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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election What-ifs? => Topic started by: terp40hitch on January 25, 2019, 05:01:36 pm



Title: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 25, 2019, 05:01:36 pm
One America Divided
2020 Election


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FiveThirtyEight: Meet the 2020 Candidates
November 13th, 2020

FiveThirtyEight-Just a week after the biggest blue wave the nation has ever seen, three Democratic Candidates have already announced their bids sensing President Trump's weak reelection chances. As we will do throughout the election, we will give every candidate a summary to tell about them and their chances at the white house.

Congressmen John Delaney (MD-06)- The first major Democrat in the race is Congressmen, soon to be former congressmen, John Delaney who opted for a race for the White House instead of another bid for the house or a race for Governor. He is actually been waging his presidential campaign since early 2017 and has already done all 99 counties in Iowa and has poured one million in advertising, from his own money, in the state.  He has started to develop a large Iowa-powerful team and organization around the state. It has helped Delaney with crowd sizes and being able to be taken seriously but not when looking at polls especially national.

Delaney has had many struggles in his long bid for the white house, most notably fundraising. Delaney is in over three million dollars in debt already but Delaney has promised he would self-fund till he has no more debt which revolves much of that issue. Though Delaney is a very serious candidate and has held higher office before, some newspapers and tv shows have not shown his campaign when discussing the 2020 election even if he is one of the three current Democrats in the race. Delaney is even being overshadowed already by a failed congressional candidate who has only been a state senator for three years but we will get to that later.

Delaney has run on a bipartisan, uniting America agenda which could be helpful in the 2020 election after four years of division under President Trump. Delaney has made that the focus of his campaign as he "focuses on the future".

Andrew Yang (NY)-Businessman to President? Have we heard that before? Andrew Yang is the second Democrat that announced his bid the presidency and he, like Trump, has held no government position and is a rich businessman. I don't know how likely Democrats are to pit Trump against someone with the same experience as Trump. Yang does have one benefit that Trump and no other Democrat running does, he is a minority. After the 2018 election where women and minorities did substanly better than average, there may just be an opening for Andrew Yang. Yang does face the challenge of standing out of the field that looks like it will be filled with minorities and women though.

Andrew Yang also faces the same challenges that Delaney faces. Yang has not fundraised well at all but like Delaney, he can self finance his campaign if needed. The second big problem is no name recognition or base of support since he has not held office before, not even as a mayor which means no one who isn't a business major knows who Andrew Yang is. Yang is also not being taken as a serious candidate which is far from true as he has already opened an office in Iowa, the first to do so, and has rallied supporters across the country.

State Senator Richard Ojeda (WV)- The former Trump voter turned congressional candidate was able to close a twenty-five point gap in the district he ran for between 2016 and 2018 even if he lost. by twelve points in the end. That may be impressive but does it make him ready for the white house? Richard Ojeda thinks so and has announced his bid yesterday.

Ojeda does have a base of support that he could rally to help win over support, unions and working families. This is what allowed Ojeda to win his state senate seat which went overwhemly for Trump. Ojeda became semi-famous when he rallied the teachers union outside the West Virginia capital demanding more pay and shorter class sizes and he has already made unions a key point in his bid since he announced in a union hall, surrounded by union families in heavily union state of Kentucky.

Ojeda may have a base which the other two lack for the most part but he also is going to struggle with finances and name recognition. Unlike Delaney and Yang, he cannot make financial issues just disappear which is something that weighs down every campaign. With no financial help, it will make it harder for him to find staff, offices and the ability to spread his name. Without any of those then a base without support will fall and Ojeda will join the also-rans of history.



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CNN: Iowa is Sherrod Brown Country?

CNN- Election Day, Senator Sherrod Brown was able to win a third term over Representative Jim Renacci by seven points, in a state that President Trump won by nine. This may seem impressive but Senator Brown was leading by ten to twenty points leading into the final weeks and won his last election by six points and now it was a blue wave year and he barely improved. That race did get nasty in the final weeks as Renacci brought up Brown's divorce where his ex-wife claimed abuse by Senator Brown which both Senator Brown and his ex-wife said should not have been brought up.

Now, Senator Brown is looking at the White House as his next political goal. He has announced his intentions to launch a dignity of work tour in the three early states of Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire. This is singling his first real steps to a presidential bid in 2020 which is a real possibility that he could win. Brown is from the midwest, has a populist background and is from a swing state. He looks like a natural frontrunner for the Democratic primary but this year is looking like the Democrats are moving away from white, older men like Sherrod Brown and towards people who did well in 2018, minorities and women. Already plenty of minorities and women have eyes towards the white house like Tulsi Gabbard and Kamala Harris.

Sherrod Brown's chance of the nomination will have to lie in Iowa if he runs which could be a strong place for him. Populist rhetoric took the state in 2016 and could flip it in 2020 if they nominate Senator Brown. Brown also has midwestern roots and visited state multiple times during the primary. Brown will be competing for that state with Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg and multiple other midwestern Democrats trying to win early and all those will also be competing with the big names in the primary like Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.



CNN/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll from November 17th to 21st
Sample Size: 1,569

Democrats
Joe Biden: 16.6%
Beto O'Rourke: 13.3%
Bernie Sanders: 13.1%
Kamala Harris: 8.4%
Amy Klobuchar: 5.5%
Sherrod Brown: 4.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.4%
Cory Booker: 1.3%
Michael Bloomberg: 1.0%
John Delaney: 0.8%
Kristen Gillibrand: 0.4%
Julian Castro: 0.3%
Richard Ojeda: 0.3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 0.1%
John Kerry: 0.1%
Andrew Yang: 0.1%
Tim Ryan: 0%
Terry McAullife: 0%
Undecided: 33.2%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: KaiserDave on January 25, 2019, 06:06:19 pm
Brown!!!!!


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: Traitor-crats on January 25, 2019, 06:24:06 pm
Canít ying the Yang!


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 26, 2019, 11:33:00 am
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Hometown Favorite? Not Ojeda
November 28th, 2018

MSNBC- The latest poll coming out of the upcoming 2020 election is for the 2020 Democratic primary that has already three candidates in the race. The latest poll was done in the state of West Virginia, the home state of State Senator Richard Ojeda. Richard Ojeda in 2018 gain fame when he ran for the third west Virginia congressional district and attack President Trump, the man he voted for, in many viral videos. Ojeda ended up losing the race by twelve points to the incoming freshmen Republican Carol Miller, the only new Republican women. Still, Ojeda was able to improve upon Hillary Clinton's percentage by over twenty-five points.

Now, Ojeda is running for president just days after losing his bid for Congress. His path to victory he believes is through unions and working families. He made that a hallmark of his congressional campaign and his presidential, he even announced his bid in a union hall surrounded by union families. He will run into many obstacles on his way to the White House. First, Ojeda will be running with very few funds. Few big donors will sign onto a campaign with such little prospects which creates his second problem, name recognition. Without money, Ojeda will have trouble staffing, traveling, and opening offices which will severely hurt his chances at spreading his name around the nation. With the latest poll out of his home state though, there may be a third problem for Ojeda, when people hear his message they aren't buying it.

In the latest poll, Ojeda couldn't even make it in the top three. He fell behind the frontrunners of Biden and Bernie who both are in double digits. Then he also fell behind another midwestern, Sherrod Brown who is just a few votes ahead of Ojeda in the latest poll and lives in the bordering state of Ohio.


MSNBC Poll of West Virginia Democrats
Sample Size: 529
Joe Biden: 36.1%
Bernie Sanders: 14.3%
Sherrod Brown: 6.3%
Richard Ojeda: 6.2%
Terry McAullife: 3.2%
Tim Ryan: 2.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 2.1%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.3%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.1%
Bob Casey: 1.1%
Kamala Harris: 0.9%
John Delaney: 0.7%
Michael Bloomberg: 0.4%
Cory Booker: 0.4%
Tulsi Gabbard: 0.3%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Undecided: 22.9%

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T-Paw 2020: Amy Klobuchar?
December 2nd, 2018

Politico- Tim Pawlenty or T-Paw was the rising star in the Republican party, was on the shortlist of Vice-Presidential candidates in 2008 and was coming from Minnesota which could be a swing state in the right year. Pawlenty looked like the dream candidate but then he made the jump into the race and his campaign. The high expectations didn't come to the surface when he came into the ring and was soon knocked out of the race because he had no base and the base he thought he had was already been taken by other candidates.

Now, another Minnesotan is thinking of running for the same office eight years after T-Paw's downfall, Senator Amy Klobuchar. Once again, Klobuchar like Pawlenty is a rising star from the midwest but Klobuchar is also a woman which could help her in 2020. Still, much of her base of midwestern voters might find a new candidate if she doesn't enter soon enough or even her women supporters. Many supporters or prospective staff could jump ship to join another ship before Klobuchar is even set sail. Many of these voters or staff will go to other campaigns with similar platforms to Klobuchar like what happened to Pawlenty. Most likely they will go to Kamala Harris, Sherrod Brown, Pete Buttigieg or Joe Biden.

If Klobuchar doesn't set sail soon her ship could start to sink and she could end up looking like T-Paw 2020 which no candidate has ever wanted.



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Senator Michael Bennet is a Maybe
December 13th, 2018

MSNBC- In his latest interview with MSNBC, the moderate Senator from Colorado said he was thinking of running for president of the United States. Michael Bennet was first elected in 2010 after being appointed in 2009. Bennet had an easier than expected reelection and after his reelection in 2016, President Obama called him one of the future leaders of the Democratic party.

Bennet is looking to run for president in a very crowded field where there will be many much higher profile candidates than him like Bernie, Biden, and Beto who are all the current frontrunners national and in many of the early states. Bennet might also be running against another Coloradoan in the race if John Hickenlooper makes the jump into the national spotlight.

FiveThirtyEight reports that Bennet's base of support would have to be a party insider since he is moderate with little appeal to millennials or African-Americans. Bennet might also do better than expected with Hispanic voters who make up a significant percentage of voters in his home state. To win with anyone though, Bennet will have to spread his name recognition which is very much lacking nationwide but unlike Hickenlooper, Bennet has a big war chest already built up from his 2016 senate run which can transfer to his presidential bid.



Gallup Poll of Democrats Nationally from December 11th to 15th
Sample Size: 5,839
Joe Biden: 18.5%
Bernie Sanders: 18.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 14.3%
Kamala Harris: 9.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 6.4%
Kristen Gillibrand: 5.7%
Sherrod Brown: 4.8%
Amy Klobuchar: 2.9%
Michael Bloomberg: 2.3%
Cory Booker: 1.5%
John Hickenlooper: 1.3%
Michael Bennet: 1.2%
Julian Castro: 0.7%
John Delaney: 0.4%
Terry McAullife: 0.3%
Tim Ryan: 0.2%
Richard Ojeda: 0.2%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Undecided: 11.9%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 27, 2019, 09:09:51 am
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Bill Weld For President Rumors
December 30th, 2018

Boston Herald- Former Governor of Massachusetts and former vice-presidential nominee for the Libertarian party is taking a trip to some early voting states spurring rumors of a run for the presidency. Bill Weld is visiting the key state of New Hampshire which is an early voting primary state which some political pundits point to show that Weld may be thinking of running as a Republican which he was till he was chosen by Former Governor Gary Johnson to be his VP choice at the 2016 Libertarian convection. Still, many believe Weld is more likely to run in his current party, the Libertarian party since New Hampshire is not only an early primary state but also a highly independent state.

If Weld does decide he will run for president as a Libertarian, he could face some trouble since many in the party don't believe he is a true Libertarian but he is just a moderate Republican. There was also resistance to his Vice-Presidential bid at the convection too where it took two ballots to get him on the ticket with Johnson. Even more worrisome for Weld is that in the latest online poll from A Libertarian Future, Weld was only in second behind Austin Petersen who was the runner up in 2016. Petersen has shown he won't run again and there is little to doubt that that isn't true.


Libertarian Future Online Libertian 2020 National Poll from December 17th to 25th
Sample Size: 194
Austin Petersen: 27%
Bill Weld: 21%
Justin Amash: 17%
John McAfee: 11%
Larry Sharpe: 9%
Adam Kokesh: 5%
Mark Sanford: 2%
Sam Sedar: 2%
Arvin Vohra: 1%
Sam Sedar: 1%


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Elizabeth Warren is Exploring a Bid
December 31st, 2018

CNN- Today in a short four-minute video posted on Facebook, Senator Elizabeth Warren announced her exploratory committee for president of the United States of America. Warren is the second to announce an exploratory committee after Former HUD Sectary Julian Castro, who started his on December 12t. This means, if she makes the jump, Warren would be the fourth candidate in the race after Andrew Yang, Former Congressmen John Delaney and State Senator Richard Ojeda. Still, this is by no means an official launch though it almost means the candidate will launch after exploring a bid and creating some organization for the candidate once they officially launch their bid.

Warren is a progressive and many groups like moveon.org tried to draft in the 2016 presidential election with no luck but Warren believes 2020 is her chance. Still, many political pundits say that Warren missed her oppurintory in 2016 and will be fighting for both the progressive and women's vote which will not only take a large organization but also large amounts of money which may be hard since she won't be taking any political action committee money.

Republican strategist are ready for a Warren to run especially after she failed attempt at showing her DNA test which leads to one of the worst weeks, Warren has ever had in politics and severely hurt her chances at the nomination. Republicans also believe Warren will be able to be attacked like Hillary Clinton was in 2016 especially after looking at both women's unfavorability among voters.

Warren has yet set a date for an official announcement but the other candidate who has formed an exploratory committee, Julian Castro, is set to announce a bid for president on the 13th of January.



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Who will take on Trump in 2020?
January 5th, 2019

The Bulwark- With the Government shutdown and after one of the biggest election loses for Republicans, a buzz about a potential primary against Trump is floating around in the air. Here is a list of his biggest challenges.

Former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis (R-WA)- Mattis has been a strong critic of Trump's foreign policy especially when Trump decided to remove troops from Syria which prompted Mattis' exit and a few weeks ago. If he decided to run, Mattis could win over defense hawks like Senator Lindsey Graham and Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois. Still, a Mattis run could be born to fail. Mattis has been an independent his whole life till he joined the Trump administration and defense and military personnel usually don't have a good record of winning presidential elections.

Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD)- Last November while most Republicans barely held on or fell out of power, Larry Hogan cruised to a second term in the highly Liberal state of Maryland. Hogan has been very critical of President Trump in the past and even blamed him for the election loss, which many Republicans would never dare do, at the Republican Governor's Association. Hogan has even fed the rumors of his potential run by going to early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Hogan could be the best chance at taking out Trump in the primary other than John Kasich because Hogan doesn't need a bunch of money right away but he can self-fund till he has gotten the funds to run for president.

Representative Justin Amash (R-MI)- Amash is an outspoken critic of President Trump from a wide range of issues especially Trump's shutdown. Amash says the government should be shut down to cut funding not to add funding. Still, Amash would be more popular and likely to do well if he ran as a Libertarian since the Wall is very popular with the Republican parties base.

Former Governor John Kasich (R-OH)- Kasich has constantly attacked Trump and has built himself a following. Kasich has started to build a campaign but his advisors that have been helping him won't say if Kasich will run as an independent or Republican. Already articles being written if Kasich should save the Republican party or save the nation by running as an independent. Kasich is probably the most likely contenders to take on Trump and most likely to beat Trump if anyone does which is still very unlikely. If he does run, Kasich would have to win in an early state like New Hampshire which is perfect for him since his better than expected finish in 2016 primary and his continued visit ever since to the state that launched his presidential campaign four years ago.



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Final Quarter of 2018 Fundraising Realsed
January 9th, 2019

USAToday- The three active Democratic candidates, two exploring Democrats and President Donald Trump all realized their fundraising for the final quarter of 2018. President Donald Trump had the highest amount of money raised followed by Representative John Delaney. Delaney was finally able to raise over one million dollars in one quarter which is 200,000 dollars more than last quarter. Still, Delaney's total seemed very small compared to the total raised by President Trump's 2020 campaign. Trump raised fifteen million dollars in the last quarter and spent five million dollars.

Following behind Delaney was Castro, Warren, Ojeda then Yang who all raised less than one million but only Andrew Yang was in the race for the whole quarter. Still, it is very impressive how much Warren and Castro raised since they have only been in the race with exploratory committees and just for a few days with Warren only being in for a few hours before the quarter ended and Warren has started to surge with a post-annoucment bump putting her in second in New Hampshire, a must win state for her.

Fundraising from Quarter four of 2018:

Donald Trump 2020 Campaign
Raised: 15.7 million
Spent: 5.3 million
Cash on Hand: 57.4 million

John Delaney 2020 Campaign
Raised: 1.3 million
Spent: 0.5 million
Cash on Hand: 1.5 million

Elizabeth Warren 2020 Exploratory Committee
Raised: 0.7 million
Spent: 0.1 million
Cash on Hand: 0.6 million

Julian Castro 2020 Exploratory Committee
Raised: 0.4 million
Spent: 0.2 million
Cash on Hand: 0.2 million

Richard Ojeda 2020 Campaign
Raised: 0.2 million
Spent: 0.1 million
Cash on Hand: 0.1 million

Andrew Yang 2020 campaign
Raised: 0.1 million
Spent: 0.2 million
Cash on Hand: 0.6 million



Princton Democratic New Hampshire Poll from December 31st to January 9th
Sample Size: 793
Bernie Sanders: 18.7%
Elizabeth Warren: 16.2%
Joe Biden: 15.1%
Kristen Gillibrand: 8.1%
Beto O'Rourke: 7.3%
Joe Kennedy III: 6.4%
Seth Moulton: 3.6%
Michael Bloomberg: 3.2%
John Hickenlooper: 3.1%
Cory Booker: 2.0%
Michael Bennet: 1.3%
Kamala Harris: 1.1%
Amy Klobuchar: 0.8%
Sherrod Brown: 0.7%
Richard Ojeda: 0.5%
Julian Castro: 0.4%
John Delaney: 0.2%
Andrew Yang: 0.1%
Undecided: 11.2%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 27, 2019, 12:25:51 pm
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Will the stars of 2018 run?
january 10th, 2019

FiveThirtyEight- Coming out of 2018, the Democratic party had many stars rise from the dirt like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar. Three of those stars who ran close races but ended up being runners up are now looking at the White House as the next goal. Beto O'Rourke, Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum all gained national attention from their runs for senator [Beto O'Rourke] and governor [Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum]. Now all are being pressured to run for the highest office of the land and they are polling fairly well when polled.

Both Gillum and Abrams have denied their interest in a run but both have started to gather strategist and Gillum has started to tour the nation. Where Gillum has gone, he has gotten strong approval like at a fundraiser with high profile Democratic donors in Washington D.C. where he got multiple people to pledge money towards a Gillum campaign if he decides to run. On the other hand, Abrams has also started to campaign after she failed in her gubertarional bid and then she failed in her bid to recount votes. Still, Democrats like Chuck Schumer have met with her pressuring her not to run for president and run for Senate instead which would be a much more winnable race. Abrams could run for Senate if she fails early enough in her presidential bid which might tempt her into taking a chance and running for president.

Unlike Abrams and Gillum, Beto O'Rourke has not denied he is looking towards the White House but he is keeping his intentions in the dark. His top advisors still don't know whether he will run or not but Beto has taken a tour of the nation excluding some early states which are making officials in those states angered at Beto. Already, multiple Draft efforts have been set up in case of a bid and all they want right now is a sign that he will make the jump or not.

Right now, the stars of 2018 are keeping everyone in the dark as they start plotting their futures which may involve a run for the White House.



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Tulsi Gabbard is running, Attacked for Anti-LGBT past
January 12th, 2019

CNN- In a townhall interview on CNN, Tulsi Gabbard announced she would be running for president of the United States of America and would have an official announcement later this month in her home state of Hawaii. Tulsi Gabbard is a veteran who, if elected, be the first veteran who served post-9/11. Gabbard has been a representative from Hawaii since 2012 and served as the vice-chair in the DNC until she resigned to endorse Bernie Sanders in 2016. Gabbard has long been a moderate progressive who has often attacked establishment Democrats and went after the chair of the DNC while she was still vice-chair for only having six debates to help Hillary Clinton. Recently she has been applauded for calling out the sitting Senator from Hawaii, Mazie Hirono for her "bigoted" questioning of a judicial nominee.

Gabbard has a long road to the White House, especially in a crowded election year. Not since President Garfield was elected as a sitting congressperson been elected to the presidency. Gabbard will also start with low polling numbers, In Iowa, she was only polling at 0.1% in the last poll. Still, as a local reporter from Iowa Starting Line reports that Tulsi Gabbard has racked up a high number of visits and has built a large number of high profile staff.

Soon after Gabbard's announcement on CNN, many LGBT activist attacked for being anti-LGBT during her time in the Hawaii state legislature. Gabbard also was attacked for praising an organization that conducted gay travasion therapy. Fellow congressmember Sean Maloney from New York came to Gabbard's defense saying that they have been friends for a long time and as many others have grown in their values over time. Gabbard also stated many of those same notes when she personally apologized in a video posted to Twitter and Facebook.



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Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 27, 2019, 04:49:35 pm
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"I am in it to win it" Julian Castro is in the ring
January 13th, 2019

The Hill- At a rally in his home state of Texas, former HUD Sectary and former Mayor of San Antonio Julian Castro announced a bid for president after a month of exploring. Castro is the first Hispanic to enter the race so far and stressed the importance of a progressive platform moving forward and beating Donald Trump in November.

Castro has earned the endorsement of his brother, Congressmen Joaquin Castro, and multiple other state Representatives from Texas but even winning Texas won't be easy for Castro. Castro might not be the only Texas candidate in the race with Beto O'Rourke still considering a bid for the office which might split the Hispanic vote into some of the Hispanic heavy states like Nevada since Beto is highly popular with Hispanic voters. Castro could also be fighting with other Hispanic potential candidates like Eric Garcetti from California. The best shot for Castro at winning an early state would have to be in Nevada where there is a Hispanic heavy population and is close to his home state.



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Kristen Gillibrand and Jay Inslee are Officially Exploring
January 15th, 2018

NBC- Today, both Senator Kristen Gillibrand and Governor Jay Inslee both put together an exploratory committee for president of the United States of America. This comes after a chaotic week for presidential campaigns with both Representative Tulsi Gabbard and Former Mayor Julian Castro announcing their bids while both Senator Sherrod Brown with his dignity of work tour and Senator Elizabeth Warren took their first big swings through the state of Iowa. Not only that but Beto O'Rourke and Lincoln Chaffee publicly floated ideas of a possible bid for the presidency while doing interviews.

Inslee has put climate change at front and center of his campaign especially attacking President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Peace Climate agreement in his first year as President. Inslee is the current Governor of Washington and was the chairmen of the DGA during the highly successful midterm elections which might help him get some early endorsements from thankful Governors. Gillibrand is the current junior senator from New York and is running on a very feminist platform. She stated she is running for all the young moms like her in the world who are trying to have it all while she announced on Stephen Colbert's late show.

Gillibrand, like Gabbard, was almost instantly attacked for her past conservative views during her time in the house. Gillibrand had an A from the NRA and was ranked as one of the most conservative Democrats which fit with her district but she did many major flip-flops when she was representing the liberal state of New York in the Senate. Gillibrand has also been attacked for being the first Democratic senator to call for the resignation of Al Franken after his sexual assault was uncovered. Gillibrand says this was a moral stand and Franken says is not mad she did it but it has lost her some profile donors in New York which she will need if she wants to stand out in the crowd.


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The First Big Name in the Field: Kamala Harris
January 21st, 2019

Fox News- In a video, like Hillary Clinton four years ago and Elizabeth Warren, Senator of California Kamala Harris launched her bid for president on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Harris also announced fourty-seven years after the first African-American women launched her bid, Representative Shirley Chisholm, and Harris even made her logo look very similar to Chisholm. Harris is already and will make African-Americans a key point in her campaign and if she wins will make history as the first African-American women. Harris is the third African-American women to run for president after Chisholm in 1972 and Former Senator Carol Mosely Braun in 2004.

Harris is the first big name candidate and is usually polling in the top five with her highest percentage coming out of Nevada where she has a short of, home field advantage and is in first place at this point. In the two crucial early states of New Hampshire and Iowa, she is relatively low compared to past elections but in the upper tier with around nine percent of the vote in each state but with her announcement it should raise a little considering a post-announcement bump which most candidates get. Harris may have a smaller bump since she is joining the race at the same time as many including other top tier candidates who are announcing exploratory committees like Kristen Gillibrand and Elizabeth Warren.

Harris is also being treated as a top tier candidate with CNN already inviting her to do a town hall in Iowa at a local university but it will be invited only which has created some tension with some early voters in the state who wished to see her on her first visit to the state.



Havard Universty Polling of National Democrats from January 21st to 22nd
Sample Size: 337
Joe Biden: 14.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 12.6%
Kamala Harris: 12.3%
Bernie Sanders: 12.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 8.7%
Kristen Gillibrand: 5.4%
Sherrod Brown: 4.1%
Andrew Gillum: 3.3%
Jay Inslee: 2.8%
Jeff Merkely: 2.3%
John Hickenlooper: 2.2%
Julian Castro: 1.9%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1.7%
Michael Bennet: 1.4%
Eric Swalwell: 0.9%
Steve Bulton: 0.7%
Terry McAulifle: 0.4%
Richard Ojeda: 0.3%
Eric Garcetti: 0.2%
Andrew Yang: 0.2%
John Delaney: 0.1%
Eric Holder: 0.0%
Undecided: 12.1%

Emerson College Nevada Democratic Polling from January 17th to 21st
Sample Size: 197
Kamala Harris: 16.9%
Beto O'Rourke: 10.5%
Joe Biden: 10.2%
Julian Castro: 7.8%
Bernie Sanders: 5.4%
Elizabeth Warren: 5.1%
John Hickenlooper: 3.7%
Kristen Gillibrand: 3.5%
Cory Booker: 2.8%
Michael Bennet: 2.3%
Eric Swalwell: 2.1%
Jay Inslee: 1.7%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.4%
Sherrod Brown: 1.3%
Marianna Williamson: 1.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 0.8%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.6%
John Delaney: 0.5%
Andrew Yang: 0.3%
Richard Ojeda: 0.1%
Undecided: 21.9%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 27, 2019, 10:04:36 pm
Marianne Williamson Annouces Long Shot Bid for Presidency
January 28th, 2019

Fox News- Spirituality Guro and one of Oprah's closest friend is launching a longshot bid for the White House. Marianne Williamson announced in a rally in California that she would run after two months of having an exploratory committee. Williamson has a very radical platform including paying African-Americans reparations. Williamson is a long shot candidate who has been included in only one recent poll in Nevada where she polled at 0.6%. Still, Williamson has been described as a very good speaker and has the money and backing from Oprah to help win her some support.


American Research Group Polling of Iowa Democrats from January 28th to 31st
Sample Size: 736
Joe Biden: 15.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 12.6%
Bernie Sanders: 11.5%
Amy Klobuchar: 7.4%
Sherrod Brown: 6.2%
Kamala Harris: 6.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 5.2%
Cory Booker: 2.7%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.5%
Michael Bennet: 1.8%
Steve Bullock: 1.1%
John Delaney: 1.0%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.7%
Eric Swalwell: 0.6%
Seth Moulton: 0.5%
Richard Ojeda: 0.5%
Julian Castro: 0.2%
Andrew Yang: 0.1%
Marianne Williamson: 0.0%
Undecided: 24.0%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: UWS on January 28, 2019, 12:09:05 am
When will Biden make his announcement in your TL?


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 28, 2019, 06:38:41 am
When will Biden make his announcement in your TL?
I will probably have most of the bigger names wait til March or April or even May for Biden and Beto


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 28, 2019, 05:41:06 pm
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Tulsi Gabbard annouces Endorsments and Attacks Harris
January 31st, 2019

Des Moines Register- With her first official trip to Iowa after announcing her bid and before her official announcement in Hawaii, Tulsi Gabbard spent it attacking Harris and earning endorsements. Gabbard's campaign announced in an email that former Representative Collen Hanabusa had endorsed her and would introduce her at her announcement rally in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Gabbard also was endorsed by former Gubertarional Candidate Chris King from Florida. Gabbard touted King's endorsement while touring Iowa with her pro-religious message. King was an evangelical Democrat and touted that during his bid for governor in Florida. King's endorsement could also help push Gillum away from a run since King was also Gillum's choice for Litenuet Govenors candidate.

While Gabbard was in Iowa she toured Des Moines and West Des Moines and held a meet in greet in a local home. In the most recent poll, Gabbard was polling at a little above 2% but her pro-religious liberty message could win over the highly religious state of Iowa. Gabbard is polling above four other announced candidates, John Delaney, Richard Ojeda, Andrew Yang, and Marianna Williamson.

With her pro-religious message, Gabbard attacked Harris for her religious bigotry in a judicial hearing which she did earlier in the year against one of the sitting senators from Hawaii. Gabbard stated that bigoted has no place in the White House no matter if the resident is Republican or Democrat. This follows attacks from Delaney on Harris and now Gabbard is joining in the attacks against the current frontrunner that is running. She also realised a video on Youtube and planning to air parts of it in Iowa and New Hampshire: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0NVcUkO19A



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John Hickenlooper is going to run, Hillary Clinton is leaving door open
Febuary 12th, 2019

New York Times- With the debates starting in June, Democrats are being rushed into the race especially candidates with lower name recognition so they can spread their ideas without being overshadowed by higher-profile candidates like Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke. Another candidate is now joining the race, Former Governor of Colorado John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper was rumored interested in a joint bid with John Kasich as independents but in his last visit to Iowa, he shut down that rumor saying Kasich doesn't support planned parenthood.

Hickenlooper is running on a moderate agenda which is how he led in Colorado but he did make some conservative Democrats angry when he tried to pass gun reform laws. Hickenlooper is not the only one running on a pagamentic Democratic platform. The first candidate in the race, Congressmen John Delaney, is also running on nearly the same platform and is polling around one percent in Iowa. Hickenlooper was not even included in the last poll in Iowa but nationally, he was sitting around one percent.

Hickenlooper isn't the only candidate making news, a former candidate Hillary Clinton is also making news with her floating a potential bid. Clinton polled at five percent in the last poll she was included in but many thought she wouldn't even dare running again after losing to Donald Trump in 2016. Clinton has done multiple tours around the nation and has started telling advisors that the door is not closed yet. Whether or not Clinton runs won't change the race much since the race will be so crowded.



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Mayor De Blasio annouced Exploratory Commitee
Febuary 13th, 2019

270ToWin- This year it seems for every state, it has two candidates like a political noah's ark. Recently, we have John Hickenlooper jump in the race while Michael Bennet considered a bid, both are from Colorado. In Maryland, Larry Hogan and Martin O'Malley are consdiring bids while John Delaney is running. Califronia already has two candidates, Marianna Williamson and Kamala Harris. Ohio has John Kasich, Tim Ryan and Sherrod Brown all thinking of a run. Massachuetts has both Seth Moulton and Elizabeth Warren consdering a run. Now New York is about to have it's "Noah's Ark" moment with both Kristen Gillibrand and now, mayor Bill De Blasio both exploaring a bid.

Today, De Blasio annouced his exploratory commitee and joing an already crowded field. De Blasio will start towards an already crowded bottom as more high profile candidates try to gain the upper hand and the lower candidates are just trying to get even a breath of air in. De Blasio has yet to be inculded in a poll of the candidates in the race but one thing does look up for De Blasio, fundraising. De Blasio is one of the few candidates yet to write off political action commitee money and for good reason for his campaign, he has strong donor base from his previous runs and may win over New York Fincial Market.


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Gillum may not run, Considering Endorsment of De Blasio or Sanders
Febuary 16th, 2019

Miami Herald- Starting the year, former Mayor Andrew Gillum looked almost certain to run. Gillum has kept all his advisors on pay role from his Gubertarional campaign and started to campaign nationally but just a month into the new year, Gillum is know uncertain about a white house after failing in his bid for governor against Ron DeSantis.

In his most recent interview with MSNBC, Gillum stated that he was unsure about a run and probaly wouldn't make the jump.  After that Gillum said that if he didn't make a run for the presidency then his endorsment is either going to Senator Bernie Sander who propelled Gillum to a primary or Mayor Bill De Blasio who recently launched an expolartory commitee and helped campaign for Gillum while he was dealing with storm damage during the campaign. If Gillum does endorse either of those candidates, it would be a huge asset with a huge voter data base from his governor's run. Gillum would also attarct African-Americans to either of those campaigns which is benfitelly to two campaigns that will probaly struggle winning over African-Americans.



Gallup Poll of South Carolina Democrats from Febuary Febuary 13th to 16th
Sample Size: 841
Joe Biden: 17.3%
Kamala Harris: 14.1%
Cory Booker: 13.7%
Eric Holder: 9.8%
Terry McAullife: 7.3%
Andrew Gillum: 5.4%
Beto O'Rourke: 5.1%
Bernie Sanders: 3.3%
Kristen Gillibrand: 2.9%
Seth Moulton: 2.5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 0.9%
Michael Bennet: 0.9%
John Hickenlooper: 0.7%
Richard Ojeda: 0.6%
Bill De Blasio: 0.4%
John Delaney: 0.3%
Julian Castro: 0.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.1%
Marianna Williamson: 0.1%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Undecided: 12.4%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: NyIndy on January 28, 2019, 06:04:37 pm
This is such a good TL! Loving how detailed it is!


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 28, 2019, 08:25:36 pm
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Two Midwest Favorite Sons Annouce Bids: Klobuchar and Brown
Febuary 17th, 2019

Sioux City Journal- Yesterday, Senator Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota announced her bid for president of the United States. Klobuchar is polling relatively high in the neighboring state of Iowa, the first voting state. Still, Klobuchar has gotten bad publicity recently and was called T-Paw 2020, referring to the failed campaign of former Governor Tim Pawlenty. Many Democratic strategists believe Klobuchar is the best way for Democrats to win back the blue wall that fell in 2016 and to win the White House with a woman on top of the ticket. Klobuchar may have a tough time if she doesn't stick out but she is very good at retail politics like another candidate, John Hickenlooper, and is very popular in her home state of Colorado.

In her announcement rally, Klobuchar went after President Trump saying he has yet to give legitimate facts regarding our border and is using it as a political stunt to win the nomination. With the government again, Klobuchar also went after the prolonged shutdowns in the Trump white house calling it a dysfunctional government with a dysfunctional leader.

Klobuchar wasn't the only midwestern joining the race with Senator Sherrod Brown from Ohio jumping in the race today in a rally in his home state, Ohio. Brown is constantly polling around the same level with Klobuchar and both need good showings to prove they are strong candidates. Brown launched a dignity of work tour early this year to explore a bid. A common theme for Brown is working class, Midwestern. Brown could win over some supporters from other competitors who are playing very similar themes like Richard Ojeda but Ojeda welcomed Brown to the race and said, "The voters know who the real working class candidate is and when caucus day comes around, you will see Ojeda winning".

Ojeda has started to shift his strategy away from a needed win or needing to do well in Iowa to a fifty state strategy which could hurt him but help him in national polls. While Klobuchar and Brown need to focus on Iowa, Ojeda may want to focus on Iowa and South Carolina as a backup since South Carolina has a large veteran population



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DNC Annouces Primary Scheadule and Debate Scheadule
Febuary 18th, 2019

The Hill-Democrat National Committee Chairmen Tom Perez officially announced the primary schedule and debates schedule which would start in June. The early debates are partially to blame for so many candidates announcing much earlier than in 2016 and 2008. There will be 12 debates in the primary season which is just six more than in 2016 but much less than in the 2012 Republican primary and 2004 Democratic primary. For the primary election, more than seventy percent of the delegates will be allocated by the time March is over.


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Harris, Delaney and Ojeda annouced first endorsment
Febuary 21st, 2019

Iowa Starting Line-Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard was the first to announce her first round of endorsements and now three more candidates are touting their first endorsements.

Congressmen John Delaney emailed a list of three endorsements from former congress members who all will be campaigning with him in either Iowa or New Hampshire. Delaney would be campaigning in Iowa with former congressmen Brad Ashford from Nebraska and current congressmen David Trone from Delaney's former district while a former Republican and former congressmen Richard L. Hanna in New Hampshire. Delaney has spent most of his campaign in Iowa and started advertising well before even the Midterms but has taken some time in New Hampshire.

State Senator Richard Ojeda has fewer endorsements then Delaney and less politically powerful than Delaney but shows that Ojeda can win over some political officials. Ojeda was endorsed by two former congressional candidates like himself. Randy Bryce and Krystal Ball, both like Ojeda gained fame during their runs for office but neither gained the office they were running for. Bryce could help Ojeda continue to win over union voters which will be a key base for Ojeda.

Senator Kamala Harris had much more endorsements then both Ojeda and Delaney but that comes as no surprise as Harris is doing almost ten times better than Delaney in Iowa at this point. Harris earned the endorsement of Congressmen Ted Lieu, Tony West who was the former Attorney General and Harris brother in Law and was endorsed by Mayor of Oakland Libby Schaaf. Though many powerful Californians are endorsing Harris, some are holding out to see if either Congressmen Eric Swalwell or Governor Gavin Newsom would run.



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De Blasio officially Launches Campaign, Gillum Suprises Pundits and Annouces Bid while Tulsi Gabbard gains momuntum
Febuary 29th, 2019

Tampa Bay Times- After just two weeks in the exploratory phase of the campaign and one trip to New Hampshire, the mayor of New York is running for President. Bill De Blasio has only been included been in one major poll of South Carolina where he obtained just 0.4% but De Blasio main target will be in New Hampshire. A very independent and very progressive state could be strong for De Blasio especially if he runs a good campaign.

A potential endorser of De Blasio has decided to run for president himself surprising pundits. Mayor Andrew Gillum looked like he was out of the race but now he is throwing his hat in the ring after floating the idea of a potential endorsement of either Bernie Sander or De Blasio. Gillum became a rising star after the 2018 elections but he ended up losing a close race and then hurting himself by requesting a recount based on little evidence. Still, Gillum has had relatively high polling in states like South Carolina where he was up to six percent in the last poll.

Gillum, nor anyone in the field is rising as fast as Tulsi Gabbard, the congresswomen from Hawaii who declared her bid last month. Gabbard has been able to set herself apart by campaigning on religious freedom and her service to this country. In the deep south, Gabbard is doing decently even though her views don't match very well with the more moderate establishment and African-American communities in South Carolina.



CNN Poll of Iowa Democrats from February 27th to 30th, 2019
Sample Size: 1,435
Joe Biden: 15.2%
Sherrod Brown: 10.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 10.2%
Amy Klobuchar: 9.7%
Bernie Sanders: 8.4%
Elizabeth Warren: 5.8%
Kamala Harris: 5.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.0%
Cory Booker: 3.5%
Michael Bloomberg: 3.3%
Andrew Gillum: 2.6%
John Delaney: 2.4%
Michael Bennet: 1.3%
Steve Bullock: 1.1%
Tim Ryan: 1.1%
John Hickenlooper: 1.0%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.9%
Seth Moulton: 0.6%
Julian Castro: 0.4%
Richard Ojeda: 0.4%
Jay Inslee: 0.2%
Bill De Blasio: 0.1%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Marianna Williamson: 0.0%
Undecided: 11.4%



Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 28, 2019, 09:56:08 pm
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Pete Buttigieg for President 2020
Febuary 31st, 2019

MSNBC- After a month of having an exploratory committee, the first gay major candidate is officially announcing his bid for president. Pete Buttigieg has been unable to travel to early states and a campaign was uncertain because of his father's death. Pete Buttigieg has now made it clear that he is running for president. Pete announced his intention on Morning Joe and will have a rally in Des Moines, Iowa on March 5th, 2019.

Pete got national attention when he ran for DNC chair but that could hurt his relationship with the DNC and his former rival, Chairmen Tom Perez. Pete will have to put a lot of effort into Iowa which is why announcing in Iowa is important to the campaign. Usually, midwest do very well in Iowa, look at Santorum 2012, but Pete will be competing with many other more competitive Democrats like Sherrod Brown and Amy Klobuchar. He will also be facing some dark horse candidates like Richard Ojeda.

Pete's entrance into the race makes the field at thirteen and more candidates are stilling looking at White House which could break the record created by the Republican Party in 2016 with seventeen serious candidates.



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Governor Hogan Won't Challenge Trump, Doesn't Rule Out Indepent Run With Kasich
March 3rd, 2019

Baltimore Sun- After rumors of a presidential run, Governor Larry Hogan is firmly saying he will not challenge President Trump in the Republican primary. Hogan has been a constant critic of president Trump from immigration to debt. At the annual gather of Republican Governors, where Hogan is vice-chair, Hogan blamed Trump for the losses in the midterms.

Rumors of a potential bid started after the attacks but the rumors really started to build after he started to travel to the early caucus state of Iowa. Yesterday, Hogan put to rest those rumors and said, "I have no plans on a primary of President Trump, my focus is on the state of Maryland and keeping up the progress we have made." After that, Hogan was asked if he would run independent or run on a ticket with Former Governor John Kasich who is also floating a bid. Hogan responded by saying, "Maryland and America is my first priority and everything except primary President Trump is on the table. If I think running for president helps America the most then I will run but I haven't truly looked at that yet."

Hogan removing himself from the list of potential candidates challenging President Trump may relieve some pressure but he still has harsh critics that may have a big enough ego to run like Former Governor Chris Christie.



Fox News Poll of General Election inculding Independents from March 1st to 5th,2019
Sample Size: 946
Generatic Democrat: 45.6%
Donald Trump (R-NY)/Mike Pence (R-IN): 41.3%
Generatic Independent: 13.1%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 29, 2019, 06:09:07 pm
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Congressmen Delaney wins Support of Iowa Democrat County Chairs
March 6th, 2019

Iowa Starting Line- After two years in the campaign, Congressmen John Delaney is starting to pick up steam in the race as other big names start to join the name. Already, Delaney has visited all ninety-nine counties in Iowa. Most recent winners of the Iowa caucus have visited all counties in the all-important state, see Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, and Barack Obama. Now that vist to those counties are paying off. Today, Delaney is touting three powerful new endorsements.

Three Democratic county chairs from heavily Republican counties are endorsing the congressmen. Donna Crum, Nancy Camardo and Twayla Peacock, who are the chairs for Mills, Wayne and Van Burne county Democrats and pointed to the lack of Democrats attention on switching former Trump voters back to the party. They also called out neglecting Democratic voters because they were in 'red counties' in the joint statement they realised. The statement went on to urge candidates to support a unifying candidate which is why they were endorsing John Delaney.

This is a big endorsement for Delaney who has so far been very neglected by media and overshadowed by the bids of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and other higher-profile candidates. This shows John Delaney's long campaign is working to bring voters to their campaign. Delaney's campaign also has been much more successful than others thought. Though Delaney is polling below one percent nationally, he has been able to pick his polling Iowa up to just under Tulsi Gabbard who has a lot of momentum after going after Kamala Harris. This shows on the campaign trail where a lot of his events have become standing room only even for his wife, April Delaney, which is unheard of so early in the campaign.



