Talk Elections

The remaining right wing suburbs in America post-2018 election other than Williamson County, TN and Waukesha County, WI, that I can think of?

Its difficult to say if recent trends in Suburbia are more anti-Trump than anything else.

there's still a ton of them lul

There are a bunch that could well snap back once we have a Dem President again. We won't know until it happens. 

Some surviving blood red suburbs in areas which were once all deep red includes montgomery tx and forsyth ga. Even these are swinging d .

Shelby, AL
Lexington, SC
SC Upstate
Collin and Denton, TX
Hamilton, IN
WOW Counties, WI
Williamson, TN
Rankin, MS
Delaware, OH
Cherokee and Forsyth, GA
Jefferson, LA

Trump should win all those by double digits in 2020.

Try again

Counties labeled as "exurban (https://www.americancommunities.org/community-type/exurbs/)" by the American Community Project gave Trump 55.5% of their vote, while counties labeled as "middle suburbs (https://www.americancommunities.org/community-type/middle-suburbs/)" gave Trump 54% of their vote. Examples of the former include Hamilton County, IN and Delaware County, OH, while examples of the latter include Lancaster County, PA.

Trump will win St. Tammany by 20+ but will only win Jefferson by 6-8

Trump won Collin County by 17 points in 2016

These suburbs are all in southern and midwestern states. And all of them seem to be trending leftward anyway.

Here’s what I got
-Shelby AL
-Benton/Fayette AR
-Pinal AZ
-Douglas CO
-Hamilton/Boone IN
-Oldham/Bullitt KY
-Campbell/Kenton/Boone KY
-DeSoto MS
-Rankin MS
-St. Charles/Jefferson MO
-Platte/Clay/Cass MO
-Union/Iredell/Gaston/Cabarrus NC
-Hunterdon/Warren/Sussex NJ
-Monmouth/Ocean NJ
-Delaware OH
-Warren/Butler OH
-Cleveland OK
-Westmoreland PA
-Greenville/Spartanburg/Anderson/Pickens SC
-Lexington SC
-Dorchester/Berkeley SC
-York SC
-Williamson/Rutherford/Wilson TN
-Brazoria/Galveston TX
-Comal TX
-Kaufman/Rockwall TX
-Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington (WOW Counties) WI

He said 2020

Collin won’t swing by 8 points in 2020

Cruz only won Collin by 6 and Trump is more unpopular in Texas than Cruz is. Paxton also only won by 8 points.

In a midterm year where things go against the President’s party all the time .


So unless you think 2020 will have the Democrats winning by 7-8 points nationally again Collin won’t be within 10 points 

Romney won it by 31

Cruz won it by 6 in a Democratic Wave year, and the Democratic candidate in that case had the ability to spend all his resources in one state.

National Dems wont have that luxury and if 2020 isnt a wave Trump will win TX by 7-11 points in 2020 in most cases.


I think Trump will also win Tarrant by 5-6 points

Everyone knows that Beto-Collier-Nelson-Olson voters for Trump are incredibly common.

No offense, OSR, but you know absolutely nothing about Collin County.

Lmao you know nothing about midterms vs Presidential elections

Clearly people who voted for a highly visible, very progressive challenger candidate for Senate are going to turn around and vote for Trump two years later. You can keep denying trends, but voters don’t care about that. You’re a joke.

So you think Texas will be within 3 points even if the national popular vote is only Democrats + 3 or +4.

LMAO

Apparently you love embarrassing yourself. You probably predicted that Cruz would've won by 8-10% before the election, and you're already showing signs of being stupidly overconfident about 2020. You can keep typing "LMAO" until your grave; it won't make you any more correct.

My Prediction was Cruz by 6 or 7 but my House Prediction was Dem+28 so relatively to the national vote I think I came close .

It's more about WHO shows up to vote.  While these midterms had unusually high turnout for a midterm, it was still lower than presidential turnout in most places.  Some people in the president's party choose not to vote in midterms for whatever reason.  And, there are some people who aren't that ideological.  There were certainly some Trump-Beto voters, and some of those will vote for Trump again.  Texas might eventually be a swing state, but it isn't there yet.

