Talk Elections

Stacey Abrams is being considered to run against Purdue next week after talking with Democratic Pary leaders.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/11/stacey-abrams-senate-campaign-1097718 (https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/11/stacey-abrams-senate-campaign-1097718)

She would be our best candidate, and would certainly clear the Dem field.

I still would say Perdue is favoured, but I wouldn’t exactly like to be an incumbent with a mere +1 net approval.

After the Republican won the Secretary of State runoff, I think that Abrams stands no chance.

Abrams has very, very little chance to win this race. Results of last year elections showed that Georgia is very inelastic

I'm keeping an eye on Teresa Tomlinson but I like Stacey as well.

What is the general analysis of Stacey's gubernatorial run? The Atlanta suburbs moved in our direction but was that anti-Trump or pro-Stacey? How was Democratic turnout in other areas?

I like Abrams, but Georgia is fool's gold for democrats, even more so than Kentucky.

Dems are beating expectations in the House in the 50 state strategy. Yes, the R's kept the red state govs. But, the 40 seat pickup in House proves 50 state strategy works. Abrams will be formidable☺

Abrams won't lose Cobb County and will do better than a 1 point victory in Gwinnett County, so I don't think you should be using that to say "Abrams stands no chance"

The 50 state strategy is working

Still of the belief that Abrams should sit this one out in favor of Tomlinson, and work the cycle to elect as many of her allies to the State Senate and House as possible in preparation for the 2022 gubernatorial election.

Only on Atlas would people that that a Trend R Trump +30 state is more likely to kick out an incumbent Republican Senator than a Trend D Trump +5 state. Sure, the fact that a Democrat would need to hit 50% against Perdue helps him, but in no universe is this race less likely to flip than Kentucky.

Perdue has a tough fight ahead but I don’t see how he doesn’t pull it out at this point. The math just isn’t there yet. I think we’ll pick up Isakson’s seat in 22. I’d rather Tomlinson run this go around tho.

she did really badly in the rurals/non-atlanta areas, even worse than clinton. if she’d maintained clinton’s margins she likely would have won

She brought a perpetual 6-8 point loss for Democrats in this state down to 1 point and this is with heaps of voter suppression at work. Yall just say anything. LOL.

This. There are quite a few seats in the Metro that could have flipped with a little bit more attention. She should just save her energy. Once this federal lawsuit plays out she will have a hook for her 2022 run against the architect of voter suppression in this state.

She turned out black voters heavy in the South Metro (Clayton, Henry, Rockdale, Newton), did pretty solid in Bibb, Muscogee, Chatham, and Richmond, got Latinos and Asians out huge in Gwinnett, ran it up with white progressives in Athens, Fulton, and DeKalb, and got some crossover voting from swingy/GOP-lite whites in Fayette, Cobb, Forsyth, and Cherokee. If you look at the results in counties like Oconee, Houston, and Columbia she obviously made inroads in these wealthy, white counties statewide. Will they flip? No. But she did pretty solid for a Democrat.

I'm also very bearish on Georgia. It's a really tough nut to crack, but it is definitely moving closer to being competitive for Democrats, albeit glacially. As such, it's worth a shot to have Abrams run and see if she has better luck this time. I wouldn't hold my breath, but she did about as well as she possibly could have in 2018, and it was actually a pretty great showing, all things considered.

Abrams should run in 2020.  This waiting for 4-6 years etc often means your time has passed & a new flavor comes along. Strike while the iron is hot.

Also 2020 is a Presidential race & will have strong turnout including among young people. When a Democrat beats Trump in 2020, turnout will be mediocre & will be low among young people.

I say she goes all in on 2020. She got it down to 1%. Half the people don't vote & this is a game of turnout. With strong turnout she can win. She is a phenomenal candidate. She can win & she should run !

Also Trump is @ the top of the ticket. If Dem have a good candidate, there is always a chance that Trump implodes !

If Abrams runs again in 2020, she will lose again. And then she will talk about having another "do-over".....

I think this might actually work, if there is enough of a surge of new Democratic voters from top ticket enthusiasm, GA could flip and do so in a way that doesn't allow for much ticket splitting.

Jon Ossoff considering. I'm sure that'll go great.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/421378-jon-ossoff-considering-2020-run-for-senate-in-georgia

She's back in Washington. Again. I think she's going to pull the trigger.

https://twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/1088143873266929665

He had his chance and he blew it (though it MOSTLY wasn't his fault that the race got nationalized in a way that really wasn't helpful for him).

I think Abrams is the best candidate to beat Perdue. She’s well-known from her gubernatorial run and turnout will be much higher among Democratic-leaning demographics than in 2018. Also, she could help the Democratic presidential candidate win Georgia in 2020.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/david-perdue-urging-trump-continue-wall-funding-push/UfP69GkBJxnoxqpwjHGOXI/

This mofo...

It's official. Stacey Abrams will deliver the response.

Is she the best candidate to win the seat? It may be risky for her, because if she loses, she's probably done and can't run for governor again in 2022.

Stacey Abrams reserved an ad for Fair Fight Action (her group pushing for electoral reform) to air during the Super Bowl. Will air in every GA market.

I mean, she'd probably have bad odds for winning in 2022 anyways — especially if Trump loses re-election — as rematches typically don't go well for the loser. She's better off striking while the iron's hot.

Abrams verbally acknowledged for the first time that she is considering the Senate seat during a Thank You Tour stop in Gwinnett County tonight.

https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/1095168617279352833

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1095114834612506624

Agreed. I think Perdue starts with an advantage, and this is a federal race. State elections, even in this polarizing time, are still somewhat less partisan than federal ones. And I think that Abrams's refusal to concede has probably cost her some goodwill among suburban voters.

What is with GA always getting these megathreads?

Or maybe people realize the election was rigged and these mythical white suburban voters angry about her lack of a concession are really actually angry about destroyed voter rolls?

Because we're a fascinating state, of course.

Your just being peachy :P

Because we have quite a few dedicated GA posters :)

Anyway, on topic, Abrams will lose spectacularly in 2020 because David Perdue has more of an established connection to suburban Republicans than Brian Kemp did in 2018, and Perdue can count on presidential turnout in a year where Trump will be on the ballot (as opposed to the more D-friendly demographics in 2018)

A rigged election.......Of course.

Several responses to Zaybay and no one mentions the word "DeleGAtion".

Suburban women will surely love Pushy Perdue who hid from sexual assault survivors in a bathroom

Uh...no. Trump being on the ballot doesn't help Purdue at all. The bottom is going to continue to fall out across the Metro. Abrams did worse than Hillary in red rural Georgia (where the GOP is maxed out and losing population) and still continued to close the deficit due to huge swings in the Metro. Not to mention voters under the age of 45 (where Abrams absolutely obliterated Kemp) will make up a larger share of the electorate than they did in 2018. This race is a toss up.

Yeah, seems like a lot of Republicans/Atlas posters are in denial about Georgia's rapid trend to the left. I really don’t buy that Perdue will significantly outperform Trump in places like Cobb or Gwinnett, and if he wins it won’t be with more than 51%. This race is a pure Toss-up and certainly more likely to flip than IA.

Considering how close Abrams came in 2018, she shouldn't be written off if the Democratic candidate seriously campaigns in Georgia in the presidential race.

This. GOP couldn’t break past 52% in a low turnout runoff for Public Service Comissioner. LOL. A high profile, highly nationalized race with a liberal stalwart like Abrams in the race? It’s going down to the last vote.

House Speaker Ralston knows what the deal is:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1095334627487563776

Raffensperger won Cobb and only lost Gwinnett by 1 and still only won by 4 points statewide, so that election was a rather daunting sign for the GA GOP. Even Abrams only lost by 1 statewide while doing several points worse than Clinton in rural GA.

There's no reason to think Perdue will not be able to improve on Kemp's performance in Metro ATL during 2020.  153k votes for Trump in Cobb in 2016, compared with 138k for Kemp in 2018.  Similar stories in Gwinnett, Fulton, Bartow, etc.  Trump being on the ballot will also bring out more deplorables in the exurbs and rural GA to vote for him, whereas Democratic-friendly turnout in 2018 means Abrams doesn't have a lot of room to grow in places where she was already running an impeccable turnout machine (Metro ATL).

Unless the Dem nominee is winning Georgia handily on election night, Perdue is winning.  He's an incumbent with suburban/ITP cred running against a loser retread.  It's incredibly hard to see Abrams winning while Trump wins as well, and I'd say Trump's odds of winning are still much better than even.   

Also, how do our "Red Georgia" hacks square the fact that  he has a 45% approval rating, whereas Kemp and Trump lag significantly behind that number (https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-shows-deeply-divided-georgia-and-tough-numbers-for-kemp/8dqIoXp1j5o0kujop427PN/)?  That's a function of Perdue's increased support in the Atlanta suburbs.

I really would prefer an Abrams rematch for Governor as opposed to this.

Anyway, Perdue's appeal is that he is basically Generic R. Of course he won't do as well as he did in 2014 in the metro (even Isakson's 2016 performance in some metro areas - despite winning statewide by 14 - should have been worrisome for the GAGOP), but he'll have to try to do worse than Kemp.

The conversation about how Abrams' post-election actions might hurt her with voters isn't concerning because it'd take Democrats or even long-term independents off the table for her, but rather, because the types who would be "offended" by that are the same people who voted Perdue/Deal/Isakson/Abrams. And GA's electorate is not exactly very likely to change much over the next year and a half - the midterm was basically a presidential (with ~95% of the 2016 turnout); a betting man would bank on the 2020 electorate along demographic lines looking very, very similar to 2018's.