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O'Malley Rules Out Anouther Bid and Endorses Potential Candidate Beto O'Rourke; Follows O'Rourke winning Moveon.org straw poll
March 7th, 2019

NBC- In an opinion piece to the Des Moines Register, former 2016 presidential candidate and former Governor Martin O'Malley announced he would not run again for president. O'Malley in recent weeks looks as if he wouldn't make the jump for another bid after dropping out in 2016 after only winning one percent in the Iowa caucus. O'Malley could have been a strong candidate in 2020 though since he unlike many candidates already had an operation in place and high name recognition in Iowa. On his way out of the race, O'Malley endorsed the potential candidacy of Beto O'Rourke, the former congressmen from Texas.

O'Rourke has started falling in the polls after being in the top three since the midterms where O'Rourke lost a close race to Ted Cruz in Texas. O'Malley's endorsement could help turn around O'Rourke's falling polls and winning the moveon.org poll could too. Though O'Rourke didn't reach the fifty percent to gain the endorsement, O'Rourke did win the straw poll of progressive voters. This is a poll Bernie Sanders won four years earlier.

The full straw poll results are shown below


Moveon.org Straw Poll
Sample Size: 7,816
Beto O'Rourke: 1,325
Joe Biden: 1,069
Bernie Sanders: 842
Kamala Harris: 801
Elizabeth Warren: 647
Amy Klobuchar: 489
Michael Bloomberg: 361
Sherrod Brown: 325
Tulsi Gababard: 307
Stacey Abrams: 276
Joe Kennedy III: 256
Cory Booker: 222
Bill De Blasio: 218
Kristen Gillibrand: 135
Andrew Gillum: 124
Marianna Williamson: 101
Jay Inlsee: 97
Julian Castro: 95
Pete Buttigieg: 90
Eric Swalwell: 83
John Hickenlooper: 82
Mitch Landreiu: 57
Andrew Yang: 32
John Delaney: 31
Andrew Yang: 15
Tim Ryan: 11
Terry McAuliffe: 4
Steve Bullock: 1


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Senator Gillibrand finnally annouces Bid endorsed by Cuomo; Swalwell Plans Annoucment Next Week
March 9th, 2019

New York Times- Anouther heavyweight is now in the 2020 field after a long time of exploring a bid. Senator Kristen Gillibrand, the junior senator, is now running for president. Gillibrand is joining the field in the middle of the pack. Latest polls of the field in Iowa show Gillibrand with around three or four percent which is just above some dark horse candidates like Tulsi Gabbard and John Delaney. Gillibrand is polling much higher in New Hampshire where she is near ten percent and has a much bigger operation.

Following her official announcement, Gillibrand received the endorsement of Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York. Cuomo, in his endorsement, went after the other new yorker in the race, Bill De Blasio. Cuomo and De Blasio have had a long rivalry and the endorsement of Gillibrand shows this clearly. In his attacks, Cuomo said, "it is time for women as our president not someone with a huge ego like De Blasio and Trump."

Gillibrand wasn't the only one joining the presidential race, Swalwell is planning on officially announcing his presidential campaign next week in Washington D.C. as he rails against the current administration. Swalwell could have a winnable campaign since the early California primary but he will have heavy competition with fifteen candidates currently in the race.



Universty of New Hampshire Poll of New Hampshire Democrats from March 8th to 10th
Sample Size: 492
Bernie Sanders: 17.5%
Joe Biden: 12.8%
Kristen Gillibrand: 11.6%
Elizabeth Warren: 11.1%
Joe Kennedy III: 7.4%
Beto O'Rourke: 6.3%
John Hickenlooper: 5.2%
Kamala Harris: 4.6%
Michael Bloomberg: 3.5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.3%
Cory Booker: 3.1%
Bill De Blasio: 2.4%
Seth Moulton: 2.2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2.1%
Tim Ryan: 1.7%
Sherrod Brown: 1.2%
Andrew Gillum: 0.8%
Julian Castro: 0.6%
Terry McAullife: 0.4%
Andrew Yang: 0.3%
John Delaney: 0.3%
Marianna Williamson: 0.2%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.1%
Richard Ojeda: 0.1%
Eric Swalwell: 0.0%
Undecided: 1.2%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 29, 2019, 10:57:47 pm
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Swalwell earns endorsments but Many Califronians Support Harris
March 11th, 2019

Politico- Congressmen Eric Swalwell is officially announcing his bid this week and has earned the endorsement of two freshmen congressmembers, Katie Hill and Harley Rouda. Still, California is turning their back on the new candidate and are either waiting for an announcement from Eric Garcetti or endorsing Kamala Harris.

Twelve state assembly members from California are now endorsing Harris and two of the most powerful politicians in California are also endorsing her bid. The state treasurer, Fiona May, and the Linteunt Governor, Eleni Kowalski are both endorsing Harris bid over Swalwell or a potential run by Eric Garcetti that is looking less likely to happen as time goes on. The latest poll coming out of California does show that Harris is winning by a wide margin in the state which could help her if she suffers early loses. Swalwell is in a distant third place with Garcetti closely behind him in fourth.


CNN Poll of Califronia Democrats from March 10th to 11th
Sample Size: 297
Kamala Harris: 27.1%
Joe Biden: 15.4%
Eric Swalwell: 14.9%
Eric Garcetti: 10.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 9.8%
Bernie Sanders: 4.5%
Elizabeth Warren: 4.4%
Cory Booker: 2.3%
Kristen Gillibrand: 2.1%
Marianna Williamson: 1.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1.1%
John Hickenlooper: 0.9%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.9%
Michael Bennet: 0.8%
Sherrod Brown: 0.6%
Julian Castro: 0.5%
Amy Klobuchar: 0.5%
Andrew Gillum: 0.3%
Bill De Blasio: 0.3%
Terry McAullife: 0.2%
Andrew Yang: 0.1%
John Delaney: 0.1%
Richard Ojeda: 0%
Undecided: 1.9%


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Tulsi Gabbard's campaign crumbling; Harris hit on D.A. record
March 15th, 2018

FiveThirtyEight- Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard gained early momentum and has risen in the polls but her campaign is now falling down around her. Politico reported early this month that Gabbard wasn't supposed to announce his bid on CNN and her team wasn't ready for the announcement which resulted in the consvertery being unopposed by the campaign except by an apology video. Not only is Gabbard running for president but she also has to make sure her seat in Hawaii is safe after receiving a challenger in her house race. Gabbard had troubles early on to, both her campaign manager and her consulting firm where let go or fired even before the official launch.

Gabbard still has a chance to win even with this early rise and stumble for her campaign. The reason she had momentum in the first place was because of her speaking skills and standing out in the field. Gabbard still has twelve debates and a good operation in early states.

Gabbard isn't the only candidate with problems, Senator Kamala Harris has faced attacks for her time as D.A. in Los Angles. A viral video has been released of Harris bragging about her threating parents of jail time for children abstances. Many people pointed out how people in poverty are much more likely to have higher abstances and the only thing this does was send more people to jail. Harris already has faced troubles with her attorney general record and now this has been another thrown in her side.



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Seth Moulton, Tim Ryan and Michael Bloomberg Launch Campaigns
March 21st, 2019

The Hill- In the first time in history, three major party candidates all announced their presidential campaigns on the same day. Congressmen Tim Ryan and Seth Moulton and Mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg all annouced at three different rallies today. Bloomberg annouced in New York City and would be the second New York City mayor to join the race after Bill De Blasio. Moulton annouced in Manchester, New Hampshire which will be a key state in his presidential run. Moulton point his time in the military as a key point to his annoucment and he will make that a key part of his campaign which could work to win over voters in South Carolina which is a veteran heavy state. Ryan launched his campaign in Akron, OH and talked about Trump's failure in the blue-collar communities and blamed the closing of factories in Akron, Ohio on Trump.

Pundits and political stragist pointed at Ryan's speech as the best of the three speeches but most all say that Bloomberg is the only one with a real shot at the nomination. Still, Bloomberg will have challenges as the Democratic party keeps moving to the left as Bloomberg is a centrist and a white, old man while the party is looking for diversty.

Moulton has the advantage of youth, a youthful family and his military background while Ryan's advantage is from being a blue-collar candidate. The other candidate blue-collar candidate, Richard Ojeda, went after Ryan soon after his speech. Ojeda stated, "coming from a blue-collar district doesn't make you part of the blue-collar class. Ryan has spent his life in politics while I was defending our country and while the people in the blue-collar neighbors suffered.

Officially, the field is at a historic high of eighteen candidates, beating the previous record of seventeen from the 2016 Republican field which quickly diwndled once the primary started.



Rassmumen Poll of National Democrats from March 13th to 21st
Sample Size: 2,594
Joe Biden: 12.6%
Bernie Sanders: 12.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 9.9%
Kamala Harris: 7.2%
Kristen Gillibrand: 6.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 5.6%
Sherrod Brown: 5.3%
Amy Klobuchar: 5.3%
Jay Inslee: 3.1%
Andrew Gillum: 2.5%
Michael Bloomberg: 2.2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.0%
Michael Bennet: 1.3%
Cory Booker: 1.1%
John Hickenlooper: 1.0%
Julian Castro: 1.0%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.9%
Terry McAullife: 0.8%
Tim Ryan: 0.7%
Seth Moulton: 0.7%
John Delaney: 0.6%
Eric Swalwell: 0.5%
Bill De Blasio: 0.4%
Marianna Williamson: 0.3%
Richard Ojeda: 0.2%
Andrew Yang: 0.2%
Undecided: 16.6%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 30, 2019, 12:23:49 pm
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Cory Booker Launches Presidential Campaign
March 22nd, 2019

Fox News- The Long awaited campaign of Cory Booker has officially launched. With a rally in New Jersey, the junior senator from the state announced his bid for president of the United States. Booker has been planning a bid for the presidency for a little over a year and started assembling a staff by June last year and visited early states multiple times during the midterms. Booker is the third Democrat in the race after Kamala Harris and Andrew Gillum to be an African-American but he might not be the last if Eric Holder makes the jump into the field. The Democrats are looking for a diverse candidate this year but Booker is in a very diversified field, including five women, one Hindu, one Asian-America, three millennials and one Hispanic.

Booker has constantly been polling in the single digits and in what some call, the second-tier which is right below the frontrunners which are usually Harris, Joe Biden, Beto O'Rourke and Bernie Sanders. Harris could be falling out of the frontrunners after her campaign started to fall after problems in her past came out and after her surge from her excellent rollout started to end. Booker is right now, near other candidates like Kristen Gillibrand, Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet, and Tulsi Gabbard.

Booker could have trouble in the field as neither Iowa or New Hampshire looks like a strong state for him. In both, he has been polling in the bottom near one percent if he got polled. Booker may choose to skip the two early states and focus on a strong state like South Carolina where he is polling well and in the top five.



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Real Clear Politics Launches Average Polling
March 25th, 2019

Real Clear Politics- As we have done with past presidential elections, the Real Clear Politics will keep an average of all accepted polling of the Democratic field. Below is the first average of the potential field of Democrats in the first two early states and nationally:

RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Joe Biden: 14.2%
Bernie Sanders: 11.4%
Beto O'Rourke: 10.1%
Kamala Harris: 7.5%
Kristen Gillibrand: 5.3%
Amy Klobuchar: 5.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 4.6%
Sherrod Brown: 3.8%
Cory Booker: 3.1%
Andrew  Gillum: 2.9%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.4%
Jay Inslee: 2.2%
Michael Bloomberg: 1.7%
Michael Bennet: 1.2%
John Hickenlooper: 1.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 1.1%
Julian Castro: 1.0%
Terry McAullife: 0.9%
Seth Moulton: 0.6%
Tim Ryan: 0.5%
John Delaney: 0.5%
Jeff Merkley: 0.3%
Bill De Blasio: 0.2%
Richard Ojeda: 0.2%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%
Eric Holder: 0.1%
Marianna Williamson: 0.1%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Undecided: 22.8%

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 19.2%
Beto O'Rourke: 10.9%
Amy Klobuchar: 10.3%
Sherrod Brown: 8.6%
Bernie Sanders: 6.7%
Kamala Harris: 4.2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 4.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 3.4%
John Delaney: 3.2%
Tim Ryan: 2.7%
Andrew Gillum: 2.1%
Cory Booker: 1.7%
Michael Bloomberg: 1.3%
John Hickenlooper: 1.2%
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.1
Michael Bennet: 1.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 1.0%
Seth Moulton: 0.7%
Julian Castro: 0.6%
Andrew Yang: 0.5%
Bill De Blasio: 0.4
Jay Inslee: 0.2%
Richard Ojeda: 0.2%
Jeff Merkely: 0.1%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%
Marianna Williamson: 0.0%
Terry McAullife: 0.0%
Undecided: 14.4%

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Bernie Sanders: 14.9%
Elizabeth Warren: 11.4%
Kristen Gillibrand: 8.7%
Joe Biden: 6.5%
Beto O'Rourke: 6.2%
John Hickenlooper: 5.8%
Michael Bloomberg: 5.1%
Michael Bennet: 4.3%
Kamala Harris: 4.1%
Seth Moulton: 3.7%
Cory Booker: 2.6%
Bill De Blasio: 2.5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.1%
Jay Inslee: 1.3%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.2%
Sherrod Brown: 0.9%
Tim Ryan: 0.7%
Julian Castro: 0.6%
Andrew Gillum: 0.5%
Terry McAuliffe: 0.5%
Jeff Merkley: 0.3%
John Delaney: 0.2%
Marianna Williamson: 0.2%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%
Richard Ojeda: 0.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.0%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Undecided: 19.5%


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Swalwell Attacks Booker for Trump Donations
March 31st, 2019

Iowa Starting Line- To help his lagging polls after a not-so-helpful launch, Congressmen Eric Swalwell is going after the newest candidate to the race. Swalwell attacked Senator Cory Booker for holding a fundraiser with Invaka Trump in the 2014 senate race. Swalwell in a tweet this morning said, " If we are going to defeat Trump, maybe we shouldn't then elect someone who Trump supports like Cory Booker." Swalwell then sent an email to reporters went into more detail. Swalwell said that he is the anti-Trump in this race and has never accepted a check from Trump or any Trump relatives.

In 2014, Booker did accept over forty thousand dollars from the Trump family and hosted a fundraiser with them to win the primary. This attack will probably have no effect on the Booker campaign especially since almost half the Democratic and half the members of Congress have received a check from the Trump family before but it could get Swalwell name out which is much needed in this crowded field where everyone is fighting just for a few minutes of fame to launch their bid above their peers in the race.



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Gabbard, Castro, Ojeda: Are they going to make it to caucus day?

Politico- After a few weeks of falling polling, bad news and campaign staff jumping ship, will Tulsi Gabbard make it to caucus day. If we ask that then we will have to ask if Julian Castro and Richard Ojeda will make to caucus day. Will the field thin early or will the Iowa caucus cause the field to shrink?

The most likely to make it to caucus day is Gabbard out of the three candidates. Gabbard has had two big staff departures within the first few weeks of her campaign, the story about her surprise announcement angering staff and her poll numbers starting to fall after a quick rise put her campaign in quick jeopardy. Still, Gabbard has been relatively high in polls and in straw polls and she has a strong organization in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Gabbard's main benefits are her diversity and her speaking skills which still can benefit her. All Gabbard needs to do is win the debates and continue to grow her organization and strengthen fundraising then Gabbard is set to survive the next few months easily especially if she gets more momentum as she had before.

The next two candidates are much less likely to make it to caucus day if they continue on their path. Richard Ojeda could have had a strong campaign but then he set the ridiculous goal of traveling to all fifty states to campaign instead of focusing his efforts on one of the early states like Iowa which would have been a prime area for him with his pro-union message. Since launching his campaign, he has lost half of his supporters in Iowa from 0.5% to 0.2%. Ojeda has only gained two endorsements and both have little political power behind their endorsement. Unless Ojeda's fundraising is strong then there is little to point to show Ojeda making it to caucus day. Little support, little endorsement and a small amount of support in his home state.

Julian Castro is a better set than Ojeda but he could be struggling in the financial market and his low polls are hurting him. Castro has made the promise to pay everyone fifteen dollars per hour including interns. That will cost his campaign, for those thousands of dollars going to interns that probably would work for free will be taking away money from advertisements. Castro has constantly also had polling below one percent which is five times less than Gabbard. Truly, if Castro is going to make a winnable bid then he needs to not only make it to Iowa caucus day but also Nevada caucus day.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: KaiserDave on January 30, 2019, 05:25:45 pm
This is fantastic.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 30, 2019, 06:48:27 pm
This is fantastic.
Thank you!


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 30, 2019, 07:52:06 pm
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The Progressives join the race
April 4th, 2019

MSNBC- On April 2nd, Elizabeth Warren officially launched her campaign and today, another progressive launched his campaign. Senator Bernie Sanders who led a revolution and almost won the Democratic nomination launched his second bid for the presidency. Sanders will be one of the top candidates and could be called a frontrunner alongside Beto O'Rourke and Joe Biden. At this point, Sanders is in the low double-digits but is polling much lower in Iowa. Still, if Sanders does poorly in Iowa he can come back still with him leading in New Hampshire.

Warren was once considered a frontrunner but has fallen substantially since the midterm elections. Currently, Warren is sitting around five percent but is sitting in second place in New Hampshire and eight in Iowa. Warren does have a powerful operation though and has set up operations in important states for months now.



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Senator Tim Kaine Endorses Senator Amy Klobuchar
April 7th, 2019

The Hill- A once potential 2020 candidate and former Vice-Presidential nominee Tim Kaine has endorsed his fellow senator, Amy Klobuchar for president in 2020. Kaine and Klobuchar both are centrist in their party and have working-class backgrounds. Kaine and Klobuchar have worked together for seven years in senate also.

Klobuchar has been polling between fourth and third in Iowa while she is in the second-tier of candidates nationwide. This endorsement could boost Klobuchar's name recognition and solidify her support among party insiders which FiveThirtyEight says is Klobuchar's strongest supporters and this could take away some supporters from Biden who many thought would be getting the endorsement of Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia.

In the endorsement from Tim Kaine, he wrote in an email to reporters, "Amy has constantly proven her ability to handle difficult sitituontions like the ones we face today in the nation. Amy will be the leader that this nation needs at this time." Kaine went on to detail the history-making behind a Klobuchar winning. Kaine wrote, "We tried to make history in 2016 when I joined Hillary on the ticket but in 2020, we will make history by electing Amy."



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Joe Biden: 13.9% (-0.3)
Bernie Sanders: 12.8% (+1.4)
Beto O'Rourke: 9.5% (-0.6)
Kamala Harris: 7.4% (-0.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 5.6% (+0.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 5.3% (+0.0)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.1% (+0.5)
Cory Booker: 3.7% (+0.6)
Sherrod Brown: 3.6% (-0.2)
Andrew  Gillum: 3.2% (+0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.3% (-0.1)
Jay Inslee: 2.1% (-0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 1.5% (-0.2)
John Hickenlooper: 1.3%(+0.1)
Julian Castro: 1.3% (+0.3)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.1% (+0.0)
John Delaney: 1.0% (+0.6)
Michael Bennet: 1.0% (-0.1)
Seth Moulton: 0.8% (+0.2)
Terry McAullife: 0.5% (-0.4)
Tim Ryan: 0.5% (+0.0)
Bill De Blasio: 0.4% (+0.2)
Richard Ojeda: 0.3% (+0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.3% (+0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 0.1% (-0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.1% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Eric Holder: 0.0% (-0.1)
Undecided: 20.3% (-2.5)

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 19.3%  (+0.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 11.0% (+0.7)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.1% (-0.8 )
Sherrod Brown: 9.1% (+0.4)
Bernie Sanders: 7.5% (+0.8 )
Elizabeth Warren: 4.4% (+1.0)
Kamala Harris: 4.0% (-0.2)
John Delaney: 3.7% (+0.5)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.6% (-0.5)
Tim Ryan: 2.5% (-0.2)
Cory Booker: 2.4% (+0.7)
Andrew Gillum: 2.2% (+0.1)
John Hickenlooper: 1.2% (+0.0)
Michael Bloomberg: 1.1%  (-0.1)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.1% (+0.1)
Kristen Gillibrand: 0.9 (-0.2)
Julian Castro: 0.8% (+0.2)
Michael Bennet: 0.7%  (-0.4)
Seth Moulton: 0.7% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.6% (+0.1)
Bill De Blasio: 0.3% (-0.1)
Richard Ojeda: 0.3% (+0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.2% (+0.1)
Jeff Merkely: 0.1% (+0.0)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (+0.0)
Terry McAullife: 0.0% (+0.0)
Jay Inslee: 0.0% (-0.2)
Undecided: 12.2% (-2.2)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Bernie Sanders: 15.6% (+0.7)
Elizabeth Warren: 14.8% (+3.4)
Kristen Gillibrand: 8.2% (-0.5)
Beto O'Rourke: 6.3% (+0.1)
Joe Biden: 6.1% (-0.4)
John Hickenlooper: 6.0% (+0.2)
Michael Bloomberg: 5.4% (+0.3)
Kamala Harris: 4.1% (+0.0)
Seth Moulton: 3.8% (+0.1)
Michael Bennet: 3.4% (-0.9)
Bill De Blasio: 2.7% (+0.2)
Cory Booker: 2.3% (-0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 1.9% (-0.2)
Amy Klobuchar: 1.3% (+0.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.0% (-0.3)
Sherrod Brown: 0.9% (+0.0)
Tim Ryan: 0.8% (+0.1)
Julian Castro: 0.8% (+0.2)
Andrew Gillum: 0.5%
Marianna Williamson: 0.3% (+0.1)
Jeff Merkley: 0.3% (=0.0)
John Delaney: 0.2% (+0.0)
Terry McAuliffe: 0.2% (-0.3)
Eric Swalwell: 0.1% (+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 0.0% (-0.1)
Pete Buttigieg: 0.0% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 17.0% (-2.5)



Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: BigVic on January 31, 2019, 06:41:22 am
Great timeline. Largest field of candidates ever


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: Ishan on January 31, 2019, 09:00:58 am
One of my favorite TL's now, could you do a Green polling section?


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 31, 2019, 10:38:49 am
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Trump earns his first primary challenger: Bill Weld; Sam Seder annouces Libertarian bid
April 9th, 2019

Union Leader- In a rally in Concord, MA just outside of New Hampshire and the home state of the former Governor, Bill Weld announced his primary challenge of President Trump. Weld is the former Governor of Massachusetts and was the vice-presidential nominee for the Libertarians in 2016 but was a Republican up to that point. Weld even endorsed John Kasich before switching and supporting Johnson and joining him on the ticket.

In 2018, Weld endorsed multiple Libertarians across the country including some high profile Libertarians that could be running in 2020 like Larry Sharpe who lost his race for New York's governor. Still, after just a three-year stint as a Libertarian, Weld is joining the Republican party and launching a bid against a sitting president.

In his speech, Weld stated, "When I was Governor, my party stood for morals, smaller government and less debt. Sadly today, our party has abandoned morals, they have abandoned the belief of less government and less debt to win votes. Our president has shown, time and time again, that he lacks morals from locking up children to sleeping with a porn star." The morals of President Trump have constantly been a thorn in his side and many pundits have pointed to that as the door being a-jar for a primary challenge.

Weld will have a rough time if he will win especially with the RNC endorsing President Trump. His main state he will focus on will be the New Hampshire primary which borders his home state of Massachusetts. Weld has constantly held events in the early primary state which sparked the rumors of either a primary run or a Libertarian bid.

In his absence in the Libertarian field, another high profile candidate has announced his bid for the presidency. Sam Seder who host the majority report and has worked with both CNN and MSNBC is running for president in the Libertarian field. Many high profile Libertarians believe Seder is the best chance but the latest poll showed him with just seven percent of the vote.


Politico Poll of National Republicans from April 9th to April 12th
Sample Size: 576
President Donald Trump: 60.5%
John Kasich: 21.3%
Ann Coulter: 8.6%
Bill Weld: 7.1%
Undecided: 2.5%

Reason Poll of National Libertarians
Sample Size: 361
Austin Petersen: 25.7%
Justin Amash: 20.1%
John McAffee: 15.4%
Larry Sharpe: 10.8%
Adam Kokesh: 8.3%
Sam Seder: 7.6%
Avrin Vohar: 3.2%
Undecided: 8.9%


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Bernie Sanders, Bill Weld might not be able to Run in New Hampshire
April 10th, 2019

Washington Post-To register for the New Hampshire, the Democratic candidates need to be a registered Democrat and all Republicans have to be registered Republicans according to Bill Gardener who is the Sectary of State. Two candidates in the race are not running in the party they are correctly registered in. Both Senator Bernie Sanders and Former Governor Bill Weld who have put effort into New Hampshire may not even be able to run. Sanders was able to bypass this rule in 2016 by registering as a Democrat till after the New Hampshire primary but that may not work this year according to Gardner.

Sanders is currently polling in first in New Hampshire while Weld is trying to put almost all his effort in New Hampshire to take on Trump. Weld believes that if he can win enough votes to hurt Trump and give Weld momentum going into states like Vermont and Massachusetts.



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Ajamu Baraka Declares run for President
April 17th, 2019

DailyKos- With Jill Stein not running for president, the field for the green party is clear and is gaining candidates by the day. Stein's former vice-presidential candidate, Ajamu Baraka is announcing his run for president. Baraka is the third candidate in the race after Ian Schlakman and Dario Hunter. Still, the big candidates are still waiting. Jesse Ventura, the former Governor of Minnesota, has been considering the run but has danced with a run for president for the last three presidential elections and for three different parties.

The last poll shows that Ventura is in first followed by Baraka. Those are the only two candidates that have more than twenty percent in the polls, both the other candidates are much lower but the green party doesn't rely on primaries as much as other parties so only delegates support matters.


DailyKos poll of National Greens
Sample Size: 213
Jesse Ventura: 35%
Ajamu Baraka: 29%
William Kreml: 16%
Dario Hunter: 14%
Ian Schlakaman: 6%



Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: Ishan on January 31, 2019, 11:04:24 am
Thank you for following my suggestion. 


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 31, 2019, 11:44:25 am
Thank you for following my suggestion. 
You are welcome, always trying to look for ways to make the tl better


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: Traitor-crats on January 31, 2019, 11:57:10 am
Since were on the third party thing, who are the possible Constitution Party candidates :P


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 31, 2019, 01:58:44 pm
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Two more senators join the race
April 18th, 2019

New York Times- Seven senators have already joined the race and now two more senators are joining the race. Michael Bennet, the Senator from Colorado who gained national attention when he attacked Ted Cruz for his Shutdown in January, and Jeff Merkley, the Senator from Oregon, both launched their bids in their respective states over the weekend. Merkley talked about progressive values while Bennet discussed the need of bipartisanship and pragmatism in politics which is the message the other Coloradian in the race has also made the front and center in his campaign.

Merkley and Bennet both are polling within one to two percent nationwide but Bennet has somewhat strong polling in New Hampshire. Bennet has polled within four to five percent in New Hampshire which is below the other colordian, John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper is like the 2016 version of John Kasich and has based his whole centrist campaign in New Hampshire and it has started to pay off a little. Hickenlooper has started polling between six and seven percent and has a strong organization.

Merkley, on the other hand, has not much upside. Merkley could win over former Sander supporters that have not yet committed but he will be competing with Tulsi Gabbard and Elizabeth Warren who are two much stronger candidates. Merkley's strongest early state is probably New Hampshire with his progressive approach.



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Minnesota Democrat-Farmer Labor Party Endorses Amy Klobuchar
April 20th, 2019

Minnesota DFL- Today, the Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota is endorsing its home state's, Senator Amy Klobuchar. Klobuchar has proven with her service to Minnesota that she is ready to serve the nation. Klobuchar is ready to fix the nation after four years of dysfunction under President Donald Trump. Trump has allowed incompetent leaders to take control of the nation while he throws fits in the oval office when he doesn't get his way. Klobuchar has always stood by Minnesota as Trump has tried to hurt the nation like when he nominated Judge Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh is a sexual assaulter and has no place on that court and Klobuchar did everything to do to stop his nomination.

The Minnesota DFL will do everything in its power to get Klobuchar nominated and then elected. The DFL will have volunteers and staff to help Klobuchar in her campaign and will send surrogates to important states like Iowa and New Hampshire.



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Former Brown Challenger Attacks Him Over Abuse Scandel
April 21st, 2019

Columbus Dispatch- Senator Sherrod Brown and now, presidential candidate Sherrod Brown is now receiving attacks from his 2018 opponent and former Congressmen Jim Renacci. Renacci who has been continuously a critic of Brown since his close loses in the 2018 midterms especially over abortion. Renacci who is one hundred percent pro-life has attacked Brown over his support of both the New York and Virginia pro-choice legislation that allows a fetus to be killed up to the birth. Now, Renacci is once again attacking Brown over his alleged abuse against his ex-wife.

In 2018, Renacci brought this up as a hail mary and helped him raise Brown's unfavorites and was able to raise his poll numbers a small amount. Soon after the attacks, Brown and his ex-wife said it was not apporatate and is a personal issue, not a public issue. Both Brown and his ex-wife have been close friends since the nasty divorce in the 1980s. Since the early 2000's Brown has been happily married to Conny Shultz.

Now, Renacci has once again tried to attack Brown on his past relationship and has stated, "Brown is not fit for the office of president especially morally. Brown believes it is moral to kill a living human up to birth and he has physically abused his ex-wife. That is not the president that the United States deserves as its president."




RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Joe Biden: 13.1% (-0.8 )
Bernie Sanders: 13.1% (+0.3)
Beto O'Rourke: 9.5% (+0.0)
Kamala Harris: 7.6% (+0.2)
Amy Klobuchar: 6.0% (+0.4)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.7% (+0.6)
Kristen Gillibrand: 4.8% (-0.5)
Cory Booker: 4.2% (+0.5)
Andrew  Gillum: 3.9% (+0.7)
Sherrod Brown: 3.5% (-0.1)
Jay Inslee: 2.4% (+0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.1% (-0.2)
Michael Bennet: 1.9% (+0.9)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.6% (+0.5)
Michael Bloomberg: 1.5% (+0.0)
Julian Castro: 1.4% (+0.1)
John Delaney: 1.2% (+0.2)
John Hickenlooper: 0.9%(-0.4)
Tim Ryan: 0.7% (+0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 0.6% (+0.5)
Seth Moulton: 0.5% (-0.3)
Bill De Blasio: 0.5% (+0.1)
Richard Ojeda: 0.4% (+0.1)
Terry McAullife: 0.3% (-0.2)
Eric Swalwell: 0.2% (-0.1)
Andrew Yang: 0.2% (+0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.1% (+0.0)
Eric Holder: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 17.1% (-3.2)

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 18.9%  (-0.4)
Amy Klobuchar: 12.1% (+1.1)
Beto O'Rourke: 9.8% (-0.3 )
Sherrod Brown: 8.9% (-0.2)
Bernie Sanders: 8.2% (+0.7 )
Elizabeth Warren: 5.2% (+0.8 )
John Delaney: 3.8% (+0.1)
Kamala Harris: 3.7% (-0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.6% (+0.0)
Tim Ryan: 2.9% (+0.4)
Cory Booker: 2.6% (+0.2)
Andrew Gillum: 1.6% (-0.6)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.5% (+0.4)
Michael Bennet: 1.5%  (+0.8 )
John Hickenlooper: 1.3% (+0.1)
Julian Castro: 1.1% (+0.3)
Michael Bloomberg: 1.0%  (-0.1)
Kristen Gillibrand: 0.8 (-0.1)
Seth Moulton: 0.7% (+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 0.6% (+0.3)
Andrew Yang: 0.6% (+0.0)
Jeff Merkely: 0.5% (+0.4)
Eric Swalwell: 0.1% (-0.1)
Bill De Blasio: 0.1% (-0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (+0.0)
Terry McAullife: 0.0% (+0.0)
Jay Inslee: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 8.9% (-3.3)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Elizabeth Warren: 15.9% (+1.1)
Bernie Sanders: 15.8% (+0.2)
Kristen Gillibrand: 8.5% (+0.3)
John Hickenlooper: 6.2% (+0.2)
Joe Biden: 5.9% (-0.2)
Beto O'Rourke: 5.7% (-0.6)
Michael Bloomberg: 5.5% (+0.1)
Michael Bennet: 4.8% (+1.4)
Seth Moulton: 4.0% (+0.2)
Kamala Harris: 3.7% (-0.4)
Bill De Blasio: 2.5% (-0.2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.0% (+0.1)
Cory Booker: 1.9% (-0.4)
Amy Klobuchar: 1.5% (+0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 1.2% (+0.9)
Tim Ryan: 1.0% (+0.2)
Jay Inslee: 0.9% (-0.1)
Sherrod Brown: 0.8% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 0.8% (+0.0)
Andrew Gillum: 0.6% (+0.1)
John Delaney: 0.5% (+0.3)
Marianna Williamson: 0.1% (-0.2)
Pete Buttigieg: 0.0% (+0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.1% (+0.0)
Terry McAuliffe: 0.0% (-0.2)
Richard Ojeda: 0.0% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 14.0% (-3.0)


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 31, 2019, 04:53:36 pm
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First Debate Set For June 5th, 2019 on MSNBC; Candidates Set For Stage on May 25th
May 7th, 2019

MSNBC- The Democratic National Convection has stated that the first debate of the twelve will be held on June 5th which is a little less than a month away and it will be held on MSNBC in Arlington, Virginia. All Democrats that will be invited to the debates will have to poll at least one percent in the first two early states in one of five polls taken or nationwide. That means only one potential candidate will not be invited to debate and that is former Attorney General Eric Holder who has flirted with a bid but has yet to launch a bid yet.

All serious candidates and potential candidates are being invited on but they must be announced by the time of the debate. There will be two debates and it will be randomly selected, unlike the 2016 Republican debates where it was based on polling. This could help some dark horse candidates stand out like Tulsi Gabbard and Richard Ojeda.

The stage will be set by the DNC and MSNBC on May 25th.



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New Hampshire GOP Chair: Weld isn't welcome
May 9th, 2019

Concord Journal- With the entrance of William Weld in the primary, Donald Trump will have to spend his money on a potentially costly primary in New Hampshire and he has the backing of the new Republican chair of the New Hampshire Republicans. The chair of the party, Stephen Stepanek, said, "Weld turned his back on the Republican party four years ago and truly he isn't welcomed back to the party. Weld isn't welcome, he should go back to where he belongs: The Libertarian Party. If they will even accept him at this point with his flip-flopping"

Weld has been gaining traction in the Republican field and has been able to win over some establishment Republicans with his message. Still, most of those were already spectacle of Trump and voted for more centrist Republicans in 2016. They are not the majority but they could hurt Trump like a group of Christian conservative did to Bush in 1992 when Buchanan primaried him. At least one-third of the Republican party has said they will vote against Trump in the primary which is much higher than those against Bush in 1992.

In recent weeks, Weld has even been able to win over four endorsements. Weld was endorsed by Former Governor Gary Johnson, Congressmen Justin Amash, Congressmen Thomas Massie, and former New Hampshire Attorney General Tom Rath. All of those are Libertarians, Libertarian-Republicans or Establishment Republicans but they are helping to legitimize his campaign.



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Joe Biden won't make a decision till after first Debate; Inslee and McAullife Launch Bids
May 12th, 2019

AP- MSNBC annouced on May 7th that the first debate would be held and the stage would be set on May 25th which could have rushed two of the frontrunners, Beto O'Rourke and Joe Biden, to annouce their bids to make a spot on the first debate. Now, Biden has annouced that no decision for a presidential bid has yet been reached nor will it by the time of the first debate. This could hurt his bid that has already been falling in the polls more and it turns attention away from his potential bid to an underdog who performs better than expected. On the other hand, this could also help, Biden's potential bid since Biden has never been a strong debater and announcing soon after the debate would take away any momentum to the frontrunners.

Two other candidates who could have been rushed by the deadline joined the field instead of pushing the debate off. Former Governor of Virginia and Former DNC Chairmen Terry McAullife and Governor of Washington and former DGA Chairmen Jay Inslee both announced their bids during the week in New Hampshire. Inslee and McAullife both started off reasonable in the polls but their prolonged decision making cut some of the support as other campaigns were getting kicked off the ground. McAullife and Inslee both discussed the importance of experience at their launches but Inslee took a much more aggressive approach to climate change which could hurt him in the midwest especially in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia which are heavy coal states. This could also hurt him with the manufacturing industry and unions which will end up costing him votes in the crucial first state of Iowa.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on January 31, 2019, 08:01:23 pm
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Beto For President; Holder is Out, Endorses Gillum
May 21st, 2019

Des Moines Register- After months of consideration of running for president after a failed bid for Senate, former Congressmen Beto O'Rourke is running. For the past few months, Beto has kept quiet and toured the country while many local activists in the local state where angered with his silence. Beto and his closest advisor had yet to give off wether Beto would run or not which promoted many local activists to stop waiting and join other campaigns. This is why a slide in the polls for Beto has continued since January where he was polling as high as twenty percent and now is half of that at ten percent to thirteen percent. Even without Beto on the ground in early states, he has had a huge draft effort in New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina that held events even to pressure Beto to run so that local Democrats abandoned his campaign, more then they were already doing.

With information realised by Politico, Beto was planning a launch in early June but was rushed and scrambled to find the perfect location for his launch so he could make the debate and not sit aside like Joe Biden. This could have a similar effect to Gabbard's campaign launch which was not planned. Gabbard found momentum early but then stories that the campaign was not prepared for because it was launched early came out and her momentum all but died. Beto could have a similar effect but he is much more known nationwide than Gabbard was when she launched a bid for the White House.

With Beto in, another potential candidate closed the door to a bid. Eric Holder who had been struggling in the polls and would be locked out of the first debate said he would forgo a run and gave his support to Andrew Gillum who is another 2018 star like Beto O'Rourke. Holder was visiting early states to prep but a long wait hurt his polls and many of his donors left his campaign for either Gillum, Kamala Harris or Cory Booker according to a leaked email from his campaign staff.



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Democratic Debate is Set
May 25th, 2018

MSNBC- Today, MSNBC and the Democratic National Commitee have a agreed on two debates on the same night with random candidates for each candidate. The first debate will be held at six pm. eastern and the second debate will be held on nine pm eastern time. All major candidates will be invited to the debate including the new entries of Beto O'Rourke, Jay Inslee and Terry McAullife and MSNBC invites Joe Biden to attend if he wishes. The Debate candidate set up is shown below:

6 PM Debate: thirteen candidates
Marianna Williamson  Eric Swalwell  Bill De Blasio Richard Ojeda Jeff Merkley  John Hickenlooper  Julian Castro  Pete Buttigieg  Tulsi Gabbard  Sherrod Brown  Cory Booker  Elizabeth Warren  Kamala Harris
 Bernie Sanders

9 PM Debate: Twelve Candidates
Andrew Yang  Terry McAullife  Seth Moulton  Tim Ryan   John Delaney  Michael Bloomberg  Michael Bennet  Andrew Gillum  Kristen Gillibrand  Amy Klobuchar  Beto O'Rourke


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Swalwell Pulling Staff From Iowa and New Hampshire, Reajusting stragey
May 27th, 2019

Huffington Post- With low poll numbers and struggling fundraising, Represenative Eric Swalwell is refocusing his efforts in the 2020 election away from the first to early states. Swalwell has reportdly started to fire or resign staff in both Iowa and New Hampshire in an attempt to not so heavily rely on good showings in those two early states. Swalwell will also close all open offices in those states execpt for one each and will cancel all openings for offices. This could be the begging of the end for his campaign or this could be part of the end for him. Maybe his end started to come after a rough launch and his fellow Califronian endorsing Kamala Harris over him.

Still, Swalwell is confident in his campaign and stated, "Iowa and New Hampshire do not represent America and for too long the American people have to see how they vote. That should end and I believe I will be able to end it with the right stragey." Swalwell is reportly ramping efforts in his homestate and in Nevada which could pay off but you could always ask President Rudy if it worked for him.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: Bennet Bro on February 02, 2019, 10:40:10 pm
Michael Bennet must win.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 03, 2019, 10:59:49 am
Since were on the third party thing, who are the possible Constitution Party candidates :P
Probably Darrell Castle again but I will have a few post about the cp party for you near their convention


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 03, 2019, 04:46:30 pm
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Ann Coulter Gives Trump Second Primary Challenger
June 2nd, 2019

Washington Post-President Trump weakened and open to a primary challenge has earned yet another challenger. After very poor results in the midterm elections and then a prolonged shutdown with no wall funding hurt Trump's chances of making it to the nomination without a primary challenge. First, Former Governor Bill Weld announced his challenge to President Trump in April and has had a slow rise in New Hampshire where he is polling around fifteen to twenty percent. Now, one of Trump's first supporters is launching her own bid for president.

The author of the book "In Trump We Trust" and conservative commentator Ann Coulter is running for president after weeks of attacking Trump for being weak and incompetent. Coulter had a draft effort for her bid since the midterms when Coulter blamed Trump for the large loses. With the entrance of Coulter, that means, Trump will be having challenges from both sides of the political spectrum, Far-Right and Moderate to Libertarian.

Coulter's bid will further hurt Trump's bid for reelection and make Iowa a semi-competitive state. When it was just Weld running, he was just mainly focusing on New Hampshire where he would have a home state advantage. Now, Coulter will be putting efforts in the more conservative state of Iowa which will make Trump have to build up operations in two smaller states instead of focusing on bigger, more competitive general election states like Ohio and Florida.


Gallup Poll of Iowa Republicans
Sample Size: 647
Donald Trump: 58.7%
Ann Coulter: 21.2%
Bill Weld: 6.5%
Undecided: 13.6%


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Human Rights Campaign Endorses Mayor Pete
June 3rd, 2019

Bloomberg- The nations largest pro-LGBT organization is endorsing the first major LGBT candidate for president. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is endorsed by the Human Rights Campaign or the HRC in a letter sent out to all supporters. This is a suprise to the dark horse campaign even if Pete Buttigieg is the only major gay candidate to run. In a message sent out by Facebook earlier today, Buttigieg's campaign stated, "We are overjoyed that HRC endorsed our presidential campaign and we are surprised by the enthusiasm they have given to our campaign."

This could help bring Buttigieg up in the polls with being in the news which he has lacked recently since his campaign launch. The real thing that is helping through the endorsment is, HRC pledging groundtroops and staff to help with Buttigieg's campaign which has yet to take off the ground.



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What to expect?
June 4th, 2019

FiveThirtyEight- The first Democratic debate is being held tomorrow in Virginia with the largest field ever. At this time, we have over twenty-five candidates and still more candidates are considering bids. The biggest of those still considering bids are Joe Biden with a few smaller names like Steve Bullock still looking at a bid even in the later part of the early stages of 2020. Bullock, Biden and the other candidates need to get in fast or their supporters will start to abandon them for others that gain momentum from things like debates.