Delaware is trending Democratic. Obama won the City of Delaware in 2008, and Danny O'Conner did quite well in the southern county Columbus suburbs in his race for OH-12.

Trump will almost surely win it--it was a Goldwater county after all--but it's by no means synonymous with uber-Republican like it was even less than 20 years ago. 

Madison, MS although not nearly as Republican as Rankin due to the city of Canton and the rural areas of the county that are majority-Black. The county leans R thanks to the cities of Madison and Ridgeland although the latter is quite a bit less Republican leaning than the former.

Shelby, AL
Pinal, AZ
Benton, AR
Kern, CA
Douglas, CO
St. Johns, FL
Collier, FL
Forsyth, GA
Cherokee, GA
Hall, GA
Hamilton, IN
Hendricks, IN
Boone, IN
Campbell, KY
Kenton, KY
Boone, KY
Ottawa, MI
Carver, MN
Scott, MN
DeSoto, MS
Rankin, MS
St. Charles, MO
Jefferson, MO
Sarpy, NE
Hunterdon, NJ
Warren, NJ
Sussex, NJ
Monmouth, NJ
Ocean, NJ
Union, NC
Delaware, OH
Butler, OH
Warren, OH
Clemung, OH
Cleveland, OK
Lancaster, PA
Cumberland, PA
Westmoreland, PA
Butler, PA
Greenville, SC
Lexington, SC
Williamson, TN
Montgomery, TX
Collin, TX
Denton, TX
Most of Utah
Hanover, VA
Putnam, WV
Waukesha, WI
Washington, WI
Ozaukee, WI

There are still a huge number, and Atlas is being delusional about suburban trends as usual.

Let's just say the American suburbs are a tossup; period.

But a lot of suburbs are trending Democratic.

1) What are we defining as "right-wing"?  A GOP margin of 20%+?  That would be about as Republican as the state of New York was in 2016.  25%+?  That puts it around Vermont, Maryland and Massachusetts.  30%+?  That is literally California and Hawaii territory, the two most Democratic states last election.  Some people act like some counties - like Williamson County, TN - aren't VERY Republican simply because they trended Democratic, even though Trump won the county by more than Clinton won Hawaii.

2) Playing off of my first point, I don't think how a state is trending is really THAT relevant to simply answering the question.  If a county is super Republican, it's super Republican.  Might it not be one day?  Sure!  However, currently, there are a LOT of very, very Republican suburban areas, arguably more than very Democratic suburban areas.

3) This topic is very bronz, LOL.

The majority of those are trending D though. They're still super Republican, but how is Atlas delusional about suburban trends for recognizing they are happening, even if they may not flip all those counties?

Meanwhile, how many non-college white filled counties are trending D? Oh right, practically zero.

The point is that "trending" is somewhat of a birdwalk to answering this question and comes across like "yeah, Hamilton County, IN still voted super-duper Republican, but not super-SUPER-duper Republican!" ... cool?  This is just asking if there are still very Republican suburbs, and anyone who takes the time to look into that question knows the answer is an emphatic yes.  Also, if you are a Democrat who goes from Williamson County, TN by 46.5% in 2012 to 35.00% in 2016, how long and how far do you really think that trend is going to go?  *TRENDS* usually only last so long before something else shakes up the party dynamics.

I looked in depth at Williamson County when full precinct results became available, and I actually found that Republicans held up extremely well here in 2018.  Other than the Senate race (which was closer statewide than the environment would have suggested), Republicans pretty much matched Trump's two-party share of the vote in 2018, despite being in a D+8 environment instead of a D+2 one.  And, the classic wealthy suburban parts trended Republican relative to both the nation and the state as a whole from 2016 to 2018.  The only area of Williamson County that trended slightly Democratic would be the areas that are just becoming part of suburbia after having been rural a few years ago.

See my whole analysis here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=309563.0

In Massachusetts, inland Plymouth County, many of the western/southern suburbs of Worcester, and (more recently) many suburbs of Springfield are pretty Republican.

Same reason they went red during the Obama midterms

The exurban fringes of suburbs often tend to be more conservative that inner ring suburbs. Usually less diverse too. And then you have Southern suburbs like Shelby County that remain far more conservative and religious-right.

