01, 2019, 08:49:04 am
After half of Rajasthan voted the betting markets there went from BJP winning 18-20 seats to 20-22 seats.  If so this would go against the historical trends last few cycles where the assembly winner gains in the LS election relative to the assembly.  The main exception was the 1999 Vajpayee where the BJP overturned the 1998 INC assembly election victory. Even then it was BJP 16 INC 9 and not INC driven down to 3-5 seats.

https://www.indiatvnews.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections-2019-betting-high-on-modi-s-return-jodhpur-bookies-predict-near-sweep-by-bjp-in-rajasthan-517319


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 01, 2019, 11:12:40 am
My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      


I was trying to reverse engineer your projection.  I have a couple of questions

It seems you have some text cut off in  "Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52"  Assuming you mean AD(S) 1 (from your UP projection) the list you have add up to 50 and not 52.  Which are the other 2 NDA allies seat.  I assume it has to be at least RLP in Rajastahan.  What is the other one?  ADSU in Jharkhand (not that likely as the only seats AJSU is running is in a strong JMM district) ? AGP in Assam (again not that likely since the 3 seats AGP are running in are in fairly strong INC or INC-AIUDF seats), pro-BJP independent in Karnataka (that one seems most likely) ?

Also in "Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4" Who is the independent ?  I assume it is the ex-ULFA incumbent from Kokrajhar in Assam ? 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: FredLindq on May 01, 2019, 12:17:15 pm
My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      


Looks pretty reasonable and would mostly line up with most CW projections out there. 

A technical point of order would be "NPP 1, MNF 1, SDF 1" should not count as NDA but pro-NDA.  It really comes down to definition.    In Mizoram, Meghalaya, and Sikkim BJP ran its own separate candidate separate from NPP MNF and SDF so strictly speaking these parties do not have a pre-poll alliance with BJP even though it is clear they will back a BJP government.  Part of this is a ploy given the controversy over the new citizenship bill where the BJP running against these pro-BJP parties allows them to be able to pick up part of the anti-BJP anti-new citizenship bill vote. 

I put them as NDA since they are still members of North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) and guverns with BJP in Meghalaya. I do not know how the BJP MLA in Mizoram votes. UDP has left NEDA but guverns with BJP and other NEDA parties such as NPP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: FredLindq on May 01, 2019, 01:04:05 pm
My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      


I was trying to reverse engineer your projection.  I have a couple of questions

It seems you have some text cut off in  "Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52"  Assuming you mean AD(S) 1 (from your UP projection) the list you have add up to 50 and not 52.  Which are the other 2 NDA allies seat.  I assume it has to be at least RLP in Rajastahan.  What is the other one?  ADSU in Jharkhand (not that likely as the only seats AJSU is running is in a strong JMM district) ? AGP in Assam (again not that likely since the 3 seats AGP are running in are in fairly strong INC or INC-AIUDF seats), pro-BJP independent in Karnataka (that one seems most likely) ?

Also in "Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4" Who is the independent ?  I assume it is the ex-ULFA incumbent from Kokrajhar in Assam ? 

Correction (Two seats in Teleanga was in the wrong column, was Other NDA should be in INC).

BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S) 1   50   
Total NDA   279   51,38%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   327   60,22%
INC   90   16,57%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   134   24,68%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   212   39,04%
Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: FredLindq on May 01, 2019, 01:07:10 pm
My prognosis:
BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52   
Total NDA   281   51,75%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   329   60,59%

INC   88   16,21%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   132   24,31%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   210   38,67%

Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   
'      


I was trying to reverse engineer your projection.  I have a couple of questions

It seems you have some text cut off in  "Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S)   52"  Assuming you mean AD(S) 1 (from your UP projection) the list you have add up to 50 and not 52.  Which are the other 2 NDA allies seat.  I assume it has to be at least RLP in Rajastahan.  What is the other one?  ADSU in Jharkhand (not that likely as the only seats AJSU is running is in a strong JMM district) ? AGP in Assam (again not that likely since the 3 seats AGP are running in are in fairly strong INC or INC-AIUDF seats), pro-BJP independent in Karnataka (that one seems most likely) ?

Also in "Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4" Who is the independent ?  I assume it is the ex-ULFA incumbent from Kokrajhar in Assam ? 

Correct! The indpendent is Naba Kumar Sarania  from Kokrajhar  in Assam. I do not Think that BPF can beat him.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 01, 2019, 01:18:34 pm
How was 2014 looking at this point


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 01, 2019, 04:05:24 pm

Correction (Two seats in Teleanga was in the wrong column, was Other NDA should be in INC).

BJP   229   42,17%
Other NDA (SS 14, JD(U) 13, AIADMK 10, LJP 3, SAD 3, PMK 2, NPP 1, MNF 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1, AD(S) 1   50   
Total NDA   279   51,38%
Pro NDA (YRSCP 20, TRS 14, BJD 13, UDP 1)   48   
Total   327   60,22%
INC   90   16,57%
Other UPA (DMK 16, NCP 7 (One in Lakshadweep), RJD 5, JD(S) 3, JKNC 3, JMM 2, VCK 2, KECM 1, RSP 1   44   
Total UPA   134   24,68%
Pro UPA (AITC 31, TDP 5)   36   
GA (SP 18, BSP 16, RLD 1)   35   
Left (CPI-M 5, CPI 2)   7   
Total UPA+Allies   212   39,04%
Others (AIUDF 2, AIMIM 1, Ind. 1)   4   


Thanks for sharing.  This sounds like a pretty reasonable projection assuming a modest Modi wave in the Hindu North and West plus some solid but not massive gains in the East and AIADMK-BJP holding a lot of the old AIADMK base in TN.

One feedback.  Given your projection you should consider giving RLP  a seat in Rajasthan where the BJP splinter is part of the NDA and running in Nagaur.  Your projection seems to imply something like 20-5 win for BJP in Rajasthan and if so then most likely RLP will win its seat too.

As for the Northeast I would say that if you are going to view NPP as NDA then you should consider UDF as NDA as well.  In Meghalaya right now it is really NPP-UDF vs INC vs BJP with the BJP most likely running a distant third.   The current Meghalaya government is a NPP-UDF-PDF-HSPDP-BJP-NCP alliance.   Pretty much all parties of the alliance other than BJP are backing NPP-UDF. There is an argument for NPP and UDF being counted as NDA or pro-NDA.  Not sure if there is an argument for NPP to be NDA but UDF being pro-NDA.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 01, 2019, 04:08:38 pm
Correct! The indpendent is Naba Kumar Sarania  from Kokrajhar  in Assam. I do not Think that BPF can beat him.

I have BPF winning but that one is hard to tell what the local dynamics are.  I agree that with UPP splitting the Bodo vote Naba Kumar Sarania could end up winning again.  Really comes down to will all non-Bodos consolidate behind Naba Kumar Sarania again.  I do not know but my take on it is there were a lot of Bodo vs non-Bodo polarization and violence before the 2014 election which is not present this time around and the non-Bodo vote will most likely be scattered. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 01, 2019, 04:13:14 pm

Similar to today where pre-election polls had NDA short of majority but clearly the largest bloc.  In 2019 half the pre-election polls have a NDA majority and half does not.  The main difference are the in 2014 the pre-election polls had a momentum toward the NDA as the campaign progressed where in 2019 it is stagnant and if anything the momentum is slightly away from the NDA.  In 2014 the momentum was clearly on the NDA side and the real result was way better for the NDA than any pre-election or even exit poll.  I think exit polls will be important to help gauge momentum.

In 2004 the NDA was way ahead in the polls but as the campaign went on the NDA lead dropped.  Back in 2004 after each round of voting exit polls were allowed for the seats that voted and you can see that after each round of voting the exit polls show the NDA lead getting smaller and smaller.  The the 2004 results show a far worse result than any of the polls. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 01, 2019, 08:56:13 pm
Law enforcement has sized over $470 million worth of cash and other items related to vote buying.
()

TN Gujarat and Delhi are place with a lot of cash being distributed
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 02, 2019, 08:16:42 am
https://www.huffingtonpost.in/entry/elections-2019-maharashtra-may-be-a-bigger-worry-for-bjp-than-up-here-s-why_in_5cc820ece4b07c9a4ce8da88

Quote
This time, while chief minister Devendra Fadnavis had claimed the combine would win 46 seats, a Shiv Sena leader said on condition of anonymity that they were aiming for a more realistic 35 seats.

Of course turnout in the Mumbai areas surged the most in Gujarati areas so unless there were large scale defections of the Marthi vote based on Raj Thackeray faction BJP-SHS should still sweep Mumbai again.  What the BJP-SHS should be more worried about are in the rural areas.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 02, 2019, 10:38:27 am
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/congress-confident-of-crossing-three-digit-mark-in-lok-sabha-elections/story-xJNzLNDSURWftWscxMdJuO.html

INC internal assessment which one should always take with a grain of slat

Quote
The Congress’s evaluation for 2019 indicates gains in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Punjab. But it is not expecting a good showing in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Delhi and the North-East.

The places INC claim to be doing well I think are mostly CW view that INC did so badly in 2014 that they are bound to regain ground.  What is interesting is that INC does not expect to do well in Jharkhand which is a surprise since the CW is that INC will gain ground with the INC-JMM-JVM-RJD alliance and that the tribal vote are going against BJP this time. Seems like this is not true and INC will under-perform. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 02, 2019, 10:50:46 am
If not for LS, NCP may have tie-up with MNS for state polls

https://www.asianage.com/india/politics/020519/if-not-for-ls-ncp-may-have-tie-up-with-mns-for-state-polls.html

It seems for the Maharashtra assembly elections later in 2019 NCP might allocate a bunch of seats to Raj Thackeray’s MNS  from its quota creating a de facto INC-NCP-NMS alliance and a formidable challenge to BJP-SHS later this year.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: RoboWop on May 02, 2019, 11:18:27 am
Sorry for the dumb question, jaichind, but is there any broad long-term movement/effort towards party consolidation in India? I've always found it interesting that major late-stage developing economics – namely India and Brazil – have such fractured partisan systems. It makes these elections very difficult to follow casually.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 02, 2019, 12:28:57 pm
Sorry for the dumb question, jaichind, but is there any broad long-term movement/effort towards party consolidation in India? I've always found it interesting that major late-stage developing economics – namely India and Brazil – have such fractured partisan systems. It makes these elections very difficult to follow casually.

I think for a period after 1991 there was a move toward a consolidation into a 2 party system with INC and BJP as the two national parties.  While we still have two large national parties they are really two large regional parties that have strength in a large part of but not all of India.  The main issue is that the goal of both INC and BJP are nation building to create powerful organized nation-state that came become an international superpower.  While the methods are different (Indian rationalist secular nationalism for INC and Hindu-Hindi cultural hegemony for BJP) both approaches will meet regional resistance that would organize around language and/or caste loyalties to protect a regional identify and not be subsumed by a superstate.  The splintering of the party system is really about BJP vs INC in many states and BJP and/or INC versus a series of regional parties.   In each state the party system tends to converge toward something fairly simple.  Only in the deep South like TN and Kerala do we have large number of parties that reoriented themselves between 2-3 blocs  every other election.  The other one is Bihar.  Assam has this but that is more about the fact that on the long run Assam most likely should be bifurcated.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 03, 2019, 05:02:51 pm
https://thewire.in/politics/elections-2019-bjp-hindi-heartland-lose

"Elections 2019: BJP Could Lose 75 Seats in Six Hindi Heartland States"

The wire analysis of assembly election results for 6 Hindi states and mapped them onto the LS election
()

Of course the whole media narrative is that for places like MP, Rajasthan and to some extent Chhattisgarh the BJP will outperform 2018 assembly election polls which would invalidate this sort of analysis.  The media points to polls that show BJP with large leads for BJP in MP and  Rajasthan. My compromise approach is to take the most pro-INC polls in these states which still have BJP with the edge but not a large lead to take into account the INC honeymoon.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 04, 2019, 06:46:53 am
NDTV analysis of WB


Points out that WB has a fairly high Muslim population
()


INC has declined over the years and its base mostly going to AITC
()


Left Front also declined over the years and most of its vote going to BJP in response to AITC surge
()


Turnout has been high and is still high with women even higher than men
()


In Gorkha dominated North BJP is strong (only because of GJM support which is splintered this time). In Central WB there are high concentration of Muslims which had split their vote between INC, Left Front and AITC since in relative terms the BJP is weak.  This time with BJP winning over the Hindu votes here there will be a Muslim consolidation behind AITC.  In South WB where most of the seats are it will be AITC vs BJP.
()


Muslim vote in 2014 split between INC AITC and Left Front
()


This time Muslim vote will consolidate behind AITC
()


Muslim consolidation will trigger Hindu consolidation behind BJP in seats with high number of Muslims
()


BJP stronger with Upper Caste and Dalits although AITC stronger with Tribal vote
()


Like other areas BJP stronger in urban areas
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 04, 2019, 04:34:20 pm
Pro-UPA media outfits are coming out with projections based on ground reports that are fairly negative for BJP

The somewhat anti-NDA wire reports that based on on the ground feedback that BJP likely to lose around 40 seats in UP and if BJP also loses ground in other Hindi states then NDA could be driven to around 220-225.  It also points out that various opposition parties also seem to have sensed this and are working toward a non-NDA government if the numbers work out that way.

https://thewire.in/politics/regional-leaders-karnataka-post-poll-alliance


Pro-INC National Harold seems more explicit on its on the ground projections
1) Kerala - INC+ bloc to win at least 16 out of 20
2) TN - DMK-INC to sweep
3) Karnataka - INC-JD(S) to win at least 16 out of 28
4) Maharashtra - INC-NCP to win at least 30 out of 48 (this is a shock if true)
5) Gujarat - INC to win at least 10 out of 26
6) Chhattisgarh  - INC to win at least 8 out of 11
7) Rajasthan - no ground reports other than 1 lean BJP seat seems to be going INC
8) MP - out of 6 seats with ground reports INC wins at least 3
9) UP - BJP most likely down to low twenties in terms of total seats based on the seats that voted so far
10) WB - out of 13 seats that voted INC to win at least 2 - of course the part that has voted so far are the only places that INC have any chance.
11) Assam - BJP does not make gains from 2014
https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/upa-ahead-of-nda-after-first-four-phases-suggest-intelligence-reports

Some of these projections are far to pro-INC to be believed.  Still the dog that did not bark does tell us something.  These ground report saying that BJP did not gain in Assam does show that INC did not gain either and most likely lost ground.  Also no mention of Jharkhand most likely means that INC is not doing well there although I suspect INC allies like JMM and JVM most likely did well.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 05, 2019, 08:31:56 am
Sorry to be on BJP's case all the time.  There seems to be some confusion on exact numbers coming out of the BJP.  A key BJP in WB this year is to create the impression (which is mostly true) that BJP is the main challenger to AITC and that all anti-AITC voters should come out to back BJP.  To counteract the fear that pro-BJP mobilization will meet with retribution from the AITC state government the BJP is putting out signals that a large number of AITC MLA will soon defect to BJP as soon as the LS elections show that the BJP has done well in WB.  The main problem is the BJP talking point cannot be consistent on the exact number of potential defectors.

In late March BJP leader Arjun Singh who himself is a recent defector from AITC claimed that 100 AITC MLAs will join BJP soon
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/west-bengal/100-trinamool-mlas-to-join-bjp-soon-arjun-singh/articleshow/68603304.cms


Then in late April Modi claimed that 40 AITC MLAs are in touch with BJP
https://www.firstpost.com/politics/narendra-modi-claims-40-tmc-mlas-in-touch-pms-appalling-remarks-underline-bjps-desperation-in-west-bengal-6546651.html


Then BJP leader Dilip Joshi said in an interview with NDTV that BJP are in contact with 100 AITC MLAs
https://youtu.be/aBQ63Ue5sZM?t=2413


Then just now Arjun Singh says that 60 AITC MLAs are in contact with him
http://www.orissapost.com/60-tmc-mlas-in-touch-with-me-arjun-singh/


The BJP strategy seems reasonable but they have to get their numbers straight for it to sound plausible. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 05, 2019, 08:35:15 am
'Boomerang' that never came back: How the BJP rose to prominence in Bengal and pushed CPM to the fringes

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/boomerang-that-never-came-back-how-the-bjp-rose-to-prominence-in-bengal-and-pushed-cpm-to-the-fringes-6528911.html

Is an interesting account of the BJP surge in WB.  After the Left Front was ousted by AITC in 2011 at the state level, the key Left Front cadres that lived off state government largess and protection was left out in the cold with nothing.  They sought shelter with the BJP to avoid attacks from the new AITC regime and were suppose to come back to Left Front during elections.  They never did.  The clientelist system the Left Front set up in WB to benefit its cadres which worked so well for so long became its undoing once it is out of power.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: xelas81 on May 05, 2019, 09:07:04 am
How many rebel candidates (candidates who belonged to a major party but now are running as independent/mirco party) have a chance to win seats?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 05, 2019, 09:41:26 pm
How many rebel candidates (candidates who belonged to a major party but now are running as independent/mirco party) have a chance to win seats?

There are quite a few rebels.  I think none of them have much of a chance of winning except for

UP's Firozabad - SP splinter PSP leader and founder Shivpal Singh Yadav who is the brother of SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav is running against his own cousin.  At this stage it seems BJP might be pushed the third in this SP-PSP battle with SP having the upper hand.

Haryana's Hisar - INLD splinter JJP leader and founder Dushyant Chautala who has rebelled against the the other branch of the INLD family and is the current MP of Hisar.  Most of the INLD vote here most likely have flowed to JJP although most likely he will lose to BJP.

Punjab's Ludhiana - LIP founder and co-leader Simarjit Singh Bains and in theory SAD rebel, even though proto-LIP's rebeliionn predates 2014, is in a 3 way battle against INC and SAD.  LIP is allied with BSP CPI and PEP (which is AAP splinter).  Most likely INC will win.

As for independents the ones that could win (and I rate all of them as not expected to win) are

Kerala's Ponnani and Idukki where Left Front backed independents are running.  Both are likely to lose to INC ally IMUL and INC respectively.

In Mizoram, INC and ZPM have united to back an independent to take on the ruling MNF.  MNF is expected to win.

In Karnataka's Mandya which is a INC-JD(S) battleground district now has a JD(S) candidate backed by INC given the INC-JD(S) alliance.  A INC rebel emerged to take on the JD(S) candidate and backed by the BJP.  Despite local BJP support along with local faction of INC most likely JD(S) will win.

In Assam's Kokrajhar, an ex-ULFA (Assam Independence insurgency outfit) candidate won back in 2014 is now running for re-election.  Most likely he will lose to BJP ally BPF but he does have a solid shot at winning re-election.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2019, 10:18:02 am
5th phase of voting done. Prelim turnout and rough  2014 equivalent turnout by state are

                  2019        2014
Rajasthan   63.75%     61.6%
MP             64.52%     57.7%
Jharkhand  64.60%     64.1%
WB            74.42%     81.3%
UP             57.07%      57.2%
Bihar         57.76%      56.5%

So turnout are roughly similar to 2014 except for MP (which went up a lot) and WB (which went down a lot).  Within the context of both these states these numbers are fairly good news for BJP and in WB fairly bad news for Left Front and to some extent AITC.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2019, 09:15:50 pm
I have been doing an analysis of the total vote per district that has voted and compared to the total votes in the same district in 2014.  Going state by state you have

AP - Voting totally done -> Total vote increased around  8% which seems to indicate that overall turnout is around the same as 2014.  Urban areas has a relatively smaller increase in total vote.

Assam - Voting totally done-  Total vote surged 18% which clearly is an increase in turnout.  Total vote increase higher in Muslim and Bodo areas.  Should be positive for BPF and AIUDF.  This also means that INC should be able to fend off the consolidation of the BJP-AGP vote in its strongholds.

Bihar - Voting partly done - Total vote increased 13% which increase a small but significant increase in turnout.  Going district by district, it seems turnout has decreased in some of the districts where BJP did well in 2014 but yielded to JD(U) and LJP which means the BJP-JD(U)-LJP alliance is not working perfectly.  Likewise RJD->VIP vote transfer also seems to have problems.  No clear trend until more district turnout numbers comes in.

Chhattisgarh - Voting totally done - Total vote increased 11% which indicates a small increase in turnout.  Higher turnout in places heavy tribal areas.  Mostly positive for INC and negative for BJP.

Gujarat - Voting totally done - Total vote increased 13% which increase a small but significant increase in turnout.  Urban area turnout lower while tribal and Patel area turnout higher.  Somewhat negative signal for BJP.

Jharkhand - Only 3 out of 14 seats voted - Total vote increased 26% which implies a large surge in turnout.  Given the fact that tribals are shifting away from BJP this is a fairly negative signal for BJP.

Karnataka - Voting totally done -  Total vote increased 13% which increase a small but significant increase in turnout.  Northern turnout where Lingayats  are more numerous tends to be higher while urban turnout are relatively lower.   Still mostly somewhat positive signal for BJP.

Kerala - Voting totally done - Total vote increased 13% which increase a small but significant increase in turnout.  Turnout higher in Rahul Gandhi's district as well as Muslim districts.  Christian district turnout relatively lower.  Urban turnout higher.  Mostly positive for INC and BJP and negative
for Left Front.

Maharashtra - Voting totally done - Total vote increased 11% which indicates a small increase in turnout.   Urban turnout relatively lower.  Muslim and Gujarati area turnout higher.  So the implications are mixed.  Gujarati turnout clearly positive for BJP but Urban area turnout lower is negative for SHS.

MP - 6 out of 29 seats voted - Total vote increased 24% which implies a large surge in turnout. Most of these districts are tribal areas which should be negative for BJP.  But this is not clear until we get to review turnout in non-Tribal MP districts.  If those districts also have a surge in turnout then that would be positive for bjp.

Odisha - Voting totally done - Total vote increased 10% which indicates a small increase in turnout.  Urban area turnout relativity higher but that seems to be regression to the mean.  All things equal somewhat positive for BJP.

Rajasthan - Voting partly done - Total vote increased 21% which implies a large surge in turnout.  No clear trend yet until other parts of the state votes.  But in absolute terms this is positive for BJP but tribal areas have even higher turnout which is somewhat negative for BJP.

Telangana -   Voting totally done - Total vote decreased 5% since the assembly election is not held unlike 2014.  Urban area turnout are relatively lower.

TN -  Voting totally done -  Total vote increased around  6% which seems to indicate that overall turnout is around the same as 2014 if not lower.  Turnout relatively lower in urban areas.  Place where AIADMK splinter AMMK have a viable candidate have relatively higher turnout.  All things equal this is negative for AIADMK-BJP bloc.

UP - Voting done in half the districts -     Total vote increased around  6% which seems to indicate that overall turnout is around the same as 2014 if not lower.  No clear trend yet.  In absolute terms these sort of numbers are negative for BJP.

Uttarakhand - Voting done in half the districts -    Total vote increased 10% which indicates a small increase in turnout.  The two districts where the INC have field heavyweight candidates which did not run in 2014 have relatively higher turnout.  All things equal positive signal for INC.

WB - Voting done in 18 out of 42 districts - Total vote increased 13% which increase a small but significant increase in turnout.  Muslim seats clearly have relatively higher turnout.  More firm trends can be derived when more urban areas vote.  So far this is negative for BJP but this is not clear until we look at turnout numbers in Southern WB.