The candidates that need some good performances are Tulsi Gabbard, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris who are all in a negative momentum at this point. Harris, Warren, and Gabbard are all good speakers which will benefit them but it will be hard to disguntish them with such a large field unless they truly stick out. Those three candidates aren't the only ones needed to help their bids for president. Every candidate needs to stand out in their respective ideology like centrism, populism and socialism which once had one candidate in past election cycles now have around three or four candidates per ideology with a few candidates without a core ideology base which they need to find for the first debate to win support.

Many candidates also need to go into deeper specifics with a policy like Andrew Yang and Marianne Williamson who are both campaigning on very radical policy like a universal basic income and slavery reparations. Both, since they are little known with little polls, are not getting focus on these radical policies and so have yet to describe them in detail.

No matter who wins or if someone wins, the first debate will be one of the most watched events this year for politics.



Princton Poll of South Carolina Democrats
Sample Size: 1,098
Kamala Harris: 20.8%
Andrew Gillum: 15.1%
Joe Biden: 10.5%
Cory Booker: 10.4%
Terry McAullife: 6.7%
Bernie Sanders: 4.6%
Seth Moulton: 4.3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.9%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.8%
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.4%
Richard Ojeda: 1.3%
Sherrod Brown: 0.9%
Amy Klobuchar: 0.7%
Michael Bloomberg: 0.5%
Jay Inslee: 0.5%
John Delaney: 0.4%
Eric Swalwell: 0.3%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.2%
Julian Castro: 0.1%
John Hickenlooper: 0.1%
Tim Ryan: 0.1%
Marianne Williamson: 0.0%
Jeff Merkley: 0.0%
Bill De Blasio: 0.0%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Undecided: 15.9%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: NyIndy on February 03, 2019, 05:12:07 pm
Did Kasich Decline to run?


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 08, 2019, 09:56:10 pm
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Gabbard, Ojeda Come Out of First Debate as Winners
June 5th, 2019

MSNBC- The first debate has just finished in Arlington, Virginia and two clear winners came out of the first debate but there was also one big loser for the first debate. Debates can make or break campaigns and there are only ten debates for Democrats making every single one very important for the presidency. Nothing proves how important debates are then the stand-out debate of Carly Fiorina and the campaign ending debate moment for Rick Perry in 2012. Now, there is another stand-out star from the presidential debate. Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard was clearly the strongest candidate coming strong against Trump while repeating many of the same anti-establishment rhetoric.

Tulsi Gabbard shined when she first went after Senator Kamala Harris. Gabbard went after Harris judicial nominee question and called it religious bigotry something she called out Harris for earlier in the campaign. Gabbard while pointing to Harris stated, "As a Hindu woman, I have continually faced religious bigotry. In America, no one should face bigotry of any kind especially religious bigotry when we were the land of the free and have freedom of religion written in the rules for our government. Sadly, the same bigotry I face as a Hindu, have been spread by Kamala Harris and her questioning on the judiciary committee. I have continually called her out for her religious bigotry and will continue because nobody in this country should ever face that bigotry." Harris tried to respond but Gabbard cut her off by saying, "When I was 21, I was elected as the youngest state legislature in the nation but I sacrificed that position to serve this nation so at least one nation in this world can be true, the home of the free including freedom of religion and free of bigotry like what you, Kamala, have spread on the judiciary committee."

Gabbard was the star of the show and landed punch after punch on the frontrunner of the debate, Kamala Harris, but another winner in the debate. The dark horse of the primary, State Senator Richard Ojeda, also had many shining moments at the debate that has helped his campaign. Ojeda began his opening speech calling out the political class which he did throughout the debate and saying, "Drinking a beer in your kitchen doesn't make you relatable, Getting a Dental check-up doesn't make you relatable. What does relate to the American people? Is being concerned about whether or not you can afford your mortgage or worried that your children will basically have two choices between being a druggie, a coal miner or a solider. That is why I am relatable, I am worried about my mortgage, I am worried where my children will become as my parents did before me." Ojeda also tried to play to progressive and climate change activist, saying, "West Virginia is coal country and I am pro-coal but I will not put short term economic gain for long term worldly suffering. I will fight climate change and I will not sacrifice our coal miners either."

Ojeda and Gabbard came out of the debate as a winner but there was one big loser, Senator Kamala Harris. Harris launched in the polls following her launch but has constantly fallen in the polls ever since and her sub-par organization has not helped her bid. Now, Harris has had another stubble on her bid for the president. Harris started by being attacked by Gabbard for religious bigotry and that only opened her up to more attacks from fellow competitors. Harris did have one high moment at the begging when she called out Williamson's 'ridcoulous' reparations plan but then Williamson came back to attack Harris for her racist criminal justice policies as attorney general, saying, "Kamala, at least I am trying to heal the racial inequality in this country. As attorney general, you made more racial inequality and you locked up more inconnent people than even Jeff Sessions." After that stark rebuke of Harris comments, Harris responded by saying in a fiery rebuttal, "Don't try to lecture me about racial inequality, never in your life have you faced racism. Throughout my life, I faced racism from my time as D.A. to today." If you only watched that part then Harris would be the clear winner but watching the full debate with the Gabbard attacks and then Ojeda andSenator Sherrod Brown attacking her on the Green New Deal caused Harris to fall to be the loser of the debate.


MSNBC Flash Poll of First Debate on June 5th, 2019
Sample Size: 593
Tulsi Gabbard: 43%
Richard Ojeda: 17%
Sherrod Brown: 11%
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Eric Swalwell:4%
Cory Booker: 4%
Bernie Sanders:3%
John Hickenlooper: 2%
Pete Buttigieg: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Bill De Blasio: 1%
Kamala Harris: 1%
Jeff Merkley: 0%
Marianna Williamson: 0%
Undecided: 3%


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After Rough Debate, Williamson Earns Endorsment of Oprah
June 5th, 2019

Fox News- Minutes after a rough debate, the little-known author Marianna Williamson was endorsed by Oprah Winfrey who is good friends with Williamson. In a message on FaceBook, Oprah went into details about why she supports Williamson even with some of the more radical policies including reparations for slavery. In her message, she wrote, "No matter whether you support Marianne or you don't, we can all agree that she has confidence, she is a strong woman and will stand with her positions no matter what any other candidate says which is why I am endorsing Williamson for president. I urge my friends and followers to join this evolution."

The last line of the endorsement saying Williamson will stand with her positions no 'matter what any other candidate says' could be a reference to the debate tonight where Senator Kamala Harris attack Williamson for her reparations plan. Harris went after for the most radical policy for Williamson and called her out when Williamson said this will heal inequality. Both Williamson and Harris have been called the 'losers' of the first debate that finished after two hours of screaming and shouting between the candidates.

Oprah endorsement could help pull away from the negative headlines that could follow the bad debate performance. This could also pull up Williamson's lagging poll numbers that have remained below one percent national and the first two early states. Williamson's highest poll number was in California, her home state but she was still polling only at two percent.



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Gillibrand and Klobuchar Overperform while Tim Ryan suffers
June 5th, 2019

Politico- In the first debate, Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard and State Senator Richard Ojeda had been dubbed the 'winners' of the first debate while Senator Kamala Harris took a big loss with a bad debate performance. Now, the second debate has just finished and two clear candidates did a much better than expected performance. No candidate truly had an awful debate performance like Kamala Harris had but Congressmen Tim Ryan did suffer in the debate.

Senator Amy Klobuchar was able to fill the void left by the absence of Joe Biden in the debate and played herself as the pragmatic candidate in the race. Delaney and Hickenlooper both tried to play the same card with some success and both saying they are the adult in the room. Klobuchar truly chooses the right moments to play the adult especially when Michael Bloomberg and Andrew Gillum started arguing about their records. Klobuchar stated, "Bloomberg and Gillum may need to talk about their record and build their records up but unlike them, my record speaks for herself. I don't need to yell across the room to win a vote, I just need them to read my record." Klobuchar also was in an argument with Representative Tim Ryan who started by attacking Klobuchar by saying, "Amy, I am amazed by your record but I don't think the American people don't just want a record, they want someone who will stand up for them. I am that candidate, I don't just have the record but I have the policy chops and I have the blue-collar background to win back the blue wall that fell in 2016." Klobuchar responded by stating, "Mr. Ryan, I don't just have a record, I grew up in the midwest in the blue-collar neighbors in Minnesota and every single day since I have been a public servant. Truly, Mr. Ryan, I don't think you should be talking about not winning Americans when you are polling less than almost the entire field."

Klobuchar wasn't the only one that was able to impress Americans with her debate performance, Senator Kristen Gillibrand, a colleague of Klobuchar, had a stunning performance. Gillibrand played on the me too movement and the year of the women. Gillibrand in her starting statement, stated, "America, in 2018 we elected more women than ever in history and since 2016 we have exposed powerful men sexually abusing women. I am so proud of my country and my party as we stand proudly stood with the year of the women and the me-too movement. Now, our country is finnally ready for a female president, I can feel it and women across this country feel it and I believe I am that candidate to lead this country."


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 09, 2019, 04:37:32 pm
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Senate Contest Across the Country Heat Up
June 7th, 2018

CNN- The Republican majority in the Senate could very possibly fall in 2020 and both parties are receiving high profile candidates to flip or retain the Senate. Since the blue-wave, Democrats are eyeing higher office and have started to launch bids. Some states that have been strong Republican states in the past have had strong recuirts join the race like South Carolina.

In South Carolina, the strongest candidate that has received national endorsements is former DNC chairmen candidate and former Chair of the South Carolina Democratic party Jamie Harrison. Harrison launched his campaign just a week ago after launching an exploratory committee early in the year and has been endorsed by 2020 presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg. Harrison will be running against Lindsey Graham who has a strong base but many independents have a bad taste in their months from them after the Kavanaugh confirmation.

In Arizona, the Democrats have a competitive primary between two high profile candidates. Senator Chuck Schumer and the Democratic Senatorial Commitee has backed Congressmen Ruben Gallego while Mom's Demand Action and other high profile gun groups have backed Mark Kelly, the husband to former Congresswomen Gabby Giffords who was shot while meeting constituents. Kelly and Gallego are both high profile candidates and both will poise a hard challenge to Senator Martha McSally who lost two years for Senate against current Senator Krysten Sinema and then was appointed to the seat that Jon Kyl was retiring.

In one of the most competitive states this year, Colorado, candidates are lining up to take on sitting Senator Cory Gardner who defeated Mark Udall in 2014. The highest profile candidate in the race is Andrew Romanoff who is the former Speaker of the Colorado house but Romanoff has yet been able to prove that he can win a race statewide or even win in a primary. Mike Johnston is a former State Senator who is also running but many who want a high profile challenge are hoping that Former Governor John Hickenlooper suspends his presidential campaign to run against Gardner. Chuck Schumer has met with Hickenlooper but he has also met with two other possible candidates, Cary Kennedy and Joe Salazer who both have run statewide and Kennedy was a successful candidate.

Not only have Democrats started looking into highly competitive elections but in Tennesee and Alabama, Republicans are eyeing higher office. Most high profile Republicans have yet made the jump though, unlike their Democrat counterparts and Senator Mitch McConnel has started urging some high profile candidates to launch their bids.

The most likely seat to flip to the GOP in Alabama where a scandal-plagued candidate gave Democrats an upset in one of the most conservative states in America. McConnel has met with two of the high profile challengers, Congressmembers Gary Palmer, and Martha Roby. Roby and Palmer have both started to gather together a campaign organization and hire staff but have yet to officially announce their intentions for a run. Both Roby and Palmer aren't the only ones looking to win the Senate seat currently held by Senator Doug Jones who has lost a significant amount of favorability since the Kavanaugh confirmation and made reelection even harder for the first-term senator. Other high profile candidates include Governor Kay Ivey and Congressmen Mo Brooks.

In Tennesee, the moderate senator, Lamar Alexander is retiring and the field for his replacement is wide open. The frontrunners that are still on the sidelines include Former Governor Bill Haslam who is also a moderate Republican and had a troubled past with the current President, Congressmen Mark Green who has already generated consverty in his first few days on the capital hill, Former Congresswomen Diane Black who lost in a four-way primary for governor last year and Beth Harwell who was in fourth place in the four-way contest behind Black in the primary. The Democrats aren't putting nearly as much effort in this state as they did in 2018 but they are still preparing candidates to run including high profile candidates like the former nominee in 2018 Karl Dean and Mayor Andy Berke. The only current candidate in the race is a veteran, James Mackler who made a spirited campaign for Senate in 2018 but lost against Phil Bredesen in the primary by a landslide.



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Homestate Democrats Line Up Behind Home State Candidate
June 12th, 2019

ABC- 2020 candidates have been receiving support from their home-state Democrats. Since the last Debate, multiple high profile politicians in their home states. A few months ago after launching her bid, Senator Amy Klobuchar received the endorsement of the Minnesota DFL which is the state Democratic party organization. After a star debate performance, Klobuchar received the endorsement of Governor Tim Walz and Senator Tina Smith who have both pledged their support to Klobuchar and will help her win over Iowa.

New Jersey home state Senator, Cory Booker, was able to win over support of his states Senior Senator, Bob Menedez, and the first term Governor, Phil Murphy. Murphy and Menedez endorsed Booker soon after he announced his bid. Both of those candidates received support by Booker in their elections especially Menedez who was covered in scandal during 2018 midterms and had a close election race with Bob Huggins.

Senator Elizabeth Warren got the highest profile endorsements so far out of her state. Warren was endorsed by Senator Ed Markley, who could be facing a primary, and she received the endorsement of Congressmen Joe Kennedy III and former Governor Deval Patrick who was thought to be running for president. Kennedy III was holding out his endorsement since he is good friends with other candidates especially Beto O'Rourke. Warren did get some smaller, less high profile endorsements too including Jay Gonzalez who lost in a landslide to Governor Charlie Baker in 2018.

Other, not so high profile candidates, also received endorsements from their home state Democrats. Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard who was thought to be the clear 'winner' of the debate the last week received the endorsement Senator Brian Schatz but has yet been endorsed by the senior senator, Mazie Hirono who Gabbard attacked before announcing her bid for president and has not been endorsed by the Governor who Gabbard didn't endorse in the primary and endorsed his opponent in the primary.

The only candidate to have his home state senator to endorse an opponent. State Senator Richard Ojeda's senator, Joe Manchin, endorsed Congressmen Tim Ryan.




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Weld Launches Attacks On Donald Trump, Calls For Debate
June 13th, 2019

AP- Former Governor Bill Weld has launched his first attacks on President Trump after months of building up his organization in New Hampshire and across the country. In a speech in Manchester, New Hampshire while receiving the endorsement of Massachusetts Lt. Governor Karyn Polito, Weld attacked the President by saying, "President Trump is a nassastit billionaire that believes everything should be given to him. Trump is not fit to lead this nation and the past three years have made that crystal clear. Trump cannot unite this nation, he cannot pass important policy changes."

After launching the attacks on Trump and receiving the endorsement of Polito, Weld called for a debate between the three major candidates. In his statement that he realised to the press after calling for the debate stated, "Governor Weld believes a debate is necessary to give Republicans and Americans and clear view of what the candidates stand for." Ann Coulter has announced she will debate Weld and would debate Trump who she stated, "is incompetent and needs to be put in check."

It is unclear how open President Trump is to debating his primary challengers since that may give them credibility and help spread their message. At this point, Trump has nowhere to go but down and giving extra speaking time to Weld and Coulter.



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Bernie Sanders: 13.2% (+0.1)
Joe Biden: 12.2% (-0.9 )
Beto O'Rourke: 9.2% (-0.3)
Amy Klobuchar: 6.5% (+0.5)
Kamala Harris: 6.3% (-1.3)
Kristen Gillibrand: 5.6% (+0.8 )
Elizabeth Warren: 5.5% (-0.2)
Andrew Gillum: 4.4% (+0.5)
Cory Booker: 4.2% (+0.0)
Sherrod Brown: 3.2% (-0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.1% (+1.0)
Pete Buttigieg: 2.1% (+0.5)
Michael Bennet: 2.0% (+0.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.9% (-0.5)
John Delaney: 1.7% (+0.5)
Julian Castro: 1.6% (+0.2)
Tim Ryan: 1.3% (+0.6)
John Hickenlooper: 1.0%(+0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.9% (-0.6)
Richard Ojeda: 0.6% (+0.2)
Terry McAullife: 0.5 (+0.3)
Bill De Blasio: 0.5% (+0.0)
Seth Moulton: 0.4% (-0.1)
Jeff Merkley: 0.3% (-0.3)
Andrew Yang: 0.3% (+0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (-0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (-0.2)
Undecided: 17.2% (+0.1)

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 16.5%  (-2.4)
Amy Klobuchar: 13.8% (+1.7)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.1% (+0.3 )
Sherrod Brown: 9.0% (+0.1)
Bernie Sanders: 7.5% (-0.7)
Tulsi Gabbard: 4.7% (+1.1)
Elizabeth Warren: 4.6% (-0.6)
John Delaney: 4.3% (+0.5)
Tim Ryan: 2.6% (-0.3)
Kamala Harris: 2.5% (-1.2)
Cory Booker: 2.2% (-0.4)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.8% (+0.3)
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.7 (+0.9)
Michael Bennet: 1.6%  (+0.1 )
Andrew Gillum: 1.5% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 1.5% (+0.4)
John Hickenlooper: 1.3% (+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 1.2% (+0.6)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.7%  (-0.3)
Andrew Yang: 0.6% (+0.0)
Seth Moulton: 0.5% (-0.2)
Jeff Merkely: 0.5% (+0.0)
Bill De Blasio: 0.2% (+0.1)
Terry McAullife: 0.1% (+0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (+0.0)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (-0.1)
Jay Inslee: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 9.0% (+0.1)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Elizabeth Warren: 15.9% (-0.2)
Bernie Sanders: 15.5% (-0.3)
Kristen Gillibrand: 9.6% (+1.1)
John Hickenlooper: 6.8% (+0.6)
Beto O'Rourke: 5.6% (-0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 5.2% (-0.3)
Joe Biden: 5.1% (-0.8 )
Michael Bennet: 5.0% (+0.2)
Seth Moulton: 4.1% (+0.1)
Bill De Blasio: 2.8% (+0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.7% (+0.7)
Kamala Harris: 2.6% (-1.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 1.7% (+0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 1.5% (+0.3)
Cory Booker: 1.4% (-0.5)
Jay Inslee: 1.1% (+0.2)
John Delaney: 1.0% (+0.5)
Tim Ryan: 0.9% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 0.8% (+0.0)
Andrew Gillum: 0.8% (+0.2)
Sherrod Brown: 0.7% (-0.1)
Terry McAuliffe: 0.4% (+0.4)
Pete Buttigieg: 0.1% (+0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (-0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (-0.1)
Richard Ojeda: 0.0% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 12.8% (-1.2)


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 09, 2019, 08:34:53 pm
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Bullock, Sanberg, Biden round out Democratic Field
August 3rd, 2019

MSNBC- With the primary season inching closer, the final Democratic candidates jump in the race while the current candidates all are building orginzations needed to win the primary. Former Vice-President Joe Biden launched his campaign in late July while Former Governor Steve Bullock and Poverty Activist Joe Sanberg both joined the race over the weekend. These three will most likely be the last entries into the largest field of candidates for president ever. Already, there were over twenty-six candidates and with Sanberg, Biden and Bullock in the race, there are twenty-nine candidates which is twelve more candidates than the Republican field in 2016.

Biden was the frontrunner or thought to be the frontrunner slowly has fallen behind other already annouced candidates. Biden did struggle and his polling took a hit after skipping the first debate as he waited to annouce his bid. Biden still is in the frontrunners but has much less strong orginzation than Bernie Sanders and Beto O'Rourke who both annouced months ago and were on the first debate stage.

Bullock is a red-state Democrat and could help win some Republicans and Independents to help put him ahead of his fellow Democrats who almost all are playing for the progressive and Liberal vote. Bullock has opperations in Iowa but has yet expanded and hired anyone in New Hampshire which is a curcial early state. Bullock could be a strong candidate but he will be competing in Iowa against other pragatism candidate like John Delaney and Michael Bennet who already have opperations step up.

Sanberg is the least known of the three new candidates but he does have a large internet following and has a prime message: elimnating poverty. Sanberg has traveled the country on this message and has a similar tone to his campaign as John Edwards in 2008. Sanberg could face low poll numbers as other anti-estblishment, outsiders candidates have this cycle inculding Andrew Yang and Marianne Williamson.


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Sen. Romney Endorses Weld; Former Rep. Chaffetz and Grimm Endorses Coulter
August 7th, 2019

The Union Leader- President Trump's challengers are getting more and more serious and have started to become a thorn on his side and the side of his reelection bid. The Republican National Commitee have been trying to prevent a serious primary challenge but President Trump's reelection bid now has two serious primary challenge and they are gaining mometum and endorsement.

Ann Coulter has been running to the president's right and has continually attacked the president as 'incompetent' and blamed the President for the large losses in the midterms. Coulter has now recieved her first endorsment by two former congressmembers. Former Congressmen and Former Criminal Michael Grimm from New York and Former Congressmen Jason Chafftez from Utah annouced their endorsments for Coulter in a Fundraiser in Washington DC and plan to hold a rally with Coulter in Iowa and New Hampshire later this month. Coulter has been raising his support in Iowa but has had a harsh response from New Hampshire where she is still polling below ten percent.

On the other hand, Former Governor Bill Weld has had a good response in New Hampshire but has not had the response he wished for in Iowa. Weld contitues to grow his orginzation and momutum in New Hampshire. Today in a rally outside one of his New Hampshire field office, Weld was endorsed by Senator Mitt Romney. Romney endorsments follows other endorsers of Weld inculding Justin Amash, Rand Paul and Gary Johnson.

Both Weld and Coulter have created a fierce challenge to President Trump and have pushed to get a debate between the three main contenders before Iowa and New Hampshire.



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Alabama Senate Race Heats Up
August 11th, 2019

National Journal- Since Doug Jones won an upset election against scandal-plagued Roy Moore in deep-red Alabama, high profile Republicans across the state looked to run for president. Three Represenatives have launched bids for senate which will be one of the most watched races come election day. Mo Brooks, Gary Palmer and Martha Roby have all launched campaigns meaning half of all new Congressmen from Alabama will be freshmen.

Palmer and Brooks both are two of the most conservative members of congress and will each be running to the others right. Brooks has gained the endorsment of conservative outsiders inculding presidential hopeful Ann Coulter which could hurt him and he was endorsed by Cory Lewidawski. Palmer on the other hand has gained endorsments from conservative orginzation inculding Students for Trump. Roby does have an advantage of being a women as the party looks to add more femine voices to the party. Roby has earned the endorsment of Senator McConnel who could hurt her but she has also earned the endorsment of Congresswomen Elise Stefinek who is raising funds for Republican women across the country.

The latest poll shows that Roby, Palmer and Brooks are almost tied with Brooks leading the field. This may be because Brooks has already lead a statewide campaign which he lost to Moore in the primary.


National Journal Poll of Alabama Republican Senate Primary
Sample Size: 946
Kay Ivey: 24%
Mo Brooks: 19%
Martha Roby: 17%
Gary Palmer: 13%
Roy Moore: 12%
Bradley Bryne: 7%
Rick Pate: 3%
Will Ainsworth: 2%
Undecided: 3%


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Big Name Candidates Jump in Libertarian Contest
August 27th, 2019

Reason- Two former Congressmen have now joined the Libertarian race for president and mutiple other higher profile Libertarians have annouced their runs. Congressmen Joe Walsh who served two years as a congressmen from Illinios as a Republican and Congressmen Tom Cambell served six years in Califronia as a Republican but endorsed Gary Johnson in 2016. Both Cambell and Walsh have annouced that they would be aiming to win the 2020 Libertarian nomination. Walsh and Cambell are the highest profile candidate in the race since Bill Weld decided to run the Republican nomination instead.

Cambell and Walsh won't be alone in the race with two other candidates joining the race that have large followings within the Libertarian party. Larry Sharpe who ran for Vice-President in 2018 but lost to Weld in the convection has annouced he won't sit on the sideline in the end and will run for the president. Sharpe was joined by Sam Sedar who launched his exploratory commitee months ago and now is officially in the race for president.

The latest polls show the race for the Libertarian nomination is close and could be come much closer if anouther high profile Libertarian joins the race like Justin Amash. Amash has said he will not run for the nomination unless Weld doesn't prove succesful in his primary bid against President Trump.


Libertarian Future National Poll of Libertarians
Sample Size: 413
Larry Sharpe: 23%
Joe Walsh: 17%
John McAfee: 12%
Peter Schiff: 10%
Tom Cambell: 9%
Adam Kokesh: 6%
Patrick Bryne: 5%
Sam Sedar: 5%
Arvin Vohar: 2%
Undecided/Other: 11%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 10, 2019, 02:30:32 pm
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The Year of The Women 2.0?
September 15th, 2019

Business Insider- In 2018, hundreds of women across the country were elected on a blue wave as they took out mostly white, male incumbents. Now, women across on both sides of the aisle are again hoping to have a women wave. Nothing shows this clearer than the presidential race where seven women have their eyes on the white house, six from the Democratic party and one from the Republican party. This is more women running for president than ever before.

The problem with these women running is the split women's vote which used to propel women candidates in the primary like Hillary Clinton in 2008. The women's vote help keep Clinton in the race and helped her flip some close states like New Hampshire to her. Still, the gender of these women are showing as a clear benefit to their campaigns as the Democratic party is looking and wanting more diversity at the top of the ticket. Truly, the message going to come out of these primaries is that the Democrats truly don't want another old white man to compete against another old white man.

Not only is the presidential race getting more women than ever running but congressional, senate and gubertarional elections also have a surge of women candidates. In the Democratic primary, some of the most competitive Senate races have attracted women candidates like Colorado. Two women have already jumped into this race, one is a biomedical scientist and the other is a community organizer. Trish Zornio and Lorena Garcia are both pollings in low single digits but could pull off a successful primary if they keep up the energy within their campaigns. Cary Kennedy is the former Colorado Treasure and former candidate for governor in 2018 who most Democratic insider would like to see as the nominee if it would be a woman but both Zornio and Garcia both hope Kennedy doesn't enter the race so she doesn't slipt the women's vote.

Not only have Democrats started to build up a new women's wave in 2020 but Republicans have also started to help. In 2018, the Republicans were very much lacking in the women's wave and many women that ran lost in the primary like State Representative Christina Hagen in the 16th Ohio District who lost to Anthony Gonzalez who now represents the district. The Republicans were only able to elect one new freshmen women and still, the women in the Republican ranks fell because some women within the party lost like Congresswomen Barbara Comstock who lost to Jennifer Westock. In 2020, Republicans do not want that to happen again. Congresswomen Elise Stefanik has launched an effort to get women elected across the country and Congresswomen Liz Cheney has become an outspoken supporter of getting Republican women elected. Congresswomen Susan Brooks was elected to be recruitment chair to get more women elected or running also.

The effort has proved successful to get women running like in Alabama where Congresswomen Martha Roby is running to defeat Doug Jones for Senate. In Iowa, a Republican woman is looking to flip a lean red seat back. State Representative Ashley Hinson has said she will run and is trying to flip the seat currently held by Abby Finkenauer who is a freshmen Democrat. Hinson and Roby aren't alone but the question now for Republicans isn't whether they can run women, it is if women can survive a primary and win the general election.



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Abuse Stories Come Out About Amy Klobuchar
September 20th, 2019

Sioux City Journal- Senator Amy Klobuchar has built up operations around Iowa and has been surging since June when she 'won' the first presidential debate but that may all start to crumble to the ground has horror stories have started to come out of her presidential campaign. Klobuchar has built up a nice-midwestern personality but some are saying that is far from what they saw in her Washington office.

When she launched her campaign, Klobuchar had a very troubled time hiring someone to run her campaign but now a report from Politico has made very clear why. Klobuchar is far from the nice midwestern senator she has made herself out to be according to multiple staff. A former staffer who wishes to be unknown was left in tears multiple times by her former boss and said she wasn't the only one. She said almost all the staff have faced Klobuchar when she was in one of her rants and has been close to tears or crying by the end of the day. The former staffer said, "I joined politics to make a change, I didn't know I would be left in tears every day." These words are similar to what other staffers have said about working with Klobuchar and pointed to that as one of the reasons so many staff leaves her office.

In her first two Senate bids, multiple big national unions wouldn't endorse her bids which were uncommon for them. One of the big unions even asked local unions either to not endorse Klobuchar or withdraw their endorsement because of her past abuse of her staff. If these unions don't endorse Klobuchar in the general election, she may be very badly hurt since the midwest is a heavy union area especially Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania which are crucial in her bid to defeat Trump.



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Congressmen Tim Ryan Goes After Klobuchar
September 23rd, 2019

CNBC- Senator Amy Klobuchar has had a rough week on the campaign trail. To start she had Politico report about her abuse of her staff and how tough it was to find a campaign manager and yesterday, multiple union members heckled Klobuchar at an event and called for her to drop out of the race because of the abuse of her staff. Now her opponents are smelling blood and going after Klobuchar for the new scandal.

Congressmen Tim Ryan in a rally outside Iowa City said, "I aim for excellence among my staff, I believe every boss should because if you should do work then why don't you make it your best work. What I don't aim to do is yell and abuse my staff. That is innaporate behavior of any boss or individual. A workplace should be a safe place to get your work done. Amy Klobuchar and her abusive attitude have no place in Washington and no place in America." After leaving his rally, Ryan talked with press and boasted about his low staff turnover rate which is the lowest in the state of Ohio.

It is not known what these attacks will do to Klobuchar but it is more negative headlines and more press for her opponents that are close on Klobuchar's tail in Iowa. The only thing we truly know is that Klobuchar's momentum that had helped her surge after the debate has all but disappeared.



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Bernie Sanders: 12.9% (-0.3)
Joe Biden: 12.4% (+0.2 )
Beto O'Rourke: 10.0% (+0.8 )
Kristen Gillibrand: 6.1% (+0.5 )
Kamala Harris: 5.9% (-0.4)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.9% (+0.4)
Amy Klobuchar: 5.4% (-1.1)
Cory Booker: 4.7% (+0.5)
Andrew Gillum: 4.6% (+0.2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.7% (+0.6)
Sherrod Brown: 3.3% (+0.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.9% (+0.0)
Julian Castro: 1.9% (+0.3)
Michael Bennet: 1.8% (-0.2)
Tim Ryan: 1.7% (+0.4)
John Delaney: 1.5% (-0.2)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.4% (-0.7)
John Hickenlooper: 0.8%(-0.2)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.6% (-0.3)
Bill De Blasio: 0.6% (+0.1)
Richard Ojeda: 0.5% (-0.1)
Terry McAullife: 0.5 (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.4% (+0.1)
Steve Bullock: 0.3% (+0.3)
Seth Moulton: 0.2% (-0.2)
Eric Swalwell: 0.2% (+0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 0.1% (-0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (+0.0)
Joe Sanberg: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 16.4% (-0.8 )

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 16.5%  (+0.0)
Amy Klobuchar: 11.2% (-2.6)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.6% (+0.5)
Sherrod Brown: 9.7% (+0.7)
Bernie Sanders: 7.3% (-0.2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.6% (+0.9)
Elizabeth Warren: 4.7% (+0.1)
John Delaney: 4.1% (-0.2)
Tim Ryan: 3.5% (+0.9)
Cory Booker: 2.3% (+0.1)
Kamala Harris: 2.2% (-0.3)
Pete Buttigieg: 2.0% (+0.2)
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.8% (+0.1)
Richard Ojeda: 1.7% (+0.5)
Steve Bullock: 1.6% (+1.6)
Julian Castro: 1.5% (+0.0)
Andrew Gillum: 1.3% (-0.2)
Michael Bennet: 1.2%  (-0.4)
John Hickenlooper: 1.1% (-0.2)
Andrew Yang: 0.7% (+0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.5%  (-0.2)
Joe Sanberg: 0.5% (+0.5)
Bill De Blasio: 0.5% (+0.3)
Jeff Merkely: 0.3% (-0.2)
Seth Moulton: 0.2% (-0.3)
Marianna Williamson: 0.1% (+0.1)
Terry McAullife: 0.0% (-0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (+0.0)
Jay Inslee: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 8.1% (-0.9)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Elizabeth Warren: 15.6% (-0.3)
Bernie Sanders: 15.0% (-0.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 10.4% (+0.8 )
John Hickenlooper: 7.0% (+0.2)
Beto O'Rourke: 5.7% (+0.1)
Michael Bennet: 5.4% (+0.4)
Joe Biden: 5.3% (+0.2)
Michael Bloomberg: 4.7% (-0.5)
Seth Moulton: 4.2% (+0.1)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.1% (+0.4)
Bill De Blasio: 3.0% (+0.2)
Kamala Harris: 1.9% (-0.7)
Cory Booker: 1.6% (+0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 1.3% (-0.2)
Tim Ryan: 1.3% (+0.4)
Steve Bullock: 1.1% (+1.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.0% (-0.1)
Terry McAuliffe: 1.0% (+0.6)
John Delaney: 0.9% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 0.7% (-0.1)
Andrew Gillum: 0.7% (-0.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 0.7% (-1.0)
Sherrod Brown: 0.5% (-0.2)
Pete Buttigieg: 0.3% (+0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.2% (+0.2)
Joe Sanberg: 0.1% (+0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0%  (+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 0.0% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 11.4% (-1.4)


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 10, 2019, 08:16:45 pm
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That Makes Thirty: Abrams Joins Field
October 19th, 2019

CNN- With the final months before the primary season is truly underway, the final candidate joins the already crowded field with a message of progress and equality. Three of the Democratic stars of 2018 are now in the race with the latest entry of former State Representative Stacey Abrams. Abrams launched her bid outside of Charleston, South Carolina where four years earlier a hate-crime happened at a majority African-American church. Abrams pointed to that hate crime as one of the many reasons that African-Americans are still not treated fairly and made sure to point out that Black Lives Matter. This equality and progressive message could help win South Carolina for Stacey Abrams which will be key to Abrams or any African-American candidates victory for the nomination. The south has most primaries with majority African-American voters which is why Barack Obama did so well in 2008 and propelled him to the nomination.

Abrams was the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia in 2018 and lost by less than two percent but wouldn't concede to a week later after it was clear there would be no recall. After the election, Abrams continued to grow her name-recognition and was thinking about running for president or Senate in Georgia/ Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was pushing for Abrams to run for Senate so it would become a competitive seat or even a flip seat in 2020.

Abrams has given the State of the Union Response which had an overall good response except for some jokes about the people looking like they were green screen. This response gave her name recognition for the bid for president which any candidate needs to stand out.



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Buttigieg Attacks Gabbard; Messam Endorses Gillum
October 29th, 2019

Bloomberg News- The first caucus just under two months away candidates are starting to launch attacks on other campaigns. This is the tactic that Mayor Pete Buttigieg is using to take down the rising star of Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard who has risen through the last few months into a decent place going into the last few months of campaigning in Iowa. Buttigieg, the first openly gay presidential candidate, attacked Gabbard for her past anti-LGBT views and is running flyers with the Human Rights Campaign around college communities about Gabbard past views.

College students will be a prime base of voters for both Gabbard and Buttigieg who are both in their late thirties and both would be the youngest president and first millennial president ever. Buttigieg has aggressively targeted these college communities with these fliers since LGBT rights are so important to youth and this will try to crack into Gabbard's momentum that has lifted her through the ranks in the past weeks.

Not only are candidates trying to pull punches on other candidates but they are also in a battle for endorsements in the crowded field. Any endorsement could help a candidate win especially if they have a strong appeal to a voting base like Mayor Wayne Messam who once was considering a bid for president. Now, Messam is endorsing Andrew Gillum for president and is hoping to win over African-American voters to the campaign. The African-American vote is crucial to Gillum's campaign especially in winning over South Carolina which Gillum hopes will be his first win but the vote is split between multiple other candidates including the latest member to the field, Stacey Abrams. Abrams leaves right next door to both Flordia and South Carolina and could hurt Gillum's base of support but all that truly matters to these campaigns is the final days before the primary and organization is everything. Gillum has a large organization compared to Abrams but nothing trumps the huge organization of Kamala Harris.




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Schultz Annouces Presidential Campaign
November 12th, 2019

The Atlantic- The long-awaited Independent bid by former CEO of Starbucks, Howard Schultz, is now official and is off the ground. Schultz was originally thought to be running for the Democratic nomination but seeing no path for a centrist candidate, Schultz abonded a primary bid and started to explore an independent bid back in January and February. His potential bid got negative feedback from many Democratic activists who said Schultz will cost Democrats the White House in 2020 but many centrist liked the idea of a serious independent candidate like another Ross Perot. Some activist has drawn parallels between Schultz and President Trump in a bid to hurt Schultz credibility but polls show that Schultz has been relatively close to ten percent throughout his exploratory phase of the campaign.

Schultz has already gotten big names on his campaign who have managed campaigns in the past which many independent bids lack. These names include Steve Schmidt who was the campaign manager of John McCain in 2008 and has gotten Jeff Weaver who has served in multiple roles throughout Jon Huntsman, John Kasich and John McCain's bids for the presidency. He has also amassed a large PR team including Cheryl Cook which could help with all the attacks aimed at him in the early days of his campaign.


Gallup National Presidential Poll from November 13th to 19th
Sample Size: 1,938
Donald Trump: 41.6%
Generic Democrat: 40.3%
Howard Schultz: 11.5%
Undecided: 6.6%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: KaiserDave on February 11, 2019, 07:16:38 am
I don't think most centrists like Howard Schultz


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 11, 2019, 12:59:10 pm
I don't think most centrists like Howard Schultz
Probably not but they do want an independent candidate


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 11, 2019, 05:50:00 pm
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An All Billionaire Election
December 2nd, 2019

Business Insider- Will 2020 be the Democrats worst nightmare? An all billionaire election. This could very well be possible and already two of the three major candidates most likely will be billionaires. With Howard Schultz launch of his presidential campaign, many Democratic activists in private have started to ask Michael Bloomberg, the former Mayor of New York City, to step aside and accept a cabinet position instead of the president to prevent an all billionaire election. Some in the Democratic party fear that nominating Bloomberg will cause Bernie Sander, Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard supporters to just not show up as they did in 2016. Even worse, those supporters may support the green party which is one of the last things the Democratic party wants to happen in 2020.

Still, if Democrats don't nominate a billionaire then they may be left in the dust in spending with Schultz and President much more willing to open their pockets to win some votes. If Democrats do nominate someone that isn't as rich as the other two major candidates, the nominee will have to put much more effort into fundraising than needed.

So, this may end up being a double-edged sword for Democrats. On one end, the Democrats don't need to worry about fundraising if they nominate a billionaire but risk losing activist support. On the other hand, if Democrats do not nominate a billionaire then candidates may need to spend more time fundraising or sending surrogates to fundraise then spend time reaching out to voters.



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Joe Biden DeservesYour Vote: Union Leader Democratic Endorsment
December 5th, 2019

New Hampshire Union Leader- Vice President Joe Biden is not only the most electable candidate in the race and most qualified candidate but he is the most likable of all thirty candidates. Biden deserves New Hampshire primary votes and has earned the New Hampshire Union Leader Endorsement.

Biden has constantly been called a frontrunner in the race but since the first debate, Biden has slowly fallen nationwide but has had a fast slump in the New Hampshire race where he now is in fifth and sixth place behind much less known candidates like John Hickenlooper and Michael Bloomberg who have started to master the retail politics. Biden has also mastered retail politics but with the large press following him, he has been unable to show off his skill. That truly is a tragedy to the New Hampshire voter but the Union Leader endorsement board was clearly able to see Biden's ability to retail campaign.

Not only is Biden one of the masters at retail politics but when you sit down and know about him, we found that Biden is the most likable candidate in the race which will help him defeat President Trump in the general election. Electability and Likability go together, hand and hand and both are needed to take down the sitting president.

Biden is by far the best candidate in the race and deserves the support of New Hampshire as he eyes the nomination.



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Moulton Earns Endorsment From Veteran
December 9th, 2019

Boston Globe- Congressmen Seth Moulton has made a goal since he has gotten in Congress to elect more veterans like him. Moulton has even created an organization to benefit veteran candidates and pushed many candidates to run in 2018. Moulton's support for veterans across the country in 2018 has started to pay off as he earned the endorsements of veterans.

A group of five veterans has issued a letter endorsing Moulton for president. Two of the five are freshmen Democratic congresswomen who were urged to join the race by Moulton, two others were candidates in 2018 that didn't prevail but also benefitted from backing from Moulton. The last endorser is General William H. McRaven who was one of the leaders of the mission to kill Bin Laden and gained fame when he issued an opinion piece to the Washington Post calling out President Trump's transgender ban.

The endorsers other than McRaven were Congresswoman Mikkie Sherrel (D-NJ), Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D-VA), Ken Harbaugh (D-OH) and Amy McGrath (D-KY). McGrath is one of the most important endorsements on the list since, in 2018, McGrath received the backing of Joe Biden and multiple other candidates but she, in the end, choose Moulton. All these are important endorsements for Moulton who have been lagging behind other more high profile candidates such as Kamala Harris, Biden, and Elizabeth Warren.



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Senator Warren Attacks De Blasio
December 12th, 2019

The New Yorker- In one of the latest attacks in the heated Democratic primary, Senator Elizabeth Warren went after Mayor Bill De Blasio in a town hall in New Hampshire over the Amazon deal in New York City. Warren has stuck very much to her policy until yesterday when she went after De Blasio which is very unusual since Warren is the frontrunner and no polls show De Blasio causing her any risk of winning New Hampshire.

Still, Warren in her townhall was asked about the Amazon deal where the billion dollars got tax-payer subsidies to move to the city. In her response, Warren stated, "It is great that Amazon wants to create jobs in a great city but they shouldn't have needed funding to bring jobs to the city. For crying out loud, they are probably worth more than half the cities population combined. It is just sicking to know that a company that frowns upon unions, gives their employees little benefits will be getting billions in subsidies just to create some jobs. Truly, shame on Bill De Blasio or whoever for giving these subsidies to them. Truly, if De Blasio gave away one penny of subsidies to Amazon so they would move to New York City then he should drop out of this race because I don't see the room in the Democratic party for a corporation loving Democrat."

This is the first hostel attacks against another candidate for Warren and may be signaling a more aggressive Warren in the future. This could benefit the campaign with an energized candidate but it could also hurt as the campaigns turn more negative.