Anyway, I think running a repeat election in GA against a far less offensive incumbent (who obviously has supporters who voted for you as well) two years out, in a more naturally polarized environment and under the same demographics (which means you're required to win many of those same former Republicans once again, who also have voted for your opponent) isn't the best idea and starts you off in a naturally worse position than in 2018.

Perdue is generic R. And that is his strength.

Why isn't Michelle Nunn getting any consideration?  Was she a bad candidate?

Michelle Nunn runs a humanitarian nonprofit now. I do not think she wants to leave her job. Also GA Dems have realized that nominating white moderates does not allow them to tap into the Atlanta vote as well. Nunn would be a good candidate, but Abrams is stronger. Also rematches usually end badly (See: WI 2016 (Russ Feingold's double digits lead evaporating and Feingold losing by 3 percentage points))

This is so cringe. These people are OBSESSED.

https://twitter.com/NRSC/status/1105142337511006208

This is so bad it's hilarious. Who is honestly paid to come up with these things?

At least the fact they put this out means NRSC is worried about facing her, no matter how bad that...clip song thing was.

I don’t know what’s worse: this garbage or Nancy had a little Lamb.

Cease and Desist Notice from Rockapella in 3, 2, 1...

ABC Family just picked this up for 13 episodes

This is awful, but Nancy had a little Lamb was objectively worse.

It's looking like Abrams might run for President instead. Ugh, we don't need more Presidential candidates. We need Senators.

I have to agree with this. At least this ad isn't downright painful to listen to, unlike Nancy had a little Lamb.

This is worse, at least Nancy had a little Lamb had good graphics, but the NRSC, should just air the Schumer-Abrams ads (Stacey Abrams is a vote for Chuck Schumer, NRSC is responsible for the content of this advertising) those will work better than this nonsense

It is a funny, but weird advertisement.

Period.

Abrams would probably be better off running for Senate than President or maybe even against Kemp in GA GOV 2022.

https://twitter.com/RElliotWSB/status/1105611043965943808

I'm ready for war. It's time to take Perdue DOWN.

Perdue is favored in this race. It is Lean R

Crossposting this from the REAL GEORGIA MEGATHREAD:

I'm cackling at the desperation.

Yeah, GOP ads are terrible, but this is better than Pete Hoekstra's Debbie SpendItNow, but that is a very low bar

Tomlinson had lunch with Schumer and co today

I'm ready for whoever! I miss canvassing. :P

Tomlinson filed for an exploratory campaign today. Said she and Abrams are still trying to figure it out but just wants to be able to pay people without running afoul of the FEC

I'd still prefer Abrams.

It looks like Abrams is out:

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1123065730071703552

Ugh. There goes a pick up opportunity.

Teresa Tomlinson is a perfectly fine candidate.

50-48 Perdue over Tomlinson

If runoff:

Trump wins WH: 50-49 Perdue over Tomlinson

Dem wins WH: 53-47 Perdue over Tomlinson

Boo. Officially Likely R rather than Lean R.

This really just took the air out of the balloon for me for 2020. The Dems are not taking back the Senate and everything they will debate and nitpick about in the primary is useless because McConnell will block everything.

Yes. Stacey Abrams really wants to protect voting rights, doesn't she? Well, in that case, the best way to do that is to join the US Senate and help pass HR 1.

Safe R, Dems are disadvantaged in run-off elections aside from LA, especiall Espy and Abrams

Thats odd, I remember scheduling the weekly "#Demsindisarray Panic" for this Friday.....

Well this sucks. Now we're going to get some boring centrist.

Who cares? No ratings change. Always has been Likely R, still is, and will remain dem fool's gold.

Looks like Teresa Tomlinson is running.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1123213030907531265

Agreed. Sad fact is, Abrams was going to get slimed with the "sore loser" thing, even though, IMO, it's totally unjustified. I only learned who Tomlinson was when I read her name here this morning, but from a quick Google Search, she seems inoffensive enough that Biden could pull her over the line if he's winning by a decent margin.

As long as Tomlinson knows how to campaign in the right places she has a good chance at winning. Just about every statewide race last year was close so it seems to me as if Democrats have built up a strong foundation to build upon moving forward.

While I’m disappointed that Abrams isn’t running, I think Tomlinson will be able to build off of the foundation the Abrams campaign built. There’s still a real race here, and Tomlinson has an opportunity to define herself and Perdue.

Georgia is Lean R.

Isakson will probably retire in 2022, Abrams could win then, or run in a rematch against Kemp.

DEMS IN DISARRAIETUGRWF(YUEIUTYSFGVEOPF{RRRRRRRRYDHJVBCNM<<K>L:"

Jason Carter needs to run.

Can I be upset that my favorite politician isn't running for 24 hours? LOL. Tomlinson is fine but there is a massive gap in "quality" when we start talking about turning out low propensity voters of color. Money that would have been spent here if Abrams ran could be redirected to a NC or an IA. Anyway I hope Tomlinson has a massive field program on the ground a year before voting starts the way Stacey did. She didn't endorse in the Gubernatorial primary but she definitely was on Abrams's side when it came to how this state was going to flip vs the Evans/Roy Barnes/Max Cleland wing of the party.

Classic Atlas #analysis with nothing to substantiate such ridiculous claims.

Tomlinson will be a solid candidate. It may help with a significant number of rural voters that's she's Mayor of Columbus and not from the 'big city' Atlanta. You could run any generic D in Georgia and get 47%...the problem is the runoff (by which I mean avoiding it).

I said this in the main Georgia thread that I thought Sarah Riggs Amico would join in with Abrams officially out.... she is going to tour GA for the next few weeks. Her initial pitch she clings to her run for Lt. Gov with Abrams.

https://twitter.com/SarahRiggsAmico/status/1123344434924589058

I really don't think the calculus regarding difficulty or feasibility of Democrats winning this seat changes all that much, but I know many do not agree with me. Both Abrams and Perdue (in 2014) won a less-than-meaningless chunk of the same voters, but I think her choosing to focus on 2022-GOV is probably the best bet for both her personal ambition and that of the party's - rightfully or otherwise, she managed to polarize an already polarized state (despite 2.5x the turnout of the runoff, Abrams lost by the same # of raw votes as Barrow/Miller, meaning she turned out 1 voter to oppose her for every 1 voter she turned out to support her), and a repeat election right after her previous one would not lead to a more favorable outcome in my view; how often has the opposite been true?

Perdue will be hard to beat, but if so many on Atlas are right about "muh inevitable suburbron shifts", then it's really not going to matter who is running for Senate so long as they're competent, right?

Tomlinson is who I'm betting on for now.

Classic Atlas #analysis with nothing to substantiate such ridiculous claims.

[/quote]

She is a B- tier candidate that barely did better than Clinton (and somehow even worse than her in rural areas hahahaha) against an awful GOP opponent in a dem wave year in a state shifting towards dems in a non-incumbent setting. She's nothing special, and people were fools for giving her much attention in the first place. We are losing out on nothing by her not running. Her or Amico, or Tomlinson, or Holcomb, or any other chump would lose by 3-8 points

https://twitter.com/BenJKest/status/1123352086111031297

She is a B- tier candidate that barely did better than Clinton (and somehow even worse than her in rural areas hahahaha) against an awful GOP opponent in a dem wave year in a state shifting towards dems in a non-incumbent setting. She's nothing special, and people were fools for giving her much attention in the first place. We are losing out on nothing by her not running. Her or Amico, or Tomlinson, or Holcomb, or any other chump would lose by 3-8 points
[/quote]

She did significantly better than Clinton, especially in the suburbs. Please don’t talk about things you know nothing about.

She did significantly better than Clinton, especially in the suburbs. Please don’t talk about things you know nothing about.
[/quote]

She did like 3-4 points better than Clinton in the state, and that was all in the suburbs, she did worse than Clinton in rural areas, pathetic! Absolute B- lister

Someone good like Stacey Evans would have beaten Kemp. Still held the same numbers everywhere, but do better in the rural areas to barely make it over the top. Abrams is a toxic fit for rural GA, did worse than Hillary there, sad!

Anybody who watched her hilariously bad campaign in the primary knows this is patently false.

Ever heard of something called turnout?

Abrams had damaged herself significantly first with her conspiratorial assertion that she actually won the election. And then by going so national in liberal circles and shedding any kind of bipartisan image she was trying to sell in '18. People also forget she carried quite a bit of baggage as a candidate I still don't think her financial issues didn't not end up mattering, may have turned off white college educateds.

Yeah, I dont think any of this stuff is really true. If voters dont factor in the longest government shutdown into their judgement 2 weeks after it ends, no one is going to remember that Abrams made "conspiratorial assertions" or "shed any kind of bipartisan image(?)".

Sure, maybe she would have done ~5% better than Abrams in rural areas... and black, Hisapnic, and college educated white turnout would have plummeted too.

She never said she won, what she meant was it was a moral victory. But considering who was running the Secretary of State's office there was a lot done ahead of time to tip the scales in his own favor.

Educateds is not a word. If you are going to talk down about someone you can at least use real words while doing it.

