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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections => Topic started by: sterk001 on January 18, 2019, 09:36:33 pm



Title: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: sterk001 on January 18, 2019, 09:36:33 pm
I'm new to the Atlas Community, and am a self described political scientist, and I have a question that I think I already know the answer to but just want everyone's opinions, but should the California GOP take a socially liberal and fiscally conservative (so more libertarian) approach to politics to become relevant again, or are they already dead and a new party needs to take it's place? I think I posted in the right category.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: libertpaulian on January 18, 2019, 09:54:46 pm
Build a time machine, travel back to 1993-94ish, and advise Pete Wilson to tone it down with immigration in his campaign.

While California's drift to a D state was inevitable, the CAGOP could have at least staved off the decline and made CA like a Massachusetts, Maryland, or Vermont type state in which GOP governors could still get elected while D's get elected to the White House and the Senate.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Old School Republican on January 19, 2019, 01:23:26 pm
Well I could see them have a chance in 2026 if this happens :


- Democrats win in 2020, and 2026

- Democrats move in a more anti big tech  direction (Especially statewide)

- GOP nominates a Charlie Baker type


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 20, 2019, 05:56:09 pm
Build a time machine, travel back to 1993-94ish, and advise Pete Wilson to tone it down with immigration in his campaign.

While California's drift to a D state was inevitable, the CAGOP could have at least staved off the decline and made CA like a Massachusetts, Maryland, or Vermont type state in which GOP governors could still get elected while D's get elected to the White House and the Senate.

They will eventually get a Charlie Baker type through, particularly once the Dem legislature is seen as safely veto-proof.  Newsom seems likely to really push the limits even in a liberal state, so whichever of 2022/26 is a Dem president midterm could be the opening.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Fubart Solman on January 21, 2019, 12:57:25 am
I think a better idea for the CA GOP would be to have someone like Falcouner run as an independent like Poizner did. It would have to be someone moderate, but politically experienced.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: StateBoiler on January 21, 2019, 09:35:51 am
I'm new to the Atlas Community, and am a self described political scientist, and I have a question that I think I already know the answer to but just want everyone's opinions, but should the California GOP take a socially liberal and fiscally conservative (so more libertarian) approach to politics to become relevant again, or are they already dead and a new party needs to take it's place? I think I posted in the right category.

The best foot forward is in races where 2 Democrats run, they form a unit and the discipline to vote for just one candidate, and convince their supporters they need to actually vote in the gubernatorial race. If they could do that, they're kingmakers and would force the 2 Democrats to come right to appeal to their voters which would be a largest voting bloc up for grabs. The Democratic Party voters in that scenario are more or less split, and you can't really encourage voting discipline in independent voters. But if you could in theory get all the Republicans in the state to vote for one Democratic candidate over the other, it'd be mighty hard for that candidate to lose.

There's some education that needs to take place of the California Republican Party telling Republican voters they must vote in every single race for the candidate that perceive is more Republican issues-friendly, even if no one has an R next to their name.

As far as "is the party dead?", someone needs to actually form these new parties and they need to get votes. The Democratic Party in my state for example is dead. There are large openings in places like California and Indiana and other states for people to form these new parties. No one has actually done so yet.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Old School Republican on January 23, 2019, 11:58:09 pm
Another thing is the top two rule can lead to distinct state parties like in Canada.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: TheBeardedOne on January 24, 2019, 04:00:09 am
Only one person can take the CAGOP back to the promised land.

()


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: sterk001 on January 24, 2019, 12:02:46 pm
Thanks for replying. I appreciate all your responses. Sorry for the late response, as I'm a college student.

But relating back to the main post, I really think the future of both parties is socially moderate/liberal with there being clear fiscal differences and views on government. In other words, this is because of the eventual urbanization of the country's population, which tends to bring closer contact with other people. To be clear, I don't expect this to happen in my lifetime, but the California GOP should be ahead of the nation in this mass urbanization, as most of the state's population lives within suburban and urban confines. So if they nominate a Charlie Baker or Larry Hogan type, would this mean that the future of the National GOP is looking to progress that way, or is it isolated?


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Old School Republican on January 24, 2019, 04:02:48 pm
Thanks for replying. I appreciate all your responses. Sorry for the late response, as I'm a college student.