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Joe Biden: 12.8% (+0.4 )
Bernie Sanders: 12.7% (-0.2)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.2% (+0.2 )
Kamala Harris: 6.2% (+0.3)
Kristen Gillibrand: 6.1% (+0.0)
Elizabeth Warren: 6.0% (+0.1)
Cory Booker: 5.3% (+0.6)
Amy Klobuchar: 5.1% (-0.3)
Andrew Gillum: 3.7% (-0.9)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.6% (-0.1)
Sherrod Brown: 3.5% (+0.2)
Stacey Abrams: 2.4% (+2.4)
Julian Castro: 2.0% (+0.1)
John Delaney: 1.8% (+0.3)
Tim Ryan: 1.7% (+0.0)
Michael Bennet: 1.5% (-0.3)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.5% (+0.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.4% (-0.5)
John Hickenlooper: 0.8%(+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 0.7% (+0.2)
Seth Moulton: 0.5% (+0.3)
Terry McAullife: 0.4 (-0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.3% (-0.3)
Eric Swalwell: 0.3% (+0.1)
Andrew Yang: 0.2% (-0.2)
Bill De Blasio: 0.2% (-0.4)
Steve Bullock: 0.1% (-0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 0.1% (+0.0)
Joe Sanberg: 0.1% (+0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 12.7% (-3.7)

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 16.0%  (-0.5)
Amy Klobuchar: 11.3% (+0.1)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.4% (-0.2)
Sherrod Brown: 10.2% (+0.5)
Bernie Sanders: 6.7% (-0.6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.0% (+0.4)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.2% (+0.5)
John Delaney: 4.6% (+0.5)
Tim Ryan: 3.8% (+0.3)
Pete Buttigieg: 2.9% (+0.9)
Kamala Harris: 2.6% (+0.4)
Richard Ojeda: 2.1% (+0.4)
Cory Booker: 1.9% (-0.4)
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.8% (-0.2)
Stacey Abrams: 1.5% (+1.5)
Julian Castro: 1.4% (-0.1)
Steve Bullock: 1.4% (-0.2)
Michael Bennet: 1.1%  (-0.1)
Andrew Gillum: 1.0% (-0.3)
John Hickenlooper: 0.8% (-0.3)
Andrew Yang: 0.5% (-0.2)
Joe Sanberg: 0.5% (+0.0)
Marianna Williamson: 0.4% (+0.3)
Bill De Blasio: 0.3% (-0.2)
Jeff Merkely: 0.3% (+0.0)
Seth Moulton: 0.3% (+0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.2%  (-0.3)
Terry McAullife: 0.1% (+0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (+0.0)
Jay Inslee: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 5.7% (-2.4)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Elizabeth Warren: 16.1% (+0.5)
Bernie Sanders: 14.1% (-0.9)
Kristen Gillibrand: 11.3% (+0.9)
Joe Biden: 6.6% (+1.3)
John Hickenlooper: 6.4% (-0.6)
Beto O'Rourke: 5.5% (-0.2)
Michael Bennet: 5.4% (+0.0)
Seth Moulton: 5.1% (+0.9)
Michael Bloomberg: 4.4% (-0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.9% (-0.2)
Bill De Blasio: 2.3% (-0.7)
Kamala Harris: 2.1% (+0.2)
Cory Booker: 1.5% (-0.1)
Terry McAuliffe: 1.4% (+0.4)
Tim Ryan: 1.3% (+0.0)
Steve Bullock: 1.2% (+0.1)
Stacey Abrams: 1.1% (+1.1)
Jeff Merkley: 1.0% (-0.3)
Jay Inslee: 1.0% (+0.0)
Sherrod Brown: 1.0% (+0.5)
John Delaney: 0.9% (+0.0)
Amy Klobuchar: 0.9% (+0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.8% (+0.6)
Andrew Gillum: 0.6% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 0.5% (-0.2)
Pete Buttigieg: 0.3% (+0.0)
Joe Sanberg: 0.0% (-0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0%  (+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 0.0% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 8.4% (-3.0)


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 12, 2019, 06:31:16 pm
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The Slow Rise of John Delaney and John Hickenlooper
December 15th, 2019

FiveThirtyEight- Congressmen John Delaney and Governor John Hickenlooper have followed the path of John Kasich in 2016 and Rick Santorum in 2012 of retail politics. Hickenlooper and Delaney have both slowly rose in New Hampshire and/or Iowa from the one percent area to midtier. Their rise in those states has not faced many bumps like Tulsi Gabbard's rise has in Iowa. Both candidates have perched unity in this time of division which has resented with voters across the political spectrum and their low profile has helped from being thrown into attacks that could harm their unity message.

Like Kasich in 2016 and Santorum in 2012, Hickenlooper and Delaney have started to master the craft of retail politics which win over voters in the early primary and caucus states. Hickenlooper has held over fifty townhalls in New Hampshire and ten in Iowa while Delaney has held over one hundred events across Iowa and has visited all ninety-nine counties twice. By the end of the campaign, Delaney might have met every single person in Iowa which was his goal when he launched this bid over two years ago.

Both Delaney and Hickenlooper are patiently waiting to see if their hard work has pulled off with a last piece of momentum as Kasich got before his strong second place finish in New Hampshire in 2016. Still, both Delaney and Hickenlooper could also be compared to Jeb Bush who compared his campaign to a slow turtle and the turtle always wins the race, right? Not for Bush and the slow rise of Hickenlooper and Delaney might not be going fast enough for the turtle to win in 2020.



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Joementum; Joe Biden Surges and Earns New Endorsments
December 21st, 2019

CNN- The former Vice-President has started to turn around his campaign that had a rough start early in the year. Joe Biden's 2020 campaign was starting to be compared to Jeb Bush's lackluster bid in 2016 that got him a total of three delegates. Now, Biden has the momentum in his corner after an enthusiastic endorsement by the New Hampshire Union Leader and it shows on the campaign trail. The candidate now is more excited and the crowds are getting bigger as the final month before the first caucus comes.

Biden has now surged back into the lead nationally and has stood his ground in Iowa while having a quick comeback from the mid-tier in New Hampshire. The fundraising is also looking good for the campaign according to a top campaign staffer who said the campaign raised over two million dollars since the endorsement.

The good news didn't end there for the former Vice-President, he has also gotten endorsements from across the nation including Representative Dave Loebsack of Iowa which could help him win over support in the crucial state. Biden's list of endorsements also includes Mayor of Chicago Rahm Emanuel, Former Governor of Ohio Ted Strickland, Representative Conor Lamb, Senator from Deleware Chris Coons and Representative Stephanie Murphy.

These endorsements just continue to prove how much momentum has started to come for Biden who has lacked endorsements, strong fundraising and other needed things for a campaign including air time.



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Michael Bloomberg Needs 10% to Survive Past New Hampshire
December 26th, 2019

CNBC- Former Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg has had a faulty bid for president and his bids have fallen from the headlines. When Howard Schultz joined the race, Bloomberg lost much of his support nationwide as Democratic activist fear an all billairino election. Now, Bloomberg has started pouring more money into his bid as he is trying to turn around his low polling.

Not only has Bloomberg started pouring in more money into his lackluster bid but he is also putting his standards for staying in the race. Bloomberg has set his standard at ten percent in New Hampshire which would put him in the top three if everyone else stays at their polling numbers currently. Ten percent would help him get delegates in New Hampshire.

This could be a high standard for Bloomberg who has stayed in the high three percent which is seven percent off from his goal to stay in the race and even if he makes ten percent and grabs a few delegates then he could face trouble going forward. Bloomberg has the money to go forward but the map of primaries doesn't help a Bloomberg bid like it helps Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren.



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Has Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar Weathered the Storm?
January 2nd, 2020

Politico- Senators Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar have had a rough couple of months on the campaign trail but latest polls have shown their bad luck has started to turn around. Harris luck turned after the first debate. Harris was rising quickly after a very successful launch but has lost almost half of her support since that debate. At her worst, Harris had someone with a similar base jump in the race. On the other hand, Klobuchar has been smeared with bad headlines especially about her past mistreatment of staff. It also came out about how Klobuchar struggled to find a campaign manager to start her campaign. Many Klobuchar supporters have jumped ship and started to fuel the Biden rise.

While they were struggling and going down, both Harris and Klobuchar have been building their base and organization. That may have saved both their campaigns going into the final month. Still, we do not know if Klobuchar and Harris were able to keep their strong fundraiser which could limit how long their campaigns can last if they don't perform in the polls.



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Klobuchar, Delaney are Impressive Candidates: Our Endorsment For 2020
January 5th, 2020

The Des Moines Register- In 2020, we have over thirty candidates running for the Democratic nomination and two challengers in the president's party. In the Republican party, the Des Moines Register views Bill Weld as the best candidate in the Republican primary but we will not endorse in that field. We fell Coulter is as extreme as President Trump but has hugged the racism that President Trump has tried to push away, close to her. Weld, on the other hand, has the experience and is a moderate to Libertarian but our endorsement cannot determine whether Weld runs on convection or running for political gain. That is the main reason why the Des Moines Register will not endorse in the 2020 contest but we do believe Weld is the best of the gang of three.

In the other party, there are multiple good candidates out the thirty which makes the job of the endorsement board even harder. In the end, we decided to endorse two qualified and impressive candidates that have clearly put a lot of effort into Iowa which is why the Des Moines Register are endorsing Amy Klobuchar and John Delaney.

Delaney and Klobuchar are both pagramtic politicians who have worked with both sides. Delaney and Klobuchar have accepted some progressive policies that also make a clear difference between them and President which will be the needed in the 2020 general election, especially for Democratic activist.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 13, 2019, 07:29:40 pm
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Is Joememtum Gone?
January 12th, 2020

Washington Post- Joe Biden has taken back the frontrunner spot and has strengthened his lead in Iowa after an endorsement by the largest newspaper in New Hampshire, Union Leader. Following the endorsement, Biden has started to earn endorsements from around the country including some powerful Iowa endorsements like one of the three representatives. Now, that 'Joememtum' may be coming to an end.

Biden has fallen from the headlines after being on top for a whole week and he is being replaced with some of his closest challengers in Iowa, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, Sherrod Brown and John Delaney. Both Klobuchar and Delaney received the endorsement from the Des Moines Register which is the largest newspaper in Iowa. Klobuchar also seems to be bouncing back after a big drop in support in September after the staff abuse scandal came out. Delaney also got attention for his large ground organization and his strong rural vote which could help save him in some rural counties from the viability threshold.

Biden endorsements are also drying up, Biden pushed to get endorsed by the other two Representatives in the state but both have yet to endorse. Biden also wasn't able to get endorsements of some powerful unions that have split their endorsements among Brown, O'Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard and Tim Ryan.

With the drying up of endorsements and press coverage, this could mean the end to 'Joememtum' that gave Biden a needed push into the last month before caucusing.



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Klobuchar Earns Endorsments From Axne, Finkenaur; O'Rourke Endorsed by Sand
January 15th, 2019

CNN- In fourteen days, the first virtual caucus will be held for the Iowa Caucus which is their version of early voting and the first time they will be implementing the system then on February 4th, 2020 the Iowa Caucus will be held. The Iowa Caucus is crucial for dark horse candidates to prove their candidacy as the first voting that will be held in the whole nation. All the Democrats have been laying their groundwork for months or even years like one dark horse candidate, John Delaney, who is now seeing the hard work pay off as their poll numbers rise. Candidates have also been working on endorsements for their campaigns and with so few potential high-profile endorsers in Iowa, they have been consistently contacted.

All that hard work is starting to pay off for two candidates, Senator Amy Klobuchar and Former Representative Beto O'Rourke, who just received the three remaining high-profile endorsers in the state that hold elected office currently. O'Rourke announced on January 13th that he had received the endorsement of Rob Sand who is the newly elected Treasure in Iowa and who was the only Democrat to hold statewide elected office after 2018. Sand, in his endorsement, stated: "Beto O'Rourke is not only one of the most qualified voices in the race but he will also bring a fresh face to Washington." Sand could potential be a big boost for the campaign as Sand is only elected official in the state. Klobuchar was endorsed by two out of three Democratic Representatives in Iowa. The Representative who didn't endorse Klobuchar, Dave Loebsack, endorsed Joe Biden in late December. The two Representatives who did endorse Klobuchar, Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenaur, are both freshmen Democrats who rode both the women wave and the blue wave in 2018.

Sand's endorsement for O'Rourke and Axne and Finkenaur endorsement of Klobuchar are a big deal for those two candidates who are in a battle for first place against Joe Biden. These endorsements could sway the last few voters to either of those campaigns and may even make the difference in Iowa.


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As Eyes are on Iowa, Senate Races Around the Nation Start to Heat Up
January 16th, 2019

The Gazette- Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa has earned her most serious challenge yet last week. Former Governor Tom Vilsack entered the race that was lacking a big name in the field to challenge the first-term Senator. Vilsack won his second term in 2002 when he won a landslide election against his competitor but that was the last time he had run for office and he could be facing a similar problem that former Governor Tim Pawlenty faced in 2018 when he lost in the primary to a much less known challenger. Vilsack will have to learn about new fundraising, he must get used to the leftward swing of the party and he will have to recruit staff which may be difficult as many candidates especially president have stolen the highest profile activist.

As Iowa's senate race heats up, Senate races across the country are also heating up before the crucial November election. In the Colorado senate race against Senator Cory Gardner who is also a first-term senator also got a few more competitors before the Democratic primary. The most prominent of those entries was Cary Kennedy who is the former Treasurer of Colorado and who ran for Governor in 2018 and came in second to current Governor Jared Polis in the Democratic primary. Gardner may be hard to beat with his fundraising edge and his popularity in the state but Kennedy is the strongest candidate in the race so far to challenge Gardner.

In Kentucky, the majority leader Mitch McConnel will be facing a challenge from former navy fighter pilot and failed 2018 congressional candidate Amy McGrath. McGrath got pushed into the race by minorty leader, Chuck Shumer, who met with her in December 2018. McGrath launched her campaign a few months back and is facing little competion to challenge McConnell. McGrath does face the problem of being a very conservative state with former popular Democrats like Alsion Grimes having little success in the state.

In Arizona, Martha McSally, the Former Represenative who replaced Jon Kyl, is facing competion from two Democrats who are in a harsh primary fight that could benfit McSally like her primary helped Krysten Sinema did two years ago.




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Gabbard, Harris Take Shots At Biden
Janaury 19th, 2019

The Hill- Former Vice-President Joe Biden surged with, what activist called, 'Joememtum' but his momentum has stalled in recent days with his lack of media coverage and lack of endorsements. Now, his opponents have also seen him as an easy target going into the final days before the Iowa Caucus especially over his past gaffes. Senator Kamala Harris who is now running a reenergized campaign and Representative Tulsi Gabbard who has won support from across the aisle have both turned their aim to Joe Biden in the final days.

Harris called out Biden for his statement in the 2008 race when he called then-Senator Obama 'Clean' and 'articulate'. Harris stated, "It is amazing that we would let that comment by then-Senator Biden slide. The worst part is that Biden will never admit that his racist because he doesn't even know it is racist. That is why it is so important our party doesn't elect another white, male candidate again." Harris was speaking to a mainly African-American church and he went further into race relations in the country but that comment stroke and note for the audience who all cheered loudly.

Gabbard while barnstorming college towns on the east part of Iowa talked about how insensitive Biden's comment about Indians was. Gabbard told a crowd of young Democrats that "Biden has constantly said inappropriate things and blatantly racist things too. We cannot let that just slide because he is a Democrat, we cannot just let that slide as a gaffe anymore. We need to call it what it is, a racist comment that is not appoarte especially in America where everybody is born equal and free."

Both Gabbard and Harris have started to just attack the top of Biden's long list of gaffes that hurt the Obama white house and his campaign. If for the next few weeks, Iowans only hear about Biden's gaffes then the momentum he once saw could be completely gone by caucus day.



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Ojeda Ask Supporters To Have Brown As Second Choice
January 23rd, 2019

ABC News- State Senator Richard Ojeda has realsed a vigrous two week scheadule of Iowa for the final days before the caucus in a hope of an underdog vicotry or at least an overperformance in the state that his final hope in his dark horse campaign. Ojeda has recieved little media coverage or big donors but has kept his campaign alive for over a year and is marching to the Iowa with a majority union base. Ojeda hopes he can contitue to play off the union message to win but he doesn't even need a win to claim victory. To claim victory for him is anything above five percent which is over double what he has right now in the state and he hopes to do it with his pro-union message. The same message that helped boost his failed congressional campaign in 2018.

Still, Ojeda fears that in some parts of the state espically in the more urban areas he won't perform well with his union message and he needs fiveteen percent to be viable. Knowing this, Ojeda has asked his supporters to have Senator Sherrod Brown as their second choice. Brown also has a very pro-union message but his bid has stalled with the unpopularty of the tariffs that Brown backs.

Some activist and Democratic leadership are begging that Ojeda instead of wasting money in the presidential contest leave the race and join a West Virginia race. Many activist have had a target on Jim Justice, the Governor of West Virginia, back since Justice switched to the Republican and many hope that Ojeda will join the race or join the senate race against Shelly Capato-Moore who had a landslide victory in 2014.



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Reynolds, Ernst and Grassley Endorse Trump
January 25th, 2019

USA Today- The three most powerful officials in Iowa have all gotten back on the Trump train in the final days before the caucus. Governor Kim Reynolds, Senator Joni Ernst and Senator Chuck Grassley have all backed the President in the upcoming Iowa caucus and realsed a joint statement urging Iowans to back the President in the caucus. They also attacked the primary challengers of President Trump and stated, "It is truly saddening to know how much ego both Ms. Coulter and Mr. Weld must have to primary the President instead of actualy try to help the discussion." and they even went on to say, "It is ridcoulous we must formally say this but both Ms. Coulter and Mr. Weld have forced us to endorse the President in a public statement even though it is very much public knowledge that we agree the President is the best candidate in the race."

This endorsment could be a boost to the president in the final days before the caucus and some allies in a competive state. This could also hurt the reelection bid of Senator Ernst who may of just allienate many of her base voters that she will need back by November. Either way, this endorsment will play out well for President Trump and could add needed surrogates to the campaign trail in the final days before the first caucus.



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Bernie Sanders: 12.1% (-0.6)
Joe Biden: 11.9% (-0.9)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.4% (+0.2 )
Kamala Harris: 6.7% (+0.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 6.2% (+0.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 6.0% (+0.9)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.7% (-0.3)
Cory Booker: 4.9% (-0.4)
Tulsi Gabbard: 4.1% (+0.5)
Sherrod Brown: 3.5% (+0.0)
Andrew Gillum: 3.4% (-0.3)
John Delaney: 2.5% (+0.7)
Stacey Abrams: 2.1% (-0.3)
Julian Castro: 2.0% (+0.0)
Michael Bennet: 1.6% (+0.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.5% (+0.1)
John Hickenlooper: 1.3%(+0.5)
Tim Ryan: 1.3% (-0.4)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.2% (-0.3)
Seth Moulton: 1.1% (+0.6)
Richard Ojeda: 0.6% (-0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.5% (+0.2)
Steve Bullock: 0.4% (+0.3)
Bill De Blasio: 0.3% (+0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.2% (-0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.2% (+0.2)
Terry McAullife: 0.1% (-0.3)
Jeff Merkley: 0.1% (+0.0)
Joe Sanberg: 0.1% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (-0.2)
Undecided: 13.7% (+1.0)

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 14.3%  (-1.7)
Amy Klobuchar: 12.8% (+1.5)
Beto O'Rourke: 11.0% (+0.6)
Sherrod Brown: 10.4% (+0.2)
Bernie Sanders: 6.4% (-0.3)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.2% (+0.9)
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.1% (+0.0)
John Delaney: 5.9% (+1.3)
Tim Ryan: 4.2% (+0.3)
Kamala Harris: 2.7% (+0.1)
Richard Ojeda: 2.5% (+0.4)
Pete Buttigieg: 2.5% (-0.4)
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.7% (-0.1)
Cory Booker: 1.6% (-0.3)
Steve Bullock: 1.5% (+0.1)
Julian Castro: 1.2% (-0.2)
Michael Bennet: 1.1%  (+0.0)
Stacey Abrams: 0.9% (-0.6)
Andrew Gillum: 0.8% (-0.2)
John Hickenlooper: 0.8% (+0.0)
Joe Sanberg: 0.6% (+0.1)
Andrew Yang: 0.4% (-0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.4% (+0.3)
Jeff Merkely: 0.4% (+0.1)
Seth Moulton: 0.2% (-0.1)
Terry McAullife: 0.1% (+0.0)
Bill De Blasio: 0.1% (-0.2)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.0%  (-0.2)
Eric Swalwell: 0.0% (+0.0)
Jay Inslee: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 4.5% (-1.2)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Elizabeth Warren: 16.2% (+0.1)
Bernie Sanders: 13.5% (-0.6)
Kristen Gillibrand: 11.5% (+0.2)
John Hickenlooper: 6.7% (+0.3)
Joe Biden: 5.7% (-0.9)
Seth Moulton: 5.5% (+0.4)
Michael Bennet: 5.3% (-0.1)
Beto O'Rourke: 5.2% (-0.3)
Michael Bloomberg: 4.4% (+0.0)
Bill De Blasio: 3.1% (+0.8 )
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.0% (+0.1)
Kamala Harris: 2.5% (+0.4)
Terry McAuliffe: 1.9% (+0.5)
Cory Booker: 1.7% (+0.2)
Amy Klobuchar: 1.5% (+0.6)
Tim Ryan: 1.3% (-0.1)
Steve Bullock: 1.2% (+0.0)
Jay Inslee: 1.2% (+0.2)
Stacey Abrams: 1.0% (-0.1)
Jeff Merkley: 1.0% (+0.0)
Sherrod Brown: 0.9% (-0.1)
Marianna Williamson: 0.9% (+0.1)
John Delaney: 0.8% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 0.5% (+0.0)
Pete Buttigieg: 0.4% (+0.1)
Andrew Gillum: 0.2% (-0.4)
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%  (+0.1)
Joe Sanberg: 0.0% (+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 0.0% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 7.2% (-1.2)


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 14, 2019, 09:48:27 pm
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Iowa is Klobuchar Country? Biden Country? Trump Country? Beto Country?
Febuary 3rd, 2020

FiveThirtyEight- The Iowa Caucus will be held tomorrow, early voting and virtual caucus are already over. Now, this will be the last time that FiveThirtyEight will be forecasting the results of tomorrows election and what candidates truly need to call a victory.

At this moment, the Iowa caucus is in a three-way tie and two others have a path to victory. Senator Amy Klobuchar, Former Vice-President Joe Biden, and Former Representative Beto O'Rourke all can see victory but all one of the three can claim victory in Iowa. Klobuchar has the organization and the momentum in the neighboring state to her home state of Minnesota. Biden has the support of establishment Democrats and has high likability even if it has dropped since the begging of the campaign. O'Rourke has the charisma and has built a strong amount of support among activist.

All three, O'Rourke, Klobuchar and Biden all are the most likely to taste the sweet victory in Iowa but two more may come from behind in a surprise win. Senator Sherrod Brown and Senator Bernie Sanders both have similar traits to the three frontrunners. Brown has the organization, has gained support from unions which are crucial in a win and has gained a bump from Ojeda who has asked his supporters to have Brown as their second choice. Sanders has had enuthisc supporters who have been routing for his bid since he ended his 2016 bid. Still, Sanders is the most unlikely of the five to win the caucus which he lost four years earlier. Sanders supporters have been splitting from and supporting Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard who both have been gaining steam for the final month.

Most candidates don't need to win Iowa to be able to claim victory for the night like Brown. Brown doesn't need a first place to claim victory even if he is hoping for the win in tomorrow's caucus. All Brown needs to claim a victory in tomorrow's caucus and hold off the end of the campaign may be just getting a strong third place or even a second place would be all he needs to claim victory without a first place. Some other candidates that can claim victory without a win but just a very good showing are Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Tim Ryan, Richard Ojeda, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Gillum, and Stacey Abrams. All those are candidates who put subsitianlly effort into the state and all are dark horse candidates. Just a good showing especially for Gabbard and Delaney who will try to win some delegates and push their campaigns forward.

Some candidates are just skipping Iowa all together as so many candidates are competing in the caucus and going to the New Hampshire. That includes some powerful candidates like Kristen Gillibrand, Bill De Blasio, John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet, and Michael Bloomberg. Some others are aiming to go to South Carolina like Kamala Harris and Cory Booker and some are pushing all away to Super Tuesday where they have some states favoring them like Eric Swalwell. What is yet to be known is if a candidate can skip the first state or even the first four states and survive especially with fundraising as donors look for a winner.

Democrats aren't the only candidates that are competing in the Iowa Caucus. President Trump is defending against two primary challengers but has received support from establishment Republicans in Iowa with one last boost before the caucus. Trump doesn't even need to lose to hurt his campaign to a primary challenger especially if he gets under sixty percent against Coulter or Weld which will give them delegates to the national convention.



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Trump Trounces Competors; Coulter Leaves Field
Febuary 4th, 2020

Fox News- Just minutes after results started to come in from Iowa, it was clear the President didn't just win Iowa but also crushed his two competitors. Former Governor Bill Weld pledged to continue his campaign unto New Hampshire, the First in the Nation Primary. Weld didn't put much effort into Iowa, only hiring two field staffers with one office but he was able to win one delegate and he has put almost all his efforts in the early state of New Hampshire. President Trump's other competitor who was running to President Trump's right, Ann Coulter, put almost all her effort into this highly conservative state.

Coulter was able to win around thirty percent and five delegates out of the thirty. Still, that was not enough to keep her in the race. Tonight in a rally outside Ames, Iowa Coulter announced her departure of the race but didn't endorse either of the two candidates left in the race. Coulter stated, "We need to keep waiting for a conservative candidate to run or we are left with Liberal Trump and Hillary-Republican Weld."

President Trump could easily claim victory with winning over sixty percent and forcing out one of his competitors. Still, this could cause some tension at the convection with Coulter loyalist being in the crowd during the convection and their support of a challenger could bring in the potential of fights on floors. Trump also will have to reach out and urge Coulter to endorse which could be humiliating for the President.


Official Iowa Republican Caucus on Febuary 4th, 2020
30 Delegates in Iowa
Donald Trump: 63.7% (24)
Ann Coutler: 26.8% (5)
Bill Weld: 9.5% (1)


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Iowa is Amy Country: Klobuchar Wins Iowa
Febuary 4th, 2020

CNN- In one of the closet caucus in Iowa, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota was able to pull off the upset win in the state that borders her home. Klobuchar ran on a pragmatic agenda but also won over voters with her strong questioning of Trump's judicial choices including Judge Brett Kavanaugh. Klobuchar came back after a scandal about staff abuse that came out in September but with a strong organization and momentum from last-minute endorsement, she was able to bounce back and pushed the former Vice-President, Joe Biden to second place.

This could be very damaging to Biden's campaign but a war chest he had built up throughout his period of 'Joememtum' which lasted from December to early January. His war chest could even get him to Super Tuesday where he already has an unmatched organization and candidates like Klobuchar have yet looked at.

Closely behind Biden was Senator Sherrod Brown and then Former Representative Beto O'Rourke. O'Rourke pledged to continue till at least Nevada where he is aiming for a place in the top two. Brown, on the other hand, is claiming victory and has already started to fundraise off his good performance in the first caucus of the primary season. Brown has little hope left in early states, like Kasich did after his strong second place in New Hampshire in 2016, so he, like Biden, might be turning to Super Tuesday where he could pick up his first win.

Rounding out the top five is a surprise performance by Representative Tulsi Gabbard who had built energy around her campaign and had won the first debate and has been cruising with momentum in Iowa ever since. Gabbard is also claiming victory with the surprisingly good performance and vowed to continue to at least Super Tuesday where she hopes she can win some states. Gabbard bypassed the person she endorsed in 2016, Senator Bernie Sanders, who had neither an underwhelmed or overwhelmed performance in the caucus. Still, his performance in the caucus tonight truly shows how much of his supporters have left him since 2016 but Sanders continues his campaign to at least New Hampshire wherein 2016, he had a landslide victory against Hillary Clinton.

Other good performances of the night went to Tim Ryan and John Delaney who both have built their campaigns in the state and had some of the strongest organizations. Delaney has said this has given him a ticket to move onto New Hampshire but Ryan's fate is still uncertain. His campaign has yet to respond from messages asking if Ryan will be conceding the race tonight.

We do have one suspension as of right now but the list will probably grow by tomorrow morning when all the dust settles from the caucus. Joe Sanberg who ran on an eliminating poverty platform suspended his campaign after a disappointing result and stated, "I cannot continue knowing there is no path to victory. I will not endorse at this time but will choose a candidate that can continue my message."


Official Iowa Democratic Caucus on Febuary 4th, 2020
56 Delegates in Iowa
Amy Klobuchar: 14.5% (16)
Joe Biden: 13.9% (10)
Sherrod Brown: 11.2% (7)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.7% (6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 9.1% (5)
Bernie Sanders: 6.4% (3)
John Delaney: 6.2% (3)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.1% (2)
Tim Ryan: 4.4% (2)
Kamala Harris: 3.1% (1)
Pete Buttigieg: 2.7% (1)
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.6%
Richard Ojeda: 1.5%
Stacey Abrams: 1.5%
Julian Castro: 1.2%
Steve Bullock: 1.1%
Cory Booker: 1.0%
Michael Bennet: 0.9%
Joe Sanberg: 0.9%
Andrew Gillum: 0.7%
Seth Moulton: 0.7%
John Hickenlooper: 0.6%
Marianna Williamson: 0.4%
Andrew Yang: 0.3%
Jeff Merkely: 0.2%
Terry McAullife: 0.1%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%
Bill De Blasio: 0.0%
Michael Bloomberg: 0.0%
Jay Inslee: 0.0%


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Ryan, Ojeda, Sanberg, Yang Leave Race
Febuary 5th, 2020

Washington Post- After the first contest of the 2020 election cycle began, Senator Amy Klobuchar came out as the winner. Many others claimed victory but some didn't have the same luck as Klobuchar and other Democrats and knew it was time to end their campaigns. Joe Sanberg, who was one of the last Democrats in the race and ran on an eliminate poverty platform, was first to announce to leave the race late last night after it was clear he wouldn't be even close to winning the caucus. Sanberg left the race after just winning 0.9% of the vote in Iowa and left with no endorsement but pledge to endorse later on.

In the early morning, State Senator Richard Ojeda announced he would drop out at his Iowa Election Night rally. Ojeda had a sharp drop in support from the last poll to caucus night and gave an extra boost to Brown when he told his supporters to have Senator Sherrod Brown as their second choice. Ojeda said in his speech, "This is not the end of my political career. I am going to always fight for the people being left behind by President Trump and the rich friend who have helped themselves instead of the people that truly need it." and then Ojeda went on to endorse Brown and stated, "The only other candidate in this field that will fight for unions and progressive values is Sherrod Brown, he has my full support."

Ojeda was not the last to drop out of the race today, the most significant other candidates who dropped out was Representative Tim Ryan who gained national attention for having a leadership battle with Nancy Pelosi. Ryan told his rally last time that this was amazing results and would be bringing delegates from Iowa to the national convection. Ryan also said he would be examining the results and seeing where he will be able to go from here but he sounded confident. In an email to press and top supporters, Ryan announced he would be holding a rally in Akron, Ohio this afternoon to announce he would withdraw from the race and would endorse Representative Seth Moulton who has been a good friend to Ryan in the house. In his home state, Ryan would highlight the failures of President Trump for the manufacturing states of Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. After being asked by a reporter, Ryan said he would be open to a spot on the ticket.

The last to drop out was Andrew Yang who was running on a Universal Basic Income and had been campaigning for president for more than two years. Yang struggled to overcome doubt about how serious his campaign was and it just never was able to come off the ground. Yang ended up dropping his long-shot bid by releasing a statement to the Washington Post saying, "Our campaign wished for better results but we believe we brought a real debate to the national scene. I will not continue as a presidential candidate but I will continue to spread the message of the UBI."


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 15, 2019, 01:50:08 pm
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Congressional Black Caucus Split Support between Harris, Abrams and Booker
Febuary 5th, 2020

Townhall- One of the most influence caucuses in Congress, the Congressional Black Caucus, is splitting its support among three candidates. The only African-American candidate in the race to not receive an endorsement from the all African-American caucus was Former Mayor Andrew Gillum. This could hurt Gillum who has mostly relied on African-American support to win. Already, Gillum was on a downward path after a poor showing in Iowa where he got less than one percent.

The three African-American candidates did receive endorsements were Former State Representative Stacey Abram, Senator Kamala Harris, and Senator Cory Booker. Harris was the only one of the three to have a semi-good performance in Iowa. Harris was able to obtain a delegate and won around three percent of the vote which is two percent better than where she was at the start of the month. Booker and Abrams had around one percent of the vote in Iowa and both have low expectations for New Hampshire where neither has stuck out of the pack.

Harris won over the endorsements of Barbara Lee,  Karen Bass, and Joyce Betty. Booker earned the endorsements of G.k. Butterfield, Cedric Richmond, Elijah Cummings, and Jim Clyburn which will be a big asset in Booker's goal of winning South Carolina. Stacey Abrams only received one endorsement from the caucus, Marcia Fudge of Ohio. Fudge and Betty both abstained from endorsing till their Ohio colleague Tim Ryan dropped out.

Out of the group of endorsers, Jim Clyburn could be the most influence ahead of the crucial South Carolina primary that Gillum, Harris, Abrams, and Booker are all trying to win over before Super Tuesday and a handful of southern states.



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Should Sanders Drop Out and Endorse One of His Followers?
Febuary 7th, 2020

Politico- After a dismal showing in Iowa and falling polls in New Hampshire, is it time for Bernie Sanders to step aside and endorse one of his followers?

Sanders underperformed in Iowa and his falling number partially allowed a Gabbard surge in Iowa. Now, Sanders is seeing his numbers slip in the state he won in a landslide in the 2016 primary against Hillary. Sanders also has had his campaign manager leave his campaign and stated, "I wish I could continue but the campaign has driven itself into the ground and I don't see any way it can come back under my leadership. I hope the next campaign manager can turn around the poll numbers and support of Bernie Sanders."

Sanders will also have to decide if he supports one of his followers who could benefit from his backing especially Elizabeth Warren. Warren has been leading in New Hampshire but, like Sanders, had a dismal result in Iowa and has seen her polls drop in New Hampshire. Warren could even lose the state to Kristen Gillibrand who had grown her organization and support in the state for some time and skipped Iowa. Gillibrand might not even be the winner, she could even lose to the much moderate John Hickenlooper which Sanders and Warren both don't want as they want the party to move to the left.



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Moulton, Klobuchar on the Rise, O'Rourke Moving Effort to Nevada
Febuary 8th, 2020

Boston Globe- After a win in Iowa, Senator Amy Klobuchar is felling the love in New Hampshire. Klobuchar has been rising in the polls both nationally and in Iowa like Senator Ted Cruz did after his surprise win in Iowa. Cruz ended up third in New Hampshire to Donald Trump and John Kasich. Still, Klobuchar has a far way to go till a third-place victory in New Hampshire but she may pass some candidates that have stacked their campaigns in New Hampshire if their hard work doesn't pay off like Michael Bloomberg and Bill De Blasio.


Another candidate on the rise in New Hampshire is Representative Seth Moulton who got a boost of support from an endorsement by former competitor Representative Tim Ryan who dropped out of the race the day after the Iowa caucus. Ryan was polling around two percent in Iowa but two percent can make all the difference in some close races. Moulton also received the backing of Maura Sullivan who he backed in the first congressional district primary in 2018 which she ended up being a runner up into Representative Chris Pappas who has yet endorsed a candidate.

While Moulton and Klobuchar start to build up their campaigns in New Hampshire before the important first in the nation primary, other candidates are pulling efforts away in the final days as they try to lower expectations. Former Representative Beto O'Rourke ended in a close fourth place which was much lower than he wanted or expected with the energy around his candidacy. O'Rourke has stated that he has placed much of his Iowa staffers in the national office or their Nevada field office. O'Rourke also announced that, though he hopes for a victory in New Hampshire, he sees the very little chance of a victory in New Hampshire is and will be moving those staffers to Nevada to help in the effort in that state.



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Bill Weld Endorsed By Larry Hogan, John Kasich and Susan Collins
Febuary 10th, 2020

Concord Journal- Former Governor Bill Weld has gotten a few last minute endorsements ahead of the crucial New Hampshire where Weld has put most of his efforts. Weld so-far has only obtained one delegate from Iowa but now is the lone challenger left against President Trump. In New Hampshire, most polls put Weld between twenty and thirty percent which Weld has called a major victory. Weld has said, by justing winning twenty percent, it means "The GOP is not all in for President Trump and truly some in the Republican do want to become the uniting party it once was."

Weld has gotten a major boost before the polls start to close from three endorsements from influential moderates within the party. Former Governor John Kasich who was mulling his own bid earlier in the year, stated "Governor Weld is by far the better candidate in the primary. He has my full endorsement and I know he will take us down the right path." The last part of the statement was a point to Kasich's famous speech about two paths in 2016. Weld also was endorsed by Governor Larry Hogan who also was considering a run for president himself and he joined the Governor in a rally in New Hampshire on Saturday, saying, "Bill is an uniter, he united Massachusetts and passed needed reforms and he will unite this country when it needs reform after four years of division under President Donald Trump."

The last endorsement that Weld received in the last few days was the Senator from the neighboring state of Maine, Susan Collins. Collins could be hurt with this endorsement as she already is in a tossup race and alienating part of her base is probably not her best path to victory but she has promised she will endorse President Trump if Governor Weld doesn't succeed in the primaries which is very likely.


CNN Final Poll of New Hampshire Republicans
Sample Size: 937
Donald Trump: 68.3%
Bill Weld: 20.8%
Ann Coulter: 7.1%
Undecided: 3.4%


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Rep. Pappas Endorses Pete Buttigieg in last minute endorsment
Febuary 11th, 2019

The Union Leader- In a last-minute endorsement before tomorrow's primary, freshmen Congressmen Chris Pappas, endorsed Mayor Pete Buttigieg in the primary. This comes as a surprise but not a total shock. Many believed Pappas would join with his fellow congressional Democrats and withhold an endorsement till after the primary. Pappas even, up to last week, himself said he planned to stay neutral but did tell the press that he had his candidate picked out for quite some time now.

Pappas, the first gay congressmen from New Hampshire, endorsed Buttigieg who is also gay. Pappas acknowledge that one of the reasons he supported Buttigieg is because Buttigieg being openly gay and a former veteran. Pappas stated, "Buttigieg has stood and fought for our country, risking his own life. All that happened he still could not get married because of his sexual orientation. Buttigieg fought for this country and then for the right to marry. Buttigieg is truly a hero of the LGBT community and will be the perfect opponent to the anti-LGBT team of President Trump and Vice-President Mike Pence." Pappas went on to say, "Not only am I giving my full endorsement to Pete Buttigieg because of his sexual orientation but because he is a progressive hero that turned around a town that was on the brink of the death."

This is a needed boost to Buttigieg who was one of the few remaining candidates that stacked their campaign in Iowa that are left in the race. Buttigieg is scheduled to give a few final speeches in New Hampshire tonight and Buttigieg has said Pappas will be joining for multiple speeches. Pappas will also canvass tomorrow according to Buttigieg and his campaign



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Bernie Sanders: 11.1% (-1.0)
Joe Biden: 10.7% (-1.2)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.3% (-0.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 8.7% (+2.7)
Kamala Harris: 7.1% (+0.4)
Kristen Gillibrand: 6.4% (+0.2)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.1% (-0.6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.0% (+0.9)
Cory Booker: 4.6% (-0.3)
Sherrod Brown: 4.1% (+0.6)
John Delaney: 2.9% (+0.4)
Andrew Gillum: 2.5% (-0.9)
Stacey Abrams: 2.0% (-0.1)
Julian Castro: 1.8% (-0.2)
Michael Bennet: 1.6% (+0.0)
Seth Moulton: 1.5% (+0.4)
John Hickenlooper: 1.4%(+0.1)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.3% (+0.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.1% (-0.4)
Eric Swalwell: 0.4% (-0.1)
Bill De Blasio: 0.3% (+0.0)
Marianna Williamson: 0.3% (+0.1)
Steve Bullock: 0.2% (-0.2)
Terry McAullife: 0.1% (+0.0)
Jeff Merkley: 0.0% (-0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 0.0% (-0.2)
Undecided: 15.2% (+1.5)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Elizabeth Warren: 15.7% (-0.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 11.9% (+0.4)
Bernie Sanders: 11.8% (-1.7)
John Hickenlooper: 6.2% (-0.5)
Michael Bennet: 6.0% (+0.7)
Seth Moulton: 5.7% (+0.2)
Beto O'Rourke: 4.8% (-0.4)
Michael Bloomberg: 4.3% (-0.1)
Joe Biden: 4.3% (-1.4)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.9% (+0.9)
Bill De Blasio: 3.4% (+0.3)
Amy Klobuchar: 3.1% (+1.6)
Kamala Harris: 2.7% (+0.2)
Terry McAuliffe: 2.0% (+0.1)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.7% (+1.3)
Sherrod Brown: 1.6% (+0.7)
Cory Booker: 1.4% (-0.3)
Jay Inslee: 1.3% (+0.1)
Jeff Merkley: 1.1% (+0.1)
John Delaney: 1.1% (+0.3)
Steve Bullock: 0.9% (-0.3)
Stacey Abrams: 0.8% (-0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.7% (-0.2)
Julian Castro: 0.5% (+0.0)
Eric Swalwell: 0.3%  (+0.2)
Andrew Gillum: 0.1% (-0.1)
Undecided: 7.1% (-0.1)

Democrats Delegate Count
56/4,051
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Joe Biden: 10
Sherrod Brown: 7
Beto O'Rourke: 6
Tulsi Gabbard: 5
Bernie Sanders: 3
John Delaney: 3
Elizabeth Warren: 2
Tim Ryan: 2
Kamala Harris: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1

Republican Delegate Count
30/2,472
Donald Trump: 24
Ann Coulter: 5
Bill Weld: 1


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 15, 2019, 03:25:54 pm
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Trump Wins But Is It Really A Victory?
Febuary 12th, 2020

Politico- President Trump was able to win New Hampshire as many expected but it is not the victory to push Governor Bill Weld out of the race that many in the campaign hoped it would be. It might have even done the exact opposite, it might have legitimized the threat of Bill Weld and his dark horse campaign. After this very much underperformance by the President, the President's campaign the President himself may have to admit that they are fighting a two-front war for the next few weeks. This will also make Super Tuesday, all that more important for President Trump, whose campaign believes that is the next time they can push Weld out of the race.

Trump would also have to admit his weakness among Independents and Libertarians who pushed him over the top in a few states in 2016. This may mean Trump needs to readjust his strategy away from the attack dog to a more uniting figure which Weld has played most of the campaign. Trump will also have to spend more money on the primary then he hoped he would which could damage the President in the general election because he needs all the money he can get to defeat whoever the Democrats nominate at their convection.

Weld, on the other hand, has had a treamidious victory with legitimizing his threat against President Trump and now bringing delegates to the convection. Weld now also has shown to donors he can do some damage to the President which could be a big money-making statement to Never Trump donors or even Democratic donors who were already prepared to finance a serious challenge to the President which they did not believe was Bill Weld but this could have changed some minds going forward.