It was not a conspiracy. She has filed a federal lawsuit that lays out the case that there was rampant voter suppression that affected voters statewide. Enough voters that would have affected the outcome of the election I might add. Like she said in her speech ending her campaign she could have challenged the entire election but did not want an office if she had to scheme her way into it. When she says she won she means because she irrevocably changed Georgia's electorate (which she did).

White college educated voters swung hard to her so the rest of your post is false.

Tomlinson Officially IN:

https://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/politics-government/article229865689.html


Tilt R, Perdue 50-48 in runoff

In the runoff, there are only two candidates. Perdue could win 51-49 there, but not 50-48, because there'd be no one to get the 2% of third-party votes.

There is always the chance of blank/spoiled ballots, also using rounding

Lol ok bro

In browsing the GA-SEN 2020 page on Wikipedia, I did find a March 2019 poll on the 2020 race, but it's a DSCC-sponsored poll, and they didn't test Purdue vs. Generic D or any combination of Tomlinson/Ossoff/Amico, but Generic R vs. Generic D: 42 D-40 R. Not horrible but I don't see that as very meaningful right now.

Purdue does have good net favorability (41/30, so +9,) but a lot of undecideds (29%). That does track with other polling specifically on Purdue's favorability or approval: liked but also kind of unknown.

They tested Trump favorability (46/52 for all voters, 37/51 among independents) but not approval.

There will be very few of these.  Overvotes for the same race are prevented by the voting machine, I believe.  And blank entries will be minimal with this being the major race (and possibly the only one) on a runoff ballot.

It looks like Stacey Abrams is too busy deluding herself that she is actually governor of Georgia to run for this seat, Likely R

I think we dodged a bullet with Abrams frankly.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1124376293900980230

You assemble a room of 20 black women and they will agree with exactly what she said. Brian Kemp with the help of Republican operatives in local county election offices cheated. I love how uncomfortable Abrams makes people who want to pretend that America is above tinkering with democracy as if black people and Native Americans weren't restricted from voting fifty damn years ago.

Anyway, this isn't Iowa. She doesn't need to tow a line so she doesn't scare away weak-kneed white people who have rose colored glasses on about voter suppression. She has a hefty 40% non-white electorate and progressive whites that she can turn out and a growing share of suburban whites. She has said nothing as incendiary as Donald Trump and everything she says can be backed up with facts.

We need fair elections in Georgia. Change only comes when we have uncomfortable conversations. 

I hope the primary doesn't get too crowded. Tomlinson has been able to scoop up the good people and quite frankly the eventual nom needs to hoard as much cash as possible given this is very likely headed to a runoff

If I were Amico or Ossoff I would just wait until 2022. If Trump is re-elected the dam will burst open in GA in 2022. If Trump loses, GA is inelastic enough to avoid DemPOTUS backlash and they will have Abrams on the ballot with them.

This kind of delusion is unhealthy, there is no proof whatsoever that there were thousands of minority voters who were barred from voting during the 2018 election (in fact that election broke turnout records)

I don't even think Abrams is dumb enough to think she actually won, she is using this whole scheme as a way to raise money from some very gullible people (Just like the Florida recounts last year or Jill Stein's recounts in 2016)

So.... since I actually live here and was working the voter protection hotline on Election Day when power cords for the machines were missing at the blackest precincts in Gwinnett County causing four hour lines where people had to leave to go to work, where precincts in Fulton County where Abrams was running up the score with 95-99 percent of the vote ran out of provisional ballots so everyone who wanted one was told to go home, where Asian and Latino absentee ballots were rejected in Gwinnett County at 10x the rate of everyone else. I will believe MY EXPERIENCE before your narrative when you don’t even live here.

There are 6.4 million people on the rolls. 4.1 million of them voting doesn’t mean there wasn’t voter suppression.

Abrams saying she won is metaphorical. She irrevocably changed Georgia’s electorate. She recognizes Brian Kemp received a sufficient number of votes to become Governor. The election just wasn’t fair. It’s funny watching people who make excuses for every incendiary and heinous thing Trump says all of a sudden want to take everyone else’s words literally. ::)

Jesus mad respect for this post I know we've had our disagreements in the past but that was amazing

Does anyone think Jason Carter would have beaten Kemp here? I think he may have.

I agree Evans most likely wouldn't have though (and that Abrams was a stonger candidate than Evans).

Ok maybe not Evans, but I think Barrow would have beaten Kemp.

Georgia senator says he's not worried about his state losing film business over abortion ban


https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/us/georgia-senator-abortion-ban-film-business-trnd/index.html

Right. Because the white people from California and the working class black people who benefit from the industry do not vote Republican. The GOP is garbage.

I mentioned in the other thread that I heard Tomlinson today. I definitely considered her the best of the "second tier" but she is really freaking good. A candidate on par with Stacey Abrams. She answered every question directly and didn't try to squirm out of anything. I'm all in.

You think she can organize like Abrams?

Don't know how she'll be received by the population at large but she is definitely emphasizing direct voter contact at the doors like Abrams did vs a barrage of tv ads leading up to the primary like Evans.

Perdue definitely is open season for attack ad fodder. The man is a gaffe master 

Didn't he knock somebody's phone out of their hand or something? And lead a prayer asking for Obama's death and for his children to be homeless? Just ugh at the fact that at least 48 percent of our population will vote for this jackass no matter what.

GA-SEN is a Tossup.

Perdue is a crazy man, like his cousin Gov. Sonny.

Can Tomlinson appeal to WWC in Georgia?

No, and she doesn't need to.

She has to be a Senator for all Georgians, not her base. She should try to bridge the gap. She does come from western Georgia.

She should at least try to swing the rural vote 2-3%.  That could make the difference between a bare bones victory and a runoff, which she'd likely lose if a Democrat ousts Trump.

The gap can't be bridged. rural whites in Georgia are EXTREMELY Republican. it's not worth even trying to appeal to them.

He did both. He was at an event at Tech for Kemp this fall and one of the students asked him a question about voter suppression and he snatched his phone. The guy was suing him but I’d assume he gave him what he wanted to end it bc he doesn’t need that following him.

These people rejected Abrams like 95-5. I never hear these posters ask the GOP to be a Senator for black people and white liberals. She will be a Senator for all Georgians when she votes to expand Medicare and fights for restoring preclearance to the Voting Rights Act. Just because rural whites will refuse to support her because of white resentment politics doesn't mean she isn't serving their interests.

She will cross 50 percent by turning out the base, getting out low propensity voters of color in the Metro and South Suburbs, and continuing to make inroads with educated white women in the North Suburbs. Next.

I really hope Amico doesn't jump in

Same. I hope Teresa Tomlinson gets the primary field to herself. Because she really needs it.

It’s almost guaranteed to go to a run off in the GE so I’d really prefer for Tomlinson to be able to hoard as much cash as possible.

For the potential to be a wave election, Tomlinson, can win here.

Sarah Amico pretty much confirmed on her Instagram that she's running.

Please don't. Tomlinson is good enough.

Stacy Abrams blew her chance, with Dems big lead on generic ballot, even GA is in play. I doubt if she beats Kemp in 2022

Not happy about it tbh. Tomlinson needs to hoard as much money as she possibly can

I want everyone else to leave and Jason Carter to enter. He would be a very strong candidate.

I don't buy that Jason Carter is particularly stronger than either Tomlinson or even Amico.

GA isnt the tipping point race. MI, CO and AZ and 2 from NC/AL/ME/ or IA will get Dens the 50th seat

Georgia is inelastic fool’s gold, take a hint people, we shouldn’t even contest it big time.

I sort of agree (the Democrats lost every row office in a D+9 midterm lmfao), but Atlas is convinced Abrams' performance is the Democratic floor and the state GOP is dead.

MT Treasurer, ON Progressive and RFKFan68 will rage at you, though.

And no, Georgia won't vote to the left of Maine.

This is some incredibly dumb analysis. the Atlanta suburbs are growing and getting bluer at a rapid rate, if the Democratic Senate candidate can do as well as Abrams did in 2018 in 2020, they can win based on population growth and higher turnout alone.

Inelastic whites in the midwest shifting to Democrats has nothing to do with the results in a racially polarized state like GA (where the electorate was more GOP than 2016). But keep living in fantasy land.

Dude if Abrams could not win in GA you have me lost, let’s just really hope the dscc agrees with me

I believe the people who are here on the ground over you.

Lol ok then, go waste your time for Amico or whoever to no avail then, have fun.

Being a D+9 midterm doesn't actually matter in a state like Georgia because it's inelastic nature makes it difficult to move with the national environment, as opposed to states like Iowa that do move heavily with the national environment.

OMG losing one election doesn't mean you're out for good.

Any bets on Tomlinson’s numbers for the quarter?

Democrats are not going to win GA in 2020, and it will be bittersweet because obviously I want them to but like it’ll be funny to come back here and all these other threads to laugh just like last time.

It's fine to disagree with others on the Democrats' chances in this race or any other race particularly when there's literally no path for them to be successful. What isn't fine is to concern troll and act as if your opinion is right when there literally is a path for a Democrat to win Georgia if cards are played right.

The point is that it's still early and it's foolish to be calling a race that is likely a tossup off because it's apparently your favorite thing to do.

I wouldn't call Georgia a tossup.

Sometimes it’s okay to run and come up short to keep building infrastructure but whatevs

I will never call GA a tossup in non-Pres races because of the run-off. But Tomlinson can win and GA-PRES 2020 is a tossup (no one has to win 50 percent to get the electoral votes).