At a marco level urban areas are seeing a smaller increase in total vote relative to rural and tribal areas.  All things equal this is negative for BJP overall.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 07, 2019, 06:35:52 am
After phase 5 Anthro AI came out with their ground report in UP

https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/people-voted-for-vikas-in-phase-five/

It seems what is taking place according to them is what the BJP always feared, a rural backward consolidation in favor of SP-BSP-RLD.  They also implied a fairly safe BJP seat might fall.  When I emailed them asking if it is Lucknow they refused to answer but to say that a key demographic that always voted BJP is not voting BJP this time making an unnamed BJP stronghold (it has to be Lucknow using process of elimination) vulnerable.  My model has BJP winning Lucknow with a solid margin but that assumes that INC will keep a part of its base.  If Lucknow Upper castes swings to SP plus INC->SP tactical voting then it could get close in this BJP stronghold.  
 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 07, 2019, 02:11:41 pm
To do my seat-by-seat analysis of total vote caste with compression to 2014 I used a bunch of reports from ECI.  Overall the data QA of ECI is poor.

https://eci.gov.in/files/file/9997-final-voter-turnout-of-phase-1-and-phase-2-of-the-lok-sabha-elections-2019/?do=download&r=27101&confirm=1&t=1&csrfKey=1650383ca1dd13ee8a9a41bb431739e2

Is a report of all seats that voted phase 1 with turnout figures and comparison with 2014.  The AP numbers are disaster.  The problem is ECI failed to match up the 2014 numbers by district with the 2019 numbers.  The reason is that AP split after 2014 into AP and Telangana.  It seems that ECI uses as a "key" the district number which clearly got reset between 2014 and 2019.  Meaning district number X in 2014 is not the same thing as district number X in 2019 and will refer to two different districts.  ECI did not take this into account and their report had absurd numbers for AP where some districts had turnout rate increases of over 30%.  It also had turnout increase in AP of almost 9% which is not accurate.   My own estimate of AP turnout increase is around 2% at most (total number of vote cast increased around 8%.)  Any rudimentary QC process would have caught this.  Pretty disappointed with the lack of professionalism at the ECI. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 07, 2019, 02:25:32 pm
PM Modi praises Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik on tackling Cyclone Fani

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/odisha-naveen-patnaik-modi-1518187-2019-05-06

Now that elections are over in Odisha, Modi praises BJD CM Naveen Patnaik on cyclone disaster.  He continues to attack WB AITC CM Mamata Banerjee on disaster relief as the WB elections are ongoing.

This tells us a couple of things.

1) BJP's internal assessment  must show things are not going so great and BJD might be needed to prop up a Modi government
2) BJP most likely did not do as well as they hoped in Odisha leaving BJD with a bunch of seats to bargain with.

Game theory would say that with BJP as now the main enemy of BJD after this election i fail to see why BJD will support NDA.  On the other hand if BJD could get a large pound of flesh in terms of federal subsidies  Naveen Patnaik  can present himself as the one that brings home the beacon to the Odisha voters.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 07, 2019, 02:36:05 pm
After the 5th round of voting the various bookie projections are beginning to converge toward my projections.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/punters-say-nda-experiencing-engine-drag-after-phase-v-ians-exclusive-119050701210_1.html

1) NDA to win around 230-250 seats (I have 255 or 259 depending on definition of NDA)
2) UPA to win around 135-155 seats (I have 151 for UPA)
3) UP will be NDA 40 SP-BSP-RLD 36 INC 4 (I have it NDA 33 SP-BSP-RLD 45 INC 2)
4) Bihar will be NDA 25 UPA 15 (I have NDA 28 UPA 12)
5) WB  will see BJP win 10 seats (I have BJP at 13)
6) Odisha will see BJP win 10 seats (I have BJP at 13)

https://in.news.yahoo.com/satta-bazaar-predicts-regional-parties-124439226.html

1) Gujarat bookies have NDA at 185-220 !!!
2) Gujarat bookies have UPA at 160-180
3) Gujarat bookie have BJP at 19 seats in Gujarat (I have BJP at 21)
4) Delhi bookies have BJP at 22 seats in Gujarat
5) Mumbai bookies have BJP at 19 seats in Gujarat

This is an ominous sign for Modi.  In 2014 after each round of voting the bookie odds kept on going up for NDA/BJP.  Now this is going on the opposite direction.  A momentum based view of things could mean the result are even worse than these numbers for NDA/BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 07, 2019, 09:50:02 pm
With the UP elections moving east all  parties are pulling out various talking points to try to shift votes in their direction.  It seems the main narrative so far is that the SP-BSP vote are merging on the ground so other parties are trying out talking points to shift votes in their favor.  The vote bloc most up for grabs are the non-Jatav Dalits.

Modi/BJP talking point "SP and BSP alliance will breakup right after the election" -> Agenda: Get SP and BSP voters to not vote for the other party by pointing out that these two parties will be at war again after the election

Modi/BJP talking point "BSP beware, SP-INC have a de facto alliance and is acting against BSP' -> Agenda: Try to stoke up fears of Dalits on possible SP betrayal so they do not vote SP.  Also hint at a possible BJP-BSP alliance to show Dalits that BJP is not anti-Dalit

Akhilesh Yadav/SP talking point "SP will back Mayawait for PM" -> Agenda: Try to calm down Dalit concerns that SP is not in it for the long run in its alliance with BSP and make sure the Dalit vote will vote for SP

Priyanka Gandhi/INC talking point "INC have nominated candidates in a way to hurt BJP in places where INC is weak" -> Agenda:  For seats where INC has a strong candidate INC wants SP-BSP voters to vote INC since INC is helping SP-BSP in seats where INC is weak

Mayawati/BSP talking point "Modi's is desperate so he is trying to split the SP-BSP alliance, this alliance is here to stay" -> Agenda: Dalit voters please do vote SP and OBC voters please do vote BSP since the SP-BSP alliance will be around for the long run

Mayawati/BSP talking point "SP-BSP will support the two Gandhis in their seats so they are free to campaign outside UP and defeat BJP outside of UP" -> Agenda: INC voters please vote SP-BSP since SP-BSP are helping INC outside of UP

Shivpal Singh Yadav/PSP (SP splinter) talking point "SP has to beware of BSP who will betray you just like 1995" -> Agenda: Yadav voters please do vote PSP instead of BSP since the BSP will betray SP soon.

As mentioned before, all these games seems to accept one ground reality: the SP-BSP vote bases seems to have fused so all these talking points are about how to preserve this fusion or try to break it up depending on the party.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Chosen One Giuseppe Conte on May 07, 2019, 11:54:54 pm
At a marco level urban areas are seeing a smaller increase in total vote relative to rural and tribal areas.  All things equal this is negative for BJP overall.

Hick Leftism Will Win


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 08, 2019, 07:23:55 am
More political betting news

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/heads-up-for-bjp-in-delhi-but-one-man-magic-of-2014-missing-119050800398_1.html

The bookie projection for Delhi seems to be BJP 5 INC 2.  If so this pretty bad news for BJP and AAP.  The BJP had expected to sweep (which is still my view) given the AAP-INC split and AAP had expected to win some seats if the BJP were to lose seats.  It seems that the bookies feel that there is surge in support for INC in Delhi.

The 2 seats the bookies identified as INC wins are not implausible.  In North East Delhi INC is fielding former CM Sheila Diksh**t who has still fairly strong appeal (specially among Upper Caste swing voters) in Delhi.  In North West Delhi the Dalit BJP MP resigned from BJP and is backing the  INC candidate calling BJP anti-Dalit.  This could consolidate the Dalit vote around the INC candidate especially when the BSP did not field a candidate.  I still think both are more likely BJP wins but still I agree they could be close.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 08, 2019, 07:42:01 am
Several state governments might fall after the LS elections are out.

1) TN.  With 22 assembly by-elections due to pro-AMMK AIADMK MLAs being disqualified, if the DMK were to sweep these by-elections then AIADMK will lose its majority.  And 3 more AIADMK MLAs have been disqualified after the elections for going over to the AMMK camp.  One way or another unless AIADMK sweeps these by-elections the AIADMK government will fall soon especially if the LS election results are negative.

2) Goa. 3 assembly by-elections are being held for 2 INC MLA defecting to BJP and being disqualified plus the death of a BJP MLA.  If the BJP loses these by-elections AND BJP loses 1 of the 2 LS elections for Goa most likely the BJP government will fall.

3) MP.  The INC holds a very thin majority which is partly based on SP-BSP support.  If the INC does badly in the LS elections in MP then most likely the INC government will fall from a combination of SP-BSP pulling support, INC MLA defections to BJP, and forces within INC opposed to CM Kamal Nath and aligned with  Jyotiraditya Scindia undermining the Nath government.       

4) Karnataka. The JD(S)-INC government is very shaky  with clear rebel factions acting up from time to time.  The ground reports are that there have been significant defections  by both INC and JD(S) votes to BJP and not voting for the ally party.  If the LS election results are negative for JD(S)-INC then the government will most likely fall.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 08, 2019, 10:45:16 am
The BJP surge in WB is a clear demonstration of taking one step backward to take five steps forward.  In mathematical terms it is about the difference between a local maxima versus a global maxima which is why Simulated annealing is often a good technique to use in various AI approaches.

In particular BJP had to lose ground in WB to gain ground.   Back in the early 1990s in WB it was INC vs Left front with BJP in a distant third with a vote based of around 8%-10%.  Then in 1998 Mamata Banerjee, an avowed enemy of the Left Front, left INC to form AITC due to her anger that INC was working with the Left Front tactically at the national level.  BJP formed an alliance with AITC but that merely split the anti-Left Front vote and the alliance did not achieve the goal of defeating Left Front and in fact led to a Left Front landslides in 2004 LS and 2006 assembly elections which only seems to have eroded BJP's base.  Then INC had a falling out with Left Front in 2008 at the national level which triggered a AITC-INC alliance in WB to take on Left Front.  The AITC-INC battle against Left Front in 2009 LS and 2011 assembly election actually ate into the BJP vote base as all anti-Left Front vote consolidated behind AITC-INC.  As a result the BJP vote base was reduced to something like 4%-5%.  But this ended up a blessing in disguise.  The shift of the BJP vote to AITC-INC was critical to the defeat of the Left Front in 2009 and 2011.  The fall of the Left Front actually led to the disintegration of the Left Front vote base most of which went to BJP due to the decades long enmity between the Left Front vote base and  Mamata Banerjee.

So the lesson here was, the BJP had to go from 8%-10% vote base to a 4%-5% vote based for the Left Front to be defeated which freed up the Left Front vote to defect to BJP which now have a vote base of something like 30%-35% and the main opposition party in WB to AITC while Left Front and INC continue to shrink. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 08, 2019, 04:19:42 pm
It is interesting to look at the talking point of different camps on what their views are what the result will be after the 5th round of voting.

The BJP is mostly sticking with their position that NDA will win a comfortable majority (perhaps 2/3) on their own.  Recently  BJP leadership started to admit that most likely BJP will need win a majority on its own (which implies that BJP will lose seats) but with allies will easily form the majority.

On the anti-BJP camp there are more details.

Pro-INC National Herald has on the ground based projections of the 5th round of voting

1) Out of 14 UP seats that voted which went BJP 12 INC 2 back in 2014 it will be SP-BSP-RLD at least 8 INC at least 2 and BJP 2 with 2 tossups. (I have BJP winning 3 INC 2 and SP-BSP-RLD 9)
2) Out of 12 Rajasthan  seats that voted which BJP won all 12 in 2014 will be see INC win at least 6 (I have INC winning 3)
3) Out of 7 MP seats that voted which BJP won all 7 back in 2014 the BJP could lose 4 seats. (I have BJP winning 6 out of 7)
4) Out of 7 seats in WB that voted which AITC won all 7 back in 2014 looks like AITC will beat back BJP in all 7 (I have BJP winning 2 of them)
5) Out of 4 seats in Jharkhand that voted which BJP won all 4 back in 2014 BJP will lose 2 of them. (I have BJP winning 3 of them)
https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/lok-sabha-elections-2019/fifth-phase-of-polls-bjp-set-to-lose-at-least-20-seats

A more dramatic projection comes from Left-Progressive Newsclick

https://www.newsclick.in/Elections-2019-5-Phase-NDA-Losing

The boldly have for the first 5 phases NDA losing half their seats from 2014
()
()
()

Their projection, I think are quixotic, especially for the Left front.

1) They have Left Front winning 2 seats in WB which seems very unlikely
2) They have Left Front winning 15 out of 20 in Kerala which is pretty much impossible
3) The run rate they have for UP have NDA there crashing to around 20
4) They have Bihar as even so far between the two camps
5)  They have slight edge for INC in Rajasthan
6) They do give the edge to BJP in MP so far
7) They have INC winning Gujarat ??!!
8) They have UPA winning Maharashtra
9) They do have NDA doing OK in TN getting to 11 seats
10) They have NDA sweeping Jharkhand so far

What is interesting about this projection is they have NDA actually  over-performing in  Jharkhand  and TN which having unrealistically low numbers for NDA/BJP in other states.

The clearly have one bug.  In Nagaland they have OTHER winning.  I think they mean BJP's ex-ally NPF.  They must have missed the memo that NPF dropped out to back INC against BJP ally and NPF splinter NDPP.  The winner in Nagaland is clearly going to NDA or UPA and not OTHER  This mistake makes me question the seriousness of this projection versus just some anti-BJP hack coming out with some wildly poor results for BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 09, 2019, 06:58:16 am
BJP view of how the election is going so far does not have a lot on details.  It mostly admits that it will lose ground in UP but the loss could be contained.  It also feels that Modi is helping BJP toward victory in places like Karnataka Bihar and Haryana.  It also claims a surge in support for BJP in WB and Kerala but does not seem to indicate a large growth in seats there.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/news/bjp-survey-sees-groundswell-of-support/articleshow/69242974.cms


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 09, 2019, 12:20:20 pm
Anthro AI came out with their UP projection based on the first 5 rounds

https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/the-undercurrent-is-an-earthquake/

The have

1) BJP 15-25 (closer to 15) [I assume AD(S) will be 0-1 based on this?]
2) SP-BSP-RLD 40-55 (closer to 55)
3) INC 5-9

This means the best guess for their medium projection would be something like
NDA: 19 (BJP 18 AD(S) 1)
SP-BSP-RLD: 54
INC:  7

While I have
NDA:  33 (BJP 31 AD(S) 2)
SP-BSL-RLD: 45
INC: 2

Their narrative is that various OBC voters that swung to BJP in 2014 LS and 2017 assembly will swing back to SP-BSP-RLD given their disappointment with BJP at the center as well as the state level. The movement away from BJP  are led by women voters.  Overall there will be a 3%-5%  swing away from BJP plus the consolidation of SP-BSP-RLD will smash BJP.

What the narrative does not address is how will INC win 5-9 seats.  The only way that could be is if in some seats there are large moments of Upper Caste and Muslim voters toward INC.  There does not seem to be any sign of this based on other ground reports.  In seems in some seats based on the candidate the INC could take some BJP Upper Caste voters but only enough to harm BJP but not enough for INC to win.

My model have a 3.5% swing away from BJP but does assume that the SP-BSP-RLD alliance is not perfect and votes will leak toward BJP which gets the BJP vote share below 2017 but not that far below.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 09, 2019, 08:20:23 pm
Starting the last few days Modi started to shift his attack to former INC PM Rajiv Gandhi who is also father of Rahul Gandhi.

At first it seems like an one off

"Your father’s life ended as ‘Corrupt No.1’: PM Modi to Rahul Gandhi"
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/your-fathers-life-ended-as-corrupt-no1-pm-modi-to-rahul-gandhi/article27038808.ece

But after that within a couple of days Modi came back to continue the attack

"Gandhi family used INS Viraat as ‘personal taxi’: Modi"
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/gandhi-family-used-ins-viraat-as-personal-taxi-pm-modi/article27076591.ece

It did no take long to figure out Modi's plan.  He is trying to target the Sikh vote now that Punjab (majority Sikh), Haryana(significant number of Sikhs) and Delhi(significant number of Sikhs) are about to vote.  Due to the circumstances of Rajiv Gandhi's assassination by Tamil extremist LTTE in 1991 he is revered in TN.  On the other hand due to Rajiv Gandhi's proximity with the 1984 INC pogrom against the Sikh in the wake of the Indira Gandhi assassination Rajiv Gandhi invokes bitter memories within the Sikh community.  So Modi has to bring Rajiv Gandhi into the news and link him to INC AFTER TN has voted and BEFORE Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi voted.  Very clever move.  Not sure it will work but clever nevertheless.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2019, 05:02:23 am
NDTV analysis of recent trends in UP especially with impact of Priyanka Gandhi

UP is heavy Dalit and Muslims
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UP is heavy rural
()

Unlike Anthro UI NDTV feels that BJP is gaining among women
()

Youth vote leaning BJP
()

There seems to be extreme caste polarization that NDTV thinks works to the advantage of the BJP

Upper Caste going completely over to BJP
()

Core Yadav Jatav and Muslim votes of SP-BSP seems to be polarized and transferable
()

INC vote going up 10% as a result of Priyanka Gandhi which NDTV feels hurts SP-BSP
()

BJP losing ground with non-Jatav Dalits which is more going to INC than SP-BSP
()

Non Yadav OBC
()

I am not sure I agree that BJP is benefiting from the caste polarization in absolute terms even if they are gaining in relative terms due to the INC surge.  If you take the various NDTV non-polling inferences of vote by community you can compute the following chart and derive overall vote share. I assume that all 100% of the votes are divided between BJP+, INC, and SP-BSP-RLD for simplicity

                         Size        BJP      INC     SP-BSP
Uppe Caste         20%      80%     15%        5%
Yadav                 10%      15%       5%      80%
Non-Yadav OBC   30%      55%     10%      35%
Jatav                  10%      15%       5%      80%
Non-Jatav Dalit    10%      35%     30%      35%
Muslims              20%      10%     22%      68%

Total                              41%      14.5%    44.5%

Which does give SP-BSP a 3.5% lead over BJP even as INC surges to 14.5% of the vote.  A 3.5% lead by SP-BSP will not be a meltdown for BJP but will be a significant defeat.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2019, 07:40:34 am
https://www.thequint.com/elections/bjp-seat-share-predictions-for-lok-sabha-elections-2019-by-ambit-report

Brokerage firm Ambit came out with a report with LS election projections

1) BJP to win 190-210 LS seats overall
2) NDA to win 220-240 LS seats overall
3) In UP BJP to win 30-35 seats with a vote share of 34.2% to 45% for SP-BSP-RLD

This projection seems to have BJP allies at around 30 seats.  If so then you can sort of piece out why BJP is under-performing pre-election polls as per this projection.  For BJP allies to be at 30 seems to suggest NDA under-performance in Bihar, Maharashtra TN and maybe Punjab.  The logic is simple.  Assuming NDA does well in these states then you would expect

a) Bihar - If NDA 28 seats then JD(U) plus LJP should at least 13
b) Maharashtra - If NDA gets 34 then SHS should be at least 14
c) TN - If NDA gets 10 then BJP allies should be at least 8
d) Punjab - if NDA at 3 seats then SAD should be at least 2

But if NDA allies are at 30 then in all these 4 states NDA will will under-perform those benchmarks by a significant  margin since one would expect AD(S) to win a seat (if BJP is at 30-35 in UP) and NDPP to win a seat in Nagaland.   The sum of the minimum allies seats in those 4 states are 38.  If they end up being 28 instead then NDA is looking at at something like 23 for Bihar, 29 for Maharashtra ,  5 for TN, and 2 for Punjab.  This also will go to explain how the BJP will end up in the 190-210 range.

Also in UP if the vote share are BJP 34.2% SP-BSP-RLD 45% then it will be a blowout and I suspect BJP seat count will be in the 10-15 range and not 30-35 range.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2019, 04:58:49 pm
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/trends-favour-bjp-but-cong-giving-tough-fight-in-mp/770665.html

The Tribune analysis of MP has it at BJP 16 INC 8 and Tossup 5.  Mostly in line with my BJP 19 INC 10 current projection. Even the regional breakdown projections seems to roughly mirror my.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 11, 2019, 07:53:38 am
After 5 rounds of voting there seems to be an unsaid consensus that there is a reasonable chance that NDA will far short of majority, perhaps by some margin.  The opposition forces are now working to stitch up post-election alliances to prevent the pro-BJP President of India from calling the largest party (which will be BJP) to form the government by presenting a large anti-BJP coalition with a majority to the President of India when the results are out.

Just like before the campaign started, there are two such axis of effort and both stem from Telegu speaking parties, namely TDP's Naidu and TRS's KCR.  TDP's effort revolve around an alliance that includes INC which depending on the numbers could mean a INC PM or from an anti-BJP regional party.  TRS's effort revolve around a non-BJP non-INC group of parties with the understanding that BJP or INC (and more likely BJP) will support such a government from the outside.

There have been efforts like this before and they usually revolve or break from a bunch of such alliance "rules."  It might be useful to review these "rules" as some of them have changed.

a) AIADMK and DMK cannot be on the same side: This is still true but with AIADMK in the BJP camp and DMK in the INC camp this is pretty much not an issue.

b) SP and BSP cannot be on the same side: This is for sure no longer true as SP and BSP are now allies

c) RJD and JD(U) cannot be on the same side:  This is still mostly true but the 2014-2017 period saw a RJD and JD(U) alliance so I think this rule can be seen as changeable

d) TDP and INC cannot be on the same side: This is no longer true since these days INC and TDP are tacit allies and TPD mostly back INC in Telangana. 

e) AITC and Left Front cannot be on the same side: This is beginning to no longer to be true.  The surge of the BJP in WB means that for both AITC and Left Front view BJP as the main enemy which means both could be on the same side.

f) BJD and INC cannot be on the same side:  Mostly not true anymore since the BJP surge in Odisha means that BJD no longer sees INC as its main enemy.

Of course these Telegu based efforts did create a new "rule"

a) TDP and YSRCP cannot be on the same side: These two parties are deadly rivals now so this rule would make sense now. 

There are rumors about some post-election surprise alliances

a) BSP could go back BJP which seems unlikely unless BSP becomes the senior partner in UP which the UP BJP would almost not accept

b) YSRCP joins up with INC.  Of course this could destroy TDP where it would have nowhere to go as TDP have mostly, for now, burned its bridges with BJP

c) BJD could join up with INC.  Of course there are signs that BJP sense this as well and are going to overdrive to woo BJD.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: xelas81 on May 11, 2019, 11:50:57 am
After 5 rounds of voting there seems to be an unsaid consensus that there is a reasonable chance that NDA will far short of majority, perhaps by some margin.  The opposition forces are now working to stitch up post-election alliances to prevent the pro-BJP President of India from calling the largest party (which will be BJP) to form the government by presenting a large anti-BJP coalition with a majority to the President of India when the results are out.
......

So, it seems likely that who ever becomes next PM will lead unstable coalition and probably not last 5 years before an election.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 11, 2019, 03:35:34 pm
The quint reported on the trend of rural anger where government-NGO efforts for rural development sounded great at kickoff but follow-through was poor.  They went to one "Trump" village in Haryana when in 2017 an Indian government-NGO went on a campaign to build more toilets in this backward village of mostly Muslims where there are only 20 toilets for 160+ houses.  And in honor of Trump's upcoming visit to India the village was renamed "Trump" with great fanfare.

()
()


A recent visit by the The Quint there revealed that while some toilets were built but they were not operating due to lack of water making them useless.  Otherwise the situation in this village is just as poor as it was 2 years ago.
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia on May 11, 2019, 05:56:15 pm
What would be the best possible electoral result if you support continued Indian economic reform?

Analyzing Narendra Modi's performance on the Indian economy (https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/politics/100519/analyzing-narendra-modis-performance-on-the-indian-economy.html)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 11, 2019, 09:54:48 pm
After 5 rounds of voting there seems to be an unsaid consensus that there is a reasonable chance that NDA will far short of majority, perhaps by some margin.  The opposition forces are now working to stitch up post-election alliances to prevent the pro-BJP President of India from calling the largest party (which will be BJP) to form the government by presenting a large anti-BJP coalition with a majority to the President of India when the results are out.
......

So, it seems likely that who ever becomes next PM will lead unstable coalition and probably not last 5 years before an election.

Yes, it is very possible.  Of course usually when an election seems like will throw up a result that could lead to chaos the voters tend to consolidate behind one the the blocs and produce a stable majority. 

If you look at this election from the point of view of Rahul Gandhi whose goal I have to assume that he wants to lead a stable INC led government and is willing to wait a election cycle or two to get it, his ranking preference of NDA (plus pro-NDA parties) seats would be among all possible outcomes with a granularity of 20 seats.