Official New Hampshire Republican Primary on Febuary 12th, 2020
23 Delegates
Donald Trump: 56.7% (14)
Bill Weld: 38.4% (9)
Ann Coulter: 4.9%


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Elizabeth Warren Survives New Hampshire On Top
Febuary 13th, 2020

New York Times- Supporters, Activist, Volunteers, Staffers, and Activist were all up late last night and up into the early morning till news organization started to call New Hampshire in the closet primary in modern history. Senator Elizabeth Warren from neighboring Massachusetts was the winner of the first in the nation primary. Warren was in a battle for first with three other candidates, John Hickenlooper, Bernie Sanders, and Kristen Gillibrand, but Warren was able to fight the bad press to come on top.

Warren had been hailed as a frontrunner in the 2020 Democratic primary since Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016 but her support soon fell from under her after she revealed her DNA test and claimed to be Native American which could haunt her especially in the general election. Warren had even struggled in New Hampshire where she had lead in the polls for just around a month and took a hit for her underperformance in Iowa. Warren still isn't even on top in delegates even though she won New Hampshire and she has few states left in February that could launch her to first place in delegates since Warren struggles with minority voters as Sanders did four years earlier.

Warren was able to claim victory but so did Gillibrand and Hickenlooper who had built an organization that almost have never been seen before because they were so big. Both were dark horses but they could have just launched their campaigns and this is a nice boost and victory to two candidates that are rarely in the headlines.

New Hampshire like in Iowa, multiple candidates put all their effort into the state and many weren't as lucky as Gillibrand and Hickenlooper were. Michael Bloomberg has already stated he would be reassing his campaign in the morning after not reaching the ten percent he put as his goal. Some others have said they would be continuing their campaigns like Bill De Blasio who stated, "I have the money to continue and I believe I have the message so I will not be ending anything tonight even if some establishment Democrats want me to."


Official Democrat New Hampshire Primary on Febuary 12th, 2020
32 Delegates
Eliabeth Warren: 13.7% (7)
Kristen Gillibrand: 13.5% (6)
John Hickenlooper: 12.9% (6)
Bernie Sanders: 11.6% (5)
Seth Moulton: 8.3% (3)
Michael Bennet: 5.4% (2)
Michael Bloomberg: 5.2% (1)
Beto O'Rourke: 4.1% (1)
Joe Biden: 3.4% (1)
Bill De Blasio: 3.2%
Amy Klobuchar: 3.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.1%
Terry McAullife: 3.0%
Pete Buttigieg: 2.3%
Kamala Harris: 1.9%
Sherrod Brown: 1.8%
Jay Inslee: 1.4%
Jeff Merkley: 1.3%
Cory Booker: 1.1%
John Delaney: 1.0%
Marianna Williamson: 0.9%
Stacey Abrams: 0.7%
Steve Bullock: 0.5%
Julian Castro: 0.4%
Eric Swalwell: 0.2%
Andrew Gillum: 0.0%


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Bloomberg, Moulton, Williamson Are Out
Febuary 13th, 2020

Fox News- When all the dust started to settle from the closets New Hampshire primary ever, three more candidates were out of the race. Senator Elizabeth Warren came out on top and many other candidates claimed victory but many candidates also suffered defeats at the hands of the New Hampshire Primary.

Former Mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg was the first candidate to leave the race after finishing five percent short of his goal of ten percent. Bloomberg did receive one delegate from the New Hampshire primary but after spending over fifty million dollars out of his own pocket, it was just not enough to sustain his rocking campaign. This morning, Bloomberg spoke with New Hampshire staffers and volunteers in his Manchester, New Hampshire field office where he hoped would be a victory speech last night. Bloomberg said, "I am so proud of everyone in this crowd, you guys fought for the American values that the country held before America elected the bigot in chief. Sadly, I know I won't be able to beat that man and so I am stepping aside and leaving the race." many staffers in the crowd showed shock, a staffer told Fox News that he was expecting Bloomberg to claim victory. He told us he never thought the pledge was real and many other staffers didn't take it seriously either which is why many were shocked in the crowd. Bloomberg did endorse Joe Biden and claimed, "Biden is the most like me candidate there is in the field, he will make a great president and he has my full backing and support."

Marianne Williamson was the second Democrat to leave the race after a less than a stunning performance where she finished with less than one percent like in Iowa. Williamson had almost no major donors and many radical policies that weren't ready to even be talked about by many Americans who passed her off as a non-serious candidate. Williamson had a very similar statement to another candidate, Andrew Yang, who was also passed off as non-serious and dropped out last week.

The final candidate to suspend his campaign following the first in the nation primary came as a bit of a surprise after an overperformance in the primary. Representative Seth Moulton who came in fifth announced he would be suspending his campaign and would not endorse anyone currently in the field but would endorse the nominee or anyone that can prove they will continue his message.

Some thought to suspend their campaigns, did not and would continue in the primary. Those would be Bill De Blasio who said he had the money to continue, Terry McAuliffe said he would refocus his efforts to South Carolina, Jeff Merkley and Jay Inslee who both say they will continue to Nevada.



Democrats Delegate Count
88/4,051
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Joe Biden: 10
Elizabeth Warren: 9
Bernie Sanders: 8
Sherrod Brown: 7
Beto O'Rourke: 7
Kristen Gillibrand: 6
John Hickenlooper: 6
Tulsi Gabbard: 5
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Michael Bennet: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Kamala Harris: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1

Republican Delegate Count
53/2,472
Donald Trump: 38
Bill Weld: 10
Ann Coulter: 5


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: Catalunya on February 16, 2019, 08:18:02 am
Definitely my favorite TL at the moment.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: NyIndy on February 16, 2019, 12:28:01 pm
Definitely my favorite TL at the moment.
Agreed


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 17, 2019, 03:22:45 pm
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Weld On The Rise
Febuary 16th, 2020

CNN- Bill Weld scored a huge victory for his campaign in New Hampshire last week where he almost doubled what many pollsters and even exit polls projected out of the state. The former Governor is now a formidable challenger to the President and could cost him reelection if the challenge isn't met. President Trump still seems to not take Weld seriously and tweeted out, "Weld and his gang of Democrats who vote for him in New Hampshire isn't even a Republican. What a joke."

Still, President Trump may be facing a few more obstacles in his primary with Weld as Weld rises in the polls. Some donors are also being very cautious with how they spend their funds, some that CNN talked to said that they would have to decide between a donation to Schultz and Trump after New Hampshire. Trump is also losing support Republican establishment supporters that were already on the fence about the President. The latest Republican to abonded President Trump and endorse Weld include Former Governor Brian Sandoval, Former Representative Bob Barr, and Former Representative Barbara Comstock.

For Weld, this momentum may all but stop if he doesn't perform in South Carolina which many experts believe will happen and he will replicate a performance like in Iowa where the President trounced him by double-digits. Even if Weld overperforms in South Carolina and keeps his momentum, Weld will still fall way behind in delegates to the President since South Carolina is a winner take all contest. It does look like Weld with his travel schedule will skip South Carolina and go to Nevada which is a much more friendly state since it has a lot more diversity that has been against the President and his immigration rhetoric. The state also has Libertarian leanings which could help the former-Libertarian.



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Delaney Attacks Green New Deal
Febuary 18th, 2020

The Hill- Freshmen Congresswomen and the most famous Representative in the freshmen class, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, once again proposed her Green New Deal which was killed in a House and Senate vote last year by a substantial margin. Ocasio-Cortez has been able to get about the same amount of support for the Green New Deal as last time with the same sponsor in the Senate, Ed Markley of Massachusetts. Markley is in a tight primary race right now with the current attorney general of the state, Maura Healey. Healey has been running to Markley's left but cosponsors this may help him gain leverage in the primary.

Still, one main presidential candidate is going after the Green New Deal on the Democratic side. While some Democrats like Tulsi Gabbard have said they like the premise of the bill but not what is inside, John Delaney has attacked the bill and not tried to dodge the question. Delaney said, "The promises of the Green New Deal are like the promises of Trump's border wall being paid for by Mexico. They are just that, promises, and they will never come." and Delaney went on to urge the need for Climate Change action. Delaney stated, "I disagree strongly with the Green New Deal but I do strongly believe action needs to be taken to stop climate change in its tracks like a carbon admissions tax."

Delaney had a strong performance in Iowa but his campaign has yet to find a place where he could replicate that performance.



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De Blasio Attacks Warren; Ocasio-Cortez Endorses Warren
Febuary 19th, 2020

New York Post- Before the New Hampshire primary, Senator Elizabeth Warren attacked the Mayor of New York City over the now-cancelled Amazon deal that gave the company three billion dollars in subsideis. Now, Mayor Bill De Blasio is attacking Warren back and blaming the company leaving the city partially on Elizabeth Warren and Congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. De Blasio who had ,a dismal result in New Hampshire, in a rally in Virginia that Warren, "made the company run away with their jobs and money. Warren truly should not win a single New Yorkers vote espically if it was someone that was going to get a job from Amazon. Next, Warren will be coming for the Amazon coming to Arlington so you better not vote for her either."

De Blasio had started to campaign in Super Tuesday states espically, Vermont and Virginia where he believes he has the best chance but De Blasio is lacking momutum and has not gained an endorsment since New Hampshire. Still, as De Blasio likes to say he has 'the money to contitue' and he pledges to do so till he believes his message wouldn't be right for the country.

Soon after De Blasio attacked Warren and Ocasio-Cortez for the failed amazon headquarters, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Warren and appauled Kamala Harris which comes as a blow to Bernie Sanders and Kristen Gillibrand. Ocasio-Cortez worked for the Sanders campaign in New York in 2016 but she has flipped her support and not towards the popular homestate Senator in the race, Kirsten Gillibrand. Warren has already boasted about the endorsment after her win in New Hampshire. The endorsments kept rolling in for Warren who soon after earned the endorsment of Cynthia Nixon who ran for Governor of New York in the primary as the progressive candidate against Governor Andrew Cuomo who endorsed Gillibrand.



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Hickenlooper and Bennet form Colorado Pact
Febuary 20th, 2020

Colorado Politics- Our two favorite sons in the race, Former Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Michael Bennet, have formed a 'Colorado Pact' and realsed the details to national press orginzations. Bennet and Hickenlooper both hope that a western will become president and both hope that western will come from Colorado. They both have stated they don't want to have a blood bath to the end between the two Coloradians espicaly since Bennet and Hickenlooper are close and used to work together during Hickenlooper's days as Mayor of Denver.

Hickenlooper and Bennet have decided that whoever wins Colorado will contitue in the presidential race with the backing of the other candidate after they withdrawal from the race. This is a good decision for both campaigns since both candidates have a similar pragmatism policies that have made them look very similar. What the pact between the two campaigns doesn't state is what will happen if both candidates lose Colorado.

This isn't very unusual of a pact espically since mutiple other candidates that aren't the only one in their homestate have said if they don't win in their homestate then they will drop out and endorse the other favorite son like Eric Swalwell has said about his chances in Califronia.


WSNBC Colorado Poll of Colorado Democrats
Sample Size: 301
John Hickenlooper: 20.2%
Michael Bennet: 14.5%
Joe Biden: 10.1%
Kamala Harris: 9.2%
Beto O'Rourke: 8.7%
Steve Bullock: 7.9%
Jeff Merkley: 5.8%
Bernie Sanders: 4.6%
Julian Castro: 3.9%
Amy Klobuchar: 3.8%
Jay Inslee: 2.3%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.6%
Cory Booker: 1.5%
Eric Swalwell: 1.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1.0%
Bill De Blasio: 0.5%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 0.4%
John Delaney: 0.4%
Stacey Abrams: 0.3%
Sherrod Brown: 0.3%
Andrew Gillum: 0.1%
Terry McAullife: 0.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.0%
Undecided: 1.7%


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Ojeda For Governor
Febuary 21st, 2020

CNN- One of the former presidential candidates have decided on his path forward, anouther campaign. Former long shot presidential candidate and State Senator, Richard Ojeda, launched his bid for Governor of West Virginia. Ojeda dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Senator Sherrod Brown when he obtained less than two percent of the vote in the early state of Iowa. Ojeda in his current campaign, if he wins the primary, will be facing Governor Justice who famously switched parties soon after the election. Justice's favorablity ratings have forever suffered from the switch and Ojeda could win off the unfavorbilty of the current Governor.

Ojeda was recuirted into the race by the current Democratic Governor Assocation chair, Governor Gina Riamondo of Rhode Island. Riamondo, in a statement following Ojeda's launch, stated her pleasure with Ojeda's launch and highlighted the imporantance of electing Democrats across the country and recuirting candidates that can win. Riamondo did not state wether the DGA will be involved in the race.

Ojeda isn't the only former or current presidential candidate that is being urged to join congressional or guberntional elections. Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has been asked to join the Indiana-02 race espically as his presidential campaign has been much less succesful and it looks like it could be coming to an end before even March. Still, Buttigieg says, "I will end this campagin as I started it, on my own terms. I don't know what I will do if I end it but I do know what I will do if I keep running, win this damn thing." Anouther candidate in ther race, Stacey Abrams and Steve Bullock have been both asked to run for senate instead of run for president but many have kept quite about wether those candidates should switch races since they launched their campaigns for president.



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 10.5% (+0.2)
Joe Biden: 10.2% (-0.5)
Bernie Sanders: 9.7% (-1.4)
Amy Klobuchar: 8.9% (+0.2)
Kristen Gillibrand: 7.3% (+0.9)
Kamala Harris: 7.2% (+0.1)
Elizabeth Warren: 6.3% (+1.2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.1% (+0.1)
Cory Booker: 4.2% (-0.4)
Sherrod Brown: 3.9% (-0.2)
John Hickenlooper: 2.8%(+1.4)
John Delaney: 2.5% (-0.4)
Andrew Gillum: 2.4% (-0.1)
Michael Bennet: 2.1% (+0.3)
Stacey Abrams: 2.0% (+0.0)
Julian Castro: 1.5% (-0.3)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.1% (-0.2)
Jay Inslee: 0.9% (-0.2)
Eric Swalwell: 0.5% (+0.1)
Steve Bullock: 0.2% (+0.0)
Bill De Blasio: 0.1% (-0.2)
Terry McAullife: 0.1% (+0.0)
Jeff Merkley: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 16.8% (+1.7)


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 17, 2019, 06:42:07 pm
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Trump Crushes Weld in Highly Conservative South Carolina

Fox News- President Trump not only beat Weld in South Carolina, but he also crushed Weld in the highly conservative south. Weld got some momentum coming off his closer than an expected loss in New Hampshire and earned some southern endorsements like former Georgia Congressmen Bob Barr. Still, Weld could not keep up with Donald Trump who won more than eighty percent of the vote and all of the fifty delegates in the state putting Weld far back in the delegate count.

Trump earned not only a strong delegate lead but the primary victory helped reeginze the campaign and the President who stated at his rally tonight that, "the mainstream media wanted to act like a twenty point win killed my reelection campaign, what a bunch of losers. How about a sixty percent lead over some loser opponent." Trump's campaign also announced that it already raised over one hundred thousand dollars just tonight since the South Carolina primary was called. Trump was on stage with the Vice-President, Former UN Abbasdor Nikki Haley, and Governor Henry McMaster.

Weld still continued his insurgent campaign and told the one hundred supporters that he would continue his bid all away to the convection. Weld stated, "They may say we are down but that's what they said after Iowa. We proved them wrong a week ago, we will prove them wrong in three days in Nevada. Our message of unity is working and showing how Trump has failed this nation with his division."


Official Republican South Carolina Results on Febuary 22nd, 2020
50 Delegates
Donald Trump: 83.6% (50)
Bill Weld: 15.9%
Other: 0.5%


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Kamala Harris Wins Nevada, Holder Switches Endorsment to Harris
Febuary 22nd, 2020

MSNBC- In the Nevada caucus, Senator Kamala Harris of the next door state of California came in first place in yet another close contest. This is Harris's first victory and is giving her momentum going into South Carolina which she hopes will give her a second win with its heavy African American vote. Harris victory didn't end there for the night, Harris also got the endorsement of Former Attorney General Eric Holder. Earlier in the year, Holder endorsed Mayor Andrew Gillum but explained, "I don't see a path forward for Andrew. I believe he is the future leader this nation needs but I hope he takes this as a signal to get out of the race and not further split the African-American vote."

Two Texans also had victories in the Nevada caucus, Beto O'Rourke and Julian Castro landed in the second and third spot. O'Rourke and Castro both invested heavily in Nevada in the final days after both landings in dismal spots in Iowa. Both of those candidates had heavy appeal to Latinos which could help them in future contest like California, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico. O'Rourke claimed victory in his speech and said that only see him on Super Tuesday which could be a signal that he will be skipping the South Carolina primary which is highly competitive between Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker.

The other candidates who have states bordering Nevada as Harris did relatively well with Senator of Colorado Michael Bennet doing the best with a spot in the top five. The other two candidates, Jeff Merkley of Oregon and John Hickenlooper of Colorado, both earned delegates and both stated they would continue on in the race.

The field continued to shrink also, the Governor of Washington Jay Inslee left the race with twenty-two candidates left. Inslee promised that he would drop out if he had a bad showing in Nevada after a poor result in New Hampshire.


Official Democratic Nevada Caucus on Febuary 22nd, 2020
43 Delegates
Kamala Harris: 18.2% (14)
Beto O'Rourke: 14.3% (9)
Julian Castro: 14.1% (6)
Joe Biden: 9.6% (4)
Michael Bennet: 7.1% (3)
Eric Swalwell: 5.7% (2)
Steve Bullock: 5.3% (2)
Jeff Merkley: 4.9% (1)
John Hickenlooper: 4.7% (1)
Jay Inslee: 3.3% (1)
Bernie Sanders: 3.2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.0%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.4%
Stacey Abrams: 1.1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.0%
Cory Booker: 0.8%
Amy Klobuchar: 0.7%
Bill De Blasio: 0.4%
Andrew Gillum: 0.3%
John Delaney: 0.2%
Sherrod Brown: 0.2%
Terry McAullife: 0.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.0%


Democrats Delegate Count
131/4,051
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Beto O'Rourke: 16
Kamala Harris: 15
Joe Biden: 14
Elizabeth Warren: 9
Bernie Sanders: 8
Sherrod Brown: 7
John Hickenlooper: 7
Kristen Gillibrand: 6
Julian Castro: 6
Tulsi Gabbard: 5
Michael Bennet: 5
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Eric Swalwell: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Jeff Merkley: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
103/2,472
Donald Trump: 88
Bill Weld: 10
Ann Coulter: 5


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 18, 2019, 01:57:48 pm
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Gavin Newsom Endorses Kamala Harris; Joe Cunningham Endorses Joe Biden
Febuary 23rd, 2020

CNN- Momutum is continuing to grow for Kamala Harris who just won the Nevada caucus last night. Harris earned the endorsement of Eric Holder, the former Attorney General, in last nights victory rally in Nevada. Holder previously endorsed Andrew Gillum and he continued to praise the former mayor but told the press that it just wasn't Gillum's time. Holder wasn't the only new endorsement for the junior Senator from California. Harris now is endorsed by the Governor of California Gavin Newsom, an ally of Harris for a while in California politics.

Newsom's endorsement of Harris is another blow to Representative Eric Swalwell's bid for president. Swalwell in lue of falling polls in early states, early in the race, decided to withdrawal efforts in New Hampshire and South Carolina and place all efforts in California and Nevada. In Nevada, Swalwell only earned two delegates and seventh place. Now the only road left for Swalwell to the nomination is through a win in California and he needs all the support he can get. Swalwell did earn the endorsement of his predecessor in Congress, Pete Stark, and State Senator Kevin De Leon who came close to taking down Dianne Feinstein, the senior senator in California. Still, it may not be enough especially as much of the California Democratic establishment has supported Harris.

While Swalwell's bid for president continues to fall apart and Harris surges ahead, Joe Biden has also started to gain some new endorsements ahead of the crucial South Carolina primary. Biden has earned the endorsement of Joe Cunnigham, the freshmen Democrat in a pretty-heavy Republican seat. Cunningham beat a pro-Trump Republican who toke out Congressman Mark Sanford in the primary. Cunnighman announced his endorsement of fellow blue-dog Democrat, Joe Biden, in a rally inside of his district. Cunningham also announced his endorsement of the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for Senate, Jamie Harrison. Cunningham said that he supported Biden because 'seats like mine flipped because we were able to win over independents and Republicans with our moderate message in 2018 and that is how we will in 2020 too. The candidate with a moderate message that can win is Joe Biden. He has my full endorsement and I will do everything to help him win not only the South Carolina primary but everything I can to help him win the White House."

Cunningham went on to warn of nominating a progressive candidate with radical policies like Harris. Cunningham stated, "If we nominate someone like Harris or Sanders then we will lose the presidency, the American truly have concerns with their policies and nominating someone like that might cost us a few house seats too especially mine in a pretty-red area."



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Bennet Endorsed By Udall and Polis
Febuary 24th, 2020

Washington Post- In the normally uncompetitive caucus of Colorado is receiving a lot of attention from two favorite sons. The two favorite sons, former Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Michael Bennet, formed a 'Colorado Pact' between the campaigns that have made the state all so important for the state. The pact will make whoever loses Colorado drop out and endorse the other favorite son as both Bennet and Hickenlooper are allies and friends.

Bennet has now started to pull out all the stops for a win in Colorado and has basically only campaigned in Colorado since Nevada and will till Super Tuesday. Hickenlooper, on the other hand, has been travel between Colorado and Oklahoma knowing if he just wins Colorado, it won't be enough for him to catch up to other candidates like Kamala Harris.

Bennet has started to win over some supporters in Colorado including two important Democratic politicians in the state. Former Senator Mark Udall who lost reelection in 2014 and Governor Jared Polis who is a former Congressman both endorsed Bennet who they worked with on Capitol Hill. Polis and Udall both are going campaign with Bennet in Colorado ahead of Super Tuesday.




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Bill Weld Suprises Trump Again in Nevada
Febuary 25th, 2020

The Green Papers- President Donald Trump has once again lost some of his momentum but has further gained a lead in delegates. In Nevada, Trump won with a substantial margin. At least according to the President, he did win with just over sixty percent of the vote but just losing thirty or forty percent of your base could potentially be devasting to a general election campaign. President Trump continues to claim victories from these early primary wins and in a rally, he held in Florida tonight said, "Have you heard of that loser Bill Weld, 0-4. Bill can't win more than thirty or forty percent of the vote and all those press in the crowd are calling him the winner. What a joke!"

Weld had spent a substantial amount of time and gained the endorsement of former Governor Brian Sandoval after having a strong performance in New Hampshire. Weld even was boasting his performance in Nevada in South Carolina after his beating in the primary where President Trump won more than eighty percent of the vote. Weld did do well in Nevada and surprised many pundits again with his results and won multiple delegates in the state.


Official Nevada Republican Caucus on Febuary 25th, 2020
30 Delegates
Donald Trump: 63.4% (19)
Bill Weld: 36.6% (11)


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Gabbard Touts Military Record in South Carolina
Febuary 27th, 2020

The Post and Courier- In the heavily military state, Representative Tulsi Gabbard is boasting about her military record. Gabbard had a strong performance in Iowa and has yet been able to build on her momentum coming off her strong performance but she hopes she can once again revitalize her momentum in a strong finish in South Carolina. In an interview with Gabbard, she stated, "I hope my military record will help win over veterans because we haven't had a veteran in the White House since the 1990s. I hope I can also win over women especially since I believe I can be a strong influence for young girls, not every day do you see a strong woman in politics especially in the presidency."

Gabbard has toured the state since the New Hampshire primary and has taken occasionally trips to Super Tuesday states including her birthplace in American Somoa. Gabbard isn't too far back but she is not in the top tier of candidates either where Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and Cory Booker are. Booker, Biden, and Harris are all in a tight fight for first place in the state and at this point, anyone could win.



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South Carolina is Booker Country
Febuary 29th, 2020

The New York Times- At the begging of the night, the New York Times was told that if Booker didn't take home the prize tonight then he would suspend his campaign and endorse whoever won. Booker even seemed very surprised as early results started to come in and even before the official results came were in, Booker left his suite to start writing a victory speech. His crowd became bigger and bigger as more results started to come in and media from around the state started leaving both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's victory rallies.

Though Harris had momentum coming out of Nevada, Booker and Biden had been building an organization in South Carolina. Biden and Booker had also been gaining endorsements to set them on top including the two Representatives. In some senses, this was also a victory for Biden even if he came in second. Biden had trouble keeping up with the other candidates as they rose and fell but this has turned around his campaign that had been falling in the rankings in results.

While Booker had a tremendous victory in South Carolina and Biden has started to turn around his poor news, Harris, on the other hand, could not claim victory. Harris was expecting a victory and she even admitted that this was not what she hoped when talking with the press outside her rally. This is not even close to the end of her campaign though by any means. Harris has had a strong performance in most early states and is close to becoming first in delegates.

According to one of the creators of the circus, "going into Super Tuesday, Booker has big [momtum], Biden and Harris has the money while Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper, Brown, Gabbard and so on are all trying to win their first or second wins."


Official Democratic South Carolina Results on Febuary 29th, 2020
59 Delegates
Cory Booker: 20.8% (17)
Joe Biden: 14.6% (14)
Kamala Harris: 14.5% (14)
Terry McAullife: 10.2% (9)
Stacey Abrams: 9.7% (6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.5% (4)
Andrew Gillum: 6.3% (3)
Julian Castro: 4.4% (1)
Beto O'Rourke: 2.3%
Elizabeth Warren: 2.1%
Bernie Sanders: 1.6%
Sherrod Brown: 1.5%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.1%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.0%
John Delaney: 1.0%
Bill De Blasio: 0.7%
John Hickenlooper: 0.5%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.4%
Michael Bennet: 0.3%
Jeff Merkley: 0.2%
Steve Bullock: 0.2%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%


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Abrams, Gillum, Buttigieg, Delaney, Bullock Ends Campaigns
March 1st, 2020

NBC News- Not everyone in South Carolina had the night they wished for like Cory Booker and Joe
Biden. Multiple campaigns were ended tonight after poor results in South Carolina or their campaigns have had bad result after bad result and it was not turned around by South Carolina. With a total of five campaigns ending after tonight, the field of candidates is now down to seventeen which is almost half of the original total.

The first to leave the race was long-shot Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana. Buttigieg has had bad results in the first four early contest with his highest being three percent in Iowa. Buttigieg does have one delegate to the convection and that could help influence some candidates to get his endorsement in a very close race at the convection. Buttigieg started to call his biggest donors this morning to tell them of his decision. Buttigieg was planning on having a rally in South Carolina but canceled in the afternoon and sent an email to the press that he would drop out and in a rally next week in South Bend who announced his plans for the future. Many believe Buttigieg will join the Indiana-02 race since Buttigieg has told media that he will be keeping most staff that worked in his headquarters in Indiana.

The Governor of Montana, Steve Bullock, decided he would end his campaign right before the polls officially closed in South Carolina according to his press sectary. Bullock was hoping for a better performance in Iowa and after a dismal showing there, Bullock looked towards Nevada. On the day of the Nevada Caucus, Bullock was prepared to concede the race but Bullock decided to not concede right before he was going on stage. It wasn't till today that Bullock realized there were few paths for him to the nomination. By the time the exit polls showing him last and second to last, Bullock knew the time to leave the race was today. Bullock announced in his home state that he would leave the race and endorsed Joe Biden.

Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum both hoped for good performances tonight but both failed to capture any of the first three places. Gillum had a rough week starting with Eric Holder switching his endorsement to Kamala Harris and then ending with getting in the middle of the pack in a state he put all his money into. In his rally which he hoped would be a victory rally that turned into a suspension rally, he endorsed Senator Bernie Sanders and thanked Sanders for all the help he got in turning out the vote in 2018. Abrams, on the other hand, endorsed Senator Kamala Harris. Abrams stated that Harris is the strongest candidate in the race and is the strongest against President  Trump. Abrams, in a statement released to her supporters, wrote "In 2018, harsh voter suspension tatics were used against people of color in Georgia. In 2020, they will probably use them again but don't let them scare you away from voting. Kamala Harris will be on that ballot and they don't want that but they better get used to it because she is going to replace the racist in the White House next year."

The last candidate to suspend his campaign was former Representative John Delaney who was the longest candidate in the race by far. Delaney had a good performance in Iowa and kept the momentum going into New Hampshire but in South Carolina and Nevada, Delaney couldn't get above one or two percent. Delaney hoped for a good performance in Virginia which is next door to his home state of Maryland but with former Governor Terry McAullife staying in the race, Delaney believed he wouldn't be able to even get in the top three so in the early morning, Delaney suspended his campaign on an interview with Jack Tapper and he endorsed former Governor John Hickenlooper.



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Doug Jones Warns of Progressive Nominee
March 2nd, 2020

Vox- The first Democratic senator to be elected in Alabama in twenty-five years, Doug Jones, who is in a close reelection fight is warning voters not to elect a progressive nominee in 2020. Jones could be one of the easiest seats to be flipped in the general election towards Republicans and Jones says that his reelection bid will 'basically be dead' if the Democrats nominate a progressive like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. Jones says that not only is his seat in jeopardy if they Democrats move to extreme policies but other candidates are too.

Jones stated that Democrats like Tina Smith and Jeanna Shaheen would also face tougher fights since many more voters want a centrist candidate for president which is why Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Bill Weld, and other pragmatic candidates have such high favorabilities. Jones also announced his endorsement of Senator Cory Booker who helped campaign with then-candidate Jones when he was in a close contest with Roy Moore.

The freshmen Senator is facing a tough reelection fight and could be facing a serious challenge for his job that he won in an upset over Roy Moore two years earlier. Jones says he is confident he has a strong campaign and strong volunteers that will lead him to victory especially if someone like Amy Klobuchar or Joe Biden was the nominee since that will win over NeverTrump Republicans in addition to independents.



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 11.4% (+0.9)
Joe Biden: 10.9% (+0.7)
Kamala Harris: 9.8% (+2.6)
Bernie Sanders: 9.4% (-0.3)
Amy Klobuchar: 8.8% (-0.1)
Cory Booker: 7.5% (+2.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 7.4% (+0.1)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.9% (-0.4)
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.2% (+0.1)
Sherrod Brown: 3.6% (-0.3)
John Hickenlooper: 3.4%(+0.6)
Michael Bennet: 2.3% (+0.2)
Julian Castro: 2.1% (+0.6)
Terry McAullife: 1.0% (+0.9)
Eric Swalwell: 0.7% (+0.2)
Bill De Blasio: 0.4% (+0.3)
Jeff Merkley: 0.2% (+0.2)
Undecided: 16.0% (-0.8)

Democrats Delegate Count
190/4,051
Kamala Harris: 29
Joe Biden: 28
Cory Booker: 17
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Beto O'Rourke: 16
Terry McAullife: 9
Elizabeth Warren: 9
Tulsi Gabbard: 9
Bernie Sanders: 8
Sherrod Brown: 7
John Hickenlooper: 7
Julian Castro: 7
Stacey Abrams: 6
Kristen Gillibrand: 6
Michael Bennet: 5
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Eric Swalwell: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Jeff Merkley: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
133/2,472
Donald Trump: 107
Bill Weld: 21
Ann Coulter: 5


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: Catalunya on February 19, 2019, 05:48:25 am
Bernie needs to score a big win on Super Tuesday or it might just be over for him.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: UWS on February 20, 2019, 10:02:27 pm
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Gavin Newsom Endorses Kamala Harris; Joe Cunningham Endorses Joe Biden
Febuary 23rd, 2020

CNN- Momutum is continuing to grow for Kamala Harris who just won the Nevada caucus last night. Harris earned the endorsement of Eric Holder, the former Attorney General, in last nights victory rally in Nevada. Holder previously endorsed Andrew Gillum and he continued to praise the former mayor but told the press that it just wasn't Gillum's time. Holder wasn't the only new endorsement for the junior Senator from California. Harris now is endorsed by the Governor of California Gavin Newsom, an ally of Harris for a while in California politics.

Newsom's endorsement of Harris is another blow to Representative Eric Swalwell's bid for president. Swalwell in lue of falling polls in early states, early in the race, decided to withdrawal efforts in New Hampshire and South Carolina and place all efforts in California and Nevada. In Nevada, Swalwell only earned two delegates and seventh place. Now the only road left for Swalwell to the nomination is through a win in California and he needs all the support he can get. Swalwell did earn the endorsement of his predecessor in Congress, Pete Stark, and State Senator Kevin De Leon who came close to taking down Dianne Feinstein, the senior senator in California. Still, it may not be enough especially as much of the California Democratic establishment has supported Harris.

While Swalwell's bid for president continues to fall apart and Harris surges ahead, Joe Biden has also started to gain some new endorsements ahead of the crucial South Carolina primary. Biden has earned the endorsement of Joe Cunnigham, the freshmen Democrat in a pretty-heavy Republican seat. Cunningham beat a pro-Trump Republican who toke out Congressman Mark Sanford in the primary. Cunnighman announced his endorsement of fellow blue-dog Democrat, Joe Biden, in a rally inside of his district. Cunningham also announced his endorsement of the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for Senate, Jamie Harrison. Cunningham said that he supported Biden because 'seats like mine flipped because we were able to win over independents and Republicans with our moderate message in 2018 and that is how we will in 2020 too. The candidate with a moderate message that can win is Joe Biden. He has my full endorsement and I will do everything to help him win not only the South Carolina primary but everything I can to help him win the White House."

Cunningham went on to warn of nominating a progressive candidate with radical policies like Harris. Cunningham stated, "If we nominate someone like Harris or Sanders then we will lose the presidency, the American truly have concerns with their policies and nominating someone like that might cost us a few house seats too especially mine in a pretty-red area."



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Bennet Endorsed By Udall and Polis
Febuary 24th, 2020

Washington Post- In the normally uncompetitive caucus of Colorado is receiving a lot of attention from two favorite sons. The two favorite sons, former Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Michael Bennet, formed a 'Colorado Pact' between the campaigns that have made the state all so important for the state. The pact will make whoever loses Colorado drop out and endorse the other favorite son as both Bennet and Hickenlooper are allies and friends.

Bennet has now started to pull out all the stops for a win in Colorado and has basically only campaigned in Colorado since Nevada and will till Super Tuesday. Hickenlooper, on the other hand, has been travel between Colorado and Oklahoma knowing if he just wins Colorado, it won't be enough for him to catch up to other candidates like Kamala Harris.

Bennet has started to win over some supporters in Colorado including two important Democratic politicians in the state. Former Senator Mark Udall who lost reelection in 2014 and Governor Jared Polis who is a former Congressman both endorsed Bennet who they worked with on Capitol Hill. Polis and Udall both are going campaign with Bennet in Colorado ahead of Super Tuesday.




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Bill Weld Suprises Trump Again in Nevada
Febuary 25th, 2020

The Green Papers- President Donald Trump has once again lost some of his momentum but has further gained a lead in delegates. In Nevada, Trump won with a substantial margin. At least according to the President, he did win with just over sixty percent of the vote but just losing thirty or forty percent of your base could potentially be devasting to a general election campaign. President Trump continues to claim victories from these early primary wins and in a rally, he held in Florida tonight said, "Have you heard of that loser Bill Weld, 0-4. Bill can't win more than thirty or forty percent of the vote and all those press in the crowd are calling him the winner. What a joke!"

Weld had spent a substantial amount of time and gained the endorsement of former Governor Brian Sandoval after having a strong performance in New Hampshire. Weld even was boasting his performance in Nevada in South Carolina after his beating in the primary where President Trump won more than eighty percent of the vote. Weld did do well in Nevada and surprised many pundits again with his results and won multiple delegates in the state.


Official Nevada Republican Caucus on Febuary 25th, 2020
30 Delegates
Donald Trump: 63.4% (19)
Bill Weld: 36.6% (11)


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Gabbard Touts Military Record in South Carolina
Febuary 27th, 2020

The Post and Courier- In the heavily military state, Representative Tulsi Gabbard is boasting about her military record. Gabbard had a strong performance in Iowa and has yet been able to build on her momentum coming off her strong performance but she hopes she can once again revitalize her momentum in a strong finish in South Carolina. In an interview with Gabbard, she stated, "I hope my military record will help win over veterans because we haven't had a veteran in the White House since the 1990s. I hope I can also win over women especially since I believe I can be a strong influence for young girls, not every day do you see a strong woman in politics especially in the presidency."

Gabbard has toured the state since the New Hampshire primary and has taken occasionally trips to Super Tuesday states including her birthplace in American Somoa. Gabbard isn't too far back but she is not in the top tier of candidates either where Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and Cory Booker are. Booker, Biden, and Harris are all in a tight fight for first place in the state and at this point, anyone could win.



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South Carolina is Booker Country
Febuary 29th, 2020

The New York Times- At the begging of the night, the New York Times was told that if Booker didn't take home the prize tonight then he would suspend his campaign and endorse whoever won. Booker even seemed very surprised as early results started to come in and even before the official results came were in, Booker left his suite to start writing a victory speech. His crowd became bigger and bigger as more results started to come in and media from around the state started leaving both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's victory rallies.

Though Harris had momentum coming out of Nevada, Booker and Biden had been building an organization in South Carolina. Biden and Booker had also been gaining endorsements to set them on top including the two Representatives. In some senses, this was also a victory for Biden even if he came in second. Biden had trouble keeping up with the other candidates as they rose and fell but this has turned around his campaign that had been falling in the rankings in results.

While Booker had a tremendous victory in South Carolina and Biden has started to turn around his poor news, Harris, on the other hand, could not claim victory. Harris was expecting a victory and she even admitted that this was not what she hoped when talking with the press outside her rally. This is not even close to the end of her campaign though by any means. Harris has had a strong performance in most early states and is close to becoming first in delegates.

According to one of the creators of the circus, "going into Super Tuesday, Booker has big [momtum], Biden and Harris has the money while Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper, Brown, Gabbard and so on are all trying to win their first or second wins."


Official Democratic South Carolina Results on Febuary 29th, 2020
59 Delegates
Cory Booker: 20.8% (17)
Joe Biden: 14.6% (14)
Kamala Harris: 14.5% (14)
Terry McAullife: 10.2% (9)
Stacey Abrams: 9.7% (6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.5% (4)
Andrew Gillum: 6.3% (3)
Julian Castro: 4.4% (1)
Beto O'Rourke: 2.3%
Elizabeth Warren: 2.1%
Bernie Sanders: 1.6%
Sherrod Brown: 1.5%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.1%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.0%
John Delaney: 1.0%
Bill De Blasio: 0.7%
John Hickenlooper: 0.5%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.4%
Michael Bennet: 0.3%
Jeff Merkley: 0.2%
Steve Bullock: 0.2%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%


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Abrams, Gillum, Buttigieg, Delaney, Bullock Ends Campaigns
March 1st, 2020

NBC News- Not everyone in South Carolina had the night they wished for like Cory Booker and Joe
Biden. Multiple campaigns were ended tonight after poor results in South Carolina or their campaigns have had bad result after bad result and it was not turned around by South Carolina. With a total of five campaigns ending after tonight, the field of candidates is now down to seventeen which is almost half of the original total.

The first to leave the race was long-shot Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana. Buttigieg has had bad results in the first four early contest with his highest being three percent in Iowa. Buttigieg does have one delegate to the convection and that could help influence some candidates to get his endorsement in a very close race at the convection. Buttigieg started to call his biggest donors this morning to tell them of his decision. Buttigieg was planning on having a rally in South Carolina but canceled in the afternoon and sent an email to the press that he would drop out and in a rally next week in South Bend who announced his plans for the future. Many believe Buttigieg will join the Indiana-02 race since Buttigieg has told media that he will be keeping most staff that worked in his headquarters in Indiana.

The Governor of Montana, Steve Bullock, decided he would end his campaign right before the polls officially closed in South Carolina according to his press sectary. Bullock was hoping for a better performance in Iowa and after a dismal showing there, Bullock looked towards Nevada. On the day of the Nevada Caucus, Bullock was prepared to concede the race but Bullock decided to not concede right before he was going on stage. It wasn't till today that Bullock realized there were few paths for him to the nomination. By the time the exit polls showing him last and second to last, Bullock knew the time to leave the race was today. Bullock announced in his home state that he would leave the race and endorsed Joe Biden.

Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum both hoped for good performances tonight but both failed to capture any of the first three places. Gillum had a rough week starting with Eric Holder switching his endorsement to Kamala Harris and then ending with getting in the middle of the pack in a state he put all his money into. In his rally which he hoped would be a victory rally that turned into a suspension rally, he endorsed Senator Bernie Sanders and thanked Sanders for all the help he got in turning out the vote in 2018. Abrams, on the other hand, endorsed Senator Kamala Harris. Abrams stated that Harris is the strongest candidate in the race and is the strongest against President  Trump. Abrams, in a statement released to her supporters, wrote "In 2018, harsh voter suspension tatics were used against people of color in Georgia. In 2020, they will probably use them again but don't let them scare you away from voting. Kamala Harris will be on that ballot and they don't want that but they better get used to it because she is going to replace the racist in the White House next year."

The last candidate to suspend his campaign was former Representative John Delaney who was the longest candidate in the race by far. Delaney had a good performance in Iowa and kept the momentum going into New Hampshire but in South Carolina and Nevada, Delaney couldn't get above one or two percent. Delaney hoped for a good performance in Virginia which is next door to his home state of Maryland but with former Governor Terry McAullife staying in the race, Delaney believed he wouldn't be able to even get in the top three so in the early morning, Delaney suspended his campaign on an interview with Jack Tapper and he endorsed former Governor John Hickenlooper.



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Doug Jones Warns of Progressive Nominee
March 2nd, 2020

Vox- The first Democratic senator to be elected in Alabama in twenty-five years, Doug Jones, who is in a close reelection fight is warning voters not to elect a progressive nominee in 2020. Jones could be one of the easiest seats to be flipped in the general election towards Republicans and Jones says that his reelection bid will 'basically be dead' if the Democrats nominate a progressive like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. Jones says that not only is his seat in jeopardy if they Democrats move to extreme policies but other candidates are too.

Jones stated that Democrats like Tina Smith and Jeanna Shaheen would also face tougher fights since many more voters want a centrist candidate for president which is why Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Bill Weld, and other pragmatic candidates have such high favorabilities. Jones also announced his endorsement of Senator Cory Booker who helped campaign with then-candidate Jones when he was in a close contest with Roy Moore.

The freshmen Senator is facing a tough reelection fight and could be facing a serious challenge for his job that he won in an upset over Roy Moore two years earlier. Jones says he is confident he has a strong campaign and strong volunteers that will lead him to victory especially if someone like Amy Klobuchar or Joe Biden was the nominee since that will win over NeverTrump Republicans in addition to independents.