Well maybe Lean R for other statewide races thanks to the runoff as RFK stated, but still at least quite competitive.

Fortunately for you, even the DSCC probably isn’t incompetent enough to give up on a likely tipping point Senate race.

I mean, give the extra 2 years of demographic changes from 2018 to 2020, and Georgia probably becomes a Democratic tilting state.

Dems dont need GA, and its a run-off, now that KS, with Barry Grissom is running

Georgia is an uphill battle, but doable in a good enough environment for Democrats. In Kansas, we would need literally everything to go right to have a chance.

I wish Abrams would reconsider. Kansas is only winnable if Kobach is the nominee.

We need Abrams for GA-Gov if we have a Dem president. No one else will rev up our voters to kick Kemp out.

She needs to challange Cheatin' Brian again. Queen Teresa is an excellent candidate.

Tomlinson raises $520k, $330k COH

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/tomlinson-raises-500k-first-senate-fundraising-test/P17IOpugcIUmVhH7pa0TON/

I presume numbers like this aren't going to scare off other people from jumping in. I hear Sarah Riggs Amico is looking for a finance director as we speak.

That’s not terrible but not great either. Especially saying she’s only really been running for about six weeks.

Any thoughts on why her numbers aren't great?  She seems like a good candidate in a pivotal state, so why not a seven-figure fundraising haul?

She filed the first week of April but didn't really start until the middle of May so she was only in for about half the quarter.

Gideon in ME raised 1M in one week in a small state.
Greenfield in IA raised 600K in four weeks in a small state.

Fair point but in the former's case, Perdue ain't no Collins. He's a piece of sh**t no doubt but at least he's never pretended to be a woke moderate. I doubt as many people know "Obama, die!" guy as they do "I believe she was assaulted but it wasn't this guy because he told me" lady.

Perdue raised 1.9 M in Q2.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/david-perdue-raises-nearly-more-for-election-bid/vN7c7gPouu9tuIkJpgItnO/

That’s not actually all that good

Never say never to that.

I have little doubt even the one they call Bottoms could defeat Kemp under the right circumstances.

What’s annoying is that Jaime Harrison raised $1.5 million in South Carolina and he will not win. “Woke” liberals in DC, NYC, and California need to stop donating off of emotion (hating Lindsey Graham because he is a high profile Trump sycophant) and be strategic.

Graham is beatable if luck is on our side.

SC is only getting whiter, it's not flipping

This annoys me too.  Tomlinson and Cunningham are potentially competitve candidates who desperately need more money, and instead it's being flushed down the toilet in South Carolina. 

To be honest, I feel that the Democratic Senate recruitment so far this cycle has been very weak across the board. Hegar in Texas is quite strong, but outside of that, I feel that in most races, all of the strongest potential candidates are sitting out.

I dunno.  On a state-by-state basis, things don't seem so bad.  It's still unclear who will be the nominee in Colorado, and while Hickenlooper would have put that contest away as soon as he announced, whatever Democrat does emerge out of Colorado will probably be a better Senator.  Hick taking a pass has turned Colorado into a resource pit, but it will probably be worth it ideologically in the end.  Arizona has a top-tier candidate in Mark Kelly, and Sara Gideon is a good get in Maine.  And while Tonlinson and Cunningham don't have the same name recognition as Abrams or (who's the Abrams of NC?), Tomlinson and Cunningham both have their merits and have few obvious drawbacks biographically.  In fact, whilte it's heresy around these parts, I kind of think Tomlinson is a better candidate than Abrams would be.  She's well poised to reap the benefits of Abrams's organizing in the Atlanta suburbs, and is probably more palatable to Georgia voters outside the Atlanta region.  But I'm from the Columbus area, so I'm a little biased. 

Jeff Jackson?

The streets are saying that Ted Terry, the mayor of Clarkston is jumping in.

Is he formidable candidate or will Teresa Thomlinson maintain her status as Democratic frontrunner? I think she's a very good candidate.

Not worried about him. But he is on the Executive Committee for our state's Democratic Party so he isn't a nobody in Dem circles.

They were saying on the radio today that Perdue admits his fate is intertwined with Trump’s

Ted Terry is in!

Website is live: https://tedforgeorgia.com/

()

Oh my God, it’s the guy from queer eye! And he uses some pictures with Jonathan from the show on his website!

Endorsed!

this  guy looks cool but he would be smacked in a general, not to mention the primary

Looks like he could certainly have the young white guy breakout potential like Beto or Kander, will be interesting to see if he generates buzz.

He's not beatable unless a sex tape is leaked showing him having sex with another man.

You have strange fantasies.

I can see this, but didn't happen at launch..... He may have a real moment though at some point.



Also, love when people just take random guesses at an election that's over 400 days away.

He will have to create a moment. The media and Dem activists would rather we spend time focusing on Solid R SC & KY bc of who the incumbents are. I can definitely see him having a Beto type run but IDK... I'm still going w/ Tomlinson at this point. He hasn't convinced me to vote against her.

If you think I fantasize about Lindsey Graham's sex life, you're even more insane than I thought. I wouldn't have sex with him for all the money in the world.

The whole "Lindsey Graham is gay" thing has been around for a while dude, he sets off like 90% of all gaydars

Teresa Tomlinson's rural constituency director sent this stupid ass tweet. #TeamAbrams swooped in to correct the record.

()

Uh... all Dems going forward better realize Abrams has set the standard for the next generation. You can't run on "not ignoring communities Democrats have abandoned" when Abrams did it all and then some! In my opinion, rural South GA took precedence over Metro Atlanta in her campaign and that's not a criticism. That's how passionate she was about engaging those voters.

Why do you think she did so bad in these areas then (worse than Hillary!)

Off topic but love your sig dude haha

Wasn't Sarah Riggs Amico supposed to jump in weeks if not months ago?

UGHHH, anyone but her.

She was "exploring" a bid.  I guess she hasn't found it yet.

Tomlinson has my vote secured.

https://twitter.com/kjhayes17/status/1158346383763660803

Terry isn't actively bad it seems, though it's a bit worrying how he uses the 'have a conversation' vague answer, but good on Tomlinson for her position here-she is absolutely right.

If I still lived in Georgia, I'd say the same.  Many in my extended family will vote for her, though.

I was always leaning Tomlinson but this secures it for me

https://twitter.com/BenjaminAmis/status/1160972594813816833

“Ga iS lIkeLy R!”

“AbRaMs cOuLdNt wIn iN a D+9 yEaR!”

GA GOP is also launching a voter registration effort for 2020. They have NEVER attempted to expand the electorate. Just rile up high propensity Dixiecrats in rural GA. They are running out of voters to entice with racist dogwhistles.

So just to be clear when Dems launch voter registration drives they are ‘gearing up’ or ‘running a smart campaign’ but when Rs do it they are in disarray and running scared?

Obviously GA is trending D but it is silly to think that the GOP launching a voter registration drive in a Lean R state indicates good news for Democrats. It means the GOP is taking the race seriously, which is a bad thing if you’re a Dem. it is hardly a death knell obviously but the double standard on how political campaigning is conducted and advertised on this forum is kind of silly.

In the state of Georgia, yes.

Amico in.

https://twitter.com/SarahRiggsAmico/status/1166320550987337731

Horrible candidate. If she wins the nomination, this race is Likely R.

You're talking to a guy who thinks Stace Abrams is the rightful governor of Georgia, he doesn't have a very strong grip on reality

He's discounting also the fact that none of the Democratic candidates running thus far seem to be particularly impressive, and that 2020 will not be as strongly a Democratic-leaning year as 2018 was. Georgia is indeed continuing to trend Democratic, but it will take a few more election cycles for these trends to reach full fruition.

That has never come out of my mouth nor have I ever typed that. You need a grip.

Be careful, for some D posters on this forum contesting the fact that Stacey Abrams is the rightful governor of GA makes you a white supremacist

I don't recall anyone on this board posting that anyone was a white supremacist for not saying that Stacey Abrams is the Governor of Georgia. I don't recall anyone on this board actually saying that she is the Governor, only that she could have been Governor if not for voter purges.

Now, I would admit that Abrams probably would be the best Democratic candidate for this seat, as she would energize minority turnout, like she did in 2018, and run a vigorous campaign. However, she couldn't seal the deal in the Democratic-friendly year of 2018, and in 2020, Republican turnout will be higher, as Trump will be on the ballot. The Atlanta area does not yet possess the margins or the votes to cancel out the edge Republicans derive from the state's small towns and rural areas. That might be different by 2022 or 2024, but 2020 is too soon.

Put up or shut up my man

Isakson’s retiring at Christmas break. Means we’ll have two elections next year

Who will Kemp appoint? All the congressmen are back benchers and he needs to appoint someone from Atlanta, which doesn’t have many GOP congressmen that he could appoint rn anyway with Handel having lost and Woodall retiring. (Perdue is already from South Georgia which is why Atlanta is important).

Smart thing to do would be to appoint a popular figure of the past like Deal who wouldn't run in the special, so that the eventual candidate won't have a "voted with Trump x% of the time" vulnerability.

If the bottom falls out for Republicans next year, 2 seats in Georgia, and flipping AZ and CO would do it. But if we’re gaining Ga, we’re probably also gaining NC and ME as well

The Senate special election now makes it even more crucial for Democrats to target Georgia, as the fate of the Senate would depend heavily on these seats.