But relating back to the main post, I really think the future of both parties is socially moderate/liberal with there being clear fiscal differences and views on government. In other words, this is because of the eventual urbanization of the country's population, which tends to bring closer contact with other people. To be clear, I don't expect this to happen in my lifetime, but the California GOP should be ahead of the nation in this mass urbanization, as most of the state's population lives within suburban and urban confines. So if they nominate a Charlie Baker or Larry Hogan type, would this mean that the future of the National GOP is looking to progress that way, or is it isolated?


The problem is Suburban Republicans in CA are very right wing as well


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: sterk001 on January 26, 2019, 10:17:14 am
That's true. The suburban Republicans are pretty conservative, although I know a lot of them are turned off by Trump. A friend had a neighborhood bloc party, and it turned into a Trump bashing session, so they are turned off by Trump (he lives in the suburbs). I live in a mostly exurban area in San Diego county, so it's more conservative but there's a lot of farming and I live exactly where the suburbs end and the rural part begins.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on January 26, 2019, 02:52:35 pm
One thing that dooms the California GOP along with MO dems is constitutional amendments on the ballot.

Sure moderate orange county voters may dislike certain stuff D's do like the gas tax but then they can just vote against it on the ballot. Its the same with the MO dems and RTW/minimum wage increase. When you support those #populist policies but want RW justices you can just vote for Hawley and the increases on the ballots.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Fubart Solman on January 26, 2019, 04:31:47 pm
One thing that dooms the California GOP along with MO dems is constitutional amendments on the ballot.

Sure moderate orange county voters may dislike certain stuff D's do like the gas tax but then they can just vote against it on the ballot. Its the same with the MO dems and RTW/minimum wage increase. When you support those #populist policies but want RW justices you can just vote for Hawley and the increases on the ballots.

Didnít work for them in 2018. Maybe 2022?


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: DINGO Joe on January 27, 2019, 03:10:52 pm
NA


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: NoobMaster69 on January 27, 2019, 04:51:32 pm
They need to find a young moderate in the state leg or a DA or something and start investing in him or her. It will probably be 26 or 30 before they actually stand a chance unless Newsom manages to screw something up badly but thatís plenty of time to get someone ready for it. The question is if they want to be more moderate like some of the other blue state GOPs who do well in gubernatorial elections like in MA and VT which seems unlikely at this juncture.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: UWS on January 27, 2019, 05:28:38 pm
I guess that the resurrection of the California GOP might require Kevin Faulconer running for Governor in 2022, for example.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Kevin on January 27, 2019, 06:02:34 pm
The CA GOP(and indeed the Republican Parties in states like NY, CT, and VA) is locked out of office so long as Trump is President.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: rob in cal on January 27, 2019, 07:47:33 pm
  In terms of kingmaker and using the top two system to have a role, in 2016 in the US Senate race I think GOP voters really missed to boat in terms of not massively backing Sanchez over Harris. Instead, according to exit polls, 44% of self described conservatives backed Harris. Bring that number down to about 14% and we might have a new senator. (Of course would a perceived GOP Sanchez alliance have galvanized liberal support even more for Harris? Perhaps but Harris was already getting the lions share of liberal voters anyway.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 27, 2019, 08:39:55 pm
 In terms of kingmaker and using the top two system to have a role, in 2016 in the US Senate race I think GOP voters really missed to boat in terms of not massively backing Sanchez over Harris. Instead, according to exit polls, 44% of self described conservatives backed Harris. Bring that number down to about 14% and we might have a new senator. (Of course would a perceived GOP Sanchez alliance have galvanized liberal support even more for Harris? Perhaps but Harris was already getting the lions share of liberal voters anyway.

Couple problems with this line of thought:

1 - Sanchez was shown to be a god awful candidate during the debates and the general campaign. Her campaign may have got more GOP voters if she was actually seen as someone who could win, rather then someone who self-sacrificed herself.

2 - Why should the GOP whip their voters to support a dem? You're not going to get one party to line up behind anothers candidate unless you spend precious resources to advertise and activate your voters. If Dems try and campaign off GOP voters, they will miss the lions share thanks to polarization. The other option that gets one party to line up behind another was seen in 2018. Feinstein was a known controversial liberal, so the GOP lined up behind the more left De Leon. Feinstein in this situation had tons of conservative scrutiny over Kavanaugh, so the ads and 'whipping' were more or less free.