Collin and Denton are drifting D as they get more college-educated people who cannot relate to Donald Trump.

Trump alienates a constituency once highly reliable for Republicans: well-educated people who are fiscal conservatives once they have a college education and a government-subsidized housing loan.  The sort of anti-intellectualism that Americans accept is directed at wayward professors and creative people (actors, artists, musicians) who offend middle-class values -- and not at such people as accountants, engineers, research scientists, and schoolteachers. Such people would have had "I like Ike" buttons in the 1950s.

That is a much bigger constituency than it was in the 1950s. That that constituency (college-educated people) was more WASP in the 1950s matters little; most people are far more than their ethnicity and religious identity. 

All that the Democrats need is a nominee with an Eisenhower-like temperament, and they will win an electoral landslide. 

Atlas is mostly delusional about Wisconsin. They are in denial that the demographic trends of the state (i.e. an aging, blue-collar, and less educated population) greatly favor the GOP. It doesn't help that Milwaukee is shrinking while its surrounding suburban counties in bold are actually trending Republican. For example: In the 2006 WI gubernatorial election, the R candidate won 64% of the vote in Waukesha County, whereas Scott Walker won 66%. In Ozaukee County in the 2006 gubernatorial race, the R candidate won 62% of the vote, whereas Walker won 64% of the vote share this year. Thus, one can reasonably conclude that WOW IS the only suburban area that's trending R. The D trend between 2014 - 2018 in WOW is temporary. The Republicans in those three counties will come back home for the GOP once Trump leaves office.

Also, Dane is barely growing and Milwaukee doesn't turnout for elections.

Except in two straight election cycles (2016 and 2018) Ozaukee, Waukesha and all of the inner suburbs in Milwaukee County (Wauwatosa, Whitefish Bay, etc.) substantially trended Democratic. Also you are comparing an election where the Democrat won by about 7 points in 2006, to one where the Democrat only won by a point (2018). It was the Republican collapse in the Milwaukee suburbs as to why Evers was able to win. Example: Walker won his hometown of Wauwatosa by 4.68 points in 2014 to losing it by 16.17%. That's nearly a 21 point swing! Most of the other major suburban cities saw big drops in Republican support. Waukesha, 17.57% towards the Democrats, New Berlin, 11.83%, Brookfield, 17.77%, Menomonee Falls, 13.18%. These are horrific numbers for Republicans in what is their base region. Is it possible that this all reverts back after Trump is gone? Maybe, but generally its hard to put the genie back in the bottle.

Also the idea that Dane County isn't growing, when its the fastest growing county in the state by a country mile, is laughable. Also Milwaukee County had its best midterm turnout in a long time in 2018.

Wisconsin is not turning into a Republican stronghold, whether you like it or not.

I agree Dane is growing obviously, and the GOP seems to be collapsing in Wauwatosa.

However, with respect to WOW itself, yes WOW did move leftward from where it was in the Walker/Obama era but it's still considerably more Republican than it was a decade ago. It's easy to lose in all the other stuff going on that WOW could just be reverting to pre-Obama era margins rather departing on a journey to become the Chicago collar counties north. Yes, I agree it is concerning and probably the most concerning thing about Wisconsin trends for the GOP.

Still, here's the 2016 swing map:
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If it continues to look something like that, the GOP can still win with declining WOW support.

You should take population trends into account. The R-trending rural areas are shrinking. I think Waukesha and Ozaukee Counties will start voting under 60% Republican after the Trump era, while Dane will continue to add more Democratic votes every election cycle. I also think Brown County (Wisconsin's third largest county) is maxed out for Republicans due to Green Bay's Latino population and its suburbs breaking towards Democrats. In my opinion, WI Dems have a leg up in future statewide elections in WI. And Milwaukee's population has stagnated - it isn't declining drastically like Detroit.

WI will always be a purple state thanks to Milwaukee, Dane, and D-trending WOW and St. Croix. Tony Evers won Hudson and nearly won New Richmond. It is simply a Republican's wet dream that Wisconsin will turn into Indiana.