1. 180 - Rahul Gandhi is viewing 2019 as semifinals instead this would he will win game set match
2. 240 - There is no chance of a non-BJP government but it will be very unstable BJP government which will fall apart after a while after being constantly blackmailed by allies with the result of a midterm election that INC will win
3. 200 - A INC government would be formed but there will be heavy dependencies on various regional parties
4. 260 - BJP government would be formed but will be difficult to manage and even if it complete a full term INC is likely to win the next election
5. 280 - Similar to 260 but a bit better for BJP
6. 300 - Strong BJP performance means that next general election INC will have its work cut out for it to win even with BJP facing double anti-incumbency
7. 220 - No BJP government is possible but INC would be too weak to form a government.  INC would be force to back a bloc of regional parties that will form a government with a compromise PM.  This would be chaotic and will lead to INC losing support to BJP and then a midterm election that BJP will sweep.
8. 320 - Disastrous result for INC which will lose its position as a real national party and a realignment will take place with INC support flowing to both BJP and other rivals with 2024 being a very different battle with INC not a central player to fight against BJP


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 12, 2019, 09:02:25 am
Phase 6 voting done. Prelim turnout by state vs rough 2014 turnout are

                       2019             2014
WB                  80.35%         84.9%
Delhi                59.73%         65.2%
Haryana           68.34%         71.5%
UP                   54.74%         54.4%
Bihar               59.29%          57.1%
Jharkhand        64.50%         65.0%
MP                   66.76%         57.0%

Turnout increased in MP which in this non-tribal area should be positive for BJP.  UP, Bihar and Jharkhand turnout around the same as 2014 which I guess neutral.  Haryana and Delhi turnout fell which is mostly negative for BJP.  WB turnout fell which I think is positive for BJP as this seems to indicate AITC Left Front and INC turnout has fallen.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 12, 2019, 01:52:44 pm
My dad believes the BJP needs to be in for at least 12-13 years to  change India and cement the changes for the long run, just like how the GOP needed 3 terms in 1980s to cement Neo-Liberalism and Thatcher needed to win 3 elections to cement in Thatcherism.


How many seats do you think they need to last 12-13 years(So up to 2027 or 2028)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 12, 2019, 03:05:12 pm
What would be the best possible electoral result if you support continued Indian economic reform?

Analyzing Narendra Modi's performance on the Indian economy (https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/politics/100519/analyzing-narendra-modis-performance-on-the-indian-economy.html)

On paper it would be a solid majority for NDA.  I still feel Modi being out and having someone else from the BJP as PM would be better.  This demonetization was a disaster and all this fake economic data scandals all seems to be ways to cover up the impact of demonetization which continues to today.  An alternative would be a solid majority for UPA although while I do think Rahul Gandhi have matured as a campaigner this election cycle I think it would be a mistake to make him PM this election cycle. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 12, 2019, 03:08:55 pm
My dad believes the BJP needs to be in for at least 12-13 years to  change India and cement the changes for the long run, just like how the GOP needed 3 terms in 1980s to cement Neo-Liberalism and Thatcher needed to win 3 elections to cement in Thatcherism.


How many seats do you think they need to last 12-13 years(So up to 2027 or 2028)

I would say something like NDA at 300-310.  That would ensure that in 2024 a weakened INC is still the main opponent.  A political realignment resulting from an even bigger NDA landslide could produce even more dangerous opponents for BJP in 2024.    I think at this stage the result will most likely be bi-model: It will either be NDA at around 300 or BJP under-performs and NDA ends up around 210 seats.  I think the chance something in between is getting less and less likely.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 12, 2019, 03:14:08 pm
PM Modi Says BJP Knows Art of Running Coalitions, Has Vajpayee's Legacy to Bank On

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/pm-modi-says-bjp-knows-art-of-running-coalitions-has-vajpayees-legacy-to-bank-on-2137609.html

Even Modi is now talking about coalitions.  I guess internally BJP now admits it will not be some BJP landslide which has been the BJP position this entire election season.  This is not good as it it shows the momentum is going against the BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 13, 2019, 06:36:30 am
What would be the best possible electoral result if you support continued Indian economic reform?

Analyzing Narendra Modi's performance on the Indian economy (https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/politics/100519/analyzing-narendra-modis-performance-on-the-indian-economy.html)

On this topic

"India Hoped for an Abe. It Got a Lost Decade"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/india-hoped-for-an-abe-it-got-a-lost-decade/2019/05/11/638e0a94-7451-11e9-9331-30bc5836f48e_story.html?utm_term=.9639d0cc4a85

While I agree that Modi has been a disappointment I disagree Abe was that great either.  I would put the both of them in the same category.   Both talk big about economic reform but in the end came up with easy policies that help them get re-elected than any real lasting reform.    In 2014 I suspected this would be the case given Modi's record in Gujarat of mostly talk and PR and at lot less action but hoped that it would be different with a large majority as PM.  Instead it as the same.    I think both Modi and Abe are able administrators but neither are Thatchers or even Reagan.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 13, 2019, 07:05:48 am
Anthro AI came out with post-6th phase voting on the ground report of UP and like the other rounds it gets more and more ugly for BJP

https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/he-freed-the-cow-whos-going-to-bell-yogi/

They now not just see SP and BSP voting bases fusing but also some the Upper Caste vote pealing off from BJP to vote for INC.  They predict at that BJP will be defeated in all 14 seats in the 6th found whereas in 2014 it was BJP 13 SP 1. One key implication of their projection is that Maneka Gandhi (daughter in law of Indira Gandhi) will lose her seat in Sultanpur which would be huge.  They also predicted that in one of the seats they see INC doing very well.  I suspect that seat is Pratapgarh where the AD(S) incumbent was dumped and the BJP candidate is an AD(S) import giving the INC ex-MP here a chance to come back.   I have it as SP-BSP 12 BJP 2 with BJP keeping Sultanpur  and Pratapgarh.

Their UP seat projection are now

SP-BSP-RLD    53 (+/-5)
BJP-AD(S)       22(+/-3)
INC                  5(+/-2)

Anthro AI identified BJP CM Yogi Adityanath the source of the fall of BJP fortunes in Eastern UP.  Namely his Thakurs caste are running wild with power aliening all other communities including Brahmin. 

https://theprint.in/politics/in-uttar-pradesh-dalits-and-yadavs-pretend-they-never-hated-each-other/234632/

Sort of alludes to this as well

Quote
“When Yogi Adityanath became chief minister, he had the CM’s residence in Lucknow ‘purified’ before he entered it. This was because Akhilesh was a Yadav. If we are all Hindu, what was the need for this purification ritual?” he asks.

Quote
These Dalit activists are part of a larger network, the Dynamic Action Group, a Dalit rights NGO. Its Lucknow-based chief, Ram Kumar, had been briefly detained by the police in 2017 when he was trying to protest against the government. The protest was to gift the Yogi government a 150-kg soap bar after the chief minister’s office had distributed soap and shampoo to Dalits before the chief minister visited them.

The way BJP CM Yogi Adityanath treats other social communities seem to be driving them away despite Modi's relative popularity.

The Anthro AI ground report shares many points with the NDTV ground report but disagree on others.    The areas the two ground reports seem to agree are

1) SP BSP bases of Yadav and Jatav Dalits seems to be fusing behind the SP-BSP-RLD alliance despite a history of animosity
2)  BJP CM Yogi Adityanath is unpopular and is hurting the BJP
3) Young men are going over to the BJP for nationalism

Things the two ground reports disagree about

1) Priyanka Gandhi is having an impact but NDTV claims she is driving non-Jatav Dalits toward INC but not Upper Castes while Anthro AI seems to indicate the opposite.  The NDTV narrative is very positive for BJP while the Anthro AI narrative is very negative for BJP.
2) NDTV indicates that BJP is gaining among women voters while Anthro AI indicates that women voters are moving away from BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: urutzizu on May 13, 2019, 07:09:26 am
Modi is not really neoliberal at all. He is more of a statist and economic nationalist like Putin or de Gaulle. Take the Tariffs against Amazon and co. for example. His only substantial achievement in terms of economic reform has been GST and that was simply a rollover from Singhs Governement. The one thing he really has in common with Thatcher however is that both used a military conflict to win reelection when both have only questionable economic success in their first term.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 13, 2019, 08:36:41 am
In UP’s Ghosi, rape-accused candidate on the run, SP-BSP takes caste route
https://indianexpress.com/elections/atul-rai-sp-bsp-alliance-ghosi-elections-2019-5724372/

In UP's Ghosi where voting will take place later this week in the last round of voting the BSP candidate, Atul Rai,  has disappeared and is on the run due to rape charges.  
()

He will be on the run up to and including the election itself.  As the article points out looking at voting records of Eastern UP in the past the negative impact of this on BSP will likely be small.  My current model has BSP beating BJP by around 6%.  I see no reason to change my prediction of this seat which is a BSP victory.  Assuming Atul Rai  does win then he will have de facto immunity from these charges given he will be a MP given how slow the integration and prosecution will be.  His main problem will be how to sneak into the Parliament building  to the the oath without the police arresting him since before he is able to take the oath he will not have the status of a MP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 13, 2019, 08:48:56 am
Speaking of candidates with criminal backgrounds

1 in 5 Candidates Accused of a Heinous Crime in India’s Election
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/congress-bjp-leaders-play-mind-games-ahead-of-results/articleshow/69298350.cms

Quote
About 19% of those standing in the election face charges including rape, murder and kidnapping, New-Delhi based Association of Democratic Reforms said Monday, citing signed affidavits submitted to the Election Commission.

It seems around 40% of BJP and 39% of INC candidates have a criminal record.  I recall reading an analysis back in 2014 that indicated that having being charged with a serious crime (ape, murder and kidnapping) makes it more likely the candidate will be elected.   This is because such a candidate will most likely have muscle and money power which would be decisive in rural districts.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 13, 2019, 11:39:31 am
While exit polls cannot be released; projections that are based on surveys and not exit polls can be released.

Business standard reported on 3 such projections.  One from Think Tank CSEPR, and two other from two separate psephologists.  All 3 seems to have NDA under-performing pre-election polls

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/pollsters-suggest-bjp-slowdown-in-dangal-2019-but-no-upa-gain-119051300113_1.html

Overall:
CSEPR: NDA 231 UPA 174
First psephologist: NDA 234 UPA 169
Second psephologist: NDA 204 (BJP 168) Pro-NDA parties (YSRCP, TRS, BJD) 50 UPA + anti-NDA parties 287(INC 117)
My projection: NDA (plus NDA allies) 258 (BJP 212) UPA 151 (INC 96)

UP:
CESPR: SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 30 INC 5
First psephologist:SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 30 INC 5
Second psephologist: SP-BSP-RLD 50 NDA 28 INC 2
My projection: SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 33 INC 2

WB:
CESPR: AITC 32 BJP 8 INC 2
First psephologist: AITC 31 BJP 9 INC 2
Second psephologist: AITC 36 BJP 5 INC 1
My projection: AITC 28 BJP 12 INC 2

Bihar:
CESPR: NDA 22 UPA 18
First psephologist: NDA 25 UPA 15
Second psephologist: NDA 20 UPA 20
My projection: NDA 28 UPA 12

Maharashtra:
CESPR: NDA 34 UPA 14
First psephologist: NDA 28 UPA 20
Second psephologist: NDA 28 UPA 20
My projection: NDA 33 UPA 15

It seems my projection which was pretty much the most pro-UPA out here has become more mainstream and becoming a relatively more pro-NDA projection.  I still think most projections out there are underestimating the anti-incumbency in WB and Odisha and as a result underestimate the BJP seat share there.   For UP and especially Bihar I might be wrong and need to converge my projection.  My rule of thumb is "unless the state assembly election is recent, always go for the projections that is the most negative for the state government" 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on May 13, 2019, 12:10:48 pm
While exit polls cannot be released; projections that are based on surveys and not exit polls can be released.

Business standard reported on 3 such projections.  One from Think Tank CSEPR, and two other from two separate psephologists.  All 3 seems to have NDA under-performing pre-election polls

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/pollsters-suggest-bjp-slowdown-in-dangal-2019-but-no-upa-gain-119051300113_1.html

Overall:
CSEPR: NDA 231 UPA 174
First psephologist: NDA 234 UPA 169
Second psephologist: NDA 204 (BJP 168) Pro-NDA parties (YSRCP, TRS, BJD) 50 UPA + anti-NDA parties 287(INC 117)
My projection: NDA (plus NDA allies) 258 (BJP 212) UPA 151 (INC 96)

UP:
CESPR: SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 30 INC 5
First psephologist:SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 30 INC 5
Second psephologist: SP-BSP-RLD 50 NDA 28 INC 2
My projection: SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 33 INC 2

WB:
CESPR: AITC 32 BJP 8 INC 2
First psephologist: AITC 31 BJP 9 INC 2
Second psephologist: AITC 36 BJP 5 INC 1
My projection: AITC 28 BJP 12 INC 2

Bihar:
CESPR: NDA 22 UPA 18
First psephologist: NDA 25 UPA 15
Second psephologist: NDA 20 UPA 20
My projection: NDA 28 UPA 12

Maharashtra:
CESPR: NDA 34 UPA 14
First psephologist: NDA 28 UPA 20
Second psephologist: NDA 28 UPA 20
My projection: NDA 33 UPA 15

It seems my projection which was pretty much the most pro-UPA out here has become more mainstream and becoming a relatively more pro-NDA projection.  I still think most projections out there are underestimating the anti-incumbency in WB and Odisha and as a result underestimate the BJP seat share there.   For UP and especially Bihar I might be wrong and need to converge my projection.  My rule of thumb is "unless the state assembly election is recent, always go for the projections that is the most negative for the state government" 

If the NDA gets only 200 seats in the LS then Modi is done, right? Probably a Ghandi premiership at that point?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 13, 2019, 02:30:42 pm

If the NDA gets only 200 seats in the LS then Modi is done, right? Probably a Ghandi premiership at that point?

If NDA is at 200 then Modi is for sure out and most likely it will not even be a NDA government.   The basic idea is that TRS + YSRCP + BJD should be at most around 55  so 200+55=255 is well less than majority.  NDA at 220-230 would mean a NDA government but most likely without Modi

As for what sort of government it would depend on the number of seats INC would have.  I would put the threshold at around 135.  If INC has 135 or more then the PM will be INC.  If INC is less than 135 seats then chances are that the PM will be a regional party compromise candidate with INC support from the outside.   NDA at 200 would put INC around that threshold.  NDA at 200 would mean BJP is around 175.  The rule of thumb in this election is the number of seats BJP plus INC should win is around 305-310.  So BJP at 175 means INC would be at 130-135 which is right on the threshold. 

Like I pointed out before on the game theory preferences for Gandhi the reverse is true for BJP.  If BJP could not get the NDA to something like 240-250 then they rather be down at 200 then 220-230 where it will have to form a Frankenstein government which would not last and lead to an easy INC victory in the next election. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Simfan34 on May 13, 2019, 02:42:46 pm
I am not well-versed at all when it comes to Indian politics, but it does seems as if Rahul Gandhi, at the very least, has at last found his political groove. It is interesting talking to some of my Indian classmates, many of them quite seriously seem to believe the NDA won't be able to form a government at all. One, from Lucknow, said that Yogi Adityanath's unpopularity would drag down the BJP in UP, which does appear to be what's happening.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 13, 2019, 06:11:07 pm
With the limited data we have the momentum seems to be stalling for NDA.  If so there is a fair chance that NDA plus pro-NDA parties in the Northeast might not cross 272 for a majority.  If so where will the BJP find support to form a government.  The choices are the regional parties YSRCP, TRS and BJD.  I would rate the chances of these parties backing a BJP government as

YSRCP: High
TRS: Medium
BJD: Low

The stronger the BJP is in the state of the regional party the less likely said party will back a NDA government.  The BJP is the weakest in AP, has a base although very localized to urban areas in Telangana, and fairly strong and rising in Odisha.

YSRCP has already stated that it would back a NDA government at the federal level if they do not have the numbers if NDA would grant special status for AP.  Part of this is a ploy to get tactical voting by BJP voters in AP but with TDP clearly anti-BJP YSRCP clearly would lean BJP.  In fact AP might end up like TN where TDP and YSRCP would be like DMK and AIADMK  being the dominate local regional rivals and swap partners with national parties like BJP and INC from time to time.

TRS for the same reason will most likely back NDA if necessary given its main rival in  Telangana is INC.  Still it is clear that BJP has ambitions to grow in Telangana which would give TRS second thoughts.

BJD has been allies with BJP in the past and still has a fairly anti-INC stance.  But with this election where BJP could end up a strong rival to BJD if not pull of a surprise to beat BJD in the LS elections the BJD is unlikely to want to back BJP at the federal level.  In fact if BJP does usually well the question BJD would have to ask would eventually be: Should BJD form an alliance with INC.

Given the recent chatter it seems my game theory based approach to figuring out which swing party might go with whom is totally wrong.  It seems that BJD might be leaning toward backing BJP post election and YSRCP and TRS might be leaning toward backing INC.  YSRCP makes the most sense.  Given how TDP and BJP burned their bridges a YSRCP-INC alliance will ensure YSRCP domination in AP while TDP and BJP are not aligned.  The other two does not make sense to me but these chatter might be mind games they are playing.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 13, 2019, 06:16:46 pm
I am not well-versed at all when it comes to Indian politics, but it does seems as if Rahul Gandhi, at the very least, has at last found his political groove. It is interesting talking to some of my Indian classmates, many of them quite seriously seem to believe the NDA won't be able to form a government at all. One, from Lucknow, said that Yogi Adityanath's unpopularity would drag down the BJP in UP, which does appear to be what's happening.

If Modi is ousted from power then he would have thrown away a once in a lifetime chance at altering the political and economic trajectory of India.  I think in retrospect his mistake was not working with a bloc of INC MPs in the Upper House that would have backed a lot of his reform plans if he tried to work out deals with INC.  Instead he read the 2014 election as a massive realignment of the electorate where INC was reduced to a regional party and BJP will take on the dominance of politics like INC once did in the 1952-1977 period.  I think he instead should have read the post 2014 period more like the 1991-2014 period where INC had the upper hand but a BJP that can form the right alliance can defeat but with BJP instead of INC.

As a result Modi took the approach of trying to eliminate INC as a national party and converged to narrative that INC == Muslims == Pakistan which merely made all chance of BJP-INC cooperation inoperable.  As a result due to the NDA not having an Upper House majority Modi could not get as much down and have to fall back to Hindu nationalism to win.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 13, 2019, 06:29:57 pm
A detailed version of the first First psephologist projections as mentioned in

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/pollsters-suggest-bjp-slowdown-in-dangal-2019-but-no-upa-gain-119051300113_1.html

Looks reasonable and for sure a more negative version of my projection for the BJP but still quite plausible as part of a NDA under-performance projection.  Some key details

1) This psephologist counts TDP as UPA which is really not true.  So UPA is really 167 and not 169
2) Sikkim's SDF should really be counted as pro-NDA so NDA is really 235 not 234
3) I rough guess for seats are BJP 194 INC 115.

BJP at 194 would be really dicey for Modi to stay on.  This sort of result will most likely be a BJP government form by someone other than Modi.

Other thoughts
1) INC at 4 for Telangana is a real shock.  I think INC would be lucky to win 1.
2) I am surprised given BJP's under-performance they they seat count in Chhattisgarh(4 out of 11) and Jharkhand(6 out of 14) would hold up so well.  Seems to indicate that the BJP drop in tribal support might be exaggerated.   
3) INC-JD(S) at 11 out of 28 in Karnataka is a real disaster and most likely the JD(S)-INC government will fall
4) DMK-INC winning 33 out of 39 TN seats would imply that AIADMK would get hammered in the TN assembly by-elections and the AIADMK government will most likely fall
5) I do like and agree with the fact that despite overall BJP under-performance it still have BJP doing reasonably well in WB and Odisha.
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 13, 2019, 08:46:35 pm
It seems the amount of cash and other assets intended to be used for vote buying that have been seized by the ECI is around $500 million.  The estimated cost of the India 2019 elections is already up to $7 billion which has already exceed the cost of the 2016 US election cycle.  If you add in the implied amount of money being spent on vote buying the cost of 2019 Indian election on a per capita basis might be as high as 40%-50% of the 2016 USA cycle.  And that is in a country where the GDP/capita is well below USA.  If look at the spending in PPP terms the cost per capita is well ahead of the USA 2016 cycle.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: xelas81 on May 13, 2019, 08:58:40 pm
It seems the amount of cash and other assets intended to be used for vote buying that have been seized by the ECI is around $500 million.  The estimated cost of the India 2019 elections is already up to $7 billion which has already exceed the cost of the 2016 US election cycle.  If you add in the implied amount of money being spent on vote buying the cost of 2019 Indian election on a per capita basis might be as high as 40%-50% of the 2016 USA cycle.  And that is in a country where the GDP/capita is well below USA.  If look at the spending in PPP terms the cost per capita is well ahead of the USA 2016 cycle.

Where is does the captured money and other assets go?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 14, 2019, 06:42:19 am
It seems the amount of cash and other assets intended to be used for vote buying that have been seized by the ECI is around $500 million.  The estimated cost of the India 2019 elections is already up to $7 billion which has already exceed the cost of the 2016 US election cycle.  If you add in the implied amount of money being spent on vote buying the cost of 2019 Indian election on a per capita basis might be as high as 40%-50% of the 2016 USA cycle.  And that is in a country where the GDP/capita is well below USA.  If look at the spending in PPP terms the cost per capita is well ahead of the USA 2016 cycle.

Where is does the captured money and other assets go?

Not sure.  I assume the assets will become the property of the Federal government of India with some legal procedure for the owners of the assets to make a case that the assets have nothing to do with elections and try to claim the money back.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 14, 2019, 07:39:02 am
I talked about this before but TRS's plan for a non-BJP non-INC government will just not fly.  If you look at my current model if look a my projected first and second place finishers in each seat you get 191 seats where BJP and INC are fighting it out, 147 seats where BJP is fighting it out with another non-INC party and 73 seats where INC is fighting it out with another non-BJP party.  If you assume that the BJP-Other and INC-Other seats are split down the middle you get BJP plus INC seat count at 316 seats which is pretty close to my "rule of thumb" in this election that BJP plus INC will get around 310 seats. 

I suspect TRS's KCR sees this logic and now seems to be fighting for some sort of Federal Front backed by either BJP or INC (at this stage it looks more like INC) OR a INC or BJP led government (it looks more like a INC government) where a regional party leader (he is thinking of himself) will take on the role as DPM as to ensure that the powers of the government are more evenly shared between the regional front and the national party in question.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 14, 2019, 09:55:47 am
VDP Associates, which is one of the smaller Indian polling agency that historically have a BJP lean keeps on coming out with enticing messages about what they exit poll will show for UP.  First they keep on going on about how much impact  Priyanka Gandhi  is having and that she has a bright future in politics.  Then they push the line that  Priyanka Gandhi will lead INC to a very strong performance in the 2022 UP assembly elections. Then a day or two ago they indicated that their UP exit poll will "stun most." 

This got me thinking on what would a "stunning" exit poll result.  It seems the VDP narrative is that INC will exceed expectations by some margin.   The current CW is that INC vote is squeezed between BJP and SP-BSP-RLD.  Another CW narrative is that INC is taking some votes away from SP-BSP-RLD and throwing the race to BJP.   But for the result to "stun most" INC will have to do better then that and that will most likely be INC taking votes away from BJP as well leading to a BJP victory but not massive one.

A NDTV based projection of the vote share by estimating support by community would be (assuming that the three fronts together get 100% of he vote which is not possible as it would be most likely be around 92%-93%)

                         Size        BJP      INC     SP-BSP
Uppe Caste         20%      80%     15%        5%
Yadav                 10%      15%       5%      80%
Non-Yadav OBC   30%      55%     10%      35%
Jatav                  10%      15%       5%      80%
Non-Jatav Dalit    10%      35%     30%      35%
Muslims              20%      10%     22%       68%

Total                               41%      14.5%    44.5%

I think a possible VDP "stun most" exit poll might show something like

                         Size        BJP      INC     SP-BSP
Uppe Caste         20%      70%     30%        5%
Yadav                 10%      15%       5%      80%
Non-Yadav OBC   30%      60%     15%      25%
Jatav                  10%      15%       5%      80%
Non-Jatav Dalit    10%      20%     70%      10%
Muslims              20%      10%     40%       50%

Total                               39%    26.5%    35.5%

Where SP BSP still keeps its Yadav and Jatav base intact but INC captures all the the defection of Non-Jatav Dalit from BJP, eat into the BJP Upper Caste vote base, and take over a large bloc of the Muslim vote. Which should produce seat count of something like

BJP               45
INC              15
SP-BSP-RLD  20

Which would be a moderate BJP victory but gives INC a strong momentum into the 2022 UP assembly. I doubt the exit poll be as dramatic as this but if it were it would fit VDP claim of "stun most"  Also the fact is the INC candidates on the ground are just too weak to even take advantage of this possible "Priyanka" wave.  I figure in an ideal scenario the INC has around 8 candidates that have a show at winning.  My model have them a 2 (the two Gandhis) but based on exit polls I might have to adjust that up somewhat.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 14, 2019, 02:33:20 pm
How was the election looking at this point in 2004


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 14, 2019, 06:05:08 pm
In positive news for BJP, CSDS, based on its polling (but not exit polls) seems to be seeing a big BJP victory overall.  It has INC at 75-80 which should imply that BJP should be at 235-240 which would give NDA a solid majority.  CSDS also expects a BJP surge in WB where now it expects BJP to win 17 out of 42 seats.  My model has  BJP at 13 out of 42 in WB which seems like the most pro-BJP projection out there until now.

