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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election Predictions => Topic started by: aaroncd107 on January 12, 2019, 03:16:45 pm



Title: 2020 US Federal election ratings
Post by: aaroncd107 on January 12, 2019, 03:16:45 pm
President: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Db3xg (https://www.270towin.com/maps/Db3xg)
These ratings are just for now and they'll shift for certain once we have an idea of the theme of the primary, who the front runners are (so not until next February,) and if there are big changes (like a recession or something really convincingly bad from Mueller) then I'll shift some things left.

Senate: http://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/lp4Gkl (http://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/lp4Gkl)
Again, these are subject to change once nominees come up. Texas could easily become lean R by 2019, Montana likely R, etc. My eyes are on Kansas as I really think Svaty or one of the party switchers could pull off an upset, but it's solid R for now.

House: http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/wpkXExV (http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/wpkXExV)
Some things to explain here other than the currently unknown challengers:
-with districts susceptible to a special election i'm averaging what I think will happen in the special vs what will happen with the current incumbent in 2020. For example, Nate McMurray would win a special in NY-27 but Collins would be favored in 2020 if there's no special. Mark Harris is assumed the incumbent in NC-9.
-i'm putting a big premium on suburban Dems and I don't see the GOP clawing more than 6 of those districts back. The opposite with longtime Dem incumbents in Trump-won friewal districts - Ryan, Bustos, Kind, Loebsack start as likely D and can go either way.
-Notice that outside of PA, there are 7 seats that flipped this year that I rate safe: CA-21, CA-25, CA-48, CO-6, MN-1, MN-8, VA-10. A lot of the prognosticators also like to call FL-7 lean/likely D but Murphy's not losing w/ Trump on the ballot.
-NC ratings are for the current form of the districts and will change once a new map is implemented. I'd probably move NC-2, 6, and 13 to tossup when that time comes.


Title: Re: 2020 US Federal election ratings
Post by: olowakandi on January 31, 2019, 03:39:37 pm
Prez

()

Dems 279
Trump 179


Title: Re: 2020 US Federal election ratings
Post by: aaroncd107 on February 07, 2019, 05:05:54 pm
Updated for February:
President: https://www.270towin.com/maps/g4vlL
Senate: http://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/2BM0Za
House: https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/BKQOO4V


Title: Re: 2020 US Federal election ratings
Post by: Suburban New Jersey Conservative on February 24, 2019, 02:55:53 pm
Updated for February:
President: https://www.270towin.com/maps/g4vlL
Senate: http://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/2BM0Za
House: https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/BKQOO4V

Collins is not favored to lose and AZ is a Tossup as is MI and NH

Trump will win AZ in 2020 and one of NH/NV/MN/MI/PA/WI

Peterson, Cunningham, Rose and Torres Small are DOA
Spanberger and Van Drew are very very vulnerable
Lean D seems appropriate for Harley Rouda, maybe tilt, but not likely, that district is still R downballot
Also one of Finkenaur and Axne and one of Slotkin and Stevens will lose
Also Jahana Hayes, Jason Crow, Ami Bera and Conor Lamb are Safe D