Yes, AZ, CO and GA are the seats that will flip the Senate

Not happening. The special election will be a jungle primary on Election Night. Last thing GOP wants is a bunch of people throwing it to the Democrat.

What about Loudermilk? He's young and from the north - represents a good chunk of Cobb.

Can Kemp appoint Woodal?

I wouldn't be surprised.  It'd give him a cushier job, and if he wins, he gets 2 more years in DC.

Guess who’s back, back again? Ossoff’s back, tell a friend.

Called it!

Please vote in a forum poll on whether Georgia should have 1 or 2 megathreads.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=332294.0

Jason Carter seems to be interested, or at least not ruling it out.

Bad candidate

John Ossoff would probably lose, he had a much easier shot at the 6th District than McBath, who was basically written off, for much of the campaign, did

Ossoff losing, might tell us that McBath was strong, and she was no doubt, but it also tells us that Ossoff was a weak candidate and would probably lose this seat

2017 was a special election year without dat wave energy and the GOP regrouped to stop low turnout doing them in at the runoff, which was gonna happen anyway.

Yea the Democrats would be foolish to not go all out for GA now, President on down the ticket.

I could see Jason Carter doing it. He was pretty competitive in '14 against Kemp.Deal.

You mean Deal?

Not if he's running the same strategy as he did in 2014.

The same strategy that brought GA to a poultry R+8 in an R favored midterm(R+6) against a rather well liked incumbent?

Yes, my mistake.

My only concern is that the runoff is after the Presidential election. So if Trump loses, I'm concerned Democrats will get complacent even if the Senate is still up in the air.

Uh... yeah. His performance had more to do with black GA voters not dropping off in midterms as bad as other states. Nothing to do with him. He and Nunn were bland retreads that targeted white Republicans. He did nothing to grow the party infrastructure and bring new voices into the electorate. No thanks.

Andrew Young endorses Tomlinson. (https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-andrew-young-endorses-teresa-tomlinson-senate-race/Cv0ZGK6X8ql1P5EVWVaq3N/)

The real HR king

The state has an embarrassment of riches in the Democratic talent pool but I'm voting for Tomlinson. I like Terry but he's just too young imo, Perdue plays nasty.

Tomlinson has a spine of steel and will dismantle Perdue. Terry has a lot of policy deficits. He was asked several things at a town hall and didn’t have an answer. I’ve never seen Tomlinson so much as flinch. She’s been preparing for this since before Abrams had the performance she had in 2018 unlike Terry and Amico. I trust her.

Agreed. Terry has all the time in the world to work on getting where he needs to go. There’s no young, talented Rs in the state anymore either since the two state reps lost last year which helps him even more. There’s a time for and a place for everyone and this just isn’t his time.

I'm not sure if Georgia is ready for such a staunch progressive like Terry. Too radical for his state, at least at the present time.

Ok, WTF is this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1170607758762102784

F Jon and and screwjon is appropriate.

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1171242429468631040

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1171241883995127811

He will not be facing Handel again. Wonder why he choose to go against Teresa Tomlinson instead of thee open seat...perhaps Mcbath is entering? Also, Ossoff gets John Lewis's endorsement.

Still with Tomlinson!

Ossoff is unremarkable.

Ideally McBath runs for the open seat and a POC is the nominee against Perdue then Dems could really juice turnout. I just feel like Dems are gonna give up on beating Perdue and just go for the open seat which is a lot easier.

If Perdue wins reelection, Democrats will not win the open seat. I just cannot envision that many Perdue-McBath (?) voters.

That would be very dumb of them considering how polarized Georgia is.

Huh? Nobody even knows who Perdue is. Voters are going to vote according to their tribe regardless of who the person is in either race. Next.

Lol Jon Ossoff

I am still for Tominlson and McBath. People like Terry and Ossoff remind me too much of the pretty all American boy candidate that Democrats run all the time like Murphy, Beto, and Kander but they always come up short. Yet they always seem to fail upward after losing an election.

Biden, now Ossoff... Dems are trying as hard as they can to make people not want to vote for them even in the Trump era.

I mean, if Ossoff somehow outperformed the Democratic presidential nominee by as much as O'Rourke or Kander, he’d be guaranteed to win the general. Obviously he won’t, but just saying.

How? Unlike Kander and Beto, he isn't inspiring or particularly charismatic. People on this site and in the political media only became obsessed with him because election-wise, the GA-6 Special was the only thing going on for a few months in 2017.

How I feel....

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1171265055788273666

That is my thought too, perhaps McBath has privately indicated she is running for the special election. I imagine she’d clear the field, which would explain why Ossoff is in for the regular election against Perdue. Otherwise I feel like Ossoff would run in the special election.

Ossoff is really showing he’s learned from 2017 by nationalizing yet another race and announcing a run for Georgia Senate in a NYC tv studio... lol. The left never learns.

LOL at Ossoff.

Hope he doesn't make it to the GE after he blew a winnable race last time.

Ossoff performed as Generic D in 2017. Wouldn’t we expect him to do the same in 2020?

Buh Ossoff! Go Queen Teresa <3 She's the senate candidate for 2020 I'm most excited about besides the Hick.

Tomlinson is now endorsed by former Governor Roy Barnes.

https://twitter.com/teresatomlinson/status/1171377912785883136

Lol Ossoff

Atlas is a fickle mistress. Some of us remember all the President Ossoff hype.

Rep. Hank Johnson (D) has endorsed Ossoff:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1176105908209893378

Ew at them endorsing someone who has done little to nothing for Georgia citizens for such an important job.

Anyway this article eviscerates Ossoff:

https://twitter.com/lkherman/status/1176099506817048576

Why are the Atlanta reps endorsing Ossoff?

Really can't agree with that op-ed more. Ossoff and O'Rourke both let their close races get to their heads and have now jumped in over their heads. They should take the hit to their egos and work on registering voters and such bc that's what their states really need.

O'Rourke had a decent reason but Ossoff doesn't.

What reason does a three term former congressman whose claim to fame is losing a senate race by 3 points have to run for President?

Well I’m writing off this seat if we nominate Ossoff

He was like leading in the polls and being in the top 5.

See Atlas is being Atlas and deciding that someone will lose no matter what.  Don't change bros, don't change.

Please don’t assume my gender

Counting on Tomlinson building a firewall in all of the counties below the fall line and stay very competitive in the non-white parts of metro Atlanta. Ossoff and Terry’s bases seem like they will be very white (Ossoff with older suburban white women/Terry with socialist bros) and Amico is irrelevant.

That's still not a good reason lol

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1179093872233738240

$1.3 million COH.

Still think he is a Fyre Festival candidate. He is not appealing to rural black folks in South Georgia at all.

Anybody want to speculate on Tomlinson's fundraising numbers?  What does she need to bring in to stay competitive?

That's actually more than I expected.  Good to see some real money start to flow in the state.

I am increasingly anxious about Teresa Tomlinson's campaign.


https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-ralph-reed-his-new-book-and-fear-christian-disaster-northern-syria/1F1pnRWPt1f2uTuaZL0c8M/ (https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-ralph-reed-his-new-book-and-fear-christian-disaster-northern-syria/1F1pnRWPt1f2uTuaZL0c8M/)

Yeah, I'm supporting Ossoff now. He can probably raise way more money than Tomlinson. I still wish Abrams would step in and save us.

>800k $ (probably)

This race is not really competitive anyway. The path to a D senate majority is CO<AZ<ME<NC

It definitely is competitive, and the state has two senate elections anyway.

But yep, this is seat #51/#52, not #50.

Both GA sen races are as much competitive than MN sen or NH sen races, on the paper it looks competitive and it could be close, but it’s not really competitive.

Once again, this individual who doesn't even live in the United States, does not know the situation on the ground in Georgia.

Both Senate seats are "Lean R" and only because of the run-off rule. The dam might bust and Dems head straight over 50 percent without ever looking back.

The eventual nominee is going to get a lot of money. The election is over a year out. Go to Cuthbert, Albany, Bainbridge, Jesup, or Brunswick GA and no one would know who the hell Jon Ossoff is and what he stands for.

Ossoff ain't it. Perdue wants to run against him. Tomlinson is tough and intelligent and will skewer him.

I'm from Cairo, just down the road from Albany and Bainbridge.  My (big) extended family is still down there.  I can confirm this is true. 

I'm 75% sure that the DSCC will endorse Ossoff because #moneywins is Chuck Schumer's stratagy. Also, what is Riggs Amico doing so far?

You love personal attacks ! Really, is it the only argument you have ? mUh, hE iS fRencH, hE doEsN’t LiVe oN tHe gRounD, bAd.

By the way your argument is stupid, I mean if some conservative dude who happen to live in MI tell you’’Trump will win MI in a landslide, because I live here, and all my friends support him.’’ Does it make Trump favoured to win MI ? No, of course. Because the friendship circle of this guy is not representative of the MI electorate. It’s the same thing for your argument, what your are seeing on the ground, the way your friends behave from a political perspective doesn’t make GA a swing state (at least not yet) because the place where you’re living and the people you encounter are not necessarily representative of the GA electorate.

Stating that you don't live in America (which is true) is a personal attack? K.

And I'm not just some dude making statements about who my friends voted for. My opinions are based in data, reason, and logic. Like I said, you're not here and you don't know the work being done from the state level down to the precinct level to make sure this state goes blue. You don't know what rooms I've sat in having these discussions and who was in them. LOL. GA is very competitive and I'll be here on Election Night 2020 helping you pick your jaw off the floor when both Senate seats go Democratic.