So it seems the various projections are becoming bimodal: Either it has NDA with a solid majority of at least 280 or it has NDA at below 240 where it would begin to struggle to form a government.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 14, 2019, 06:31:30 pm
Modi gave an on the fly interview a couple of days ago and said some cryptic things that is creating a lot of discussion and debate.

It seems Modi indicated that he choose the date for the retaliatory Balakot air strikes in Pakistan a couple of month back based on the fact that it was cloudy day and that as a result Indian plans can evade Pakistani radar. 

https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/radar-specialists-junk-modi-s-cloud-theory/cid/1690458


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 14, 2019, 06:47:38 pm
How was the election looking at this point in 2004

In 2004 exit polls were allowed to be announce with each round.  In the early phases the exit poll projection had NDA around 270 (very close to majority) UPA 170.  In the later phases which would be about where we are now the exit polls showed an average roughly around 260 for NDA and UPA of around 180.   So the momentum was slowly shifting away from NDA.  In the end it was UPA 218 NDA 181.  It seems the exit polls did pickup these NDA losses but the swing away from the NDA was so dramatic from what the polling showed at the beginning of the campaign season (NDA at 300+) that all the pollsters hedged themselves and herded. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 14, 2019, 06:50:07 pm
How was the election looking at this point in 2004

In 2004 exit polls were allowed to be announce with each round.  In the early phases the exit poll projection had NDA around 270 (very close to majority) UPA 170.  In the later phases which would be about where we are now the exit polls showed an average roughly around 260 for NDA and UPA of around 180.   So the momentum was slowly shifting away from NDA.  In the end it was UPA 218 NDA 181.  It seems the exit polls did pickup these NDA losses but the swing away from the NDA was so dramatic from what the polling showed at the beginning of the campaign season (NDA at 300+) that all the pollsters hedged themselves and herded. 

So India 2004 was basically like UK 2017, just that the Tories lead at the beginning of the campaign was larger


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 14, 2019, 08:54:06 pm

In 2004 exit polls were allowed to be announce with each round.  In the early phases the exit poll projection had NDA around 270 (very close to majority) UPA 170.  In the later phases which would be about where we are now the exit polls showed an average roughly around 260 for NDA and UPA of around 180.   So the momentum was slowly shifting away from NDA.  In the end it was UPA 218 NDA 181.  It seems the exit polls did pickup these NDA losses but the swing away from the NDA was so dramatic from what the polling showed at the beginning of the campaign season (NDA at 300+) that all the pollsters hedged themselves and herded. 

So India 2004 was basically like UK 2017, just that the Tories lead at the beginning of the campaign was larger

Not 100% true.  I think the 2017 UK CON poll lead was real but the campaign was a disaster.  I feel the NDA poll lead in 2004 was a mirage.  Polls showing NDA way head was more about Vajpayee being far more popular than INC leader Sonia Gandhi.  As the election got on the way, anti-incumbency against the local state governments and MPs as well as local factors did in the BJP.  2004 was the ultimate election that was NOT a national election but a confederation of a bunch of state elections put together.    Even back in March 2004 when all polls still had large NDA leads I saw that a NDA landslide win was not going to take place and that UPA could win

All my Indian friends here in NYC, regardless of political loyalties, think that BJP will sweep the polls.  Many think that BJP will get a majority on their own, something I think is just not possible.  BJP at best might get to 200 but no more.   I guess my friends have been taken in by the "India Shineing" campaign.  I am sure that INC + allies will not get a majority but do not rule out a minority INC+allies government supported by the Left Front after the 2004 elections.

If you look at 2004 and go state by state one can see that it was a perfect storm of a series of local factors including changes in alliance structure  that did in NDA which Vajpayee's popularity was not enough to overcome despite the fact that BJP did well in states where it just won assembly elections in 2003

AP: TDP-BJP crushed by an anti-incumbent wave against the TDP-BJP state government
Assam: Breakup of BJP-AGP alliance lead to INC victory
Bihar: LJP defection from BJP-JD(U) to RJD-INC led to defeat of BJP-JD(U)
Chhattisgarh: BJP sweep which replicated the just concluded 2003 assembly election
Gujarat: Tribals and Dalits that participated in the 2002 anti-Muslim riots and assumed they will be given a share of power under CM Modi found otherwise and swung to INC leading to a surprise draw
Haryana: Breakup of BJP-INLD alliance lead to INC victory
HP: BJP ally and INC spliter HVC merger back into INC lead to INC victory
Jharkhand: INC-JMM-RJD alliance defeat BJP that also lost JD(U) as an ally
Karnataka: BJP victory based on anti-incumbent wave against the INC state government
Kerala: INC destroyed by Left Front based on anti-incumbent wave against the INC state government
MP: BJP sweep which replicated the just concluded 2003 assembly election
Maharashtra: INC-NCP alliance was formed which was able to fight BJP-SHS to a draw
Orissa: BJD-BJP victory due to popularity of the BJD-BJP state goverment
Punjab: SAD-BJP defeat INC based on anti-incumbent wave against the INC state government
Rajasthan: BJP sweep which replicated the just concluded 2003 assembly election
TN: Massive defeat of AIADMK-BJP based on anti-incumbent wave against the AIADMK state government
UP: BJP lost part of OBC base to SP due to internal splits within the BJP between the Upper Caste leaders and BJP OBC leader Kalyan Singh create a victory for SP while BSP and INC held on to their base
Uttarakhand: BJP victory based on anti-incumbent wave against the INC state government
WB: AITC-BJP defeated by Left Front due to internal civil war within AITC with INC also doing well in Northern WB.

All these results could have been predicted based on the popularity (some based on the honeymoon period) of the state government, changes in alliance patterns and any local party splits.   All these element where there before the campaign started.  The campaign did not meaningfully changes these factors unlike the 2017 UK election.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 14, 2019, 09:18:06 pm
Trivedi Centre for Political Data did an analysis of social backgrounds of BJP-AD(S) and SP-BSP-RLD candidates.  They came up with

                      BJP-AD(S)     SP-BSP-RLD
Muslims                  0                  10
Yadavs                   1                  12
Jatav                     3                  10
Non-Yadav OBC     25                  21
Upper Caste          36                 18
Non-Jatav Dalit      14                  7

BJP-AD(S) seems to have accepted that the entire Muslim-Yadav-Jatav vote will vote against them and just hope they are split between SP-BSP-RLD.  BJP-AD(S) needs to nominated a bunch of Upper Caste candidates lest they defect to INC.  SP-BSP-RLD seems to have only invested less than half of their candidates to their core social base ( Muslim-Yadav-Jatav) and is striking out to battle BJP-AD(S) in Non-Yadav OBCs.  SP-BSL-RLD does seem to feel that they will not gain that much with Non-Jatav Dalit so did not nominate that much of them and must be hoping that a lot of Non-Jatav Dalit defect from BJP to INC.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 15, 2019, 08:47:59 am
ABP reports a "leaked" BJP exit poll which I mostly read as hack-like number.  It projects BJP to win overall 279-308 seats by itself.  By state

U.P.; 61-75  (!!!!)
Bihar; 17 (this is not totally absurd if it ends up being a very good election for NDA)
Jhar; 6
Bengal; 13-23 (I think this is high but in a massive anti-ATIC consolidation this could take place)
MAHA; 22 (not totally absurd as in a NDA wave election this could take place)
M.P.; 24
CG; 6
Raj; 24
Guj; 24
Har; 9
PUN; 3 (hard to see how this can be)
UK; 5
J&k; 2
HP; 4
Del; 7
NE; 17
Karnatak; 20 (I guess if INC JD(S) alliance completely collapse on the ground and defect to BJP)
Orissa; 8-13 (I actually agree with this one)
AP; 2 (completely absurd)
TN; 2
Kerala; 1
Goa; 2
Total= 279-308

One signal from this is that BJP does seem to agree that they will do not so hot in Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh which means BJP also felt they lost some tribal support.  Most of these numbers are plausible in a very pro-NDA election with some absurd results (UP AP).  What is interesting is a lot of pro-INC hack projection are also fairly conservative on how INC did in Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.  So it seem both sides are not certain if they carried the tribal vote.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 15, 2019, 10:33:15 am
MP's Indore betting markets report that after the 6th phase of voting the expected seat share of BJP stands at 220 and INC at around 100 which sounds suspiciously like what my current model has

https://www.latestly.com/india/politics/lok-sabha-election-result-2019-predictions-by-satta-bazar-matka-players-reduce-bjps-number-to-220-congress-tottering-at-100-844424.html


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 15, 2019, 11:47:51 am
For WB, for the first time ever in India elections, ECI had to cut short campaigning period by  1 day due to escalating political violence between BJP and AITC cadres.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections-2019/west-bengal/news/ec-acts-against-poll-violence-in-west-bengal-cuts-short-campaigning-for-final-phase/articleshow/69346105.cms

I suspect AITC knows it is losing ground so it is increasing is aggression on BJP rallies which lead to conflict.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 15, 2019, 11:51:39 am
At the start of this thing, you said that there was something around a 90% chance of BJP govt, either with Modi or another cabinet minister. In your mind, has that bell curve of outcomes shifted in favor of the INC given various developments and the expected UP BJP losses, and if so, by how much?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 15, 2019, 03:51:46 pm
Trivedi Centre for Political Data analysis of UP

Has base case of SP-BSP-RLD 48 NDA 29 INC 2 but having NDA seats ranging from 13 to 41. 
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 15, 2019, 07:06:15 pm
Senior journalist Rajdeep Sardesai who claimed to not have looked at any exit polls came out with his predictions which seems to be a clone of my current projection

https://www.dailyo.in/politics/narendra-modi-manmohan-singh-lok-sabha-elections-2019-mission-272-with-rajdeep-sardesai-exit-polls-predictions-lok-sabha-election-results/video/1/30705.html

He makes ten predictions which matches my current projections to the letter

1) BJP largest party by far but without majority - I have BJP 210 INC 99
2) NDA withing striking distance of majority (most likely short up to around 20-25 seats) - I have NDA plus pro-NDA parties at 256 - short of majority by 16 seats
3) NDA can rope in BJD and YSRCP to get to majority - I have YSRCP at 20 and BJD at 8 which can help create a NDA majority
4) INC will fall just short of 100 mark - I have INC at 99
5) Southern regional parties not in a position to dictate terms to Modi - This is really clone of 2) since NDA that close to majority should give fair amount of leverage
6) President of India will invite Modi to form the government - Again this is sort of related to 2) since NDA plus pro-NDA parties at 256 would mean that Modi should be given the first shot
7) BJP big gains are in the East (WB and Odisha) - For WB I have BJP going from 2 to 13 and for Odisha I have BJP going from 1 to 13.
8 ) BJP only double digit seat loss will be in UP and perhaps MP - I have BJP losing 40 seats in UP and losing 8 in Bihar, 10 in MP, 8 in Rajasthan, 7 in Jharkhand, and 7 in Chhattisgarh as the larger losses
INC have no double digit seat gain except perhaps MP - I have INC gaining 10 seats in MP, 5 in Kerala, 8 in Rajasthan, 7 in Chhattisgarh as the larger gains.
9) North-South divide with UPA doing well in the South such as TN and Kerala - I have UPA winning 32 out of 39 in TN and 17 out of 20 in Kerala
10) X factor are UP and WB - NDA will under-perform these projections if the loses a lot of ground in UP and does not surge in WB and vice versa for NDA over-performance.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 15, 2019, 09:35:25 pm
At the start of this thing, you said that there was something around a 90% chance of BJP govt, either with Modi or another cabinet minister. In your mind, has that bell curve of outcomes shifted in favor of the INC given various developments and the expected UP BJP losses, and if so, by how much?

I think is has a bit but not much.  Most of the on the ground reports are from states where I always figured will have state level anti-incumbency that will act against BJP.  The fact that the on the ground reports are not in favor of BJP does not change my on calculations that much. 

Most people view this election in national terms, either there is a Modi wave or there is a silent resentment of local BJP and/or Modi.  These sort of approaches are more likely to generate a projection that gives a solid majority for NDA or have NDA fall short of being able to form government.  I tend to look at the election as a confederation of state level elections where the BJP are doing well in some states but doing worse than expected in others. Such an approach tends to make the chance of a non-Modi BJP government more likely since it will generate projections somewhere in between those two poles. 

I am going to stick to my view until the exit polls comes out which I will use to detect trends at the state level and confirm or deny my framework of looking at this election as a confederation of a seris of state level elections.  In the meantime I would say right now it is 50% Modi 35% non-Modi BJP and 15% some compromise anti-BJP bloc led most likely by a regional party non-INC PM.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 16, 2019, 05:50:43 am
Modi said something interesting at a political rally at Chandauli: "Those with 8 seats, 10 seats, 20-22 seats, 30-35 seats are dreaming of becoming Prime Minister."

We can derive a lot of info from this.  First lets assume he is not talking about YSRCP TRS or BJD since they are all potential post-election allies.   If so we can sort of map the logical seat count to the various non-INC parties which would be

AITC  30-35 (Mamata Banerjee)
BSP 20-22 (Mayawati)
NCP 10 (Sharad Pawar)
TDP 8 (Chandrababu Naidu)

BSP at 20-22 most likely implies that SP would be the same which is 20-22 and RLD at 2.  NCP at 10 would imply that INC plus other UPA allies are also around 10.  If we assume INC is 2 in WB and UP, we can now construct Modi's inadvertent projection for key states are

UP
NDA               34
SP-BSP-RLD   44
INC                 2
(I have it at SP-BSP-RLD 45 NDA 33 INC 2 which is nearly identical)

WB
BJP               7
AITC            33
INC               2
(I have it at BJP 13 AITC 27 INC 2)

AP
YSRCP        17
TDP             8
(I have it at YSRCP 20 TDP 5)

Maharashtra
NDA          28
UPA          20
(I have it at NDA 33 UPA 15)

So Modi's implied projections  are more negative for BJP than those I have.  Of course I suspect he does not know any more than I do what the real results would be.  But assuming this was not an attempt to plant data to lower expectations we have insight what the BJP High Command is thinking, or at least what they feel is the worse case scenario for BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 16, 2019, 05:58:14 am
Chart on exit polling accuracy in state assembly elections in the last 5 years where most of them are off in terms of seat count although I guess a small majority were correct in terms of winners

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I noticed the same years ago ergo I invited my India election exit poll adjustment methdology

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 16, 2019, 10:22:19 am
India version of predictit Crowdwisdom

https://www.crowdwisdom.co.in/Allindia/Home?a=1

currently has the average projection at

NDA 280 (BJP 232)
UPA 153 (INC 103)

This means that UPA sweeps the South and does OK in the North while BJP smashes various regional parties in UP (SP BSP), WB (AITC), and Odisha(BJD).  This average projection views the election as a national election where voters are choosing a national bloc and PM that can effective rule India.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: ˘®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 17, 2019, 04:19:40 am
Is the AAP dead by the way? I liked them.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 17, 2019, 07:46:10 am

They mostly imploded.  In Punjab 2017 assembly election was their chance to capture power.  They blew themselves up by trying to get Sikh separatists Khalistan radical to clandestinely work for AAP. When it was revealed the moderate Sikh vote which had gone from SAD to AAP went back to SAD.  This year AAP in Punjab mostly split down the middle so with a rebel AAP party PEP running separately in an alliance with BSP and SAD splinter LIP. 

In Haryana AAP had a small but significant vote share in 2014 and this time will ally with INLD splinter JJP.  But with the Jat vote clearly consolidating around INC and the non-Jat vote consolidating around BJP I doubt AAP will get very far.

In Delhi AAP has show itself to be just another political party which lost it the middle class anti-politics vote.  AAP most likely will come third in Delhi behind BJP and INC.

In 2014 AAP won more than 20% of the vote in 17 seats, this time it will be 8 according to my model.  My model does not expect AAP to win any seats and only come in second in 3 seats (2 in Delhi and 1 in Punjab) whereas back in 2014 AAP won 4 seats and came in second in 9 more.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 17, 2019, 05:43:10 pm
Most likely pressured with Rahul Gandhi doing a bunch of impromptu interviews Modi held his first press conference every today.  Other than some opening statements, BJP President Amit Shah field all the questions and Modi did not speak a word.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-election-modi/at-his-first-news-conference-in-india-pm-modi-declines-questions-idUSKCN1SN22W

Most of the press conference looked like this where Amit Shah is answering questions with Modi looking on and his hand on his head
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Not clear what Modi is up to with this maneuver.  I think other than the most educated voters, the vast majority of voters I think do not care if he does interviews or press conferences. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 17, 2019, 05:50:06 pm
NDTV analysis of Bihar

Shows the vote base of the various blocs
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Shows the critical role of JD(U)
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BJP and JD(U) vote bases are complementary which make them effective allies if the relationship on the ground works
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Shows that RJD-INC needs a big swing to overcome BJP-JD(U) alliance
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Shows which communities are on which side and that the cost of RJD-INC not getting BSP on its side hurt their effort to get Jatav Dalits
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Title: Re: 2019 India LS; and various assembly elections
Post by: jaichind on May 17, 2019, 07:03:20 pm
Something stuck me about the Modi-Shah press conference which is the BJP version of "A picture is worth a thousand words"

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The 4 pictures in background are Modi and Shah on the left.   But on the right they had Syama Prasad Mukherjee and Deendayal Upadhyaya
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who were the founder of BJS (proto-BJP) and the chief ideologue of the BJS back in the 1960s respectively.

Note that BJP PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee and BJP DCM Lal Krishna Advani
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were not on in the background of the BJP Pantheon even though between the two they led the BJS and then BJP from 1968 to 2013.  The main reason is obvious.  Back in 2002 after the Gujarat riots Vajpayee wanted to remove Modi from the Gujarat CM position only to be stopped by Advani so Modi always resented Vajpayee.  Later in 2013 Modi had to shove Advani  aside to take over the BJP and have every since tried to sideline Advani.  Now Modi is trying gently push them out of BJP history.

A picture is worth a thousand words

I found this picture at the SP-BSP press conference a few days ago announcing formally the SP-BSP alliance quite interesting
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First on both sides there are larger than life pictures of the current leaders of SP(Akhilesh Yadav) and BSP(Mayawati).  It is sort of comical that at a press conference with both these two leaders you still need larger than life pictures of both of them in the same room.  What is also interesting are the picture at the Far Top Left and Far Top Right of the room.  On the BSP side is Dalit icon Ambedkar who really founded the pro-Dalit RPI and not BSP but BSP claims his legacy. On the SP side is old Socialist icon Charan Singh who founded BLD and is the mother party of SP.  Akhilesh Yadav's father and founder of SP Mulayam Singh Yadav was a key sidekick of Charan Singh.

What is important here is that it is Charan Singh that is shown and NOT SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav who has been overthrown by Akhilesh Yadav in 2017 and has been kicked upstairs by his soon.  Of course Mulayam Singh Yadav has came out opposing the SP-BSP alliance but does not seems to any political strength to do anything about it.  

In the same vein BSP founder Kanshi Ram who is Mayawati's mentor is nowhere to be seen.  Part of the reason is that Mayawati has most purged the BSP of Kanshi Ram supporters since Kanshi Ram was kicked upstairs by Mayawati in the late 1990s before passing away.

This picture shows the that how both leaders want to monopolize current and recent past history of their parties and would only acknowledge founding leaders who very distant and could not be a threat to their power within their parties.  


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 18, 2019, 07:16:55 am
Muslim votes shifted to Congress in Delhi at last moment: Arvind Kejriwal

https://indianexpress.com/elections/muslim-votes-shifted-to-cong-in-delhi-at-last-moment-says-kejriwal-5734465/

AAP CM Kejriwal indicated that Delhi Muslim vote shifted to INC last minute.  Looks like he is making excuses for a clear defeat in LS elections.  It is clear that AAP will not win any seats and most likely BJP will sweep 7-0 although INC might come close in a couple of seats.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 18, 2019, 08:20:28 am
Some contradictory projections coming out of UP.  One the one hand a key journalist at UP news is saying that SP-BSP-RLD will win 65 out of 80 seats.  The head of a state run university political think tank indicates that his projection for vote share are BJP 45% SP-BSP-RLD 35% which implies a good part of the anti-BJP vote went to INC who failed to cut into the BJP vote.  This would mean a BJP seat share of at least 55 out of 80.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 18, 2019, 10:04:33 am
Left-Progressive Newsclick doubles down on meltdown of NDA narrative in their final projection (542 seats since Vellore election in TN have been delayed)

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Comments:
1) They "fixed" some of their bugs from their previous projection to have UPA sweep Jharkhand which would make sense if it is a NDA meltdown
2) They have not fixed their Nagaland bug which I emailed them about where they still have it as "Other" (NPF) versus NPF splinter and BJP ally NDPP or INC since NPF dropped out to support INC
3) The only one exception of this NDA meltdown narrative is actually TN where they have NDA winning 10 seats out of 38.  If there was a NDA meltdown like they suggest then NDA would be in the 0-3 range in TN.
4) They have AAP getting 2 in Punjab and 3 in Delhi both which are pretty much impossible
5) They have Left front at 14 Kerala which also now seems very difficult
6) Overall every state except for TN they pretty much have the NDA worse caste scenario 

At least you got to give them credit to put this in writing.  In the 1% chance that NDA does completely fall apart they would look like prophets.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 18, 2019, 06:50:35 pm
Updated projection from me now that we are about to have the last phase of voting plus exit polls.
 Mostly the same as before with some minor adjustments.  I will re-calibrate after exit polls come out.

My basic approach is to view the election as a confederation of state elections.  The main driver being state level anti-incumbency.   If a state just held an assembly election then I tend to think polls underestimate the incumbent party,  if the state held assembly elections 1-2 years ago then I think polls tend to be par.  If the state had assembly elections 4-5 years ago then I tend to think polll overestimate the incumbent party.  

Based on that principle I created separate models every state to generate swings and also take into account key changes in candidates and alliance dynamics.   I did not take into account rebels yet so the vote share calculations are mostly overestimating the dominate parties.

J&K: I decided to break up my projection by each region (Kashmir, Ladakh, Jammu)

Kashmir:
Very low turnout so who knows what will take place.  But generally slight edge for JKN

2019
NDA:       0 BJP          2.1%
UPA:        0 INC         4.1% (tactically alliance with JKN)
Others     2 JKN        41.5% (tactical alliance with INC)
               1 PDP       30.4%
               0 JPC        14.9% (Separatist)

2014
NDA:      0 (0 BJP)                   1.4%
UPA:       0 (0 JKN)                34.9%
Others:   3 PDP                     46.9%
              0 JPC                       6.3%


Ladakh:
4 way battle with INC winning as it gains Buddhist vote from BJP

NDA:       0 BJP          23.6%
UPA:        1 INC         33.2%  
Others     0 ISK          28.1% (backed by JKN and PDP)  
               0 INC rebel  13.1%

2014
NDA:      1 (1 BJP)                 26.6%
UPA:       0 (0 INC)                22.6%
Others:   0 ISK                      24,2%
              0 INC rebel              26.6%


Jammu:
Hindu consolidation should see BJP through

2019
NDA:       2 BJP        46.3%
UPA:        0 INC       41.3% (backed by JKN and PDP)
Others     0 BJP rebel  5.0%
 
2014
NDA:      2 (2 BJP)                 48.6%
UPA:       0 (0 INC)                34.6%
              0 PDP                      8.7%


HP:
Mostly replicates 2017 assembly elections, high number of Upper Caste voters gives BJP a sweep.

2019
NDA: 4 BJP     53.7%
UPA: 0 INC     43.4%

2014
NDA: 4 BJP      53.9%
UPA: 0 INC      41.1%


Haryana:
INLD split with splinter JPP helps both BJP and INC.  BJP splinter LSP does not make that much of an impact other than in the seat of the LSP leader.