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 11.4% (+0.9)
Joe Biden: 10.9% (+0.7)
Kamala Harris: 9.8% (+2.6)
Bernie Sanders: 9.4% (-0.3)
Amy Klobuchar: 8.8% (-0.1)
Cory Booker: 7.5% (+2.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 7.4% (+0.1)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.9% (-0.4)
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.2% (+0.1)
Sherrod Brown: 3.6% (-0.3)
John Hickenlooper: 3.4%(+0.6)
Michael Bennet: 2.3% (+0.2)
Julian Castro: 2.1% (+0.6)
Terry McAullife: 1.0% (+0.9)
Eric Swalwell: 0.7% (+0.2)
Bill De Blasio: 0.4% (+0.3)
Jeff Merkley: 0.2% (+0.2)
Undecided: 16.0% (-0.8)

Democrats Delegate Count
190/4,051
Kamala Harris: 29
Joe Biden: 28
Cory Booker: 17
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Beto O'Rourke: 16
Terry McAullife: 9
Elizabeth Warren: 9
Tulsi Gabbard: 9
Bernie Sanders: 8
Sherrod Brown: 7
John Hickenlooper: 7
Julian Castro: 7
Stacey Abrams: 6
Kristen Gillibrand: 6
Michael Bennet: 5
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Eric Swalwell: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Jeff Merkley: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
133/2,472
Donald Trump: 107
Bill Weld: 21
Ann Coulter: 5

Normally, in a Democratic primary contest, you need to get at least 15 % of the vote in order to have a share of delegates.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: 2016 on February 21, 2019, 01:30:30 pm
If this is REAL TIME come January/February/March 2020 that Democrats have to choose between O'Rourke and Harris Trump may very well get reelected.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 21, 2019, 04:34:16 pm
@UWS, In real life Democrats would need 15% but I put aside that rule because....well, you will have to wait and see. I donít want to reveal too much


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 21, 2019, 06:26:47 pm
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The Night of the Women: Super Tuesday 2020
Sanders, Merkley, De Blasio, McAullife, Bennet, Swalwell, Castro Out
March 3rd, 2020

Politico- The women in the presidential race made their mark on presidential politics as all five women left in the race won at least one contest. The winner of the night, Senator Kamala Harris, was the first African-American women to win more than one contest, winning three in one night. Harris won the most delegates of the night, winning 274 delegates which were mostly powered by California. Harris won more than sixty delegates more than the second highest, Beto O'Rourke. Harris is the clear frontrunner in delegates but after super Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight updated their prediction of a brokered convention. With a fourth of the delegates being committed, the prediction of a broked convection is up from ten percent to thirty percent.

Harris wasn't the only successful women running on Super Tuesday, every other woman in the race at least won one race. Tulsi Gabbard might have had fewer delegates than most other candidates, she was able to win two races, Democrats Aboard and American Samoa. The least successful of the candidates, Amy Klobuchar even though won the second most delegates out of the women candidates but all ninety came from her landslide victory in her home state of Minnesota. The other two candidates, Elizabeth Warren, and Kirsten Gillibrand won around sixty to seventy delegates each and performed well in the northeast.

The most successful of the male candidates in the race was Beto O'Rourke, the former Representative and the last of the 2018 stars that ran for president in 2020 in the race. O'Rourke took two states and was able to push Julian Castro out of the race with his win in the two's home state of Texas. O'Rourke is now in third place to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and is in a strong position to be the nominee. Biden, himself, did pretty well with a few strong second and third places but he lacked a win that other candidates can point to as the reason they are staying in the race.

Still not all candidates performed as they expected. Mayor Bill De Blasio was the first to suspend his bid after winning only ten delegates in two of the early contest and not even being able to get in the five in Virginia which was a state he campaigned in since New Hampshire. De Blasio endorsed his home-state Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand and pledged to support her at the convection. De Blasio also stated his distrust in the government under Trump and attacked his 'racism'.

The second to suspend was the Former Governor of Virginia, Terry McAullife. McAullife aimed to win Virginia and his campaign and most political pundits believed he had a clear lead in the state but consistent attacks about his support of Ralph Northam tanked his campaign and allowed a surprise win by Kirsten Gillibrand. McAullife endorsed Joe Biden and asked other candidates other than Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden to drop out to unite the party so the country doesn't have to live with him for the next four years.

The next three candidates, Senator Michael Bennet, Former HUD Sectary Julian Castro, and Representative Eric Swalwell, dropped out because, like McAullife, had poor results in their home state. Bennet pledged to endorse John Hickenlooper if he didn't win in Colorado in the 'Colorado Pact'. In his suspension speech, Bennet seemed as if he wanted to continue but by the end, the endorsement came for Hickenlooper. The endorsement could have hurt his chances at a Vice-Presidential slot as both Gillibrand and Klobuchar have both looked at Bennet to be on their tickets if nominated. Another potential Vice-President, Julian Castro who lost his home state of Texas in a close race to O'Rourke. Castro surprised his crowd and even earned some boos for his surprise endorsement of Kamala Harris. Castro told the party, similar to McAullife, that unity is the most important thing going forward. The third suspension of the three was Representative Eric Swalwell who withdrew efforts in Iowa and New Hampshire early on to focus on Nevada and California but a poor performance in Nevada and the third place in his home state forced him to suspend his campaign. Swalwell endorsed Harris as expected and applauded her work in his home state.

At one in the morning, one of the last to suspend in the night called into CNN to announce his exit from the race after having his best performance be a fourth place in California. Senator Jeff Merkley best performance gave him seventy-four delegates but after the campaign did some soul searching, Merkley knew it was time to leave the race. Merkley announced his endorsement of Elizabeth Warren and urged progressives to unite around her campaign.

The last and most surprising exit of the night came from Senator Bernie Sanders who only won his home state of Vermont. Sanders surprised his supporters and even his top staff with the news of his exit from the race. Sanders was not able to get off the ground like he did in 2016 but his fundraising remained strong throughout the campaign cycle even while his base started to abbonded him after his third place in New Hampshire. Sanders announced he would endorse a the convection but hopes a progressive is a nominee.


Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): (274 Delegates)
1st:
Califronia, Georgia, Tennesee

2nd:
Alabama

3rd:
North Carolina

Former Representative Beto O'Rourke (D-TX): (209 Delegates)
1st:
Texas, Oklahoma

2nd:

3rd:
American Somoa

Former Vice-President Joe Biden (D-DE): (208 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:
American Samoa, California, North Carolina

3rd:
Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, Virginia, Minnesota

Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX): (135 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:
Texas

3rd:

Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ): (130 Delegates)
1st:
Alabama, North Carolina

2nd:
Georgia

3rd:
Tennesee

Represenative Eric Swalwell (D-CA): (92 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:

3rd:
California

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): (90 Delegates)
1st:
Minnesota

2nd:

3rd:

Senator Jeff Merkey (D-OR): (79 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:

3rd:

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): (72 Delegates)
1st:
Masachuetts

2nd:
Vermont

3rd:
Democrats Aboard

Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH): (70 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:
Tennesee

3rd:
Oklahoma

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): (64 Delegates)
1st:
Virginia

2nd:

3rd:
Massachusetts

Former Governor John Hickenlooper: (53 Delegates)
1st:
Colorado

2nd:
Oklahoma

3rd:

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT): (51 Delegates)
1st:
Vermont

2nd:
Democrats Aboard, Massacheutts

3rd:

Former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA): (41 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:
Virginia

3rd:

Represenative Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): (33 Delegates)
1st:
American Samoa, Democrats Aboard

2nd:

3rd:

Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO): (22 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:
Colorado

3rd:

Mayor Bill De Blasio (D-NY): (10 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:

3rd:
Vermont


Democrats Delegate Count
1,823/4,051
Kamala Harris: 303
Joe Biden: 236
Beto O'Rourke: 225
Cory Booker: 147
Julian Castro: 142
Amy Klobuchar: 106
Eric Swalwell: 94
Elizabeth Warren: 81
Jeff Merkley: 80
Sherrod Brown: 77
Kristen Gillibrand: 69
John Hickenlooper: 60
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Tulsi Gabbard: 42
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1



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Weld Suprise Win in Vermont, Trump Cruises in South
March 3rd, 2020

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FiveThirtyEight- Donald Trump has made a clear delegate lead after tonight and shown where he does best the south. Governor Weld, knowing many southerners were social conservatives, decided to basically skip the south and campaign in the more Liberal-Republican of the country. Weld's campaigning in those Liberal-Republican states did pay off in the northeast where Weld scored an upset win over the president in the closest Republican primary this season. In 2016, John Kasich almost scored a victory in Vermont winning around thirty-two percent to Donald Trump's thirty-six. Trump couldn't hold onto a state that he won just four years earlier.

Weld performed well in Alaska where he kept Trump below sixty-five percent. The biggest loss for Weld and his campaign came in his home state of Massachusetts where he barely lost to Trump. Weld was not expecting to win Massachusetts but a loss in a home state is almost always devasting to a campaign.

At the end of the night, Trump has gained 509 new delegates which were five times Weld haul of just eighty-six delegates. Now, Trump has about a six times lead in delegates.




Republican Delegate Count
728/2,472
Donald Trump: 616
Bill Weld: 107
Ann Coulter: 5


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The Third Parties Primaries Start
March 4th, 2020

Reason- While the two major parties have absorbed much of the attention from their Super Tuesday primaries, they weren't the only parties to hold contest Wednesday. The Libertarians held contests in four states, California, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. The contest victories were split between the major candidates and no major candidate emerge as the frontrunner so far. Still, no delegates have been allocated as of yet and the real thing that matters in the Libertarian primary is the convection.

In the primary, Tom Campbell won the California primary, Joe Walsh won the Oklahoma primary, John McAfee won the North Carolina primary and Larry Sharpe won the Massachusetts primary.  Technically both Walsh and McAfee didn't win but were runner-ups to uncommitted which won easily in both states. With the split decision, Representative Justin Amash has now brought up the idea of running on the Liberartian ticket again but promises to stay out of the race unless Weld drops out of the primary.

In the Green Party, they may be seeing a real serious candidate to join the race. One of Bernie Sanders former endorsers, Representative Ro Khanna, has announced he will launch a longshot bid for the president on the green party platform if Elizabeth Warren doesn't become the nominee. Khanna has already announced he will be searching for staff in the effort but multiple high-level Democrat leadership have condemned Khanna for trying to split the Democratic vote. The leadership stated Khanna would only allow a third Trump term.


Official Libertarian Califronia Primary Results on March 3rd, 2020
Tom Campbell: 45.2%
Uncommited: 12.1%
Larry Sharpe: 11.9%
Sam Sedar: 8.7%
Adam Kokesh: 8.0%
Joe Walsh: 7.2%
John McAfee: 5.6%
Arvin Vohar: 1.3%

Official Libertarian Massachuetts Primary Results on March 3rd, 2020
Larry Sharpe: 36.5%
Sam Sedar: 21.3%
Joe Walsh: 14.1%
Tom Campbell: 11.9%
John McAfee: 6.2%
Uncommited: 5.7%
Arvin Vohar: 2.7%
Adam Kokesh: 1.6%

Official Libertarian North Carolina Primary Results on March 3rd, 2020
Uncommited: 58.6%
John McAfee: 20.5%
Joe Walsh: 5.1%
Larry Sharpe: 4.5%
Tom Campbell: 4.4%
Sam Sedar: 2.7%
Adam Kokesh: 2.2%
Arvin Vohar: 2.1%

Official Libertarian Oklahoma Primary Results on March 3rd, 2020
Uncommited: 44.2%
Joe Walsh: 24.4%
Adam Kokesh: 14.7%
Larry Sharpe: 6.5%
John McAfee: 5.6%
Tom Campbell: 3.3%
Sam Sedar: 0.9%
Arvin Vohar: 0.5%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 23, 2019, 07:45:24 pm
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Sabato Crystal Ball Updates Senate and Congressional Election Predictions
March 5th, 2020

Sabato Crystal Ball- While most reporters were focused on the Super Tuesday primaries but dozens of congressional and senate races were put in the general election phase of the campaign. Now, the Sabato Crystal Ball can officially update our senate prediction for the 2020 election and have updated the closets races in the congressional races. This will not be the last update that will change our forecast subsatnly especially with more primaries to come but this is to give an earlier view as to what may come on an election day.

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Senate Forecast
51 R-46 D-3 Tossup

Most Likely to Flip
Alabama (Likely R)
Sen. Doug Jones (D) vs Rep. Martha Roby (R)

The most likely seat to flip is Alabama which is currently held by moderate Democrat, Senator Doug Jones. Jones won in an upset over scandal-ridden former justice, Roy Moore. Jones is now facing a much tougher opponent who could take away some of the bases that help propel him to victory three years ago, women. One of the few women on the Republican side of the aisle in Congress, Representative Martha Roby, was able to win her primary in Alabama with just over fifty percent of the vote to avoid a runoff. Roby will be a formidable challenger especially with her strong primary victory and a strong base of support in her home district. Jones shouldn't lose all hope but this looks to be another southern seat out of reach for Democrats to hold onto.

Colorado (Tossup)
Sen. Cory Gardner (R) vs Former Treasure Cary Kennedy (D)

Senator Cory Gardner was able to win in a close election over Mark Udall just six years ago in a Republican wave with a conservative message. Gardner has kept high enough favorability but can he survive a blue tide. Right now, the race is a tossup. Gardner is a strong campaigner and leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2018 to retain the Senate. Still, Democrats are ready to flip the seat and make Colorado forever a blue state as it has been turning. Gardner will be fighting like hell against former Treasure Cary Kennedy who was the runner-up in the Democratic Gubernatorial primary two years ago. Kennedy has been attacking Gardner over the lack of diversity in the Senate candidate two years ago but Gardner has continually attacked back by saying he backed candidates based on values, not gender or any skin color. Kennedy has also gone against Gardner for his pro-life values but that was a failed campaign tactic of Udall in 2014.

Georgia (Tossup)
Sen. David Perdue (R) vs Former State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D)

Senator David Perdue had a pretty easy victory in 2014 but in this election, he is facing a stronger challenger then six years ago. Perdue has a strong operation and has been preparing for a reelection fight for four years knowing he would be a target after Democrats first targeted Georgia in 2016 then in 2018. His challenger will be the former presidential candidate, Stacey Abrams. Abrams was not able to get on the primary ballot but the nominee dropped out so Abrams could fill their spot like what happened in Indiana in 2016 with Evan Bayh. Abrams has growing support and nearly won the governor's seat just two years ago but the blue wave will be much smaller this year then in 2018 so she may need to fight twice as hard to win against Perdue.

North Carolina (Tossup)
Sen. Thom Tillis (R) vs Unknown (D)*

Senator Thom Tillis has favorability ratings that have just continued to drop and Tillis even knew with his favorability ratings he wouldn't be able to win the governorship which is one of the reasons Tillis stayed in the senate race. Tillis hopes his incumbency can save his chances and can replicate a victory like the senior Senate of North Carolina had in 2016. Tillis does still have strong supporters with he NRSC which could put Tillis's race at the top of most win states. Tillis still doesn't know who is a challenger is yet but his campaign believes he has a strong chance of winning against every single one of them.

Arizona (Tilt R)
Sen. Martha McSally (R) vs Unknown (D)*

Senator Martha McSally was appointed to replace Senator John Kyl who replaced Senator John McCain. McSally is a former Representative who lost in a close Senate election in 2018 before being appointed to McCain's former seat. McSally is liked in the area with some strong critics of her 2018 campaign attacks on Krysten Sinema. McSally did win praise for her concession and handling of the recount in 2018. McSally has some critcs on the right for her past NeverTrump support but most Republicans fall in line by-election especially if McSally is facing a progressive candidate like Representative Rebun Gallego.

The opponent is not known yet since the primary has not been held but the two frontrunners are Gallego and Kelly and both pose a significant challenge to McSally in the general election.


Maine (Tilt R)
Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs Unknown (D)*

Senator Susan Collins became a top target after her vote of support for Judge Kavanaugh and the Democrats have a war chest to defeat the incumbent. Collins has always won her elections easily but this may be different with the Democrats ready with strong candidates in the primary. Still, Collins has strong supporters on both sides of the aisle but she still could lose a strong backer of hers in the past, women, depending on the candidate nominated. The frontrunners for the nomination are Betsy Sweet, Susan Rice, and Zak Ringelson. Rice is the most likely nominee but many women in the primaries want Sweet to be the nominee and have earned endorsements from Emily's list.

House Forecast
228 D-196 R-11 Tossup
118 Safe-20 Likely- 20 Tilt-11 Tossup-16 Tilt-26 Likely-154 Safe


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Brown Wins Kansas; O'Rourke Wins Lousiana
March 7th, 2020

Washington Post- In a surprise victory, Beto O'Rourke won the neighboring state of Lousiana over the presumed favorite, Senator Kamala Harris. O'Rourke won with just twenty percent of the vote meaning the primaries are still very close and very divided. O'Rourke was jubilant at his rally with supporters and volunteers. In his rally, O'Rourke declared "Super Tuesday made this a three-person race and I just won an upset over both. I am feeling like the frontrunner tonight." and he went on to say, "If you want the media to treat us like the frontrunners we are then we need to continue to win these upsets till they are no longer upsets."

O'Rourke's victory was mostly powered by a large Latino turnout which is a strong base for him and helped him win Texas and Oklahoma. This could be a powerful base for O'Rourke especially as states like Arizona and Florida that give out loads of delegates in March. With those states wins, you won't be seeing O'Rourke leave the race any time soon but that is if.

O'Rourke wasn't the only one excited about results in tonight's contest. Sherrod Brown who has been campaigning on the dignity of work message won his first state in an upset over Joe Biden. Biden didn't get in the top two after Amy Klobuchar bypassed him in the final few minutes of results coming in. Biden, unlike O'Rourke, could be seeing his campaign come to an end. Not only has Biden been unable to win a single state but top-level staffers have been reported sending out their resumes to different campaigns.

Biden still seemed upbeat at his rally and played the show must go on at his rally in Kansas. Biden pledged to stay in the race and fight for the centrist views and fight for America. After the rally, Biden did five interviews where he denied he was leaving the field.


Official Kansas Democratic Caucus on March 7th, 2020
37 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 23.7% (17)
Amy Klobuchar: 20.9% (12)
Joe Biden: 14.6% (6)
John Hickenlooper: 9.2% (2)
Beto O'Rourke: 7.3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.1%
Kamala Harris: 5.2%
Cory Booker: 5.2%
Kristen Gillibrand: 4.6%
Elizabeth Warren: 2.2%

Official Lousiana Democratic Primary on March 7th, 2020
59 Delegates
Beto O'Rourke: 19.2% (19)
Kamala Harris: 18.8% (16)
Cory Booker: 16.3% (13)
Joe Biden: 13.1% (6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 10.5% (4)
Amy Klobuchar: 6.6% (1)
Sherrod Brown: 5.3%
John Hickenlooper: 5.1%
Kristen Gillibrand: 3.5%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.1%


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Trump Takes Three and Weld Adds Second Win
March 7th, 2020

Fox News- President Trump sweep three victories and has come ever closer to the delegate threashold needed to win the nomination. The longshot, insurgent challenge from Bill Weld has gained steam but he is still is failing to catch up to Donald Trump. Weld was able to win in Maine but by a very close margin and could be come even closer if the abstain vote goes President Trump's way.

Trump was able to win in Lousiana, Kansas and Kentucky in landslides. Trump's closets victory was in Kentucky where he won over seventy percent of the vote. Mostly the voters who went against Trump were angery at President Trump's trade war witht he large agriculture work force in the state. In Kansas and Lousiana, President Trump's victories were landslides and he won over eighty percent of the vote in both states. The victories for President Trump didn't end there for his campaign, a number of represenatives and former represenatives signed a letter endorsing the president inculding Represenative Paul Gosar, Morgan Griffith, Jim Renacci, Ken Calvert, Bob Gibbs and more from across the country.

Weld was able to win in the Maine caucus just two states away from Weld's first win in Vermont. Weld has said he has comfortable fundraising now but he will need more than just two states to win the nomination but has pledged to stay in the race till Trump wins the delegates needed.


Official Kansas Republican Caucus on March 7th, 2020
40 Delegates
Donald Trump: 86.7% (39)
Bill Weld: 13.3% (1)

Official Lousiana Republican Primary on March 7th, 2020
43 Delegates
Donald Trump: 92.5% (43)
Bill Weld: 7.5%

Official Kentucky Republican Caucus on March 7th, 2020
46 Delegates
Donald Trump: 72.6% (39)
Bill Weld: 27.4% (7)

Official Maine Republican Caucus on March 7th, 2020
23 Delegates
Bill Weld: 52.9% (14)
Donald Trump: 47.1% (9)


RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 16.6% (+5.2)
Kamala Harris: 14.1% (+4.3)
Joe Biden: 11.4% (+0.5)
Amy Klobuchar: 9.5% (+0.7)
Elizabeth Warren: 8.8% (+2.9)
Cory Booker: 8.7% (+1.2)
Kristen Gillibrand: 7.6% (+0.2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.1% (+0.9)
Sherrod Brown: 5.0% (+1.4)
John Hickenlooper: 3.9%(+0.5)
Undecided: 14.3% (-1.7)

Democrats Delegate Count
1,919/4,051
Kamala Harris: 319
Joe Biden: 248
Beto O'Rourke: 244
Cory Booker: 160
Julian Castro: 142
Amy Klobuchar: 119
Sherrod Brown: 94
Eric Swalwell: 94
Elizabeth Warren: 81
Jeff Merkley: 80
Kristen Gillibrand: 69
John Hickenlooper: 62
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Tulsi Gabbard: 46
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
830/2,472
Donald Trump: 746
Bill Weld: 129
Ann Coulter: 5


Gallup Poll of Kansas Senate Race
Jake LaTurner (R): 52.4%
Paul Davis (D): 40.2%
Greg Orman(I): 3.7%
Undecided: 3.7%

Change Poll of Alabama Senate Race
Martha Roby (R): 56.9%
Doug Jones (D): 37.1%
Undecided: 3.0%

ARG Poll of Michigan Senate Race
Gray Peters (D): 51.2%
John James (R): 43.5%
Undecided: 5.3%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 25, 2019, 09:40:31 pm
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McConnell's Seat is Getting Closer
March 8th, 2020

The Hill- The Democrats and Senator Chuck Schumer recuirted a high profile challenger to the current Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell. McConnell is running for reelection in deep red Kentucky. The falling favorability ratings of McConnell and his repeated attacks from even members from his own party have made his reelection uncertain. The race is still called Likely Republican from the Sabato Crystal Ball but the polls have come closer between McConnell and his opponent, Amy McGrath.

McGrath just recently jumped in the race but she is the only serious candidate in the primary and has been using this time to attack McConnell. McGrath has already gained millions of dollars and started to run ads. Still, McGrath does not only have millions of dollars in the bank but she has also had a strong back story of being a women fighter pilot and she has gained national endorsements including all the Democratic candidate for president and even Howard Shultz.

McConnell is ready to fit back though, he has even raised millions of dollars against McGrath to raise her unfavorability. McConnell has also already received a letter gaining an endorsement from the whole Republican congressional delegation and has held multiple rallies with Senator Rand Paul.



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Gabbard Goes After Trump's 'America First'
March 9th, 2020

MSNBC- After trailing in polls and falling behind in delegates, Representative Tulsi Gabbard is going after the president ahead of the crucial, Super Tuesday II. Gabbard went after the President's reelection campaign motto of American First, one of many themes the President is running on. Gabbard stated the President obviously doesn't follow his own motto of 'America First' since he has already started conflicts across the world that don't put Americans first or veterans first. Gabbard also went on and said, "I am a veteran, I served my country and I can't bear the sight of our President putting people like me's life on the line."

Gabbard has been falling behind especially with winning only thirty-three delegates on Super Tuesday. Gabbard has continued to win the small contest which has powered her campaign and has helped pushed her campaign forward. Still, Gabbard hopes to add multiple more contest or she has said that the campaign may not last.



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Super Tuesday II
Biden Leaves Race
March 10th, 2020


New York Times- Super Tuesday was able to launch, Senator Kamala Harris's campaign to frontrunner status leaving the other top two candidates in the dust. Harris has yet to continue to grow her campaign beyond the south but has remained on top of the field even after only winning one state in Super Tuesday II. Harris does have real competition though for her spot as the frontrunner from the big winner of Super Tuesday II, Senator Sherrod Brown.

Last week, Brown won his first state of Kansas and now has three wins in his column after tonight with wins in Ohio and Missouri. Brown also came close to winning Michigan in a tight race up until the end with Senator Amy Klobuchar. Still, Brown might have affected the race the most in his third place in Mississippi pushing Joe Biden to fourth place. Already, Biden was having a bad night with a loss in Idaho and Maine. Biden after seeing those states was dishearted but hoped his close second to Kamala Harris could save his campaign but in the late hours after Brown passed Biden in Mississippi, Biden knew the race was over for him. Biden had always been boosted by good performances in the south but the fourth place in Mississippi meant he was losing some of the African-American votes which could cost him states like Maryland and Arkansas.

Biden does have over three hundred which will give him lots of leverage, especially in contested convection. If Biden uses his cards right, it's very likely that Biden will be in the cabinet if he wants to be in the public eye. Biden was endorsing any candidate tonight but praised Klobuchar and John Hickenlooper saying both would make excellent nominees in the general election. Biden also said he would fundraise for the nominee and would endorse whoever is nominated.

Biden was one of the few candidates to have a bad night, most other candidates were able to find their victories except Cory Booker and Beto O'Rourke. O'Rourke was able to pick up some delegates but he didn't win any state or come close in many races. O'Rourke has been focusing on growing his efforts in heavy latino states like Arizona, Utah, and Florida. Booker came in second in Mississippi and in fourth in Missouri. Booker and O'Rourke pledged to continue to the convection.


Official Democratic Ohio Primary on March 10th, 2020
160 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 55.9% (102)
Joe Biden: 20.1% (38)
Amy Klobuchar: 14.6 (20)
Beto O'Rourke: 4.5
Kamala Harris: 1.3
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.1
Elizabeth Warren: 0.9
John Hickenlooper: 0.8
Tulsi Gabbard: 0.5
Cory Booker: 0.3%

Official Democratic Missouri Caucus on March 10th, 2020
84 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 31.4% (34)
Amy Klobuchar: 21.9% (29)
Beto O'Rourke: 15.3% (15)
Cory Booker: 11.5% (5)
Joe Biden: 11.4% (1)
Kamala Harris: 5.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1.7%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 0.5%
John Hickenlooper: 0.1%

Official Democratic Michigan Primary on March 10th, 2020
147 Delegates
Amy Klobuchar: 29.1% (56)
Sherrod Brown: 28.8% (50)
Joe Biden: 14.7% (22)
Cory Booker: 11.4% (10)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 6.9% (9)
Beto O'Rourke: 4.0%
Kamala Harris: 2.5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.2%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.1%
John Hickenlooper: 0.4%

Official Democratic Northern Marianna Caucus on March 10th, 2020
11 Delegates
Tulsi Gabbard: 34.3% (7)
Beto O'Rourke: 32.1% (3)
Joe Biden: 25.8% (1)
Kamala Harris: 4.9%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.5%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.4%
Cory Booker: 0.0%
Elizabeth Warren: 0.0%
Sherrod Brown: 0.0%
John Hickenlooper: 0.0%

Official Democratic Mississippi Primary on March 10th, 2020
41 Delegates
Kamala Harris: 18.2% (16)
Cory Booker: 18.1% (11)
Sherrod Brown: 14.6% (6)
Joe Biden: 14.2% (5)
Beto O'Rourke: 14.1% (2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 10.5% (1)
Elizabeth Warren: 7.6%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 6.3%
John Hickenlooper: 4.2%

Official Democratic Maine Primary on March 10th, 2020
30 Delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand: 17.3% (9)
Elizabeth Warren: 15.5% (7)
Tulsi Gabbard: 15.3% (6)
John Hickenlooper: 15.2% (6)
Joe Biden: 13.1% (2)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.0%
Sherrod Brown: 5.4%
Kamala Harris: 5.2%
Amy Klobuchar: 3.3%
Cory Booker: 2.1%

Official Democratic Idaho Caucus on March 10th, 2020
27 Delegates
John Hickenlooper: 15.1% (9)
Joe Biden: 15.0% (6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 14.9% (5)
Kamala Harris: 14.3% (4)
Elizabeth Warren: 11.6% (2)
Sherrod Brown: 10.9% (1)
Amy Klobuchar: 6.2%
Beto O'Rourke: 4.5%
Cory Booker: 4.1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 3.4%


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Trump Trounces Weld
March 10th, 2020

CBS- While the Democrats look more and more likely to be subjected to a contested convention, the Republicans look more likely to renominate Donald Trump on the first ballot. Trump has drawn ever closer to the 1,236 delegates needed and will most likely secure the nomination if he continues to in ninety percent of the delegates as he has done so far. If Trump doesn't win the nomination in seven days, he most likely will expand his delegate lead over his challenger with multiple winners take all contest including bigger states like Florida and Ohio.

Even with Bill Weld's almost certain failed attempt to steal the nomination, he has proved to be a strong challenger winning two states and adding the District of Colombia in his column tonight. Weld has made it clear that Trump will have trouble winning independent voters in the general election and that could benefit the campaign of Howard Schultz who has silently been gaining ballot access across the nation and growing his campaign.

It has been rumored that Schultz is considering several prominent figures in the political arena for the vice-presidential choice. Schultz rumored choices include former Congressman John Delaney, Governor Larry Hogan, Former Governor Bill Weld, Former Governor John Hickenlooper, and Admiral William McRaven. Both Weld and Hickenlooper are both stilling running for president and haven't signaled that they are even open to the vice-presidential slot on the ticket.


Official Republican Michigan Primary on March 10th, 2020
59 Delegates
Donald Trump: 69.8% (38)
Bill Weld: 30.2% (21)

Official Republican Mississippi Primary on March 10th, 2020
40 Delegates
Donald Trump: 91.6% (40)
Bill Weld: 8.4%

Official Republican Idaho Caucus on March 10th, 2020
32 Delegates
Donald Trump: 81.1% (31)
Bill Weld: 18.9% (1)

Official Republican Hawaii Caucus on March 10th, 2020
19 Delegates
Donald Trump: 74.2% (14)
Bill Weld: 25.8% (5)

Official Republican Virgin Island Caucus on March 10th, 2020
9 Delegates
Donald Trump: 51.5% (5)
Bill Weld: 48.5% (4)

Official Republican Guam Caucus on March 10th, 2020
9 Delegates
Donald Trump: 59.3% (6)
Bill Weld: 40.7% (3)

Official Republican Washington D.C. Caucus on March 10th, 2020
19 Delegates
Bill Weld: 54.8% (12)
Donald Trump: 45.2% (7)

Official Republican Wyoming Caucus on March 10th, 2020
12 Delegates
Donald Trump: 87.6% (11)
Bill Weld: 12.4% (1)


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Tom Vilsack is Out, Iowa Senate Field is Crowded
March 11th, 2020

Iowa Starting Line- Former Governor Tom Vilsack ran a short campaign for Senate and had made the race in Iowa closer with Senator Joni Ernst. Vilsack was the wide frontrunner for the primary and was close behind Ernst. In the final poll, before Vilsack ended his campaign, he was polling even with Ernst but Sabato Crystal Ball still ranked the race as likely Republican. Still, Vilsack ended his campaign for personal reasons and medical reasons.

Now, without Vilsack in the race, the Iowa Democrats are scrambling for a good candidate. Already, the Democrats have gotten a new frontrunner, congresswoman Cindy Axne. Axne was heavily recruited into the race by the Democratic Senatorial Committee. Senator Chuck Schumer is hoping Axne can replicate the performance of Jacky Rosen, the freshman Democrat, who beat Senator Dean Heller in 2018.

Axne most likely won't be the only Democrat ready to challenge Ernst in the general election. Axne will probably face J.D. Scholten, the baseball player that almost took down Steve King, Rob Sand, the newly elected treasurer, and a few state senators and state representatives.


Des Moines Register Poll of Iowa Senate
Joni Ernst: 48.9%
Cindy Axne: 44.2%
Undecided: 6.9%

Des Moines Register Poll of Democrat Iowa Senate Primary
Cindy Axne: 16.7%
J.D. Scholten: 14.5%
Rob Sand: 14.3%
Rita Hart: 11.5%
Rob Hogg: 5.9%
Liz Mathias: 5.4%
Undecided: 21.7%


Democrats Delegate Count
1,919/4,051
Kamala Harris: 339
Joe Biden: 323
Sherrod Brown: 287
Beto O'Rourke: 264
Amy Klobuchar: 204
Cory Booker: 186
Julian Castro: 142
Eric Swalwell: 94
Elizabeth Warren: 90
Jeff Merkley: 80
John Hickenlooper: 79
Kristen Gillibrand: 78
Tulsi Gabbard: 65
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
1,029/2,472
Donald Trump: 898
Bill Weld: 176
Ann Coulter: 5


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: Catalunya on February 26, 2019, 06:01:11 am
Democrats need to rally behind Kamala if they want to avoid a contested convention.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on February 26, 2019, 05:18:40 pm
I made up the electoral map so far for the primaries:

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Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on March 01, 2019, 05:58:59 pm
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Gabbard and Warren Form Pact
March 12th, 2020

Boston Herald- Before the Super Tuesday primary, Senator Michael Bennet and Former Governor John Hickenlooper formed a 'Colorado Pact'. It stated whoever lost Colorado out of the two favorite sons would drop out and endorse the other candidate since they had similar messages and were taking from the same voters. Now, a similar Pact is being formed before what is being called 'Super Tuesday III'. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Tulsi Gabbard have agreed that whoever has the stronger campaign by the end of March then they will be endorsed by the other candidate.

What a strong campaign means is unclear but it probably means delegates, polling, and fundraising. Warren and Gabbard both have similar views on most issues and have been trying to win over Sander 2016 voters and anti-establishment voters. Warren has done a much better job of winning over the progressive voters that went for Sanders but Gabbard has built a strong base of anti-establishment voters.

Gabbard does look like she may have a good day on Super Tuesday III since she looks likey to win in landslides in Hawaii and Alaska and has been pulling close with Warren in Washington. Still, Warren has a delegate lead over Gabbard that doesn't look like it can be Trumped.



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FiveThirtyEight 2020 Guberational and General Election Prediction
March 13th, 2020

FiveThirtyEight- the election may be months away but the campaigns at local levels are just starting up and getting fierce. FiveThirtyEight is ready to update our predictions for both the gubernatorial and general election and will update every week up to the day of the election.

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22 D (-1)-28 R (+1)

Competive Races
Montana (Lean R)
Unknown (R) vs Unknown (D)

The race in Montana will change daramticly by the time of election day. The primary has been proven very competitive in both parties and has no clear frontrunner at this point. Still, At this point, the race is looking to be flipped to the Republicans with all their candidates being strong candidates in the pretty red state. Republicans almost flipped the state in 2016 with Steve Bullock barely pulling out a win but with the state to likely go to the president and there is no incumbent to win over some voters.

In the Democratic party, the primary is in a basically three-way tie between the Litneut Governor, Mike Conney, Former State Representative Kathleen Williams and the daughter of a former Representative, Whitney Williams. K. Williams won an upset in the primary for the only congressional district in 2018 and nearly upset the Republican Representative, Greg Gianforatine. Cooney is the establishment favorite and has been pouring money into the state. W. Wilson has been winning over the few progressives in the state and could be a liability in the general election but she has an advantage in the ever-far left party.

The Republican, on the other hand, is a tossup between three candidates again and all who have won statewide. Tim Cox, the Attorney General, was the first to announce his campaign but he wasn't alone for long with the Sectary of State jumping in the race soon after. Cox and the Secretary of State, Corey Stapleton, are both close behind the frontrunner and Auditor, Matt Rosendale who lost the election for Senate against Jon Tester. All have experience winning statewide which has allowed them to have the advantage in the general election but all could change quickly.


West Virginia (Lean R)
Governor Jim Justice (R) vs Unknown (D)

Jim Justice has had a tough primary fight and might not even make out of the primary. Justice was a former Democrat who gained national attention when he announced he was changing his party registration at a President Trump rally. For a short period, his favorabilities were a bit boosted from Republicans but his favorbilties didn't hold. At this point, Justice has just sixty percent of West Virginian Republicans and the rest of West Virginia held him at thirty-nine to forty-one percent favorable. Justice is still running in a primary against a former West Virginia Delegate and Representative David McKinley who has brought the race much closer than comfort.

If Justice can pull off a victory then he has another challenge in the general election against either of his potential opponents. Former Presidential candidate and Former State Senator Richard Ojeda and Former Sectary of State Natalie Tennant are both running for the nomination and are in a close fight. Ojeda launched his campaign soon after his failed gambit for president and was running against Tennant who was pushed into the race by the DGA. The chairman of the Democratic Gubernatorial Committee Phil Murphy was reportedly outraged by Ojeda's entrance since Tennant had a fairly easy path to the nomination without him in the race.

Both Ojeda and Tennant will make worthy opponents to Justice but the race may become much more Republican if anyone wins the primary other than Justice.


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(268 D)-(217 R)-(0 I)-(53 Tossup)

The Democrats are heavily favored to take back the White House by election day and our latest report is giving Democrats a sixty percent chance to win, President Trump has thirty-eight percent chance and Howard Schultz has a two percent chance to win. Trump has been severely weekend by his primary opponent who has done much better than expected and has shown his weakness in the northeast. Bill Weld's presidential run may have helped give the Democrats the advantage in Maine and New Hampshire where he was able to show the divide in the Republican party.

The Democrats have hurt their chances at winning with a divided nomination and with the election still being unknown. Democrats still can have much more hurt if they go into contested convection which is almost guaranteed at this point if it remains this contest. At this point, no candidate has a path to victory and will have to fight it out with party insiders in Wisconsin for their convection. The strongest candidates in the field are Amy Klobuchar, Sherrod Brown, Beto O'Rourke and John Hickenlooper and if any of them win the nomination then the map could grow much bluer (or red for atlas). The other candidates specifically Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Tulsi Gabbard could hurt the chances at winning in the general election because their far-left, close to socialist views.

The third candidate in the race, Howard Schultz has gained momentum over the last few weeks as the parties primaries have become more competitive and more centrist candidates have been pushed out. Schultz has yet to gain big name endorsements as many moderate Republicans are backing Weld and waiting for his suspension to endorse Schult's campaign while many Democrats are trying to fall in line which has always been a trouble for their party. Schultz main base of voters is the suburban Republicans who left the party after Trump was nominated, think of Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin voters plus Republican Clinton supporters. Schultz has a big opportunity and could even win a few electoral votes especially in Maine and Nebraska where he has been second and close thirds in both districts that are close. Schultz is also polling second in Utah with the backing McMullin who almost ran himself.





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John Hickenlooper Attacks Pro-Choice Extermist
March 16th, 2020

The Hill- Former Governor John Hickenlooper in a speech in Arizona attacked Senators in the presidential race for voting against a bill to make killing a baby after it was born alive after a botched abortion illegal. Hickenlooper is aiming for a good performance in Arizona and says if he doesn't win then he may drop out of the race. Hickenlooper has said he is hopeful and knows he can win in Arizona since he has strong Hispanic support that has led him to victory in Idaho and Colorado.

Hickenlooper has received the endorsement of a few high profile Democrats in the state including from former Gubernational candidate David Garcia. Hickenlooper is in a close fight with Beto O'Rourke who has also made a base out of Hispanic support and Kamala Harris who has her state bordering Arizona and won the two states surrounding Arizona. Harris and O'Rourke have both been trying to hedge their bets in other areas other than Arizona which could benefit Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper has been second and third in polls of Arizona but hopes for a late boost to push him over the top.

Hickenlooper in his rally called out Democrats support of 'inficidile' and saying, "The Republicans for years have been calling us murders. I think those Senators like Amy Klobuchar proved them right last year." and he went on later in his rally to say, "The American is like many within the Democratic party, we are sickened by are representatives supporting murdering living things. Truly, if the Republicans play the issue of abortion then they could win."

Hickenlooper has had a centrist past but this is the first attacks lobbied against what he called 'extremist' in his own party. The DNC chair has stated that he hoped the primary wouldn't get nasty to protect the nominee and hopes "John stops because he will be the one giving Republicans the win in November."



CNN Poll of National General Election
Sample Size: 1,034
Generic Democrat: 41.2%
Donald Trump: 36.4%
Howard Schultz: 12.3%
Generic Libertarian: 1.0%
Undecided: 9.1%

Gallup Poll of West Virginia Gubertarional Election
Sample Size: 194
Richard Ojeda: 48.6%
Jim Justice: 48.1%
Undecided: 3.3%

New York Times Live Poll of IA-01
Sample Size: 500
Abby Finkenauer: 47.9%
Ashley Hinson: 46.7%
Undecided: 5.4%

RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 17.5% (+0.9)
Kamala Harris: 14.7% (+0.6)
Sherrod Brown: 10.6% (+5.6)
Amy Klobuchar: 9.5% (+0.7)
Kristen Gillibrand: 9.4% (+1.8 )
Cory Booker: 9.2% (+0.5)
Elizabeth Warren: 8.9% (+0.1)
John Hickenlooper: 8.2%(+4.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 7.1% (+1.0)
Undecided: 10.2% (-4.1)


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on March 01, 2019, 09:41:52 pm
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Super Tuesday III: Its Going Be a Contested Convection
Booker and Hickenlooper Suspend Bids
March 17th, 2020

Politico- Once again, more Democratic contest have not made the results any clearer. the former Representative from Texas and 2018 rockstar candidate that almost took out Ted Cruz, Beto O'Rourke, came out on top once again with impressive wins in Arizona and Florida. O'Rourke was once again able to prove his strength with Hispanic voters and the energy around his campaign that even allowed him a surprisingly good performance in Utah. The good performance allowed O'Rourke to take the second spot in delegates and got much closer to the current delegate frontrunner, Kamala Harris.

Harris also was able to have a good performance but the second place in Florida might have ruined her night but she did hold off a surge for Kirsten Gillibrand in the state. Harris retained her title as the frontrunner of delegates again which has held for all of March. Harris is still far away from the needed amount of delegates which is over 2,200 delegates which means she is over one thousand delegates away.

Still, Harris is the closest to the needed amount of delegates with three candidates in particular much further behind. Kirsten Gillibrand, Tulsi Gabbard, and Elizabeth Warren all did reasonably well with Tulsi Gabbard having a great night but they are almost certain, not able to win the nomination on the first with not enough delegates remaining. Even winning all delegates remaining, all three couldn't win the nomination but that is just considering everyone else dropping out which will not happen.

Some candidates see the writing on the wall, knowing that the convection will almost certainly be contested leading to division in the general election. That was one of the reasons both Cory Booker and John Hickenlooper gave as they suspended their campaigns. Hickenlooper ran as a centrist and won two states but bad results in the neighboring state of Utah and in the state of Arizona bassically forced Hickenlooper to suspend as he fell far behind every other challenger in delegates. Booker remained in the middle of the delegate pack but little states looked likely to support Booker execpt New Jersey and Arkansas and both couldn't save his campaign or even come soon enough to save the campaign.