The problem is that your are not giving counter arguments, you’re simply saying : you’re French, you’re not on the ground, so shut up, I know better than anyone else.

Based on datas ? Yeah, like the fact that democrats failed to win even one statewide election since 2002 (and failed miserably again last year despite a D+8 year and massive investments)

When both seats go Democratic ? Yeah, it will be beautiful to see : Senator Ossoff and Senator Tomlinson joining Governor Abrams in the alternative universe of a blue GA

GA's electorate is growing more non-white and these voters overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates (they voted 85-14 for the Democratic nominee for Governor) they were 40 percent of the electorate in 2018 and by all estimations will be 42 percent of the electorate in 2020. Not to mention the fact that Republicans are maxed out in rural GA and Trump is likely to do worse than Kemp in Metro Atlanta.

There.

Trump is not going to win the state by more than 2 points. It's not Likely R and neither are the Senate seats.

Dude, you've been told this a million times and still won't get it through your thick skull, GA is an inelastic, racially polarized state. You can't use a D+8 national environment to explain anything. The state is on the cusp of being majority-minority and college-educated millennials are becoming a bigger piece of the pie with each passing election, it's only a matter of time before the dam bursts. It could be next year, could be '22 but it's a ticking time bomb.

Okay

- Minorities represent a rising share of the electorate, it’s a fact, yeah. Now, it’s not unconceivable to imagine Trump doing a bit better among non white voters than Kemp, let’s say 17% rather than 15%.

- Every election cycle democrats think that they have hit the bottom in rural areas and that their numbers can only go up. That’s what they thought after 2012 (remember the Clinton will be competitive in the rural south again because she is not black). That’s also what they thought after 2016. And look, Kemp did even better than Trump in rural GA.

- It’s possible that Trump will do worse than Kemp is some suburbs (Cobb County for example) ; but on the other hand Kemp was not a very good fit for white college educated voters, so don’t expect a big drop off either.
(By the way I doubt that Warren would be very popular in Buckhead)

Yeah, on the longer term GA will be a problem, at least if republicans don’t improve their numbers with minorities.

Yikes!

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1184128870737502210

Good for McBath!  Terry should stop wasting everyone's time. Now where are those Tomlinson numbers?

Yeah, this looks like a primary between Tomlinson and Ossoff.

Sad to see Georgia slipping into a red Hell like Virginia before it. How long before they elect a communist Lenin wannabe like Abrams as governor or senator? Who knows, but I don't think it will happen in 2020. All I know is that if I lived there, I'd be getting the hell out when it does happen and the state becomes Illinois 2.0.

Just wait until me and my family and friends move there (a growing possibility by the day). It'll be +9 D votes. :-)

Man you make it all sound so much cooler than it actually is

I'm worried about political refugees flooding our state in 20-25 years. Sensible people will have little recourse but to flee once it's been controlled by ANC-style communists for a few election cycles.

()

Currently trying to get my friend (she’s an Emory student) to convince her family to move here. LOL. They’re Ethiopian. Have really tried to sell them on the immense diversity in Metro Atlanta. California is getting to expensive for them.

Oh and #TeamTomlinson

https://twitter.com/teresatomlinson/status/1184153285701394433

I was hoping she'd pass the $1 million mark, but that's still a respectable haul. She probably would have brought in more if not for Osoff's entry into the race.

I didn't believe it until I recently visited the state. My friend, who has been living there for 5 years or so, has nothing but great things to say about the ATL area.

Personally, I loved Athens as well.

Hang on.  That $925k total--is that just this quarter, or this and last together?

Go Queen Teresa <3

Ossoff would be a weaker general election candidate, like he blew GA-06 with allowing the Republicans to define him as out-of-touch Hollywood liberal and Pelosi puppet.

I didn't watch the video in the tweet until now, after watching the video. She definitely said this was money raised "to date".

Kind of "Yikes!" for me, but not as bad as Terry. And Amico probably self-funded a lot of her haul *no way in hell she raised $700k with how little known she is and how quiet she's been since getting in* ; Ossoff is nationally known so her total is just reflective of how the Resistance isn't taking GA seriously because Perdue is not as known or polarizing as the Turtle and Lindsey Graham. Still believe she will win the nomination!

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1184167785808760838

She is lying, she raised only 400k in Q3.

$925k = Q3 + Q2

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1184167785808760838?s=20

Yeah almost no one who lives in Atlanta will ever want to live in your hellhole of a state.

She was spinning, not lying, that's what Trump and Perdue do.

Lol. #DoubleStandard

My family is literally white flight from the Atlanta metro area. Yes, people will want to leave.

Yikes, I take back the nice things I said earlier.  If she's gone two quarters and hasn't yet gotten to $1 million, that's terrible. I still think she'd be a better candidate than Osoff and I'll keep making my monthly donation, but Tomlinson has got to start bringing in more money.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1184211289461137408

I agree. We'll see. Her entire senior staff is comprised of black women, and from what I've heard that's the primary demographic they're targeting. Notice many of her primary endorsements save Roy Barnes have come from black civil rights leaders and black mayors of cities south of the Fall Line. Ossoff is a Fyre Festival candidate coasting on his name rec and email list from 2017.

And yet https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-senate-ossoff-lands-endorsements-from-black-officials/pRarbApEkqVGRrNolKWxjP/ (https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-senate-ossoff-lands-endorsements-from-black-officials/pRarbApEkqVGRrNolKWxjP/)

And that's wonderful for him. I didn't say Ossoff was hurting for black endorsements I said that black women, especially those downstate, are what Tomlinson's team plan to court the hardest. My comment on Ossoff was about his thin resume and only being relevant because of 2017. His endorsements from Lewis and Johnson were solely about superficial reasons like name rec and fundraising (which is fine, primaries are about putting forth who you think is most competitive), but there's nothing in his background that he can tout to black voters about why they should vote for him.

Don't get me wrong. I think Osoff is a joke and on paper Tomlinson should be wiping the floor with him. But her campaign is just not doing what it needs to do, which sucks because I really like her. There's still time to turn things around, but if it doesn't happen soon she may as well start planning her 2022 Lieutenant Governor run.

We are definitely on the same page! I am hosting a fundraiser for her next month and plan on canvassing every weekend once those opportunities become available.

I'm glad the money is starting to flow in Georgia, but I wish it weren't flowing to a lightweight like Ossoff.

I don't even know about this.

If Ossoff has 1.3M CoH with a relatively "soft launch" and it's taken Tomlinson 5 months to get to 950k raised..... what can Ossoff do by March 2020? Another 2M raised? Does that take Tomlinson out of the race?

Money doesn’t vote.

If it did Cagle would have steamrolled folks in the GOP Gubernatorial Primary and probably be Governor. But it doesn’t and he’s not.

Ossoff is formidable but Resistance Twitter is not going to buy him the nomination.

I'm a confused as to how Ossoff consistently is able to raise such huge amounts of cash.

Let's ask Beto O'Rourke how successful running for a higher office is after you lose a race for a lower one.

Same.  At the same time, the 2017 special was high profile and helped build his donor list, his base is in the wealthy Atlanta suburbs, and the John Lewis endorsement is a huge signal of establishment support.

His experience includes service on of the Board of Trustees for the @dscc and as a member of the Nat’l  Finance Committee for @BarackObama, as well as serving in his Administration in Washington.    Leeds was also Chair for Senator Max Cleland’s campaigns and political committees as well as serving as Senior Advisor to Michelle Nunn in her 2014 Senate race.

I think this is a good sign.  Tomlinson obviously needs to shake up her fundraising, and Leeds seems well connected.

Hopefully Tomlinson's new fundraising director helps her raise enough cash to be viable statewide. But, according to the article I've linked below, this primary is turning out to be quite nasty, which will only help Perdue.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-senate-ossoff-rival-accuses-him-opting-civil-rights-icon/tKcIEBD9SW1k8DKMXNtXTM/

That article ends with this:  "Ossoff declined to comment, but an aide described the campaign as puzzled that Tomlinson would want to draw even more attention to Lewis’ endorsement."  Same here, man--this is not the kind of back and forth Tomlinson should want to get into.  I like her a lot, but Tomlinson's pick of Kendra Cotton as campaign manager increasingly seems like a major mistake.

He rents his email lists from the special election to other campaigns I believe.

Is it even legal ?

Yes, so long as they state that they do this/reserve the right to do this when the person signs up. Most campaigns have it in the fine print at the bottom of the page somewhere.

Nobody is paying attention to this. The campaign manager made this comment from her personal Facebook. I'm pretty sure, she will act accordingly and safeguard her page/avoid discussion of other candidates. This was not coming from the campaign or the candidate.

Tomlinson is out working hard and doing outreach. Ossoff is not the shoe-in that non-Georgians think he is.

Please tell me this ad didn't actually run on television (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Da7ZtkTQWo)

That is the worst, most amateurish ad I've ever seen and I pray it didn't actually air.

It was just a digital ad--little more than a jokey dig to quickly throw online.

That makes it...somewhat better.

Teresa lost her campaign manager, field director, and digital director....

The campaign is now going to be run through a consulting firm....

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-senate-several-top-tomlinson-deputies-leave-campaign/gbrRGS9WgwWz2lxzf1PhVL/

I see this is her attempt at a reboot, she is adding pink to her branding so I guess she’s trying to lean in on being a woman:

https://twitter.com/teresatomlinson/status/1215084341174423553?s=20

The significant news out of this story is that the campaign is being taken over by Lou Elrod, a big get with a lot of wins under his belt in GA.