And what happens if they whip their voters? Another dem goes into the senate from a blue state, takes up Shumers whip, and will win reelection in 6 years off the Dem supermajority among voters.

3 - Why should conservatives vote for a Dem? You're casting a ballot for someone who won't hold your views, and won't respect your opinions. Lets go back to 2018, which saw GOP voters motivated to simply cast a dissident vote against Feinstein. 12,464,235 people voted for Gov, compared to 11,113,364 people for senate. Over one million conservatives left the ballot blank, which would be the more rational option. Hell, the Insurance Commisioner race, with Poizner as a psudo-GOP'er got 650K more votes then the senate race - despite its position far down the ballot.

Now you might say something like this is a national senate race, perhaps the GOP supports dems locally they might foster a crossbench similar to NY's IDC. The problem with this though is that the seats that see top-two dem races are all Deep blue - the place where GOP support dooms candidates rather than lifts them up.

The problem facing the CAGOP is that there seems to be no way out of the death spiral. Poizner was the finger in the wind - a popular former incumbent against a more radical dem, in a race far enough down the ballot for ignorant Dems to drop off. There ended up being enough lockstep dem votes to put Lara in government, basically saying that the Baker route is mathematically closed here.  Sure, the dems might screw up like OK/KS Rs or CT/MD Ds - but the blue moon governor is a situation that can occur in all states. On the other hand, the GOP won't die, they have a loyal but shrinking 30% base in the Far East/North/Inland South. A realignment won't save them - the modern Dem party revolves around CA so much that Clinton had to come back for cash every now and again in 2016. Its now a majority-minority state, and the GOP won't win races until they start winning minorities.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Ted Bessell on January 27, 2019, 10:01:28 pm
There's really not much they can do unless Newsom becomes the West Coast version of Dan Malloy


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: The Chad Ralph Northam on January 27, 2019, 10:44:42 pm
There's really not much they can do unless Newsom becomes the West Coast version of Dan Malloy
Even then I think they'd lose (See: OK-GOV 2018, CT-GOV 2018).


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Invisible Obama on January 27, 2019, 11:12:55 pm
They would have to shut Democrats out of the top two to really have a chance. Other than that they'd have to have an exceptional candidate against a terrible Democrat.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Not_A_Man on January 28, 2019, 03:53:26 pm
Wait the CA GOP has a future?


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on January 28, 2019, 09:19:10 pm
There's really not much they can do unless Newsom becomes the West Coast version of Dan Malloy
Even then I think they'd lose (See: OK-GOV 2018, CT-GOV 2018).


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists on January 29, 2019, 10:35:42 am
Wait the CA GOP has a future?
Wait, there's still a CA GOP?


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Joshua on January 30, 2019, 03:56:23 am
I think there is a chance the Republicans could win with a Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan style candidate. And maybe that is with Kevin Faulconer. But I don't see any transcendent CAGOP figure that totally fits that mold yet. And to do it, it has to be in a 2014 style electorate where absolutely no one is voting and it's the sixth year of a Democratic president with middling to poor approvals.

But in terms of how much actual influence on governing they'd have depends on how the redistricting commission draws the new legislative maps in 2020. If they're anything similar to the existing maps, Democrats have locked in a veto-proof majority indefinitely. The rural packing is getting too extreme for the CAGOP.

And believe it or not, the GOP still has their asses hanging out on a handful of State Senate seats that are up in 2020 (districts 21, 23, 29, 37). And could theoretically bleed a handful more State Assembly seats in 2020, although I can't really see there being a total net change in either direction of more than a seat or two.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Old School Republican on January 30, 2019, 04:46:17 am
Just stunning this was the same state Conservative Republicans(Arnold is more moderate than Today's GOP but hes not more moderate compared to earlier Republicans who were considered Conservatives like Pete Wilson and even Reagan) held the Gubernatorial Office for 31/44 years from 1966-2010 and a period of 16 consecutive years from 1982-1998


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: smoltchanov on January 30, 2019, 06:35:33 am
Just stunning this was the same state Conservative Republicans(Arnold is more moderate than Today's GOP but hes not more moderate compared to earlier Republicans who were considered Conservatives like Pete Wilson and even Reagan) held the Gubernatorial Office for 31/44 years from 1966-2010 and a period of 16 consecutive years from 1982-1998

In 1960th-1970th there were Republicans, like state Senator Peter Behr, who were substantially more liberal, then most Democrats. Where they are now (not personally, of course, but likeminded people)?????