2019
NDA:      6 BJP              38.7%
UPA:      4 INC              30.9%
Others:  0  BSP-LSP        7.2%
             0 INLD              6.2%
             0 JJP-AAP        14.2%

2014:
NDA:     7 (7 BJP 0 HJC)        40.9%
UPA:     1 INC                       23.0%
Others: 2 INLD                     24.4%
            0 BSP                        4.6%
            0 AAP                        4.3%


Punjab:
AAP has lost a lot of ground since 2017 assembly elections.  They could have gone to SAD to hurt INC.  But most of that support seems to gone to AAP splinter PEP which split the anti-INC vote to help INC.

2019
NDA:     4 (4 SAD, 0 BJP)     34.5%
UPA:     9 INC                     37.5%
Others: 0 BSP-PEP-LIF         12.0%
            0 AAP                     11.9%

2014:
NDA:     6 (4 SAD, 2 BJP)  35.2%
UPA:     3 INC                  33.2%
Others: 4 AAP                  24.5%
            0 BSP                   1.9%


Delhi
AAP landslide victory of 2015 assembly elections is now a distant memory with AAP administration losing a lot of credibility.    AAP loses support  back to INC which means BJP sweeps the polls again

2019
NDA:    7 BJP     39.1%
UPA:     0 INC    30.7%
Others: 0 AAP    26.3%

2014:
NDA:    7 BJP   46.6%
UPA:     0 INC  15.2%
Others: 0 AAP  33.1%


Uttarakhand
Results will mostly mimic 2017 assembly election with BJP losing some ground due to anti-incumbency which is partly mitigated by Modi's popularity in the Hindu heartland  

2019
NDA:     4 BJP           47.4%
UPA:     1 INC           43.8%
Others  0 BSP             5.5%

2014:
NDA:    5 BJP    55.9%
UPA:     0 INC    34.4%
Others: 0 BSP     4.8%


UP:
SP-BSP-RLD Grand Alliance consolidates backward vote to beat back BJP.  INC resurgence in some seats and SP splinter PSP cuts into Grand Alliance votes and prevents even greater BJP losses.

2019
NDA:    33 (31 BJP 2 AD(S))                            40.1%
UPA:      2 INC-JAP (2 INC)                              11.1%
Others: 45 SP-BSP-RLD(24 SP 19 BSP 2 RLD )  41.8%
             0 PSP-PECP                                        1.9%

2014
NDA:    73 (71 BJP 2 AD)   43.6%
UPA:       2 INC                   8.5%
Others:   5 SP                   22.3%
              0 BSP                 19.8%


Bihar:
Nitish Kumar's popularity pulls NDA ahead despite anti-incumbency.  CPI(ML) has tactical alliance with UPA.
 
2019
NDA:   28 (14 BJP 9 JD(U) 5 LJP)                      47.6%
UPA:    12 (5 RJD 4 INC 2 RLSP 1 HAM 0 VIP)    40.0%
Others   0 CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI                               3.2%

2014
NDA:   31 (22 BJP 6 LJP 3 RLSP)         39.5%
UPA:     7 (4 RJD 2 INC 1 NCP)           30.3%
Others: 2 JD(U)-CPI (2 JD(U) 0 CPI)   17.2%


MP
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory but still INC makes gains in tribal and urban areas
 
2019
NDA:  17 BJP              47.1%
UPA:   12 INC             45.0%
Others 0 SP-BSP-GGP   4.6%

2014
NDA:  27 BJP     54.8%
UPA:    2 INC     35.4%


Rajasthan
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory

2019
NDA: 18 BJP (17 BJP 1 RLP)     50.7%
UPA:   7 INC                           44.0%

2014
NDA: 25 BJP    55.6%
UPA:   0 INC    30.7%


Chhattisgarh
Tribal votes seems to be shifting away from BJP which adds to the INC edge after the 2018 assembly election victory which will contain the Modi wave in Upper Caste areas.

2019
NDA:    3 BJP          42.3%
UPA:     8 INC         46.9%
Others: 0 BSP-JCC    5.4%

2014
NDA:  10 BJP    49.7%
UPA:    1 INC    39.1%


Jharkhand
INC-JMM-JVM  alliance will create a base too large for BJP to beat even with AJSU alliance, especially given anti-incumbency building up.  In the end RJD had a tactical alliance with UPA

2019
NDA:    5 (5 BJP 0 AJSU)                      41.2%
UPA:     8 (4 JMM 2 INC 2 JVM )            43.8%
Others: 1 RJD                                       4.3%
            0 CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI                   3.1%

2014
NDA:  12 BJP                            40.7%                
UPA:    2 (2 JMM 0 INC 0 RJD)    24.6%
Others:0 JVM                            12.3%
           0 AJSU                            3.8%


Gujarat
INC make s a slight comeback but the Modi wave is still powerful in his home state.

2019
NDA:  21 BJP        52.6%
UPA:    5 INC        42.3%

2014
NDA:  26 BJP                       60.1%
UPA:    0 (0 INC 0 NCP)        34.4%


Maharashtra
BJP got SHS to come aboard to an alliance which might not work on the ground.  INC and NCP deeply divided but does have de facto NMS support.  Dalit-Muslim BVA-AIMIM will split the INC-NCP vote and help give NDA a partial victory despite anti-incumbency.

2019
NDA:       33 (19 BJP 14 SHS)                             47.2%
UPA:        15 (5 INC 8 NCP 1 SWP 1 BVA 0 YSP)   42.3%
Others:     0 VBA-AIMIM                                       4.0%

2014
NDA:    42 (23 BJP 18 SHS 1 SWP)         51.6%
UPA:      6 (2 INC 4 NCP)                       35.0%
Others:  0 NMS                                       1.5%


Goa
BJP government in turmoil should give INC a chance

2019
NDA:  1 BJP     50.0%
UPA:   1 INC    43.7%

2014
NDA: 2 BJP    54.1%
UPA:  0 INC   37.0%


WB:
Left Front implosion and lack of INC-Left Front tactical alliance will doom Left Front.  BJP surges as it captures the anti-incumbency vote.

2019
NDA:      13 BJP             35.6%
UPA:         2 INC              7.5%
Others:   27 AITC           40.5%
               0  Left Front    13.1%

2014
NDA:      2 BJP           17.0%
UPA        4 INC            9.7%
Others: 34 AITC         39.8%
             2 Left Front   30.1%


Orissa:
INC imploding and anti-incumbency votes going to BJP leads to a shock BJP narrow victory here.  

2019
NDA:    13 BJP                         40.2%
UPA:      0 INC-JMM-CPI-CPM    20.2%
Others:  8 BJD                         36.6%

2014
NDA:     1 BJP     21.9%
UPA       0 INC    26.4%
Others: 20 BJD   44.8%


Karnataka
INC-JD(S) alliance will not work well on the ground letting BJP fight INC-JD(S) to a tie.

2019
NDA:        15 (14 BJP 0 BJP Ind)  47.5%
UPA:        13 (9 INC 4 JD(S))       45.7%
Otherss:     0 UPP                        3.0%

2014
NDA:   17 BJP      43.4%
UPA:     9 INC      41.2%
Others: 2 JD(S)   11.2%


AP
5 way battle and JSP splitting the anti-incumbency vote  allows TDP to avoid a total wipe-out. YSRCP most likely will back BJP post-election.  YSRCP alliance with TRS also drives some anti-Telagana votes to TDP.

2019
NDA:       0 BJP                       5.0%
UPA:        0 INC                      4.2%
Others:  20 YSRCP                 41.0%
              5 TDP                     35.3%
              0 JSP-BSP               10.2% (tactical alliance with Left)
              0 CPI-CPM-CPM(ML)   2.2% (tactical alliance with JSP-BSP)

2014
NDA:    17 (15 TDP 2 BJP)    48.0%
UPA:       0 INC                     2.9%
Others:   8 YSRCP                45.7%


Telangana
TRS to repeat the 2018 assembly election landslide.  CPI TDP are backing to INC to no avail as AIMIM has a tactical alliance with TRS.  YSRCP pretty much pulled out of the state to back TRS.

2019
NDA:      0 BJP                   13.7%
UPA:       0 INC                  31.6%
Others: 16 TRS                  45.4%
              1 AIMIM                2.7%
              0 JSP-BSP             3.0% (tactical alliance with CPI-CPM)
              0 CPI-CPM            1.0% (tactical alliance with JSP-BSP)

2014
NDA:      2 (1 BJP 1 TDP)     22.8%
UPA:      2 INC                    25.7%
Others: 11 TRS                   34.9%
             1 YSRCP                 4.5%
             1 AIMIM                 3.5%


TN
AIADMK split into splinter AMMK and anti-incumbency will defeat NDA despite the size of the alliance.  The NDA defeat could end up being worse than this.   NMN eats into the UPA vote or else it will be a massive UPA landslide.

Note Vellore election was called off but my projection will still be based on all 39 seats.

2019
NDA:      7 (3 AIADMK 2 BJP 1 PMK 1 DMDK 0 PT 0 TMC 1 PNK)         35.7%
UPA      32 (18 DMK 8 INC 2 VCK 2 CPI 2 CPM 0 MUL 1 IJK 0 KMDK )  43.8%
Others:  0 AMMK-SDPI                                                                    11.8%
             0 NMN                                                                                5.6%
              
2014
NDA:       2 (1 PMK 1 BJP 0 DMDK 0 MDMK)     18.7%
UPA:       0 INC                                                4.4%
Others:  39 AIADMK                                       44.9%
              0 DMK                                             27.2%


Kerala
Sabarimala temple issue will crush Left Front and lead to a large scale defection of Left Front vote to BJP who will finally win a seat in Kerala.  This and anti-incumbency will lead to a UPA landslide.  Rahul Gandhi running in Kerala is part of the UPA moving in for the kill.
 
2019
NDA:       1 (1 BJP 0 BDJS 0 KEC(T))              21.9%
UPA:      17 (13 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)  41.7%
Others:   2  Left Front                                   33.3%

2014
NDA:     0 BJP                                              10.9%
UPA:    12 (8 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)      42.5%
Others:  8 Left Front                                    41.6%


Assam
NDA was about to sweep the state until the new citizenship bill.  Now it is a real fight with anti-incumbency building up.  AIUDF only running in 3 seats helps INC partly but also drives Hindu votes away from INC to NDA.

2019
NDA:       7 (6 BJP 1 BPF 0 AGP)     43.3%
UPA:        4 INC                            38.4%
Others:    3 AIUDF                         11.0%

2014
NDA:      7 BJP                    38.7%
UPA:       3 (3 INC 0 BPF)     31.5%
Others:   3 AIUDF                15.0%
              1 ex-ULFA               4.2%
              0 AGP                     3.9%


6 Federal districts
I expect here to be a small swing away from NDA to UPA with INC gaining a seat

2019
NDA:     4 (4 BJP 0 AINRC)
UPA:     2 (1 INC 1 NCP)

2014
NDA:      5 (4 BJP 1 AINRC)
UPA:     1 (0 INC 1 NCP)


11 Northeast seats
Before the new citizenship bill NDA was going to sweep.  Now several pro-BJP parties are running separately and away from BJP.  Still NDA plus pro-NDA parties will have the edge.  

2019
NDA:     6 (5 BJP 1 NDPP 1)
UPA:      1 INC
Others:  0 Left Front
             4 pro-NDA (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 UDP 1 MNF)

2014
NDA:      4 (1 BJP 1 NPF 1 NPP 1 SDF)
UPA:      5 INC
Others:  2 Left Front


The total result of all this are

NDA: 252 (210 BJP)  39.3% (31.8% BJP)
UPA   154 (99 INC)   31.3% (23.1% INC)

Back in 2014 it was

NDA:  336 (282 BJP)  38.5% (31.1% BJP)
UPA:     59 ( 44 INC)  23.1% (19.3% INC)

So the BJP vote share are mostly similar to 2014 but INC saw a moderate increase.

In 2019
BJP will come in first place in 210 seats and second place 161 seats making its "reach" 371
INC will come in first place in 99 seats and second place 165 seats making its "reach" 264

In 2014
BJP come in first place in 282 seats and second place 54  seats making its "reach" 336
INC will come in first place in 44 seats and second place 224 seats making its "reach" 268

So INC's "reach" stayed around the same (it became more relevant in TN but lost relevance in WB, Odisha and the Northesst) and BJP's "reach" increased  by 40 some seats (mostly in WB, Odisha and the Northeast)

Rest of the seats are
Pro-NDA            4 (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 UDP 1 MNF)
Pro-UPA             7 (5 TDP 2 JKN)
Federal Front     44 (20 YSRCP 16 TRS 8 BJD)
Grand Alliance   72 (27 AITC 24 SP 19 BSP 2 RLD)
Left                   5 (2 Left Front 2 CPI 1 CPM) [2 CPI 1 CPM from alliance with UPA in TN)
Anti-NDA           5 (3 AIUDF 1 AIMIM 1 PDP)


NDA should be able to form a government with pro-NDA parties and some Federal Front party support.  YSRCP will for sure back NDA as most likely will TRS.  BJD might stay away to deal with its new rival the BJP in Odisha.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 07:02:35 am
Most media coverage are hinting that exit polls will show that NDA/BJP/Modi will come back to power although no sense by what margin.  I guess we will find out in a a hour or two.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 07:29:44 am
Former leading psephologist and now leader of AAP splinter Swaraj India and noted opponent of Modi and BJP seems to indicate that most likely the result will be around 260-320 for NDA with a BJP/Modi government.

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 07:32:11 am
Voting ends.  Exit polls to officially come out in 30 min.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 07:34:41 am
Unofficial sources says C-Voter exit polls has NDA at 287 and BJP at 236.  Unofficial  Jan Ki Baat exit poll has it at NDA 295-315.  If true this would sort of make sense as Jan Ki Baat has a historical BJP lean.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 07:36:40 am
Odisha local channel Kalinga TV shows BJD landslide victory of BJD 20 BJP 1.  Big disappointment to BJP if true.

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 07:44:29 am
Local AP Telegu channel TV9 CPS has YSRCP well ahead in their exit poll

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 19, 2019, 07:52:52 am
Odisha local channel Kalinga TV shows BJD landslide victory of BJD 20 BJP 1.  Big disappointment to BJP if true.

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You sure that isn't the 2015 graphic? Because if BJP is failing in Odisha, and the block is losing seats in AP, it's hard to square the high NDA+ number. Maybe what it implies is a failure of BSP? Or the INC failing outside of the south?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 07:54:00 am
India version of predictit Crowdwisdom

https://www.crowdwisdom.co.in/Allindia/Home?a=1

currently has the average projection at

NDA 280 (BJP 232)
UPA 153 (INC 103)

This means that UPA sweeps the South and does OK in the North while BJP smashes various regional parties in UP (SP BSP), WB (AITC), and Odisha(BJD).  This average projection views the election as a national election where voters are choosing a national bloc and PM that can effective rule India.

Final crowdwisdom projection is

           Seats             Vote share
NDA 275 (BJP 229)       42% (BJP 34%)
UPA  154 (INC 104)      34% (INC 25%)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 07:55:21 am
The panel of Republic TV to discuss the C-Voter and Jan Ki Baat exit polls looks like the Last Supper
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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 07:59:14 am
Odisha local channel Kalinga TV shows BJD landslide victory of BJD 20 BJP 1.  Big disappointment to BJP if true.

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You sure that isn't the 2015 graphic? Because if BJP is failing in Odisha, and the block is losing seats in AP, it's hard to square the high NDA+ number. Maybe what it implies is a failure of BSP? Or the INC failing outside of the south?

I agree.  On the other hand Kalinga TV put this up as their projection.  I am pretty sure BJP will do better than this.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:03:17 am
Cvoter exit poll

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:03:53 am
Times Now exit poll

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:05:31 am
NewsX exit poll

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:07:59 am
Regional breakdowns which I will study later seems to indicate BJP did lose ground in UP but its vote held up in other BJP strongholds like Gujarat and MP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:10:07 am
VDP has massive landslide for NDA/BJP

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But with vote share that seems not to indicate a NDA/BJP landslide
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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:12:20 am
Jan Ki Baat exit poll

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:13:03 am
These exit polls really look like pre-election polls (except for VDP) done in April before the election started.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:15:02 am
News Nation seat share projection

NDA: 286 | UPA: 122 | Others: 134 (Total: 542)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:23:17 am
Poll of polls

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:26:17 am
India Today EXIT POLL predicts
NDA-298
UPA -118
OTH 126

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:27:54 am
TIMES NOW-VMR 2019 Exit Poll National (Overall) Tally:

BJP+ (NDA): 306
Cong+ (UPA): 132
Others: 104

Vote Share:

BJP+ (NDA): 41.1%
Cong+ (UPA): 31.7%
Others: 27.2%

It is interesting that their NDA vs UPA vote share is similar to my but have massively different seat implications than my projection


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:30:48 am
Anthro AI doubles down in BJP defeat in UP

https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/uttar-pradesh-2019-projection-seven-phases-144-million-voters-key-issues-one-ballot/

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We believe the BSP + SP + RLD will win 54 seats in Uttar Pradesh. We may be wrong about 8 seats. The BSP will win 27. The SP will win 22. The RLD will win 2. We have a few more weak projections for the BSP than for the SP.
We believe the BJP will win 21 seats. This may go up by 9 seats we have currently projected for other parties.
We believe the INC will win 4 seats.
We believe the PSP(L) will win 1 seat.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:32:30 am
VDP doubles down in BJP landslide victory in UP

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:35:06 am
Chart of exit polls so far .. I think NewsX might be a typo

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:37:51 am
History of exit polls in LS elections

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:39:49 am
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Sudarshan - NDA 313 UPA 121 OTH 109
Suvarna  NDA 295-315 UPA 122-125 OTH 125-102 (??? typo???)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:43:05 am
ABP Nielson
NDA 267 (BJP 218)
UPA 127 (Congress 81)
Others 148


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 08:51:03 am
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Zee news NDA  292 UPA 136 OTH 114


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 09:09:54 am
Looks like the INC-JD(S) alliance in Karnataka was a total disaster with various exit polls having BJP perhaps above 20 which seems above BJP's hope of 17.  This should be a cautionary tale about all that talk about how INC "should" have formed an alliance with AAP in Delhi. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 09:11:32 am
NDVT poll of polls so far

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: urutzizu on May 19, 2019, 09:27:40 am
NDA mostly seems to be in line with expectations where third parties are strong, but BJP overperforming massively where there is no third party and in the Hindi-Hindu belt.
Esp. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka and MP seem way off when considering the assembly elections, unless there was significant vote spitting (voting INC regionally and BJP nationally).


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 19, 2019, 09:36:16 am
I wouldn't day the Hindi belt. If we take the poll of polls as the best one here (since these exits have more MOE then in other countries do to the unique voting system) then it looks like the Tribal vote which both parties were uncertain about went BJP. Everything else seems to line up with the pre-election polls, maybe favoring BJP a tiny bit.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 09:57:56 am
My 8 year old son who is taking his final exams right now for Chinese school would be disappointed with these exit polls.  He liked Rahul Gandhi a lot more than Modi and was really rooting for UPA.  I told him, yeah, I do not like Modi nor Rahul Gandhi but it seems  Modi will win and the only questions is by how much.  He was too busy studying for his finals this morning to look at these exit polls.  After he is done he will find out that it is a Modi victory and most likely a significant one.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 10:03:30 am
If these regional breakdown of the exit polls are right then Modi should be given a lot of credit to pulling BJP across the finishing line.  In a lot of core Hindi states the trend of state anti-incumbency cycle was against BJP but it seems the Modi factor pulled BJP through.   In other areas the result seems to be more inline with pre-election trends with a slight pro-NDA tilt.  The BJP surge in WB and Odisha shows that Modi has turned the BJP from a Hindu Hindi party to a Hindu Indo-Aryan party.  If so then we are potentially in another era where the BJP becomes the natural party of governance and the INC route to power again is much more difficult. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 10:09:35 am
News18 exit poll has NDA 336 UPA 82 OTH 127
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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 10:39:08 am
Current NDTV poll of polls

Total: NDA 298 UPA 124 OTH 120 (out of 542)

AP: YSRCP 15 TDP 10
Assam: NDA 9 INC 3 OTH 2 (I assume AIUDF)
Bihar: NDA 32 UPA 8
Chhattisgarh: BJP 6 INC 5
Delhi: BJP 6 INC 1
Gujarat: BJP 23 INC 3
Haryana: BJP 8 INC 2
Jharkhand: NDA 9 UPA 5
MP: BJP 24 INC 5
Maharastra: NDA 36 UPA 11 OTH 1 (I assume AIMIM)
Odisha: BJP 11 BJD 10
Rajasthan: BJP 22 INC 3
TN: UPA 27 NDA 10 OTH 1 (I assume AMMK)
UP: NDA 50 SP-BSP-RLD 28 INC 2
Karnataka: NDA 19 UPA 9
Kerala: UPA 14 Left 4 BJP 1 (does not add up to 20)
Punjab: INC 8 NDA 4 AAP 1
Telengana: TRS 12 INC 1 BJP 1 (does not add up to 17, I assume AIMIM 1)
WB: AITC 26 BJP 14 INC 2


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 10:52:14 am
Some of the later exit polls are showing massive NDA landslides

India Today-My Axis has NDA 339-365 UPA 77-108  OTH 69-95
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Chanakya-News24 has NDA 350 UPA 95 OTH 97
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So that makes 4 exit polls with NDA way above 300 (other two are VDP and News18).


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 10:55:13 am
ABP Nielson
NDA 267 (BJP 218)
UPA 127 (Congress 81)
Others 148


ABP Nielson adjusted their exit poll to

NDA 277 UPA 130 OTH 135
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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 11:09:49 am
My own average of all exit polls has it at NDA 306 UPA 120.  If we take out News24-Today's Chanakya and VDP both of whom have historical pro-BJP biases, then the average is NDA 300 UPA 123.  If so then the trend is clear that it would be a significant NDA victory.

My gut feeling is still that the real results will be in the lower range of the exit polls for NDA.  I have to dig into state by state projections and vote share to be sure  though.  Couple of reasons

1) It seems vote share wise everyone seem to agree that the NDA vote share lead over UPA are in the 6%-11% range.  My own model seem to show that a vote share lead for NDA of 9% does not lead to a massive majority.
2) I suspect there are still a bunch of pro-incumbent biases in these exit polls.  These biases underestimated BJP in 2014 and most likely overestimate BJP in 2019

Still one way ore another it is clear that it will be a Modi led goverment with anywhere from a slim to massive majority for NDA.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 11:16:04 am
VDP UP exit poll by community

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If true then the BJP won by winning the battle of non-Jatav Dalit (partly) and really winning the battle for non-Yadav OBC while keeping the Upper Caste from defecting to INC.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 11:23:14 am
Latest NDTV poll of polls

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 11:29:51 am
I found out the ECI ban on exit polls in media outlets until 6:30pm when voting ended for the 7th and last phase is also true for astrologers and tarot card readers whose projections are not allowed to be broadcast on media.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 19, 2019, 11:34:54 am

The largest source of variation appears to be UP, not the tribals, which look to have broke for Modi. The NDAs majority on it's own might depend on it.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 11:50:54 am
The largest source of variation appears to be UP, not the tribals, which look to have broke for Modi. The NDAs majority on it's own might depend on it.

Correct.  I always felt that places like MP, Rajasthan, HP, Haryana, and Gujarat will be highly correlated with each other.  Now we now that they likely broke for BJP although I think the exit polls overestimate it.   It was always UP that was going to be different but it was not clear how with many different surveys on the ground giving very different projections on the ground.  Ergo my obsession with UP throughout the campaign.  That BJP is doing so well in places like Jharkand and Chhattisgarh is a big surprise to me.  It seems the tribals vote overlooked local issues to vote for a strong national security PM.  The Dalit vote did seem to shift away from BJP but was not enough to stop the BJP given the BJP strong performance with Upper Castes and OBCs.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 19, 2019, 12:37:35 pm
Great news but I don’t really trust exit polls anymore 


Also are you going to have a separate thread when the actual results come out


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 19, 2019, 12:41:59 pm
Great news but I don’t really trust exit polls


Also are you going to have a separate thread when the actual results come out

This thread is comparatively tiny when paired with other threads on this board.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 01:11:26 pm
These exit polls have a bunch of bugs in them.   I found a bunch but this one is the best

TimesNow poll has AAP winning 2.9% of the vote in Uttarakhand even though AAP are not running any candidates this time
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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 01:38:18 pm
Local UP base Hindi channel National Voice went seat by seat and came up with

SP-BSP-RLD   49
NDA               27
INC                 4
https://twitter.com/i/status/1130171916088512513

which actually matches big data Anthro AI
https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/uttar-pradesh-2019-projection-seven-phases-144-million-voters-key-issues-one-ballot/

Projection of

SP-BSP-RLD   54
NDA               21
INC                 4
PSP(L)             1 (SP splinter)

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Both projection had the same shock victory of INC to win Kanpur


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 01:42:10 pm
Great news but I don’t really trust exit polls


Also are you going to have a separate thread when the actual results come out

This thread is comparatively tiny when paired with other threads on this board.