So much I might say if I were somebody else, but I'm not, so I won't!

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I think everyone wants to wait until 2022

Agreed, I assume many Dems here are more interested in running statewide on a ticket with Abrams even under a Dem President than with a potentially damaged Presidential nominee and Trump on the ballot.

Also seems like it’s gonna be the year the damn finally breaks unless Kemp finds a way to drop a nuke only on Gwinnett County or something.

That is a terrible strategy cause if a Dem is in the WH then it will be very unlikely the Dems win that seat. The chances of Dems winning a seat in GA are like this


2022 With Trump in the WH> 2020 Senate Special Election> 2020 General Election > 2022 with a Dem in the WH

Yeah that doesn’t mean jack in a racially polarized, ineleastic state. Nothing is going to sop GA on its leftward March, once it’s gone, it’s gone for good.

I have a theory.

There's a certain level of difficulty/handicaps to factor in that is possibly causing this.

While having a ton of candidates in one race means that your chances of winning the nomination are much lower in that race (assuming they're credible ones), there is no nomination to be had in the other race. Isakson's race will be akin to the LA jungle primary: any and all candidates will appear on the same ballot, with the runoff occurring in January.

The odds of at least 1 or 2 rando Dems jumping in and siphoning off like 0.5-1% each is high (and at least with the former, practically guaranteed; the Ossoff race is probably the best recent example in GA, as is the 2019 LA jungle primary in general). It's very unlikely that there will end up being just 1 Democrat on the ballot for the Isakson jungle primary, even if Lieberman dropped out and one of the credible challengers from the Perdue race jumped ship to this one. It gets exponentially more difficult to win a race in GA as a Democrat with each percentage point you siphon off to either a fellow Democrat or independent in these jungle primary/runoff situations, for obvious reasons (50% +1).

So while in theory it might be nominally harder to knock off Perdue as an incumbent when compared to running in an open race, there's also the fact that you have no way to nail down your party's total endorsement or nomination in said open race - and you'll likely be running against a few random Democrats (and/or independents) who siphon off a few points. That virtually guarantees no outcome other than a runoff, which we would almost certainly lose.

If you want a Senate seat in GA as a Democrat, then you need to win on Election Night in November. I believe there's a better chance of that happening in the Perdue race, and that this is why everybody is clustering to challenge Perdue.

If Dems can’t win it in 2020 with Trump in the WH and in a Dem year they certainly won’t be able to win it in 2022 .

Their best case scenario would be a repeat of 2020 result but all that would do is hurt the career of a good candidate.

All you have to do is look back at 2018 Senate results and see that this isn't a sure a bet by any means. 2018 was a D+8 year and yet it didn't stop McCaskill, Donnelly, and Heitkamp from getting the boot. All three of those states were trending away from the Democrats and Georgia is doing the opposite. If anything, 2022 is likely Democrats' best chance considering how polarized this current climate is and Dems just have more realistic pickup opportunities that year even with a Democratic president.

That’s is a horrible comparison given how far MO , IN , and ND were already solid R states by then . GA won’t even be where OH was in 2018 by 2022 let alone those 3 states . A better comparison is where MO was in 2006 , for IN was only in Dems hands due to GOP throwing away that seat in 2012 and ND they won it in 2012 due to luck .

Two years is a long time in a rapidly diversifying state. You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take and all...

That explains the special election, but doesn't explain the terrible recruiting in the Perdue race when the question was about both the special and the Perdue race.

For the other seat, it's pretty simple: there is no tangible bench in Georgia. Virtually every elected Democrat - from city council to State Senate to US House - represents an area that is utterly noncompetitive in general elections. The vast, vast majority of elected Democrats in Georgia represent districts and jurisdictions that are >60% Democratic; the majority represent areas that are >75-80% Democratic. Barring the occasional and random out-county Dixiecrat who's been in office for 20+ years, there is nobody who knows how to win an actually competitive D v R general election in office - and this lack of experience shows in real campaigns.

GA-Sen AJC Poll : Perdue has a 51/28 approval rate

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-georgians-oppose-ousting-trump-impeachment-trial/0EL17qnjh9HAQfmHNPZ3jM/

"Charlie Baker is really popular, clearly MA is a safe R state." That poll has impeachment only down 5% (so the state is just over 5% to the right of the nation). The funniest thing is that it also says 47% of Georgians will definitely vote against Trump (while only 44% are definitely for him, with 2% not voting and 8% undecided). Trump's net approval is 4% while his net favorability is -3%. So the results are a bit weird but consistently with a Lean R state.

Kemp is not getting 60 percent of the vote but go off. Y'all will believe what you want until it happens and then you'll either pretend you saw it coming or blame the candidate like Trump does.

Abrams is going to raise a sh**t-ton of money in 2022 and huge press that will draw out loads of low propensity POC. The only faction of her coalition she has to worry about is keeping college ed whites in the suburbs as D as they are now. Non-white voters are going to be more of the electorate than they were in 2018, period.

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1221583477491019778

Terry's exit likely benefits Ossoff.

You do realize that GA Democrats did better in 2014 than in 2012?

Terry probably had sh-t fundraising in Q4.

Ossoff is probably going to win the primary outright. Tomlinson just isn't delivering.

I think Warnock is going to carry the Senate ticket anyway so I don't care who it is at this point.

Thats a shame, I think the ATL/outstate combo would have played well.

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https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1223343643811106816

Anyway, here's everyones cash. Ossoff leads.

Yeah, Warnock looks really strong for the other seat, but I still can't imagine Ossoff accomplishing much of anything outside of Atlanta in the GE.   

Hopefully someone strong like Warnock comes out of the woodwork for this race. All of these current candidates are underwhelming.

Tomlinson seemed promising in the same way the 2018 Trump district House candidates were promising.  Why is her campaign flopping so hard?

Jesus.  I've been making amonthly donation to Tomlinson since her campaign officially started, but given these numbers I think I'll stop. Why continue flushing my money down the crapper?

I'll preface this with the fact that I don't know all that much about Georgia politics. But, I have seen a few comments (mostly on atlas, so take that with a grain of salt) that blame her so far lackluster campaign on Tomlinson's lack of connections with Democrats in the Atlanta area (the stronghold of the state's Democratic party, and thus where most of the donors are).

You're dreaming

I think the lesson to be learned from Tomlinson is that a white dem that runs statewide should be Atlanta based.

Yeah, the Columbus metro area is tiny in comparison to Atlanta.

I'm dreaming by saying Warnock is going to be the stronger of the two Senate candidates? um, ok.

Has Abrams offered an endorsement in this race?  What about McBath?  Michelle Nunn?  Any chance one of these women would throw her support to Tomlinson?

No. Tomlinson’s campaign is a mess. She is going to have win it on her own.

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1227636310107656192

Roy Moore is doubtless very disappointed that he's not hitting the teens.

I mean that’s heartening for the good of the republic (not so much for the FF Doug Jones) but this is the Georgia Senate megathread...

They're not supposed to know we're annexing Alabama.

https://twitter.com/mbaram/status/1240844546008920065

This thread has been quiet for a while now and I thought it was relevant although Loeffler's understandably been receiving more coverage on the entire situation.

WTF is up with Georgia Senators & insider trading?

Perdue will win 55-44.

I think he'll win, but it will be a lot closer than that.  Maybe 52-47.

Only way Perdue wins by 10 is if Trump wins GA by 7-8. Barring major scandals (I don't think insider trading qualifies in GA, frankly) he won't outperform Trump by more than 2-3 points.

On the flip side, do you buy into the "Georgia is a tossup in 2020" narrative?

Tossup, no. Competitive, yes. I'll call it Lean R - meaning that I expect Trump to win the state, but would not be surprised if Biden takes it as part of a significant overall win.

One thing I am curious about is how he does in rural areas compared to Abrams-- she did significantly worse than even Hillary did in rural areas. Can Biden do a bit better here, or are the trends too strong? If he can, that could make a big difference in a close race.

Margin-wise, Biden will in all likelihood do worse than Clinton in several dozen counties. This will be due primarily to a loss of (black) population, but trends will play a minor role as well. Of course, all of these counties combined probably won't be more than 10-15% of the state's vote, and quite a number of them will only be tiny swings.

I don't see Biden doing worse than Clinton in as many places as Clinton did worse than Obama (or Abrams worse than Carter). Setting aside the counties where we are losing both population and a disproportionate number of Democratic voters, there is a hard mathematical floor in many places we're now hitting. There's still varying amounts of room for loss in many counties, but in over a third of GA's counties, we had white voters in 2018 voting GOP at higher percentages than black voters voting Democratic.

To Abrams' credit, while it's true she did consistently worse than Clinton in the vast majority of counties, it was only by 1-2 points in most places. You could argue that a favorable Democratic midterm makes that quite embarrassing, but you can also argue that an inelastic state where strong trends of polarization have been raging mitigated any bounce in rural areas. If you want to criticize Abrams performance in rural GA, it'd be much better to compare her performance to Carter's in 2014 (https://snipboard.io/REI7g0.jpg) than Clinton's in 2016. Abrams lost 3 points in the statewide margin from the counties where she did worse than Carter; enough to cost her the Governorship and mirror-reverse the actual result (50.2% Abrams, 48.8% Kemp).