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Old School Republican on January 30, 2019, 11:29:00 am
Just stunning this was the same state Conservative Republicans(Arnold is more moderate than Today's GOP but hes not more moderate compared to earlier Republicans who were considered Conservatives like Pete Wilson and even Reagan) held the Gubernatorial Office for 31/44 years from 1966-2010 and a period of 16 consecutive years from 1982-1998

In 1960th-1970th there were Republicans, like state Senator Peter Behr, who were substantially more liberal, then most Democrats. Where they are now (not personally, of course, but likeminded people)?????

Yes but still the ones who the gubernatorial races were solid Conservatives


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2019, 11:52:44 am
I think there is a chance the Republicans could win with a Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan style candidate. And maybe that is with Kevin Faulconer. But I don't see any transcendent CAGOP figure that totally fits that mold yet. And to do it, it has to be in a 2014 style electorate where absolutely no one is voting and it's the sixth year of a Democratic president with middling to poor approvals.

But in terms of how much actual influence on governing they'd have depends on how the redistricting commission draws the new legislative maps in 2020. If they're anything similar to the existing maps, Democrats have locked in a veto-proof majority indefinitely. The rural packing is getting too extreme for the CAGOP.

And believe it or not, the GOP still has their asses hanging out on a handful of State Senate seats that are up in 2020 (districts 21, 23, 29, 37). And could theoretically bleed a handful more State Assembly seats in 2020, although I can't really see there being a total net change in either direction of more than a seat or two.
no one who isnt a dem is winning anything statewide in California no matter what.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Old School Republican on January 30, 2019, 11:55:13 am
I think there is a chance the Republicans could win with a Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan style candidate. And maybe that is with Kevin Faulconer. But I don't see any transcendent CAGOP figure that totally fits that mold yet. And to do it, it has to be in a 2014 style electorate where absolutely no one is voting and it's the sixth year of a Democratic president with middling to poor approvals.

But in terms of how much actual influence on governing they'd have depends on how the redistricting commission draws the new legislative maps in 2020. If they're anything similar to the existing maps, Democrats have locked in a veto-proof majority indefinitely. The rural packing is getting too extreme for the CAGOP.

And believe it or not, the GOP still has their asses hanging out on a handful of State Senate seats that are up in 2020 (districts 21, 23, 29, 37). And could theoretically bleed a handful more State Assembly seats in 2020, although I can't really see there being a total net change in either direction of more than a seat or two.
no one who isnt a dem is winning anything statewide in California no matter what.


Presidential level and in the senate sure


But other than that it will happen sometime in the next 6-18 years


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2019, 02:54:38 pm
I think there is a chance the Republicans could win with a Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan style candidate. And maybe that is with Kevin Faulconer. But I don't see any transcendent CAGOP figure that totally fits that mold yet. And to do it, it has to be in a 2014 style electorate where absolutely no one is voting and it's the sixth year of a Democratic president with middling to poor approvals.

But in terms of how much actual influence on governing they'd have depends on how the redistricting commission draws the new legislative maps in 2020. If they're anything similar to the existing maps, Democrats have locked in a veto-proof majority indefinitely. The rural packing is getting too extreme for the CAGOP.

And believe it or not, the GOP still has their asses hanging out on a handful of State Senate seats that are up in 2020 (districts 21, 23, 29, 37). And could theoretically bleed a handful more State Assembly seats in 2020, although I can't really see there being a total net change in either direction of more than a seat or two.
no one who isnt a dem is winning anything statewide in California no matter what.


Presidential level and in the senate sure


But other than that it will happen sometime in the next 6-18 years

If you missed my big in depth dive, I concluded that this route is basically shut. Poizner was the finger in the wind, he had everything right going for him: Independent affiliation to drive his separation from the pubs, personal strength with Silicon Valley whites AND minorities, a former record of success to campaign on, endorsements form democratic leaning groups and newspapers, a opponent who was on the far left so Poizner could take mainstream Liberal positions like defending and expanding Obamacare, and a campaign that was based on his opponents positions like single payer, I can go on about the list of things in his favor. Poizer Lost. There are just too many lock-step Democrats.