Agreed.  No reason to have a separate thread.  Besides I want to use this thread for the assembly elections later in 2019


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 02:15:09 pm
VDP poll breakout by community

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That NDA beat UPA among the tribal vote explains the  Jharkand and Chhattisgarh results


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 19, 2019, 03:55:12 pm
What were exit poll projections in 2004 and 2014


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 19, 2019, 04:35:28 pm
History of exit polls in LS elections

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What were exit poll projections in 2004 and 2014

Basically there is a huge MOE even when compared with your run of the mill exits, especially in some states like UP where 1% swing can move a basket of seats.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 05:32:58 pm
Looking over the exit poll national vote shares where they give it is interesting.   In my model I computed vote share for each significant contestant in each seat and then take into account increase in total votes per district to derive a national vote share.  Clearly I will change them based on a deep dive of each exit poll and state level results where they give it.  But comparing my pre-exit poll projection by seats and vote share is interesting.

                            NDA Vote share   NDA seats     UPA Vote share   UPA seats
Me                             39.3%             256                   31.3%              154
VDP                           39%                333                   33%                 115
Axis My India              45%                352                   27%??               93
TimesNow                  41.1%             306                    31.7%              132
News Nation               38%                286                   30%                 122

So other than Axis My India (which did not give a UPA vote share but I estimate it to be around 27%) the rest of us seems to roughly agree on vote share but deviate dramatically on seat distribution.  I guess we will find out counting night.



Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 05:37:14 pm

The largest source of variation appears to be UP, not the tribals, which look to have broke for Modi. The NDAs majority on it's own might depend on it.

BTW, the Minimum seat projection for UP (22) has been adjusted to 33 by ABP News-Nielsen for NDA.  So the variation is smaller than it would appear.  Still as I pointed out a local UP Hindi news channel has NDA at 27 so the variation still quite large.  I also suspect this "adjustment" is really just another variation of herding.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) on May 19, 2019, 05:39:17 pm
How long does the election take to count votes?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 05:41:56 pm
After the exit polls came out the Rajasthan bookies has BJP at 270-290 and NDA at around 305.

https://www.mynation.com/politics/satta-bazar-sees-pm-modi-coming-back-in-2019-lok-sabha-polls-gives-bjp-nearly-300-seats-prqzjb


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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: S019 on May 19, 2019, 05:45:40 pm
How long does the election take to count votes?

Results are announced on May 23, but we already know that Modi is likely the next PM, and Congress will be in the minority


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 19, 2019, 07:32:29 pm
How long does the election take to count votes?

Results are announced on May 23, but we already know that Modi is likely the next PM, and Congress will be in the minority

Yes, the MOE may be huge but not large enough for anything other then a BJP govt. The question will be whether the NDA gets a majority on it's own or Modi has to woo some minors. A non-Modi BJP govt or a non-NDA govt would require something to be way off.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 19, 2019, 09:09:16 pm
Another TimesNow exit poll bug for Federal city of Chandigarh

BJP winning the seat despite having a lower vote share than INC
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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 20, 2019, 04:06:48 am
C-voter exit poll detailed state level vote share

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I can update my chart of exit poll vote shares

                            NDA Vote share   NDA seats     UPA Vote share   UPA seats
Me                             39.3%             256                   31.3%              154
VDP                           39%                333                   33%                 115
Axis My India              45%                352                   27%??               93
TimesNow                  41.1%             306                    31.7%              132
News Nation               38%                286                   30%                 122
C-Voter                      42.3%             287                    29.6%              128

C-voter vote share and seat share more consistent with my model


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 20, 2019, 04:18:47 am
Some Odisha local media exit polls

Sambad/Kanak news:

Assembly- 146/147
BJD- 85-95
BJP - 25-34
Cong - 12-15

Loksabha: 21/21
BJD 6-9
BJP 8-12
Cong - 0-1


Pragaativadi Odia daily survey
Assembly:146/147
BJD- 104
BJP: 26
Cong- 15
Cpim-1

Loksabha: 21/21
BJD - 15
BJP - 5
Cong - 1

Both seems to more positive on INC than national polls to the point where both seem to indicate INC could win a LS seats.  Clear split in the assembly and LS voting with BJD doing better than assembly election and BJP doing relatively better in LS election.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on May 20, 2019, 04:46:16 am
The largest source of variation appears to be UP, not the tribals, which look to have broke for Modi. The NDAs majority on it's own might depend on it.

Correct.  I always felt that places like MP, Rajasthan, HP, Haryana, and Gujarat will be highly correlated with each other.  Now we now that they likely broke for BJP although I think the exit polls overestimate it.   It was always UP that was going to be different but it was not clear how with many different surveys on the ground giving very different projections on the ground.  Ergo my obsession with UP throughout the campaign.  That BJP is doing so well in places like Jharkand and Chhattisgarh is a big surprise to me.  It seems the tribals vote overlooked local issues to vote for a strong national security PM.  The Dalit vote did seem to shift away from BJP but was not enough to stop the BJP given the BJP strong performance with Upper Castes and OBCs.
It makes sense to focus on UP given the sheer amount of seats there.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 20, 2019, 07:32:23 am
SENSEX up monday by 3.75% on prospect of a stable Modi government after elections.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 20, 2019, 07:41:53 am
One thing that strikes me about these exit polls are a comparison to 2017 UP assembly elections with respect to how opposition parties are acting.  After the 2017 UP assembly exit polls came out and in fact right before it, SP and INC came out attacking and blaming the other side for a likely defeat.  And that is when not all UP assembly exit polls showed a BJP majority as some actually showed BJP falling a bit short.  This time around most exit polls shows BJP winning UP  LS elections although some show the BJP down at 33 out of 80.  SP and BSP leadership seems fairly silent and went about their ways with each other and also with meetings with INC and other regional parties on post-election strategy.  It seems the difference here are the ground reports in 2017 seems to confirm the worst of the exit polls while ground reports from SP and BSP cadres does not seem to confirm the worst case exit poll scenario in UP.  Off the record comments from INC leaders are that the exit polls do not match their understanding of their ground reports but they are worried that so many have a BJP landslide. 

The betting markets seems to partly discount the exit polls with a BJP majority and instead project BJP at around 240 and INC around 80
https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today/story/satta-bazaar-also-roots-for-a-modi-comeback-1529168-2019-05-20
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I suspect the main reasons is a lot of local non-English media did their exit polls more based around ground reports all seem to give the BJP the edge in many battleground states but not the the degree  expressed in some of the exit reports.  In Karnataka the local BJP expressed shock at exit reports showing BJP with 20+ seats out of 28 when their own assessment is that of BJP at 18-19 at most.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 20, 2019, 02:18:13 pm
Confirmed that Axis MyIndia exit poll had UPA vote share to be 27% (which was my guess anyway given NDA vote share is 45% and the seat projections)

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Updated chart of exit poll vote shares

I can update my chart of exit poll vote shares and seats

                            NDA Vote share   NDA seats     UPA Vote share   UPA seats
Me                             39.3%             256                   31.3%              154
VDP                           39%                333                   33%                 115
Axis My India              45%                352                   27%                  93
TimesNow                  41.1%             306                    31.7%              132
News Nation               38%                286                   30%                 122
C-Voter                      42.3%             287                    29.6%              128


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: S019 on May 20, 2019, 02:52:59 pm
What are your projections for Bihar


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 20, 2019, 09:22:32 pm
It seems News18-IPSOS vote share is NDA 48.5% UPA 25%.  So my chart of exit poll with national vote share are

                            NDA Vote share   NDA seats     UPA Vote share   UPA seats
Me                             39.3%             256                   31.3%              154
News Nation               38%                286                   30%                 122
C-Voter                      42.3%             287                    29.6%              128
TimesNow                  41.1%             306                    31.7%              132
VDP                           39%                333                   33%                 115
News18-IPSOS            48.5%             350                   25%                  95
Axis My India              45%                352                   27%                  93

It seems VDP is really out of line with everyone else.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 20, 2019, 09:24:04 pm

Still working on adjusting my model based on exit poll results.   I currently have it at NDA 28 UPA 12 and most likely that will not change.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 20, 2019, 10:13:16 pm
Some of the exit pollsters came out with their methodology which sort of explains the divergence in their results. 

India Today-Axis which had a NDA landslide with NDA 352 UPA 93  seems did not poll based on candidates.  Instead they polled people's approval of different parties by various demographics and then used the demographics of each district to construct the winning party.   Given the relative popularity of Modi/BJP vis-a-vis Gandhi/INC one can see how a NDA landslide must be the result.

ABP-CSDS which has NDA with a bare majority at NDA 277 UPA 130 tried to filter out peer pressure to that might lead someone to voice support BJP/Modi.  It sounds a lot like Trafalgar tried to detect hidden Trump voters in 2016.

While India Today-Axis approach seems illogical because it seems like trying to predict the USA House of Rep election based on a series of generic party approval polls without consideration of the candidates it could end up being taking place.  If the 2019 election ends up being a post-caste election where Modi has transcended caste as a key factor in voting behavior but instead just view their vote to be for Modi then the result of the India Today-Axis could take place.  If so the LS election of 2019 after the 2014 Modi anti-INC wave victory would be like FDR realignment election 1936 after a 1932 FDR victory over an exhausted GOP regime.  2014 Modi victory would be a standard anti-incumbent surge but 2019 would be a complete political realignment of the voting patterns that would produce a framework of BJP majorities in several elections to come.  Modi start a new era of BJP domination much like Nehru built a INC machine that would win several elections in a role as a dominate ruling party.

I personally do not think that is what we are looking at but it could be what takes place on May 23.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 21, 2019, 08:52:51 am
Various opposition parties are convinced (or convinced themselves) that these exit polls that does not match their ground reports are part of a plot to rig the EVM.  They seem to have little faith in ECI.  So a lot of them are holding 24-7 watch on the EVM storage locations across the country.

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Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 21, 2019, 08:57:18 am
A lot of local non-English media seems to come out with projection numbers not as favorable for the BJP as the national exit polls.  Does not mean they are right.  I think the results will show which of the two election models we are now living in, a candidate personality/caste driven election system or a post-caste national election system.  If the former then the local media approach of seat by seat analysis of the caste identities of the candidates and population will prove correct.  If the later then the Modi/BJP image will overcome anti-incumbency caste equation politics which was so prominent since 1989 and sweep to a massive BJP landslide. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 21, 2019, 09:25:26 am
Right now I don't think the election is rigged or corrupted, at least any more than the usual. What's likely happening is that Modi's and the BJP's approvals are carrying a lot of weight in the national models when they may not end up being factors in a bunch of seats - unless as you say there has been a reallignment. You don't have many variables to work with on a national level that are useful through all 7 waves and can match the intricacies of the religious/caste/ethnic/regional/tribal/etc issues. So everything rests on the assumption that Modi's approved will be the most powerful factor, it's up to each individual to decide if this variable is as powerful as assumed. There is a reason for the usually unreasonable levels of error in the exit polls.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 21, 2019, 09:51:53 am
A look at turnout data from constituency I got from the last few rounds seems to still show the same trends.  Relative under-performance in terms of turnout in urban areas and over-performance in term of turnout in tribal Muslim and rural areas.  In Modi's own seat of Varanasi turnout actually dropped.  For the BJP to win by a large margin like the exit polls indicated then a bunch of voters that voted against the BJP in 2014 during an pro-BJP anti-incumbent surge will not have to switch their vote to BJP this time around as well as BJP getting a large chunk of new voter votes.  There is no getting around that fact.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 21, 2019, 10:04:41 am
Right now I don't think the election is rigged or corrupted, at least any more than the usual. What's likely happening is that Modi's and the BJP's approvals are carrying a lot of weight in the national models when they may not end up being factors in a bunch of seats - unless as you say there has been a reallignment. You don't have many variables to work with on a national level that are useful through all 7 waves and can match the intricacies of the religious/caste/ethnic/regional/tribal/etc issues. So everything rests on the assumption that Modi's approved will be the most powerful factor, it's up to each individual to decide if this variable is as powerful as assumed. There is a reason for the usually unreasonable levels of error in the exit polls.

Clearly there is no organized cheating.  I think the opposition parties running around talking about EVMs is partly them internalizing the fact even if the exit polls were off the BJP did very well so they have to explain that fact to their cadre.  Blaming possible cheating on ECI is part of that story.  Also doing this is a way to signal to each other they have not given up.  There is still a small chance that NDA fall well short of a majority.  So if the anti-BJP parties are not ready to  to to the pro-BJP President of India with a coherent anti-BJP alliance  then Modi will get a first shot to lure neutral parties like BJD and YSRCP on their side.  By barking about cheating by ECI the various anti-BJP parties are signaling to each other they they are not giving up and to take plans on forming an post-election alliance seriously.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 21, 2019, 10:15:09 am
As for this election being a national election or not really comes down the to if the BJP can get national acceptance on its national building vision versus that of the INC.

The INC vision of nation building us based on the USA model of unifying a nation around a set of rationalist principles that can superseded individual community identities that will continue to exist along side the rationalist consensus.   

The BJP vision of nation building uses Bismarck Germany and modern China as the model which centers around a common historical narrative that focus on a fusion of related and but disparate identities into one super-arching nationalist narrative.  A post-caste India where caste identities can be subsumed into a Hindu Indo-Aryan identity would be the BJP vision of building a functional superpower that can rival USA and PRC.

So in many ways if the BJP can get the Hindu Indo-Aryan population to think in the way they want them to think then the BJP is headed for a landslide victory that would serve the basis of a long term BJP domination of Indian politics and direction of the nation as a whole.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 21, 2019, 11:09:24 am
News Nation The McLaughlin Group like panel of senior journalists predictions

       NDA    UPA
A      300     105
B      324      74  -> must be their Pat Buchanan
C      180     190 -> must be their Eleanor Clift
D      315      90


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 21, 2019, 11:40:02 am
As for this election being a national election or not really comes down the to if the BJP can get national acceptance on its national building vision versus that of the INC.

The INC vision of nation building us based on the USA model of unifying a nation around a set of rationalist principles that can superseded individual community identities that will continue to exist along side the rationalist consensus.   

The BJP vision of nation building uses Bismarck Germany and modern China as the model which centers around a common historical narrative that focus on a fusion of related and but disparate identities into one super-arching nationalist narrative.  A post-caste India where caste identities can be subsumed into a Hindu Indo-Aryan identity would be the BJP vision of building a functional superpower that can rival USA and PRC.

So in many ways if the BJP can get the Hindu Indo-Aryan population to think in the way they want them to think then the BJP is headed for a landslide victory that would serve the basis of a long term BJP domination of Indian politics and direction of the nation as a whole.   

I don’t think so , I look at it more that the INC wants to make India more like a Modern Day Europe while the BJP wants to make India more like the US . I don’t see Modi as really any more nationalist than say George W Bush was .

I mean the reason he seems more nationalist in India than Bush seemed here is because it seems out of the ordinary in India while it isn’t out of the ordinary here . I mean take Europe for example if a party their was even as nationalist as the Dem Party was here till around 2005 it would be considered too overtly nationalist and if it was as nationalist as the GOP was say even in 2004 and 2005 version it would be considered extreme far right  .


I think India should be more like the US than Europe





Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 21, 2019, 01:19:33 pm
As for AP assembly election the exit polls are

                         TDP           YSRCP        JSP
India Today       37-40        130-135         1    
INSS Media       118               52             5
People's Pulse      59             112            4
TV5                  105               68             2
I-News                49             100
CPS                 37-40         133-135

()

I am pretty sure YSRCP should win.  JSP will cut into the Kapu vote which historically vote TDP anyway so it is hard to see how JSP running separately will help TDP on a caste voting structure basis.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:38:42 am
Betting markets are still at around 240 seats for BJP and 80 seats for INC and NDA around 300.

https://www.mumbailive.com/en/politics/satta-market-seats-loksabha-election-results-narendra-modi-bjp-congress-36090


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:41:42 am
For what it is worth Varanasi Astrologers predict BJP at 140-160 seats and NDA at 220-240 (which makes no sense since that would mean NDA allies will be at 80 which is very unlikely if BJP held to 140-160) and NDA at 110-140 which is fairly inconsistent with NDA at 220-240

https://www.latestly.com/india/politics/lok-sabha-elections-2019-bjp-not-to-win-more-than-140-160-seats-nda-220-240-predict-varanasi-astrologers-864442.html


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 01:36:57 pm
CSDS published their vote share estimates

Looks like

NDA   41%
UPA   29%

Which would be a blowout victory for NDA
()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 02:40:26 pm
Final projection from me post exit polls.

I am mostly going to double down on the election being state-centric and not national in nature.  On that basis I tend to go with worse than expected performance for the state incumbent party.  Based exit polls I do accept for places like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and MP where there is a new state government the INC will not get a honeymoon bounce due to Modi impact.  I also accept based on exit polls that in Gujarat Modi is able to overcome state anti-incumbency as the favorite son.  Elsewhere I am giving the state ruling party/bloc worse than expected performance.  

J&K: I decided to break up my projection by each region (Kashmir, Ladakh, Jammu)

Kashmir:
Very low turnout so who knows what will take place.  But generally slight edge for JKN

2019
NDA:       0 BJP          2.1%
UPA:        0 INC         4.1% (tactically alliance with JKN)
Others     2 JKN        41.5% (tactical alliance with INC)
               1 PDP       30.4%
               0 JPC        14.9% (Separatist)

2014
NDA:      0 (0 BJP)                   1.4%
UPA:       0 (0 JKN)                34.9%
Others:   3 PDP                     46.9%
              0 JPC                       6.3%


Ladakh:
4 way battle with INC winning as it gains Buddhist vote from BJP

NDA:       0 BJP          23.6%
UPA:        1 INC         33.2%  
Others     0 ISK          28.1% (backed by JKN and PDP)  
               0 INC rebel  13.1%

2014
NDA:      1 (1 BJP)                 26.6%
UPA:       0 (0 INC)                22.6%
Others:   0 ISK                      24,2%
              0 INC rebel              26.6%


Jammu:
Hindu consolidation should see BJP through

2019
NDA:       2 BJP        46.3%
UPA:        0 INC       41.3% (backed by JKN and PDP)
Others     0 BJP rebel  5.0%
 
2014
NDA:      2 (2 BJP)                 48.6%
UPA:       0 (0 INC)                34.6%
              0 PDP                      8.7%


HP:
Mostly replicates 2017 assembly elections, high number of Upper Caste voters gives BJP a sweep.

2019
NDA: 3 BJP     52.1%
UPA: 1 INC     45.0%

2014
NDA: 4 BJP      53.9%
UPA: 0 INC      41.1%


Haryana:
INLD split with splinter JPP helps both BJP and INC.  BJP splinter LSP does not make that much of an impact other than in the seat of the LSP leader.

2019
NDA:      7 BJP              41.5%
UPA:      3 INC              28.0%
Others:  0  BSP-LSP        7.4%
             0 INLD              6.2%
             0 JJP-AAP        14.1%

2014:
NDA:     7 (7 BJP 0 HJC)        40.9%
UPA:     1 INC                       23.0%
Others: 2 INLD                     24.4%
            0 BSP                        4.6%
            0 AAP                        4.3%


Punjab:
AAP has lost a lot of ground since 2017 assembly elections.  They could have gone to SAD to hurt INC.  But most of that support seems to gone to AAP splinter PEP which split the anti-INC vote to help INC.

2019
NDA:     4 (3 SAD, 1 BJP)     34.3%
UPA:     9 INC                     37.7%
Others: 0 BSP-PEP-LIF           9.6%
            0 AAP                     14.2%

2014:
NDA:     6 (4 SAD, 2 BJP)  35.2%
UPA:     3 INC                  33.2%
Others: 4 AAP                  24.5%
            0 BSP                   1.9%


Delhi
AAP landslide victory of 2015 assembly elections is now a distant memory with AAP administration losing a lot of credibility.    AAP loses support  back to INC which means BJP nearly sweeps the polls again

2019
NDA:    6 BJP     43.0%
UPA:     1 INC    33.3%
Others: 0 AAP    19.2%
            0 BSP     3.1%

2014:
NDA:    7 BJP   46.6%
UPA:     0 INC  15.2%
Others: 0 AAP  33.1%


Uttarakhand
Results will mostly mimic 2017 assembly election with BJP losing some ground due to anti-incumbency which is partly mitigated by Modi's popularity in the Hindu heartland  

2019
NDA:     4 BJP           47.2%
UPA:     1 INC           41.5%
Others  0 BSP             7.9%

2014:
NDA:    5 BJP    55.9%
UPA:     0 INC    34.4%
Others: 0 BSP     4.8%


UP:
SP-BSP-RLD Grand Alliance consolidates backward vote to beat back BJP.  INC resurgence in some seats and SP splinter PSP cuts into Grand Alliance votes and prevents even greater BJP losses.

2019
NDA:    32 (30 BJP 2 AD(S))                            40.1%
UPA:      3 INC-JAP (3 INC)                              11.3%
Others: 45 SP-BSP-RLD(24 SP 19 BSP 2 RLD )  41.7%
             0 PSP-PECP                                        1.9%

2014
NDA:    73 (71 BJP 2 AD)   43.6%
UPA:       2 INC                   8.5%
Others:   5 SP                   22.3%
              0 BSP                 19.8%


Bihar:
Nitish Kumar's popularity pulls NDA ahead despite anti-incumbency.  CPI(ML) has tactical alliance with UPA.
 
2019
NDA:   28 (14 BJP 9 JD(U) 5 LJP)                      47.7%
UPA:    12 (5 RJD 4 INC 2 RLSP 1 HAM 0 VIP)    39.9% (tactical alliance with CPI(ML)
Others   0 CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI                               3.2% (tactical alliance with UPA)

2014
NDA:   31 (22 BJP 6 LJP 3 RLSP)         39.5%
UPA:     7 (4 RJD 2 INC 1 NCP)           30.3%
Others: 2 JD(U)-CPI (2 JD(U) 0 CPI)   17.2%


MP
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory but still INC makes gains in tribal and urban areas
 
2019
NDA:  22 BJP              50.7%
UPA:    7  INC             41.3%
Others 0 SP-BSP-GGP   4.7%

2014
NDA:  27 BJP     54.8%
UPA:    2 INC     35.4%


Rajasthan
Modi wave eats into the INC advantage from the 2018 assembly election victory

2019
NDA: 21 BJP (20 BJP 1 RLP)     52.2%
UPA:   4 INC                           42.3%

2014
NDA: 25 BJP    55.6%
UPA:   0 INC    30.7%


Chhattisgarh
Tribal votes seems to be shifting away from BJP which adds to the INC edge after the 2018 assembly election victory which will contain the Modi wave in Upper Caste areas.

2019
NDA:    5 BJP          42.8%
UPA:     6 INC         46.4%
Others: 0 BSP          5.4% (backed by JCC but not running)

2014
NDA:  10 BJP    49.7%
UPA:    1 INC    39.1%


Jharkhand
INC-JMM-JVM  alliance will create a base too large for BJP to beat even with AJSU alliance, especially given anti-incumbency building up.  In the end RJD had a tactical alliance with UPA

2019
NDA:    4 (4 BJP 0 AJSU)                      40.6%
UPA:     9 (4 JMM 3 INC 2 JVM )            44.0%
Others: 1 RJD                                       4.6%
            0 CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI                   3.1%

2014
NDA:  12 BJP                            40.7%                
UPA:    2 (2 JMM 0 INC 0 RJD)    24.6%
Others:0 JVM                            12.3%
           0 AJSU                            3.8%


Gujarat
INC make s a slight comeback but the Modi wave is still powerful in his home state.