Former Representative Beto O'Rourke (D-TX): (145)
1st:
Arizona, Florida

2nd:

3rd:
Utah, Hawaii

Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): (129)
1st:
Utah

2nd:
Florida, Arizona

3rd:
Washington, Alaska

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): (103)
1st:

2nd:
Ilinios

3rd:
Florida

Represenative Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): (86)
1st:
Alaska, Hawaii

2nd:
Washington

3rd:

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): (80)
1st:
Illinois

2nd:

3rd:

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): (53)
1st:
Washington

2nd:
Alaska, Hawaii

3rd:

Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH): (45)
1st:

2nd:

3rd:
Illinios

Former Governor John Hickenlooper: (43)
1st:

2nd:
Utah

3rd:
Arizona

Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ): (41)
1st:

2nd:

3rd:


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Trump Wins Nomination
Weld Suspends Campaign
March 17th, 2020

The Hill- President Trump has officialy secured the delegates to win the nomination. Trump was able to put away his primary challenge from Former Governor Bill Weld who had been able to win almost twenty percent of the delegates. Weld called Trump early in the night knowing there was no way he would hold Trump under the needed delegates and conceded. The call was similar to that of Hillary Clinton's call in 2016 according to a high level Trump aide and he said there will be no love lost.

Weld did win Utah and all forty delegates since he reached sixty percent of the vote which was his fourth win. Weld had already won Vermont, Maine and Washington D.C. but what hurt Weld was his inabilty to appeall to southern conservative who handed hundreds of delegates to Trump has he crushed Weld's challenge. Weld has been able to weaken the president and show the weakeast areas for the president, specifically Independts which powered the late Trump surge in 2016.

Trump had a large victory rally where he had Ronna McDaniels and mutiple other state Republican chairpeople inculding Florida, Ohio and Califronia. Trump claimed victory and was boosting of his performanc, "I didn't even try, he was bassically begging voters to vote for him. I am actually try in the general election and we will win by an even bigger margin than four years ago, you can take that to the bank."

Trump does have a lot to celebrate but he really didn't try then he allowed over two hundred hostile delegates to go to his convection which could cause major problems. Weld will be bringing two undred plus delegates and Ann Coulter will be bringing five delegates meaning Trump will have to fend off from a hostile crowd that his both on President Trump's right and left. If those two hundred delegates ruin the convection then Trump may have created a huge problem for him in the primary.


Official Republican Florida Primary on March 17th, 2020
99 Delegates
Donald Trump: 86.7% (99)
Bill Weld: 13.3%

Official Republican Illinios Primary on March 17th, 2020
69 Delegates
Donald Trump: 78.2% (67)
Bill Weld: 21.8% (2)

Official Republican Missouri Primary on March 17th, 2020
52 Delegates
Donald Trump: 91.5% (52)
Bill Weld: 8.5%

Official Republican North Carolina Primary on March 17th, 2020
72 Delegates
Donald Trump: 80.6% (68)
Bill Weld: 19.4% (4)

Official Republican Northern Marines Caucus on March 17th, 2020
9 Delegates
Donald Trump: 61.3% (6)
Bill Weld: 38.7% (3)


Official Republican Ohio Primary on March 17th, 2020
66 Delegates
Donald Trump: 82.7% (66)
Bill Weld: 13.3%

Official Republican Arizona Primary on March 17th, 2020
58 Delegates
Donald Trump: 76.5% (54)
Bill Weld: 23.5% (4)

Official Republican American Somoa Primary on March 17th, 2020
9 Delegates
Donald Trump: 54.7% (5)
Bill Weld: 45.3% (4)

Official Republican Utah Primary on March 17th, 2020
40 Delegates
Bill Weld: 60.2% (40)
Donald Trump: 39.8%



Democrats Delegate Count
2,644/4,051
Kamala Harris: 468
Beto O'Rourke: 409
Sherrod Brown: 332
Joe Biden: 323
Amy Klobuchar: 284
Cory Booker: 227
Kristen Gillibrand: 181
Tulsi Gabbard: 151
Elizabeth Warren: 143
Julian Castro: 142
John Hickenlooper: 122
Eric Swalwell: 94
Jeff Merkley: 80
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
1,553/2,472
Donald Trump: 1,315
Bill Weld: 233
Ann Coulter: 5

New York Times Live Poll of NE-02 Presidential Election
Donald Trump: 35.2%
Howard Schultz: 32.9%
Generic Democrat: 25.1%
Undecided: 6.8%

MSNBC Poll of North Carolina Senate Election
Anthony Foxx: 45.6%
Thom Tillis: 44.9%
Undecided: 9.5%

Universty of Utah Poll of Utah Guberntioral Election
Spencer Cox: 69.8%
Jim Matheson: 21.0%
Undecided: 9.2%

DCCC Poll of NC-09 Congressional Race
Dan McCready: 50.1%
Dan Bishop: 40.6%
Jeff Scott: 0.3%
Undecided: 9.0%

DCCC Poll of NC-02 Congressional Race
George Holding: 42.3%
Scott Cooper: 40.6%
Undecided:17.1%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on March 03, 2019, 10:30:22 am
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Justin Amash Launches Insugent Libertarian Presidential Bid
March 22nd, 2020

New York Post- With President Trump almost guaranteed renomination with the latest primary pushing his only competitor left, Bill Weld, out of the race. Weld has yet to endorse President Trump and has said he will not be endorsing Trump but will endorse either the Libertarian candidate or Howard Schultz. Multiple serious Libertarians have started to run and have aimed for the nomination including two former Representative but some wanted to wait till the former Libertarian turned Republican primary challenger drop out to launch their bids.

One of those waiting till Weld suspended his campaign was Representative Justin Amash. Amash had been building a campaign operation and been fueling speculation of a possible bid for months but has said he wouldn't run unless Weld suspended his campaign. Amash launched his bid on March 21st in a video put out on twitter and has a speech in Washington D.C. on the twenty-fifth to officially launch his bid.

Weld is the best known of the field and has made a name for himself as a maverick within his own party-bucking leadership often especially when it has to do with issues such as criminal justice and marijuana. This has gained him praise from the media but many within his party especially some high profile leadership have shown their disgust with Amash and his followers in the Congress like Thomas Massie of Kentucky.

Weld still may have a hard time winning the nomination since all delegates choose at the convection and many hard-core Libertarians do not want to nominate another former Republican. With so many former Republicans running in the field like Former Representative Joe Walsh and Joe Campbell may allow the most popular Libertarian in the race, Larry Sharpe, to succeed. Sharpe has a large following within the party and could surprise some pundits who believe the most likely winners will be Amash, Campbel, and Walsh.



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Chances of A Contested Convection
March 27th, 2020

FiveThirtyEight- After all the March primaries were finished in grand fashion on Super Tuesday III, Politico reported that it would almost certainly be contested convection. We decided to look at the likeliness of all the candidates winning on the ballots and almost all have to win almost all of the remaining delegates. A representative from the Chari of the DNC, Tom Perez, has stated the Democrats are prepared for contested convection but Perez will try to force candidates out before the candidates so they can be unified at the convection.

Now let's take a look at the numbers of how many delegates the candidates each need to win:


Chances of Candidate Winning on First Ballot
Delegates Remaining: 1,407
Delegates Needed: 2,025.5
Kamala Harris: 110.7%
Beto O'Rourke: 114.9%
Sherrod Brown: 120.4%
Amy Klobuchar: 123.8%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 131.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 133.2%
Elizabeth Warren: 133.8%

This chart means that the convection will automatically be contested even if every candidate drops out except one which is very unlikely no matter how hard Perez tries to push candidates out of the race. Most candidates will be aiming to win every last delegate to make the second ballot easier on them but once no candidate wins the needed amount then the candidates will make a free for all for all uncommitted delegates which would be for those who already dropped out like Eric Swalwell and Joe Biden who both carry large amounts of delegates.

What could help candidates with those uncommitted delegates who will vote on the second ballot is the endorsement of the candidate they were pledged to. Already, Swalwell endorsed Harris but some other candidates like Hickenlooper and Booker are waiting till the convection to announce endorsements which could make them have a greater effect on the delegate's mindset.



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Ro Khanna Annouces Exploratory Commitee
March 31st, 2020

Huffington Post- Represenative Ro Khanna endorsed Senator Bernie Sanders early on in the contest. Khanna had been an active supporter of Sanders and served as Co-Chair of his campaign. When Sanders ended his campaign, Khanna announced he would run as a green party candidate since he believed the party would move too far to the right. Still, Khanna announced he wouldn't run unless Elizabeth Warren loses the nomination. Warren still is running and has not lost but it is very unlikely that she will win and is impossible for her to win on the first ballot.

Khanna mentioned in his press release launching his exploratory committee Warren's run for president. Khanna stated, "I will end my enduver on the spot if Elizabeth Warren wins the nomination but I must launch my bid now so I can make a serious effort to make the country take a left-wing swing." and Khanna also stated the unlikeliness of Warren getting nominated. Khanna continued in his statement to say, "Most likely we won't win but the goal of this campaign is changing the way people think."

Khanna has already received the endorsement from former nominee Green nominee, Jill Stein, who earlier endorsed her former vice-presidential choice. Stein stated, "I continued to support Baraka but I can't support his bid for president, I don't believe he will be taken as a serious candidate." and Khanna earned the endorsement of former State Senator and one of the other Sander's former Co-Chair, Nina Turner.



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 20.8% (+3.3)
Kamala Harris: 18.8% (+4.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 12.1% (+2.6)
Sherrod Brown: 10.9% (+0.3)
Elizabeth Warren: 10.0% (+1.1)
Kristen Gillibrand: 9.9% (+0.5)
Tulsi Gabbard: 8.6% (+1.5)
Undecided: 12.1% (+3.9)

Fox News Poll of General Election Nationaly
Generic Democrat: 37.7%
Donald Trump: 31.5%
Howard Schultz: 17.6%
Generic Libertarian: 2.4%
Generic Green: 0.9%
Undecided: 9.9%

New York Times Live Poll of OH-07
Larry Obhof: 52.6%
Ken Harbaugh: 44.7%
Undecided: 2.7%

Morining Consult Poll of Arizona Senate
Mark Kelly: 49.6%
Martha McSally: 49.1%
Undecided: 1.3%

NBC Poll of Colorado Senate
Cary Kennedy: 46.7%
Cory Gardner: 44.2%
Undecided: 9.1%

Houston Gazette Poll of Texas Senate
John Coryn: 49.7%
Joaquin Castro: 46.2%
Undecided: 4.1%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on March 03, 2019, 06:06:33 pm
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Is Winning Congress Out of Reach For Republicans
April 2nd, 2020

New York Times- The latest polls show Democrats winning up to two-hundred and thirty-five seats and at the minimum, two-hundred twenty. Now, the election is far away and Democrats don't even have a clear nominee but do Republicans have a chance to take back the Senate. After the brutal beating that Republicans took in the 2018 midterms and then losing the North Carolina 9th district in 2019 has given a very big pillow for the Democrats for them to lose a few seats. Still, Democrats might not even lose districts overall, in some races where they lost in 2018 have started to sway towards Democrats.

In the latest few polls by the New York Times, multiple races that Democrats that lost in 2018 are moving to the Democrats in 2020. In New York's 27th District where the incumbent, Chris Collins, was indicted and won by a little over one percent in 2018. Collins is now losing the race by two and three points to his opponent, Nate McMurray. In Georgia 7th district, Carolyn Bourdeaux is leading in her district by five to six percent in the race she lost by less than one thousand votes in 2018. In Texas's 23rd district, Will Hurd is losing to his opponent, Liz Wahl.

Still, Republicans have started to try and win some areas that Democrats won just two years earlier. Republicans are hoping to flip seats in Iowa, Oklahoma, New Jersey and New Mexico.  Republicans hope to win many of those districts with women candidates since that proved so successful for Democrats in 2018.  Republicans can pick up seats and look likely to win some seats but it is unlikely that they will win over the house.



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It's Warren-Gabbard; Gabbard Suspends Campaign and is named VP
April 7th, 2020

Fox News-Represenative Tulsi Gabbard has suspended her campaign and has been named the vice-presidential choice of Elizabeth Warren. Gabbard's campaign had been gaining steam and recently won Alaska and Hawaii and bypassed Warren in delegates but all wasn't bright from the campaign. Since the begging of the campaign, Gabbard had struggled with fundraising and had not turned around her polls even while many of her competitors were dropping out of the race. Early in March, both Gabbard and Warren agreed to a Pact where the candidate doing worse would suspend their campaign and endorse the opponent, it was not known till today that Warren was planning on putting Gabbard on the ticket.

If nominated or even elected then this would be the first female president, first female vice-president and first all-women ticket. Already, Warren discusses the historical significance in the video realized announcing the ticket. Warren in the video said, "We are breaking new ground with this all-women ticket and our opponents may say American is not ready. Well, we will make them ready for strong women in the White House." and Gabbard stated, "I am proud to be on team Warren and join the team as we blaze a new path for women across this country."

Already, Republican research firms were making fun of Warren/Gabbard ticket for Warren's Native American heritage claims. The RNC stated, "American is ready for an all-woman ticket but they aren't and never will be ready for an insane, socialist ticket." Warren's campaign responded to the criticism on Twitter by stating, "It seemed America was ready for an insane ticket four years ago when they elected your candidate."

Never has announcing a vice-presidential choice before the convection been a very wise idea for a candidate but it could be different since it is certain that it will be contested convection. Four years earlier, Ted Cruz announced his VP choice as Carly Fiorina and by the end of the month, the ticket was over. In 1976, Ronald Reagan chooses a moderate senator from Pennsylvania and caused an uproar from his own supporters which killed his bid.


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Gillibrand Scores Win in New York, Warren wins Wyoming, Brown Wins Wisconsin
April 19th, 2020

CBS- Senator Kirsten Gillibrand almost doubled her delegate amount in just one night with an austhonting victory in her home state of New York where she won over one-hundred and fifty delegates. Gillibrand didn't perform very well in the other states but she knew she wouldn't win any of those states and focused all her efforts on her home state so she could pick up as many delegates as possible since, at this point, it is very much a delegate fight to the convection. At her victory rally in downtown New York City, Gillibrand claimed victory and went into attacks on her opponent, Elizabeth Warren. Gillibrand stated that New York was the ticket to the convection she needed to win and the momentum that will get her wins in the northeast next week.

On her attacks on Warren, Gillibrand stated that Warren wanted the DNC to crown her as the nominee and said naming Tulsi Gabbard as VP so early in the race was premature and proved that her bid was dying. Gillibrand also claimed that Warren's bid was "dying from the start. All she has done in this race is force contested convection."

Warren has been riding on momentum since announcing Gabbard as VP even though she had some attacks from Gillibrand and other Democrats. Other Democrats include Tom Perez who had one of his conversation leaked from the Washington Post with Perez stating, "What was Warren thinking? That is will miraculously save her campaign and save our chances at winning? This is Bull S***, this will do nothing but make us more divided." Still, Warren and Gabbard have been riding high passing multiple opponents in the polls and allowing her to have a strong second place in New York and a win in Wyoming which was a toss up a few days ago.

Warren and Gillibrand weren't the only candidates to win a state, Senator Sherrod Brown also won in Wisconsin. Brown and Senator Amy Klobuchar were 0.2% away from each other in the final result of the state that was a tossup to lean Brown in the last week. Klobuchar hoped her coming from a neighboring state would help but she still came up short in the final results. Klobuchar stated that she will go to the convection no matter what which was a phrase multiple other candidates repeated like Senator Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke who both didn't win states either.


Official Democrat New York Primary on April 19th, 2020
291 Delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand: 45.7% (151)
Elizabeth Warren: 23.2% (75)
Kamala Harris: 14.9% (45)
Sherrod Brown: 9.1% (20)
Beto O'Rourke: 4.8%
Amy Klobuchar: 2.3%

Official Democrat Wyoming Primary on April 19th, 2020
18 Delegates
Elizabeth Warren: 24.3% (5)
Beto O'Rourke: 19.1% (4)
Sherrod Brown: 19.0% (4)
Amy Klobuchar: 17.4% (3)
Kamala Harris: 10.9% (2)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 9.3%

Official Democrat Wisconsin Primary on April 19th, 2020
96 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 40.2% (50)
Amy Klobuchar: 40.0% (46)
Beto O'Rourke: 8.8%
Elizabeth Warren: 6.5%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 3.4%
Kamala Harris: 1.1%


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Delaney Joins Schultz on the Ticket; Annouces He's On All 50 States Ballots
April 23rd, 2020

ABC- Just a week after Senator Elizabeth Warren announced her vice-presidential choice as Representative Tulsi Gabbard, another candidate is naming his vice-presidential choice. Howard Schultz in a rally in Baltimore, Maryland that his running mate would be the former presidential candidate and former Representative John Delaney. Delaney represented a district just outside of Baltimore and had a moderate record in Congress which is one of the main reason why Schultz chooses Delaney as his vice-president.

Delaney had done the best in Iowa where he overperformed and won three delegates to the convection. Delaney ended his bid after a bad performance in South Carolina. While running for president, Delaney ran as a pragmatic, bipartisan candidate and had hoped he would stand out in that way but he was running against multiple other pragmatic candidates like Amy Klobuchar, John Hickenlooper, and Joe Biden.

Schultz in his rally also announced that he had fifty state access to ballots but in the process found the problems with ballot access stating, "Sectary of States have made it harder and harder across this county to run as an Independent. That is why so few people want to take the risk then they go to one of the two major parties and to win they have to pander to the extremist in the parties." and Schultz went on to say, "John and I are committed to fixing our democracy that is so broken that it has allowed corruption to run rampant in its current system."



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Unlikely that Amash or Sharpe will win on First Ballot
April 26th, 2020

Reason- A little over a month ago, Representative Justin Amash launched his bid for the Libertarian nomination for president further divining the party ahead of the convection. Amash has stated he has already raised two million dollars and has already been interviewed on all major news networks. Amash hopes to make the Libertarian Party mainstream with a mainstream voice which he said he hoped Gary Johnson would be in 2016.

Still, Amash is not the only one in the race or even the only fundraising machine in the race either. Amash is running against two other former Representatives, a former television committor, a former gubertarional nominee and a few low polling candidates that include a billionaire executive. Amash is running neck and neck with Larry Sharpe who was the runner up for vice-president in 2016 and the nominee for governor of New York in 2018. Sharpe has raised over two million but over a much bigger period of time but has a large following among Libertarians.

Sharpe and Amash have a pretty large lead over the closet opponents but both Amash and Sharpe don't look likely to win on the first ballot which they need fifty percent to win. Amash and Sharpe are both far away from the needed amount and will probably take a few ballots till they win the nomination. This was a poll of one hundred delegates that will be attending the national convention.


Reason Poll of National Libertarian Delegates
Justin Amash: 21%
Larry Sharpe: 19%
Tom Campbell: 11%
Joe Walsh: 10%
John McAfee: 8%
Sam Sedar: 7%
Adam Kokesh: 7%
Arvin Vohar: 2%
Undecided: 14%


MSNBC Poll of Maine Senate
Susan Collins: 48.7%
Betsy Sweet: 40.6%
Undecided: 10.7%

Fox News Poll of NY-27th Congressional Race
Nate McMurray: 50.6%
Chris Collins: 46.0%
Undecided: 3.4%

FiveThirtyEight Average Poll of General Election
Generic Democrat: 36.5%
Donald Trump: 32.0%
Howard Schultz: 20.7%
Generic Libertarian: 3.1%
Generic Green: 1.2%
Undecided: 6.5%

CNN Poll of Ohio's Presidential Election
Donald Trump: 41.2%
Generic Demorat: 40.9%
Howard Schultz: 9.6%
Undecided: 8.3%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: Cold War Liberal on March 03, 2019, 08:44:50 pm
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THROW IT IN THE T R A S H

(Good timeline tho)


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on March 07, 2019, 06:48:49 pm
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Gillibrand Shows Streagnth in Northeast
April 28th, 2020

AP- Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has surged into third place with delegates and has won three more states giving her a big boost into May. Gillibrand has claimed victory and has stated she has been aiming to win the nomination. Gillibrand in her rally in Concord, stated, "We are almost at five hundred delegates and we will be fighting for every single last delegate till we win this nomination in Wisconsin!" Tonight, Gillibrand did have a lot to celebrate. She was able to win in three crucial states and come in second in two others which allowed her to win over one hundred and fifty delegates. Now, the momentum is on the side of Gillibrand. Recently, Warren has been riding high with an early announced vice-president being Representative Tulsi Gabbard but Warren was only able to win one primary and has in dead last in delegates even though she has inched closer to taking over fifth place from Amy Klobuchar.

Senator Sherrod Brown was the other victor of the night with a stunning victory in Pennsylvania where he was able to win with an almost whole sweep of the east half of the state. The good news for Brown didn't end with a strong win in Pennsylvania coming after a win in Wisconsin, Brown also has a very good map coming up in May. Brown has strong poll numbers in Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky and Nebraska. Brown may even pull off an upset in Arkansas where Senator Kamala Harris has been trying to turn around her numbers.

Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar didn't have great nights but all three have very good fundraising and have pledged to go till the convection. Klobuchar and O'Rourke have been said to already have started to vet Vice-Presidential Candidates.


Official Democrat Connecitucut Primary on April 28th, 2020
71 Delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand: 41.9% (41)
Elizabeth Warren: 33.7% (21)
Sherrod Brown: 12.4% (9)
Beto O'Rourke: 5.4%
Amy Klobuchar: 4.6%
Kamala Harris: 2.0%

Official Democrat Rhode Island Primary on April 28th, 2020
33 Delegates
Elizabeth Warren: 35.1% (14)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 34.2% (11)
Beto O'Rourke: 15.6% (7)
Sherrod Brown: 7.7% (1)
Amy Klobuchar: 3.8%
Kamala Harris: 3.6%

Official Democrat Pennyslavnia Primary on April 28th, 2020
209 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 25.3% (94)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 21.5% (55)
Amy Klobuchar: 21.2% (45)
Beto O'Rourke: 13.8% (13)
Kamala Harris: 10.2% (2)
Elizabeth Warren: 8.0%

Official Democrat Maryland Primary on April 28th, 2020
119 Delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand: 35.6% (47)
Kamala Harris: 32.8% (39)
Sherrod Brown: 16.9% (25)
Beto O'Rourke: 8.3% (7)
Amy Klobuchar: 4.2% (1)
Elizabeth Warren: 2.2%

Official Democrat Deleware Primary on April 28th, 2020
32 Delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand: 23.9% (12)
Kamala Harris: 21.7% (10)
Elizabeth Warren: 18.3% (5)
Amy Klobuchar: 14.8% (3)
Beto O'Rourke: 11.2% (1)
Sherrod Brown: 10.1% (1)


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Amy Klobuchar Annouces Short List For VP
May 1st, 2020

CNN- Senator Amy Klobuchar has had a rough few weeks with a loss in two midwest states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Klobuchar has started to fall behind her midwest opponent, Senator Sherrod Brown. Brown has been sweeping up midwest states and looks likely to pick up a few more in May with Klobuchar falling into second in multiple states and even fourth in Kentucky. Klobuchar is hoping to turn around the bad luck.

With an early announcement, Senator Elizabeth Warren had a surge in the polls with Representative Tulsi Gabbard in the Vice-Presidential spot. Klobuchar has taken note of Warren's surge that helped her win good performances in New York and a win in Wyoming. Klobuchar and her campaign announced a list of potential vice-president and announced that Klobuchar would announce her vice-president by May 25th.

Most of Klobuchar's list is western progressive democrats and in her list announcement, Klobuchar talked about what she was looking at with a vice-president. The email sent to the press with the list stated, "Klobuchar has started to vet vice-presidential choices and is looking at progressive democratic heroes that can work with Amy to unite the United States from sea to shining sea."

Klobuchar list includes:
-Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT)
-Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA)
-Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR)
-Representative Eric Swalwell (D-CA)
-Representative Ayanna Pressley (D-MA)
-Representative Chris Pappas (D-NH)



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Perez Warns Democratic Candidates to Unite
May 4th, 2020

DNC-With the primary almost over, it is clear that at the Democratic Convention will be contested convection. That means the Democratic National Committee will have to take money away from the general election fight with president Donald Trump to continue the primaries and have a bigger amount of room for the convection showdown.

If the candidates wish for a united front to beat Trump and his bigoted agenda then they must have the fewest candidates as possible at the convection so the DNC doesn't have to spend more money then they have to at the Convection to make it successful. That means candidates that have no clear path to the nomination will have to suspend before the convection. Candidates and staff must figure out if they have the path to the nomination.



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Brown Wins Both West Virginia and Indiana; Brown Annouces Inslee as VP
May 12th, 2020

Politico- Three contest were held tonight, Guam, Indiana and West Virginia. In a near sweep, Senator Sherrod Brown won both West Virginia and Indiana that are both neigboring states to his homestate of Ohio. Brown has been gaining momutum after an impressive win in Pennsylvania and then winning the endorsment of Former Senator Joe Donnely of Indiana helped propeled him to impressive victories over his closet competor, Senator Amy Klobuchar. Klobuchar had shortend Brown's lead in the final days with an endorsment from former Senator Evan Bayh but with Donnelly's endorsment of Brown, there was little to prevent a victory.

Brown also delt anouther blow to Klobuchar by annoucing his vice-presidential choice, one of the few that were on Klobuchar's short list. The vice-presidential choice was Governor Jay Inslee who ran his campaign as a climate change warrior and mainly ran on that issue. Inslee has one delegate to the convection but his real help could come in Oregon in a week which is a neighbor to his homestate of Washington. The campaign believes that if Brown wins Oregon then Senator Warren is bassically down with no momtum into the convection unless she pulls off an upset and Brown also believes he would have delt a major blow to Kamala Harris who also is neigbors to Oregon.

Brown was riding high this evening and he had a lot to celebrate, dealing major blows to Klobuchar
and winnign ever states execpt Guam. Guam voted overwhemilying for Warren who had a landslide over her closets oppent, Beto O'Rourke, who was recorginzing his efforts to focus on Nebraska, New Mexico and winning over delegates.


Official West Virginia Democratic Primary on May 12th, 2020
37 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 62.5% (28)
Amy Klobuchar: 23.8% (9)
Beto O'Rourke: 7.0%
Elizabeth Warren: 4.3%
Kamala Harris: 1.4%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.1%

Official Indiana Democratic Primary on May 12th, 2020
92 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 34.3% (42)
Amy Klobuchar: 34.0% (41)
Elizabeth Warren: 16.7% (7)
Beto O'Rourke: 9.7% (2)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 4.1%
Kamala Harris: 1.2%

Official Guam Democratic Primary on May 12th, 2020
12 Delegates
Elizabeth Warren: 66.4% (10)
Beto O'Rourke: 22.8% (2)
Kamala Harris: 7.3%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.3%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.2%
Sherrod Brown: 1.0%



Democrats Delegate Count
3,654/4,051
Sherrod Brown: 606
Kamala Harris: 566
Kristen Gillibrand: 498
Beto O'Rourke: 445
Amy Klobuchar: 432
Joe Biden: 323
Elizabeth Warren: 280
Cory Booker: 227
Tulsi Gabbard: 151
Julian Castro: 142
John Hickenlooper: 122
Eric Swalwell: 94
Jeff Merkley: 80
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

CNBC Poll of IN-02 Congressional Race
Jackie Walorski: 48.7%
Pete Buttigieg: 48.0%
Undecided: 3.7%

New York Times Live Poll of CA-45 Congressional Race
Katie Porter: 49.5%
Don Sedwick: 48.9%
Undecided: 1.6%

Fox News Poll of Kentucky Senate Race
Mitch McConnel: 51.0%
Amy McGarth: 47.6%
Undecided: 1.4%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: UWS on March 08, 2019, 08:05:49 am
I think the DNC is definitely going to be brokered.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on March 10, 2019, 03:05:15 pm
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Senator Warren Annouces 500 Staff Layoffs
May 15th, 2020

NBC- Senator Elizabeth Warren has slowly lost her foothold in the race. Warren saved her campaign for a small amount of time with the announcement of Representative Tulsi Gabbard as vice-president which helped her win Wyoming but Warren's political machine is going down again. Warren has announced today that her campaign would be letting go around 500 staffers around the nation. Warren stated that "the campaign is restructuring so we have all operations ready to win in the Convection, once the convection is over every single one of the laid-off employees will be given their jobs back."

Some employees that NBC has talked to have stated they will continue to work on the campaign just with no pay till they win the convection. Two of the more than twenty of the staffers we talked to were very angered by the firings with one stating, "I was one of the main reason why Elizabeth Warren was even able to get five percent here [Iowa] and then she treats me like garbage. I will find a campaign that needs a qualified aide working for them."

Most of the laid-off staff are coming from areas that Warren did poorly in and receive little to no delegates, NBC has learned. This may mean that Warren's main goal is just to flip states that she won third and second in and expand delegate leads in the states where she won.



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Libertarian Party Realse List of Speakers for Convection
March 16th, 2020

LNC- With the convection under ten days away, the LNC or Libertarian National Convection is realizing its list of speakers for each day of the convection. The LNC has left blank areas for speeches from both the presidential and vice-presidential candidates who are yet to be known and will be known by the end of the second or third day of the convection.

May 22nd, 2020 Speakers:
-Chair Nicholas Sarwark of the Libertarian Party
-Mary Rutwark (Endorsing Sharpe)
-Debate Between 2020 Candidates: Justin Amash, Tom Campbell, John McAfee, Sam Sedar, Joe Walsh, Larry Sharpe, Arvin Vohra, and Adam Kokesh
-Ben Shapiro (Endorsing Amash)

May 23rd, 2020 Speakers:
-Vice-Chair Alex Merced of the Libertarian Party
-Austin Petersen (Endorsing Sharpe)
-Former Governor Gary Johnson
-Former Governor Bill Weld
-Former Chair Geoff Neale (Endorsing Kokesh)

May 24th, 2020 Speakers:
-Daryll Perry (Endorsing Kokesh)
-Patrick Bryne (Endorsing Campbell)
-Vice-Presidential Candidate

May 25th, 2020 Speakers:
-Patrick Bryne (Endorsing Amash)
-Jeffery Miron
-Former Representative Mark Sanford
-Presidential Candidate



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Klobuchar Wins Nebraska, Annouces Pappas as VEEP; Harris Wins Arkansas, Brown Wins Kentucky, Warren Wins Oregon
May 19th, 2020

New York Times- Once again, a week full of packed political news ends with more stunning events on the road to the White House. With the final primaries of May and four of the last primaries in the primary process, the candidates are fighting for every last delegate. Now that it is guaranteed that the Democrats will be a brokered convention, some campaigns like Elizabeth Warren and Beto O'Rourke have turned their focus away from the primaries and on to winning delegates that are claimed by a suspended campaign on the first ballot. Other candidates like Amy Klobuchar and Sherrod Brown have double down on the primary effort to win as many delegates as possible before the convention then win over other delegates.

Brown efforts in the primary have paid off and continue to pay off this week. Brown won almost all the primaries last week and have won Kentucky this week with a very close showing in Oregon that almost knocked Warren out of the number one spot. Governor Jay Inslee was the biggest surrogate in Oregon for Brown and have proved how powerful Inslee's spot is on the ticket.

Brown's efforts weren't the only ones that paid off, Klobuchar also pulled off an upset win in Nebraska where many Brown would win. Klobuchar has proved to be strong in the midwest with wins in Iowa and Michigan and is looking to win in the Dakotas to pick up some extra delegates before the convection. Klobuchar also has focused some efforts on the northeast at the convection for extra delegates. That was one area where she found modest support but hopes with a northeast VP can win over some support. That was one of the main reasons she stated in a press release why she chose freshman Representative Chris Pappas as the VP.

Pappas is the first gay member of the New Hampshire congressional delegation and endorsed Pete Buttigieg early in the primary till he dropped out when Pappas then waited till Biden dropped out to endorse Klobuchar. Pappas was announced as a "young and energetic new congressmen ready to make a change in the executive office." Even high-level staffers didn't know who the pick was till Pappas walked on stage and the banners changed to say Amy and Chris for 2020. Some top-level staffers believed the top three were Senator Jeff Merkley, Representative Eric Swalwell, and Pappas. Most staffers knew Merkley were out of the running when Oregon primary went by and some hoped it would be Swalwell since California and Swalwell have so many delegates.


Official Nerbraska Demcratic Caucus Results
30 Delegates
Amy Klobuchar: 33.7% (11)
Beto O'Rourke: 26.5% (9)
Sherrod Brown: 25.0% (8 )
Kirsten Gillibrand: 9.4% (2)
Elizabeth Warren: 3.3%
Kamala Harris: 2.1%

Official Kentucky Demcratic Primary Results
60 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 36.8% (27)
Kamala Harris: 22.3% (21)
Beto O'Rourke: 18.9% (8 )
Amy Klobuchar: 11.2% (3)
Elizabeth Warren: 10.7% (1)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 10.1%

Official Orgeon Demcratic Primary Results
74 Delegates
Elizabeth Warren: 29.1% (29)
Sherrod Brown: 28.5% (25)
Kamala Harris: 17.8% (15)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 13.9% (12)
Beto O'Rourke: 6.7% (3)
Amy Klobuchar: 2.0%

Official Arkansas Demcratic Primary Results
37 Delegates
Kamala Harris: 29.6% (17)
Beto O'Rourke: 20.4% (10)
Sherrod Brown: 15.3% (9)
Elizabeth Warren: 9.8% (1)
Amy Klobuchar: 7.5%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 7.4%


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Justin Amash Wins First Ballot, Not Nomination; Vohra Kicked Out of Race
May 22nd, 2020

Reason- The first ballot with a record number of 1,593 delegates voting had one of the closet results in Libertarian convection history on the first ballot. Congressman Justin Amash, the most outspoken Libertarian in the house, finished in first place just barely over Larry Sharpe. Amash beat Sharpe by just thirteen votes with both around twenty percent of the vote. Sharpe's main base of support is from Libertarian loyalist especially those angered by Gary Johnson's nomination in 2016. Many Sharpe supporters were hoping the party didn't nominate a former Republican.

Johnson supporters were mainly split between Amash and Tom Campbell, a former Representative from California. Some other Johnson supporters backed former Representative Joe Walsh and Larry Sharpe but much less than Amash and Campbell have received. Johnson has yet to back a candidate but his former vice-presidential candidate, Bill Weld, has signaled his support for Tom Campbell but also complimented Justin Amash. Johnson has said if the party can't decide by ballot five then he will endorse a candidate.

Amash and Sharpe are the frontrunners at this point for the nomination but Walsh, Campbell and John McAfee are close behind and all the potential of winning if there was a surprise. Three other candidates are much further behind and don't have much of a chance at the nomination. Arvin Vohra, Sam Sedar, and Adam Kokesh are all under ten percent. Kokesh was the only one of the three to achieve over one hundred delegates. Vohra was knocked out of the race since he was the last one which forces them to suspend their campaign.


Official Liberatrian First Ballot
1,593 Delegates
Justin Amash: 21.4% (342)
Larry Sharpe: 20.6% (329)
Tom Campbell: 14.8% (236)
John McAfee: 13.1% (209)
Joe Walsh: 10.9% (173)
Adam Kokesh: 9.8% (156)
Sam Sedar: 5.9% (95)
Arvin Vohra: 3.3% (53)


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Sharpe Leads Second and Third Ballot; Campbell gets Closer
May 23rd, 2020

The Hill- Larry Sharpe in the second and third ballot of the Libertarian convection has taken the lead over congressman Justin Amash. Sharpe beat Amash by three delegates in the second ballot and five delegates in the third and both candidates are around twenty-three percent in delegates when they need fifty percent. Amash and Sharpe got into a battle of words about Amash being a former Republican on the floor of the convection which energized Sharpe's supporters that hope they don't nominate a former Republican like Gary Johnson again.

Sharpe's rise in delegates also was helped by the suspension of Arvin Vohra and Sam Sedar. Vohra's delegates also went to Kokesh which helped him surge past former Representative Joe Walsh who suspended his campaign after the third ballot. Kokesh's surge with some help from Vohra delegates saved his campaign by just four votes. Kokesh is likely to have to suspend his campaign after the next ballot but he is using his voice in the race right now to push who the vice-president would be. Right now, Kokesh endorsed Kim Ruff who is also from Arizona and ran for office in Arizona in 2018 as Kokesh did. Kim Ruff isn't the only candidate running for vice-president. Joe Walsh is asking Amash and Tom Campbell for support for a potential vice-presidential bid if he runs. Walsh and Ruff are running against Judge Jim Gray who was VP in 2012 under Johnson and Travis Irvine. Gray is the frontrunner at this point but support from Kokesh has helped Ruff's chances.

Sam Sedar announced his support for Adam Kokesh and Joe Walsh announced his endorsement of Justin Amash. Sharpe was hoping for the endorsement of Sedar but he still earned some of his delegates even without the endorsement.


Official Liberatrian Second Ballot
1,593 Delegates
Larry Sharpe: 354 (22.2%)
Justin Amash: 351 (22.0%)
John McAfee: 259 (16.2%)
Tom Campbell: 241 (15.1%)
Adam Kokesh: 187 (11.7%)
Joe Walsh: 133 (8.3%)
Sam Sedar: 68 (4.2%)

Official Liberatrian Third Ballot
1,593 Delegates
Larry Sharpe: 368 (23.1%)
Justin Amash: 363 (22.7%)
Tom Campbell: 268 (16.8%)
John McAfee: 237 (14.8%)
Adam Kokesh: 179 (11.2%)
Joe Walsh: 175 (10.9%)


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Represenative Justin Amash Wins Libertarian Nomination
Amash Annouces Endorsement of Tom Campbell as Vice-President
May 24th, 2020

Politico- In a backroom deal with his chances of losing the nomination rising, Representative Justin Amash reportedly met with former Congressman Tom Campbell of California. Campbell had been in a strong third place only falling to fourth in the second ballot to John McAfee who quickly fell after. Campbell had a strong two hundred delegates firmly behind him and many came from his home state of California. Amash offered Campbell an endorsement for the vice-presidential nomination in exchange for Campbell's suspension and endorsement of Amash since it was almost certain he would have the same fate as Austin Petersen in 2016 where he had a strong base but ended up as runner up.

Amash was already expected to surge by mutiple Libertarian insiders including the Chairman, Nichlos Sarwark, who spoke with Politico and stated "yes, Amash got the endorsement of Joe Walsh so I expect a surge but I doubt that it will get him across the fifty percent. No matter what happens, Amash winning or not, the party is united and energized. That is the message coming out of the convection." Sarwark wasn't the only big name believing Amash was having a surge of support on the floor. The other frontrunner for the Libertarian nomination, Larry Sharpe and his campaign also believed the nomination chances were fading and also met with Tom Campbell to offer a similar deal.

Campbell deciled Sharpe's offer and Sharpe asked Campbell to remain in the race which he also denied since he accepted Amash's deal. Amash announced his endorsement and Campbell suspension just three hours ahead of the fourth ballot which caused a mass frenzy on the floor of the convection as Sharpe, Amash, John McAfee, and Adam Kokesh's campaigns all were fighting for every last delegate. Amash was able to come out ahead of the field receiving just over fifty percent with Kokesh, McAfee, and Sharpe all splitting the anti-former Republican vote.

Campbell survived the vice-presidential vote but almost lost to Jim Gray of Kentucky who was Gary Johnson's vice-presidential choice. Amash and Campbell are now in a five-way fight for the presidency. Amash is fighting for conservatives that don't want to see Trump's second term, libertarian votes that still need to be united and some centrist who don't want Howard Schultz who is running a Trump campaign style.


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Official Liberatrian Presidential Fourth Ballot
1,593 Delegates

Justin Amash: 801 (50.3%)
Larry Sharpe: 464 (29.1%)
Adam Kokesh: 164 (10.2%)
John McAfee: 154 (9.6%)
Tom Campbell: 7 (0.4%)

Official Libertarian Vice-Presidential First Ballot
1,593 Delegates
Tom Campbell: 823 (51.7%)
Jim Gray: 589 (37.0%)
Kim Ruff: 98 (6.1%)
Travis Irvine: 83 (5.2%)



Democrats Delegate Count
3,855/4,051
Sherrod Brown: 695
Kamala Harris: 619
Kristen Gillibrand: 512
Beto O'Rourke: 475
Amy Klobuchar: 446
Joe Biden: 323
Elizabeth Warren: 311
Cory Booker: 227
Tulsi Gabbard: 151
Julian Castro: 142
John Hickenlooper: 122
Eric Swalwell: 94
Jeff Merkley: 80
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Monmouth Poll of the General Election
Generic Democrat: 36.4%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 30.3%
Howard Schultz/John Delaney (I): 18.9%
Justin Amash/Tom Campbell (L): 5.4%
Generic Green: 1.2%
Undecided: 7.8%

Emerson College Poll of AR-02 Congressional Race
French Hill (R): 49.6%
Stephanie Flower (D): 44.3%
Undecided: 6.1%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: LoneStarDem on March 10, 2019, 04:42:07 pm
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Trump Crushes Weld in Highly Conservative South Carolina

Fox News- President Trump not only beat Weld in South Carolina, but he also crushed Weld in the highly conservative south. Weld got some momentum coming off his closer than an expected loss in New Hampshire and earned some southern endorsements like former Georgia Congressmen Bob Barr. Still, Weld could not keep up with Donald Trump who won more than eighty percent of the vote and all of the fifty delegates in the state putting Weld far back in the delegate count.

Trump earned not only a strong delegate lead but the primary victory helped reeginze the campaign and the President who stated at his rally tonight that, "the mainstream media wanted to act like a twenty point win killed my reelection campaign, what a bunch of losers. How about a sixty percent lead over some loser opponent." Trump's campaign also announced that it already raised over one hundred thousand dollars just tonight since the South Carolina primary was called. Trump was on stage with the Vice-President, Former UN Abbasdor Nikki Haley, and Governor Henry McMaster.

Weld still continued his insurgent campaign and told the one hundred supporters that he would continue his bid all away to the convection. Weld stated, "They may say we are down but that's what they said after Iowa. We proved them wrong a week ago, we will prove them wrong in three days in Nevada. Our message of unity is working and showing how Trump has failed this nation with his division."


Official Republican South Carolina Results on Febuary 22nd, 2020
50 Delegates
Donald Trump: 83.6% (50)
Bill Weld: 15.9%
Other: 0.5%


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Kamala Harris Wins Nevada, Holder Switches Endorsment to Harris
Febuary 22nd, 2020

MSNBC- In the Nevada caucus, Senator Kamala Harris of the next door state of California came in first place in yet another close contest. This is Harris's first victory and is giving her momentum going into South Carolina which she hopes will give her a second win with its heavy African American vote. Harris victory didn't end there for the night, Harris also got the endorsement of Former Attorney General Eric Holder. Earlier in the year, Holder endorsed Mayor Andrew Gillum but explained, "I don't see a path forward for Andrew. I believe he is the future leader this nation needs but I hope he takes this as a signal to get out of the race and not further split the African-American vote."