The reason I personally am hesitant to make that comparison is because Carter's performance in those areas was simply unattainable. Perhaps it was due to the Carter name, but regardless, there was never a chance that Abrams would be able to keep Kemp under 70% in most of Southwest Georgia like Carter did. One comparison that might be more interesting, although also outdated, would be 2012 President -> 2018 Governor.

I haven't paid too much attention to the Georgia races, but is it fair to say Dems totally bombed recruiting here? Ossoff and some random pastor? Yikes.

'Totally bombed' isn't entirely fair I don't think. They're hardly a-listers but it's not even as bad as in Texas for instance. And of course, the GOP have thrown the Dems a lifeline with a nice little intraparty squabble. I can't see any reason Ossoff and A.R. Andom-Pastor will under-perform Biden significantly because of that.

But SW GA is like...nothing. Take everything west of I-75 and south of the Fall Line and you're talking about 6% of population (probably more like 5% of voters). Even when considering 2014/18 performance, Abrams didn't implode that badly there among white voters (the only apt comparison, given black population there was & is evaporating; can't win what doesn't exist): it was basically everywhere else in rural GA where she truly bombed in raw votes (SE GA, North GA, etc). Those places weren't inherently "loyal" to Carter because of his name in the way that a place like SW GA would've been.

Obviously her holding all of Carter's performance in these places wasn't possible - it's an illustration of how these places can still rat-f[inks]k Democrats despite so many in the party saying for the past 15 years that we've finally reached the bottom after every single election. It was a three-pronged set of losses with regard to her candidacy (in comparison to Carter's) in rural areas: one because of trends (unavoidable), one because she was a black woman (unavoidable in her personal circumstance, but not unavoidable for Democrats in general) and one because she went out of her way to talk about guns, Confederate monuments and other cultural claptrap that didn't motivate a single person to show up for her, but surely turned some likely voters against her (while galvanizing GOP turnout to boot).

Sorry, I meant to refer to South Georgia, basically everything south of the black belt sans Savannah. Anyway, Biden is able to counteract at least one of these factors (white man) and potentially another (depends on what Biden focuses his campaign on, though absurdly high rural turnout for Trump is basically a given). Anyway, even if he does this, it is only about 30% of the state. I am more curious about whether Abrams' performance in urban areas, and more specifically the ATL metro, is more of a high point or mid point for democrats. Is Abrams' ground game simply too strong to replicate? Or will Biden be able to turn out a lot of those low propensity black and Hispanic voters who probably had not voted for years, if ever.

Seriously? Random pastor? He's the pastor of a very famous, influential church where MLK was once pastor. He's well-known and seems to be running a great campaign.

Anyway - bringing this back to the Class II seat - is Ossoff considered the likely nominee or is Tomlinson believed to have a shot? She seems like the better GE option to me but I haven't seen any polling on the primary.

Ossoff led Tomlinson and Amico 31-16-15 in a recent AJC/UGA poll. (https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-biden-ossoff-have-leads-georgia-democratic-races/XaRPiyKSXhG49t3Yt5Zf3L/)

Thanks! Definitely doesn't seem like an insurmountable lead then.

With how competent Tomlinson's campaign appears to have been run thus far, it likely is :/

Entirely possible that Tomlinson's strategy is coasting through the first round by relying on her regional base, before ramping up for the runoff.

Bad strategy imo, but it could work.

Will there even be a run off? If Ossoff is leading that big I'm sure his lead in Metro Atlanta where he has infrastructure from 2017 and high name rec is even higher. He will probably get over 50 percent on Election Night.

Definitely a strong possibility. If she is truly not competing in the Atlanta metro and is relying on downstate, her fundraising makes sense. She will need to post landslide margins literally everywhere else in the state to put herself in a runoff, and will then have a lot of ground to make up to make the runoff competitive. Hence why it seems like a poor strategy.

Do any local posters know what her campaign looks like downstate? Is it entirely a ground operation? Is she doing any events?

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1250440612261679104?s=20

Teresa Tomlinson raised $600k and Amico raised $168k. I’m voting for Ossoff. National Dems may still abandon this race with him but they’re definitely avoiding us with the other two.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1250537202746044416?s=20

Yeah, this is Safe R. Ossoff will not be able to compete with the massive amount of money Perdue has and will continue to raise.

Swalwell just endorsed Tomlinson. What a doofus

Dem recruiting for both GA seats has been quite disappointing

Agreed. I think it's very telling that no remotely decent candidates decided to run for this seat. Ditto with Iowa and Texas.

I mean... who did GA have besides Abrams, McBath, and maybe Carter?

those 3 would be better than ossoff/tomlinson/warnock

you don't like hegar? Beto should have passed on prez and challenged cornyn imo

Hegar's okay, but she's not raising nearly enough money. Beto is the only one who might have had a chance.

That’s why I think it’s a mistake that Obama stayed out till now. He could have been raising millions upon millions for these battleground races. I think dems are making the mistake again neglecting congressional races somewhat to focus on prez

You guys have to give he canidates in these senate races a chance to prove themselves. Beto started out as a nobody early on in the cycle but ended up being very successful. Maybe Ossoff run a terrible campaign and doesn't stir up any media attention, but maybe he runs an amazing campaign and we'll look back on this forum and laugh. Abrams wasn'ta ll that great, considering the margin would be about what you would expect in 2018, and even though she did better in ATL, she didn't improve by much, and even did worse in some rural areas than Clinton.

Do you think dems win either seat

It looks like this primary is finally starting to take normal shape, as we're getting now daily reports of ad buys from both Ossoff and Tomlinson. Only Amico seems to still be dark.

Any Georgians have any idea what the campaigns look like on the ground, to the extent that on the ground campaigns are possible?

I've gotten a text from the Ossoff campaign and have seen his TV ads.  Haven't seen anything from Tomlinson or Amico yet, but then I'm not getting out much. :)

Do any of the lower-profile candidates have a chance of getting into the runoff?

I've seen Jon on television, I haven't been reached out to by any campaign for volunteering. From what I've seen on social media, Ossoff has been the most aggressive about recruiting virtual volunteers, but who knows how many people are actually biting.

Was reading about this race earlier & had a question that I'm hoping GA posters (and people generally in the know will know)

Why is there such a lack of a strong/well known candidate? The field looks on paper like the type of field you see from democrats in places like South Dakota.

I mean the three leading candaites are a former congressional staffer, a pastor and a surname... I know I'm being flippant but I'm surprised there isn't a well know recruit (who could absord a load of fundraising & push this seat higher up) either someone who served in Congress, the State House or some relatively big name like Sally Yates

I also wonder if it's the reason why Georgia seems quite low on the list of targets.

If I had to guess, everyone pretty much wants to run in two years for statewide office. Frankly, the senate sucks and it gives the state two more years of shifting. I’d much rather be an AG or SoS than a senator.

 Lmao this is turning into a creeper race.  (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/5/19/21262638/leaked-audio-david-perdue-comparing-coronavirus-car-crashes)

This seems delusional. She's polling lower than Ossoff against Perdue, so how are Dems squandering it?

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1262877189139300353

Perdue is at 45% against Ossoff, Tomlinson and Amico. The differences in Perdue's margin comes down to variations only in their figures, which is mostly name recognition. Turnout will be the key differentiator between the candidates in Georgia.

Tomlinson should put up or shut up. The reason she is losing to Ossoff is because her campaign sucks, not because national Democrats are ignoring her.

she's right, we could squander this chance against Purdue. We'd be doing it by nominating her.

If we go to a run off between her and Ossoff it's going to get nasty. Her high profile surrogates and staff have very colorful language about Ossoff's candidacy.

I finally did my absentee ballot yesterday and just went ahead and voted for Tomlinson. I think she’s going to get blown out after the latest round of polling so I might as well vote for who was closest to me on policy!

The final margin will be interesting but the past week has shown Tomlinson is desperate to pull him under 50 and he is already looking toward November and pumped an extra $450k of his own money into the campaign to shut this thing down Tuesday.

..... so if you don't mind me asking, why wouldn't you rather help Ossoff blow past 50 so he doesn't have to deal with another primary? It would make it a hell of a lot easier for him to win in Nov if he didn't have to deal with another runoff.

I've told everyone who has asked me who to vote for to vote for Ossoff. If my one *quietly cast* vote for Tomlinson sends this thing to a run off, my bad y'all.

Fortunately for Ossoff, I think he's in good enough position to avoid a runoff assuming that Landmark poll is pretty much correct.

Does her campaign suck, though?  I mean, just because she's losing doesn't necessarily mean she's run a bad campaign.  I haven't been following this race super closely for a few weeks, but my outside take is that her campaign has been fine.

Not it hasn't. Her fundraising would have been unimpressive even for a House candidate and she has already shaken up her campaign team once.

Right, but lousy fundraising isn't necessarily a result of bad campaigning.  It seems like Ossoff started with a massive donor list and a clear fundraising advantage that just crowded Tomlinson out, despite her early start.  What's more, there were several potential high-profile candidates waiting in the wings for months (Abrams, McBath, Yates, etc.), and that uncertainty kept Tomlinson from being able to lock up support.  It's hard to see what her campaign could do about all that.  Lastly, shaking up an underperforming campaign team seems like good decision-making on Tomlinson's part, even if it was ultimately ineffective.  I guess my point is that politics is as much circumstance/luck as it is skill/talent.  It doesn't seem fair to castigate Tomlinson for factors beyond her control.