2019
NDA:  22 BJP        52.9%
UPA:    4 INC        41.8%

2014
NDA:  26 BJP                       60.1%
UPA:    0 (0 INC 0 NCP)        34.4%


Maharashtra
BJP got SHS to come aboard to an alliance which might not work on the ground.  INC and NCP deeply divided but does have de facto NMS support.  Dalit-Muslim BVA-AIMIM will split the INC-NCP vote and help give NDA a partial victory despite anti-incumbency.

2019
NDA:       30 (18 BJP 12 SHS)                             45.2%
UPA:        18 (7 INC 9 NCP 1 SWP 1 BVA 0 YSP)   41.2%
Others:     0 VBA-AIMIM                                       7.1%

2014
NDA:    42 (23 BJP 18 SHS 1 SWP)         51.6%
UPA:      6 (2 INC 4 NCP)                       35.0%
Others:  0 NMS                                       1.5%


Goa
BJP government in turmoil should give INC a chance

2019
NDA:  1 BJP     50.0%
UPA:   1 INC    43.7%

2014
NDA: 2 BJP    54.1%
UPA:  0 INC   37.0%


WB:
Left Front implosion and lack of INC-Left Front tactical alliance will doom Left Front.  BJP surges as it captures the anti-incumbency vote.

2019
NDA:      15 BJP             36.1%
UPA:         2 INC              7.5%
Others:   25 AITC           40.0%
               0  Left Front    13.1%

2014
NDA:      2 BJP           17.0%
UPA        4 INC            9.7%
Others: 34 AITC         39.8%
             2 Left Front   30.1%


Orissa:
INC imploding and anti-incumbency votes going to BJP leads to a shock BJP victory here even as BJD might have an edge in the assembly election.

2019
NDA:    14 BJP                         43.7%
UPA:      0 INC-JMM-CPI-CPM    16.2%
Others:  7 BJD                         37.1%

2014
NDA:     1 BJP     21.9%
UPA       0 INC    26.4%
Others: 20 BJD   44.8%


Karnataka
INC-JD(S) alliance will not work well on the ground letting BJP to capture a shock win here.  JD(S)-INC state government likely to fall after LS election results out.

2019
NDA:        18 (14 BJP 0 BJP Ind)  48.3%
UPA:        10 (7 INC 3 JD(S))       45.8%
Others:      0 UPP                        2.1%

2014
NDA:   17 BJP      43.4%
UPA:     9 INC      41.2%
Others: 2 JD(S)   11.2%


AP
5 way battle and JSP splitting the anti-incumbency vote  allows TDP to avoid a total wipe-out. YSRCP most likely will back BJP post-election.  YSRCP alliance with TRS also drives some anti-Telagana votes to TDP.

2019
NDA:       0 BJP                       5.0%
UPA:        0 INC                      4.2%
Others:  20 YSRCP                 41.0%
              5 TDP                     35.3%
              0 JSP-BSP               10.2% (tactical alliance with Left)
              0 CPI-CPM-CPM(ML)   2.2% (tactical alliance with JSP-BSP)

2014
NDA:    17 (15 TDP 2 BJP)    48.0%
UPA:       0 INC                     2.9%
Others:   8 YSRCP                45.7%


Telangana
TRS to repeat the 2018 assembly election landslide.  CPI TDP are backing to INC to no avail as AIMIM has a tactical alliance with TRS.  YSRCP pretty much pulled out of the state to back TRS.

2019
NDA:      0 BJP                   13.7%
UPA:       1 INC                  32.0%
Others: 15 TRS                  45.0%
              1 AIMIM                2.7%
              0 JSP-BSP             3.0% (tactical alliance with CPI-CPM)
              0 CPI-CPM            1.0% (tactical alliance with JSP-BSP)

2014
NDA:      2 (1 BJP 1 TDP)     22.8%
UPA:      2 INC                    25.7%
Others: 11 TRS                   34.9%
             1 YSRCP                 4.5%
             1 AIMIM                 3.5%


TN
AIADMK split into splinter AMMK and anti-incumbency will defeat NDA despite the size of the alliance.  The NDA defeat could end up being worse than this.   NMN eats into the UPA vote or else it will be a massive UPA landslide.

Note Vellore election was called off but my projection will still be based on all 39 seats.

2019
NDA:      4 (2 AIADMK 1 BJP 1 PMK 1 DMDK 0 PT 0 TMC 1 PNK)         35.1%
UPA      35 (19 DMK 9 INC 2 VCK 2 CPI 2 CPM 0 MUL 1 IJK 0 KMDK )  44.1%
Others:  0 AMMK-SDPI                                                                    12.0%
             0 NMN                                                                                5.7%
              
2014
NDA:       2 (1 PMK 1 BJP 0 DMDK 0 MDMK)     18.7%
UPA:       0 INC                                                4.4%
Others:  39 AIADMK                                       44.9%
              0 DMK                                             27.2%


Kerala
Sabarimala temple issue will crush Left Front and lead to a large scale defection of Left Front vote to BJP who will finally win a seat in Kerala.  This and anti-incumbency will lead to a UPA landslide.  Rahul Gandhi running in Kerala is part of the UPA moving in for the kill.
 
2019
NDA:       1 (1 BJP 0 BDJS 0 KEC(T))              21.9%
UPA:      17 (13 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)  41.7%
Others:   2  Left Front                                   33.3%

2014
NDA:     0 BJP                                              10.9%
UPA:    12 (8 INC 2 MUL 1 KEC(M) 1 RSP)      42.5%
Others:  8 Left Front                                    41.6%


Assam
NDA was about to sweep the state until the new citizenship bill.  Now it is a real fight with anti-incumbency building up.  AIUDF only running in 3 seats helps INC partly but also drives Hindu votes away from INC to NDA even as AIUDF Muslim vote swing to INC.

2019
NDA:       6 (5 BJP 1 BPF 0 AGP)     40.8%
UPA:        7 INC                            42.0%
Others:    1 AIUDF                          9.9%

2014
NDA:      7 BJP                    38.7%
UPA:       3 (3 INC 0 BPF)     31.5%
Others:   3 AIUDF                15.0%
              1 ex-ULFA               4.2%
              0 AGP                     3.9%


6 Federal districts
I expect here to be a small swing away from NDA to UPA with INC gaining a couple of seats

2019
NDA:     3 (3 BJP 0 AINRC)
UPA:     3 (2 INC 1 NCP)

2014
NDA:      5 (4 BJP 1 AINRC)
UPA:     1 (0 INC 1 NCP)


11 Northeast seats
Before the new citizenship bill NDA was going to sweep.  Now several pro-BJP parties are running separately and away from BJP.  Still NDA plus pro-NDA parties will have the edge.  

2019
NDA:     6 (5 BJP 1 NDPP 1)
UPA:      2 INC
Others:  0 Left Front
             3 pro-NDA (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 MNF)

2014
NDA:      4 (1 BJP 1 NPF 1 NPP 1 SDF)
UPA:      5 INC
Others:  2 Left Front


The total result of all this are

NDA: 251 (221 BJP)  39.7% (32.3% BJP)
UPA   154 (98 INC)   30.8% (22.7% INC)

Back in 2014 it was

NDA:  336 (282 BJP)  38.5% (31.1% BJP)
UPA:     59 ( 44 INC)  23.1% (19.3% INC)

So the BJP vote share are mostly similar to 2014 but INC saw a moderate increase.  NDA beats UPA vote share by around 9%.

In 2019
BJP will come in first place in 221 seats and second place 150 seats making its "reach" 371
INC will come in first place in 98 seats and second place 167 seats making its "reach" 265

In 2014
BJP come in first place in 282 seats and second place 54  seats making its "reach" 336
INC will come in first place in 44 seats and second place 224 seats making its "reach" 268

So INC's "reach" stayed around the same (it became more relevant in TN but lost relevance in WB, Odisha and the Northesst) and BJP's "reach" increased  by 40 some seats (mostly in WB, Odisha and the Northeast)

Rest of the seats are
Pro-NDA            3 (1 SDF 1 NPP 1 MNF)
Pro-UPA             7 (5 TDP 2 JKN)
Federal Front     42 (20 YSRCP 15 TRS 7 BJD)
Grand Alliance   70 (25 AITC 24 SP 19 BSP 2 RLD)
Left                   6 (2 Left Front 2 CPI 2 CPM) [2 CPI 2 CPM from alliance with UPA in TN)
Anti-NDA           5 (3 AIUDF 1 AIMIM 1 PDP)


NDA should be able to form a government with pro-NDA parties and some Federal Front party support.  YSRCP will for sure back NDA as most likely will TRS.  BJD might stay away to deal with its new rival the BJP in Odisha.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 02:58:25 pm
INC workers sleeping outside the counting station in the UP seat of Unnao to guard the EVM inside.  Unnao is one of the few seats where INC has a chance to win in UP.  This seems to be replicated across many states by the main anti-BJP party of said state.

()


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 04:09:39 pm
Counting will start 8am Delhi time (10:30PM EST).  The way Indian count works there is always a bump for the landslide winner at the very end.  So if early in the count we see NDA below a majority then the result will most likely be NDA without a majority or NDA with a narrow majority.  If early in the count we see NDA with a comfortable majority then it will be a mega NDA landslide in the end. Rarely do the side that is losing suddenly pull ahead or reduce the winner's margin of victory at the end of the count.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 22, 2019, 05:22:41 pm
Counting will start 8am Delhi time (10:30PM EST).  The way Indian count works there is always a bump for the landslide winner at the very end.  So if early in the count we see NDA below a majority then the result will most likely be NDA without a majority or NDA with a narrow majority.  If early in the count we see NDA with a comfortable majority then it will be a mega NDA landslide in the end. Rarely do the side that is losing suddenly pull ahead or reduce the winner's margin of victory at the end of the count.

In this case do you mean on a seat by seat basis, or overall? For example, if a seat looks close early on, it might break for the winning party? Or is it a case of the TCTC seats breaking towards the overall winner, as is usually the case in fptp systems.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 05:32:34 pm
Counting will start 8am Delhi time (10:30PM EST).  The way Indian count works there is always a bump for the landslide winner at the very end.  So if early in the count we see NDA below a majority then the result will most likely be NDA without a majority or NDA with a narrow majority.  If early in the count we see NDA with a comfortable majority then it will be a mega NDA landslide in the end. Rarely do the side that is losing suddenly pull ahead or reduce the winner's margin of victory at the end of the count.

In this case do you mean on a seat by seat basis, or overall? For example, if a seat looks close early on, it might break for the winning party? Or is it a case of the TCTC seats breaking towards the overall winner, as is usually the case in fptp systems.

Overall.  Note counting is NOT random.  They announce results in rounds.  So they completely count precinct 1-10, announce results, then count precinct 11-20, then announced combined results etc etc.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 22, 2019, 06:00:06 pm
Counting will start 8am Delhi time (10:30PM EST).  The way Indian count works there is always a bump for the landslide winner at the very end.  So if early in the count we see NDA below a majority then the result will most likely be NDA without a majority or NDA with a narrow majority.  If early in the count we see NDA with a comfortable majority then it will be a mega NDA landslide in the end. Rarely do the side that is losing suddenly pull ahead or reduce the winner's margin of victory at the end of the count.

In this case do you mean on a seat by seat basis, or overall? For example, if a seat looks close early on, it might break for the winning party? Or is it a case of the TCTC seats breaking towards the overall winner, as is usually the case in fptp systems.

Overall.  Note counting is NOT random.  They announce results in rounds.  So they completely count precinct 1-10, announce results, then count precinct 11-20, then announced combined results etc etc.

Got,  it, thanks. Like everything else in the Indian elections, this is different from what we see in other nations.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 06:08:36 pm
As for results I tend to use NDTV

https://www.ndtv.com/

for the fastest results.  Main problem is early on a lot of results will be postal votes which will skew the results (and tend to lean BJP).  NDTV also show unofficial results from stringers

The official ECI site

https://results.eci.gov.in/

is really slow and useful only toward the end.  But what this site does is it does a good job aggregating vote share when it dose show results which is a useful tool to get a sense what the result will end up being.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 06:14:13 pm
Turnout in 2019 in historical preservative

()

The bad news for INC overall is that higher turnout (1967 1977 2014) are anti-INC waves with only 1 (1984) pro-INC waves.  2019 is more likely to be an anti-INC wave.  On the flip side the anti-INC waves (1967 1977 2014) are also anti-incumbent waves  while only 1984 is a pro-incumbent wave.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 22, 2019, 07:10:57 pm
What are some of the English Channels again to watch the results(We have Sling International even though we rarely use it)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 07:17:56 pm
What are some of the English Channels again to watch the results(We have Sling International even though we rarely use it)

NDTV live stream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR7HkEa3Swg

India Today live stream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7dbhET6_EA

CNN-News18 live stream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ddwo0kHYuE

Republic TV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJPrdTSWbfs

I will be watching NDTV because they tend to be the fastest


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: RoboWop on May 22, 2019, 08:18:52 pm
Is it even worth staying up for this on the East Coast?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: RoboWop on May 22, 2019, 09:02:56 pm
NDTV hosts just roasted Hillary Clinton for claiming that Russians stole the election.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 09:34:30 pm
Is it even worth staying up for this on the East Coast?

I am up for it.

Some results already (all in Karnataka)

Leading
NDA   2 (--)
UPA   2 (--)



Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 09:42:58 pm
Votes so far are mostly military vote which will be pro-BJP

NDA    34(--)
UPA    10(+2)
OTH     1(-2)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 09:48:40 pm
Votes so far are mostly military vote which will be pro-BJP

NDA    78(--)
UPA    24(+5)
OTH     5(-5)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 09:59:45 pm
Votes so far are mostly postal or military vote which will be pro-BJP

NDA    125(-8)
UPA     51(+14)
OTH     22(-6)

Stringer sources
NDA    202
UPA      51
OTH     18

Another 30-60 min before election day votes being to come in


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Chosen One Giuseppe Conte on May 22, 2019, 10:08:06 pm
Does what's in so far indicate a probable NDA megatsunami or is the postal and military vote unrepresentative enough that we shouldn't be assuming that yet?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:09:45 pm
Trends so far seems to conform to exit polls.   BJP winning big in UP and Karnataka while UPA sweeping TN.  Still most are still postal ballots


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:10:23 pm
Does what's in so far indicate a probable NDA megatsunami or is the postal and military vote unrepresentative enough that we shouldn't be assuming that yet?

Not yet.  But the patterns do fit the pro-NDA exit polls so if I were BJP I will be very pleased so far. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:14:00 pm
Votes so far are mostly postal or military vote which will be pro-BJP

NDA    169(-21)
UPA     72(+28)
OTH     40(-7)

Note these change exaggerates BJP losses since the the diff counts AIADMK as part of NDA which was NOT part of NDA in 2014


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:24:34 pm
Votes so far are mostly postal or military vote which will be pro-BJP but some will be the real vote

NDA    199(-31)
UPA     86(+35)
OTH     60(-4)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:25:33 pm
Karnataka ECI vote share have some signification numbers seems very bad for INC-JD(S)

BJP           51.2%
INC-JD(S)  44.7%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 22, 2019, 10:29:04 pm
Does it look so far similar to 2014


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Chosen One Giuseppe Conte on May 22, 2019, 10:31:05 pm

It definitely looks like the UPA is consolidating the anti-Modi vote better than it did in 2014 (not that that's saying much), if nothing else.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:31:47 pm
MP ECI vote share which is somewhat significant also look bad for INC

BJP   58.1%
INC   35.1% 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:33:21 pm
Votes so far are mostly postal or military vote which will be pro-BJP but some will be the real vote

NDA    223(-38)
UPA     97(+43)
OTH     70(-4)

Karnataka and UP looking good for BJP.  TN looks good for UPA. Maharashtra surprising well for UPA so far. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:36:50 pm
Best guess so far would be the bookies got it right again: NDA around 300


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: pikachu on May 22, 2019, 10:37:38 pm
Everything looks like expected, no? BJP losing ground in the Hindi belt, but making up enough in Bengal, Orissa, Karnataka and wherever else.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:38:07 pm
Everything looks like expected, no? BJP losing ground in the Hindi belt, but making up enough in Bengal, Orissa, Karnataka and wherever else.

Yep.  And in TN NDA getting smashed.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:39:48 pm
Some real votes now

NDA    240(-44)
UPA    102(+48)
OTH     81(-4)

Stringer sources
NDA   243
UPA    117
OTH   102


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:41:31 pm
Rajasthan ECI vote share which is somewhat significant also look bad for INC

BJP   61.8%
INC   33.4%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:42:49 pm
Karnataka is now NDA 23 UPA 5 with significant votes in. What a disaster for this disastrous INC-JD(S) alliance


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:57:11 pm
BJP winning the battle of UP.  Vote share is now

BJP              51.7%
SP-BSP-RLD  36.5%
INC               6.8%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 22, 2019, 10:58:06 pm
BJP winning the battle of UP.  Vote share is now

BJP              51.7%
SP-BSP-RLD  36.5%
INC               6.8%

If that number holds how would that translate in seats


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: RoboWop on May 22, 2019, 10:58:43 pm
Will Gandhi actually lose Amethi?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 10:59:44 pm
Some real votes now

NDA    313(-23)
UPA    101(+41)
OTH     91(-17)

Stringer sources
NDA    305
UPA    121
OTH    114

Going by my theory of a bump for the winning side which wins by a good margin we are look at NDA at 330-340 or so.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:00:20 pm
BJP winning the battle of UP.  Vote share is now

BJP              51.7%
SP-BSP-RLD  36.5%
INC               6.8%

If that number holds how would that translate in seats

NDA at 60+ seats, like all those "crazy" exit polls which I rejected.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:00:34 pm
Will Gandhi actually lose Amethi?

He will hold on in my view.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 22, 2019, 11:02:05 pm
Will Gandhi actually lose Amethi?

Hopefully, as that might destroy the Gandhi dynasty for good


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Chosen One Giuseppe Conte on May 22, 2019, 11:04:21 pm
Isn't Gandhi running somewhere in Kerala?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:08:16 pm
Hindi zone state vote share are massive for BJP

HP
BJP  70.2%
INC  26.4%

Haryana
BJP   56.1%
INC   28.5%
INLD   2.3%

MP
BJP    58.0%
INC    34.6%

Rajasthan
BJP   59.6%
INC   34.4%

Gujarat (not Hindi but core BJP state)
BJP   60.9%
INC  33.1%

Chhattisgarh
BJP   48.8%
INC   41.5%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:08:47 pm
Isn't Gandhi running somewhere in Kerala?

He is running in 2 seats.  He will clearly win his seat in Kerala.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:10:41 pm
Some real votes now

NDA    315(-27)
UPA    114(+51)
OTH     90(-24)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:12:23 pm
Maharashtra vote share

BJP-SHS   48.6%
INC-NCP   33.4%

Will also be a blowout victory for NDA here


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:14:23 pm
WB vote share

AITC   44.5%
BJP     41.0%
Left      7.0%
INC      3.9%

Anti-AITC vote have consolidated behind BJP


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:17:07 pm
Jharkhand vote share - shock victory for BJP

BJP-AJSU               54.2%
INC-JMM-JVM-RLD  34.5%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:18:36 pm
UP vote share

BJP              50.5%
SP-BSP-RLD  38.3%
INC               6.1%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:20:59 pm
BJP pulls ahead in WB in terms of seats BJP 22 AITC 17 INC 2.  Given the vote share so far I suspect AITC will pull back ahead in the end.  Still a massive surge for BJP


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Marianne Williamson on May 22, 2019, 11:21:19 pm
Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: pikachu on May 22, 2019, 11:22:53 pm
Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

pure speculation, but i'll be surprised if they dump rahul.

even if they do i expect priyanka.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:23:15 pm
Karnataka vote share

BJP           51.3% (and that is not even counting the pro-BJP independent)
INC-JD(S)  42.4%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Bagel23 on May 22, 2019, 11:24:18 pm
Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

I think Rahul will hold on in Kerala, that is not bjp friendly turf.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:25:35 pm
Maharashtra vote share

BJP-SHS   48.4%
INC-NCP   32.2%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:26:32 pm
Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

I think Rahul will hold on in Kerala, that is not bjp friendly turf.

Correct.  I think if INC somehow gets above 80 seats Rahul Gandhi will stay on as leader.  Although 2024 will now look tough for INC to win.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: pikachu on May 22, 2019, 11:26:50 pm
Also, yeesh, what an ugly (if not unsurprising) result all-around so far. Not really sure what the opposition can do other than hope people will eventually get sick of Modi, but even if they do, who's to say that the most popular alternative ends up being Hindutva but more? Just discouraging to see.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Marianne Williamson on May 22, 2019, 11:27:22 pm
Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

I think Rahul will hold on in Kerala, that is not bjp friendly turf.
yeah but you'd think if they barely gained any seats they would dump him as leader


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:28:28 pm
NDA    319(-28)
UPA    111(+46)
OTH    105(-18)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Bagel23 on May 22, 2019, 11:30:47 pm
Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

I think Rahul will hold on in Kerala, that is not bjp friendly turf.
yeah but you'd think if they barely gained any seats they would dump him as leader

Good point, but who actually expected them to gain? Ever since the whole risky sh!tshow with Pakistan, it was obvious Modi had scored a massive win.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: pikachu on May 22, 2019, 11:30:57 pm
Who is next in line to take control of the INC if this holds?

I think Rahul will hold on in Kerala, that is not bjp friendly turf.
yeah but you'd think if they barely gained any seats they would dump him as leader

We'll see, but Indian politics operate differently from the West.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:31:45 pm
So this was a national election after all.  This looks like Modi's FDR 1936 realignment election.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:33:29 pm
MP is it BJP 18 INC 11 seats.  I am very suspicious of this given the vote share results so far.  I suspect it will end up being BJP 27 or 28 out of 29 in the end.  If so the INC result is even worse than what the seat count now shows.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Marianne Williamson on May 22, 2019, 11:36:50 pm
MP is it BJP 18 INC 11 seats.  I am very suspicious of this given the vote share results so far.  I suspect it will end up being BJP 27 or 28 out of 29 in the end.  If so the INC result is even worse than what the seat count now shows.
CNN News 18 is a little different, they have BJP on 285....NDA on 339
Congress on 54.....UPA on 93


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 22, 2019, 11:37:49 pm
So would this result lead to another party on the left rising and potentially causing Congress to go the way the Whig party went here


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:41:43 pm
Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Bagel23 on May 22, 2019, 11:44:27 pm
Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%

Well at least bjp is trailing in my ancestral homeland, so that feels a tad better, but expected.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:47:01 pm
TN vote share

DMK-INC bloc         53.3%
AIADMK-BJP bloc    29.8%

If this holds then it could be a 38-0 sweep for UPA here


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:47:36 pm
Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%

Well at least bjp is trailing in my ancestral homeland, so that feels a tad better, but expected.

One of the few states I actually got the seats and vote count roughly correct (so far)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:48:29 pm
NDA    321(-31)
UPA    110(+45)
OTH    111(-14)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Bagel23 on May 22, 2019, 11:49:30 pm
Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%

Well at least bjp is trailing in my ancestral homeland, so that feels a tad better, but expected.

One of the few states I actually got the seats and vote count roughly correct (so far)

I am keeping an eye on Jalandhar constituency, which is where my family is originally from, any guesses on it?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:50:36 pm
WB seat count now has AITC 23 BJP 15 INC 3 so BJP is falling which is what I said would take place based on my reading of the vote share count coming in.  Still a massive BJP surge.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:52:41 pm
UP vote share

BJP              50.8%
SP-BSP-RLD 38.4%
INC               5.8%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:53:28 pm
Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%

Well at least bjp is trailing in my ancestral homeland, so that feels a tad better, but expected.

One of the few states I actually got the seats and vote count roughly correct (so far)

I am keeping an eye on Jalandhar constituency, which is where my family is originally from, any guesses on it?

My model has a easy INC win there for what it is worth


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 22, 2019, 11:57:49 pm
Bihar Vote share

BJP-JD(U)-LJP        55.0%
RJD-INC-HAM-VIP   23.2% (does not include HAM and VIP which are too small in ECI breakout so I suspect it is something like 26% overall)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Bagel23 on May 22, 2019, 11:58:07 pm
Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%

Well at least bjp is trailing in my ancestral homeland, so that feels a tad better, but expected.

One of the few states I actually got the seats and vote count roughly correct (so far)

I am keeping an eye on Jalandhar constituency, which is where my family is originally from, any guesses on it?