Two Texans also had victories in the Nevada caucus, Beto O'Rourke and Julian Castro landed in the second and third spot. O'Rourke and Castro both invested heavily in Nevada in the final days after both landings in dismal spots in Iowa. Both of those candidates had heavy appeal to Latinos which could help them in future contest like California, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico. O'Rourke claimed victory in his speech and said that only see him on Super Tuesday which could be a signal that he will be skipping the South Carolina primary which is highly competitive between Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker.

The other candidates who have states bordering Nevada as Harris did relatively well with Senator of Colorado Michael Bennet doing the best with a spot in the top five. The other two candidates, Jeff Merkley of Oregon and John Hickenlooper of Colorado, both earned delegates and both stated they would continue on in the race.

The field continued to shrink also, the Governor of Washington Jay Inslee left the race with twenty-two candidates left. Inslee promised that he would drop out if he had a bad showing in Nevada after a poor result in New Hampshire.


Official Democratic Nevada Caucus on Febuary 22nd, 2020
43 Delegates
Kamala Harris: 18.2% (14)
Beto O'Rourke: 14.3% (9)
Julian Castro: 14.1% (6)
Joe Biden: 9.6% (4)
Michael Bennet: 7.1% (3)
Eric Swalwell: 5.7% (2)
Steve Bullock: 5.3% (2)
Jeff Merkley: 4.9% (1)
John Hickenlooper: 4.7% (1)
Jay Inslee: 3.3% (1)
Bernie Sanders: 3.2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.0%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.4%
Stacey Abrams: 1.1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.0%
Cory Booker: 0.8%
Amy Klobuchar: 0.7%
Bill De Blasio: 0.4%
Andrew Gillum: 0.3%
John Delaney: 0.2%
Sherrod Brown: 0.2%
Terry McAullife: 0.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.0%


Democrats Delegate Count
131/4,051
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Beto O'Rourke: 16
Kamala Harris: 15
Joe Biden: 14
Elizabeth Warren: 9
Bernie Sanders: 8
Sherrod Brown: 7
John Hickenlooper: 7
Kristen Gillibrand: 6
Julian Castro: 6
Tulsi Gabbard: 5
Michael Bennet: 5
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Eric Swalwell: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Jeff Merkley: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
103/2,472
Donald Trump: 88
Bill Weld: 10
Ann Coulter: 5

I'm assuming Inslee will run for reelection as WA St Governor in 2020 ?


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: KaiserDave on March 10, 2019, 04:54:28 pm
Schultz at 18?
...how?


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: Catalunya on March 10, 2019, 07:35:31 pm
Yeah it's a great TL, but Schultz and Amash are polling far too high.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on March 10, 2019, 08:58:43 pm
Yeah it's a great TL, but Schultz and Amash are polling far too high.
Schultz at 18?
...how?
Yes, Schultz is a little high especially with his high unfavorability but with so many candidates in the Democratic race. it will be hard for unity once all those candidates suspend especially with more moderate candidates dropping out for more progressive candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris

I do disagree that Amash is polling high, if Johnson could poll at ten percent and end at three percent then Amash definitely can poll five percent since he is much less gafee friendly


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on March 12, 2019, 05:03:39 pm
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Final Group of Primaries Vote; Harris Lays Out Convection Plan
June 16th, 2020

New York Times- The final delegates have been given away before the almost certain brokered convection. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand won the night with the most delegates and two wins in New Jersey and Washington D.C. which helped her gain over one hundred delegates and push her into second place just behind Senator Sherrod Brown who retained a wide lead over the field even without winning any states in tonight's primary. Gillibrand has won over most of her support in the northeast and hopes to push out Warren in the first few ballots to win some of her delegates especially in New Hampshire and Massachusetts.

Gillibrand also announced her vice-presidential selection. Gillibrand surprised the rally attendees at her victory party in Newark, New Jersy and pundits with history breaking news. Gillibrand annouced that she would let the convection choose the vice-president for her. The other two candidates without vice-presidential candidates, Beto O'Rourke and Kamala Harris said similar things when asked but both left the door open to announce a VP at the convection or just before the convection. Brown choose Governor Jay Inslee as Vice-President, Elizabeth Warren chose Representative Tulsi Gabbard as Vice-President and Amy Klobuchar choose Representative Chris Pappas. Already multiple draft movements for candidates for vice-president started including Pete Buttigieg, Joe Manchin, and Gina Raimondo.

The only other candidates to win states were Warren, Klobuchar, and O'Rourke who all won at least fifty delegates leaving the frontrunner, Brown, and former frontrunner, Harris, far behind as the final delegates were counted. Harris hoped to put the bad news behind her as she fell into third place with realizing her plan for the convection. Harris hopes to flip heavily African-American delegation like all the southern delegations, Illinois and Virginia. Harris knows those aren't enough states to win the nomination but hopes the candidates losing those states are forced to drop out and help expand her base of support.


Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): (108)
1.
New Jersey, Washington D.C.

2.

3.

Former Representative Beto O'Rourke (D-TX): (82)
1.
New Mexico, Puerto Rico

2.

3.
Washington D.C., South Dakota

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (60)
1.
Montana

2.

3.
North Dakota, Puerto Rico, New Mexico

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): (50)
1.
North Dakota, South Dakota

2.
Montana

3.

Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): (40)
1.

2.
New Mexico, Puerto Rico, Washington D.C.

3.

Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH): (29)
1.

2.
North Dakota, South Dakota

3.
New Jersey, Montana



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Messam Launches Bid For Vice-President
June 25th, 2020

Miami Herald- The Mayor of Miramar, Wayne Messam, considered a run at the presidency but stepped aside when Former Mayor Andrew Gillum ran instead. Messam was one of the earliest supporters of Gillum and started considering a bid when Gillum first denied looking into the job. Messam officially declared he wouldn't run at Gillum's launch rally where he endorsed Gillum. Now, Messam is looking into the second top job. In an email to supporters, delegates and press, Messam announced he would be seeking the second top slot. Soon after, Gillum tweeted out his support of Messam and asked his delegates and supporters to support Messam at the convection.

Messam announcement came after three main candidates, Kamala Harris, Beto O'Rourke and Kirsten Gillibrand, all basically said they would let the convection decide their vice-president. Harris stated may the best person win in a statement after being asked about Messam by a reporter. Harris also stated that she's "happy that there will be not only a diverse ray of candidates for president at the convention but also for vice-president too"

Messam may not be the only candidate running without a top of the ticket endorsement. Governor Gina Raimondo has also been mentioned to be looking at the vice-presidential slot and she would have a lot of support from establishment democrats ran since her successful chairmanship at the DGA. Even without Raimondo, Messam already has fierce competition from Amy Klobuchar's backed Representative Chris Pappas, Elizabeth Warren backed Representative Tulsi Gabbard and Sherrod Brown backed Governor Jay Inslee.



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Final Fundraising Before Convection Realsed
July 3rd, 2020

CNBC- Ahead of the crucial brokered convection, all the candidates are realising fundraising numbers. The fundraising numbers give us a key look into the strongest and weakest candidates in the race. In the Democratic race, the strongest candidate looks like Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke. Harris and O'Rourke both raised over eighty million dollars and have around fifty dollars in the bank. Still, that numbers are far lower compared to the other candidates they will be running against in the general election. President Donald Trump has three hundred dollars in the cash on hands and Howard Schultz has over one hundred million.

While Schultz looks strong, it seems his supporters are not willing to give money which signals a lack of strength in their support for Schultz. Schultz does have a big bank to help him and will try to match other candidates who have strong small donor bases. A candidate with a small donor base army is Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump. Trump does have a massive fundraising haul but he should have had a much bigger haul, this just proves how much time and effort Trump had to put in the primary to put away Bill Weld who raised a little over ten million dollars and still won four primaries.

On the other hand, Warren raised much of her funds from small donors but she spent a lot in the process and still ended up in last and has little to spend at the convection. Warren will need money to pass some other candidates and fight Senator Kirsten Gillibrand for the northeast which Warren hopes to flip.


1. Donald Trump
Total Raised: 409.7 million
Self Investment: 10.6 million
Total Spent: 112.4 million
Cash on Hand: 307.9 million

2. Howard Schultz
Total Raised: 16.6 million
Self Investment: 156.2 million
Total Spent: 57.0 million
Cash On Hand: 116.4 million

3. Kamala Harris
Total Raised: 86.7 million
Self Investment: 4.0 million
Total Spent: 45.3 million
Cash on Hand: 45.4 million

4. Beto O'Rourke
Total Raised: 96.5 million
Self Investment: 0.0 million
Total Spent: 57.3 million
Cash on Hand: 39.2 million

5. Kirsten Gillibrand
Total Raised: 67.5 million
Self Investment: 0.5 million
Total Spent: 56.3 million
Cash on Hand: 11.7 million

6. Sherrod Brown
Total Raised: 50.4 million
Self Investment: 0.0 million
Total Spent: 46.6 million
Cash on Hand: 3.8 million

7. Justin Amash
Total Raised: 3.6 million
Self Investment: 0.0 million
Total Raised: 0.9 million
Cash on Hand: 2.5 million

8. Amy Klobuchar
Total Raised: 51.6 million
Self Investment: 0.0 million
Total Raised: 49.9 million
Cash on hand: 1.7 million

9. Ro Khanna
Total Raised: 0.9 million
Self Investment: 0.0 million
Total Raised: 1.1 million
Cash on Hand: -0.2 million

10. Elizabeth Warren
Total Raised: 72.9 million
Self Investment: 0.1 million
Total Spent: 73.5 million
Cash on Hand: -0.5 million


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DNC Realses List of Speakers
July 6th, 2020

DNC- With the Democratic party facing contested convection. The DNC will do everything in its power to make the convection go smoothly and allow the presidential nominee to be quickly found out. The DNC has met with all six remaining campaigns to discuss the speakers and surrogates forever campaign met together so all speakers would be fairly chosen and not unfairly titled towards one campaign. The below list is the finalized list of speakers who will be at the convection from July 13th to 17th.

July 13th: Diversty in America
-Chairmen Tom Perez of the DNC (D-MD)
-Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley (D-MA)
-Congresswoman Linda Sanchez (D-CA)
-Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)
-Kentucky Sectary of State Allison Grime (D-KY)
-Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)
-Former Attorney General Eric Holder (D-NY)
-Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)
-Former HUD Sectary Julian Castro (D-TX)
-Former State Representative Stacey Abrams (D-GA)

July 14th: Streangth in the Union
-DNC Vice-Chair and Congressman Keith Ellison (D-MN)
-Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
-Former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA)
-Congressman Chris Pappas (D-NH)
-Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
-Governor Tony Evers (D-WI)
-Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
-Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH)
-Governor Tim Walz (D-MN)
-Former First Lady Michelle Obama (D-IL)
-Former President Barack Obama (D-IL)

July 15th: Trust Science
-Former Congressman Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)
-Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
-Governor Michelle Lujan Graham (D-NM)
-Anthony Foxx (D-NJ)
-Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA)
-Former Mayor Andrew Gillum (D-FL)
-Former Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA)
-Former Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
-Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA)
-Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR)
-Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee

July 16th: Protecting America
-Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT)
-Mark Kelly (D-AZ)
-Former Representative Gabby Gifford (D-AZ)
-Former Vice-President Joe Biden (D-DE)
-Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)
-Congressman Jim Clyburn (D-SC)
-State Representative Stephanie Flowers (D-AR)
-Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)
-Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D-NY)
-Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
-Democratic Presidential Nominee




Democrats Delegate Count
4,051/4,051
Sherrod Brown: 724
Kristen Gillibrand: 620
Kamala Harris: 659
Beto O'Rourke: 557
Amy Klobuchar: 516
Elizabeth Warren: 371
Joe Biden: 323
Cory Booker: 227
Tulsi Gabbard: 151
Julian Castro: 142
John Hickenlooper: 122
Eric Swalwell: 94
Jeff Merkley: 80
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

MSNBC Poll of West Virginia Guberartional Election
Jim Justice (R): 44.5%
Richard Ojeda (D): 43.1%
Other: 5.6%
Undecided: 6.8%

Huffington Post Poll of Arizona Senate Election
Mark Kelly (D): 48.7%
Martha McSally (R): 46.2%
Adam Kokesh (L): 0.4%
Undecided: 4.7%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: LoneStarDem on March 16, 2019, 01:43:41 pm
I'm assuming Ellison won the 2018 contest for MN State AG like he did in real life ?


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on April 13, 2019, 06:41:10 pm
I can't keep the timeline going but I will do election results.

Candidates:
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R)
Beto O'Rourke/Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Howard Schultz/John Delaney (D)
Justin Amash/Tom Campbell (L)
Ro Khanna/Nina Turner (G)


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on April 13, 2019, 07:37:58 pm
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November 3rd, 2020 at 6:30pm
Election Night in America 2020

Chuck Todd: "It's 6:30pm on the east coast and the first polls of 2020 are closing. The final weeks have been very competitive after the convection where former Congressman Beto O'Rourke barely pulled off a win after announcing Senator Kirsten Gillibrand as his vice-presidential choice over Senator Kamala Harris and Senator Amy Klobuchar. President Donald Trump also had a rough first day in the convection after William Weld delegates walked out of the convection and fifty more delegates that were bound to Trump voted for other candidates including Nikki Haley, Matt Gaetz, Ron DeSantis, Joni Ernst and even one delegate to former Congressman Jim Renacci. After Donald Trump did secure the votes on the first ballot over the resistance, he was able to rebuild his convection and rebound a bit in the polls.

Trump and O'Rourke aren't the only candidates pouring their time into the campaigns. Howard Schultz has spent millions on the campaign and had a strong vice-presidential choice. Independents and a small amount of Democrats and Republicans supporting Schultz in the polls helped him get in the second and third debate and John Delaney into the vice-presidential debate. The other third parties, Libertarian and Green party both had serious candidates with both having sitting congressmen as their nominees but neither were able to make any of the debates even as Justin Amash, the Libertarian from Michigan was just points away from making the first debate.

Now let's look at the first results coming out of Kentucky and Indiana. Rachel, can you help show us the early results and call the first congressional races of the night."


Rachel Maddow: "We do have some early congressional races that we can call right now and we can show some of the congressional races that will likely be very close by the end of the night. In Kentucky, out of three seats reporting results, we can call two of those races for Republicans. Thomas Massie, the only sitting congressman to endorse Amash over Trump, won his seat even with some conservatives sitting out of the races in protest of the endorsement and Hal Rogers of Kentucky-5 has been reelected. The only Kentucky congressman with results coming in that can't be called is Andy Barr who barely survived reelection two years ago against Amy McGrath who is now running against Mitch McConnel in a very close race. In Indiana, four more Republicans have been reelected including Mike Pence's brother, Greg Pence who won his seat two years ago. One Democrat has been reelected in Indiana also and two seats are too close to call with one, IN-02 gaining national attention. In the race, Jackie Walorski, the current congresswoman and one of the few Republican women left was pitted against Mayor Pete Buttigieg who gained a national following from his presidential campaign which allowed him to pour millions into a congressional race. Buttigieg started to gain a lead in the final days but Walorski and the NRCC started negative ads in the final week which started to close the gap.

let's show the congressional map on the screen and the results of IN-02 so the viewers know the results right now. For the viewers, the tilt color on the congressional map means the race is too close to call and if it is red that means the current congressmember is a Republican and vice-a-versa for Democrats.


https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/

IN-02 Congressional Race Results (0.9%)
Too Close to Call
Jackie Walorski (R): 50.8%
Pete Buttigieg (D): 48.2%
Other: 1.0%

"Now, let's look at the presidential race. In both Indiana and Kentucky, President Trump is leading by a wide margin which always happens in these early results and is expected in these conservative states. These are no surprises but there is good news for Democrats as Amy McGrath is outperforming Beto O'Rourke by five percent in Kentucky so far which means that if O'Rourke even comes close to winning Kentucky then it's likely that McGrath is removing McConnel.

Kentucky Senate Race Results (1.3%)
Too Early to Call
Mitch McConnell (R): 57.8%
Amy McGarth (D): 42.2%

Kentucky Presidential Race Results (1.3%)
Too Early to Call
Donald Trump (R): 56.5%
Beto O'Rourke (D): 35.9
Howard Schultz (I): 4.6%
Justin Amash (L): 2.3%
Ro Khanna (G): 0.3%

Indana Presidential Race Results (1.5%)
Too Early to Call
Donald Trump (R): 59.8%
Beto O'Rourke (D): 29.5%
Howard Schultz (I): 8.2%
Ro Khanna (G): 1.3%
Justin Amash (L): 1.2%


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: jakobisgood on April 13, 2019, 09:01:36 pm
This is really good, keep this going.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on April 13, 2019, 09:06:37 pm
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November 3rd, 2020 7:00pm
Election Night in America 2020

Chuck Todd: "Welcome back to Election Night and it's 7:00 pm with the first real results coming in and the first calls in the presidential race. In Kentucky, Donald Trump has won Kentucky's eight electoral votes. In Indiana, Donald Trump has won Indiana's eleven electoral votes. In South Carolina, Donald Trump has won South Carolina's nine electoral votes putting Donald Trump's total at twenty-nine electoral votes. Beto O'Rourke has picked up three electoral votes with a win in Vermont. Virginia, Florida, and Georgia all are too early to call states. Brian, what do all these results mean and can you update us on the Senate and congressional races.

()
President Donald Trump/ Vice-President Mike Pence (R): 29
Fmr. Congressman Beto O'Rourke/ Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 3

Virginia Presidential Race Results (0.5%)
Too Early to Call
Donald Trump (R): 45.3%
Beto O'Rourke (D): 44.7%
Howard Schultz (I): 8.0%
Justin Amash (L): 1.7%
Ro Khanna (G): 0.3%

South Carolina Presidential Race Result (1.0%)
Republican Hold
Donald Trump (R): 54.3%
Beto O'Rourke (D): 42.1%
Howard Schultz (I): 3.3%
Ro Khanna (G): 0.3%
Justin Amash (L): 0.0%

Brian Williams: These results are the same we had four years ago and four years before that. These results don't mean much.

Rachel Maddow: I disagree, Brian, we already know the suburban areas are close especially those outside cities that were strong Mitt Romney areas and help lead to the Democratic Congress. This also says Howard Schultz won't be winning the White House unless he turns around the results in the suburban areas which he tried to build a base out of since they are centrist areas.

Brian Williams: Those are both good points but I still think it is way to early and are similar to what we have seen in Republican years and Democratic years. In the Congressional race, at this time we can tell that at least thirty-two Republicans will be returning to the Congress along with twenty-four Democrats. Seventeen other races are too close to call including the race mentioned earlier in the evening with Pete Buttigieg running against Jackie Walroski. Buttigieg is leading currently and may cause an upset by the end of the night and he won't be the only one. In Georgia, the freshman Democrat, Lucy McBeth is running against Karen Handel who she barely beat two years ago. Handel is leading by six points right now but the race has only gotten close since the results started to come in. Another instering race is in South Carolina where the blue dog, Joe Cunningham, looks like he may be able to win reelection even though many Democrats wrote off the race weeks ago. Cunningham was running against another very Pro-Trump Republican which helped him win over suburban areas.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/5KWME6
Republicans:32 (+0,-0)-Democrats: 24 (+0,-0)
Tossup: 17 (10 R, 7 D)

The congressional Races aren't the only interesting races tonight. Right now, we have results coming in from four key Senate races, Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina, and Kentucky. All those Senate races have straight white males as incumbents and all their opponents are either a minority or a woman expect Virginia. Kentucky, Mitch McConnell looks likely to hold his seat but is still in a tough race with Amy McGrath who lost a close congressional race four years ago. In South Carolina, Lindsey Graham is running against Jamie Harrison who was a former South Carolina Democrat Chair and had surge turnout among African-Americans. Graham looks like he could win the seat but the network is far from confident in projecting the race just yet. In Virginia, former Representative and veteran Scott Taylor is running against Senator Mark Warner. In Georgia, Stacey Abrams is leading the current senator even as Donald Trump leads Beto O'Rourke.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on April 14, 2019, 08:13:57 am
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November 3rd, 2020 7:30pm
Election Night in America 2020

Chuck Todd: I'm Chuck Todd and welcome back to MSNBC's coverage of the 2020 election. Right now, the race couldn't be any closer with the suburban areas that handed Democrats victory two years ago coming in very tight. The congressional races look very similar with seventeen seats too close to call. In the Senate, we have no calls to make still with four Senate races being very close including majority leader Mitch McConnel's seat. We do have some more calls to make at this hour. In West Virginia, Donald Trump has cruised to victory adding five more electoral votes to his column. In Ohio and North Carolina, we can say that those races are way too close to call at this time.

()
President Donald Trump/Vice-President Mike Pence: 33
Fmr. Congressman Beto O'Rourke/Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: 3

We do have a call in a senate race that had gotten closer in the final days. In Virginia, Democrats have held on and Mark Warner has been given six more years in the Senate, Warner defeated former Representative Scott Taylor who lost his seat two years ago. Taylor had many scandals throughout his congressional campaign and many national Republicans withdrew effort from the race early in the campaign focusing more on the presidential race but the last poll out of the race showed Taylor down only by four points. This race reminds me of the Ohio senate race two years ago where national Republicans thought the candidate was doomed like Jim Renacci but came back on election night and almost won the race. Also, in West Virginia, Shelly Capito Moore has been reelected easily over her Democratic challenger. Chris, can you update us on the congressional races and what this all means.

()
Democrats: 36 (+0, -0)-Republicans: 32 (+0,-0)
Tossup: 4 (4 R,0 D)

Virginia Senate Race Results (7.9%)
Warner Reelected
Mark Warner (D): 53.7%
Scott Taylor (R): 46.3%

Chris Matthews: This is a very big deal right now, Democrats in both Senate and presidential races are keeping the south close. If I were at the RNC victory party, I would be getting nervous even for Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham who still have leads but could lose any second. Beto O'Rourke may have only three electoral votes but I could see by eight o'clock that he gains the lead and flips some of these too close to call states especially Virginia and North Carolina. Now let's look at the congressional map. Since 7:00 we have had a few big calls. Susan Brooks (IN-R), Andy Barr (KY-R), Stephaine Murphy (FL-D), Brian Mast (FL-R), Ted Yoho (FL-R), Vern Buchanan (FL-R) and Joe Cunningham (D-SC) have all been reelected and we have had the first seat flip tonight in Georgia, Carolyn Bourdeaux has won the seat she lost just two years ago. To those viewers watching at home, the lean, light color means that the seat was flipped. With the new races coming in, Tim Ryan, the former presidential candidate, holds onto his seat. Some Democrats are pushing Ryan to challenge Senator Portman in two years especially since he gained national attention. Other than Ryan, we have been able to call all Ohio's congressional races except three with Anthony Gonzalez, Steve Chabot and Dave Joyce all leading but still in too close to call races. In West Virginia, the state is sending back all three Republicans to the Congress and in North Carolina, there are two too close to seats including North Carolina-09 where Dan McCready won a special election after a large amount of voter fraud was discovered.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/DKPrErV
Republicans: 56 (+0,-1)-Democrats: 35 (+1. -0)
Tossup: 14 (8 R, 6 D)

Chuck Todd: We have looked at the presidential, senate and congressional races but we also have a few calls in the gubernatorial races. In Vermont, Phil Scott has won two more years. In Indiana, Mike Pence's former Lintuent Governor Eric Holcomb has won four more years as Governor. In North Carolina and in West Virginia the races are too close to call and Democrats are leading in both.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on April 14, 2019, 10:08:43 am
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November 3rd, 2020 8:00 pm
Election Night in America 2020

Chuck Todd: What you see on your screen right now is Beto O'Rourke's victory party. The staff just started letting media in about ten minutes ago and now they are letting the massive crowd start to swarm the stage. Our MSNBC reporter in the rally was talking to staff and they sound optimistic and with it being 8:00, he might have something optimistic after the calls. Before we start the calls, we can call two Senate races for Republicans. Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell have won six more years beating Amy McGrath and Jamie Harrison. Now to the 8:00 calls in the presidential race. In Maine, the race is too close to call with a three-way tie between Donald Trump, Beto O'Rourke and Howard Schultz. In New Hampshire, the race is too close to call. In Massachusetts, Beto O'Rourke wins the eleven electoral votes. In Connecticut, Beto O'Rourke wins the states seven electoral votes. In Rhode Island, Beto O'Rourke wins the states four electoral votes. In New Jersey, Beto O'Rourke has won the states eleven electoral votes. In Deleware, Beto O'Rourke has won the states three electoral votes. In Maryland. Beto O'Rourke has won the states ten electoral votes. In Pennsylvania, the race is too close to call. In Tennesee, Donald Trump has won the eleven electoral votes. In Mississippi, Donald Trump has won the states six electoral votes. In Alabama, Donald Trump has won the states nine electoral votes. In Oklahoma, Donald Trump has won the states seven electoral votes. In Missouri, Donald Trump has won the states ten electoral votes. In Illinois, Beto O'Rourke has won the states twenty electoral votes. Now, we have another very big call that was too close to call till now. Beto O'Rourke has won Virginia, a state that Donald Trump hoped to flip especially after the scandals plaguing the top three Democrats in the state.

()
Fmr. Congressman Beto O'Rourke/ Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: 85
President Donald Trump/ Vice-President Mike Pence: 76

New Hampshire Presidential Race Results (1.7%)
Too Close to Call
Beto O'Rourke (D): 34.4%
Donald Trump (R): 32.1%
Howard Schultz (I): 23.5%
Justin Amash (L): 7.8%
Ro Khanna (G): 2.2%

Intersting result in the presidential election as a large number of states remain too close to call. Now onto the calls for Senate elections. Susan Collins has won reelection over Betsy Sweet who tried to sink Collins favorability rankings but was unsuccessful even with her massive million dollar machine. In Massachusetts, Ed Markley wins six more years. In Rhode Island, the Democrat gains six more years. In New Hampshire, its a close race between Jeanne Shaheen and Governor Chris Sununu. In Deleware, Chris Coons wins six more years. In Illinois, Dick Durbin who barely survived a primary challenge has won six more years. In Tennesee, Diane Black has won the seat currently held by retiring Lamar Alexander. Jim Inhofe has won six more years and in Mississippi, Cindy Hyde-Smith wins her first six-year term. In Alabama, the race is too close to call but Martha Roby is leading in the race.

()
Republicans: 39 (+0,-0)-Democrats: 40 (+0, -0)
Tossup: 4 (2 R, 2 D)

Now to Rachel Maddow who will update you on the gubernatorial and congressional races.

Rachel Maddow: Before we talk about the 8:00 poll closing let's look at earlier races. In Ohio, Dave Joyce and Anthony Gonzalez both held onto their seats. Abigail Spanberger has won reelection in a very closely watched race. George Holding has been reelected in North Carolina while Dan McCready lost his seat giving Republicans their first pick up. Donna Shala has been reelected while her Republican colleagues, Ross Spano, Mario Diaz-Balart, and Michael Walz have all been reelected also. The biggest news right now that Pete Buttigieg has flipped a Republican-held seat in Indiana. Right now, we have fourteen Democrat-held seats that are too close to call and many of those are freshmen Democrats who now have much stronger opponents than two years ago. Nine Republican seats are too close to call mainly by people who barely survived 2018. Right now, Republicans are winning the house 130 to 114 but that was expected. In the Gubertarional elections, we have an upset in West Virginia where Richard Ojeda has beaten the sitting Governor who switched from Democrat to Republican early in his term. In New Hampshire and Missouri, there is a close race. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper has won his seat for four more years.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/3p02aql
Republicans: 130 (+1, -2)-Democrats: 114 (+2,-1)
Tossup: 23 (9 R, 14 D)

Chis Matthews: It looks as if that Republicans who broke for Beto O'Rourke still were supporting Republicans down ballot except for some key races like Roy Cooper and Richard Ojeda. If Former Republicans who support O'Rourke, if they voted Democrat down ballot then Susan Collins wouldn't have six more years, Dan McCready would have two more years. It looks like the NRCC and NRSC did a good job in getting Republicans in the line down ballot.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: jakobisgood on April 14, 2019, 01:20:40 pm
Damn, very cool. It felt good to see that McCready loss ;)


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on April 14, 2019, 02:04:22 pm
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November 3rd, 2020 9:00 pm
Election Night in America 2020

Chuck Todd: Mitch McConnell is just finishing up his victory rally and he has told his crowd that they are sure they will be taking the Senate tonight. Other Republican senators who have talked to MSNBC reporters have also sounded confident and Democrats are getting nervous especially as Susan Collins landslide over Betsy Sweet. Now, it is 9:00 pm and we have more results. Beto O'Rourke won New York, his vice-presidential choices home state. Beto O'Rourke has won Washington D.C. Beto O'Rourke has won in Colorado which was a swing state in the past five cycles but looks pretty strong Democratic now and Beto O'Rourke has won New Mexico. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has been able to win Nebraska except for one congressional district that is in a three way split. Donald Trump has won North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Lousiana. The only surprise right now was the win in Colorado so easy for Beto O'Rourke where many of our political team on MSNBC said it would be much later call. We also have another surprise right now, Beto O'Rourke's home state of Texas is too close to call which could be a massive upset over the Republicans who spent little money and effort in the state. Donald Trump shouldn't lose all hope though. The blue wall of Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania all are still too close to call along with Florida that is drifting towards Trump...Actually, we can call Pennsylvania for Beto O'Rourke taking a key state from Donald Trump that was his just four years ago.

()
Fmr. Congressman Beto O'Rourke/ Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: 151
President Donald Trump/Vice-President Mike Pence: 109

Right now, we can make some calls in the senate race including the first flipped seat. Doug Jones of Alabama has lost and Martha Roby has won Alabama's Senate seat. In Arizona, Senator Martha McSally is in a close fight with Mark Kelly and the race is too close to call In Colorado, Cory Gardner is in the tightest and one of the most closets watched races of tonight against Cary Kennedy, a former Treasure of Colorado. In New Mexico, Ben Ray Lujan replaces retiring Tom Udall. Jacob LaTurner, the Treasurer of Kansas has just won the Senate seat and now is set to be the youngest senator. In Texas, the race is too close to call between Joaquin Castro and John Cornyn. Republicans have kept their seats in North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming. Bill Cassidy has won six more years and so has Tina Smith of Minnesota, Smith may help O'Rourke win in Minnesota especially with the lead by Smith now. Cory Booker will return to the Senate. In Michigan, Gary Peters is in a tight race against John James, a marine veteran and an African-American Republican.

()
Republicans: 45 (+1, -0)-Democrats: 44 (+0, -1)
Tossup: 7 (5 R, 2 D)

Chris, can you update us on the congressional races.

Chris Matthews: Lot of exciting news coming from election night but we have more exciting news from congressional around the country. Kendra Horn from Oklahoma has lost reelection, Chip Roy has turned around his numbers and will win a second term. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Steve Chabot, Susan Wild, Brian Fitzpatrick, Mike Bost, and Ann Wagner have all won reelection. Currently, with those updates and with the latest poll closings, Republicans are leading 168 to 152. Both parties got two pickups each and have a large number of seats in the too close to call column.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/xV6J8qV
Republicans: 168 (+2, -2)-Democrats: 152 (+2, -2)
Tossups: 29 (11 R, 18 D)

Chuck Todd: Sorry to interrupt but we have two breaking calls in Georgia. The Senate election will be going to a runoff between Stacey Abrams and David Perdue. In the presidential race, Donald Trump will win the state of Georgia allowing his campaign to take a sigh of relief after a long stressful night of watching the new tossup state. Rachel, with Georgia going to Trump, do you believe Beto O'Rourke still has a chance in Florida and North Carolina or will he have to rely on the blue wall to deliver him victory?

Rachel Maddow: Beto O'Rourke has a lot of pathways and I never thought Beto would win Georgia but what really matters is Beto O'Rourke being able to flip Pennsylvania and bringing Texas to a tossup.

Brian Williams: I disagree, Rachel, once one south state falls they will all fall to Donald Trump. Trump is a few votes behind in North Carolina and is leading in Florida. I think it will be like Donald Trump winning Ohio in 2016, the states around it will fall in line so after. Truly, Beto O'Rourke needs to hope a win in Pennsylvania helps win Ohio, Michigan and the blue wall.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on April 15, 2019, 06:51:33 pm
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November 3rd, 2020 10:00pm
Election Night in America 2020

Chuck Todd: What you are seeing now is the Trump victory rally and right now it is dead silent. Both Beto O'Rourke and Donald Trump are nervously awaiting results and either party could win but Donald Trump's path to the presidency was just hurt by losing Minnesota and Michigan. Those were the last two calls we have been able to make and has given Beto O'Rourke a large lead over the president even as the Senate and Congress remain up for grabs tonight. Now that it is 9:00 pm, we have four more states closing their polls. In Iowa, the race is too close to call. In Montana, Donald Trump has won the states three electoral votes. In Nevada, the race is too close to call. In Utah, Donald Trump is the winner with large independent votes for Howard Schultz propelling him to second. We also have four more calls of previously too close to call states, in New Hampshire, Beto O'Rourke has won four electoral votes. In Maine, Beto O'Rourke wins the state and two congressional districts. In Florida, the biggest of the three and one of the most closely watched races, Donald Trump has won. In Texas, Beto O'Rourke's home state has gone to the president giving him the lead.

()
President Donald Trump/Vice-President Mike Pence: 201
Fmr. Congressman Beto O'Rourke/ Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: 185

Now, the Senate has three more seats that have polls closing. In Iowa, the race is too close to call between Cindy Axne and Senator Joni Ernst. In Montana, they have given their Republican senator six more years. We also have some calls in previously too close to call states, in Texas, John Cornyn has beaten Joaquin Castro and in North Carolina, Democrats have flipped the seat currently held by Thom Tillis who came within one point of Anthony Foxx.

()
Republican: 47 (+1, -1)-Democrats: 45 (+1, -1)
Tossup: 5 (3 R, 2 D)
Runoffs: 1 (1 R, 0 D)

Chris Matthews: I just did the math and it looks like there will is no path to reelection for Donald Trump even if he wins all the tossups right now.  He will still have to flip either Oregon or Washington which is very unlikely to happen.

Chuck Todd: let's check in on the Donald Trump rally. It looks as if they have drawn the same conclusion as the mood has turned very sober. It may be possible but it looks like Beto O'Rourke will be the next president of the United States of America. Let's take a loom at wether Beto O'Rourke will deal with a democratic congress or senate or Republican.

Rachel Maddow: With it clear that Trump has a very slim path to victory, I actually think Republicans in a state like California that is strongly against Trump could benefit their congressional candidates. Right now, we can say, Karin Handel has flipped Lucy McBeth's seat in Georgia. John Kato, Michael McCaul, Pete Olson, Jim Hagedorn, Pete Stauber, Scott Tipton, Elaine Luria, Matthew Cartwright, Don Bacon, and Collin Petersen have all won reelection. In the 9:00 pm states, Iowa is the most exciting with Joni Ernst in a close race and three other close races held by Democrats. The only race in Iowa we can call is Iowa is Randy Festree who beat Steve King in a primary last spring. There is one surprise, Rita Hart is pulling ahead in Iowa-02 which was tossup but could be an early call.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/MK2yr7l
Republicans: 183 (+3, -2)-Democrats: 157 (+2, -3)
Tossup: 22 (19 D, 3 R)

Chuck Todd: Hey, Rachel, we got two big calls to make. Ohio is going to Donald Trump and Trump is eighteen electoral votes closer and Nebraska 2nd District is going to Donald Trump. Trump is over thousands of votes behind Congressman Don Bacon but is still going to win the electoral vote from Nebraska 2nd district. This means Donald Trump is at 220 electoral votes. Chris, do you think this will help the Trump people.

Chris Matthews: Donald Trump is doing very well except he already lost key states of Pennsylvania and Michigan which were key to his victory last time and he still has yet to win Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Iowa or Nevada. Truly, Republicans need to focus on bringing support for Senate and congressional candidates especially in California where there are multiple close races in congressional races.


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on April 17, 2019, 05:22:41 pm
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November 3rd, 2020 11:00 pm
Election Night in America 2020

Chuck Todd: The man above may have cost Donald Trump reelection by jeopardizing the crucial state of Michigan, Colorado and multiple other midwestern states. That was Justin Amash who just conceded the election and thanked his supporters and all his constituents in Michigan who reelected him even after Trump called for a third party to challenge him. By the end of the night, Justin Amash may just end up with around four percent of the vote but he made a huge change to the election and pushed forward Libertarian ideas.

Rachel Maddow: If Trump is going to blame anyone, it will probably be Amash...

Chris Matthews: What about Howard Schultz? Definitely hurt him in the suburban areas that were strong Mitt Romney territory.

Rachel Maddow: If Beto O'Rourke loses then I think Schultz would be the reason and maybe Ro Khanna. Those Schultz never supported Trump, they probably stayed out of the primary or voted Biden, Klobuchar or Weld.

Chuck Todd: It is 11:00 pm now and we have some big calls tonight. First, we have two calls from earlier too close to call states. Iowa has gone to President Trump. President Trump has gone to North Carolina, the closet southern state and was flipping between Beto O'Rourke and Trump. Now some new calls tonight. In California, Beto O'Rourke has won the 55 delegates. In Hawaii, Beto O'Rourke has won the states four delegates while President Trump won Idaho's four electoral college votes. Both Oregon and Washington have also been won by Beto O'Rourke.

Rachel Maddow: Oh my god, Trump still has a chance. My math was wrong earlier. O'Rourke may lose this election, he needs to win at least one more state to win or two if he wins Nevada.

()
Fmr. Congressman Beto O'Rourke/ Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: 263
President Donald Trump/ Vice-President Mike Pence: 245

Chuck Todd: There is also another chance that this election will be tied which will be giving extra power to the Congress. Rachel, Can you update us on the congressional map and the new calls.

Rachel Maddow: Sure, with a number of new states closing we have a ton of new result and results from the last haul of states. Chris Collins has lost reelection, Lauren Underwood has lost reelection, Abby Finkeur has lost reelection and Torres Small lost reelection. Jared Goldin has won reelection, Rita Hart has kept Iowa-02 in Democrats hands, Angie Craig has kept her seat, Tom O'Hallaren has won reelection and Susie Lee has won reelection. After all these new results we have no clear indication if Democrats will win the house or not but they have 216 seats so far which should make Democrats feel better if it is a tied election. The real question is who will win the majority of the states and will there be any defectors if there is a tied election.

Chris Matthews: With Beto's numbers in Wisconsin, I think he will pull it off and Alaska could be closer than expected...

Chuck Todd: Beto is now losing in Wisconsin though?

Chris Matthews: That changes my prediction a bit but I still think the blue wall is rebuilt Now, a tie is definitely a possibility and for the audience, if there is a tie it is broken in the house and the president needs 26 states to vote for them to win and the Senate chooses vice-president.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/4KRLr2V
Democrat: 216 (+3, -6)-Republican: 195 (+6, -3)
Tossup: 23 (6 R, 17 D)

Chuck Todd: Since the Senate will be important let's take a look at the new calls and the Senate map. Jeff Merkley has won a new term. Idaho has been won by Jim Risch. One of the bigger calls now is that Iowa is giving another term for Joni Ernst beating Congresswoman Cindy Axne....

Rachel Maddow: Fox News and CNN have just called the house for the Democrats but we are holding off for now till Democrats reach the magic number. if Fox News is right then the Senate is crucial for Republicans to at least get the vice-presidency.

()
Republican: 49 (+1, -1)-Democrats: 46 (+1, -1)
Tossup: 4 (2 R, 2 D)
Runoffs: 1 (1 R, 0 D)


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: KaiserDave on April 17, 2019, 05:30:12 pm
How has NC flipped and Gardner hasn't lost yet...?


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on April 18, 2019, 05:27:58 pm
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November 3rd, 2020 1:30 am
Election Night in America 2020

Chuck Todd: Stacey Abrams has just given her speech to her crowd. Not really victory or concession speech but it said like she is ready for the runoff and her supporters looked excited. Abrams played into the idea that it will be a tied election by saying quote, "It looks like the vice-president will be chosen in the Senate. We need a Democratic vice-president which will be elected by a democratic senate. I am the last chance to have a democratic senate". We do one more call in the Senate elections which is Dan Sullivan will return to the Senate for six more years. That means Republicans have fifty seats meaning Democrats will have to run the table on the last four too close to call races and win Georgia. We do have two more calls in the presidential race, Arizona will be won by President Trump and Alaska will be won by President Trump giving him fourteen more votes. He could pull off a win and Beto could if they win the next two states but neither are likely to carry both. Chris, what is the house elections looking like?

()
Fmr. Congressman Beto O'Rourke/ Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: 56,098,974 (41.1%)
President Donald Trump/Vice-President Mike Pence: 55,028,965 (40.2%)
Howard Schultz/Fmr. Congressman John Delaney: 16,978,492 (12.4%)
Congressman Justin Amash/Fmr. Tom Campbell: 5,094,372 (3.7%)
Congressman Ro Khanna/Former State Sen. Nina Turner: 3,201,945 (2.3%)
Other: 540,094 (0.3%)

Chris Matthews: We have breaking news, Democrats has retained the house

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This was achieved because Lizzie Fletcher, TJ Cox, Mike Levin, Antonio Delgado, and Collin Allred have all retained their seats saving the majority. Will Hurd, Jamie Beutler Herold, Tom McClinton, and Rodney Davis were all Republicans going back to the house. On the other hand, Katie Hill, Josh Harder, Kenny Marchant, and Andy Kim all lost their reelections meaning a lot of freshmen will not be returning to the house. Another open seat held by Cindy Axne was lost by Democrats. This means in 28 there is a majority Republican representative while 21 states have Democrats majority in the house and in one state it is a tossup where Don Young is in a close ballot

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/5KWMrwV
Democrat: 222 (+4,-10)-Republican: 203 (+10, -4)
Tossup: 10 (2 R, 8 D)

Chuck Todd: That means that Republicans automatically have the advantage in a tied election and it may because of gerrymandering which will be constantly in the news if that is so. Now, we have new updates on the Senate race. Republicans have flipped Michigan with John James delivering an upset win and in Arizona, appointed senator Martha McSally has defended her seat from Mark Kelly who had a close race. This means, Republicans are at 51 seats in the Senate and are in a tight race in three others. This means Republicans have won the majority of seats in the Senate.

()
Republicans: 51 (+2, -1)-Democrats: 46 (+1, -2)
Tossup: 2 (1 R, 1 D)
Runoff: 1 (1 R, 0 D)


Title: Re: One America Divided: 2020 Election
Post by: terp40hitch on April 18, 2019, 05:47:31 pm
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The Aftermath: Tied Election
Election Night in America 2020

Chuck Todd: It is about 1 in the afternoon on November 4th and we still don't have a clear president. Our last two calls made the election a tie meaning in January a new house will be electing the president. Let's take a look at some of the calls of last night. In the house, the Democrats control the majority for two more years losing only sixteen seats to the Republicans and gaining six meaning a net loss of ten. In the Senate, the power remains in the hands of Republicans as they end the night with 52 seats after losing Colorado and North Carolina to Democratic candidates and New Hampshire was able to be won by a Democrat. One state still has a runoff in Georgia where David Perdue is running against a former presidential contender, Stacey Abrams.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/mVxAvEl

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