Talk Elections

I'm surprised there isn't some sort of mega thread yet (that I've seen) on all the shenanigans going on down there.

Anywho, does anyone think civil war is likely at this point?

That possibility is likely if the Army doesn’t cave in. I can see the core Chavista demographic not having revolutionary potential to fully go against Maduro, as well as a disunified opposition failing to unite as a fighting force. For a full parallel, a civil war would definitely attract foreign fighters backed by any and all sides to this conflict, sidelining the native forces for better equipped outsiders.

Another possibility is a full Iran situation. The army declares neutrality and Maduro runs across the sea, leaving bloodshed in the beginning at a minimum. That would require the Cuban Praetorians around Maduro to also leave or be quickly vanquished.

In both situations, I expect Khomeinists in the opposition to take hold of power. With the Opposition core being somewhat reactionary, people could stand for a strongman to take hold, feeding them nostalgia and/or a utopia of sorts. That would include a Venezuela free from the evils of those browner oppressors. Guiadó strikes me as a Venezuelan Banisadr, a democratic conservative who wants for the best of his people, but is weak in actual support from the leaders of the opposition, making it far easier for his sidelining. Really, the only thing for him is his US declared motion to lead the country, and we’ve seen in Libya that the blessing has not positive chances of being able to stick.