My model has a easy INC win there for what it is worth

Yay, at this point it’s the small bright spots that are keeping me from being very sad right now.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:01:07 am
Delhi vote share

BJP  57.6%
INC  20.5%
AAP  19.2%

If this holds even a INC-AAP alliance would not have worked and would have been a repeat of the Karnataka fiasco


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 23, 2019, 12:01:26 am
Lmao the left on NDTV are blaming the loss on voters benign racist , voting on fears . Looks like they are taking cues from SJW here


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:01:57 am
Based on these trends I think the Karnataka JD(S)-INC and TN AIADMK governments will fall pretty soon.  MP INC government could be in trouble as well.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:02:46 am
INC keeps on talking about BJP media campaign as the cause of victory.  They are not confronting the main problem which is that in a national election they had nothing to counter Modi with.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Bagel23 on May 23, 2019, 12:04:59 am
Sh!t, even Shiv Sena might be gaining.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:04:59 am
Haryana vote share

BJP  57.3%
INC  28.0%
INLD 2.1% !!!!

INLD base completely gone and have gone over to BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 23, 2019, 12:05:06 am
INC keeps on talking about BJP media campaign as the cause of victory.  They are not confronting the main problem which is that in a national election they had nothing to counter Modi with.


Blaming the voters does nothing but set you up of losing after losing elections


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:09:53 am
AP vote share (YSRCP sweep)

YSRCP   49.8%
TDP       39.0%
INC        1.3%
BJP        0.8%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:11:39 am
Telangana vote share

TRS     42.0%
INC     29.0%
BJP     19.1%
AIMIM  2.6%

Not as big of a TRS victory as expected. Still a solid TRS victory can be expected.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:12:42 am
Telangana has TRS 11 BJP 5 INC 1.  No way BJP has 5 seats.  This will go down and go to TRS as more votes comes in.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 23, 2019, 12:13:16 am
Wouldn’t u say this is more like UK 1983 than US 1936


In 1936 the Dems were dominant in every part of the nation while in the UK the Thatcher landslide was based on sweeping wins in England even though they got wiped out in Scotland


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: RoboWop on May 23, 2019, 12:13:30 am
Watching the NDTV pundits trying to navigate all of the various crosstabs and state results and alliances versus parties is kind of hilarious.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:13:55 am
NDA    326(-26)
UPA    105(+40)
OTH    111(-14)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 23, 2019, 12:15:40 am
Watching the NDTV pundits trying to navigate all of the various crosstabs and state results and alliances versus parties is kind of hilarious.

Agreed


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:17:05 am
Wouldn’t u say this is more like UK 1983 than US 1936


In 1936 the Dems were dominant in every part of the nation while in the UK the Thatcher landslide was based on sweeping wins in England even though they got wiped out in Scotland

I use 1936 because 1932 FDR won mostly won based on anti-incumbency.  His 1936 reelection was based on a large realignment to produce a pro-incumbent surge.  UK 1983 is more about the LAB and LIB-SDP split.  Here even if INC did a better job with alliances the result would be the same, in retrospect. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: RoboWop on May 23, 2019, 12:17:21 am
Might do a hold/pick-up map tomorrow if I have the time and results are out.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:17:59 am
At this rate INC would be lucky to cross 60 seats.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:20:19 am
WB vote share is now

AITC  45.1%
BJP    38.9%
Left     6.9%
INC     5.4%

BJP most likely will start to lose ground in terms of seat count here if this vote share sustains itself.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:22:59 am
MP seat count now BJP 23 INC 6 so INC is losing ground like I expected given the ECI reported vote share.  I think INC will end up losing all its seats here as counting goes on.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:28:36 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:35:30 am
SENSEX up 2.2%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:38:41 am
Not many votes are on ECI for Odisha but the vote share so far are

BJD                      42.7%
BJP                      36.9%
INC-JMM-CPM-CPI 15.3%

It seems BJD has survived the storm


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:40:37 am
TN vote share

DMK-INC bloc        52.6%
AIADMK-BJP bloc   30.1%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 23, 2019, 12:41:21 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:42:36 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

Well, I think the BJP is not moving on that because they want the issue more than the temple.  Of course their grassroots want the temple more than the issue.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:50:04 am
In Assam's Kokrajhar, ex-INC ally UPP(L) is ahead and the ex-ULFA incumbent is running second.  BJP ally BPF surprising is running third. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:51:53 am
Uttarakhand vote share

BJP   60.7%
INC   31.7%
BSP    4.5%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 12:55:21 am
Telangana seat so far is TRS 8 BJP 6 INC 3.  Unlikely to hold given ECI vote share reported as TRS 42% INC 29.5% BJP 18.5%.  BJP leading in Hyderbad over AIMIM clearly cannot hold.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Bagel23 on May 23, 2019, 12:57:41 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

()

Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:00:22 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

()

Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Bagel23 on May 23, 2019, 01:14:43 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

()

Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.

It doesn’t even matter at this point in that sense, muslims have like no power or say so in what happens next, they are at the mercy of Modi, who will obviously continue f#cking them over. They already have it, and I guess some people just feel like rubbing salt in wounds, whatever, nothing can be done about it, guess they will pay on judgment day.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:16:36 am
UP vote share (slight shift away from BJP)

BJP              49.1%
SP-BSP-RLD  39.1%
INC                6.0%

The SP-BSL-RLD vote share is actually not that bad and is only slightly below what these 3 parties got in 2014.  What really is pushing BJP ahead is the collapse of the INC vote and BJP consolidation other votes that went to minor players in 2014.  This seems the INC strategy in reverse.  INC was going to cut into the BJP vote by running separately from SP-BSP-RLD but instead they lost votes to BJP.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:17:58 am
Slight shift toward NDA

NDA    329(-23)
UPA      99(+34)
OTH    114(-11)



Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:19:04 am
YSRCP ahead in 24 out of 25 seats in AP.  Massive landslide


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: urutzizu on May 23, 2019, 01:19:16 am
Rahul Gandhi is still trailing in Amethi. And why are NDTV pundits taking Telengana results at face value?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:24:11 am
Rahul Gandhi is still trailing in Amethi. And why are NDTV pundits taking Telengana results at face value?

ECI numbers are further behind media counts so Rahul Gandhi is still ahead.  ECI are good for getting vote shares that gives you  sense what the macro picture looks like while a seat by seat picture is not accurate.   I think NDTV did show surprise that AIMIM is behind BJP in Hyderbad. 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 23, 2019, 01:24:59 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

()

Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.

It doesn’t even matter at this point in that sense, muslims have like no power or say so in what happens next, they are at the mercy of Modi, who will obviously continue f#cking them over. They already have it, and I guess some people just feel like rubbing salt in wounds, whatever, nothing can be done about it, guess they will pay on judgment day.

Ayodhya is the home of Ram though, so there should be a Ram Temple there. Like Jaichind said you can build a mosque right next to the new temple as well and everything will be fine.

Its not nationalist or religious fundamentalism to want that that to happen, its actually the opposite: its respecting both Hindus and Muslims and I am sure if the above happened the vast majority of people would be happy.




Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Bagel23 on May 23, 2019, 01:29:31 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

()

Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.

It doesn’t even matter at this point in that sense, muslims have like no power or say so in what happens next, they are at the mercy of Modi, who will obviously continue f#cking them over. They already have it, and I guess some people just feel like rubbing salt in wounds, whatever, nothing can be done about it, guess they will pay on judgment day.

Ayodhya is the home of Ram though, so there should be a Ram Temple there. Like Jaichind said you can build a mosque right next to the new temple as well and everything will be fine.

Its not nationalist or religious fundamentalism to want that that to happen, its actually the opposite: its respecting both Hindus and Muslims and I am sure if the above happened the vast majority of people would be happy.



Yeah, but I’d be willing to bet a penny or two on said mosque being torched by some hindutva element relatively quickly, there’s no point. Besides why is there even any talk of compromise? Muslims don’t hold any power or leverage to make any of that happened, they are powerless.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:30:17 am
Kerala not going well at all for Left Front but also surprising also not well for BJP.  Rahul Gandhi is making an impact here

INC-IMUL-KEC(M)-RSP   47.4%
Left Front                      31.2% (does not count a couple of pro-Left independents so the real vote share is around 33%-34%)
BJP                               12.5%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 23, 2019, 01:31:30 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

()

Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.

It doesn’t even matter at this point in that sense, muslims have like no power or say so in what happens next, they are at the mercy of Modi, who will obviously continue f#cking them over. They already have it, and I guess some people just feel like rubbing salt in wounds, whatever, nothing can be done about it, guess they will pay on judgment day.

Ayodhya is the home of Ram though, so there should be a Ram Temple there. Like Jaichind said you can build a mosque right next to the new temple as well and everything will be fine.

Its not nationalist or religious fundamentalism to want that that to happen, its actually the opposite: its respecting both Hindus and Muslims and I am sure if the above happened the vast majority of people would be happy.



Yeah, but I’d be willing to bet a penny or two on said mosque being torched by some hindutva element relatively quickly, there’s no point. Besides why is there even any talk of compromise? Muslims don’t hold any power or leverage to make any of that happened, they are powerless.

The people who do that should be jailed for quite some time for that then and I would support increasing current sentences for those types of crimes.




Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:31:51 am
Further shift toward NDA

NDA    331(-21)
UPA      94(+29)
OTH    117(-8)

This is that shift I was talking about that the winning side gains as time continues.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: urutzizu on May 23, 2019, 01:32:23 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

()

Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.

It doesn’t even matter at this point in that sense, muslims have like no power or say so in what happens next, they are at the mercy of Modi, who will obviously continue f#cking them over. They already have it, and I guess some people just feel like rubbing salt in wounds, whatever, nothing can be done about it, guess they will pay on judgment day.

Ayodhya is the home of Ram though

This Argument always works wonderfully with Muslims, just ask the Israelis.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Bagel23 on May 23, 2019, 01:33:54 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

()

Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.

It doesn’t even matter at this point in that sense, muslims have like no power or say so in what happens next, they are at the mercy of Modi, who will obviously continue f#cking them over. They already have it, and I guess some people just feel like rubbing salt in wounds, whatever, nothing can be done about it, guess they will pay on judgment day.

Ayodhya is the home of Ram though, so there should be a Ram Temple there. Like Jaichind said you can build a mosque right next to the new temple as well and everything will be fine.

Its not nationalist or religious fundamentalism to want that that to happen, its actually the opposite: its respecting both Hindus and Muslims and I am sure if the above happened the vast majority of people would be happy.



Yeah, but I’d be willing to bet a penny or two on said mosque being torched by some hindutva element relatively quickly, there’s no point. Besides why is there even any talk of compromise? Muslims don’t hold any power or leverage to make any of that happened, they are powerless.

The people who do that should be jailed for quite some time for that then and I would support increasing current sentences for those types of crimes.




Then I wish you were pm of India over Modi :P


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:33:57 am
NDTV expresses "shock" that MP is now BJP 28 INC 1.  Of course I been saying for a while now that this will be the case.  Just look at the ECI vote shares will tell you the seat share result.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:38:24 am
Maharashtra is now at BJP-SHS 43 NCP 4 AIMIM 1.  INC completely shut out with zero.  AIMIM ahead in Aurangabad because the Hindu vote there split between SHS INC and a SHS rebel.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:39:49 am
Odisha assembly so far it is BJD 101 BJP 26 INC+ 13.   AP assembly so far is YSRCP 145 TDP 25


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:41:26 am
NDTV now has Rahul Gandhi behind in Amethi


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 23, 2019, 01:45:24 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

()

Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.

It doesn’t even matter at this point in that sense, muslims have like no power or say so in what happens next, they are at the mercy of Modi, who will obviously continue f#cking them over. They already have it, and I guess some people just feel like rubbing salt in wounds, whatever, nothing can be done about it, guess they will pay on judgment day.

Ayodhya is the home of Ram though, so there should be a Ram Temple there. Like Jaichind said you can build a mosque right next to the new temple as well and everything will be fine.

Its not nationalist or religious fundamentalism to want that that to happen, its actually the opposite: its respecting both Hindus and Muslims and I am sure if the above happened the vast majority of people would be happy.



Yeah, but I’d be willing to bet a penny or two on said mosque being torched by some hindutva element relatively quickly, there’s no point. Besides why is there even any talk of compromise? Muslims don’t hold any power or leverage to make any of that happened, they are powerless.

The people who do that should be jailed for quite some time for that then and I would support increasing current sentences for those types of crimes.




Then I wish you were pm of India over Modi :P

Im pretty much a law and order conservative by world standards, its just here in the US im liberal cause of how right wing the US is on that issue.

On Modi I have said multiple times blaming him for the 2002 riots is totally unfair as every court has cleared him on that . The reason those riots got out of hand is Law and Order problems not Modi. Think about how much the 1992 LA riots got of hand here in a nation as advanced as ours then think how much worse it would be in a nation plagued with law and order problems like India


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:49:30 am
INC now down to 54 seats.  If that does not go up then just like 2014 INC might not even get the position of Leader of Opposition.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Bagel23 on May 23, 2019, 01:53:29 am
After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

()

Enough blood has already been spilt there, people just need to leave that site alone.

Sure, I agree what took place in 1992 cannot be justified.  Still I think the Muslim community is not being reasonable here.  Islam does not really have any rules on where a masque is located while Hinduism care a lot about where a temple is located.  Not sure why the Muslims just do not make a deal to give up that space in return for BJP/RSS helping build several masques in other locations all over UP.

It doesn’t even matter at this point in that sense, muslims have like no power or say so in what happens next, they are at the mercy of Modi, who will obviously continue f#cking them over. They already have it, and I guess some people just feel like rubbing salt in wounds, whatever, nothing can be done about it, guess they will pay on judgment day.

Ayodhya is the home of Ram though, so there should be a Ram Temple there. Like Jaichind said you can build a mosque right next to the new temple as well and everything will be fine.

Its not nationalist or religious fundamentalism to want that that to happen, its actually the opposite: its respecting both Hindus and Muslims and I am sure if the above happened the vast majority of people would be happy.



Yeah, but I’d be willing to bet a penny or two on said mosque being torched by some hindutva element relatively quickly, there’s no point. Besides why is there even any talk of compromise? Muslims don’t hold any power or leverage to make any of that happened, they are powerless.

The people who do that should be jailed for quite some time for that then and I would support increasing current sentences for those types of crimes.




Then I wish you were pm of India over Modi :P

Im pretty much a law and order conservative by world standards, its just here in the US im liberal cause of how right wing the US is on that issue.

On Modi I have said multiple times blaming him for the 2002 riots is totally unfair as every court has cleared him on that . The reason those riots got out of hand is Law and Order problems not Modi. Think about how much the 1992 LA riots got of hand here in a nation as advanced as ours then think how much worse it would be in a nation plagued with law and order problems like India

The party he oversees and the people he affiliates with and the dogwhistles and Trump like behavior and such little support and membership from muslims and the ultra hindu nationalism lead me to hold him in the position of the Trump of India. He’s not a friend of Islam or muslims, nor does he want to be. Is he a direct murderer or the worst among them? Nah, but he is bad news.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:53:48 am
Back to my theme of BJP vs INC vision of nation building. I think another angle of the Ayodhya conflict is is about the fact that the masque there was build by Babur on top of an allegedly Ram Hindu temple.  The BJP/RSS narrative of Indian history does not consider the Moghul empire as a part of true Indian history.  They are seen as invaders just like the British.  Removing any symbols of this occupation is part of this national building narrative above and beyond the religious sentiments of Hindus toward the Ram temple that was supposedly there for centuries ago.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:54:46 am
The ECI result site crashed ... sigh..


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 01:59:34 am
Further shift toward NDA

NDA    340(-12)
UPA      90(+25)
OTH    112(-13)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 02:03:56 am
Telangana now at TRS 9 BJP 4 INC 3 AIMIM 1.  I think TRS will gain a couple of more seats but it seems overall TRS under-performed.  It seems KCR's move to call assembly elections early in 2018 was very wise.  INC also learned the right less from the 2018 assembly election to drop TDP as its ally.  That mostly got some of the anti-TDP vote to come back and that hurt TRS enough to also get BJP ahead in some seats.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on May 23, 2019, 02:07:50 am
Back to my theme of BJP vs INC vision of nation building. I think another angle of the Ayodhya conflict is is about the fact that the masque there was build by Babur on top of an allegedly Ram Hindu temple.  The BJP/RSS narrative of Indian history does not consider the Moghul empire as a part of true Indian history.  They are seen as invaders just like the British.  Removing any symbols of this occupation is part of this national building narrative above and beyond the religious sentiments of Hindus toward the Ram temple that was supposedly there for centuries ago.

Most people I know believe this as well, and many tell me they were worse than the British as well.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 02:20:58 am
Assam vote share (massive BJP surge in a state where the Muslim population is above 30%)

BJP-AGP-BPF  47.7%
INC               32.6%
AIUDF             8.6%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 02:26:06 am
It seems that although AIADMK was smashed in LS elections it did fairly well in the assembly by-elections.  Most likely for now the AIADMK government will survive.  If so then it is clear that AIADMK should not have allied with BJP in the LS elections as it drove the anti-BJP vote to DMK-INC.  Of course since the BJP was coming back to power at the center AIADMK most likely formed such an alliance knowing that it will be beaten in the LS elections but gains an ally at the federal level and instead invest all their resources toward winning the assembly by-elections


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 02:28:15 am
In AP it is now YSRCP 25 TDP 0.  Another enemy of Modi, TDP's Naidu, bites the dust.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 02:45:04 am
UP vote share (fairly stable now)

BJP                  49.2%
SP-BSP-RLD     39.2%
INC                   6.1%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 02:45:56 am
India Today-Axis My India exit poll ended up being spot on.  What a good call they made.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 02:51:20 am
NDA    337(-15)
UPA      93(+28)
OTH    112(-13)


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: North Fulton Swing on May 23, 2019, 05:14:56 am
Shows you what divided opposition will do.  Got that, progressives and socialists here in the United States?


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 23, 2019, 05:50:51 am
Just woke up. Guess Modi's popularity stood strong huh.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: urutzizu on May 23, 2019, 05:56:46 am
India vote share:
NDA: 45%
UPA: 30%
Others: 25%

Four BJP seats in Telengana almost secure now. If there is anything that i would not have expected, it is that. It shows that the BJP has managed to penetrate the dravidian south outside of karnataka (where the BJP is at 25/28, and where the Cong-JD(S) Government is probably dead). The BJP is truly a national Party now, which is all the more remarkable considering its hindi-hindu-hindustan campaign. Also the Congress is on 55(+11) right now, almost 60% of the UPAs seats are from Kerala and TN.  


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: urutzizu on May 23, 2019, 06:55:28 am
Anti-muslim Terrorist Pragya Singh Thakur has won by more than 200000 Votes for the BJP in Bhopal.
She is charged with a series of bombings that killed six people and injured more than 100.

Imagine if the Congress had run Masood Azhar as a candidate.
 


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 07:08:17 am
Seems like best exit pollster is Today's Chanakya who was the best exit pollster in the 2014 LS election but then was off in several state assembly election and roundly mocked by me as hopelessly pro-BJP although I admitted that in BJP wave elections (like 2017 UP assembly election and now 2019 LS election) it is very accurate.

They have for 2019

BJP 300 ± 14 Seats                 
NDA 350 ± 14 Seats
Cong 55 ± 9 Seats                   
UPA 95 ± 9 Seats
Others 97 ± 11 Seats


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 07:34:09 am
Rahul Gandhi concedes defeat in Amethi.  That is symbolic of the Modi wave in 2019.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 07:39:58 am
Back to my theme of BJP vs INC vision of nation building. I think another angle of the Ayodhya conflict is is about the fact that the masque there was build by Babur on top of an allegedly Ram Hindu temple.  The BJP/RSS narrative of Indian history does not consider the Moghul empire as a part of true Indian history.  They are seen as invaders just like the British.  Removing any symbols of this occupation is part of this national building narrative above and beyond the religious sentiments of Hindus toward the Ram temple that was supposedly there for centuries ago.

Most people I know believe this as well, and many tell me they were worse than the British as well.

Sure.  And I would argue this would be a big difference between the INC vision and BJP vision of India.  INC would would the Moghul empire as part of Indian history vs the British.  That is because the Moghul empire thought of itself as the Empire for Indians (ok with Central Asian connections as well) while the British ruled India in the name of a monarch living in a island thousands of miles away.  The INC vision would not rule out the Moghul empire as part of Indian history due to issues of religion or ethnic background but focus on "do you identify with India/Hindustan".  The BJP vision is more of a shared cultural heritage before the advent of the Muslim/Turkic invasions of the 1000AD+.  Anyone that identify that pre-1000AD cultural heritage is part of BJP vision of India.   


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 07:45:55 am
NDTV vote share

NDA   45%
UPA    29%
OTH    26%

So the UPA vote held up relative to pre-election polls (over-performing in the South but underpinning in the North) but the NDA vote share is higher than pre-election estimates.

Comparison to exit polls and estimates

                            NDA Vote share   NDA seats     UPA Vote share   UPA seats
Me                             39.7%             254                   30.8%              154
VDP                           39%                333                   33%                 115
Axis My India              45%                352                   27%                  93
TimesNow                  41.1%             306                    31.7%              132
News Nation               38%                286                   30%                 122
C-Voter                      42.3%             287                    29.6%              128
CSDS                        41%                                          29%


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 07:49:23 am
NDA    344(-8)
UPA      90(+25)
OTH    108(-17)

INC at 53 seats which means they miss getting the Leader of Opposition position by one seat if that does not change.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 07:57:08 am
On the subject of TN when all of TN votes on Thursday as part of Phase II voting there will be 22 by-elections for TN assembly which could determine if the AIADMK government would fall or not.

The 2016 TN assembly election produced:

AIADMK   136

DMK          89
INC            8
MUL           1

AMMK won the by-election for Jayalalitha's seat and the pro-TTV Dinakaran faction of AIADMK defected to AMMK and were disqualified by the AIADMK speaker.  So now we have

AIADMK    114

AMMK          1

DMK           88
INC              8
MUL             1
 
with 22 by-elections needed.  If AIADMK does not win at least 4-5 out of the 22 by-elections it will lose its majority and most likely early TN assembly elections are needed.  In many ways this elections is more important that the TN LS elections.   NDTV reports that the going rate for vote buying for the LS elections is around $50 per vote but the going rate for assembly by-elections are around $300 per vote.   These 22 by-elections will be a 3 way battles between AIADMK vs DMK vs AMMK with what I have to assume as the DMK with the edge given the old AIADMK base is split down the middle between AIADMK and AMMK.

AIADMK ahead in 9 out of 22 by-elections with DMK ahead in 13.  If so AIADMK hangs on to a majority by a wafer thin margin if these leads holds.  It is clear AIADMK

1) Threw more resources into the by-elections than the LS election as the by-elections means is survival
2) Lost a bunch of votes in the LS election due to alliance with BJP but with BJP in charge AIADMK had no choice and in the end BJP did not win 1 single seat in TN anyway.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 23, 2019, 08:02:56 am


Oops. He's got a seat in Kerala though.


Title: Re: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
Post by: jaichind on May 23, 2019, 08:10:58 am
Other shocking results other than BJP landslide

1) INC ahead in Nagaland!!!??  BJP ex-ally NPF dropped out and backed INC to take on BJP ally and NPF splinter NDPP seems to have worked
2) NPF ahead in Outer Manipur.  Outer Manipur has a bunch of Naga voters but it was expected to be a BJP victory over INC here.  But instead the Naga vote consolidated behind NPF with the non-Naga vote split between INC and BJP
3) Telangana TRS 8 BJP 4 INC 4 AIMIM 1 is a shock.  The TRS has a large vote share lead over INC and BJP.  It seems that the anti-TRS vote tactically voted for INC or BJP to defeat TRS.  
4) AIMIM ahead in Maharastra's Aurangabad.  The Muslim-Dalit vote consolidated around AIMIM (abandoning INC along the way) and the non-Muslim-Dalit vote split between SHS and SHS rebel.
5) AP YSRCP 25-0 sweep over TDP
6) UPP ahead in Assam's Kokrajhar when it was suppose to be a BJP ally BPF fight versus the ex-ULFA incumbent MP.  UPP was allied with BJP in 2014 LS elections and then allied with INC in 2017 assembly election.  If this lead holds then this is a shiock