Poizner probably would have won in a year like 2014, but that shows just how narrow that path is. The candidate needs to have everything, and I mean everything, go right plus a favorable environment to win. Oh and they can't be a Republican, or else the dems will just see the candidate as a friend of the national republicans exclusionary policies.

I mean sure, the once-in-a-blue-moon governor could arrive if dems drive the state into the toilet, but that is always a threat in any state, no matter how partisan. Every other route has worse then 1 in a hundred odds.


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: smoltchanov on January 31, 2019, 03:41:05 am
Just stunning this was the same state Conservative Republicans(Arnold is more moderate than Today's GOP but hes not more moderate compared to earlier Republicans who were considered Conservatives like Pete Wilson and even Reagan) held the Gubernatorial Office for 31/44 years from 1966-2010 and a period of 16 consecutive years from 1982-1998

In 1960th-1970th there were Republicans, like state Senator Peter Behr, who were substantially more liberal, then most Democrats. Where they are now (not personally, of course, but likeminded people)?????

Yes but still the ones who the gubernatorial races were solid Conservatives

Of course. But since then a lot of factors changed. Demographic composition of state first of all: it's much less white (non Hispanic) now, then it was then. When i read in my first edition of "The Almanac of American politics", that very conservative Republican congressman of that time Del Clawson is former mayor of Compton, and try to imagine something similar now - my imagination simply fails. The "white flight" of conservative families to Idaho or Utah is almost complete now. The set of "priority issues" changed too: economy and crime (with addition of "race riots") were almost first among them in 1960th-1970th, while abortions or "gay marriage" (plus - environment, including water) - almost surely were not. And a lot of other factors. But, it seems, California Republicans still live in 1960s, with Reagan's "law and order" approach being the pillar. 


Title: Re: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections
Post by: smoltchanov on January 31, 2019, 03:45:05 am
I think there is a chance the Republicans could win with a Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan style candidate. And maybe that is with Kevin Faulconer. But I don't see any transcendent CAGOP figure that totally fits that mold yet. And to do it, it has to be in a 2014 style electorate where absolutely no one is voting and it's the sixth year of a Democratic president with middling to poor approvals.

But in terms of how much actual influence on governing they'd have depends on how the redistricting commission draws the new legislative maps in 2020. If they're anything similar to the existing maps, Democrats have locked in a veto-proof majority indefinitely. The rural packing is getting too extreme for the CAGOP.

And believe it or not, the GOP still has their asses hanging out on a handful of State Senate seats that are up in 2020 (districts 21, 23, 29, 37). And could theoretically bleed a handful more State Assembly seats in 2020, although I can't really see there being a total net change in either direction of more than a seat or two.
no one who isnt a dem is winning anything statewide in California no matter what.


Presidential level and in the senate sure


But other than that it will happen sometime in the next 6-18 years

If you missed my big in depth dive, I concluded that this route is basically shut. Poizner was the finger in the wind, he had everything right going for him: Independent affiliation to drive his separation from the pubs, personal strength with Silicon Valley whites AND minorities, a former record of success to campaign on, endorsements form democratic leaning groups and newspapers, a opponent who was on the far left so Poizner could take mainstream Liberal positions like defending and expanding Obamacare, and a campaign that was based on his opponents positions like single payer, I can go on about the list of things in his favor. Poizer Lost. There are just too many lock-step Democrats.

Poizner probably would have won in a year like 2014, but that shows just how narrow that path is. The candidate needs to have everything, and I mean everything, go right plus a favorable environment to win. Oh and they can't be a Republican, or else the dems will just see the candidate as a friend of the national republicans exclusionary policies.

I mean sure, the once-in-a-blue-moon governor could arrive if dems drive the state into the toilet, but that is always a threat in any state, no matter how partisan. Every other route has worse then 1 in a hundred odds.

Almost completely agree. If some dumb future Democratic governor will put a state on the brink of the bancruptsy, then - possible. Until then - highly unlikely. There are REALLY too many "lock-step Democrats", who vote not for a person, but for letter after name, in California. Idiocy, IMHO, but - a fact.